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One Week to Election Day · Balance of Power

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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Speaker 6: Thank you for joining us on the Tuesday edition. We
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Speaker 6: are one week out. and Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio,
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Speaker 6: News Live. If you want to watch the radio on TV,
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Speaker 6: we always save a seat for you here in the studio.
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Speaker 6: And I'm delighted to say that we're joined at the
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Speaker 6: noontime hour, our special moment together by Kaylee Lines. Yes,
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Speaker 6: a little bit early because we have a special conversation.
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Speaker 6: First of all, a week out. I don't know how
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Speaker 6: you're feeling. I don't know how Rich McCormick is feeling,
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Speaker 6: but I'm pretty sure he's feeling pretty solid down in
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Speaker 6: Georgia today. We're going to be picking away at this
1:02
Speaker 6: for the next couple of hours, the next couple of days, Kayleigh,
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Speaker 6: following the money and the president's travels.
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Speaker 7: Yeah, of course, the president traveling to two different spots
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Speaker 7: in Texas today, Corpus Christi in Lubbock, and he'll be
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Speaker 7: having a number of football stars with him. Johnny Manziel
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Speaker 7: is going to be there, Danny Amendola, the former Patriots
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Speaker 7: football superstar. It's going to be fascinating to see whether
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Speaker 7: or not that that is going to do what it
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Speaker 7: seems the president wants to accomplish, which is draw in
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Speaker 7: more young players. male voters, the coalition that he could
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Speaker 7: count on in 2024, that he's hoping will turn out again.
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Speaker 8: For Republicans in 2026.
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Speaker 6: When I saw Amendola, I thought we could just like
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Speaker 6: put the band back together, get Belichick with the letter,
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Speaker 6: Tom Brady with the hat in the locker. It's like
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Speaker 6: bringing back a lot of memories from, it was 2016,
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Speaker 6: I guess.
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Speaker 1: But yes, this is the playbook for today.
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Speaker 6: He's got three destinations in Texas by the time this
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Speaker 6: is done.
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Speaker 7: Yeah, two rallies, and he'll be making an appearance alongside
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Speaker 7: the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to receive what he
1:57
Speaker 7: says is a million barrels of of crude from Venezuela.
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Speaker 1: That's right.
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Speaker 6: A major photo opportunity that we'll be following all the while.
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Speaker 6: Vice President J.D. Vance in Howell, Michigan. Last evening in Mississippi,
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Speaker 6: we talked a lot about it, a deep red state
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Speaker 6: that the president might not have otherwise been spending time in.
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Speaker 6: He was there, of course, to help the Republican senator
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Speaker 6: who has found herself in at least more of a
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Speaker 6: contested campaign than anyone would have thought in Cindy Hyde-Smith.
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Speaker 1: Here's the president from last night.
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Speaker 9: You know, I'm here because Cindy's doing great, but I
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Speaker 9: just got to make sure I can't take a chance.
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Speaker 10: I can't take a chance. The only problem is.
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Speaker 9: Sometimes, and this happens, and sometimes when you think somebody's
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Speaker 9: doing so well, nobody votes. They all stay home. Oh,
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Speaker 9: Cindy's great. She's going to do no problem. Let's stay home.
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Speaker 9: And then bad things happen, Cindy, right? So that's why
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Speaker 9: I'm here.
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Speaker 3: Just get out and vote.
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Speaker 1: Just get out and vote, he says.
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Speaker 6: And that's exactly where we start our conversation with Congressman
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Speaker 6: Rich McCormick, the Republican from Georgia's 7th District. Think the
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Speaker 6: very top of Atlanta and North, Congressman. It's great to
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Speaker 6: see you, and we love the backdrop. I will mention, incidentally,
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Speaker 6: that Rich McCormick is not only a Marine Corps and
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Speaker 6: Navy veteran. He was also cast in the famous Marine
3:15
Speaker 6: Corps ad, Chess. Do you remember that from 1990? This
3:18
Speaker 6: is like where they're playing a sword battle on the
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Speaker 6: chessboard and was the runner-up on the seventh season of
3:24
Speaker 6: the initial run of American Gladiators. So by that, we
3:28
Speaker 6: mean the congressman could kill you with his bare hands,
3:30
Speaker 6: and it's good to have you back, sir, on Bloomberg.
3:34
Speaker 11: Just remember, of course, I could also revive you because
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Speaker 11: I'm an ER doc, so it's okay.
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Speaker 6: OK, so he could kill you and bring it back
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Speaker 6: to life. I mean, that's a pretty good combination. Congressman,
3:44
Speaker 6: it's all about go TV right now, correct? I mean,
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Speaker 6: we're kind of getting beyond the ads and the debates.
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Speaker 6: This is about getting people out to polls. How are
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Speaker 6: you doing that? And what we are told by the
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Speaker 6: Cook Political Report is a solid red district.
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Speaker 11: Yeah, we're trying to make sure we help the statewide effort.
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Speaker 11: My district will be just fine. We actually have the
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Speaker 11: most voter participation in the last three elections. This time
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Speaker 11: is no exception. Out of 14 districts in Georgia, we're
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Speaker 11: number one. But the problem is the next four are
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Speaker 11: all Democrat districts. It's really important to get people out.
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Speaker 11: I think our district is a little bit different because
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Speaker 11: we have the highest education level. We have the highest
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Speaker 11: income level. Matter of fact, we're the wealthiest Republican district
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Speaker 11: in America by median income. We have a ton of business, biotech, defense, fintech,
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Speaker 11: you name it. This public gets it. And what's crazy
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Speaker 11: about this, and this is why I keep on telling people,
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Speaker 11: when we're messaging, we're messaging a lot of times about
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Speaker 11: things that are temporary rather than things that are permanent.
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Speaker 11: When you look at the migration, nine of the ten
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Speaker 11: states that are growing are all red states for a reason.
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Speaker 11: Lower taxation, lower regulation, more business-friendly environments.
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Speaker 3: That's the future of America. I always say, just like Calvin.
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Speaker 11: Coolidge 100 years ago, the business of America is business.
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Speaker 7: Well, of course, some of those state policies around taxation
4:55
Speaker 7: will be decided in part by whoever is sitting in
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Speaker 7: the governor's mansion after Brian Kemp. And we spoke, Congressman,
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Speaker 7: with the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, the former mayor of Atlanta,
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Speaker 7: Keisha Lance Bottoms, just yesterday and asked her about whether
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Speaker 7: or not she anticipates any potential voting irregularities this cycle.
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Speaker 7: This is what she told us, sir, and we'll have
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Speaker 7: you respond.
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Speaker 12: I'm deeply concerned in what we've seen from the Trump administration,
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Speaker 12: from the raid on Fulton County to the 260 FBI
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Speaker 12: agents that he has already dispatched into our state. We
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Speaker 12: are monitoring daily the vote tallies, keeping track of that
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Speaker 12: so that we will have our own information should a
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Speaker 12: disruption happen, but also just we are prepared to challenge
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Speaker 12: where necessary.
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Speaker 1: With the courts.
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Speaker 12: And, you know, I can't say what will happen at
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Speaker 12: the end of this election, but it is my hope
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Speaker 12: that Donald Trump will not have his way in Georgia
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Speaker 12: and that we will have a free and fair election.
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Speaker 7: Congressman, do you have any reason to doubt a free
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Speaker 7: and fair election in Georgia?
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Speaker 11: We actually changed our laws to make sure they're most
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Speaker 11: generous to everybody. We have a month of early voting.
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Speaker 11: We have more black voter participation than we've ever had ever.
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Speaker 11: This is historical levels. This has been one of the
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Speaker 11: best things for all people. But we also want accountability.
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Speaker 11: We've been talking about this. Georgia was the epicenter. of
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Speaker 11: the voting controversies of 2020. We're going to make sure
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Speaker 11: that doesn't happen again. But it's funny, Keisha was a
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Speaker 11: very bad mayor, and a bad mayor does not make
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Speaker 11: a good governor. And I'm telling you, Rick Jackson will
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Speaker 11: win this election, but the fact that it's close bothers me.
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Speaker 3: The fact that we're not having better appeal to minorities.
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Speaker 11: This is a 52% minority state, 33% African American, the
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Speaker 11: second highest in all states in America. It's important that
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Speaker 11: we appeal to people and realize that the biggest gains
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Speaker 11: of income per demographic is over the African-American community in
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Speaker 11: the last two years. We want to continue that. We
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Speaker 11: want to have a real conversation about what causes that.
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Speaker 11: That's what matters more than any politician. It's about what
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Speaker 11: your ambitions are, what's going to get in the way
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Speaker 11: of free markets and acceleration of any demographic in America.
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Speaker 11: That's what we should be debating, not a single politician,
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Speaker 11: but the things that matter most to people.
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Speaker 9: Yeah.
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Speaker 6: Congressman, Georgia knows a little bit about ticket splitting, as
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Speaker 6: we have seen Over the years, and I'm wondering your
7:15
Speaker 6: thoughts on this. I'm not trying to encourage you to
7:18
Speaker 6: dump on a colleague, but Mike Collins is in a
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Speaker 6: very difficult situation, it seems, in this Senate race with
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Speaker 6: John Ossoff. Are you banking on vote splitters who vote
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Speaker 6: for Ossoff to also vote for you?
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Speaker 3: You know, I have a feeling that's exactly what usually happens.
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Speaker 11: I mean, we've outperformed everybody in Georgia, number one out
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Speaker 11: of 14 states, both on voter participation and in points
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Speaker 11: above PBI, in other words, expectations. We pretty much outperformed
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Speaker 11: anybody who wasn't named Kemp because we don't talk about policy, politics.
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Speaker 11: We talk about basically what matters to the voters. We
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Speaker 11: have a realistic conversation about what can and can't be done.
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Speaker 11: I think people appreciate that. I treat this like a
7:58
Speaker 11: PhD course. I have more access to more information than
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Speaker 11: anybody other than the President of the United States. We
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Speaker 11: use that to get great legislation passed, have great constituent services.
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Speaker 3: That's what matters to me in my district.
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Speaker 11: But I want to make sure my district shows up
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Speaker 11: because I think that matters in the overall state elections.
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Speaker 3: I think Mike would make a great senator.
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Speaker 11: I know he's got his hand full with John Ossoff, but.
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Speaker 3: We've got to bring it. We've got to make sure
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Speaker 3: that people know that the government's not the answer to
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Speaker 3: our problems.
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Speaker 11: And one party is 66 percent identifying right now as socialist.
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Speaker 11: Anybody knows America has never been a socialist country. That's
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Speaker 11: why we pulled away from Europe. We used to have
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Speaker 11: the same GDP just 20 years ago. Now we have
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Speaker 11: 30 trillion dollars. They have 20 trillion dollars.
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Speaker 3: People at Bloomberg know business matters. What we've done here
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Speaker 3: in America has worked. Let's not copy Europe.
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Speaker 7: Well, I think you might be referring, Congressman, to a
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Speaker 7: CNN poll from back in July that actually found 34
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Speaker 7: percent of Democrats identify as democratic socialists. Sixty six percent
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Speaker 7: did not. I do want to ask you, though, Congressman,
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Speaker 7: as you talk about or a Gallup poll, I guess,
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Speaker 7: found 66 percent viewed democratic socialism favorably. So maybe that
9:05
Speaker 7: is where you're coming from here. You mentioned wanting to
9:08
Speaker 7: get good legislation done. And we do want to talk
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Speaker 7: about some legislation that you had just put forward yesterday.
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Speaker 7: This week, it's about strengthening cloud cybersecurity in this country specifically.
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Speaker 7: In part, this legislation would direct the National Institute of
9:21
Speaker 7: Standards and Technology to develop updated standards around protecting sensitive data.
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Speaker 7: I would imagine a lot of this, Congressman, is driven
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Speaker 7: by the cyber capabilities that frontier AI models have proved
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Speaker 7: that they have. What exactly would this legislation accomplish in
9:37
Speaker 7: making sure that there are guardrails around those capabilities? And
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Speaker 7: is this all mandatory or is it voluntary, as we
9:42
Speaker 7: have seen with a lot of moves in the AI space?
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Speaker 11: I think as far as a mandatory versus basically discretionary,
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Speaker 11: I think that's yet to be determined. But I think
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Speaker 11: the most important thing is to realize where our vulnerabilities are.
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Speaker 11: What's funny is as a Marine, I'm a crane on
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Speaker 11: Eaton Marine, but I really got into AI.
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Speaker 3: I'm on the AI Task Force.
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Speaker 11: Cybersecurity for the subcommittee of the NDA was really important
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Speaker 11: and applying things would help us. But I think the
10:08
Speaker 11: most important thing to address is a vulnerability with the
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Speaker 11: new age of quantum and AI technology, superintelligence, that we
10:15
Speaker 11: protect ourselves. The cloud is the most vulnerable part of
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Speaker 11: our storage of information, whether it be your personal information,
10:22
Speaker 11: your financial information, military secrets, you name it, your medical information.
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Speaker 11: We need to make sure that that one critical vulnerability
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Speaker 11: is covered, that we're matching AI with AI, that we're able.
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Speaker 3: To protect ourselves.
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Speaker 11: This gives us a top-down review of the oversight bureaucracy
10:37
Speaker 11: to make sure that we do things right, because this
10:39
Speaker 11: is a critical vulnerability that could really come back and
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Speaker 11: haunt us to make sure it's basically contained if we
10:45
Speaker 11: ever have an attack.
10:47
Speaker 3: When we have nefarious actors, both.
10:48
Speaker 11: In Iran, China, North Korea, Russia, these are a lot
10:54
Speaker 11: of vulnerabilities we have to cover and a lot of
10:55
Speaker 11: enemies we have to.
10:56
Speaker 3: Look out for.
10:58
Speaker 9: Yeah.
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Speaker 6: Congressman, we want to ask you a couple of questions
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Speaker 6: as a member of the Armed Services Committee. As I
11:03
Speaker 6: mentioned as well, and people can see here on YouTube,
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Speaker 6: you are a Marine. You flew super stallion helicopters, and
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Speaker 6: you know what it's like to be in harm's way.
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Speaker 6: Are we going back to war after the election?
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Speaker 3: Well, we're at war.
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Speaker 11: I don't care what anybody says. When you have exchanged
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Speaker 11: a weapon with a foreign entity. Yeah, but I think
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Speaker 11: it will continue. I think we should have ended this
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Speaker 11: five months ago with overwhelming force and superiority.
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Speaker 3: This is a country that's basically— Is that possible?
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Speaker 1: Could the president do that now?
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Speaker 3: It is, absolutely.
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Speaker 11: So I used to teach evolution of warfare, and two
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Speaker 11: things are true.
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Speaker 3: First of all, wars never become more popular over time.
11:37
Speaker 11: Second one is you never win a war with half measures.
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Speaker 11: We should have seen this in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq. Every
11:44
Speaker 11: time we fight with half measures, we lose. Every time
11:46
Speaker 11: we do surge ops and we use overwhelming force, you win.
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Speaker 3: When have we ever won against a country without land invasion?
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Speaker 11: Well, Japan's a good option, but think about what we
11:55
Speaker 11: had to do there.
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Speaker 3: We had to be overwhelming.
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Speaker 11: We can't just target military targets and expect to win.
12:00
Speaker 11: You have to go after the infrastructure.
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Speaker 3: You have to make the.
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Speaker 11: Civilians feel the heat until somebody rises up in that
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Speaker 11: command structure and says, you know what, this is not
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Speaker 11: worth it. If we get invaded by the Kurds or
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Speaker 11: by Israel or by Turkey or by Iraq or all simultaneously,
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Speaker 11: which I would encourage as president, by the way, at
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Speaker 11: least as a motivation to have somebody rise up and say,
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Speaker 11: you know what, this can't happen anymore.
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Speaker 3: We're going to fold the country unless we make a
12:23
Speaker 3: deal with the Americans.
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Speaker 11: We don't continue to threaten them and attack them. We've
12:27
Speaker 11: lost 1,000 Americans with 40 proxy.
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Speaker 3: Attacks before the war. These people have literally.
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Speaker 11: Threatened to destroy us with nuclear arms, rain down fire
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Speaker 11: from above for 40 years.
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Speaker 3: This is incredible. We need to deal with this now,
12:38
Speaker 3: or our children will, and it will be much, much worse.
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Speaker 7: Well, you mentioned Israel, Congressman, which is having an election today,
12:45
Speaker 7: which could result in an outcome in which the prime minister,
12:48
Speaker 7: Benjamin Netanyahu, is no longer prime minister. Do you think
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Speaker 7: that changes U.S. calculations when it comes to Iran at all?
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Speaker 11: No, because Israel is a little statement. We are the
12:58
Speaker 11: big Satan. We've been identified that way as Iran. They
13:01
Speaker 11: literally want to destroy us and our way of life.
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Speaker 11: It doesn't get rid of our enemy just because we
13:05
Speaker 11: changed who's the leader in Israel. Matter of fact, if
13:09
Speaker 11: you want to get rid of Netanyahu, get rid of
13:11
Speaker 11: the Tehran regime, and there's no reason for that strong leader.
13:13
Speaker 11: He's a wartime leader. You get rid of the Tehran regime,
13:16
Speaker 11: you bring peace to the Middle East. You probably have
13:19
Speaker 11: Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords.
13:21
Speaker 3: It would transform the entire Middle East.
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Speaker 11: Matter of fact, it would be transformative to the the
13:25
Speaker 11: entire world geopolitical scheme because you lose another ally in
13:29
Speaker 11: that horrible regime that.
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Speaker 3: Basically, what I call the evil empire now.
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Speaker 11: Basically, when you have Russia and North Korea and Iran
13:38
Speaker 11: and China scheming to overthrow everything that's good, everything that's
13:42
Speaker 11: a democracy, everything that's not an autocracy, such as in
13:46
Speaker 11: the Trump regime.
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Speaker 1: Congressman, it's good to have you. One week out.
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Speaker 6: I hope things go well for you with the GoTV effort,
13:54
Speaker 6: and we'll see you when you get back here in
13:56
Speaker 6: Washington after the election. That's Congressman Rich McCormick, Republican, Georgia's
14:00
Speaker 6: 7th District.
