Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - March Mailbag

Transcript

The Favorites - March Mailbag · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
0:12
Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from
0:19
Speaker 1: our Tommy Jones home studios. I'm joined as always by
0:23
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Mike Padre, my BFF professional
0:27
Speaker 1: better Assignmon Hunter ed.
0:29
Speaker 2: Oh, so I am mad Chad. How is your birthday week? Brother?
0:32
Speaker 1: Oh my god, dude, I got so lucky. I do
0:37
Speaker 1: a trip every year with friends, all my high school
0:40
Speaker 1: buddies and their wives. There's about twenty five people that go.
0:43
Speaker 1: We've been going for seven or eight years. It's the
0:47
Speaker 1: highlight of my year. It is a phenomenal weekend, no kids.
0:51
Speaker 1: It is constant ball busting laughing. It is truly a
0:57
Speaker 1: gift of a trip. And my birthday happened to be
1:01
Speaker 1: the weekend of this trip this year, so it was
1:04
Speaker 1: just it was a weekend of love and laughter, a
1:06
Speaker 1: day of love and laughter turning old and it was fantastic.
1:12
Speaker 1: Simon just great.
1:14
Speaker 2: Well, so other us were working watching the combine, So
1:17
Speaker 2: I'm happy you had a good time. I was literally
1:20
Speaker 2: bored out of my mind. I always forget how much
1:22
Speaker 2: I love and hate the combine. It's cool at moments.
1:24
Speaker 2: Other moments are just like what am I doing in
1:26
Speaker 2: my life? Why am I even watching this? Am I
1:28
Speaker 2: gaining anything from this? So yeah, another weekend of NFL
1:31
Speaker 2: Combine gone, and yeah, already onto the next season. Brother,
1:34
Speaker 2: it feels like that's the kickoff party. So into twenty
1:36
Speaker 2: twenty five week go.
1:38
Speaker 1: I did get a nice text from you, which I loved.
1:41
Speaker 1: So kind of you to think of me on my birthday.
1:43
Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna call, but God bless women. Dude.
1:46
Speaker 2: I was out at dinner with a girl and the
1:47
Speaker 2: luckily I was with her the day before and told
1:49
Speaker 2: her I had texted you to make sure throughout the dinner.
1:52
Speaker 2: She goes, you call your buddy, Chad. I go, holy shit,
1:55
Speaker 2: I almost reach out to them before the birthday. Did
1:57
Speaker 2: hit him on the birthday, So thank god for women.
2:00
Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of a preemptive birthday text, like
2:04
Speaker 1: if I remember, if I remember the day before, I'm like,
2:06
Speaker 1: oh shit, it's their birthday tomorrow. I'll send it the
2:08
Speaker 1: day before me like this counts is your birthday text?
2:11
Speaker 1: I'm not sure it's going to enter the banks tomorrow.
2:14
Speaker 1: Speaking of NFL, signmon. Today is our first off season
2:18
Speaker 1: mailback episode. We're going to answer questions submitted from listeners.
2:22
Speaker 1: As you would expect, so many of these questions are
2:26
Speaker 1: NFL related. So I'm glad you're thinking about it. I'm
2:28
Speaker 1: thinking about it. We've both put in futures bets into
2:33
Speaker 1: the app. I've already put in I think the Niners,
2:37
Speaker 1: and I put in the Packers. You've put in the Rams.
2:42
Speaker 2: I did put it. The Rams in got it.
2:45
Speaker 1: Rams didn't come up when we had our last conversation
2:47
Speaker 1: for what they did.
2:48
Speaker 2: I like the Rams, I said, I just didn't bet
2:50
Speaker 2: them because the unknown of Stafford. Once I knew what
2:52
Speaker 2: was gonna happen with Stafford was going to do it.
2:53
Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean, we can get into it, but
2:56
Speaker 2: it was definitely a weekend of rumors, I'll tell you
2:58
Speaker 2: that much. Chad like the hold Stafford to the Raiders. Yeah,
3:01
Speaker 2: I almost got caught in that one because I thought
3:03
Speaker 2: that was like, legit gonna happen. He was basically like
3:07
Speaker 2: a done deal kind of thing. And then the last
3:09
Speaker 2: minute the Rams came back and we're just like, you know,
3:11
Speaker 2: we'll pay you. So, yeah, Glad, I did not put
3:13
Speaker 2: the Raiders into the Action app because that's looking like
3:16
Speaker 2: a Sam Darnold kind of bet. So yeah, glad I
3:19
Speaker 2: avoided the Raiders Super Bowl Futures bet.
3:21
Speaker 1: Well, look, if you had put in the Raiders, it
3:23
Speaker 1: could have been in our mail bag. Twenty twenty six.
3:25
Speaker 1: Is your worst futures bet of twenty twenty nives out,
3:28
Speaker 1: which is one of the questions that we have today
3:31
Speaker 1: as a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by
3:33
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty
3:36
Speaker 1: five customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus
3:39
Speaker 1: bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo
3:42
Speaker 1: code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five
3:44
Speaker 1: dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
3:47
Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
3:50
Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. Bet three
3:52
Speaker 1: sixty five must be twenty one or older and present
3:55
Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
4:01
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
4:04
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
4:07
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Okay, before we get into
4:11
Speaker 1: the questions, don't forget. You can officially RSVP for our free, free,
4:18
Speaker 1: free favorites live show event in the greatest city in
4:24
Speaker 1: the world, Chicago, Illinois. This will be for the Elite
4:27
Speaker 1: eight March Madness Games on Saturday, March twenty ninth the
4:31
Speaker 1: Joe's Bar on Weed Street also known more popularly known
4:37
Speaker 1: as Joe's on Weed in Chicago. Free event, free drinks,
4:40
Speaker 1: free live show. You must RSVP to reserve your spot.
4:43
Speaker 1: Follow the link in this episode's description. What are we
4:47
Speaker 1: doing there? We'll do an exclusive pregame Elite eight betting
4:51
Speaker 1: show before tip with Stucky Action Network OG Stucky Jim
4:56
Speaker 1: Root both of them at our Big Bets on Campus podcast.
5:00
Speaker 1: Jim Rude, of course, one of the three man Weave
5:04
Speaker 1: members one of the best college basketball analytics groups in
5:10
Speaker 1: the country. We're going to break down the games from
5:12
Speaker 1: a betting perspective. We'll do some trivia giveaways. We should
5:16
Speaker 1: we should have another truckload of merch on hand if
5:19
Speaker 1: those who were in Philly can recall it. Was basically
5:24
Speaker 1: a moment in which Matt Mitchell created questions for people
5:29
Speaker 1: to bash me and then get free hoodies. So that
5:32
Speaker 1: sounds like it's going to be a good time. Some
5:35
Speaker 1: folks might have asked why Chicago. One of the biggest
5:37
Speaker 1: reasons It's Bet three sixty five is launching in the
5:39
Speaker 1: state of Illinois in the weeks ahead. Very exciting development
5:43
Speaker 1: for the fine folks of Illinois, my statehood brethren. All Right, Simon,
5:50
Speaker 1: first question, the day before our Chicago live show. Friend
5:54
Speaker 1: of the podcast, Chris Long turns forty. Man's getting old.
5:58
Speaker 1: We love Chris. He retired after a stellar career as
6:04
Speaker 1: a defensive end, a fantastic career, multiple Super Bowls. He's
6:08
Speaker 1: hosted the green Light podcast for many years now. Most importantly,
6:12
Speaker 1: Chris Long was and remains a physical beast. So the
6:15
Speaker 1: question is, if we froze my current physical condition in place,
6:22
Speaker 1: what age would Chris Long have to be for me
6:26
Speaker 1: in Chad Milman twenty twenty five years to confidently defeat
6:29
Speaker 1: him in a fight. What do you think? The answer is,
6:33
Speaker 1: I mean.
6:34
Speaker 2: I think you're scrappy, Chad. I think you're a little
6:36
Speaker 2: scrapp for the people perceive so I guess, just because
6:40
Speaker 2: of the genetic freak, I guess at some point in
6:43
Speaker 2: his eighties, right, like his hips, his knees, something's gonna
6:47
Speaker 2: go on that guy. He's pushed his body to the limit.
6:49
Speaker 2: Chad here not so much. So I feel like you
6:52
Speaker 2: have an advantage there. So I guess, Yeah, I guess
6:55
Speaker 2: Chris Long eighty five, Chad could easily take him down.
6:58
Speaker 1: All right, So I thought a lot about this. And
7:04
Speaker 1: you know, I exercise a lot. I'm on the rowing machine,
7:07
Speaker 1: I'm on the peloton, I do light weightlifting. You know,
7:10
Speaker 1: I'm about bone density, I'm about flexibility, I'm about stability,
7:13
Speaker 1: I'm about eating right, I'm about BO two max, all
7:16
Speaker 1: those things. I'm looking for health span, Okay, not lifespan,
7:20
Speaker 1: health span. And I believe I am in better physical
7:23
Speaker 1: condition today than I've been in my entire life. So
7:27
Speaker 1: if I was able to freeze this in place. My
7:30
Speaker 1: diet consists of nuts, legomes, beans, occasional chicken, lots of salmon, vegetables,
7:43
Speaker 1: very little sugar, very little processed food. I am a
7:47
Speaker 1: specimen right now, Simon. I like I have tensile strength,
7:54
Speaker 1: tensile strength. I'm doing the weighted step ups, and you
7:58
Speaker 1: got a dumbbell in both hands. I'm stepping up. I
8:00
Speaker 1: did it at the gym when we were in Palm Springs.
8:02
Speaker 1: I went twice in the three days we were there.
8:05
Speaker 2: I think any of this is going to help you
8:07
Speaker 2: in a fight in any way.
8:08
Speaker 1: My point, it's a good time for me to freeze
8:11
Speaker 1: myself in place. The age for Chris long for me.
8:14
Speaker 1: You said eighty five. I wrote down eighty three, and
8:17
Speaker 1: my thoughts were, by then, maybe he'll have let himself go.
8:21
Speaker 1: Like clearly he's physical marvel, naturally gifted, naturally athletic, naturally strong,
8:29
Speaker 1: and then he did all the work with criored on
8:30
Speaker 1: top of that, which he maintains. He's taller, he's stronger.
8:35
Speaker 1: But I think by eighty three, maybe he's let himself go.
8:38
Speaker 1: I think some of the achiness from football, like he
8:40
Speaker 1: might not be able to move around. I'll be able to,
8:43
Speaker 1: you know, maneuver, scurry, deflect. So I had it at
8:50
Speaker 1: eighty three, Oh.
8:51
Speaker 2: Said, that's the only way you could beat him, because
8:53
Speaker 2: if he got his hands on you, it would even
8:55
Speaker 2: at that age, old man's strength. Like I was gonna say,
8:58
Speaker 2: I've seen like you were talking about you beat in
9:00
Speaker 2: great shape. I've seen guys in peak physical fitness get
9:03
Speaker 2: dropped by senior citizens because it's all about technique and fighting,
9:08
Speaker 2: and Chris had the ultimate cheek code. He has a
9:10
Speaker 2: house full of freak brothers who I'm sure they fought
9:14
Speaker 2: a ton growing up. So yeah, we would both need
9:16
Speaker 2: Chris to be incredibly old to be able to take
9:18
Speaker 2: him down.
9:19
Speaker 1: You're right, the brother factor and sort of the muscle
9:23
Speaker 1: memory of being in that position. It's not the same
9:27
Speaker 1: for me, given that I had a sister who was
9:30
Speaker 1: seven years younger than I am. At all, we get
9:33
Speaker 1: a lot of questions about your model, namely, what are
9:39
Speaker 1: the most important inputs, So let's start with that question.
9:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, we tell people like to start at the top.
9:46
Speaker 2: If you're trying to build a football model, the most
9:48
Speaker 2: important position pretty basic, Go to the quarterback, and then
9:52
Speaker 2: I think not enough people realize the next position on.
9:55
Speaker 2: You know, fans think of the running backs, the wide receivers,
10:00
Speaker 2: those type of positions, right, chare And we always talk
10:01
Speaker 2: about it's all about the DEAL line, the O line.
10:03
Speaker 2: So for me, if you want to go D line
10:05
Speaker 2: over O line, no problem. I know plenty of people
10:08
Speaker 2: who value that higher than they do O line. I
10:11
Speaker 2: do put O line above D line and then you
10:13
Speaker 2: can build out from there. So yeah, for me, it
10:17
Speaker 2: really is all about the quarterback, the O lines D lines,
10:20
Speaker 2: and then you know, I know plenty of people that
10:22
Speaker 2: factor in the coaching and you know, the biggest adjustment
10:25
Speaker 2: this year, I mean, I know that's part of this
10:28
Speaker 2: question coming up. What's the you know, adjustments I'm making
10:31
Speaker 2: through the model. It's going to be. We talked about
10:32
Speaker 2: the fourth down success rate, Like I can't overlook how
10:36
Speaker 2: important that was this past season, how much that changed football,
10:38
Speaker 2: Like we just we've never seen it go up like
10:41
Speaker 2: it did this past season. That's something I really do
10:43
Speaker 2: need a factor in my model. You know, teams being
10:45
Speaker 2: more risk averse and that's that is a big deal.
10:48
Speaker 2: And we talk about like we did this past year,
10:51
Speaker 2: about the favorites compared to the dogs, Right, the better quarterbacks,
10:54
Speaker 2: even if they're on that not that much better of
10:56
Speaker 2: a team. If the quarterback is such an important position
10:58
Speaker 2: that if they teams have the trust to go from
11:01
Speaker 2: their fourth downs rather than a team that you know,
11:04
Speaker 2: like the Saints and Derek Carr, which means you had
11:05
Speaker 2: to have zero faith on fourth down that it's going
11:07
Speaker 2: to be a completion. It is a big difference when
11:10
Speaker 2: youre talking about betting, Like I'm more I'm more able
11:14
Speaker 2: to put money on it's a quarterback of a favorite
11:17
Speaker 2: that I believe in rather than a dog at this
11:18
Speaker 2: point with a quarterback I don't believe in, because these
11:21
Speaker 2: fourth down tendencies are just it's just different in the
11:23
Speaker 2: NFL than it was just say, four years ago. Like
11:25
Speaker 2: this is really a new age type of thing we're
11:27
Speaker 2: dealing with here. So that's definitely something this offseason I'm
11:30
Speaker 2: going to dive way more into. Is the fourth down
11:32
Speaker 2: success rate?
11:33
Speaker 1: When you say quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, do you
11:37
Speaker 1: do anything with overall offensive power ratings, defensive power ratings?
11:44
Speaker 1: Like to me, I would start top down offensive power rating,
11:48
Speaker 1: defensive power rating, and then like incorporate quarterback and then
11:52
Speaker 1: offensive line. But I feel like those two sides plus
11:57
Speaker 1: quarterback would end up being like eighty five percent of
12:00
Speaker 1: what I was looking at.
12:02
Speaker 2: You could I use what I use grading for, especially
12:04
Speaker 2: like Pro Football Focus is like going to their grades
12:07
Speaker 2: about different players where I'm not keen in on right,
12:09
Speaker 2: Like there's a couple of guys that come in to
12:11
Speaker 2: the league and you're not really sure about and you're
12:14
Speaker 2: not paying attention to those teams, and they kind of
12:15
Speaker 2: pop on film. Film doesn't really all explain if a
12:19
Speaker 2: player is good or not. And that's really like you're
12:20
Speaker 2: talking about individual stats and numbers. Definitely that's something I
12:23
Speaker 2: dive into. But if you're trying to incorporate all that
12:26
Speaker 2: into your model, you can do that, but that is
12:28
Speaker 2: a ton of work, and you know them might muddy
12:31
Speaker 2: the waters a little bit because it could make you
12:33
Speaker 2: over adjust the different things. Like you know, we joked
12:35
Speaker 2: about a Cooper de Gene join the Eagles. You look
12:39
Speaker 2: at how he ended the year. He ended out of
12:40
Speaker 2: the year is like a top five cornerback Nickel, Like,
12:44
Speaker 2: that's that's the type of thing where you do need
12:46
Speaker 2: to be ahead of and adjust that in your model.
12:48
Speaker 2: The fact that he isn't proven a defense that much.
12:51
Speaker 2: So I agree with you. There are there are individual
12:53
Speaker 2: stats to dive into. But yeah, for what I do now,
12:55
Speaker 2: it's it's kind of a median, right. I use them
12:58
Speaker 2: and a bunch of other different websites to try get
13:00
Speaker 2: one media number on each player grade rather than individual
13:03
Speaker 2: each player grade.
13:04
Speaker 1: Right, But what I'm saying, is overall offensive power raiding
13:08
Speaker 1: overall defensive.
13:10
Speaker 2: You're saying, you know that's v though we talk about
13:13
Speaker 2: that all the time. That's that's DVA, Like do you
13:15
Speaker 2: want to do that?
13:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, why do you hate DVOA.
13:19
Speaker 2: I don't. I just think it's like it's just the
13:22
Speaker 2: boying lazy man tool in a lot of ways. Right,
13:25
Speaker 2: Like the Lions played the the Washington the playoffs, DVOA,
13:31
Speaker 2: they had a way better grade because they were better
13:32
Speaker 2: all season. If they even if they adjust by the
13:34
Speaker 2: season goes along, you know, dv O was gonna favorite
13:38
Speaker 2: big time the Lions team against that Washington team, where
13:42
Speaker 2: when you really break it down, their DVO is much
13:44
Speaker 2: closer because that Washington kept on improving throughout the season
13:47
Speaker 2: towards heading to the playoffs. Or on the flip side,
13:50
Speaker 2: the Lions were just dying, like they were just slowly
13:53
Speaker 2: dying and there was nothing they could really do. So
13:55
Speaker 2: I do love DVA, but I explained to you, I
13:57
Speaker 2: just think it's a tool where some people just simp
14:00
Speaker 2: use that as their metric for every bet they make
14:02
Speaker 2: on just I think that's way too risky and too
14:04
Speaker 2: basic to use like that.
14:05
Speaker 1: No, I don't think you can do that. I've actually
14:07
Speaker 1: you and I've talked about this from about the past month,
14:12
Speaker 1: been thinking really hard about modeling and what the inputs
14:19
Speaker 1: should be. And everyone I talked to they don't use
14:25
Speaker 1: DVA exclusively, but they do use some form of offensive
14:31
Speaker 1: power rating, defensive power rating, quarterback rating. Offensive line comes
14:36
Speaker 1: up less, defensive line comes up less. And then like
14:42
Speaker 1: success metrics, you know, because and that's a new advanced
14:45
Speaker 1: analytic for the NFL that does measure sort of how
14:48
Speaker 1: well you perform in those ten yard increments, right, And
14:51
Speaker 1: so to me, that's a really interesting metric to start
14:54
Speaker 1: to think about if you are looking for new keys
14:59
Speaker 1: too analyzing teams, because it tends to indicate how well
15:04
Speaker 1: a team is performing in the most basic of expectations,
15:09
Speaker 1: which is getting a first down.
15:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, but like those numbers two you're diving into there,
15:15
Speaker 2: that's that's also people looking for matchups that can take
15:18
Speaker 2: advantage of. Right. So yeah, that makes total sense in
15:23
Speaker 2: my view.
15:25
Speaker 1: I like when you agree with me makes me happy.
15:29
Speaker 1: As I get older, Simon just makes me feel like
15:33
Speaker 1: I'm getting smarter, But so are you, because you're thinking
15:35
Speaker 1: on my level now. As an old person looking back
15:39
Speaker 1: at last season. The first the worst futures bet you
15:45
Speaker 1: made for me? It's easy, Like I saw this question
15:49
Speaker 1: and I didn't have to think hard at all. I
15:53
Speaker 1: bet on the Vikings to have the worst record in
15:56
Speaker 1: the NFL because I had so little faith in Sam Donald.
16:02
Speaker 1: I thought the team needed to restock. I was not
16:05
Speaker 1: a fan of the signing of Andrew van Ginkel and
16:10
Speaker 1: getting rid of Daniel Hunter, so I just thought, this
16:14
Speaker 1: is a team that is going to start over. Little
16:18
Speaker 1: did I know Kevin O'Connell really was the genius that
16:20
Speaker 1: I thought he was, and Sam Donald was gonna have
16:23
Speaker 1: a brilliant year. So for me, that's the one.
16:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll join you on that one. That was definitely
16:30
Speaker 2: our worst take, but it's also it's why we love football, right.
16:33
Speaker 2: They were basically every one of those games were play
16:36
Speaker 2: away pretty much from being you know, four and thirteen,
16:40
Speaker 2: Like they had a ton of really good luck in
16:42
Speaker 2: one square games and Sam Donald played it insane level
16:45
Speaker 2: that there is no one in the world that can
16:48
Speaker 2: say they knew that Sam Donald was gonna play at
16:49
Speaker 2: that level for that whole season. So they're going to
16:52
Speaker 2: be coming up a lot here. If we're talking about
16:53
Speaker 2: worst things we did this past season, because it took
16:55
Speaker 2: me a minute to believe in this Vikings team, like
16:58
Speaker 2: I was fighting them, Like we talked about we were
17:01
Speaker 2: heavy on them being the worst team. Like my three
17:03
Speaker 2: worst teams were them, Tennessee and New England nailed the
17:06
Speaker 2: other two got absolutely slaughtered obviously on the Vikings. But
17:09
Speaker 2: we talk all the time. It's tough to know how
17:13
Speaker 2: these quarterbacks can perform in new situations and new teams.
17:16
Speaker 2: And Sam Darnold, you know, totally totally played out of
17:21
Speaker 2: this world, just like we've seen Baker playing in Tampa. Like,
17:23
Speaker 2: these guys get to these new teams, if they have
17:25
Speaker 2: the right coach and the right talent around them, it's
17:27
Speaker 2: pretty incredible what they can do. But yeah, the Vikings
17:30
Speaker 2: clearly don't believe in the long term. They'll let him walk.
17:33
Speaker 1: What's interesting about the Bucks and Baker that has been
17:36
Speaker 1: really impressive. That bodes well I think for him back
17:41
Speaker 1: to back years now with a new offensive coordinator. Yeah,
17:45
Speaker 1: and did great both years from Canalis to Liam Khne
17:48
Speaker 1: and now he's going to have to do it again.
17:51
Speaker 1: I would be less worried about it if I were
17:53
Speaker 1: a Bucks fan, then I might have previously been because
17:56
Speaker 1: he's proven what he's good at. They's got moxie get
18:00
Speaker 1: behind and all of a sudden, I think that's a
18:02
Speaker 1: lot to build on versus a right, here's another journeyman
18:05
Speaker 1: QB that we're not really sold on. I think that's
18:08
Speaker 1: gonna be the problem with Donald is you're gonna have
18:10
Speaker 1: to see if people really start to rally around him
18:14
Speaker 1: as he decided, if he ends up going somewhere else,
18:17
Speaker 1: and if he can repeat the success the way Baker
18:20
Speaker 1: has done it. Simon which individual game bet to you
18:26
Speaker 1: look back on and hate the most. I have a
18:30
Speaker 1: list of so many, and I've been trying to figure
18:34
Speaker 1: out which one I hate the most. You tell me
18:37
Speaker 1: what yours is.
18:38
Speaker 2: Mine's mind's easy. It's Week two. I'm almost positive was
18:43
Speaker 2: week too. It was forty nine ers first the Vikings,
18:46
Speaker 2: and it was like definitely one of these moments where
18:49
Speaker 2: like everyone thinks the shit don't stink, and I had
18:53
Speaker 2: a moment there where I was like, I thought I
18:55
Speaker 2: was smarter than a lot of guys who I respect
18:56
Speaker 2: in this business. They basically told me all week to
19:00
Speaker 2: bet my house on the Vikings first to forty nine ers.
19:03
Speaker 2: I think the Vikings opened as a plus six dog
19:06
Speaker 2: or plus six and a half and it got down
19:08
Speaker 2: to four and a half four by kickoff and whatever
19:12
Speaker 2: happened that someday Morening, Not only did I load up
19:14
Speaker 2: on the four nineers, I made you put them in
19:16
Speaker 2: the competition. Well, we both knew. I said it too,
19:19
Speaker 2: this is going to lose, but I need to bet
19:21
Speaker 2: it anyway. Like I have no idea what I was
19:24
Speaker 2: going through at that time period, my head wasn't just
19:27
Speaker 2: spinning because normally nine out of ten times I would
19:29
Speaker 2: have been on the Vikings in that spot ultimate trap spot,
19:32
Speaker 2: undervalue team as a dog at home. And yeah, my
19:36
Speaker 2: hate for the Vikings was just too strong. Again, we
19:39
Speaker 2: all make mistakes, especially as a professional, but that was
19:42
Speaker 2: when I was just like, fuck, that was such an
19:44
Speaker 2: amateur bet, so that that definitely haunted me this past season.
19:48
Speaker 1: I am going to go to first week of October,
19:54
Speaker 1: October sixth, Joe Burrow and the Bengals against the Baltimore
19:59
Speaker 1: raven Yeah, Bengals are two and a half point dogs.
20:04
Speaker 1: We still believe in the Bengals at this point. The
20:06
Speaker 1: Ravens defense has been playing terribly. They're letting teams back
20:10
Speaker 1: in it NonStop in the first half of the year.
20:13
Speaker 1: We're thinking, Bengals outright is the play? So two and
20:16
Speaker 1: a half is value.
20:18
Speaker 2: I swear you were gonna go Bears. Bears commanders here,
20:21
Speaker 2: but that was such a Chad moment.
20:26
Speaker 1: That was That was God, that was pretty bad too.
20:28
Speaker 1: I forgot about it, you know what I want.
20:30
Speaker 2: I'm sorry you blocked it. I should never even brought
20:32
Speaker 2: it up.
20:32
Speaker 1: You just I totally forgot about it. Because the Bears
20:35
Speaker 1: game that was on my list was when we had
20:36
Speaker 1: the Lions minus nine and a half and they were
20:39
Speaker 1: they should have been up there in the first half
20:41
Speaker 1: and the Bears covered. It was Cincinnati two and a half,
20:45
Speaker 1: because that was a game that also to me, like
20:48
Speaker 1: the Bears. Whatever. The Bears, you know, they weren't a
20:53
Speaker 1: team that we believed in. They were a team that
20:55
Speaker 1: that if anything good happened, we were excited. That was
20:59
Speaker 1: a bad beat, but this was a beat that felt
21:02
Speaker 1: indicative of the season.
21:04
Speaker 2: Okay for us, where.
21:06
Speaker 1: We're winning, we're winning, we're winning. Joe Burrow, who has
21:11
Speaker 1: the best year he's ever had, maybe has the worst
21:14
Speaker 1: play he makes the entire season, and we end up
21:18
Speaker 1: losing the bet on a field goal by a kicker
21:22
Speaker 1: who was having his worst season and happened to make
21:24
Speaker 1: his best kick in that game. So it wasn't like
21:28
Speaker 1: it wasn't like, oh, things weren't going our way. It's
21:31
Speaker 1: like the extremes didn't go our way. No, and that
21:36
Speaker 1: game was indicative of everything that went wrong for our season.
21:43
Speaker 2: They're brutal.
21:45
Speaker 1: You remember you know the game I'm talking about.
21:47
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I remember Moll Brother. I don't remember the wins.
21:50
Speaker 2: I remember all the losses.
21:51
Speaker 1: Well, that's what makes this next question so hard. Like
21:53
Speaker 1: when I saw this question, I made a bunch of
21:55
Speaker 1: notes in the script and I had I had seven
22:00
Speaker 1: or eight answers for this one, including any Tennessee boy
22:05
Speaker 1: to bet at any point in the season, and any
22:07
Speaker 1: Carolina bet in the first half of the season, and
22:10
Speaker 1: basically any Jets bet all season, right because because they
22:14
Speaker 1: were fucking us all year, the ones I liked. I
22:17
Speaker 1: basically had three games a bet that I look back
22:21
Speaker 1: on and it still makes me happy. I pinpointed Miami
22:29
Speaker 1: minus five and a half at the Jets in early December,
22:32
Speaker 1: where because jeff Elbrick is such a bad head coach,
22:37
Speaker 1: and made such terrible decisions when it came to fourth
22:40
Speaker 1: downs and managing the clock. Even when Miami had no
22:46
Speaker 1: business covering a six point spread, they did it in
22:50
Speaker 1: overtime against the Jets and it never felt like we
22:53
Speaker 1: were out of it. And then Carolina covering again, covering
22:57
Speaker 1: a six point spread against Tampa first week of to
22:59
Speaker 1: say also was a big one for me.
23:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would just say regular season, that's that's a
23:05
Speaker 2: big one for me. The Panthers over the Bucks just
23:09
Speaker 2: because we love them, We hammered them. We kept saying
23:12
Speaker 2: that was a great spot to take them. The Bucks
23:15
Speaker 2: were going one way, the Panthers were going another way,
23:18
Speaker 2: and yeah, that one was going for for the full season,
23:22
Speaker 2: I would say I'd have to go to the playoffs. That
23:25
Speaker 2: That Washington over the Lions game was just epic. It's
23:28
Speaker 2: why I love the show like it was one of
23:31
Speaker 2: the rare times we really loved the dog. We talked
23:33
Speaker 2: about them a NonStop, even game out the money line,
23:37
Speaker 2: and it's the best because you hear a ton of
23:40
Speaker 2: noise those types of weeks, right because there's only four
23:42
Speaker 2: games going on, Especially Lions fans, right, they have every
23:45
Speaker 2: right to be really passionate about their team and them
23:48
Speaker 2: and there the line fans and the backers of that
23:50
Speaker 2: team were just NonStop that whole week. Like anytime I'd
23:54
Speaker 2: say anything on social media, even if I didn't say shit,
23:56
Speaker 2: I was getting messages constantly how big of a fucking
23:59
Speaker 2: idiot I am. And just to see the fact that
24:02
Speaker 2: they rolled like they did in Washington, the fact that
24:05
Speaker 2: Jane Daniels played a perfect game. Their defense had the
24:07
Speaker 2: three picks, the pick six, our four interceptions, three off golf,
24:11
Speaker 2: but all of the just lined up and it was
24:13
Speaker 2: just you know, obviously the Eagles fan, Eagle games as
24:16
Speaker 2: a fan, those are the most fun games to watch.
24:18
Speaker 2: Is just astray better. That Washington game was so much
24:20
Speaker 2: fun to watch because of the build up to it
24:23
Speaker 2: and the fact that it just kept going their way
24:25
Speaker 2: throughout the game. Right, It was a nice slow burn
24:28
Speaker 2: of just dominating that Detroit team because it was I mean,
24:31
Speaker 2: people forget it was back and forth that Troy was
24:33
Speaker 2: running for like two hundred yards. They could do whatever
24:35
Speaker 2: they want, and then all of a sudden that pick
24:37
Speaker 2: six happened and it just flipped that entire game. So yeah,
24:41
Speaker 2: that was a really fun memory that Washington Lions game.
24:45
Speaker 1: Here's another question, Simon. So many of our listeners are
24:49
Speaker 1: pondering but are afraid to ask. Luckily, using my incredible
24:53
Speaker 1: powers of discernment, I am channeling that question right now.
24:57
Speaker 1: These listeners, they are uncomfortable and they're daily lives. They
25:00
Speaker 1: lack the confidence to achieve greatness. What the access can
25:05
Speaker 1: they do? How can they transform their lives for the better?
25:08
Speaker 1: What tools do they lack? Well, I've got good news listeners.
25:13
Speaker 1: Everything you need is just to click away one click
25:15
Speaker 1: to Tommy john dot com slash favorites to transport you
25:19
Speaker 1: to a world of comfort, confidence, and transformative change. That's
25:24
Speaker 1: because our beloved sponsor Tommy John offers flexible, breathable, high
25:27
Speaker 1: performance comfort of top quality underwear and casual essentials, delivering
25:31
Speaker 1: the confidence you need to unleash your fullest potential. And
25:36
Speaker 1: with a special sale for our listeners, ascending to a
25:40
Speaker 1: higher plane of existence just got even easier. Simon, why
25:44
Speaker 1: will you be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?
25:47
Speaker 2: Because comfort is king?
25:49
Speaker 1: Right now, you can shop Tommy john dot com slash
25:52
Speaker 1: favorites and get twenty five percent off your first order.
25:54
Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy john dot com slash favorites.
25:57
Speaker 1: That's Tommy john dot com slash favorites. This is going
26:03
Speaker 1: to be the eighth NFL season since passed about The
26:06
Speaker 1: Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act was repealed in May of
26:14
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. What are some of the biggest changes you've seen,
26:18
Speaker 1: Simon in NFL betting markets? What are some of the
26:21
Speaker 1: biggest differences between years prior to legalization and today. That
26:26
Speaker 1: could be teaser pricing, market choices, sharper lines, availability to information, scrutiny,
26:34
Speaker 1: you name it.
26:35
Speaker 2: Oh, it's tough, brother, because I hate being negative more
26:38
Speaker 2: of the offseason. But people that bitch and moan about
26:41
Speaker 2: the good old days, they're kind of right. In the systems.
