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Transcript

Felix Prehn - JPMorgan: “BUY THE DIP” Now! + Stock Market News 21 August 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: While everyone's freaking out about the dip and the crash and telling you to sell everything, jp Morgan sent a note to its institutional customers.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Just that says buy the dip.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: And I'm not joking, I've got the full note.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: There it is on the screen.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: How do we find these notes?
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Well, we've got good noses around here.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: We still got this kind of stuff out.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: This is Hugh, one of our head researchers, and literally it says quick thoughts on yesterday.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: It's a buy the dip opportunity, and then it gets really boring and detailed.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: As these notes to generally get, I was thinking of sharing the whole thing with you.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I think actually it'll just put you to sleep, so we're not going to bother, but what I'm going to do instead is walk you through the reasons why they're bullish.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: It mentions Jackson Hole, why everyone's talking about that again, and then it doesn't matter at all.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: It's like zero impact on your portfolio, and I'm going to give you instead some bonus ideas of things we can actually buy right now, because there's always something we can buy right now and we can make money out of.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: That sounds good to you.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Smash the you know what?
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: And point number one this is earnings growth by sector right.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: And if you look at infotech as an IT.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Well, look at the earnings growth in the US, in Europe, in Japan, emerging markets, outstanding stellar, right?
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: We're looking at an average sort of, say, 25% profit growth across the whole freaking sector, and this includes old companies who've been around for decades, right?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: So does that scream like the top of the market to you?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: No, these guys are actually making more money.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Why, ai is actually allowing them to make more money.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: And then you've got the next thing here the proportion of companies beating on earnings, as in delivering more profits than expected, is well above historical average in the US and Europe.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: And Kat wants to step on the keyboard.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: And in the US, yeah, our average is here, we're up there, right?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: That data was from Deutsche Bank, by the way.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Again, doesn't exactly scream.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: It's all over.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: And then we've got Citadel.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Citadel are basically the people who make the market.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: If you're a Robinhood customer, all your orders go through them.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: A lot of brokerages run all their orders through them.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: These are like the goats of Wall Street.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: We may not like them, but we have to live with them because that's basically who they are.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Look at this September is historically the weakest month of the year since 1928.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: They provide a chart for that very helpfully.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Normally you start the month at around 100 and you end the month about 2% lower On average every year for the last 100 years.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: On top of that, they're saying the algo funds, the CTAs, they're maxed out, they're not going to be doing any buying.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Retail has stopped buying after August.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: That's usually when retail gets tired.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I guess your vacations are more expensive than you thought.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Corporate buybacks it peaks in August and then we come back into the blackout window so that money isn't buying stocks anymore going into September.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Retail options volume has peaked in July.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Expect a decline there in bullishness and earnings upgrades are the highest since 2021.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good thing.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: And volatility, which means usually more downs than ups, historically rises in September.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: And then they say this little sentence here Downside hedges, increasingly timely amid negative seasonality.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: What are they saying?
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: They're saying go and buy yourself some insurance, don't just run out and sell everything like a panicked chicken.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: So how do you get yourself some insurance?
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Well, first of all, let me just hammer home the point.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: The NASDAQ is not immune from September blues either.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: That is September and, as you can see, over the last 10 years or so, it hasn't been a pretty month.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So my question to you is this Do you want to learn how to set up cheap hedges?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: What are cheap hedges?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Hedges are insurance.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: It's like car insurance.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: It's like an airbag in the car.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: It protects your portfolio, protects your money, protects your retirement.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Do you want to learn how to do that?
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you only if enough people want to.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: So if 100 of you write insurance in the comments at least 100, I will put together a bonus document that will teach you precisely, step by step, how to buy cheap insurance right now, and I'll send that out as a bonus to the live training tomorrow, which is free too, by the way.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: We give so much away.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: It's amazing how much information and how much education we give away every day.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: You just got to pay attention.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So how do you access this?
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Well, first thing is you write insurance in the comments and then you claim your free seat at felixfriendsorg slash training.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: The link is also in the description, you don't even have to type it.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: And then you show up and you stay for the whole training, because I only give bonuses to people who actually stay for the whole training.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Because you don't stay for the whole training, you don't learn anything.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: You can't learn how to manage your money in five minutes.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: You need to give it a little bit of time.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: How long is the training?
