Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Tommy Grisafi | Stocks Crash

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Tommy Grisafi | Stocks Crash · AG Bull

0:10
SPEAKER_02: De Simbercorn hit something of a downside target today.
0:15
SPEAKER_02: It hit a watch zone anyway.
0:17
SPEAKER_02: Will it hold?
0:19
SPEAKER_02: Jan Bean's down into the 11s now.
0:23
SPEAKER_02: Today we'll talk sentiments.
0:25
SPEAKER_02: I'll report on findings from a bankers association survey and we'll lay some groundwork for tomorrow's conversation.
0:32
SPEAKER_02: And Tommy will talk about crashing out all that.
0:35
SPEAKER_02: And heck, I might even read a poem.
0:38
SPEAKER_02: We'll we'll see about that when we get there.
0:55
SPEAKER_02: Bo, your pal, Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman.
0:59
SPEAKER_02: Pleased as punch to be with you here on this Thursday.
1:03
SPEAKER_02: It's uh I almost said October.
1:06
SPEAKER_02: November.
1:07
SPEAKER_02: November 5.
1:08
SPEAKER_02: Here it is.
1:09
SPEAKER_02: Uh already Thursday, gang.
1:11
SPEAKER_02: Hope everything is well with you.
1:12
SPEAKER_02: The harvest window, I think, is still pretty well wide open in most areas.
1:16
SPEAKER_02: I uh I hope you're you're tuned into the show, perhaps on your Agbol Bluetooth speaker.
1:21
SPEAKER_02: Hey, a little birdie told me that uh we're ordering more because they've been so popular, and we're just happy to send a little thank you to everyone.
1:29
SPEAKER_02: In fact, AgBull.com is where you can find out more information on a subscription to our premium site, AgBull.com or 855-737 Farm if you just need to talk a little bit.
1:42
SPEAKER_02: You can also check out Wiesmeyer's perspectives there.
1:45
SPEAKER_02: Hook into that great content if you'd like to.
1:48
SPEAKER_02: All kinds of great stuff over at AgBull.com.
1:51
SPEAKER_02: You know, fill your shopping list over at AgBull.com and for a one-year annual subscript, we'll send you one of those Agbol Bluetooth speakers.
2:00
SPEAKER_02: We've we're gathering pictures of people who have them in their tractors.
2:04
SPEAKER_02: Uh we we talked about one in Indiana yesterday that's that's hooked on what I believe might be a moisture reader right there in the in the co-op outside the scale.
2:15
SPEAKER_02: Something like that.
2:15
SPEAKER_02: That's what it looked like to me anyway, but we certainly do appreciate it.
2:19
SPEAKER_02: In fact, you know what?
2:20
SPEAKER_02: Full shout out.
2:20
SPEAKER_02: Come on, full shout-out if you've uh reached out and we've uh we've sent you one of those.
2:26
SPEAKER_02: We appreciate you all.
2:28
SPEAKER_02: I'm gonna talk to Tommy in a little bit.
2:30
SPEAKER_02: I got a couple of news stories here, a couple of things that that I just kind of want to put on your radar.
2:37
SPEAKER_02: Like I said, corn hit something of a downside target.
2:40
SPEAKER_02: I don't know if it was a target necessarily.
2:42
SPEAKER_02: When I get to the settlements, you'll see what I mean.
2:45
SPEAKER_02: And here we are, Jan Beans, down into the 11s.
2:47
SPEAKER_02: The last couple of days, I've been, you know, I tore myself away from the November contract and was looking at the Jan and yesterday, talking to Stephen Davis, I said, Well, at least the Jan is still in the 12s.
3:01
SPEAKER_02: And here we are.
3:02
SPEAKER_02: What a difference a day makes.
3:05
SPEAKER_02: We'll get to all of that and much more.
3:07
SPEAKER_02: Can't wait to talk to Tommy here.
3:08
SPEAKER_02: We're gonna have a little fun with him at the end, too.
3:11
SPEAKER_02: It's the birthday of a rocker that if you're from my generation, you know.
3:16
SPEAKER_02: Um, now Tommy is substantially younger than I am, so he this might go right over his head, but we're gonna play a little, finish the lyric when we get there.
3:24
SPEAKER_02: That'll be later on in the show.
3:26
SPEAKER_02: We'll do the serious stuff first, though.
3:27
SPEAKER_02: In fact, let's get right to it.
3:29
SPEAKER_02: I've got weekly export sales.
3:31
SPEAKER_02: Wheat was within the range of expectations and above year ago, but well below the previous week.
3:39
SPEAKER_02: Corn export sales were below a week ago and below year ago, but still pretty strong.
3:46
SPEAKER_02: 1.3 million metric tons looks like soybeans had a hard time matching the prior week's impressive tally, but bested the year ago total at 1.5 million metric tons.
3:58
SPEAKER_02: You might recall last week we were we were up in the uh we were way up there.
4:03
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, 2.576 million metric tons.
4:05
SPEAKER_02: That's tough to get to week after week after week.
4:08
SPEAKER_02: So uh I'm I'm calling soybeans at one and a half million tons uh fairly respectable in the weekended October 29.
4:17
SPEAKER_02: Let's get to the tail of the ticker.
4:18
SPEAKER_02: Corn soybeans and wheat dipped in early session trade, but quickly bounced off early session lows.
4:24
SPEAKER_02: Notably, January soybean futures.
4:27
SPEAKER_02: I wrote this this morning.
4:28
SPEAKER_02: I was so hopeful.
4:29
SPEAKER_02: I was so hopeful.
4:30
SPEAKER_02: Notably, January soybean futures fell to$11.98 before recovering back above key$12.
4:37
SPEAKER_02: I think it popped back up as I was watching, up to about$12.03 or something like that.
4:42
SPEAKER_02: I thought, okay, everything's gonna be all right.
4:46
SPEAKER_02: And wait till you wait till we get to the settlements here.
4:49
SPEAKER_02: Livestock futures were under pressure right out of the gate.
4:53
SPEAKER_02: That's kind of a spooky day for the feeders.
4:56
SPEAKER_02: We had a recovery at uh toward the end of the session.
4:58
SPEAKER_02: But uh rounding into the lunch hour, feeder cattle stampeded to the downside, falling more than eight bucks as lean hogs slid around three dollars lower, and fat cattle softened more than four dollars.
5:12
SPEAKER_02: Corn futures were around three cents lower, soybeans softened nine cents.
5:16
SPEAKER_02: The jan slipped back into that 11-handled territory.
5:19
SPEAKER_02: Doggone it.
5:20
SPEAKER_02: And winter wheat futures bucked the trend, gaining three to five cents just around lunchtime.
5:26
SPEAKER_02: Now let's talk about the settlements.
5:28
SPEAKER_02: Here's that December corn.
5:30
SPEAKER_02: Here's the number down four and one quarter cents on the day.
5:34
SPEAKER_02: 440.
5:36
SPEAKER_02: Right on the button.
5:37
SPEAKER_02: How many times on this program have we talked to uh people saying, well, we're looking, we're watching that for well, there's potential down to the 440 area.
5:46
SPEAKER_02: There's risk down there.
5:47
SPEAKER_02: We could get there, we're there.
5:49
SPEAKER_02: 440.
5:51
SPEAKER_02: My question now is okay, is it enough?
5:55
SPEAKER_02: Is it enough?
5:56
SPEAKER_02: Is the is the market gonna cry uncle and bounce off of 440?
6:00
SPEAKER_02: Because as we're talking about, well, it could go to 440.
6:03
SPEAKER_02: I mean, maybe it's it's maybe it's a bounce point.
6:06
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
6:06
SPEAKER_02: We're gonna have to watch.
6:08
SPEAKER_02: We'll uh obviously we'll know more this time tomorrow.
6:11
SPEAKER_02: The March contract down three and three quarters, 454.
6:14
SPEAKER_02: I like that number a lot better.
6:16
SPEAKER_02: And then uh over to the May, 463 and a quarter is down three and one quarter cents.
6:21
SPEAKER_02: The January soybeans settled out 14 cents lower on the day, gang.
6:25
SPEAKER_02: 1188 and one quarter.
6:30
SPEAKER_02: Meal was mixed.
6:31
SPEAKER_02: Nearby meal futures were uh were lower and the deferred were higher there.
6:37
SPEAKER_02: You might remember we talked with Stephen Davis yesterday, Davis Commodities LLC.
6:40
SPEAKER_02: We decided that you know, instead of the old adage, you shouldn't trust a bean oil-led rally that maybe given the changing dynamics in the soybean complex these days, you shouldn't trust a bean meal-led rally.
6:53
SPEAKER_02: We're calling it the uh the Davis theorem is uh is what we're actually the uh the Davis principle, I think, is what we what we ended on.
7:01
SPEAKER_02: So uh the Davis principle.
7:03
SPEAKER_02: I don't know if the Davis principle is is telling us anything given the mixed action in soybean meal.
7:07
SPEAKER_02: Soybean oil was in fact lower on the day.
7:11
SPEAKER_02: Your winter wheats were mixed nearby Chicago wheats higher slightly, fractionally, in fact.
7:17
SPEAKER_02: The deferred's fractionally lower.
7:19
SPEAKER_02: Let's go to the D's at 599 and a quarter.
7:21
SPEAKER_02: That's up three quarters of one cent.
7:23
SPEAKER_02: The March up just one quarter cent at 609 and three quarters.
7:26
SPEAKER_02: KC looks a lot better, a lot happier in the KC weed.
7:30
SPEAKER_02: Three cents higher in the D's at 635 and three quarters.
7:34
SPEAKER_02: The March up three and a quarter at 643 even.
7:38
SPEAKER_02: Over to my livestock's tab.
7:40
SPEAKER_02: Got a little ugly in the in the feeder cattles, especially.
7:44
SPEAKER_02: As I said, we were down like eight, nine bucks almost around lunchtime.
7:48
SPEAKER_02: Here we are at settlement.
7:50
SPEAKER_02: 320.32 and a half is the Jan feeder cattle contract.
7:54
SPEAKER_02: That's down$5.40.
7:56
SPEAKER_02: I'm calling that a pretty decent recovery from session lows there.
8:01
SPEAKER_02: A valiant effort, anyway, in the feeder cattle.
8:03
SPEAKER_02: Fat cattle, I'm looking at the February$3.20 lower,$217.62.5.
8:08
SPEAKER_02: And over to the lean hogs,$245 lower in the D's at$55 and 10.
8:14
SPEAKER_02: The February contract,$212.5 lower at$60, 17 and 12.
8:20
SPEAKER_02: Before we proceed, let me just thank plus 500 for programming support.
8:26
SPEAKER_02: Plus 500 is where my squad and I get all of our real-time quotes and uh a host of dandy features, futures, options, what have you.
8:34
SPEAKER_02: Plus 500, we trust plus 500.
8:36
SPEAKER_02: Thanks, plus 500 trust, plus 500.
8:41
SPEAKER_02: All right, let's uh let's move on.
8:43
SPEAKER_02: We've got Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer to talk about, and I've got a couple of couple of slides to bring up.
8:51
SPEAKER_02: Did I not bring those in?
8:52
SPEAKER_02: Where do they go?
8:53
SPEAKER_02: There they are.
8:54
SPEAKER_02: All right, now I've got them.
8:55
SPEAKER_02: What we're looking at here is the indices of current conditions and future expectations.
9:01
SPEAKER_02: Got those out of order.
9:01
SPEAKER_02: Sorry there, Roberto.
9:03
SPEAKER_02: Got them out of order a little bit, but we're here now.
9:06
SPEAKER_02: The the overall in index increased 123 points to 126 points.
9:13
SPEAKER_02: So that's a three-point increase in the overall barometer.
9:17
SPEAKER_02: The index of current conditions increased by 16.
9:20
SPEAKER_02: The index of future expectations dropped by two points.
9:24
SPEAKER_02: So you can see them kind of moving in opposite directions there.
9:27
SPEAKER_02: Now, this was taken toward the middle of October.
9:32
SPEAKER_02: So election results and such won't be won't be reflected in here.
9:36
SPEAKER_02: You know what?
9:37
SPEAKER_02: I need to cough.
9:37
SPEAKER_02: Just stand by high input costs remain the biggest concern.
9:48
SPEAKER_02: Thanks, everybody.
9:49
SPEAKER_02: Despite this concern, the farm financial performance index increased from 90 to 94, and the farm capital investment index increased from 39 to 55.
10:01
SPEAKER_02: Now let's talk about that farm capital index.
10:04
SPEAKER_02: The increase, when asked if now is a good time to make capital investments in their operations.
10:11
SPEAKER_02: Survey respondents gave what on the surface appears to be a resounding yes.
10:17
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, let's spend some money.
10:18
SPEAKER_02: Let's spend some money on the operation.
10:20
SPEAKER_02: The index was up 39 to 55, uh, from 39 to 55 points, the highest level since December 2025.
10:28
SPEAKER_02: That feels pretty good.
10:30
SPEAKER_02: But a deeper dive suggests the read isn't a blanket positive, as only 20% of those respondents said it is, in fact, a good time to invest in machinery or buildings.
10:44
SPEAKER_02: So thinking about doing improvements, spending some money, some capital on their on their operations, just not on machinery and not on buildings.
10:54
SPEAKER_02: I wonder if they're talking more small ticket sort of items rather than these large ticket items.
10:59
SPEAKER_02: And then with the uh with the election in view, sentiments regarding trade and tariff policy soured sharply, with the majority of respondents saying they believed increased use of tariffs will weaken the ag economy.
11:16
SPEAKER_02: And if you can see this here uh diagram that they've got here, the chart, you know, it it does seem like survey respondents were willing to hang in and give it a chance.
11:27
SPEAKER_02: And finally, here uh we've flipped to significantly negative sentiments regarding the impacts of tariffs.
11:36
SPEAKER_02: And, you know, I I think, like I said, this was survey was taken pre-election, but it certainly may have presaged, may have told the future just a little bit about how farm country might end up voting.
11:51
SPEAKER_02: Moving on, the American Bankers Association has released results of its 2026 annual survey.
11:57
SPEAKER_02: According to an ABA press release, the survey released today at the Ag Bankers Conference in Minneapolis found that ag loan performance remained generally strong in 2026 despite continued financial pressure across much of the farm economy.
12:14
SPEAKER_02: However, lenders reported that tighter margins and elevated input costs have led to higher credit demand, even among producers benefiting from stronger commodity markets.
12:26
SPEAKER_02: ABA's research and economy policy manager Ryan Lee noted, quote, ag borrowers are seeing better farm profitability than they expected a year ago, with support from government payments, but that does not mean financial stress has disappeared.
12:43
SPEAKER_02: He continued, quote, working capital remains under pressure, loan demand is rising, lenders continue to watch credit quality closely.
12:52
SPEAKER_02: The survey reflects both the resilience of farm borrowers and the challenges many producers still face heading into 2027.
13:00
SPEAKER_02: That from Ryan Lee from the American Bankers Association.
13:03
SPEAKER_02: Some other key findings from the survey include these liquidity remains the most persistent concern for producers.
13:12
SPEAKER_02: Higher operating costs are increasing demand for credit.
13:16
SPEAKER_02: However, approval rates do remain strong.
13:20
SPEAKER_02: Farmland values remain resilient.
13:23
SPEAKER_02: And as has been the case, crop and livestock producers continue to face sharply different conditions.
13:31
SPEAKER_02: And just one more before we get to uh the Ag Bowl T-Rex, Tommy Grassafi himself, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that refiners are, quote, printing money.
13:41
SPEAKER_02: Growth Energy CEO Emily Score says, quote, despite recent announcements of near record profits, refiners are asking for even more handouts, urging EPA to walk away from President Trump's commitment to fully account for lost biofuel gallons and make producers and farmers whole.
13:59
SPEAKER_02: Score continued at a time when farms are facing a sixth consecutive year of negative returns and consumers are pleading for relief at the pump, we shouldn't be looking for new ways to line refiners' pockets.
14:11
SPEAKER_02: Growth Energy, the nation's largest biofuel trade association, called on the U.S.
14:16
SPEAKER_02: EPA to quickly finalize its proposed rule that accounts for lost gallons from recent small refinery exemptions.
14:23
SPEAKER_02: That's SREs, under the renewable fuel standard.
14:27
SPEAKER_02: Now, tune in tomorrow and watch me.
14:31
SPEAKER_02: This should be entertaining, if at least entertaining.
14:35
SPEAKER_02: Watch me get schooled on the ethanol industry by David Brecht, who's coming with some really great insights into the biz, including why it's been so difficult to get year-round E15 across the finish line.
14:49
SPEAKER_02: I've I've been talking about this for uh at least a week now.
14:52
SPEAKER_02: I had a conversation with him on the phone.
14:54
SPEAKER_02: We talked, we talked it all out, and I'm very excited.
14:56
SPEAKER_02: I got two pages of notes here.
14:58
SPEAKER_02: I just hope we have enough time.
15:00
SPEAKER_02: You know what I'm saying?
15:01
SPEAKER_02: We'll uh we'll at least hit the high points, and I imagine we're gonna have to have him back a couple of times to school us up on what's what really is the deal.
15:11
SPEAKER_02: And what I like about Mr.
15:13
SPEAKER_02: Brecht is he comes from outside the typical voices that we hear from when it comes to ethanol.
15:21
SPEAKER_02: He's coming from more of a legal standpoint, he's been in the business for, I believe he said 20 years, maybe longer.
15:27
SPEAKER_02: I know there's a two on it, and so he he's bringing us some terrific perspective, just a bank of knowledge that I'm uh very excited to tap into.
15:39
SPEAKER_02: So uh do tune in for tomorrow afternoon's program.
15:42
SPEAKER_02: That's tomorrow on AgSquawk.
15:44
SPEAKER_02: And with that, you may have seen him on extensive election coverage panel after discussion.
16:00
SPEAKER_02: He was live streaming during the results.
16:02
SPEAKER_02: Tommy Grasafi, we've seen almost enough of your face this week, but I said no.
16:07
SPEAKER_02: No, my viewers demand more.
16:10
SPEAKER_02: How are you doing, brother?
16:11
SPEAKER_02: You look fantastic.
16:12
SPEAKER_02: It's been a busy week for you.
16:15
SPEAKER_00: Hi, first time caller, long time listening.
16:18
SPEAKER_00: What's up?
16:20
SPEAKER_00: I sound a little echoey.
16:21
SPEAKER_00: Am I right?
16:22
SPEAKER_00: No, you sound good.
16:22
SPEAKER_00: No, okay, buddy.
16:23
SPEAKER_00: I think he's all right.
16:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:24
SPEAKER_00: You ever hear like how many people actually like their real voice?
16:29
SPEAKER_00: The real voice?
16:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:31
SPEAKER_00: Most people don't like the real voice.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: I was watching that Billy Joel on YouTube.
16:35
SPEAKER_00: He's like, I hate my voice.
16:36
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, Billy Joel, come on, guy.
16:38
SPEAKER_00: Billy Joel.
16:39
SPEAKER_00: I guess he likes the way he plays piano.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: Speaking of music, I think markets are dancing today.
16:45
SPEAKER_00: Good segue.
16:46
SPEAKER_02: Good segue.
16:47
SPEAKER_02: Feeder cattle gave us a scare, but kind of pulled themselves together at least for a not too terrible finish, didn't they?
16:54
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: And they're people get themselves in in this position where they they understand the fundamentals and the fundamentals of cattle are bullish, but they've been bullish for five years, right?
17:06
SPEAKER_00: And you get an outside move in these markets like we did today.
17:10
SPEAKER_00: Um I just sent Jed a tweet, he'll probably pull it up in a little bit.
17:13
SPEAKER_00: But they're saying the stock market from a value money, not like the day that Dow Jones went down 500 and it was only worth 2,500.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: But the markets were at such a high price, Dow Jones 54, 5,000, right?
17:27
SPEAKER_00: We're not 2,500, we're 50,000.
17:31
SPEAKER_00: Today was one of the greatest losses of capital since the really bad day we had.
17:37
SPEAKER_00: We had a lot of bad days during COVID, but there was one day in the stock market in particular that had a really big, big down day.
17:43
SPEAKER_00: So when you see the NASDAQ's down 5% today, you're like, eh, what's 5% amongst friends?
17:48
SPEAKER_00: Well, when you're talking about trillions of dollars losing 5%, the overall American markets today wiped out$2.5 trillion of value.
17:59
SPEAKER_00: Now, luckily, Davis, we had it to give.
18:02
SPEAKER_00: You see, companies like Sand is GMD election night.
18:06
SPEAKER_00: I was watching the business channel, and they're like two companies, Apple and maybe Microsoft, all-time highs two days ago.
18:13
SPEAKER_00: So this isn't like a debacle of should you get out of anything.
18:18
SPEAKER_00: This is a natural correction.
18:20
SPEAKER_00: I wrote down some numbers though.
18:21
SPEAKER_00: Like, what can people expect the stock market to go down?
18:24
SPEAKER_00: What's normal?
18:26
SPEAKER_00: In general terms, a five per a 5% correction can happen anytime for any reason.
18:32
SPEAKER_00: You don't have to make excuses for it.
18:34
SPEAKER_00: 10% correction, you should be like, hey, check the brakes.
18:37
SPEAKER_00: Maybe the brake pads are low.
18:38
SPEAKER_00: How's the air in the front tires, right?
18:41
SPEAKER_00: But then when you get a 20% correction, I believe that's where the NASDAQ's starting to end up.
18:46
SPEAKER_00: You get a 20% correction, you get in what's called bear market territory, right?
18:52
SPEAKER_00: And as we know, Warren Buffett, not too far from where you are, stocks go from the bottom left to the top right.
18:58
SPEAKER_00: And over history, they they do very, very, very, very well.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: But you get days like today that wake people up and you get people who I definitely want to come on the show and say, I am never going to apologize for the stock market going down.
19:12
SPEAKER_00: I understand the history of the stock market.
19:14
SPEAKER_00: If someone calls me and says, why's the market down?
19:16
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, because it's allowed to do that.
19:18
SPEAKER_00: Like, I don't have to make it.
19:20
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
19:21
SPEAKER_00: This is something I just I just noticed on uh X about the uh I find this hard to believe, but biggest single day wipeout in U.S.
19:30
SPEAKER_00: stock market history.
19:30
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, when?
19:31
SPEAKER_00: And they're like, today 2.8 trillion has been wiped out from the U.S.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: stock market today.
19:35
SPEAKER_00: So far, the largest one day in hitch history previous, the largest single day wipeout was 2.69 trillion during the COVID crash.
19:44
SPEAKER_00: So we definitely uh took a little money from some people today.
19:48
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and you but you said it though.
19:50
SPEAKER_02: Part of the reason why this could be a record wipeout is because of the levels that we had attained.
19:57
SPEAKER_02: I'd been watching the 52K in the Dow and was super excited yesterday.
20:02
SPEAKER_02: We busted through that pretty hard up to 53 and change, and now here we are.
20:08
SPEAKER_02: We basically gave gave most of that back and just sort of ended up right where we started, didn't we?
20:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and and I used to talk in Dow terms all the time too.
20:17
SPEAKER_00: And the Dow Jones has changed a lot, it's like 30 stocks.
20:21
SPEAKER_00: So what people really, really watch, I'm old school.
20:24
SPEAKER_00: I still think of my parents texted me today, my dad texted me, Dow Jones is down 1500.
20:30
SPEAKER_00: You you okay?
20:31
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, Yeah, I'm doing all right, but I'm allowed to short the stock market, right?
20:34
SPEAKER_00: Through futures, options, everything else, just like you can short corn or cattle or everything.
20:40
SPEAKER_00: But in general, you want to you want to own it.
20:43
SPEAKER_00: But yes, the SP 500, that is where I I was talking to Stephen Davis, actually, he sits right next to me here at NASVIC in Nashville.
20:53
SPEAKER_00: And I said, I don't think the commodity people could fathom how much volume goes through the Spideys.
21:00
SPEAKER_00: The Spideys is the ETF of you may I think you may own some, right?
21:04
SPEAKER_00: You can own QQQs, Spideys, whatever, diamonds, diamonds, the Dow in stock form.
21:10
SPEAKER_00: Spideys are the SP, and then you have QQQs.
21:14
SPEAKER_00: But then what they have, Davis, and this is what gets in people in trouble, is that they have that if you buy one unit, that's one, but then they have 2x long, 3x long, you can buy 2x shorts, 3x shorts.
21:27
SPEAKER_00: So you get these leveraged stock indic products that you can trade in a stock account, right?
21:33
SPEAKER_00: Typically something reserved for a 401k, uh IRA, you know, something like that.
21:37
SPEAKER_00: But you can open any of us.
21:39
SPEAKER_00: My kids all have stock accounts, right?
21:41
SPEAKER_00: You can open a Robin Hood account, Schwab, Fidelity, any of these good ones.
21:45
SPEAKER_00: So fi.
21:46
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
21:46
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
21:47
SPEAKER_00: Principle.
21:48
SPEAKER_00: And people get they get involved in these.
21:51
SPEAKER_00: So think of this.
21:52
SPEAKER_00: Someone gets in their head that stocks can only go up.
21:54
SPEAKER_00: You know what's better than stocks only going up?
21:56
SPEAKER_00: It's only something that gives you twice the enjoyment when stocks go up, or three X the enjoyment.
22:02
SPEAKER_00: Kind of like nicotine pouches, right?
22:04
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: You start with your three milligram and you go up to your six, and you go up to your Nine and a little bit wouldn't do it, a little bit wouldn't do it.
22:12
SPEAKER_00: That little guns and roses there, huh?
22:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
22:15
SPEAKER_00: Dr.
22:15
SPEAKER_00: Blackstone, or Mr.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: Brownstone.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: Brownstone.
22:18
SPEAKER_02: You should do a little, but a little wouldn't do it.
22:19
SPEAKER_02: So the little got maw and mo.
22:22
SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
22:22
SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
22:26
SPEAKER_00: You get a shout out.
22:27
SPEAKER_02: It's really nice to be shouted out.
22:29
SPEAKER_02: I spend all this time shouting people out.
22:31
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, little uh you get paid well to get a shout out.
22:34
SPEAKER_00: You uh what else can I get here?
22:37
SPEAKER_00: Hey, so people get in trouble.
22:39
SPEAKER_00: People get in trouble, people get this euphoric.
22:45
SPEAKER_00: I'm missing out.
22:46
SPEAKER_00: I'll tell you a story.
22:48
SPEAKER_00: This weekend we had a friend over the house.
22:50
SPEAKER_00: Uh, you're gonna do that interview with him with the knee, the doctor, right?
22:53
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, you bet.
22:55
SPEAKER_00: And he said, Man, you wouldn't believe it.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: All my young doctor friends, he's 55, but the young doctors who are 45, which pretty much means they just got out of college, right?
23:05
SPEAKER_00: They're so into these tech stocks that they're literally coming out of surgery, taking off their mask and looking at their phone.
23:11
SPEAKER_00: Uh that only tells me one thing.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: They're too involved.
23:15
SPEAKER_00: You should never come out of surgery and look at your phone.
23:18
SPEAKER_00: No one day should ever matter.
23:20
SPEAKER_00: And that's a a quote from Gordy Lynn, who after this phone call, I'm actually gonna talk to Lynn Boys, give them a big shout out, Adam and them.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: But Gordy Lynn had this philosophy that no one day in the market should ever affect you that much.
23:33
SPEAKER_00: And so these people get over-levered over this, over that.
23:36
SPEAKER_00: You could do it with options.
23:38
SPEAKER_00: You know, sometimes people buy options and you pay premium, but the opposite of buying an option is selling an option, and then you have unlimited risk, and that's when Jed puts up the old futures and options has risk disclaimer, right?
23:51
SPEAKER_00: And people need to know that.
23:52
SPEAKER_00: I think people are afraid to come on shows and say, oh, don't talk about the markets.
23:57
SPEAKER_00: Like you can talk about the markets all you want, it's totally legal.
24:01
SPEAKER_00: As long as you're educating people like you are of what the risk is, right?
24:05
SPEAKER_00: And people, people get in their mind that a market can't go below or above a certain price, and and they carry you out of the room.
24:13
SPEAKER_00: There's I don't want to mention the firm, but right under that tweet that Jed posted, there was a firm I've always heard about up in Minnesota, and they're a big proprietary trading firm.
24:24
SPEAKER_00: And the tweet was and it's not a confirmed source, it's just a rumor mill, right?
24:30
SPEAKER_00: XYZ capital incurs a$20 billion loss and blew out of their positions today.
24:35
SPEAKER_00: And that's what creates a market move like this.
24:37
SPEAKER_00: I do want to quote up the markets real quick on the on the stock side, see what they're doing.
24:43
SPEAKER_00: Let's see here.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: Okay, the SP 500 is down 300 points.
24:47
SPEAKER_00: That's a lot for you, home gamers.
24:49
SPEAKER_00: That's 4%.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: The NASDAQ futures are down 1,600 points.
24:53
SPEAKER_00: That's 5.7%.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: Dow Jones hanging in there 51,700.
24:59
SPEAKER_00: And yeah, so your bond market's moving, your crude oil's up 267.
25:03
SPEAKER_00: And it's just what makes the markets move.
25:06
SPEAKER_00: Bonds are it's all correlated.
25:08
SPEAKER_00: You got stocks, you got bonds, you got currencies.
25:11
SPEAKER_00: Then here we are, the low man on the totem pole trading the the commodities.
25:15
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, wheat, when you quote wheat, it was like up a few pennies today.
25:18
SPEAKER_00: Wheat's like looking at the stock market and saying, not my problem, bro, right?
25:21
SPEAKER_00: We're already six dollar wheat.
25:23
SPEAKER_00: But some markets have some room to give up, and that's because the funds, the funds were big longs in a lot of things.
25:29
SPEAKER_00: And Davis, you know, every every one of us in life has gotten tight on money.
25:33
SPEAKER_00: When you get tight on money, what do you do?
25:36
SPEAKER_00: You either tighten the belt or you sell an asset to get a little cash, right?
25:40
SPEAKER_00: That's what they're doing.
25:41
SPEAKER_00: They're rotating.
25:41
SPEAKER_00: Oh my God, I have a margin call here, I got to sell this.
25:45
SPEAKER_00: So when the markets really have a big down day, sometimes the grains actually go up on it, to be honest with you, because people are looking for that.
25:53
SPEAKER_00: I asked Stephen Davis again, I'll quote him.
25:55
SPEAKER_00: He's sitting right down the hall.
25:57
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, why do people invest in commodity funds?
26:00
SPEAKER_00: He's like, for diversification, that that no one in their right mind should just be, hey, I'm an investor, I'm 100% long stocks.
26:08
SPEAKER_00: That's when people throw in a little bit of gold, a little bit of this, a little, they have some bonds.
26:13
SPEAKER_00: And I our good friend is here today in the office, Jared Dillion.
26:17
SPEAKER_00: Remember, you interviewed Jared Dillion.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: Oh, no kidding.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I've got his I've got his book right over there.
26:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
26:22
SPEAKER_00: So Jared Dillion, the awesome portfolio, he's in the office.
26:25
SPEAKER_00: And I need to get him back on.
26:26
SPEAKER_00: Can you talk to him for me?
26:28
SPEAKER_00: Let me run down the hall.
26:30
SPEAKER_00: So Jared Dillion tweeted out earlier in his uh Twitter handles, like I think the Daily Dirt map, very popular on Twitter.
26:38
SPEAKER_00: He just had DirtCon 2026 here in Nashville.
26:41
SPEAKER_00: It was a big hit.
26:42
SPEAKER_00: But Jared said the awesome portfolio is taking today's down move a lot better.
26:47
SPEAKER_00: And what the awesome portfolio is, and I could sell it for him, and the only reason I know this is because Jed and I just did a PowerPoint presentation last week to a group of farmers, and we my whole point of the presentation was grains are meant to be sold, stocks are meant to be bought, and commodities aren't buy and hold, like you don't buy and hold cattle.
27:06
SPEAKER_00: There, there's not a cattle ETF where you're like, I want to be long cattle for the next three years.
27:11
SPEAKER_00: Right.
27:11
SPEAKER_00: But these stocks are so one of the things I wrote in my notes, and now get out of here if you want, but the key is to have some dry powder.
27:18
SPEAKER_00: So if you're if you're Davis Michelson, you're 55 years old, and if you're not 100% in stocks, and you're like, wow, I had some extra cash in the next few days, few hours, few minutes, few months, it it you know, everyone.
27:32
SPEAKER_00: Oh, I missed the SpaceX IPO.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: Guess what?
27:35
SPEAKER_00: You could buy it cheaper in the IPO now.
27:37
SPEAKER_00: Oh, I missed Apple.
27:39
SPEAKER_00: Well, guess what?
27:39
SPEAKER_00: Be patient.
27:40
SPEAKER_00: You so the key to investing, Uncle Warren Buffett style, or to the awesome portfolio is to stay diversified, to not get leverage.
27:51
SPEAKER_00: Remember, Warren Buffett had that partner, Charlie Munger, and he's talked about the three L's leverage, liquor, and something else.
28:00
SPEAKER_00: I can't it was love, isn't the third L love?
28:03
SPEAKER_00: I think it really was, yeah.
28:04
SPEAKER_00: For sure.
28:05
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
28:06
SPEAKER_00: Leverage, liquor, and love will ruin a man and or woman.
28:11
SPEAKER_00: And that's some really solid investing advice.
28:13
SPEAKER_00: But it was just funny that you asked me to come on the show, talk about stocks.
28:16
SPEAKER_00: Jared Dillion's here.
28:18
SPEAKER_00: He's been a guest on your show, The Awesome Portfolio.
28:20
SPEAKER_00: I'm actually going to teach my kids how to execute in their own personal stock account on their own and do the awesome portfolio.
28:28
SPEAKER_00: And it's you don't need much money to do it, it's you execute the trades yourself.
28:33
SPEAKER_00: And I think what his point is with all this technology and AI, you don't need like a manager to manage your portfolio.
28:40
SPEAKER_00: If you do it right, you do it conservative, you can do it yourself.
28:43
SPEAKER_00: Now, there is one trick to it, okay?
28:45
SPEAKER_00: Wanna hear it?
28:46
SPEAKER_00: I absolutely do.
28:47
SPEAKER_00: Everybody get out your pencils, get out your pencils.
28:50
SPEAKER_00: At the end of the year, you need to rebalance your account.
28:52
SPEAKER_00: So let me give you an example.
28:54
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
28:54
SPEAKER_00: He has you long X amount of stocks, X amount of bonds, X amount of metals, and X amount of real estate.
29:00
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
29:01
SPEAKER_00: And at the beginning of the year, whenever you execute a trade, you do 25% of each.
29:06
SPEAKER_00: The trick to stay in discipline with the awesome portfolio is you have to do a rebalance periodically.
29:12
SPEAKER_00: So say you are long 25% stocks and they have a good year.
29:17
SPEAKER_00: You need to take off those stocks and rotate them into the other three, or vice versa.
29:22
SPEAKER_00: And so when you start the new year, you need to be 25, 25, 25, 25 again.
29:28
SPEAKER_00: And you need to balance the portfolio.
29:30
SPEAKER_00: And what happens is people's 401ks is they, well, they typically like I like 401ks.
29:37
SPEAKER_00: I like retirement accounts where you just click the button, you put in your risk profile and let the experts do it.
29:41
SPEAKER_00: I'm fine with that.
29:42
SPEAKER_00: But this is for people who are like, like for our kids, right?
29:45
SPEAKER_00: For your kids or grandkids or whatever.
29:48
SPEAKER_00: Hey, put a little bit of this in and do it this way.
29:51
SPEAKER_00: Because I don't think in 10, 20 years you're gonna be calling your investment advisor.
29:56
SPEAKER_00: You can go set up a Grok account, a chat account, a Claude account, and say, Set up, I'm 50 years old, I'd like to retire when I'm 70.
30:04
SPEAKER_00: Set up a basic retirement plan.
30:05
SPEAKER_00: And in about 15 seconds, it'll do it for you.
30:09
SPEAKER_02: Wow.
30:10
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
30:11
SPEAKER_02: Well, thanks.
30:12
SPEAKER_02: Thanks for all that.
30:15
SPEAKER_02: I want to I want to get a let's get a little granular.
30:19
SPEAKER_02: Can we switch gears?
30:20
SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
30:21
SPEAKER_02: Talk to me about uh, I don't know how closely we're watching December corn.
30:25
SPEAKER_02: I'm watching it simply because there were a lot of folks that were looking at that.
30:29
SPEAKER_02: You probably heard looking at the 440 area today.
30:34
SPEAKER_02: We settled out right at 440.
30:38
SPEAKER_02: Have you got any insights?
30:40
SPEAKER_02: Either what is to be done here or what what does the future hold, Tommy?
30:45
SPEAKER_02: Can we hold 440?
30:47
SPEAKER_02: 440 is a good number.
30:49
SPEAKER_00: I if the stock market absolutely gets smothered today and that SP that's down 300 is down 400, you may see a little volatility overnight.
30:58
SPEAKER_02: Smothered worse than it is now.
30:59
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
31:00
SPEAKER_00: Or okay, smothered getting worse, like not just knocked out, but totally unconscious, and they're taking the stretcher, right?
31:06
SPEAKER_00: Body bags only.
31:07
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
31:07
SPEAKER_00: Then then you could see some weird things in the markets, especially illiquid markets like cattle, hogs.
31:13
SPEAKER_00: Corn's a very, very deep liquid market that trades big size.
31:17
SPEAKER_00: But as far as the function of the markets, the buyers and sellers should be meeting at this price because the funds, you don't have to count on the funds to puke their longs.
31:25
SPEAKER_00: They've already done that.
31:26
SPEAKER_00: They could accumulate a short, not the best time of year necessarily for them to do that with what could happen with um weather in South America, etc.
31:35
SPEAKER_00: So we'll see.
31:36
SPEAKER_00: If I was an end user, if I took my farmer marketing cap off, if I was an end user, this has got to be a place where the ethanol industry is just lopping up corn.
31:46
SPEAKER_00: People who use corn Coca-Cola uses more corn than you could imagine making all that delicious uh soda and stuff.
31:52
SPEAKER_00: I remember when I was a kid in the in the pit, there was a broker who every day like bought 200 corn futures.
31:59
SPEAKER_00: I said, Who are you doing that for?
32:01
SPEAKER_00: Every day at the close you buy 200.
32:02
SPEAKER_00: He's like, It's Coca-Cola.
32:04
SPEAKER_00: Like, that's they're buying corn futures.
32:06
SPEAKER_00: They use that much corn to make corn syrup.
32:08
SPEAKER_00: So, from an end user standpoint, whoo, one would think this is a value level, but could we go lower?
32:13
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
32:14
SPEAKER_00: How much lower and how long we stay there?
32:16
SPEAKER_00: This guy is not gonna go home short corn at 440.
32:19
SPEAKER_00: I'd rather just go the to the sidelines.
32:21
SPEAKER_00: But I felt good when I came into work.
32:23
SPEAKER_00: Corn, beans, wheat were all up on the highs, opened up, hung out there for a few minutes, and then they're like, nah, we're out of here.
32:31
SPEAKER_00: And our very own Jim Wiesemeyer was putting out some stories.
32:34
SPEAKER_00: We got to really watch that relationship with China and other countries because the election's over.
32:39
SPEAKER_00: We know the results, and I don't think the true social posts are gonna scare anyone anymore.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: So if a country needs our grain, they'll come here and buy it, but they're not gonna be intimidated, strong armed, or anything else into buying American grain.
32:53
SPEAKER_00: They definitely will buy it if they need it.
32:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but there is gonna, we're still waiting.
32:57
SPEAKER_00: Remember, I always talk about this in the Jim calls it the Trump etch a sketchboard, but the uh there's always something great gonna happen in three months.
33:07
SPEAKER_00: I think that ship sailed, like hell with it.
33:09
SPEAKER_00: We we are where we are today.
33:11
SPEAKER_00: Don't wait three months.
33:12
SPEAKER_00: These are the prices.
33:13
SPEAKER_00: Now, what happens when we sell off this hard is we create carries in the market.
33:19
SPEAKER_00: So, yes, maybe D scorns 440, but where's March?
33:21
SPEAKER_00: Where's May?
33:22
SPEAKER_00: Where's July?
33:23
SPEAKER_00: So start having target orders up there for this grain you have in a bin, and we could have two really great things happen.
33:29
SPEAKER_00: We could have the market rally and we could have a big basis move here where the cash market improves because harvest pressure is about over, Davis.
33:37
SPEAKER_02: You like to talk to people, don't you?
33:38
SPEAKER_02: You don't mind talking to people about this stuff.
33:40
SPEAKER_00: No, I like it.
33:41
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I ain't scared.
33:42
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but I do.
33:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm licensed.
33:44
SPEAKER_00: Excellent, excellent.
33:46
SPEAKER_02: Let me, I don't, I don't want to spend any time on this whatsoever.
33:51
SPEAKER_02: But I know that you've had quite a bit of contact with the election with a lot of thoughts about the results and what they tell us and what comes next and all this sort of stuff.
34:03
SPEAKER_02: Let me just throw out an idea that I had as I was talking to the dog down here in the Ultimate Man Cave in Kansas City, USA.
34:14
SPEAKER_02: Trump's power structure as it stands now, the president's power structure, suddenly has an expiration date.
34:22
SPEAKER_02: Suddenly there's gonna be all sorts of resistance and whatever form that might take, let's just leave that at that.
34:32
SPEAKER_02: Do the people that you talk to, Wiesmeyer, Haney, do they foresee a Trump who says, Well, I'm not worried about re-election anymore.
34:41
SPEAKER_02: I'm not worried about the midterms, I'm just gonna go crazy and do whatever I want while I still have the the leeway to do that before we hit that expiration date and the new Congress takes over.
34:54
SPEAKER_02: What are the chances things get super zoppity between now and then?
34:57
SPEAKER_02: Oh, that's an interesting question.
34:59
SPEAKER_00: So we had that Jim Weissmeyer and friends roundtable yesterday, and we had Sean Haney, myself, I just moderated Jim, and who's that fine man who Randy Russell.
35:09
SPEAKER_00: Randy Russell, yeah.
35:10
SPEAKER_00: So you you got three guys like that who really understand ag policy and everything.
35:15
SPEAKER_00: And to answer your question, they weren't worried about is the car gonna blow up.
35:20
SPEAKER_00: They were more worried about where the hell are the wheels.
35:22
SPEAKER_00: And when I say the wheels, where's Rubio going?
35:25
SPEAKER_00: Where's this one?
35:26
SPEAKER_00: Who's gonna distance themselves from Trump fast enough?
35:30
SPEAKER_00: And before we went live on air, uh there's speculation that maybe Pete Heggseth will be let go as Secretary of Defense, maybe Mark Rubio's, he's gonna need to win back the love of the Hispanic vote.
35:41
SPEAKER_00: Apparently, people don't like high fuel prices and being told they're going home, right?
35:46
SPEAKER_00: And and when you look at the state of Texas, when you look at what one state of Texas, when you look at the map of Texas, there's an incredible amount of counties that are red, but every county along the border that has a high blue vote went extremely blue, and Texas flipped.
36:04
SPEAKER_00: So you got a guy like Elon Musk leaving California because it's it it's you know it's too blue for him, goes to Texas.
36:12
SPEAKER_00: Texas is blue now.
36:13
SPEAKER_00: Texas is blue.
36:14
SPEAKER_00: That's the big joke on the internet.
36:15
SPEAKER_00: It where's Elon moving to next, right?
36:17
SPEAKER_00: Look at a state like Kentucky.
36:19
SPEAKER_00: We did this special, Jim Wiesemeyer and myself and David Washerman from the Cook Political Report.
36:25
SPEAKER_00: And he said, watch these certain districts in Kentucky.
36:29
SPEAKER_00: These people are pissed.
36:31
SPEAKER_00: They're in the bourbon industry and they are getting decimated with these tariffs, export taxes, everything else.
36:36
SPEAKER_00: Calm, what you want.
36:37
SPEAKER_00: But bottom line, Canadian folks and people all over the world, they were either punished through tariffs or Canadians have bonded strong together and they said, We'll we'll drink Crown Royal instead of a fine Kentucky bourbon.
36:51
SPEAKER_00: Guess what happened?
36:52
SPEAKER_00: We recorded that three weeks ago.
36:54
SPEAKER_00: Those districts in Kentucky flipped blue, and Kentucky tends to be a pretty red state.
36:59
SPEAKER_00: They'll vote maybe a blue governor in, but they're a red state.
37:03
SPEAKER_00: So a lot of states flipped, and not just on a big national level, on a on a very regional, I'm pissed off.
37:10
SPEAKER_00: Right.
37:11
SPEAKER_00: We we make auto parts along the Canadian border, and you guys are killing us, right?
37:15
SPEAKER_00: Not only can we not afford the high gas, we don't even have a job.
37:19
SPEAKER_00: And so the the for every effect, there's an after effect, right?
37:23
SPEAKER_00: And that that really showed in the election.
37:25
SPEAKER_00: But going back to your question, they're not worried about the car, they're worried about the wheels and and and where the parts of the Republican Party are going to go to and and who they're gonna rally.
37:36
SPEAKER_00: The next question you have to ask, Davis, and I know yesterday you didn't want to talk politics.
37:40
SPEAKER_00: I'm totally comfortable talking about it, and I'm not happy nor upset with the election.
37:46
SPEAKER_00: I had one vote, I voted.
37:47
SPEAKER_00: That's it.
37:48
SPEAKER_00: I'm forward, right?
37:49
SPEAKER_00: Yep.
37:50
SPEAKER_00: I will be moving though, I will be moving pretty soon.
37:53
SPEAKER_00: I'll be changing my residence to Tennessee, and there's certain advantages of doing that, not out of anger with Indiana.
37:59
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you were you were gonna do that anyway, though.
38:01
SPEAKER_02: You've been talking about that a while, just to be clear.
38:04
SPEAKER_00: It's nothing against Indiana.
38:05
SPEAKER_00: If I lived in Illinois, you'd be like, I'm getting out of Illinois, but no, I mean it's just a logistics thing.
38:11
SPEAKER_00: But it was really odd to cast a vote in Valparaiso, Indiana, and be like, hey, Gina, I think this last time we're gonna vote in Indiana.
38:19
SPEAKER_00: All right, cool, you know, whatever, move along.
38:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but that's all.
38:22
SPEAKER_00: So the the election was a very interesting move for America.
38:26
SPEAKER_00: The thing you have to be watching is who are the Democrats gonna put up in 2028?
38:31
SPEAKER_00: Who are the Republicans gonna put up?
38:33
SPEAKER_00: Real quick, I know there's some whack nuts out there, and we're in the podcast business ourselves, yeah.
38:38
SPEAKER_00: But uh a lot of the famous, famous podcasters, Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, I mean the who's who of podcasters, they were all at Mar Lago on uh the election night in 2026, and they were all kumbaya.
38:51
SPEAKER_00: And pretty much the only person I know sticking around with Trump right now is Elon Musk.
38:56
SPEAKER_00: And when you ask why the stock market's down so much, there could be some big regulatory actions that come towards AI, data center, and technology.
39:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and that's probably the biggest thing that's happening in the Nasdaq today, is people are uh just so upset about these data centers.
39:14
SPEAKER_00: And if it's not being built in your backyard, maybe it's no big deal.
39:18
SPEAKER_00: But it's what's the alternative?
39:19
SPEAKER_00: Say, hey, we all want to stay happy in America, so we're gonna we're gonna let China, you know, we're gonna farm out our data centers in China.
39:29
SPEAKER_00: So when you see the administration saying we have to gain AI superior, it like just to be the most powerful people in the world in AI, probably in the future what we're doing with AI will be equally as important as how strong we are in the military.
39:44
SPEAKER_00: So we may not fight the war, future wars with missiles and bombs, it may be with compute and actual tokens and everything else that we need the smart guy stuff.
39:55
SPEAKER_02: Shout out to the nerds, then I guess is what you're talking about.
39:58
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's finally their day.
40:00
SPEAKER_02: Finally, it's their day.
40:01
SPEAKER_00: Can I tell you some nerd statistics that I learned recently?
40:04
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that'd be perfect.
40:06
SPEAKER_00: About about set, I had it, I pulled it up on graph, but the stock NVIDIA, it it was a relatively small company 10, 15 years ago.
40:16
SPEAKER_00: People who had nice computers like the computer I'm on has a very the computer you're on has a beautiful NVIDIA mono card.
40:23
SPEAKER_00: But I was telling someone at dinner the other night that almost every single employee at NVIDIA is a millionaire, but like 25% of NVIDIA employees are worth$20 million or more through stock options.
40:38
SPEAKER_00: So yeah, shout out to the nerds.
40:41
SPEAKER_00: We're the wrong business, my friend.
40:43
SPEAKER_00: 60% of all, and I could be off by 5% here or there, but 60% of all NVIDIA employees have an uh stock options of 5 million or more.
40:51
SPEAKER_00: There's some huge wealth created in this memory thing.
40:55
SPEAKER_00: Speaking of memory, I was thinking about buying another laptop today, right?
40:58
SPEAKER_00: Okay, and so I go over to our friends Falcon Computer Trading Computers.com.
41:03
SPEAKER_00: That's where I buy all our computers.
41:04
SPEAKER_00: And the laptop wasn't that much, it was like 1800.
41:07
SPEAKER_00: And then your choice was 16 gigs of memory, this 32 or 64.
41:13
SPEAKER_00: If you go from 16 to 64, it's like$1,100 more for the memory of the laptop.
41:20
SPEAKER_00: Like this is a memory thing going on.
41:22
SPEAKER_00: Crazy.
41:23
SPEAKER_00: Five years ago, they were giving this stuff away.
41:25
SPEAKER_00: Now it's like if you go to CVS to buy a memory card, stuff's locked up in the counter.
41:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
41:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
41:32
SPEAKER_00: For real.
41:32
SPEAKER_00: You got to ask your flip to buy a memory card.
41:35
SPEAKER_00: So yeah, shout out to the nerds one more time.
41:37
SPEAKER_00: One more time.
41:41
SPEAKER_02: Well, let's let's go here, and then I'm gonna cut you loose because I know you're a busy man.
41:46
SPEAKER_02: You don't have time to be farting around here with me.
41:48
SPEAKER_02: Um you're in Grasafi Central there.
41:53
SPEAKER_02: Grasafi Central South, I guess we would call it behind the intrepid trapezoidal microphone of Ag Bull Central.
41:59
SPEAKER_02: The hub of Hullabaloo, you might say.
42:03
SPEAKER_02: What's uh what's the weather out like there as uh they begin to crank up the amplifiers down on the street?
42:09
SPEAKER_00: Gorgeous.
42:10
SPEAKER_00: I have these blackout shades here in the office, but the uh it's just blue skies.
42:15
SPEAKER_00: I work this uh my I caught my bowling shirt to work.
42:18
SPEAKER_00: It the weather in the spring and fall down here is amazing.
42:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's just pure fun.
42:23
SPEAKER_00: Hey, I want to give a shout-out too.
42:24
SPEAKER_00: I was at the uh Nashville Agricultural Club last night.
42:28
SPEAKER_00: They have a group that gets together twice a year, yeah.
42:31
SPEAKER_00: And uh they had a spokesperson from uh one of the largest ethanol companies in America talking about how important Tennessee corn farmers are and how important Kentucky corn farmers are like the boy Neil Denton or anyone else, yeah, yeah.
42:47
SPEAKER_00: It's called like the Nashville Ag Club, and uh yeah, real nice party they had.
42:51
SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's cool.
42:52
SPEAKER_00: They had someone in from California talk about the importance of uh getting to E15 everywhere.
42:58
SPEAKER_02: Oh, I love that.
42:59
SPEAKER_02: We're gonna talk more about that uh tomorrow with uh with my.
43:03
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's gonna be a good one.
43:04
SPEAKER_02: It's gonna be a good one.
43:05
SPEAKER_02: Um well here in KC, back to the weather.
43:09
SPEAKER_02: Um we uh because I gotta I gotta get groceries yet this afternoon.
43:13
SPEAKER_02: I want to get there before the uh before the crowds hit once school is done.
43:17
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we've got it, but it's nice.
43:20
SPEAKER_02: It almost has that sort of crisp chill in the air in the mornings, but not quite.
43:26
SPEAKER_02: It's just not quite crisp enough for me.
43:28
SPEAKER_02: I think it's headed this way.
43:30
SPEAKER_02: But the National Weather Service says temperature-wise, a pair of cold fronts will send cooler than average temperatures southward over portions of the plains in Midwest ahead of this cool air.
43:40
SPEAKER_02: Unseasonably mild weather will prevail east of the Mississippi River for the next day or two.
43:45
SPEAKER_02: Through mid-month, the uh precip outlook will favor the western belt with above normal chances in the western belt there for for precipitation as dryness sets in over the eastern corn belt.
44:00
SPEAKER_02: And Tommy, you know that I like to talk a little nonsense before.
44:03
SPEAKER_00: Real quick before we get to nonsense, can I get to the serious sense?
44:06
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yes, go ahead.
44:09
SPEAKER_00: The the good folks who threw the party were Eco Energy based out of Franklin, Tennessee, and they do watch your show.
44:15
SPEAKER_00: And they were more than welcome to drive from Franklin, which is if there's no traffic 25 minutes, if there's traffic two hours, right?
44:23
SPEAKER_00: But they are a huge, hugely involved in energies, whether it be ethanol, but they're really big into natural gas, and that kind of caught my attention.
44:32
SPEAKER_00: But the good folks from Eco Energy paid for the party yesterday, and they also said they would love to come on the show.
44:37
SPEAKER_02: I was gonna say, did you get a did you get a business card or anything?
44:41
SPEAKER_02: No, no.
44:41
SPEAKER_02: I I know I know one of the high-up guys.
44:43
SPEAKER_02: No, no, I know the guy.
44:46
SPEAKER_02: Eco Energy, reach out to me.
44:47
SPEAKER_02: Shout out to Eco Energy.
44:49
SPEAKER_02: I'll tell you how I met to talk about natural gas.
44:52
SPEAKER_02: Whatever you want to talk about.
44:53
SPEAKER_02: Energies, we need energies, comments.
44:55
SPEAKER_00: I'll tell you how I met uh one of the high ups there.
44:58
SPEAKER_00: His name's Craig, great guy.
45:00
SPEAKER_00: I was flying from North Dakota, Chicago, and I had a Pioneer Seed hat on.
45:04
SPEAKER_00: And he's like, Did you pay for that pioneer seed hat?
45:06
SPEAKER_00: Did you get it for free?
45:07
SPEAKER_00: No, they paid me to speak, so I got paid and got a free hat.
45:11
SPEAKER_00: And you got a hat.
45:12
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they say most things in life aren't free, but uh that one was you're living right.
45:16
SPEAKER_00: Listen, it's hard to find.
45:20
SPEAKER_00: So I'm at O'Hare Airport and he sees my corn hat and he's like, You a farmer?
45:25
SPEAKER_00: And I go, No, because what do you do?
45:27
SPEAKER_00: I go, I trade corn, and he starts dying laughing.
45:29
SPEAKER_00: And he's like, Who are you?
