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2025, A Year in Review · Look Forward

• 0:06
  Hello, my name's Andy Critchlow.
• 0:07
  I'm head of news at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and welcome to the
• 0:12
  Look Forward Podcast from S&P Global.
• 0:15
  In today's rapidly shifting Markets success depends on
• 0:18
  anticipating what's next.
• 0:20
  The professionals who excel are those who can spot emerging trends
• 0:24
  before they fully materialize.
• 0:27
  Look Forward podcast delivers exactly that insights to help you prepare for
• 0:32
  tomorrow's opportunities and challenges.
• 0:35
  We bring you expert perspectives on macroeconomic trends, capital markets,
• 0:40
  energy transition, and global trade.
• 0:43
  A sharp focus on what these developments mean for the decisions
• 0:48
  that will shape your tomorrow.
• 0:50
  This podcast connects you with S&P global's.
• 0:53
  Look Forward council bringing cutting edge research on long-term trends
• 0:58
  and transformative market shifts.
• 1:01
  Together we are committed to providing the forward-looking intelligence you need
• 1:06
  to navigate uncertainty with confidence.
• 1:09
  Welcome to the final edition of the Year of the Look Forward Podcast, our special
• 1:15
  Christmas edition, uh, to wrap up, uh, what has been, uh, an unforgettable 2025.
• 1:23
  Um, my name's Andy Critchlow.
• 1:24
  I'm head of news at S&P Global Energy, uh, and I am delighted to be joined today by
• 1:32
  my co-hosts of the Look Forward Podcast.
• 1:35
  First, Molly Mintz.
• 1:37
  Um, who's joining me from New York?
• 1:40
  Um, Molly, do you want to say a little bit about you and what you do at S&P Global?
• 1:45
  Sure, thrilled to be here visiting from New York, fresh off a 6:00
• 1:49
  AM flight landed yesterday.
• 1:50
  So you get me on about one operating brain cell today in the studio.
• 1:54
  Andy.
• 1:55
  My name is Molly Mince, lead strategist at S&P Global Ratings.
• 1:59
  We cover emerging and established risks on our research and development team.
• 2:04
  So our ratings analysts obviously cover the core, um,
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  all obviously across all sectors.
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  Our research and development team publishes a host of research across
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  emerging markets, credit conditions, ratings, performance, private
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  markets, sustainable finance, and um, I help to support our thought
• 2:21
  leadership and ratings, uh, research coverage across all those core areas.
• 2:25
  Wow.
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  So you are really at the, uh, the sharp end.
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  Of the pointy stick.
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  Yes.
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  Spearing away.
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  Yes.
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  In these uncertain conditions, so to speak.
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  Um, and we are also joined by, um, Aries Poon, um, a former colleague of mine
• 2:40
  at the Wall Street Journal, um, now with S&P Global in Hong Kong, Aries.
• 2:46
  Great to see you.
• 2:47
  Great to see you, Andy.
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  Um, yeah, the world is, is, you know, round and, uh, I'm glad to,
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  uh, get to work, uh, with you again.
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  So, uh, my name is Aries Poon.
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  I'm based in Hong Kong.
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  Uh, I'm leading the, uh, analysis team for economics and country risk
• 3:02
  for Asia Pacific and Latin America.
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  Uh, my team basically, um, uh.
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  Provides economic forecast, uh, predictions, narratives,
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  and also country risk.
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  Um, assessment for more than 200 countries in the world.
• 3:18
  Um, I joined S&P, um, eight years ago as the lead for, um, financial news and
• 3:24
  switched over to, um, the economics and country risk team around four years ago.
• 3:30
  You are a, um, a poacher turned gamekeeper.
• 3:34
  As, we would say in, in, in the UK you, you, you turn from being a journalist
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  to being something that, you know, some would say infinitely more useful.
• 3:44
  When we look back at some of our past podcasts this year, um, you know,
• 3:49
  probably one of the more, um, you know, interesting, um, in terms of kind of
• 3:55
  what he said actually coming to pass.
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  Now, one of Paul's, you know, main themes throughout the year when we
• 4:02
  interviewed him was the persistence of inflation and the impact that that can
• 4:07
  have on global economies because those inflationary fears, you know, certainly
• 4:13
  the Fed has been cautious on rates, uh, but those inflationary fears that we
• 4:17
  really did worry about back in say, 2022.
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  Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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  You had a big kind of spike in commodity prices as a consequence of that.
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  And you know, obviously a feed through into inflation rates globally,
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  but that's sort of dissipated.
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  I mean, where do you see inflation, you know, not just in the US going, but you
• 4:35
  know, globally, a. Over the next year?
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  Well, if you think back to 2022, that was a big surprise, right?
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  We hadn't seen inflation, uh, at those rates since the 1970s.
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  And to be honest, central banks had spent the previous two
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  decades trying to get inflation up rather than get inflation down.
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  And we had the combination of, some of the shocks, uh, supply shocks
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  from the pandemic and overly loose, uh, fiscal policy in many countries.
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  And we had that burst of inflation that has been, um, you know, that's
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  been kind of put under control.
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  We had the steep rise in policy rates, but most central banks or at are at or near
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  their target that ECB in our view is done.
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  For example, uh, cutting rates.
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  But, um, that was a bit of, uh, an embarrassment for central
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  banks and their credibility, uh, is very important to them.
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  They wanna make sure inflation expectations are anchored,
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  uh, over the medium term.
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  That's the way they measure their credibility.
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  So I think the, the cuts have been cautious.
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  We did see a 50 from the Fed, and I think we saw 50 from the Bank
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  of Canada, but most central banks.
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  Have been going by 25 basis points, cutting rates since
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  the middle, uh, of last year.
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  And again, we're getting inflation close to target, although the tariffs are gonna
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  complicate the picture a bit in the US.
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  It's interesting, the tension that's caused by inflation globally.
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  One of the earlier.
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  Episodes that we recorded was with Carlos Pasquale, chief, um,
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  geopolitics Officer, uh, and thought leader at S&P Global Energy, Carlos,
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  uh, former senior US Ambassador.
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  Someone uniquely positioned to look into some of the geopolitical impacts that the
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  world has faced, and one of the things Carlos and I talked about was how no
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  one in the world's happy at the moment.
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  Mm-hmm.
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  You know, off air.
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  We talked about, you know, this is an angry world and you
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  know, I think that few people.
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  Certainly a few people that we've spoken to on this podcast can
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  really comment on kind of what that means, you know, like you can, from
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  your experiences, both in terms of international affairs and your career
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  and, and now in your role at S&P Global.
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  Um, Andy first, uh, thank you for having me on the podcast.
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  It's a pleasure to join you and thank you for having this conversation.
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  I think this question of anger in the world of alienation of
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  polarization is one that we really have to stare in the face and deal
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  with, um, in an a very explicit way.
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  We faced it for a long period of time where there are groups of people
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  within countries that have felt.
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  That they have not had the benefit of rising with economic growth.
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  It's been an issue with globalization.
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  It's been a question about how income is distributed and job opportunities are
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  distributed internally within countries.
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  It's an international issue on how the opportunities globally are spread across
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  countries and it's an issue that's affected global institutions, the the UN,
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  the World Trade organizations and others.
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  It's effected
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  their credibility.
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  And now Andy, I think we face another set of challenges where we have had,
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  over the past eight decades, a global international order, fractured as it is
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  with the anger that we've had that has been focused on the concept of rules of
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  interdependence on, globalization to one now driven by the United States, which
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  is focused on being transactional, of doing deals, of being nationalistic.
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  It's Make America great again.
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  It's not looking at what is good for the world and it's protectionist,
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  it's focused around tariffs.
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  As President Trump has indicated, that's his favorite tool.
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  And as a result of that, it puts us into an environment where that transactionalism
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  and the individual negotiations create an environment of breaking apart
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  relationships because Andy, I'm a lot more effective when I'm negotiating with
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  you and breaking you apart from your team than really dealing with it together.
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  And it means that.
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  Being anti alliance anti agreement is part of that transactional world.
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  So we're now dealing with that added element on top of an angry world and
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  the, the, the type of, um, fracturing and polarization that we've had in the past.
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  So great challenges that we're facing economically, politically,
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  in the world of diplomacy.
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  You Know.
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  Yes, there's lots of positives.
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  There's lots of, of, of great things that we can say around how
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  AI is gonna boost economic growth.
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  It's going to, um, um, I guess take much of the, the unpredictable
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  nature out of economics and, and forecasting and research away.
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  But also there's this great unknown about what, what it does do, right?
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  Brian on that front, let's unpack how data center investments are
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  increasingly moving the macro needle.
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  Our latest look forward journal research finds that AI driven data
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  center growth added roughly half a percentage point to us GDP in mid 2025.
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  What's behind this surge?
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  Will these investments translate into lasting productivity gains
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  rather than just a construction boom.
• 9:51
  Yeah, I mean it's a lot to unpack, unpack there, but, but fundamentally, it's true.
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  You know, data centers and the infrastructure that supports them
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  are becoming a critical engine for the US economy and beyond.
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  The recent surge investment isn't just about LA or buildings, of course,
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  and includes the servers, the racks, the cooling systems, the software and
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  the R&D that power these facilities.
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  So our analysis at S&P suggests that these combined investments added a roughly a
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  half percentage point, as you mentioned.
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  And that's a clear sign that AI infrastructure is now a major
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  economic contributor, not just a tech narrative or story.
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  And this shift is transforming the tech sector itself.
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  When we think about the public cloud providers, we call them hyperscalers,
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  um, in our world, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, AWS, they're now investing.
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  With re revenue CapEx ratios comparable to like what the telecom operators will
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  do during a major network build phase.
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  So that's really creating a high tech capital and energy intensive set of
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  facilities, which is really not what they've traditionally done in the
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  past, in, in, in a lot of corners.
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  So the result of this is big tech is becoming more CapEx heavy, more energy
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  intensive, increasingly influential on productivity, um, uh, widely.
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  The key question which you raise, right Molly, is where and how?
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  And whe, when will this drive lasting productivity gains?
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  So it's early.
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  Our 451 research demand side data suggests that the expectations for scale remain
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  high, but long-term impact here really depends on a number of factors, which is.
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  How effectively AI can augment labor, drive efficiency, and
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  integrate into business processes.
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  And these are complex challenges.
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  They require a complete rethink of workflows and the human machine
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  interplay and it, that's not easy.
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  Um, but essentially where we are today is the infrastructure is being
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  ground for these transformations.
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  And the translation to sustain economic benefits will vary
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  by industry, by company.
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  By specific processes.
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  Like for instance, in areas like software development and customer
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  experience, the impact of AI is already pronounced and, and producing outcomes.
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  Some industries are still trying to figure out what they're gonna do,
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  But we've also, uh, looked at some of the old economy as well.
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  And one of the more interesting, uh, um, episodes that, uh, um,
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  I hosted was looking into the growth of the cement industry.
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  Hmm.
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  I think that it's very easy to focus, uh, in today's world on.
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  Tech on, on where, um, you know, the future growth is gonna come from.
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  But actually so much of what we do in the world depends on, on old
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  world skills, depends on builders.
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  It depends on putting up buildings around the world on, on, on powering
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  growth through infrastructure.
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  Something like 4.6 billion tons of, of cement that is global demand still.
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  And, you know, we need to have the investment to, um, you know, continue
• 13:04
  with these extractive industries, which are, you know, critically important.
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  But first Binny, I wanted to come to you with a question.
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  Um, you know, why, why, why cement pricing?
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  I mean, the Platts known for its oil, price, price benchmarks known
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  for its, you know, LNG benchmarks.
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  Cement is an new frontier.
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  Um.
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  Yeah.
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  Thank, thank you, Andy.
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  Actually, a, a really good question.
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  Something that we've been asked a lot in the last, uh, nearly one more
• 13:31
  than one year of, uh, us researching and launching coverage of the sector.
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  What we realized when that there we were, as you mentioned, we were covering gas,
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  we were covering LNG, we were covering, we were covering all tertiary sectors
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  that were related to cement, but for some reason cement, which is, you know,
• 13:52
  4.1 billion tons or you know, consumed.
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  And, uh, as Mr Akçay said, nearly 200 million tons of sea
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  bond trade, which is massive.
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  And it just went unnoticed.
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  Uh, so, and when we started, uh, researching the sector as Mr.
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  Structures also mentioned, you know, the geopolitical developments, the
• 14:12
  developments and the trade orders, everything pointed to the fact that, you
• 14:17
  know, this sector needed to be looked at.
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  And we launched with, uh, in a very lean manner, uh, in
• 14:25
  January this year with actually.
• 14:26
  Prices outta Turkey because as Mr Akçay mentioned, and our research also proved
• 14:32
  that, uh, Turkey is a dominant force when it comes to global cement trade,
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  you know, for 2026, you know, what do you think is the kind of key, um.
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  You know, for, for me, if I think, you know, cement was the kind of
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  interesting story in, in 2025.
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  Right.
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  Um, what's the interesting story in 2026,
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  I would be remiss to say cement.
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  Um, I'll leave that to you for, um, from my perspective in what we're
• 15:00
  really closely watching in S&P Global Ratings is private markets.
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  I think the, um, the boom.
• 15:07
  Of data centers is one thing, but how private markets have grown in scale,
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  scope sophistication over the last decade has been extraordinary to watch.
• 15:18
  And you know, private credit can no longer be seen as a niche market.
• 15:23
  It really is.
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  Um, not only competing with public markets, but totally
• 15:27
  converging with, um, public credit.
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  And we like to say in, um, at ratings that credit is credit, whether public
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  or private, um, rated or unrated.
• 15:37
  Um, and we're really closely watching to see how new and
• 15:40
  novel structures are emerging.
• 15:43
  What we're seeing in data centers is that new structures are emerging over
• 15:46
  time, new financing structures, and it's really bringing, um, a, a tremendous
• 15:51
  level of, uh, complexity to the market.
• 15:54
  Mm-hmm.
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  Um, it's taking a new level of, um.
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  Analytical excellence and criteria from our analysts to,
• 16:02
  um, rate these, uh, structures.
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  I think it'll be really interesting to see moving forward, um, how
• 16:09
  private credit adapts, especially now that public sentiment has.
• 16:13
  Started to shift with some, um, really high profile, high profile
• 16:17
  defaults towards the end of this year.
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  Um, we saw first brands make some big news in the market, um, with their default.
• 16:25
  Um, there's been some market commentators question whether private credit is a
• 16:29
  story of cockroaches versus termites.
• 16:32
  Um, I may be from Colorado, but I am not a very big fan of bugs.
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  The way that we see pipe private credit moving forward is that, um.
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  Systemic, we do not see systemic risk in the market.
• 16:43
  Mm-hmm.
• 16:44
  We see private credit, um, and these examples of defaults to
• 16:48
  be idiosyncratic, um, and not indicative of broad systemic risk.
• 16:52
  Mm-hmm.
• 16:52
  But that we see that private credit over time may emerge to be, um, creating
• 16:57
  some more fragmentation in the market.
• 17:00
  Because as these novel structures kind of come into play, there is
• 17:04
  the possibility, um, and likelihood that with more customization, more
• 17:08
  bespoke structuring, um, you're kind of getting one-on-one approaches.
• 17:13
  There's less room for, um, uh, you know, tradability in the market.
• 17:18
  You're, you're getting, you're not getting a one size fits all approach
• 17:21
  that you see in general public markets.
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  So that's something that we're gonna be closely paying attention to.
• 17:27
  Just to wrap up.
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  Um, Aries, um, we've got Molly's big thing for 2026.
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  Mm-hmm.
• 17:37
  Private credit growth of, of private credit markets and growth of scrutiny
• 17:41
  and interesting private credit markets.
• 17:43
  What's your big thing for 2026 that you think people should
• 17:48
  be keeping their eyes on?
• 17:50
  Um, I think, um, technology, but technology as in, um, uh, uh,
• 17:57
  technology, uh, competition, you know, among countries, uh, which
• 18:01
  are going to shape, uh, some of the major bilateral or multilateral
• 18:06
  relations, you know, involving us, China, EU, Asian, and other countries.
• 18:12
  Um, I, I think the other thing I. Am also interested to look at
• 18:16
  is the development of Stablecoin.
• 18:19
  'cause in fact, you know, many clients actually brought
• 18:21
  up this question recently.
• 18:22
  You know, given the market cap of stablecoin has been, has reached
• 18:26
  to almost $300 billion, you know, and it's actually a big thing.
• 18:31
  And
• 18:32
  How does it work?
• 18:33
  Stablecoin?
• 18:33
  Explain it to me.
• 18:34
  I'm, I'm never quite sure how these, these digital coins,
• 18:38
  so these.
• 18:39
  So, so, so these are crypto asset, um, issued by, um, financial
• 18:43
  intermediaries, or, uh, they're not issued by Central Bank.
• 18:46
  That would be CBDC.
• 18:48
  Right?
• 18:48
  But this one is issued by financial intermediaries and,
• 18:52
  um, and they, they, they do not have geographical restrictions.
• 18:55
  So, uh, you know.
• 18:57
  Once you have the e-wallet, uh, say JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, they issue certain
• 19:02
  amount of, um, you know, stable coins backed by reserves based in US dollar, or
• 19:08
  us, uh, treasury, short term treasuries.
• 19:11
  They can issue that to anyone and uh, those could be usually used.
• 19:15
  As in, um, cross-border payments and also for, uh, some countries, uh, for
• 19:21
  store of value because, um, I, uh, you know, in, in some countries where
• 19:25
  the exchange rates, uh, tends to be weak or volatile, um, then, you know,
• 19:30
  you know, savings in, uh, stable coin could be one way to hedge against.
• 19:35
  The, um, the, the value of assets that are, you know, um, uh, denominated
• 19:40
  in non-US dollar, um, asset.
• 19:43
  So we are going to see, there will likely be quite fast adoption of
• 19:47
  stablecoin, of course, within the us you know, for faster payments and stuff.
• 19:52
  But also outside of the US, especially in emerging and frontier markets that
• 19:57
  are relying on the step stability of the, um, of the US dollar.
• 20:01
  So, um, I think in the long term, it also plays into the narrative
• 20:05
  of, um, the dominance of US dollar in the global market as,
• 20:11
  as in reserve, um, uh, currency.
• 20:14
  Um, so I think, uh, in, in, uh, rather than de dollarization, you know, that
• 20:19
  has been, someone talked about it.
• 20:21
  Um, I think it is more like, um, like a re dollarization, uh, uh, move, uh,
• 20:26
  with the wide adoption of stablecoin.
• 20:28
  So I think that would be, that would have.
• 20:32
  Quite implications also on, um, you know, the geopolitical implications of
• 20:37
  the dominance of different currencies.
• 20:39
  Um, especially with Chinese Yuan, which is, um, rising as, um, another
• 20:44
  alternative, uh, you know, among BRICCS and among other countries when
• 20:48
  they trade, um, uh, among themselves.
• 20:51
  Finally, I understand cryptocurrency and stablecoin.
• 20:54
  Thank you.
• 20:55
  Um, well, um, for me it's agriculture and I think the big.
• 21:00
  Story of 2026, aside from potential, you know, peace deal in Ukraine between
• 21:07
  Russia, peace in the Middle East, um, global prosperity, and you know, Elon
• 21:13
  Musk finally sending people to to Mars.
• 21:16
  I think it's gonna be, um, agriculture.
• 21:19
  Um, I think that it takes at least a year for farmers, um,
• 21:24
  ultimately who are the, the engine drivers of the global agricultural
• 21:29
  powerhouse, which feeds the world.
• 21:31
  Um, it takes them a year to adjust to any, big policy changes, and
• 21:35
  we had those big policy changes at the beginning of this year with the
• 21:37
  Introduc introduction of tariffs.
• 21:40
  We've already started to see, you know, big changes in trade flows as
• 21:44
  a consequence of that, whether it's, uh, uh, China not buying us, uh,
• 21:49
  soybeans instead going to Brazil.
• 21:51
  Um, just one example, um, and you know, playing into this as well, is
• 21:57
  the impact of climate change globally.
• 22:00
  Um, uh, uh, uh, global heating.
• 22:03
  Uh, increase in, uh, severe climatic events.
• 22:08
  This all has a big impact on agriculture, but it takes farmers who, as I said
• 22:13
  at the, at the grassroots, the people that power the industry, it takes
• 22:17
  'em about a year to kind of figure out, well, this is what I need to
• 22:19
  do strategically with my business.
• 22:22
  Uh, this is what I need to plant.
• 22:23
  This is what I need to grow.
• 22:25
  Uh, these are the animals that I need to, to, to rear.
• 22:29
  And if you think about it.
• 22:30
  A farmer can only do really three things with the capital that a farmer has, they
• 22:34
  can buy more tractors and machinery so they can plant more crops, raise more
• 22:38
  animals, they can buy more animals, or they can buy more seed and plant more
• 22:42
  crops, or they can buy more fertilizer.
• 22:44
  So there's three things that you can actually do to increase productivity
• 22:48
  and all of those three things, it basically takes a year to put those into,
• 22:52
  uh, into effect and to see a change.
• 22:55
  So I think that we had the trigger in 2025 for global agriculture,
• 23:00
  which was the imposition of tariffs.
• 23:02
  Farmers now have had a year to adjust, react, reposition themselves,
• 23:07
  and I think 2026, we'll see, um, um, you know, a different world for
• 23:12
  agricultural commodities, whether that's gonna lead to more inflation.
• 23:17
  Um, I don't know.
• 23:18
  Whether it could lead to less inflation, I dunno.
• 23:21
  But it's gonna be an interesting sector to look at.
• 23:23
  And ultimately it feeds into the narrative, which is something
• 23:28
  that has underpinned my career for the last 25 years, which
• 23:31
  is one of growing consumption.
• 23:33
  We live in a world of about 8 billion people going to 10 billion by 2025,
• 23:38
  and all of those people are gonna need more energy, more commodities,
• 23:42
  more resources, more cement.
• 23:45
  More stable coin, uh, more private, uh, uh, uh, finance and capital.
• 23:51
  Um, uh, and you know, that's why working at S&P Global and, uh, uh, getting
• 23:57
  access to some of the great minds that we have, like Molly Mintz, uh,
• 24:01
  and, uh, uh, Aries Poon, uh, uh, the great research that we, uh, produce.
• 24:08
  The news and insights that we publish on a daily basis, uh, is a great privilege.
• 24:13
  So, um, thank you both and a merry Christmas, wherever
• 24:16
  you are and a happy New Year.
• 24:19
  Thank you.
• 24:19
  Thank you,
• 24:22
  thank you.
• 24:22
  Happy holidays.