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: About an hour and a half.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: It's free.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: It'll motivate the heck out of you.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: It'll show you the core principles that Wall Street uses to do what To pick the brinners and then keep your profits.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: And this is one of these keep your profits moments.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: And some people will and some people won't.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: The people who will will be happy.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: The people who won't, well, they're going to get stressed.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Look at my comment section.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: The last couple of the last two days, right, look at all that stress, all that anxiety in the comments, whereas days before everybody was happy.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of you are happy and I don't mind it.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: I understand that it's just like emotional because people are investing on hope that things will just keep going up.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: But what if they don't?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: What's your plan?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: So I always say to people if you don't have a plan that you can explain to a five-year-old, then it isn't a plan because it isn't really replicable.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So get my plan.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I learned it wasn't my plan.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Actually, I learned it from my mentors.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: We all learn from people.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash training.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Great, grab that for you.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Now Let me give you a little bit of hopium here, though, because there is a reason why I'm not totally bearish on tech.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So Infotech.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Right now, mutual funds are running the biggest underweight in tech, says Goldman Sachs.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: They just don't have enough exposure to it.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: They don't own enough Infotech.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: So if you're invested in mutual funds, you're probably underperforming the market this year because it's been mostly tech that's driving it.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's been a lot of tech that's driving it, and they're more in this sort of industrial sector, which is sort of a mid-market thing.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Healthcare, which is sort of a we think the world's going to end type investment.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: They are some good place their energy.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I'm in those sectors too, but we're, of course, also in infotech.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: So there is a possibility that these guys are going to buy a ton of tech right, and they tend to be late.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't worry about them being late.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: They tend to be late.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Now, who wants bonus time?
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Should we do some bonus time?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, here's an idea Don't just blindly run out and buy stuff that I'm talking about, by the way.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: If you do, you're a Muppet, you're not learning anything, and I see, I literally I do review videos of some random stock and I say, yeah, it's a bit risky, it's actually very risky, maybe I'll wait a little bit.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: And then someone writes I put 10% of my money into the stock and it's now down 40%.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, that's why we're running the live training tomorrow.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: So please, please, please, learn, please, please, be responsible, please stop gambling.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: So what's exciting about this one here?
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: This is lv and m and h louis vitton, we nc.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Um brilliant business.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Because they sell you cheap leather goods and cheap perfumes and scarves and alcohol, all with very, very high margins.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: And because they're luxury goods, their margins are insanely high and they make you queue in the street outside their shop.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So you get the privilege of buying something.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: It's an extraordinary model, but people fall for it, so good on them.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: So I like owning it.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: So what are we looking at here?
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Well, we're looking at a pattern which is the sort of classic zigzag pattern that we look for.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: I want to call it the heartbeat pattern.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: And if you connected that sort of pattern here, you see the stock is consolidating, it's going sideways.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: And there's a second little tip here for you.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: You might want to write this down.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: See that yellow line there.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: That's the 50-day moving average line and that was falling right.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: This stock's done horribly.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Well, china overstock, luxury, spending down.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I guess Russian demand might be less and Asian demand less and so on.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: But look at that line.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Now it's flattening out, can you see that?
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: And it's starting just a little bit to peak over the garden fence or over its bushy mustache this bushy mustache, and that is sort of the early moment where we start to pay attention.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Right now this is a speculative trader setup.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: This is very high risk Right now.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: This is very high risk.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to buy it yet because I'm not a high risk kind of a guy.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I'm the kind of guy who likes his money and I don't like giving it up.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: But that blue line there is the 150-day moving average line and that is very close.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: That sits only about what 8% higher or something.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: And as we get into that proximity it becomes more of an investable idea, because we kind of want to wait for this breakout here, we want the confirmation.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: At that point to me this becomes very interesting because it's a great business.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: People will always pay lots and lots of money for handbags, and I mean ask your wife.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: If you are a woman, confirm it please.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: We don't understand it.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's insecurity.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I've offended all of the three women who tune in, because why do you think you need a $5,000 or $10,000 piece of dead skin, right?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I don't really get it.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: And their perfume is.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I used to supply perfume companies with alcohol.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: It's 99% alcohol and a little bit of some sort of perfume essence somewhere.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: So it's all synthetic, it's all you know.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Lipstick on a pig, if you ask me.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: So I don't really go for this sort of stuff.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: But you know, if you do good on you and we'll keep making money out of you.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So that was LVMH.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: That's one idea.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Do you want another idea?
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: This one's a little bit more complicated.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Do you want it?
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the comments.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: If you don't, then run away.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Look what we have here.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I write gold, ticker symbol GLD.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Yes, I know, I know it's synthetic gold and some of the gold crowd is allergic to that and all that.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I like the physical stuff too, but it's a little easier to trade the non-physical stuff.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: What have we got here?
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Well, we've got a stock that is moving in our trademark heartbeat pattern sort of thing, and it's going nowhere.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Now it's gold, it's not a stock, but it's sort of the same thing, and that is again consolidation.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I often call it a tired pattern.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: It's a tired stock, right and a beautiful run up.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: We made a lot of money out of gold miners, which I've all sold now.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: So what's the setup here?
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Well, you could, of course, just buy it and hope that it's going to go up, but it hasn't actually done all that well in the last couple of months.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: But and this is why I said it's a bit more complicated there's a little thing on the screen here which is called IV percent.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: It's up there.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: It says 15.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: And for those of you who know a thing or two about options and if you don't bear with me, I'll teach you a thing or two about options that is, the price of an option.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Is 15 a high?
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Well, it goes from zero to 100.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: So you answer that question yourself 15, obviously it's pretty low.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: So what does that therefore mean?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you that on a chart.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: So gold volatility is this chart here, and it's gone from all the way up there, where options were very expensive, to now down here where they're pretty cheap.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So I'm not telling you to buy it.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying you want to.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's going to go up it hasn't broken out yet but one way to participate in this could be to simply, you know, buy a call option or something like that, some sort of thing, where you're a buyer of options because where the chart go, because if it does break out, you'll benefit quite nicely from that.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Obviously not telling you what to do.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: You're going to come to your own conclusion and so on, but I'm just saying it's the sort of stuff that we look for and it just requires a little bit of smarts Actually, not smarts, skill and you know what Skills can be learned.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Any skill can be learned, and if you do, you make better decisions, you find better opportunities, you'll likely make more money.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Now, what about Jackson and his hole?
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Well, jackson Hole, the Fed meeting is a load of hogwash, complete waste of life.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Why Go into Trade Vision?
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: There's a link down below.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Click on the green little logo in the top right.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: It says upcoming events here.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Click on that and now scroll down and see when is the Fed meeting.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Fed interest rate decision is on September 17th.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: What is the Fed bas Fed interest rate decision is on September 17th.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: What is the Fed basing their decision on?
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: It's two things, right.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: It's inflation and it's basically unemployment.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: It's those two things.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: So why is today the Jackson whole event a waste of life?
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Because they make this decision on september 17th, but the inflation rate comes out on september 11th.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: The unemployment rate comes out on september 5th.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: So today, as I'm recording this, it's aug 21, which means we need to wait two more weeks to get the unemployment data and three more weeks to get the inflation data.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So what are they possibly going to tell you today?
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: That's new.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: You know what they're going to say to you.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Our decision on interest rates will be data dependent.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: And you can watch hours and hours and hours of YouTube and CNBC on that drivel, but they'll tell you nothing.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: And you can watch hours and hours and hours of YouTube and CNBC on that drivel, but they'll tell you nothing.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: It's a complete non-event.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: And Wall Street says the same thing.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: They're all saying don't pay any attention.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Let's see if JP Morgan caught on to that.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Probably there are some smart people in there.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Jackson Hole Expected liver's remarks.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Both foreign exchange and rates test tell us.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: No one is pricing a significant move stemming from the event, Given that the Fed's decision oh, here we go.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Is dependent on September 5th jobs data and September 11th CPI projection hole is shaping up to be inconsequential.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much, jp Morgan.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: You're getting something right for once.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, forget about it.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Move on with your life.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Don't give it any of your attention whatsoever and instead focus on actually learning.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: So what do you want you to do?
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Well, it's really up to you if you want to actually learn, but what I would suggest you do is you grab your free seat for the live training on Saturday.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: You learn how to find breakout stocks in all market conditions.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we always make money in.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Doesn't matter which sector Tech can explode tomorrow, we'll still find a way to make money and how we keep our gains.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Learn that.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: That's the path to real freedom.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: It's how to keep the money.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So how do you do that?
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: You go to FelixFriendscom training.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: You grab yourself a seat, tell your friends about it, tell your golden retrievers about it and join us.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: We'll have some fun and I thank you for watching.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I thank you for tuning in and I wish you a tremendous day.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: See you Saturday.