Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Trump Signals War Over?🚨Crypto Market Update

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Trump Signals War Over?🚨Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Is the war over and how will this affect markets
0:02
Speaker 1: is what we're going to be covering today.
0:03
Speaker 2: It's going to be a good one. Let's just jump
0:05
Speaker 2: right into it.
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Speaker 1: it today. I want to start off with a clip
0:49
Speaker 1: that of course gets into President Trump talking about what's
0:53
Speaker 1: going on with all these sanctions when it comes to oil.
0:56
Speaker 2: Take a look.
0:56
Speaker 3: We're doing this for the other parts of the world,
0:59
Speaker 3: including countries like China. They get a lot of their
1:03
Speaker 3: oil through the straits, so we're doing this. We have
1:06
Speaker 3: a very good relationship with presidency in China. I'm going
1:09
Speaker 3: there in a short period of time, and we're protecting
1:13
Speaker 3: the world from what these lunatics are trying to do,
1:19
Speaker 3: and very successfully, I might add. We're also waiving certain
1:23
Speaker 3: oil related sanctions to reduce prices, so we have sanctions
1:27
Speaker 3: in some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off
1:30
Speaker 3: till the straightens out. Then who knows, maybe we won't
1:33
Speaker 3: have to put them on. There'll be so much peace.
1:36
Speaker 3: But when the time comes, the US Navy and as
1:38
Speaker 3: partners will escore tankers through the straight if needed. I
1:42
Speaker 3: hope it's not going to be needed, but if it's needed,
1:44
Speaker 3: we'll escort.
1:44
Speaker 2: Them right through.
1:46
Speaker 3: And we have the greatest mind sweeping ability, We have
1:49
Speaker 3: the greatest ships, and all of them we know exactly
1:52
Speaker 3: where their place, will get them out of their very fast.
1:55
Speaker 3: But we hope we don't have any of that. And again,
1:57
Speaker 3: if they do that, if they play that game, we're
1:59
Speaker 3: going to hit I'm at a level that they have
2:01
Speaker 3: not seen before.
2:03
Speaker 1: All right, So there you have Trump doing the announcement yesterday,
2:07
Speaker 1: which of course corrected the markets. It also corrected what
2:11
Speaker 1: was happening in the oil market, where we had seen
2:13
Speaker 1: a spike for West Texas crewed up to one twenty
2:16
Speaker 1: a barrel, which is a pretty critical point, and immediately
2:20
Speaker 1: oil started coming down. Now we're down under the ninety
2:23
Speaker 1: dollars a barrel ring. And of course what he's referencing
2:26
Speaker 1: there is the issue between Russia and India, which was
2:28
Speaker 1: a short term maybe long term the way he was
2:31
Speaker 1: talking about in terms of removing sanctions into India. That's
2:34
Speaker 1: a big deal because it does start to affect the
2:37
Speaker 1: rest of the global oil reserves out there, and it
2:40
Speaker 1: does of course affect how the markets respond to this
2:43
Speaker 1: as well, because if you've got some sort of alignment
2:47
Speaker 1: in the Middle East and you're not dealing with, you know,
2:49
Speaker 1: worldwide shortages, which obviously are very economically driven, then of
2:54
Speaker 1: course this is good for not only the US, but
2:57
Speaker 1: I think for the world of course in general. I
3:00
Speaker 1: want to go to another clip because the real question
3:02
Speaker 1: is is how long will this last? Is this truly
3:05
Speaker 1: the end of the war, or is it just Trump
3:08
Speaker 1: saying this to kind of get markets back on track.
3:10
Speaker 2: Take a look.
3:11
Speaker 4: I think the market is clearly focused on a few things.
3:15
Speaker 4: So yes, of course the end of this would be
3:18
Speaker 4: a major, major thing that that would help cool down prices.
3:21
Speaker 4: Two would also be the release of oil from the
3:24
Speaker 4: strategic reserve. G seven had a meeting yesterday to potentially
3:29
Speaker 4: go over that, and they agreed that they're closely minded
3:33
Speaker 4: situation and ready to act if needed. And then also, lastly,
3:38
Speaker 4: if we start to see the passage through the Strait
3:40
Speaker 4: of Horror moves restart. Trump also hinted that there would
3:43
Speaker 4: be two degree guarantees by the US Navy. He said
3:48
Speaker 4: that in the past, but we haven't actually seen any
3:50
Speaker 4: boats being used to go with any of these tankers
3:53
Speaker 4: through the strait, or if Iran has removed any of
3:57
Speaker 4: their warnings to the ships in the area. Overall, those
4:00
Speaker 4: are the three things I think the market is looking
4:02
Speaker 4: at very closely. But a lot of it is in flux,
4:05
Speaker 4: and we're dealing with huge volatility.
