Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / 2025 NFL Schedule with Warren Sharp - Part 2

Transcript

2025 NFL Schedule with Warren Sharp - Part 2 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
0:12
Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
0:19
Speaker 1: Mike cam Padre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello,
0:25
Speaker 1: So I'm in Chad.
0:26
Speaker 2: How we doing. We had a.
0:28
Speaker 1: Great time with Warren on Tuesday. We went through potential
0:32
Speaker 1: changes to playoff seedings. We went through tush push, We
0:35
Speaker 1: went through the benefits of rest advantage, both from a
0:38
Speaker 1: betting point of view and from a one loss point
0:42
Speaker 1: of view. But we dug very, very deep into the
0:45
Speaker 1: teams in this upcoming season that are getting the best
0:48
Speaker 1: of the rest advantage and how that's indicating which teams
0:53
Speaker 1: we might like the most when it comes to winning division,
0:56
Speaker 1: win totals, futures, odds, et cetera. Again, a little bit
1:00
Speaker 1: deeper with our friend Warrensharp.
1:09
Speaker 3: Cisco.
1:11
Speaker 1: Warren, you brought up the Niners and brock Perty just
1:14
Speaker 1: signed this contract for fifty three million dollars a year.
1:17
Speaker 1: And the Niners historically have been successful because they've generally
1:21
Speaker 1: kept their costs under control, and they've kept their quarterback
1:24
Speaker 1: costs under control. Specifically, while this is an outsized contract.
1:30
Speaker 1: It's not like a break the bank for a quarterback
1:34
Speaker 1: contract this year when you look at the Niners from
1:37
Speaker 1: a rest advantage, and we've not We've said earlier they've
1:41
Speaker 1: been getting screwed on rest advantages for the past three years,
1:44
Speaker 1: and I do think it really came back to haunt
1:46
Speaker 1: them last year with players going down again and again
1:48
Speaker 1: and again and again. You look at the Niners, how
1:52
Speaker 1: do you position them in terms of rest Because Simon
1:55
Speaker 1: and I have talked a lot about the Niners as
1:57
Speaker 1: being a team that we like as a futures beat.
2:01
Speaker 3: Yeah. So the other thing too, You mentioned all those
2:03
Speaker 3: players going down. The one guy who should have probably
2:06
Speaker 3: gone down but didn't is a dog Fred Warner who
2:09
Speaker 3: broke his ankle in Week four and played one hundred
2:12
Speaker 3: percent of the snaps the next seven straight games, did
2:15
Speaker 3: not miss a game for the rest of the season,
2:17
Speaker 3: even though the Niners only won six games that were
2:19
Speaker 3: eliminated from the playoffs. So if he with his and
2:22
Speaker 3: by the way, makes the Pro Bowl again.
2:25
Speaker 1: And just signed a contract to make him the highest
2:26
Speaker 1: paid linebacker.
2:28
Speaker 3: Well deserved, I mean, and but but to your point,
2:31
Speaker 3: where is all the money coming from and the forty
2:33
Speaker 3: nine Ers are one of those teams that's very top heavy.
2:36
Speaker 3: They have a lot of obous, say a lot. They
2:39
Speaker 3: have more studs than many teams do, and they're paying
2:42
Speaker 3: those studs what they deserve. So then they're going to
2:44
Speaker 3: have to get by with better players that are playing
2:48
Speaker 3: on their rookie deals to try to get a fifty
2:51
Speaker 3: three man roster that is talented enough top to bottom
2:54
Speaker 3: that can withstand the rigors of an NFL season and
2:58
Speaker 3: produce success. The Niners have been generally solid when their
3:02
Speaker 3: guys are out on the field together, but I think
3:04
Speaker 3: last season when you're talking about like a Yuk and
3:06
Speaker 3: Debo and CMC and Kittle, those guys were on the
3:10
Speaker 3: field with Brock Perdy, I want to say less than
3:12
Speaker 3: forty snaps or something because of all of those injuries.