26:43
Speaker 2: Everything is just worse. Everything is just absolutely worse in
26:48
Speaker 2: this field. But it's always darkest before the dawn, my friend,
26:51
Speaker 2: and things will get turned around the future. I just
26:53
Speaker 2: think we're in a weird, very weird time period right
26:55
Speaker 2: now when it comes to sports betting values. I mean
26:59
Speaker 2: some book legit give out I mean, Chad knows they
27:02
Speaker 2: give out a minus one twenty on a side and
27:03
Speaker 2: a minus one twenty on the other side. I can't
27:06
Speaker 2: believe that's legal in this country, that these books can
27:09
Speaker 2: do that type of stuff. So it's there's a lot,
27:12
Speaker 2: there's there's so much I could go, well, get down.
27:14
Speaker 2: It's been an episode on a whole episode on that
27:16
Speaker 2: type of question. But my biggest one I always preach
27:20
Speaker 2: to people is have multiple books. I hope, I hope
27:23
Speaker 2: you're in a state where you have multiple books. We
27:25
Speaker 2: can price and shop around because I mean, every dime
27:29
Speaker 2: does matter, every every cent they take from you on
27:32
Speaker 2: the line does matter, and that adds up if you
27:34
Speaker 2: want to be a long term successful better it's a
27:37
Speaker 2: big deal. But to me, the good thing in this
27:40
Speaker 2: industry is that someone like me personally, I've got to
27:44
Speaker 2: know people at different sports books, work with guys, and
27:46
Speaker 2: there are good guys out there running books that will
27:49
Speaker 2: take bets and you can work with them and they'll
27:50
Speaker 2: reach out to you and try to help bounce their
27:53
Speaker 2: books out. But a couple of the books that are
27:55
Speaker 2: just too big to fail, that can do whatever the
27:57
Speaker 2: hell they want. It's it's just a different, totally different world.
28:00
Speaker 2: So yeah, as the public, my best advice would be
28:03
Speaker 2: multiple books. It's the key to everything here is just
28:06
Speaker 2: shop around, find the best number in the best line.
28:08
Speaker 1: It's so interesting you say, you know, every every dime
28:15
Speaker 1: matters if you want to be a long term successful
28:18
Speaker 1: better I don't know if people do want to be that.
28:23
Speaker 1: You know, when we started Action and I when I
28:25
Speaker 1: saw this question, the immediate answer to me was same
28:31
Speaker 1: game parlays. And I don't mean that as a negative
28:36
Speaker 1: or a positive. The question was what is the biggest difference. Obviously,
28:40
Speaker 1: same game parlays were not a thing before we launched
28:45
Speaker 1: Action and before the repeal of PASPA, they just didn't exist, right,
28:50
Speaker 1: And so when we launched Action, we thought everyone want
28:54
Speaker 1: to everyone would want to bet the way we do,
28:57
Speaker 1: which is you don't care about the team that's playing.
29:01
Speaker 1: You're searching for the biggest edge at the best price
29:05
Speaker 1: on sides totals. That's really where that's the markets that
29:09
Speaker 1: were most dominantly available, and that's how we approached it,
29:15
Speaker 1: That's how operators were approaching it. And so remember this,
29:21
Speaker 1: we wanted best bet, no matter the team, at best
29:26
Speaker 1: price with the biggest edge. Parlays have become so popular.
29:32
Speaker 1: Same game parlays have become so popular. And while there
29:35
Speaker 1: are certainly edges and we do our best to identify
29:39
Speaker 1: the edges and the opportunities and the value and all
29:41
Speaker 1: these things. Those still aren't the bets that you make
29:45
Speaker 1: that are the most ROI positive, the most positive ev
29:50
Speaker 1: And so it turns out people kind of just want
29:55
Speaker 1: the worst bets on their favorite team that's going to
29:57
Speaker 1: make in the most money in the shortest amount of time.
30:00
Speaker 1: And so to me, that's kind of the biggest difference
30:04
Speaker 1: is the advent of these parlay markets.
30:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I've obviously tons of people I grew up with,
30:13
Speaker 2: friends I've known a long time that's I could tell
30:17
Speaker 2: them exactly the answers to the test, but they're going
30:19
Speaker 2: to want to do their own take their own tests, right,
30:21
Speaker 2: They don't. They don't want to bet the smart starup
30:23
Speaker 2: sides like you talked about. Well, they might throw my
30:25
Speaker 2: bet into the parlay, but what you just talked about
30:27
Speaker 2: so true. Chat, I don't argue against it because you're right.
30:31
Speaker 2: Most people watching, you know, they don't care. That's why
30:33
Speaker 2: I love our show. It's unique where we're doing pick contests.
30:36
Speaker 2: That's why most people listen to us as we're trying
30:38
Speaker 2: to help them with their pick contests and give their
30:40
Speaker 2: view of a different perspective on a pick contest where
30:42
Speaker 2: you know, most betters these days, especially guys I know,
30:46
Speaker 2: if they have one hundred dollars to bet that Sunday,
30:49
Speaker 2: they want to do ten different five team t parlays
30:52
Speaker 2: or whatever with ten dollars on each one, and they're
30:54
Speaker 2: hoping to hit just one of them to get their
30:56
Speaker 2: money back, or maybe make twenty bucks on top or
30:59
Speaker 2: something like that. I get that's a lot of the
31:01
Speaker 2: people now, and you know, Chad knows we have the
31:03
Speaker 2: numbers that back it up. But I still think there
31:06
Speaker 2: are a lot of guys that they like to see
31:10
Speaker 2: the other side even how the pros do do it.
31:11
Speaker 2: So I do think there is a market for what
31:13
Speaker 2: we do, which is, you know, pick games straight up,
31:16
Speaker 2: which is we talk all the time. It's hard as shit.
31:18
Speaker 2: You want to go and make easy money, go bet
31:21
Speaker 2: player props, right, That's that's an easy market. That's a
31:24
Speaker 2: small market. And you know, if you don't need to
31:27
Speaker 2: get big money down you can bet player markets. But
31:29
Speaker 2: if you want to make real money long term, like
31:32
Speaker 2: Chad just talked about, you got to bet it straight.
31:34
Speaker 2: It's the only way. These guys online posting their five
31:38
Speaker 2: team parlays making a million dollars every week. Only suckers
31:42
Speaker 2: fall for that. Anyone that's in this long enough knows
31:44
Speaker 2: that that's not long term winning. These guys are betting
31:47
Speaker 2: both sides. They're messing with you. It's not real. It's
31:50
Speaker 2: fake tickets. So yeah, it's tough out there, Like people
31:53
Speaker 2: want me to call people out all the time, and
31:54
Speaker 2: it's just like it's a waste. People need to learn.
31:58
Speaker 2: Like all everyone's going through, everyone's been a sucker online
32:01
Speaker 2: At some point the paint picks to someone that's a
32:04
Speaker 2: fraud or thinking this guy who's winning these parlays all
32:07
Speaker 2: week is going to keep hitting them for the rest
32:08
Speaker 2: of the year, where it's like, no, that was the
32:10
Speaker 2: one week this year it's going to hit So Chad's right.
32:12
Speaker 2: It's a weird way the league that the sports betting
32:15
Speaker 2: world has gone. But I saw it coming a mile away.
