Latest / Foul Territory / Ken Rosenthal’s trade szn update: AL East moves, D’Backs decisions

Transcript

Ken Rosenthal’s trade szn update: AL East moves, D’Backs decisions · Foul Territory

0:00
Speaker 1: And given the voluntility of relievers in general, you make
0:04
Speaker 1: this trade every day of the week, in my opinion.
0:06
Speaker 1: For the thirty seventh tick in the draft.
0:14
Speaker 2: Let's hit inside Scoup with FT senior insider Ken Rosenthal.
0:17
Speaker 2: Happy Friday, Ken, And sometimes the headline just writes itself.
0:20
Speaker 2: For the top of our segment, we'll go right to
0:22
Speaker 2: the notes column released this morning in The Athletic. I
0:24
Speaker 2: advise everyone to check it out, but it starts with
0:28
Speaker 2: why an Alex Bregman trade makes no sense for the
0:33
Speaker 2: Red Sox? Why Ken, It.
0:36
Speaker 1: Actually makes no sense, period, And I'll go through it here.
0:38
Speaker 1: There's been some talk about this various websites, just people
0:42
Speaker 1: kind of speculating about the possibility if the Red Sox
0:45
Speaker 1: fall out trading Bregman. One, they're not falling out. They've
0:50
Speaker 1: got a seven game winning streak going, they've holding or
0:52
Speaker 1: they're currently holding the third wildcard spot. And yeah, they've
0:56
Speaker 1: got a tough schedule coming out of the break, but
0:59
Speaker 1: in the American League with so many teams kind of
1:02
Speaker 1: in a mediocre place, I don't see them falling out,
1:04
Speaker 1: even if they go say five and ten. The other
1:07
Speaker 1: issue here is his contract, and as you guys know,
1:11
Speaker 1: it's a three year, one hundred and twenty million dollar deal.
1:14
Speaker 1: This is the first year. He can opt out after
1:16
Speaker 1: this year. He can opt out after next year. So
1:19
Speaker 1: if you trade him to a team, they're going to
1:22
Speaker 1: take on about thirteen million dollars in salary and they're
1:25
Speaker 1: gonna think, Okay, that's okay if he opts out, because
1:29
Speaker 1: if he opts out, we're not doe for that forty
1:31
Speaker 1: million or maybe the other forty million on top of that, Well,
1:34
Speaker 1: there's no guarantee that he is going to opt out.
1:37
Speaker 1: What if he blows out his knee or something else
1:40
Speaker 1: happens from an injury perspective that keeps him out for
1:43
Speaker 1: part of next year as well as the rest of
1:45
Speaker 1: this year, then you don't want to be paying forty million.
1:47
Speaker 1: And that's actually the Red Sox position right now, the
1:50
Speaker 1: situation that they're in that could happen. Gregman's coming off
1:54
Speaker 1: the IL without a rehab assignment. I'm not predicting an
1:57
Speaker 1: injury or anything like that, but there is a non
1:59
Speaker 1: zero telling that he does get hurt. So for all
2:03
Speaker 1: those reasons, and the other reason being what is in
2:07
Speaker 1: it for the Red Sox, they want Alan to their
2:10
Speaker 1: team they want to re sign him. So it just
2:14
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to add up in any way at all.
2:17
Speaker 1: And the other thing too, I'll keep betching other things.
2:20
Speaker 1: What are you getting back If you're sending thirteen million
2:24
Speaker 1: along with Alex Bregman, you've got to pay that if
2:26
Speaker 1: you're a team that's taking him, and even if you're
2:28
Speaker 1: assuming he's going to opt out, you're gambling on that. Well,
2:32
Speaker 1: a team taking on thirteen million at the deadline is
2:34
Speaker 1: not going to give up much. If you want, and
2:37
Speaker 1: you're the Red Sox, you can contribute money and send
2:40
Speaker 1: some money along, but then what are you doing. You're
2:42
Speaker 1: getting a better prospect package. They don't need any more prospects.
2:45
Speaker 3: They're good.
2:47
Speaker 1: So I just don't see the logic of this at all.
2:49
Speaker 1: And I know it's the time of year where we
2:51
Speaker 1: all speculate and we all kind of dream up ideas,
2:54
Speaker 1: but this one to me seems like a distant dream
2:58
Speaker 1: at best.
3:00
Speaker 3: If they were out of it. You look at that roster,
3:02
Speaker 3: because I was just at Fenway. I just talked about
3:05
Speaker 3: it yesterday. It's Trevor's story and Alex Bregman and a
3:09
Speaker 3: bunch of kids from you know high school like it
3:13
Speaker 3: is a young team or inexperienced team like at Rome.
3:16
Speaker 3: Gonzalez is a little bit older, but not he's not ancient.
3:20
Speaker 3: Do the team still look at that as like with
3:23
Speaker 3: the Red Sox still look at that as like, Hey,
3:25
Speaker 3: this is a guy who's won a lot. He can
3:27
Speaker 3: teach our young guys how to win. And if that's
3:30
Speaker 3: the case, does that increase his opportunity to maybe re
3:34
Speaker 3: up or guarantee more of that contract this offseason? Not
3:39
Speaker 3: saying before free agency. I'm not saying he's gonna skip
3:41
Speaker 3: free agency, but the Red Sox will be like, hey,
3:43
Speaker 3: your value is huge here because of this the mentoring part.
3:49
Speaker 1: Eric. That's why they signed him in the first place.
3:51
Speaker 1: They knew they had these kids coming and they wanted
3:53
Speaker 1: Bregman to serve in that leadership role. And we have
3:56
Speaker 1: another story on The Athletic Today by Jen McCaffrey who
3:59
Speaker 1: covers the Red soixe for us about just the impact
4:03
Speaker 1: Gregman has made on players as individuals and as a collective.
4:07
Speaker 1: This guy is all about baseball all the time. He
4:10
Speaker 1: sees things on the field, he imparts that wisdom to
4:14
Speaker 1: his teammates. So yes, they're going to want to keep him,
4:18
Speaker 1: and they're going to want to keep him for just
4:19
Speaker 1: the reasons you stated. They don't have many established veterans
4:23
Speaker 1: on their team, and not only is he an established veteran,
4:26
Speaker 1: he brings that extra intangible, that knowledge of the game,
4:30
Speaker 1: that savviness that frankly is in short supply today. So
4:34
Speaker 1: I don't know how it gets done, if it gets done,
4:38
Speaker 1: when it gets done, but it's something the Red Sox
4:40
Speaker 1: certainly are going to pursue.