3:15
Speaker 3: And so when they're missing guys, that's when it becomes
3:17
Speaker 3: more difficult for Kyle Shanahan to elevate the rest of
3:21
Speaker 3: the players. And it makes a lot of sense. Kyle
3:23
Speaker 3: is such a genius when it comes to designing offense,
3:27
Speaker 3: but he he's taking advantage. He's building everything into I've
3:31
Speaker 3: got CMC here, here's all the things I can do
3:33
Speaker 3: with CMC. Let's design unique things for CMC plus Kittle
3:36
Speaker 3: over here, and we're going to work off of this.
3:38
Speaker 3: We're going to use play action, whatever the case might be.
3:41
Speaker 3: And then when those guys aren't there and the players
3:43
Speaker 3: that are replacing them don't have the same level of
3:45
Speaker 3: skill set, Kyle's working much many more steps behind than
3:50
Speaker 3: most other offenses are able to because they don't have
3:53
Speaker 3: such unique game plans designed to such unique talented players.
3:57
Speaker 3: I mean Kyle Uschek and George Kittle, two of the
3:59
Speaker 3: most unique players at their positions in the NFL that
4:03
Speaker 3: can do so much. The Niners. Number one, we start
4:05
Speaker 3: with something that doesn't even involve rest, and that's just
4:08
Speaker 3: their general schedule. They play the easiest schedule of any
4:11
Speaker 3: team in the NFL because they had that rare horrible
4:14
Speaker 3: season from a records perspective, they haven't played a schedule
4:18
Speaker 3: like this in a while. You know, they haven't had
4:20
Speaker 3: a year where they've won only six games in a while.
4:23
Speaker 3: This is a team that's going to the NFC Championship
4:25
Speaker 3: more often than they're having a losing record. So this
4:29
Speaker 3: team has been successful. Now they get an easy schedule.
4:32
Speaker 3: Now they're rest schedule. I've got them as the fourth
4:36
Speaker 3: easiest net rest edge schedule of any team this year.
4:40
Speaker 3: And if I look at some of the details here
4:42
Speaker 3: on the Niners, I rank them fifth best in total
4:45
Speaker 3: netrest edge. They don't have any massive edges, but they
4:48
Speaker 3: do play four games with more rest than their opponent,
4:51
Speaker 3: only two games with less rest than their opponent. And
4:55
Speaker 3: to Simon's point, and if you guys are on board
4:59
Speaker 3: with the forty nine, if they get their main players healthy,
5:03
Speaker 3: this team is a solid team. Everybody loves to hate
5:06
Speaker 3: Kyle shaneon but the key to me is this, and
5:08
Speaker 3: I said this before the draft. If they continue to
5:12
Speaker 3: botch their drafts, which they've done a little bit more
5:15
Speaker 3: than I think forty nine Ers fans would like, that
5:18
Speaker 3: is why their team isn't getting over the hump. In
5:21
Speaker 3: my opinion, they need to hit. They needed to hit
5:24
Speaker 3: as a secret team that I felt really needed to
5:26
Speaker 3: hit in this year's draft to then be able to
5:30
Speaker 3: provide that lower end talent that's going to need to
5:32
Speaker 3: play some snaps when they're paying all those bigger named guys.
5:36
Speaker 3: So I've got higher expectations than most, I think for
5:39
Speaker 3: the San Francisco forty nine ers because of their rest schedule,
5:42
Speaker 3: because of the strength of their schedule. But they're going
5:44
Speaker 3: to need this draft class to impact their twenty twenty
5:47
Speaker 3: five season if they're going to get to where they
5:49
Speaker 3: need to get. I feel like paying brock Party is
5:52
Speaker 3: fine because of what he has been able to deliver
5:55
Speaker 3: and how well he fits. He's obviously atypical. He's not
5:58
Speaker 3: a prototypical quarterback. You know, he doesn't have the size
6:01
Speaker 3: and the stature back in the pocket. So people are
6:04
Speaker 3: going to say, well, this guy's not worth it. But
6:06
Speaker 3: for Kyle Shanahan, he's worth it. And so in this
6:10
Speaker 3: offense with Kyle, I'm fine with paying brock Party. You
6:14
Speaker 3: just have to build up that bottom end of the roster.
6:16
Speaker 1: Simon. Now that we've seen the schedule, who you're playing,
6:20
Speaker 1: we've seen the win totals. We were talking a lot
6:23
Speaker 1: about the Niners before we saw any of this. It
6:26
Speaker 1: was sort of based on their team being bad last
6:28
Speaker 1: year and getting healthy and what their odds were. Has
6:31
Speaker 1: your opinion changed or is it strengthened. What's your status
6:34
Speaker 1: right now with the Niners.