4:08
Speaker 1: All right, huge volatility would agree with that. He did
4:11
Speaker 1: reference though the Strait of Horror moves, and if you
4:14
Speaker 1: look at this chart right here, it kind of shows
4:16
Speaker 1: where we are right now, because between March third and
4:20
Speaker 1: March eighth, almost no traffic. They're coming through the straight
4:24
Speaker 1: And of course yesterday after some of these announcements, we
4:27
Speaker 1: started see movement happening through the strait of horror moves.
4:30
Speaker 1: This might mean good things in general. Now the question
4:33
Speaker 1: is really is going to be what is the long
4:34
Speaker 1: term effect here?
4:35
Speaker 2: All right?
4:36
Speaker 1: So then if you take a look at what Trump said,
4:39
Speaker 1: you kind of look at where the markets are. Right now,
4:41
Speaker 1: you also have Pete Hegseath coming in and almost flip flopping.
4:46
Speaker 1: I don't know if it was a flip flop, but
4:48
Speaker 1: it was definitely a different strategy.
4:50
Speaker 2: He talks about it. Right here.
4:51
Speaker 5: Take a look, today will be yet again our most
4:56
Speaker 5: intense day of strikes inside Iran, the most fighters, the
5:00
Speaker 5: most bombers, the most strikes, intelligence more refined and better
5:06
Speaker 5: than ever.
5:08
Speaker 2: All right.
5:09
Speaker 1: So there you have Hexac referring to after the president
5:13
Speaker 1: that they are still engaged in this. The real question
5:16
Speaker 1: is is how does this play out in the strategy
5:19
Speaker 1: of how Trump deals with these kind of things. Well,
5:22
Speaker 1: Kobe Easy put out their analysis of these processes that really,
5:27
Speaker 1: if you analyze it, these are the things that happened.
5:29
Speaker 1: If you look at how this has occurred and it's
5:32
Speaker 1: happened in more things than just what's going on here
5:34
Speaker 1: in Iran. Step one is the ramp up. Two is
5:38
Speaker 1: where we start to engage in it. Then we get
5:41
Speaker 1: the Friday Night narrative, which is always step three, step,
5:45
Speaker 1: step four, and five we're dealing with the expansion. Then
5:48
Speaker 1: we look at this could last forever. Remember the tariffs,
5:52
Speaker 1: we're kind of the same exact model.
5:54
Speaker 2: Six. Of course, markets.
5:56
Speaker 1: React to all of this, and then you get into
5:58
Speaker 1: seven where he hits a conditional, the escalation. Oh maybe
6:01
Speaker 1: we're not going to do tariffs, and this is what
6:03
Speaker 1: I think happened yesterday. And then we are here on
6:06
Speaker 1: step seven. So keep a lookout. We are in the
6:09
Speaker 1: possible phase of where Trump's strategy is playing out. Whether
6:13
Speaker 1: you think that's a good strategy or not, these are
6:15
Speaker 1: the patterns that we're watching for sure. All right, let's
6:19
Speaker 1: cut to a clip here because this is the NBC
6:21
Speaker 1: maybe explaining this a different way. Take a look.
6:24
Speaker 6: It reminds me of the sort of famous quote that
6:27
Speaker 6: wars have a momentum of their own. With the teriff
6:30
Speaker 6: related policies, the US essentially was fully in control one day.
6:34
Speaker 6: Tariffs could be essentially one hundred percent and the next
6:37
Speaker 6: day they could be deminimous and that was all at
6:40
Speaker 6: the whim of the president, who could change his mind.
6:43
Speaker 6: War doesn't work that way. There are multiple parties engaged
6:46
Speaker 6: in this conflict, not just the US on the offensive,
6:50
Speaker 6: but also Israel, and then of course how Iran responds
6:55
Speaker 6: is not within the full control of the US. And
6:57
Speaker 6: so I think one of the challenges here, or with
7:00
Speaker 6: the sort of blanket taco idea that has permeated markets,
7:05
Speaker 6: is it's not really recognizing that it's possible that the
7:08
Speaker 6: administration may not be in control, and even if they
7:12
Speaker 6: are somewhat in control, I'd say there's a lot of
7:15
Speaker 6: conflicting statements that are coming out. I mean, just an
7:18
Speaker 6: hour after Trump talked about how the war was close
7:23
Speaker 6: to wrapping up, he says, we'll do whatever it takes
7:25
Speaker 6: to crush her on in the future. So, you know,
7:28
Speaker 6: those two things, those are certainly you might have. What
7:31
Speaker 6: I'd say is rhetoric designed to smooth the markets, even
7:35
Speaker 6: though we continue to see the conflict persist throughout the region.