32:18
Speaker 2: It's everyone used sports but as a get rich quick scheme,
32:21
Speaker 2: and it's just that's the biggest lie they're being sold.
32:23
Speaker 2: It's just simply is not.
32:25
Speaker 1: Well. I never saw it coming. I'll be honest. I
32:29
Speaker 1: feel like I've been pretty pruscient about this business and
32:33
Speaker 1: where it was going, and I thought, like I thought
32:40
Speaker 1: player props would become much much bigger, and they have
32:44
Speaker 1: and I'm a fan of them, and I think that
32:47
Speaker 1: that the transition from fantasy to daily fantasy and the
32:52
Speaker 1: ability to project player performance has been wondrous and fascinating
32:57
Speaker 1: to watch. I did not see sort of the parlay
33:01
Speaker 1: market becoming the lottery ticket that it has become. It's
33:06
Speaker 1: fascinating to see it, and you know, we covered as
33:10
Speaker 1: best we can. But to me, that's the biggest difference
33:13
Speaker 1: in sort of pre PASPA and post PASPA is you know,
33:18
Speaker 1: you're less I am. You're more cynical than I am.
33:22
Speaker 1: So I didn't think people would want to get rich
33:26
Speaker 1: quick in sports betting because it seems impossible to do it.
33:28
Speaker 1: I figured people want to just be good at this
33:30
Speaker 1: because they're enjoying it for watching the sports, and they
33:33
Speaker 1: want to make a little bit of money and feel
33:34
Speaker 1: connected and be the smartest person in the room, all
33:37
Speaker 1: the things that interest me in it. So, yeah, the
33:40
Speaker 1: sgps were a surprise for sure. Can change can happen
33:46
Speaker 1: quickly in the NFL as of today, Simon, what NFL
33:51
Speaker 1: team would you least like to be a fan of?
33:56
Speaker 1: Because their status, their future, their hopes feels least, it
34:04
Speaker 1: feels most hopeless.
34:07
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's hard because that's why we love football, right,
34:10
Speaker 2: is that your team can be changed on one draft. Right.
34:12
Speaker 2: We saw that with Washington. I mean heuse all that
34:15
Speaker 2: with Houston as well. Like you get the quarterback in there,
34:18
Speaker 2: a couple of our pieces fall into place. You can
34:19
Speaker 2: change your organization, and that's what so special about football.
34:24
Speaker 2: But some some organizations can just cannot get it right.
34:26
Speaker 2: It does not matter what they do. Even if they
34:29
Speaker 2: get the guy, they let the guy either a coach
34:31
Speaker 2: or whoever, they let them out of the building. So
34:34
Speaker 2: for me, the team, I don't know what the hell
34:36
Speaker 2: they're going to do going forward. It's the Saints. I
34:40
Speaker 2: really don't know what the Saints are going to do
34:43
Speaker 2: and what their game plan is. You know, maybe they
34:47
Speaker 2: found their head coach. Maybe they found their guy and
34:49
Speaker 2: he can you know, show some things this year and
34:52
Speaker 2: then next year maybe they get their quarterback or whatever.
34:54
Speaker 2: It's just when I really dive into their numbers and
34:56
Speaker 2: their team and how bad they've done in drafts, money management,
34:59
Speaker 2: all it, I just I feel like it's about to
35:02
Speaker 2: be ten fifteen twenty years of just the dark ages
35:04
Speaker 2: right now for the Saints, so they're definitely my number one.
35:08
Speaker 1: I had him on my list. They were the first
35:09
Speaker 1: team I thought of as well, and then I added
35:12
Speaker 1: on my list Brown's, Titans and Raiders Saints for all
35:17
Speaker 1: the reasons you mentioned, I think that the cupboard is
35:20
Speaker 1: kind of bear. They've got huge cap management issues, they
35:25
Speaker 1: have not historically drafted that well Brown's, They've got the
35:30
Speaker 1: d Shawn albatross. They've got ownership that I just don't
35:34
Speaker 1: think is very good. All that savvy reputationally not known
35:39
Speaker 1: as the sharpest knives in the drawer in the NFL community.
35:43
Speaker 1: Now their best player in a generation in Miles Garrett
35:47
Speaker 1: wants out because he sees how bad things are. They
35:50
Speaker 1: have no real hope at quarterback right now unless they
35:54
Speaker 1: can get you know, turn cam Ward into something brilliant.
35:58
Speaker 1: But the Raids on him are not can't miss prospect.
36:02
Speaker 1: The Titans because I think there's a lot of the issues,
36:04
Speaker 1: like they're drafting number one at a time where there
36:07
Speaker 1: isn't a can't miss prospect in a position that can
36:09
Speaker 1: really change the game. And the Raiders not great ownership.
36:14
Speaker 1: Totally bear cupboard just complete utter mismanagement from every level
36:22
Speaker 1: over the past ten years. I would not want to
36:26
Speaker 1: be a fan of that team. All fair want to
36:29
Speaker 1: make extra money daily from your sports betting. Simon knows
36:33
Speaker 1: I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting
36:37
Speaker 1: to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell
36:40
Speaker 1: you about edge boost, the financial platform that pays you
36:43
Speaker 1: cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank
36:48
Speaker 1: account that pays you for every deposit with the edge
36:51
Speaker 1: Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to a half
36:55
Speaker 1: a percent cash back on all your sports book, daily
36:58
Speaker 1: fantasy site and transactions. That's free money back in your
37:03
Speaker 1: pocket for doing what you're already doing. It's a no brainer. Plus,
37:07
Speaker 1: your edge Boost debit card starts with a two hundred
37:09
Speaker 1: and fifty thousand dollars daily limit and will never be
37:12
Speaker 1: declined for gambling activity. They've got built in tools to
37:16
Speaker 1: help you stay responsible, and there are absolutely no hidden
37:20
Speaker 1: fees or minimum required balances, so stop leaving money on
37:25
Speaker 1: the table. Visit edgeboost dot bet to sign up. If
37:28
Speaker 1: you use promo code favorites and deposit twenty five dollars,
37:31
Speaker 1: you'll receive a twenty five deposit mat twenty five dollars
37:35
Speaker 1: deposit match plus Tier two status for faster bank deposits
37:40
Speaker 1: and more cash back. That's Edgeboost dot Bet promo code
37:46
Speaker 1: favorites simon last two questions. We cannot leave the show
37:53
Speaker 1: as members of football covering media without asking this question.
38:01
Speaker 1: Is Aaron Rodgers relevant as a player?
38:05
Speaker 2: If I'm a terrible team that has no option to quarterback?
38:07
Speaker 2: I want to see a guy for a year, I'd
38:09
Speaker 2: bring him in. Why not? He did get better as
38:11
Speaker 2: the season went along. I know that's not saying much
38:14
Speaker 2: to a lot of people, but it's such an ugly
38:17
Speaker 2: gross position chat when we've seen it. I mean, there's
38:19
Speaker 2: just some teams that just have nothing at the position.
