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What role will Iran play in the future of the Middle East · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: One major player in the region we did not see
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  Speaker 1: at those peace talks in Egypt was Iran. And that's
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  Speaker 1: because for decades, the Islamic Republic has supplied Hamas with weapons, training, money,
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  Speaker 1: and intelligence. Even though HAMAS is greatly diminished now, there
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  Speaker 1: are already rapports that its grip on Gaza is still there,
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  Speaker 1: carrying out public executions and defying the international community. And
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  Speaker 1: even while speaking in Israel during yesterday's historic deal, President
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  Speaker 1: Trump once again focused on Iran, saying that they're tired
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  Speaker 1: of war and they too should come to the table
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  Speaker 1: when they're ready for a deal.
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  Speaker 2: There's nothing that would do more good for this part
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  Speaker 2: of the world than for Iran's leaders to renounce terror,
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  Speaker 2: stop threatening their neighbors, quit funding their militant proxies, and
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  Speaker 2: finally recognize Israel's right to existence after the and to Iran.
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  Speaker 2: And as you know, this is not said out of weakness.
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  Speaker 2: There's no weakness. But I'm going to say this that
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  Speaker 2: we are ready when you are, and it will be
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  Speaker 2: the best decision that Iran has ever made, and it's
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  Speaker 2: going to happen. It's gonna happen.
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  Speaker 1: Well, my next guest supports the notion that for the
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  Speaker 1: first time in nearly four decades, Iran could be on
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  Speaker 1: the cusp of a change of leadership, and that would
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  Speaker 1: clearly change the game for Hamas in the Middle East. Adashzizi,
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  Speaker 1: as a contributing writer for The Atlantic and a lecturer
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  Speaker 1: at Yale University, adas is great to have you back.
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  Speaker 3: It's great to be with you.
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  Speaker 1: So this cease fire means Hamas has agreed to completely disarm,
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  Speaker 1: but as we are already seeing, it hasn't. Do you
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  Speaker 1: think Iran will continue to support Hamas even though phase
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  Speaker 1: two of this deal requires it to lay down arms.
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  Speaker 3: I think Iran is very much weekend in what it
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  Speaker 3: can do. I think it won't give up its ambition
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  Speaker 3: to support Hamas. You know, the netfolks that is there,
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  Speaker 3: they're there, They're they're going to continue to be there.
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  Speaker 3: But the influence of Turkey, Katar and Egypt on Hamas
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  Speaker 3: will be simply a lot more. And you know, support
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  Speaker 3: for Hamas was part of this whole access of resistance
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  Speaker 3: that has really collapsed in many ways, and Iran has
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  Speaker 3: its own fans to worry about. So I think basically Iran,
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  Speaker 3: Iran's opportunity to be a spoiler at whatever peace process
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  Speaker 3: is happening, it's going to be very little. But if
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  Speaker 3: this process fails for you know, for other reasons, then
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  Speaker 3: Iran will be able to play its role and medal.
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  Speaker 3: But it cannot be like it was in the nineties
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  Speaker 3: in some ways and in early two thousands. It cannot
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  Speaker 3: really be a spoiler actor anymore. It's too weak for that.
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  Speaker 1: Now, right and times have clearly changed, especially after you know,
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  Speaker 1: Trump sent in those B two bombers. You know, President
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  Speaker 1: Trump says that he gave Hamas approval for a quote
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  Speaker 1: period of time to serve as this security force in
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  Speaker 1: Gaza during the ceasefire agreement. Clearly Hamas is not policing
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  Speaker 1: here or secure, but rather as certain control. Do you
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  Speaker 1: really see all this, see this deal being successful and
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  Speaker 1: Hamas truly laying down arms, It's.
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  Speaker 3: Going to be very difficult. Hamas's entire ideology is about
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  Speaker 3: having arms, and this phase two is going to be
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  Speaker 3: very difficult. It's very dangerous. If Hamas does something, you know,
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  Speaker 3: Israel will need the slightest of excuse to go back
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  Speaker 3: in there and take drastic action of the forces. Fire
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  Speaker 3: to basically collapse. But I think what we're going to see,
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  Speaker 3: is that a status coo in which Hamas sort of
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  Speaker 3: has a semi control over the areas and Israel is
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  Speaker 3: not really renewing hostilities to last for quite some time.
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  Speaker 3: I do think the trio of countries that I mentioned, Turkey,
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  Speaker 3: Egypt and Katar will be able to hold Hamas back
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  Speaker 3: for a while until we can stumble toward you know,
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  Speaker 3: sort of the next phase that would be some sort
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  Speaker 3: of a Palestinian administration, you know, some sort of international
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  Speaker 3: administration that the rebuilding can go on and all the
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  Speaker 3: rest of it. But I think for the foresee the
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  Speaker 3: future for the in the next few months, we're gonna
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  Speaker 3: sort of bubble around. And you should remember Israel goes
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  Speaker 3: to elections at some point, which will be an important
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  Speaker 3: sort of turning point. And look, there are Hamas has
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  Speaker 3: always been a organization that has different things. It is
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  Speaker 3: possible to imagine a situation in which they'll become sort
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  Speaker 3: of a sort of part of some sort of a
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  Speaker 3: you know, part of some sort of force that is
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  Speaker 3: more limited to policing and that has you know that
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  Speaker 3: they leave governing to this broader Palestinian Arab and international force.
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  Speaker 3: But it's going to be tough getting there.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the image of yesterday, all those world
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  Speaker 1: leaders from twenty different countries right there standing up with
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  Speaker 1: Trump in Egypt with that piece twenty twenty five structure
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  Speaker 1: in front of all of them. Do you think seeing
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  Speaker 1: all those leaders standing by Trump like that well in
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  Speaker 1: any way in fluence Iran or even scare Ron.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, you know, it was a bit of a
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  Speaker 3: photo op, which President Trump's love, and there has been
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  Speaker 3: many before. But if the photo up here is represents something,
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  Speaker 3: and yes, Iran, as you know, didn't go. There was
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  Speaker 3: a huge debate on Sunday when the news came to
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  Speaker 3: Iran had been invited. A massive debate broke out in Iran.
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  Speaker 3: Many diplomats, many former top diplomats, top political figures I'm
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  Speaker 3: called on to go to charmoonche They criticized him when
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  Speaker 3: he declared he wasn't going. And you know that debate
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  Speaker 3: sort of continues. But the photo op represents something, and
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  Speaker 3: that's Iran's isolation.
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  Speaker 1: As we were getting into this segment with you, I
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  Speaker 1: used that part of Trump saying that the US is
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  Speaker 1: ready for a deal, when when Tehran is so what
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  Speaker 1: kind of deal are we talking? About here. What does
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  Speaker 1: that deal need to look like.
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  Speaker 3: Look, Iran needs to give up its anti American, anti
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  Speaker 3: Israeli foolish charade. The game is up. It finished, so
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  Speaker 3: Iran in one word, Kira needs to give up death
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  Speaker 3: to America, and it said focus on long live Iran,
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  Speaker 3: focus on itself. This is the world in which countries
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  Speaker 3: are standing for themselves. And Iran, you know, like Indonesia,
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  Speaker 3: like Pakistan, lak Azabaijah and all these other countries we
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  Speaker 3: were at the summit, needs to focus on its own interests.
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  Speaker 3: And its own interests are its own economic development, equal
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  Speaker 3: relationships sort of with its neighbors in the region, and
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  Speaker 3: giving up this revision it's revolutionary charade that it has
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  Speaker 3: followed for decades.
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  Speaker 1: Ash is easy, always great to have a conversation with you.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you, thank you so much for having me here.