4:43
Speaker 4: I want to skip to the Yankees here a little bit.
4:46
Speaker 4: Excuse me, third base. I always thought Josh Chisholm should
4:52
Speaker 4: have been a second basement at the end of the day.
4:54
Speaker 4: I mean that was my opinion. Sorry, got something stuck
4:58
Speaker 4: in my bad.
5:00
Speaker 2: You want to make a call to the bullpen. I'm here,
5:02
Speaker 2: I'm Scott right, thank you, thank you. Okay, Ken, I
5:04
Speaker 2: know what he was going to ask about. The Yankees,
5:06
Speaker 2: Duke now currently have a hole at third base, and
5:09
Speaker 2: my friend who used to play the position, wants to
5:11
Speaker 2: know who you think they could scoop up around the
5:13
Speaker 2: trade deadline to fill now a very vacant third base
5:17
Speaker 2: hole now that Chazz is back to second, how'd I
5:19
Speaker 2: do he did great, that's good. He clear his throat.
5:22
Speaker 1: I nominate Todd Frasier, but no, Curiously, I talked about
5:27
Speaker 1: this a little bit in the notes Calm as well.
5:29
Speaker 1: So with DJ Lemayhew, they just released him and they
5:33
Speaker 1: owe him twenty two million dollars still. To me, that
5:37
Speaker 1: would sort of preclude them getting a guy who has
5:39
Speaker 1: a lot of money left on his deal. They're gonna
5:42
Speaker 1: need to address other areas as well, pitching, starting in relief.
5:46
Speaker 1: So when you talk about Noan Ornado who has plenty
5:49
Speaker 1: of money left on his deal, when you're talking about
5:51
Speaker 1: Ryan McMahon, who has a couple of years left on
5:53
Speaker 1: his deal, that doesn't make as much sense to me
5:56
Speaker 1: from the Yankees' perspective as a guy like Ajohano sare As,
6:00
Speaker 1: who is a potential free agent. He would be owed
6:03
Speaker 1: about five million at the deadline, if I'm not mistaken,
6:05
Speaker 1: And it just seems to me, when you've got so
6:08
Speaker 1: many different holes to fill in future commitments as well,
6:12
Speaker 1: that you don't want to be tying it up in
6:14
Speaker 1: guys who have money coming. I might be wrong about that.
6:17
Speaker 1: Maybe the Yankees just say the heck with it, but
6:20
Speaker 1: it just seems to me a guy likes Suarez doesn't
6:22
Speaker 1: have to be him, but someone who's a potential free
6:24
Speaker 1: agent that would be a better fit.
6:28
Speaker 3: How about ca Brian Hayes. And I say that, and
6:32
Speaker 3: I get it, people are gonna be like, you're an idiot.
6:34
Speaker 3: We don't want k Brian Hayes. But so much of
6:38
Speaker 3: what was talked about the Yankees was defense. He would
6:42
Speaker 3: add that defense. He would lock down the number nine
6:45
Speaker 3: spot in the lineup. I get that. Maybe he has
6:48
Speaker 3: an uptick when he's in a winning situation. Is that
6:52
Speaker 3: a possibility? I get it, though it's the same as
6:54
Speaker 3: what you're saying. Already has a contract, but it's not
6:57
Speaker 3: that big.
6:58
Speaker 1: Right his deal is I'm not sure exactly if the
7:01
Speaker 1: numbers are eric, but it's not as lucrative as the others,
7:04
Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. And Cabrian Hayes, yes, he would
7:08
Speaker 1: give something to the Yankees that they badly need, and
7:11
Speaker 1: that's defensive improvement. They have been better defensively this year
7:15
Speaker 1: and they'll be better now with Jazz at second. They
7:18
Speaker 1: had him out of position, let's face it, and he
7:20
Speaker 1: wasn't bad at third base, but DJ was at second.
7:23
Speaker 1: DJ was not as mobile as he once was, so
7:26
Speaker 1: it wasn't the ideal defensive scenario. Cabrian Hayes does fit
7:30
Speaker 1: from that perspective, and I would expect that if he
7:32
Speaker 1: got out of Pittsburgh he'd be a better offensive player.
7:35
Speaker 1: So dealing with the Pirates not always easy. And I'm
7:40
Speaker 1: not sure what they'd be looking for from the Yankees
7:42
Speaker 1: because what they need Pittsburgh is a group of young
7:46
Speaker 1: hitters to support the young pitching that they have. Can
7:48
Speaker 1: the Yankees provide that? I don't know. You're not getting
7:52
Speaker 1: Jason Domingez for Cabrian Hayes. They don't have many other
7:57
Speaker 1: young hitters. I guess Spencer Jones would be one. He's
8:00
Speaker 1: in the minors. He's doing okay. But I don't know
8:03
Speaker 1: that you do that if you're the Yankees either, So
8:05
Speaker 1: that to me would be more of the issue finding
8:07
Speaker 1: the match.
8:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kene, in my mind, I mean I'm the more
8:11
Speaker 2: cynical one. Especially with the Pirates. They might be saying, hey,
8:14
Speaker 2: we're not making as much money as we thought this year,
8:16
Speaker 2: let's clear some books. And we've now had two years
8:19
Speaker 2: in a row of key Brian Hayes not hitting up
8:22
Speaker 2: to par. Where it might change with the Yanks. I
8:24
Speaker 2: looked up the contract for you, so it was seven
8:27
Speaker 2: years eighty mili and Kratz did mention it was front loaded,
8:31
Speaker 2: which is true. He mentioned that, I think a day
8:32
Speaker 2: or two ago. So this year he's making seven twenty
8:35
Speaker 2: twenty six, he's making seven, twenty seven, he's making seven
8:38
Speaker 2: twenty eight, eight twenty nine, he's making eight. And then
8:41
Speaker 2: there's a club option, not at all prohibited.
8:44
Speaker 1: That's not sixty million, do it, Ryan McMahon or whatever
8:48
Speaker 1: Arnatto is doing in like the thirties, if I'm not mistaken.
