Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 337 - 8/15/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello, and welcome to episode 337 of the All Systems Go sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
- 0:36Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
- 0:39end. And believe it or not, we're
- 0:41pretty much halfway through the month of August before, you
- 0:43know, it'll be September. We'll have NFL every Sunday,
- 0:46college football every Saturday. We are literally the calm before
- 0:50the storm here at this point. So an exciting time to be
- 0:53getting down in the sports betting market.
- 0:55And I do have a pretty loaded slate for you guys tonight.
- 0:58We got a huge MLB slate, 15 games overall.
- 1:00We got two NFL preseason games here for tonight and I got a 5
- 1:05pack of plays for you, including three MLB plays, one dog, 2
- 1:09favorites, and then also couple plays here in the preseason.
- 1:12I got a play on both sides of the games here tonight, which we
- 1:17mentioned a little bit yesterday.
- 1:18Tennessee, Atlanta, Kansas City, Seattle.
- 1:20One line has really come back down to a side we were leaning
- 1:23on yesterday and then the other angle here is a line that's
- 1:26moving further toward the side we were talking about in
- 1:28yesterday's pod. So a lot of these have some good
- 1:31sharp mush edges and we also have a good overlap in MLB.
- 1:35One play also happens to be a Juice Reel Robo Jackson official
- 1:40best bet pick. So as always guys, we have a
- 1:42three pack. Try to go 2 and one.
- 1:43We got a 5 pack tonight. We're letting it go tonight.
- 1:45We're getting loose getting after it, tying one on as we get
- 1:49ready for a big weekend here. But with five overall plays,
- 1:52let's try to get 3, three out of 5.
- 1:54Eek out a winning day. Now looking back to her last
- 1:57night, bit of a frustrating night. 1 and 2 -, 1.13 units.
- 2:02Had a nice hit with the Detroit, Minnesota under 7 1/2.
- 2:05That thing looked like it was dead on arrival.
- 2:07They had five runs through I think the first 3 innings and
- 2:10then really kind of locked it down and it landed on 7.
- 2:13Went to extra innings, one run got pushed across, landed on 7.
- 2:16So we got the under 7 1/2. But the Mets and the Cubs, man,
- 2:20they both blew late leads for us.
- 2:22The Mets are up three to two in the eighth inning.
- 2:25They bring in Helsley. Of course he he blows it and
- 2:28they lose 4:00 to 3:00. And then what was it with the
- 2:32Cubs? They had a one nothing lead
- 2:34going into the bottom of the eighth inning.
- 2:36And of course Vladimir Guerrero, junior hits a hits a bomb to
- 2:39give him a 2 to one lead and they won the Game 2 to one.
- 2:42And the Cubs, as frustrating as it was, if you watch that game,
- 2:45maybe Guerrero hit the Homer in the 7th.
- 2:47But the 8th inning, I think Cubs had second and third nobody out
- 2:52and they had say Suzuki or no Suzuki walked.
- 2:56Then they had who was it Tucker Kelly?
- 2:58And who was the the third guy? I'm not sure, but they all
- 3:01struck out. So it's like awesome, second and
- 3:03third nobody out. You can't tie the game or take
- 3:06the lead. So hey, that's baseball guys.
- 3:08Sometimes the breaks go your way, sometimes they don't.
- 3:10But either way, we're going to keep grinding.
- 3:12Try to finish off the week on a on a good note here.
- 3:15Now, I do want to mention, as always, keep you guys updated
- 3:18with what's going on with the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
- 3:21We are still number one on Amazon, which makes me very,
- 3:25very happy. And you know what's kind of
- 3:27incredible too is if you look at the top like 20 or basically you
- 3:31know, the top listed best sellers in sports gambling, the
- 3:34NFL Sharp book Sharp betting Playbook is number one.
- 3:37Guess what's #4 the everything guide to sports betting.
- 3:40So two of the top 4IN sports gambling coming from yours truly
- 3:44over here. So pretty excited about that.
- 3:47Again, I want to continue to thank everyone who has
- 3:49pre-ordered or now purchased a copy of the NFL Sharp Betting
- 3:52Playbook. We're getting these five star
- 3:54reviews rolling in, which is fantastic.
- 3:57So it's great to see. And again, let's keep it #1
- 4:00recommend it to a friend, buy it for a buddy or colleague or
- 4:03family member, buy it for yourself.
- 4:05Remember, I'll sign them for you at the book.
- 4:06We'll sweat some games together. But if you would be so kind to
- 4:09give it a five star review and a little blurb, maybe just
- 4:12something in particular you really enjoyed about the book.
- 4:14Like, hey, I never really thought about the contrarian
- 4:17mindset. Now I'm looking to bet against
- 4:18the public or I used to bet a ton of parlays.
- 4:21I read the chapter on why you should avoid parlays.
- 4:23Now I'm seeing the light here, why there's such a handout to
- 4:25the book and why the books promote them or schedule spots
- 4:28or you know, betting systems, windy unders.
- 4:31Now I look at the weather. Whatever the case may be, any
- 4:33little nugget that you enjoyed that again, maybe helped you to
- 4:38get a little bit sharper, throw it in that review section.
- 4:40It would really mean a lot to me guys, but let's keep it at #1
- 4:44With that being said though, as we got a huge slate here for
- 4:47tonight, 5 bets overall, baseball and NFL preseason.
- 4:50Let's waste no more time and get right into it.
- 4:53So I want to start with a little bit of baseball here.
- 4:55First bet on the board for me. 6:45 PM Eastern Time, we got the
- 4:59Phil's visiting the Washington Nationals.
- 5:03Now coming into this one, we have the Nats 49 and 72.
- 5:06Not a great record, but they did win last night's opener 3:00 to
- 5:092:00 as a big plus 160 home dog. The rematch for tonight, the
- 5:13Phills, who are 69 and 52. They're going to go with the Ray
- 5:16ace Zach Wheeler 10 and five 2.68 ERA.
- 5:20You know all the Nats going to go with the southpaw Mackenzie
- 5:23Gore 5 and 12 four point O 9 ERA.
- 5:26So we seen across the market here.
- 5:28Will this game open Philly around a - 170 Rd. favorite and
- 5:32Washington around a + 150 home dog and sharps are saying no,
- 5:36this isn't too high of a line. Yeah, it's a little pricey, but
- 5:39they're laying it with the Phils because we've seen a big steam
- 5:42move on Philadelphia rising up from -170 up to -190 now.
- 5:48I jumped on Philly at -185 at Bet MGM should still be
- 5:51available -185 but again, a lot of books at -190 even -195 I
- 5:57really like the splits on the Phils.
- 5:59If you look out at DraftKings, 85% of bets, nearly 90% of the
- 6:03money is on Philadelphia, but in particular out at Circa in
- 6:07Vegas, 82% of money line bets, 99% of money line dollars.
- 6:12So a good pro and Joe Low bets, higher dollar split at
- 6:15DraftKings, but in particular at Circa, which caters to sharp
- 6:19betters and doesn't turn their action away, which I respect
- 6:21them for. Then we look at some betting
- 6:23systems here. Couple that jumped out to me,
- 6:26the Phillies are 31 and 1962%, 9% ROI off a loss this year.
- 6:33So they lose. They bounce back pretty much win
- 6:352/3 of the time. That makes them the 9th best
- 6:39bounce back team in baseball. Philly is also 39 and 1474
- 6:44percent, 14% ROI as a favorite with a line move in their
- 6:48direction. And that actually makes them the
- 6:50third best chalk team with a line move in baseball.
- 6:53So this spot of awful loss in a favorite with a line move, both
- 6:56have been profitable here for Philly.
- 6:58Now going to bank on the Philly bats here, hopefully to get to
- 7:01Gore and hopefully Wheeler can pitch a gem for us, which he's
- 7:04done much of the year. But you look at Phillies bats,
- 7:08they're hitting on the season. Two 53143 home runs, 558 runs
- 7:13scored. Nats only hitting two, 44116
- 7:17homers, 518 runs scored. Phillies also have some
- 7:21correlative betting here. Became a even bigger favorite
- 7:24with a low total of 8. Some books juiced 8 under -115
- 7:28so fair amount of expected run score.
- 7:30More likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
- 7:33Now, a lot of stats here will tell you Wheeler's a great
- 7:35pitcher, which he is. But if you look at Gore, I'm a
- 7:38high on Gore. He's a good lefty.
- 7:40He was part of that big trade with the Padres for Soto a few
- 7:43years back. But he does have an ERA of eight
- 7:46in the month of August and two starts.
- 7:48And at home he's only two and six with an ERA of 4.8.
- 7:52And the Phillies are, by the way, hitting 250 against lefties
- 7:55this year. That's the 10th best in
- 7:57baseball. So they've kind of done well
- 7:58against southpaws. Then just classic home Rd.
- 8:01Phillies. Nothing crazy, but they are
- 8:03above 532 and 31 on the road. Nationals, meanwhile, 23 and 36
- 8:08at home. One of the worst home teams in
- 8:10baseball. So coming off a loss favorite
- 8:12with a line move, good splits, better bats, hopefully the
- 8:15better pitcher on the bump against a team that struggled at
- 8:18home. I'm laying it with the Phil's
- 8:19guys. I got Philadelphia -185 at Bet
- 8:22MGM again. Shop around, A lot of books
- 8:24around -190 next one for you. 8:15 PM Eastern Time.
- 8:29Let's go out to Saint Louis where the Cardinals are hosting
- 8:32the New York Yankees. The Yankees come in 64 and 57.
- 8:37Just took two or three against the Twins.
- 8:39Couldn't get the sweep, though. They lost that series finale 4
- 8:41to 1 as a -150 home favorite. You know, the Cardinals 61 and
- 8:4661. They just lost two or three
- 8:48against the Rockies at home. Man, that's pretty bad.
- 8:51And the finale, there's losers 6 to 5 and they're a -, 245 home
- 8:56favorite. Now, the pitching match up for
- 8:58tonight, the Yankees are going to go with Luis Heel, who's
- 9:01Owen? One 7.27 ERA.
- 9:03He just came back from the disabled list.
- 9:05He was out much of the first half and through the All Star
- 9:08break, you know all the cards are going to go with the fellow
- 9:10ready Andre Palante or Palante 6 and nine 4.95 ERA.
- 9:15So what we've seen for this interleague matchup, well, the
- 9:18Yankees open this game around a -. 125 Rd. favorite Saint Louis
- 9:22around a + 105 home dog. And this line has moved further
- 9:25toward New York. Yankees have now gotten steamed
- 9:28up -125 up to -135 I jumped on Yankees -134 again, most shops
- 9:35-135 -, 137 Aside from this line move, 10 cent steam on the road
- 9:40favorite Yankees. Some good splits on New York.
- 9:43They're getting 72% of money line bets, 73% of money line
- 9:47dollars at Circa, 71% of bets, 98% of dollars.
- 9:52So that split at circa, again, very notable low bets, higher
- 9:55dollars. And for in favor of the Yankees,
- 9:58we have some system matches lighting up on New York.
- 10:01Both teams coming off a loss, take the team getting $0.10 of
- 10:04line movement or more. That system is 48 and 2962
- 10:08percent, 8% ROI this year. If you're a road favorite off a
- 10:12loss getting $0.10 of steam or more, those teams are 65 and
- 10:163664% with an 8% ROI. And if you're a rested favorite,
- 10:22coming off a day off 88 and 3969 percent, 10% ROI.
- 10:28Yankees do have the better bats overall hitting 191 or they have
- 10:31hit, I should say, 191 home runs, 612 runs scored.
- 10:36Saint Louis, 115 homers, 526 runs scored.