38:21
Speaker 2: So yeah, would I rather than him than you know,
38:25
Speaker 2: the thirtieth or you know Marcus Mariotea who I love
38:29
Speaker 2: Marcus mariotte as a backup, but you don't want him
38:31
Speaker 2: as I want of the thirty started thirty two starting quarterbacks.
38:33
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Rogers still has a place in
38:35
Speaker 2: this league. Sure, but it's just hard because we're so
38:38
Speaker 2: used to him being great, and you know a lot
38:41
Speaker 2: of people don't like him because it was all field
38:43
Speaker 2: antics and what he says off field, but just strictly
38:46
Speaker 2: on field, I guess I'd still take them, like, if
38:50
Speaker 2: you have nothing at the position, I'd give him a
38:52
Speaker 2: job just because he does have. These moments are brilliance
38:55
Speaker 2: and he does not a command at offense. But yeah,
38:58
Speaker 2: it's it's just sad times. I mean, you know, this
39:02
Speaker 2: might be it for him this year as a starter
39:04
Speaker 2: of this league.
39:06
Speaker 1: I think he's irrelevant as a player. I think if
39:10
Speaker 1: you don't have an offensive line that is perfect with
39:15
Speaker 1: him as your quarterback, you're destined to be disappointed. I
39:19
Speaker 1: think if you don't have uber talented receivers who can
39:23
Speaker 1: read his mind, you're destined to be disappointed. I think
39:27
Speaker 1: he will come in and change the chemistry of your
39:33
Speaker 1: franchise in a way that you can't expect or understand
39:37
Speaker 1: until he's in the building. I think the only reason
39:40
Speaker 1: he's relevant is because people still like to talk to
39:43
Speaker 1: him and talk about him, because he's always going to
39:46
Speaker 1: give an interesting answer. He's always going to give an
39:49
Speaker 1: answer where he is kind of smirking, kind of thinking
39:52
Speaker 1: he's the smartest guy in the room, kind of think
39:54
Speaker 1: he's getting one over on you. And for those reasons, alone,
39:58
Speaker 1: you're going to want to talk about the guy. Are
40:01
Speaker 1: those football reasons? No, but he's still going to be
40:04
Speaker 1: a guy that has relevance because Aaron Rodgers at the
40:07
Speaker 1: tail end of his career and things haven't been going
40:09
Speaker 1: well and the expectations are always so high. So yeah,
40:14
Speaker 1: he's relevant. Unfortunately. Last question, last question. We started the
40:19
Speaker 1: show talking about inputs for models, offensive line, defensive line, quarterback.
40:26
Speaker 1: What is your least relevant position.
40:32
Speaker 2: In football? Sheesh man, they're all tough.
40:40
Speaker 1: I thought about this a lot. I had two answers.
40:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, I guess, I guess it is
40:48
Speaker 2: because it's kind of going extinct. Would be the fullback.
40:53
Speaker 1: That was my answer.
40:55
Speaker 2: That's a good one. I would say fullback's a good one.
40:58
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think. It's like like I like to
41:00
Speaker 2: make fun of kickers and punters, but they're they're crazy important,
41:04
Speaker 2: Like they're crazy important to the team. If I had
41:09
Speaker 2: to put one down, though, I would say, you could
41:11
Speaker 2: win a game of all the positions. Have the worst
41:14
Speaker 2: player in the entire field. You could win a game
41:17
Speaker 2: if your slot corner, I guess it's just absolutely terrible.
41:20
Speaker 2: Like if there's one position you could get away on
41:22
Speaker 2: the field because everyone else, like, if you're a linebackers awful.
41:25
Speaker 2: If there's a guy in the line that's just the
41:27
Speaker 2: worst player on the team, safety, cornerback, Yeah, I think
41:31
Speaker 2: I think Nichol is the only place you get away
41:32
Speaker 2: with having just an absolute horror because maybe you can
41:35
Speaker 2: just double that guy and you know, yeah, that's really tough. Though,
41:39
Speaker 2: that's tough. Worst the least important position on the field,
41:41
Speaker 2: it's really tough.
41:42
Speaker 1: Well, I think the least important position has to be
41:44
Speaker 1: the position that is basically no longer in existence. How
41:49
Speaker 1: many full backs can you name? Right, there's like three
41:53
Speaker 1: full backs and uh two of them one of them
41:56
Speaker 1: plays for the Ravens and one in place for the
41:58
Speaker 1: Chargers and one in place for the Chiefs. And the
42:00
Speaker 1: fullbacks for the Ravens and the Chargers end up just
42:03
Speaker 1: being guys that the hardballs like to play both ways.
42:06
Speaker 1: And so I think that's got to be the least
42:09
Speaker 1: relevant because they don't even have to be on the field.
42:12
Speaker 1: Their impact is so minimal. I thought punter kicker for
42:16
Speaker 1: less than half a second, because anybody knows kickers, forget
42:21
Speaker 1: about how important they are. Punters. You have two bed
42:24
Speaker 1: punts in a game. It could fuck you. It could
42:26
Speaker 1: change the entire tenor of the game.
42:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, brutal.
42:33
Speaker 1: We're going to do another mail bag. I didn't get
42:35
Speaker 1: to all the questions today. We are going to do
42:36
Speaker 1: another mail bag because they come flying in so we
42:39
Speaker 1: want to get to as many as we can. As
42:42
Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
42:45
Speaker 1: sixty five and now new Bet three six five. Customers
42:48
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when
42:50
Speaker 1: you bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites,
42:53
Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to
42:55
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
42:58
Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
43:01
Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At Bet
43:03
Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in
43:05
Speaker 1: President Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
43:11
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
43:15
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
43:19
Speaker 1: Iowa Terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Don't forget sign up for
43:23
Speaker 1: the Favorites Live event you got RSVP. Joe's on Weed
43:27
Speaker 1: in Chicago, March twenty ninth, Elite eight Saturday. I'm going
43:31
Speaker 1: to be there, Simon's going to be their, Stucky's going
43:33
Speaker 1: to be there. Jim Root from Three Men, We even
43:35
Speaker 1: the Big Bets on Campus podcast is going to be there.
43:37
Speaker 1: We'll do an exclusive show talking about the games that day,
43:41
Speaker 1: plus some hangouts. Those are great events. Joe's on Weed
43:44
Speaker 1: in Chicago RSVP in the link in the episode description.
43:50
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of
43:52
Speaker 1: The Favorites on the Action of Work You two page Thursday,
43:54
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern with special guest Field Yates talking NFL.
44:00
Speaker 1: Download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,
44:04
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
44:06
Speaker 1: a gift. Until next time. I Love You. Action Network
44:17
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you
44:21
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, Help is available twenty
44:24
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler