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The housing market has finally flipped from 2021 · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: heroes by visiting dav five KG Boston and making a
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  Speaker 1: donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
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  Speaker 1: and Mike Armstraw.
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  Speaker 2: Chuck, Mike and Tucker with you here. And we've got
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  Speaker 2: pretty quiet day overall, modest rally taking place on the
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  Speaker 2: S and P and Nasdaq, but nothing huge. The Dow's
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  Speaker 2: up twenty three points, so about, you know, zo point
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  Speaker 2: zero five percent. You've got the S and P five
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  Speaker 2: hundred up eighteen points, about a third of a percent
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  Speaker 2: in the Nasdaq up seventy six points, about four tenths
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  Speaker 2: of a percent. So again, kind of a modest rally
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  Speaker 2: that's taking place here, but you know, somewhat of a
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  Speaker 2: mixed day. You don't have you know, everything pointing in
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  Speaker 2: one direction.
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  Speaker 3: It's just kind of.
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  Speaker 2: You know, treading water, a little bit of a relief
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  Speaker 2: rally after yesterday's sell off and just trying to figure
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  Speaker 2: out where this market goes next. We often on this
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  Speaker 2: show talk about markets that you know, could be a
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  Speaker 2: little bit range bound, and we had that as the
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  Speaker 2: case really from like mid October of last year through
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  Speaker 2: the end of February this year, there was about a
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  Speaker 2: six percent range that the S and P five hundred
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  Speaker 2: was in. It seems like we're kind of settling into
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  Speaker 2: a new range over the last five or six days,
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  Speaker 2: where hey, you might have had, you know, a one
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  Speaker 2: percent up day and then a one percent down. It's
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  Speaker 2: you know, you've kind of been treading water for the
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  Speaker 2: last week or so, uh, trying to figure out where
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  Speaker 2: is the next move. Is the economic data going to
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  Speaker 2: continue to you know, print strongly and suggesting you know,
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  Speaker 2: no major problems a foot despite concerns about the economy
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  Speaker 2: and where it might be going, or does the economic
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  Speaker 2: data take a turn for the worse and we start
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  Speaker 2: to see things slowing down and sliding from here. So
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  Speaker 2: I think that's the question that markets are trying to
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  Speaker 2: digest right now. And that's why you've got the S
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  Speaker 2: and P five hundred against at about fifty seven thirty
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  Speaker 2: right now. That's why you've got it sitting here at
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  Speaker 2: the moment about you know, six and a half seven
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  Speaker 2: percent away from its all time high that it reached
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  Speaker 2: back in February, saying Okay, if you want me to
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  Speaker 2: get back up to those all times highs, you got
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  Speaker 2: to prove to me that there's no problem in the economy.
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  Speaker 2: But likewise, hey, if you want me to sell off further,
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  Speaker 2: I got to see some proof that things are worsening
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  Speaker 2: and not just fear of worstening creeping in.
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  Speaker 3: So that's what we've got an equity market.
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  Speaker 4: And as to that sell off yesterday, chucking is a
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  Speaker 4: fair bit of it did come in the afternoon after
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  Speaker 4: the program aired for our show yesterday, the markets the
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  Speaker 4: S and P did close down more than one percent
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  Speaker 4: in Nasdaq off more than two percent, now only off
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  Speaker 4: about six tenths of a percent in trading as as
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  Speaker 4: traders awaited that news that we now have on tariffs
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  Speaker 4: on autos and auto parts.
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  Speaker 2: Tenure Treasury continuing its recent sell off, up another four
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  Speaker 2: basis points to four point three seven nine percent. Oil
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  Speaker 2: West Texas Intermediate moving up as well as sixty nine
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  Speaker 2: to eighty nine a barrel, that is up twenty four
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  Speaker 2: cents overnight, triple a national average for gas prices also
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  Speaker 2: rising to three point fifteen and five tenths of a cent.
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  Speaker 2: That's up about half a cent over the last day.
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  Speaker 2: We're now up about, you know, eight nine cents from
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  Speaker 2: where we had bottomed out in February and about three
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  Speaker 2: cents over the last month overall, still running about thirty
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  Speaker 2: five cents below where we were at this time last year. Finally,
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  Speaker 2: we go over to gold, which is having just a
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  Speaker 2: nice little nother all time high day. Here it's up
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  Speaker 2: forty five dollars and fifty cents an ounce to three
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  Speaker 2: and sixty eight dollars, So again a new all time
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  Speaker 2: high for gold as it is trying to sniff out
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  Speaker 2: where growth and inflation are going. And right now the
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  Speaker 2: sniffing saying hey, I'm a little bit nervous about the
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  Speaker 2: potential for inflation here. That's the message that I'm hearing
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  Speaker 2: from Gold, at least when it talks to me in
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  Speaker 2: my ear with its obviously real voice.