7:40
Speaker 6: Eventually markets will sniff out what the reality is. And
7:43
Speaker 6: given the fact that markets are basically pricing in almost
7:47
Speaker 6: certainty of a swift resolution of this conflict. The possible
7:52
Speaker 6: outcomes look certainly skewed towards it being longer than expected.
7:57
Speaker 1: All right, So there you have it. You have two
7:58
Speaker 1: different and considerations here. One, of course Trump's strategy around Taco,
8:04
Speaker 1: which is where Trump always chickens out on the model
8:07
Speaker 1: of what he's used in tarras. This of course, analysts
8:10
Speaker 1: was really narrowing it down to there's too many working
8:13
Speaker 1: parts here that could potentially influence that, and of course
8:16
Speaker 1: that could mean longer impact on markets in general.
8:20
Speaker 2: Let me know what you guys think.
8:21
Speaker 1: Are we in a position now where maybe the markets
8:24
Speaker 1: will start to waiver back more positively and then wait
8:28
Speaker 1: for more information, or do you feel like now the
8:31
Speaker 1: park the market's kind of sniffed out and said Trump
8:33
Speaker 1: is just doing his normal strategies around this.
8:37
Speaker 2: Let me know what you guys think.
8:38
Speaker 3: Now.
8:38
Speaker 1: I want to go to the polymarket on this, because
8:40
Speaker 1: if you look at the ceasefire odds right now, the
8:44
Speaker 1: May date shows a little bit of movement here from
8:47
Speaker 1: fifty well from its lowest fifty six percent to where
8:50
Speaker 1: it is right now at sixty five percent. So if
8:54
Speaker 1: that is the case, which is higher than the April date,
8:58
Speaker 1: we could still have another sixty days.
9:00
Speaker 2: That would be pretty significant.
9:01
Speaker 1: If that is the case, this is going to be
9:03
Speaker 1: something that we'll be watching very closely because it will
9:05
Speaker 1: have an impact, I think, in general, on how the
9:08
Speaker 1: markets and also how the American economy responds to this.
9:12
Speaker 1: The other thing that responds to these kind of things
9:15
Speaker 1: is the expenditure that you have to deal with. Well,
9:18
Speaker 1: how much are we spending a day on this? We're
9:21
Speaker 1: ten days in. Let's go to Fox News. They talk
9:23
Speaker 1: about it. Take a look.
9:25
Speaker 7: We understand that the war is costing a billion dollars
9:28
Speaker 7: a day, and of course the highest costs are coming
9:31
Speaker 7: from weapons equipment used. You had four hundred Tomahawk missiles
9:35
Speaker 7: already fired that cost two point two million dollars each tomahawk.
9:40
Speaker 7: I know the President changed the use of those Tomahawks
9:44
Speaker 7: saying that he could go with cheaper, different air power.
9:48
Speaker 7: Where are you on all of these costs in terms
9:51
Speaker 7: of this supplemental package? Are you supporting it? When are
9:53
Speaker 7: you expecting that to play out? Because I know the
9:55
Speaker 7: President wants a one and a half trillion dollar defense
9:57
Speaker 7: budget for twenty twenty seven as well.
10:00
Speaker 1: The other thing you got to look at is what
10:02
Speaker 1: are the core elements here. This is epic fury, kind
10:05
Speaker 1: of the scoreboard of it, and this is the Pentagon's
10:08
Speaker 1: preliminary right now it's ten billion, ten days. Then you
10:12
Speaker 1: can kind of see the per second. Then you get
10:14
Speaker 1: into the human costs, which right now pretty heavy for
10:18
Speaker 1: the United States at eight killed, eighteen wounded the Iranian military.
10:22
Speaker 2: I'm not sure how they're getting that data.