14:01
Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
14:03
Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
14:07
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14:26
Speaker 6: It's the Tuesday edition, which means we are one week out.
14:30
Speaker 6: We're going to be talking midterms quite a bit, as
14:32
Speaker 6: if we haven't already been. This is, of course, the
14:35
Speaker 6: story as the president today travels to Texas. He's going
14:38
Speaker 6: to be hanging in Lubbock, same time that Talrico is
14:41
Speaker 6: doing a rally there. Corpus Christi is on the schedule.
14:45
Speaker 6: He's going to be in a couple of other spots,
14:47
Speaker 6: making his way, basically spending the day there. He'll be
14:49
Speaker 6: in Port Arthur as well with Secretary of State Marco Rubio,
14:52
Speaker 6: according to the AP, they're going to be doing a
14:54
Speaker 6: stand-up little photo op in front of an oil tanker
14:57
Speaker 6: filled with Venezuelan crude.
15:00
Speaker 3: J.D.
15:00
Speaker 1: Vance, as we mentioned, is in Michigan.
15:02
Speaker 6: And Speaker Johnson, wow, if you think Donald Trump's got
15:05
Speaker 6: a travel schedule, he's going to be in 13 states
15:08
Speaker 6: and 21 districts over the next seven days. Today he's
15:13
Speaker 6: with Mike Lawler, the Republican congressman from New York. I'll
15:17
Speaker 6: tell you, we woke up this morning here in the
15:20
Speaker 6: nation's capital.
15:20
Speaker 1: It was dark.
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Speaker 6: I mean, I'm usually like a 6 o'clock guy, maybe
15:24
Speaker 6: a little before that. And I'm just, I thought it
15:27
Speaker 6: was the middle of the night.
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Speaker 1: It's 7 o'clock in the morning.
15:30
Speaker 6: I think I told you the other day I saw
15:31
Speaker 6: a kid with a miner's lamp on his head out
15:33
Speaker 6: at the bus stop. I was not making that up.
15:35
Speaker 6: The first bus, by the way, rolls through my neighborhood
15:38
Speaker 6: before 7. Doesn't that seem cruel and unusual? Who are
15:41
Speaker 6: these kids? Is that like the honors class? I'll have
15:44
Speaker 6: to ask Kaylee after about how that works. The fact
15:48
Speaker 6: of the matter is, we're going to get to this
15:49
Speaker 6: daylight savings thing. The president's very worked up about it.
15:52
Speaker 6: With or without it, large swaths of Arlington National Cemetery
15:58
Speaker 6: will be in the dark later than usual if the
16:00
Speaker 6: president gets the arch, the Parisian arch, the Parisian-style arch
16:04
Speaker 6: the president wants to build over at Arlington. Remarkable reporting
16:08
Speaker 6: today by the Washington Post, which created a scale digital
16:13
Speaker 6: 3D model of this 250-foot archway that has like a
16:18
Speaker 6: 60-foot tall statue or some big golden angel or something
16:22
Speaker 6: on the top of it, the Post finds, and they
16:25
Speaker 6: have digital animation, pretty remarkable, that over the course of
16:29
Speaker 6: the year, the shadow of the triumphal arch would touch
16:32
Speaker 6: burial sites in Arlington on 284 days of the year.
16:39
Speaker 6: It would briefly cover JFK's eternal flame on 18 days.
16:44
Speaker 6: It would shade the former president's memorial on 50, would
16:47
Speaker 6: darken the military women's memorial on 109 days, and the
16:52
Speaker 6: shadow would then move across the graves of veterans from Vietnam, Korea,
16:57
Speaker 6: World War I, World War II, the Spanish-American War, and
17:00
Speaker 6: Civil War, and would then dim the headstones of formerly
17:05
Speaker 6: enslaved people. In total, the Post found it would pass
17:08
Speaker 6: over more than 75,000 graves. Over the course of the
17:14
Speaker 6: sun rising over our nation's capital. So it would depend
17:21
Speaker 6: on this potential piece of legislation passing exactly what time
17:26
Speaker 6: it would be that the eternal flame would was in
17:29
Speaker 6: the dark.
17:29
Speaker 1: We've talked about it before.
17:30
Speaker 6: The president wants this daylight savings thing to go away.
17:33
Speaker 6: And I'll remind everybody, you change your clocks coming up
17:35
Speaker 6: this Sunday.
17:36
Speaker 1: Won't be quite as dark in the morning. And he
17:38
Speaker 1: got to this last evening.
17:40
Speaker 6: This is apparently all the talk in Mississippi.
17:42
Speaker 1: Listen to President Trump.
17:44
Speaker 9: Changing your clocks, it drives everyone crazy. Everybody wants it done.
17:50
Speaker 9: Most people are demanding sunlight. Look, I happen to like
17:56
Speaker 9: sun in the afternoon. I don't need it really in
17:58
Speaker 9: the morning. But most people, I would say 70, 75%.
18:03
Speaker 9: But you know what 100% of the people want? They
18:05
Speaker 9: don't want to have to go all over the place
18:07
Speaker 9: changing their clocks. I'm always like, you know, I had
18:10
Speaker 9: a big meeting and I was an hour late.
18:12
Speaker 10: I said, sure, you're about an hour late.
18:15
Speaker 3: I said, what do you mean?
18:16
Speaker 9: Daylight saving time.
18:20
Speaker 6: Wait, nobody told him the clock's changed? He's an hour
18:24
Speaker 6: late all the time. Ask producer James.
18:28
Speaker 1: We spent a lot of time waiting for these events
18:30
Speaker 1: to start. Fantastic, though. CeCe, thank you for mining the news.
18:35
Speaker 6: Because maybe this is the one thing they can accomplish
18:37
Speaker 6: in the lame duck session. We've discussed this before with
18:41
Speaker 6: our good friend Nathan Dean. He joins us now, the
18:43
Speaker 6: senior U.S. policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Can they pass
18:48
Speaker 6: this thing or what?
18:49
Speaker 10: It's not going to see the light of day.
18:50
Speaker 1: Come on. You rehearsed that.
18:52
Speaker 9: I did.
18:53
Speaker 10: And actually, I stole that from Senator Daines because Senator
18:55
Speaker 10: Daines said that.
18:57
Speaker 13: He said the Western states are going to go for
18:58
Speaker 13: it because, look, Senator Tom Cotton, I mean, obviously, President
19:01
Speaker 13: Trump didn't refer to Senator Cotton.
19:03
Speaker 1: He doesn't want any part of this.
19:04
Speaker 10: Yeah, he doesn't want any part of this. And it's
19:05
Speaker 10: a difference of opinion.
19:07
Speaker 13: Look, most people don't know standard time versus daylight savings times.
19:11
Speaker 13: President Trump wants light in the evening. Senator Cotton wants
19:14
Speaker 13: light in the morning.
19:15
Speaker 3: Correct.
19:15
Speaker 10: My daughter's bus stop is at six 30.
19:18
Speaker 1: What's going on with that? What grade are we in
19:20
Speaker 1: at six 30 in the morning?
19:21
Speaker 10: Seventh and eighth grade.
19:23
Speaker 1: Does she come home at noon?
19:24
Speaker 10: She comes home at two.
19:25
Speaker 1: Wow.
19:26
Speaker 13: So, but, but you know, we have to drive her
19:29
Speaker 13: seven doors to get to the bus stop because.
19:31
Speaker 10: It is, you drive down the street because it's pitch black.
19:34
Speaker 9: Wow.
19:34
Speaker 10: And that's where Senator Cotton is coming from.
19:36
Speaker 13: I mean, but, you know, Senator Kelly loves to come
19:39
Speaker 13: in from Arizona here and say, look, if you want,
19:41
Speaker 13: you know, daylight savings time, you can just do it
19:43
Speaker 13: on your own.
19:44
Speaker 1: I mean, Arizona, that's right. Arizona doesn't get fouled up
19:47
Speaker 1: on every road trip.
19:47
Speaker 13: But at the end of the day, President Trump's going
19:49
Speaker 13: to push for this. And yes, it passed the House
19:51
Speaker 13: 300 and change. But I just don't think Senator Cotton
19:55
Speaker 13: or Senator Daines is going to actually give up on this.
19:57
Speaker 13: And I think we're just going to have to push
19:59
Speaker 13: this on and put it into the next Congress.
20:01
Speaker 6: Maybe a miner's lamp in the Christmas stocking. I see
20:04
Speaker 6: this kid out there. He's got a couple of other
20:08
Speaker 6: ones around him, and they're waiting for headlights to come
20:10
Speaker 6: up the street. We'll remind everybody that this was tried before,
20:13
Speaker 6: and actually some kids got killed on their way to school.
20:16
Speaker 6: This was done in 1974 as an experiment to save money.
20:19
Speaker 6: It didn't work well. To be clear, the president wants
20:22
Speaker 6: more daylight. in the afternoon because the golf game, right?
20:25
Speaker 6: He complained at one point about having to come in
20:27
Speaker 6: early from the golf course.