8:50
Speaker 1: So that's a different deal entirely. In fact, eight seven
8:53
Speaker 1: eight million for a player, it's almost utility player money.
8:56
Speaker 1: Not quite that, but certainly reasonable. So the money, I
9:00
Speaker 1: don't know that would stop the Yankees. The quality of
9:03
Speaker 1: the player might, and the offense is a question. And
9:07
Speaker 1: let's face it, they don't have to have a bopper
9:10
Speaker 1: at third base, but they want a competent offensive player,
9:13
Speaker 1: and maybe with Cabrian Hayese, you decide, okay, the total package,
9:17
Speaker 1: we get a really really good defensive player, a goal
9:21
Speaker 1: glove type third baseman, and we'll settle for less offensively.
9:25
Speaker 1: That's kind of how they see Volpi right now, quite frankly,
9:28
Speaker 1: and I don't know how many of those guys you want,
9:31
Speaker 1: but it's an interesting thought.
9:32
Speaker 2: For sure.
9:34
Speaker 4: The d Backs are already out without Jordan Montgomery and
9:39
Speaker 4: Cormyn Burns. If they're looking to sell, or there are
9:41
Speaker 4: a couple guys that are not likely to go just
9:45
Speaker 4: because of their pitching depth. What do you think about
9:47
Speaker 4: that situation during the trade deadline.
9:50
Speaker 1: They have a couple of potential free agents who are
9:52
Speaker 1: going to attract attention if the Diamondbacks want to move,
9:56
Speaker 1: and that's still an open question. They have all of
10:00
Speaker 1: these bullpen injuries, all of these rotation injuries. It seems
10:03
Speaker 1: like it's a Star Cross season for them and it's
10:06
Speaker 1: not going to go the way they wanted to go.
10:08
Speaker 1: But Mike Key's in their general managers and pretty adamant
10:11
Speaker 1: about saying I want to buy, I do not want
10:14
Speaker 1: to sell. They have never rebuilt under Hazen. It's just
10:17
Speaker 1: not something he is comfortable doing. So if they end
10:21
Speaker 1: up trading one of the starters, and it would be one,
10:24
Speaker 1: from what I understand, they would not trade both because
10:26
Speaker 1: then they'd have a difficult time getting through the season.
10:29
Speaker 1: Gallen better in his last two starts probably would get
10:32
Speaker 1: more attention than Kelly, who is older thirty six. Granted
10:36
Speaker 1: it's a rental and he's a very consistent pitcher, but
10:39
Speaker 1: Gallon is the sexier name in that case. Yes, he'd
10:43
Speaker 1: be in high demand, and rightly so. He's Zach Gallan.
10:46
Speaker 1: He's been a cy young finalist Meryl Kelly, though, is
10:49
Speaker 1: interesting and I didn't know this until somebody pointed it
10:51
Speaker 1: out to me yesterday. He's thirty six and in his
10:54
Speaker 1: last start against the Padres he threw four of the
10:57
Speaker 1: five hardest pitches of his career. So this stuff is intact,
11:01
Speaker 1: maybe even ticking upward even as he gets older.
11:06
Speaker 2: Wow. All right, let's finish with this topic. The Rays
11:09
Speaker 2: in the Ools actually did make a real trade for
11:12
Speaker 2: a player that could be a contributor in a playoff
11:15
Speaker 2: game in a high leverage spot. Let's wipe away what
11:17
Speaker 2: happened for Brian Baker in his first start of hours
11:20
Speaker 2: into finding out that he ended up with a new team.
11:23
Speaker 2: I want to get your thoughts here. I know you
11:24
Speaker 2: touched on it on fair Territory yesterday, but then in
11:26
Speaker 2: your notes, Calum, it sounds like you learned a little
11:28
Speaker 2: bit more about how this went down, why it was
11:31
Speaker 2: this particular pick, and why the Rays were so interested
11:34
Speaker 2: in Brian Baker. I'm going to give you one more
11:36
Speaker 2: layer to add ken. I don't know if you caught
11:38
Speaker 2: the comments that we just talked about with Michaelias saying, yeah,
11:41
Speaker 2: we weren't going to trade him, but if you temp
11:43
Speaker 2: me with a pick, I'm in.
11:45
Speaker 1: Well, from Michael Elias's perspective, you've got a reliever with
11:49
Speaker 1: three additional years of control. He is a good reliever.
11:53
Speaker 1: I don't know that he's a great reliever, and given
11:55
Speaker 1: the volatility of relievers in general, you make this trade
11:59
Speaker 1: every day week. In my opinion, for the thirty seventh
12:02
Speaker 1: pick in the draft gives the Orioles ticks nineteen thirty,
12:06
Speaker 1: thirty one, and thirty seven, and the Rays had two
12:10
Speaker 1: competitive balance A round picks thirty seven and forty two.
12:14
Speaker 1: They couldn't trade forty two because while these picks are
12:17
Speaker 1: the only ones that can be traded the competitive balance picks,
12:20
Speaker 1: that one already had been traded. They had acquired it
12:23
Speaker 1: in the Jeffrey Springs trade, so that one was out.
12:26
Speaker 1: Thirty seven was the one they had, and from the
12:28
Speaker 1: race perspective, it's so difficult to make a deal this
12:32
Speaker 1: time of year. Teams are getting ready for the draft.
12:34
Speaker 1: They're not really ready to declare themselves sellers buyers. It's
12:39
Speaker 1: just too early. The deadline's still nineteen twenty days away.
12:42
Speaker 1: The Rays wanted to get something done. Their bullpen has
12:44
Speaker 1: been reeling over the last two weeks or so, so
12:48
Speaker 1: to get something done, they had to part with that pick.
12:51
Speaker 1: And in their minds, Baker is a quality guy. He's
12:54
Speaker 1: kind of platoon neutral going forward in their heads, and
12:57
Speaker 1: they see him as someone that they can keep for
12:59
Speaker 1: a couple. They weren't going to give the pick up
13:01
Speaker 1: for a rental, but with three years of control through arbitration,
13:05
Speaker 1: this was something that appealed to them.
13:08
Speaker 2: Okay, do you think that the Rays will continue to
13:11
Speaker 2: be active like this? Ken last one here on the Rays?
13:14
Speaker 2: Do you think that they're they're going to push chips in.
13:16
Speaker 2: I know you talked yesterday about how they were very
13:18
Speaker 2: definitive last year selling pieces, but it seems very clear
13:23
Speaker 2: that the Rays feel like they have something this year
13:25
Speaker 2: and we'd all like to see that ALCS in Miami, right,
13:29
Speaker 2: They had.
13:29
Speaker 1: Every reason to sell last year, Scott, and they did sell.
13:33
Speaker 1: They traded nine players, got sixteen back, most of them
13:36
Speaker 1: were minor league prospects, and this year is an entirely
13:40
Speaker 1: different competitive scenario. They're in this thing, they're in it
13:43
Speaker 1: pretty well, and until this recent slide they were looking
13:47
Speaker 1: really good. And they've got Shane McClanahan coming back, so
13:51
Speaker 1: they can do some buy sell things. Zach Lettel is
13:54
Speaker 1: a guy that for me, doesn't get enough attention. He's
13:57
Speaker 1: a very consistent starting pitcher. He's not sexy, doesn't throw
14:00
Speaker 1: a million miles an hour, but he gets the job done.
14:03
Speaker 1: The race could possibly flip in to get something else
14:06
Speaker 1: that they need. I do expect they're gonna add maybe
14:09
Speaker 1: even more to their bullpen. Yes, they will be active,
14:12
Speaker 1: they will be trying to do some things. There's no
14:14
Speaker 1: question in my mind. When they are good. The Blue
14:16
Speaker 1: Jays are like this too much different financial circumstances, of course,
14:21
Speaker 1: but when these teams are good, they generally go for it,
14:24
Speaker 1: and I expect the Rays will do that.
14:26
Speaker 2: If Shane McClanahan comes back and he's anything like Shane McClanahan,
14:30
Speaker 2: I mean, the race could be a problem. I love it.
14:32
Speaker 2: I'm into it. Ken, thank you. We'll see you in
14:34
Speaker 2: a few days.
14:36
Speaker 1: Thanks Scott, yep sounds good.
14:37
Speaker 2: Appreciate it. Safe travels Ken Rosenthal Fair Territory twice a week,
14:42
Speaker 2: Mondays and Thursdays. Thursdays are live with Alana Rizzo and
14:45
Speaker 2: Mondays now are live as well with Ken riding solo,
14:48
Speaker 2: ready to answer all of your questions about the trade deadline,
14:52
Speaker 2: and Ken will join us. I think we'll see him
14:56
Speaker 2: on Tuesday for a little stop by at the Tourist
14:59
Speaker 2: Community Corner, So if you'd like to join us again
15:01
Speaker 2: if you missed it earlier, we're going to be live
15:03
Speaker 2: there Monday and Tuesday. Its right next to the ballpark,
15:06
Speaker 2: so if you're hanging around the area, come kick it
15:08
Speaker 2: with us. And the little nineties style setup that they have.
15:11
Speaker 2: There's photo opportunities, meet and greet, autographs, retro jersey giveaways.
15:17
Speaker 2: There's obviously music flowing. Besides when we have the show
15:19
Speaker 2: going and then scheduled to join the party our David Justice,
15:23
Speaker 2: Andrew Jones, Fred McGriff, Chipper Jones. We're talking to some
15:26
Speaker 2: current players about potentially stopping by and some former players
15:30
Speaker 2: plus Ken. I have the invite out to John Smolt,
15:33
Speaker 2: so it's gonna be awesome stop by Out of the
15:37
Speaker 2: Park Baseball twenty six, best simulation baseball game on the
15:40
Speaker 2: market every single year, is going to help us with
15:43
Speaker 2: second half predictions. So let's go through the board. We're
15:47
Speaker 2: going to start with the second half prediction playoff teams
15:50
Speaker 2: and then eventually we'll get to what they think is
15:52
Speaker 2: going to happen in the playoffs. Let's get your thoughts
15:54
Speaker 2: on these ale Division winners. They have the Tigers, the Yankees,
15:58
Speaker 2: and the Ashers. Now, keep in mind they were able
16:00
Speaker 2: to spit out simulations with what is currently happening, so
16:04
Speaker 2: they know everything. They know the records, they know who's hurt,
16:07
Speaker 2: they know who's thriving. That gives you a lot more
16:10
Speaker 2: information than when you're doing it before the season starts, right,
16:13
Speaker 2: So that's why we're doing a little reload here. N
16:16
Speaker 2: L Division winners Dodgers, Cubs, and they have the Mets
16:20
Speaker 2: taken the East in the wild card seats. They have
16:23
Speaker 2: the Blue Jays, the Mariners and the Rays getting in.
16:26
Speaker 2: On the National League side, they have the Phillies, the
16:28
Speaker 2: Brewers and the Giants getting in. Anything stand out one
16:33
Speaker 2: way or another for you, Todd Father. A lot of
16:35
Speaker 2: the teams that are playing well right now, they have
16:37
Speaker 2: them sticking in that spot. It looks like the Padres
16:40
Speaker 2: are missing from a playoff spot in the National League.
16:44
Speaker 2: Who's missing in the American League obviously no, oh yeah,
16:47
Speaker 2: no Cardinals in the n NL and Krats, no Red
16:51
Speaker 2: Sox in the AL.
16:53
Speaker 3: They're not a good team.
16:56
Speaker 4: I don't know. I still think they got a shot.
16:58
Speaker 4: I would say the Mets. I think the at least
17:00
Speaker 4: find a way to win that division. In my opinion,
17:04
Speaker 4: humble opinion, the Mets have been teetering a little bit here.
17:08
Speaker 4: You know, they'll go through some spur, just like the
17:10
Speaker 4: Yankees did. And I don't know why I always bring
17:12
Speaker 4: the Yankees up. They're both the teams and New York
17:14
Speaker 4: people talk about. But they're a good team. But they
17:19
Speaker 4: need to finish this whole season off. And I think
17:22
Speaker 4: the Phillies find a way to win that division and
17:24
Speaker 4: the Mets get in and wildcard.
17:25
Speaker 2: Actually real quick Kratz. So they also posted the exact
17:28
Speaker 2: win totals because it's a simulation. They had the Mets
17:31
Speaker 2: and Phillies both with ninety two wins, and that the
17:35
Speaker 2: Mets took the season series and that's why they get
17:38
Speaker 2: the division, while the Phillies end up with a wild
17:40
Speaker 2: card team with the least wins to crack the postseason.
17:44
Speaker 2: They've got the Rays with eighty four, Mariners with eighty seven,
17:47
Speaker 2: blue Jays with eighty eight. They have the Tigers leading
17:50
Speaker 2: the American League with ninety seven wins, the Dodgers leading
17:52
Speaker 2: all Baseball with ninety eight wins. They have the Cubs
17:55
Speaker 2: finishing with ninety six wins, and then the Brewers at
17:59
Speaker 2: eighty six. The Giants sneaking into the playoffs with eighty
18:03
Speaker 2: five dubs.
18:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm surprised it doesn't have the Cardinals.
18:08
Speaker 3: Just I guess they're not believing in the fact that
18:11
Speaker 3: their team leader in home runs is now at twelve
18:15
Speaker 3: Wilson Contrere. So you go, eh, maybe they're not believing
18:18
Speaker 3: in that some of this is some run differential things
18:21
Speaker 3: that's cooked up. I think it's interesting that they don't
18:25
Speaker 3: believe in, you know, what the Blue Jays are doing.
18:28
Speaker 3: They don't believe in the fact that the Blue Jays
18:30
Speaker 3: have two game lead like it's a and some teams
18:37
Speaker 3: like bad underbelly of their teams are showing. And I
18:41
Speaker 3: think I would love to see ots otp's prediction. Maybe
18:48
Speaker 3: August third too, after some teams add and some teams
18:52
Speaker 3: don't add, and see where that puts their roster strength.
18:55
Speaker 2: We can make that happen. That's actually a good idea.
18:58
Speaker 2: Put it in the simulation after we know what the
18:59
Speaker 2: right look like, because you can't really change much after
19:02
Speaker 2: the trade deadline. We used to have the basically two
19:04
Speaker 2: trade deadlines, and now there's just the one. Okay, then
19:08
Speaker 2: let's get to the playoff predictions that they have put together.
19:13
Speaker 2: Here they have the AL Wildcard Series with the Astros
19:16
Speaker 2: taking down the Rays and the Mariners beating up the
19:19
Speaker 2: Blue Jays. In the National League Wildcard Series, they have
19:22
Speaker 2: the Mets advancing past the Giants and the Phillies advancing
19:26
Speaker 2: past the Milwaukee Brewers. Keep in mind, when we say wildcard,
19:30
Speaker 2: two teams get the buye and then one team that's
19:32
Speaker 2: a division winner still has to play in the Wildcard series.
19:35
Speaker 2: Ale Division Series, they have the Tigers beating the Mariners
19:38
Speaker 2: and the Astros taking down the Yankees. On the National
19:41
Speaker 2: League side of the bracket, the Dodgers beat the Phillies,
19:44
Speaker 2: the Cubs beat the Mets. So your final four as
19:48
Speaker 2: of now, according to their simulation the Tigers meeting up
19:51
Speaker 2: with the Astros in the ALCS, the Dodgers taking on
19:55
Speaker 2: the Cubs in the NLCS, and they have Tigers Dodgers
20:00
Speaker 2: World Series with we could show the winner and then
20:04
Speaker 2: get thoughts after that the winner of the World Series
20:08
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five as a team that will not
20:13
Speaker 2: be back to back champs of the Dodgers getting taken
20:16
Speaker 2: down by the Tigers, what do you think of the
20:19
Speaker 2: whole playoff bracket they put together? It's early, but fun
20:22
Speaker 2: to do the exercise.
20:26
Speaker 4: You want to go first or may.
20:28
Speaker 3: I would just say that Dodgers have a lot of
20:30
Speaker 3: work to do. Oh and I say that because there's
20:34
Speaker 3: a lot of season to go right now, and I
20:37
Speaker 3: get it. They're losing right now, so it's kind of
20:39
Speaker 3: forefront of our mind. They have a lot of work
20:41
Speaker 3: to do in the sense of how are they going
20:43
Speaker 3: to get their starting pitching innings in to then keep
20:48
Speaker 3: what essentially won the playoffs for him last year healthy
20:54
Speaker 3: their bullpen. They need to get their bullpen healthy. They
20:57
Speaker 3: can't do that right now when you're starting pitching, he's
21:00
Speaker 3: going four or five innings, and it's the reason they're
21:04
Speaker 3: losing is they're not scoring runs right now, this team
21:06
Speaker 3: is going to score runs. Look, you go through ups
21:08
Speaker 3: and downs offensively. They need to figure out to win
21:12
Speaker 3: the World Series. Not to make the playoffs or win
21:14
Speaker 3: a division, but to win the World Series. They need
21:16
Speaker 3: to figure out how to get their bullpen healthy. Because
21:21
Speaker 3: right now, Tanner Scott's showing you that he is you know,
21:25
Speaker 3: he's hittable's he's given a few few games up. But
21:28
Speaker 3: to me, when you slide him back into you know,
21:31
Speaker 3: three to four times a week instead of needing him
21:35
Speaker 3: in the eighth and now he's going out for the
21:36
Speaker 3: eighth and ninth or meeting him in jams like give
21:39
Speaker 3: him a clean in and give him situations to be
21:42
Speaker 3: able to close the game down. That's how this team wins.
21:46
Speaker 3: And I just figure, I just think they have they
21:47
Speaker 3: have some work to do right now to be able
21:49
Speaker 3: to make it through the National League, which is the
21:52
Speaker 3: best league in baseball. And I think the Cubs are
21:56
Speaker 3: going to give a lot of teams a lot of problems.
21:59
Speaker 2: Ronnie said in the chat, how are the Padres not
22:01
Speaker 2: in the playoffs? I would agree there, I think the
22:05
Speaker 2: Padres are gonna get in agreed.
22:08
Speaker 3: Who do you think is better right now, Padres entire
22:11
Speaker 3: team or the Giants entire team. Padre who has a
22:18
Speaker 3: better lineup? Padres? Who has a better pitching staff?
22:24
Speaker 2: It's close, probably, I mean you don't think it's close.
22:28
Speaker 2: Do you think the Giants are much better pitching staff.
22:30
Speaker 3: Top to bottom? I think they are a better pitching staff.
22:33
Speaker 2: Okay? Who?
22:38
Speaker 3: Like to me, the Padres best starter right now is.
22:42
Speaker 2: Nick Pivetta.
22:44
Speaker 3: And what's his era right now?
22:46
Speaker 2: Probably two six?
22:49
Speaker 3: Okay, Then who do you got Dylan Sees?
22:53
Speaker 2: Yeah? Who? I still really like? I know he had
22:56
Speaker 2: a rocky start.
23:01
Speaker 3: It doesn't seem like it doesn't seem like his fastball
23:03
Speaker 3: has enough to finish hitters right now, could it? Does
23:07
Speaker 3: he need like an upticking adrenaline in the playoffs? Absolutely?
23:10
Speaker 3: This dude's already thrown in the playoffs and he was
23:12
Speaker 3: nasty when they went the blackout in Chicago. Like to me,
23:19
Speaker 3: their season is going to be dictated on what happens
23:25
Speaker 3: with Dylan Cees. Pavetta's shown me that he can throw.
23:29
Speaker 3: He can throw like he is other years. This is
23:32
Speaker 3: when he started to fade. He almost looked like he
23:34
Speaker 3: got tired. He's been thrown like he has kept that consistent.
23:38
Speaker 3: He's been their most consistent starter. Dylan Ceze good start,
23:41
Speaker 3: couple bad starts, good start, couple of bad starts. I
23:44
Speaker 3: think the season hinges on Dylan Cease because that lineup
23:48
Speaker 3: they can bang, they can go get it too, and
23:50
Speaker 3: in the infield, in the outfield, great defense. They'll they'll
23:54
Speaker 3: get a left fielder, maybe he'll take one of the
23:56
Speaker 3: Phillies left fielders.
23:58
Speaker 2: And they've got a good bullpen. I mean as far
24:00
Speaker 2: as at the back Adam Morihane or Strata. That's a
24:04
Speaker 2: good back end of the bullpen in my mind, and
24:07
Speaker 2: that's what made them so dangerous last year and almost
24:09
Speaker 2: slaying the Dodgers. Darvish's back. We'll see how he does
24:13
Speaker 2: over time here, but hey, I mean, at least he
24:15
Speaker 2: only gets to pitch half a season. That might be
24:17
Speaker 2: better for someone like him at his age of I
24:19
Speaker 2: think thirty eight years old. Randy Vasquez is having the
24:22
Speaker 2: year of his life and also made some tweaks that
24:25
Speaker 2: puts him as a nice dings eater in the back
24:27
Speaker 2: end of the rotation. A lot of it's gonna hinge
24:29
Speaker 2: on Michael King. I don't know what the latest update
24:32
Speaker 2: is with him, Kratz. But if they can get him
24:33
Speaker 2: back and right and then wait, you're sleeping on the
24:36
Speaker 2: biggest part of all of this. For the Padres, aj
24:40
Speaker 2: Preller's not gonna sit around. No, he's gonna make one
24:43
Speaker 2: or two moves. He always does, and I gotta give
24:46
Speaker 2: him credit for that. I mean, last year he almost
24:48
Speaker 2: made enough moves to win them a World Series. He
24:50
Speaker 2: built a super bullpen. Last year they just couldn't score.
24:53
Speaker 2: They choked in the playoffs, they were distracted or something.
24:56
Speaker 2: But I still like that team. I think that's a
24:59
Speaker 2: playoff team in my mind, mind I disagree with you, Kratz.
25:01
Speaker 2: I like the Cardinals. I don't think they make it
25:03
Speaker 2: to the playoffs. So for their wild card teams, I
25:06
Speaker 2: think that's one of the most interesting discussions is who
25:08
Speaker 2: are the NL wild card teams? That the Braves falling
25:12
Speaker 2: out of the East makes it a little easier to
25:14
Speaker 2: decipher because you've got the Mets and the Phillies. They're
25:16
Speaker 2: going to get in, right, we all agree with that.
25:18
Speaker 2: We all agree that the Cubs are going to get in.
25:20
Speaker 2: We all agree that the Dodgers are going to get in. Okay,
25:22
Speaker 2: after that is where things are interesting they've got You've
25:25
Speaker 2: got two spots, and you've got the Brewers, You've got
25:30
Speaker 2: the Padres, you've got the Giants, you can technically call
25:34
Speaker 2: the Diamondbacks and the Reds. So five teams for those
25:37
Speaker 2: two spots.
25:39
Speaker 4: I think if this well, I don't think the Cubs
25:42
Speaker 4: beat the Mets. That's the only thing.
25:44
Speaker 2: I just so in the playoff part.
25:47
Speaker 4: But I Diamondbacks, I don't see them man at all.
25:52
Speaker 2: Reds so hard.
25:55
Speaker 4: I hate the root against them because I love the team,
25:57
Speaker 4: but they just can't get over the hump right now,
26:00
Speaker 4: and a couple injuries and they just you know, they'll
26:03
Speaker 4: go through some spurts where they'll win the games and
26:04
Speaker 4: then they get two or three within and then boom.
26:08
Speaker 2: Good pitching stats. I want them. I want them in
26:10
Speaker 2: so bad.
26:11
Speaker 4: The city needs that.
26:12
Speaker 3: It's been a while.
26:13
Speaker 4: So yeah, but you seem like when you bag and
26:16
Speaker 4: you play, those are the teams I really don't get out,
26:19
Speaker 4: and you see it time and time.
26:20
Speaker 2: I go, Yeah, they ran one thousand sims to put
26:23
Speaker 2: all of this together. So last piece of the puzzle
26:26
Speaker 2: is they showed us a few of the stats. So
26:30
Speaker 2: they had cal Riley finishing in the thousand sims seven
26:35
Speaker 2: times with sixty two homers or more, one time at
26:37
Speaker 2: sixty four. The high homer mark for a tany they
26:40
Speaker 2: had sixty six in one thousand sims. They had one
26:44
Speaker 2: seventy homer season. For judging, this means the percentage chance
26:48
Speaker 2: is super low, but it's it's not nothing. So just
26:51
Speaker 2: throwing it out there with some of the individual stats
26:54
Speaker 2: that they put together, and I'm trying to see if
26:56
Speaker 2: there were any other kind of big upsets. It's about it.
27:00
Speaker 4: Ever find one hundred and thirty eight sims at forty
27:02
Speaker 4: forty seasons.
27:04
Speaker 2: Out of a thousand, so they're giving him about what
27:06
Speaker 2: a thirty fourteen?
27:08
Speaker 5: Yeah, a little under four. I love it. This is
27:11
Speaker 5: what I want to see. I want to see. I
27:13
Speaker 5: want to see something like that. I want to see
27:15
Speaker 5: the race for forty forty. I want to see PCA going,
27:19
Speaker 5: you know where we have the ticker up, thirty six homers,
27:22
Speaker 5: thirty eight bags, one week left. I want to see
27:25
Speaker 5: a home run race like I want to see the daily.
27:28
Speaker 5: Maybe I'm nostalgic from the whole Soasa maguire, yeah season,
27:33
Speaker 5: but I want to see a home run race where
27:35
Speaker 5: it's like.
27:37
Speaker 3: Bang, cal Rally hits one. Bang Judge, he hits one.
27:41
Speaker 3: Everyone's hating on cal Rally because he's a switch it
27:44
Speaker 3: or everyone's hating on Judge because he's hitting him a
27:46
Speaker 3: Yankee stadium and they're just back and forth thirty seven,
27:49
Speaker 3: thirty nine, thirty nine, forty like that. I want to
27:53
Speaker 3: see that, I do. I think that's great from the game.
27:55
Speaker 2: That was fun. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you.
27:58
Speaker 2: We got some big boppers. They've got the to do it.
28:01
Speaker 2: Cal's probably gonna get a little more DH time in
28:03
Speaker 2: the second half to make sure he's in the lineup
28:04
Speaker 2: every day, right, I mean, I know he can catch
28:07
Speaker 2: every day and he wants to know. You don't think soakrats.
28:10
Speaker 3: I just think he's gonna be out there because they're
28:11
Speaker 3: gonna be pushing that watch the starting catchers start. They're
28:15
Speaker 3: gonna be pushing for that wildcard spot and dudes like this,
28:20
Speaker 3: dudes that are built differently. Unfortunately, it might hurt him offensively.
28:24
Speaker 3: He's going to be out there day game after night game.
28:27
Speaker 3: He's gonna be out there.
28:28
Speaker 2: They need him offensively. Krats like he is the Hey
28:31
Speaker 2: is the guy the they're just as relying on him
28:33
Speaker 2: now as the Yankees are on Judge.
28:35
Speaker 3: And he but he's offensively I get it, so he's
28:38
Speaker 3: gonna be out there, but he's also a platinum glove.
28:41
Speaker 3: Mitch Garver's receiving numbers aren't right there they had They
28:44
Speaker 3: need every margin of error like they need every every
28:49
Speaker 3: on the margins to be able to make it to
28:51
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Again we talk about it though, the Mariners
28:54
Speaker 3: in the playoffs be very very careful.
28:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, with that's that. Also, it doesn't happen often, so
29:02
Speaker 2: the city deserves it. Thanks to that of the park. Baseball
29:05
Speaker 2: twenty six for putting these sims together really cool and
29:07
Speaker 2: I like Kratz's idea. Let's do that again after the
29:09
Speaker 2: trade deadline. OTP twenty six is now at fifty percent
29:13
Speaker 2: off through July seventeenth, that's next week, and for the
29:16
Speaker 2: first time ever, they have the Road to the World
29:17
Speaker 2: Baseball Classic in there. The Player Development Lab two point
29:20
Speaker 2: zero is up and running. You can scan that QR
29:22
Speaker 2: code on the screen or check it out if you
29:25
Speaker 2: google it. It'll take you to a page to be
29:28
Speaker 2: able to purchase the game for half off for the
29:30
Speaker 2: next week. Jason Stark put out his twenty twenty five
29:35
Speaker 2: Mid season Awards right now, ALMVP for him, Aaron Judge,
29:42
Speaker 2: n LMVP for him. Sho HEO Tani. So he's got
29:45
Speaker 2: Cal second, Raley and Pete Crow Armstrong second PCA in
29:51
Speaker 2: the National League. Let's start there real quick, like don't.
29:56
Speaker 4: Like, I like, but Raleigh's a strong, strong one. B
29:59
Speaker 4: right now he is, Okay, he's a stut.
30:02
Speaker 2: What about Otani over PCA.
30:05
Speaker 4: I would say Otani and I like Otani.
30:07
Speaker 2: You like And obviously O's gonna keep pitching and racking
30:10
Speaker 2: up more anings. I know they're going to slow play it,
30:12
Speaker 2: but it helps. Kratz looks like he's got other thoughts.
30:17
Speaker 3: In the National I would say I would say pc
30:19
Speaker 3: A over over Otani because I get what Otani has done.
30:25
Speaker 3: He's done it at DH, though could change in the
30:28
Speaker 3: second half. The more he keeps pitching, he might just
30:32
Speaker 3: he might just run away with it. But what PCA did,
30:35
Speaker 3: He's put this team, He's putting, not his own as
30:38
Speaker 3: back because Kyle Tucker has been helping to and other guys.
30:41
Speaker 3: It's a full team effort. But may PCA's first half
30:45
Speaker 3: and I agree with him when the judge part I
30:48
Speaker 3: I'm not saying that cal Raley's not going to win it,
30:51
Speaker 3: but I think judge what he did in the first
30:53
Speaker 3: half is also historical.
30:56
Speaker 2: Everything that PCA is doing is elite right, base running,
30:59
Speaker 2: dur clutch everything. Yeah, I'm a big PCA guy, but
31:05
Speaker 2: Otani could play catch him in the second half with
31:07
Speaker 2: the pitching and the hitting that that usually helps. No
31:09
Speaker 2: one else does that, So you're going to see him
31:13
Speaker 2: slowly tick up. They're going to take their time. They
31:15
Speaker 2: just want him by September in a five inning spot,
31:18
Speaker 2: and I'm sure he'll try to push to six and
31:20
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, maybe even seven if he's really feeling himself.
31:23
Speaker 2: Let's go over the LVPS. So Jason Stark, from his
31:28
Speaker 2: article in The Athletic listed the al LVP least valuable players,
31:33
Speaker 2: so underperformers as Luis Robert really is having a down
31:39
Speaker 2: year and it's a bummer obviously for White Sox fans,
31:42
Speaker 2: but really for another team that could have acquired him,
31:44
Speaker 2: and he's such a talent, it just hasn't figured it out.
31:47
Speaker 2: A Doley Scarcia having a down year, and then he
31:50
Speaker 2: listed Anthony Rendon as a Career Achievement Award which is fair.
31:55
Speaker 2: On the National League side. Michael Harris, who we've talked
31:58
Speaker 2: about a couple of times in the past week. Really,
32:00
Speaker 2: right now, I'm qualified players. It is the worst in
32:02
Speaker 2: baseball as he all be is having a super down year,
32:05
Speaker 2: and Brian Reynolds on this list who could get traded,
32:09
Speaker 2: but it has to be to a team that believes
32:11
Speaker 2: that this is a blip in the radar. I think so.
32:13
Speaker 2: But what do you think of the LVPS?
32:16
Speaker 4: I get Luis Robert mat It's tough. He had what
32:18
Speaker 4: thirty nine homers last year or the year before, almost
32:21
Speaker 4: reached a forty mark, and now it's just been hit
32:24
Speaker 4: or miss with this guy, Bro, I don't know. It's
32:26
Speaker 4: a tough one. I would agree with Dallas has got
32:29
Speaker 4: to figure it out. Ren Don just hasn't played, so
32:32
Speaker 4: I don't even know what you do with that one. Yeah,
32:35
Speaker 4: Harris had a great year last year too, No, my
32:37
Speaker 4: mistaken him. I thinking about the wrong guy. Now he's
32:39
Speaker 4: bat and ninth for the Braves, right, he did pretty
32:42
Speaker 4: darn good in that nine hole.
32:44
Speaker 2: Harris in his career has had nothing like this. I
32:47
Speaker 2: mean this is year I believe this is year four
32:48
Speaker 2: in his career. Yeah, this is season four in his career.
32:52
Speaker 2: He's had nothing like this his first three seasons. I mean,
32:54
Speaker 2: he was the best in twenty twenty two, his rookie year,
32:57
Speaker 2: right going on a tear bat ninth. Yeah, his offense
33:01
Speaker 2: has gone down year to year here, but even still
33:03
Speaker 2: last year he's about league average offensive player and he's
33:05
Speaker 2: an elite defender, good base runner. But yeah, Kratz, it
33:09
Speaker 2: could be a case of the league starting to figure
33:11
Speaker 2: him out. I know now he's in his head at
33:12
Speaker 2: this point. But the offensive numbers went from rookie year,
33:16
Speaker 2: second year down another you know, ten to fifteen percent,
33:19
Speaker 2: another ten to fifteen percent last year, and then this
33:21
Speaker 2: year it's it's it's a mess.
33:25
Speaker 3: It's a mess. It's a mess. And the again, I
33:28
Speaker 3: mean I talked about strikeouts earlier. I just don't know
33:31
Speaker 3: where the strikeouts and came from in this sense. I mean,
33:35
Speaker 3: he's one hundred strikeout guy. But you know, I guess
33:39
Speaker 3: this people will say, people will say metrically, analytically, well,
33:43
Speaker 3: if you don't control the strike zone, you know, he's
33:46
Speaker 3: not a big he doesn't walk a lot. That's this
33:49
Speaker 3: is going to catch up to you. You know, it
33:50
Speaker 3: doesn't it doesn't last if you don't control control the
33:54
Speaker 3: strike zone. To me, the Luis Robert thing is is
33:57
Speaker 3: crazy though. Least valuable player like some and I would
34:02
Speaker 3: be one of them, would have been like, you know,
34:03
Speaker 3: how motivated really is this guy? Guy's got twenty two bags,
34:07
Speaker 3: so when he's getting on like he wants to get
34:10
Speaker 3: after it, he just has to figure out a way
34:14
Speaker 3: to put together consistent at bats. And to me, I think, shoot,
34:21
Speaker 3: even a hot month this year, he could have he
34:24
Speaker 3: could have worked himself into a big trade and everybody
34:26
Speaker 3: would have said he was back. He's just he's just
34:28
Speaker 3: like any other elite prospect where it's like as soon
34:31
Speaker 3: as you show a glimpse of something, they're like, yep,
34:34
Speaker 3: this is it. This is the guy where petty you know,
34:36
Speaker 3: the reason we got him, the extension thirty nine home
34:39
Speaker 3: run guy, and he just hasn't been there.
34:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy for Luis Robert. I mean he is.
34:48
Speaker 2: He is someone that they could have gotten a lot
34:50
Speaker 2: for a couple of years ago, but he had so
34:51
Speaker 2: much team control. Now he actually doesn't have team control
34:54
Speaker 2: because his next couple of years are option years and
34:56
Speaker 2: he's not worth the money right now. So it's kind
34:58
Speaker 2: of crazy that they're gonna maybe get almost nothing for
35:00
Speaker 2: that asset, which brings me to you Arena Club, because
35:03
Speaker 2: if you held on to your Luise Robert cards, it
35:05
Speaker 2: did not work out well a few years ago. If
35:07
Speaker 2: you got a Louise Robert rookie and you got a
35:09
Speaker 2: little buy back from Arena Club, which happens every time
35:12
Speaker 2: you open a slab pack, you can just sell it
35:13
Speaker 2: right back to them. If you're like, you know what,
35:16
Speaker 2: I don't think this guy's worth it, and I'm going
35:17
Speaker 2: to take the cash. That's what you can do here.
35:19
Speaker 2: Use code foul for twenty percent off your first slab
35:21
Speaker 2: pack or card purchase. Go support it at least check
35:24
Speaker 2: it out arenaclub dot com slash foul and we're back,
35:29
Speaker 2: and we're saying bye bye people for real. Happy Friday,
35:32
Speaker 2: enjoy your weekend, last three games before the All Star
35:35
Speaker 2: Break for whatever team you're looking for, and then we
35:37
Speaker 2: will see you in atl for the Derby and the
35:39
Speaker 2: All Star Game. We're super pumped about it. We'll have
35:41
Speaker 2: shows every day next week as well for All Star Week.