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NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Playoffs Best Bets Sunday 1/11/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this, with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season man, with Wickens, the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hack Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Arch eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: The slump, yes, the slump discontinues, The slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you for toad
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: stool Sports. It is Sunday whatever, January eleventh. I am
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: as pissed as you'll ever see me, probably, Jeffrey, what's up, man.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Everybody's gonna want to get the fuck out of here,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: probably because I am not happy at all. There's no
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: fucking way that we should have lost that Green Bay play,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Absolutely no fucking green Bay played three games against the Bears,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: and the Bears led for a grand total of what
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: like maybe two minutes of game time. The only times
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: the Bears ever led in three entire games against Green
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Bay were literally the winning score in the Fluke overtime
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: game that they had to have a ton of shit,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: just basically they had to win by like a series
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: of miracles in that game. Then this game last night,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: after they were winning three to nothing, they were losing
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the game until whatever the final
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: minute of the game. So that's gonna piss me off
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: and off. But the game was fucking over. Green Bay
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: was winning the game twenty one to three at halftime.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: It should have been twenty four to three. But Matt
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Lafleur doesn't know how to manage at the end of games.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: He does not know how to clock manage, and he
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: should probably be fired or at the end of halves,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I should say, And it was kind of a problem
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: in both halves yesterday, but they had plenty of time
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: at the end of the first half to get closer
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: and instead they're like, nah, fuck it, let's just kick
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a fifty five yard field goal instead, and they missed.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Of course, I mean that's certainly not a guaranteed field goal,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: but they could have gotten closer kicked like maybe a
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: forty five yard or something, then we might be looking
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: at twenty four to three at halftime, and that alone
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: probably would have clinched the game for them. But whatever,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: they're up twenty one to three. Obviously they should win
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: the fucking game. Anyway. I think it was twenty one
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: to nine in the fourth quarter, so again, they should
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: still win the game. They give up a touchdown finally,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: so yet again the Bears. Two games in a row.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: The Bears didn't even have a touchdown until like at
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: least midway into the fourth quarter the previous game. It
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: wasn't until the final like two minutes of the game.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Last night it was with whatever, like maybe ten eight
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: minutes left, whatever it was. Then the then green Bay
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: scores a touchdown to answer, So, okay, green Bay's backup
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: whatever it's gonna be. But then green Bay misses the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: extra point, and that extra point point probably would have
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: sealed the game because it would have put them up
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: twelve instead of eleven. So if they're up twelve, then
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: they should fire Brandon mcmainus. By the way, that guy
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: fucking sucks. He's mcinus because he's a fucking asshole for
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: missing all these fucking kicks, missing the extra fucking point.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: So instead of being up twelve, they're up eleven, which
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: then means Chicago when they score, they score and they
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: get a two point conversion, Whereas if they had been
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: down twelve, they wouldn't have gone for the two point
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: conversion because they wouldn't have been able to cut it
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: to three, So that extra point might have won green
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Bay the game if they just made that, because it
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: would have changed the dynamics of the game from then on.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: So it would have forced Chicago to get another touchdown,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: although I know they did anyway, but then green Bay.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: If that was the case, green Bay probably would have
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: won the field goal at the end, but instead, no,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Chicago gets a two point conversion to cut it to three.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Then green Bay is down inside the Chicago thirty. They
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: get a couple of penalties, a delay of game whatever.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: They can't fucking advance the ball. They call a horrible
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: third downplay where it's like, like, what are you doing
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: with a third downplay where you're throwing to a receiver
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: that's like double covered sort of in the corner of
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: the end zone. What the fuck are you trying to do?
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: You need to gain fifteen yards extend the drive. If
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: you get a touchdown to this drive, you're gonna win
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: the fucking game. Because at this point green Bay is
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: still up three. Throw it over the middle of the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: fucking field, dude, where your guys have like more room
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: to run, more room to get separation from the receivers.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: What the fuck are you doing throwing into the corner
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: of the end zone like you need fifteen yards. Throw it.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Throw some like whatever you call it, not a slant,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: but like a post or whatever something, I don't know, whatever,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: something that goes over the middle of the field a
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: little bit deeper, and you're probably gonna be able to
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: convert the first down because the Bears defense is not
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: very good. I mean, Jordan Love had four fucking touchdowns
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: in the game, which, by the way, Caleb Williams was
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: not even good in the game. I know he had
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: over three hundred yards, but that was because the Bears
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: were losing the whole game, so they had to throw
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: like fifty passes. Caleb Williams only completed fifty percent of
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: his passes, and he had two touchdowns, two interceptions, and
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: he had no touchdowns until the fourth quarter. He's still
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: fucking ass. He's awful. Anyway, green Bay just figure they
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: just decided, all right, yeah, we're gonna settle for a
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: forty four yard field goal or whatever. They of course,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: they fucking missed that, and if they'd made that, they
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: would have won the game, because that would have put
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: them up six and then Chicago scores a touchdown, well,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Chicago probably would have well, Chicago would have gone for
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: the extra point because the extra point would have put
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Chicago up by one at that point, so then and
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: then green Bay was able. Green Bay got into field
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: goal range again at the end of the game, so
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: green Bay would have been able to kick a field
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: goal to win the game by two at the end
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: if they had made that field goal, but no, they
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: miss it. So then Chicago fucking scored green Bay. Their
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: defense doesn't hold at the very time that it needs to,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: even though green Bay's defense was good all game pretty much,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: and then in the fourth quarter, they just don't know
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: what the fuck to do. I don't know what the
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: fuck is going on. Chicago still gets down inside the
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: or exuson. Green Bay gets down inside the Chicago thirty
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: again at the end of the game. But at this
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: point they need a touchdown and that was it. They
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: couldn't get the touchdown. They wound up having to throw passes,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: which again it was stupid. They were just throwing passes
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: at the end zone. I think for the last couple
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: of plays from like the twenty twenty five instead of
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: trying to get closer. But I guess if you get closer,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: you gotta get out of bounds because Matt Lafleura had
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: already used timeouts because he stupidly used the timeout on
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: the prior drive, which didn't even work because they still
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: got a fucking delay of game after that, which set
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: the kicker back five yards, and that delay of game
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: might have been the difference in the game too, because
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: maybe they would have made a thirty nine yard where
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: they didn't make the forty four yard and they wasted
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: a time out for no fucking reason on that, so
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: they had one fewer time out on that final drive.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I am so fucking pissed you. There's no fucking way
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: that the Packers should have lost that game, Absolutely not.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: The Bears are still a complete fucking fraud. Matt la
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: floor should be fired. I'm not joking. The only thing
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: the Bears have gone for them is they have the
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: better coach. That's it. Fuck laflor Fuck this shit. And
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: then college basketball absolutely fucking pissed me off as well,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: because of course we started out the day three and
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: oh right out of the gate. NC State blowout win,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: not even close easy win. LSU they covered, they lost,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: but they covered Xavier easy win. We're already off to
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: a three and oh start. Georgetown looked like they were
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: gonna win, and then they somehow blew it in the
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: later portion of the game. They were winning the game
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: for the majority of the game. So we had a
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: couple of games like that. Yesterday, Houston Christian didn't cover
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: and I think they only missed by like a few points. Colorado,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I'll hand it to Colorado because they were the one
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: that should have been a loss, that was a winner.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: They were getting blown out in the game and I'm like, well,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: this is a loss, and then I look later and
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: they're in the game and they almost won. I'm like,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: all right, I'll hand it to Colorado for that not
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: going away. Man might want to fade Colorado in their
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: next game because that was an awesome late performance. Maybe
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I got a handed to Texas Tech for maybe getting
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: complacent there, but Colorado was able to cover that thing.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Cal State Northridge was just like Georgetown, but even worse.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Cal State Northridge was winning almost the whole game and
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: then they wind up lose that. That pissed me off too,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: because that looked like it was gonna be a win.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: They were winning for yeah, like at least seventy five
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of that game probably and then full disclosure
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: of San Jose State. Right after I was done with
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: the show, I went to actually put in the play
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: and it was eighteen was the number on that. So
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I actually got a push with San Jose State. So
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people probably took a lot
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: loss on it. I apologize, but again, I just I
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: got a bunch of books at my disposal. I find
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: the best number that I can, and that one landed
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: right on eighteen. Probably I probably deserved a loss on it,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: but well, I don't know. I mean, the game was
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: kind of it was just close to the number most
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: of the way. Well, I don't know if I deserved
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: a loss because it was a low scoring game. It
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: was just San Jose didn't do enough offensively, like Grand
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Canyon did not really do a ton in that game
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: to the point where they really should have covered a
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: big number like that. And then Wyoming, fuck them too.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: We should have won with Wyoming, I think too. So
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: it gets laid into the night and I'm like, all right,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a winning day because I'm gonna get
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: the Packers right, and I'm gonna get Wyoming right. I'm
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: sitting there and the Packers are up eleven and the
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: eleven with like four minutes to go or whatever, and
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Wyoming is winning outright with whatever it was ten minutes
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: left in the game, and I'm like, okay, cool, we're
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: gonna get both of these right. No, then Wyoming all
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: of a sud and I look later, They're down eight.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: I'm like, what the fuck is going on? And Wyoming
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: winds up not covering even though again they were winning
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: out right late in the game. I'm fucking pissed, dude.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: And then the hockey played blue as well. That was horrible.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna move on from that. Depending on the
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: number that you got in San Jose State, it was
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: four and seven or four six and one yesterday, and
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: it should have been a winning day, man, Like a
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: couple of those should have fallen the right way. Georgetown,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: cal State, Northridge, Green Bay clearly should have won, and
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: then Wyoming, like all of those were in position to
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: be winners. I'm not happy in college of basketball wound
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: up be four to four and ones, so you know,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: and again like more of them went the wrong way
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: than went the right way. So again we did get
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit lucky with the Colorado one though, But
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: still we got unlucky more than we got lucky, which
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: is bullshit. We're gonna move on to today. That was
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: a long rance. We're gonna have two college basketball plays here.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: One is in one of the big conferences, the other
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: is not. I have three NBA plays today, and you know,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll talk about them. And then I
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: do have an NFL play again today, which yeah, I mean,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I think I just have to do it, but I
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: don't know. All Right, college basketball, here we go. We
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: start out on at noon on Fox. We start out
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: with a good big ten game between Illinois, number sixteen
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: in the country and Iowa, number nineteen in the country.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: This will be an interesting game, and it is a
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: contrast of styles. And what do you know, Iowa is
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: actually number nineteen a Ken Bomb's rankings, but Illinois is
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: actually eighth. So I think that's what's going on with
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the market here, man. The market is indicating on Illinois
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: they flip from a one point dog to one and
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite, fifty six percent of the cash
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: on them, fifty seven percent of the tickets on Iowa.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: But I'm looking at this and I'm like, is the
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: public really gonna to be I think really on Iowa
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the public, why would they be like Iowa's the lesser
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: ranked team. They have the worst Big Ten record right now.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Illinois is like the team the type of team of
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: the public wants because this is a huge style contrast.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: And what does Illinois do. They score a lot of
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: points and they play fast. That's the type of team
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: that the public likes to play, not Iowa, who plays
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: really really ugly slow basketball. Not a team that the
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: public likes to be on, like a defense oriented team,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: although I think both teams actually are pretty good defensively,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: believe it or not. But there is a contrast in
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: pacing here. And if Iowa is able to slow this
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: thing down at home, which I think they might be
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: able to because it is easier also to slow the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: game down, I'm not sure about this market read here.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of this might be like numbers
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: guys just jumping in because Illinois in the rankings they're
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: not like as you see according to Kembum, like the
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Andalytics guys, the Power raidings guys have Illinois ranked higher
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: than the rankings makers do, so I think some of
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: that is numbers guys coming in on this but I
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: think situational guys like me kind of are going to
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: push back on that and disagree with it. I don't
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: have a play on this game, but I kind of
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: need to Iowa here. Illinois. I mean, I know they're
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: not coming off of anything great. I mean, they just
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: stomped Rutgers. It was at home, but if you look
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: at what Illinois has done on the road so far,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: it hasn't been as good. I mean, they only beat
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Penn State and Ohio State by eight each on the road,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: and Iowa's better than both of those teams. So Illinois, yeah,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I mean a first in this case only. They just
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: have to win the game basically, though, But they've been
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: better at home than on the road, let's just put
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: it that way. So that's a little bit of a concern.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: And they're coming off just a blowout win, which makes
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: them look good. Oni the Rutgers sucks. We'll talk about
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Rutgers later, but I was coming off an ugly loss
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: in Minnesota, man, and I think they might have been
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: looking ahead, Like I talked about that game, and I
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: liked Minnesota in that game. Didn't give it out as
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: a play. The only concern maybe is that it broke
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: a four game win streak for Iowa, so sometimes that
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: will hang you over. But you got to the guy
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: was showing up for Illinois, man. I think part of
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: the reason why they didn't do well at Minnesota is
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: because they were looking ahead to this Illinois game. So
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: I actually like Iowa in this game, which is contrary
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: to the market here. I know Illinois is a good team,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: and they are good defensively this year, tool though there's
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: still better offensively that ken Bum actually has them eighteen
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: the defense, And actually I might be wrong. Actually I
