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College Football Playoff Predictions: Is The SEC Going To Get Shut Out? · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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Welcome to buck Eyes tomorrow morning for Sunday, December third. I'm your host,
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tom Or. The game against Michigan is in three hundred and sixty three
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days and a little later on today we will find out who and where Ohio
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State will play its next football game. But we're recording this about seven thirty
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PM on Saturday night. I said to my good buddy Tony Gerderman, TONI
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certainly, once the SEC game is done, we'll have a pretty good chance
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to, you know, reset things. We'll know where everyone's headed at that
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point. You know, Michigan will win, Florida State, you know the
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winner, they won't win, and you'll kind of have like, well,
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here's one thing, it'll happen, and if that doesn't happen, then they'll
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be the other one. It's fine, and we'll have a very good sense
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for where everyone's headed, including Ohio State who they might play in their bowl
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game. Tony, I know somewhere you probably have like volumes one through six
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of things I've been extremely wrong about over the years. You can put the
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previous paragraph or so in that, cause it is seven thirty The SEC game
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is final. Alabama has beaten Georgia, and Tony, why don't you go
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ahead and tell the audience exactly what's going to happen for the last two games
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tonight and how that's going to impact the college football playoff field that's going to
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be announced in about sixteen hours. Go, No, I don't think I'm
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gonna do that, tom I am going to watch the games and with every
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single incompletion, be like, I wonder if that pushes this team out?
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And then now this means Ohio State is going here? This is this is
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pretty crazy in terms of not knowing. Obviously, Ohio State is essentially out
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of the playoffs. Ohio State is out of the playoffs. We can say
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that, but we don't know who's in. And it's seven thirty nine on
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Saturday night, and there are going to be some very very upset coaches fan
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bases. Twitter is going to be incredible on Sunday. Yeah, the playoff
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field gets announced at noon on Sunday, and I don't know where I'm going
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to be, but it is going to be in front of a TV,
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watching very closely and getting ready to watch Twitter meltdown in real time, because
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oh boy, let's just we're going to get to who Ohio State might play,
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and where I think the only thing I can say with a decent amount
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of confidence is it will not be the place where we have already booked our
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plane tickets to go watch Ohio State play their bowl game. We have tickets
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to go down to Sunny South, Florida to the Orange Bowl. That seemed
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for all the world like the most likely scenario. Now that scenario probably involves
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one to two significant upsets in the evening games tonight, and maybe even more
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than that. So let's, I guess, start with the playoff field,
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and I think there are six teams. As you said, I think Ohio
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State, it's safe to say, probably not in the playoff picture at this
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point. So let's just run through the six teams and you can tell me
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if you disagree with any of my assessments here. Okay, University of Washington
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Pac twelve champions just beat Oregon for the second time this season. Washington is
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in the college football playoff field, period, full stop. Any disagreement,
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Nope, no disagreement at all. Okay, good, that is probably the
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last definite answer that we have. Okay, Next up, the University of
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Michigan. Wolverine's always a concern of this podcast and the audience for this podcast.
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If they beat the University of Iowahawk Eyes on Saturday night in Indianapolis,
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they are in period, full stop. If they lose, well, it
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gets a lot messier and there is definitely a scenario where they get left out.
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Any questions or disagreements with that, Nope. I think the only concern
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is if they win, who is number one? Them or Washington. Yeah,
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I think that's fair and at that point, yeah, I mean,
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that's that's going to be the least of the playoff Committee's concerns. I think
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they might just kind of go, yeah, I don't know, it doesn't
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matter you, and then they're gonna spend the rest of the time arguing about
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three four, five six in this scenario. Okay, Number three, the
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Big Twelve champion Texas Longhorns. I have them in as probably in they're the
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Big twelve champions, they are twelve and one. They have a head to
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head win over the SEC champion Alabama Crimson Tide. I think it would be
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difficult for the but not impossible, for the committee to leave them out at
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this point. Your thoughts, Yeah, I think you could put them under
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they should be in. They've done everything they needed to to get in.
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We've seen plenty of one loss conference champs get into the playoff field, and
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they have their conference championship. They've beaten Oklahoma, they have. I believe
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they've beaten Oklahoma. Even if they haven't, it doesn't matter. They lost
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to Oklahoma, they lost the Red River, but they've beaten everyone else they
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played. Yeah, they've beaten everybody else. They've gotten to win over Alabama,
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which is why they have stayed once bot ahead of Alabama the entire playoff
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rankings, and to see that change at this point. If you do that,
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you better make sure that Texas is one of the playoff teams, whether
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that is for in Alabama street. But we'll get to that. So,
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yeah, I'm with you. I think Texas should be in. And if
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they're not, then they're not going to enter the SEC as happy campers.
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No, they definitely will not. So I think we've got you know,
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I think you've got Washington in for sure. Michigan, assuming they don't do
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something really stupid on Saturday night, they should be in Texas. You would
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really have to stretch the bounds of you know, the previous definitions of what
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a playoff team is to get them out. I think I feel reasonably confident
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that, assuming the status quo kind of plays out, those are three of
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your teams now. Florida State undefeated as of this moment, they are about
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to play Louisville. They I don't know if they're going to play with their
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second or third string quarterback. They are a considerable underdog against virtually everyone else
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in any kind of hypothetical matchup of college football playoff field. The Playoff Committee
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has talked about the fact that it is the best, not the most deserving
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and VOA. This has always been the case, and it's like, well,
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I don't know the previous examples of playoff fields would stand up to that
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scrutiny. But either way, Florida State Tony probably win and they're in maybe
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your thoughts, I am a little below maybe. I Having been on those
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calls with the committee the last couple of weeks, they view this as a
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different Florida State team than the one that was ten or eleven to zero with
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Jordan Travis at quarterback. They view this as a very different team, and
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yet they still continue to rank them number four, even though they go into
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each week with a clean slate. So I am not convinced that Florida State
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is in with a win. And I know there's never been an undefeated Power
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five champion that has been left out to this point. However, the committee
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doesn't need to worry about setting precedents or following precedents. With this being the
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last year of the four team playoff, I think it was a very It
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wasn't an accident that they talked about it. It's being the four best last
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week, not the four most deserving. And that's why I believe you need
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to see Florida State with a fifty nine to nothing type of win over Louisville
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like Ohio State had in twenty fourteen against Wisconsin, because if Wisconsin loses,
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our O High State wins that game twenty three to twenty and twenty fourteen,
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I'm not convinced they make the playoffs. No, I don't think they did.
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And that was Ohio State having to jump a couple teams that were ranked
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ahead of them that both won that previous week, because that was before the
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Big Twelve had a championship game. This would just be Florida State having to
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you know, Georgia was ahead of them, but Georgia lost. Alabama was
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a couple spots behind them. So Alabama, you know, won but didn't
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win by a ton. So I don't know. I don't think they needed
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fifty nine nothing. They might need to win by ten or fourteen. I
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don't know they need to win by fifty nine. But it's there is a
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lot of gray area there in a way that I don't think there has ever
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been gray area with what could be a thirteen to zero undefeated Power five Conference
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champion. No undefeated Power five Conference champion has ever been left out, but
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no SEC champion has ever been left out. But no team that was ranked
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number one in the penultimate meaning it next to last rankings has ever been left
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out. So you're gonna make history if Michigan and Florida State both went on
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Saturday Night two of the never have I ever are going to be things that
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have happened. So that's you know, Alabama. I'm thinking they're out in
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less either Florida State or Michigan lose, but they're maybe not out of Florida
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State lose. Alabama Georgia. Right now, you presumably have to put Alabama
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over Georgia because they just won, right, yeah, absolutely, there's no
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conference championship there. You have the head to head, you have the extra
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data point of the conference championship game. So Georgia falls out at this point
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and they need a ton of help. But to stay in there. For
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me, it would be Alabama is going to jump four spots essentially, probably
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perhaps winning and you might see Florida State drop a spot for winning, and
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that's what would have to happen essentially to put Alabama in over Florida State.
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Obviously Alabama's win is better than Florida State's, but it's I will believe an
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SEC champ doesn't make the playoffs when I see it, and because I can
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believe they leave Florida State out sooner than I can believe they'll leave Alabama.
