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NFL Week 16 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems gone clear.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: We lift up.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: What's Up Number one? Tyler Tambalane here aka Totag and
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Tambo back for another edition of Leverage Lane here on
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the ship at Nation YouTube station. Make sure to tap
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: that thumbs up on the way in. Subscribe to the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: channel for all of our free shows. Got my guy
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Alex blikele here with me as always, gonna break down
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: all things for this week sixteen slate. We're getting to
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the end of it, and just a quick programming note
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: before we get into it. This is the second last
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: episode of the season, so for Leverage Lane, it's gonna
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: wrap up next week on Saturday. You'll want to be here.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: We've got another we'll drop. It's a little bit of
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: a teaser, a little bit announcement, but that's gonna be
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: it for this year next week once we hit week seventeen.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Week eighteen, bit of a schedule, travel things like that,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: and then on top of it can be a bit
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: of a shit show even to the last minute on
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning. But we're gonna break this one down as usual.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: This is a really fun slate. Eleven games. I know
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are excited about the two games
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: slate tonight and the showdowns and all of that, I
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: am as well. But this eleven game slate, Alex, pretty nice.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: We'll break down ownership, we'll break down the how to
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: leverage to come and build, and then at the end
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: of course we'll go to our leverage lane. But how
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: you doing this week, my friend? We're back.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: I'm doing very well. I don't think you mean it
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: when you say you're excited for this two game slate today,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: because this two games slate today here on Saturday, it
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  Speaker 2: is one of the worst.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I'm excited that we have. But yes, you said it there.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: It's not that. It's definitely not if you were ever
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: taking a slate off, I got no problem with it
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: for this one. If you've got some holiday stuff, family,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: whatever it might be, just play a lineup and throw
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: it in. I'll let you go. But yeah, I'm with you.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: You're right, it's definitely not that exciting.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but but you said, I mean this, This mainslat
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  Speaker 2: is really good that we've got, you know, one one
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  Speaker 2: awesome looking game that you know the whole field is
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: going to be on, but then a lot of other
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: sneaky spots that I think are pretty enticing, So it's
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: going to be a fun one to kind of sort
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: through here on the show today.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, last week was, you know, interesting, so you know,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: just a note because it not Rey follows everything all along.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: But like I lost a lot of money on my
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: main lineup with Donald and JSN. I don't know how
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: the guy doesn't start getting targets until the two minute
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: drill of the second quarter. But JSN did not have
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: himself a week last week with Donald, so that didn't
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: help me. But I did have a really nice golf
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Jamison Williams amen Ra Puka lineup third in the ten
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  Speaker 1: thousand entry the two hundred and fifty dollars Fan Duel
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Fan Championship had a real shot at the MILLI down
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: the stretch had the highest pooka kid Oo Pollard ended
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: up getting third for fifty k on just ten entries,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: so that was pretty solid. They're excited to run it
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: back this week. But I think we talked about that
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: pretty heavily Alex, and it's gonna be similar for this
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  Speaker 1: week too. But like if you were just running a
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: secondary stat even if you had a Monra pook, I'll
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: let you talk about it, but you really needed to
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: stack that game up outside of the results. It was
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: like if it was getting there, it was really getting there.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: And that's what I liked about that spot. I could
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: see like a Gibbs play because if you really thought
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: it was gonna sol the game down, be all Gibbs
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: on the ground, but like the pooka amanras just got
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: over top, like everyone came over the top with the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: other stuff. What'd you think of that? How'd your week
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: go last week? Yeah?
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  Speaker 2: It was kind of cool. I mean, even like all
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: the way back in week four when we started this show.
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  Speaker 2: One of the themes from the get go, we've talked
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: about this like over and over and over again. It's
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: this idea of the field over using mini stacks. And
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: it's not that the mini stack isn't positively correlated. It's
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: that you're trying to thread like a very very you know,
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: narrow needle if you will, in the sense that either
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: the game goes off and you're gonna want the whole stack,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: like that's when the positive correlation really shows up in
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: a mini stack. But then you want the whole game,
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: you want all the pieces, or it underwhelms and you
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: don't want the ministack. You want to one off from
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: a different game, a different stud So we've seen that
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: play out a lot this year, and I think this
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: was like the fourth or fifth time that the game
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: that we highlighted as you either need to be all
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: in on this game or not in on it at all,
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  Speaker 2: really really went often. And you've been on the right
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: side of that a bunch this year. I remember back,
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: you know, the Colts Rams was a perfect example. That
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: was probably the first example of this kind of concept
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: earlier this season. But but yeah, you hat another example.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: And so like we were talking before the show started
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: here where even if you had the perfect mini stack
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: this past week, the perfect one, the ideal one, Amanra
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: and Puka, you were still passed by all of the
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: teams that also had Parkinson or Stafford or Golf and Jamison.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: And more likely if you chose a mini stack instead
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  Speaker 2: of the full stack, it was like Pukah and Gibbs
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: and now you're really getting passed or Puoka and Jameson
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: and you're not getting on the Alma Rock play. So yeah,
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: it's it's really important to kind of bring that up
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: because number one, it shows that we've been on the
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: right talking about this stuff. All season. But then it's
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: even more relevant to this slate because we have yet
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: another Detroit Lions game that we're going to say the
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: same thing. Either need to be all in on this
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: game or not in on it that much.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, which is the interesting part because, like you said,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of the secondary stacks are coming up again.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: But I think it's you know, another thing from last
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: week too, and it I'll relate to this week. So
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: that's why we're talking about it. It's not really just
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: a run back last week's thoughts. It's not a review
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: show obviously, but just to say it because it will
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: apply to this slate when we get here in a second.
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  Speaker 1: Is the one I really liked that you brought up
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  Speaker 1: last week, And really it's more things you've brought up
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: this season that are just like hitting home and it's like, oh,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: it's another added layer that you can bring to your game.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: And I think that's why people like this go so much,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: is because the thought of last week, did you have
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: to figure out cam Ward for Tennessee or did you
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: just have to figure out or make a decision that
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans could at least keep up with San
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Francisco to make that thing work. And you know people
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: are always looking, but I can't figure out to bring back.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I can't figure out who to run it back, but
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I can't figure out if I even need one. Sometimes
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: it's not that you need it, it's just will that
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: side be able to make it go. And even somebody
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: here had just said Steelers are good enough to push
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: the pace and Lions need to win out that's what
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  Speaker 1: can make for a good spot. Now we'll get there.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Everyone thinks because you saw goff Amen Ra Jamison Williams
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: and you just picked the guys on the other side
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  Speaker 1: that it's gonna be the same thing this week. Maybe
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: it will, but it doesn't always mean that it will.
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  Speaker 1: So just keep that in mind as far as we go.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Before we get into it, shout out to all the
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: regulars as usual. I saw Coach sav you got an
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: eight eighty eight ticket and more last night. Congrats to you,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: my man. Rick. I was on with yesterday and the
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Mentorship Program breaking down some stuff, giving him some ideas
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: for one to three. Max love that. Michael says, best show.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Happy Holidays, Nation, Yeah, whatever holidays you celebrate out there,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Happy holidays to everybody from us over here. At the
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Nation from Alex and I here on Leverage Lane and
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: just real quick because it is the two gamers tonight
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: people are talking about like Alex said, yes, there's you know.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: The thing about it is everyone own nose slates off,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: no days off. Like, first of all, you definitely can.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: It's good for your mindset, it's good for the mentals.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: It's the holiday season. If you're behind and you're not focused,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: there's other people that have no life, are living in
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: mom's basement grinding this thing out in the spreadsheets that
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: are getting ahead of you. So there's lots of reasons
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: you could take it off. The money is the same,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: but today the edge really, to me at least, is
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: like leaving the money on the table and just stacking.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: What makes sense. I said it in the discord earlier
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: before I popped on this show. But like if you
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: go I don't know love, let's say Love Watson Read,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: or let's say it's Love read Musgrave Loveland. That you
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: end up needing, well, now you can't spend your money.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: There's no possible way. So finagula. Oh but now I
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: can fit Hurts, But now I can fit aj Bread. Well,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: then that's now you got the same lineup as everybody else,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: So you got to think about it from that perspective,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: be willing to take the risk that way. I really
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: do think that would be the edge for tonight if
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: you're wanting to play it. So I like it from
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: that perspective. Doesn't mean it's gonna work to your point,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean it's going to be a good plate.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to this peak, Alex. Let's start
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: talking about what we see here for ownership, and there
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: is some really interesting cases to be made right out
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: of the gates. Obviously, I know we got some injury
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: stuff and things that we're waiting on, but sort of
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: where do you want to start on this? So what
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: do you think stand out as the key point to
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: bring into the conversation.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: Honestly, I think this time we start with a single game,
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: and we start with the Detroit and Pittsburgh and just
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: kind of talking through this because I mean, it's very
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: rare that like four of the most five popular players
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: on a Slayer or something are all coming from the
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: same game. But that's what we're going to see here
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: with Gibbs, Metcalf, Saint Brown, and Jamison Williams. And not
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: only that, but I think there's also like a chance
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: that Kenny Ganwell ends up being the most popular value
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: running back. It's probably him, or we could see potentially
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: Aaron Jones I think is going to get up there
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: pretty good. Maybe Michael Carter gets some steam, but like
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: when people are paying down at running back, it's probably
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: going to be game well, especially if they're using this
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: Detroit offense a bunch. And so it's just like the
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: very first thing that we have to decide is am
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: I building a lineup that assumes that this Detroit game
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: goes off like so many of these you know, really
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: attractive game environments have over the past few weeks, Or
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: am I saying, hey, what happens if this game underwhelms?
