Latest / Show Us Your Tips / Beaver's Preview - Makybe Diva Stakes Day
Transcript
- Adrian D’Agostino: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to Show Us Your Tips for the Saturday 12th of September card covering Flemington and Rose Hill. ⁓ This is your host, Beaver. And looking at the both of the days at each venue, I'm going to go through and run through some of my selections and a bit of information about what and how I've come up with some interesting days racing. Let's start off with Flemington. ⁓ where we have ⁓ the weather looks good and the track is playing ⁓ at a good four at this stage so should ⁓ provide a fairly consistent opportunity for all horses ⁓ to get their chances and ⁓ put their best foot forward. ⁓ tricky day, ⁓ open fields, ⁓ plenty of chances ⁓ but let's see what the beavers come up with after a flying weekend last weekend. Beaver was was on fire at both venues, but in particular ⁓ in Sydney. ⁓ ⁓ picking about I think about seven out of the ten winners ⁓ for the Beavers. So ⁓ let's hope we can back it up again this weekend and line the Punters pockets with ⁓ plenty of cash. We start off in the first race at Flemington. Race one twelve hundred meters. Probably one of the most open races you'll see in a small field of six. Every ⁓ runner has a genuine chance in this race. So gonna be really interesting to see how this plays out. ⁓ you're sort of looking around six, seven dollars the field. having said that, I have come up with the favorite, ⁓ Naval Academy. I think it gets the right race here. probably one of the the the easier fields, ⁓ or more even fields, as I said earlier. ⁓ it lines up here, gets the two to kilo claim. ⁓ if it doesn't win this race, it's probably time to put a line through it. ⁓ probably a little bit skinny on the six-to-four. side of things. Hopefully it get a little bit better, close to the three dollar mark on the day I've got it on top. ⁓ And looking for the main dangers. I'm gonna go number one, a space rider resuming here has shown ability in the past and does run well fresh and Ruska Roma ⁓ also a resumer here ⁓ can run well. ⁓ in the second race, again an another really open race here. ⁓ but I thought the first ⁓ up run of Unit Five was outstanding, ⁓ narrowly beaten by what appears to be a very good horse in American Eagle. ⁓ drawn up drawn a bit off the track, which is probably my only concern. But if the truck's playing fair, Then I think this horse has a really good turn of foot and can be super hard to beat. ⁓ And over the $4 here ⁓ is nice value. And I'm gonna stick with the main danger being number five, Lara Antipova, the New Zealander. Average first up, but hopefully there's a bit of improvement there and can run better. I don't want to let it get under my guard. Race three, ⁓ another ⁓ really interesting race with a a few good horses here resuming and a number of horses that have shown ability in their short ⁓ racing careers. ⁓ group three race over eleven hundred meters. I'm going for the number two here. The horse here from the John O'Shea stable coming out down for its first start here in this preparation. Has won before at Flemington. Satino Glow was a really nice win back in March. Gets back but should be running on. Gate 14, I don't think, is a problem because we are down the straight, and so it can come down to the outside fence. So I've got it on top as my hardest to beat. Got a big watch on Calamari Ring. ⁓ I liked its first up third. I think there's going to be plenty of improvement here and I think it's of course on the way up around the $11 mark. I think it can run well and certainly a watch on over excited the one start one win and Streisand resuming ⁓ also major players in this race with Satino Glow on top for me. ⁓ moving into the fourth race over the eleven hundred metres race here. ⁓ another open race here. Again, plenty of chances you could find a case for probably most of this field, probably eight out of ten of this field. I'm gonna stick with the Bjorn Baker paradoxium. think it can ⁓ resume and run run very well fresh. ⁓ first up last time, one. Then its next two starts probably slightly disappointing, but they were drawn off the tracking. Those drawn wide in barriers 15 and 13. ⁓ and so didn't really have a lot of chance of in those races, and they were pretty good races there, one being the golden slipper. so resuming here has trailed really well for this. ⁓ I've got it on top, and I've got the main danger, the Walla trained steel wheel, ⁓ third up here, but having won its first two starts in this preparation, ⁓ I think it can run really well here coming down to Melbourne. Race five, ⁓ we get into the stayers race over the twenty five hundred meter meters