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I said that exact phrase on the phone with a friend of mine about forty
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five minutes ago. I will believe it when I see it, that they
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will leave an SEC CHAMPIONAIP. This would also be two years in a row
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that Nick Saban felt he got hosed if they do get left out, because
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he was he was adamant last year that they should have gotten in so well
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I don't. I feel like, boy, you're setting a weird and dangerous
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precedent by jumping Alabama over Florida State. Where it gets that becomes a very
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very subjective thing at that point, but you know you can't very well jump
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Alabama over Texas probably, So yeah, that's gonna be. That's going to
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be quite a meeting on the Saturday night slash Sunday morning for that playoff committee.
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So all right, Tony, let's say Texas, Washington, Michigan,
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Florida State. That's your field. Alabama and Georgia then are in the New
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year six pairings. Well, one of them goes to the Orange Bowl to
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play presumably Louisville. Where does that leave Ohio State. That would leave Ohio
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State somewhere tom other than the Orange Bowl. And we're talking about possibly the
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Cotton bull which is this year it's at large versus at large, and also
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you've got the Fiesta Bowl, which is at large versus at large. The
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Peach Bowl is at large versus a group of five. So Ohio State will
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be in one of those bowl games, presumably, I think more realistically,
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the Cotton Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl, and whichever it is, between those
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two. That's tom. Somebody smarter than me is going to have to decide
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that. So I will let them do that time. And I know that
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I have no idea. It seems like at that point you probably put if
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Alabama is a higher ranked team in the final rankings, which you would assume
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they would be with the head to head, they would go to the Orange
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Bowl as the highest ranked of the Big ten SEC Notre Dame group, and
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they would play the highest ranked non playoff ACC team, So that would probably
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be Alabama and Louisville. So then for the Fiesta Cotton Impeach, you're looking
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at a pool of probably Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Missouri,
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and Georgia, plus the group of five teams, which at this point might
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be Troy, maybe Liberty. I mean, we'll see what the committee ends
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up doing there. That'll be a conversation that lasts about fifteen seconds. As
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they're done, you know they're going to spend every possible moment fighting over three
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four, five, and then they'll figure out the group of five teams in
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about thirty seconds right before the TV show goes on. I'm guessing, but
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you know, to me, if George is in that group. It would
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make a lot of sense to send Georgia to the Peach Bowl, basically a
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home game, you fill, you know, the stadium, they play Troy
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whatever. So then Fiesta and Cotton is a combination of Ohio State, Penn
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State, Oregon, Missouri. Probably that that's kind of based on where the
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rankings were less we get probably those four teams. Obviously Ohio State and Penn
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State are not going to play, so one of them goes to the Fiesta,
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one of them goes to the Cotton Fiesta Bowl. You assume Oregon probably
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in the Fiesta Bowl because that's a little more west, and Missouri in the
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Cotton Bowl because that's a little more plane z. Right. So well,
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High State versus Oregon in the Fiesta, Penn State versus Missouri, and the
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Cotton maybe reverse the big ten teams. I mean, does that all make
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sense? That's what I'm That's where I'm leaning right now. I think the
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Higher State Oregon would be pretty good for TV and good for both of these
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teams in terms of their interest. I don't know that you know, Ohio
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State Missouri is as interesting, but you know, it is one very interesting
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game, better than two semi interesting games in terms of ratings and things like
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that, and is there any backroom dealing in terms of, you know,
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the Fiesta would really like to have this team, and you know, what
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kind of agreements can they have there? But yeah, Ohio State Oregon sounds
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like a fun matchup. But I still I still want to know what happens
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if you know, Florida State is somewhere, and I don't think it's I
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don't think it's We obviously don't know what the teams are going to be,
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so I think saying yeah, sure, I think maybe the Fiestal Festa Bowl.
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I mean, there's clearly more that's going to happen, and we may
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be completely off on who's actually in the playoffs, which is still, as
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I said earlier, pretty crazy Saturday Saturday night with not much left to know.
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And the New Year six just in case you're wondering, the Cotton Bowl
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Friday, December twenty ninth, that's a primetime game that of course in Arlington,
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Texas. The Peach Bowl and the Orange Bowl are Saturday, December thirtieth
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at noon and four, and then the Fiesta Bowl is the one pm game
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on New Year's Day, so that would be you know basically what happened when
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Ohio State played Notre Dame out there in two thousand and fifteen, right that.
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You know, that's the one pm game, and then you have the
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four pm and eight pm playoff games that day. So that's the one scenario.
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The other scenario is, Okay, we're going to run it all back.
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It's Washington, it's Michigan, it's Texas, and this time one of
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the SEC teams gets in, Alabama gets in, say Florida Date is out
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that At that point, it's Georgia and Florida State in the Orange Bowl,
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assuming that Georgia stays ahead of Ohio State, which I would assume that they
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would, and then that's that's where you get into you know, the Fiesta
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and Cotton and all the teams we talked about there, that's all a possibility.
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At that point, the Peach Bowl is open, and you know,
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it's not Georgia, it's not Alabama. They are going to the playoff,
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the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl. So at that point, that's when
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the Peach Bowl and a group of five game opens up. I don't know
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that the Peach Bowl would take Ohio State a year after Ohio State was just
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there. And I don't know that you necessarily want to put Ohio State,
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which is your biggest remaining TV draw, against the Group of five team,
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but that might move one of the other pieces around where, you know,
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does that become Missouri in the Peach Bowl against Troy or whoever? And then
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who else does that open up in terms of a potential opponent for Ohio State
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in the playoff because beyond those teams, Ole miss would be the next team
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on the playoff rankings from last week that could be in that mix. So,
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you know, Ohio State and Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl or something
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like that, or you know, Oklahoma. Maybe it's it's something along those
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lines because at that point Louisville, who's lower, potentially falls out, assuming
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that Floridas State beats Louisville either way, you know, maybe maybe you get
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Florida State in the you know, in the Peach Bowl. This is all
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to say there are a million different moving pieces and it is now almost eight
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pm on the East Coast to the Big Ten Championship Game. The ACC Championship
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Game are still set to kick off, and about the only thing that I
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can feel pretty confident as saying is that Ohio State is not going to the
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place that virtually everyone thought Ohio State was going to twelve hours ago. Yeah,
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and it's again, that's pretty crazy because Georgia losing is not the biggest
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upset, but just that loss, what it has done to everything, throws
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everything into a whack. I think Missouri maybe might be a good good bet
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for the Peach Bowl because their fans would love to go, and so it
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doesn't matter who they're playing, they'll just be happy to do that. I
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could also see the Peach Bowl liking Ohio State because that's a fern Ohio and
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that's a short drive, you know, eight hours, and whether they've been
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there last year or not, that's never really stopped the Rose Bowl or anything
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like that. It certainly hasn't stopped the festival from having Ohio State out there.
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But I think Missouri fans would love to be into something like that,
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and that is an SEC destination, so maybe that would be kind of their
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version of an SEC Championship perhaps. Well, I mean, they've they've gone
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to the SEC Championship before, they've never won it, but they have gotten
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there before. So yeah, but that does seem like that is maybe more
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of a destination thing for an SEC team, So whether it's Ole, miss
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or Missouri or whoever, I would lean towards one of them being in the
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Peach Bowl at that point. But again, this is all this is all
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very speculative because there are so many moving parts here, and even with this,
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with all of these being at large spots, no one's locked in other
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than top ranked SEC, Big ten Notre Dame team versus ACC in the Orange
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Bowl. That's the only spot where that's locked in. Other than that and
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the Group of five spot in the Peach Bowl, everything else is just yeah,
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there's going to be some horse trading and they're going to figure it out.
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And what's going to decide that. Is it going to be who's been
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not been there then the longest or are you trying to put the biggest brands
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in the primetime TV swats? We don't know. We will all find out
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together on Sunday. What a bizarre end to a really bizarre season. And
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boy, Iowa and Louisville could really screw up this whole conversation even more depending
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on what they do on Saturday night. Can't wait to see how that all
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shakes out. So when this all does shake out, we will be over
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at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center on Sunday afternoon to talk to Ryan Day about
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who and where the Buckeyes are playing next. Got a chance to talk to
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him, get a chance to break it all down, find out. You
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know, we will probably not yet know exactly who is and is not playing,
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but that'll be a bunch of interesting stuff to talk about in the next
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couple of weeks. The transfer portal officially opens on Monday. All of the
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exciting stuff with the last couple weeks and heading into early signing Day, that
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is all coming up. What an eventful month it's going to be at Buckey
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Huddle dot com. Tony, Kevin and I covering the team, Mark covering
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recruiting, Mickey and Devin and Ross picking you a s murder football fan calling
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the x's and o's all at Buckeyehuddle dot Com. That will do for today.
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Thank you guys all for joining us. Have a great day. We'll
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talk to you tomorrow.