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: And now I'm building a lineup that tells the story
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: of that game underwhelming where maybe, as you said, like
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: what if the only real offense from this game comes
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: from Gibbs on long touchdown runs and now you play
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Gibbs and you don't touch anyone else in the game. Okay,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: now I know that I have to go find some
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: upside in a stack elsewhere. So I think the very
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: first decision we have to make this week is what
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: are we doing with the Pittsburgh Detroit game? And I
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: actually think that, like, we can make whatever decision we
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: want here, we just have to make that decision first.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: I don't think there's a bad decision to make with
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: the game other than to say I'm going to play
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: gain Well and Jamison and that's it, or Metcalf and
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: Jamison and that's it. Because if you do that sort
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: of thing, you're just really setting yourself up, as we
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: just talked about, to really get passed by all of
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: the lineups that really go in on that game. Because
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: if just think about what you're saying when you're playing
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: like Metcalf and Saint Brian, you're saying, hey, these guys
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: are positively correlated. If one does really really well, the
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: other is more likely to do well. But yeah, when
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: that happens, when you get the environment that makes your
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: lineup as positively correlated as it can be, you're gonna
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: get passed by all those other real game stacks. So
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: it's just it's just like the one bad way to
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: play that game. I think you can you neither just
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: take a one off or full stack at same ideas
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: as we've talked about the last few weeks, but do
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: you have a lean there's are you more likely to
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: go all in or kind of fait this game.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: I definitely like this spot quite a bit. And it's just,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a problem. We've seen this before. It
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: was that I forget which Arizona game it was where
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: it was like, Okay, we get it, it's gonna be popular.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: You gotta think about different ways. And so even yesterday
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: doing the Mail show with him him Scroll and I,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: it was like we kept going to the secondary stack
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: and I was like trying to show ways like, yeah,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: you can flip it and do this if you go
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: gain well Jameson Williams and if that gets you something else, yes,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: But like as soon as he said what game do
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: you want? Guys want to go to scroll Wet first,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I was like, I'm going right to this game, but
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I'm just over stacking it. And I was like, yes,
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the way that I'd like to do
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: it now. I like the Rogers side. I think what's
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: gonna happen though, if you look at projections right now
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: and ownership Jameson Williams and Amen Ross Saint Brown are
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: popping for good reason. People go naturally to then go
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: to golf. They pick gain Well or they pick DK,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: or they pick gain Well because if they're off Gibbs,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: maybe in that lineup they think, oh, this is the case.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: But I still see Gibbs getting the ownership on this
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: slate because all the other good stacks can fit Gibbs,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and that's gonna be people wanting a piece of this game.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: So for me, there's this is an eleven game slate.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Like somebody said earlier today for the two games slate,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: like oh that you can just play some a lot
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: of the chalk and get different and lead money. But
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: it's like if you're on Hurtz, Devanta, aj Brown and Bart,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: like you're you're just kind of two or three of
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: those guys together. It's not gonna be completely different. There's
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: not many ways you can go now here. I think
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you can go like Rogers Metcalf Friarmouth with one of
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: those receivers or Gibbs. I think you could play Golf
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: skip Gibbs play them. I mean you can play it anyway.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: You can play them with Gibbs too, don't forget that.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: But I'm just noting you can play golf Am and
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Jamison Williams and then play Gainwell and Friarmuth as like
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: two completely unique pieces on that other side, and hope
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: that that's how it gets there and it's not Metcalf.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: How many of those stacks will exist where it's automatically
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: just Metcalf or gain Well on the run back, or
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Metcalf and gain Well where it's immediately you can have
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Friarmuth cut into that. So I think like little things
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: like that. I also think there's a possibility that there
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: is a couple other games that will want to get
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: to when we get to the second part of leverage
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: lane and how to leverage the common build, and part
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: of leveraging the common build this week, interestingly enough, might
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: be not playing this game and hoping that it spreads
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: out that both quarterbacks are just mediocre. Aman Rod doesn't
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: have the full ceiling game and Jamison and some randoms
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: cut into him dk Metcalf has the fifteen to sixteen
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: point game but not the twenty five point plus game,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: and then it's Gainwell doesn't do his thing, or you
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: need some of those other running backs, and then to
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: your point earlier on the gamewell factor, Michael Carter is
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: in the afternoon with him, so we'll probably see some
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: late swap stuff that happens there because it's only twenty
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: minutes beforehand. But I also think you were right on
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: the Aaron Jones stuff. I think Aaron Jones senior nowadays
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I forgot about Yea. He may see a little bit
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: of steam here in this spot as well, going up
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: against that Giants defense. But we'll talk about that game
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: in a little bit also. But yeah, I definitely have
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: interested in this game. I think the Rogers side is
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: more interesting to me, just flipping it from what everybody's
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: gonna chase. Everybody that miss golf last week is gonna
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: just pop right on golf this week because of course
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be the exact same thing back to back weeks, right,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if you have anything else you
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: want to add there, but I think there's definitely different
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: ways to get, different ways to go within the game.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: Sack No, I love that. And actually I don't know
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: if you already knew this, but I'm very much in
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: on Friar Youth this week. I already have a yardage
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: ladder as one of my props. I actually have more
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: props this week than I have in any other week
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: this season. I think it's just a great props week.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: But Friar Youth is a big one of that, and he,
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: like so clearly is their best just pure route runner
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: of the tight ends. He doesn't play a ton because
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: they liked to designest a bunch of stuff for Jonas Smith.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: They love what Darnell Washington brings to their run game
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: and just as a big blocker, and then he's capable
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: enough pass catcher. But whenever they've been down, whenever they've
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: been in chase mode. So far this year, farm Youth's
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: on the field more. It's getting more targets. Think of
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: that game that he had against Cincinnati earlier in the
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: season where like all of it came when they were
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: actually chasing after that hot start from Funk Flacco and company.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so he's just I think set up for
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: a really good game. And whenever we have this sort
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: of game environment that we know everyone's on, but you
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: actually have one guy that you're really confident in that
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: is cheap and contrarian, that just makes it so much
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: easier to get in on the game environment as a whole.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: So I think that's definitely My preference for the week
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: is probably to play this game in some way and
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: have friar youth be a major part of them.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it leaves you a ton of money still too.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I also have an interesting thought just on the site
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: that we'll get to now because I think it's important
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: while we're in the early stages of it, is what
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: do you see right now for the running back ownership
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: as a whole? Like if you were reading your top
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: five owned running backs, what do you see right now?
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's once again like really loaded up at
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: the top. So you've got Gibbs, we have him at
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: thirty nine percent single entry ownership, then b Jonn Robinson
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: at thirty two percent senglentry ownership. I do think a
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: Chan's going to slip through the cracks a little bit.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: We only have him at ten percent seeing entry ownership,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: which is really really intriguing in the matchup it is
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals, and then it's kind of balanced from there.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: So next is gain Well at eighteen point three percent,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: Aaron Jones at seventeen point four percent. Wouldn't surprise me
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: if either of those guys end up like twenty five
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: to thirty, particularly in some of the higher stake stuff,
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: and then kind of balance beyond that you got Michael Carter, R. J. Harvey,
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: Javonte Williams all between ten and thirteen percent, and then
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: kind of no one else after that getting to ten.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: So it really seems like the field is going to
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: this Barbell approach, if you will, where they're paying all
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: the way up or paying all the way down to
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: Johnson game one.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think a lot of people want to do that.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Like the thoughts. I know, Briant, you asked a question.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: We'll look at it after probably, well, I'll look at
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: it in a second. But it says since the top
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: end back, this is the preface of what I'm hearing
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: from everybody. Like there everyone's saying the same thing. So
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: the premise story what I hear people saying. So this
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: would be the spot where I'm just looking at it
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: from a hole of like there is enough value backs
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: and it doesn't even have to be gain Well. I
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: obviously like him, and I talked to him in that
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: game stack. I really like him because there's ways to
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: separate and cut into him. I always call it slice
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: and dice, like if you play Friarmuth in a Gainwell lineup,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I don't care what gain Well gets to because you know,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: friar Mouth just cut right into that. That kills the
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: difference on lineups. And it's just like think about it,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: like I was talking about, like the tournament to get
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: to the top, It's like if you're on all the
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: same stuff all across the board, well, you just keep
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: jamming yourself in a crowded room. You're trying to get
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: to the room where only one winner gets all the money.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: One room has all the money at the top. You
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: want to get to that room. You cannot be on
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: all the same stuff as everybody else. You got a
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: break free from the pack somehow, and you may go
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: in the wrong room and not end up in the
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: room with the money. But you'd rather have a chance
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: to win all the money than not, you know. That's
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: that's kind of look at it. So I think there
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: is some other options there. But I think there's some
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: mid range running backs and even those lower priced running
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: backs where you can stack a kind of balanced build
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: in some of these other games where it's we'll get
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: to them. But like I'm thinking of like Baker, Bryce Young,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking about bo Nicks in that game with the Jags.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: There's a couple different spots that you can go here
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: where that build kind of ends up that you just
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: don't use those top end running backs and hope that
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: they don't have the ceiling days everyone's expecting. So I
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: think that's interesting as well and needing to add there.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, while we're here running back Jalen Warren like two
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: three percent owned in single entries, is he another way
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: that we should just be kind of a not just
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: like considering it, but like the one of the things
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: that I like to do just kind of thought experiments,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: if you will, is ask myself, Okay, if this guy
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: scores twenty five or thirty draftings points this week and
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: breaks the slate, am I gonna be sitting there thinking, well,
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: I couldn't have possibly foreseen that? Or am I going
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: to be saying why in the world was I not
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: on this guy who was such an obvious leverage spot?
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: And I think that he qualifies there where like we
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: shouldn't be surprised if Jalen Warren has five receptions for
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: fifty yards and a touchdown and adds eighty yards and
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: a touchdown on the ground and it's him having the
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: big game at running back instead of gain Well. He
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: leverages gain Well, he takes touchdowns from the chalky Metcalf,
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: and he's like the perfect bringback to Detroit stuff, or
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: maybe he even helps Rogers get there along with Metcalf
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: or Friar Youth. And we just look at this like,
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: why were we not on the three percent starting running
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: back instead of the second running back who's had a
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: couple really good games in a row. When Warren was
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: clearly sick and not very healthy last week, and you
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: know there's by all reports he seems to be fully
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: healthy now. So that just seems to me like an
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: ownership andy that we can take advantage of within this
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: game as well.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: The show is called Leverage Lane, and that's definitely leverage there.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: For sure. It's a thousand bucks more. The projection is similar,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: but actually slightly higher. I've got on Jalen Warren and
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: like you said, the health or the illness stuff last game.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Now there is a running set, like I talked about
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: it with May on Scroll yesterday, there's like three or
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: four of the games, including the ones that Warren was
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: healthy and where Gainwell still did his thing. You've heard,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: but I think a lot of it too. This week
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: is last week's game and Aaron Rodgers going on record,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: and that's where people are getting the you know, even
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: if they haven't heard it yet, they're hearing other people
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: talk about Gainwell. Who heard that talked about? So it
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: gets brought up. But he said he wants to get
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Kenny Gainwell paid. He wants to get him, you know, involved.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: The guy does everything right. He's good worker, good solid dude,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: everything like that. So I think it's a perspective of
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: others that's bleeding out into that. But to your point,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: it could very well be Jalen Warren. And honestly, forget
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: the Friar moots, forget the gain Well, forget the Metcalf stuff.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: If you even built Goff Saint Brown Williams and Warren,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: you are way different than what everybody else is doing
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: because most have one of game Well or DK Metcalf
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: or whatever else that looks like. So certainly think, yeah,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: you know, Warren Mooth like that would be for sure.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Definitely think that's interesting.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: But point there, to your point there, Tambo, like the
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: Rogers comments about Game Well, they just happened. Rodgers also
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: made comments this year about Warren, Like, every time we
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: get the ball in this guy's hands, good things happen,
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: so we should be getting him more touches like he's
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: He's made comments like that about both these guys, but
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: because the comments were made about game Will more recently,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: he's going to be twenty percent owned when Warren's going
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: to be two percent owned. Like that again, just a
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: massive ownership inefficiency. When we have ownership inefficiencies within the
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: best game environment, it just makes so much sense to
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: me to say, Okay, well I'll just play the best
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: game environment in a better way than what the field
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: is doing and at lower ownership. So yeah, that that
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: to me just just really seems like kind of a
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: clear path for us moving forward.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: And the other reason I like something like that just
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: out of just you know, quickly here is slight dynamics.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: We haven't talked about it yet, but we're going to. Anyway,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are paying up at defense this week.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Not saying you shouldn't. They are phenomenal spots for these defenses,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: but I'm just noting that a lot of people say, yeah,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: but it's a thousand bucks more. There's not really anything
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: based on your argument you just made. There's really nothing
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: outside of a game log and recency bias on comments
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: that were also made about someone to previous from the
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: same person. So it's like little things like that, and
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: it's like, oh, but I got to find a thousand bucks. Now, well,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: maybe take your four thousand dollars defense down into the
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: three k range. And I'm sure there's something exists. We're
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: not telling you to go to the two k stone
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: minimum defense or take your so and so down from
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: your current tight end down to Friarmouth because he actually
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: fits the same game stack. And now you go from
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: whoever you had in the four k range, or you know,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Waller or somebody at thirty nine hundred or whatever it
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: might be. You take them down and then maybe move
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the defense a little bit. But there's lots of ways
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: to get there, it's just whether you're comfortable doing it.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: And clearly the ownership shows right now people are not
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: comfortable getting there, so I wanted to go with that.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: The one thing that was brought up with this game
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: as well is, yeah, this is in the realm as well.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: I always talking about this, but if you have a
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: game stack where you're not getting to this I don't
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: love this, but I'm just saying, in this week slate,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: if you got to like a Montgomery Lions, it'd be
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: huge leverage because if Montgomery scores a couple on the
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: ground and they're ahead, and it's Rogers throwing and it's
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: not gain Well, it's not DK Metcalf where they're so
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: heavily owned. The Lions D would be pretty solid in
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: that spot as well, because it'd be going up against
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: huge chalk pieces that would really hammer it. I think
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: people are way more likely to overstack this game. First
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: of all, they're not. They're most likely to secondary stack it.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Then they're most likely to go to like a three
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: to one of some kind that we already talked about,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: or I think then they're going to the full on
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: game sack like what we just talked about, before any
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: of them go to Montgomery and Lions D. I think
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: that'd be the least of those four that people end
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: up on. And again maybe it's the least likely, but
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: it's definitely a path to leverage this game and this
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: slate as a whole. So thinking about things like that
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: and just the layers of it, so more of if
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: you're building and you land there. That's how you can
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: get to it, right, That's how I think about that stuff.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: So where else do you want to go next, Alex,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it rolling with the first part here, just
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: from what else we're seeing that's creating the common build.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: I know that one's drawing up a ton of it,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: but I am seeing some stuff in the Arizona game.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe again, I think more end up on the other one,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: but just noting that, and then you kind of talked
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: about it earlier with some of these cheaper running backs
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: and tight ends. But what else do you got?
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: So the Arizona one is interesting because I do think
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: people really want to play a fifty three hundred dollars
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: per set, But now that it seems like Harrison actually
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: will play, the vast majority of people are gonna say,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: seventy six hundred trade McBride and sixty nine hundred Michael Wilson,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: especially Wilson are too expensive, and so I don't really
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: know how people are going to handle that. I think
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: the optimizers will still grab a lot of Brisset, probably
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: single stacked with either McBride or Wilson, maybe even some Harrison,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: but single entry lineups. I could very much see Bras
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: ending up a lot lower on than what's being projected
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: around the industry just because people want to stack and
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: they no longer like any of the stacking options. Maybe
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: some will even use Michael Carter, especially with optimizers. But
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: so that's a that's a hard one to predict. And
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: if you're not giving ownership to him, then where does
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: it go? Because I think we're gonna see a lot
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: of ownership on golf. We're going to see more ownership
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: than what people expect on Rogers. So like, I don't
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: think just going to Rogers makes you that different. We
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: could we could easily see like twenty five percent golf,
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: ten to fifteen percent Rogers in higher stakes single entry
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: stuff or even like the five five five milliar the
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: five five five three max.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: That kind of Rogers steals from Brissett too. I think
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: to what your previous point, like, I definitely think that's
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: what ends up happening versus what's showing right now. So
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I agree on that one hundred percent.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, great call there. And then I think there's gonna
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: be like a secondary tier of ownership, which is going
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: to be Shuck Bonix, C J. Stroud and of that crew.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: Stroud is the one that I think could steam the most,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: where like, it's not a game environment that people like,
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: but it's a passing stack that people really like. I
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: think Nico could get higher on than people expect. Dalton
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: Schultz could very very much steam. And then like if
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: people are saying, oh, I really like Nico here, I
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: really like Schultz here, oh I might as well just
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: use the fifty five hundred dollars Stroud. And so it's
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: one where like the quarterback could just be brought on
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: by the weapons that people like. And then beyond that,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: there's not really anyone that I think is gonna get
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: much ownership. Maybe Gardner Minshew will end up a little
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: bit popular just because people like Kelsey and Hollywood and
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: Worthy here and there's you know, they're starting to be
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: the narrative that, oh, Tennessee can't stop anyone. And it
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: might be Kelsey's last three games and they want to
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: really let him go out on a high note now
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: that they're eliminated. So maybe he'll end up somewhat popular
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: since he's only forty five hundred dollars, But that would
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: really surprise me, And honestly, like, are we really saying
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: that the first time Kansas City really spikes all year
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: is after they lost their best receiver and their Hall
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: of Fame quarterback. Like that just doesn't seem like the
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: highest probability play to me. So yeah, I think you
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: can kind of just do whatever you want down here.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: If you're not playing into any of the jock.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Don't tell me with a good time. I can tell
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: you right now. This trophy is the second place King
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: of the Beach one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Do
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: you know who my quarterback was?
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: Was it Minshew with Dallas Goddard.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: I lost to Minshew Dallas Goddard because I didn't stack him.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: I just played naked Minshew and stacked up the lineup
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: with like all the studs. It's a fifty person field
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: right once you get to it. Obviously got to win
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: into King of the Beach when they used to have
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: a King of the Desert. It's now very similar, but
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: you'd win your way in, get to the second round,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: and then the second round you play off with everybody
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: who made it to the live final. And that was
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: a Minshew stack. So he likes his tight end and
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: you talked about it especially if like worthy, I mean,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I think it's worthy more than Hollywood round both probably
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: but worthy. You should pick up Steam. I think got
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: wide receiver at just that cheap price tag with no
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Rice now, so I like the idea of just him
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: and Kelsey and and honestly, look, even if Kelsey gets
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: some ownership, I still think you've got fannin junior with
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: noan joke who knows, like, say, similar spot he's been.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously he's great, but that's why there's you know,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: possibly twenty percent in small fields. So Schultz picking up
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: the steam. The interesting thing about your secondary quarterback group, though,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: because I think you nailed it, is like Olave has
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: stem Like has some love, Johnson a little bit right,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: but behind some of these other guys. Nico currently shows
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: not as much love, but Schultz shows a ton of love,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: and then Courtland Sutton shows a lot of love, but
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Evan Ingram doesn't. And I do wonder just because what
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: people are comfortable with right when you look at these games,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: this is kind of how I think about these things.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: For again, it's all about getting the owner. People forget
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: how important it is, but getting the ownership right is
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: extremely important. That's where the difference lies, especially if you're
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: using contest sims. But even if you're not, whatever you're
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: trying to leverage, the more you can know when it
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: comes to ownership. That's why we spend so much time
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: at it. I know you guys do as well, but
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: that's where we really put the effort in and PGA shit,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: it's a massive advantage because people literally just copy and
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: paste their ownership from the main slate and then there's
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: like a massive weather advantage on a Saturday morning Round
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: three and it's like, Wow, good job on the worst
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: ownership projections in the industry. As we're all grinding it
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: and digging in to make it right. So just noting it,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: I don't. I mean a d Mitchell on the other
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: side of the shuck stacks at least could make it work.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: So if people got to shuck with Olave Johnson Mitchell, Okay,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: maybe I see that one. It's the other two that
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: I talked about, So where was it here? The other two?
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: You said shuck, you said Nicks, And then there was
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: one more. Who's the other one? Shuck Nicks Stroud. Let
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: me let me find that afternoon afternoon game and it's
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: the other side of that. So the thing about that one,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are on the Houston defense, right,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: the running back room, the stuff with all that stuff
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: was whatever. So what I'm seeing is Sutton is still
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: getting the ownership. People can pick a jag, even if
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: it's just Jacoby Myers or ETN Junior or whatever. They're
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: not getting a ton of love. But like people can
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: find a jag in the Houston game, nobody want Everyone
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: thinks you need a run back, and nobody wants to
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: pick a run back, right. They just want to say
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the defense is gonna crush them. They have such a
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: low total everything like that, you don't have to have
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: a run back. You just need to think can they
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: keep up? So the Stroud Collins Schultz lineup if it
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: could keep Collins down, because the other thing about Collins
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: is he's seventy five hundred, right, you can easily get
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: up to Saint Brown for a little bit more. You
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: can go down. The same conversation happens when we get
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: to Ceede Lamb or whatever. But just noting it, you
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: don't need to run it back. They're not scheduled to
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: put up very many points. What I think is interesting
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: with the Stroud stuff is an onslaught because it's basically
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: you could just go Stroud, Collins, Schultz. They're gonna their
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: scheduled to score almost thirty points and you don't need
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: the other side to keep up for that. That could
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: just be they pour it on through those three guys,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: and if you wanted to, that'd be a way to
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: play one of the most popular defenses in a different
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: way as well. Just Stroud, Collins Schultz, Texans. So I
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: don't we'll get to ways to leverage the common building.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: But of all that, all the things you mentioned, I
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: thought that was an interesting standout piece for that. I
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: do like some of those other stacks that you mentioned
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: as well. Anything else you want to talk about a
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: wide receiver or tight end specifically with the pass catchers.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's I think this is such a weak wide
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: receiver slate, especially like in the mid range and the
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: higher end, like we don't have you know, we don't
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: have Puka on this slave for example, we don't have
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: the Philly offense, not that they've been great by any means,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: but when you have worse spend up options and then
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: you look at the running backs and you see Gibbs
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: Bijon h Chan in Great Spots. I do think it's
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: worth exploring stacking options that say, Okay, what if I
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: just save as much money as possible so I can
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: fit all three of those superstar running backs. It's doable.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: I found a couple of stacks that do it, and
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: it does actually look pretty decent. So I don't want
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: to like give away the exact stacks that do that,
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: because there are only so many lineup combinations that you
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: can use with that, and we'd run into an issue
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: that we're all dipping each other. But it's it's definitely
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: an interesting way to build, and it's it's more doable
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: this week than most.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the key part of what you said.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: I hit on this a little bit the show yesterday
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: with Mayo's like, once you get like the stacks are
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: actually gonna be different enough that you can just play
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: this the stud shock running backs like everybody wants to,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: but there's only so many of those and they kind
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: of land the same way. So it's like that's also
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: not always the greatest thing. I mean, obviously, in a
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: higher dollar, smaller field, you can get away with it
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: even easier because less likely that people are gonna be there.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: But overall, it's like in you know, PGA DFS, when
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: you've got like Scottie Scheffler and this value play. Yes,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: there's four spots left to get different, but remember like
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: you're kind of all landing in the same zone range
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: and then you end up wondering why on Sunday you're like, man,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: these two guys have I just had those two insteads?
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Like everybody has that two v two away because you
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: started the same way, so your your inners were kind
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: of different. If you're starting with the same stack landing
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: on the same running backs, you can just plug in
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: different versions around it. All. Right, before we go to
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: how to leverage the common build and start talking about
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: more of these games stacks, we already hit on a
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: few of them and different combos and stuff. I think
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: it's pretty clear the common build is the Pittsburgh Detroit
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: game mixed up, whether it's with Goff and the two
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: run or the running back and however you look at that,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: it's Fannin, who we talked about at tight end, who's
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna be popular there. It is guys like you know,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: metcalf Amen, Rod Jamison, Williams Worthy. Those guys are kind
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: of filling out the wide receiver positions, and then when
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: you go to running back, it's like some combo of Gibbs, Robinson.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: I'll say, game well, Aaron Jones and Michael Carter like
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: maybe those five and then yeah, others could steam up too,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: but I definitely think it's more interesting to see that
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: others are staying down. And that's kind of a good segue.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: But is there anything else that you want to talk
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: about about the common build before we move on?
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: No, I think that pretty much covers it. The only
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: other thing I'd say is there there is a choice
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: that seems that people have to make where they're either
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: going in on the Detroit passing game, so Jamison and
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Saint Brown and maybe the Metcalf bringing back as well,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: or they're going all the way in on stud running backs.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: And so if you want to just think about, like, Okay,
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: that's the easiest thing that I can do to be different.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: One option is to go to an expensive passing stack
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: that isn't Detroit. If you do that, you're going to
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: be different at running back because you can't get the
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: stud running back combinations and you're going to be different
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: at the stack because you're going to a pricey stack
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: that isn't Detroit. So that is certainly an option. But
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: in terms of just like what people are doing, what
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: the common build is, I do think there's a very
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: clear trade off between getting as many of the stud
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: running backs as you possibly can, and particularly we're talking
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: about Bjon and Gibbs, or going to the expensive Detroit
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: passing stack that won everything on.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Lastly, Yeah, that's what I'm seeing there as well. So
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: all right, I was just looking at one other thing
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: somebody mentioned, but yeah, I don't see it here, So
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: all right, let's move on. Let's go to what we
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: talk about next. Has always had leverage to common build.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: We've talked about a few of those spots. You've hit
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: on a few like the Warrant thing. I think is
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: interesting if Houston d' is gonna be popular and jamming
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: that stack, who's behind at least three to four other stacks,
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: probably where you can kind of stack that up and
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: just hope for the onslaught. I don't think you're trying
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: to find a raider to run it back with, and
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: it's not one where you need to really think about
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: can they keep up. It's just like, can these guys
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: score with their stack certainty and the condensed offense that
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: they typically have and actually get there? I mean, if
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: they would throw Nico Collins the ball more than twice
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: in a game when he starts the game with like
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: a sixty yard catch, you think they would do pretty good.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: But it's like, man, they just shut it down sometimes.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: But I think there is some other interesting ways to go.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: So where do you want to start when it comes
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: to other ways to leverage the common build? I think
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: there's a couple of really good game stacks. One we
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: talked about pre show. But I'll let you kick it
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: off and take us wherever you want to take us first.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think if we're we're talking about this,
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: it's like, okay, what's the coming build? Is people are
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: either trying to jam as many of the started running
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: backs as possible or paying up for Detroit. Like we
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: kind of mentioned it every week, but it's true every
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: week mid tier stack builds that kind of hammer the
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: mid tier wide receivers and they say, okay, what if
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: I don't pay down at wide receiver at all? That
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: seems to be a really good kind of option. Here,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: and so the first game that stands out to me
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: is actually Carolina and Tampa Bay, where I think you
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: might be on the Tampa side more. I'm going to
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: be more on the Bryce side and say, when you
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: look at what Bryce Young has done over the last
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: year and a half two years at this point, it's
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: it's very clear that he does not have a good
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: meeting outcome. He's a terrible floor outcome, but he's a
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: really really good ceiling outcome. And all of those ceiling
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: outcomes come when they are down and in chase mode.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: And I do think the Tampa Bay offense potentially they
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: really haven't been that good, and Baker clearly seems injured
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: to some degree, but they're healthier than they've been all season.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: The chance exists that they jump out to an early
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: lead and Bryce has to play that kind of catchup
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: game for three of the four quarter or something like that,
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: and that really unlocks of ceilings. So something like Bryce Young, Tet,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: maybe Cocher, or you just single him with Tet and
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: then go like Bucky Irving and Mike Evans on the
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: bringback or something like that, That to me is really
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: really intriguing where you end up playing four guys that
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: all have really good ceilings together and they are extremely
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: well Corely.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: I like stacking the Tampa side if I'm playing Evans
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: more because I like Evans for like a two touchdown
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: game and then it's auto two touchdowns to Baker Mayfield.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: But I think your interesting side that you brought up
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: that I think you could do it a ton of
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: different ways is if you go like Bryce Young, tet Cocher,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: and then Bucky and you could add a Godwin and
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: booka someone to speed up the game even further. But
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: like Bucky is the hope that he's speeding the game
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: up and get it going back and forth there because
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: these guys, I mean, there's a chance that it goes
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: back and forth, but they don't know the best pass defenses,
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: so it's like you know, and it's not like Caroline
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: has really good anything, and the rush defense can get
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: ran all over too. So I think what's interesting is,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: like you said, if you go Bryce, tet Coker, Bucky
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: and then make your call and if you want to
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: add something else, that's probably the more interesting way. But
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: I also think back to the original point of when
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: you find these balanced builds is like Baker and then
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: two of let's say Godwin Igbuca Evans, and then a
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: Tet on the other side, you just are already forced
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: into the mid tier. Your chance is now of getting
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: a Chan Gibbs, Beije on. All those guys just kind
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: of out the window. But there is enough running backs
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: in that five k range. There is double tight end
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: options that you can go to. There is a fourth
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: wide receiver that can fit this and make it all work.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: And I think that's kind of where I'm at with
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: that game. I don't know if you want to extend
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: further on it, but I do just want to say
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: that The next one I kind of want to bring
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: up that is similar to me is the vikings at
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: the Giant because it ends up very similar. Like if
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: you go McCarthy justin Jefferson, Addison Hawkinson with Robinson or something,
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: or flip it, go Dart Robinson, Slayton, THEO with Jefferson,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Like I'm going back to these triple stacks, but I'm
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: just saying, like those just automatically put it where you
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: may not get all those running backs in, but you're
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: gonna get enough good options in. And if that's the
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: game that goes off and is needed. I don't for
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: whatever reason. Maybe it's just me, but I don't. I
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: then don't have as much FOMO about the Detroit Pittsburgh
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: game because I've got a full game stack that I'm
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: trying to leverage it with, and I could still have
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: Montgomery and the Lions d I could still have Gibbs
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: as a one off and just hope it's Gibbs is
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: the guy you need and go from there. I don't
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: have to have a secondary a nothing. So I think
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: that's kind of how I'm thinking about it right now.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: What's your thoughts on that one?
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think what you were kind of touching on
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: at the end. There is this idea of matching ceiling
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: with or matching like a ceiling fade if you're fading
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: the Detroit game with more ceilings. So for example, like
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: let's say let's say he went off the board with
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: a Minshew stack or something. Minshew doesn't have the kind
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: of ceiling where when he has a quote unquote good
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: or great game that it protects you from that Detroit game.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: Whereas if you go to a Jackson Dart, like we
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: know that if Jackson Dart has a ceiling game, he
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: has thirty points within his you know range of outcomes.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: No problem, He's still running a ton. Kafka said after
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: the last game that they're just not going to change
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: the way they play. He had nine for sixty three
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: on the ground last game. He had a forty yard
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: bomb right in Slayton's hands then went through Slane's hands,
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: or he would have had thirty last game. You know,
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: he he was on pace for probably thirty five to
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: forty against Chicago and he loved that name go Cuss.
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: So you are dealing with the very real concussion risk
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: if you do play Dark. But man, when when it
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: goes well for him, he's so clearly going to be
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: like the guy because if Dart has a ceiling game
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: and Jared off as a ceiling game, you're not getting
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: beat by golf with your Dark Dart. What Dart brings
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: with that rushing upside just totally makes up for it.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: So it really does protect you, where like you don't
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: even necessarily need that game to totally fail if you're
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: right about a Dart sack. So that is really intriguing
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: to me. And I will also mention that this Detroit
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: game is late, so The one instance where it would
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: be okay to ministack it is if your early stack
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: really goes off, and now you know, Okay, I'm actually
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: not going to get beat if this other game goes off.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: I just need to find the right combination of players
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: to add on this late slate. And then maybe you
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: go like something Gibbs and Metcalf or Saint Brown and Metcalf,
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: and you just say, I'm just playing the two best
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: guys in the late window because I already have such
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: a good start that I know I'm going to win
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: as long as I get these next two guys right,
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: and so then it's okay to go with the mini
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: stack in that late game. Kind of another it's actually
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: the second straight week where the best game is in
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: the late window. So we do have some advantage of
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: you know, we're able to play the best game environment
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: even though it's so chalky, because number one, we have
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: ways to get contraria, but also because maybe we have
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: enough information with the early window then we know that
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: we just we've already gotten our separation. We just need
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: to preserve that advantage.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: That's the key component there that you said, is like
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: the when you talk earlier about like the secondary stacks
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: and threading the needle. Well, from the beginning, it's threading
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: the needle when you get what like I was talking
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: with the puzzle right that we build the same puzzle,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: we don't know what it looks like. We don't get
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: the front of the box pitcher until the end of
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: the slate, but halfway through the slate or in this case,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: it's usually like, you know, whatever it is, I don't
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: know to split this week exactly how many games is
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: the afternoon this week? Three one, two, four, four? Yeah,
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: so seven games. You're more than more than half the
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: puzzle is now on your page. You already know what's
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: going mean now, it can play out a little bit differently.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Some pieces can get shifted around because how the afternoon
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: plays out. But I'm just saying you definitely have more
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: knowledge and a bigger advantage at that point. So you know,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: at that point, to me, it's that's where I'm okay.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: If that's gonna get me eight point higher projection, it's
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: not NBA, I don't really care that much, but at
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, I am gonna try and
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: thread the needle at that point. If it puts me
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: in a better advantage spot. So that's a little bit
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: different than what we were talking about when we're telling
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: people how you want to start it. But back to
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: your point in the other factor is like when I
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: mentioned the Fomo piece and what you talk about like
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: the ceiling match with ceiling, It's like in a Dart
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Robinson Jefferson lineup, let's say where I know I may
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: not get to these expensive running backs and get their ceilings.
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for Dart to have a ceiling game through Robinson.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for Jefferson to have more of a ceiling
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: game through whether it's McCarthy or the opposite side of that.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna make it up that I'm hoping now
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: that Gibbs has like a twenty one or twenty four
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: point game, and Michael Carter, let's say, who I haven't
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: instead has an eighteen point game or a seventeen point
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: game at his price tag, those are still more valuable.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: And I've made it up I beat you thirty, I
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: got your thirty with Robinson instead of giving Now some
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: people might have both. I'm just noting that's how I'm
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: looking at it to make it up versus if I'm
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: going the Minshew with Worthy with Kelsey, Well, yeah, I'm
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: gonna end up in a similar spot to most, but
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: it's because that's where I'm gonna get. I'm not gonna
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: get a full ceiling from those guys very often. I'm
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: trying to get the ceiling that's welcomed at a four
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: to five K price, Eagg. They're all at for as
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: much as I can, but to make it afford those
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: bigger ceilings in the other spot. So I'm using some
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: certainty or some pricing or thing. It's not always certainty,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: but like stack certainty of I feel better about like
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: a minshew Worthy Kelsey and they could still spread it around,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: but I feel better about that to now get me
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: the more likely ceiling at the running back position than
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: some other stacks. But I do like that Vikings Giants
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: game there as well. Was there other game stacks or
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: things that you were looking at, like, well, what about
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: the Arizona Atlanta game? Just because of the setup where
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: it started out like it was gonna be popular. I'll
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: say this. With the Marveson Marvin Harrison Junior stuff, I
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: feel like it's brought everybody down some. We're still not
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: seeing ownership on McBride, we'll still probably see it on Bijon.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: But the other thing I think, I think the Pits
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: ownership came back from the start of the week as well,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: Like people are just negative about him, like there's no
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: way he can do it again now that London's back,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. But with London back, your boy
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Mooney has to be back in play. He's no good
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: when he's the only wide receiver in town. He's he's
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: good when everyone's playing. But like there's Bijon, London, Mooney, Pitts,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: Carter who people already like Brissett, who people kind of
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: already like Marvin Harrison Junior, Trey McBride, who's literally putting
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: up CMC and those guys type numbers at seventy six hundred.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: I know it's that tight end, but that's a different bill.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: What's your thoughts on this game?
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is a really interesting one, and
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: you're you're one hundred percent right about the ownership. Michael
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: Wilson has plummeted in ownership with Harrison looking like he's
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: gonna play, Pitts has plummeted in ownership with London looking
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: like he's gonna play. I will say I think the
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: pit's ownership falling is justified because Pitts was kind of
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: in the Drake London role with without London, so that
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: very much, you know, it hurts him now that London's back.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: I think there's a really really interesting stack here, which
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: is a Cousin's double stack with London and Mooney as
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: you said, and then Trey McBride is the bring back,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: maybe even Michael Carter as a second bringback, where you're saying, like, look,
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: Arizona has played from behind in basically every single one
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: of Bessette's games. They've allowed forty points in four of
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: the last six of their games. But what if they
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: actually start hot and start with the lead and it's
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Atlanta that has to track them down. They're probably going
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: to be able to do so efficiently. And then that's
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: also leveraging Jon Robinson. So I think that's a really
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: interesting way to build, and it's definitely worth a shot
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: if you're building multiple lines, because when we look at
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: like all the games on this slate, what are the
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: games that could really really go off in a huge way.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: Obviously Detroit Pittsburgh, we just mentioned New York and Minnesota.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: I kind of think the second most likely game to
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: really take off though on this late is this Atlanta
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: Arizona game, And I really like the idea of playing
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: it through Kirk Cousins because I think there's a very
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: clear way where you're leveraging the lot of the build
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: and getting this fantastic game environment out of it, for sure.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: And I think the best way to put it is
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: how many people would get to this game stack but
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: not have any of Bijon, Pitts or Brissette and potentially
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Carter because like I said, you could go Cousins London,
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Mooney McBride still have money left over because Mooney's four
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: K and Cousins is forty eight hundred, so it's not
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: like you're breaking the bank on them. So there is
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: a potential to get different there, for sure. So I
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: do like that call. Another one I wanted to talk
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: about quickly was the bo Nicks side of things. Again,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: he's mentioned, for sure, but I don't know. Harvey says
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: he's getting a little ownership. I don't know if I
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: believe that either, to be honest, just because he's sixty two.
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: There's all the guys in the five K between Gainwell Carter,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: who we just talked about earlier, we talked about Aaron
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: Jones Sr. Then you've got Bijon Gibbs, potentially a chen
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: et cetera. And then the secondary guys that people are
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: gonna get to if if they're getting other spots. So
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: bo Nick Sutton looks like he's getting a little low
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: Ingram people tease. This is leverage Lane, not Narrative Street,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: the revenge game for Ingram. But you know the way
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has been playing lately and etn Junior. I
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: don't know if they're gonna do that again, but the
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: thought process of what we continuously talk about on this show,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: can they keep up? Can they make this a game?
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: I think yes? And therefore you could see Bonnicks and
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence slinging it back and forth, almost like I
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: could see JJ McCarthy and Jackson Dark just kind of
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: going at it back and forth. And that's what you
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: could see here. So what's your thoughts on bo Nicks
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Lawrence this Broncos Jags game.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not I'm not super enticed by it. I
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: think both defenses are are pretty capable, and especially Jacksonville, Like,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: if they get their way, they are keeping the ball
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: on the ground. They're not throwing it a ton there.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: They're trying to, you know, really hold onto the ball,
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: and that also is just a more likely way to
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: attack a team that has the kind of pass rush
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: to the Denver has. So I don't see this game
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: environment becoming anything good where you're really just relying on
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: pure efficiency, and both defenses are good enough where they're
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: probably able to stop the pure efficiency runouts. So I'm
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: not interested in this game much at all. I don't
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: think I'm interested in any individual plays either. We just
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: have better game environments kind of all around in my opinion.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't hate on like Sutton or Myers. And
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: then if I'm stacking it, I'm like Nick, it's pretty
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: easy to stack. It's like Nick Sutton Ingram Myers. I
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: don't see the run game on either side being extremely powerful,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: but again, like one offs or something ways to get different,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: that's where you can play one offs. No one's really
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: on it. This is to Alex's point earlier. If you play,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: if you do play r J. Harvey and ends up
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: coming in lower owned, as I expect, it's like you
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: might have yourself a really good option. I know it's
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: not the best matchup, but at home, favorites almost twenty
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: five point implied team total. He's typically the guy if
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: they get that opportunity. It could be like seventy yards
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: on the ground and a couple touchdowns at the goal
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: line or something like that, and that ends up being
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: valuable on this slate at sixty two hundred. So what
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: else we didn't talk about? Miami me didn't talk about
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: much about the Chargers and the Cowboys. I think those
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: are kind of the two others that we want to hit.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: What else do you got?
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: I do want to touch one second on Sun I
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: think it's a really good call. I do think he's
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: definitely the best player from the game. It is worth
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: noting Jacksonville is still a good matchup for wide receiver ones,
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: but they have been a lot better against wide receiver
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: ones over the last month or so than they were
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: up to that point. To but you know, prior to
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: the last month, they were easily the best wide receiver
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: one matchup. Now they're just slightly positive. So in the
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: last month they've actually probably been slightly negative for wide
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: receiver ones. The Dallas game is also an interesting one,
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: and it shouldn't shock us if it does go off.
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: One of the things here is like the Chargers like
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: to keep everything in front of them, and they're pretty
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: good at doing that. So it's a very bad matchup
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: for Pickens, and Pickens is kind of the engine that
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: you know takes Dallas games to the next level. When
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: pick has a big game, the game speeds up, you
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: get the explosive plays, and now all of a sudden,
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: you're in a great game environment. When Pickens doesn't do much,
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: the game environment hasn't been anywhere near as good. So
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: that's why I'm not super interested in this game. But
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: it's obviously a good spot for the LAC passing game.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: I think part of that is the Dallas run defense
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: has been better, so this could be a spot where
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: we see a really high pass rate from the Chargers.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: The promise Dallas also gets pressure and this Chargers offensive
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: line isn't good, so you know, whether it's through play
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: calling in terms of handing the ball off or play
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: calling in terms of let's just do a lot of
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: you know, DNK and don't get the ball out of
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: Herbert's hands quickly. None of that says explosive plays and
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: so on both sides of the ball, I just see
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: a lot of short completions and not the type of
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: explosive that you need to take a game environment to
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: the next level.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: If you're looking at the Dallas side. You mentioned negatives
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: for George Pickens, and I know we're waiting on like
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: QJ news, and technically there's been like some you know
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: whatever practice reports and things on like Javonte and Lamb,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: but I don't expect them to be out. I'm just
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: noting it. So Lamb or Williams, Who do you think
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: is more likely to be a good run back in
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: the spot? If you were going to go like a
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: Herbert let's say, and I'm going Herbert Alan McConkey, what
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: would you feel best about Javonte somehow finding a way
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: on the ground that sort of a weird price tag,
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: or would you know c CD, like we talked about earlier,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: he lands in that kind of dead zone too, because
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: aman Ron guys like that, Like I think Jamar Chase
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: just above him, right, and then you got guys a
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: lot of guys below him. What are your thoughts on that?
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think I do think it would be Javante.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: The Charges are interesting because for a lot of this
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: season the Charges were very okay with teams running the
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: ball successfully against them, and it just hasn't been the case,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: Like their success rate alout on the ground has been
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: really good of late. So that's the one thing that
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: makes me kind of want to say Lamb. The problem
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: is like, when I think of, okay, who does Javonte
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: Williams need to beat in his price range? At his position?
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: You've got Bucky Woody, march Rico Dad or r J Harvey.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: I like Gavonte's chances there. When you look at the
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: wide receiver position, who to city Lamby to beat Nico Collins.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: I'm un ross Saint Brown. I don't like his chances there.
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: I really prefer Collins and Saint Brown. So I even
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: prefer Drake London down at seven thousand dollars, I think,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: so in that regard, I will go Javonte. But are
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: there are you know, causes of concern there in the matchup,
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: given how much better the Charges have been with their
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: run defensively.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: So you say that stuff so naturally, And I think
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: this is why I love calling this stuff out. Why
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: I love this show because it does become second nature. Right,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: you're thinking automatically about slate dynamics, position, scarcity, all these
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: factors that aren't second nature to everybody else. So I
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: think this is important to call out, is how many
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: times have people watching this and I know you have
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: your watches, you're in the chat whatever, and the lever
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: pi like it's definitely happened where you essentially build a
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: lineup and you're like, yeah, but Lamb makes it make
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: sense and so you just run with it. But to
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: your point is well, that could be true. It's like
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: from a from a slate dynamics perspective, there's like six
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: guys that can crush them above and below. And it
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: just because he would make this work doesn't mean he
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: will and doesn't mean he still won't get beat by
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: somebody else who has something else there versus Javonte. Look,
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: when you've already got a six K Herbert, a sixty
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: one lad, just making this lineup up and talking about
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: it as a whole, you don't you won't necessarily be
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: able to get to those expensive running backs. You might
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: need to stay balanced. And then that's when people say,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: and of course this lucky guy got to Herbert Monkey
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: and Alan and somehow had Javonte in there, you know
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: what I mean, Like of Court and Javonte has the
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: three goal line touchdowns or something, and it's like just
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: tilts everybody. But it's like your thought process on that
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: is so smooth around how you get there as opposed
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: to like it does. It's again, it's not about the
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: pick or the play. It's not who you play, it's
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: how you play it. It's the why. It's it's the
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: actual how the slate shapes up. It's like, yes, Lamb
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: would and could make it work, but it's it's not
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: really good considering what's around him that can still take
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: him out. And that's especially important the larger field you're in,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: even a single entry, if you're in a five thousand
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: plus person single lantry. It's great that you're playing single
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: entry and you got equal chances to everybody else in
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: the tournament, but that's a huge thought process because somebody
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: in there could still have aman Ra plugged in or
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: something along those lines where they just crush you with
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: that and it's like whatever, whatever. So I just think
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: that's important to think about.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: And it's all about this concept of separation, right, because
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: if what I'm essentially asking there is if I get
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: a good game from Lamb, if I get a good
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: game from Javonte, who's more likely to create separation for me.
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: And separation only happens when you consider who they're up against.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: And so if Lamb gives me twenty five, he's probably
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: not separating from that group of Saint Brown, Nico Collins,
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: Straight London. If Javonte gives me twenty, there's a decent
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: chance that he gives me separation from Bucky Dwell, Harvey
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: Woody Marks who you know, the best score from that
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: group might be twelve or fourteen, So twenty can be
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: can be that separator.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I remember too what you just said. I
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: want to interject, and sorry to cut you off, but
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: just to say it's like, that's the other factor. So
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: many people relate separator just to ownership and just to leverage.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: So they would say, what do you mean the guy
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: they're like, Lamb is low owned, he'd be the guy
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: that would separate me. It's no, it's Lamb is lower owned.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: But he has to separate from so many potential really
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: good options going in around him. And just because he's
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: lower owned. Doesn't make that better in that case, right,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: You still have to think about the slate as a whole.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Javante you can't really afford very easily in this example
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: of the build these expensive running backs on top of
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: the fact that who he has to beat is not
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: as many. And it's like some of the chalk value
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: running backs that could be perceived as bad chalk eventually
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: because if they get over owned for their spot too,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: it's like, well, that's another thing I got Javonte in check.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: In this game, a ten percent Javante is still higher
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: owned than an eight percent Lamb, but he's way lower
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: owned than what could be a twenty five percent gain
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: Well for more money, And that's the separation factor over
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: the gain Wells, the Michael Carter at fifty four hundred,
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: the Aaron Jones Senior at his price tag. It's like
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: he's he's a little bit more than those guys, but
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: he's the true separator at the position and still fits
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: the game stack as opposed to Lamb on paper at
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: lower ownership. Hopefully that resonates with people and Robert, I
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: don't know if it's your first week here, my friend,
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: but hopefully not. We do this every week. We have
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: a strict strategic way to go through it where we
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: get to it at the very end of the show
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: every single week, so you won't miss out as long
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: as you got that. So someone said chargers off o
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: verus tight end. I think Fergie gets too in that game.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: That's another interesting thought if you wanted to go there,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: only because at least in that game stack, if you're
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: on it, Fergie as a one off. Again, he's not
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: a one off when you're putting into the game stack,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: but I mean as the only play from that side
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: is usually like ah, not sure. But when you think
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: about the fact that like Fannin is one hundred dollars more,
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: you could plug in Fannin And that's kind of the
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: Lamb versus the other guy's thought process. But if you
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: filling out, I would prefer it more in a onesie
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: position where most people are doing it, where I'd like
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: to Alex's point on Lamb, that's not a onesie position.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: That's you can play four wide receivers, and there's eleven
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: games with tons of wide receiver options. The tight end
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: just a little bit different as far.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: As that's also not quite true the Chargers are actually
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: keeping opponent tight ends to one point eight fewer fantasy
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: points per game than they average. I'm that's according to
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: our DVA just a fantasy points against data, so that's
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: opponent adjustin and then also there are some DVOA inspired
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: adjustments to it. If you're just looking at raw fantasy
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: points per game allowed, maybe they look worse. I don't
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: to be honest, I don't look at that data, so
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know it, but it is worth considering. Like
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: they've played Travis Kelce, Dallas godd Brock Bauers in their
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: last three games, so it would be a little bit
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: understandable if they look worse from a raw fantasy points allowed.
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Yes, huge, for sure. I saw this question earlier, so
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: I answered now again, like this is a theme of
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: at least in our discord with FanDuel questions and with
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: the just in general, Like the way to win a
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: tournament is to score the most points. I'm not being rude.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying it, like you have to figure it out,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: but all these concepts apply regardless of the site that
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: you're on. The best way to attack is to recognize
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: the field size that you're playing against. What type of
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: entries people have in the Gunslinger on FanDuel this week.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's like sixteen fifty or whatever. Like I
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: played the Fan Championship last week, you could max it out.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: I played ten entries. I played to win. I know
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: that everyone's gonna have these types of lineups. I'm gonna
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: play these types of lineups. So you have to pick
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: your lane, just like we talk about on here, especially
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: if you only have one. Most people aren't gonna have
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: multiple entries in a almost two thousand dollars by in tournament.
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: So the best way to attack it is not do
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: what everybody else is doing, because you're gonna be covered.
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: Like if you think you're gonna run the exact same
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: lineup as everybody else with goff Amanrod Jamison, Williams, DK Metcalf,
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: the popular cheap running backs, you're crushed. Everyone has that
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: at least once, and then some people have multiple versions
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: of it, and then some people have the versions that
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: come over the top of it with like gain Well
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: and Mouth or Warren and Mooth. There's something you can
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: just get destroyed. So my best advice, you know, started
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: out more direct just so you get it, but secondly
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: I would say, like you would, you would definitely want
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: to not play the same build everyone else has if
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: you only have one entry, because they have multiples and
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: there's multiple people with multiples, so you put yourself in
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: an even worse spot trying to land on the exact
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: same thing everybody else does. So still got to score
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: the points where you do go don't go crazy. I'm
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: just saying you're not going to get there typically going
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: with the same build everyone else has, so got to
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: think of it from that perspective. All right, anything else,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: I guess the last one I want to touch on.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: I know we're you know at the hour, but we
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: usually go long er anyway. It's fine, we'll get to
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: the leverage lane here in a little bit. But the
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: last one I want to touch on at least for me,
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: and if you got more, we can. But was the
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Dolphins at home versus the Bengals. You've got a four
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars quarterback. That of note, was where Minshew was
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: at that week when I played him. You could play
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: him at four thousand. I think Gotard was four k
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: and it was like eight K for a quarterback starting
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: tight end. But Dolphins do have a pretty healthy team
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: total at home. If you're not on Waller in the
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: great tight end matchup, if you're not on Waddle for
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: some leverage, if you're not on a chan who looks
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: like he's coming in lower owned in a great matchup
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: against the Bengals at home? What are you doing here
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: with this spot, Alex? And how do you treat this?
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Because I think you nailed it last week when you
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: said just leave that. If you're you don't have to
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: go to that Cincinnati Baltimore game, you could just leave
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: it alone. And I think between Gaseki, Tinsley, Andrews and
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: likely between all four of those value plays, three of
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: them being tight ends, I literally think they got three
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: for thirty five or something across all of them, and
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: that's catches and yards. It was very bad for a
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: lot of people. It cost them a lot of money,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: and I feel bad about that, but just noting it
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: was including myself in spots it was not good. But
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: what's your thoughts in this Dolphins game at home versus
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: the Bengals.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: If that Bengals Ravens game was incredibly weird because the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: Baltimore offense was hyper efficient, but it didn't go through
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: the tight ends. It was basically just all the running backs.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: And they also only ran forty plays. That's astonishingly low
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: number of plays in an NFL game. The Bengals ran
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: seventy one. It's very rare that number one. You see
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: that kind of disparity in plays. But then it's extra
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: rare that you see that disparity in plays where the
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: team who had more plays lost twenty four to nothing.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: So just an incredibly weird runout. But yeah, I so.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: One of the things that I do in my discord
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: is I have a game environments chart where I'm just
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: kind of using stats from from the last eight weeks
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: to predict passing EPA per drop back success strate and
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: explosive pass rate, and then adjusted lineyard success rate and
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: explosive run rate on the ground. And this is a
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: little bit conditional on TUA, so we don't have Tua,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: we have Quinnewers instead. But Miami's offense predicts incredibly well
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: in this game environment's chart. I do think they're going
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: to be hyper efficient. There's been this like growing narrative
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: around the history the Cincinnati defense has been better of late.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: I don't see that at all. In fact, over the
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: last eight weeks, you know, going back, I mean they
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: they even got just demolished by Justin Fields on the
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: Jets offense, and they've been they've been really, really bad
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: kind of again and again, as I mentioned this past week,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: like they allowed hyper efficiency from Baltimore, they just didn't
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: allow you know, huge yardage totals or points sols because
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: the Baltimore offense didn't have the ball very much. But
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: they're one of only three teams in the last eight
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: weeks to allow an above average EPA success strate and
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: explosive pass rate, and an above average adjust the lineyards
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: explosive rush rate and success right into the ground. The
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: only other two teams who meet that qualification are the
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: Commanders and the Giants. So that's that's the grip, right Bengals, Commanders,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: Giants that we can point to and say this all
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: around is just an atrocious defense. So I think Miami
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: very much can have success here. I also like the
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: fact that Miami they're at least two of the three
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: skill guys who like we know, are going to succeed
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: one of the offense succeeds are running back and tight
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: end a Chan and Darren Waller. Those are the two
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: positions that continue to just totally demolish the Bengals. The
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: Bengals are still the best matchup for opposing running backs
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: and the best matchup for opposing tight ends. So lots
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: of ways I think to play Miami, whether it's a
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: stack and you're using a Chan and Waller or Waller
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: and waddle or eight Chan and waddle, like anything that
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: you want to do, or you're just saying I'm using
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: one or two of these guys just as one off
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: skill guys, whether it's a Chan or Waller, I think
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: all of that is very much in play. And then
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: if you do stack it, I think going to Chase
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: or Higgins assuming he plays as a bringback, also makes sense.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: So you know, I mentioned I teased the fact earlier
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: that there are some offenses that you can use that
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: allow you to fit a Chan, Bijon and Gibbs. This
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: is one of those stacks if you just go to Miami.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I we'll say too. Like another factor is the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Higgins factor, Like you said, we'll see. It looks like
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to clear them, but we'll see.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: But he's also to me always fine as a one
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: off because what happens is people are playing Chase or
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: a game stack around or whatever. They never want him.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: And even when he has his great two touchdown games,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: which he's beat Chase on a ton of spots, you know,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: in the past few years, it's like it's if people
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: just don't see it. He's definitely a wide receiver one
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: for a lot of teams out there if he's not
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: with Jamar Chase number one on their team. So it's
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: like the look at that is if he plays at
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: sixty six hundred, that fits those balance builds that we
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: talked about again, and for yes, I prefer Jamar Chase,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: but it's no different on the weeks where DeVante Adams
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: when he used to be cheaper, much cheaper than Puka
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: those weeks and still get two touchdowns. It's like for
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: everything you're putting him in the lineup as you're already
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: saying he's gonna pull from Jamar Chase. And also back
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: to the Minshew conversation here that I've been having all
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: day about the trophy and whatnot, that I just said
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: eight K for two guys, seventy five hundred for yours
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: and Waller together, and again, who knows what could end
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: up happening. But it's like if they do anything, that's good.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: So I think that's another case. I want to answer
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: a couple questions. I'll keep on this game. First. I
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: know Timothy, Timmy Dubbs, my guy, he's got a couple here.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: But this is how you lose a lot of money
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: in DFS right here, concerning yourself with this, Like at
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: his price, a Chan definitely needs to be on the field. Facts. Yeah,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: I mean we know that, and you're my boy, so
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be mean to you here, but I'm
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: just saying, like that's the obvious. We know that he
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: has to be. But why do you think his ownership
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: is ten percent? Like people don't believe it, or they're
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: scared of it or all. I can just play the
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: other guy whatever. He's got the best matchup in the
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: game right now at home twenty five point team implied total.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: Like all these factors and when I say you lose
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: a bunch of money, here's why. Oh this week everyone
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: says David Montgomery's gonna be more involved. I'm gonna try
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: him out and play him at fifty one hundred. He's
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: three k more than Jamior Gibbs. Yet forty seven points
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: or oh sorry, fifty eight points, Jamiir Gibbs. Oh I
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: can't go back to Bejean Robinson. This Tyler Elgier guy
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: at the line every single time. Oh, it's just brutal.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: It's just brutal. Yet forty point thirty six points, whatever
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: it was, Bijon like these, you have to do this.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: It's the opposite effect is everyone Oh man, I really
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: should have got to goff Amanrow Jamison Williams last week,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: I didn't let me put all my money in the world.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: This week on it and hope that it doubles down.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: Like if you miss number twenty two on the roulette wheel,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: probably not. I mean, anything could happen is another spin.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: But like people piling in on twenty two, the next
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: spin doesn't always work out. It's totally different. It's a
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: bad example, but just a note of like the factors
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: of life, it's could it happen again? Yes? Is it
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: as likely?
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: No?
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: But people love to chase, and in the inverse to
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: your point here, people love to shy away. We make
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: the most money by not shying away in dfs, by
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: accepting the risk because of the reward that can come
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: with it, so and that for that reason, don't care.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: I'm playing AHN and if it fails me, then move.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: Last week, Darnald JSN failed me heavily. A lineup over here,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: and if you only got one, I get it. But
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: I can't stress this enough. One of my favorite points
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: Alex made all season. I talk about this in mentorship
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: stuff with people now and just going through it, I
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: think it's one of the best points brought up all
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: season was your point about playing three max like a
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: single entry. Ah, but I'm only a single entry player.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: You gotta respect my bankroll. You gotta respect this. You
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: play fifty bucks, play twenty, play twenty dollars three max,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: put ten bucks more in. It's the same shit, fifty
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: or sixty bucks. It's not like I'm saying, go from
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: fifty to five hundred here. Play three max like a
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: single entry, even if it means two lineups that are
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: very similar with the same quarterback and then flipping the
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: third one to leverage that. Oh, I was all over
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: Gibbs this week. I thought he was gonna crush I
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: knew Detroit was gonna put up these points and I
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: played three lineups. Well, what did your third lineup have
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: GoF and Omenro No I tried this, U Burrow, Tinsley,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: Guesseki stack out. Okay, So but you said you thought
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: Detroit was gonna score thirty points. Well, yeah, I had
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: Gibbs in those other lineups. Okay, but you didn't cover
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: your You wonder why you had all the right be
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: you fell. You had all the right pieces in all
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: the wrong places, but you had none of the right
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: pieces because it was gough Amanra Jamison, not Gibbs that
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: you needed. So you can cover your own ass and
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: do what I always call portfolio manipulation. So I don't know.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: I just think that's a big factor to your other
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: question here, Tim, I do think that's a good call.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: Like I actually think that's interesting. I'm not there sure, Alex,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: if you have any thoughts on this, but opposite side
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: of fan and almost similar price, same game. Gotta like
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: that for some leverage, and it's hard to pinpoint. But
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: at a one zie position, I wouldn't hate it. Fully.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: It's probably projects about five points less, but I don't
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: I don't hate it for sure.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: I'm not super into Kinkaid here. I think if you
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: are into Kincaid, you might as well take a shot
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: on Josh Allen because whenever one of his pass catchers
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: is going to hit in a big way, it's just
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: so hard for him not to hit. So yeah, to
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: mean it's an an Emmy only thing regardless, But I'm
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: not super into it. I think that's a really ugly
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: game environment.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't hate it as the set up there
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: that you said, and you're just making my points for
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: me here G six. Like I said that, it's not
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: outlandish to think it goes off. Again, what I'm saying
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: is in DFS, the recency bias of things happening are
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: in everything, whether it's in plays and or in formats.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: If Sunday Night Showdown is a five to one slate
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: and if five to one lineup smashes, it is almost
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: always massively owned the next day, regardless of what the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: slate is, because it just plays out that way. If
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: if a five to one failed on Sunday Night Football
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: in Showdown, this is just talking about roster construction theory.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: It's almost always the next day where people play less
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: five to one and you see a five to one
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: smash and win again. Not always, but it happens double
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: tight end weeks. Is it one? Possibly, it always is
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: with the way pricing sets up, at least on DraftKings.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: But I will say, you know, this is another thing.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: If two tight end lineups hit, they can go up
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: like twenty percent next week from like you know, you've
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: seen huge bumps in that the following week. The pricing
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: does dictate it a ton, But you can play golf
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: this week. I wasn't saying not to. He's certainly gonna
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: be in my portfolio. I'm just saying it's the note
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: of people. People like to chase what just happened. People
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: like to go against the things like the ach hand
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: stuff and all these other factors where it's like, oh,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: but he might not be in the field. We might
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: not and you might lose all that money. But if
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: you're not risking the money and he does go off.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: The week that people played Montgomery over Gibbs, the week
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: that people didn't play Beijean because they were scared scared
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: of Algier, those are the things that add up and
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: can cost you. And then you get in the part.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: You get in the stance of like, oh, that didn't
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: go my way, I gotta go you zig and zag
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: on all the opposite times, and that's what ends up
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: hurting people in dfs, where you've got to be willing
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: to embrace the ugly, the uncomfortableness, all those factors are
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: what come into it. So HM might not be on
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: the field this week, but I'll play them and find out. Yeah.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: I think a good way of saying what you're saying here,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: Tambo is to make decisions and to play things that
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: you have conviction on it, and not to make decisions
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: out of fear. And so if you're playing golf, it
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: should be because you have a conviction on golf and
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: you have a conviction on that stack, not because you're
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: afraid that you're going to miss out on it again
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: because you missed out on it last week or something
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: like that. Yes, and as long as you're playing your convictions,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: then you know, okay, I'm playing this for the right
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: reason and not because I'm making fear decisions. And that's
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: that's just going to put you in a better position
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: over time.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: And it sounds like for g six this is a
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: great thing. Like if that's your process, and this is
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: to Alex's point, if you're playing it at a my
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: process Let's say I'm G six and G six says,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: my process is I look at props. He's got the best.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: I look at the props on the other guys. They
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: pop the projection show up. Man, I really feel like
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: this is going to be another spot. It's not outlandish
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: to think that GoF goes off again. I'm speaking for you,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: but I think you get it, and I appreciate you
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: understanding the clarification and wanting to chat about this instead of,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: you know, going back and forth. I think it's good.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: It's it's good conversation. The point is, if that's your process,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: you're not doing it at a fear base. You're doing
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: it out of process, and now your thoughts are next steps.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: It's like we talked about it earlier. Is there a
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: way that I can get different? Do I need to
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: get different? Maybe you're on completely different running backs and
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: tight ends, and you're like, man, I found a lot
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: of the works. I can run this back with metcalf
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: because my running backs are like one percent owned, but
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling them this week. My conviction is on those guys.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: I like this cheaper defense and this tight end is
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: going to be eight percent owned. I'm good. If that's
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: how it sets up, then definitely do it. What we're
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: saying is more when people are making decisions because they're
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: scared of something, or making decisions because they missed out
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: on something, so they're kind of jumping in and out
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: of situational stuff. So I really like the conversation around that.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: This we talked about earlier. It's actually not about his upside.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the answer is to this question,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: but what the answer is from a DFS perspective is
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: he's four K and if he gets you fifteen, let's
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: say twelve to fifteen, you just don't know, that could
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: get you three running backs that I'll put up forty.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: And that's a way different lineup than a lot of
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: other people have. And if there's only so many ceilings
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: on the slate, et cetera, et cetera, that's where these
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: decisions come from. Again, all but he might bust, He
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: might be like the worst you know, of course, but
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: your lineup is gonna be in really good shape if
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: he does somehow do enough to come through, and you're
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: gonna have a completely different roster than those that aren't
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: in that spot. So the upside is more about what
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: does he do for your entire lineup? And that's what
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: we try and teach so much. Between Alex and I
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: Shippen Nation FTN with leverage lane, you fus mastermind all
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: these different things. We're trying to talk about teaching you
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: how to play, not talking about just who to play,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: And it's all about the full lineup. I mean a
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: lot of people can find plays they like, but then
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: they don't have to put it all together. The puzzle
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: is the most important thing. That's what gets you to
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: the top. So all right, anything we missed Alex, if not,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: you can take us right into your leverage lane for
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: the week. But I feel like we covered quite a
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: bit here. I'm happy with it where we're at.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, man, I don't know where I'm going with with
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: my leverage lane. Do you want to start? Do you
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: have something clear in your mind.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: Going back to it? I tried not to give it
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: away with all the excitement throughout the show, but we're
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: going back to it's gonna be minshew Worthy and Kelsey
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: don't need a run back much like last week with
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: the purty stuff. I'm just hoping that Tennessee does enough.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: They don't have an eleven or twelve point team total
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: like the Raiders do. They're definitely an opportunity here. I
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: think they do still. Look the Chiefs are. It doesn't
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: mean anything. It's not narrative Street here, it's leverage lane.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: But I'm saying they definitely are got to be embarrassed,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: like it's not a good season for them. It's unfortunate.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: What happened to Mahomes is like two minutes left in
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: the game when their season's gonna go down the hill.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: Probably anyway, it was like, man, that sucks, But I'm
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: going right back to it. Here he's forty five hundred,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: forty four hundred, forty seven hundred. I'm gonna triple. I'm
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: gonna go a double stack minshew Worthy Kelsey. I think
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: in my mme sets, I'll even have triples with Hollywood.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: But I have interested in this game, in this stack story,
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: and I don't need to worry about the rest of
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: the game. I just gotta play those guys, stack them up,
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: and then build my line up different elsewhere. So I'm
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: gonna go to minshew Worthy and Kelsey.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: I like it. So I'll start by saying, I'm I'm
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: still pretty unclear of which stack I'm gonna go to.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: I would say that I have four that I'm seriously considering.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: One is Pittsburgh Dallas in some way, I'm not sure
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: which way I would do that. Another is Atlanta, another
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: is Carolina, and then I also have some interest in Miami.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: So those are pretty much the stacks that I'm considering.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: I typically like to make my leverage lane something that
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: I'm confident that I'm gonna play regardless of what stack
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: I choose or this or that, So I'm struggling to
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: figure out exactly which one I want to give. But
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: there's a combination that I think works really well, which
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: is starting with a Detroit stack, and based on what
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: happens early, you have the option to pivot to the
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: Atlanta stack that we were talking about earlier, where it's
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: like Cousins Mooney London with a McBride bring back something
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: like that. So that's what I will go with here
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: kind of this start with Detroit. The thing I love
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: about this Detroit stack, as we mentioned, is we have
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: the option to go with Jalen Warren or Friar Youth,
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: both of whom give us a really really really low
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: owned guy. So turning a chalk stack doing it in
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: a contrarian way. But if things don't go well early,
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: if you still need more separation, more differentiation, now you
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: have the option to pivot to the Atlanta stack that's
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: very similarly priced. I haven't worked out exactly how to
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: set that up yet to say, you know how how
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: that switch is going to happen. I would like to
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: make it such that I'm only using one tight end
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: where like I don't want I don't want to be
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: going to McBride, but having McBride be my flex play,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: I want him to be the tight end play. If
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: I'm doing that where I'm I'm opening the potential to
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: just totally win the tight end position by like fifteen
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: twenty total points. So one way to do that is
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: start with Brian meth in the tight end spot and
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: then switch to McBride. But now you're not going to
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: get that pay I'm running back along with it, so
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: it's it's not an easy thing to do yet. It's
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: why this is probably like the messiest leverage lane that
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: I've had all season. But it starts with Detroit second
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: a contrarian way and leaves open the possibility to flip
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: over to that Atlanta sac that we discussed.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: I like it. Like I said, there's definitely a clear
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: spot on this late it is that game, like we mentioned,
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: it's just how do you go about doing it? For me?
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: Like I said, I think it'll be a lot more
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: and late swap will be a factor. That's another reason
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: why I didn't go there. But I will say an
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: added piece to it is I do like the Aaron
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: Rodgers side of it. I feel fine with, like, you know,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: a spot where it's like Aaron Rodgers metcalf Friarmuth and
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: then get Jamison Williams and Amendra in there, or get
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: Gibbs and Jmo or whatever whatever fits the rest of
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: your life. I'm just saying, starting with a five man
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: game stack there and doing it on the Rogers side,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: I'm just as fine with it, because then there'll be
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: flips of ways to get it to golf or whatever
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: you truly decide once the slate ends or once we
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: get more news or whatever you want to wait on
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: and decide on. That's just really how I look at it.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: But it's going to depend a lot on how your
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: early morning guys do, especially if you're on guys like
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: we talked about earlier with some of the the Chargers,
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: or if you're on Aaron Jones Senior, if you're on
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: a chan whatever it is, you start the day out
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: with a chief Worthy, et cetera. All those things, so
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: for me looking at it from that perspective, But make
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: sure to tune in next week. We talked about it already.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be the last episode this year for Leverage Lane,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: so we are gonna cut it off after that. But
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: it's the season finale, so you always want to come in.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: You always want to come back for the season finale.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: Don't miss that. If you want to check out what
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: we got going on over at ship at Nation, you
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: can do so. Go to the page click Join the
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: Nation if you want to check out and get in
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: on the action, try and win your way in for free.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: That's me holding a elf on the shelf with tongs
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: to not mess with the kids magic. And that was
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: day seven. Today, day eight, we'll go live very shortly.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: Go over to x at ship at Nation. Get in
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: for your chance to win eight months of all access
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: core to ship at Nation, and if you're already a member,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: we can work out a bill credit where for the
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: full of out the eight hundred, or we can set
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: it up where you can upgrade or use it towards
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: an upgrade, whatever it is you want. Alex, what do
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: you guys have going on this week and moving forward
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: for yourself as well?
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, well, I'll start by saying, you know,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: you tease it a little bit earlier, but there might
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: be an interesting announcement on next week's episode of Leverage
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: Lane as well, So definitely tune in there. And yeah,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: great time in the year we're gonna be doing you know,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: nfldfs through the playoffs over at f ten, I'm gonna
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: be doing it in my discord of course, Props and
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: pick them has been awesome this year. I tease it
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but I've got more props this week
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: than I have in any week all season, and a
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: big reason for that is just recently found completion percentage
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: props over an underdog and been hitting those at a really, really,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: really high rate. We kind of we've been hammering unders
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: on offensive rebounds all season over in the NBA as well,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: and we actually kind of forced Underdog to switch that
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: to only overs because we were doing so well on
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: those unders. So it's been a really successful season and
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: we're going to continue rolling that throughout the rest of
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: the NBA season, PGA, and of course the NFL playoffs
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: Awesome. Yeah, a couple more questions around the show this
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: one like, you don't know, one knows till you know.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: You can do the math on the point per dollar
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: right now on fifteen versus his four K salary and
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: twenty five versus Brissetts whatever, but it matters the rest
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: of the lineup, Like does the breset lineup not get
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: to Gibbs but the Ers lineup does, and Gibbs it
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: has fifty, Well, then it doesn't even matter. Yours could
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: have ten and it might be better in that scenario.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: So you won't know, but you can math out those
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: exact numbers. But that's the thought process around what you're
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: thinking about going into building with him.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: Yes, And the other important part of that answer is
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: what does it mean for this ski guy and who
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: are the skill guys? If yours fifteen is better than
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: presets twenty twenty five, if it means that Waller's catching
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: two touchdowns again and you have Waller at thirty five hundred, yeah,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: and it's you know, it's difficult to now predict who
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: presets twenty to twenty five fantasy points are going to
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: with with with Harrison. Fact so all those you know,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: all those questions are really important to answer when you're
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: when you're thinking about a hypo.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: Way too many factors and that's why we can't stress
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: it enough. Why your whole lineup matters, not just the
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: one v one of that, right, That's the thing and
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: why I know at our Discord and Ship and Nation
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: we really curbed it over the years and it's been
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: great because the one v ones and the two v twos.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: It's like people, there's so many factors to that that
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: you have no idea. Like you said, well, what if
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: you is your viewers with Waller who did nothing, versus
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: if someone has it with Wattle who got two touchdowns
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: and then you know he had a few, that's where
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: he got the majority of his points from. So things
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: like that, so so so close on the Slaton call
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: last week, I think you can use him again this week.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: But he almost had that touchdown too, and a few
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: other catches and then the last one was go ahead.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah on Slaton last week was kind of the ideal
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: matchup with Washington, a lot of single high, a lot
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: of man coverage, and just a really bad defense that
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: boost efficiency. This is not a good matchup. Minnesota plays
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: a ton of two high, they don't allow explosives. So
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: to me, this seems like a week where it's gonna
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: have to be more of THEO and Wandale un less
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: of Sleep.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you could stack it up the three man like
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: the double stack with Dart and then run it back
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: with set it up with Jefferson on the other side,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: or whatever you want to do there. But I think
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: that's definitely a good call. And then you know, Bergod says,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: would this be more of a three max to your point?
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: If you yeah, I mean, if that's the whole point,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: your angles should decide your contest selection. People are just like,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: I'm a single, let your guy I play it every week.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: Well what about the week you have five quarterbacks you're
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: choosing from. Are you really a single? I mean, you
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: say you are, so you just make yourself one, But
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: you're not like you have five possible picks this week
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: that you're even starting points that you can't figure out yet.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: So that's where you lose money too, because then you
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: force yourself into it. Then you're pissed off because you
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: had four other guys and one of them ends up smashing.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: You're like, I could have on them, and then you
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: chase good money with bad money because now you're mad
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: and you're not playing good or even thinking about it.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: So it all adds up. And I don't know how
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: this would ever be a thought, like you're always figuring
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: out the late swap, I mean realistically, and unless you've
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: used like seven guys in the morning and it's pretty
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: self explanatory for the afternoon. But if you're playing one
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: to three max and you've got those thoughts to Alex's point,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: you could literally have the perfect Pittsburgh Detroit stack in
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: there that you may have to switch from if your
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: morning fails. So lots of good stuff on this one
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: will be back next week. Like you said, you know,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: it could be a really good reason to tune in,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: So check us out next week. Guys. That's gonna do
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: it for this one, for Alex and for myself. To
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: Teg and Tambou, good luck this week and lad ship
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: it