45:31
SPEAKER_00: And I told him who I was.
45:32
SPEAKER_00: And I go, What are you doing going to Nashville?
45:35
SPEAKER_00: And he had worked at ADM for 25 years in charge of their whole biofuels program.
45:41
SPEAKER_00: So you'll like Mr.
45:42
SPEAKER_00: Craig, he's a good dude.
45:43
SPEAKER_00: But we sat by each other in the plane, and then I said, Hey, I'll I'll meet you in Nashville for dinner anytime you want.
45:49
SPEAKER_00: And he's been asking, I'll come on the show, whatever.
45:51
SPEAKER_00: They're they're good dudes, yeah.
45:52
SPEAKER_00: Oh, heck yeah.
45:53
SPEAKER_00: Uh that's not great.
45:54
SPEAKER_00: There's some nice they're they're very you could feel the the the young energy at that company and the uh excitement in what they're doing.
46:02
SPEAKER_00: They're really in they're in a hot spot right now because energy is a lady.
46:05
SPEAKER_02: Let's get a young lady.
46:06
SPEAKER_02: That would be nice, yeah.
46:07
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, sure.
46:08
SPEAKER_02: Sure.
46:09
SPEAKER_02: Spread it around a little bit.
46:11
SPEAKER_02: All right, back to the nonsense.
46:13
SPEAKER_02: Eco Energy, Craig.
46:15
SPEAKER_02: I want I will talk with anyone from that company.
46:18
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, for sure.
46:19
SPEAKER_02: Hit up Tommy, hit up Tommy.
46:20
SPEAKER_02: Uh, it's uh November 5.
46:23
SPEAKER_02: On this day in history, 1639, a long time ago.
46:29
SPEAKER_02: First post office in the uh colonies was set up in Massachusetts with permission from King William and Queen Mary.
46:36
SPEAKER_02: The United States Post Office was created on July 26, 1775, by decree of the Second Continental Congress.
46:44
SPEAKER_02: But the first one actually opened in 1639.
46:47
SPEAKER_02: Uh, it's the uh the birthday of Art Garfunkel.
46:50
SPEAKER_02: Are you a uh big Simon and Garfunkel?
46:52
SPEAKER_00: I think without either of them, but go ahead.
46:57
SPEAKER_02: Okay, fair enough, fair enough.
46:59
SPEAKER_02: Um a big day, great Scott! It was this day that Doc Brown fell and bumped his head, which gave him the idea for the uh flux capacitor in uh Impact of the Future.
47:11
SPEAKER_02: It's also the same day, interesting timeline.
47:14
SPEAKER_02: Like today in 2026 when the clock went ahead?
47:18
SPEAKER_02: Yes, November it was November 5th, 1955.
47:21
SPEAKER_00: Oh, okay.
47:22
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so uh that's when in the first one when Marty traveled back through time and uh ran over the guy's pines and made it the it was no longer the Twin Pines Mall.
47:34
SPEAKER_02: That was November 5.
47:35
SPEAKER_02: Took him a couple days to uh get together, but uh if you notice in the in the picture, he uh he still has the band-aid on his forehead.
47:43
SPEAKER_02: And uh just one more.
47:45
SPEAKER_02: It's uh the birthday of Brian Adams, Canadian singer, songwriter, and guitarist.
47:51
SPEAKER_02: And with that, Tommy, I just wonder if we can if we could play just a little bit of Finish the Lyric.
47:56
SPEAKER_02: I know you love to play Finish the Lyric.
47:58
SPEAKER_02: Are you ready?
47:58
SPEAKER_02: I'm right.
47:59
SPEAKER_02: It goes uh yeah, there we go.
48:01
SPEAKER_02: It goes like this.
48:06
SPEAKER_00: I know this one.
48:16
SPEAKER_00: Well, this is the summer of 69.
48:21
SPEAKER_02: Me and some guys from school had a band, and we tried real hard.
48:25
SPEAKER_02: Jimmy quit.
48:26
SPEAKER_02: Jody got married.
48:27
SPEAKER_02: Should have known that we can you can you finish this one?
48:30
SPEAKER_02: Should have known we'd never get far.
48:35
SPEAKER_02: Oh, that ain't 69 Brian Adams.
48:37
SPEAKER_02: That was uh the soundtrack that summer.
48:41
SPEAKER_02: I think I was 14 and I was detasseling.
48:44
SPEAKER_02: And uh we just we just played Brian Adams on loop before.
48:49
SPEAKER_00: Can I ask you a favor?
48:50
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, in a few months, uh it'll be Gina and I's 25th wedding anniversary, and maybe come on and sing that Bon Jovi song where they say Tommy and Gina.
49:00
SPEAKER_02: Tommy and Gina.
49:01
SPEAKER_02: Tommy used to work on the dock.
49:03
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, uh, Gina works at Diner all day, I think is uh how that goes.
49:08
SPEAKER_00: And maybe you'll play the bugle that day because I know Gina always loves that.
49:11
SPEAKER_02: She loves the bugle.
49:12
SPEAKER_00: She loves the bugle.
49:13
SPEAKER_00: We'll have to do a special treatment.
49:14
SPEAKER_00: We lost one subscriber because of the bugle, but that's fine.
49:16
SPEAKER_00: We picked up.
49:17
SPEAKER_00: You lost a subscriber because of the bugle?
49:19
SPEAKER_00: What are you gonna do?
49:20
SPEAKER_00: You can't make them happy all the time.
49:21
SPEAKER_02: I can try the trombone.
49:22
SPEAKER_02: Would the trombone bring them back?
49:24
SPEAKER_02: Do you reckon?
49:24
SPEAKER_02: We could do that.
49:25
SPEAKER_00: You might lose two with that.
49:27
SPEAKER_02: Double, double uh on on the trombone.
49:30
SPEAKER_02: All right, Tommy Grassofi, I've taken up a lot of your time.
49:33
SPEAKER_02: Thanks for being on.
49:34
SPEAKER_02: Appreciate your expertise, dude.
49:36
SPEAKER_02: Uh, my man is always on call and he's always happy to hop in here.
49:39
SPEAKER_02: And I do appreciate it very, very much.
49:42
SPEAKER_02: Uh, might I direct you to agbol.com.
49:44
SPEAKER_02: You can dig deeper with AgBull Intel, take the markets by the hours with Agbol.
49:50
SPEAKER_02: Agbull.com.
49:51
SPEAKER_02: Check out We Smire, check out our premium side over at Agbol.com.
49:56
SPEAKER_02: Everything you could ever want there, Agbull.com.
49:59
SPEAKER_02: And I think I promised at the very beginning a poem.
50:02
SPEAKER_02: And uh this here's a thinker because it's the I'm not a big poetry guy, but apparently it's also the birthday of poet Ella Wheeler Wilcox, born this day in 1850.
50:13
SPEAKER_02: Here's a poem that just sort of made me think.
50:15
SPEAKER_02: She wrote, Rejoice and men will seek you, grieve, or play the bugle, and they turn and go.
50:23
SPEAKER_02: They want full measure of all your pleasure, but they do not need your woe.
50:28
SPEAKER_02: Be glad, and your friends will be many, be sad, and you lose them all.
50:33
SPEAKER_02: There are none to decline your nectared wine, but alone you must drink life's gall.
50:41
SPEAKER_02: Ah, that makes you think.
50:43
SPEAKER_02: I think the uh the message is don't be a grump, or else no one will like you.
50:47
SPEAKER_02: Ella Wheeler, words of wisdom.
50:49
SPEAKER_02: Egg squawk's back first thing in the morning to get you set up with a taste of that egg bowl intel.
50:53
SPEAKER_02: And then I'll wrap up the week.
50:54
SPEAKER_02: You might remember last Friday we had Carrie Artek on.
50:57
SPEAKER_02: We've got him again tomorrow.
50:58
SPEAKER_02: We're talking retail stocks with Kerry Artek, and then we're finally gonna get to that ethanol conversation with David Brecht tomorrow.
51:05
SPEAKER_02: Come on back tomorrow as we wrap up another week of Ag Squawk.