- 10:41Yankees would have that interleague system, betting
- 10:44system value with the lack of familiarity benefiting, quote UN
- 10:48quote the better team. He'll was roughed up a little
- 10:51bit in his debut. And I think this is his third
- 10:53start. Second start, he pitched a lot
- 10:55better, but Palante or Palant, 10.8 O ERA in two August starts,
- 11:00he's giving up eight runs and 6.2 innings pitched.
- 11:03So I'm going to follow this move here toward the Yankees.
- 11:07Hopefully they can get a win here on the road.
- 11:08But we got line movement. We got a lot of good systems
- 11:11lighting up on New York. So I'm going to back the Bronx
- 11:13Bombers in this one. I got the Yankees at -134 at
- 11:17FanDuel, last bed of the night, 10:15 PM Eastern Time, first
- 11:22pitch, the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the San Francisco G
- 11:25men. Now the Rays come in 59 and 63
- 11:28on the year, just took two or three against the A's.
- 11:31They won that serious finale. Remember we had them the other
- 11:33night 8 to 2 as a -150 Rd. favorite.
- 11:36On the other hand, the G men, man they are really struggling.
- 11:3959 and 62 on the year, just got swept by the Padres.
- 11:43They lost that series finale 11 to one as a + 120 home dog.
- 11:48So for tonight's interleague series opener, the Rays are
- 11:51sending out the righty Joe Boyle.
- 11:53He's one and two 3.82 ERA. Meanwhile, the G Men are going
- 11:57to go with fellow righty Landon Roop.
- 11:58He's seven and six 3.11 ERA. What have we seen across the
- 12:02market here? Well, the G Men opened as around
- 12:06a -, 135 home favorite. Tampa Bay around a + 115 Rd.
- 12:10dog. And the public is leaning
- 12:12slightly toward San Fran at DraftKings are getting 56% of
- 12:16money line bets. But even though they're getting
- 12:17a majority of tickets, the line didn't move further up towards
- 12:20San Fran, up to like -140 no, it's actually started to fall.
- 12:24So even though majority of bets are on the giants, the giants
- 12:27have fallen -135 down to around -130 some shops even now down to
- 12:32around -125 So I was notable to me tells me the line falling
- 12:36away from San Fran simultaneously going toward the
- 12:39Rays, who opened around plus 115.
- 12:41Now they're down to around plus 110.
- 12:44Some shops even down to plus one O 5.
- 12:46That tells me we've got some reverse line movement coming in
- 12:48on the raise. If you look at the splits, they
- 12:50look good on Tampa at DraftKings 44% of bets 60% of dollars on
- 12:56Tampa and at circa get a load of this 60% of money line bets
- 13:00nearly 80% of money line dollars on Tampa.
- 13:04So both books are showing a low bets higher dollar split on the
- 13:07raise. Little nugget here, if you look
- 13:09at short dogs plus 120 or less with the line move in their
- 13:13favor since August 1st, those teams are 26 and 1958 percent,
- 13:1819% ROI. So that's been a good spot and
- 13:21that does match here with Tampa Bay.
- 13:24Tampa Bay does have the better offense.
- 13:25They've hit 251 on the season, 136 homers, 546 runs scored.
- 13:31San Fran's only hitting two, 32113 home runs, 491 runs
- 13:36scored. Rays are also we got 2 righties
- 13:39on the bump. They're hitting 261 against
- 13:41righties. That's the second best in
- 13:43baseball. Giants only hitting 240 against
- 13:45righties that ranks 24th. And the giants man, I I really
- 13:49bashed the Red Sox when they got rid of Devers, but it's pretty
- 13:52clear Red Sox I've gotten the better of that deal.
- 13:55We have the the giants only 7 and 17 since the All Star break.
- 14:00I think I don't have the number in front of me.
- 14:02They're like 18 and 30 since getting Devers.
- 14:05So I want to back the G men or sorry, I want to bet against the
- 14:07G men. I want to back Tampa Bay in this
- 14:09spot with some good line movement, good bet splits and
- 14:13also a little cherry on top pop open juice reel. 2 notable
- 14:17things jumped out to me. One Tampa Bay has a 29% sharp
- 14:21mush edge, telling us the sharper betters who have
- 14:23downloaded juice reel are also going Tampa.