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  Speaker 3: And Chuck is deranged, he's lost it. So there's that.
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  Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about the real estate market,
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  Speaker 2: and there's there's a good piece from the Wall Street
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  Speaker 2: Journal that sums up exactly what we are seeing right now,
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  Speaker 2: which is the places that were really hot the last
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  Speaker 2: couple of years have cooled off significant for different reasons.
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  Speaker 2: The places that you know, we're a little bit cooler
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  Speaker 2: are hottening up again. And so it's the headline on
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  Speaker 2: this piece is this four bedroom ranch in New Jersey
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  Speaker 2: tells you everything about the lopsided housing market. And what
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  Speaker 2: it talks about is, hey, they listed this place for
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  Speaker 2: one point one million dollars.
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  Speaker 3: It's a four bedroom ranch.
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  Speaker 2: It looks like a perfectly nice, like little, you know,
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  Speaker 2: wonderful little place to raise a family, like picket fence
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  Speaker 2: and all like.
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  Speaker 3: It looks great.
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  Speaker 2: One point one million dollars is obviously not a cheap price,
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  Speaker 2: but what they ended up with was twenty five offers
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  Speaker 2: and it went two hundred thousand above the asking price,
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  Speaker 2: which is, you know, a lot. I'm like, gosh, is
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  Speaker 2: this twenty twenty one?
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  Speaker 3: Again?
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  Speaker 2: Like what's going on here? And on the other hand,
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  Speaker 2: there was in Miami a six bedroom home with a pool,
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  Speaker 2: grand staircase. It's been on the market for two months
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  Speaker 2: now without an offer. It was originally listed at nine
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  Speaker 2: to ninety nine. They cut the price by nine thousand dollars.
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  Speaker 2: Still no move on that front. And it represents the
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  Speaker 2: fact that the housing market in the US is once
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  Speaker 2: again not really moving in unified fashion. But this time
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  Speaker 2: a lot of the places that were hot a couple
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  Speaker 2: of years ago are just not seeing the activity they
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  Speaker 2: previously were, and so in order to clear that inventory
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  Speaker 2: that's building up, you're seeing more and more sellers resorting
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  Speaker 2: to price cuts, often much more significant than what we
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  Speaker 2: are talking in this property that still hasn't sold here.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, when we look at these data, we oftentimes cite,
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  Speaker 4: you know, how many active listings there are in different
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  Speaker 4: parts of the country. We've talked about how Connecticut is
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  Speaker 4: persistently just a fraction of what they had in terms
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  Speaker 4: of homes for sale prior to COVID. But the Wall
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  Speaker 4: Street Journal did it a few different ways, and I
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  Speaker 4: think that those are equally interesting to me. So they
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  Speaker 4: went out and surveyed over a thousand real estate agents
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  Speaker 4: and by region, and they asked them, Hey, what you're
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  Speaker 4: seeing out there and your market that you service. Do
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  Speaker 4: buyers outnumber the sellers? Are they are they equally matched?
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  Speaker 4: Or are sellers outnumbering buyer? And here in the Northeast,
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  Speaker 4: we had the single highest response of realtors saying no,
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  Speaker 4: the buyers are far out numbering the sellers. About eighty
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  Speaker 4: percent of realtor's surveyed in the Northeast found that that
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  Speaker 4: was the case.
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  Speaker 3: In Northern Florida.
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  Speaker 4: Actually, Southern Florida was the most in the opposite direction
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  Speaker 4: where you had looks like about seventy eight percent of
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  Speaker 4: realtors surveyed in Southern Florida saying no, sellers are out
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  Speaker 4: numbering buyers here in southern Florida. Nationally, it is still
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  Speaker 4: looking like a market that is more heavily weighted, weighted
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  Speaker 4: towards buyers outnumbering sellers. But it's pretty extreme in the Northeast,
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  Speaker 4: in the Midwest where there is a lack of inventory,
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  Speaker 4: and pretty extreme to the other side in places like Florida, Texas.
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  Speaker 4: But really Southern Florida kind of takes the cake.
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  Speaker 3: On that one.