6:35
Speaker 4: Definitely strengthened because it was what we already knew. The
6:37
Speaker 4: teams that were gonna play. We just need how they
6:39
Speaker 4: were going to lay the schedule off for them. And
6:40
Speaker 4: then once you see the schedule, like Warren't talked about it,
6:43
Speaker 4: it's like the dream. Them and the Bills, to me
6:45
Speaker 4: are two teams that really jumped out where the schedule
6:47
Speaker 4: really worked.
6:48
Speaker 2: In their favor.
6:50
Speaker 4: And in the sense that this forty nine Ers team
6:52
Speaker 4: we talked about, and Warren just alluded to it, that
6:54
Speaker 4: they needed to hit in these drafts because they've had
6:56
Speaker 4: to pay all these big time players and they're having
6:58
Speaker 4: to make it all work chat and this this to
7:01
Speaker 4: me feels like a really tight window here, because we
7:04
Speaker 4: could either see them be a really good team this
7:05
Speaker 4: season or one or two more key injuries away key
7:09
Speaker 4: positions and then it all falls apart, right because they
7:11
Speaker 4: have not drafted well. And you know, we've seen teams
7:14
Speaker 4: like Detroit, Philadelphia, like these other teams in their conference
7:18
Speaker 4: that have drafted well right, hitting on big time rookies
7:21
Speaker 4: that have progressed into year two, and that's something that's
7:24
Speaker 4: been lacking a little bit with that forty Niners team.
7:26
Speaker 4: So to me, Payne Party, we knew it was coming.
7:29
Speaker 4: The way the schedule broke all of it. It's just
7:32
Speaker 4: lined up for this team. Like if McCaffrey's right, you
7:35
Speaker 4: know you got solid back coach in that defense. Like
7:37
Speaker 4: it feels like it's all lined up for this team.
7:40
Speaker 4: And we know the Rams historically get off slow, so
7:44
Speaker 4: it's gonna be all lined up for them, like get
7:46
Speaker 4: out to a fast start, stay healthy.
7:48
Speaker 2: I mean, this is easy to be a team that
7:49
Speaker 2: can make another run.
7:50
Speaker 4: And that's why, I mean you talked about them before
7:52
Speaker 4: the season started, just they fit the exact same build
7:54
Speaker 4: the Eagles fit the year before the year from hell
7:58
Speaker 4: tons of doubt from the public perception, and we took
8:00
Speaker 4: the early value. The number already moved up, so we
8:03
Speaker 4: got good value on that number wed better early. Now
8:05
Speaker 4: everything Warren's telling me, it's making me feel good where
8:07
Speaker 4: it's like I want to hear other people saying they
8:10
Speaker 4: have the same view as I do, which is grading
8:12
Speaker 4: them out as a very easy schedule.
8:13
Speaker 1: Do you have the latest number on the Niners Super
8:18
Speaker 1: Bowl odds? Well, I asked my next question, see if
8:22
Speaker 1: you guys can look it up or if someone like
8:23
Speaker 1: that can tell me what it is.
8:26
Speaker 4: So they're basically when we opened it up Chad, what'd
8:31
Speaker 4: you think we got it?
8:31
Speaker 2: Was it twenty to one?
8:32
Speaker 1: I think it was twenty to one, so that's what.
8:34
Speaker 4: I think we originally got a twenty to one. I'm
8:36
Speaker 4: seeing most books now fifteen sixteen to one, so again
8:40
Speaker 4: not being crazy, but still that's what we do it for.
8:42
Speaker 4: Like that, plus four ngers are really nice something to
8:45
Speaker 4: hold on to.
8:46
Speaker 1: I would not be afraid to still bet them at
8:48
Speaker 1: fifteen or sixteen to one.
8:50
Speaker 2: That's fair and I would not.
8:51
Speaker 1: Be surprised if come the start of the regular season.
8:55
Speaker 1: You know, I love to do that round robin of
8:58
Speaker 1: the teams that are are I think twelve to one
9:02
Speaker 1: or less. I bet the Niners. As the season goes
9:06
Speaker 1: on and more and more people take a bite of
9:08
Speaker 1: that fifteen to sixteen to one, especially after listening to
9:12
Speaker 1: the show, because we move numbers that it's going to
9:16
Speaker 1: get under that twelve to one range. It'll be, you know, interestingly,
9:21
Speaker 1: I think it'll be the Lions, the Eagles, Niners, who
9:26
Speaker 1: are probably the three teams from the NFC with the
9:29
Speaker 1: shortest odds that'll be part of that round robin. You
9:35
Speaker 1: mentioned the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo Bills, the Athletic did a
9:41
Speaker 1: story about this yesterday or two days ago. There are
9:45
Speaker 1: numbers for literally spreads for every game right we saw
9:50
Speaker 1: raybaun already put in a team total for the Eagles
9:52
Speaker 1: in the first game of the year in the app.
9:56
Speaker 1: Simon and I have bet the Cowboys at plus seven
9:59
Speaker 1: and plus forty against the Eagles in the first game
10:02
Speaker 1: of the year. But there are literally points spreads for
10:04
Speaker 1: every single game, for every single week of the NFL
10:07
Speaker 1: season right now. The Buffalo Bills. The Athletic wrote about
10:11
Speaker 1: this the other day, the only team in the NFL
10:15
Speaker 1: that are favored in every single game. I put this
10:18
Speaker 1: in the Favorites podcast Slack channel last night and to
10:22
Speaker 1: make sure Matt Mitchell was aware and he was not
10:25
Speaker 1: in a good place with this. But Simon, you think
10:30
Speaker 1: they're worthy of that?
10:31
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's they're worthy of it.
10:34
Speaker 4: But I mean, Warren's probably the same mindset I have
10:37
Speaker 4: that Ravens opening week. That's a gift. You're getting Lamar
10:40
Speaker 4: as a dog. It's not the playoffs. Like the playoffs,
10:43
Speaker 4: I got why the Bills had the number they had
10:44
Speaker 4: against Lamar. This is totally different. This is Week one.
10:48
Speaker 4: Bill's historically come out slow as well, and then we've
10:50
Speaker 4: seen it with Josh Allen that you know, he rallies
10:53
Speaker 4: the team that carries them. We so much earlier in
10:55
Speaker 4: the season when the guys are just figuring out. But
10:58
Speaker 4: to me, the their schedule shots they play all the
11:01
Speaker 4: big dogs. They're playing the Eagles, a team that Josh
11:03
Speaker 4: Allen's never beat, and he's a favorite against them because
11:06
Speaker 4: he is at home and he should be. It's it's
11:09
Speaker 4: interesting for them though that you know, last year they
11:12
Speaker 4: snuck up on us because they have seventy million in
11:13
Speaker 4: dead cap. We thought it was gonna be a rebuilding year.
11:16
Speaker 4: This year, it seems like everyone's on board. Right they're
11:19
Speaker 4: what minus two to seventy five their division. They're big
11:23
Speaker 4: time Super Bowl bet for a lot of bookmakers right now.
11:25
Speaker 4: That's one of their biggest teams bet on right now
11:27
Speaker 4: by the general public. So the fact that this schedule
11:30
Speaker 4: broke the way, did I love this for this Bills team.
11:33
Speaker 4: So yeah, if you're if you're hedging and putting a
11:36
Speaker 4: lot of Bill's malefield, you know in your divisional parlays,
11:40
Speaker 4: I can't hate it right now. They just seem look
11:41
Speaker 4: a team that's going to easily get to eleven twelve
11:44
Speaker 4: wins the way the schedules set up for them.
11:45
Speaker 1: Chad, I might do a Bill's Niners' Super Bowl matchup
11:52
Speaker 1: bet right now before the number on the Niners drops
11:58
Speaker 1: even more. Get better odds on that. What do you
12:01
Speaker 1: think of that, Simon?
12:02
Speaker 2: I love it?
12:03
Speaker 1: Thank you? I like it? What thing be? It makes
12:06
Speaker 1: me feel vindicated and validated, Warren, give us your Bills
12:09
Speaker 1: take Yeah, I.
