Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Banks Just told Big Clients to BUY... + Stock Market News 25 April 2024

Transcript

Banks Just told Big Clients to BUY... + Stock Market News 25 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix, here we appear to be live.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to this miserable red day in the market.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: We're pre-market live and look at this, look at this sea of red Microsoft down, google down 4%, amazon down, 3%, meta down, 15.5%.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Right now, even Tesla is falling, despite you know the robots holding it up.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Oracle is down.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Netflix is falling, despite you know the robots holding it up.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Oracle is down, netflix is down, adobe is down, banks are down, visa is down, fat drugs are down, disney is down what a morning to make some money.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: And that's what we're going to do here today.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through what Wall Street's saying.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: They're saying two different things.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: They're saying one thing to the public public and they're doing the opposite internally.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: And I want you to understand what they're doing internally, because that's typically where the money sits.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: So, of course, there's no financial advice, just an old banker talking out of you know the backside of his head or something.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I've also done one other thing for you.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: You guys have been pestering me for a European live trading training, so I shall do one.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I shall do one this Saturday, because apparently you guys have jobs and you can't show up during the middle of the day and your evening is my night.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: So if you want to sign up for the Saturday live trading training this is meant for Brits and Europeans Felix, friends at org slash training go over there.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: If you are in the US, this time zone probably isn't going to work for you, but the rest of you, come and join me there on Saturday and I'll teach you exactly how we make money, and I actually want to put a meta trade on today.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: We might just do that as the market opens.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I'll show you what I've got in mind there, but let's run through some of the stuff here first.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'll show you on Saturday you Brits and Europeans, how we make these returns.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: I'm not promising you the returns, but I'm promising to show you exactly how I do it.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: That's the best I can do.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: It's free of charge, by the way.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Now, these are meta earnings and I've made a full-length meta video on this which is coming out after this.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: But just look at the numbers.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Advertising massive growth.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Payment infrastructure massive growth.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Meta Quest is growing massively.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Revenue up 27%.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Margins up 3%.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Operating profit up 13%.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Net profit up 14%.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Less spending.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: On all fronts, everything looks pretty freaking great.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Why are we hating the poor Zuckerberg who's sitting in one of his bunkers right now crying why does the world hate me?
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Because he said at the outset of this call he used the words CapEx the worst phrase any CEO could ever put in his mouth and essentially they're saying he's investing more capital into ai as in future growth, the market hates him.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Do you remember when he was spending all that money on the metaverse?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: This is what it reminds people of.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: So people are absolutely freaking, hating it.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Stock down 15 and a half percent here pre-market and doesn't seem to be recovering either.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Let's have a quick look at that.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Where is our window?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: So I've got meta pre-market here On a minute chart.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: How does it look?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Doesn't look good.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Does it chart?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: How does it look?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Doesn't look good, does it?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: It was initially good and then it's been a freaking disaster ever since.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So we're trading at $418 right now.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: That's 15.2% down.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: It's literally losing like $80 overnight, which is just kind of bonkers, isn't it Really really bonkers.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: But yeah, just not looking good at all.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: And yesterday we were up here.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: So slight improvement pre-market, but then it's coming down again here on pretty heavy volume.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So we're going to get through that and see what happens with that.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: But we've also got out government data.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: You know the stuff that politicians make up.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: That's what we got out.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So the GDP growth is slowing while jobless claims are apparently lower, which is bad, by the way.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: And lower GDP is probably also bad.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Jobless claims are falling, if you believe that, you believe anything, but that's what the official government data says.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: And the quarter PCE prices are revised up.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: So we have more inflation, slower growth and apparently a tight labor market, and it takes a certain mind to believe that information.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I think the slowing growth, rather, is correct.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: I think the inflation data who knows?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: But let me show you something on jobs data.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Jobs data in the US is like.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: It's like a I don't know, it's just made up.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: It's just simple as that.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: It's just made up.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: It's just like if you joined some sort of cult by somebody who says give me all your money and you live forever.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: The equivalent is the US jobs data and US jobless claims.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Are this green line down here?
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: This is government, official data.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Now, what is also put out is job cut announcements.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Which is this data here?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Job cuts, this is people losing their jobs according to employers, and then we also have in that sort of brownish line.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we are provided with a suitable brownish color at Microsoft, but this line here is worn notices.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: So employers have to basically provide worn notices where they're going to lay off people.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: And you can see that those lines have gone up massively and job cuts have absolutely freaking exploded, while apparently unemployment has just remained completely steady and flat.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, really it's hard to believe that the government believes that we are this freaking stupid.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: But Papa Biden does think you are this stupid and his seasonal injustice.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: And I don't believe the unemployment data in the slightest.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I think the economy is slowing and I think there is significantly more unemployment out there than the government believes will let you believe Probably, like, probably, like 9 million people more unemployed than the government will admit, but that's a whole other story.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So this is part of it and therefore I don't think the market's going to pay a lot of attention, because Wall Street knows the jobs data is bollocks, if I know it, wall Street knows it.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: But let me tell you what I actually want to talk to you about, which is and I'll part note that the market doesn't believe it, the market makers don't believe it.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: They don't, they pretty much ignore it.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: We're freaked out today about meta.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: That's what's freaking us out right now.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: This is interesting.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit complicated, but I think you can handle it.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Can you handle the truth?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs sorry, jp Morgan put this out and essentially what they're saying is that positioning is it high, is it low?
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So the positioning score, which is the blue thing here, has come back down to very low levels.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Well, you have the S&P in orange.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So last time we were at such low levels was here the S&P exploded, or here S&P went up, or here, okay, a little bit late, but then it went up.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: The same story here it went up here.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: And okay, a little bit late, but then it went up.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: The same story here it went up.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: That one was a false positive, but there is some correlation with that and they have a.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: They have, they put this out.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: It's called the tactical positioning monitor.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: It makes the bankers feel kind of manly and powerful in their silk suits and their little gay man vests and essentially what they're saying is if this number down here is greater than 1.5, you have an attractive signal.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So what they're basically saying is that people have pulled back a lot, people have sold a lot.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: People have cut their positions down, which is why we've had the market falling for the last six weeks or whatever, and it's overdone now.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: So they're basically saying internally buy.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: But if you listen to JP Morgan's idiots who are going on onto CNBC, they are saying sell.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Who gets paid for being right?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: The guy on CNBC, the JP Morgan economist, gets paid regardless, doesn't matter what he says, nobody cares.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: And inside banks economists they always have an economist.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: They're just laughing stuff.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Nobody cares.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: This tactical positioning monitor is made by JP Morgan's traders.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Jp Morgan's traders only make money if they make money for the bank.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: So what data do you believe?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: I believe this data rather than the other one, and they're making a comparison to 2010, 2011 here.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: But essentially what they're saying is simply that we hit a high, we've sold off sufficiently, that the indicator is saying we haven't got much lower to go and we would expect to bounce off.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: That's essentially what they're saying.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: So the gap between indicator and the S&P and it's a little small and fuzzy is pretty significant, and when that is the case, you typically get a big juicy bouncy buy signal.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: That's what JP Morgan is saying.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: So they're saying buy the freaking dip right.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: That's what BTF stands for, in case you were wondering about the thumbnail.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: But this morning looks pretty bleak.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: That's okay.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: The two fit together.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Buybacks are kicking back in on Monday or Tuesday.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: That'll be very supportive and Meta is going to buy back more of their shares.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: So I'm overall feeling pretty good on this.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: I'm going to set up a bullish Meta trade when the market opens.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: It's probably somewhere below $400 bullish.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: We'll wait for what the options market looks like when we open, but at the moment the headlines are US GDP growth slows, core inflation accelerates, which is called stagflation.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: It's not a pretty place to be.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: And here personal consumption 2.5% up, pce up 0.3% more than expected, treasury yields rose and the dollar advanced.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at US two-year yields.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: If you have any questions, pop them in the live chat.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: If you are a Brit or a European, you can come and join the live trading session.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: On Saturday I relented.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: You guys have been pestering me for weeks on that one, so that hopefully works for your time, because it's Saturday, you're not going to be working.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the two-year yield is above 5%.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Ouch, we've been flirting with that 5% line for a little while, but she keeps turning us down.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure today will be any different, but, yeah, psychologically important to stay below 5%.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Andreas, when buying leaps, do you apply strict rules?
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Yes, always you need rules.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: You don't have a rule, you'll lose money.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Stuck relation Zooks gets lucky okay, a lot of you guys.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Zook is not the most popular person, right?
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Only 19 likes, 89 likes, but yes, there are about 600 people on the fence of the likes.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: What will the Fed do next week?
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: We'll find out next week, won't we?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Good morning.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Andrea King says I'm Aussie.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: We won't hold it against you.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: He's German.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Of course, he loves rules.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Exactly, I wake up in the morning with a spreadsheet.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Basically, I have to tick boxes, say have you done this yet?
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Have you brushed your teeth?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Yes, have you, you know, taken a shower?
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's of course.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: That's exactly how my life's run.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: No, actually, it's fairly structured.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: It's fairly structured.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Portmanteau sign absolutely.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Microsoft pre-market is below 400.