- 14:26And then I also go to the robo Jackson best bet pics.
- 14:29There's two of them that come out at noon every single day.
- 14:32One of the two is on Tampa Bay, so add it all up here, guys.
- 14:36I'm back in the Rays in the Spock and I continue to bet
- 14:38against the Giants. I got Tampa Bay plus 1/12 at
- 14:42FanDuel again, shop around a lot of books now plus 110 even plus
- 14:46105, South Philly, New York and Tampa Bay.
- 14:49Can we find a way to get two out of three?
- 14:52That is the goal. Now over to some preseason NFL.
- 14:56Now we touched on these games a little bit yesterday because for
- 15:00some reason I, you know, woke up and thought these were Thursday
- 15:03night games, but I was wrong. But I'm kind of glad we
- 15:05mentioned it because we've seen further movement toward the two
- 15:08sides that we talked about South looking at the first game here,
- 15:137:00 PM Eastern Time Tennessee Titans visiting the Atlanta
- 15:16Falcons. We have the Titans who are Owen
- 15:19one lost their series preseason opener to the Bucs 29 to 7 and
- 15:25they lost out right as a 3 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
- 15:28You know the Falcons Owen one they lost to the lion 17 to 10
- 15:33and their opener. But remember, that game was
- 15:35postponed or cancelled early because of a really scary injury
- 15:39to one of the the Titans or the the Detroit Lions guys.
- 15:43So if you had, I took Atlanta on the points there and luckily
- 15:46that was avoided bet instead of a loss.
- 15:48But anyway, for tonight's preseason matchup, the Titans
- 15:51open as a 3 1/2 point Rd. favorite and we initially saw
- 15:56Tennessee get steamed up all the way to -5 1/2.
- 16:00Now, once it got to 5 1/2, that's when we started to see a
- 16:03lot of sharp buyback on Atlanta plus 5 1/2, bringing that line
- 16:06down to 5, four and a half. I woke up today, it's down to 3
- 16:101/2, even 3. So I'm going to default to or
- 16:14kind of leave it up to you guys, what you want to do with this
- 16:16one? Because I did get plus 5 1/2
- 16:19with Atlanta. I put it in the Juice Reel app.
- 16:21If you're able to jump on it now that it's down to three, I mean,
- 16:25you can still find plus 3 1/2 at FanDuel.
- 16:27It's around -120 but I'm going to leave it up to you guys
- 16:30whether you feel like hey, you know, missed the good number,
- 16:33might as well layoff or you still want to play it.
- 16:35I think if you can get the hook on the 3 1/2, I still might fire
- 16:38on this one, but I'll give you a couple reasons to maybe still
- 16:41like it. Pre season dogs 3 1/2 or more.
- 16:44Again, you can still get the hook at FanDuel.
- 16:46They're 19 and 9 against the spread. 68 percent, 30% ROI
- 16:51after or since the last two pre seasons.
- 16:53And we've also seen dogs absolutely just crush it so far.
- 16:58Dogs are 12 and five against the spread, 71% for the preseason
- 17:03thus far. And if you look at kind of the
- 17:06reason why we saw this line jump to Tennessee, it's because Brian
- 17:09Callahan, coach of the Titans, came out and said, quote,
- 17:12everyone is going to play similar to last week.
- 17:14So Cam Ward expected to play about two series.
- 17:18But I would almost kind of want to buy low on the Falcons here
- 17:21anyway. They're not going to have
- 17:22Michael Pennix Junior or Kirk Cousins, but Easton Stick and
- 17:25Emery Jones will get the most most of the playing time.
- 17:28And Easton Stick, he's kind of a preseason hero here and he
- 17:31played well in that first game. So again, maybe you got the five
- 17:35and a half like me and you're feeling great.
- 17:37The fact this is down to 3 1/2 or three, if you feel like the
- 17:39value is gone and that's a legitimate, you know, opinion,
- 17:43that's OK. You can lay off.
- 17:45If you do want to sweat it, I'd still lean it.
- 17:47Atlanta here with the hook if you can get it at FanDuel plus 3
- 17:501/2 last bet of the night Kansas City at Seattle 10:00 Eastern
- 17:56Time. We got a late night sweat on the
- 17:57West Coast chiefs are O and one they lost to the Cardinals 20 to
- 18:0117 as a 2 1/2 point favorite on the road in week one of the
- 18:06preseason Seahawks. Meanwhile, OO and one they tied
- 18:09the Raiders 2323. Yes, you can end in a tie.
- 18:13These games don't go to overtime, but they covered as a
- 18:165 1/2 point home dog against the Raiders.
- 18:19Now big line movement away from Kansas City towards Seattle.
- 18:22Here Kansas City opened -2 1/2 on the road.
- 18:25We've now flipped to Seattle -2 1/2 - 3.
- 18:29But now I'm looking at this line.
- 18:30It looks like it's creeping up to -4 so the line is moving
- 18:33further towards Seattle. The splits look pretty good on
- 18:37the Seahawks. Only about half the tickets, but
- 18:3975% of spread dollars are going on Seattle.
- 18:43Now. I want to back this move towards
- 18:45Seattle. I think they have the better
- 18:47quarterback group here. Obviously Sam Darnold is
- 18:49expected to play. You heard Mike McDonald, the
- 18:51coach of Seattle, say, quote, our guys are going to start the
- 18:54game. I think it's the best thing for
- 18:56us. I'm going, I'm looking forward
- 18:57to seeing our team RIP it tonight.
- 19:00So they have Darnold who will start and then you have Drew
- 19:03Lock and Jalen Milro. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Andy
- 19:05Reid, he's been kind of coy here.
- 19:08He said, quote, I'm still figuring out who's going to play
- 19:11and not play. There's a chance I sit a couple
- 19:13of starters or at least be short with them.
- 19:14We want to make sure we get a good look at these young guys.
- 19:18I think also you got to look at not just the dog to fave line
- 19:21move towards Seattle and the line going towards Seattle, but
- 19:24kind of the motivation for these teams.
- 19:26You know, Kansas City does. Does pre season mean much to
- 19:29you? No, you're in the Super Bowl
- 19:30pretty much every year. You have bigger dreams than
- 19:33winning a pre season game. Seattle, you're at home.
- 19:36Second year coach, you're trying to build a culture under Mike
- 19:39McDonald kind of means more to to Seattle than it does to
- 19:42Kansas City. And you also look at the weather
- 19:46in this spot. I know overs killed it.
- 19:49Overs so far in the preseason, unbelievable.
- 19:52They're 14 and 3. Little Nugget.
- 19:55If you had bet every dog and every over so far in week 1 or
- 19:58through entering week two of the preseason, you're up nearly
- 20:01$1600. That's how good these, you know,
- 20:04these dogs and these overs have been.
- 20:07But I always like to money line short favorites.
- 20:10So if you want to play Seattle with me, my angle is Seattle on
- 20:13the money line because let's say they win by three.
- 20:17Let's say they, you know, win by 1-2 or three or less, win by 4
- 20:22and push. I want to be with the line move
- 20:24towards Seattle and the bet splits and the information based
- 20:27bet where they're going to play their guys in Kansas City may
- 20:29not, but I don't want to lay the worst of it.
- 20:31Now you could argue I'm laying the worst of the money line, but
- 20:34the difference here is that if the Seahawks win the game by
- 20:37three or less, you lose your spread bet or push or pretty
- 20:42much lose. A lot of these books are at 4.
- 20:43Now versus money line. You're laying a bigger price,
- 20:46but you're still winning the game.
- 20:48So I jumped on Seattle -155 at at DraftKings and I did notice a
- 20:537% sharp mush edge in Juice Reel in favor of Seattle.
- 20:58So I'm going with the Falcons to cover.
- 21:00I got plus 5 1/2. You can still get a 3 1/2 now if
- 21:03you want to play it. And I got Seattle to win the
- 21:05damn game on the money line -155 at DraftKings.
- 21:10So that about does it for episode 337 of the All Systems
- 21:13Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 21:16This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
- 21:18And I start first by saying thank you.
- 21:20Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
- 21:22busy lives. It's the dog days of summer.
- 21:25If you have nieces, nephews, kids, you know, schools right
- 21:28around the corner. So it's starting to get busy
- 21:29here, but the fact that you guys continue to TuneIn listen to the
- 21:33breakdowns of me sweat sharp contrarian plays together, it
- 21:36really means a lot. So thank you for listening.
- 21:39If you do enjoy the pod and you want to help me grow this
- 21:42podcast and reach more recreational betters to kind of
- 21:46hope hopefully show them the data-driven approach, then
- 21:49please could you give this podcast a five star review on
- 21:51Spotify or iTunes? If you want to leave a nice
- 21:54comment or click the follow button or recommend the pod to a
- 21:57friend or colleague, I would also very much appreciate that.
- 22:01Next, if you enjoy this style of betting, data-driven, sharp,
- 22:05contrarian betting based betting based on what the market, the
- 22:08lines, the NUM, the numbers, the money is telling us the bet
- 22:11splits, the system matches. This style of betting has kind
- 22:14of appealed to you. You kind of see the value in it.
- 22:17You know you're never going to be perfect.
- 22:19We're trying to grind out and beat the magic number of 52.38%
- 22:23assuming -110 juice. And you maybe you want to learn
- 22:26more about data-driven betting or you just want to support the
- 22:29team. Let me know you appreciate the
- 22:30insights. Or maybe you have a buddy or
- 22:33friend or someone you know who loves betting and loses a lot
- 22:37and just parlays and doesn't even look at line movement.
- 22:40Maybe you want to buy one of my books for them.
- 22:42So if you wanted to go to Amazon.com and type in the
- 22:45Everything Guide to Sports Betting or the NFL Sharp Betting
- 22:48Playbook, pick up a copy of one or the other or both, which is
- 22:52awesome. And let's keep the the
- 22:54Everything Guide at #4 or better.
- 22:57And let's keep the The NFL Sharp Betting playbook #1 and I really
- 23:02owe it all to you guys for enjoying it, buying it again.
- 23:05Give it a five star review and a nice little review that would
- 23:07mean a lot to me. But if you want to pick up one
- 23:10or both of my books, again, the Everything Guide to Sports
- 23:13Betting, the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook, bring them to the
- 23:15sports book. I'll sign them for you.
- 23:17I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
- 23:19And we'll sweat some games together because we got a lot of
- 23:21games to sweat tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
- 23:25and Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
- 23:27apps. Rhythm does a great job of
- 23:29powering this podcast. My announcement will be coming I
- 23:32think Monday. In terms of what we got cooking
- 23:35for Rhythm this football season, I think you're going to be
- 23:36excited. Rhythm great for their AI backed
- 23:39models and predictions for game bets and player props.
- 23:42Obviously you got MLB and WNBA right now, but college football
- 23:45is now live in the Rhythm app. So go download Rhythm and also
- 23:49go download Juice Reel if you enjoy this pod.
- 23:52I'm going to pass the tip jar tip your podcast host in the
- 23:55form of signing up to get the all systems go official best bet
- 23:58packs, best bet picks on the juice reel app.
- 24:01As soon as I place a bet they get synced up to my account.
- 24:05They get sent the juice reel and you can play them, tail them,
- 24:08fade them, do whatever you want. But if you want to support the
- 24:10pod, it cost $4.99 a week, 5 bucks to get a week's worth of
- 24:16plays. So you can follow them from the
- 24:19buy sell tab, bottom right corner of the Juice reel Juice
- 24:23Reel app. And then you can just search ASG
- 24:25under score podcast or I tweet the link out every afternoon and
- 24:28go straight to there. But you're also going to get the
- 24:30robo Jackson best bet pics, the sharp mush indicators, the
- 24:33arbitrage plays the shop for the best sign futures, sync up your
- 24:36books, get a running report card of your action, all available
- 24:39when you download Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel, download
- 24:42rhythm. You'll be off and running making
- 24:44sharp bets, which is always the goal.
- 24:47Next, do you have a live odds page?
- 24:49If you don't, you need one. And again, maybe you have one,
- 24:53but it's really expensive. It's 405 hundred, 600 bucks a
- 24:56month. Or maybe you use a free one, but
- 24:59it's delayed, it's slow, it doesn't have a lot of good
- 25:01books. You don't know where the date is
- 25:02coming from, It's unreliable. Or maybe you have no idea what a
- 25:05live odds page is. That's OK.
- 25:07But let me tell you, you need a live odds page.
- 25:09I would argue it's the single most important website you're
- 25:12going to use when you're betting on sports because you got to
- 25:14have access to track the market. And that's what the live odds
- 25:18page does. It gives you all the games, the
- 25:20start times, the live scoring, the live in game wagering odds
- 25:23always like having my sweats up and you know, whether it's on
- 25:26the TV or my tablet and then have the the odds logic live
- 25:30odds page up to kind of see how the live lines are working.
- 25:33But also it really does a good job of allowing you to shop for
- 25:36the best number, find the best price, got the opening column,
- 25:39the current numbers. You can kind of see which
- 25:41direction the line is moved very easily.
- 25:43You can identify steam, you got pop up notifications for
- 25:47injuries and final scores. So the odds logic live odds
- 25:51page, it's the best around and you guys should give it a shot,
- 25:53especially getting into football season because you want to be
- 25:56able to kind of know how it works once we get football
- 25:59returning. So if you want to give it a
- 26:01shot, here is a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month.
- 26:05Just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
- 26:11So that about does it for episode 337 of the ASG Pod on a
- 26:14big Friday. As always guys, two final
- 26:16thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
- 26:19in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
- 26:21Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut at the
- 26:24Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield or
- 26:28the Nash. In my neck of the woods outside
- 26:30of Boston, close to the New Hampshire border or out in the
- 26:33desert where the true grinders get down.
- 26:35Where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
- 26:37Where the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
- 26:40Sweat and sharp contrarian plays.
- 26:42Jumping in the stadium swim pool.
- 26:43When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
- 26:46you're going to walk up to me. Mets and Cubs, you're dead to
- 26:49me. Both blowing late leads.
- 26:50Annoying, but show me a Detroit, Minnesota under 7 1/2.
- 26:54It's nice to get that under. First one's on me, next one's on
- 26:57you, and we'll sweat baseball and football together tonight.
- 27:01So that about does it, guys. As always, 1 and 2, two and one,
- 27:04three and OO and three. Hot, cold, whether we're
- 27:07somewhere in the middle grinding whenever as good as we think
- 27:09when we're when we're red hot, whenever as bad as we think when
- 27:12we're ice cold. We just got to stick to the
- 27:14model in the blueprints, take discipline with our bankroll
- 27:16management and make data-driven bets of our head and not our
- 27:19heart. And by now maybe you know, but
- 27:21if you don't, that's OK to the ultimate, even though it's
- 27:24complex, it kind of gets boiled down to this.
- 27:26Looking for games that are against the public with the
- 27:28house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
- 27:33If we can do that, and I'm pretty confident we can, then
- 27:36we're going to be successful sports betters.
- 27:38So hope everyone has a great weekend.
- 27:39Reminder, no podcast on the weekend, but you can check out
- 27:43the all systems go best bet pics from the Juice reel app.
- 27:46You can also read the sharp reports that are rate for
- 27:48visa.com that I'll tweet out from my Twitter account at Josh
- 27:52under score insights if you want to give me a follow up.
- 27:55But good luck, everybody. Hope you have a great Friday and
- 27:57an even better weekend. I'll see you back on Monday for
- 28:00episode 338 of the all systems go sports betting podcast
- 28:04powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and I'll see
- 28:07you soon.