12:10
Speaker 3: Was going to throw in on the Buffalo Bills. You know,
12:13
Speaker 3: part of the reason that they're favorite in every single
12:15
Speaker 3: game is their four toughest games that they play this
12:18
Speaker 3: year are in Buffalo. So they play the Ravens, they
12:21
Speaker 3: play the Chiefs, they play the Eagles, and they play
12:23
Speaker 3: the Bengals. Those aren't easy games, but they're all in Buffalo,
12:27
Speaker 3: and so that definitely helps the Buffalo Bills. And then
12:29
Speaker 3: if you're talking about a team that needs to exceed
12:31
Speaker 3: their win total, obviously you want to play the toughest
12:34
Speaker 3: games at home where you're most likely to have a
12:36
Speaker 3: little bit of extra edge with your crowd. Easy games
12:40
Speaker 3: on the road are never a bad thing, and the
12:42
Speaker 3: Buffalo Bills play the number one easiest strength of schedule
12:46
Speaker 3: of opponents on the road of this entire season. Their
12:49
Speaker 3: road schedule is the easiest, so that's a positive. The
12:52
Speaker 3: only negative to throw in there is that the Bills
12:55
Speaker 3: from Week ten through Week eighteen, they're playing four games
12:59
Speaker 3: at a rest disadvantage, only one game at a rest advantage.
13:03
Speaker 3: They are minus ten days in net rest from Week
13:06
Speaker 3: ten onwards, which is the third worst of any team
13:09
Speaker 3: in the NFL down the stretch. But these games are
13:13
Speaker 3: Week ten versus the Dolphins, they're at a rest disadvantage
13:16
Speaker 3: of three days. Fourteen versus the Cincinnati Bengals, they're at
13:20
Speaker 3: a rest disadvantage of three days Week fifteen against the Patriots.
13:24
Speaker 3: The very next week they play the Patriots who are
13:27
Speaker 3: off of a bye. We just mentioned while buys aren't great,
13:31
Speaker 3: it hasn't been as big of a benefit to most
13:34
Speaker 3: teams nowadays as it was back in the day. And
13:38
Speaker 3: then they play the Eagles week seventeen at a one
13:41
Speaker 3: day rest disadvantage, So that rest isn't beautiful. But everything
13:47
Speaker 3: else with the way the schedule is falling for them,
13:51
Speaker 3: I think is really nice for the Buffalo Bills. And
13:53
Speaker 3: the other thing is if you just look visually, I'm
13:55
Speaker 3: a very visual learner I like looking at things visually.
13:58
Speaker 3: When I'm looking at the Buffalo Bills schedule, they have
14:02
Speaker 3: like clear tent polls on their schedule. Week one, Sunday
14:05
Speaker 3: Night Football, Baltimore Ravens at home. Week nine, halfway through
14:08
Speaker 3: the season, Kansas City Chiefs at home. Two weeks off
14:12
Speaker 3: after a bye week. They play the Carolina Panthers in
14:14
Speaker 3: the middle there, so they got plenty of time to
14:17
Speaker 3: rest and get healthy and focus on that since Kansas
14:19
Speaker 3: City Chiefs game. And then Week seventeen, second to last
14:23
Speaker 3: week of the season, they play at home against the
14:26
Speaker 3: Philadelphia Eagles after playing the Cleveland Browns. So again you're
14:30
Speaker 3: hoping that when you play the Cleveland Browns, when you
14:33
Speaker 3: play the Carolina Panthers, you're putting up some points early
14:35
Speaker 3: in that game, you're pulling out your guys a little
14:37
Speaker 3: bit early, you're getting healthy, rested and focused on those
14:42
Speaker 3: other big games that you have. But there's only three
14:43
Speaker 3: of them beginning, middle and end of the schedule. So
14:46
Speaker 3: I do think it sets up very well for the
14:48
Speaker 3: Buffalo Bills. But it seems, guys, every single year it's
14:52
Speaker 3: like if not now when like for the Buffalo Bulls,
14:54
Speaker 3: it's always like when is the time that they're finally
14:57
Speaker 3: going to get over the hump here? So maybe it's
14:59
Speaker 3: this year, but we've been saying that for several years now.
15:02
Speaker 1: Look, we say that about the Bills, we say it
15:05
Speaker 1: about the Niners. Warren, you said the magic words Carolina
15:12
Speaker 1: Panthers in a look ahead spot for the Buffalo Bills.
15:18
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I feel like that's Week eight. I
15:24
Speaker 1: feel like we gotta bet that game right now, do
15:28
Speaker 1: you know what I mean? It just feels like that's candy.
15:31
Speaker 1: We got to take advantage of that.
15:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love too, Like.
15:33
Speaker 4: There's so many things that just break Buffalo's way. With
15:35
Speaker 4: deskcover that Eagles game Chad in Week seventeen, it's in
15:39
Speaker 4: between two Washington Commander games, so like again, just catching
15:43
Speaker 4: the Eagles in a bad spot when they're gonna be
15:45
Speaker 4: really focused on their division obviously if the Commanders be
15:48
Speaker 4: the team that everyone talks about them being the season.
15:50
Speaker 4: So it just it felt like it's all breaking Buffalo's way.
15:54
Speaker 4: And you're right, like they're a team that you know,
15:56
Speaker 4: this window for them it's gonna be what two to
15:59
Speaker 4: three ys here if they do this rebuild right like
16:01
Speaker 4: they're they've kind of gone in a new direction where
16:04
Speaker 4: you know, the offense it's really about you know, cooking,
16:08
Speaker 4: Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things, and then defense will
16:10
Speaker 4: be they're paying all their young guys. So I'm really
16:13
Speaker 4: excited to see that the direction of this team this
16:14
Speaker 4: pills the next two to three years, because yeah, it
16:16
Speaker 4: feels like every year we're gonna be saying is this it?
16:19
Speaker 2: Like? Is this final? The year this curse franchise gets
16:22
Speaker 2: over the hump?
16:22
Speaker 4: And if there's one guy to do it, it's going
16:25
Speaker 4: to be Superman himself. Josh Allen like he's he's got
16:28
Speaker 4: it all, Chad. Last year he was an inch short.
16:30
Speaker 4: This year, we'll see if he gets that extra inch
16:33
Speaker 4: and makes his way to the super Bowl.
16:36
Speaker 1: What do we think of early season buys versus late
16:42
Speaker 1: season buys? You mentioned the Bears. I feel like the
16:45
Speaker 1: Bears are getting screwed here. But how does that play out? Historically?
16:51
Speaker 3: Warren Well more teams now have been able to request
16:55
Speaker 3: their preference in terms of when they take a bye.
16:58
Speaker 3: All the international teams are low the request exactly when
17:01
Speaker 3: they want to buy, and then other teams can kind
17:03
Speaker 3: of file a request. In the NFL, it wasn't long ago.
17:07
Speaker 3: I mean, I guess it was. We're getting old now.
17:08
Speaker 3: But like in the early two thousands when they first
17:11
Speaker 3: did division re alignment, there was four teams that had
17:15
Speaker 3: to buy every single week from week three to week ten,
17:20
Speaker 3: and that was it, four four for every single week.
17:23
Speaker 3: Now we've got four games in week four, teams in
17:26
Speaker 3: Week fourteen that have a bye, and we've got four
17:29
Speaker 3: teams in Week twelve that had to buy, and we
17:31
Speaker 3: got a couple teams in Week eleven that out of buy.
17:34
Speaker 3: Last year was a little bit more skewed to the
17:37
Speaker 3: end of the season. We had six teams in Week
17:39
Speaker 3: twelve that out of buy, and six teams in Week
17:41
Speaker 3: fourteen that had to buy. This year, we don't have
17:44
Speaker 3: that the last two years. Each of the last two years,
17:46
Speaker 3: just as a little note for anybody who cares, zero
17:49
Speaker 3: bye week's Week thirteen, and they try to get everybody
17:52
Speaker 3: playing on that Thanksgiving Day weekend so they don't have buys.
