Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | US Open | 6/11/25 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A

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PGA DFS | US Open | 6/11/25 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: All systems go clear, you lift.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: What's going on, golf fans, It's your boy a G.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: S Lukea live from Pittsburgh for this week's preview for
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: the US Open. We're gonna get you guys ready for
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: all of your lineups this week. Better look at the
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: weather report, any player deep dives or questions that you've
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: got for me in the chat, as well as some
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: strategy talk. Also lineup construction on DraftKings to go ahead
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: and put it all together. But hopefully you can hear me. Okay,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: It is a little bit of a different setup than
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: what I normally have. Might not sound normal, different mic
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: being that we're on the road, but hey, the show
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: goes on and super stokes to get into everything for
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: this week. So first off, say hi if you guys
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: haven't already, and also smash the like fund for the
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: ship at Nation Crew. It's a major week. We're going
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: to get a lot more views on this sort of content,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: so make sure to subscribe as well if you guys
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: haven't already, if this is your first time watching this channel,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: because we do previews every single week, not just for
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: this event, but also every single event in between, and
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: I think you might fall in love with golf with
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Oakmont Country Club here, so if that's the case, make
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: sure to smash that subscribe button too. We've got Sean
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: and Chat welcome one and also Alan Ross some regulars
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: see Floyd love to see that the community is there early.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Also Nick asking how the trip is so far. Fantastic.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: Got to spend some time with my family last night
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: and walk the golf course today, so no complaints from
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: my end, so hopefully the week is going well for
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: everyone else out there too. Jack Wayne with the question
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: which we'll get to in a little bit. Ben Jizzy
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: this Alex Smith Oh former forty nine ers quarterback in
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: chat huh takedown sites, Kevin, go collect. I see all
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: of you guys down there, hopefully are having a fantastic
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: week so far, and I gotta say major week. The
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: chat is absolutely flooded. I don't know if I can
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: see how to all you guys. We've got Jordan, Michael,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Anthony Brandt, Carolina, Ripa, Josh and Tim. I think that
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: touches on all of it. Don't want to leave any
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: of you guys out. Let's get this thing rocking. So
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: started golf with the golf course and want to notice
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: today that nothing really surprised me, is what I'll say
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: about this course. It's infamous from being the most difficult
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: that you have in the world, and everything I saw
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: today ended up backing that up. The rough is as
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: lush as you see with some of those videos and
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: social media. But really, I think the thing that you
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: can't get a grasp for unless you're at the golf
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: course is how nasty the green complexes are. In fact,
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: that was my one real big takeaway from what I
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: saw today was that there's gonna be double bogies because
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: of people or five putting some of these Oakmont Country
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Club greens. So I think if you're somebody that struggles
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: on the greens, this could be a really tough week
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: for them. It's not like it's a putting fest, though,
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: because from tee to green it's maybe the hardest test
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: that we have the entire year. I think that everyone's
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: gonna get beat up. I think winning score at most
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: maybe like four or five under, probably close to even
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: par when it's all said and done. So I think
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: a lot of that will depend on how Scottie Shuffler plays.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: But this golf course, in my opinion, we'll see how
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: it bears out this week. I think a lot of
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: the top guys are gonna miss the cut. It looks
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: like carnage, looks like the kind of track that even
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: good play is going to be punished. You saw players
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: really frustrated out there. I also noticed that but a
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: few guys that were taking it the right way. And
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: I think Wyndham Clark may have had the best mindset
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: of all, which I know that sounds backwards because you
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: know he's usually a pretty grumpy, angry guy on the
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: golf course. But he was putting. He was hitting the
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: ball like ten feet past the hole, and he was
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: playing with goddr Up in his practice around and they
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: were just laughing to each other. So they run their
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: last hole the day. So maybe they were just beating
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: up after eighteen holes and had given up at that point.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: But these guys know what they're getting, and I think
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: having mental strength that component is maybe even bigger than
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: form and the kind of course fit that you have
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: around here. So I would say, in general, if there's
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of chalk out there, especially towards the middle
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: to the bottom end of the board, fade them. This
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: is a week like the Cognizant Classic, where I think
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: the golf course is going to win now up top
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: with your top five, top ten, I do only think
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: a slight handful, a select handful of players can actually
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: win around here, just because of how difficult it is
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: from t to green. A lot of that nine to ten,
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: even eleven beforeteen K range, like you have a Scottie Shuffler,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: encapsulates that inequity. But after you get past those first
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: ten players in the pricing, then I think game theory
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: becomes everything for your lineup. So we'll talk about that
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: from the lineup construction angle. But I'll be playing quite
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: a bit of chalk towards the top, but when you
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: get towards the middle to the bottom end of the
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: board is we're going to have to be a lot
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: more careful about doing so. And there's a lot of
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: guys in the seven K range that I could see
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: missing the cut at really high ownership, and if so,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: the six of sixth rate could be just nuclear low
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: at this sort of golf tournament. So that's what I'll
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: say about the track. We'll talk on a lot of
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: specifics on players and things I noticed about the course
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: throughout this live stream. But really there's nothing that surprised me.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: Everything that we knew about Oakmont was confirmed in person today.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: Just that those greens were really the star of the show.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: For me. From the weather angle, it's pretty boring the
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: first few days. I don't see a massive weather edge
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: to be had. Let's go ahead and show you exactly
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: what it looks like. So this is the H triple
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: R model for Oakmont Country Club. Yes, the Pennsylvania Turnpike
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: does go straight through the golf course, but no win.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Tomorrow looks like it's going to be a pretty good
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: scoring day, which for Oakmont's probably two and a half
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: over par, so, you know, good scoring day, let's put
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: that in quotes. It's still going to be one of
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: the hardest rounds of the entire year. And then on
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: Friday it looks a little more dicey, just because there's
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: a chance of rain that day. We're going to go
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: to the NM model just because it's a little bit
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: more loaded in it at this point, unlike the H
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: triple R which was cut off in that early afternoon,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: and on this one it looks pretty flat too. Now
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a storm could shake things up
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit in the PM wave, but almost two
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: days away. It's really hard to predict that sort of stuff.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: So based on the two forecasts that we've seen, I'll
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: bring up the GFS model here too, to take a
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: look at Friday. A little bit of a sprinkle forecasted
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Friday afternoon. I don't see an actionable weather edge. I
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: don't see one side of the draw really getting the
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: best of the conditions. The one thing I would say
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: is that tomorrow morning is I think going to be
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: by far the best conditions of the week. Let me
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: zoom out here so that we can see the Oh goodness,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: can I do it on the view tab? Is that
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: how you do this? Yeah, zoom out. Let's see if
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: that works. It did, unlike trying to do the console command.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: If we go to H triple R over here, what
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: I wanted to show you guys is over here on
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Friday morning, I think. I think these guys are going
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: to have the best conditions because the course is already
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: starting to dry out. They got a lot of rain
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: on Monday Tuesday that did soften things up, but even
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: today when I was out there on the golf course,
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: it was starting to get crispier as the day went on,
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: So tomorrow morning there might be some residual effects of that,
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: maybe some slightly better scoring conditions, but those storms on
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: the afternoon on Friday right would neutralize any sort of
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: an edge that you have there. So that's why I'm
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: not really playing it in one direction or the other.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: All my lineups are played without any sort of stacking
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: in either direction. I would say, as a what fifty maxer,
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: that you could consider taking like ten to fifteen percent
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: and stacking it towards either direction, But I think that'd
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: be kind of getting cute here. It doesn't look like
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: the weather is going to be a massive factor for
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: either day, and maybe for showdown in round number one,
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: you do play some of those morning guys, some of
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: the guys going off early to take advantage of those
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: wetter conditions, but I don't think it's going to be
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: a massive effect. You're maybe looking at like a quarter
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: of a stro advantage i'd say versus the first versus
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: the second half, but could be a good tiebreaker, I
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: guess for some of your Thursday exposure. So the weather,
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: like I said, boring for the first few days, but
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: it is always worth checking before lock, and this could
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: completely flip on its head for all we know tomorrow morning.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: But Pittsburgh weather not as volatile as what you have
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: in the tropics, so like unlike a Texas course, a
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: Florida course with a weather can kind of just flip
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: on its head over an hour. You know, Pittsburgh, I
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: can tell you from growing up in this area, having
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: a lot of connections here. It still happens at times.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Weathermen aren't the best at their job, but these forecasts
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: tend to agree with each other. I wouldn't expect them
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: to get vastly different by tomorrow morning. But if you
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: do wake up before then, if you're somebody that wants
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: to make just you know, just in case, right, wants
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: to make sure tomorrow morning wake up check these models,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: make sure that there's nothing crazy going on on Thursday
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: and Friday, Because if there is a half a stroke
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: to a one stroke advantage, you're gonna want lineups that
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: are stacked in that direction, whether they're five ones taking
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: five guys from that side of tea times or even
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: a full six to oh trying to take advantage of that.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: If that exists, that is something that we want to
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: attack but based on what I'm seeing right here, I
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: don't see it for the first few days. So that's
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: the weather angle, that's the golf course angle. Any specific
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: questions you have about Oakmont, feel free to go ahead
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: and let me know. What we're gonna do next is
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: we're gonna go through the ownership towards the top end
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: of the boards. Let me go ahead and share of
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: thats with you guys here, These are gonna be the
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: top ten highest stoned players on the slate end. These
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: are for my projections that I have on my Patreon page,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: but they're not anything wild. I would say they're pretty
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: spot in line with what you should see on a
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: lot of other spots. Really, the chalk up top is
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: very predictable on a week like this. A lot of
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: it is the betting scheme that you've seen. Some of
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: it is the content guys Likenman getting steamed to crap
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: Substraca with his form. We'll touch on why some of
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: these guys are chopped and what you'll notice about them though,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: is that it's a lot of the nine to ten
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: and eleven plus K players that are towards the top
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: end of the board here. Straka A Lowry a. Corey
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Connors would be the exception to that role of the
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: only players that are in the seven K range there
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: and yes, Shane Lowry Connors. Those are two of the
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: plays that we talked up on Monday. I'm gonna have
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: to play despite twenty percent plus ownership on which makes
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: me want to throw up in my mouth a little bit,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: especially with the kind of carnage that I think is coming,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: which probably tells you what I'm doing with such straca
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: at about twenty two percent ownership. Because if I didn't
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: love a guy on Monday, he wasn't one of my
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: top plays that I had on the board. There's no
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: chance that I'm gonna play him as mega chalk towards
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: the top. So I catch up on chat see if
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: there's any specific questions we can touch on before we
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: go through ownership, and then after we do the ownership.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna hold off in any player deep dives
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: until I do the ownership bangle up top because we're
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: gonna do those all together because I know what a
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: major week We're gonna have a lot of those, so
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna make sure we have the time for it.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: By the way, guys. We do have this celebration stream tonight,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: so if you guys haven't already seen the news at
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: seven pm Lord's time zone, so eight pm Eastern for
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: those that aren't educated on that yet, which, by the way,
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: how could you not? My guy James made that well
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: known around the community. But make sure to tune into
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: that as well. That's gonna be an eight pm Eastern
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: time on the ship at Nation YouTube channel, so I
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: don't have to really go anywhere. I guess you got
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: to click on another live stream, but the same YouTube
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: that you're watching right now, and we're gonna celebrate James's life,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: so obviously tune into that if you guys can. And
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: wanted to remind you of that before we moved on.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: So where did we leave off? Do you want to
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: make sure any questions were touched on right away? I
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: already went through the nick question about the trip. Let's
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: see best pivots under sixty five hundred dollars. We'll do
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: that with the deep dive section. So we'll hold off
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: on that one lane, but I won't forget about you.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Same thing with the thoughts on Novak Player deep dives.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna hold off on for right now. Let's see
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: we got Andrew Chief down there. Happy speed week. Yeah,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: at least for me, I'm playing a whole lot of
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: speed this week. Maybe you are too, Andrew. It'd be
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: nice to have you on board the speed train. Yeah.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Alex Smith and now asking me out when he got
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: the celebrity names in chat, Hey, you never know, maybe
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: it is Alex Smith. That'd be pretty cool, he said,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: you know the deal sicko open lineup, throwing some ideas
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: for the chat down there, and Josh likes it lovely
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: jubbly from Brian, absolute legend by the way, welcome on
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: in Man. Looks like a lot of player pool questions,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: so maybe we'll just touch on those a little bit later.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: It looks like almost all of them are player pool questions.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: I'm want to see if there's any strategy or maybe
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: weather stuff before we talked about that, but uh yeah,
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: it's mostly stuff about players. So let's go through ownership
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: before we talk through all of those. So ownership towards
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: the top, I mean, Scotty nearly forty percent owns Bryson
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: being steamed the crap on every single piece of content
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: that you can see. I don't disagree with it though,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: And you know I already started kind of hinting at
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: my strategy for this week, but there's going to be chock.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: You guys know, I'm playing Scotty, but I'm also playing
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: Bryce and d Chambeau this week. Then I'm just eating
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: towards the top end of the board. I know that
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: I don't have to get different with my ten eleven
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: K players because I think around this golf course that
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: mental aptitude and form kind of matters, but ownership really
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: matters when the guys start to suck, because when you
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: start to get down towards that six seven K range,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of these guys are going to
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: miss the cut, especially like the chalky guys, Like it
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: wouldn't surprise me at all if She and Lottery missed
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: the cut or Corey Connors did. That's why it makes
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: me throw up in my mouth when I want to
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: play those sort of guys. But a Brace and a
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Scotti shuffler, I do feel a little bit better about it.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: So that's why I'm taking my stands up top and
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: I'm okay playing those chockey players there because I know
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: further down the board with my guys that are value
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: players compared to the rest of the board, then I'm
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: gonna have the ability to get that differentiation that I need. Now,
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: if I'm starting with a Bryson or Scotty up top
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: and I want to use a Sheen Lottery or Corey Connors,
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: which I'm going to have those kind of combinations in
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: my set of one fifty, I'm gonna have to really
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: offset that. With my last four players. I'm gonna probably
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: want at least two or three pivots, probably closer to
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: the three mark, because you're starting with two guys that
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: are over that twenty percent ownership. So the reason why
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: we go through this ownership towards the top is to
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: point out players that you might want to think twice
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: about before playing. That's not to say that I'm fading
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: the whole top end of the board. You guys know,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: I'm playing Scottie still taking Lowry Connors in Fleetwood in
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: quite a few lineups. But of the rest of the
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: guys up here, I mean, let me just count them
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: in my head right now, at least three of them
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: are fades for me, if not even more than that,
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: or fades in my exposure, and even some of the
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: guys up here. Guys, I'm just matching the field on too,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: so it's not like I'm getting that massive leverage to them.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: You can't play everyone towards the top end of the board,
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: and that's coming from somebody that's a one fifty max player.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: So if you're somebody entering like two to three lineups,
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: you definitely need to be fading a lot of the
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: top end of the board here. But even if you're
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: a twenty max player and you have a slightly bigger
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: net to work with, you should be fading probably at
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: least half of the guys that are nine K plus.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: With fifty max. You might be able to go slightly
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: over half if you're going after some of the low
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: round guys towards the top end of the board, but
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: really playing half and then fading half of the top
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: end of the board is usually a pretty good barometer
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: to work with, and you can play less than half
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: if you want to play a little bit tighter, maybe
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: have more leverage on your guys towards the top. You
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: can play a little bit more than half of them
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: if you don't want to have as much leverage. If
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: you're okay having you know, one point twenty five one
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: point five x leverage as opposed to that full two
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: x that most people use as a benchmark. There are
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: different ways that you can play the top endo the board,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: but even if you do play slightly more than half
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: of them, you're still going to have to find spots
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: to make fades. So I would say, if you're going
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: to use somebody up top, love them, be somebody that
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: you were on on a Monday. So for example, a
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: joking Neman is nearly twenty five percent odes. I don't
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: love Neman at this course. I guess I'll be transparent
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: and say I'm not playing on me as one of
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: those fades I'm taking towards not taking in my lineups
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: towards the top end of the board. And it's not
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: to say that I think he's a bad player. I
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: mean he's won like four times on a live toward
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: this year, three or four times. It's just ridiculous number
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: compared to everyone else over there. I mean, obviously deserving
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: of some steam, especially eighty six hundred dollars. This is
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: a golf course, Like I said, that brings carnage to
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: the table. So unless you were sold on them as
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: as soon as you started looking at the pricing of
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: the slate, then maybe you should consider staying away from
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: that sort of play. For me, Neieman wasn't those first,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: you know, four or five guys towards the top that
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: I was considering in my lineups. So that's why I'm
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: taking a stand against that sort of play. And Excepstraca
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: is another one of those guys that I'm not playing.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: And I'll point out another one, Colin more Kawa, another
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: player I'm not using not to say I think he's
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: a bad course fit. I mean he's a similar fit
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: to a Corey Connors and a Fleetwood, and those are
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: two players that I'm using in lineups that I really
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: like around here. But because he wasn't one of those
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: first clicks, especially at like ten grand, I liked guys
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: around him just a little bit more, he's not going
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: to be in my player poll for this kind of
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: a weekend. I don't share those decisions to say that
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: you have to make the same ones yourself, of course not.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: That's just how I see this kind of slate breaking down.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: But I do tell it to you to show you that,
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: like there are some hard decisions to be made like
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Substracta's form. I really want to play that. I mean,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: the guy's want to be a lot of money this
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: on his outrights and his DFS performances, but I just
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: can't do it. I mean, even Colin, I'm a sucker
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: for playing him more than most people around this industry,
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: and even I have to take a stand against some
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: of these guys towards the top. So just be convicted
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: with your plays up here. I'd say one and a
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: half x leverage would be the lowest I would go.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: That's at least my personal strategy when I'm going with
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: a one to fifty max. If you're in a twenty
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: max situation, minimum probably should be two x leverage that
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: you're taking on these players, so you know, a Scotti shuffler,
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: if you're using them in that twenty max pool, sixty
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: five to seventy percent should be the number that you're
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: looking for. And you know sixty five percent would be
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit under that two X, but that's still
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: a pretty aggressive stand. I'm okay with that. I'm in
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: a twenty max contest, but you want to be more
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: aggressive the smaller amount of lineups that you're playing, So
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: you know, single entry be as aggressive as humanly possible.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: With fifty max, you can choose to be a little
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: bit more conservative. But that's what I've got with the ownership.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: You can see can't Ley, Xander, Morikawa, Fleetwood all going
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: to be getting some steam. But really the ones I'm
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: just gonna highlight them in right over here that you
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: really kind of have to worry about are Connors. Connors
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: is a seven K player. Sorry I'm in to click
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Lowry there, but Lowry two also a seven K player,
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: and then set Straka two at seventy seven hundred dollars
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: up top. It's gonna be kind of unavoidable to be
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: taking that ownership in this range. You can definitely get
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: different if you have to. So just again, it's not
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: who you play, it's how you play them. You just
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: got to keep that in mind when you're building your lineups. There.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: So the water, by the way, I've had a few
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Bruce skis on the golf course, so we need to
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: rebath some water at this point. Been a long day,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: so we're off the beer for the day. So best
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: two pivots under sixty five hundred dollars. So let me
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: actually bring up my spreadsheet. Now I can let you know.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: I'll let you guys into the hotel room. Well, I
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: take a look at my spreadsheet on the side over here.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: So just one second while I bring that up. And
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: the reason I say that is, I'm going to give
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: you more than just two. I'm gonna give you a
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: few that I'm playing and even a few that I'm
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: not playing, just to give you a few ideas because
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: you again, this isn't to build your playerical sort of thing.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: I just want to give you some ideas towards the bottom.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: You're saying sixty five hundred and cheaper, right, So the
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: chockey answer to that question would be a Nick Taylor.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: He's probably the most popular player below there. Pendrith actually
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: is ten percent owned at sixty five hundred dollars. Aaron
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Rye getting some steam towards the bottom end of the board.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: If you're looking for a form, it would be those
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: kind of guys that you're playing. So like, let's say
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: you differentiated elsewhere in your lineup, I'd be okay with
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: those sort of guys because they're the best projections a
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: less portion of the board, however, it's a big However,
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: carnage is a thing, and you guys know I'm trying
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: to get different towards the bottom end of the board.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: I'm looking for pivot plays. So just to point out
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: a few pivot plays that you know might make sense
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: on that board. Brian Harmon, I've got at like sub
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: three percent ownership. That feels like a pretty decent spot,
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: especially at a course that rewards driving accuracy. Lucas Glover
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: is a good ball striker, also a relatively accurate driver
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: of the golf ball. A few of these guys, again,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to have in my poll, but I
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: just want to thread ideas because I still think they're
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: decent plays. I just couldn't get there myself. Who else
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: Like a Ryan Gerard, I mean, he's a real good
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: ball striker towards the bottom. A Victor Perez pretty decent
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: ball striker towards the bottom. Doug gimm He's down at
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: fifty nine hundred dollars. All those guys I just pointed
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: out are sub two and a half three percent projected
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: ownership in my projections this week, so maybe worth a
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: few looks. I think it kind of depends on what
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: you're doing with the rest of your lineup and download.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: At least, in my opinion, on a week like this,
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: you want to get different to the field. It's just
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: I think you're going to see a bunch of randomness
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: at this sort of golf course. And it kind of
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: makes me scared about betting Scotti shuffler. To be honest,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: it looks that hard, but the cream should rise to
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: the top. It is a US Open and a major
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: after all. And he said you were looking for overlooked guys.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: Didn't see the second part of that until now, So yeah,
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: those second half guys are probably the ones you want,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: the ones that are being a little bit overlooked. Let's see.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: And by the way, Alex Smith saying that the US
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: opens the stone nuts, you're absolutely correct. If you happen
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: to be the actual quarterback. Alex Smith, you're a legend,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: you won't be a lot of money. By the way,
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: playing your last few years, Olsen's the one you'd say
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: you're looking towards the bottom. Okay, I like that. We
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: we leave looking for specific questions, he said, Luke, you're
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: the Matt McCarty whisperer. How do I feel about on
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: the speak oh hard golf courses like this kind of
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: scare me. With Matt McCarty, I saw him for some
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: of his practice round today and I do have to
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: say that he looked pretty stressed out out there. Normally
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: one of the most free loving guys on tour. Him
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: and his caddie are best friends, so I think that's
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of the reason for that. He's very comfortable
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: every time he's out there playing. But him and Brian
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: Campbell weren't speaking. They were on the twelve hole, so
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: I think they had already played nine. They were on
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: their back nine at that point, and he was in
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: the intermediate cuts. He wasn't even in the deep rough,
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: and he chunked on the rough on the left side.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. I would say that the look
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: didn't look great out there, But I love Matt McCarty.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: I hope he plays well this week. I'm personally not
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: going to have some exposure. The other portion of it, Allen,
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: is that he is getting some steam. I do see
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: him at over two and a half three percent ownership
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: in my projections, which is a It's not terrible ownership.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: You can still get some leverage on a two or
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: three percenter, but a lot of these guys, I pointed
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: out just now to Wayne or sub one and a half,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: sub one percent ownership in some cases to speak or
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: not to speak, what would dgen do? So the ownership
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: is normally what Djen uses with a Jordan Speed at
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: least based on you know what I recollect from back
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: in the day, I would say he'd probably play him
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: at the spot these sub ten percent owned Not a
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: lot of people are gonna be playing Jordan Speed, and
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: I think his role is when everyone else doesn't play
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: Jordan Speath, you use him in your lineups. And I'm
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: partial to him. This week I've bet him for top ten.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: I think he's a fantastic play. So if the ownership
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: bangles good there too, then maybe we all got to
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: ride the train together. I gotta say it's it's a
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: crazy train. It's the Bogie and Birdie train, so get
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: ready for a rocky ride if you're playing them. Thoughts
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: on Niemen, So yeah, he's really chalky, is I guess
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: the one down side of Joaquin Neeman. The positive is
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: that he's got the best form really of anyone on
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: the live golf side. He's playing even better than John
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: Rahm Is, which is hard to do. He's literally finished
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: top ten every single time on the Live tour, but
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: Joaquin Neeman has more of the top three wins compared
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: to John Rahm. I mean he's a seven and seven,
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: seven and a half out of ten on paper. I mean,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: he's a really good projecting play. The big downside is
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: that he's the third highest DONT player, like you can
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: see on the board right there, So you got a
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: way that if you were on him on a Monday,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: if it was one of your top level plays, I'm
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: totally fine using him. They can differentiate towards the middle
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: to the bottom end of the board. It's just that
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: I obviously prefer other guys, if that makes sense. Thoughts
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: on Straka and Reid. I really like Reid. Reid was
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: a guy that I took the top ten top twenty
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: this week, so I like the short game. I like
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: the fact that he's played well courses but really fast,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: really undulating greens Septstraca, just like Joaque Neeman. So these
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: questions I think are very similar on those two players.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Some of the best form on the PGA Tour side. However,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: you're paying that with twenty two percent ownership, So if
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: you have other spots in your lineup where you're taking
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: sub five percent owned players two three of them in
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: your set of six players large field GPP, you get
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: away with a sept straca. But if you're in one
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: of those contests big five or twenty five dollars GPP
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: and you only have one, maybe two pivots in that lineup,
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: you might want to think twice about ashtraka. You'd still
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: play somebody that's not sub five percent owned in that spot,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: but you probably don't want the guy that's twenty two
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: percent owned. If you're really chalky elsewhere, talk out of
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: using Woodland. I can't do it, Brandt, because I'm using
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: them myself. So maybe we're crazy for doing it. Maybe
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: we need a knock over the head by somebody because
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: we're playing Gary Woodland. But I've got to say he
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: plays well, really difficult golf courses. I mean US Open tracker,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: he's a past winner. I'm okay with it. I don't
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: love the play. I'm using him as a super lowwned option,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: and in fact, most of you watching this please don't
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: use him. Right, we got to keep him under that
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: one and a half one percent ownership that he's coming
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: in at He's a essentially unowned on a week like this,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: so me Brandt probably the only two people boneheaded enough
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: to use him in lineups. But eight cheers, do you mind? Man?
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it works out for us too, huh? Is a
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: Loewens worry the best leverage play this week? I don't
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: know if it's say he's the best leverage play, but
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: he's damned good leverage play towards the top. I don't
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: know if i'd say he's the best, though, he's a
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: let's see. I think my ownership I have around ten percent.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: Let's to give you guys a barometer on the exposure there.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: He's a He's a tough one for me. I'm not
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: sure how it's gonna go for Rory. I either think
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: he's gonna miss the cut pretty embarrassingly or he's gonna
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: play very well and can tend to win this sort
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: of thing. So we'll see if he can figure the
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: thing out. Let's see if he can get that four
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: move in the right direction. But it's a it's a
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: hard one to read. In my opinion, I don't know
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: which way it's gonna go. Josh was not a fan
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: of Roy. It looks like I gotta say the ownership
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: might even be lower than ten percent based on some
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: of the chats so far. You guys are savages down there.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: I love it. That makes you feel better about being
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: underweight on Straka, Hey, if he nukes and he kills us,
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: we've got showdown from rounds two through four, So cheers
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: to you, Sean. Hopefully it works out for us. Thoughts
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: on ox Shay and Denny as potential value plays, so Ryan,
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: I'm on both this week. Both are in my player pool.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, you guys know him an open book really
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: when it comes to my exposure at most points, I
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: guess can find, by the way, all my projections, all
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: my exposure on my Patreon page. I'll literally I tell
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: everyone who I play over there. So here's a curious
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: and you want all the projections, you can find those
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: on that site. But yeah, OK, Shay Denny both in
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: my player pool because they're relatively accurate drivers. Oxhay's above
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: average accuracy, Denny's top fifty driver in terms of driving accuracy,
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: and Denny's playbout memorial. It's one of my compourses here
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: in Akhay he doesn't have as much compcourse history, but
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: him playing we like TVC Sawgrass in the Mass and
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: the players, I think is at least good evidence that
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: he's capable of doing it at this sort of golf course.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: So we'll see. I really like Denny this week though,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: absolutely God blessed Djen. That is aim into that man.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: What's up, Luke, let's smash this week? I would love to.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: Let's get after it. Let's see. Hey, it's Wilson the
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: volleyball from Castaway? How are you? I gotta say that's
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: a That's a great movie. Not that Alex Smith. Unfortunately,
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: I know it's a common name. Am I making a
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: role of a max number of Bryce and Scotty Connors
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: and Lowry? I'm not go collect. I have a different
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: way to do it with my product ownership, but I
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: would want at most two of those guys in a lineup.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't want three of them in a lineup. I
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: definitely wouldn't want all four together though, But me setting
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: a product ownership cap is going to accomplish that. If
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: you don't have product ownership as a part of the
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: optimizer that you're using, then you could use roles to
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: take care of that, and I would probably set it
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: to a max of two of those guys, because like
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: you're let's talk about why we went both guys down loud, right,
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: If you had Connors and Lowry in a lineup together,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: even up top, if you're using pivots, and we'll put
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: those in quotes, because everyone's like over ten percent ownership,
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: that's nine K plus. If you use a pivot towards
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: the top, it's ten percent there, ten percent there, twenty
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: percent In the seven K range, you don't really have
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: any ownership leverage and that sort of laup, so you
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: wouldn't want those two together. And then you know, if
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: you went, let's say Bryson Scottie and then one of
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: those two players, you might be able to get away
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: with that. But your other three players in that lineup
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: would have to have all your leverage, I mean probably
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: all have to be sub five percent ownership in that
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: sort of build. That's why I would limit it to two.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: If that makes sense. How much salary can you have
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: left in a lineup for a twenty max? I don't
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: I personally don't push it past five hundred dollars on
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: most main slates, but realistically you can leave up to
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: one thousand, and I don't think you'd be giving up
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: too much win equity. But I normally live in that
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: two hundred to five hundred dollars range at the very most,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: and in fact, most of my lineups either spend all
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: the salary or one hundred dollars within the max salary.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: It say, and you're saying in a twenty max, yeah,
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: at most two, I would say, how about our local hero,
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: Matt vote did. It's gonna be fun to see him
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: play out there. He's a I mean, I don't think
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: he's from Pittsburgh anymore. I know he's originally kind of
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: like me, right, I'm a transplant down here in South Florida. Now,
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: I hope he plays well because and if he's a
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: former caddy at the golf course freaking Neil Shipley, he's
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: the other one's he used to be a caddy at Oakmont.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: I wish he was in this field. Better to be
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: late than never. Absolutely welcome on in, is it, hey, Luke?
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: Do I think Bud Colly and Ryan Gavard are good
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: course fits. I don't know if i'd say they're great
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: course fits, but both are accurate off the tea, which
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: if I had to lean accuracy or distance. I do
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: lean accuracy at this course, just because the rough is
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: as penal as it is, So I'm okay with both.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: They're just kind of like decent plays for me. I
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: don't love either of those two, but better than most,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: we would say, He say, Can I pair two fifteen
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: percent projected ownership guys and one lineup? For sure? Especially
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: like for your nine to ten K guys. You can
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: get away with that if you're differentiating down low. Where
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: you're gonna come into some issues is when it's three
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: plus that you're playing at fifteen percent plus. So even
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: if you don't have like a product ownership cap, you
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: could set a role to only have let's say, like
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: you know, two guys over twenty percent ownership in a lot.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: That's probably what I would do. I wouldn't do it
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: at fifteen. I would probably raise it up to twenty
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: then only want two guys over that number. I think
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: that's a fair way to do that. He said. When
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Scotty wins at minus one, it doesn't end up in
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: any optimal lineups. Welcome to Oakmont. We'll see. I think
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: if he wins, he's gonna be on the optimal, but
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: it would take some wild stuff for him to not
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: make it if he wins, he said, Kim Young is
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: going to be absolute megachok. I don't see that, Micah.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: I've got him getting some steam, but not nearly as
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: much is what we thought on like a Monday. So
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: I guess it depends on what ownership source you're looking at.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: That's just based on what I've ran for the week.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: But I've got him as well above average ownership, but
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: not like a mega chalk at that portion of the board.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Thoughts on Lowry, he said, Jim Nantz likes him. I
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: certainly like him this week. He's down as a what
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: core play for me. I didn't know if he was
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: a corrier value top ten bet in my portfolio. Last
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: time he played here, he performed very well. I ended
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: up what he was in the fifty four hole leader
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: he was minus seven, ended up shooting way over par
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: and Sunday to kind of choke it away. If he
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: does that again, that's fine because he's cheap. Top five,
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: top ten is going to get the job done at
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: that kind of price tag. I like him quite a bit,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: good course spit. He's accurate off because he really good
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: short game too. I'm out of long rough. That's what
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: pays around Oakmont Country Club. By the way, guys, we
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: got nearly two hundred actually two hundred people now in
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: this live chat. If he already smashed that, like Bun already,
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: go ahead and do so, let's get those numbers up.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: I'll pump them up for the ship at Nation Crew.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: Here thoughts on Victor Hoblindenberger as GPP plays, So, I
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: like the ownership on both, Ryan, So if you're playing
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: in a GPP specifically, I think there's upside to both
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: of them. I will say that playing one of those
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: two in my lineups, and it was the ownership that
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: put me on to them. It was also kind of
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: the course fit with the one that I was playing,
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: But I'm okay with both of those. Is how do
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: I feel about Reed and Thomas making the cut? Oh?
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: I have to see the odds, Mario, because I'm assuming
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: that's why you're asking, right. If not, i's for dfs.
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: I like them in general. I do like short game
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: around this golf course. And something else I noticed today
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: I'll mention it after walking the premises is that around
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: the green play is going to be important for making birdies.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: Whole two Hoole seventeen are drivable power for us because
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: aren't already familiar with them. Just over three hundred yards
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: a piece they are up pill so not everyone can
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: just drive the green complex. But at the very worst,
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: most of the field, every seventy five eighty percent of
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: it are going to be within twenty thirty yards of
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: the front, which means good around the green players like
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: a Justin Thomas, like the Patrick Reid that you asked about,
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: in both cases are going to have a pretty good
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: chance to make birdies on those holes because as long
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: as they're not driving it in the heavy rough, they're
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: gonna be able to put some spin on the ball
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: out of the really tight approaches that you have. And
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: especially JT. I mean both of them both top three
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: top five short game players in the world. There's two
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: opportunities for that for every single round. And then the
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: two part fives. One of them is reachable in the
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: front nine. The back nine one twelve is kind of dicey.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: It depends on where they put the T box. They
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: move up to the T box, it will be reachable.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: If not, especially for Patrick Reids again there but maybe
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: JT could with a really good drive. You're also chipping
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: on a lot of those par fives, so you know,
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: I was walking the course. I'm sitting there like, Wow,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: these guys that have good short games, they're gonna be
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: making some birdies on those holes, and then on the
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: harder holes they're gonna have a good chance to get
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: up and down. I like them to make the cut
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: for that reason. Because the more and more the week
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: has gone on, I think that category means even more
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: than when I was giving it credit. For thoughts on Ortiz,
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: I'm assuming you mean Carlos. His brother Alvarro is also
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: in the field this week, though I like the form
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: with Carlos. He's one of the top ten players on
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: Live golf this year. He's cheap. He's a six maybe
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: I thought it was six k range, maybe bottom into
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: the seven k range player in this sort of event.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: I like him quite a bit. Harmon is shorter than
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: the rough. Yeah, he might get lost out there if
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: he's not careful. DJ loved giving him crap for that too,
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: so I like that you guys are roasting him in
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: the chat. He might end up withdrawing if he gets lost. Yeah,
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: That's what I was thinking too. Man, he's a Griffin
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: also looks like a solid play He's been showing good
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: form his last few starts. Form you can't deny at all.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, in contention over and over won
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: that event. Yeah, if you're looking for a form player,
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Ben Griffin by all means should probably be in your
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: top five. What he will say though, is he wasn't
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: in that top ten of the ownership that we had.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: Of course, guys, there's some guys just outside of there
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: that are in the seven k range that are top two.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Ben Griffin is one of those players. So if you're
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: gonna use him, just know that the ownership's there. Again,
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: it's not who you play, it's how you play them.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: Get different around it, Ben Griffin. Yeah. Thoughts on Griffy,
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: So there's the thoughts there. Hopefully that helps you. Thoughts
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: on mav McNeely so ooh okay, I'm allowed to give
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: away some of the boots on their gun and stuff
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: here that I was kind of saving for myself. He
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: looked he was one of the few players that was
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: happy on the golf course today, and every time I
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: saw a smile from players, I was like an eagle
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: eye looking for that, because trust me, there were not
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of smiles on that golf course. Matt mcnely though,
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: him and his brother's scout for shooting the shit. They
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: were real happy putting and whatnot. I'm playing them this week.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's the mindset. He's got it and a lot
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: of other people don't. But he's super low owned. No
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: one's using them. So if you be looking for GPP pivot,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: he has that. And you know, it's a silly reason
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: why I playing him. I caught him happy on the
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: golf course, right, Like, Oh, doesn't mean he's gonna play
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: well this week, right, but he's low owned, and it's
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: better than you know, picking names out of a hat
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: and trying to find a guy. So I'm okay with him.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: Course fit wise, though, Nick he plays both difficult tracks.
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: He saw that at Tory Pines at the Genesis nearly
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: ended up pulling off that win. In general, he's played
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: a lot better in twenty twenty five. Last month though
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: than on the down tick. Right has not been playing
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: his best golf. That's why he's coming in at lower ownership.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: But I think it's substantiated. I could see it did.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: I get a chance to watch Bud practice. I saw
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: him in the range a bit cedric. Unfortunately for Bud,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: he was on the range for quite some time. Now.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: I didn't watch every swing of his. He was kind
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: of off to the side where I couldn't get a
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: good view of it. But he was out there for
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: at least an hour grinding on the range, which was
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: a lot longer than other players. It looked like most
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: players were spending their time on the golf course getting
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: an idea for the different contours, the different sloping that
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: you have around this golf course. He was grinding on
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: the swing, which I'll also say this about the boots
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: on the ground stuff. Davis Riley, Oh god, I hate
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: saying this because he's probably gonna like win now I
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: say this. But he looked lost, like purely lost. He
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: had his swing coach doing his backswing for him. You
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: don't love to see that. But Colly was kind of
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: grinding on the range. Fleetwood had a mountain of golf
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: balls out there, and I betfleet went to top five.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: So that scares me about food. I'm still playing him.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: I'm not backing down my bed. I'm not cashing it.
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: Out or anything, but you don't love to see that
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: the day before an event. Who else set Straka Loud's
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: good on the range. So I'm still feeding Straca as
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: I mentioned before, But he looked really good out there.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna go to my profile on Twitter just
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: to kind of remind myself because I saw a lot
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: out there today. Guys. Harris English looked really good on
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: the range. He always looks good though. He's a very
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: well balanced player, has tempo on almost all his swings.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: And then who else SUNJM Sun GM was only hitting
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: around the green shots. He was hitting a lot of pharaways,
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: hitting a lot of greens, but then he wasn't putting
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: out those putts. He was walking over to the bunkers.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: He was walking over to the around the green shots
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: to take a look at what those shots kind of
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: played like. I kind of liked that from Sunjay, Like
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: he was hitting the ball well, but he wasn't kind
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: of being too full of himself and going like, oh,
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to hit the around the green shots.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: And another thing is because he was by himself, he
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: was able to hit a lot more shots, like he
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: didn't have to wait for his partners to do certain things.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: He could hit three four balls from the pharaway if
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: he wanted to, and when he was doing he was
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: hitting like four out of four greens, which we know
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: anything about oakmad it's very difficult to hit Green's regulation
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: around there. I guess that's worth noting from the golf
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: course too, Sunjay, he looked out in he's not highly
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: owned this week either. He should be about average to
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: blow average ownership. You were looking at Bobby mac stats
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: and it looks like he's not strong on the scrambling
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: in the number of putts per round. That makes you
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: feel like a fade. So a couple things with that.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: So the stats can be a little bit misleading, especially
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: like when you're looking at very specific things like scrambling
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: from the rough, because it does depend on the sample
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: size that you're using and what golf courses it's pulling
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: that data from. Because if it's Bobby mack at like
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: signature events like the API scrambling out of the rough,
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: comparing it to guys playing like Myrtle Beach Classic for example,
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: like gott her Up playing out of the rough like
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: I've heard got her Up talted as like this around
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: the green specialist this week. He is a really good
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: chipper of the ball. I've got to see got her
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: up today play a lot of his around the green shots.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: He's better than most would say in that category. But
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: a lot of the stats that these people that are
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: touting him up this week are failing to realize. Our
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: alternate field or weak field events where they're rough is
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: one and a half two inches. We'll see how he
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: does in five inch rough around Oakmont. I don't think
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: it's going to be that same way. So, just like
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: that with Bobby Mack, let's circle back to this. The stats,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure what sample size you're looking at, might
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: look a little bit bad, but remember he won the
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Genesis Scottish Open in extremely gnarly rough. He's played very
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: well there almost every time they've played there. He also
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: plays well really difficult golf courses. I'm personally not fading them, Stephen,
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: But if that's part of your process right looking at
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: the scrambling stats, as long as it's a big enough
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: sample size, as long as you're looking at like over
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: twenty four rounds, then it's actionable. I say you could
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: definitely go with the fade on that. Because he's getting
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: some ownership. He's not chalky on a week like this,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: but he's certainly not low owned dialer at that portion
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: of the board. So I'm okay with the fade. I'm
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: personally going a slightly different direction though thoughts on Matty Fitzpatrick,
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: that old brace face as we call him. I like
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: him as a grinder at like difficult tracks, and he's
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: essentially unknowned this week, so he did make my player
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: pool as of the last cut. He's not my favorite
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: player on tour, but you know, I got to give
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: respect for respects to due. He is a very strong
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: minded player. He's not going to give up really early.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: What's going on? Been a minute thoughts on Sunday, So
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: I just gave the thoughts there. Hopefully that answers it.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: I love them this week? Who is my favorite Smith?
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Jordan L? Smith? Nick a shout out to a DP
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: World Tour stud in Jordan Smith, who I'm sure Nick
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: knows all about so I don't have to explain it
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: too much to everyone else in the chat, though that
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: maybe isn't as informed as our European countertour. He's somebody
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: that is extremely good at ball stragging. Get off the
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: team player, good approach player, but can't buy any putts.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: So if he can avoid the three putt bug this week,
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: massive If I think almost the whole field is going
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: to get the three put bug this week, But if
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: he can at least be okay on that category, he's
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: got a chance. Thoughts starting lineups with Rum and Bryson
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: or is that too chalky? I'm okay with it, Sean,
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: just a it's good that you know that's chalky to
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: start right. As long as you know that that is
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: going to be a little bit shalkier than most other builds,
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: then you can account for that a little bit further
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: down the line. So I'm okay with that, as long
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: as you're being very mindful with your last three or
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: four spots. Probably don't want guys that struck a lowerer
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: Connors in that kind of a lineup. Is said, is Ballister
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: playable for viewing purposes? You'd like that he's in the
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: featured group. Yeah. I might be able to catch him
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: peing in one of those ditches around the golf course.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: He's playable for sure. Man, he's a US Amateur champion,
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: somebody that's a high pedigree player live golf now, So
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: you know a lot of people will probably write them
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: off because of that, and that's going to give you
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: a little ownership. So I think that's all right, is it?
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: Haven't seen a Leishan forever? Any thoughts? Well, he's been
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: playing on Live and I follow Live quite closely because
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: it gives us a good sense for these majors. So
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: I'll be able one to tell you that he's playing
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: amazing this year. Leishman one down in Miami. I got
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: to see that one in person. He's gotten contention four
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: or five times in twenty twenty five. He went out
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: there qualify for this event. So he went out there
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: to one of those Monday qualifiers and one in the
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: top five is able to pull it off. Yeah, Leishman.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: For me, he's really playing some quality golf right now.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: He and I deep dive Novack. I sure can, so
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: let's look at the shots, game metrics, especially if we're
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: doing like a full deep dive here. Novak's playing solid golf,
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: especially with his tee to green play. But Novak has
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: not done anything in majors to this point. It's not
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: like he's his first year on tour, but he's not
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: a rookie or anything. He's been around for quite some time.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: His major track record is a tough scene, to say
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: the least. So that's the real argument against a Novack.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: The argument for him, though, is that this is by
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: far his best season on tour, and if he's going
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: to break that major record, it's going to be here
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five. So he's a five out of
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: ten for me. I don't have a hot take either way,
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: but I do like to kind of lay it out,
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: give you the information. I'll let you make that decision
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: for yourself. He said, you're down to eat some Scottie
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: chalk and a twenty max. Yeah, me too, as you
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: can probably tell. And he said this event has the
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: vibes of eating most of the players, spin them out.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: I agree with that, and like I said, the top five,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: top ten, some of those guys are going to survive.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: There are going to be victims, of course, the top five,
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: top ten two. But I have a hard time thinking
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: that one of those guys doesn't win. Absolutely, we're in
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: this together. Branchiers. Thoughts on God are up, So I
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: know I kind of just trashed him a second ago,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: but I'll give you my full thoughts. I don't think
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: he's a terrible play at all. In terms of my projections,
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: he's one of the best plays in the bottom end
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: of the board. However, he's somebody that's getting more ownership
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: than the guys around him. He's over two percent projected
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: owned to my projections. Everyone else around him is zero
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: point five percent owned, So that does a quite big
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: gap at about two and a half percent ownership, but
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: he's still only two and a half percent owned, so
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: he's not chalky enough at that point where you have
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: to take him out of your player poll because of that.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: But I'm choosing to get a little bit sneakier with
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: guys on that portion of the board. So my critique
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: of it, if you weren't here for that section, was
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: that a lot of his stats are coming from weaker
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: field events, some of them betterfield over like the last
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: couple of weeks, but the stuff from like twelve to
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: twenty four rounds ago, so like the last twenty four
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: rounds the first half of that is what tends to
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: kind of scare me about that. Thoughts on Victor Perez
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: and Grio. I think Perez is a decent value play.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: He plays well courses where ball striking is the name
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: of the game, and this would be. I mean, it's
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: a well rounded test, So I guess. I guess he's
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: like a five out of ten. In reality, I don't
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: know if he's the best play and he said Grillo,
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: Grillo's got really good ball striking for him. If you're
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: looking for guys at the bottom end of the board
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: that are gaining off the team gaining on approach, he's
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: by far the best player that you have for the
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: guys praised around him. But like a god, are up
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: the question that we just had there, he's getting a
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: lot more steam than the guys around him. In fact,
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: I think I had Grio at over three percent projected
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: ownership from my lineup for my projections this week. So
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: it's a little tough about that. Didn't answer about Novak
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: and you missed it. I just did sites I might
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: not have seen your question before, so sorry about that.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: How many are in my poll to speak, Brian, So,
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know the exact number off the top of
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: my head, but it's like thirty seven. I think around
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: that number, give or take a couple in either direction,
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: it's about thirty seven. How about a decent pivot or
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: how decent of a pivot is him in that seven
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: K range? Hmmm. The ownership is lower than most, i'd say, Charlie,
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: But if you're looking for a pure pivots, he's not
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: going to give you as much leverage as maybe what
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: you're looking for. Is he a good play though he
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: plays about harder tracks, So I do think you're onto
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: something there, But I do worry that the ownership's not
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: as low as you think. Thoughts on o bear low ownership.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: Not a lot of people are going to be playing
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: o'bert this week BBB, so if you're looking to get
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: different towards the top end of the board, that would
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: be an option to do so. Into the long thing
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: we've heard for the longest time about Obert is that
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: he hits it longest, rare. He plays well at these
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: major championships. I think he'd have to be a good
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: course fit based on that. Guinser here said boots on
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: the ground, Scotty was locked in, so I didn't get
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: to see him. By the way, Corey, come say hi
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: if you see me on the golf board, and that's
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: good to know, though, man, I didn't get to see
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: him today, So let's get info for me and my
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: Scottie outright. I'm not going to share the exact amount
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: I have on Scotty this week, but it's a healthy
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: sum of money and I put a lot of money
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: on to start, but I added him on top of
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: it over the last day or so. How do I
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: feel about Erasmus? Got to keep the ball in play,
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: but if he has a good driving accuracy week. He
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: is a high pedigree player, so I think you could
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: get there. You got Noah Kent, no a Kent. I
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: can't get there, man, but he is a young stud.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: So if you're playing baluster, I guess it's not the
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: worst idea to take a look at Kent. How do
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: I feel about fading Struck a week in major year
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: and around the green is rough? Yeah, I mean you're
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: you're giving me all the reason to fade him myself.
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: I'm personally staying away from him because of the ownership,
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: but uh yeah, there are reasons for fading him. I
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: do think though that, you know, if we're talking about
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: the fade, we do have to mention the other side
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: because I'm not using him in lineups, but his form's
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: great and he's a really good off the t accuracy player.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: Both of those things do matter here. So it's a
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: definitely a risky game when you're taking an option against
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: those kind of guys, but you got to do it
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: at some point. You can't play all the chock. As
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: we were mentioned in he said, you didn't see step
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: on the course the last few days. I did see
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: him today, Cody, so I watched him on the range
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: for quite some time. He looked pretty comfortable. He was
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: hit the ball really straight, which is kind of his
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: calling card. The range session was an eight out of ten.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: He looked better than a lot of the other guys
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: on the range. He said, is the course too long
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: for the short guys? I don't think so, Brian. I
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: think if it rains a whole lot, it could like
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: on Friday Saturday, if it rains a whole bunch, maybe,
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: but if it dries out then absolutely not. The short
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: guys could still play here. Just have to be a
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: really good long iron player if you're going to do that.
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: Thoughts On can't lay, so can't lay it. Have to
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: give a six and a half out of ten On.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: He's not my favorite play, but he does make a
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: whole lot of sense at this golf course, ball striking
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: forum has been there. He's only playing in the big
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: field events too, so like unlike some of those like
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: small sample size five six k guys that I think
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: are full as gold can't lay. Is the exact opposite,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: same thing with Victor Hollland, right, they only play in
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: the best fields. There are guys like Scotty that's still
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: playing some lower tier events. Not to say that Scotty
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: is not the best player in the world. He is, right.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: His shots gained though, are maybe a little bit inflated
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: because he plays in those shitty field events at times.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: Guys that can't like don't do that. So he's yeah,
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: that form really matters, and he's playing some of the
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: best golf in the world for sure. Over under snapped
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: clubs and frustration. Let's go four and a half sites
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: and I'm hammering the over on that, and I'll raise
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: you on that, and say over under two and a
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: half putter snaps and I'll say over on that too.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: Did I see Rory hitting the driver? I didn't see
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: him at all out there, Brian, So I know he
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: had an early tea time today. So that's why I
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: missed him. I didn't get out there until about eleven
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: o'clock am Eastern Thoughts on Zender Shoftley ownership is lower
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: than it should be, Brian. He's a quality player too,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: he said, will we be seeing you in this channel
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: moving forward? Yes, Todd absolutely, rounds two through four will
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: be on this channel, so for showdown if you want
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: to stop by for that. Thoughts on Rose, He's an
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: absolute stud. I mean, especially at harder courses, in majors
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: stud If you play him at like a Pebble Beach
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: Pro am or like I guess a couple of years
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: ago he won that, but like you know, a slightly
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: smaller level field, he's not always the best. And Pebble
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: was the worst example ever by the way, for that,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: so completely scratch that. Let's say, at like the Charles
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: Schwab Challenge, you play a Rose, it's probably not going
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: to work out that you play him at augusta first
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: round leader. It feels like every single year, and even
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: at these harder tracks that are longer off the tee,
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: like Open Championship last year, World Truon wasn't short by
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: any means. He had a lot of success around there too,
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: so I'm okay with it, Brian, especially at the harder
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: the harder tracks, I like Justin Rose thoughts on Gerard
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: really good ball striking form, getting a little bit of steam,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: but not too much. I would say, I only got
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: ten minutes left, by the way, so if I'm going
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: a little bit quicker, that's why I do want to
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: go through as many questions as possible before we put
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: this all together. By the way lane of construction segment
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: we might not be able to do just because I
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: got to end this before eight, so we can do
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: the celebration stream of course for James, but he said
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: thoughts on Riot kind of gave those ones before. Good
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: ball striking form, but is getting some steam, Cedric, said Grazierman.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: He said, thanks for the info, of course, men, I
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: appreciate the kind words. Grazierman. Really low ownership, So if
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: you're looking for a pivot down low, I've seen a
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: lot worse plays, and I like good putters around this course,
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: especially because that's a big defense of Oakmont Country Club
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: and full transparency. He's in my playerpool because of that.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: Thoughts on JJ Spahn, he said, he seems like this
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: might be a good course fit I kind of see
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: it the other way man, just a little bit too
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: short for my liking. And the thing about Spawn too
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: is that his form has fallen off a bit. So
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: the ownership's not super high. If you need a pivot,
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: you can get there. But I'm a little hesitant on
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: that one. He said, Yeah, the Matt McCarty. I did
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: give my thoughts before Allen, so you might want to
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: skip back to that. But I don't love him this week.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: He didn't look very positive on the golf course. Are
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: the two most important stats? Driving accuracy and scrambling? I
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: wouldn't say scrambling from the rough. I'd just say scrambling
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: in general, because it's not all rough. You have bunkers
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: around the green, you have fairway areas around the green
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: and rough. So I would just say scrambling. Shots gained
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: approach would be my number one, then scrambling, and then
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: i'd probably go with the driving accuracy. One golfer everyone
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: is fading that I love. That's a great question, man,
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: Let me think about it. So, because I've got to
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: think through the ownership to kind of get a sense
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: of that, I don't want to say Jordan, because that's
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: not low owned enough probably hmmm, look of the pricing.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: That probably helped me out a little bit more. Let's
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: go to like the seven k range brooks Kepka. I'm
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: playing brooks Keptka. Everyone hates them, Everyone's fandom this week.
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: I'm talking shit on his name and brooks Keptka. When
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: he's low owned, a lot of times he shits on
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: the field. So we'll see thoughts on Pavone. Ooh, that's
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: a tough one for me. Man probably three and a
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: half four out of ten has not played that well
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: in majors outside of Pinehurst. But hey, that was a
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: really impressive US Open last year, so I guess we
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: can't completely overlook that. I will say, though, Pavone super
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: low owned. So like, if you have a good take
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: on him, or you have a key stat that's putting
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: you onto him big, don't let me say that I
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: don't like him this week, Like put you off of him,
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: because if you found a gold nugget, like you know,
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: dive into the rough play down there, he's gonna be
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: sell one percent owned. You only have to throw him
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: in a line up or two to get that leverage.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: So I'm okay with that. Does Harris get steamed. I
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: think so, John. He's towards the top half of my ownership,
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: so it wouldn't surprise me if he got to twenty percent.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: Why would someone play Brian Harmon? I don't know, man,
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: I guess they want to hobb it out here. But
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: I'm playing him this week, so you know, I guess
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: I'm somebody. Any thoughts on EVR. I think that he's
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: a high upside player, but that's not really what we
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: wanted this course. We're looking for guys that can keep
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: it together. And speaking of Brian, Harmon's a grinder, so
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: that's why you'd play him. There's there's plenty of reasons
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: to want to use a Brian Harmon, so I don't
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: Maybe you just don't like him because he's short. I
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: get that he does look like a little hobbit out
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: there Hubbard stand to any chance? Usually is your punt
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: to go to. Oh that's a tough one, man. I
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: play him easy courses. He a high birdy percentage player,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: not really the kind of guy that like grind it
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: out for you. Could he like play well on Showdown
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: for sure? Like I play him in Showdown, Probably wouldn't
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: do it for me and slate though. Are the bunkers
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: as heenious as you've heard, No, they're not Steven. The
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: bunkers are raked a little awkwardly, but they are flat,
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: so you can get some really nasty lies. But if
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: you're in the center of the bunker, they are like
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: irregular tour ones. They're not I mean, they're deep, but
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: they're not anything that these tour players haven't seen. The issue, though,
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: is because they're kind of square shaped, as you can
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: get into the corners let's see. Sorry you missed it,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: but thoughts un luddy so I gave them before. I
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: think he's a decent low owned player. Again, I gotta
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: go through some of the questions you've gone through already
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit quickly. Was there any golfer that I
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: love today that I was having second thoughts on Tommy
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: Fleetwood John He hitting a lot of golf balls. Don't
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: like to see that from guys that I'm playing at
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: high ownership, And he was really the only one that
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: I saw grinding, So a little bit of concern, but
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: I'm still deploying them. Are you crazy to play Leashman?
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: And James Han not on Leashman? But you are crazy?
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: For James Han, he's been in the announcer booth. I'm
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: not sure if you know that. He's been on ESPAN plus,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: so I would stay away from that. Poston looked jolly
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: out there today. He was doing a lot of putting,
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: hit a few balls before he hopped on out of there.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: But what I'll say about posting is that he wasn't
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: grinding on it. He was hitting a few balls, kind
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: of talking to his caddie, talking to some players, and
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: then getting back to hitting. That's the kind of mindset
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: I want to see for my players. If you play
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: outside of Connors for GPP, so you're looking in that
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: seven K range, I guess you know there's there's a
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: lot of options around him. Females not that high ownership,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: go to Henley Bradley if you can afford it a
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: little bit cheaper. Though. I don't love a lot of
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: the players around him, but I know I pointed out
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: fits Songjymbis plays. I thought for decent maybe one of
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: those guys. Does Fox get a lot of ownership. I
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: wouldn't say a lot John just because he was a
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: laid ad. I think probably about eight seven percent something
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: in that range, But higher ownership than most of the
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: guys around him for sure, he said, Luke went through
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: that one before, and oh yeah, it's all we got, guys.
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go ahead cut off the live stream
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: here so that the guys can go through all the
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: celebration stream stuff. I will be doing doing a prop
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: live stream of my channel, so if you guys want
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: to check out the round one prop stuff for underdog
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: and prize picks, you guys can find that on my
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: YouTube channel in a few minutes. And we're also going
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: to be doing stuff for the sportsbooks on matchups and
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: that kind of thing. And because up here in Pennsylvania
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: we don't have the pick'm sites, so there's like no
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: underdog and prize picks and stuff. I'm gonna be doing
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: all this stuff on like DraftKings this week, so it's
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: gonna be using the Juice regular sports books for once.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: So a little bit of a different live stream over there,
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: but still going through all the conditions and everything to
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: expect for Thursday. But it's all I've got, guys, Gonna
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: go ahead and cut it off here is towards the end,
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: and best of luck with everything that you guys are
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: going with for this sort of events and stop and
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: buy for rounds two through four, because for Showdown we're
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: gonna be doing the same exact thing. And yeah, it's
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: gonna be some long days out here for sure, right
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: mean on the golf course, boots on the ground, hot sun.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: But still gonna be doing the live streams as you
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: guys are coming used to. And I've got a pretty
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: good system down for it. You know, I've been on
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: the road for these events for quaite some time. I
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: kind of know what to do. I've got to give
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: myself like an hour nap before we get into the
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: work in the evening. If we do that and we're
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: good to go out there for the entire event, that's
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: all got guys. Best luck and see you guys out
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: there tomorrow night.