Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 54 - 6/12/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 54 - 6/12/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 54 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone, Happy
0:35
Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
0:37
week and we got the return of the NBA Finals here for tonight.
0:41
Guys, I have a play on this game, game three, of course,
0:44
Celtics up two O now going to Dallas for game three and a very
0:48
interesting bet split. I've been monitoring this bet
0:50
split in this line move for a couple days and I said this is
0:54
right up our alley in terms of a sharp contrarian reverse line
0:57
moving to fade the trendy dog spot.
0:58
So stay tuned for my play. Best bet here for Celtics and
1:02
Dallas Mavs game 3 and then we're going to get right back to
1:05
the diamond A4 pack of sweats here in Major League Baseball,
1:08
including couple really short numbers here.
1:10
One dog to fave line move, one game that's pretty much out of
1:13
pick em as well as a couple favorites here.
1:16
So we'll see if we can eke out a winning day as we continue to
1:19
grind through our week. My first week by the way, back
1:22
from Africa and you know what I'm starting to get like
1:24
flashbacks like dreams at night that I'm still in the Bush.
1:28
No, sadly, I'm back in America. But hey, I'm doing what I love
1:31
covering the sports betting market.
1:32
So it ain't that bad, even though I do miss the sound of
1:35
the truck when you're out there in the Bush, kind of the the
1:38
rumbling, searching for lions and rhinos and elephants.
1:41
Nothing beats it. But hey, let's get back and
1:44
continue to grind in the sports betting arena.
1:46
Anyway, looking back to her last night, guys, a winning night, 3
1:49
and 2 + 0.65 units, and I would argue it should have been a four
1:53
and one night. I had a couple great winners
1:55
there, one with the Baltimore Orioles.
1:57
The Orioles continue to get it done as a dog.
2:00
The Orioles just basically an auto bet.
2:02
I tweeted this out for my Twitter account after the game
2:05
at Josh under score Insights. But the Orioles are just awesome
2:08
when it comes to getting plus money.
2:10
They're now about 57 percent, 26% ROI when they're getting
2:15
plus money. So they came through last night
2:16
for us. Also had a very nice under in
2:20
the Saint Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates game under 7
2:23
1/2. That was a nothing, nothing game
2:25
going into the 9th inning. So my only concern there was,
2:28
you know, don't tie it up, go to extras and blow it, blow it for
2:31
us and extras. But luckily eked out a winner
2:33
there with the under 7 1/2. The one that I loved was the
2:36
Padres because the Padres were down early, came back, took a
2:40
lead, coughed up the lead and then bottom of the ninth, Kyle
2:43
Higashioka hit a walk off bomb to win the game for us, for the
2:48
the Padres there. Remember interleague favorite
2:50
off a off a win home interleague fave off a win system match.
2:54
And I even saw Wiesen, who I continue to write the sharp
2:57
report for, had a nice little tweet because if you watch that
3:00
walk off Homer, the basically the banner behind home plate
3:03
where they, you know, promote whatever you you're promoting,
3:06
had a promotion for circa. So it said circa stadium swim.
3:10
And that was the last thing you saw before Higashioka hit the
3:12
walk off bomb. So great win there with the
3:14
pods. Now the losers, the Mets, they
3:16
blew up for us. They had a a 2 to one lead at
3:19
one point, gave up a bad error and a couple unarned runs to
3:22
lose that one. But the one was frustrating.
3:24
Which again, I'll never complain about a winning night 3 and 2 +
3:28
0.65 units cause the whole point of sports betting is just have
3:31
as many winning nights as he can, limit your losing nights,
3:33
have as many winning nights as he can.
3:35
But the Mystics in the dream we had over 156 1/2 had a
3:40
projection there from rhythm out of 159.
3:43
And you know where that game landed?
3:44
It landed on 155. So they're a bunch of missed
3:48
free throws. They're late.
3:49
It's always tough when you when you lose by a point and a half.
3:52
But we were right on that finger on the pulse of that one just
3:54
came up one bucket short and I'm going back to those missed free
3:57
throws. But anyway, guys winning night.
3:59
Let's see if we can keep it rolling here into a big
4:01
Wednesday. So to start off the pod here for
4:04
today, I want to start off with some NBA Finals because I have
4:08
kind of been, you know, not totally dialed into the NBA
4:10
Finals. I was in Africa for much of
4:12
them. But I do remember when I looked
4:14
at my e-mail when I got home that Bill AD my guy Visa and he
4:18
shouted me out in the newsletter.
4:19
He said game one. It was a fade the trendy dog
4:21
scenario where the public was all over the points in Dallas,
4:25
yet the Celtics were contrarian play laying the points and end
4:27
up blowing out the Dallas Mavericks and winning the game.
4:30
So why do I mention that? Well, because tonight it looks
4:33
like a very similar situation, but not in favor of the Celtics
4:36
against the Celtics. That's right, I'm a Celts fan.
4:39
Yeah, the Celtics are the balls, but I'm going against the
4:42
Celtics tonight because this is a play right up my alley.
4:44
Everything I have known to and known to come and and trust and
4:48
love as a data-driven sports better it matches tonight with
4:52
the Dallas Mavericks. So a little background going to
4:54
the series again, if you want a little updates.
4:56
I know there's been a 2 day layoff here.
4:58
Celtics are up two O Celtics won that first game, one O 7 to 89.
5:02
They won the second game one O 5 to 98.
5:05
I believe. Both of those totals sailed
5:07
under pretty easily last game. I think, though the Celtics did
5:10
not cover it. I want to say the six and a half
5:12
of the seven depending on what number you got.
5:14
That was kind of a a make or break depending on the price
5:17
that you got. But anyway, now the series
5:19
shifts to Dallas for game three. And the biggest thing, or let me
5:23
mention this, the series price, Celtics are now -800 to win the
5:26
series. Remember, they opened around
5:28
-200 -, 225 Dallas, if you think they can come back and win this
5:32
thing, plus 550 at DraftKings. But for tonight, this one is
5:36
very interesting for a couple reasons #1 is that the Celtics
5:40
are a dog tonight. Again, the Dallas Mavericks are
5:42
favored. This is a bit of a surprise
5:44
because obviously if you've watched the first two games,
5:46
Celtics, you know, blowout winner in the first one, even
5:49
though the score is pretty close, pretty comfortable winner
5:51
there. Once they turned it on in the
5:52
second-half in game two. So now you're saying, how on
5:55
earth can the Celtics be getting points?
5:58
Are the odds makers crazy? If the odds makers are giving me
6:01
the Boston Celtics and the points, I will take that all
6:03
day, right? That's the public saying.
6:05
However, one of the early things you learn when you're betting on
6:07
sports or if you learn it eventually, the quicker you
6:09
learn it, the better off you'll be, is that if it looks fishy,
6:12
doesn't make any sense, looks too good to be true, Typically
6:15
it is. So my alarm bells really got
6:18
raised knowing that right off the bat, The Mavericks open as a
6:20
favorite. They open as a one point
6:22
favorite. But not only are The Mavericks
6:25
in a contrarian spot tonight, but the line's moving further
6:28
toward Dallas. Dallas opened at -1 Dallas is
6:31
now up to -2 1/2 even -3 at some shops.
6:35
So this line is moving toward Dallas.
6:36
Now. Partly, you got to consider
6:39
Kristops Porzingis, who again got hurt.
6:41
Once again, I can't even read to you the description of his
6:45
injury because it's a bunch of words I had never heard of
6:47
before, some medical terms. I didn't even know that these
6:50
were, you know, tendons and and ligaments in your body.
6:53
It was all new to me. But anyway, Porzingis, they're
6:55
saying he's day-to-day. I would be surprised if he
6:58
played. I assume that he's not playing.
7:01
He did have a quote like you'll have to pull me off the court.
7:03
I'll die out there for my teammates.
7:04
That's what you want to hear, obviously from a competitor.
7:06
But anyway, I'd be surprised if Porzingis played.
7:08
If he does play, how effective will he be?
7:10
If he does play, does he re aggravate it?
7:12
I mean, Porzingis guy's incredible, but he's like Chris
7:16
Sale from my Red Sox, tall, skinny and constantly injured.
7:19
So Porzingis is a question mark. Maybe that's why we're seeing
7:22
this line move toward the Dallas Mavericks.
7:24
But this looks like just a sharp play toward Dallas because one
7:27
thing that jumped out to me, aside from the opener of Dallas
7:29
being favored and becoming more of a favorite, are these bet
7:33
splits. These bet splits are
7:34
unbelievable in favor of Dallas. Tonight, the Dallas Mavericks
7:37
are only getting 48% of spread bets.
7:40
So I I made it seem like it was probably a little bit more
7:42
public here, like it's pretty much 5050, but 48% of bets are
7:46
going with the Dallas Mavericks. But it's the handle discrepancy
7:50
that jumped out to me. Dallas is only getting 48% of
7:52
spread bets but 82% of spread dollars.
7:56
That is a huge low bets, higher dollars bet split.
8:00
When I'm using bet splits, really what I'm looking for is
8:02
ideally A-Team or a side that is getting less than half the
8:05
tickets, trying to be contrarian, bet against the
8:07
public and then getting more than half the money or at least
8:09
10% more money or handle as opposed to bets.
8:13
So the fact that Dallas is only getting 48% bets but 82% money
8:18
and the line is moving toward Dallas.
8:20
I mean, I'm a Celtics fan, but cover up the names of the teams.
8:22
No matter what, we and again, you got to keep your allegiances
8:25
at the door. You can never bet based on your
8:27
fandom. You got to bet based on the data
8:29
with your head and not your heart.
8:30
This is really screaming to us that the Dallas Mavericks are
8:32
the sharp play tonight. Now you guys might know this or
8:36
may not, but I'm not a big fan of laying short spreads on
8:39
favorites. I like to money line short
8:41
favorites because if the Dallas Mavericks win by one or two,
8:45
you're going to lose it. If you lay the 2 1/2 or three.
8:47
If the Dallas Mavericks just win the game though, you win your
8:50
bet. So I'm going to go money line
8:52
here with the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas Mavericks currently on
8:54
the money line are around -140 -, 145.
8:57
I shopped around. I found that -140 but I'm going
9:00
to go -140 with Dallas to win the game, just on the off chance
9:03
that they again win by one or two.
9:05
I want to win my bet, not lose my bet.
9:07
But also the bet split for the money line is very, you know,
9:11
very positive here in favor of Dallas because the Dallas
9:14
Mavericks are only getting 42% of money line bets, but 60% of
9:18
money line dollars. So when I'm a data-driven, as a
9:21
data-driven better, what I'm looking at is low bets, higher
9:23
dollars, contrarian, sharp action, sharp line move, and
9:27
system matches. We have it all here for the
9:29
Dallas Mavericks. The other angle here, betting
9:31
system matches #1 if you'll get favorites off a loss straight up
9:36
in the postseason this year, they're 19 and 1066%.
9:40
If you look at playoff home favorites, 46 and 25, straight
9:44
up 65%. Those are both pretty good
9:46
numbers there. You're basically winning 2/3 of
9:48
the time if you're a favorite off a loss or a home favorite.
9:51
Now in particular, if you look at the NBA Finals as a home
9:54
favorite since 2016, pretty good sample size here at this point,
9:58
8 year sample, those teams, NBA Finals home favorites are 18 and
10:03
10 straight up 64%. So the line open Dallas as a
10:06
favorite. It's gone further toward Dallas.
10:09
They have a great bet split, low bets, higher dollars.
10:11
They have a bunch of system matches here in terms of
10:14
favorites off a loss, playoff home favorites, NBA Finals home
10:17
favorites. Add it all up here guys.
10:19
I fully admit I'm a Celtics fan, but tonight I'm a Mavericks fan.
10:23
I got to stay true to the data and I got to go with the sharp
10:25
reverse line move. I'm fading the trendy dogs
10:28
Celtics. I'm going with the sharp move on
10:29
Dallas. Give me the Dallas Mavericks to
10:31
win this game tonight I got Dallas at -140 Now over to Major
10:37
League Baseball because we have a full day of sweats here, both
10:40
day sweats and night sweats. I'm I got a couple day games
10:43
here that I'll be sweating, but now let's look towards some
10:45
games here for tonight. So first on the board that
10:48
caught my eye, I'm going to call it an ain't broke don't fix it
10:50
play because I love sweat sweating this team and if they
10:54
have a sharp line move in a system match or two, I'm going
10:56
to play them every time. I'm talking about the OS baby,
10:59
show me your O face. Let's go, Orioles.
11:01
Orioles came through last night. I'm going right back to the well
11:04
here for tonight. So remember last night Orioles
11:07
had a big win 4 nothing cashing last night as a little bit of a
11:11
+ 110 + 115 even some shops plus 120 dog.
11:15
But for tonight, couple pictures that you've never heard of.
11:18
So Atlanta Braves who are now 35 and 29, they're going to go with
11:21
Spency, Spencer Schwellenbach. Oh, and two 8.38 ERA.
11:27
The Orioles who are 44 and 22, they're going with Cade Povich.
11:31
No question, no, no answer whether he's Maury Povich's son
11:35
or not. But anyway, he's oh, and 110.13
11:37
ERA. So a bunch of young pitchers
11:39
here you never heard of with high ERA.
11:40
But anyway, this line opened in favor of Baltimore, listed
11:44
around a -, 115 home favorite. Now Baltimore is up to around
11:47
-120 -, 125. Some shops even closer to -130.
11:52
So as soon as this line dropped with a couple pictures you never
11:55
heard of, all movement liability has been toward Baltimore.
11:58
Now the OS are getting roughly 80% of money line bets in
12:01
dollars. So what we call a pro and Joe
12:03
bet split both public and sharp support.
12:05
In addition to that line move in favor of Baltimore.
12:08
Once again, I'm going to bank on the Orioles offense.
12:10
They're hitting 249. They've hit 105 homers, 340 runs
12:14
scored. Braves.
12:15
Meanwhile, Lacuna is hurt. They've had a bunch of injuries.
12:18
They're hitting 24365 homers, 279 runs scored.
12:22
Also good system match that I love home interleague favorites
12:25
off a win. Orioles would match here.
12:26
They're 53 and 3362% with a 4% ROI.
12:31
This year we have seen this total dip.
12:33
Some shops were nine down to 8 1/2.
12:36
And why is that notable? Because if you see the total
12:37
fall at least 1/2 run, that's good correlative betting and a
12:40
good sign. Opposite of a red flag.
12:43
A good flag, a green flag as Matthew McConaughey would say,
12:46
yeah, green, green flags or what do you say?
12:47
Green lights, green lights. You got to go, man.
12:49
But anyway, that is a good sign because when total falls, at
12:53
least 1/2 run favorites are winning 60% of the time with a
12:56
2% ROI. Home Rd. splits Atlanta 16 and
12:59
17 on the road. Baltimore one of the better home
13:02
teams in baseball. 22 and 12 at home last 10 games.
13:06
Orioles seven and three. They're hitting 265.
13:09
They have a 1.84 team ERA. Braves are four and six over the
13:12
last 10, hitting only two O 7 with a 4.98 ERA.
13:16
So if you're giving me an Orioles team with a little bit
13:18
of line movement, a good system match and a relatively short,
13:21
you know, modest chalk price, you're at home.
13:23
I got to take that every time I'm on Baltimore, guys, shop
13:26
round. I got Baltimore around -120 keep
13:30
on cruising. Next one up for you.
13:31
This is a game we're going to go to at in the Trop, Chicago
13:35
Cubbies and the Tampa Bay Rays. Now last night you saw Tampa Bay
13:39
post A5 to two win. They're on a -, 135 favorite
13:42
able to cash that one. But for tonight, I'm going to go
13:45
the other way. I'm going to look for the
13:46
Chicago Cubs to bounce back a little bit.
13:48
First off, pitching match up tonight, Javier Assad going for
13:51
the Cubbies. He is four and two of the 2.74
13:54
ERA. He'll be opposed by Aaron
13:56
Cavalli, fellow righty two and five, 5.51 ERA.
13:59
But this game to me is all about the line move and the bet split
14:03
because if you look at this line movement, it's all toward
14:05
Chicago. This game open Tampa Bay around
14:07
a -, 120 -, 125 home favorite. Now Tampa Bay is basically -110
14:14
you know -105 -, 110. This is basically a pick em
14:16
game. So this opened Chicago Cubs as a
14:19
dog getting as high as plus 115 + 110.
14:23
Now it's a pick em game. So that would match a dog to
14:26
pick em game. Telling us that, hey, probably
14:29
when this thing opened, Wiseguy said, you know, hey, this line's
14:31
a little too high for Tampa. It's a little too much, you
14:34
know, plus money payout for Chicago.
14:36
Let's hit Chicago 'cause this line to move toward the Cubs.
14:39
So again, you went from a dog and I'll pick them lines really
14:42
tanking away from Tampa toward the Cubbies.
14:45
I'm going to bet against Aaron Cavalli.
14:46
He's O and six or Tampa Bay is O and six and his last six starts.
14:51
I also really like this bet split in favor of the Cubbies.
14:53
They're only getting 59% of bets but 80% of dollars.
14:57
So that's a good bets. With their slight public support
14:59
but heavy sharp action offensively, I'm going to bank
15:02
on hopefully the Cubs putting up some runs tonight.
15:05
They're hitting sixty or they've hit 65 homers.
15:08
They've scored 286 runs. Tampa Bay has hit 51 homers,
15:12
scored 260 runs. So really to me, this is all
15:15
about Tampa opening as a short favorite and the line dropping,
15:18
becoming a pick em game and that coincides with this 59% bets 80%
15:22
dollars on the cubbies. So let's hope that Assad pitches
15:25
well. Let's get the offense going.
15:26
I'm going Chicago cubbies guys shop around.
15:30
I was able to get the Cubs at minus one O 5.
15:32
Basically a pick em Price, Keep on cruising.
15:35
Next one for you, Cleveland, Cincinnati, the battle of Ohio
15:39
and I'm going with the Guardians, baby.
15:42
Cleveland Guardians. You remember last night the
15:44
Guardians had a win. They were able to post a
15:48
victory. What was the score there?
15:49
It was five to three. There's actually a little bit of
15:52
a line move there towards Cincinnati and it looks
15:53
Cincinnati looked a little sharp, but Cleveland was too
15:56
good able to win that thing. Anyway, I'll be looking forward
15:59
toward tonight. 7:10 PM first pitch in Cincinnati, we have
16:03
Tanner Beebe going for Cleveland.
16:04
He's four and one of the 3.73 ERA.
16:06
He'll be opposed by the lefty Nick Lodolo who's six and two
16:10
with a 2.92 ERA. But second ago just talked about
16:14
Tampa Bay and Chicago, how that was a, you know, Tampa Bay
16:17
favored and now it's a pick em game.
16:19
So tells us smart money is on Chicago.
16:22
Well, this Cleveland and Cincy game is a massive dog to fave
16:25
line move in favor of Cleveland. This game actually opened with
16:29
the Reds favored. Reds are around a -, 115 -, 120
16:32
home favorite. Now it's flipped to Cleveland
16:35
-110 -, 115. So this line is basically going
16:39
away from Cincy toward Cleveland.
16:41
A dog to fave line move telling us that smart money here is on
16:44
the guardians. Guardians are getting around 70%
16:47
of bets, but nearly 80% of the money.
16:49
So good low bets, higher dollar bets split in favor of
16:51
Cleveland. You are now looking at a
16:55
situation here like my system matches are kind of weird
16:58
because when you're basically a pick em, you no longer qualify
17:01
as like you're kind of hopping the fence of dog to fave.
17:04
So my systems are based on specifically dog or favorite.
17:07
So you're kind of, you know, ping ponging system matches
17:10
here. But what I do like about
17:11
Cleveland, aside from the line move, good low, low bets, higher
17:14
dollars betswit. They would also now be in a good
17:18
spot offensively. They're hitting 24073 homers,
17:21
330 runs scored versus the Reds were only hitting two 2765
17:26
homers, 291 runs scored. Technically Cleveland's favorite
17:31
here. That would match as a
17:32
interleague favorite as well as a favorite low total corelative
17:35
betting low bets, higher dollars.
17:37
But also Tanner BB in particular his last 13 starts.
17:41
The Cleveland guardians are 11 and two in those games and
17:44
Tanner BB at home has an ERA of five point O 6 on the road, 2.2
17:48
O. But Long story short guys, if
17:50
you like dog to fave line moves, we got a match here on
17:53
Cleveland. I'm going with the Cleveland
17:54
guardians guys shop around. I was able to get able to get
17:57
Cleveland around -105 -, 110. Then last by the night.
18:02
Staying up late, let's go to Chavez Ravine.
18:06
That's right home of the LA Dodgers.
18:08
I'm going with the Dodgers tonight, guys.
18:10
I'm going with the Dodgers here. Second game of a series
18:12
interleague series against the Texas Rangers.
18:14
Dodgers rolled last night, 15 to two easily cruising there is
18:18
around a -, 165 home favorite. But for tonight, we have John
18:22
Gray for Texas going. He's been good this year, two
18:24
and two, 2.12 ERA. He'll be opposed by Walker
18:27
Bueller, one and three, 4.82 ERA number.
18:31
Bueller's been a stud had Tommy John been out for a while.
18:34
So he's working his way back. But First off, why am I taking
18:37
the Dodgers big line moving their favor?
18:39
This game opened with the Dodgers listed around a -, 165
18:43
home favorite. Now the Dodgers have gotten
18:45
steamed all the way up to -190 So again, this line has moved
18:49
really big or bigly as I like to say, in favor of the Dodgers.
18:52
That tells me that as soon as that line open, wiseguys said,
18:55
hey, we got a hammer. The Dodgers in the spot causing
18:58
that big significant line change in their favor.
19:00
Now, aside from the big line move, good system matches here.
19:03
Dodgers will be in home in a league favorite off a win, 62
19:06
percent, 4% ROI this year. We've also seen some shops dip
19:10
this total 8 1/2 down to 8. That would also match with our
19:14
correlative betting favorite in a game where in which the total
19:17
falls 60% this season. Now Walker Bueller has been
19:21
better at home than on the road. At home 3.38 ERA, on the road
19:24
6.75. Once again, I'm banking on the
19:27
offense of the Dodgers hopefully to come through as they put up
19:30
15 runs yesterday hitting on the season.
19:32
Two 5891 bombs, 346 runs scored versus the Texas Rangers hitting
19:38
24167 homers, 287 runs scored. Then lastly, you know, of
19:44
course, your favorite low total here correlative betting, but
19:47
also home Rd. Texas only 15 and 18 on the
19:49
road. The LA Dodgers 22 and 12 at home
19:53
and one of the best things about a dodgers game.
19:55
Hopefully if they're able to win it, you hear get to your Randy
19:57
Newman. I love LA once as they as they
20:00
win and and start to shake hands.
20:02
So you know Boston love that dirty water LA Randy Newman.
20:05
You can't go wrong there. But really that big steam move
20:08
jumped out to me told me a lot of big money took the Dodgers.
20:10
That's where I want to be again shop round.
20:13
You should be able to find Dodgers sub 200.
20:15
I got the dodgers at -190 so dodgers, Cleveland Cubs,
20:19
Baltimore, hopefully a fade the trendy dog Dallas Mavs can come
20:23
through fingers crossed in the NBA Finals.
20:25
Dallas Mavs money line. So that about does it for
20:28
episode 54 of the all systems go sports betting podcast.
20:32
But reminder, if you enjoy this pod, if you missed this pod
20:35
while I was off on my safari in Africa, well, First off, thank
20:38
you for listening. Thank you for returning, but can
20:41
you do me a favor? Can you help me to grow this pod
20:43
organically? One thing that can really,
20:45
really help us to grow this pod is simply to just give it a 5
20:48
star review. So if you're listening on
20:50
Spotify or iTunes, give it five stars.
20:53
That'll help us grow and gain more credibility.
20:55
And also you can recommend it to a friend, you know, send it, you
20:58
know, via DM, Twitter or text it to a friend.
21:01
If you have a sports betting buddy of yours who maybe wants a
21:04
little bit more insight from a data perspective, best way to
21:07
grow something is to refer it from a friend, someone you trust
21:11
in in love and know and love. You're much more likely to take
21:14
advantage of it. So give it a 5 star review,
21:16
recommend it to a friend. That would really mean a lot to
21:18
me guys. Secondly, if you enjoy the pod
21:21
because you like the breakdowns, this approach to sports betting,
21:24
you notice I'm not talking about who I like tonight, who I think
21:27
will win, who I want to win, who I hope will.
21:29
And no, we're betting based off data because we're acting like
21:32
Wall Street traders trying to look at the stock market,
21:34
identify trends where the smart money is going.
21:37
But if you want to learn more about how to be a successful
21:40
data-driven contrarian, better guess what?
21:42
I wrote a book, it's called the Everything Guide to Sports
21:45
Betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
21:47
the Everything Guide to sports betting, pick up a copy for you
21:50
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
21:51
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
21:54
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
21:56
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
21:59
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan,
22:02
chapters in all the major sports.
22:03
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
22:05
Betting. So pick one up and when I see at
22:07
the book, I will sign my book for you and I'll buy you a beer.
22:10
If you don't drink, I'll buy a ginger ale.
22:13
Lastly, of course, have you signed up for your Rhythm 7 day
22:16
free trial or your Juice Reel 7 day free trial?
22:19
Rhythm and Juice Reel do a great job of helping me power this
22:22
podcast to AI driven apps that can help you win that I believe
22:26
in because I've seen them work and seen them profit.
22:28
But if you haven't done it yet, I want you to 1st sign up for
22:31
Rhythm. You can just use the link that's
22:33
listed within the bio description of this podcast.
22:36
You can also check my Twitter page at Josh under score
22:38
insights. But once you sign up, click that
22:40
custom link. You're then going to get model
22:42
projections for final scores, looking at totals, you know, you
22:46
know, spreads as well as money lines.
22:49
And then what I really like is the player prop opportunities as
22:52
well as creating not only your own models, but following the
22:55
recommended models from the rhythm team.
22:57
And then Juice Reel, who I also love.
23:00
Juice Reel is great because it's just another tool in your tool
23:02
case in which you can sync your sports books to Juice Reel.
23:06
Once you place a bet in your app, it'll show up on Juice Reel
23:09
as well. You can track your performance,
23:11
learn more about yourself as a better.
23:12
You can follow the recommended best bets from Robo Jackson.
23:15
Remember last night was with us on Baltimore.
23:17
You can use the arbitrage opportunity or the sharp mush
23:20
indicators of the day. Just another great way to
23:23
increase your chances of winning by leaning on data that is legit
23:27
and that is that is profitable and actionable.
23:29
So go sign up for both of those free trials and then let me know
23:32
if you like him. I'm pretty sure that you will.
23:34
Lastly, of course, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
23:38
City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New
23:39
Hampshire, Foxwoods are Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
23:43
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park casino R.E.M.
23:45
Jim Springfield and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts or
23:48
out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
23:50
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest juice
23:53
possible. Found the South Point sweat and
23:55
Sharp can train plays jumping in the stadium swim pool when Kyle
23:58
Higashioka walks you off with the Padres last night.
24:02
What you're going to do is walk up to me and you're going to
24:03
show me a Padres ticket, an Orioles ticket, a Saint Louis
24:07
Pittsburgh under 7 1/2 whatever you do that.
24:10
I can't believe we we missed out on a four in one night because
24:12
the WNBA came up a point and a half short.
24:14
Come on man. We'll get our next one guys.
24:17
But first one's on me next one's on you.
24:18
We're going to post about the book Sweat sharp contrarian
24:21
plays all night long. So wish the best of luck
24:23
everyone enjoy the NBA Finals again.
24:26
I'm a Celts fan, but I'm I'm root for Dallas here tonight so
24:29
we can get some winners on the diamond.
24:31
And of course, my parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay
24:33
contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
24:36
side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
24:38
never against it. Well, smart money won every
24:40
time. Of course not.
24:41
But here's the thing. Anything can happen in a one
24:44
off. You got to consistently stay
24:45
with it long term. And if we can consistently long
24:47
term get down on games that fit our model against the public
24:51
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
24:54
some closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
24:56
to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the sweats everyone.
24:59
Let's get some winning tickets here for tonight.
25:01
I'll see you tomorrow on a big Thirsty Thursday for episode 55
25:05
of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
25:08
Rhythm. Have a great night everyone,
25:10
good luck.