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  Speaker 2: And so what you're seeing here, I always like to
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  Speaker 2: pull Mike Simonson's data. He works for Housing Wire, and
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  Speaker 2: I think he just does again really interesting work on
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  Speaker 2: what seeing. So what you've got right now for single
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  Speaker 2: family inventory, according to their data, nationally, you've got about
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  Speaker 2: six hundred and sixty eight thousand units out there. That
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  Speaker 2: is up thirty percent from a year ago and now
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  Speaker 2: only about nineteen percent below twenty nineteen levels. So you've
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  Speaker 2: got single family inventory continuing to rise. Price reductions though,
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  Speaker 2: are currently happening on thirty four point three percent of
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  Speaker 2: single family listings, which is the highest percentage of price
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  Speaker 2: cuts that he has seen in the past decade. Normal
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  Speaker 2: for this time of year is around twenty five percent
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  Speaker 2: of listings with price cuts, so this is almost a
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  Speaker 2: full ten percentage points higher that you're seeing. So basically,
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  Speaker 2: the message is very simple. If there's going to be
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  Speaker 2: more inventory on the market, in order to clear that market,
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  Speaker 2: you have to have the price come down because there
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  Speaker 2: are not enough people in these markets to be able
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  Speaker 2: to buy these houses at these prices. It's pretty straightforward,
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  Speaker 2: pretty simple. Let's take a quick break here. When we
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  Speaker 2: come back, when we be joined by Michael sanm totally
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  Speaker 2: from CNBC talking about what we're seeing in this market.
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  Speaker 5: All right, tap for trivia here on the Financial Exchange
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  Speaker 3: Once again.
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  Speaker 2: Mike, I got two pieces here today. I got Apple's
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: AI isn't a letdown. AI is the let down. And
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: then I got Bill Gates. Within ten years, AI will
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: replace many doctors and teachers. Humans won't be needed for
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: most things. So put those two together. Now, both of
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: these well, it's it's clearly a Windows versus Apple situation, right,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: you know, like that's that's obviously what we're seeing here.
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  Speaker 2: But in all seriousness here, I think both of these
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: things can kind of be true. But there's there's a
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  Speaker 2: lot of proving it that needs to be done on
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: the AI side, just because again I continue to see
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  Speaker 2: just like very basic errors with AI platforms that either
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  Speaker 2: I or other people are using. I had a buddy
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: of mine who I was supposed to be meeting up
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: with in the last week or so, and his Apple
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: AI told him the wrong time to meet me based
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: on the text message that we had had it it'd
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: set the wrong reminder for him. And so if AI
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  Speaker 2: right now can't get things like you know, basic the
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: time when you're supposed to do something right, I don't
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  Speaker 2: think it's going to necessarily replace all people within ten years.
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  Speaker 2: I also admit that we are still just at the
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  Speaker 2: very beginning of this cycle, and things could look dramatically
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: different five, seven, ten years from now, and I'm open
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  Speaker 2: to that as a possibility, but there's a pretty high
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: bar that it's got to get over, simply because right
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: now it's making mistakes that humans make. And again there's
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: plenty of humans that put the wrong time on their
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: calendar too. I'm not trying to say we're perfect, but
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  Speaker 2: if I'm going to have someone or something making a mistake,
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  Speaker 2: I'd rather it be a person than a computer, because
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: generally with non generative AI, with just regular computers, usually
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  Speaker 2: they don't make mistakes. It's user error.
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  Speaker 4: I think part of my conclusion here is that today
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  Speaker 4: on artificial intelligence, you need some degree of expertise to
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: be able to actually operate it effectively and efficiently, and
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: therefore it was a big mistake for Apple to rill
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: it out because that's not what they are looking for.
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: They're looking for an easy to use product that most
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: of their customers can can go with. So I think
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  Speaker 4: that was part of the mistake that Apple made as promised.
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  Speaker 2: We're now joined by Michael san Totally from CNBC here
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  Speaker 2: to talk a little bit about what's been going on
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  Speaker 2: in markets.
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  Speaker 3: Michael, how are you today?
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  Speaker 6: I'm great, Thanks a lot for having me.
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  Speaker 3: Absolutely.
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  Speaker 2: We went through earlier this month a pretty rapid ten
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  Speaker 2: percent correction in stocks that quite honestly, I was sitting
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  Speaker 2: there towards the end of it, I'm going, how did
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  Speaker 2: this market hold together and not fall further? Because it
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: felt like it could have been a lot worse. What
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: was kind of the thing that held this together and
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: prevented it from getting worse at the time?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I first of all, I think that's
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  Speaker 6: the characteristic of corrections, is that they feel as if
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  Speaker 6: they absolutely could could you know, blow through that floor
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  Speaker 6: and become worse. I guess what held it together at
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  Speaker 6: least initially, And I think this is usually what happens
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  Speaker 6: is you just get this huge kind of crescendo of
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  Speaker 6: one way, get me out liquidation type selling. After people
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: try to rationalize and they try to say, oh, maybe
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: I'll buy the dip, and I think you saw I
• 13:26
  Speaker 6: wouldn't say it's it's the most indiscriminate you know about
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  Speaker 6: of selling I've ever seen. But we did get over
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  Speaker 6: sold enough. And I think that the other piece of it,
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  Speaker 6: if we get away from the kind of market mechanics
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  Speaker 6: of it, is that it was largely about this confidence crash, right,
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  Speaker 6: I mean, obviously crazy noisy news tariffs and mag seven
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  Speaker 6: kind of collapsing and what is the AI trend really,
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  Speaker 6: But it did not yet feed into obvious economic weakness
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  Speaker 6: that you could look at in the data, and the
• 13:57
  Speaker 6: credit markets never really showed a time of concern about
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  Speaker 6: the macro stress. So I think if you put that
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  Speaker 6: all together, it was enough people to say, hey, we
• 14:06
  Speaker 6: give it a shot. You know, if we're in the
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  Speaker 6: business of buying, buying pullbacks very brief ten correct ten
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  Speaker 6: percent corrections actually have a decent record of of, you know,
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  Speaker 6: having at least a comeback attempt before long.
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  Speaker 2: So let's let's look at kind of the optimistic side
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  Speaker 2: of the equation. If someone out there is saying, hey,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: I think that this is you know, the worst is
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: over and it's only up from here, what are the
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: things they can be looking at in pointing to to
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: be able to justify, yeah, there's there's a chance to
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: rally further from here and get back towards new all
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: time highs.
• 14:37
  Speaker 6: I think most of what you would point to is
• 14:39
  Speaker 6: in addition to the fact that the corporate credit market
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: has been really solid, and usually that starts to act
• 14:44
  Speaker 6: up if we have recession on the horizon. I think
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: you could basically say is the consumer is in a
• 14:50
  Speaker 6: really bad mood, but they are not yet across the
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: board very strapped. In fact, there was probably a weather
• 14:57
  Speaker 6: influence weakness in January and February spe ending trends. That
• 15:01
  Speaker 6: means there's dry powder for them to pick up the pace,
• 15:04
  Speaker 6: and broad earnings expectations have remained pretty solid. Now, maybe
• 15:08
  Speaker 6: that's all hope for, you know, back half of the
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: year kind of acceleration the economy, But even for the
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: current like first quarter SMP earning is supposed to be
• 15:16
  Speaker 6: up seven ish percent. Usually companies beat, so that's not
• 15:19
  Speaker 6: a terrible backdrop to say that you know, we can
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: we can sort of afford to buy stocks and assume
• 15:26
  Speaker 6: the market's going to be well supported. There is a
• 15:29
  Speaker 6: contingent still, even though many people have come off the
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: idea that the policy mix we're getting was going to
• 15:35
  Speaker 6: be very growth friendly and was going to be very
• 15:37
  Speaker 6: investor friendly, you can still say we need to get
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: through this noisy kind of tariff pier. We're front loading
• 15:43
  Speaker 6: a lot of the pain, uh to maybe get to
• 15:45
  Speaker 6: a point where, you know, the attention turns to tax
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: cuts and who knows if deregulation can have you know,
• 15:52
  Speaker 6: near term tangible effects. So that's probably the bull case,
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: aside from look, the trend is up and nothing we
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  Speaker 6: saw on the part of this year. If you didn't
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  Speaker 6: have any access to news, you might look at the
• 16:03
  Speaker 6: chart for the first part of this year and say, yeah,
• 16:05
  Speaker 6: it's probably what you'd expect after two up twenty percent
• 16:08
  Speaker 6: years in the S and P post election year usually
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  Speaker 6: you get some weakness in the beginning part. Not a
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: big deal right now. Now, Valuation hasn't reset. It's not
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  Speaker 6: like this is a cheap market or risk free market
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: by any stretch. But to me, that's the book case.
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  Speaker 2: Does it feel to you like the next couple months
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: of economic data are pretty critical and sorting out. Hey,
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  Speaker 2: we've had these soft data prints that you reference. Is
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: it going to turn into weak hard data or does
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: the underlying strength of the economy allow us to power through?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that's something close to the whole ball
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: game at this point in a way. You know, really
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: if if the economy, yeah, sure we're gonna we have
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: definitely a soft patch. The tracking numbers are saying, who knows,
• 16:48
  Speaker 6: it could be a negative print in the first quarter,
• 16:50
  Speaker 6: but it's nothing else first half of this year. Maybe
• 16:52
  Speaker 6: we're sub two percent now. Muddle through is okay for
• 16:55
  Speaker 6: stocks if it seems like we're not really seeing the
• 16:58
  Speaker 6: bottom fall out. So yep, Employment it matters a lot.
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: Today we got weekly unemployment claims. Everyone keeps waiting for
• 17:04
  Speaker 6: a potential surge there because we're hearing about government and
• 17:07
  Speaker 6: government related layoffs. The have federal workforce definitely seen some cuts,
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: it's not really spilled over. At the same time, it's
• 17:15
  Speaker 6: also a really weak hiring environment. It's a very low
• 17:18
  Speaker 6: metabolism labor market right now. It's a fragile equilibrium, but
• 17:22
  Speaker 6: so far it's hanging together.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Last thing I want to ask you about the growth
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: engine for markets for basically all twenty three in the
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: first half of twenty four was AI. That was the
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: thing that was driving it forward. That leadership has faltered
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit. You've got this core we've IPO that
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: seems to be going rather not well. That's scheduled for tomorrow.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Where's market leadership come from if AI in that trade
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: continues to languish's.
• 17:49
  Speaker 6: It's a tough trick because so much of the market
• 17:52
  Speaker 6: cap of the S and P five hundred and the
• 17:55
  Speaker 6: broad US market is essentially a quasi AI trend. I
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: think you could make the case that you're going to
• 18:01
  Speaker 6: start looking for the first wave of AI beneficiaries as
• 18:06
  Speaker 6: opposed to the AI infrastructure direct build out plays. I
• 18:10
  Speaker 6: don't know what that would mean entirely. I mean, I
• 18:13
  Speaker 6: think Meta has been falling into that category to some degree.
• 18:17
  Speaker 6: But it's interesting because if you look at the Big seven,
• 18:20
  Speaker 6: they've all either got questions about the core demand for
• 18:24
  Speaker 6: their product, like Google in an AI world, or they're
• 18:28
  Speaker 6: just in Nvidia or Broadcom, where it's essentially these guys
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: are spending tens of billions years falling to the bottom
• 18:35
  Speaker 6: line of these companies and we put a multiple on
• 18:37
  Speaker 6: those profits, that game seems to have been compromised. I
• 18:40
  Speaker 6: don't think it's scheme over. But what I suggest and
• 18:43
  Speaker 6: have for a little while, is the market's never going
• 18:47
  Speaker 6: to put those companies on as long a leash as
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: it had in twenty three and twenty four. It's just
• 18:52
  Speaker 6: because everyone kind of knows we're probably going to hit
• 18:54
  Speaker 6: at some point a moment of overinvestment where it's gone
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: too far and it's uneconomic. Nobody's saying it's right now,
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: but as long as we have that sense that we
• 19:02
  Speaker 6: were kind of looking for that moment to hit, I
• 19:05
  Speaker 6: think that it's going to restrain how much you're going
• 19:08
  Speaker 6: to pay for it. So it's tricky. I mean, financials
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: have been great, but I don't think that there's a
• 19:13
  Speaker 6: huge high ceiling on how much they can power this market.
• 19:18
  Speaker 6: So I think that's why it's funny. You know, everyone
• 19:20
  Speaker 6: all last year was like, boy, we hope this market
• 19:22
  Speaker 6: broadens out. I hope it becomes more than just seven stocks. Well,
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: the seven stocks are worth thirty three percent of the
• 19:27
  Speaker 6: market cap.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: If you got Michael, we got a run. I apologize.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: We're out of time, but appreciate you joining us and
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: we'll talk to you again soon.
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: Michael Santoi from CNBC.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day.
• 19:46
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• 20:00
  Speaker 1: He's the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Well.
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: In honor of Quentin Tarantino's sixty second birthday, today we
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: asked the trivia question how many Academy Awards has Quentin
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: Tarantino won? That would be two. He won both four
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: Original Screenplay. In ninety five he won for Pulp Fiction
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: and again in twenty thirteen for Django.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: Unchained.
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: Winner today of the Financial Exchange Show T shirt was
• 20:28
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• 20:31
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• 20:35
  Speaker 5: complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: Mike, there is a piece in Barons today and is
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: titled get a monthly check in retirement without a pension,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: which sounds great, but then it also says there are drawbacks.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: What are they talking about in this piece?
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: Just last year, or perhaps the year before, Arissa and
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: a few other regulators got together allowed for annuities to
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: take their place within for a one case, and annuity
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: is a word that scares the I think living with
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: Jesus out of a bunch of listeners. So you know,
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: I'm going to take it step by step here. But
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: the promise is, hey, you can now select this other
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: bucket for your four ah one K money to go
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: into with the goal of replicating a pension when you retire.
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: And that, you know, I'm sure sounds like a pretty
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: good sales piece to it. The problem, as it alludes to,
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: is you are combining what I consider to be two
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: of the most commonly confused financial products out there. One
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: would be the employer sponsored retirement plan, just a lot
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: of complexity in terms of how it works while you're there,
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: once you leave, what happens if there's company stock in it,
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: traditional versus ROTH. And then you're combining that with the
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: features of an annuity, where the variation on those types
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: of products few are far reaching as well. I think
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: the point that I have on this is it can
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: actually be pretty compelling. Right if you spend twenty years
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: at your employer, and you're able to contribute in some
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: way to something like this that guarantees an income stream.
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: And also the four to one K provider is able
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: to negotiate the fees down from the annuity company that
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: you would normally face for you know, buying one of
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: these products, because oftentimes they're substantial. That could actually be
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: a pretty good deal for the consumer. The problem is
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: the complexities of it, the job hopping that we all
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: do and actually identifying how it all works. Is it's
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: really complicated, I think, is my answer to this.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: You mentioned job hopping, so on this just as like
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: a question that I don't know. Let's say that I
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: work in one place for twenty five years, yeah, and
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: now I'm fifty years old and I go to work
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: for a place that has one of these offered. Can
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: I just pop the like, can I just roll everything
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: over and put it in and just be able to
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: you know, contribute that to the eventual building of whatever
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: the payout is, or do I have to have like
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: started it initially, Like how does it work on that front?
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Or Okay, let's say that I leave the company but
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: don't retire at you know, an age where I could
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: anuitize it like, it's unclear how all of this works,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: and I think there's a lot of details that are
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: probably products specific and very complex unfortunately that you have
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: to make sure you're paying attention to that we don't
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: know the answer to because we're just talking about this
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: in general, not on the specific plans.
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: And I think that's going to be the downfall of
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: this is with four oh one k's, four O three b's,
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: there's a set of rules that applies to all of
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: these and so if you're at one employer and then
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: jump to another, yeah, the plan might be at Fidelity
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: at one place, TI a Craft and Vanguard at another,
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: but the same general rules apply, right like, this is
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: how you take it out of your paycheck, this is
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: how much goes in, this is how it's going to
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: be treated from a tax perspective, the contribution limits. None
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: of those standards exist when we're talking about these pension
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: like products in the annuities, and therefore, I think it's
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: going to be problematic because you could be a one
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: employer where you know the pension income stream is guaranteed
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: based on how many years you put in a certain percent,
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: and then another one where it's entirely based on market performance,
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: and you're left saying, I don't I just don't get it.
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: In either case, these are brand new offerings on the market,
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: and I just point as I just pointed out, I
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: would not necessarily poop poo them. I think I think
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: they could actually really benefit some consumers who are out
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: there and saying, look, I'm just not comfortable investing in
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: markets of the long term and I'm looking for more
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: you know, security and safety. Uh, this could be a
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: relatively attractive offer because again, you're getting the mass negotiation
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: power of your employer who's going in there and negotiating
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: the fees with the insurance companies rather than you on
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: a one off basis. But there's obviously a lot of
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: downfalls too. If you are evaluating your four oh one
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: K or your you know, your four fifty seven, maybe
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: you work for the state or you know a non
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: for profit company, and you're trying to figure out, hey,
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: how does this work maybe with my pension, with my
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: Social security? Where should that next dollar go? Should it
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: be in traditional versus roth? These are complicated questions. These
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: go beyond hey, what's the best ETF for me to
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: buy this?
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: Month.
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: These go beyond do I need to have an aggressive
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: or conservative risk tolerance? These are long term tax planning
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: issues that can have a very big effect on your retirement.
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: If you're facing them and not sure where to turn,
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: please give the folks at Armstrong Advisor Group a call.
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: We offer free consultations, will walk through our with our
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: clients the steps within their four oh one K plan,
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: their four fifty seven and how to maximize those benefits
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: for their long term future. You can call us by
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: calling eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: The number again for the Armstrong Advisory Group eight hundred
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: three nine three four zero zero one.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: your own financial tax and to state planning advisors before
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: making any investment decisions. Armstrong make contact you to offer
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: investment advisory services.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: Mike, I want to uh, I want to move to
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: something that's a little bit not more upbeap, but a
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: little bit less, you know, please important. I want to
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: talk about just why the twenty twenty five box office
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: is just a big pool.
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: Of suck right now. You didn't like snow White. I
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: didn't even know.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: There was a snow White movie coming out.
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: Okay, But here's the thing. So I was.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: I was driving home yesterday and I was like, okay, like,
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: what what am I going to do when I get home?
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: Like the kids and my wife were out because of
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I forget what was going on. But I was like,
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: what am I going to do, you know, tonight? And
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: I was like, I don't know, Maybe I'll see a
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: movie that sounds fun. Here are the movies that are
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: playing at the closest theater to me, which by the way,
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: has a whole bunch of screens, so it's not just
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: like three movies in ole.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: It's because it's small.
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: The Woman in the Yard, Audrey's Children, A Day of Reckoning,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Death of a Unicorn, Mad Square, The Penguin Lessons, Robin
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: Hood didn't even know they were making a new Robin Hood.
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: The Chosen Last Supper Part one, A working Man via
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: Dira Suran Part two L two Emperan Princess Mononoke four K, which,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: by the way, the original Princess Mononoque is a fantastic
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: little anime movie. If no one's ever seen it. Nineteen
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: ninety seven another great year for movies, by the way,
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: not twenty twenty five. The Alto Nights, Ash The Assessment,
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: Disney Snow White, Locked Magazine, Dreams, Black Bag, The Last Supper, Novacane, Opus,
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: The Day the Earth Blew Up a Looney Tunes movie,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: Always Have, Always Will Ephis Mickey Seventeen Rule Breakers, Last Breath,
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: The Monkey, Captain America, Brave New World, Paddington and Peru,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: iHeart Eyes, dog Man one of them days. Now there's
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: like thirty movies there because most of these are only
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: playing at one showtime because they're so bad they can't
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: attract enough people to play in multiple show times.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: What is going on here?
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: I've heard of one of those, and that was Nova Kane.
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: Because I heard that's actually pretty good.
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: I also thought you were lying, so I went to
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: the local movie theater near me to confirm, and no,
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: these are real movies that are in theaters right now.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: Chuck did not make them all up.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: So instead I went home and I just watched Executive
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Decision for the forty seventh time, and that was fine.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: You know, it's all good.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: But here, here's the thing about movies right now, they're
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: so expensive to make that the only ones that really
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: get made are either you know, the high end Marvel
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: ones where you're spending two hundred million dollars to make
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: the movie, or you know the little indie.
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: Flicks that win all the awards.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: But you sit through and you're kind of like, hey,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: I like movies, but I'm not sure I liked that,
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: And that's fine. But the problem is the mid market
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: movie is dead because of how movies make money now,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: which is there's no secondary market after their run. You
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: don't get anything from streaming, and so all the DVD
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: sales that you used to get have basically dried up,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: and so it's something where the mid market movie can't
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: get made profitably, and anything that is high end where
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: a director or a producer wants to really play around
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: with ideas, becomes a ten episode streaming series and set instead,
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: and so you just end up with a bunch of
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: random stuff out there that no one's ever heard of,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: that no one knows of, and that's why the box
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: office sucks.
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: Good summary Cave Harrison Ford's and Captain America Brave New World.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, He's Red Hulk or something like that. I haven't
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: seen it myself, but I had a buddy of mine
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: who's talking about you know, he's Red Hulk, which okay,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: it's fine, sounds great anyways. Yeah, so that's what's going
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: on with movies right now. I haven't looked at what's
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: coming out later this year, but it sure feels like
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: we piled a lot of good stuff into the last
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: couple of years and now not really sure we'll see
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: but not off to a promising start, and it's showing
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: up in the revenue.
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: So good luck, guys.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we'll
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: do a little bit of stack Roulette.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Miss any of the show. Catch up in your convenience
• 30:43
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• 30:50
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• 32:02
  Speaker 3: Mike, what do you got for stack Roulette?
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: I know the news has been coming pretty fast, and
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: for me it seems like a year has passed in
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: the last like six weeks. But Chuck, do you remember
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: a little something called the TikTok band passed by Congress?
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: Ah? Yes, I do well.
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: President Trump delayed it by seventy five days via executive action,
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: basically saying, look, we've got a negotiation on the table
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: to be able to potentially sell it.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Well, those seventy five days are up very soon.
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: April fifth, we hit the deadline here on the TikTok ban,
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: and I haven't heard really anything in terms of some
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: sort of looming transaction for TikTok. Maybe it's a good
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: thing that I haven't heard anything, But in any case,
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: the use of the app and the download of the
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: app has has kept ongoing. Google and Apple both allowed
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: new downloads after the Trump executive order or a few
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: weeks after that, and we are suddenly coming into this
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: April fifth death line. It got brought up and made
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: headlines again because President Trump spoke to potential Chinese tariff
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: cuts in exchange for a TikTok deal, which I guess okay,
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: But in any case, haven't heard anything on it, and
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: we will probably hear quite a bit out of it
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: over the last next week, because that ban is Saturday
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: of next week.
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: Can't wait.
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, looking really forward to it again. This was passed
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: for national security reasons. Anything short of full divesture of that.
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: I know that there are lots of tweens and now
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: twenty thirty forty year olds who are going to be
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: very upset by a TikTok ban. But anything short of
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: full divestiture of the data from mainland China, in my opinion,
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: falls well short of what Congress asked for.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: I would agree, let's talk about what falls well short
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: of what human beings are asking for.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: And stub Hub.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: So, stub Hub apparently has a setting on it that
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: filters out the majority of tickets that are available on
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: the site, and it's set as the default option, so
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: that you think there are fewer tickets available than there
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: actually are. Go ahead, and I gotta tell you, like,
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: why do all ticket exchange places suck? They're selling fast,
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: don't you see that?
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: Like? Why do they stick at them? Only eight left
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: under this filter?
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: I talked to you guys about my thing last year
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: where I was. I was buying my mom Red Sox
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: tickets and I just kept watch on them and on
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: stub Hub, by the way, and they got cheaper. And
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: then I clicked on it and the actual fees that
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: you paid tripled, And so I said, no, I'm just
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: gonna wait for the fees to go back down and
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: the tickets to get more expensive, which really made me wonder, like,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: who's actually making any of the money on this is
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: like stub Hub just a front four different sports organizations
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: who list their tickets and like it's I gotta tell you,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: they feel kind of scammy almost, not like I'm not
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: gonna deliver it, No, because a real scam like promises
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: you something and then doesn't deliver it.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: It's it's like, right, it's not like you know, hey,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: where the irs bring twenty thousand dollars in gift cards
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: to this corner to pay off your your bill with us?
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: Like that's a scam.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: This is just kind of like slimy.
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: Here's what it feels like to me, Chuck.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: It's it's like when I agree on a deal to
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: buy a car and then they walk you into that
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: back room with the general manager who then tries to
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: sell you on every added insurance and coverage package that
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: you could possibly ever need, Like can we talk about
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: those for a second, tire shinings, which which.
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: Ones of those do you take?
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: Because I gotta tell you, the one that I do
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: take every time now is the tire protection package.
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Reason being when I bought my first car, literally drove
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: it off the lot, popped a flat on the way home.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, no worse feeling, and and.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: In the the tire protection thing would have like the
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: cost of it was, it would have like paid for
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: itself in the first day.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: Basically, how many tires have you popped since then? Chuck?
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: I tend to.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: Pop one every like three to four years. Like there's
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: enough construction going on and stuff that. Yeah, like it
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: does happen.
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: I have to tell you I haven't had a flat. Now,
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: better knock on wood, Michael, Michael, Michael.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: This is a dangerous thing.
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: I have easily not had a flat in a decade.
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: Oh good for you.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: Oh boy, karma is coming for you. I remind me
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: not to drive with you anytime in the next decade.
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: This is exactly what happened last time I said I
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: haven't ever had jury duty.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: Mike's been called to serve on forty two juris in
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: eight counties.
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: Like so, my answer, by the way, is I never
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: buy any of that stuff. But that's the feel I
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: get for it. Is Okay, I know what I'm gonna
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: be paying for this car. It's advertised we've agreed on
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: the deal, and Okay, now you're gonna bring me into
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: this back room where the salesperson tries to make me
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: feel guilty about my kids safety in order to buy
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: some package that I don't need. StubHub also says this
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: is a quote here. In an email to NPR, StubHub
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: says the filter, introduced in late twenty twenty two is
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: intended to quote give fans the best experience when browsing
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: for tickets by showing them only the lowest price and
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: best tickets by section.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: Well, maybe they want to see all of them. I'm
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: not saying that they would buy the most expensive ones.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: You know what, I'm pretty good at looking at two
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: tickets that sit right next to each other and figure
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: out which one's cheaper.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: I don't go to the grocery store and I'm like, hey, Bill,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: can you bring out all the avocados so I can
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: make sure no.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: Like they're out there on this they're there, like I
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: don't know, unnecessary, Like, just just put them all out
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: and I'll pick.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: That's all you gotta do is don't don't make me
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: feel like you've got something better out there that maybe
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: I'm not getting Anyways, I digress. Dow Jones Industrial Average
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: is down one hundred and twenty six points, the S
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: and P is down eight, the Nasdaq is down nineteen.
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: So what was once a.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: Very small game today has now turned into a very
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: small selloff. Not much movement at this point, and I
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: don't know what to make of that. It's just happening.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take a quick break for the rest of
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: the day. Tomorrow we are gonna wrap up the week.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: We do have some more inflation data coming out, as
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: well as personal income and spending data. We'll tell you
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: all about that on tomorrow's show.