17:56
Speaker 3: Then they have buys the week before that, they buys
17:58
Speaker 3: the week after that, and then it ends. But there
18:00
Speaker 3: have been some teams with the seventeen game schedule that
18:06
Speaker 3: and only one team getting a first round by in
18:08
Speaker 3: the playoffs that have done some homework internally and thought
18:15
Speaker 3: to themselves it might be more advantageous to have a
18:17
Speaker 3: buy later on in the season. We wouldn't want to
18:19
Speaker 3: have a bye let's say week four, Week five, Week six,
18:23
Speaker 3: and then have to go all through the playoffs not
18:25
Speaker 3: have a shot at like being the first overall seed
18:28
Speaker 3: and then playing all the way through until the Super
18:30
Speaker 3: Bowl having had no extra week off since you know,
18:33
Speaker 3: early October. Many teams are trying to avoid that by
18:37
Speaker 3: requesting a buy a lot later, but then you just
18:39
Speaker 3: have to survive until you know, week twelve, Week fourteen.
18:42
Speaker 3: So I don't know that we have enough data because
18:45
Speaker 3: they just started doing these week fourteen Sorry, yeah, week
18:49
Speaker 3: fourteen buys. The first season they started doing that was
18:52
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one, So we don't have a whole lot
18:56
Speaker 3: of data to show how much that helps these teams yet,
18:59
Speaker 3: but it definitely has been a growing trend with the
19:03
Speaker 3: extra game that they added to the schedule of some
19:05
Speaker 3: teams requesting to have buys later in the year.
19:08
Speaker 2: Yeah.
19:09
Speaker 1: You look at how physical these games are and the
19:13
Speaker 1: way these players get beat up, and you really marvel
19:17
Speaker 1: at the fact so many years went by without bye weeks,
19:22
Speaker 1: and these guys were just going week after week after
19:25
Speaker 1: week for sixteen game schedules. I'm not talking about the
19:28
Speaker 1: sixties and seventies when it was fourteen games. Like the
19:33
Speaker 1: bye is probably saving years on people's careers because it
19:40
Speaker 1: is a signon this is a brutal, brutal game.
19:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, and we talk all the time too about how
19:46
Speaker 4: there's no mystery here.
19:47
Speaker 2: The reason that one.
19:48
Speaker 4: Or two seeds usually make a far run of the
19:51
Speaker 4: playoffs right easy because they're going to rest a guy
19:53
Speaker 4: early or.
19:54
Speaker 2: They get that bye week.
19:55
Speaker 4: Like it's it's not like remember years ago, it used
19:58
Speaker 4: to be, well, we don't know if you want to
19:59
Speaker 4: rest players, we don't want them to lose their rhythm.
20:02
Speaker 4: That's kind of died out now with especially with the
20:03
Speaker 4: extended season that we've had, where teams are.
20:05
Speaker 2: Just no like we just need to make it to
20:08
Speaker 2: that get the rest.
20:09
Speaker 4: I mean, my favorite ever will always be Detroit last year, right,
20:12
Speaker 4: they didn't take off the final week of the season
20:14
Speaker 4: because Campbell's a psycho.
20:16
Speaker 2: He wanted to lose that rhythm.
20:17
Speaker 4: They had to buy a week and then they couldn't
20:19
Speaker 4: find it against Washington. So you know that is something
20:21
Speaker 4: that does happen. But yeah, my view of it, Like
20:25
Speaker 4: my most interesting takeaway, especially with what we're talking about here,
20:29
Speaker 4: is that you know, there's certain teams that you want
20:33
Speaker 4: to look out there not on the main stage. Like
20:35
Speaker 4: last year, a team that jumped out that I got
20:37
Speaker 4: really wrong was the Vikings. Right, the Vikings had basically
20:39
Speaker 4: no primetime games. They are a team that pretty standard
20:43
Speaker 4: schedule chat always one o'clock, maybe four thirties, but they're there.
20:47
Speaker 4: They had a pretty simple setup that you're a team
20:49
Speaker 4: this year that really jumps out to me, it's a
20:51
Speaker 4: unicorn team.
20:52
Speaker 2: Is Tennessee a team that took the.
20:54
Speaker 4: Number one quarterback, number one pick zero games outside of
20:59
Speaker 4: that one. I don't even think they gave him a
21:01
Speaker 4: Thursday game, Chad Tennessee. So this is a team in
21:05
Speaker 4: a very unique scenario of very simple all season one o'clock,
21:10
Speaker 4: four thirty Sunday. I love that for a team that
21:13
Speaker 4: I'm very interested in.
21:14
Speaker 2: This upcoming season in Tennessee.
21:15
Speaker 4: So those are the type of things where I like, Again,
21:17
Speaker 4: once I get Warren's book, I'll dive into his information
21:20
Speaker 4: on Tennessee, because that jumped out to me right away
21:22
Speaker 4: of huge huge advantage a team that no one's talking about.
21:27
Speaker 4: Born cam Ward barely talked about in the draft. The
21:30
Speaker 4: scheduling guys reflected that giving them zero primetime games, I
21:33
Speaker 4: could not believe when I saw it.
21:35
Speaker 1: Well, Tennessee and New Orleans the only teams without primetime
21:39
Speaker 1: games this year. Simon, you and I have talked in
21:42
Speaker 1: abundance about the Tennessee Titans at eight to one in
21:46
Speaker 1: the AFC South, where honestly, anything can happen, and there's
21:49
Speaker 1: no reason why they couldn't be the Texans of two
21:53
Speaker 1: years ago. I'm glad you mentioned Warren's book so I
21:56
Speaker 1: can remind people go to Sharp dot Football all use
22:00
Speaker 1: promo code action get his preseason Bible for one dollar.
22:07
Speaker 1: One dollar. That's ridiculous. I mean, you're basically giving away
22:12
Speaker 1: the best preseason football book that there is one. You
22:17
Speaker 1: should be a shame to yourself. You should be a
22:19
Speaker 1: shame to yourself.
22:21
Speaker 3: I don't want to even promote the book. You did
22:23
Speaker 3: a great job with that. I appreciate that. I just
22:25
Speaker 3: want to get on my soapbox for one second about
22:27
Speaker 3: the bye weeks and just say one more thing about
22:29
Speaker 3: these bye weeks. Teams care about when their bye week
22:33
Speaker 3: is and they're trying to focus on it, and we
22:35
Speaker 3: know there are seventeen games, and we know that only
22:37
Speaker 3: one team has a buye in the playoffs. Teams need
22:41
Speaker 3: to play every single game that they play a little
22:44
Speaker 3: bit more focused on the fact that if we're up big,
22:47
Speaker 3: we can take our starters out and they avoid all
22:50
Speaker 3: the wear and tear. Injuries are going to happen league wide.
22:53
Speaker 3: You never know when a player is going to get injured,
22:55
Speaker 3: but what you do know is that they're more likely
22:58
Speaker 3: to be injured if they're playing a hundred percent of
23:00
Speaker 3: their snaps because the game is close all the way
23:02
Speaker 3: to that final whistle. The twenty twenty two Philadelphia Eagles
23:06
Speaker 3: were a prime example of this, jumping out to big
23:08
Speaker 3: leads early in games so they could rest their guys,
23:11
Speaker 3: they could stay healthier in the season. They made it
23:13
Speaker 3: all the way in Super Bowl. Obviously, we know it
23:15
Speaker 3: didn't end the way that it did just this past year,
23:18
Speaker 3: but the Philadelphia Eagles are a great example. More teams
23:21
Speaker 3: need to be aggressive early in games to jump out
23:24
Speaker 3: to leeds, to be up at halftime, to put games
23:26
Speaker 3: to bed by the middle of the third quarter so
23:29
Speaker 3: they could rest these guys to get through the season.
23:32
Speaker 3: I don't know why it's not a bigger focus. Teams
23:34
Speaker 3: want to be ahead. Their number one priorities being ahead
23:38
Speaker 3: at the final whistle after sixty minutes. Their priority should
23:41
Speaker 3: be to be up by double digits entering the fourth quarter.
23:45
Speaker 3: That would help their players stay a lot healthier throughout
23:48
Speaker 3: the course of the season, and I wish more teams
23:51
Speaker 3: cared about that than they do.
23:53
Speaker 1: Look, you're preaching to the choir, war on, because that
23:56
Speaker 1: would also mean a lot more backdoor covers. Hey, everybody wins.
24:00
Speaker 1: Start resting your starters. NFL coaches Warren Sharp, thanks for
24:04
Speaker 1: coming on, Simon and I will return with our next
24:07
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube
24:09
Speaker 1: page with special guest Jason Bennetti. Download us from Spotify,
24:13
Speaker 1: Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
24:16
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as
24:19
Speaker 1: a gift until next time, I love you. Action Network
24:27
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you
24:31
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help us. Available twenty
24:34
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler