Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - A Good Day For Team Blue, A Horrible Day For Team Red + The Political Climate Is Terrible For Republicans, But Can Democrats Take Advantage?

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Full Episode - A Good Day For Team Blue, A Horrible Day For Team Red + The Political Climate Is Terrible For Republicans, But Can Democrats Take Advantage? · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: rates may vary. Hello there, Welcome to the Wednesday edition
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: of the Chuck Podcast. If it's Wednesday, it means somebody
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: voted somewhere on Tuesday. And you know, for a lot
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: of Wednesdays between now and November, I'm going to be
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: leading with the campaign because they'll be an important primary
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: night or an important Tuesday election, and you know we've
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: only had a couple of important primary nights so far,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Texas and Illinois being a big one. But we had
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  Speaker 1: a big one, and it was a special election, in
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: this case, a special referendum. It's in Virginia. I've talked
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  Speaker 1: a lot about this Virginia referendum. Those of you who've
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  Speaker 1: towarded no, this is you know the state. I live
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  Speaker 1: in the state. I'm a resident in the state I'm
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  Speaker 1: voting in. I still consider myself a Floridian. First, you
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  Speaker 1: know where you're born and raised, is you know always
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: where you're from. Virginia is where I live. The irony
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  Speaker 1: of courses, I have now lived longer in Arlington and
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: in Virginia than I have any other state in the Union.
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  Speaker 1: So and yet I still consider myself a Floridian. And
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  Speaker 1: I'm probably not alone here in northern Virginia. But look
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  Speaker 1: the big news, and it would have been arguably bigger
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  Speaker 1: news had this referendum not passed. But I do think
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  Speaker 1: we have this sort of I do want to lay
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: a few things out here. So Look, it's a it's
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  Speaker 1: a it's a big win for Democrats in this respect.
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  Speaker 1: Look when Republicans started this in Texas and then Indiana
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  Speaker 1: and Missouri, and we saw in some of these places,
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  Speaker 1: I think there were real question marks about whether you
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: whether Democrats could unite enough even in some of their
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  Speaker 1: blue estates to do something like this, And they had
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  Speaker 1: to create a in two of the states actually get
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  Speaker 1: referendum on the ballot basically to create a constitutional legitimacy
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  Speaker 1: in the state constitutions of California and Virginia and to
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  Speaker 1: pull this off. And they did it. Okay, they did it.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it shows you the power, right,
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  Speaker 1: the power of of the of the Trump resistance is extraordinary.
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  Speaker 1: If it wasn't extraordinary, you wouldn't have California and Virginia
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  Speaker 1: successfully essentially creating special referendum, special elections, constitutional amendments to
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  Speaker 1: temporarily change how they do things in order to jerry
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  Speaker 1: rig a map in Democratics favor, in order to balance
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  Speaker 1: out what happened in Texas. So tactically, for a party
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  Speaker 1: that regularly brings knives to gunfights, I get that there's
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  Speaker 1: a feeling of satisfaction among some partisan Democrats this morning
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  Speaker 1: that like they that they fought fire with fire. Now,
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  Speaker 1: what I've been warning about and I still think is
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  Speaker 1: a medium term issue for the party going forward is
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  Speaker 1: I do think the strength of the Democratic Party in
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  Speaker 1: the Trump era has been there seen as the party
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  Speaker 1: that doesn't want to break the rules, that they're seen
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  Speaker 1: as the party that are rule followers, that they're seen
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  Speaker 1: as the party of fair districts. Right. This is a
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  Speaker 1: party that has spent the last fifteen years of which
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  Speaker 1: many of US Virginia saw plenty of TV ads showing
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: clips of Barack Obama lamenting jerrymandering, which the no referendum
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  Speaker 1: side amplified quite a bit in the last couple of weeks.
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  Speaker 1: I think it was so successful that the Yes side
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  Speaker 1: had to sort of redo some of their Obama driven
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: at campaigns. And I think the fact that that they
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: don't have this benefit of the doubt with the independent
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  Speaker 1: voter right now, right, that's what this is where you
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: know they're playing partisan games. We know that that's what
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  Speaker 1: they're doing. Wait a minute, now, you're going to do
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  Speaker 1: this too. And so while I get the short term benefit,
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  Speaker 1: I get the near term you know help that this
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  Speaker 1: will give, and you know, I question how helpful this
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  Speaker 1: will be. I think you could argue, and I've made
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  Speaker 1: this argument, You've heard it here before. I think you
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  Speaker 1: could argue that if Virginia didn't touch its map there,
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  Speaker 1: we're going to pick up two congressional districts in this
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  Speaker 1: the essentially the old first and the Old second. The
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  Speaker 1: second is Virginia Beach. The first is this Northern Neck area,
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  Speaker 1: which is sort of a a as the Northern Virginia
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  Speaker 1: suburbs continue to grow. Right, this is a place where,
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  Speaker 1: in some ways it was going to be an uphill campaign.
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  Speaker 1: But with the wind at the backs of the Democrats,
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  Speaker 1: and particularly in Northern Virginia, I think there was a
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  Speaker 1: path to them getting an eight to three advantage with
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  Speaker 1: the with the map pre referendum, and so now they're
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: going to have a map that in theory allows them
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  Speaker 1: to go ten to one. But there is all of
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: a sudden, now a whole bunch of Democratic primaries. And
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: you know, just like what we've seen with the Republicans,
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  Speaker 1: right Democrats could overperform in Republican leaning districts if the
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  Speaker 1: quote unquote wrong person won the primary. You know, if
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  Speaker 1: it was two Maga or two Tea party ish, that
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  Speaker 1: could happen. But on the left side of the aisle
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  Speaker 1: right two progressive, two left leaning of a nominee and
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  Speaker 1: then suddenly it opens the door. There are a couple
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  Speaker 1: of these districts that are you know, democratic advantage, but
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  Speaker 1: we're talking, you know, under five points when it comes
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  Speaker 1: to democratic advantage. So I'm not going to sit here
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  Speaker 1: and say this is a total success for the Democratic
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  Speaker 1: Party unless it is ten to one for sure, or
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  Speaker 1: if they'd only the only way they win the House
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  Speaker 1: is on the backs of these remaps in California and Virginia.
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  Speaker 1: And when you start to just look at the three
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  Speaker 1: states that have done the most gerrymandering, right, Texas went
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  Speaker 1: to try to find a net of five seats, California
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  Speaker 1: basically try to erase the five and and Virginia is
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  Speaker 1: trying to do four. So if the Democratic majority is
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: in the single digits, they win the control of the House.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: But it's in the single digits, well, then you're going
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: to have to you you are going to have to
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  Speaker 1: point to these referendums in Virginia and in California as
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  Speaker 1: the difference that without it, it doesn't happen. If Democrats
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  Speaker 1: win the House and they're up to two hundred and
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  Speaker 1: thirty five members, which means they've netted somewhere between seventeen
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  Speaker 1: eighteen ninety somewhere in the twenty you know, around basically
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  Speaker 1: between seventeen and twenty five districts. Then I I'm going
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  Speaker 1: to look at these maps as sort of wasted money
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  Speaker 1: these referendums is wasted money because it means they would
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  Speaker 1: have won the House regardless of these remaps, regardless of
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  Speaker 1: these referendum changes. And so the lingering question I have
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  Speaker 1: in my mind about all of this is not whether
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  Speaker 1: this is going to help them with the House. Look
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: it is it is going to help Democrats are closer
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  Speaker 1: to taking control of the House today than they were yesterday.
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  Speaker 1: Simply can these referendums. I'm not discounting that, but at
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  Speaker 1: what cost? Just take in the state of Virginia, you know,
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  Speaker 1: Governor Abigail Spamberg, after winning by double digits looking like
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  Speaker 1: sort of you know what the what the future of
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  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party could look like, has found herself dragged
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  Speaker 1: into becoming a very partisan looking governor, very unlike the
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  Speaker 1: Mark Warner and Tim Kaine and Ralph Northam models of governing.
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  Speaker 1: Even Terry McAuliffe, who you know as a former National
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  Speaker 1: Party chairman, I don't think anybody saw him at first
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  Speaker 1: as a honor, but he very much governed from the center.
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  Speaker 1: You know, he was he was you know, he may
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  Speaker 1: be a thought of as a longtime partisan Democrat because
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  Speaker 1: he was the chairman of the DNC, and you know,
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  Speaker 1: and it's so close to the Clintons, and the Clintons
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  Speaker 1: are certainly synonymous with the Democratic Party, but it is
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  Speaker 1: of a different wing of the Democratic Party, right, much
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  Speaker 1: more of the quote pro business wing of the Democratic Party.
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  Speaker 1: So when you look at sort of the four Democratic
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  Speaker 1: governors that have most recently preceded Abigail Spamberger, Terry mccauliffe,
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  Speaker 1: Ralph Northam, Mark Warner, and Tim Kaine, they either governed
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  Speaker 1: they all four tried to govern more from the center.
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  Speaker 1: I still think Governor Spamberger wants to govern from the center.
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  Speaker 1: But she had to begin her term immediately as a
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  Speaker 1: partisan warrior, right, because the first thing on the agenda
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  Speaker 1: was getting this through the legislature. Then getting this you know,
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  Speaker 1: and by the way, this is not done done. There
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  Speaker 1: is still a court case, there's still this is likely
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: to reach the State Supreme Court. The assumption is the
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: courts will end up ruling in favor of the yes
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  Speaker 1: side on this but there's the there's it's not an
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  Speaker 1: unreasonable ruling if they decide nope, they violated specific pieces
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  Speaker 1: of how this should get done. You know, perhaps you know,
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  Speaker 1: you could see a hybrid situation where they say, you
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  Speaker 1: know these maps, you got to redo this again if
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  Speaker 1: you and you can make this constitutional going into twenty eight,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: but you can't do it for twenty six. Right, there's
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  Speaker 1: all sorts of scenarios that are still left. But I
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  Speaker 1: will tell you, like there's a bit of pandemonium now
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: in how this election cycle works. So this map passes,
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  Speaker 1: believe it or not, we have these brand new districts
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: that in theory are only now in law starting today, right,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: because the passage of this referendum as soon as it's certified,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: essentially puts these officially, So the new paps take affect
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: immediately when this referendum becomes law, So as soon as
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  Speaker 1: it's certified, and sometime today maybe it's tomorrow that it's certified.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: So guess what the filing deadline is for the now
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: new August fourth primary. Virginia has never had August primaries
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: in recent history. Frankly, primaries are fairly new this century.
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  Speaker 1: There used to be a state that did more of
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: its nomination nominating process via conventions and county caucuses and
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: things like that. The shift towards primaries really began in
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  Speaker 1: the nineties. So now there's gonna be an August primary
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: for these federal races, and the filing deadline is Friday,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: as in this coming Friday. So we may see some
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  Speaker 1: Republican incumbents retire. Whitman, the incumbent and the current first
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: congressional district, he's kind of politically homeless in the remap.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: He may decide not to file, but there may be
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: pressure on all of these incumbents to go ahead and
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: file if they're thinking about retirement, because you know they're
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: in theory. There's still this court case that that could
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: end up disqualifying this referendum. So the nightmare scenario for
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: the state and the Department of Elections is if the
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: yes vote, if the state, if the Supreme Court later
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: decides that the legislative process to put this referendum in
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  Speaker 1: place was unconstitution intitutional, then you would have candidates who
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: filed for the districts under the new map suddenly running
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: in a district that no longer exists. You could see
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: the August fourth primary pushback again, you could see a
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: refiling period, so you know this is likely to be
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: what the new map is, but nothing is concrete yet.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Right the court, there is still a challenge to the
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: constitutionality of this referendum and of what's been done. It
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: is still going through state courts. This is not something
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: that would make itself to the US Supreme Court. This
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: would be a Virginia decision within the Virginia court system.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: So it's probably you know, going to get implemented. But
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: even after this vote, we still have a bit of uncertainty.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: But big picture, the price that Democrats are paying to
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: essentially stay what they believe is stay competitive in this
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: House map, which again I don't think this was as
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: dire as the picture that they were painting. And yes,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: we'll probably get another redistricting attempt now to counter Virginia
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: in Florida, but there's only so much they can do
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: in Florida. They also have a referendum that's in the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: constitution that well, that sort of they've got to be
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: careful not to do this via partisan gain. If it
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: looks like partisan gain, then they have constitutional problems. I
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: think there's only so much they can do. Now we
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: saw I'm you know, I'm stunned at how this ten
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: to one map looks that they took essentially northern Virginia
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: and essentially did what Illinois did to maximize congressional seats
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: there for Democrats, which is, you know, have as many
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: districts touched the Chicago land as possible. Well, in Virginias,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: have as many districts touch northern Virginia as possible, and
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: then you sort of sprout out like a sort of
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: a one sided octopus, if you would, on that front. Well,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: in Florida, where they think they can make gains is
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: to take those southeastern Democratic health districts and Broward and
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Palm Beach and parts of Dade County, Miami Dade County
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: and essentially create slices of bacon from the Atlantic Coast
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: to the Gulf coast and essentially bring in more Republicans
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: into some of these East Coast Broward County and Palm
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: Beach congressional districts and get Republicans from the southwest part
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: of the state your Naples, your Sarasota, is your Fort Myers, etc.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: And that they can The problem with that, though, is
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: that they're going to make a lot of light red districts,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: and in a bad Republican year, light red districts can
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: get flipped. So the possibility of a dummy mander for
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Florida messing around there is probably a bat higher than
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: I think folks fully appreciate. But look in the long run,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: you know, I think the biggest loss for Democrats here
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: is this brand issue that they're no longer seen as
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: the party of honest reform. I think Donald Trump and
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: the Republicans were not seen as a party that was
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: interested in fairness or fair elections. And who am I
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: speaking with the I'm talking about voters that are these independent,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: these unaffiliated voters that are not hard partisans. And when
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: you look at when Democrats the successful election cycles for
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Democrats in the Trump era eighteen twenty in particular, they
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: would over index with those voters in the middle who
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: saw them as sort of, you know, that even slightly
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: center right voter. I think this is going to linger.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to leave a bad taste.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: And this is what's going to you know, the unintended
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: there's always unintended consequences. I think the biggest unintended consequence
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: of all of this gerrymandering that we've seen in all
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: of this sort of hard partisanship in the States is
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: that I think it only is going to increase demand
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: for a third alternative now is it an independent, is
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: alternative party, whatever you want to look at it. I
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: just think that it only increases the appetite for that
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: and it is you know, I will say this, I
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: don't think the Democrats are improving their brand on this.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: They may make the base happy, it may fire them up,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: and Donald Trump is an amazing elixir here for the
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Democratic coalition. In fact, you know, NOE appeared to have
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum. I think the worst thing
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: that the No side did in Virginia was at Donald
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Trump to do a teletown hall the night before the election.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: And I get what they were trying to do, right,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: This is the trap of Donald Trump swing voters to
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: test them, but base voters only get motivated by them.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: And so you know, the more you bring Trump involved
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: in your campaign, the more you probably fire up queasy
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: northern Virginia voters who maybe don't like this are a
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: little bit uncomfortable with this, and then they see Trump
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: and figure out screw that guy. Right, So here we are,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: and I guess at this point, if you know, I
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: already sort of believed the cake was already baked with
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: the House, I think now Virginia might be icing. But
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: it's all of those unintended consequences that that may not
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: rear its head here this cycle, but may rear its
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: ugly head in twenty twenty eight. And in the meantime,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: frankly may have done some long term you know, it
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: may be that an Abigail Spamberger never fully recovers from
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: starting being seen by the voting elector at aar in
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: Virginia as seeing is more partisan than they expected her
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: to be, and does that sort of hover over her
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: term in a way that she never gets never gets
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: out of. Look still a long way to go, and
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: there may be moments where she decides to push back
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: at her party in a more high profile ways. Now
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: that this referendums out of the way, I'll be curious
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: to see if she sort of starts to push back
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: at the speaker, Louise Lucas, the sort of the most
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: influential state senator there who right now look like they're
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: the ones leading the party while Governor Spamberger is sort
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: of writing Shotgun. This episode of the Chuck Toddcast is
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• 21:29
  Speaker 1: am a customer. The other big news of the day,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: of course, was something that I told you was going
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: to happen here forty eight hours ago, that even if
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: they didn't negotiate, that they were going to find a
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: way to extend the ceasefire. And Donald Trump unilaterally extended
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the ceasefire with iron if he hadn't singled, If you
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: needed yet another signal that he does not want to
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: restart the wore, we got it in spades on Tuesday night.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Everything he asked Iran to do, they didn't do. And
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: yet he agreed to extend a ceasefire anyway, and he
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: called it an indefinite extension. Right. He didn't want to
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: He didn't want to have to do this in another week,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: do this in another three days, do this in another
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: two weeks. So Iran has essentially won the second round
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: of negotiations by not showing up, and Donald Trump agreed
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: to extend the ceasefire anyway. That's quite the capitulation by him,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and it's quite an acknowledgment of the current situation. And
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: this gets back to the to the trap that he
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: put himself in because he's now found a way to
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: start a war with Iran and somehow strengthen Iran's position
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: in the region. And that's what this looks like at
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: the moment, and the only way to undo it is
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: to ask and he doesn't have the stomach for it.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: And we know this because he's choosing not to do
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: it already. Now. There is one thing that I think
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: will eventually get the Iranians back to the table, and
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: they's going to be the Chinese, right, They're only going
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: to have so much patience for this strait of hormones
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: to be closed. They're not going to be interested in
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: having a confrontation with the United States. They want to
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: have good relations with the United States. Their economy needs
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: the United States. So at some point I think the
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Chinese are going to put a lot of pressure in
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: the Iranians to get to the table and find an
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: exit ramp, you know, get the straight open and find
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: an exit ramp here. But think about what I just said, right,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: We're now waiting in the Chinese to put pressure in
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Iran because the United States couldn't do it. The United
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: States couldn't make them do this and start a war
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: you're not prepared to finish. And Donald Trump started a war.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: He's not prepared to finish. He thought he could essentially
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: blow hard his way and get the Iranians to do
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: his bidding without without without it being difficult. Right. He
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: clearly thought the Venezuela example was going to work here,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: and it didn't. And I guess the good news is,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: if you're worried about us getting into a long year's
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: long quagmire, he isn't going to do it. That's a
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: I think that's a good thing for our troops. I
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: think that's a good thing for a lot of Iranians.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: And so a lot of people are going to live
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: instead of die. But strategically, this, if this is the
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: scenario we're staring at, then this has been a strategic disaster.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: This is in some ways worse than you know, it's
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: much worse in a rack, right, I mean, we got
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: a better outcome out of Iraq then we're getting out
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: of this. It's as bad as Vietnam. I mean, again,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: it's not worse in Vietnam because we're not doing this
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: for a decade and we're not you know, seeing thousands
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: of American troops die. But what a strategic I mean
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: just this is an epic foreign policy failure now, and
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: it is hard to see that whatever deal eventually gets
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: cut here does anything other than oddly enhance the position
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: of the Iranians. I mean, we'll be lucky to get
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: the Iran Nuclear Deal two point zero at this point,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: and it's probably going to be something like that with
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: the Strait having to be a part of this. But
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: this is I know, Trump's erratic, and maybe you know,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: there's always a possibility he could do X, Y and Z,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: but he clearly doesn't want to do it. He clearly
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't have the stomach for it. He sees what this
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: has done to our economy and it's not going to
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: get better. He is desperate to try to get this
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: economy healing as fast as possible. That's why you extend
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: the ceasefire indefinitely. That's why you go ahead and do
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: this unilaterally even if the Iranians aren't there, because he
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: is signaling the Iranians I want to cut a deal. Please,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: I want to cut a deal. Will you hurry up
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: and cut a deal with US? So? And you know,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: the Iranians are good negotiators and they pay attention. As
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: I told you on Monday, I think they can sniff
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: out the fact that Trump wants a deal too badly.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: And they sniff that out. They played They basically called
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: his bluff, and he extended the ceasefire. Anyway, we got
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: a long way to go. I know, all the time
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I can sit here and talk about, you know how
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: bad the decision isn't Iran? Did I tell you how
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: bad this decision is? Now? Do you? We? You know,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: as if more people needed convincing, why so many US
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: president said this is a bad idea? Why so many
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: US presidents told bb Netanya who to stand down? But hey,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: this one leads with his gut this one. You know,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: he doesn't need to take the advice of the people
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: around him. And I do think, are you know the
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: folks in you know, we're we're going to get a
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: lot of whispers that you know, I wasn't for this,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: or I wasn't for this, I wasn't. You could have
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: said something more definitive and louder at the beginning. Now
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: maybe it wouldn't have mattered. Right, he heard what he
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: wanted to hear out of BB And he doesn't trust
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: his own intelligence agencies because it goes back to the
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty election and even before then, he thinks all
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: the all the rank and file intel people are just
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: against him. So he's not going to ever buy into
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: any of that. But it's it's, uh, this is this
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: is this is a big blunder. You know. I think
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: this is something that will leave a huge mark on
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Marco Rubio and his presidential future. And I don't know
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: how a jed Vance ducks getting sort of tainted with this,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: but you know, it is hard to imagine that this
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: that any deal that is cut here at the end
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: is going to make this I Ran War seem like
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: a good idea in hindsight, especially since we know that
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: the economic ramifications, the negative consequences to this are going
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: to are going to linger, and they're going to linger
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: for months, not weeks. So you want to take these
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: two things together, and it is in some ways a
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: pretty disastrous night for the Republicans in twenty twenty six.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: You know, I certainly have my opinion about the long
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: term impact on the Democratic Party brand for being, you know,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: for deciding to fight partisan fire with partisan fire. But
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: if you want to just look at the cold hard
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: calculus of campaign twenty twenty six, the events of Tuesday
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: have moved Democrats a lot closer to winning both the
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: House and the Senate. With this Iran war getting no
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: closer to ending, it is more and more likely we
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: are going to have a very unpopular economy. I'm not
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: going to sit here and predict brother in a recession
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: or not. It's just going to be an unpopular economy
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: come November. And that means the Senate is now fully
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: in play, and we've seen I'll tell you, you know,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: it's April, and you know, you usually know right and
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: to me, there have to be a black Swan event
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: for the trajectory of this campaign season to change. But
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: you're starting to see it's always you know, it's in
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: April that you start to see hints at certain states.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: You're let go on, huh, how about that? And there
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: was some polling that came out of Camp a couple
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: of days ago that showed the independent candidate leading the
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: incumbent senator there, Roger Marshall showed lesser known Democrats within
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: striking range and keeping the incumbent senator there under fifty.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: And you're like, huh. And Kansas has been hit hard
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: on tariffs, right, all of these Midwestern EG states have
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a double whammy, right, the Ran war
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: is not going to be popular. They're getting impacted directly
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: because of the cost of energy and fertilizer. But these
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: were already this was the egg industry was already an
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: industry that had been taking on water and taking a
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: lot of pain from the tariffs. So when I see
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: a political environment where you have, again a small sample
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: poll in Iowa that had Rob sand already up double digits,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: had the Senate had both Democratic candidates essentially dead even
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: with the likely Republican nominee, there, you've got what we've
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: seen in Kansas. We've already seen that Nebraska is already
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: super competitive. There is not a data point I've seen
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: that has been that is somehow going to that counters
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: what appears to be democratic momentum going into the fall
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: of twenty six. All of the little tea leaves that
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: you put together to start reading, right, I mean, I mean, look,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: there's a new poll out of Texas indicating that Paxton
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: is more likely to win that runoff than Cornyn. Right,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: It's like that only puts all of those Texas seats
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: more in play. It is all of the developments right
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: now are only helping one side and only hurting the other.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: About the only thing the Team Red has going for
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: right now is this massive financial disparity in the super
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: PACs and this massive financial advantage that they have between
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: the rn C and the DNC. But here's the unknown
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: on those Donald Trump controls some of that money, and
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: he's weirdly cheap, and he doesn't always smartly spend it.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: He withholds they didn't spend near hardly any of that
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: money in Virginia on the NO side right there, So
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: you know, I you know, I think he is definitely
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: going to spend it to try to defeat Thomas Massey.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: But you know, he he he exerts more ownership over
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: that money in a way that he viewses his not
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: belonging to the Republican Party or the Republican campaign. So,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: you know, one day does not begin or end a
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: campaign season. But boy was this uh just when you
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: look at the impact on our camp on campaign twenty
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: twenty six, Tuesday was a really good day for Team
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Blue and a really bad day for Team Right. All right,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: coming up, we're going to talk more about the political
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: map going forward, more about campaign twenty twenty six, and
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: also a little campaign twenty twenty eight with my longtime
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: friend and a longtime political advisor to former President Bill Clinton.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: It's Doug Sosnik. He puts out a quarterly PowerPoint that
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: sort of puts together the political data from various entities
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: and the It's one of the more comprehensive reports I
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: get every quarter. He just put one out, so I
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: thought it'd be a good time to catch up with him.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: And then I have a fun new top five list
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: that I'm debuting thanks to you guys, great listener idea,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: which was top five sort of overlooked races, meaning and
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: the criteria is races that are more competitive than the
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: party treats them, meaning that you know, it's basically it's
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: five total races. It's three that the Democrats are sort
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: of underrating that they could win, and two that the
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Republicans are underrating that they could win. But for some reason,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: the national parties aren't targeting the way I think that
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: they should or could. So that's a fun little feature.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: And of course we'll have a bunch of Q and as.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: So it's been a day and then so so I'll
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: let you steal in this interview. Enjoy the interview. We'll
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: sneak in the break. When we come back, we'll talk
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: more campaign twenty twenty six and a little campaign twenty
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: twenty eight with my friend Doug Softing. This episode of
• 34:31
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  Speaker 1: use that code. Well. About once a corner we political
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: junctiously await an email from for some of us a
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: long time source and a friend, and for others just
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: a longtime consigliary of sorts or anywhere in between. And
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: it's a sort of a PowerPoint presentation from Doug Sosnik.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Doug Sosnick is a longtime political advisor to Bill Clinton,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: was a White House political director, worked on the campaigns
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: both the ninety two and ninety six. But he's incredibly
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: good at essentially trying to take a lot and we
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: have a lot of inputs these days when it comes
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: to trying to assess the political climate. It's not just
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: polling data anymore. There's plenty of inputs. There's economic inputs,
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: there's all sorts of inputs to put in this thing.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: And he does a terrific job of essentially putting together
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: sort of a just about a quarterly picture, if you will,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: and he just put one out. He happened to date
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: this one April eighth. That's always a little bit more
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: of an important date to me than just about most
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: other people. Happens to be the day I aged out
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: of the demographic And that's all. I'll that's all. I'm
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: gonna leave you with Sasnik that this has been a
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: This has been the hardest birthday I've had yet, because
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: this is the year I'm no longer in the demo,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: and you know, it's like it's all downhill from here.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: I know, can't complain. I got to shut up. But
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: it's also a good time to assess where are we
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: and of course, somebody who's been there, the real question
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: about this current political environment we're in is how much
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: can change between now and November other than a black
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: Swan event. And so, Doug, welcome back to the podcast.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: Great to be back. Check.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: So let me start. Thank you, No no, no no, I
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: just sort of done on me. When I saw the
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: date on your PowerPoint, I was like, oh, I appreciate
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: you dating it that day. I am I had the
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: I had theorized with Melissa a couple of days ago,
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: last weekend, this week that we may look back and say, oh,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: this midterm ended in February twenty eighth, the day the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: day he decided to launch a war with Iran, that
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: in some ways that there was no getting out of it,
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: and it's sort of like quicksand and it's just going
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: to suck him in. Obviously, we know we can go
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: through every cliche. You know, a month is a lifetime
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: in politics and all of that. Realistically, how much can
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: this political environment change to me now November in your opinion?
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: So let me say two things about that. The first is,
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: I know you're a big sports fan. I think one
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: of the things that sports events games have in common
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: with elections is there's usually one or two moments that
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: are the decisive moments in a game, and many times,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: when you're watching it in real time, you know that
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: was the moment that the game was decided, and sometimes
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: only after the game is over you look back at
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: the point or two. It's the same in elections. There's
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: always an ability. I would say, as an example for
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden's tournament office, I think the summer of two
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: thousand and one really set the arc for his entire presidency.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: He never recovered from Afghanistan withdrawal.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: He never more than that. It was the he said
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: that July fourth, he said, we're gonna have COVID over
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: a by Labor day, the withdrawal. You're right about that,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: But also inflation showed for the first time that September.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: It got over six percent, and by the end of
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: September of that month we started having supply chain problems.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: So anyway, every election cycle, I think every has that
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: sort of moment. My hunch is that that moment was
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: what you just identified, which was going into Iran. The
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: second point I want to make though, is that, well, yes,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: it's true that we're say, six months away from the
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: election day. One thing historically remains true and one thing
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: has changed. What has remained true is that the country
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: generally settles in sometimes around the summer before an election,
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: and pretty much at that point kind of takes stock
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: of where they feel they are, how they're going to vote,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: if at all in November. So, for instance, in nineteen
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: ninety two, Bill Clinton was elected president in large part
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: do the relatively mild but nevertheless a recession that happened
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: in the second third year of Bush's presidency. If you
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: go back and look now, by July of ninety two,
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: on the run up to the election, we actually not
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: only got out of the recession, but in fact, by
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: election day the economy had made the turn and things
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: were really going much better. But it was too late
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: for Bush. People had already made their mind, though. So
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: that's one of the things that hasn't changed. We're really,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: you know, forty five fifty sixty days away from that.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: The other thing, though, which has changed is unlike back
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: in that example of ninety two a year's past, we
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: now have many more people voting beginning early September, and
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: so we have elections now where maybe half the people
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: will have voted by election day. So the point is
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: the window for this administration and the Republicans to turn around.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: The current mood in this country is really very narrow,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: and we shouldn't be thinking of that a six months
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: until election day.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there were these little there's also been I'm curious
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: where you are in this. There's this generalization about what
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the economy is in June is what people will feel
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: like the economy is come voting time.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Well, there's a big change that's going on in our country,
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: and some of the sides in the decuolity show it.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: We used to have a direct correlation between what the
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: economic numbers say and how people feel about the economy.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: In the last three years or so, that's they've been delinked,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: and so that while the number is like a case shape,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: which is our economy, while the numbers are positive. And
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: that's what Biden used to say, it's what Trump now says. Uh,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: the majority of the country doesn't feel it. And the
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: reason why is because we now have disproportionately a small
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: number of people reaping the rewards, and so we now
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: have the difference between average and mean averages may be good,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: but the mean sixty percent of the country feels like
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: they're paycheck to paycheck.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Remember the John Edward Stubbs speech of Foura to Americas. Yeah,
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: it's almost more prescient. That's prescient. I mean it's almost
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: more relevant today, isn't it.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: Totally? And this didn't happen overnight. This began in the
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: nineteen seventies when we moved to shareholder capitalism. Yep, all
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, everything was back the quarterly number shareholders
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: are the only constituency that mattered. And this has been
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: a steady fifty year drum beat where the America worker
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: is no longer enjoying the spoils of the benefits of
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: our economy like they did in the past.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Well, the other thing that I'm staring at it right here,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: the total amount of wealth held by people more than
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: seventy three people.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: A third of the wealth in America is now with
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: people who are seventy years or older.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean, Like, what if you're Bill
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Clinton in the nineties, how would you attack this?
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Well, we have and I'll answer that in terms of
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: the future for now the Democratic Party in a minute.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: But we do up to America's But the problem in
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: our to Americas is the winners now correlated to education,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: and education correlates to income. So the problem in our
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: country right now is we're moving away from a meritocracy.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: We're no matter what family you're born into, if you worked,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: how you can get ahead. Now we increasingly are a
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: situation where the winners are the ones who win the
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: lottery at birth and are born into a family. So
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: if you if one third of a wealth in America
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: is accumulated now with people who are seventy or years
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: or older from people in that families. Those families, they're
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: probably gonna win from that because they're going to inherit
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: that money. But to answer your question, the key for
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: so I think for both parties right now, for the
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: Democratic Party is going back to our roots which made
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: us a majority party from Roosevelt through really you know Reagan,
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: I guess, and that is, how do we create for
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: the sixty percent of the people in America who don't
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: get a four year college degree. How do we create
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: laddering for them to have a middle class life which
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: they used to have during the Industrial Age. And so
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: that key for us as Democrats to be competitive around
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: the country in rural areas, in non urban areas, we
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: have got to address the challenges of people without a
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: college degree increasingly being left behind.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: You know, I've been obsessed with this and going back
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: and you realize that, you know, our current era of polarization,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: it isn't you know, we'll break it at some point.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: The question is whether it's broken intentionally or it just
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: sort of breaks on its own, because at some point
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: they're almost like a revolt of the majority but there
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: is a majority, a durable majority, Roosevelt like sixty percent,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: who are sort of fed up with how this entire
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: system works. But right now they're kind of divvied up
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: between the two parties. Right They've been culturally divvied up,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: maybe they're divvied up by identity, maybe they're divvied up
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: by geography. And yet if you had a you know,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: we could sort of see that there is there's a
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: common economic frustration among this group that if you did
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: what FDR did, which was basically, look, you're going to
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: have to close your eyes to the cultural things and
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: just focus as a north star on the economic you
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: can build that majority. Is that realistic though? I Mean,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: I sit there and I like, I look at it.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: On one hand, I'm like, I can see it, and
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: yet I just can't figure out how we ever get
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: culture out of politics, even to porarily.
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about the short term and no longer
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: term and the short term and I'm talking about five
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: to ten years. Where we have been since the turn
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: of the century is essentially three kind of buckets of
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: people in America. And just to remind you that you'd
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: probably already know, politics is a lagging indicator, not a
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: leading indicator of how people feel in America. Whereas these
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: trends of decline of the middle class began in the
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: seventies and people feeling increasingly alienated towards our institutions all
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: started back in the seventies, it didn't show up politically
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: until the early nineties and the first election of Ross
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: Peroso nineteen. Almost twenty million people voted for him in
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: nineteen ninety two, so that was the first time these
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: trends showed up politically. And Trump in any ways gotten
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: front the line that had been forming fifteen years before.
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: He wrote down that escalater and he's tapping I feed
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: him as a symptom of what's happened in America the cause.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: But we currently have three buckets of people in America.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: We have the forty five forty six percent of the
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: people in America who hate Donald Trump no matter what
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: he says, no matter what he does, they will never
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: support him or accept him. We have around forty percent
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: roughly that like Donald Trump and will stay by Donald
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: Trump no matter what it says or does. The remaining
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: fifteen percent, called civilians, basically dislike both parties. They tend
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: to vote against who's ever in power. Because we now
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: had eleven out of the last thirteen elections, the country's
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: ready to gets who.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: It is remarkable. We haven't had a streak like this
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: since the nineteenth century.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but this fifteen percent, roughly, they are more aligned
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: with Trump on views than not. First of all, he's
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: a disruptor and he's breaking things not maintain the status quo.
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: They agree with him about China's our enemy. They agree
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: with him about NATO hasn't been paying their fair share.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: They agree with him about the government is too big
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: and should be cut. They agree with him that our
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: borders should have been shut down. But they had personal
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: concerns about him. But when the choice was either a
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: Biden or Harris versus Trump, given how they remembered presidency economically.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: So now Trump has lost that third group. That's why
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: he's back to around forty percent. So we're in this standoff.
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: It's cultural now, so that I don't think that's gonna
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: change the next four or five or six years. In
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: the long term, though, we are beginning. Two things are
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: gonna happen to get us out of this great The
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: feed first is the baby is gonna die off. We're
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: gonna have new generational leadership in our country. Young people
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: in America think both parties suck and they have actually
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: more in common with each other, certainly the Baby Boom generation.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: But the other is we are beginning the process of
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: converting people through our job systems and training to get
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: people laddered up for the jobs of the future and
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: the career of the future, so that you can have
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: a middle class life without going to college. And when
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: that happens, education, which correlates to income and culture, will
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: be less important. But I think we're another five to
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: ten years away from that.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Well it's interesting I when when people ask me when
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: are we getting out of this, and I'm like, I
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: think we have to get through a few more presidential
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Like I had said this ten years ago, I said,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna have a series of one term presidents,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: and we have had three the last time we had
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: this many. You have could go back to before McKinley,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: and we're probably I think we probably go I think
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: the progressives need their presidency. I kind of think they
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: got a half version of it in Biden, but they're
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: gonna want there. Can't tell you how many progressives I
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: talked to on the even on the consultant side. You say,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: I want my own Trump. You know, I want my
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: own project twenty twenty nine, and you know they want
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: to try that, right. I just have a feeling we
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: haven't exhausted this yet. No, we haven't, and we'll get there.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: But it may take the question is does it does
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: it take some like you know, it took a great
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: depression right to get the FDR coalition, arguably right, you
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: had to have an economic catastrophe in order to get that.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: So we're just you know, I abide by what Churchill says,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: America will always do the right thing eventually, after we've
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: exhausted all the wrong paths.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: I think we're going to have to get the current
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: generation off the stage'll.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: I think when the boomers age out of I like
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: to call it age out of voting.
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no longer participating. Yes, But I think that
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: I think we're going to look at the let me
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: make two points the first years. I think whatever happens
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: in the in terms of elections, which I think the
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Democrats will do well, and we can talk about that
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: if you want.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: I do want to talk about it. I think that
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: degrees of it. But to me, the real question is
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: are they gonna overlearn? Are they gonna they're gonna overreact
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: or underreact to what they do?
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: But I don't think even the Crest do really well.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: I don't think the twenty six midterms will tell you
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: anything about the twenty twenty eight elections, just like the
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: two biggest midterms since World War Two or ninety four
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: and twenty ten for Republicans, and they lost the White
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: House two years later. So the first thing is, well,
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: midterms are important, particularly as it relates to the final
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: two years of Trump's presidency. They really don't tell you
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: anything about twenty twenty eight and then. But I believe
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: the twenty twenty eight election, the one that's most similar
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: to it is going to be the nineteen sixty election,
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: which is we've been living in this period in the
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: age of Trump since you wrote down the Escalator. The
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight election is about the future of America
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: posts Trump, and I think we're gonna have a generational
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: change in leadership in twenty eight what the country's dying for,
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: just as we did in nineteen sixty. Where we really
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: moved in nineteen sixty away from the World War Two era,
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: the World War Two leadership to Kennedy and basically, you know,
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: the new modern America. Twenty twenty eight I think will
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: be the transition generationally of leadership which the country has
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: been pining for. But it's going to be the beginning
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: of this whole post world, post Trump world that we
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: are no longer even in the vapors of World War
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Two in terms of our place in the world, our allies,
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: our relationship, and those are the states.
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: I guess I don't. Only My only concern is, are
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: you sure Trump's off the stage. I'm not talking about
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: him running again, but I think him being in office,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: him influencing that are we going to get? I agree
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: we're going to have the post Trump era is going
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: to be sort of a new opening. Is twenty eighth
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: post Trump? Yet you see we're going.
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: I think that. So I have no idea about what's
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: gonna happen to the Democratic Party in twenty eight, but
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: I think in the Republican Party you're going to have
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: a MAGA candidate in a non MAGA candidate, and the
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: MAGA candidate will either be Answer Ribia or both of
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: them in some configuration. And there'll be a non MAGA candidate,
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: and that I guess today would be Cruz and Trump
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: and his operation will control the process for the nomination,
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: which could have a big impact. But I think that
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: if you look at the polling of self identified Republicans,
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: NBC did a poll I think, you know, in April,
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: and it was like by sixteen points or something people
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: said they were Republican because of MAGA. There were MAGA.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: Now it's fifty to fifty.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: So I've noticed that number is moving, and everybody asked
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: it slightly different. You consider yourself more Republican than you
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: are MAGA or MAGA then a Republican. And it is
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: always correlated with Trump's approval rating. Yes, when he's when
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: he's basically on a downward trend, mag identification goes down.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: When he's on an upward trend, mag identification goes up.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Here was the Marquette poll, which I like is an
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: I think that guy does a good job on the
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: national level too. This was this was last month and
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: it you know, I'm not going to be a conspiracy here,
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: but I think people didn't like this news nugget, so
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: it didn't get the attention it deserved. The Republican Party,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party, and MAGA were all tested in a favorable rating.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: The Republican Party had the highest favor rating, then the
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party, then MAGA. But Democrats were closer to MAGA
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: than they were the Republicans, and there was like a
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: four or five point I mean, it was a it was,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: it was it was a semi significant And the fact
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: that that is not and this maybe is a good
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: way to transition. The Democratic Party's brand is not improving
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: as they get stronger in the midterms. What does that
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: tell you.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: Well, that the country doesn't trust the Democratic Party to
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: protect them for their security or with their money. And
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: if you look at it, but if you look at
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: the but.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: They're going to vote for him this election. Referdum.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: That's the very point. Though this is a in fact,
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: and I'll jump to twenty.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: Off.
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: Yers are referendums on the incumbent party. Presidential elections are choices.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: I think the single most important determinant of who wins
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: the twenty twenty eight election is going to be who
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: the Democrats nominate. I don't think the country is going
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: to want another Republican after Trump. But if we don't
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: give people a reason to vote for us, they will
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: default too against us. The last thing I'll say. And
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: he told me he had an important milestone. You're didn't
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: tell me which one, So I'll just talk about my
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: life for a moment. In my life, there have been
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: three campaigns that turn into movements, and the first was Reagan,
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: and that was a that became a political movement that
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: was and I'm talking now as someone who worked in
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: the Clinton white House in the nineties. Reagan's victory in
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: eighty ushered in the governing dominant government governing in America
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: through the two thousand and eight end of Lussia's second term.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: Here I use this as an example. I always say this,
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: how do you know when parties have won an argument
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: when the party that loses starts to echo what the
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: party that wins says. In the nineteen ninety I think
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: it's the ninety five State of the Union, when Bill
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: Clinton says the era of big government is over. That
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: is when Reagan we That is when the Democrats acknowledged, Okay,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: Reagan won the argument.
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: That was in ninety five and the and the Reagan
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: political movement project ended with Rodney's defeat in twenty twelve,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: and if you look at after that election is when
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: everything changed in Trump's victory in twenty six. So and
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: then the second campaign that turned the movement was Obamas, right,
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: and that really only lasted two years. And then at
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: that point Obama was just a candidate again, he.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: Just became a convensional.
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: And then the third was Trump. And so I believe
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: that Trump, the Trump movement is is much more similar
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: to the Obama movement, which was it's not transferable, unlike Reagan.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Reagan's the only one where it was transferable.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: Well, but was it transferable? I mean I almost not.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Reagan had a sixth Let me throw this at you.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: If Reagan has a fifty two percent job rating instead
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: of a sixty, does Michael Ducaccus get losing a blowout?
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: Probably not right, No, because the end of the day
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: they devoted against the caucus.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: Now I think he loses anyway, but it might be closer.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so, but although although by the way, if
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: you look at the electoral college map from the nineteen
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: eighty eight election, it was the foundation of the modern
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: Democratic electoral map until sixteen. That was that became the
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: base states. But anyway, just lastly, but if you look
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: at Trump and Trumpism, which is really wrapped around the
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: actle of his personality, they're like six tribes that some
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: of them are directly in confident with each other. And
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: and I don't think that's transferable. And you know, you
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: can say some positive none come to mind, but you
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: can say some positive things about the vice president. But
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: one thing you can't say about him is that he's
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: very charismatic or that he can emotionally connect with people.
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: And so I think it's not going to be I
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: don't think trump Ism is going to be I think
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a big factor in the Republican
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: nomination process, but I don't think it's going to be
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: that big a factor in general.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I still think there's a greater than five percent
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: chance that a somebody with the last name of Trump
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: flirts and gets semi serious. Well, maybe it's either Junior
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: or Eric, and I don't I'm not playing any games
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: here about the old man. This is about Junior Eric
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: and even you know, and I wouldn't even rule out
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: Laura Trump. She definitely has the ambition, probably more than
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: any of them do. But well, I've been told I've
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: always thought Trump would be more engaged in twenty eight
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: if somebody with his last name is is running, Well, that's.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: Totally for sure. I have been told that they have
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: been testing Don Junior's numbers in polling.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: They have or have not. Half interesting. Well, look just
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: the name, you know, the irony is Eric's probably the
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: more competent one from my reporting. Well there's that. And
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: who does who does? Who does the president trust with
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: his business? And ain't Junior?
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: Well sure, probably trust's daughter more than well, that could
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: be as well.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: Well, I it's interesting that you bring up ninety four
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: and ten. And another one I was thinking of was
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: eighty six, which was a pretty good midterm for Democrats,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: more on the Senate side than the House side, but
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: they literally win a chamber And of course it was
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: meaningless as far as eighty eight was concerned, but six
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: was a midterm that felt like it was the beginning
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: of turning a page on the Bush era. Right, people
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: were exhausted from the war, people were exhausted from w
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: They were looking for a reason to go with the Democrats.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: They gave them. They gave them majorities in six and
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: then essentially it was Democrats to lose in O eight.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of Democrats who think that this
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: is what's happening, Like there are you know, a bunch
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: of Obama lums. Oh, this is going to be the
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: same thing. I'm skeptical. It sounds like you are too well.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: You brought up two interesting midterm, two interesting elections. So
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: the intelection was the only time since World War Two
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: where the country voting for one party to have the
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: White House three terms in a row. It's the only time,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: and I think that speaks to the power of the
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: Reagan movement. And I don't believe in eight I don't
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: see any scenario that the country was going to have
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: the Republicans in the White House three terms in a row,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: particularly after Bush's eight years. So but going back to
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: what I said earlier about twenty eight, that's why I
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: think it all comes down to the Democrats. I don't
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: think it's inevitable that the Democrats are going to win
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: because the country doesn't want to vote the Republicans. But
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: I think the country doesn't want to vote for the Republicans.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: But because there's such a lack of confidence in the
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: Democratic Party now, and it's going to matter who we
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: nominate and That's why I think that's going to be
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: the most important factor. And who controls the White House
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: in twenty eight more so than who the Republicans nominated.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: I am and I will confess my confirmation bias on
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: the following, meaning, I'm always looking for signs that these
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: two major parties are fracturing and that there's an opportunity
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: for I'm not a believer that we will have a
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: sustained three or four party movement. I think I think
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: that you know, the most, you know, the most effective
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: third party in American history is a Republican, the Republican Party.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: They essentially replaced a party. So I say this with
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: the with at least believing that. But I look at
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: what's happening in the UK, which served as a pre
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: cur a warning to this populist uprising with Brexit, you know,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: happening before Trump, and there was definitely more connection than
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: not connection. And I and I'm obsessed with the fact
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: that the two major parties in the UK are both
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: finding themselves no longer sort of the two major parties. Right,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: you have this reform UK which is cutting into the
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: Tories in some ways. Mike could end up if the
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: election were today, they'd be the likely party forming the government.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: They would be the quote new right wing party, and
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: you have the right now the Greens or are chomping
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: at the ankles of labor. Labor couldn't be more unpopular,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: and it feels like that labor only won this last
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: time because well, where else were they going to go?
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: Voters wanted to get rid of this conservative government and
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: they basically felt like they were only had one option.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: But it struck me as boy they wish they had
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: other options. It just was what it was. I think
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: twent you know, look, I think it's my in twenty six,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: I'm obsessed with Montana in particular in Michigan, you know,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: Kevin Kylie out in California. If independence can win, not
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: just come close, can win in some of these places,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: I think there's going to be an appetite for some
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: paro like candidate in twenty twenty eight. Do you buy
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: that or does it? Once again, all depend on what
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: the Democrats do, Meaning if the Democrats go hard left
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: and end up with AOC, then it opens the door
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: for this sort of alternative lane here. Is that the
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: only scenario or do you foresee something else?
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: Well, it take a broad look at our lives now
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: compared to twenty years ago. There are all these institutions
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: twenty years ago that we were aligned with, and we
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: no longer care about the department stores and linear televisions
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: and you know where you get sports and how you shot.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know about you. I wanted to watch an
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: NBA game the other day to play in and I'm like,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: all right, let me try YouTube TV. No not there, right, Yeah,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: maybe it's NBA app No not there. Oh I found
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: it on Amazon Prime. Okay, that drove me nuts, but
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: I did find it eventually.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: Well, you should just go to my ESPN in a
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: list where it's being showed that. The broad point is
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: we're going through a historical period change in our country.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: As we moved from a twentieth century top down, you know,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: manufacturing economy, the twenty first century digital global war. We
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: are shedding all these old institutions that are no longer
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: responsive to people's lives. And I think it's inevitable at
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: some point that the same thing will happen with our
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: political parties. We'll probably have a conservative party, progressive party.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: But I don't think that's going to happen you know,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: any time in the immediate future. Now, if you want
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: to talk about a third party candidate in twenty eight
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: who can impact the election, that's one thing, and that
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: could easily happen. But I don't think that they're going
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: to be elected president. But I do think probably not
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: in my life time, maybe in your lifetime, but you know,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: fifteen twenty years from now, I think our parties are
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: going to go by the wayside of all these outdated
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: institutions that are no longer really where people are in
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: their lives.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Do you what did you learn from Hungary?
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: I think probably at some point, if you can't make
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: people's lives better and you're righte with corruption, then you're
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: going to be noted out of office. I don't care
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: who you are, where you're from. And those people Obon
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: had driven that economy into the ground. People's lives were
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: terrible and it was a culture of corruption.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: I'm just intrigued that it was a defector that became
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: the the It was a new party number one, or
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: you know, a reanimated old party, if you want to
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: be technical about it. I guess it was around and
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: it was somebody who was on that you know, didn't
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: come from somebody ideologically as far away from Morbond as
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: you can get. To the contrary, it came from somebody
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: who had married into the into the regime. And I
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: don't I think that's relevant.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he's not, he's not a reformer.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: But if you're trying to win a big enough majority, right,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: you're going to have to figure out how to win
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: some of the other Senate.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: Well, that's right, although you know, I don't know enough
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: about Hungarian politics, but I suspect that there's not really
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: a robust opposition infrastructure that was ready for the moment
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: as well. But I think from the broader sense, though,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: if you're you know, a right of center populace in
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: the world, Trump has become toxic for you. I mean,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: he's rapidly coming to a point that he has very
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: few allies around the world.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: You said something earlier about in responding to the idea
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party was unpopular because you said something
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: about people don't feel that the party can protect them
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: financially or protect them period. Right security boyd, does that
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: sound like the Democratic Party's brand in nineteen ninety one?
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: It's awfully familiar, is it not?
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: Well, it is. And you know, one way you can
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: look at politics in a very unsophisticated way, is the
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: party that's tired of losing the most is the party
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: that's probably going to win the next election. So at
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: some point you've just gotten your head beat in so
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: much that you to start making the compromises on your
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: issues to try to win an election because you just
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: tired losing. Well, I think in ninety one, yeah.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: I buy that. That's why I'm wondering if there's I
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: don't buy that there's been enough tires tired of losing
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: on the left yet.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: Well no, And then you know, it's a funny thing
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: about the left. And well, let me say two things
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: that are contradictory. The first is in the world may
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: have changed by the way, But the first is, I
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: think you have to go back to nineteen seventy two
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: or maybe eighty four, but you have to go back
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: at least that far for the Democratic Party have nominated
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: the most left wing candidate. See really, I think you
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: go back all the way to McGovern to find the
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: last time that the Democrats nominated the person furthest to
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: the left. And I think I don't think Trump Caltrady
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: you have to go back to nineteen eighty. It was
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: the last time the Republicans nominated the most right wing
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: candidate in Reagan, the last time. Now, a lot's changed
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: in the world, and maybe history doesn't repeat itself, but
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: so far, at least for the last over half a century,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: people in both parties have tended to make the more
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: pragmatic decision of who to nominate in terms of winning
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: the other thing. Though to your point, you know, the
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: progressive sort of you know, lost the battle lost, what
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: the battle lost? The war in a sense that they
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: have dominated the policy positions a Democratic party in the
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: twenty sixteen election, twenty twenty election, in the twenty twenty
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: four election, but they didn't nominate their candidate. So if
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: you look at candidate Clinton in sixteen, truth nothing like
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: Senator Clinton. And if you look at candidate Biden in
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: twenty in President Biden, he had nothing to do his
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: positions for thirty eight years he was in the Senate
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: because the Progressives won the debate within the party, but
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: they didn't win the campaign to nominate one of their own.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: So the question, of course, then as we sit here
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: is you know, what do they how do they feel Now.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: Well, conservatives felt that way about McCain and Romney. They
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: won all the arguments internally, right, we know how they
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: and yet they couldn't ever get a They never got
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: their own candidate, right, They could never get the most
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: conservative in a eight and the most conservative in twelve.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: So that's why, and that's why so many of them said, script,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: we'll try Trump. Why not? Right?
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: And that's why though, as I said, you know, you
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: have to go all the way back to eighty for
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: the Republicans.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I agree with you that eighty
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: he was the By eighty he had softened his image.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: Reagan.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this was grated on the curve.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: Okay, here to Bush, who was the most conservative candidate?
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: Right, Well, there were a million. Hell, Larry Presler was
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: running a crazy right wing campaign in seventy nine.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: But I'm saying that, well, mainstream candidates.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: He was clearly he was demor he was he was.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you can't go back since nineteen eighty forty five
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: years is the last time that happened. Now, because things
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: have changed so much, maybe it'll be different that in
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: twenty eight with their progressors.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about twenty six, you pretty much
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: believe the House is over.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: Well ever since Donald Trump ha got elected president. I know, right,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: and I think the House is We'll we just talk
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: as a Democrat for a moment about what I'm wildly
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: optimistic about, and then my concerns. What I'm wildly optimistic
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: about is the political environment that we're gonna have in November,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: after all the ballots have been cast. Uh, you know,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: Trump's drive approval is six seven points lower than Clinton's
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: in ninety four, and you know Obama's in twenty ten,
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: and you look at at you know, all the fifteen
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: elections and sixteen elections we've got, you know, we're going ravaged,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: like fourteen points higher performance than Harris's total in twenty
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: four right track, wrong track, inflation. So all those things,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: I'm wildly optimistic about what the political environment's going to be.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: My concern is the structural changes in American politics in
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: which all politics is now national, and that for us
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: as Democrats, we don't they're not nearly as many competitive
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: House races that we can run in a blue tsunami
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: as there was ten or fifteen years ago. So there currently,
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: you know, fortune and thirty five House seats. According to
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: Cook Report, about four hundred of them are not considered
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: competitive right now now. But if we start running the
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: numbers over there, there are nine districts currently that have
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: a Republican member of the House at Harris carried, and
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: they're twenty one districts that Trump won by less than
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: ten points. That's thirty seats. That's not bad, but it's
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: not loosen. You then have another fifty five where Trump
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: won between ten and twenty percent. So it just shows you,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: you know, for Republicans won like over sixty seats in
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: twenty ten when Obama had like a six point job
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: of Google better than Trump right now. So it's the
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: structure that makes me concern and an the Senate. Of course,
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: it's worse because we can't take the Senate back without
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: holding all of our seats, right, but we've got to
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: win at least to assumer we do and win Maine
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: and North Carolina, we still got to win two states.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, find two more in the state, and your nominees
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: are Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas. Now look they're in
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: maybe throwing Montana right, none of them you would say
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: if I told you the presidency what's going to be
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: decided through those five you'd be in a fetal position.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: Right, and we have the again, his job approval seven
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: points worse than Obama's Wise and Clintons, so in name
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: one seven Senate seats. So it's instruction that makes me
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: the most concerned. Is a Democrat?
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: I so good? Great wave? I have said for me,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: the state of Iowa is the definition of wave. Meaning
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: if Democrats win, you know, one statewide, three house, three
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: of the four House seats, that's what I would expect
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: in a wave, maybe both state wides. Right, if things
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: are going well in Iowa is still as light red
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: as I think it still is, then like Iowa is
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: my Petrie dish, right, because it's got a lot going on, right,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: three competitive House seats, even the one that's not competitive
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: is open to open, an open Senate, open gov. Right,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: It's got everything going for it. And it has been
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: and it is, in theory been a state. It has
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: a memory of voting for the other parties. So in theory,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: in an environment like this, if you can't persuade that electorate,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: then maybe it's just not going to happen.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. I think you're missing another big
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: important helmet. I don't think it's light red, you know.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: I think with Trump's victory it is more than light red.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: But there are a couple of things operating in Iowa privile.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: It's the history of Iowa, which is a little bit
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: more contrarian than just the part it purely partisan state.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: And I think in twenty eighteen, Democrats it was a
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: good year. Obviously, Democrats got more votes for Congress statewide
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: than the Republicans. More importantly, for twenty six I don't
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: think there's a single state that's been more impacted by
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: tariffs den Iowa and by the war by the way,
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: with the cost of fertilizer. So I think there are
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: even more than other states, more uniquely impacted from Trump's
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: policies to other states.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: Well, so let's flip that script. If Democrats come up
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: short there with this, with all of this going in
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: their favor, what does that tell you long term or
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: even medium term about the Midwest and rural voters, Because
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can you.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: Can't tell me anything don't already know, okay, and you
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: know that the twenty five states the founding fathers had
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: to balance out densely populated areas with sparsely populated and
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: how do they treat everybody fairly? So they did it
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: by treating the House every state, every district is the
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: same population. So one California you have fifty two members
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: of the House and Ontana can have four. But in
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: the Senate they reward rural voters because it's two senators
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: for state, regardless of population. So they're twenty five states
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: that are largely rural that we as Democrats are not
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: competitive in, and that's fifty senators. We're not remotely competitive.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: So we don't win Iowa in November. It's not going
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: to tell me anything new that I haven't already seen,
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: which is we still aren't competitive with states with rural
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: disproportionate Are.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: You a major party? If you're not competitive in rural America?
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: You can't be a major party, right, I mean, you
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: can't have as your base the America that are college graduates.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: The math can work in a mid term because they
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: both hire, but it can't work. You can't be a
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: majority party of six percent of the people in the country.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: You don't have a college degree. Don't trust me, you
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: know in your in your.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: What am I I'm like losing the name of what
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: you call this in your PowerPoint. Sorry. The last slide
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: is the big contradiction slide, meaning everything about it is
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: sort of laying the case of how this is just
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: going to be terrible for the Republicans. A lot of
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: things going against you. You have a sour electorate about
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: the economy, everything, and then you show this big red
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: bar graph and this tiny little blue bar graph, and
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: it's basically representative of money and the massive financial advantage
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: nationally that Republicans have and Trump has in particular over
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: the Democrats. Look, you usually if you're the minority party,
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get out spent because the majority party in
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: theory has more chances to, you know, raise money and stuff.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: But there's always a ratio. What's your sense how much
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: can this money buy the Republicans? Is that? Is that?
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: Is it save the Senate level of money? Is that
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: the way you look at it.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: So the chart on the on the side deck shows
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: the outside money, which shows an overwhelming, overwhelming advantage of
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: Republicans have. If you look at the candidate money. On
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: the other other hand, the Democrats, the candidates themselves, are
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: are significantly out raising the Republicans. And the other though,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: is that Trump, who I don't think anybody would tell
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: you this, particularly a generous guy. I mean, he didn't
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: step into Texas in the primary, so they're gonna put
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: two hundred million dollars in Texas because of that. So
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: I don't think Trump is all that concerned about anybody
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: other than themselves. But the last thing I'll say is
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: I think the role of money is greatly exaggerating politics.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: In fact, I think it's a lagging indicator. And that's
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: why the candidate money it's worth watching because it shows you,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: you know, on the other side of the wall, the
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: candidates who have the most compelling candidacies are raising the
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: most money. And there are really only three buckets of
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: people to think about in the midterms. I'm not sure
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: money can fix fix it. And I go back to
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: Virginia in a moment. The first is, if you're a Republican,
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: how are you going to get your base to come
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: out and vote in this environment? And since Trump's been president,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: that base has never turned out when Trump's not on
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: the ballot. That's the first ones. The second issue is,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: if you hate Trump, are you going to vote? How's
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: money impact you. I don't think the money matters at all.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: Those if you had one hundred thousand people zero degree
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: weather in the streets in Minnesota in January protesting what
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: they did in Minnesota on ice, I think they're going
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: to vote in November. And then the third group are
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: these people that probably feel compelled to vote but are
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: pretty unhappy with everybody. I don't think you can put
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: money behind a message to convince them to feel something
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: that they don't feel. And the polling, the trend lines
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: are consistent, The polling is consistent, and that remember I
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: told you earlier, you have the forty that like Trump
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: no matter what, they will stick with him all. It's
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: softening a little, but it's unclear whether they're gonna go
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: lot and vote for him when he's on the ballot.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: The haters of forty five percent are highly motivated, but
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: it's a fifteen percent that voted for him over Harris.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: They I don't think, felt that they got what they
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: signed up for in terms of what kind of president
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: was going to be. And I think that money's not
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: going to fix that.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: So this gets it too, and this is going to
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: sound I'm going to ask a question that's semi pollyannish,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: but it really is for the for the people listening
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: to this conversation, because I'm genuinely curious how you would
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: advise people. I'm working with a group of people that
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: are just trying to figure out how can we take
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: the obsession with swing voters in swing states and all
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: of the effort that goes to persuade these these cranky independents,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: because that's kind of what they are, right, And I
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: say this, you know, I think I count I count
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: myself as a cranky non partisan, whatever that means. But
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: they're never represented in legislation in Congress, right, So it
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: is the biggest problem is how do you translate because
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: you talk about, right, the difference between Trump being president
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: and not president is this same group of voters who
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: have been sour and you know who's got the least
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: amount of representation in Congress that group of voters, And
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: it has been the biggest disconnect because Congress behaves much
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: more partisan lely than the voters who decide who gets control.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: And we have this big disconnect and I don't know
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: some of its structural, but how would you advise people
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: who want to empower so that swing voters feel like
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: the legislation's thinking about them first rather than the partisan basis.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: First, well, I'm not sure that the path to get
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: through where you want to get is through the passage legislation. First,
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: of what we other than the big beautiful bill, this
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: Republic in Washington has actually accomplished nothing they've passed on
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: the legislation.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: Everything this is an effective period, but this is forty years.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: Everything that Trump has done has been through executive orders
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: and executive powers. The problem in our country right now
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: is the incentive system. Both parties are incentivized, whether it's
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: from the left of the right, it takes because of
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: the structure in our politics now, they're more vulnerable to
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: lose the primary than a general election. And so there's
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: just right now that there's no way, based on the incentives,
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: that you're going to get what you want through legislation.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: And we have been and I think will continue to
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: be until we kind of break out of this standoff,
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: which I think again will probably be the next decades.
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: Mostly right now, it's it's much easier to make an
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: argument against somebody that is for somebody. Eventually, though, someone
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: will step forward with a vision for the future, creating
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: in this new twenty first century digital global economy, opportunities
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: for everyone regardless of education, and that's going to be
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: the pathway to people starting to vote. But right now,
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: the visions in those two big buckets has mentioned that
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: it's eighty five percent. It's cultural as much as anything else.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: That's why Biden finn understand all he'd done for labor
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: union workers, why didn't people in Michigan vote for him?
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: And the answer was they were culturally connected to Trump,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: not to him. And that's our standoff right now, and
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: we're not going to that's not going to change, I
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: don't think anytime soon. And I don't think it's going
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: to be based on passing legislation.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: So I got some insight from somebody who was in
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: the Biden White House, and I said, you guys win
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: the presidency, did you have two plans? One if you
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: had control of both the House and the Senate and
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: one if you didn't. And they said they did, And
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: of course, you know, January fifth hands in the Senate,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: January sixth happens, which I think created another kind of
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: incentive to push them even to go bigger, go home.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: Mindset of all the great alternative what if scenarios, If
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: Biden has a Republican Senate instead of winning both of
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: those Georgia runoffs, it is the Democratic Party's brand in
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: better shape today or not.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: Well, you have to make the same argument, by the way,
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: that if the Democrats had narrowly controlled the House now
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: you know, with Trump, had been a better position.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: So I think there are a couple of things I would
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: say about that. The first was the Biden built his
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: administration under the assumption of a Republican Senate.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: He sure did so.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: By the time, you know, we'd won those Georgia seats,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: he'd already his cabinet. But the other issue, which I
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: think is the most significant in going back to Bush, so,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: Biden is the first person elected president since George H. W.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: Bush and eighty eight. He's the first person nominated for
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: president that did not have a political base, the only base.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: He has said that out loud a few times on air.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: You wouldn't believe the angry lefties that beat me up,
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: whether it was like Pod Save America or these others,
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, I'm sorry, he doesn't have a base.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: He never has history stint so he basically had a
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: confederation of six different special interest groups that he owed
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: his presidency too, and he ran his presidency to satisfy them.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: And so I'll tell you one last thing. This is
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: quite interesting. So I I did a lot of work
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: in academia, and I host a lot of panels, and
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: I invite Trump people and Bush people and at Trump
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: people in Biden people. And I've had two Biden people
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: in the last six months. Am I doing this where
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: I asked them point blank if we if we didn't
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: have COVID and Biden got to leave the basement and campaign,
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: would you have won the election in twenty twenty And
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: they both said no, they wouldn't have.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: So these were That's interesting because I believe that.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: These are so. Twenty twenty was a highly unusual, almost
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: accidental presidency with Biden without a political base. And you mentioned,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: by the way, the last thing, which is a similarity.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: So you talked about how the starmar won.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: A year ago labor Yeah, big like it looks like
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: it's kind of like Biden and looked large.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: He won. So the strategy in the campaign was to
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: win the election. And this strategy to win the election
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: was to say nothing and just make the opposition. So
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: that's fine to win an election, but the problem is
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: when you take office, uh, and you don't know why
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: you want. You wanted to win because you want to win,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: but you didn't have any plan or what you want
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: to do when you got there. Shows up every day
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: in his government.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: Who's who are the four or five potential presidential candidates
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: that you you have seen early on? Go huh? They're
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: at least trying something new. I want to see how
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: that plays out, you know. Not that I'm not pinning
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: you down, you know, And I don't want to get
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: any of these candidates in trouble, you know type of thing.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: But who do you feel like onto something? And frankly
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: the other way, who do you think is probably doing
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: this the wrong way?
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: Well, I, first of all, I have no idea. You know,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: the the job description for running for president, We don't
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: know what it is yet because we don't know what
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: the country is going to look like two years now.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter could have run for president every year of
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: our country's history, and the only Yerea would have won
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: it was a YEARI ran, right, So we don't know
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: where we're going to be But what I've learned is
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: the most important thing if you're running for president this
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: far out is to figure out why you're running, be
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: able to articulate it in a way that people can
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: understand and get your voice. So Bill Clinton and Obama,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: who I think turned both out to be pretty amn
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: good candidates. There were terrible candidates when they announced, but
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: they you know, Clinton, by the end of ninety one,
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: in a series of speeches in Georgetown, and I think
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: Obama seven at the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Iowa. They
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: got their voice. And so what I'm looking for right
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: now is someone who's who is trying to figure out,
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: you know, the rationale for their candidacy. And it's hard,
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: you know, take a year or two, and I see
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: very little of that right I'll give you one example
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: exception to moment. I see very little of that right now.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: And you know, guys that you know, the tweets and
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: you know, go back and forth with Trump, that's all fine,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: and that has nothing to do with alected president. And
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: I don't see I believe this field is I guess
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: I'll just say it out. I think this probably this
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: field right now is the weakest Democratic field seats two
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: thousand and four. And I don't see really right now
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: a lot going on in terms of people.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: We just said the ninety two field was weak. I'm
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: old enough to remember when they were the seven Dwarfs. Doug.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, my friend of mine, Ram Emmanuel is the one
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: person who is putting out policy right now.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: So that I wondered if you would say it, and
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: if you didn't, I was going to prod you on him.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: I think that too. I think he's the only one
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: doing something interesting.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: And he's he's talking about real things and real policies,
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: and I was going to change people's lives. And and
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: you know I told him once, you know, the notion
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: of five years ago that he was running for president
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: would be like, you know, you think as an article
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: of the Onion or some you know, some satire. But
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: you know, first of he's got a better resume than
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: anyone else running in terms of what he's accomplished. But
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: he also getting back to what I said to you
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: earlier about the times a Carter, I mean, we as Democrats,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: we need someone it's tough enough to take these guys
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: on and and and I'm not I don't want to
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: sit here and we have the impression that rom is
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: to be the next president. I state, But what I
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: answer your question to say, I believe is the only
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: person out there right now who's actually saying something that's
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: real and substantive and gives people a sense about that
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: if he became president, why would he want to be president?
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: What would he try to accomplish?
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: No, I I it is the only well of these
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: invisible primary candidates. So I completely agree. Everything else is
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: frankly a little performative, right, I mean, uh, I say
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: this in that you know the more I when I
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: spend time with Gavin Newsom, I think he's more substantiate
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: than than people give him credit for. But the version
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: most of the people see is something that isn't very substantive,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: and it feels like empty calories and and and you know,
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: it's it's certainly working in the moment, but it's a
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: little thin to me. And I don't know what he's
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: gonna What is other than learning how to oppose Trump?
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: What is? What is? You know, what is your story
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: going to be about?
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: Well?
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: First of all, what is your narrative?
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: First of all, he I mean, he's a governor of
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: a state that's bigger than all but seven countries. Yeah,
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: and he's governed it well. He's articulate. Uh, he looks
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: like he could be president, right, and and you know,
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: I think he's got muscle tone of mixing it up.
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: Having said all that, well, a big issue that he's
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: going to have against whoever he runs against is defending
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: what he did in California from a policy sandpoint, in
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: terms of how the rest of the country feels about
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: that becoming national balls and I think that's going to be.
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: Well, he's admitted it. He now he thinks it's a
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: branding problem, right, that the brand of California has been
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: so portrayed us so far left that it's more of
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: a perception problem than a substance problem. But it doesn't
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: matter whether it's perception or substance. Perception matters here, right.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: You know, you can complain about how it happened if
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: it's if that's the issue, that's the issue. And you know,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: I one of my little cheap taglines of late is,
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: you know, I think I know two places where Democrats
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: ought to not look for their next nominee, and that
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: is San Francisco or Boston. And you know, when you
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: think about the popular vote, Democrats have lost the popular
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: vote three times. The last three times they've lost the
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: popular vote was from a San Francisco Democrat or two
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: Massachusetts Democrats.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: Well, I think.
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: In those two places are seen as sort of liberal headquarters, right,
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: you know, for better or for worse.
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: Well, I think there's one sort of factory about California
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: you just can't get away from, which is that people
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: are leaving there in droves. Yeah, and why are they
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: leaving there? You're gonna lose probably four or five congressional
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: seats because of that. So uh. And then in terms
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: of of where someone should not be from, Uh, it
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: shouldn't be from I think Washington of the Senate. But
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: the side of defending the status quo. So, for instance,
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: I don't think Bortis Aire's gonna run for president. He's
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: been in Washington for thirty five years. Right, No one
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: thinks him as being from Washington.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: No one's gonna believe he's an insider, right, Right.
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: Reagan came from California. It was a little bit of
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: a different state. No one thought of him as some
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: you know, crazy California. So it's it's not just a
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: literal zip code. It's a it's a frame of mind.
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: I believe it, Doug Yeah, yeah, but.
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: I believe that I don't have it. That's been the
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: next president. I can tell you this, They're going to
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: be on the side of breaking things, not on the
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: side of defending the status quo. And that's the single
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: most important. I mean, you're on the wrong side of
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: history if you're defending the current state because it's not
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: working for people.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that. I guess we're going to get
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: a governor or even or someone else. But I agree.
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a conventional senator.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: But I grow canal who I think. I like him,
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: I respect him. I think he's really interesting. Uh he's
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: a little bit further to the left than I am
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: on them some things. He's got a lot of elements
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: of of where America is right now right, and he's
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: doing a lot of work. You know, you're seeing that,
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: you know, the populous left and right have more in
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: common than than the people in the middle. And you
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: know you've seen him working with Massey and others. You
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: saw Omar the other day Congress order for a minute,
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: start talking about you know, working with Marjorie Taylor Green
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: and and that's where the that's where the animating force
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: in American politics is now. It's it's the populace left
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: in the right, and it's largely and they come together
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: against the system. I wrote I leave you with I
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 2: wrote about twelve or thirteen years ago, where archical political call,
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: which side of the barricade are you on? Yeah, said defining,
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: And I believe that's the world we're in right now.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: But people Mundabi what in New York? They say, you
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: want to because he's the social No, he didn't want
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: a social one because he was breaking things, not the
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: status quo. And he was a generational change. And when
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: he went to the Oval office, and now with Trump,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: and everybody said, well, I can't believe they got along. Well,
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: they had a lot more in common than you'd think.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: They certainly had a lot of differences. But right, No,
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: and and.
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: Everybody has the uh. I always say, everybody has the
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: combination for Trump. It's not hard to make to have
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: a good event with Trump. If you want to have
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: a good event with Trump, whether it's a photo op
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: or whatever, it's he's he's weirdly an easy mark. He
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: is yeah, and and uh, the savvier politicians have figured
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: that out, whether it's Gretchen Whitmer and one end of
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: the spectrum or Mom Donnie on the other end of
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 1: the spectrum. Anyway, mister Sosnik, I always learn a lot
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: from you, so to.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: See sing here with you. Thanks for having me to look.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: Forward to my next semi quarterly report. Got it, brother, Well,
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: as I promised you, this is a politics heavy, uh,
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: sort of a campaign heavy episode. Hope you enjoyed that
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: conversation with Doug Sas Again, he is just one of
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: the smarter observers that are out there. I love his
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: quarterly power points that help sort of you know, you
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: take what you see every day and you start to
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: see him in these sort of three month snapshots, and
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: they start to and they start to bake in. And
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: I think that's the single most important thing you got
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: to realize. It's that this is starting to bake in.
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: You've heard of the metaphor the cake is baked, you know,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: things like that. I think the house is baked. We
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: just don't know how big that cake's going to be.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: For the Democrats, is it five to ten seats, is
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: it fifteen to twenty five seats. It's something even north
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: of that. Obviously, what happens in the aftermath of the
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: Virginia redistricting result and when it ends up triggering everywhere else,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: So we're still we actually still could be painting that picture.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: But I'm going to keep with the Obviously, it's Wednesday,
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: which means I have a new top five list top
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: and this is for the second week in a row.
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: I've got a reader inspired top five, and that is
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: top five overlooked races this cycle. And what do I mean?
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: What is the definition? It's it's it's races that the
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: parties are not prioritizing that maybe those of us that
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: are observing of our surprise that they're not prioritizing because
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: we think that with a little TLC they can be
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: competitive and potentially flippable. So these are five on my
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: list of five. I've got three Demo Republican health seats
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: and two Democrat account seats on this So that is
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: this top five. I'll talk to you about some other races
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: that I that I contemplated in this top five. But
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: fifth on the list of my top five of races
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: that the parties that I think the party out of
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: power in said race, is not prioritized and is making
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: a mistake. So number five in the list, I'm going
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: to go backwards here, five down to one Mber. Five
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: on the list is Florida Governor. Look, I see the math,
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: I see the trend lines. I know that the general
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: direction right now looks like boy, that's a you know,
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: Republicans have just beaten the daylights out of Democrats and
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: voter registration over the last four years. DeSantis has taken
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: what was a victory by a fingernail in twenty eighteen,
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: had a blowout by twenty twenty two, and it wasn't
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: It appears to not be a one off, right You
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: sort of see, you know, Trump won Florida more comfortably
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: than a Republican has won really going back thirty years
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: on a presidential level. So you look at it from
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: a macro level and you think, Okay, I get it.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: I get why Democrats are underrating Florida governor or are
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: deciding to essentially walk away from They're not taking Florida
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: seriously either. The the the semi open Senate race, I
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: say it's semi open because there's a uh, there's there's
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: an appointee. Uh there, but it's the Rubio seat. But
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 1: it is an open governor's race. And that's the key.
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: When a party does not target an open seat, that
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: is not just conceding that election cycle, that is conceding
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: a decade of an election cycle in a given state.
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: So you'll see here in some ways, I think that though,
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: when you concede not trying to make an open seat competitive,
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: I think it's just a gigantic waving of the white
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: flag that sends a larger message internally in that state
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: and sends a pretty negative message if you if you
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: think you would like to start to plant the seeds
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: to become more competitive, and said state, I get it. Byron,
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: Donald's has a truckload of money. The early endorsement by
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: Trump seemed to clear the field. The Santus would love
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: to find an alternative to Donalds and has really struggled
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: to do that because it is Donald Trump's Republican Party,
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: at least financially in the state of Florida. I'm not
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: as convinced that he has the iron grip with the
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: voters that it is as iron iron clad as they behave,
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: but it is financially there's no doubt. Right, Trump sent
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: the signal and all the money followed. So there's a
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: giant financial advantage of iron Donald's gonna have. But he's
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: really being treated almost as a governor in waiting. And
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: you know, look, the history of Florida on open governor's
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: races are usually highly competitive and you usually have you know,
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: pretty you know, the Floridians, there's always a new you know,
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: every two years, there's half a million new residents that
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: are voting in that state for the very first time
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: and aren't just you know, gonna likely knee jerk, just
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: a one party and so you know, it's pretty clear
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 1: that you know, donors have been told don't bother with Florida.
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: Now the center race Vinman, Alex Vinman, the brother of
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: Eugene Vinman, who's already a sitting member of Congress in Virginia.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: He raised a ton of money and he does well
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: in that sort of act blue circuit, raising money, you know,
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: in the online left, and he certainly in that sense
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: had you know, thanks to the impeachment emails over the years,
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: has a pretty effective list on the in the governor's
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: race there with those two Democrats, David Jolly Jerry Demmings
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: neither one of them, although Jerry Demings has valed Demings
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: list when she ran against Rubio and that was an
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: incredibly successful fundraising apparatus that again was sort of wasted
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: by National Democrats and Florida Democrats. So there is I
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: think walking away, not taking this race seriously, not trying
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: to prioritize Florida in general. You're not just walking away
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: from one race. I think the National Party is walking
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 1: away from the state for a decade, and it's it's
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: just a it's a huge miscalculation. But this look that
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: there are larger problems right that. You know, both parties
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 1: are kind of a mess strategically. The Democratic Party is
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: more of a mess. They really have. They've botched Florida
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: from six ways from Sunday and they've and there's another
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: state on here that I'll be highlighting where they've they've
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: really missed. They've really not put the effort in that
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: if they had been making efforts over a decade, this
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: would be the cycle they could actually see see it
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: come to fruition. So fifth on the list is Florida gov.
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: This is one where I think the Democrats are not
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: prioritizing it. I think the race will be it'll end
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: up being more competitive, It'll end up being a single
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: digit race despite the lack of prioritizing our national interests.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: Number four on the list for me is a is
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: a democratic helled seats Oregon governor. Now Oregon governor has
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: been sort of a little bit of a of a
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 1: lower profile version of Charlie Brown in the football that
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: New Jersey has had become over the years. For Republicans
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: on the East coast, Oregon is always much more competitive
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: than its reputation, right, you know, Oregon sandwich between Washington
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: and California. It's certainly had a long streak of Democratic governor.
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 1: So it's been a long time since Republicans. I don't
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: think they've won to They haven't had a Senate seat
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: a newly elected senator since the mid nineties with Gordon Smith,
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: but they've come quite close before. Right, this is not
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: a seventy thirty blue state. This really is a fifty
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: five to forty five, you know, on a good day
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: for Democrats. Now the national right, you know, Oregon is
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: a place that Republicans are only going to be more
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: competitive in good Republican years nationally. I think that there's
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: so I understand why you haven't seen too much here,
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 1: and there's also a sitting and a running for reelection
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: Tina Kotech. But they and arguably their lat the Republicans,
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: the three way race messed up their chances perhaps of
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: winning Oregon GOV. Back in twenty or two had been
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: just a two way race and the third party candidate
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: might have decided not to run. The sort of the
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: Phil Knight candidates, as I called her. She was a
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: former Democrat, became a became an independent, but she not
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: been in that race and had been co tech and
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: a sort of a sort of mainstream Republicans or a
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: non maga Republican. I think that's a winnable race for Republicans.
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 1: So look, twenty two was the year that they could
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: have done this, but they, you know it is it's
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: funny Oregon again. It is similar to what Democrats have
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: done in Florida. Republicans could be more competitive Oregon if
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: they just spent some time there, if they just and
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: they've had some luck targeting a few house seats. They
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: flipped the house seat or two that some people didn't
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: think they could flips. So it's clear it's on the ground.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: There's certainly questions about how Portland's been governed, which is
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: sort of I think made the suburbs of Portland a
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: bit more competitive potentially. Now part of it is I
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: think MAGA doesn't sell an organ and it's possible that
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: Oregon comes back into the semi competitive list of states.
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: And I say semi competitive there the light red, light
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: blue states that right now that may have an allergy
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: to Trump in particular, but in general, I feel like
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party doesn't know how to prioritize Oregon very well. Certainly,
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 1: this version of the Republican Party, which just you know,
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: the MAGA, the MAGA stuff just doesn't play in the coasts.
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: We've seen this. It just really doesn't play on the coast,
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: and that may be part of the problem. But I
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: definitely think it's a it's a race that's under prioritized
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: in a state that's under number three on the list
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: for me is Alabama governor. Now Doug Jones is running
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: and Tommy Tupperville's the likely Publican nominee. Tommy Tupperville there
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: were questions about whether he's even qualified to be governor,
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 1: and did he meet the seventh, the six year residency requirement.
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: There's some questions about that. You don't need the you
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 1: don't need to be a resident for you could literally,
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 1: you know, run for US Senate anywhere, just established residency
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: for a day and and you're as long as you're
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 1: a citizen and thirty years old, you could you could
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 1: run and win a Senate seat. That's most states have
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: hard and hard and fast residency requirements for governor. They
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: take that a lot more seriously. So you have a
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: candidate who's you know, not seen as very sort of
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: conversant on how Congress works, and they spent a term
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: there doing it hasn't been seen as somebody. You know,
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 1: most people want their governors to sort of be less partisan.
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 1: You know, they certainly expect them to be you know,
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: maybe in Alabama, small sea conservative, but they don't necessarily.
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 1: We usually don't want partisan warriors as governor. We usually
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: if we elect a partisan warrior, we'll do that for
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: a legislative seat. We're usually a little less comfortable collectively
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: as voters doing that for a governor seat. And you know,
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 1: so I think there's a case where Doug Jones and
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: you're more likely. If you're a Republican running in a
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: blue state or a Democrat running in a red state,
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 1: you're going to have a better chance at winning statewide
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: running for governor than you are for Senate. And this
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: isn't a bad Democratic gear. It looks like it's building
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 1: into one. So I've not seen the evidence that the
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: National Party is putting Alabama governor in play, is making
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 1: a real effort. Now, maybe you know, they might argue, well,
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: we're going to help Doug Jones when he's there, but
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: we don't want to bring a lot of attention to
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: it because the sooner they think he's a viable candidate.
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: The I don't buy that, right. He's a former US senator,
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: he got elected not that long ago, ironically running for governor.
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: Now he's going to be facing Tommy Tupperville for a
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: second time. He lost to him Tupperville defeat defeated Doug
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: Jones to win that Senate seat six years ago, and
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: now they'll be facing off again for this governor's race.
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 1: But I think Democrats have not given this the priority
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: compared to I think that the chances they have to win.
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 1: I think their chances are much higher here. And you
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: know then most people think, and you know, this is
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: another one that's gonna If you're telling me this is
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: a race that's decided by five points or less, it
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me. And if it is, there'll be a
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 1: lot of questions about, you know, hey, did they not
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: pay attention to this race soon enough? Number two on
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 1: my list is Texas Governor. I think this is one
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: where again this goes. You know, it's funny. Democrats are
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: pretty focused on the center race, but to me, the
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: governor's race. And this is where I thought why I
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: thought Taller Rico would have could have been a more
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: effective candidate for governor. He was in the state legislature.
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: He's more conversant on state issues. But he wanted the
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 1: easier path. He thought, you know, facing Ken Paxton might
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: be easier to win, and look, facing an incumbent governor
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: who's trying to become the longest serving governor in Texas history.
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: And you know, Abbot, I will give you know, Abbot
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: deserves I think a lot of credit for he is.
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: He is somehow he has somehow walk this tightrope in
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 1: Texas between the Maga wing and the non Mago wing
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 1: and he's not really a comfortable member of either. Right,
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: He's not really a Bush Republican, although he he sort
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: of was more Bush Republican at the beginning of his career.
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 1: But he's not really a Trump Republican either, right, he is.
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: He is something in between, right. He's not as much
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: of a firebrand as the Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is,
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: but he's never wanted Dan Patrick to get traction on
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: his right, so he he's tries to manage that from afar,
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: you know, regardless of what you think of as politics personally,
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 1: I'm impressed with how Abbot has navigated this over a
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: couple of cycles. You know, this could have We've seen
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: other Republicans try to play this game where they kind
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: of like kind of you know, they kind of are
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 1: a chameleon, right, and they're almost a and they just
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: sort of they seem And part of it is is
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 1: Abbot has a good relationship with the donor community in general,
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 1: and that seems to be I think what keeps him
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 1: keeps his head above water. But you know, I look
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 1: at the history of just you know, people trying to
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: run for third and fourth and terms as governor, and
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: and that's when fatigue kicks in. You know, we saw
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: it with the cuomos plural in both with Mario and
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 1: Andrew over the years, and I think that fatigue issue
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: is potentially ripe in Texas. We've already seen it. What's
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 1: been interesting is the Democratic nominee Gena. You know, so
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: I've not yet to see a poll where this where
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: the race wasn't already in single digits. It's pretty clear
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: Aben has a hard ceiling. What he's done on school
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: choice is not as popular among some pockets inside Republican
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party, as as he believes there's been in
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: some ways a Republican civil war that he has helped
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: fund inside the party, you know, getting rid of folks
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 1: that stood in his way on some of his agendas.
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: So the point is is that when you've done that,
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: you've made yourself a share of uh political enemies that
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: could come back to haunt And I look at his
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 1: I look at his numbers. Overall, they look like somebody
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 1: who is who is at the tail end of their career,
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: not necessarily continuing to build momentum. But I don't see
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 1: the commitment by the National Party. You don't see the
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: money coming into you know's campaign that would allow her
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 1: to take what is going to be a you know,
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 1: sitting at a six or seven point range for the
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 1: most part, and you know, you might have a tailwind
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 1: from all the money that comes in for the Senate
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 1: race of Paxton ends up winning the runoff, and who knows,
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 1: maybe this changes here, but I think the lack of
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 1: focus and attention to this race is a real missed
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 1: opportunity because if you're trying to build a party infrastructure
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: in a state that you'd like to make competitive, winning
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: a governor's race is much get you much further down
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: the road of building the infrastructure you need to make
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 1: a state party competitive than winning a senate seed does. Right,
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: And this is you know, it's another reminder that there's
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: just too much Washington thinking inside of the Democratic Party.
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 1: It is way too concentrated and what's best for the
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: national party In the Washington Party, they this is a
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 1: party that has just stopped thinking about party building in
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 1: the states, and you can feel it. Part of it is,
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 1: you know what's in front of them, right, you know,
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 1: they help out certain people if they think they can win,
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 1: see Rob sand in Iowa. But you don't get this
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: sense that this is a national party thinking about, Hey,
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 1: what's this map going to look like after the census
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: in twenty thirty and what do they need to do
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: to be prepared in twenty thirty two. And watching them
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 1: not prioritize either Texas or Florida in any way at all,
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 1: is I think putting them in a bad position for
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: the next decade when it comes to the electoral college
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 1: once we see these numbers change after the twenty thirty census.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: So Texas governor number two and number one on my
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: list is a Democratic health seat, and it's the open
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 1: seat in Minnesota Senate. It's it's Minnesota Senate, and it's
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: with the Republicans. They have just not prioritized Minnesota. And
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 1: it's surprising to me. You have a divisive Democratic primary,
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 1: you have basically a left versus pragmatist fight between Peggy
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: Flanagan and Angie Craig. You've gotten You've got an unpopular
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 1: governor sitting that is choosing not to seek reelection. Tim Walls. Yes,
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party's sort of best political juggernaut in the state.
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: Amy Klobashar is now going to be at the top
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 1: of the ticket running for governor, and it probably does
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: save the Democrats in that state from from what was
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 1: becoming a political problem with Walls. And so I'm not
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 1: going to sit here and say that that that if
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 1: the Republicans spent a little gave gave a little more
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: attention to Minnesota, they they'd win the Senate. See but
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 1: when I look at how much they put more effort
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 1: in trying to win New Hampshire the Minnesota, and if
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 1: I would, I think they have a better chance of
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 1: winning Minnesota than than New Hampshire. You don't have a
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 1: divisive Democratic primary in New Hampshire. You have a Chris
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 1: Pappis who's as a member of Congress is not seen
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 1: as a as a hard left winger. If anything, there's
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 1: a in the in the little item I featured earlier
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 1: in this podcast about bridge grades and this new metric.
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 1: Pappis is somebody who's seen as regularly works across the aisle.
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 1: So he fits the New Hampshire profile in a way
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: that in a way that maybe some other Democrats wouldn't
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 1: fit as well. So yes, they have you know two
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: now two former senators running in that Republican primary. But
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: it does seem as if that nationally, the Republicans have
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 1: prioritized New Hampshire for Minnesota, which, you know, again a
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 1: head scratcher. Now, look, the ice killings in Minnesota have
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 1: certainly put the Republican Party in a in a hole
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 1: there in Minnesota. That and maybe when Trump's not on
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: the not in power, that will provide an opening. But
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 1: and this could very well Michelle Tafoya could be running
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 1: a race where she learns a few lessons and then
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 1: runs again in two years for the a in a
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 1: special election to fill out the rest of Amy Klobshar's term,
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 1: which will pop up in twenty twenty eight, assuming Clobshar
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: went to the governor's race, and you will and they'll
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 1: prioritize it more. But it's funny. Minnesota has been teetering
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 1: on the edge of the competitive battleground for the presidential
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 1: race for a few cycles now. Not not prioritizing the
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 1: Senate race I think has been a head scratcher to
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 1: me and another potential missed opportunity there. So there you
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 1: have it. My top five sort of overlooked races where
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 1: I think the out party is mad, you know, would
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 1: be would actually have a reasonable chance at being competitive
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 1: and possibly pulling an upset if they actually put some
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 1: effort into it. So my order again. Number one Minnesota
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 1: Senate so dinging the Republicans there for their lack of interest.
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 1: Number two Texas Governor digging the Democrats for their lack
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 1: of interest. Number three Alabama Governor, dinging the Democrats there.
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 1: Number four Oregon governor ding in the Republicans there, and
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 1: number five Florida Governor digging the Democrats on that one.
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 1: So really appreciate the reader suggest questions on these top
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: five lists. Two weeks in a row where we've done
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 1: a top five list. So last week it was doing
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 1: the six through ten list on our Senate flips, which
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 1: the reader correctly pointed out as probably a more volatile
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 1: list than our five most likely to flip. And in
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 1: this case, how about five overlooked races that the parties
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 1: are whipping up. So there you have it.
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 2: Ask Chuck.
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 1: Hiright a little question time. This one comes from Travis
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 1: from Charlottesville, and he asked, after going back and forth
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 1: on the redistioning issue, I finally decided to vote yes,
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 1: mainly for two reasons. One, there is little else I
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 1: can do that may get the attention of elected officials,
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 1: and two to help Spamberger gain back a little bit
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 1: of her political capital. Wouldn't it be worse for a
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 1: governor to expend all this energy and money if it
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: resulted as a loss. In hearing your opinion on the second,
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: Thanks Travis, Well, we actually now know the result on
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 1: this front. But it's an interesting thesis here. It's like,
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 1: what's worse? You know, I I could I could see
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 1: Spamberger spinning a loss by saying I knew it. I
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 1: wanted to be a team player here and this this
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 1: was happening before I took office, and this was already
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 1: in the works. You know, this is not how we're
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 1: going to go forth, you know, you know I so
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 1: I guess I'm not. I get your line of thinking that,
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 1: you know, and certainly it helps her in the party right,
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 1: But to me, Spanberger didn't have a party issue. Spanberger
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 1: has a has a sort of governing issue now a
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 1: little bit. But you know, I still look at this
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 1: whole thing and all this energy, all this political can again,
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 1: if the map doesn't change one bit, Democrats likely pick
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 1: up one for sure, Virginia two, and likely a second
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 1: Virginia one. So all of this political capital has expended
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 1: for hope. They're hoping two more seats ten to one,
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 1: I say, hoping. Look if one of these primaries it's
• 2:03:22
  Speaker 1: too far to the left and the Republicans don't have
• 2:03:25
  Speaker 1: somebody who's too maga on the other side. You know,
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 1: this thing could easily end up a nine to two
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 1: map rather than a ten to one, and then you're
• 2:03:34
  Speaker 1: talking nine two to eighth. When you when you looked
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 1: at it from the big picture, this was you know,
• 2:03:42
  Speaker 1: especially now if this you know, if this trigger is
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 1: more redistricting going forward. So it's I understand that line
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 1: of thinking, and maybe that's right. But I could make
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 1: an argument that she could spin a loss and make
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 1: essentially the legislative Dems own that, and she could separate
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 1: herself from that if necessary. Next question comes from Pallo
• 2:04:16
  Speaker 1: in Italy. All right, I love when we get some
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 1: questions from Europe. I've been thinking about the phrase kem
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 1: deuce volts perdre prius dementat whom God wishes to destroy,
• 2:04:27
  Speaker 1: he first makes mad in the context of recent political
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 1: discussions around the twenty fifth Beenmute Kendall High, the bar
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 1: is in Congress, who would realistically be willing to support
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 1: such a move, And is there any scenario where the
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 1: kind of bipartisan agreement exists. More importantly, even if it
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 1: were possible, would the country necessarily be better off with
• 2:04:43
  Speaker 1: the alternative? And Italian we say something the effective, beware
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 1: of what you wish for, it might come true. Best
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 1: regards Palo in Italy. Well, I'll just say, you know,
• 2:04:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think any of these mechanisms that avoid the
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 1: ballot box to turn the page on Trump are going
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 1: to be effective. I think anything that gets Trump out
• 2:05:04
  Speaker 1: of office that isn't voters directed and voter specific risks
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 1: turning him into a martyr that becomes weaponized politically and
• 2:05:16
  Speaker 1: could actually make things worse, not better. So that's why
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not a you know, look, the twenty fifth Amendment,
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 1: why did we have it? We had it because there
• 2:05:25
  Speaker 1: was this concern after Kennedy was shot, what if he
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 1: had lived but was a vegetable, right, what if he
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 1: were the physical you know, but he really couldn't you know,
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 1: but there wasn't a lot of brain function, so he
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 1: were alive, but he really could, you know. Ultimately, that
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 1: is why the twenty fifth Amendment that was the thinking
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 1: behind the twenty fifth Amendment, Right, that was the motivation.
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 1: And I always think it's important, like why does an
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 1: amendment happen? Right? Why did they do it? I think
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 1: it is always it is important understand the context of
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 1: the twenty fifth Amendment. It is one of I think
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 1: it really is like pornography. Will know when we see it, right,
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 1: when you can realize, oh, there's they're not functioning at all.
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 1: But remember it has to come from inside the cabinet, right,
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 1: So I guess in theory, if the cabinet did it,
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 1: then then you know they're more They're only going to
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 1: this cabinet, right, which is filled with people who are
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 1: you know, who wouldn't get the job if they weren't
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 1: willing to be sick of fans of sorts. If somehow
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 1: this cabinet did it, it's probably it probably is such
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 1: a deterioration onhealth or mental capacity that it would be
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 1: weird if they didn't do it. Right, So, you know,
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 1: and it only happens if both Rubio and Advance think
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 1: it should happen. Right, that's a case where the two
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 1: of them, the two of them together said hey, this
• 2:06:49
  Speaker 1: needs to happen. It would happen. I just think the
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 1: likelihood of that, you know, again, a guy who got
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 1: into office by running against the so called deep state.
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 1: Not sure, it's not sure. It's the healthiest thing to
• 2:07:05
  Speaker 1: do to outsaid person through a through a mechanism that
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 1: isn't voters centric. But it's funny you say that, I
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 1: H I do. I say some similar things when those
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 1: that you know think about Trump Trump singularly, you know,
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 1: and fantasize about him sort of leaving office early. And
• 2:07:30
  Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, are you you prepared for advanced presidency?
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 1: Are you aware of how how close he is too?
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 1: One of the more out there tech people in Peter Thiel, Right,
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 1: So I I I also be careful what you wish
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 1: for is uh is a form of a similar form
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 1: of warning that I have issued to others when I'm
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 1: asked about that specific question. All right, next place. Next
• 2:08:10
  Speaker 1: question comes from Lincoln C. Who calls himself a displaced
• 2:08:14
  Speaker 1: New Englander in Columbus, Ohio. All right, all right, we
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 1: got it down. You like to refer to political athletes
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 1: when describing politicians. What do you think about vance and
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 1: how important do you think being a good political athlete
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 1: will be? In twenty twenty eight on the Republican side.
• 2:08:28
  Speaker 1: When I assume Trump will have an outsized hand in
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 1: picking the nominee, or maybe Trump's influence will have waned
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 1: in political athleticism will be even more important as the
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 1: eventual nominee will need to thread a narrow needle of
• 2:08:39
  Speaker 1: staying close to Trump to get the nomination and then
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 1: aggressively trying to appeal to the middle after the convention. Look,
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not impressed with JD. Vance and as a political athlete, right,
• 2:08:50
  Speaker 1: this has nothing to do with the individual. Doesn't mean
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have the potential, But I look at the
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 1: campaign he ran for Senate. It's an atrocious campaign. He
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 1: won despite himself, Right, he was dragged across the finish
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 1: line by Peter Thiel's money and eventually by Mitch McConnell's
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 1: super pack. He you know, was not going to win
• 2:09:10
  Speaker 1: a primary campaign if Trump hadn't come in late to
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 1: essentially rescue him. In that primary campaign, I think at
• 2:09:16
  Speaker 1: one point almost came to fisticuffs with Bernie Marino during
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 1: Remember Bernie Marino ran in the ran in the in
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 1: that primary in twenty two before he became the consensus
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 1: candidate in twenty four and knocked off Shared Brown. So
• 2:09:33
  Speaker 1: you know, the one campaign that Vance has been involved
• 2:09:36
  Speaker 1: with that was his campaign right on his own, was
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 1: not good at all. I mean, he he underperformed across
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 1: the board, right, he underperformed you know what his numbers
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 1: should have been, arguably, and you know that would have
• 2:09:52
  Speaker 1: you know, look at how Mike DeWine did versus how
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 1: Jade Vance did in Ohio in twenty twenty two. So,
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 1: I you know, I'm and I don't think we can
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 1: say he navigated the primary very well when you realize
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 1: that he kind of needed Trump to come in at
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 1: the last minute to secure this. So it is a
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 1: so needless to say. I think of the two, I
• 2:10:20
  Speaker 1: think Ruby is the much better political athlete because he
• 2:10:23
  Speaker 1: is won tough races and he's you know, one competitive primaries.
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 1: In some ways, he was you know, he was he
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 1: was a disruptor inside the Republican Party before Trump in
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 1: twenty ten when he essentially challenged Charlie Crist from the right.
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 1: When Charlie Crist was the sitting Republican governor wanting to
• 2:10:47
  Speaker 1: run for the Senate. Marco Rubia wanted that he and
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 1: he went in and it you know, he basically drove
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 1: Charlie crist out of the party. Right. So I think
• 2:10:57
  Speaker 1: when you look at just in terms of comparing the
• 2:10:59
  Speaker 1: two them as political athletes, it's not a close call
• 2:11:02
  Speaker 1: on's of blue chipper and ones an undrafted free agent,
• 2:11:09
  Speaker 1: you know. And and you know, maybe as as advance,
• 2:11:13
  Speaker 1: you know, gets gets more practice, you know, in the
• 2:11:16
  Speaker 1: national spotlight at Republican dinners, maybe he gets better at this.
• 2:11:20
  Speaker 1: But you know, look, I think twenty eight is going
• 2:11:24
  Speaker 1: to be who can you know, I think it's highly
• 2:11:29
  Speaker 1: unlikely a Republican's going to win the presidency in twenty eight, right,
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 1: We Doug Sosnik and I were having this conversation, right,
• 2:11:37
  Speaker 1: it is hard to fathom. And and you know it
• 2:11:40
  Speaker 1: is we've we've we're more likely and we're no matter what,
• 2:11:46
  Speaker 1: going to have our fourth straight one term president. You know,
• 2:11:49
  Speaker 1: we'll see if they end up a one term for sure.
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 1: We know we have three and you know we're gonna
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 1: have a fourth straight. And the question is is it
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 1: can that person win reelection? But it's hard to imagine
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 1: that Trump's somehow you know, I guess anything is possible,
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 1: but it's hard to imagine that that he his presidency
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 1: in lame duck status after the midterms, is somehow going
• 2:12:16
  Speaker 1: to age better than at any other point, and he
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 1: is going to be, you know, more involved in the
• 2:12:24
  Speaker 1: campaign than other outgoing presidents. Right. Obama was was was
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 1: less involved in Hillary Clinton, wanted to be more involved
• 2:12:33
  Speaker 1: in Gore, but wasn't. Bush wasn't involved with McCain. So
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 1: I Trump's not going to be that way. Trump's going
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 1: to try to insert himself and be very involved. If
• 2:12:47
  Speaker 1: it's somebody that's you know, if it's not Vance, then whoever,
• 2:12:51
  Speaker 1: then whoever beats Vance. It's got to be a pretty
• 2:12:55
  Speaker 1: good plue. It means they've navigated, They've somehow become the
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 1: the the most acceptable candidate to the non MAGA wing
• 2:13:04
  Speaker 1: while not being will also being acceptable to the magawing right.
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 1: That's not easy to do. I'm not sure it's possible,
• 2:13:12
  Speaker 1: right I did you know? I never would have said
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 1: Marco Rubio could pull that off before serving with Trump.
• 2:13:18
  Speaker 1: Maybe that is something he can do now, you know,
• 2:13:21
  Speaker 1: maybe that is improved and we shall see. But I
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 1: do think that if you're the Republicans, you can't you
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 1: can't just go totally non mag at all. Right, your
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 1: your entire coalition crumbles. But if you're trying to put
• 2:13:37
  Speaker 1: together a durable coalition that might survive post Trump and
• 2:13:40
  Speaker 1: post MAGA, it has to be you know, somebody who's
• 2:13:44
  Speaker 1: appealing to the non MAGA wing as Nikki Haley was right,
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 1: but is not as negative towards the MEGA community as
• 2:13:54
  Speaker 1: as Nicki Haley was. So that's the sweet spot. I
• 2:13:58
  Speaker 1: don't know if anybody can meet it. And the only
• 2:14:00
  Speaker 1: person I see out there that might be able to
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 1: walk that line like that is Marco Rubio. And you
• 2:14:06
  Speaker 1: know one other person i'd put out there who's done it,
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 1: I just don't know if he's got the charisma to
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 1: be a national party leader is the governor of Texas,
• 2:14:15
  Speaker 1: Craig Abbott. Next question comes from Mike in Honolulu. I
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 1: think I've had you chime in before Mike, and he says,
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 1: what are the longer term impacts to the US if
• 2:14:28
  Speaker 1: the administration really pulls out of NATO? For example, would
• 2:14:30
  Speaker 1: Norrad be crippled as we rely on the UK and
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 1: Norway capabilities? Also Canada. By the way, Fun Fact traveling
• 2:14:37
  Speaker 1: in Asia this week and the podcast downloads without ads
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 1: except for the ones you deliver. How about a Quin's
• 2:14:42
  Speaker 1: quarter zip for the five timers? Kidding of course, Thanks
• 2:14:44
  Speaker 1: Mike and Anlalu. Hey, thanks for letting our ad folks
• 2:14:47
  Speaker 1: know about this. Right, we can have special European rates
• 2:14:51
  Speaker 1: for those that you know, that's the extra bonus for
• 2:14:54
  Speaker 1: our ad sales team. So listen up, guys, right when
• 2:14:58
  Speaker 1: you go overseas, you know, the ads that matter the
• 2:15:02
  Speaker 1: most are the ones that that I'm reading. How about
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 1: that that's the European premium. It's coming. Appreciate that little
• 2:15:08
  Speaker 1: Look this is this should be of concern to us.
• 2:15:11
  Speaker 1: And you know Canada, Canada's cooper all of this cooperation
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 1: with the United States, right, we have this is generational.
• 2:15:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think we've fully you know, we're not going
• 2:15:24
  Speaker 1: to realize how much damage Trump has done to our
• 2:15:27
  Speaker 1: international alliances until we need them again, right, really need them.
• 2:15:32
  Speaker 1: And we haven't hit a moment where but it's going
• 2:15:34
  Speaker 1: to happen, right, it's inevitable. And when that becomes more
• 2:15:40
  Speaker 1: front and center and clear, you know, my guess is
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 1: you'll see voters demand better cooperation going on. We better
• 2:15:47
  Speaker 1: fix that relationship. I think that the next president is
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 1: going to have a hard time winning over the trust
• 2:15:54
  Speaker 1: of some of these a lot broken alliances. But I mean,
• 2:15:57
  Speaker 1: you know, we're we're we're between the tariffs, the erratic
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 1: security behavior, right, you know, we help Ukraine, No, we
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 1: don't help Ukraine. We help Ukraine. We're not going to
• 2:16:11
  Speaker 1: help Ukraine. The the disruption that the United States alone
• 2:16:18
  Speaker 1: has caused the world by doing by poorly executing this
• 2:16:23
  Speaker 1: war in Iran. Yeah, it's gonna frail lot. It's gonna
• 2:16:27
  Speaker 1: it's gonna take a lot more than just a so
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 1: called apology tour, which some of the right accused Barack
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 1: Obama on. But Barack Obama had to repair some relationships
• 2:16:35
  Speaker 1: who were who who were frustrated with the Bush led
• 2:16:41
  Speaker 1: the United States. But they you know, they at least felt,
• 2:16:46
  Speaker 1: you know, he didn't try to blow NATO up and
• 2:16:48
  Speaker 1: things like that. It's, uh, this is going to be
• 2:16:53
  Speaker 1: a real challenge for the next president and regardless of
• 2:16:56
  Speaker 1: party on this one. Uh. It's why frankly, I think
• 2:17:01
  Speaker 1: the fastest way to repair our alliances is if we
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 1: end up electing somebody who's not a member of either
• 2:17:07
  Speaker 1: of the two major parties, because then that would send
• 2:17:10
  Speaker 1: the message to the world that Hey, we didn't like
• 2:17:12
  Speaker 1: this either, and we're trying to chart a new course.
• 2:17:16
  Speaker 1: And if we make a statement that we're truly trying
• 2:17:18
  Speaker 1: to chart a new course, the world's likely to have
• 2:17:22
  Speaker 1: more of an open hand for us than if we're
• 2:17:26
  Speaker 1: continue to look like we're in this seesaw. Because if
• 2:17:29
  Speaker 1: we're in the seesaw, even if you think, oh, this
• 2:17:31
  Speaker 1: administration is better than the previous one, but it won't last,
• 2:17:35
  Speaker 1: we know. We know what's going to happen because we've
• 2:17:38
  Speaker 1: we've been watching this movie over the last decade. So
• 2:17:41
  Speaker 1: I think that's that's going to be that medium to
• 2:17:43
  Speaker 1: long term challenger. All right, let me uh. Next one
• 2:17:49
  Speaker 1: comes from Esteva. I hope I got that right. It
• 2:17:53
  Speaker 1: is a Stevam instead of a Stefan Stevan. Hey, Chuck,
• 2:17:59
  Speaker 1: I hope this mestionis you well. Love the podcast, been
• 2:18:01
  Speaker 1: listening since episode one from your time at NBC right
• 2:18:03
  Speaker 1: on back in the old nineteen forty seven days. In
• 2:18:06
  Speaker 1: your opinion, which piece of Republican legislation democrats misunderstand the most?
• 2:18:09
  Speaker 1: Which piece of democratic legislation to Republicans misunderstand the most?
• 2:18:12
  Speaker 1: Love to get your commentary on this. Thank you, for
• 2:18:14
  Speaker 1: all you doing, best of luck moving forward. Hm that
• 2:18:21
  Speaker 1: they misunderstand. Huh, misunderstand. I think the I mean the
• 2:18:34
  Speaker 1: easy the first thing I thought of, and I'm going
• 2:18:38
  Speaker 1: to stick with that for now. The first thing I
• 2:18:41
  Speaker 1: sought of was the border security stuff and the border
• 2:18:49
  Speaker 1: security proposals them. And I think in this case it's
• 2:18:55
  Speaker 1: Democrats have always just sort of miss you know, you
• 2:18:59
  Speaker 1: can agree to some similar legislation, you don't have to
• 2:19:02
  Speaker 1: use the same rhetoric. And I think Democrats, you know,
• 2:19:05
  Speaker 1: there's nothing wrong with having rules for the border, and
• 2:19:09
  Speaker 1: why Democrats don't say, no, we have to have borders.
• 2:19:13
  Speaker 1: And you're starting to see more more sort of pragmatic
• 2:19:16
  Speaker 1: Democrats express that that no, there should be borders, there
• 2:19:19
  Speaker 1: should be rules, you know. I think the I think
• 2:19:25
  Speaker 1: I would put the border security Look, I think asylum
• 2:19:28
  Speaker 1: policy is different, and immigration policy is different, and in fact,
• 2:19:35
  Speaker 1: I think I think I think the Republicans intentionally mislead
• 2:19:41
  Speaker 1: on immigration policy because most immigration policy is about trying
• 2:19:45
  Speaker 1: to fill the gaps, you know where. It's the biggest
• 2:19:53
  Speaker 1: bizarre myth out there that somehow the Democrats immigration stance
• 2:19:57
  Speaker 1: has to do with finding new voters. The math there's
• 2:20:01
  Speaker 1: no data that supports this accusation, and it is something
• 2:20:06
  Speaker 1: that like the prime time of some of these far
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 1: right news organizations have been dining out on that Democrats
• 2:20:11
  Speaker 1: are opening the borders looking for new voters, when there's
• 2:20:16
  Speaker 1: just no evidence that first generation immigrants, you know, somehow
• 2:20:19
  Speaker 1: favor the Democrats over the Republicans, and they somehow even vote.
• 2:20:23
  Speaker 1: And then how often you know, it's it's it's a
• 2:20:27
  Speaker 1: it's basically an unconfirmed myth, right, there's not even a
• 2:20:31
  Speaker 1: grain of truth to it, and that's probably now is it?
• 2:20:36
  Speaker 2: Is? It?
• 2:20:37
  Speaker 1: Is it? You know? I think I do think Republicans,
• 2:20:42
  Speaker 1: whether they intentionally want to not understand what why Democrats
• 2:20:46
  Speaker 1: are for, are are certainly pro sort of immigration, if
• 2:20:52
  Speaker 1: you will. It's frankly the history of this country, right,
• 2:20:58
  Speaker 1: and now we we as a nation, we love the
• 2:21:04
  Speaker 1: mythology that we're a nation of immigrants, and yet we
• 2:21:07
  Speaker 1: have fought every immigrant wave that this country has benefited from.
• 2:21:11
  Speaker 1: Right in the middle of that wave, we've been anti immigrant,
• 2:21:14
  Speaker 1: and then once they're here we become we like to celebrate,
• 2:21:17
  Speaker 1: but we usually don't celebrate an immigrant population until the
• 2:21:19
  Speaker 1: second generation that that immigrant population has taken hold in
• 2:21:24
  Speaker 1: this country. So I think, you know, in both cases,
• 2:21:28
  Speaker 1: I'd probably go with immigration. And the only question I
• 2:21:32
  Speaker 1: don't know, and I'm always careful with motive is whether
• 2:21:34
  Speaker 1: how intentional it is. And you know, I think that
• 2:21:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think Democrats understand that their messaging on borders
• 2:21:48
  Speaker 1: is comes across as if that they don't think borders matter.
• 2:21:52
  Speaker 1: And I just think that, you know, hey, it matters
• 2:21:55
  Speaker 1: to be an American versus being a Mexican or versus
• 2:21:59
  Speaker 1: being a Canadian, right, and so in order to have
• 2:22:01
  Speaker 1: that distinction, you have to have predictable borders, and you
• 2:22:05
  Speaker 1: have to have secure borders. And I think when it
• 2:22:09
  Speaker 1: comes to the motivation of the left or of Democrats
• 2:22:13
  Speaker 1: to be pro immigration, this isn't about importing new voters.
• 2:22:17
  Speaker 1: There's no evidence that that works. I mean, you know, look,
• 2:22:19
  Speaker 1: you know, every new Cuban voter is a Republican, and
• 2:22:21
  Speaker 1: every new Venezuelan is a Republican, right, I mean, you
• 2:22:25
  Speaker 1: know it it is that stuff. First of all, it
• 2:22:30
  Speaker 1: changes a lot. You know, where first generation immigrant groups
• 2:22:34
  Speaker 1: vote versus the party they end up supporting by the
• 2:22:36
  Speaker 1: third generation almost always changes, you know, usually diversifies. So
• 2:22:42
  Speaker 1: it is a I find that to be a disingenuous
• 2:22:45
  Speaker 1: pushback that somehow Democrats are pro immigration because they're looking
• 2:22:49
  Speaker 1: for new voters. There's just there's This is the most
• 2:22:55
  Speaker 1: of all the bullshit that's out there that gets pushed
• 2:22:57
  Speaker 1: around on immigration. I think that's the biggest piece of it.
• 2:23:00
  Speaker 1: I think that's the largest piece of bs that circulates
• 2:23:05
  Speaker 1: that doesn't get enough pushback. There's just nothing there, There
• 2:23:09
  Speaker 1: is no there there. Right, what we need immigration to
• 2:23:12
  Speaker 1: fill jobs that Americans won't do, and it has been
• 2:23:18
  Speaker 1: sort of what has kept this nation relatively young, has
• 2:23:24
  Speaker 1: kept our birth rate up. You know, if we want
• 2:23:27
  Speaker 1: to essentially screw up Social Security, screw up the funding
• 2:23:30
  Speaker 1: of Medicare, screw up the sort of the future economic
• 2:23:33
  Speaker 1: prosperity of this country, sure, shut the borders, stop bringing
• 2:23:37
  Speaker 1: in immigrants. That's how, that's how, that's how we would
• 2:23:41
  Speaker 1: become Japan. And Japan has had thirty years of sort
• 2:23:46
  Speaker 1: of of just of just sort of muddling along. Right,
• 2:23:52
  Speaker 1: It's an aging population. They've been muddling along. They've let
• 2:23:55
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of other economies surpass them. That is
• 2:24:00
  Speaker 1: what we'll do if we stick to this isolationist nationalists
• 2:24:05
  Speaker 1: build the walls as high as they can possibly go mindset.
• 2:24:10
  Speaker 1: I hope that helped, but it was a challenging question.
• 2:24:13
  Speaker 1: So I appreciate that one. All right, I'm going to
• 2:24:17
  Speaker 1: do I'm gonna do one more and then we'll call
• 2:24:20
  Speaker 1: it so NASA, we got through question six. Hey, Jack,
• 2:24:25
  Speaker 1: I have a daughter that is an international relations China
• 2:24:28
  Speaker 1: major at University of Maryland. Go into China and study abroad. Congrats, Deansless. Sorry,
• 2:24:33
  Speaker 1: Dad is proud. You should be congrats. I pay a
• 2:24:36
  Speaker 1: lot of attention to politics, and I'm surprised at what
• 2:24:38
  Speaker 1: she teaches me about Chinese politics. Do you think as
• 2:24:40
  Speaker 1: a whole our elected officials actually understand China? Seems like
• 2:24:43
  Speaker 1: we always get them wrong, man, I one hundred percent agree.
• 2:24:48
  Speaker 1: I don't feel like I know enough. I mean, that's
• 2:24:51
  Speaker 1: why if you've seen over the last year, whenever I've
• 2:24:54
  Speaker 1: had a chance to sort of showcase an author writing
• 2:24:58
  Speaker 1: about you know, a little bit of trying to understand
• 2:25:01
  Speaker 1: how the Chinese system works or how she thinks, like
• 2:25:04
  Speaker 1: this profile of she's father, you know, I had that
• 2:25:08
  Speaker 1: author on a few months ago because I don't think
• 2:25:12
  Speaker 1: we fully understand how the Chinese system works, right, just
• 2:25:17
  Speaker 1: like I think, you know, our system is easier for
• 2:25:20
  Speaker 1: people to learn because we're so open. That system is
• 2:25:23
  Speaker 1: really hard for people to learn because it's so closed.
• 2:25:26
  Speaker 1: So no, I don't think we fully understand it. I
• 2:25:29
  Speaker 1: think we all could get better at it. And you
• 2:25:33
  Speaker 1: remind me that I need to do more on this.
• 2:25:35
  Speaker 1: I don't you know, and I don't think you know
• 2:25:38
  Speaker 1: one of the things right now, as I worry pretty
• 2:25:40
  Speaker 1: high up in our national security apparatus, we're not fully
• 2:25:44
  Speaker 1: we don't fully understand why she purged his military right
• 2:25:48
  Speaker 1: we have an idea of why he's purged all his
• 2:25:50
  Speaker 1: military leaders recently, we're not one hundred percent sure of
• 2:25:53
  Speaker 1: why he's done it. The fact that we're not one
• 2:25:55
  Speaker 1: hundred percent sure shows, you know, whether it's you know,
• 2:25:58
  Speaker 1: our intelligence on the ground is as good as it
• 2:26:00
  Speaker 1: could be, whatever it is. I do get the sense
• 2:26:06
  Speaker 1: that both in the private sector we don't understand the
• 2:26:11
  Speaker 1: Chinese system enough and government to government that we don't,
• 2:26:16
  Speaker 1: and certainly people to people that we don't. And I
• 2:26:20
  Speaker 1: think it would behove all of us to get to
• 2:26:22
  Speaker 1: get smarter about Chinese history. I will tell you there's
• 2:26:26
  Speaker 1: one thing we do a terrible job of when we're
• 2:26:29
  Speaker 1: teaching the history of civilizations of this globe. We over
• 2:26:34
  Speaker 1: index on all things Europe, and we under index on
• 2:26:37
  Speaker 1: all things Africa and Asia, and we certainly under index
• 2:26:43
  Speaker 1: on China. And that is something that I think we
• 2:26:46
  Speaker 1: all ought to have a goal of changing. And with that,
• 2:26:50
  Speaker 1: I will put a pin in this episode. Appreciate it
• 2:26:55
  Speaker 1: as you know, I'll becoming this is. We had quite
• 2:26:57
  Speaker 1: a day. You have no idea the day I had.
• 2:27:00
  Speaker 1: I've I've taken multiple podcasts today in including one of
• 2:27:05
  Speaker 1: the sports variety that hasn't hit yet, and so I
• 2:27:08
  Speaker 1: don't want to give it away too much, but it
• 2:27:10
  Speaker 1: has been a day. Uh. And the good news is
• 2:27:13
  Speaker 1: in twenty four hours I'll have a brand new episode
• 2:27:15
  Speaker 1: for you to download. So enjoy this one. Thanks for listening,
• 2:27:19
  Speaker 1: don't forget to like and subscribe. Tell your friends I'll
• 2:27:21
  Speaker 1: take I'll take some five star reviews in the Apple
• 2:27:24
  Speaker 1: podcast section. Always helpful, Always helpful in Spotify. Thank you,
• 2:27:28
  Speaker 1: We'll see you so