Latest / The Specific Jawns / Answering Phillies Playoff Questions
Transcript
- Pat Barker: What's up everybody? Welcome back to the specific Johns Podcast, your premier podcast for all things Phillies. ⁓ give us a like and a comment and do all that stuff. ⁓ I'm saying that up top so I don't have to say it again, because we have a lot to talk about this week. And ⁓ just want to get all the housekeeping out of the way. Let's start with the introductions. I'm Pat Barker. That's Mike Sambuco. We are ⁓ Mike, I I wanna I wanna throw to you in one second, but I just Mike Sambuco: Yo yo. Pat Barker: I cannot stress enough how sick to my stomach I am getting with the anticipation of Phillies baseball. I remember a time where leading into October, this time of year was the most exciting. Back in even ⁓ seven when they hadn't made the playoffs, it was fun, it was optimism. We were playing with house money, and now it is just ⁓ despair. Just ⁓ a situation where this is going to ruin my life if I'm lucky for a full month. And ⁓ there's only one outcome that I think people will be satisfied with and it is ⁓ minuscule possibility. ⁓ otherwise I think ⁓ we're all gonna be miserable for a long time. So with that ⁓ little injection of positivity to start the podcast, how are you? Mike Sambuco: Well, ⁓ like you, I I think I'm kinda feeling like I felt at the end of the McNab early two thousands era where you just couldn't get the job. Pat Barker: Yeah. Ooh, that's ⁓ last week on the podcast I compared this run of Philly's teams, ⁓ in a way, ⁓ to the the late aughts Mets team, those ⁓ eight, ⁓ nine, ⁓ seven through ⁓ nine, like the teams that would figure out the most painful way to destroy their fans. ⁓ but man, the early two thousands Eagles might be an even more bleak comparison. ⁓ We don't have to do this. We don't have to be negative on this podcast. And I'm gonna try not to be because where we are sitting right now is a very good place that a lot of teams would love to be in. Let's recap that real quick and then we'll we'll we'll get into this thing. I don't think I need to do what we usually do and go back through every game this week. We've almost reached a point of the season where it doesn't really matter what the details are. We are where we are. As we sit here right now, the Phillies are trailing the Brewers four to one in the seventh inning. ⁓ we are one game behind ⁓ both the Cubs and the Padres in the wild card race. Or no, excuse me, we are we're tied with them. But because of the tiebreaker, pending tonight's outcomes and also, of course, the tiebreaker, we are ⁓ we do not have the tiebreaker over the Cubs. Mike Sambuco: We are all tied up, yeah. Pending tonight's outcomes. fit right in the middle of the three of them. The Cubs have the tiebreaker over both the Padres and the Phillies, and then the Phillies have the tiebreaker over the Padres. Pat Barker: Right. So we are effectively, ⁓ for all intents and purposes, one game behind the Cubs, one game ahead of the Padres. ⁓ and most importantly, our magic number is two to clinch a playoff spot. Any combination for the rest of the year of ⁓ two either Phillies wins or Diamondbacks losses and the Phillies are in. I was hoping they would clinch by the time we recorded, so we could ⁓ at least open the show with the positivity of they're going back to the playoffs. They're in the postseason. Now, you know, I don't want to take the chance of jinxing it. I do feel pretty good. Not so much because I love the the way the Phillies have been playing, but because the Diamondbacks have to play the Padres for three at the end of the end of the year. So I I I like our odds, but I'm gonna hold off on celebrating anything just yet. Mike Sambuco: Yeah, I feel s the same. I mean you you look at what the Phillies have to do the remainder of the the the way in the regular season, they have to win two of their next five games. And that's just if the Diamondbacks win out. I mean th th they the e the Phillies control their destiny and they should get it done. Now, if they had not won yesterday, the Diamondbacks obviously won last night, and Things get a little hairy if you lose tonight's game and then things don't go the way that you you expect with ⁓ regards to Arizona. Arizona's gonna be in a fascinating position if they ⁓ sweep the Rockies this week. I mean they then then they go into a series with ⁓ San Diego and it's they control their destiny potentially. So i it's it's really gonna be a fun end to the regular season. ⁓ hopefully it is not as ⁓ let's just say stressful. As next week would be. Pat Barker: Yeah, I mean I th I yeah. I th if s if this coming week is as stressful as I anticipate next week being, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong. The bottom line is the Phillies are, I believe, a ninety-eight or ninety-nine percent chance to make the postseason right now. Where they end up in that four, five, six, who knows? ⁓ we could sit here and we will discuss who you would like to face in the playoffs, who you want to avoid if at all possible. But the bottom line is I they don't even have control over that because even if they, you know, the only thing they could really control is if they're able to lock up the four spot, A, they secure home field for the wild card series, which I think is very important, and B, they're able to avoid the Atlanta Braves, which I I think is equally important. So if they can get to four, that's huge. Otherwise, I'm gonna be honest and I want to know what you think. Cubs, Padres, Home Road, I kinda don't care. And I'm not convinced it makes a difference. W what do you think about that? Mike Sambuco: Yeah, I I I I definitely would prefer to be the four seed. I think there is a preference, ⁓ or like I can't say an I'm comfortable going on the road at any point in October. That you don't wanna be the team that has to get the last three outs in the bottom of the ninth. You wanna be the team that has those last licks. So do I want to be at home? Yes. has the most recent three let's say six games ⁓ at home in the playoffs in twenty three and games six and seven and in the CS and then games one and two in both twenty four and twenty five. Does that kinda temper my excitement about hosting a little bit, but like I still want it. I'd I'd I'd I'd much rather be at home. Having said that, I think I care more about the opponent. And I'd much rather face the Cubs than the Padres and the Braves. ⁓ it definitely goes in that order. Like I it's it's Cubs like way up here because I feel like the pitching of the Cubs is a staff that we can feast against offensively, where I do not have that confidence facing sale in game one if we go to Atlanta, and even Molly in game two. And then that Padre's Bullpen just frightens me. If they have a lead going into the seventh or eighth, like we're done. Like it's it's we're not getting through against Morhone and ⁓ Millip. Pat Barker: Yeah, I mean let me rephrase the question a little bit, because I agree that I would much rather have home field than not. and i certainly I would rather face the Cubs ⁓ or Padres as opposed to the Braves. I think there's arguments to be made for the Cubs or the Padres. ⁓ frankly, either way. I I'm like you, I would r Cubs are at the top of my list, but it it's it's not by a lot. ⁓ I think the Padres outside of that bullpen have a lot of weaknesses that you know, theoretically we could exploit. Whether or not the Phillies actually could, who who knows? ⁓ let me rephrase. With five games left, it's not a priority for me if I'm the Phillies. Once that you officially have the letter next to your name in the standings that denotes you have clinched a playoff spot. I do not want to start Sanchez and Wheeler and have them go seven or eight to try to win to get a higher seed. If we win those games, great. But my I guess what I'm saying is at this point I would be more focused on how do we put ourselves in the best position for to put the best Phillies team on the field for game one, regardless of who the opponent is. Mike Sambuco: Hundred percent. I th I think there is a need to line up the rotation more than going for the four seed. If that's if that's the question you're asking, which I think it is, like we need to make sure that we're ready for wild card game one, two, and three, ⁓ pitching wise. Because that's our strength. Pat Barker: ⁓ yeah. I mean that's yeah. That's definitely what I'm asking now. ⁓ it's maybe not what I was saying before, but you know, in hearing you talk, I'm like, ⁓ yeah, I guess it does matter. ⁓ it's a little bit cocky to be like, I don't care. Who cares? It doesn't matter who we face. It does matter, ⁓ but to me it doesn't matter as much as just making sure that the the pitching is is lined up for ⁓ the you know, the potential opponent. ⁓ it feels a little bit weird to do a playoff preview episode when they haven't clinched yet, but that's what we're gonna do. ⁓ again and I'm Mike Sambuco: And you can blame Pat if ⁓ it all goes to crap. Pat Barker: Yes, by all means, I will accept that blame. ⁓ and this is this is kind of the deal when you record once a week. Sometimes you ⁓ you put yourself in a foolish position. So if if this goes horribly wrong and they miss the playoffs, feel free to come back on this video and ⁓ tell me how I I ruined everything. But assuming that they're going to make it, let's tackle a few questions here ⁓ as we look forward to next week and the start of the 2026 postseason. ⁓ we already talked. briefly, but I want to touch on it a little bit more about who you wanna play. ⁓ you gave good reasons for the Cubs and the Padres. One reason you left out with the Cubs, and it kind of sucks to have to point to an injury as, you know, fortunate for your team, but Alex Bregman suffered really a brutal injury this past week, taking ⁓ a a foul ball To the face while standing in the on-deck circle, which frankly I can't believe doesn't happen more just based on the proximity. ⁓ and ⁓ he is he is in rough shape right now. I know he he's trying to be ready ⁓ for the start of the playoffs, but ⁓ the pictures I've seen do not look good. So, in addition to by far the weakest pitching staff in the National League playoff picture, ⁓ now arguably their hottest hitter outside of PCA, ⁓ is more than likely, even if he plays, not gonna be at a hundred percent and is gonna be a little bit rusty after missing the last week of the season. So ⁓ that worked that's one in the plus column if you're if you're looking at the Cubs. ⁓ Mike Sambuco: Yeah, and and and you know, it gives you gives you immediate flashbacks to what I believe ended Juan and Carnacion's career. ⁓ similar type of situation where just you know, wrong place at the wrong time ⁓ being in the the undeck circle. And you know, you saw the pictures you mentioned, they are just that that amount of swelling and I believe there were no fractures, but ⁓ just the the ⁓ Pat Barker: Ooh. Mike Sambuco: you don't know how quickly that's gonna heal and you know, vision, what did that get impacted at all? You don't know. you know, Bregman's that kind of like playoff guy that they brought in to kind of put them over the top. And, you know, they were the and still are the number one offense in all of Major League Baseball this year. ⁓ and he's a big part of that. And and if he is even a, you know, 75% of himself that That's a big change in terms of the the the optimism that a Cubs fan might have. So, again, it's it's more out of the pitching side that I I just feel like the the Phillies offense we've seen them struggle against good pitching in recent Octobers and even it's kind of mediocre pitching they've struggled against in recent Octobers, and y you just I I just don't have confidence against the Chris Sale in game one and I mean the Padres don't have the best starting rotation, but they have some decent names in Michael King and and Pavetta and Mys and Pat Barker: Yeah, I can't I can't sit here as a self-respecting Phillies fan and pretend that I'm scared of Nick Pavetta. Even if I should be. ⁓ my bravado will not allow me to be, because in my mind he's always going to be twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen Phillies Nick Povetta. And that's nothing to be ⁓ to be afraid of. But ⁓ couple old friends in that rotation. Walker Bueller, ⁓ could, you know, pop his head up in the playoffs as well. So ⁓ Mike Sambuco: Yes. Pat Barker: But I think we're both in agreement that the team we most want to avoid is Atlanta. ⁓ and you know Part of me and maybe this is just me trying to talk myself into it, right? We do this a lot as sports fans, I think. ⁓ you convince yourself that something is ⁓ good when it is not, because it's the only way you can cope with the reality. And if we have to face the Braves, I will spend a lot of time looking at box scores from the twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three playoffs where the Phillies handled the Braves. Everybody remembers I mean those were some of the best moments in recent Phillies history. Hoskins with the bat spike and Real Meudo with the inside the park home run and ⁓ you know ⁓ at attaboy Harper staring down Arcia. Yeah, I mean those were some of the best ones and y it really looked like the Phillies had the Braves number. ⁓ Mike Sambuco: Harper stare down. Pat Barker: It's been three years since the most recent one. Do you put any stock into that? Will you sell yourself if we end up facing the Braves on the idea that the Phillies just for whatever reason match up really well against it? Mike Sambuco: The thing that I look for in an optimistic sense is that I felt the same way I feel going into this potential wildcard series with Atlanta as I did going into the 2022 and 2023 NLDS where I thought the Braves were gonna steamroll us. And I was surprised then, both years, and obviously things went our way. So maybe there's that there's something about Philly's. Braves in the postseason that just goes our way. Pat Barker: I mean, yeah, I'm I'm willing to suspend my disbelief and ⁓ you know I'm willing to ⁓ lie to myself and convince myself that ⁓ they they can pull this thing off. ⁓ and you know, look, they just played the Braves seven games and they lost four of them. But that's not you know, that's not enough for me to look at and be like, ⁓ well there's no way they could possibly take two out of three from the Braves. I think they I think they could. And again, if I'm talking myself into it, one thing that I I would put in that sort of again, you know, a check mark in the plus column is that would be by far the least rabid environment I think to go into on the road for Mike Sambuco: And they've done it before. This core has done it before. They've s in in you know, both of those NLDSs they split the one game, one game and lost game two in both of those series. So it's it's not like they haven't silenced the crowd before. Pat Barker: Exactly. Exactly. So and you know, Wrigley and even Petco, are are really rabid kind of environments. Mike Sambuco: Those are Pekos a really underrated, you know, environment in the postseason. I I you know, we we obviously won game one and twenty two NLCS there and and got off to a four nothing start in game two and then it all fell apart. You saw that that fan base. We did not want to go back there for game six. Pat Barker: Yeah. No, certainly not. So, I mean, look, it there are pluses and minuses to each potential opponent. I guess we're just gonna have to wait and see. ⁓ I would like to record another episode before the playoffs officially start so we can get all of our cocky takes ⁓ on record ⁓ before they all come crashing down. ⁓ let's talk a little bit about the bullpen. ⁓ I don't want to. It's no fun, but this is the reality of the situation. ⁓ we talked last week about what a nightmare and the week before that, and the week before that probably, about what a nightmare this bullpen is, and things have only gotten worse since then. Orion Kirkering has been optioned to triple A. ⁓ which is, you know, really a last possible step they did not want to take. They had no choice. He has been absolutely unusable. By doing it when they did it, he's not even eligible for the first round of the playoffs. ⁓ this Mike Sambuco: Unless there's an injury, yeah. Pat Barker: Unless there's an injury, but this to me says definitively we really have no plans to use Orion Kirkering going forward this season. ⁓ and you gotta think maybe ever. Mike Sambuco: There's not enough time to reset. It's it's not like you are in the middle of June like you were with Painter. You you can't just give him a month down in the minors for him to come back. It's there is no minor season at this point. Pat Barker: Even if they had done it at the beginning of September. And I know he had the turf toe, so maybe he wasn't you know, he took there was a week where he didn't pitch at all. Like, obviously this is hindsight, but y you know, looking back on it now, it's like, wow, maybe you should have sent him down there, you know, three weeks ago and maybe he could have gotten something figured out. As it stands now, I do not expect to see him in a Phillies uniform again this year. ⁓ maybe ever. ⁓ but that's a topic, you know. Mike Sambuco: Yeah, I think there's gonna be a lot of discourse about is this the last we've seen him in in a Phillies uniform? And i it wouldn't surprise me either way. quite frankly, like I don't see him having a ton of trade value, but maybe there's a change of scenery candidate you can get for him in the off season. Pat Barker: Yeah. ⁓ either way, I mean, just ⁓ two brutal ends to Kirkering's seasons the last couple of years. Of course the error ⁓ against the Dodgers last year and just kind of fading into obscurity this year. And then on top of that, Jonathan Bolin, who had been really been getting bit by the long ball a lot recently and struggling, suffered a a ⁓ groin strain. ⁓ Now, the latest on that is he's day to day. They're not putting him on the I. L. If nothing else, that does open up the possibility of him, you know, pitching in the playoffs. I guess theoretically he could come back ⁓ before the playoffs, but he wasn't throwing great before the injury. Now he's recovering from that. Also on the injury front, Jesus Lazardo is throwing basically every day and ⁓ allegedly pain free. ⁓ But it looks increasingly like he might go to the bullpen as Aaron Nola continues today being an outlier, ⁓ continues to pitch really well. You know, when you when I start hearing Fransky and Larry Anderson talk about it, I'm like, okay, this is more than just a fringe thing that we started kicking around on the podcast a few weeks ago. This is that's that's state run media. You know what I mean? Like if they're saying it, there's a good chance I think it's gonna happen. So where do you stand with the bullpen right now? ⁓ Lozardo potentially in, Kirkering definitely out, Bolin question mark. Talk to me. What do you got? Mike Sambuco: Well, i if Luzardo is healthy enough to pitch one two innings in the wildcard round, he's my second guy behind Durant. Like I I I don't trust anyone as much as I would trust Luzardo. ⁓ McFarlane is is that next like true bullpen piece that I trust. And then after that, it's up in the air. I mean you y you have a couple guys in like Painter, what does his role look like? ⁓ because he would probably start game one of the division series if we use all three starters in the wild card round. ⁓ so y you'd probably get him in one of the wildcard games potentially, but like you don't know what you're getting. He's not pitched out of relief really all year, ⁓ outside of like the one migraine game that he he had an opener for. ⁓ but even that was more of like a a long start, just not starting the game. ⁓ like I I honestly trust Alvarado next out of all of those guys. Like there's he's he's allowed one run in his last 13 appearances. But and and he's had some good postseason moments, some bad postseason moments. So like it's not like he's new to playoff baseball. You kinda know what you're getting. It's gonna be Pat Barker: I know. Mike Sambuco: Awful to get through, but sometimes you win him and sometimes you don't with him. ⁓ like outside of that, like do you trust Meza in a non-like opener spot? Because that's probably what it would be, like a sixth-inning mop-up roll. Like, I don't know what you you get out of him, because he's only really been in low-leverage spots. Bolin's the big question mark of like if he comes back, like, do you trust him? Because he allowed five runs or five ⁓ in five consecutive s ⁓ appearances runs in each of those, ⁓ before he got hurt. Like Pat Barker: My answer's simple, I don't trust any of these motherfuckers. I no. I just I just don't. Now I mean you're gonna have to put some of ⁓ out there. So we're just gonna kinda close our eyes and hope for the best. But outside of Duran, and if Luzardo is even sixty percent of what he was three weeks ago, outside of him and Duran, there's nobody in that bullpen I trust. No, I just don't. Alvarado the the No. Mike Sambuco: Yeah, i I I don't trust Brooks Rayleigh, Tanner Banks, no thank you. Like I I don't know if Shugart or Lazar are gonna make the roster, but like I don't wanna see them. like Pat Barker: No. I might have sugar next on the list. And like, I I hate that. I hate that for the team. It's really bad. And the whole time you were talking about Alvarado, you just you sounded like a woman who just took her her man back after he cheat after he cheated on her for the tenth time, and you're like, Yeah, but he hasn't cheated in the last two weeks, and I think he's really changed, and it's like he's Mike Sambuco: Yeah. Pat Barker: gonna cheat on us in the playoffs again. It's going to happen. And Mike Sambuco: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna comment on on that statement, but ⁓ you you're spot on. Pat Barker: What are you? Look, I'm not I'm not saying this is a situation that any of us have been through or we d we don't even have to know anybody who's been through a situation. Hypothetically though, that seems like the way the way you talked about Alvarado seems like the way a woman would talk about taking a dirtbag guy back. He's a dirtbag. He's a dirtbag and he's not to be trusted. And ⁓ you know, I don't I don't want him on the mound. But not really gonna have a choice unless these starters can go out there and, you know, really get the job done, or you could piece together all the outside ⁓ out of McFarlane, ⁓ Lazardo and Duran in the bullpen. I mean, really that's that's it. Mike Sambuco: Like i if if you're in a situation where you can only get six from a starter, whether that's Wheeler or Sanchez or Nola, like you gotta go with those three. Whether it's one inning each or a combination of like Duran going for a little bit more than three outs, like that you gotta go for the go for it with the guys that you trust the most. Pat Barker: Yeah, which at this point is the I mean, it's not even trust the most, it's the only ones I trust at all. Is is those guys. Now, I I I do like the fact that last night Mattingley had McFarlane do an updown. ⁓ the you know, last week on the podcast it was the last question I posed when we had to, you know, we had thirty seconds left in the recording before my wife killed me for spending too long talking about the Phillies. And I was like, Why can't McFarlane pitch two innings? Anyway, we'll see you guys next week. So I love the fact that they at least Had him pitch an inning and then brought him back. He pitched two batters and then Alvarado got the third out. I I think that's important. I think you're gonna have to get multiple innings out of him in the playoffs in certain scenarios. Mike Sambuco: Absolutely. Yeah, i i there was so much discourse about them not doing the updown prior to the postseason with ⁓ David Robertson last year and then it backfiring on them in game one of the NLDS. But like is one test outing doing an updown the week before the playoffs really that like big of a deal? Like y what if it went poorly? Are you not gonna trust him to do that in the playoffs? Like I I I think it's a little overblown in like how much impact that that type of scenario yesterday should have had for the playoffs. Pat Barker: Mm-hmm. The reason I like it is not that I have any it's not about the results. It's about the fact that they did it at all. Which tells me that they are at least open to the idea in October. And I think it needs to be done. If it had failed, it wouldn't have made me it wouldn't have changed my mind at all. They're still going to need, I believe this. multiple innings from him at some point in the postseason if they're gonna win anything. I don't see the way he could be a one-inning guy. So the fact that they are willing to do it ⁓ tells me that they'll do it again in October. The key difference to me is that Robertson was a 40-year-old relief pitcher who hadn't done an updown in a while. McFarland spent the better part of this year, if I'm not mistaken as a starter in the minor leagues, right? Mike Sambuco: Yeah, absolutely. No, he he was mostly the closer for Reading. Like he he he he got high leverage innings, but ⁓ it I doubt he pitched more than an inning. I I I just wouldn't s wouldn't be surprised if he had. Pat Barker: ⁓ Well there you go. ⁓ huh. That's and that's why you're the prospect guy and that's why I ⁓ I don't know about any of these guys until they come up. I do know that he came up through the system as a starter though. And he's not far removed from that versus David Robertson, who again was a forty year old relief pitcher. So I have more confidence in Mc McFarlane. If he hasn't done him at all this year, then I I apologize. I stand corrected on that. But I still think he is more recently in that kind of world. ⁓ and he has a younger, fresher arm. ⁓ so I just I like the fact that they were willing to do it. It means they're gonna do it in the playoffs and I think they need to do it. So, ⁓ because they can't survive with this it's fine if you have to you gotta fill out a roster. You gotta have Chase Sugar or Max Lazar or Tim Mazer or Brooks or somebody's gotta sit there and, you know, spit sunflower seeds. But just do it in the bullpen, don't do it out on the mound. That's all I ask. ⁓ All right, let's ⁓ let's move on. ⁓ and and let's let's stick with the pitching for a minute and go to the rotation. ⁓ I think we know the guys that are going to be there. We just don't know in what order Zach Wheeler. Shout out to Zach Wheeler, by the way, last night, started the game with seven consecutive strikeouts, ⁓ breaking the Phillies record previously set, of course, by Brandon Duckworth, as we all expected. ⁓ Seven straight trakeouts to start the game, and one of them was the 2000th of his career. He, after a rough stretch, has really been throwing the ball well the last five or six times out. He has looked incredible. ⁓ it's it's almost time. Some I I don't know if you just heard, but one of my electronics just told me it was 606 p.m. ⁓ it's almost time for the playoffs. It's almost time to pick that rotation. Do you know who your rotation would be? Is it dependent on oppon opponent, or do you say, regardless, this is the guy I want getting the ball in game one, game two, game three? Where are you at with the the rotation? Mike Sambuco: Yeah, there's there's no doubt in my mind I want Wheeler game one. And ⁓ I think after that you you likely go Sanchez game two and and Nola would fit in game three. ⁓ my big question mark is like if you're facing the Braves and you have concerns about like if you blow Wheeler in game one against Sale and it doesn't go your way, you're you're you're done for in all likelihood anyway, but like you're really done for if you don't have him going game two or game three. But ⁓ I think what's kind of throwing a wrench into things is the current ⁓ rotation structure. Like you had Nola tonight, currently isn't scheduled to pitch again ⁓ in the regul rest of the regular season, and then you have Sanchez ⁓ coming up this weekend, I believe. ⁓ no, he just pitched on on Sunday, so he would be Friday, right? ⁓ And then I mean, hopefully we don't need Wheeler on Sunday, but like he he theoretically could pitch that last game of the regular season if he's needed to do so, but they obviously are not going to do that if ⁓ he is if they've locked the the the postseason up already. ⁓ I I just I'm curious as like how much timing plays a factor into any of this, but in all likelihood it has to be Wheeler game one. Pat Barker: Yeah, I think Sanchez is actually lined up to pitch Saturday because we had an off day on on Monday. So ⁓ so I I think the last two are scheduled tentatively to be Sanchez Saturday, Wheeler Sunday, and that's why I say you can't pitch those guys and fight for a higher spot and then have them ⁓ in a position where they're unavailable ⁓ for the wild card series. It just doesn't it doesn't make any sense. Because the wild card series go ahead. Mike Sambuco: Mm, that's right. Yeah. So if if Sanchez pitches on Saturday, then that knocks him out until Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, when like he's he's he would have to pitch game three, yeah. So they they really don't wanna have to pitch him s Saturday, I would think. Pat Barker: Till game three. Yeah. Yeah, I don't I don't see where you can. ⁓ and the same with Wheeler. You definitely can't pitch Wheeler. ⁓ Mike Sambuco: Yeah. Yeah, he he definitely wouldn't pitch Sunday unless absolutely needed. Pat Barker: I I I also I you know, I don't think you want to throw bullpen games out there those last two games and like really tax those guys and try to get eighteen innings out of the bullpen two two games in a row. Mike Sambuco: And I think Friday is already slated to be a bullpen game. If if that's how things are lining up. Pat Barker: Yeah. So I they're in a rough spot, ⁓ in terms of how things are are lined up. I I agree, I want Wheeler in game one, which is why I don't think there's any scenario where you see Wheeler pitch again ⁓ in the regular season this year. Sanchez, I could see, at least theoretically, if he comes out and throws fifty pitches on Saturday and it kinda acts as like a bullpen, maybe not even fifty, maybe like twenty five or thirty acts effectively as like a bullpen with like an extended break between starts, then maybe you could still start him in game two. It's technically on three days rest, but I just but I don't see why you would want to get into that position regardless. To me Mike Sambuco: Yeah. I w I wonder if they would consider pitching him on Friday just to keep him on regular rest this week and then that way he could line up for game two. Pat Barker: It's not a not a bad idea. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that I feel like he's kind of running out of gas a little bit anyway. I mean, this guy has thrown a lot, and maybe Paul Skins is getting in my head talking about how throwing two games in the WBC fucked him all up and everything. I I don't know, but I'm just like. You know, Sanchez threw a lot of innings last year into the postseason. He pitched in the WBC. Now, you know, he's like. I I feel like September has been not his strongest. I would rather if there's an opportunity to get him a little bit of rest, and maybe this means you figure out whichever guy is currently in the bullpen that is not going to let's say it's Max Lazar. You're like, you're not gonna be here in October. Maybe you throw him out on Saturday and you're like, We're punting the game, sorry. You just go out there and throw ninety pitches and then we'll option you and replace you with another arm for Sunday that is gonna go out there and punt another game. ⁓ I would rather do that at this point than risk anything by throwing Sanchez more innings than he has to. Mike Sambuco: At this point we need the diamondbacks to lose then, because if you're going into the weekend and you're still at a magic number of two, it you can't play around anymore. Pat Barker: No. No, I for sure. If they if they get to Yeah, if they if they lose tonight, and I haven't checked on the score in a minute, but ⁓ I would assume it's still not going great. Four one, so let's chalk tonight up as a loss, and the Diamondbacks are playing against the Rockies who are terrible. ⁓ Yeah, I mean if the Phillies don't have this thing clinched by Saturday, you gotta win those games. And then you're putting yourself in a really bad position. So it would be nice Mike Sambuco: Still four one going in the bottom nine. Pat Barker: If they ⁓ did not wait until the last second to to kind of wrap this thing up. But ⁓ if they have it mathematically clinched, I don't wanna see Sanchez or Wheeler on the mound. Because I agree with you. You gotta go Wheeler game one. You gotta go ⁓ I I I mean, I guess you could argue you could go Sanchez game three. What difference I mean really what difference does it does it make? Like you gotta win two anyway, right? ⁓ Mike Sambuco: Yeah, I think I think the the thought is you never want to get into the game three that is you know, anything can happen. And you know, I I I'd rather put especially think of it this way, if you're down ⁓ one in the series after a wheeler start and you go to Nola and don't get to a Sanchez start, y it just looks terrible. Pat Barker: It does. It does. Yeah, the optics on that are ⁓ obviously really bad. ⁓ and, you know, in reality it's a situation where you're like, All right, well, if we're gonna have to probably if you lose game one, you're gonna have to start Aranola with the season on the line in game two or game three. So really it's like, you know, pick your poison, ⁓ But I get what you're saying. You you can't make it through that series without a Sanchez start if ⁓ if that option is at all avoidable. ⁓ but we both agree that those are the three guys in whatever order, right? You're not you're not experimenting with Lozardo starting or Painter out there, are you? Mike Sambuco: No, it just doesn't sound like the rotation's gonna be an option for Lazardo in the wild card round. I am curious, like what is it they didn't rule anything out after that, so and and I don't know if that means like he's a potential game one NLDS starter, or if he's truly just they need to take it a little easy and he's in the ro the bullpen for much of October. ⁓ Painter, I I just I I trust Nola more than I would painter. Pat Barker: Well, one thing's for sure, ⁓ the last twenty minutes of hand wringing we just did, all of that can be avoided if the offense just shows up. If the offense gets some big hits at some big times and puts some runs on the board and ⁓ makes it so these guys don't have to feel like their back is against the wall and they have to be perfect at all times, will that happen? I don't know. ⁓ probably not, but we've seen it happen in the playoffs before. Guys get hot at the right time. We've listened Last night was a big win. Brandon Marsh had a big two-run homer that he desperately needed. Bryson Stott had a big game-winning hit that he desperately needed. I it's it's hopium, no doubt about it, but I'm I'm praying. And I'm not the praying type. I haven't prayed for anything. I've had relatives on their deathbed, and I'm like, you're on your own. But when it comes to Brandon Marsh, that's when I call on the big man. We need all the help we can get. But Where would you because that that's all beyond our control? If you're the manager, if you're Don Mattingley, are you playing Brandon Marsh all of the games? Are you trusting him? Are you saying he's my guy? He was an all star this year. He's been cold, but he's gonna get hot. Are you turning to Brian De La Cruz? I said last week on the pod, I would I would play De La Cruz against everybody right now. I would have him as the everyday starter. ⁓ But I think it's more likely that they have Marsh as the everyday starter or they go to a platoon, depending on, you know, the handedness of the pitcher. ⁓ what what do you think? In both ⁓ left and center field, 'cause you got Derek Hill, of course, and ⁓ Justin Crawford, who, by the way, has had a great last month, especially hitting with runners on base. ⁓ where are you at with left and center field? Are those platoon spots for you? Mike Sambuco: Yeah, let's start with Marsh versus BDLC. I think ⁓ what will happen is that they'll go with the standard platoons, with Marsh starting against the right-y and BDLC starting against the lefty. What I think should happen is BDLC potentially starting both games. ⁓ game one against the lefty, if they're against ⁓ at Atlanta facing its sale, is like that's written in stone, that's gonna happen. ⁓ but if he has a good game, I wanna see him there in game two. I wanna ride the hot hand. And while yesterday's great game by Marsh against the Brewers ⁓ gave me a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel, maybe he's about to get out of the funk that he's been in for three to four months. ⁓ I I just I haven't seen anything that gets me excited from Brandon Marsh ⁓ in a very long time. And you know, Brian DeLacruz actually has pretty remarkable reverse splits where he has a nine twenty-four. for OPS against righties. Like I like I kinda wanna ride him in October. And and maybe it's a situation where where you know Marsh comes in against a really tough righty and you you give him a shot there. But who knows? I in terms of center field I love Derek Hill off the bench as an option. And I I I almost like would ha rather have him as that threat off the bench than starting a game against a righty. I'll concede the the s the typical like Crawford starts against a righty, Hill starts against a lefty, and then use Hill at just about any like opportunity I can off the bench. And and maybe that is for maybe that's even for Marsh, like against 'cause Hill's a better ⁓ hitter against lefties than even BDLC is. Pat Barker: I think today is a pretty good indicator of what they're gonna do. The Phillies did officially lose the game four to one, ⁓ by the way. But against a right-handed starter and Logan Henderson, Mattingley went with ⁓ the lefties. He went with Marsh and Crawford, and they both got two plate appearances before he switched. He pulled the trigger early, which is I think what he should be doing. ⁓ but I'm glad you mentioned the reverse splits because this is what ⁓ you know, I I saw last week is And this is it's exclusive to this year, but even historically throughout his career, ⁓ De La Cruz is no worse against righties than he is against lefties. At worst, there's no real split difference. We know Brandon Marsh historically has been awful against lefties. He had three good months against lefties. He is not the same player right now that he was the first three months of the season. I would put Brian DeLacruz out there. He would be my starter. regardless of who's on the mound for the rest of the playoffs. and furthermore, if you get to a si because I would also I would start Derek Hill against lefties. And if you get to a position, by the way, where all right, let's say De La Cruz is batting sixth and his spot comes up in the order and now they bring in a righty, I'm not straight pinch hitting with Marsh. That's where I'm going with Crawford. High leverage spot, Crawford coming off the bench against a righty. We don't have to go straight one for one. Hit for the left fielder with the left fielder, hit for the center fielder with the center fielder. Marsh is my fourth option out of those four guys right now. and it's just about riding whoever is the hot hand. And all of those guys, ⁓ Give me more confidence right now than Brandon Marsh does. I I I can't think of a scenario where I would really want to use him. Now, the beautiful thing about these last four days, somebody could still get hot. I reserve the right to change my opinion if Brandon Marsh comes out and has four, you know, killer games to close the season. But right now, right now, I don't want him in the batter's box. I'd rather have him on the bench. Mike Sambuco: Yeah, I mean it's been well documented his struggles in the second half. I mean he's had two full months of in in July and September where his OPS has been in the fours. That's just just to say the least. ⁓ w which is why last night gave you like that glimmer of hope. It's like, ⁓ my god, he's about to get out of it and get in one of his like first half like surges. so like y you you you've seen the highs with him and you've seen the lows. And you were unfortunately in the middle of his worst low probably of his of his career. and and I agree with you, I think you have to just ride the hot hand. And there's no time for loyalty in October when it comes to winning games. You just gotta play the players that are gonna give you the best chance to win. Pat Barker: Yeah, because you know, we're talking a lot about the wildcard round, but I think we all would love for this team to make a real run. And in order to do that, you're gonna have to deal with the sales, the Mizarowski, the Yamamoto's, the Scoobels, the the Snells, the you know what I mean? It's just a nonstop gauntlet in the National League right now of A-level pitchers, and you cannot be sending Brandon Marsh up there because he had a couple of big hits for you in twenty twenty two. You just you can't do it. He's had a long time to prove himself and like he's not the guy right now. Sorry. ⁓ it'll give him more time to wash his hair in the dugout, I guess. You know, everybody wins. I I know that sounds shit, but I'm just like I'm so frustrated with and I know Bohm has been hot for the last couple months, which I am excited about. Good for him. I really hope Stodd can turn it around, but those three guys just represent an era of Philly's baseball that is like really an underachiever, kind of a scarlet letter. Mike Sambuco: Just inconsistency at its at its peak. All three of them. Pat Barker: Yeah. Yeah, exactly. ⁓ let let's close with this one right here, 'cause this was an interesting question you posed ⁓ in a text message, and I've thought a lot about this, but I I didn't get your thoughts on this, and I know where I stand right now. Aaron Nola went out tonight, six innings, four runs, one of his worst starts in a while. ⁓ not terrible, ⁓ but You know, certainly more in line with the Nola of the first half than the Nola we've seen over the last ⁓ you know, couple months. But there was an interesting ⁓ difference, ⁓ not only in his performance, but in his battery mate tonight. JT Real Muto got the start behind the plate. ⁓ Nola has been throwing pretty much exclusively to Garrett Stubbs, ⁓ for the last however many starts, and ⁓ they've been markedly better than when he was pitching to Real Mudo. Obviously in the playoffs, you know, managers tend to revert to their air quotes best players. ⁓ let me ask you this. Aranola on the mound, game three, wildcard series, season on the line. Who are you penciling in behind the plate? Mike Sambuco: I I think you have to go with Stubbs for the viewpoint of Nola's start is more important than the two to three at bats that JT potentially would get. And and I say that knowing that if it goes poorly either way, it's gonna be second guest. But a 2.8 to ERA this year with Stubbs as the catcher, whereas JT is more than two runs. over that for Nola. And you you I mean theoretically you could as soon as you pull Nola put JT back in there. Like I like it it's it's a no brainer to me. There has been a clear difference in Nola's performance dependent on who the catcher is. And I know he had the good outing in Iowa with JT as the battery mate, but l tonight was kind of the example of like the test before the postseason, like will this work with JT? And I it I don't think it passed. I really don't. Pat Barker: No, I'm with you. And I had arrived at that conclusion before tonight's game. ⁓ and I really thought frankly they would start him with Stubbs tonight. I was kinda surprised to see JT in there. And you know, I think it's frankly a pretty easy conclusion to reach. Because you're talking about like, ⁓ yeah, you know, obviously the advantage that they get you know, from a pitching perspective outweighs what they'll lose offensively. I'm not even convinced they're losing a lot offensively. I know Garrett Stubbs isn't gonna give you anything, but JT is hitting two ⁓ nine this year. He's got a six twenty-two OPS. And I like JT. I'm There are certain guys that I have irrational dislike of, and there are certain guys that I put on a pedestal and I probably give them more credit than they are due. And JT to me is one of those guys. I was talking about earlier in the year when we were trying to find a cleanup hitter. I was like, you know, he I like him better than any of the other right-handed options. Better than Bohm. Better than, you know, whatever. And clearly I was wrong. What I'm saying is I'm putting this out there to say this is a guy that I irrationally am ⁓ a fan of and support more than he even deserves. But even me in this case, you're not the any offensive gain you would get is is not going to outweigh the the chemistry that those guys clearly have. This is the first time we've seen Nola look comfortable in the last two years. You have to put him in the best position to win. And that is with Garrett Stubbs. And I know that's a that's a big hit for a guy like JT, who is You know, ⁓ several times, all star, silver slugger, gold bl I I get it. But you're not leaving Mike Piazza's offense on the bench, you know what I mean? Like this is a guy who is not hitting to begin with. So, ⁓ to me it's a no brainer. Gotta go Stubbs back there. Mike Sambuco: I I agree. Now, I I do think JT is the type of player that you know he excels in the in the playoffs more than I I think he's a better postseason hitter than career wise than he is in the regular season. Like I trust him more than I trust a lot of other people in our lineup, despite the fact that he's had a brutal regular season this year. I d I just think he he like as soon as as soon as Noel's out of there, you gotta put JT in. And and and I don't think they would necessarily take I don't know if they would take that risk, but I think they should. You always run the risk of, you know, an injury to your catcher and then who's catching if you pull your your starter out. But ⁓ I I just think you gotta go it's so much more important to have your starting pitcher go deep in the game, hold them to one or two runs, in Nola's case, like he had been doing that with Stubbs for the last two to three months. Pat Barker: And not to mention, not for nothing, you bat Stubbs ninth. The way this team is hitting, his his spot's not even gonna come up for a second at bat until the sixth inning. So you're gonna miss maybe one JT plate appearance. You're gonna miss one, maybe two. Okay, two is he's not you know, i he is a playoff performer and I get it. Now you also have a good bat off the bench. Let's say you're facing a righty in that game and you start at Brandon Marsh and they bring in a tough lefty, you could pinch hit with with JT. You know? or you could just hit him for stubs, whatever. But the the bottom line is, yeah, it's ⁓ to me it's a really easy answer right now. You gotta have stubs in there. ⁓ because if Nola isn't gonna be able to get you five or six strong, you're cooked regardless. It doesn't matter because we already talked about how the bullpen doesn't have the pieces. So Mike Sambuco: Yeah, and the you know, the other thing that I don't think we had the opportunity to take advantage of last ⁓ postseason, that we did miss out on potentially in game two was because Marchand was the backup, we didn't have Stubbs off the bench as a pinch runner. And I think they will end up using Stubbs as a pinch runner at some point in the postseason. It's just a matter of i you know, finding the right situation. And, you know Starting him obviously takes that out of the equation because you're trying to put JT in for him. So I think there's there's a lot of complicated like maneuvering that they can explain away if they end up going JT as the starter and like saying we needed to save him for this reason and this reason, but I don't think it's the right move. Pat Barker: Yeah. The same way you talked about how it's a bad look if you lose in two games without Christopher Sanchez starting, which I agree with. I think it's a terrible look if Nola goes out there and gets hit around with JT and you go, Well, we couldn't do stubs because we might need to pinch run later. You know. I I would love for them to be in a position where they need a pinch runner late in the game, but Mike Sambuco: Exactly. Pat Barker: With Aaron Nolo on the mound, I think the only way you even get to that situation is with ⁓ with Stubbs behind the plate. ⁓ what did I miss? Is there anything else we want to talk about before we get out of here? Anything else as we prep for the playoffs? Mike Sambuco: No, I just hope they can wrap it up before Saturday and give ⁓ Sanchez and Wheeler a rest. Pat Barker: That would be nice. ⁓ quick updates before we get out of here. The Marlins lead the Cubs two to nothing in the six, although the Cubs do have the bases loaded and one out. The Diamondbacks are already up four to one on the Rockies. I don't think the Diamondbacks are gonna give us a lot of help. Frankly, I think our best bet at this point might be to just root for the Dodgers to sweep the Padres. ⁓ because, you know, that that is another avenue we could take. The bottom line is all these guys, Cubs, Padres, Diamondbacks. I will take losses from any of them right now. The Diamondbacks are probably the most beneficial in terms of clinching that wild card spot before Saturday. But feel free, Cubs, Padres, if you're listening to this, feel free to lose as well. That helps us too. So ⁓ hopefully next time we get back here, ⁓ and we talk about ⁓ you know, the the first round playoff, we know who the opponent is and we can ⁓ we can break it down a little bit more. ⁓ And hopefully it's not a post mortem on the Phillies epic September collapse. Yeah. Yeah. ⁓ until next time, I'm Pat Barker. That's Mike Sambuco. We are the specific Johns. We'll see you guys next week with another podcast about the Phills. Go Phills. Mike Sambuco: Let's open it.