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: keep thinking of Illinois as this like fast team, but
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: ken Bum has them really low, actually in tempo. I'm
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: actually shocked by that. So don't listen to me. I
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: haven't watched Illinois play enough this year, I guess, But
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: they actually, I guess have slowed it down a bit
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: and focused more defense, which you usually don't see that
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: when they have the same coach there. I'm pretty sure
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: they have the same coach. I forget what I want
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: to say. Is his name Underwood? I think it is Underwood,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: not to be confused with Michigan's quarterback. Never been a
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: fan of this guy Illinois coach, but I saw him
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: live once at the during March Madness during the tournament
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: two years ago. But yeah, I mean I'm surprised to
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: see that. But okay, so both teams slow it down,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: but Iowa slows it down even more. Illinois is actually
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: the better team on both sides of the ball technically
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: according to kem Bum, but the defenses are almost even.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Obviously Illinois has the better offense though, like I was
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: not wrong about that, so I guess take all that
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: into consideration, I still slightly lean to Iowa in that game,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: though personally, Tyson, what's up man, thanks for hanging out. Yes,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Fau is favored over Memphis, although FAU has the better
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: record though, so I don't know. I don't know if
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: that's really a misleading looking line or not. That's on
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: ESPN two at one. Yes, I mean Memphis kind of
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: has the the or if you want to call it that,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: like Memphis is obviously, I mean, they got the names
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: surrounding whom they seem to always be in the tournament,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: although FAU made a name for themselves recently too with
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Dusty May, who is of course now coaching the powerhouse
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Michigan team over there. So it's not like FAU is
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: just this unknown quantity now because they did make the
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Final four two years ago or whatever, or three years ago.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I guess they made the tournament again the year after that. Yeah,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: FAU is favorite here, but also they're ten and six
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and Memphis is only seven and seven, So based on
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: the records, it almost makes it look a little easy
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: to take FAU, although I think part of the reason
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: why Memphis is seven and seven is because they played
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: a more difficult schedule out of conference. I think Memphis
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: is probably I would guess Memphis is probably power rated
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: as the better team. I mean, the oddsmakers are telling
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: you that the money is coming back, you know, Memphis
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: in this one. Florida Atlantic is up to a two
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: point favorite for one and a half. Fifty seven percent
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, but fifty four percent of
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: the cash on Memphis. So it looks like a slight
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: pros versus Joe's split on this one. Not an extreme one,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: but it looks like the public slightly leaning towards FAU,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: money actually slightly leaning towards Memphis. I don't really disagree
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: with Memphis here. Memphis is coming off a pretty ugly
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: game against Rice for the only one by six. Not
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: a good game. Really, Rice is not very good. Also,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: the food I'm not a huge fan of, just because
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: it's it's just kind of there. It's just an empty carb.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Don't hate rice, don't love rice. FAU is coming off
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: a better win, I would say, at UAB, which I'm
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: assuming UAB was probably a favorite in that game. So
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: that was a nice win. Now, yeah, they are coming
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: back home. But FAU is actually two big games in
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: a row. They played Tulane on the road the game
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: before that, and tu Lane is actually a top this
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: conference right now. That was a big, pretty big game
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: for them. So yeah, the setup for this I think
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: is a little bit favorable to Memphis. So I agree
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: with the money on that. I would slightly lean towards Memphis,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna I don't want anything to do
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: with the game, but slightly into Memphis for me here. Yeah, correct,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: FAU lost to Tulane. You see f A is not
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: in this conference though, you see f is in the
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Big twelve because they moved. Yeah, the Carolina Panthers they
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: played pretty well yesterday. Man, they had some chances to
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: win that game. I was surprised once that game got going, Dude,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure the Rams right out of the gate
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: were up fourteen and nothing weren't there, and I'm like,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: this game is over. But yeah, Carolina definitely definitely showed
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know what I want to say, but they
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: showed balls, I guess, although it was kind of like
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: they were free rolling because nobody expected them to be
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: there this year. But yeah, they played pretty well. Correct. Yeah,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: that game. I watched the end of the game. It
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: was a tight, butthole game. That is correct, correct, all right,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: next game up. Here's the best bet for you, and
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: it is an ugly, ugly one. Both of my bets
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: are really ugly, but this one is really difficult to stomach.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: But there's a lot about the situation here that I like,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: even Jeffery is gonna like this. Well, Jeffrey's gonna like
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: that it's an underdog and that there's a revenge aspect
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: to this. Cleveland State plus seven and a half is
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: my first play against Detroit Mercy. Now, I know Cleveland
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: State is awful. I know ken Bum has them really bad.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Three hundred twenty five, three hundred and twenty fifth. According
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: to him, they're bottom ten basically in defense, they're horrible.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: I understand all of that, but we're still gonna do
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: this because Detroit Mercy is not that much better really
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: and they're in a bad spot. Both teams in fact,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: are bad defensively, so I know this is probably gonna
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: be a bit of a higher scoring game. The total
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: is one fifty nine right now, and I know that
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: has a tendency to be more favorable to the favorite,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: but I don't think so like in this case, I
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: just don't like it. I like Cleveland State. Cleveland State
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: just got blown out at Oakland. Oakland's one of the
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: better teams in this Horizon League this year, so I'm
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: not gonna put too much weight into that. Yeah, they're
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: playing a third straight road game, which does worry me
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit, but the spot is worse for Detroit
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: here man. Detroit just played really close against Wright State.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Right State is currently a top this conference. That was
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: a big game for Detroit Mercy. They played really close
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: with Wright State coming on the heels of playing Robert
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Morris as well, and Robert Morris won the conference last
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: year and they're in the upper half again this year.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: And now after they played lowly Cleveland State, who's at
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: the bottom, only above IU Indy, who is just just
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: running the floor, not playing any defense whatever. Detroit Mercy
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: plays Northern Kentucky next, and that's also a bigger game.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Northern Kentucky is right behind the conference leaders right now.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: So I think this is a sandwich spot. But let's
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: make this even better. This is a road reversal revenge
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: angle because we're looking at a second meeting already here
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: because Detroit Mersey already played Cleveland State at Cleveland State
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: and beat them by twelve. So the reason why this
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: works is not really revenge necessarily. It's not really necessarily that, oh,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: this team is gonna be really angry or whatever. But
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: the team that lost should be motivated for sure. Then
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: the team that won that previous game, you could definitely
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: call their motivation into question. And that's what I'm doing here,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: and I'm doing that because they're in a sandwich spot.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: And now on top of that, they also beat Cleveland
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: State the first time, so I think that makes it
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: easier for them to overlook Cleveland State. And that's part
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: of the reasoning for why this This type of situation
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: works more often than it doesn't. But if you dive
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: into the box score, it'll really indicate something here. Even
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: though I know Cleveland State is bad, but Cleveland State
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: was favored in this game, and not just according to
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: ESPN here. But I went back and I actually said, okay,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: well it said ESPN was giving Cleveland State a sixty
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: eight point four percent chance to win this game or whatever,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: sixty seven point four. I'm like, that can't quite be right, right,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: So I went and I looked at what the odds
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: were on this game. Cleveland State was actually like a
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: three point favor in this game. So how does Cleveland
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: State go from being a three point favorite on I
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: think this was December sixth and then a month later
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: they're on the road and they're a seven point underdog.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: What Like that doesn't make any sense, Like the line
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: should probably be four, Like even if you want to say,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: well these teams, like we've seen more from these teams,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: so I kind of know more about what these teams are, right,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: So okay, so maybe the line should be like five
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: on Detroit or seven. To me, seems like a big
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: time overreaction. And if you look at this game, this
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: result was actually misleading. Cleveland State actually won the rebounding
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: battle in the game forty two to thirty three, so
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State and away was the better team. They lost
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: the turnover battle badly thirteen to six, which usually you
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: don't see from a home team, So that was part
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: of the reason they lost, was they lost the turnover battle,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: and that's something that could be cleaned up again. They
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: won the rebound battle, which is the most predictive stat
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland State shot horribly in the game. They shot
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: thirty one percent from the field, so that's basically that's
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: the other reason why they lost. I think that was.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: I know Cleveland State's not a good team, but they're
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: better offensively than defensively, so you gotta think they're gonna
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: have a better shooting percentage this time. In this one.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: That was a bit of an outlier as well. So yeah,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: for all those reasons, I like Cleveland State in this one.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: We don't really see the percentages yet. We're getting seven
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: seven and a half on this that's my first play
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State, as ugly as it is, We're going with
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, correct, Yeah, the Vikings Eagles. Yes, I'm gonna
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: talk about that game towards the end. I don't know
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: about a miracle catch. I mean the Rams. The Rams
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: had some time left to still win that game, right,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: like Carolina had had the ball one more time at
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: the end. It was a really good catch and throw
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: there to Parkinson or whatever. But the Rams, I don't know, man,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: it seemed at that point it was pretty definitive that
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: the Rams are gonna score to win the game there.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't know. I don't quite want to
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: call it a miracle. They're not the Chicago Bears. Kyle,
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Oh shit, dude, why do I keep
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: I apologize? Why do I keep doing this? Man, that's
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: two days in a row. Thank you for letting me know.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: That's two days in a row. I've forgotten to do this. Yeah,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: I apologize. So yeah, I talked about Illinois io or here.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: You can see the market here. I disagreed with that one.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: And then I did talk about Memphis FAU. You can
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: see the market here for that one that I talked about.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: The numbers have moved a little bit since I talked
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: about them. And then here's this Detroit Cleveland State game
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: I just talked about, So there you go. But yeah,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: for me, as I said, I disagree with the market
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: and the Illinois Iowa game. I lean Iowa slightly, but
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: they're looking like a public dog, which obviously I really
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: don't like that. And then I agree with I mean,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: I I side with Memphis against FAU. I don't know
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: if it's in agreement at this point because those percentages
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: have shifted. Okay, Merrimack at Saint Peter's, I guess we'll
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: talk about because they did talk about these teams the
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: other day. I apologize. I got Cianna wrung. Cianna put
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: themselves in a massive hole in that game, and they
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: almost climbed out of it, but they were never gonna
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: cover as a favorite. The market agreed with me on Sianna,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: but did not turn out that way. This Merrimack team
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: playing well in the matt Ac But Merrimack is now
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: coming off a nice road win, underdog upset win. They're
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: going on the road again to face Saint Peter's and
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: up next. Look at this run that Merrimack has next.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: They got Quinnipiack, Maris, and Iona all coming up after
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: Saint Peter's here, So that's a big run. Although I'm
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: not gonna say they're necessarily gonna overlook Saint Peter Saint
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Peter's because Saint Peter's is right behind them, But Quinnipiac
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: is a huge game up next man, so you could
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: definitely argue there's a little bit of a look ahead there.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: And for Saint Peters, of course, we did fade them
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: here on the show. In their last game they lost
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: to the Mount Saint Mary's, so he got that correct.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I thought that was a Sandwich spot, and part of
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: the reasoning behind that also met They would show up
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: for a game against Merrimack, which I think they will.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Merrimack' a top the conference, So if I was gonna
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: play this game, I would lean towards Saint Peter's. I
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: think Merrimack will take their first conference loss here. If
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: I were to guess Saint peter Years is up from
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: one and a half to two here, it's gonna be
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: a low scoring game, like these Merrimack games always are.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: One hundred and twenty nine and a half is the total,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: but you're basically just trying to pick the winner here.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Eighty percent of the tickets, ninety six percent of the
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: cash on Saint Peter's. The money agrees with Saint Peter's no, fuck,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: fuck you, Jeffrey. No, the Bears are absolutely lucky, dude.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: They won like seven games by one score. Anybody who
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: saw any of that game yesterday knows they were lucky
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: as fuck. They're a fucking lucky team. They're not winning
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: with skill. Caleb Williams was terrible in the game. As
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: I already said, they're ass They're absolutely a fucking fraud.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: They're not winning the next game that like, that's just definitive.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: They're not good. Like this is so obvious to anybody
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: that watches this team. They're the most fraudulent team in
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: NFL history. They're not winning the Super Bowl ever with
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams. It's not happening this deep. Their defense is
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: like a bottom five defense. The offense isn't even good.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: They're getting destroyed in these games and then somehow winning
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: them anyway, Like last night, if Green Bay does one
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: smart thing, they put the game away, and they failed
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: to do that repeatedly. It's like the fucking I don't
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: even know what it is. It's not even like the
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: Patriots under Belichick or anything, because at least with that
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: team they had a good defense. This isn't even that
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: and well, I guess Tom Brady whatever Kill Williams is
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: not him. No, the Bears are not winning a Super
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Bowl anytime. In the interview, the Bears are gonna be
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be the prime team total season win total
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: under next year. You should absolutely put money on their
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: win total under next year because it's gonna come out
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: at like nine and a half and people are gonna
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: all flock to the over it. They're basically the Washington
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Redskins from last year. That's who they are. Washington came
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: from out of nowhere. Oh yeah, all right, and now
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: you think this team is good even though they're defense blows.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: Dick and their quarterback probably does as well, not Jaydon Daniels,
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: but in this case Caleb Williams. No, they've overperformed unbelievably
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: this year. They're gonna have a massive regression next year.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: They might, dude, they're gonna be Washington next year. They
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: might not even get to six seven wins next year.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: This team blows except for their coach. So good luck
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: to them against the Philadelphia Eagles in the in the
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: next round. Here, good luck when they're facing a defense
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: that's even better than Green Bays and is not missing
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: their best player like Green Bay is well best player Parsons.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know. The dude needs like an epidural before
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: he plays every game, or he did before he went
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: down Northern Kentucky at Green Bay. I'm gonna point out
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: because Northern Kentucky has the way better record here, but
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: they're not favored by much. Man. I mean, it looks
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: kind of easy to play Northern Kentucky in this game.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: I think I would probably lean to green Bay Northern Kentucky.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, it's not really that much
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: of a situational play. I just thought the line looked
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit strange on this because Green Bay has
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: been pretty bad. But maybe Doug Gottlieb is doing something
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: with this team because they've actually won three games in
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: a row now, which kind of surprised me. Green Bay's
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: coming from out of nowhere. So I don't know, I
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: kind of lean to Green Bay in this game. I
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: don't really have much of a situational reason to do so.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: But Northern Kentucky eighty two percent of the tickets, ninety
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash. On Northern Kentucky, they're minus
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I don't know. I mean, I
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: just when I went through the games that one kind
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: of it looked weird to me for some reason. I
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: don't know, maybe just because I'm completely out of it
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: right now. But no, we have to stop saying that
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: these teams just because they're winning, that they're actually like good,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: or that they're not lucky teams or whatever. Like, Yeah,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: there are teams that repeatedly get lucky, and this is
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: one of those situations, and you have to be able
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: to identify that the Chicago Bears, because that's how you
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: identify teams that are gonna be overvalued and whatever, and
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: teams that you should fade in the market, and they
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: are obviously one of them. In North Texas at Wichita State,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: North Texas is coming off three pretty big games in
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: a row where they lost by nine at Memphis. They
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: beat Tulsa, delivering Tulsa I think, only their second loss
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: of the season and looks like it sent them spiraling Tulsa,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: and then North Texas played close against South Florida the
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: next game. Those three teams are all pretty good in
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: the conference. Now they got to go on the road
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: to face Wichita, who's I think pretty underrated. Right now,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: Wichita is just kind of sitting down there near the
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: bottom of the conference, nobody paying its ention to them,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: and North Texas has Tulane up next, and they're in
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: the driver's seat in the conference right now. So I
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: think this is kind of a Sandwich spot here. I
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: like Wichita in this game, and it's also a really
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: like the line looks so weird, right Like, why is
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: Wichita favored by almost seven points here when they're nine
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: and seven in North Texas is ten and six. The
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: line looks ridiculous. Well, the oddsmakers are telling you Wichita
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: is really really under the radar right now and a
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: lot better than the record looks. And Wichita is also
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: coming up losing at home to Rice, which is a
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: really ugly loss, so you gotta think maybe they were
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: even looking ahead. You got to expect a bounce back
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: from Wichita here. So I like Wichita a lot in
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: this game, and I almost wanted to make this a play,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: although the market looks like it's kind of disagreeing with me.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: It's up down from seven and a half to seven,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the tickets seventy one percent of
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: the cash on Wichita. What I'm really worried about is
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: the total. The total has gone up, but it's still
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: a very low one thirty one and a half North
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Texas and both of these teams like to play it slow,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: especially in North Texas, so I'm worried about this being
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: one of those slow grinding games where no team is
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: really gonna be able to get margin. That's what worries me.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: But if I was gonna play it, I would lay
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: it with Wichita, and this was close to being a
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: play for me. You know, it's on ESPNU in the afternoon.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: It's tempting. I'll stay away, though, But ken bum as
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Wichita almost cracking the top one hundred, believe it or not,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: and he has Wichita as the unluckiest team in all
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: of basketball, literally three hundred and sixty five, three hundred
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: and sixty fifth out of three hundred and sixty five
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: man Wichita State is the most undervalued team in college
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: of basketball according to Ken Pum. So there you go.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Although it is a concern that they're not good defensively,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: though they're a little bit better offensively. So North Texas
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: in this game is the better defense getting points. And
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: you know me, sometimes I do like to look that
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: way better defense getting points, but situationally, I think it
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: sets up pretty well for Wichita and Wichita generally, I
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: think is a very undervalued commodity that's gonna be overlooked.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: There's a reason why they're a seven point favorite here,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: But in a spot like in a matchup like this,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: worry about the x's and o's in a matchup like that,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: So that's the concern there. Wright State and Oakland should
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: be a good game in the horizon on ESPN two.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: These are two teams that are right at the top
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: of the conference. They're both one loss teams in the conference.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Right State just kind of had a scare at Detroit.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Although this is going to be their third straight road game,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: which isn't easy, but they should show up focus after
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: they almost lost to Detroit. Oakland is coming out of
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: an easy win over Cleveland State, which I already mentioned,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: so they should be in a good position to play
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: well in this game as well. They're staying at home,
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: which makes it a little bit easier for them in
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: a way. The money is coming on a Right State.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with that. Oakland's a four and
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: a half point favor here, fifty percent of tickets and
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the cash on right. I don't mind
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: the right State side there, just because I think they're
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: coming off that game. It was an uglier performance that
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I think is just gonna seriously focus them in this game.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: But travel wise, it's worse for State in the game.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati at UCF. Yeah, this game is it's it is
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: interesting ESPN two five PM. I think both of these
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: teams like to play fast, but and I think actually
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: both of them. Let me see what you see F does,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: because I know Cincinnati is extremely lopsided, like they played
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: good defense and they're terrible offensively. You seef is kind
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: of the opposite. Actually, you SEEF is the actually, yeah,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: you see F is the more typical like fast BASD
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: team where they're better offensively than defensively. And you see
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: F as a pretty lucky team. It's seventy seventh in
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: luck according to kem Pum excusally, whereas Cincinnati is the
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: third unluckiest team. So we just talked about the luckiest team.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is three hundred and sixty third according to kempom.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: So ken Bum is telling you there might be some
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: value in Cincinnati, and I agree with Cincinnati in this game.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: This is not on my card, but Cincinnati is coming
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: off a loss to West Virginia, not a great loss.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I mean you can kind of predict that. I think
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: do we have we might have had West Virginia in
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: that game. I think I did. I think I gave
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: out West Virginia in that game. West Virginia, I mean
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: they're a slowdown team. Man. They ugly it up. They
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: have North Texas's former coach. They played really ugly. Cincinnati
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: had come off a big game against Houston the game
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: before then, they had UCF on deck, so that was
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. So part of that handicapping process that
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati should be focused on UCF here, and I think
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: they will be. Also, UCF plays fast, which is what
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati wants to do. West Virginia does not do that
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: and neither does Houston, so it should be a game
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: that's more to Cincinnati's liking. They should show up focus
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: because there was an ugly game against West Virginia, and
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: part of that handicap is that they already would be
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: focused on UCF. UCF is coming into this having lost
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: a long win streak. They hadn't lost since the second
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: game of the season. They faced a pretty easy schedule.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: This is a win for us on the show too
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: with Oklahoma State, they got the win for us here.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: UCF was in I think they were in a letdown
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: spot because they had just played Kansas. They beat Kansas
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: the game before that. That was a big win for UCF,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: so I think they were in letdown mode after that. However,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: this might be a situation where they lose the game
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: twice effectively, because when you lose a long win streak
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: like this, man, it can hand you over. They got
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Kansas State up next. Will they pay more attention to
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: Kansas State. I don't know, because Kansas State has been
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: awful this year, so it's not really a look ahead.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: But it could be one of those like hangover spots
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: from taking your first loss in a long long time.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: So I like Cincinnati in this game. It's it's not
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: on my card, but that is what I would do
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: in this game. I would take the points. The money
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: seems to agree on this one. UCFS three and a
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: half maybe four in this one. Ninety two tickets, eighty
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on them. Very heavily public actually,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: because I think they're still ranked as well, and Cincinnati isn't. Yeah,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I have anything else to say
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: about that. I would take the points of Cincinnati. It's
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: one of my stronger opinions of the day as well,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: so that one almost makes a card. I like Cincinnati,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: I like Wichita. So there's that information for you. Next
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: up is my other play. I told you this is ugly.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: It is really ugly.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be on Rutgers plus the points against Northwestern
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: on Peacock at five pm. This is a sandwich spot.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: The Northwestern is in. Man. Northwestern is coming off a
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: game against Michigan State on the road. They lost by ten,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: but if you dig into this box score, Northwestern was
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: in this game. Man. Northwestern was winning the game at halftime.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: They're winning pretty deep into the second half. They fell
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: behind by a bit and then they clawed their way
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: back into the game and they were only losing this
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: game with two minutes left in the game. So Northwestern
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: played the full game. Man. It was a full effort
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: against a physical Michigan State team. Northwestern didn't go away.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: So that was a monster game. Now they got to
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: go to Rutgers and play this pretty atrocious Rutgers team
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: and play slow again. Is that really what they're gonna
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: want to do? I don't know, probably not. And look
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: who Northwestern plays next, Illinois, which is not only a
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: ranked team and one of the best teams in this conference.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: But that's also a rivalry because both teams are in
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: the Chicago area, so that is a huge rivalry game.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: Those teams do not like each other at all, so
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: that is a monster game that they have to play
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: on Wednesday, and then they play Nebraska after that. So
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: this is a sandwich. It's a Sunday afternoon sandwich here
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: for you man. For Rutgers. Rutgers is coming off losing
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: to that Illinois team on the road, getting absolutely blown out.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Now Rutgers is coming back home, and Rutgers has been
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: better at least at home in conference play so far.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: They lost by seven at home to Ohio State. They
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: beat Oregon, who I know, isn't that good, But Rutgers
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: still playing more competitively at home. And then they lost
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: at home against Purdue by sixteen. But I mean that's
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: not a horrible loss. Obviously, Purdue is pretty much an
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: elite team, So Rutgers is better at home. I think
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: they're gonna show up for this one. Nobody wants to
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: get blown out eighty one to fifty five by anybody.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: So I think they're gonna be happy. They're gonna to
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: be back home. They're gonna focus on Northwestern. Northwestern is
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: in a horrible spot. Rutgers is the play here. The
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: money is disagreeing with me, at least for now, sixty
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: two percent of the tickets eighty nine percent of the
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I don't understand it. Northwestern is the
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite here. And yes, obviously
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: I know Rutgers is bad, There's no question about that.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: Ken Bum has them at one sixtieth. He has them
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: as a lucky team too, which I worry about. But
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: they're actually a little bit better defensively than offensively at
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: the very least, and we're asking him to cover is
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: an underdog here. They play slow, so I like that
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Northwestern also plays slow, although not as slow. And Northwestern
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: is actually the second unluckiest team in the whole country.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: And yes, that usually means you don't want to fade them,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I know, but sometimes Ken Bump's not like everything that
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: you look at here is is not gonna line up
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: Man in every situation. And yes, I know Northwestern's the
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: better team overall obviously, and we just saw like we
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: have the three unluckiest teams according to Ken bumb All
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: playing today, which is crazy. But the spot is just
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: horrible for Northwestern here. So Rutgers is the play there.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: And then the board finishes with another big ten game
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: on Peacock that's gonna be overlapping with that one. So
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Peacock has both of these games. Ohio State at Washington.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Ohio State is already out on the West Coast. They
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: just beat Oregon, where I thought that was a difficult
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: spot for Ohio State. Man, I'm surprised that they won
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: that game. I almost wanted to make a play on
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Oregon in that one. Oregon really not very good. Ohio
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: State had played close against Nebraska the game before then,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: and they had to go out to the Pacific Coast
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: and they won. Anyway, Now they're at least adjusted to
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast now, But I don't know how much
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: focus Ohio State's gonna have on Washington. They played Ucla
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: after they come back home. That might be a little
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: bit of a look ahead and maybe a bigger game
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: because Ucla has that name recognition. Washington hasn't been playing
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: that well, and Washington did just lose at Purdue, but
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: that was a tough game. Nobody wins at Purdue except
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: for Iowa State. Washington played well in that game, though
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: they played them to within eight. So in that respect,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Washington is coming off kind of a tough game. Although
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: if you look into that box score, though, Washington was
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: pretty much done in that game. Look, they were down
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: double digits going to the wire there in that game.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: So you know, I think Washington probably will get up
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: for this game, I would guess because that game. Again,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna be in a hangover spot
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: because that game wasn't quite as close as it looked
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: like on the scoreboard. So I will lean with the
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: market in this winter it's Washington. It's a slight lean
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: for May. Fifty eight percent of the tickets, fifty five
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash in Ohio State. Ohio State a
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: dreaded public underdog, so I think you're gonna get Washington
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: at least is a little bit of an anti public
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: favorite in that one, at the very least. But we
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: got my two plays there that I think are the
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: best situational angles. And then, like I said, my other
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: opinions that I do like are Cincinnati and Wichita. I
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: like those two games NHL. Yeah, I don't think it's
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: that big of a game for the Bruins. I think
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: the Bruins are gonna lose. I mean, there's it's pretty
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: much guaranteed they're gonna lose. Yeah, yesterday's game was bigger
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: for the Bruins. Man, That's just all there is to it.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is still a paper tiger NHL. We have New
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Jersey at Winnipeg is the first game up. This is
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: probably the game actually liked the best. Well maybe not
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Washington Nashville might be. Those two games are probably the
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: ones that I have a stronger opinion on, But I
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: don't like either one enough to make a play. New
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: Jersey Winnipeg is on NHL Network at two pm. New Jersey.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: They're not playing well right now. Man. They just lost
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: four to one at Pittsburgh. And what I thought was
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: gonna be a spot where New Jersey would show up
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: coming off a nine to nothing loss, you gotta expect
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: the team is gonna bounce back from that. It didn't happen.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: If you look at this game. Statistically, New Jersey probably
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: should have won the game. Like what happened in this game,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: I have no idea, Like the statistics don't bear out
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: a four to one loss at all. The teams had
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: the same amount of shots. New Jersey was the way
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: more physical team twenty five to ten and hits Pittsburgh.
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: The Pussy Penguins back at it, not being physical at all.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: And New Jersey also won the face off battle fairly significantly.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: By the way, the face off battle in that game
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: we lost last night was unbelievable. Vancouver lost a face
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: off battle like seventy percent. Yeah, look at that shit.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: How do you lose seventy percent of faceoffs in a game? Man,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know how that happened in that game last night.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: I'm pissed. Still awful, But anyway, New Jersey they were
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: better than they looked in that game against Pittsburgh. Winnipeg
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: is coming into this though, maybe with some newfound momentum
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: because they finally won a game. They clabber the Kings. Surprisingly,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: it was on a back to back off of playing
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Edmonton pretty close, and it was without hellabook and nets,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: so go figure. Hella book should be back for this game,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: and maybe maybe Winnipeg has some new momentum in this one, man,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: because when you break a long losing streak like this,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: it'll like get that monkey off your back and you'll
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: play better a lot of times. So I think both
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: teams are actually gonna show up in this game. So
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: this is actually one of those games where I actually
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: might think an un might actually be worth a look
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: in this game. Jeffrey, eighty three percent of the tickets
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: are on the over ninety three percent of the cash,
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: but totals at five and a half, which is one
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: of the lower totals, just although it's almost six, it's
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: not one of the higher totals that you'll see in
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: the NHL. Do I think an under might make sense
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: in this game? I also lead in New Jersey slightly
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the tickets seventy eight percent of
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: the cash on New Jersey just because they looked misleadingly
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: bad based on the score of their last game. I
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be the angrier team coming into this
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: one of the Winnipeg might have that new momentum, like
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: I said, But yeah, sixty three percent of tickets seventy
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on the Devil's Winnipeg is
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: a minus one twenty five favorite, though, which is also
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: one reason I kind of don't love New Jersey here
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: because you look at the team's records and it's like,
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: how could Winnipeg be a favorite? Right, So the oddsmakers
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: are telling you these teams were almost evenly matched for
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: the most part there. Pittsburgh at Boston. The setup for
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: this game is just way better Pittsburgh, even though you know,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: I keep saying Pittsburgh is not that good. They're a
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: very streaky team. I'm not really impressed by this streak
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: they went on where some of their wins are just whatever.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: They beat Chicago, they beat Columbus in overtime, New Jersey.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: New Jersey looks like they haven't figured it out now.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh just lost to Calgary yesterday, and you had that
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: broken wind streak for Pittsburgh. So I talk about when
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: you lose a wind streak, sometimes you'll be hung over
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: into the next game. They are having to travel for
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh to Boston back to back. Bruins are on a
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: back to back as well, but they're staying at home.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the travel spot. I guess it is a
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: little bit better for the Bruins. Pittsburgh will be coming
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: of an ugly loss. Though Pittsburgh is playing a third
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: game in four days now. They do have Tampa Bay next,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: so I don't know if that's gonna be a look
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: ahead or not. Possibly, so there are maybe are some
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: reasons to like Boston here, but the main reason to
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: not like them at all is because the Bruins had
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: a historic game yesterday. It's one of their rivals. I'm
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: telling you, the Rangers are a bigger game for the
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: Bruins than Pittsburgh is. The Rangers. They're New York team,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: They're an Original six team. It's a huge game for
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. The Bruins just embarrassed them ten to two yesterday.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: And the Bruins are also on the back to back,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: playing three games in four days as well. Yeah, the
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Bruins are staying at home. But yeah, I don't know, man.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: I mean the fact that they're coming off a ten
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: goal outburst and they're gonna have Corpus, Salo and net
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: here instead of swaymen, so that is a step down,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: of course. Although they won the last game with Corpus
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Salo and net Yeah, I mean, I don't love the
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Bruins in this spot. Any team that just put up
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: ten goals, it's like such a rare occurrence that I
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: don't think you want to look to play that team
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: in the next game. And that was just absurd. I
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: was gonna say I thought they scored like seven goals
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: in one period, but that wasn't the case. It went
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: three to four to three, but that's still absolutely outrageous.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: They had seven goals before the third period. Even I
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: think maybe that was the stat that I saw that
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: maybe that was the first time the Bruins had ever
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: done that. I don't know what it was, but I
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: mean I put the game on late in the first period.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: It was two to one, which so it looked like
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: it was kind of an ordinary game. Yeah, it was
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: an insane game for the Bruins, though, I mean, it's
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: not a situation where I'd want to play the Bruins
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: after that. I don't love Pittsburgh by any means either.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: The money is saying Pittsburgh, I'll slightly agree with that,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: but I don't love it. The oddsmakers are still telling
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: you the Bruins are not good if they're a home
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: underdog against Pittsburgh, who the odds makers don't like. The
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers don't like Pittsburgh either, but they're really shitting on
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. Fifty tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh minus one fifteen favorite there. I'll slightly lean
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: that way as well, but I don't like the game
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: at all. Really. Washington at Nashville, Man, this is gonna
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: be like an hour and a half show. Fuck. I
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: thought it was gonna be shorter. It's a short board
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: and we haven't even gotten to the NBA, which is
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: one of the bigger portions of the day. Washington just
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: won five to one at Chicago. This is a game
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: where we have a common previous opponent, Washington now going
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: to Nashville coming off a satisfying win, and Washington does
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: have Montreal next, so it is possible they have more
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: focus on that game because Montreal has been pretty good.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: Nashville also just played Chicago, and whereas Washington, I think
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: one at Chicago, right, five to whatever it was. Nashville
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: lost at home to them, Yeah, five to one. Nashville
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: lost at home three to nothing to them, although it
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: was yesterday. So yeah, Nashville's on a back to back,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: and Nashville does have Edmondson up next, and they did
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: just lose six to two at Edmonton. So will they
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: look ahead? I think they won't because Washington is still
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: a pretty big game coming off a shutout loss. I
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: think it does make sense towards Nashville here. People are
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: gonna look at this and think it's easy to play
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: Washington because, oh if Washington could crush Chicago on the
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: road and then Chicago beat Nashville at home easily, this
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: is obvious, right you play Washington here? It doesn't work
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: that way. I lean in Nashville in this one. However,
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it doesn't agree with it. Washington
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: is actually starting to look like an anti public road favorite.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: As insane as that sounds. How could the public be
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: on Nashville makes no sense. Sixty five percent of the
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: tickets and cash on Nashville, Washington's up to minus one
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: forty eight for minus one forty five. I don't understand that.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: I lean Nashville slightly in that game, but I don't
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: want to get involved. I don't have any hockey today
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: and it probably is gonna be a noon in net
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: for for Nashville today, although they did win his last
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: two games, so we'll see Kasarrow's played yesterday. Columbus at
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: Utah don't have much of a field for this game.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Columbus is coming off getting blown out by Colorado four
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: it to nothing, but they're on a back to in elevation.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Played two straight games in elevation with no break is
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: not easy, man, And they're playing a third game in
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: four and a is in a fourth game in six days,
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: all in different cities. So even though they're gonna try
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: to salvage a game on the road trip, Greeves should
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: be back in net he got the rest yesterday. It's
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: still a pretty difficult travel spot for Columbus at the
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: very least, man, even though it could debatably be a
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: bounced back spot where they should have some focus. Utah
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: just beat Saint Louis at home. Don't really know they're
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: gonna have a full focus staying at home against Columbus.
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: This is not really a letdown spot either. They play
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: Toronto next, which I'm not really sure is that much
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: of a look ahead either. The market is saying Columbus
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the tickets are on Utah fifty
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Columbus. Utah up to
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: a minus one to eighty favorite here. I don't really
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: have much of a reason to disagree with Columbus in
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: this one, except that the travel spot is pretty ugly,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: so I'm staying away, and Utah has more rest as well,
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: I believe because they didn't play yesterday, I don't believe.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: So that's those are my thoughts on that. Not a
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: ton of thoughts on that game, really, but market is
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: saying yeah, Columbus. I mean, I guess again, I'll slightly
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: agree with it just because that's what the market says,
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: but don't have a strong feel for it at all,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: and the market could change, of course. Vegas at San Jose.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: Vegas is starting a road trip and they just beat
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, so they're coming into this road trip with
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: momentum where I don't think Vegas will be overconfident, although
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: they aren't a back to back. They beat Saint Louis yesterday,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: but travel from Vegas to San Jose that's not a
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: long trip really, so I think they are starting the
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: road trip with some focus, at least with some momentum
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: San Jose also played yesterday, and look at what they
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: did yesterday. They beat Dallas in overtime. That was a
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: huge win for San Jose. Man, So even though they
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: should show up for Vegas, especially because they lost seven
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: to two at Vegas back on December twenty third, likely
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: they'll try to show up, but they're gonna have to
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: put in this huge jet for two games in a row,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: and I just think that's gonna be difficult for San
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Jose to really accomplish that. So I do like Vegas
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: in this game. I don't want to make it a
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: play or anything, but yeah, the market agrees with Vegas
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: in this one. They're down for minus one seventy to
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty five on the money line, seventy nine
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them, seventy one percent of
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: the tickets on San Jose. So San Jose's looking like
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: a public dog in this game, which sounds insane. But
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: San Jose actually is more wins than losses, even including
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: overtime losses, which is crazy. But Vegas Vegas actually does not.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Vegas actually is more loss is just a ton of
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: them are in overtime. Vegas are the overtime kids. Man,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: it's it's insane to think about it. But yeah, I'm
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: that's what's going on in that game. I think the
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: spot is better for Vegas though. Vegas, Yeah, they've beaten
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: San Jose twice. I put more stock into the recent
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: blowout win that Vegas had against them, because when it's reason,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: you kind of remember it and then you remember what
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: went wrong and you can kind of adjust to it.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: So there is that. But I still like Vegas in
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: this game, Like, how does San Jose put in another
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: effort after beating Dallas in overtime last night? You know
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be extremely difficult for them to do that
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: in this game. So let's go to the NBA. I
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: actually have three NBA plays, Like I said, hopefully I'm
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: gonna be right about all three. How about that? I
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: think the market agrees with all three. I'm scrolling through
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: quickly right now. Let me say, does it I forget
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: what my third Yeah, the market is agreeing with all three.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: I was like, I forget what my third play is.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: You guys can try to guess what they are in
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: this one. All right, NBA, we do have some afternoon
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: NBA New Orleans is at Orlando, New Orleans might have
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: some new momentum here because they just finally got a
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: win against Washington. They're not gonna be overconfident, but that
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: broke another long lost streak that New Orleans had. They
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: had n't won for a long time, not since December
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: twenty second, so they finally got to win. I think
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: that'll break their losing momentum. I think they will show
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: up for a game against Orlando. Now, Orlando, it might
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: be more questionable the spot that they're in. Orlando did
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: just lose to Philadelphia by double digits, so you think, well,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: maybe they should bounce back here. But how much focus
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: will they have a New Orleans when Orlando has to
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: go in the middle of this week. They have to
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: go Thursday Sunday. They're gonna be playing Memphis in Berlin.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: I yeah, they're going to Germany, the Germans. I hate
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: this shit, man, I hate the europe shit, the international shit.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: It throws everything off. Although it gives us some handicapping
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: angles to look at where that could make this a
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot for Orlando here. So I think it
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: is at least some sort of negative for Orlando that
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: they might have to look ahead to that, even though
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: it is against Memphis, which is not exactly the biggest opponent.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: But if we look at what Orlando's doing here in
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: this game, I think the market Reid is agreeing with
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: me on the Pelicans here. I lean Pelicans magic or
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: six and a half point favorite. Eighty one percent of
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on the Magic, only sixty nine percent
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: of the cash, so they're a public team less of
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: the money on them. I agree with New Orleans in
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: that one, but it's not a strong opinion. The other
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: team involved in that look ahead spot is where where
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be here fading that team? I should say,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know where SOB is, but I'm pretty much
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: gonna guarantee he's gonna agree with this. We're gonna be
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: on the Brooklyn Nets plus seven and a half against Memphis.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn's coming off getting pretty much wrecked by the Clippers
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: by sixteen at home, so I think it might be
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: a good thing for them to just go out on
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: the road. And you can see that spot wasn't very
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: good because Brooklyn had just beaten Denver, which was a
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: win for us, on Sunday, and then they lost in
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: Old Time against Orlando, so they were coming into that
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: game against the Clippers off of two pretty big games, man,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: and then they just didn't have it against the Clippers.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: But now they're going out on the road coming off
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: a bad loss. I think that's a good thing. Leave home,
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: going on the road, usually you're gonna be focused to
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: start the road trip. I think they will be. Whereas
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: from Memphis. Look at the spot that Memphis is in.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Memphis just played on Friday against Oklahoma City and they
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: lost by one, and Memphis was winning this game. Dude,
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: if you see how this game played out, Memphis was
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: almost guaranteed to win this game. They were blowing They
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: were blowing Oklahoma City out in this game. Memphis had
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: a huge lead, like a double digit lead the whole game. Basically,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Memphis was winning this game by twenty points in the
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: second half. They were still winning the game by fourteen
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: with six minutes left, and they somehow lost. They were
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: winning by ten with three and a half left and
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: they lost the game. How do you possibly get back
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: up off the mat after that, man, After you were
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: annihilating the thunder or the elite team in the league,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: and it would have been playoff revenge for Memphis as well.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Because Memphis lost to the Thunder in the playoffs last
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: year and they still have not beaten them since then.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: And this is the third try at it, and this
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: is what happens, and they pretty much have okay, see
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: dead to rights, and they lose the games somehow unbelievably brutal.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: Now Memphis has to come up with that came and
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: play the Brooklyn Nets and then up next Yeah, they
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: got to go to Berlin and play Orlando twice, which
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be looking ahead to that game. Horrible,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: horrible spot for Memphis year. We're gonna be on the
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets. That's the play in this one. Seventy four
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are on the Grizzlies, fifty two
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the nets. And the Grizzlies,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: by the way, are still without Zach Edy, and they're
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: without John Morant, who's been out for I think a
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: few games at this point as well. So the Grizzlies
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: are shorthanded right now as well. Though I know I
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: keep saying Morant kind of negatively impacts chemistry when he's
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: in there, but it's a shorthanded Grizzlies team here, man,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: horrible spot for them. The total is actually fairly low
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: as well, at two twenty and a half, so taking
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: the points a little bit better looking with a lower
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: NBA total. There nets plus the points is the first
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: play there you can get that key number seven and
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: a half. Hold on a second while I'll scroll down
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: so you can look at the rest of the board. Here,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Rockets Kings. I think it's the last game on the board.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: I need to clear my signs is again, man, as
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: I usually do. I will beat back in a second.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: He's a bubble boy, a bubble boy, Yes, a bubble boy.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: What's a bubble boy? He lives in a bubble boy?
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: All right, let's do this. Yes, I have the bubble
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: boy drop now. Oh yeah, I should bring up I
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: should have more side, dude, you can have a Seinfeld
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: reference for everything. Man, the sniffling accountant or whatever. That's
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: what I should have a clip of that. All right,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia at seventy six ers, alright, Toronto. Here. This game
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: is kind of hard for me to figure out because
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: I kind of think both teams are going to show up.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: For if Philadelphia did just have a decent win at Orlando,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: now they are having to travel up to Canada through
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: custom here, so I don't know if that's gonna be
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit more difficult of a travel spot. Toronto
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: is coming off a loss at Boston, which that's probably
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: a more difficult game though, playing at Boston it's a
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: big game and they're traveling back home from that, so
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: I think the spot is a little bit worse for
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: Toronto because they are coming off that big game. Though,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: I think this is a game where both teams are
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: gonna want to try to show up for the money
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: is actually coming in on the Raptors, though I kind
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: of disagree. The Sixers are a four and a half
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: point favorite here, seventy three percent of the tickets on
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: the six Ers, sixty four percent of the cash coming
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: back on Toronto. I'm not sure that I love Toronto
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: coming off the Boston game, man, That's what I will say.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: Though Philadelphia did just have that win over Orlando again,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: which is a pretty decent win. You always have to
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: see who's in the lineup and who's out for Toronto
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: or excuse me for Philadelphia, although really it's just Embiid.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's always a game time decision. Philly looks
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: pretty healthy otherwise, Toronto looks pretty unhealthy. A barn is
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be a game time decision. That's a pretty big deal.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: Barrett has been out for a while. He looks like
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: he's coming back potentially tomorrow though, so that'll definitely help.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: I think Barrett is like one of the top few
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: scores that Toronto has, so they need him back at
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: some point. Yeah, I don't have that sixers song a
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: song as a drop, and maybe I should try to
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: make a drop out of it. I don't know, because
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: when I played it as the intro that day, was
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: playing the YouTube video, I think I just lost the
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: water bottle cap here in my microplastics. Yes, ten nine,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: eight seventy six ers, all right. People are high on
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: the on Philly. Yeah, they'll be in the playoffs playoffs,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: But that's all I can really say about that. I
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: think Philadelphia will make the playoffs and then lose. Seems
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: to be it seems to be what's gonna happen here.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: The Knicks are at Portland. The Knicks are already out
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: on the West Coast. I think the Knicks. Yeah, well,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: they took a loss at Phoenix, so they weren't quite
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: in the Pacific time zone. Yet that was a tough game.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: Though it was a five point loss. Phoenix is a
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: decent team. Now the Knicks are going up to Portland.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: I could see it going two ways, like either they'll
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: show up and try to get a win on this
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: road trip, or it'll be a little bit hung over
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: from a tough game against Phoenix. You got to try
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: to figure out which it'll be.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: For me.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit difficult to gauge that Portland could
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: be in the worst spot potentially here though, because they
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: just beat Houston twice. We lost the Zigzag, which was
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: kind of bullshit, as Houston had a double digit lead
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: with whatever six minutes to go in that game. I'm
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: pretty pissed Portland came back and got the win. Now
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Portland should show up for a game against the Knicks,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: but I think it's gonna be difficult man staying at home,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: coming up those two big games against one of the
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: best teams in their conference, the Western Conference. So I'll
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: slightly lean to the Knicks this one. The money seems
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: like it is on that side. They're up from four
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: and a half to four and a half with juice
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: seventy eight percent of tickets eighty three percent of the
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: cash or on the Knicks. And then for Portland, you
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: got to kind of keep your eye on the injury
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: situation here. Jeremy Grant looks like he's still out. Drew
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: Holliday is supposed to potentially come back today, we don't
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: know yet. He's questionable, So that's something to look at.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: If Holiday comes back after a long period of time off,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: that could actually hurt Portland a little bit when he
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: the first Like, I love Holiday, dude. He was great
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: when he was on the Celtics, really really good defensive guard.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: But again, I always talk about how that first game
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: back a guy, especially a guy that kind of runs
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: the offense, first game back after he hasn't been there
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: for so long, everybody's got to kind of figure out
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: their roles again, and it's kind of a transition process,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: so they have to trans themselves. It could be a
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: bit difficult that first game back, so you might want
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: to look to fade Portland that first game back, which
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: might be tonight. So see, but I'm leading to the
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: Knicks either way. And of course, if Holiday does come back,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: you'll probably get a little bit of a better number
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: on the Knicks because the line will probably move down
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit towards Portland. San Antonio is at Minnesota,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: and I was looking at this market and I disagree
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: with the market in this one. San Antonio just beat
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: the Lakers and the Celtics, and they beat the Celtics yesterday,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: my Boston Celtics in Boston, and now they're having to
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: travel with no time off, they get to travel from
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: Boston into Minnesota, into the flames, the rioting of Minnesota. Here.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: To me, it doesn't look like a very good spot, man,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: even though I know usually you're gonna get up for
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: a game against the Tea Wolves, But how do you
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: do that when you just beat the Lakers the Celtics
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: and you have the Thunder coming up on NBC, a
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: nationally televised game on Tuesday night. So I actually think
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: this is a sandwich spot that San Antonio is in.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: I don't like the spot, so I do lean to
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Minnesota in this game. It's just kind of a weird,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: crazy spot. And on the back to back like this,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: I think both teams might be on a back to back,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: but this is just kind of crazy. The travel that
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: is involved in this one and the wins that they're
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: coming off of I mean, the Celtics Lakers is the
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: longest standing rivalry man in the NBA. It's a major,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: major rivalry. It's and it's Onio. Just beat both of them,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: so yeah, and they're both good teams this year, So yeah,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't love how that spot sets up.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: But all Minnesota just played Cleveland twice, which I think
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: they played them yesterday, is yeah, they played them in Cleveland,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Minnesota is traveling back from Cleveland. That travel
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: leg is a little bit easier now they lost yesterday
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Cleveland zigzag. So I was correct about Cleveland yesterday getting
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: the adjustments made and beating Minnesota after they lost the
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: first game in Minnesota Minnesota, and now they lost a
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: four game win streak. So yeah, sometimes that will hang
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: you over. But obviously I don't see Minnesota not showing
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: up for a game against San Antonio. To me, I
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: think the spot sets up better for them. They're coming
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: off a double digit loss, they don't have a big
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: game next. It's against Milwaukee. I mean, Milwaukee I think
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: is still maybe being overlooked a little bit, even though
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: although I'm gonna fade that sentiment in a second but
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: they do have Giannis back, so I don't know. Milwaukee's
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: kind of a mystery right now to try to handicap,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: to try to handicap like what people think about them,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: because it's a miss. They're a mystery for everyone. Man.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: But I lean to the tea Wolves in this game.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: The money is totally disagreeing with that. They drop from
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: three to two and a half, fifty seven percent of
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: tickets on them, seventy seven percent of the cash coming
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: back in on the Spurs, so the money is on
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: the Spurs. The other thing you have to look at
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: in this game is the injury status, so that you
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: have to do that for every team like this will
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: it's a pretty it's a pretty clean injury report. But Minnesota,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: I believe they didn't play Anthony Edwards the other day AE,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: but I think it was a scheduled rest spot. I
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: let me see. Oh no, I'm wrong. He actually played
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: both games against Cleveland, all right, so he did play
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: in both games in the back to back. I'm pretty
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: sure san Antonio did play Wemby yesterday too, so both
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: teams are pretty sure did play their best players yesterday
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: on the back to back. But when Wemby came off
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: the bench, actually, but that's what san Antonio has been doing.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: They've been matching him up against for whatever reason, they've
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: been matching him up against other teams backups and he
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: just kind of dominates them. So actually that is actually
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: better for san Antonio though, because he only played twenty
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: six minutes and Anthony Edwards played like thirty five or whatever.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: So there is that at least for the Spurs. Although
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: the spurs other starters did play pretty much their full
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: complement of minutes, well kind of. They did actually have
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: three guys play some pretty deep minutes off the bench,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: so san Antonio they I think they are the deeper
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: team than the Tea Wolves though, so there is that.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: So all things to keep in mind. There although situations
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: that kind of lean Minnesota Slightlyami is at the thunder
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: here this game. I think both teams are going to
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: be showing up. Miami just lost in a blowout at
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: Indiana yesterday. They were probably looking ahead and yes it's
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: a back to back, but the good thing for Miami
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: is because of that postponed game against Chicago Memphis, excuse me,
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: Miami had three days off before the game yesterday, so
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't be really tired or anything like that. And
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: I think they were already looking ahead to Oklahoma City
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: because that was a horrible game against Indiana, and Miami
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: does have their full roster back, well sort of. They
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: have a hero and out of bio back here, so
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: you're getting basically Miami almost a full strength coming in here.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a decent spot for them, But
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: I don't think I would want to fade Oklahoma City
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: in the spot that they're in either though, where they
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: almost lost against Memphis and they came back and won,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: so that was definitely a scaal though they did, they
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: did have to put in a huge effort to get
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: that thing done. And Oklahoma City does have San Antonio
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: and Houston on deck, so that's a pretty big look ahead. Really.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: San Antonio actually is a huge look ahead for Oklahoma
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: City because that's the one team Oklahoma City can't beat
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: their own three against San Antonio and they get them
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: at home on NBC on Tuesday. So actually, yeah, this
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: is actually a huge look ahead spot for the Thunder.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: So even though they're coming off of bad performance and
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: a scare, I think if you play this game, you
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: have to lean towards the heat here. Sixty five percent
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: of the tickets are on the thunder, sixty percent of
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: the cash or on the heat, so the money agrees
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: with the heat. The Thunder down for fourteen and a
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: half to fourteen. I still don't love the idea of
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: fading the Thunder at home though, because they just dominate
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: at home. But that is a major look ahead for
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City though, so something to keep in mind there.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: I wish Oklahoma City was coming off like a huge
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: game or something instead of a game where they almost
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: lost to an inferior opponent, because then I'd probably be
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: on Miami here. But fading Oklahoma City at home is
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: also like taking your life in your hands. Even though
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: they've been a little bit worse at home recently, but
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: they have tended to dominate over the last couple of
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: seasons at home, winning by probably at least an average
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: of like sixteen points at home across the two seasons.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee at Denver is my next play. We're going to
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: take the Denver Nuggets plus the points. And I know
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: we're looking at Denver without Jokic obviously, which is why
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: we're getting them as an underdog. At home. I know
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: they haven't been that good at home. Ten and six.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: We're fading Milwaukee, who haven't been good on the road
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: really eight and twelve, although some of that was without
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: yan As. Sure he is back, but the Nuggets look
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: like they're basically gonna have their other guys playing. Aaron
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: Gordon I already saw he's playing. He's probable, so he
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: should play for Denver. And then Jamal Murray, you have
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: to look at is questionable, but I think if he
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: can go, he will probably go. So to me, it
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: looks like you're basically gonna get Denver except for Jokic.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: And yes, they've been without balance Unus for a while,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: which is not good. He's been out for I think
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: about a week now, so that isn't great. That they
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: lose Jokic and then they lose Jokic light as well,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: that's not great. But I like how the spot sets
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: up for Denver. Here Man Milwaukee, they're coming into this
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: game after beating La the Lakers on the road, Man,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: and they're finishing up a road trip. Here they're two
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: and one on the road trip. And yeah, I mean,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: like arguably you won't want to go, like even on
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: the road trip, and usually you're gonna be focused on Denver,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: but I don't know how much focus you put on
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: Denver when they're without their best player, without Jokich. Here
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee again coming up beating the Lakers. That's a big
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: road win for them. They do blame Minnesota and San
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: Antonio up next. I don't know if that's like a
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: look ahead or anything like that, but I think the
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: spot is actually positive for Denver because if you look
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: at the spot that they're in, we faded them in
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: their last game and they got blown out by Atlanta.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: And remember what I said about that game. That was
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: a return home spot for Denver from a long road trip.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: So it was a really bad spot for Denver coming
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: back home, having those distractions coming off of a long
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: time away from home. But it was also even worse
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: because they beat Boston in a huge comeback to finish
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: the road trip. That was a huge game for them.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: So they dropped the game to Atlanta badly. We got
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: a nice win on that one, easy win. But what
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: do I always say about the return home spot When
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: the team does really bad in that first game back,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: they tend to do a lot better the next game.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: Because it's like they have the stuff done that they
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: needed to get done at home, they get shocked back
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: into focus because holy shit, we just played bad in
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: that game. We got to play better here, guys. And
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: this is their last game on this quick home stand,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: so I think they will show up for this game,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: especially because Milwaukee does have Giannis now, so you're gonna
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: have more focus on them probably, And they go out
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: on the road next, but they're only playing the Pelicans
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: and the MAVs, so not really a look ahead spot
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: for Denver here, so I think they will have full
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: focus in this game against Milwaukee. So it's the combination
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: of Denver being in that second game back home of
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: a horrible loss. I like that. That's a positive. In Milwaukee,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: I think is in a bit of a negative spot here.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: The Bucks are two point favorites. As we could see now,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: it was two to two and a half, so either way,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: hopefully is all right. Fifty six percent of the tickets
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: and eighty five percent of the cash on the Nuggets.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: The market does look like it is agreeing with me
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: on the Denver side in that one. We got a
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: few more games here. The next one up is my
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: final play it is the Washington Wizards. We're on some
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: ugly dogs today, man plus fourteen and a half against
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: the Phoenix Suns. We're gonna do this one, even though
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: I know Washington just got Trey Young, and yeah, I
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: do worry about that, and I don't think he's played yet,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: and this might be his first game with them, so
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: you do have to worry about that a little bit.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: Let me see, let me make sure of that. Yeah,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: he didn't play, so I think he is probably gonna
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: suit up and play in this game. So that's one
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: thing you gotta worry about, because when a team gets
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: a star player like that his first game with them,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: it could be a bit of a chemistry issue and
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: you don't know what you're gonna get out of him.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: So actually, let's see if he's playing. Let me see, No,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: he's out. Actually, so all right, we don't even have
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: to worry about that he's not playing. Yes, that's better.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: We don't have to worry about the chemistry issue. Good,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: all right, which sets up maybe a nice fade of
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: Washington when he does play, so we don't have to
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: worry about that. Sweet all right, So we're getting Washington.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: It's just gonna basically become a normal handicap. And the
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: handicap is Washington just lost horribly to the New Orleans
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: Pelicans by twenty one at home. You can't really have
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: much of a worse loss than that. Man, Although I
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: told you the Pelicans were favored on the road there,
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: I kind of liked the Pelicans in that game. That
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: is a horrible loss for Washington. Though they've lost by
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: twenty plus in the last two games. I think they're
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: gonna show up for this one. Man, they're starting a
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: road trip. A lot of times you show up when
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: you start a road trip, but starting starting a road
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: trip is probably even better. When you've lost a couple
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: of games horribly at home, one of the best things
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: to do is just forget about it. Go on the
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: road for Phoenix. They just beat the Knicks. Man, that
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: was a huge win for Phoenix. And after this they
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: go on the road and they play Miami Detroit and
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: then the Knicks again. So those are all all three
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: of those are bigger games, even though they're all Eastern
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: Conference games. So is Washington. Oh yeah, and by the way,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: the Sun's already beat Washington by fourteen in Washington on
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: December twenty ninth. So we have a little bit of
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: a recent kind of zigzag type of spot setting up
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: here where maybe Washington will be able to make some
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: adjustments to that. The Phoenix just might not take Washington
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: seriously after that. That plusn't being a sandwich spot for Phoenix.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: We're on Washington here in this one. Phoenix has fifty
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: four percent of the tickets on them, but sixty seven
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Wizards. So there you go.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: That's that play. We are on the Wizards. We have
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: two more games, Atlanta at Golden State, two more in
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: the NBA. I should say Atlanta coming into this game
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: off of clobbering Denver. That was that game I just
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: talked about we got the win on that was a
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: monster win for Atlanta. Man, and now this might be
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: the first game or Atlanta has CJ McCollum man, So
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: that's somebody to keep in mind. He was the key
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: component that they got out of that Trey Young deal.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: Let's see, it looks like he's not gonna be in
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: the starting lineup though, so he might play. Let me see, yeah,
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: he hasn't played since the sixth let me see, don't
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: know I don't know, but it looks like he might play,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: but he's listed as not being a starter on the
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: depth chart, So that's not that bad for Atlanta. It
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: looks say they're gonna ease him in, so McCollum may play,
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: but he may come off the bench, which is less
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: of like a jarring chemistry thing. So that's not that
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: bad for Atlanta. But I still think the spot is bad, dude.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: I actually think this is a sandwich spot. Believe it
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: or not. I think Golden State, I mean, they're just
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: an old mediocre team at this point, and they're a
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: team you might overlook when you have it sandwiched in between,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: have them sandwiched in between Denver and the La Lake.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Atlanta plays the Lakers next, and they're coming
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: off the blowout win of Denver where they caught Denver
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: in a really bad spot for Denver as well, and
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: without Jokic. So I think it's a bad spot now
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: for Atlanta. And they looked probably too good in that
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: previous game. Golden State's just kind of hanging around at home.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: They just had an easy win over this god awful
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: Sacramento team. Golden State doesn't have this game surrounded by anything.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: So the setup to me looks a lot better for
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: the Warriors in this game. But the money is disagreeing
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: with this. I don't really understand why. I think if
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: you play this game, you gotta lay it with the
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: Warriors or just pass on the game. Eighty seven percent
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: of ticket seventy seven percent of the cash on the
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: Warriors though, and they dropped from six and a half
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: to six. I don't really understand that. As far as
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: the injury report is concerned for them, not really a
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: whole lot going on for the Warriors. For the Hawks,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: Porzingis is a game time decision. What else is new?
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: That's always the case. It's like he has some chronic
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: illness that always puts him on the injury report. And
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: then we finished with Houston and Sacramento. Houston might be
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: coming in with a little bit of anger man off
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: of these losses, the back to back losses to Portland.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: They do not want to go zero to three on
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: this road trip. I wouldn't imagine they play Chicago first
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: when they come back home, so I think they actually
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: might show up in this game against Sacramento. Sacramento is
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: coming off a blowout loss, though, like I said to
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: Golden State, But this Sacramento team, I mean, they are
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: pretty non competitive in a lot of these games, man,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: even though they'll probably try to show up for a
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: game against Houston. It's just I don't know, man, seems
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: not ideal when you might be getting a focus Rockets
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: team here. The Rockets are thirteen and a half point
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: road favorite the Kings. By the way, I didn't even
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: realize they did get Zach Levine back a couple of
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: games ago, and of course they lost in his first game.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: I think they have lost every game with him back.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: But at least for the Kings, they do have him back,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: They're still without some bonus. But this King's team is
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: a disaster, dude. I didn't even notice Levine was seventy
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: five percent tickets eighty percent of the cash on the Rockets.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: I actually think I would lay it with the Rockets
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play this game again. The NBA
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of a different animal, man. It's
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: not like the NFL, where you rarely want to lay
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: like I'll pretty much never lay points on the road
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: a double like I'll never lay a double digit point
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: spread on the road in the NFL, I should say,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: but in the NBA there are occasions where you might
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: want to because it's just a high scoring game, man,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: So it's a little bit easier for a road team
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: to win in a blowout like this. In the NBA,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: I would probably lay it with Houston in that game,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: I was gonna play it, all right, let's go to
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: the NFL. I'm gonna give you one NFL play here,
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: and I know it's it's one that we've lost some
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: value on. You probably probably already know what it is.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: The first game up in the NFL is Buffalo and
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville on CBS. This is a really hard game for
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: me to figure out. Man, Buffalo, they're coming into this
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: game off of pretty nice finished to the season where
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: they won whatever. This is five of their last six games,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: I think is what that is with the home loss
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: of Philadelphia. But look at their wins that they had, Man,
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: it's you know, it's a little bit question. I think
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: you can call some of this into question. They beat
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh on the road, and I actually forgot about that
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: game completely. If you remember, I think I said Buffalo
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: is the right side in that game. I think Pittsburgh
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: was in a bad spot for some reason or another
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: in that game, So that's not really that impressive of
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: a win. Buffalo beat Cincinnati after Cincinnati was beating them
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: in Buffalo in that game, and I know it was
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, and Joe Burrow is like the Buffalo kid
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: or whatever, like he goes into Buffalo just beats them
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: like every time he goes in there. But Buffalo got
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: really lucky to win that game, and they pulled a
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: win out of their ass in that game, and it
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: was basically because Borrow threw a couple of picks in
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: that game, I think, including a pick six. Then Buffalo
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: is losing to New England twenty one to nothing and
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: wound up beating them. So you could say, well Buffalo
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: has heart, man, they keep winning. Yeah, but I don't
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: know how impressive those wins are. In Cincinnati has a
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: really atrocious defense. A New England's defense is not that
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: good either, so I don't know, man, And the Buffalo
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: barely got by Cleveland, although yes, that was a bad
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: spot sandwiched in between New England and Philadelphia. Buffalo's offense
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: complete no showed against Philadelphia, very very strange. Although I
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: know Philly has a good defense, and then Buffalo finished
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: the season by beating the Jets. Okay, who cares, although
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: the Jets did it with Mitch Trabisky pretty much in there.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: But it's the Jets, man, I mean, come on, the Jets.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: Everybody just massacres the Jets. It's whatever. So I don't know, man,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: I think Jacksonville may have actually had a more impressive
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: finish to the season, even though they beat some bad
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: teams in year as well, including the Jets. But they
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: did beat Indianapolis twice, although I know it was. The
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: second time was Indianapolis with Philip Rivers, and Rivers almost
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: was able to somehow guide Indianapolis to a win there.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: The other time was the game where Daniel Jones went down,
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: but Jacksonville was crushing INDI in that game anyway, They
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: would have won that game anyway. They also had a
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: pretty impressive win against the Chargers thirty five to six.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: They did lose to Houston on the road in a
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: game where I think Jacksonville had a win. Had to
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: lead really late in that game, and it looked like
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville had that game put away. I don't know how
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: they lost that game, and they won at Denver, So
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, Jacksonville has had some more impressive
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: wins mixed in there, even though they've had some wins
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: against Cupcakes in there as well. I don't know. I
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: think Jacksonville might be a little bit overlooked in this game, man.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: The money kind of is indicating on the bills fifty
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: tickets fifty four percent of the cash on them. The
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: Jags flipped from a one point favorite at one point
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: dog to one and a half point favorite, though the
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: money like the line has been moving towards the Jags, man,
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: So take from that what you want to, but it
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: looks like the line has moved towards the Jags. I
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: slightly leaned to the Jags. And there also is not
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: good history with Buffalo and with Josh Allen playing on
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: the road and playing in Jacksonville, as Allen is only
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: playing in Jacksonville once and it was four years ago
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: in Jacksonville won. But I know that was when Allen
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: was younger and whatever. But Buffalo is pretty unfamiliar with
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: playing in Jacksonville. Man. The last couple of times they
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: played Jacksonville were London games, so they're not familiar with
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: this venue. So the venue familiarity I think could be
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: an edge to Jacksonville. Though of course it's gonna be
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: good weather. It's gonna be in Florida, it's gonna be
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: in the sixties. I think the weather is gonna be
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: pretty good in the games, so that that at least
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: doesn't hurt Jacksonville, because if Jacksonville was going into the cold,
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: we might be talking about a different story here. But
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: the weather should be good for both teams of them.
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: Maybe Buffalo doesn't play as well in warmer weather, I
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: don't know, but anyway, Buffalo, yeah, they don't have a
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: good history in Jacksonville really, or on the road in
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, Josh Allen has never won a road playoff game.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: I think he's like owned five or something like that,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: or maybe actually maybe even to eight. I don't know. No,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: that doesn't make sense because once you lose, you're out
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs. That can't be right. But I think
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: Buffalo has lost their last eight road playoff games or
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: something like that. And the craziest stat is that I
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: believe Buffalo has not won a road playoff game in
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: so I don't know if it's just to eight, but
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: Buffalo's not won a road playoff game in thirty three years,
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: so they have not wont to road playoff games since
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: whatever that is, like the early nineties, since like the
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: the Jim Kelly days, since Thurmot's Omas, since the days
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: were Buffalo was making the Super Bowl every year and
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: losing the Super Bowl every year. That was the last
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: time Buffalo won a road playoff game. So I kind
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: of like the Jags man. The narrative seems to just
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: be all about Josh Allen, and nobody's really talking about
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: the Jags. Everybody's kind of talking about, Oh, the field
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: is opened this year, and if Josh Allen doesn't do it,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: then we may have to consider him to not be
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: an elite quarterback whatever, because he doesn't have to go
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: through Mahomes. He doesn't have to go through who is
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: the other quarterback? Who else is out of the playoffs
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: in the AFC. I forget, Chiefs are obviously out. He
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: doesn't have to go through the Ravens, you know, I
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: forget who else is out that's usually in in the AFC.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean that's basically what people are talking
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: about here. Oh the field is clear for Josh Allen
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: this year. He doesn't have to go through those, so
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: he he should win, right, So that's what people are
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: talking about him. You know, if the Bills get through
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: this game, I think the Bills do have a decent
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: shot to do it. But this is not gonna be easy,
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: and X is and O's wise. I think the Bills
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: are at a disadvantage here too, because Jacksonville has the
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: better defense and nobody's talking about their defense because Jacksonville's
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: been scoring a ton, but their defense is good. And
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: not only is their defense good, Jacksonville has a really
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: good run defense. They're like a top five run defense.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: And the Bills, even though they have Josh Allen, the
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: Bills actually run the ball. They're a run first offense,
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: and the run sets up the pass for Buffalo James Cook.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: Actually I believe overtook John at the tailor to lead
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: the league in rushing yards this year. So the Bills
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: like to run the ball and they're gonna potentially struggle
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: to do that against this Jags defense. And the Jags
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: they run the football well offensively with atn and the
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: Bills are bad at stopping the run. The Bills they're
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: not good defensively, dude, They're better defensively against the pass
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: and against the run, but the Jags like to run
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: the ball as well, so I think this matchup is
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: not very good for the Bills. So long long analysis
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: is there for me to say that I slightly lean
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: to Jacksonville in the game, but I do not have
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: that strong of an opinion on it. The game that
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: I will give out is a play and I jumped
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: on this like a couple of days ago. But you know,
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know the line's a little bit higher,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: but you better get this below a touchdown, man, because
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: we're going with the Eagles. We're gonna lay the points.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: I found it at five and a half. I wish
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: I just should have just I thought it right away
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: at three and a half, man, And yeah, this this
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: may or may not be a game that I actually
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: did put a little bit of money on. Where As
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: I said, my money's not liquid right now. So I'm
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: not actually a full throttle betting like I had been,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: probably well full throttle, being that I was actually betting
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: all the games that I talk about up until I
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: got fired unexpectedly and wasn't in a position to wasn't
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: in a position to fund this thing. The whole way.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: But I do like the Eagles in this game. Wish
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: we got it at the opener of three and a half,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: but they're already up to six. I mean, there has
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: been some serious money coming in on the Eagles here,
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the cash on them, fifty four
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on the forty nine ers. Generally,
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: this is an offense versus defense game, and I know
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: I don't like to lay points with the better defense,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: and that is the Eagles of course here, but in
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: this case, I think it might be warranted. Yes, the
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: Eagles are the better defense. Yes, their offense has looked
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: pretty miserable at times, but they should be able to
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: do something offensively against a Niners defense that's actually not
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: very good. The Niners have been without their best two
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: players on defense for basically the whole season, and I
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: know they keep winning, but the Niners. You remember, I
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: gave the Niners out over their season win total. That
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: was one of my win totals. I got all three
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: of my win totals correct. The Niners were the only
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: one I went over because I went under with the
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Redskins. Why did I do that with
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers. Why was that one of my
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: plays or one of my suggestions of the very least, Well,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: the Niners had the easiest schedule in football, at least
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: to start the season. It didn't wind up that way
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: based on what the teams actually were, but the forty
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: nine Ers still had one of the easiest schedules in football.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: So the Niners faced pretty easy schedules. Still, their defense
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: is in shambles as far as the personnel is concerned.
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: And people tend to like the forty nine ers just
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: because their offense is good. But I think their offense
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: is gonna struggle against the Eagles man, and now they're
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: having to go into I don't want to say cold weather,
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: but it's gonna be. It's gonna be in the forties,
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: I think in this game in Philadelphia, and it looks
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: like there might be some rain and cold ish weather
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: plus maybe some rain. That's gonna help the team. It
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: has the better defense than the team that runs the
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: ball better, and that is also the Eagles. I know
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: Barkley didn't have that massive, massive season like he did
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: last year, but he's still Barkley man. He's he's an
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: elite running back and I know Christian McCaffrey also, as
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: McCaffrey has been the more injured running back and he
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: wasn't as good this year. So the Eagles have been
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: able to run the ball better than the Niners have
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: this year. So I like that as well. And if
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: you look at how this game sets up, the forty
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: nine Ers have gone through it man over the last
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: few weeks. Look at the games that they played over
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: the last few weeks. They played a Monday night game
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: at Indianapolis, put up a ton of points, then they
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: had a shootout in a Sunday night game, so back
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: to back primetime, actually three straight primetime games. They played
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: a shootout game against Chicago back in home where they
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: got buying. We gotta win on that. Then they lost
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: to Seattle at home in a game that determined the
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: one seed, and Kyle Shanahan was talking about how important
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: that game was, like, we want to get home field
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: advantaged throughout the playoffs and then that would mean that
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: San Francisco never had to leave San Francisco again, including
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: the super Bowl if they made it there, because the
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl is in San Francisco. So the Niners really
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: wanted that win and they got totally shut down by
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: Seattle's defense. I think that's brutal, man and that could
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: maybe even hurt San Francisco's the momentum a bit because
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: they'd won six games in a row prior to that
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: brutal game. So this has been a brutal stretch for
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: San Francisco and now they have to go back to
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: the East coast and they've been out on the Pacific
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: Coast for two weeks now. So I don't like how
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: this sets up. Whereas Philadelphia is just staying at home
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: and they're rested. Because Philadelphia decided last week that they
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: knew they were gonna get a home game in the
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: first game, they just didn't care. And maybe they're pissed
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: because they would have had two home games most likely
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: if yeah, they would have had two home games guarantee,
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: if the Bears lost last night, which they should have
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: because that would have bounced the two seed, and then
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia would have had a home game in the next game.
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: So the Eagles are probably pissed about that because it
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: looked like if the Packers won and the Eagles won
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: this game, then the Eagles were gonna wind up. I
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: believe the Eagles are gonna wind up hosting the Rams
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: instead of having to go to Let me see, Well,
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: what are the Eagles gonna have to do? The Eagles
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: have to go on the road, yes, let me see,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: because the other games are complete, right, So if the
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: Eagles win this game, now, yeah, they have to play
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: at Chicago in the next game if they win this game.
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: So the Eagles are probably a little bit pissed about that.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: Although I think the Eagles, if they get through this,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: I think the Eagles will beat Chicago, to be honest,
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: and we'll talk about that game when we get to it.
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: It might wind up being a play for me, by
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: the way, but I think the Eagles win this game.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: The Eagles, as I was saying, they rested everybody, and
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: they lost to Washington, which didn't look very good. But again,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: the Eagles rested everyone. They just decided to rest up.
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: They took a bye week. And usually I say, when
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: you have a bye it'll hurt your momentum if you're winning,
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: and yeah, they're winning going into that. But this is
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, man, It's not gonna be a game where
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: you're not gonna show up like it might take a
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: little bit to like shed the rest shed the rust.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: Like you know, Jordan Love took a little while last
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: night to shed it, but he looked fairly good once
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: he did it was he was pretty quick to get
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: back into it, man. So I'm not worried. I'm less
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: worried about it with Philadelphia though, because what did I
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: say Philadelphia likes to do. They run the football and
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: they play deepfense. So and that's what I talk about
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: in the bowls, like the teams that do the best
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: with a lot of rust or too much rest are
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: the teams that play deep fense and run the football,
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: and that's what Philadelphia does. So I'm not concerned about
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: this at all as far as them having that like
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: basically taking that bye week last week, and again they're
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: staying at home, so the travel spot is way better
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: for them. They've gone through much less of a gauntlet
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: over the last few weeks so, and they had a
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: little bit of rest prior to the Buffalo game. The
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: Buffalo game is a big game, but prior to that,
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: they beat the Raiders easily and then they had to
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: win over Washington, which was kind of a big game.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: But whatever it was, I think that game was on
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: like a Yeah, it was on a Saturday. It was
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: kind of a it was one of those isolated games,
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: but it was kind of a whatever type of game
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: against a dead Washington team. So San Francisco's definitely had
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: the gauntlet of the last few weeks, whereas Philadelphia has not.
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: So I like Philadelphia here for sure. Jeffrey. You're a
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: fan of the Eagles, right, yeah, so you like that one.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not really a fan, but if they're gonna if
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get me some some wins, then I like that.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: Oh God, if it's gonna be windy, that's not good
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: because the wind affects the offense. Although that does mean
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: the wind is gonna affect San Francisco more than Philly though,
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: so that's a good part of this. We should talk
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: about the totals, by the way. So yes, uh, the wind,
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: wind is the thing that affects the offense the most,
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: but Philadelphia, again, running the football, probably gonna be doing
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: that more than San Francisco is. And if Philadelphia as
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: the lead, they're gonna be running the football. So the
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: wind might actually be more disadvantageous than the Niners as well.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: Correct the Bears beat the Eagles, Yeah, in Philly in
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: some weird bullshit game. Philly was like a seven point
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: favorite in that game. I don't know what that game was,
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: but that means the Eagles have seen them before and
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: the Eagles will know what to do. So you're saying
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: it's revenge, right, I mean, revenge is not really gonna
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: be a thing when it comes to the playoffs. But
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 1: what is the thing is the team that did really
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: bad in that first game has the adjustments to make,
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: so there is like a zigzag component to it, which
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: I thought might help the Rams yesterday, and the Rams
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: looked good. They were out to a fourteen to nothing
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: lead early in the game, like I said, but it
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: was not to be as far as the Rams covering
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: that game. Now, the total in these two games I
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: talked about, the highest total by far in the first
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: round of the playoffs is Bill's Jaguars. It's gone down
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit, from fifty two to fifty one. Public
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: is on the over eighty three percent of tickets, only
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of the cash on the over. Now
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: I hesitate like I probably lean under in this game
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: as well, even though usually I see a high total
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: and think, well, usually the high totals you want to
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: go over. But this is a playoff game, and as
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: I already pointed out, both teams run the football first,
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: so that type of game kind of does lend itself
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: more towards an under. And the perception of these teams
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: is quarterbacks Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, teams that score well,
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: Jaguars scoring a ton, which usually, by the way, I
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: don't like the team that looks like they score a
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: ton like the Jaguars, But in that game I do
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: slightly lean that way. And you know it is also
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen is Josh Allen. He gets all the publicity.
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I actually think that the oh man I
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: watch is constricting me. Again, I gotta loosen it. I'm
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: taking it off for now and I'm gonna loosen it loose,
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: getting loose. But yes, I would probably lean to an
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: under in that game. A lot of times these playoff
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 1: games start off slow too. Plus last night's games both
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: went over, so you know the public is gonna be
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: coming in on the overs in these games. And then
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree with an under in the game
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: that has talked about either Niners Eagles. It's one of
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: those weird games where I think the Eagles, even though
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: the favorite, the Eagles in the under are correlated, which
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: is weird. Usually the underdog is correlated to the under
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: because it's fewer points, right, the points are worth more,
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: But the Eagles are the are the better defense of
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: the two, So if the game is gonna be a
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: bit lower scoring, that benefits the Eagles. So I do
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: lean under in the game as well. Sixty one percent
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: of tickets are on the over, fifty two percent of
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under. Of the total did already
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: drop from forty six to forty four and a half,
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: but the total probably moved because of the weather. But
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: as Jeffrey said, wind might be a factory, and wind
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: is legitimately something that that affects scoring. Like if the
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: number drop just because of a slight amount of rain,
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: I would say it's an overreaction, and you might want
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: to look to fade that overreaction. In this game, I
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: don't think I would want to do that, because if
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be win, that is legitimately something that hurts offenses.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: So yes, I like the Eagles in that game. Hopefully
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: you can get a decent number on that still and
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: then we have Chargers Patriots. This game is difficult for
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: me to figure out. It's got some wild trends that's
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: set up in this game that go in opposite directions too.
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: Patriots are three and a half point favorite, sixty three
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, only sixty one percent of
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: the cash total is at forty five sixty six percent
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over, fifty six percent of the
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: cash on the over. So the money is agreeing with
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: the Chargers and under here, and I do think those
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: are correlated because the Chargers are the better defense here.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: So I think if it's a lower scoring game and
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: they're the underdoger, I think if it is a lower
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: scoring game, I do think the Chargers have a better
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: chance to cover. If it is a lower scoring game.
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: The Patriots the better offense, the Chargers are the better defense.
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: This one's kind of one of those more classic battles.
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: I usually like to side with the deepfense, but I'm
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: hesitant to do so in this game, although I do
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: agree with it. I agree with the Chargers and the
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: under in this game, but there are a lot of
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: there are some concerns, man. I think more of the
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: concerns with the Patriots though. Of course the Patriots are
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: of course at the inexperienced disadvantage here, right. They have
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: a quarterback who's making his first playoffs start, and I
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: know one of them won last night. Bullshit, Caleb Williams
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have won the other loss, but played well Bryce Young.
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: But we have Drake Man up against Justin Herbert. Of course,
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: as I pointed out last night, I think even including yesterday,
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: I think they the quarterbacks making their first playoffs start
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: against quarterbacks that have played in the playoffs before. There's
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: still like twenty two and forty against the spread in
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: the last sixty two try. So that's still not a
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: good trend. These these quarterbacks that are new to the playoffs,
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: the experience does have an edge, and I think it's
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: actually even better when when the experienced quarterback is the underdog.
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: I think it's even better. Like I think I think
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: they actually cover like some crazy percent of the time.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: I think it's like seventy something percent. I don't know,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: you can go U. Brian Power from wager Talk did
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: a video where he talked about that particular trend, so
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: I think, yeah, it's something like that. It is a
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: crazy trend. So Chargers definitely have the experienced edge and
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: they're in like there's I talked about this with clint
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: On Bald too, because Chargers are his team. This is also,
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: of course, the Chargers in their second year with Harbass,
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: so they have a nice year under their belts. They
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: have more experience. They lost in the playoffs last year.
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: They don't want that to happen again, so I think
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be ready for this. So I think the
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: experience does go quite a bit of a way here.
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: The Patriots also faced the easiest schedule in the league.
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: They only had one win against a team that was
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: above five hundred at the end of the season, and
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: that was against the Bills, and the Bills also won
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: in New England, so the Patriots man they had an
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: easy schedule this year. So the Patriots might be a
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: little bit of a paper tiger here. And I believe
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: all three of their losses came at home. They lost
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: at home to the Raiders, at home to the Steelers,
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: who did not have a winning record, but well, no,
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: the Steelers did have a winning record, but the Patriots
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: lost to them. So the Patriots did play against a
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: couple other playoff teams here. They beat Carolina, and I
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: had a win on that one on the show, by
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: the way, but Carolina was a losing record team. But yeah,
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: the Patriots had an unbelievable easy schedule down the stretch
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 1: and then yes, all three of their losses were at
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: home to the Raiders, the Steelers, and the Bills. So
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: interesting that all three of their losses came at home,
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: so they were actually better on the road than at home.
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: But the one thing that's going to be good for
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: New England about being at home is the weather. Of course,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: so I thought it was going to be raining. That's
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: what I told Clint. The rain came through last night,
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: so the the weather reports were saying rain, But it
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: looks like it's just gonna be kind of cloudy here.
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: And the rain kind of already came through last night.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: But it is gonna be cold, thirty two. It was
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: supposed to be a little bit warmer than this. I
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: think it was supposed to be about thirty six. It's
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: gonna be thirty two now, So that might be a
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: concern because there is one trend that really is going
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: against the Chargers here because I know I talked about
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: the trends that are good for the Chargers, which pretty
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: much all have to do with experience. But the one
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: really bad trend is dome teams like the Chargers are
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs on the road in cold weather, basically
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: in forty degrees or below weather. They have a horrible record.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: They're like one out of their last fifteen games straight
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: up at least. So that's not a good sign for
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. So I'm staying away from the game. I
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: lean to the Chargers here. I think if the Chargers
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: are able to do what they do and play that
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: kind of possession game, that's what jim Ball likes to do. Man,
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: he likes to kind of do what Mario Cristobal did
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: the other night with Miami. He likes to hold onto
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: the football, have these long possessions. The goal is rest
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: your defense so your defense plays better than they would otherwise.
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: So you can take like a mediocre defense to turn
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: them into a good defense by having them be rested
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: when they take the field. So that's why he does that.
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: It's smart, although it does mean you're engaged in a
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: lot of close games. But in this case, we want,
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: like all we needed to be as close if we're
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: gonna have the Chargers cover here, and what was the
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: other thing I was gonna say? Oh, and then it
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: keeps the opposing offense off the field, of course, So
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 1: that's what you want to do here, because the Patriots
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: have a better offense, although the offense, as I talked
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: about with Clint, the roffense maybe isn't quite as good
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: as maybe it looks on the status here though it's
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: a fairly balanced offense, although the Patriots do throw the
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: ball more. But despite that, the Patriots Drake May still
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: only had one three hundred yard bassing game and it
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: was against the Jets, so the second to last game season.
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what to take away from that.
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: Maybe May wants to go out and look good because
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: Stafford had a pretty good game, Yesterda, even though I
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: know the people are saying, oh, Stafford shouldn't be the
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: MVP because they almost lost to Carolina, But come on, man,
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: Like Stafford had three touchdowns in the game, and over
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: what did he Yeah? I think he had three touchdowns
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: and over three hundred yards in the game, and he
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: might have thrown one pick I don't remember, but yeah,
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: I mean it was. It was not a bad game
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: for Stafford. Let's put it that when he performed in
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: the clutch as well and got them the wins. So
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: we'll see if Drake may is able to do the
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: same thing if he winds up in a situation where
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: he has to try to win this game in the clutch,
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: we'll see. I lean to the Chargers and the under
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: in that game. And that is the show for today.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: Long show once again, the plays our college basketball Cleveland
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: State plus the points, Rutgers plus the points, NBA we got,
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: the Brooklyn Nets plus the points, the Nuggets plus the points,
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: Washington Wizards plus the points should still be the Bullets, man,
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: which would have been even more hilarious if they were
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: still the Bullets. When Gilbert Arenas at Javaris Crittenden had
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: that thing critten him, by the way, actually killed somebody
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: after that a case of mistaken identity too, where he
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: was involved in Uh, I forget it was what it was.
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: Some theft. It was either theft or drugs. I don't
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: know what it was. And then I think he was
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: trying to get something back from somebody, though it might
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: have been stolen merchandise. In the first place that somebody
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 1: then took from him, and he was trying to I
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: guess shoot that guy, and he wound up shooting the
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: guy's like female cousin to death instead, so critten him.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure he's in prison, so he should go away.
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 1: You can watch Shooting Guards on Netflix is the documentary
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: about it. But I actually like Arenas. I don't really
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: think Arenas did much wrong. He basically got completely screwed.
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: The NBA gave him a real, really harsh punishment for
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: really just kind of joking around. He put a gun
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: on like Crittendon's chair in the locker room after they
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: were talking shit, like left it there for him to find.
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, and Arenas the other thing, the real reason
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: why the NBA cracked down on Arena so hard was
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: because he was buying guns in states that had more
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: lax gun laws while the team was on the road,
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: and he was like smuggling the guns back home on
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: the team flights and stuff. So that's why the NBA
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: really did that. But he didn't do anything wrong on
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: that regard. Man, It's all just because the gun laws
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: are so horrible in the country that he was just buying.
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 1: The buying the guns in the other in the in
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: the places where where it's more legal or where it's
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: easier to do. Jeffrey, thank you, sir, Thanks for hanging
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: out everybody. Arenas is a rat. Well that's not good.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: What do you mean he ratted people out? Well, that's bullshit.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: Then if that's the case, fuck him for that. If
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: he did that, I've always liked Arenas. Man, that sucks.
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: If that's the case, all right, that's gonna do it. Oh, yes,
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: then we do. The Eagles is the NBA play. I
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: got sidetracked by the Washington play there. That's gonna do it.
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: Learn it tone on Instagram, Learn it tone on Twitter, Like, subscribe,
• 1:49:09
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• 1:49:13
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• 1:49:17
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• 1:49:20
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• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: Uh and loser Cast. Go check out I've always why
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: don't I always forget that? Yeah? Go check out the
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: loser Cast, the comedy panel podcast that we do pretty
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: much every Tuesday night. After leading to skanks, that's gonna
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 1: do it. Thanks guys, let's get some wins today. Let's
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: bounce back. We did the other day, so we've been
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: zigzagging the last few days. Let's bounce back this time.
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 1: Peace for now.