10:24
Speaker 1: Then civilians is a big one, which is the concern
10:28
Speaker 1: I have, which is the mix of what that is
10:30
Speaker 1: going to have an impact on the ability for Americans
10:34
Speaker 1: to support this long term. So this is a big
10:36
Speaker 1: deal which will flow into Trump's administration and the likelihood
10:42
Speaker 1: of an impeachment. And many people say, well, what's an
10:45
Speaker 1: impeachment do Well, it's usually just the fact that it
10:47
Speaker 1: disgraces that president. But you look at it right now,
10:50
Speaker 1: it's climbing right here. Before January first of twenty twenty eight,
10:54
Speaker 1: right now, it is hovering right now, went from back
10:58
Speaker 1: on January fifth of this year to where we are
11:01
Speaker 1: right now. Geez, almost twenty percent up, so seventy percent
11:05
Speaker 1: now on Calshi looking at that, So pretty big deal
11:09
Speaker 1: in terms of losing the administration, losing a lot of
11:12
Speaker 1: the legacy that I think Trump is trying to guarantee. Now,
11:15
Speaker 1: the other thing that it affects all of this effects
11:18
Speaker 1: is the economy. Here's Muhammad al Rain who talks about
11:22
Speaker 1: how this could have effect on stocks.
11:24
Speaker 8: Take a look the baseline right now in markets of
11:27
Speaker 8: a temporary and revervouls eight.
11:30
Speaker 2: Is it eighty percent?
11:31
Speaker 9: You're saying you think it's actually a fifty percent correct.
11:33
Speaker 8: There's a bigger question that we see, which is we've
11:37
Speaker 8: got to understand that this global economy is subject to
11:40
Speaker 8: more violent and more frequent shocks, and there's a really
11:43
Speaker 8: good reason for that. We've lost the unifying themes, so
11:47
Speaker 8: we just have to be ready for a lot of
11:49
Speaker 8: volatilities here.
11:51
Speaker 9: And your fifty percent basis is based upon.
11:55
Speaker 8: What it's based simply that while the market nets things out,
11:59
Speaker 8: the economy compound it. So if you put one shock
12:03
Speaker 8: after another after another, you lose financial resilience, you lose
12:07
Speaker 8: human resilience, and your ability to bounce back is less.
12:11
Speaker 8: And we have thrown a lot of this economy in
12:14
Speaker 8: the last twelve months, and right now between the labor market,
12:18
Speaker 8: between the inflation dynamics and between what's happening in the
12:20
Speaker 8: financial markets, there's reasons to be less.
12:23
Speaker 9: Do you think there's any chance that things get worse
12:26
Speaker 9: meaningfully worse in the Middle East?
12:28
Speaker 8: Asymmetrical wars have an unpredictable element to them that you
12:31
Speaker 8: have to take.
12:32
Speaker 2: Seriously, all right.
12:34
Speaker 1: So the point that he took, of course, the asymmetrical
12:38
Speaker 1: war component there, that is something that still is a high,
12:41
Speaker 1: high risk. But I think the other thing that he
12:43
Speaker 1: hit on is critical here, and that is the compounding
12:46
Speaker 1: effect on the economy.
12:47
Speaker 2: And he is.
12:48
Speaker 1: Exactly right, I would agree just in looking at the
12:50
Speaker 1: volumes that we've seen in crypto, the volumes that we've
12:53
Speaker 1: seen on traditional assets, and even the volume of money
12:57
Speaker 1: that is now pretty much sitting on the sideline has
13:00
Speaker 1: been I think indicative of what he's talking about there,
13:03
Speaker 1: which is this kind of compounding effect of all these
13:06
Speaker 1: different volatile issues hitting He goes on to talk about
13:10
Speaker 1: the strategy how Trump gets out of this.
13:13
Speaker 2: Here's what he had to say.
13:14
Speaker 9: Whether he could look at what's happening and say, you
13:17
Speaker 9: know what, I wanted to do this for two or
13:19
Speaker 9: three weeks or four weeks. There's still stuff I want
13:22
Speaker 9: to do on the ground. But you know what, I
13:24
Speaker 9: can't have it this way, and politically it's going to
13:27
Speaker 9: be bad for me, it's going to be bad for Republicans.
13:29
Speaker 9: We're going to the midterms. I can't have oil prices
13:31
Speaker 9: at these numbers. And then he steps away. What do
13:34
Speaker 9: you think the chances are that that happens.
13:36
Speaker 8: That's certainly possible, but he also needs to convince two
13:39
Speaker 8: other parties to step away, Israel and Iran, and they
13:43
Speaker 8: have different agendas. At this point, we've got to stop
13:46
Speaker 8: thinking oil supplies and supply chains are like an on
13:51
Speaker 8: off switch. You contented back on that point is what's
13:55
Speaker 8: the timeframe for when this is like, oh boy, this
13:57
Speaker 8: is it is weeks and months. It's not.
14:01
Speaker 2: All right.
14:01
Speaker 1: So to his point is that, yes, even though Trump
14:05
Speaker 1: may say, hey, listen, we've done what we can over there,
14:08
Speaker 1: maybe we've secured the region, I think the real question
14:11
Speaker 1: is is how does Israel and Iran truly en this
14:14
Speaker 1: if they in fact do, and whether or not the
14:17
Speaker 1: United States is willing to step up and support Israel
14:20
Speaker 1: in their continued efforts if in fact they go that route.
14:22
Speaker 1: So point being is is that if this lags on
14:25
Speaker 1: much longer. It will have a global effect and it
14:28
Speaker 1: will continue to be an issue on not only oil
14:31
Speaker 1: prices and energy prices, but what we will see is
14:34
Speaker 1: the kind of the rippling effect that's going to go
14:37
Speaker 1: into the rest of the markets. So let's take a
14:39
Speaker 1: look quickly at how this lines up for not only
14:42
Speaker 1: this administration, but also how the Senate may play out
14:45
Speaker 1: in this Which party is going to win the Senate
14:47
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. Right now, the Democrats are climbing
14:50
Speaker 1: dramatically from forty percent just a few days ago to
14:53
Speaker 1: where they're holding now at forty seven percent. This is
14:57
Speaker 1: pretty much coin toss right now for the Senate. So
14:59
Speaker 1: if they lose the Senate, meaning Republicans, this could put
15:02
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on this administration to get absolutely
15:04
Speaker 1: nothing done in gridline. May people will say that sometimes
15:07
Speaker 1: that's better for crypto is you're dealing with situations where
15:11
Speaker 1: the government isn't out.
15:12
Speaker 2: There doing things.
15:14
Speaker 1: If you look at one of the things that they're
15:15
Speaker 1: considering right now is how is this administration going to
15:20
Speaker 1: deal with the midterms if in fact they lose it.
15:23
Speaker 6: Take a look will clarity even pass We're in March
15:27
Speaker 6: right now.
15:28
Speaker 9: A lot of folks that get this thing. Doesn't pass
15:30
Speaker 9: before midterms, we're not going to get it.
15:32
Speaker 7: What are your views.
15:33
Speaker 10: I'm suspecting that if it isn't passed by Easter, we
15:36
Speaker 10: might not get it. This was supposed to have been
15:39
Speaker 10: passed last year, still hasn't happened, and due to this
15:42
Speaker 10: impass on the stable coin yield issue, it's uncertain. The
15:46
Speaker 10: prediction markets are betting that it will pass. I also agree.
15:50
Speaker 10: I believe it will before Labor Day, certainly before the midterms.
15:55
Speaker 10: If Trump loses the midterms, meaning if the House goes
15:58
Speaker 10: Democrat then and the stable coin bill, the Clarity Act
16:02
Speaker 10: could be dead, all right.
16:05
Speaker 1: So there you have it, guys. We are on a
16:07
Speaker 1: tight timeline here. If you look at the current polymarket
16:11
Speaker 1: on Clarity, it is at around seventy percent still but
16:15
Speaker 1: holding there right now, not getting much movement. So I
16:18
Speaker 1: think this is an imperative issue going forward. And I
16:23
Speaker 1: would agree I think if this does not get done
16:26
Speaker 1: before midterms, because I do think that the Republicans lose
16:29
Speaker 1: the midterms at least based on what we know today now,
16:32
Speaker 1: could that change?
16:33
Speaker 2: Who knows.
16:34
Speaker 1: But the real thing is is if that happens and
16:36
Speaker 1: we don't have stable coin or excuse me, the Clarity
16:38
Speaker 1: Act in place.
16:40
Speaker 2: I do agree.
16:41
Speaker 1: I think at that point it would be dead because
16:43
Speaker 1: at that point just the problem of being able to
16:46
Speaker 1: get something through the House and Senate would be almost impossible.
16:49
Speaker 1: We put out a poll here says which would mark
16:51
Speaker 1: which event would mark the bottom of crypto and the
16:54
Speaker 1: next pump. Everybody seems to be on point right here,
16:58
Speaker 1: well with at least six percent of you which says
17:01
Speaker 1: clarity is finally done and that is a big one
17:04
Speaker 1: right there. Some people, though, still pushing for more pain
17:08
Speaker 1: ahead right now, so still some embarrassed indicators in the
17:13
Speaker 1: in the market for sure. Listen, We're gona be covering
17:16
Speaker 1: this in a lot more this week, so make sure
17:18
Speaker 1: it stay tuned. If you like this video, like and subscribe,
17:27
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17:31
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