Latest / The SPY Trader / Market Records and the Geopolitical Heat

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Market Records and the Geopolitical Heat · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone and welcome back to the Spy Trader podcast !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Penny Pincher , and it is a pleasure to be with you on this Monday afternoon .
• 0:10
  It is currently 2:30 pm on May 11th , 2026 , here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:17
  We have a lot to unpack today as the market continues to navigate what I like to call a tale of two forces .
• 0:25
  On one side , we have the unstoppable momentum of Artificial Intelligence and Big Tech , but on the other , we are facing intensifying geopolitical risks and inflation that just won't seem to go away .
• 0:37
  Despite the tension , the market ended on a high note today .
• 0:41
  The S&P 500 , or SPY , rose zero point two percent to a record seven thousand four hundred twelve points .
• 0:50
  The Nasdaq , ticker QQQ , gained zero point one percent to hit its own record , while the Dow Jones advanced to nearly fifty thousand .
• 0:59
  The big story in the sectors today is definitely semiconductors .
• 1:03
  Micron Technology and Qualcomm both surged nearly nine percent .
• 1:08
  Micron is really benefiting from the massive demand for AI memory , especially with supply being tight due to labor unrest at Samsung .
• 1:16
  We also saw Nvidia gain nearly three percent and Tesla jump over four percent .
• 1:22
  Meanwhile , the energy sector is seeing a lot of tactical interest .
• 1:26
  Brent Crude oil climbed above one hundred four dollars a barrel today , which pushed the Vanguard Energy ETF , ticker VDE , up almost two percent .
• 1:36
  This is largely due to the geopolitical risk premium as the conflict between the U.S.
• 1:41
  and Iran threatens the Strait of Hormuz .
• 1:44
  In other news , Constellation Energy reported very strong earnings today , exceeding expectations as a cleanenergy provider for AI data centers .
• 1:54
  Looking at the bigger picture , everyone is holding their breath for tomorrow's April CPI report .
• 2:00
  We are expecting headline inflation to rise by zero point six percent because of those high energy costs .
• 2:07
  Because inflation is remaining sticky , major banks like Goldman Sachs have pushed back their ratecut forecasts all the way to late 2026 or even 2027 .
• 2:18
  The Fed is keeping rates high , and that pushed the tenyear Treasury yield up to four point four one percent today .
• 2:25
  This is making things very difficult for traditional bond hedges like the iShares Core U.S.
• 2:30
  Aggregate Bond ETF , or AGG .
• 2:34
  On the geopolitical front , President Trump recently rejected a ceasefire proposal from Iran , which is keeping the market volatile .
• 2:42
  However , there is some hope on the horizon with a highstakes summit between Trump and President Xi scheduled in Beijing later this week .
• 2:50
  Now , let's talk about what this means for your wallet .
• 2:54
  While the QQQ and SPY are hitting records , the growth is really concentrated in just a few tech titans .
• 3:01
  If tomorrow’s inflation numbers come in too high , we could see a sharp correction .
• 3:06
  For your core equity , I recommend maintaining exposure to the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , ticker VTI , to stay diversified .
• 3:15
  If you are feeling a bit too exposed to tech , consider rotating some funds into defensive dividend payers like Walmart , which has been very resilient lately .
• 3:26
  Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East , you should also consider holding some SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , as a safehaven asset .
• 3:36
  Gold is near alltime highs right now .
• 3:38
  Tactically , adding some of the Vanguard Energy ETF can help you profit from these elevated oil prices .
• 3:45
  When it comes to bonds , I would suggest avoiding longduration instruments like the TLT for now , as yields might continue to climb .
• 3:55
  Instead , look at highquality financial stocks like JPMorgan Chase , which actually benefits from this higherforlonger interest rate environment .
• 4:04
  Lastly , for real estate fans , while the broader Vanguard Real Estate ETF is facing some headwinds , data center companies within that fund , like Equinix , are thriving thanks to the AI boom .
• 4:18
  If you're looking for pure income , check out the Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF , ticker VYMI , for some geographical diversification before the big summit in Beijing .
• 4:31
  That is all for this update of Spy Trader .
• 4:34
  I am Penny Pincher , stay savvy out there , and I will check back in with you in a few hours !