here. Again, probably a few plotters in this, so ⁓ I think you could put a line through a many of these runners pretty early. I think the two ⁓ in the market, Nico Fraud and Litzdeal, ⁓ both hold the key here. I'm gonna go for Litzdiel. ⁓ third up here. I think it now gets to to peak fitness. ⁓ it runs it can r it's one over twenty. ⁓ finished second over 2600 at Flemington, starting ⁓ even money favourite that day. ⁓ I think it's improved since then. It's stepping up now to to the more suitable 2500 meter journey. I like it. I've got it on top. ⁓ Nico Frod is going very well at the moment. One its last four, no reason it can't win again in in a fairly average field, but probably has been knocking over some fairly average stayers as well. ⁓ but those two will fight it out. Moving on to race six, ⁓ the 1400 meter ⁓ events. again, another really open affair. Sassapel's the favorite here. ⁓ I'm really unsure what to do with Sassapiel. I tipped it last start and I thought it was pretty plain in that event. And I was just a bit unsure because it was up in class. ⁓ sometimes they can be a bit plain ⁓ second up and maybe there's ⁓ third up here there's room for improvement. So I'm not gonna I'm not gonna rule it out, but I just wasn't quite sure at the two dollar eighty mark ⁓ here at Flemington. I'm gonna go for the number ten ⁓ just party ⁓ with Craig Williams aboard. That was a really good resumption there at ⁓ Goldburn winning winning that race, ⁓ beating a good horse in Cross Tasman. hit the line really Hard had had previous form back in Sydney, and we know this Sydney form when it comes to Melbourne ⁓ is hard to ignore. So just party on top for me. ⁓ Main dangers, Fansify that ⁓ struck back to some of its best form last start. Leading, if there's any favours for leaders on this track, ⁓ it will certainly benefit from that. And ⁓ Sassapuel, I can't put have to put in the chances as well. Race seven, which is the first Lego the Quaddy, ⁓ over the 1200 meter, the the Bobby Lewis quality group two event here. ⁓ and it's pretty hard to go past ⁓ a live another day. ⁓ it's just ⁓ one putting all before taking all before it. it was a fantastic ⁓ first up there at Corfield over the 1100. ⁓ just gave nothing else a chance there, just keeps going to another level every start. Again, maybe this is a slight step up in in quality. ⁓ ⁓ But I think we've got a pretty good horse here, and I've got it on top. It's pretty skinny $1.70, but I think you could put in and take out here. Looking for the dangers. ⁓ Put De Bergerac ⁓ at about 30 to 1. He could run well. We know it flies down the Flemington Strait and can be super hard to beat. And similarly, Disneck has had some form and run well, hard to catch and doesn't ⁓ Often win, but so again about the $35 mark could be one to keep an eye on. But ⁓ anything outside the favorite here, ⁓ you're getting pretty good odds, even hedged. was pretty consistent last preparation and on its day can run a huge race. But for me, number five, I live another day. getting into race eight, the Mackay Diva stakes here, group one, the big race of the day, over sixteen hundred meters, and ⁓ put together. Pretty impressive field this one. ⁓ so we've got ⁓ the clear favorite, and my clear on top pick is she's an alibi. ⁓ was very good first up, second behind ⁓ Autumn Glow. That was a great run on the inside, hitting the line ⁓ nicely, gets out now to the 1600 meters. this is perfect for this horse, and ⁓ this is going to be ⁓ super hard to beat in this race again. ⁓ Dollar sixty, ⁓ pretty skinny, but I think ⁓ put in takeout here. ⁓ a few obvious dangers. ⁓ Sedelius, ⁓ we know the quality of of this horse. looks to come back in good order this time in. ⁓ couple of very, very nice trials over the sort of twelve hundred meter distances. I wouldn't thought it's at its best for this, even though it is a group one. I think it's ⁓ probably got bigger races pinned out for it. Cox plate, maybe Melbourne Cup. ⁓ but I expect it to run well and give ⁓ she's alibi a a genuine ⁓ race here. Looking at the other chances, obviously Mr. Bright side it it resumed and went well ⁓ first up. ⁓ it needs to repeat that, and can it continue to repeat those efforts at the ripe old age of nine? Not so sure, but ⁓ couldn't rule it out. ⁓ Treasure the Moment was was pretty good ⁓ first up and be really interesting to see ⁓ how horse like half yours runs in this ⁓ being set for the cup. Not so sure it's the same horse as when it won the Melbourne Cup last year. ⁓ race nine, we move into the Let's Lope Stakes over the fourteen hundred meters and ⁓ yeah, I'm really keen on the favourite here, Gold Coast Bill. ⁓ that was a beautiful resumption ⁓ first up. just ⁓ controlled the