20:28
Speaker 13: Yeah, he complained a little bit early. But I think
20:30
Speaker 13: most Americans are like, look, they prefer to have a
20:33
Speaker 13: little bit more sunlight in the evening. Believe me, Bloomberg
20:36
Speaker 13: Intelligence has not done any analysis on this whatsoever. This
20:39
Speaker 13: is just my anecdotal thoughts. But I would just say
20:42
Speaker 13: is that at the end of the day, if the
20:45
Speaker 13: Democrats take the House of Representatives and if they take
20:47
Speaker 13: the Senate, Nobody in Washington is going to be in
20:49
Speaker 13: the mood to actually do something on this.
20:51
Speaker 10: They're just going to want to go home.
20:52
Speaker 13: And so I don't see any type of floor passage
20:55
Speaker 13: or any type of debate happening here.
20:57
Speaker 6: Is that true, James? The PGA Tour endorsed the president's plan.
21:05
Speaker 6: I mean, how much lobbying do you need?
21:07
Speaker 13: Hey, when they're on the West Coast and we can
21:09
Speaker 13: watch that until about 9, 10 o'clock East Coast time,
21:12
Speaker 13: I'm all in favor of that. I mean, those tournaments
21:14
Speaker 13: up in the Northwest Pacific, those are great tournaments to
21:16
Speaker 13: watch because the sun stays out so late.
21:18
Speaker 6: Well, listen, this is one that we'll talk about, I guess,
21:21
Speaker 6: straight through the lame duck. We've got a couple of
21:25
Speaker 6: other things to talk about. On Visa earnings day, I
21:28
Speaker 6: want to ask you about credit card swipe fees.
21:32
Speaker 9: Yeah.
21:32
Speaker 6: This came up a lot last year, and there is
21:35
Speaker 6: a thought that it could come up again. I mentioned
21:39
Speaker 6: Visa and MasterCard have been on a tear. They've both
21:43
Speaker 6: been breaking out to new highs recently. Could that stop
21:46
Speaker 6: the run?
21:47
Speaker 13: So there are a couple of things to keep in
21:48
Speaker 13: mind here. So just this week, a court actually threw
21:51
Speaker 13: out the Durbin Amendment rule. which would actually require the
21:53
Speaker 13: Fed to go back and redo this. Now, this is
21:56
Speaker 13: something that was created by Dodd-Frank. This is something that
21:59
Speaker 13: would actually add about maybe $ 0. 25 per transaction back into
22:03
Speaker 13: the hands of the retailer. So it's actually good for
22:05
Speaker 13: the retailers, bad for the banks.
22:07
Speaker 10: There's a couple.
22:08
Speaker 13: Of other things to keep in mind. We have the
22:11
Speaker 13: Credit Card Competition Act. This is the Marshall-Durbin bill. Now,
22:14
Speaker 13: if Senator Marshall doesn't win in Kansas, he's not going
22:17
Speaker 13: to come back next year to re-propose this. But this
22:20
Speaker 13: idea would create more competition for Visa and MasterCard. I
22:23
Speaker 13: actually am calling this a brewing risk for 2027. I mean,
22:26
Speaker 13: a lot of people like to say that legislation is
22:28
Speaker 13: not going to happen if the Democrats take the House.
22:30
Speaker 10: This is one of those pieces of legislation where you
22:32
Speaker 10: have to pay attention to.
22:33
Speaker 5: Look at that.
22:33
Speaker 13: There are people on both sides of the aisle, economic populists,
22:36
Speaker 13: and this is a fight between retailers, the banks, and
22:39
Speaker 13: Visa and MasterCard. And what happens is that when Walmart
22:42
Speaker 13: or Target comes in and says, look, if you were
22:45
Speaker 13: to actually create more competition– this is what Senator Durbin
22:47
Speaker 13: loves to say– If you were to create more competition
22:50
Speaker 13: and say the banks are going to have to essentially
22:54
Speaker 13: lower their fees, well, that goes to the retailers. Less
22:56
Speaker 13: transactions on Visa and MasterCard. And as a reminder, if
22:59
Speaker 13: you fly through LaGuardia or DCA, you'll see those adverts
23:02
Speaker 13: saying this bill is going to kill your credit card
23:05
Speaker 13: reward programs.
23:06
Speaker 10: The airlines get involved in here.
23:07
Speaker 1: The airlines have a big issue.
23:08
Speaker 13: This is something that could come back next year because
23:10
Speaker 13: there are people on both sides in the aisle that
23:11
Speaker 13: are open to this.
23:12
Speaker 6: Well, I'm really glad I brought this up because, boy,
23:14
Speaker 6: when you think about the Visas and MasterCards, different than
23:17
Speaker 6: some other Credit card companies, their entire income is the fee.
23:20
Speaker 6: It's the transaction, right? They are not actual banks. They're
23:24
Speaker 6: creating the network that these transactions exist on.
23:28
Speaker 1: Do you have odds? on something like this, or.
23:30
Speaker 6: Do you need everybody to get back and start debate
23:32
Speaker 6: on this and see if the bill's reintroduced?
23:34
Speaker 13: If Marshall comes back next year, it's a 40% chance.
23:37
Speaker 13: If Marshall does not come back next year, we're going
23:40
Speaker 13: to put it at a 30% because we need somebody
23:41
Speaker 13: to take it up in the Senate as the primary
23:43
Speaker 13: sponsor because Senator Durbin's retiring.
23:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, makes sense.
23:46
Speaker 13: But, you know, I will say this, is that there
23:47
Speaker 13: was a hearing in the Senate Banking Committee about maybe
23:50
Speaker 13: a year ago. Senator Kennedy voiced support for this idea.
23:53
Speaker 13: Senator Graham, when he was alive, voiced support for this idea.
23:56
Speaker 10: And I'm watching this hearing, and I'm going... Wait a minute.
23:59
Speaker 13: This is something brewing here because there's a lot more
24:01
Speaker 13: individuals on the GOP side. They're open to this idea
24:05
Speaker 13: of actually trying to lower costs for the consumers here,
24:08
Speaker 13: take money away from the banks and from the credit
24:10
Speaker 13: card companies, put it back into the hands of the
24:12
Speaker 13: retailers with the idea that the retailers will actually drop
24:14
Speaker 13: their prices. Now, if you talk to a bank, they'll say, absolutely,
24:17
Speaker 13: the retailers do nothing. If you talk to the retailers,
24:19
Speaker 13: they'll say, absolutely, we do. I've seen studies from both sides,
24:22
Speaker 13: so take them with you.
24:23
Speaker 10: Well, it's interesting.
24:24
Speaker 6: Bill Ackman got on Visa in his new fund, and
24:28
Speaker 6: you wonder if something like that happened, does that change
24:31
Speaker 6: the entire investing thesis on a stock like that?
24:34
Speaker 10: Well, you also have buy now, pay later.
24:36
Speaker 13: I mean, there are other things that are in this
24:37
Speaker 13: space other than this bill. You have this President Trump's
24:41
Speaker 13: pushing for the cap of 10% credit cards. Now, Visa, MasterCard,
24:45
Speaker 13: they don't accrue interest.
24:46
Speaker 1: I haven't heard anyone mention that in a while.
24:47
Speaker 13: No, but there is legislation out there from Senator Sanders
24:50
Speaker 13: and Senator Hawley.
24:51
Speaker 10: There's another bill on the House side.
24:54
Speaker 13: There's also legislation that would cap interest rates at 36%
24:56
Speaker 13: because that's what's capped right now for military members. You know,
25:00
Speaker 13: Representative Garcia from the Democratic side wants to push that
25:02
Speaker 13: out to everybody. So now that's not going to impact
25:05
Speaker 13: Visa and MasterCard.
25:05
Speaker 10: They don't accrue interest. That's on the banking side.
25:08
Speaker 13: Where I'm going here is, is that when it comes
25:10
Speaker 13: to this idea of consumers and costs. Visa and MasterCard
25:14
Speaker 13: in the banks have a more difficult story to tell
25:17
Speaker 13: these days with these politicians.
25:19
Speaker 6: Yeah.
25:20
Speaker 13: Because, you know, just in over the years, there's been
25:23
Speaker 13: always this assumption that the politicians are like, look, we're
25:25
Speaker 13: going to support you and so forth.
25:27
Speaker 10: That begins to change a little bit.
25:29
Speaker 13: So I'm not saying it's going to pass next year because, look,
25:31
Speaker 13: you need the Democrats to agree with President Trump. And
25:33
Speaker 13: that's not going to happen very often. But, you know,
25:37
Speaker 13: this is something we definitely have to pay attention to.
25:38
Speaker 1: Might be one of those areas, Nathan. Fascinating. Fascinating.
25:41
Speaker 6: If we stop changing the clocks, if it was earlier
25:45
Speaker 6: in the morning, would you start practice earlier on Sundays?
25:49
Speaker 1: Or the games would be earlier?
25:50
Speaker 10: We're having to move practice up because we can't keep
25:52
Speaker 10: them out late. So absolutely, I'm in favor of it.
25:54
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go. I mean, it takes America.
25:56
Speaker 6: Only America's dad would drive his child seven driveways to
26:01
Speaker 6: a school bus in the pitch dark.
26:02
Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. He's a model for all of us.
26:05
Speaker 6: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Thanks for being with us
26:07
Speaker 6: here on Balance of Power. We'll assemble our panel next
26:09
Speaker 6: to the Cheesecake Factory we go.
26:11
Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
26:13
Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
26:18
Speaker 5: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
26:22
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26:25
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26:28
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26:32
Speaker 5: us live on YouTube.
26:35
Speaker 6: Thanks for joining us on the Tuesday edition.
26:37
Speaker 1: We're one week out.
26:38
Speaker 6: A lot of things are said this time, you know,
26:40
Speaker 6: the final throws of a campaign, a lot of tough talk.
26:43
Speaker 6: We've heard a lot of personal attacks. We've heard Islamophobic remarks.
26:48
Speaker 6: We've heard bad jokes. We've seen dumb commercials. Didn't think
26:53
Speaker 6: we'd be arguing about the Cheesecake Factory.
26:59
Speaker 1: One week out.
27:00
Speaker 6: But Barack Obama, of course, started this. You saw the
27:03
Speaker 6: whole thing. We did this yesterday. He said that the
27:06
Speaker 6: White House, with all the gilding and all the rest,
27:08
Speaker 6: the president's renovations, we'll say, in many cases, gilding the
27:18
Speaker 6: White House. He said it looks like Saddam Hussein designed
27:22
Speaker 6: a cheesecake factory.
27:26
Speaker 1: Curious line. I'm not sure.
27:28
Speaker 6: It was one I would have taken to the bank here,
27:30
Speaker 6: but it kind of went viral online and it really
27:33
Speaker 6: got under Donald Trump's skin because this is what he
27:37
Speaker 6: loves doing and he thinks the White House has never
27:39
Speaker 6: looked better. So not only is the president talking about this.
27:43
Speaker 6: He talked about it on the tarmac yesterday with great anger.
27:46
Speaker 6: He got into it as part of the stump speech
27:49
Speaker 6: at the podium in Mississippi.
27:50
Speaker 1: They even sent, did you see this?
27:53
Speaker 6: They sent Scott Besant to go to get lunch at
27:56
Speaker 6: the Cheesecake Factory. Scott Besant, the 30-year success story of
28:02
Speaker 6: the U.S. financial markets, an incredibly wealthy man, went down
28:10
Speaker 6: to 15th Street, to the Cheesecake Factory, right across the
28:14
Speaker 6: street from Joe's Seafood, about two blocks from the Treasury Department.
28:19
Speaker 6: And they had a thing where one of the financial
28:21
Speaker 6: news networks, the one you don't watch, was out there
28:24
Speaker 6: with a camera crew waiting for him when he came out.
28:27
Speaker 6: He proudly walked out with the suit buttoned up, and
28:31
Speaker 6: he said about Barack Obama, this is a guy who
28:35
Speaker 6: built a museum, looks like Darth Vader's tomb. He said,
28:37
Speaker 6: I had a great meal, as I always do, suggesting
28:40
Speaker 6: that he is constantly dining at the Cheesecake Factory. Maybe
28:44
Speaker 6: a Monday thing. And, quote, I would tell the Martha's
28:50
Speaker 6: Vineyard set to give it a try, unquote. Of course,
28:54
Speaker 6: Barack Obama famously has been going to Martha's Vineyard for
28:57
Speaker 6: some time. But wait a minute. Doesn't he have a
29:00
Speaker 6: home in Provincetown? Put the Besant affair aside. Listen to
29:06
Speaker 6: President Trump last evening at the podium.
29:09
Speaker 9: He said, this isn't a cheesecake factory, can you believe it?
29:11
Speaker 9: Which is a very successful company. This isn't, he doesn't
29:15
Speaker 9: like successful companies. But, you know, he was very critical
29:19
Speaker 9: about me because I spend time. And if you would
29:23
Speaker 9: have seen the White House, I took over the White
29:25
Speaker 9: House and it was in horrible condition. I don't want
29:28
Speaker 9: to use a terrible word. It was in horrible condition.
29:34
Speaker 6: I'm just wondering if Scott Besant had the Louisiana chicken
29:38
Speaker 6: pasta or the.
29:40
Speaker 1: Chicken Bellagio. I feel like it might have been the choice.
29:46
Speaker 6: Big fan of the brown bread dinner rolls. Let's assemble
29:49
Speaker 6: our political panel. They've both been to Cheesecake Factory. Didn't
29:53
Speaker 6: think we'd be talking about it today either. Bloomberg Politics
29:56
Speaker 6: contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Shanzano have to put up
29:58
Speaker 6: with me every day on this program. He is, of course,
30:01
Speaker 6: Republican strategist and partner at Stonecourt Capital. And Jeannie is
30:03
Speaker 6: our Democratic analyst, democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's
30:08
Speaker 6: Ash Center. Who would have thought, Jeannie, what is it
30:12
Speaker 6: that made the Cheesecake Factory line the one that set
30:15
Speaker 6: off Donald Trump?
30:16
Speaker 14: I don't know about you, Joe, but I think he's
30:19
Speaker 14: really hurt. It almost felt like back in the press
30:23
Speaker 14: club when Barack Obama made fun of him and he
30:26
Speaker 14: then decided to run for president. It was like he
30:29
Speaker 14: was really hurt by the fact that Barack Obama was
30:32
Speaker 14: criticizing the way he's decorated this White House. And I'm
30:35
Speaker 14: sorry to the White House, but. You know, Donald Trump
30:38
Speaker 14: can go to McDonald's. Donald Trump can make it look
30:41
Speaker 14: casual and regular to go to the Cheesecake Factory.
30:45
Speaker 3: But God love him.
30:46
Speaker 14: Scott Besson walks out with his three piece suit or
30:48
Speaker 14: maybe it was a two piece suit. his tie, all
30:51
Speaker 14: the men behind him. There's nobody who is less relatable
30:56
Speaker 14: to the average person than the, what is he, a trillionaire?
30:59
Speaker 14: I don't know, Scott Besson. And you send him in?
31:03
Speaker 14: I'm not sure that that was the right way for
31:06
Speaker 14: them to go there with the White House. There had
31:08
Speaker 14: to be a better response than that.
31:11
Speaker 2: I don't know.
31:11
Speaker 6: I think this is the interesting policy. Incidentally, by the way,
31:14
Speaker 6: CeCe already had an answer. I should have talked to
31:16
Speaker 6: her first. He got the French dip cheeseburger. And Rick, look,
31:21
Speaker 6: maybe Scott Besson goes there. Maybe he's there all the time.
31:24
Speaker 6: Let's go there and ask, you know, some of the waitstaff,
31:27
Speaker 6: because you've been part of this stuff. If somebody came
31:30
Speaker 6: after you and compared your candidate or your president or
31:33
Speaker 6: your senator to the cheesecake factory, would you have followed
31:36
Speaker 6: up with a stunt like this?
31:39
Speaker 2: Anything to not be talking about Cheesecake Factory's one week
31:42
Speaker 2: out from Election Day. Yes, I think the stunt is
31:45
Speaker 2: what was deserved. And the real question is, what did
31:47
Speaker 2: he have for dessert? Was it the chocolate tower cupcake?
31:51
Speaker 2: I mean, I saw he was in there with about
31:54
Speaker 2: half a dozen aides. They were all probably in on that.
31:57
Speaker 2: And so I don't care what you eat for the
31:59
Speaker 2: main course. I care what you're dining on for dessert.
32:03
Speaker 1: Rick Davis is the real thing. I'm so glad that
32:05
Speaker 1: I brought this up. And well, see, see, see what
32:08
Speaker 1: you can find out there.
32:11
Speaker 6: This is all about, by the way, a conversation involving
32:16
Speaker 6: the decor at the White House, Jeannie. And as we
32:19
Speaker 6: learn more about what people are talking about in polls
32:21
Speaker 6: and sort of the anecdotal conversations that are coming from voters,
32:26
Speaker 6: they're concerned about corruption. But but my draw that does
32:30
Speaker 6: anyone actually care? Is this a problem that the president
32:33
Speaker 6: is redesigning.
32:34
Speaker 3: The White House?
32:36
Speaker 14: It is because it wouldn't be as much of a
32:38
Speaker 14: problem if gas was cheaper, groceries were cheaper, and anybody
32:42
Speaker 14: could afford to go to the Cheesecake Factory, which, by
32:44
Speaker 14: the way, is known as the most expensive of restaurants
32:49
Speaker 14: in the most expensive malls in the country. It is
32:51
Speaker 14: not a cheap place to go. But, you know, that's
32:54
Speaker 14: why this is resonating. But, you know, I have to confess, Joe,
32:58
Speaker 14: I first of all, it's funny to me to listen
33:00
Speaker 14: to everybody tripping over themselves in the media to say, oh,
33:03
Speaker 14: I go to the Cheesecake Factory all the time. I'm
33:05
Speaker 14: regular there. That said, you know, I am not a
33:09
Speaker 14: fan of this. I understand why Barack Obama brought this up.
33:13
Speaker 14: But I also think it feeds into a stereotype that
33:17
Speaker 14: does not help the Democratic Party, as it's known as
33:20
Speaker 14: sort of like a flyover party. This party that's been
33:24
Speaker 14: taken over by the East and the West Coast elite
33:27
Speaker 14: and the educated, hence Scott Besson, sort of badly trying
33:31
Speaker 14: to talk about Martha's Vineyard. I am not a fan
33:34
Speaker 14: of this. I don't think we need to meet Donald
33:37
Speaker 14: Trump's failure to keep his promises with this kind of response.
33:43
Speaker 14: But that said, it seems to have been the line
33:47
Speaker 14: so far of the campaign that's going to stick. And
33:50
Speaker 14: nobody does that better than Barack Obama.
33:53
Speaker 1: I don't know.
33:54
Speaker 6: I saw it that night. I didn't think anything of it.
33:57
Speaker 6: It's so weird, the things that resonate. By the way,
34:00
Speaker 6: they're not hamburgers. They're glam burgers. I'm just seeing it,
34:04
Speaker 6: the cheesecake. And CeCe tells me that burger he bought
34:08
Speaker 6: was $ 23. So it's on to the home of beef
34:12
Speaker 6: barbecue today, and that's Texas. The president, as I mentioned,
34:15
Speaker 6: has a multiple stops on his tour. They start in Corpus,
34:20
Speaker 6: then he's on to Lubbock and Port Arthur. Rick, when
34:25
Speaker 6: we're talking about Texas specifically, the president's message has largely
34:30
Speaker 6: been vote for you might not love Ken Paxton and
34:32
Speaker 6: he has bad suits, but vote for him because he's
34:35
Speaker 6: been a great attorney general. When it comes to the
34:38
Speaker 6: affordability picture, what is his message to Texas?
34:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that, you know, you have to remember
34:46
Speaker 2: Texas is an oil state. Um, so doing stunts like,
34:49
Speaker 2: you know, go and seeing a big, you know, barge
34:52
Speaker 2: from Venezuela, bringing crude into Corpus Christi that, you know,
34:56
Speaker 2: that doesn't fly in most states, but it flies big
34:59
Speaker 2: in Texas. Um, The president actually has a story to
35:02
Speaker 2: tell when it comes to oil, and he told it
35:04
Speaker 2: the other day, which is all the oil companies are
35:07
Speaker 2: getting rich. Well, they employ a lot of people in Texas.
35:09
Speaker 2: So even though we think it's kind of an obnoxious
35:11
Speaker 2: thing to say, it actually may be good talking points
35:15
Speaker 2: for one state and one state only. And so I
35:20
Speaker 2: doubt he'll change. I think he'll probably talk a lot
35:24
Speaker 2: about how all of the conditions that exist with the
35:29
Speaker 2: war in Iran and the higher oil prices has actually
35:33
Speaker 2: benefited that community. And in Corpus Christi and in Lubbock,
35:37
Speaker 2: that would be true.
35:39
Speaker 6: That's fascinating. What a great answer, Jeannie. A line that
35:44
Speaker 6: might offend voters in one state is a boon potentially
35:49
Speaker 6: in another. And I'll let you know, by the way,
35:51
Speaker 6: I don't know if you saw who he's going to
35:53
Speaker 6: be with. He's got Johnny Football with him. Do you
35:55
Speaker 6: see this? We mentioned this earlier. Danny Amendola is with him.
36:01
Speaker 6: Colt McCoy oil and football genie.
36:04
Speaker 1: Isn't that how you win?
36:06
Speaker 9: Yeah.
36:06
Speaker 14: You know, listen, I can't speak out against my Patriots. So,
36:10
Speaker 14: you know, right there, he got me, but you know, listen, um,
36:14
Speaker 14: It may work if you work in the oil business,
36:17
Speaker 14: as many people to Rick's point in Texas do. But
36:20
Speaker 14: what doesn't work is if you continue to say things
36:23
Speaker 14: like Donald Trump said the other day, which is that
36:26
Speaker 14: we are all doing better. We are all raking it in.
36:30
Speaker 3: And who's the we?
36:31
Speaker 14: It is the people who own the oil companies, his
36:34
Speaker 14: billionaire oil executive tycoon folks. which companies that he's invested in, apparently.
36:41
Speaker 14: So he's going to have to be down there. And
36:43
Speaker 14: with these football folks, I'm a little bit worried for
36:46
Speaker 14: these young men. We know how he's been treating young men,
36:49
Speaker 14: former football players out on the stump in the last
36:51
Speaker 14: week or so.
36:52
Speaker 1: But with them out there, he is.
36:55
Speaker 14: Well, Joe, come on now.
36:56
Speaker 3: It's true.
36:57
Speaker 14: But we he is trying to attract other young men
37:02
Speaker 14: like he had in 2024 to vote for him. But
37:06
Speaker 14: all the polls suggest that that is not working. And
37:09
Speaker 14: look at the outpouring of votes, early votes cast in
37:12
Speaker 14: Texas already. It's like 4.5 million or more already, heavy
37:17
Speaker 14: Latino turnout on almost a quarter of that. is supposed
37:21
Speaker 14: to be the Latino vote. We don't know how they're voting,
37:24
Speaker 14: but he's got his work cut out for him. Moreover,
37:27
Speaker 14: I think James Tallarico is doing a brilliant job of
37:30
Speaker 14: warning people that if they don't stop Ken Paxton, Texas
37:35
Speaker 14: is going to be called, here you go, Joe, Muskville
37:38
Speaker 14: or something along those lines.
37:42
Speaker 1: Well, that was a lot. I will say that I'll
37:44
Speaker 1: be curious, uh, Maybe I won't watch this. I don't know.
37:48
Speaker 6: This is going to be commentary on the anatomy of
37:51
Speaker 6: these three athletes, I'm sure. Rick, the president could spend
37:55
Speaker 6: all day in Texas, but I'm actually more compelled by
37:58
Speaker 6: the itinerary that Speaker Mike Johnson has. He's in New
38:01
Speaker 6: York today with Mike Lawler. And when you look at
38:03
Speaker 6: the states and the districts he's going to, 13 states
38:06
Speaker 6: and 21 districts in a week. It's Arizona, Iowa, Michigan,
38:11
Speaker 6: New York. Yes, once again, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania. and Wisconsin.
38:18
Speaker 6: Isn't this the tour that the president would normally be taking?
38:23
Speaker 2: No, I think the president's doing pretty much what a
38:28
Speaker 2: typical president would do. I mean, he's piling in for
38:32
Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks, you know, a state of day.
38:35
Speaker 2: This president in particular, you know, he likes to sleep
38:37
Speaker 2: at home in the White House.
38:39
Speaker 6: I just mean the red states versus these swing states that,
38:42
Speaker 6: and in some cases, blue states that Mike Johnson's going to.
38:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I mean, one of the things you have
38:46
Speaker 2: to understand is the entire battlegrounds red states, right? I mean,
38:50
Speaker 2: you know, Maine is the only state, you know, where
38:53
Speaker 2: Harris won, where there is a Republican running, you know,
38:57
Speaker 2: for the Senate. So if you've got to go somewhere
39:00
Speaker 2: to beat a Republican, you got to go to red states, right?
39:03
Speaker 2: You're not going to go to a blue state and
39:04
Speaker 2: find a Republican right now in the United States Senate. So,
39:08
Speaker 2: you know, you got to go where the action is.
39:09
Speaker 2: And that just happens to be base states. Good for Republican.
39:12
Speaker 1: I love that.
39:14
Speaker 9: Yeah.
39:14
Speaker 6: Rick Davis and Jeannie Shanzano, where the action is right
39:17
Speaker 6: here on Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power.
39:20
Speaker 6: We'll have much more coming up after this.
39:25
Speaker 5: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
39:28
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39:35
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39:44
Speaker 6: Thanks for joining us here on the Tuesday edition of
39:46
Speaker 6: Balance of Power. As we connect the dots, as we
39:48
Speaker 6: like to say, between Washington and Wall Street, it's so frequently, Kayleigh,
39:51
Speaker 6: that an EO, a regulation, a headline from Washington moves
39:55
Speaker 6: stocks and there'll be no bigger event potentially than the
40:00
Speaker 6: election that is a week out. There are so many
40:02
Speaker 6: questions about what will happen if Dems take control of Congress.
40:05
Speaker 6: Will that usher in a sell-off? People have memories of
40:09
Speaker 6: the Christmas Eve massacre. And it's impossible to know, but
40:12
Speaker 6: everyone on the terminal has an opinion.
40:14
Speaker 7: Yeah, it may be impossible to know for sure, but
40:17
Speaker 7: certainly Bloomberg can ask about it. And that's exactly what
40:19
Speaker 7: Bloomberg did in the latest markets poll survey. Went out
40:23
Speaker 7: to 301 people who responded to this poll that was
40:26
Speaker 7: conducted at the beginning of the month. Broad takeaways. If
40:30
Speaker 7: Democrats sweep the majorities in Congress, better for bonds. Yields down,
40:35
Speaker 7: stocks up. If Republicans stay in power... better for stocks.
40:38
Speaker 7: But let's get the finer details now as we turn
40:40
Speaker 7: to Tatiana Daria from the Markets Live team, where she
40:44
Speaker 7: is a strategist. Tatiana, it's great to have you on
40:47
Speaker 7: Balance of Power. Walk us through what exactly the thinking
40:50
Speaker 7: behind this is. Does it have more to do with
40:53
Speaker 7: fiscal policy or more to do with who is going
40:56
Speaker 7: to have a friendlier approach to the AI boom that
40:58
Speaker 7: is buoying the market right now?
41:00
Speaker 15: So both there, Kayleigh. Kayleigh, you are right that the
41:03
Speaker 15: majority of our MLive readers see the election as a
41:07
Speaker 15: pretty binary outcome for markets. A split Congress or a
41:10
Speaker 15: democratic sweep, just what prediction markets are showing us today,
41:15
Speaker 15: would lead to a rally in the bond market and
41:17
Speaker 15: see them some of the biggest winner in financial markets.
41:20
Speaker 15: And that's on the idea of Fiscal restraint, on the
41:23
Speaker 15: one hand, historically, this is exactly what we have seen.
41:27
Speaker 15: One month and 12 months out, yields have come down
41:30
Speaker 15: without exceptions after the midterms, so a pretty strong track
41:34
Speaker 15: record there. But another worry is that AI trade, as
41:38
Speaker 15: you mentioned, and a Democratic sweep there, threatens a more
41:42
Speaker 15: sour or a harsher rhetoric on this, given the potential
41:46
Speaker 15: for AI regulation. And I would add that the local
41:49
Speaker 15: races will be equally important to watch because governors there
41:53
Speaker 15: do have a lot of leverage on how it all
41:55
Speaker 15: plays out.
41:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, state legislatures will factor into this.
42:01
Speaker 1: Quite a bit here, of course.
42:02
Speaker 6: A prolonged battle over raising the debt ceiling is also
42:06
Speaker 6: something that investors have to look forward to. There have
42:09
Speaker 6: been suggestions, Tatiana, that Republicans might wrap this up in
42:13
Speaker 6: the lame duck session, but I think most people believe
42:16
Speaker 6: that that's something that we'll be banging our heads against
42:18
Speaker 6: the wall over in a grand.
42:19
Speaker 1: Debate in the next Congress.
42:22
Speaker 6: How important will that be on the day after the
42:24
Speaker 6: election to making investment decisions with this looming?
42:28
Speaker 15: Yeah, well, it is a big risk, right, that investors
42:31
Speaker 15: will be thinking about. But I think the first reaction
42:34
Speaker 15: that we will see is sort of one of relief
42:37
Speaker 15: if we do see that split Congress, if we do
42:39
Speaker 15: Democrats sweep the nation. And then, as you said, the
42:44
Speaker 15: last reaction won't be its first, because then we'll have
42:47
Speaker 15: to sort of go through the implication. What does it
42:50
Speaker 15: mean for the debt ceiling? Are Democrats really committed on
42:53
Speaker 15: sort of fiscal restraint? Because they have their own ideas, right?
42:57
Speaker 15: of how to craft sort of that budget. So indeed,
43:01
Speaker 15: that is one of the key risks that will make
43:03
Speaker 15: that bond rally perhaps prove a little temporary after the election.
43:09
Speaker 7: Well, and obviously, when it comes to AI and fiscal
43:13
Speaker 7: matters here, a lot of that is focused on domestic policy.
43:15
Speaker 7: How does geopolitics factor into thinking right now among those
43:21
Speaker 7: surveyed as to what a change in power here in
43:23
Speaker 7: Washington is ultimately going to mean? for the geopolitical landscape
43:26
Speaker 7: and therefore for asset prices?
43:28
Speaker 15: Yeah, well, you know, voters are really focused on affordability
43:32
Speaker 15: and really everything that voters want to see is a
43:35
Speaker 15: lower price. And Democrats have tried repeatedly to sort of
43:40
Speaker 15: defund President Trump's military operations. So we have to expect
43:44
Speaker 15: them to continue to do so. Will that be successful?
43:47
Speaker 15: Will that lead to the end of the war? I mean,
43:50
Speaker 15: that is a pretty sort of big unknown. But I
43:53
Speaker 15: think right now sort of the key factor that is
43:57
Speaker 15: hanging over the stock market is sort of the implications
44:00
Speaker 15: on that AI regulations, not least because support is becoming bipartisan, right?
44:07
Speaker 15: We're seeing Democrats and Republicans now aligning on this issue.
44:12
Speaker 15: And that is why a split Congress, which has traditionally
44:15
Speaker 15: historically been sort of beneficial for the stock market, now
44:19
Speaker 15: is looking a little bit more nuanced because of this
44:22
Speaker 15: particular issue.
44:24
Speaker 6: So gridlock may not be good after all on Wall Street. Tatiana,
44:27
Speaker 6: thank you so much for spending some time with us.
44:30
Speaker 6: And I'll point everybody to our Markets Pulse survey. You
44:33
Speaker 6: can find it on the terminal and online. Midterm win
44:36
Speaker 6: by Democrats seen heralding a bond rally, which would not
44:40
Speaker 6: necessarily play well for stocks. And on this week out,
44:45
Speaker 6: we're not only trying to gauge, of course, what the
44:48
Speaker 6: markets are going to do, but we're trying to figure
44:51
Speaker 6: out exactly where we should be watching, what polls are correct,
44:54
Speaker 6: whether prediction markets are telling us anything close to true,
44:56
Speaker 6: something that we got into yesterday with Jim Kessler, the
45:00
Speaker 6: Democratic strategist and part of Third Way, joined us in
45:03
Speaker 6: studio with his view on the map and what he calls,
45:07
Speaker 6: was it a.
45:08
Speaker 1: Blue tidal wave?
45:09
Speaker 9: Yes.
45:10
Speaker 1: Let's listen.
45:11
Speaker 4: What I found striking about this poll, our last one
45:14
Speaker 4: was in April, everything has moved five or six points
45:18
Speaker 4: towards Democrats in every single issue. Democrats are doing better
45:21
Speaker 4: in that way. Trump is going down in that way.
45:24
Speaker 4: Like it just feels not like a blue wave, but
45:27
Speaker 4: like a blue tidal wave could be developing in my view.
45:31
Speaker 1: All right. From a democratic operative to a Republican one.
45:35
Speaker 6: I'm glad to say we're joining the studio and it's
45:37
Speaker 6: been too long since we've spoken with Alex Conan, senior partner,
45:40
Speaker 6: precision strategies, former senior advisor to Senator Marco Rubio.
45:44
Speaker 1: Alex, welcome back. It's great to see you.
45:46
Speaker 10: Thanks for having me back.
45:46
Speaker 1: Where's your head right now?
45:47
Speaker 6: When you look at the map, does tidal wave pop
45:50
Speaker 6: into your head?
45:51
Speaker 8: Look, I can't predict the future, but what I can
45:54
Speaker 8: do is make comparisons to past elections. In 2006, 20
45:58
Speaker 8: years ago, I was a White House spokesman in the
46:00
Speaker 8: Bush White House, and it felt a lot like this,
46:04
Speaker 8: where you had an unpopular president, you had high gas prices,
46:08
Speaker 8: you had an unpopular war in the Mideast. And that
46:11
Speaker 8: year went really bad for Republicans. We lost six Senate seats.
46:14
Speaker 8: We lost 30 House seats. I don't think it's going
46:16
Speaker 8: to be nearly that bad for Republicans in a week
46:18
Speaker 8: from now. I don't think we're going to lose 30 seats.
46:20
Speaker 8: I don't think we're going to lose six. But the
46:21
Speaker 8: margins are smaller now, right? In fact, I think it's likely.
46:25
Speaker 8: I think most people expect that we will lose the House,
46:28
Speaker 8: but not by 30 seats, right? It's going to be
46:32
Speaker 8: closer than that. And then the Senate, we're a week out.
46:35
Speaker 8: And what's striking about the Senate map right now is
46:37
Speaker 8: we have so many toss-up races. And all these races really,
46:40
Speaker 8: I think, are 50-50, and nobody knows which way they're
46:43
Speaker 8: going to go. which I think is unusual a week
46:46
Speaker 8: out to have this many undecided races. What gives me
46:48
Speaker 8: some hope is that most of these are in red
46:50
Speaker 8: states or in places where we have really, really good
46:53
Speaker 8: candidates like Maine.
46:54
Speaker 9: Okay.
46:54
Speaker 7: So of the toss-up races you're referring to here in
46:58
Speaker 7: red states, Kansas, Mississippi, both places where President Trump has
47:01
Speaker 7: had rallies recently. Mississippi was just yesterday. He's in Texas today.
47:07
Speaker 7: All of these states he won by a healthy double-digit
47:09
Speaker 7: margin in 2024. How real is it in your mind
47:12
Speaker 7: that there is a chance they flip blue for the
47:14
Speaker 7: first time in decades or even a century in the
47:16
Speaker 7: case of Kansas?
47:17
Speaker 10: Well, clearly there's a chance.
47:18
Speaker 8: Otherwise, the president wouldn't be wasting his time going there.
47:21
Speaker 8: Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. We know independent voters
47:25
Speaker 8: are not happy with the status quo. They haven't been
47:26
Speaker 8: happy with the status quo for about a decade, by
47:28
Speaker 8: the way. And then we know Republicans, they don't like
47:32
Speaker 8: the price of gas. A lot of Republicans don't like
47:34
Speaker 8: the war in the Mideast. If we turn out Republicans,
47:37
Speaker 8: we're going to win all these races. These are red
47:39
Speaker 8: states by a lot. These are states that Trump easily
47:42
Speaker 8: won two years ago. If we turn out the Republicans
47:45
Speaker 8: in Texas and Mississippi and Kansas, heck, in Iowa and Ohio,
47:49
Speaker 8: we're going to be fine. So I think Trump going
47:51
Speaker 8: to these states, it does help because at the end
47:53
Speaker 8: of the day, we don't need to try to discourage
47:55
Speaker 8: them turn out. We don't need to try to win
47:57
Speaker 8: over independents. We just need to turn out the base.
47:59
Speaker 3: Are you questioning.
48:01
Speaker 6: The samples, the polls, we heard Speaker Johnson say, I
48:04
Speaker 6: simply don't believe them. They are based on flawed data.
48:07
Speaker 6: Is that why you expect something less than Jim Cassidy?
48:11
Speaker 8: Well, we know why Speaker Johnson's saying that, because it's
48:13
Speaker 8: been true just about every time Trump's been on the ballot.
48:15
Speaker 8: We know that Trump overperforms.
48:18
Speaker 6: Polls are Republicans under sampled at the same time.
48:21
Speaker 8: I don't think we have a good understanding of why
48:23
Speaker 8: that is. I think part of it is just some
48:25
Speaker 8: Republicans just don't like to talk to the pollsters. I
48:27
Speaker 8: suspect some of our voters are just harder to reach.
48:29
Speaker 8: You know, they're working and they don't what have you.
48:31
Speaker 8: But the we know Republicans typically outperform the polls. The
48:36
Speaker 8: problem is the polls right now are really bad for Republicans.
48:39
Speaker 3: Right.
48:39
Speaker 8: So sure, we might over over reform the polls by
48:42
Speaker 8: two or three points by, you know, based on what
48:44
Speaker 8: Trump's done in recent elections. I don't know that two
48:46
Speaker 8: or three points is going to be enough to save, say,
48:48
Speaker 8: the House, but certainly could help in some of these
48:50
Speaker 8: Senate races.
48:51
Speaker 7: Well, we've heard frequently that you don't just need to
48:52
Speaker 7: look at the polls. Just watch where the money is going,
48:54
Speaker 7: and it'll tell you what the reality is on the
48:56
Speaker 7: ground when you see the Senate Leadership Fund investing into
48:59
Speaker 7: places like Kansas, even throwing some money at Mississippi. When
49:02
Speaker 7: we take in aggregate the amount of money that has
49:04
Speaker 7: been spent on behalf of Republicans specifically in PACs that
49:08
Speaker 7: are in support of Republicans, This cycle. What will it
49:12
Speaker 7: say if Republicans aren't able to hold on to a
49:14
Speaker 7: seat like in Texas when so much money was spent there,
49:18
Speaker 7: literally hundreds of millions of dollars?
49:20
Speaker 9: Yeah.
49:21
Speaker 8: Well, look, we talked about comparing 2026 to 2006 and
49:24
Speaker 8: how the map is better for us this year. Another
49:26
Speaker 8: thing we've got going this year, we have a whole
49:27
Speaker 8: lot more money now than we did in 2006. The
49:30
Speaker 8: amount of resources that Republicans have, we're going to be
49:31
Speaker 8: able to outspend Democrats in all.
49:33
Speaker 10: Of these races.
49:34
Speaker 8: So if we still lose, I think it raises real
49:37
Speaker 8: questions about, like, how much does super PAC money really matter?
49:40
Speaker 8: And I think at the presidential level, we've known for
49:42
Speaker 8: a while that Canada spends the most isn't.
49:44
Speaker 2: Going to be the one to win.
49:45
Speaker 8: Otherwise, you know, the owner of our network would be
49:48
Speaker 8: president right now. So I think it would just raise
49:52
Speaker 8: further questions about, you know, how much can you buy
49:55
Speaker 8: an election if you can spend all this money and
49:58
Speaker 8: at the end of the day still lose?
49:59
Speaker 9: I think.
50:01
Speaker 8: No matter what, we know for sure that candidate quality
50:04
Speaker 8: matters more than money. And the reason that the Texas
50:07
Speaker 8: race is close is not because of resources. It's because
50:10
Speaker 8: of candidate quality, especially on the Republican side.
50:13
Speaker 1: You know, some Democrats say that about Michigan.
50:15
Speaker 8: I think that's very accurate, and I think the same
50:18
Speaker 8: is true in Maine. Look, I think both parties, if
50:21
Speaker 8: they could do it again, would do some things differently, right? Like,
50:24
Speaker 8: I think we might want to have our incumbents running
50:26
Speaker 8: in Texas and North Carolina right now.
50:28
Speaker 10: And I think the Democrats would probably want to.
50:29
Speaker 8: Make some different choices in Michigan and Maine.
50:31
Speaker 6: Have you visualized the lame duck session under these various scenarios,
50:35
Speaker 6: Democratic House, Republican Senate, all Democratic Hill? Assuming one or
50:41
Speaker 6: both chambers changes hands and Donald Trump is sitting frustrated
50:46
Speaker 6: at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.
50:48
Speaker 1: What do the American people have to look forward to?
50:50
Speaker 8: You know, it's something that me and my firm and
50:52
Speaker 8: my colleagues, we've spent a lot of time prepping for
50:54
Speaker 8: that because I think the next two months are actually
50:55
Speaker 8: going to be really busy in Washington, D.C. I think
50:58
Speaker 8: if Republicans, especially if we lose the majorities, this is it.
51:01
Speaker 8: We have eight weeks to pass policy for the next
51:04
Speaker 8: two years.
51:04
Speaker 1: Does that include a debt ceiling?
51:05
Speaker 8: I think it includes a debt ceiling. There's things we
51:09
Speaker 8: have to pass on defense spending and government operations. But look,
51:13
Speaker 8: there's talk about doing another reconciliation bill, and I think
51:15
Speaker 8: they're going to try it.
51:16
Speaker 7: Well, is it also potentially, if President Trump's looking at
51:19
Speaker 7: making any personnel changes, time to try to hammer those
51:22
Speaker 7: nominees through?
51:23
Speaker 10: Well, sure.
51:24
Speaker 8: If you want to get somebody appointed to the cabinet,
51:26
Speaker 8: it's going to be a whole lot easier before January 3rd.
51:27
Speaker 7: Do you expect that might happen post-Mittance?
51:29
Speaker 1: I do, yeah, absolutely.
51:30
Speaker 8: And then I also think a lot of judges are
51:32
Speaker 8: going to get, look, now is the time to confirm people,
51:35
Speaker 8: so that's going to take a long time. If I'm
51:37
Speaker 8: a Republican senator, you're not having Thanksgiving, you're not having
51:40
Speaker 8: Christmas if Dems win on November 3rd.
51:43
Speaker 1: Okay. No holidays. Got it.
51:45
Speaker 6: That reconciliation bill you mentioned could be the vehicle for
51:48
Speaker 6: almost everything that we've discussed, right?
51:50
Speaker 1: You could handle the debt ceiling. They have before.
51:53
Speaker 8: Absolutely.
51:53
Speaker 1: And any along with any number.
51:55
Speaker 6: Of other bills that Republicans want to get across the line.
51:58
Speaker 6: How fraught would that process be if we're back to
52:01
Speaker 6: full on fighting in Iran?
52:02
Speaker 8: I mean, it's going to be tough. Forget about the
52:05
Speaker 8: war in the Mideast. You're just going to have attendance problems, right?
52:07
Speaker 8: I mean, in the House, there's going to be some
52:10
Speaker 8: Republican congressmen who lose on November 3rd. They may never
52:14
Speaker 8: come back to Washington, D.C. So I think getting something
52:16
Speaker 8: passed in the House on reconciliation is going to be
52:18
Speaker 8: a challenge. But look, it's been a challenge before, and
52:20
Speaker 8: Speaker Johnson, to his credit, has gotten these things passed.
52:23
Speaker 7: That's right. Any kind of Mike Johnson in leadership if
52:26
Speaker 7: the House is lost?
52:27
Speaker 8: Oh, I don't know. That's a question for the House
52:30
Speaker 8: conference after the fact. But, you know, the fact that
52:33
Speaker 8: he's been to, what, almost two dozen states, campaigned for
52:37
Speaker 8: four dozen candidates, has.
52:39
Speaker 1: Raised a boatload of money.
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Speaker 8: I don't think anybody can fault him for the outcome
52:42
Speaker 8: if they don't get the majority.
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Speaker 1: Thirteen states and 21 districts this week alone.
52:46
Speaker 7: Even busier than the schedule of President Trump.
52:48
Speaker 3: Yeah.
52:49
Speaker 7: Alex Conant, senior partner at Precision Strategies and Republican Strategist.
52:52
Speaker 7: Great to have your take on the midterms. One week out,
52:55
Speaker 7: just seven days to go.
53:00
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
53:03
Speaker 6: sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify
53:06
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53:09
Speaker 6: us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime Eastern
53:12
Speaker 6: at Bloomberg.com.