pace, controlled the lead there and ⁓ put away ⁓ Tennessee bounds ⁓ quite comfortably there. and you know, a gap between everything else. drawn in ten means it's got to go forward here. But I think again it can take up the running. control the pace and there's not a lot of depth to this field. It's clear on top. Again, main danger has to be salty pearl. Nice run resuming over the 1200, hit the line nicely. We know this horse the further they go, the better it's going to get 1400 suits and if there is anything that's coming hard at Gold Coast Bill at the end, that's that'll be the one. Outside of that I couldn't find too many other chances. And we get to the last race here. Again, another really, really open field with plenty of chances in this race. Really trying to find you know which way to go in this race. Storm Leopard's a favorite at $3.10. We know this horse has got ability. The further they go, the more it'll like it. It's ran very nicely in the group one ⁓ last preparation behind green spaces ⁓ and then resumed with a nice hitting the line quite hard ⁓ at core field over the fourteen hundred steps up to the seventeen hundred meters here. ⁓ drawn sixteen, probably the only question mark here. so a lot will depend on ⁓ where it gets to in the run. ⁓ we know it's gonna go back and we know it's going to be ⁓ finishing off. I've gone with it on top just on the basis that I've really found it hard to find something else to beat it, to be brutally honest. I thought the second emergency miss diverse can run well if it gets ⁓ gets a start. ⁓ again that was pretty good first in its last run at Rose Hill. ⁓ and prior to that at Flemington over the 1200, ⁓ hit the line nice ⁓ in that event. Gets out to the 1700 metres here, probably sits back ⁓ with Storm Leopard. So whichever one is sharpest ⁓ here ⁓ should be hardest to beat. ⁓ and another horse at at nice odds that I thought could run really well is Craig. Solid the first two runs in this preparation over the 1400, now it gets out to the 1700. ⁓ previous preps it's shown to be have a bit of ability. hopefully it's ⁓ problem free, and I think at $11 I would certainly be putting it in my exotics. so that's my ⁓ review of the card at Melbourne. ⁓ my best bet comes up in race nine, number four is gold ⁓ gold coast. Belle. ⁓ I think you can probably put in She's Alibi and A Live Another Day to buff that out and get a little bit of extra value there. And my value bet of the day is going to be raise three, number two, Satino Glow. I'm hoping we can that gets out to around the five-six dollar mark to provide a bit of value there. ⁓ The Beaver Quaddy at Caulfield, starting in race seven, being the first leg, I'm going to go number five, live another day. And number three, hedged, and number fourteen, De Bergerac. In race eight, I'm going to go straight out number twelve, she's Alibi. In the third leg, race nine, I'm going four Gold Coast Bell and one Salty Pearl. And then in the last leg, we're going to go a bit wider and capture a few here to try and get a bit of value. I'm going 13 Storm Leopard, 18 Mist Diverse, 15 Zuryab, 4 Craig, 2 Detonator Jack, excuse me, and 12 St. Lawrence. So that's my summary there for Flemington. Good luck, punters ⁓ in the Melbourne card. Heading now to Rosehill. Again, a a good track, ⁓ four, and the weather looks good ⁓ for another great days of racing. ⁓ found the found the the the Rose Hill card quite a quite a tricky card, ⁓ with lot plenty of chances, open markets, and obviously ⁓ not quite sure how the truck's gonna play, so Going a little bit ⁓ cautiously in that sense, but ⁓ hopefully every horse gets its chance and there's ability to run on, which we have seen. the last racing at Rose Hill. ⁓ prior to that it was pretty dominant d ⁓ leader dominated racing. ⁓ looking at the first race here, I've gone for the top weight Weyburn, albeit drawn ⁓ out in gate 13. That was a impressive run at Ramwick last start. it was only a couple of lengths off Lord Remlat, which is an outstanding horse, ⁓ which was came from back in the field. it was Weyburn sort of looked to go with it for a fair bit there. ⁓ only finished a couple of lengths behind it. I get the three kilo claim here, ⁓ so it gets in here at a reasonable weight. I've got it on top as the the horse to beat. certainly other key chances is the first emergency you miss a brutal miss from the Dunn stable. ⁓ also as weight, the same as Weyburn. they always run well in these ⁓ highway races, and you they can't be left out. And I am Steffi is flying at the moment. ⁓ one is last three, expect it can run well again. Race two, we go to the midway over the twelve hundred meters here. And I think the the key is obviously the Doyle horses here. He's got three horses here, all in the market. ⁓ I'm going for number eleven, better late, at the six dollar mark. it's third up here. ⁓ it was a lovely win up at ⁓ the Newcastle track ⁓ last start. Was was on pace, ⁓ one by two and a half lengths and beat a a fairly reasonable horse, I think. so comes to Sydney n now. With that win under its belt, ⁓ has a good strike rate, and Tim Clark aboard means it can take up the running and be super hard to beat. ⁓ and then the main danger I've got is number four heroic deed from the Doyle stable. third up here, two runs in this preparation, both lovely wins. ⁓ last one being at Warwick Farm. ⁓ that was a nice run. All all its starts have been on a soft track, so it goes to a good first time here. But I think it'll handle that and i is certainly a danger. We go to race three here. the Shandon BM at 78 over 2400. I'm pretty keen here on number three appeared from the Bjorn Baker stable. ⁓ two starts in this preparation. ⁓ both been very, very good since coming from Ireland. one over the 1800 at Newcastle, come to Warwick Farm over the 2200, finished off very nicely there, hitting the you know, hitting the line ⁓ while bit when being on pace. I think it's going to be even further improved here. Takes up the running, and this is a pretty ordinary lot in a small field. Pretty keen it can win. And I think the $2.10 at the moment is ⁓ juicy odds. We moved to the race four here ⁓ over the 1800 meters, and ⁓ two main chances here: number seven mukdalif and number ten anthracites. ⁓ pretty keen on mukdalif here. ⁓ comes up from Melbourne. was scratched midweek from Melbourne race ⁓ due to the track conditions and comes to Sydney here. And this looks like a really, really ⁓ winnable event ⁓ for it since coming from from overseas, had its first run at Corfield, sat three wide, and won like a good horse there. something went wrong in its second start at Flemington, put out for a spell, came back on a heavy track. ⁓ not sure it ⁓ really enjoyed the going there, was solid to the line ⁓ without being fantastic. ⁓ I think here it ⁓ gets its chance and James McDonald aboard ⁓ clear on top for me. Race five, ⁓ another nice little race here over the 1500 meters. ⁓ five to five dollars the field here, and probably one of the most open races on the day. ⁓ but I'm sticking with number eight Transcend here. finally broke through last start in a very tight finish. Was a nice win, sitting on pace, did everything right. in the start prior to that won and had a protest upheld against it, which looked to be fairly unlucky. really good horse, has some problems ⁓ and can play up a little bit, but ⁓ if it puts its best foot forward, I think it's gonna be in the finish again here, drawn perfectly in six, Tommy Berry aboard. Yeah, super hard to beat here. ⁓ Main Danger, I think number three, Mr. Verse. again third up. we just talked about it, ⁓ Fonnington, that's a dual acceptor down there. So depending where it runs, I think it can be super hard to beat. but yeah, on top for me, number eight, transcend. ⁓ moving on to race six, ⁓ the Ming Dynasty Group Three here over the 1400 meters. And this is ⁓ another nice little race here with horses packed with potential. I'm going for number five, Tenabarn, ⁓ from the Brad Whitop stable. ⁓ nice little odds here around the six dollar mark. Really promising ⁓ cult this one. ⁓ it was good. First up here at Canterbury on this off track. ⁓ it was only a small field. Started favourite, but love the way it let down. showed a really, really good turn of foot, and I think it might have a bit of ability. I'm expecting it to run super well in this. And I thought Savagram had excuses last start. ⁓ after winning first up, Was heavily backed ⁓ last start at Rose Hill over the 1300, finished fourth, just just held ground. but they kind of sort of went slow when they dashed home in that event. So I think it can run really well here at the $7. certainly some value there. I think you can play both the five and the two. ⁓ sorry, I think you can play the five and the eleven. ⁓ tenabum and subagram. We then move over to the race seven, and we've got the Shiraco Stakes here over 1200 metres. Group two event. See some lovely horses resuming here in Lazura and Weeping Woman, and then we've got a couple of very nice horses that have had the one-start back. and ⁓ go second up here in Lady Shenandoah, Apocalyptic, and Grant Gangster Granny. So this is Five, very good chances in this race. ⁓ very hard to split on on phase value. ⁓ I'm just going with Weeping Woman. ⁓ I think this horse just keeps improving and getting better and better. first up here ⁓ with Timmy Clark aboard at four dollars twenty. Gate six, just hoping it gets a little bit gets the right run, gets a bit of luck in running, and I think it hopefully there's been some natural improvements since the the last spell. And if so, I've got no doubt this horse will be finishing in the top three, ⁓ if not winning this race. ⁓ apocalyptic, ⁓ it was Wasn't quite sure what to make of its first run. ⁓ probably got a little bit back out of its ground, ⁓ but did power home and finished off very nicely here. I think the the step up to the 1200 is is very much in its favour. Gate one has to probably get in behind the leader and get the split at the right time there. I don't think it wants to get buried back on the fence. I think that could be a bit of a problem. So a bit of clever riding's gonna be required there from apocalyptic and obviously the Of resuming here with J Macaboard can't be ruled out. But I've got a number eight weeping woman on top, but a race that has five genuinely good chances. Race eight ⁓ is the run to the rose group two event here with a lot of Interesting runners in this race. ⁓ s some some horses on the way up here. I'm gonna go with the favourite St. Gothard. ⁓ it's just super hard to go past it. It's from the Wallace Stables. Only had the two runs last time in, both won. ⁓ they were very, very good wins, a lot to like of them. Gold Coast full length winner, Warwick Farm, ⁓ a nice little winner, being well backed, ⁓ trialling well for this. I think two dollars fifty is a good price and I think you'll be getting the chocolates here on Saint Gothard. I think they're all running for second here. ⁓ Central Europe was a a very nice run first up there. ⁓ keen to see how It goes and number nine, Cormia, ⁓ around the $13. I think it can run well, has been trialling well for this, but yeah, pretty keen on the seven in this. Race nine, ⁓ we get out to the Theo Marx Group 2, a 1300 meter race, very open race here. ⁓ favorite is Sky Hook. ⁓ I just thought it was a bit skinny, ⁓ resuming here. ⁓ obviously a horse pack with plenty of potential. ⁓ but gate thirteen, Yeah, just just a bit confused as to where it's gonna get in the run here. So I've gone for number seven, Verona Rose. Resuming, ⁓ goes well first up, has won two from four, ran some really nice races, ⁓ went last in work, ⁓ in particular a nice Ramwick win beating Manal over the fourteen hundred. and even first up ⁓ over the twelve hundred was only a length behind Weeping Woman, which we've tipped in one of the earlier races. I'm expecting Verona Rose to run really well first up. Nine gates no problem. And I think if it ⁓ can get in the running line here is going to be super hard to beat each way all day. Moving on to the last race, ⁓ again another open race here with plenty of chances. ⁓ I'm gonna stick with the last start winner in Sovereign Hill. ⁓ third up here, love them third up. Thought there was lots to like about the last start win when it's took care of Erno, ⁓ who has subsequently come out and won very nice last weekend. and if it can repeat that performance, I think it's gonna be right in the finish here. Gate six is a perfect draw. I've got it on top. ⁓ Main Danger Eagle Express, ⁓ that was a very nice resumption. did have a lot of favours, but ⁓ again. Gate one here, ⁓ can sit behind the speed and can be super hard to beat. So ⁓ I've got it on top. ⁓ I've got it in second place ⁓ behind Sovereign Hill. I think those two horses hold the key ⁓ and can fight the last race out. So that sums up my day here at ⁓ Rose Hill. ⁓ my best bet ⁓ comes up in Race four, number seven, Mukdlif, but very keen on Saint Gothard later in the day. And my value bet comes up ⁓ in race five, number eight, transcend, around the five, six dollar mark. ⁓ I think that's ⁓ nice, quite handy value there each way all day. that's my wrap of Rose Hill. Good luck, punters, at both Flemington and Rose Hill. And it wouldn't be a show-ass your tips show without the Beaver taking a snapshot at ⁓ Brisbane. So Doomban. couple of horses to have a look at at Doomban. race. Two number three live a little. I think it's going to run very nicely ⁓ in top form at the moment. I think that can get your win up there. Follow that up with race five, number five grand, flying at the moment. I think those two present the best two bets on the day up there at Doomban. And then if you're looking for something later in the day, I think you can get ⁓ Hard to beat around the five, six dollar mark in race nine is number six compel. And to finish off the day, I think the last race, number one band of brothers, is something to get out in the last race. ⁓ that's Doomin. That shows you tips Beaver. ⁓ good luck, punters. Let's hopefully we can replicate some of our last week's work and ⁓ happy punting. Ciao for now.