Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / Indycar XPEL GP Road America | Push to Cash Betting Preview
Transcript
- f1capper: GP preview. I got Nate Rogers here and got F1 Capper. We're here to go through the weekend slate of bets. ⁓ yeah, man, what's going on? I know we didn't catch you on the last pod. It's been two weeks, three weeks even. So how are you feeling? iN8Rodgers: Yes, it's a little time off. Yep, doing pretty good. Glad to be back. This is ⁓ my favorite road course and maybe it was just one of my favorite races and tracks overall on the calendar. So ⁓ I'm glad it's Road America. It's it's kinda helping me pull out of this five hundred hangover. I feel like I somehow still may be in, but yeah, Gateway was my worst kind of result of the year, but I I mean I only lost about one and a half units, but ⁓ it was a fun race. ⁓ I was able to cover some of that loss with ⁓ some live betting on on Newgarden. ⁓ but ⁓ I I was kinda off on Newgarden for for that race because of his injury. I just didn't really touch him and he proved to still kinda be the owner of Gateway there and ⁓ I enjoyed the race. ⁓ lost a little bit of money but that's okay. Still a really really solid year so far and ready to keep it rolling. f1capper: Yeah, props to the guys that they backed ju Joseph Newgarden. I was in the same boat, man. I was like, my mind is saying, take you know it you should take it. You should take it. You should take it. But I was like, Yeah, but he's injured, you know, like every time I put money on him, he's this past year and a half, he's I didn't do it. I even though I knew the obvious was was to take it. ⁓ but I didn't do it. I I did take Pillow only because I was like, Wow, he's at, you know plus four fifty and you know odds were at like two to one or something. I knew it wasn't gonna hit, but I still did it anyways. There's and ⁓ kinda upsetting I did that. I think I'm at the s ⁓ same boat. I think it was like minus one point four units. Didn't really have a whole lot. I think I had like three bets or something. And ⁓ one of the matchups did not hit, unfortunately. I think the other did, which I didn't really have as much as the first matchup. ⁓ yeah, that was that was a fade Grosjan. It was Foster over Grosjon and I was like, Wow, Foster, you really sucked. Like it's really sucked today. So yeah, it wasn't too good. Wasn't too happy, but that's okay. We're here at Road America. We're here to rebound. You know, we got the losses out of the way. So now we're on to so to Road America. I agree with you. Great, great track. I'm looking forward to seeing them at this track. It's iN8Rodgers: ⁓ f1capper: We're now at a more traditional track. It's what do we call it? The Midwest Spa is what some people like to call it because it is a lengthy one, but it's a fun one. It gives you a little bit of everything, you know, high speed, low speed, medium speed corners. ⁓ so this is going to definitely test drivers. ⁓ so yeah, I don't know if you have your preview. ⁓ or if not, we can we can get right into it. iN8Rodgers: So I ⁓ I d I don't have my formal preview up, but it just some just some notes. This is the longest track of the year. It's over four miles per lapse of just fifty-five laps in the race. And that normally leads to really small pit windows. I think we had a three stopper, but f1capper: Yeah. iN8Rodgers: Some of the things I normally say about Road America, which is is if you make a mistake early it's kinda hard to catch back up in and then two, the the small pit windows make it hard to fuel save, it you know, a and pull that off, which last year proved both of those things wrong where like someone like Malucas wrecked early on and then finished like seventh and some other people recovered. ⁓ just a really weird year last year. Dixon almost pulled off the fuel save and then Pillow out Dixon Dixon and ended up winning. on a a pretty crazy fuel save. ⁓ This back to kind of this track, it does give teams some some variability of what they can do on the downforce levels and the wing angles because of that long straight and such a long lap, kind of like what we saw in Arlington, but maybe a little bit on steroids because it's even longer. Yeah, I just I love watch there's a couple good passing zones. I love watching this race on TV. It looks good, but at the same time I'm conflicted because I want to be there having some spotted cow and ⁓ bratwurst but the pole sitter is act that actually only won two out of eleven times and hasn't won since twenty eighteen but ⁓ you still see your winners come mostly up front ⁓ first couple rows. We have someone that won from as far back as ninth, but everything else has been kinda two through five. Pinsky has four wins. Genassi has six wins with Andretti the only other team with one win in twenty nineteen when Rossi won by like forty seconds or something. Really insane. But it's basically kind of been going back and forth between Pinsky and Genassi. ⁓ Penske didn't look quite as good here last year and Pelow was just doing Pelow things. ⁓ and that's why I like I was I would be kind of interested in Newgarden if he didn't have the injury. I don't think he's fully healed, but I he's been really good here. And ⁓ even though he's kinda fallen off on road courses. So this would kind of be that true test of, you know, we're we're in this middle ground of like, is this guy washed? Is he just an oval guy? But he's had a decent result at the NDGP. He's actually been kinda outpacing McLaughlin. And so that's kinda where I was starting my thoughts there. Like, is Pinsky still here or do I just bet pillow? f1capper: Yeah. ⁓ I think without ⁓ my mind has always been the same, like trend is friend kind of thing. Penske has just not been the same in the h hybrid era, only at ovals. They seem to always have the right car at ovals, the right drivers too at ovals. But what is glaring this year, and we talked about this probably ⁓ multiple times throughout the season, which is Scott McLaughlin, like what's happened to him? Like he used to be looking so dominant and y at points last year during the hybrid era spe especially, he looked like he was the number one driver and all of a sudden he's kinda dropped off. Malucas has entered the the conversation at this point and quite honestly, it's seems like Malucas has kinda overtaken those two when it comes to road courses, but when it comes to Ovals, obviously, Joseph Newgarden said hold my hold that thought because he's s even with the broken foot, it seemed like he was doing just fine. So I think I'm still cautious about Penske going into road courses. ⁓ especially going like placing a bet prequal, 'cause we've seen it multiple times, ⁓ for Joseph at least, where where is he? He's like P fifteen, P seventeen, he's just not qualifying at all. Scott McLaughlin looks great at times during practice and then all of a sudden he's just like a P seven, P eight. you know, like and then maybe gets up to P5. There's times he's looked really awesome and he's he looks like he can he can be on podium and then all of a sudden he's just something happens with strategy, something he drops off. So to me, my mind is still always gonna lean Penske caution with them until y you you find the right odds if you're willing to take those odds. And now everyone has a different betting style in our between our group. But you can easily, you know, if you're the type that wants to take on top threes outrights and all that, I mean you just gotta I would say be patient, but you know, some others might have different opinions and they will just go for it. So, ⁓ yeah, that's just how I feel with them. And Pelow, Ganassi, they're well oiled machine. I I don't I don't mean I don't want to chalk to Pillow yet. I'd rather chalk to Pillow whenever I see, you know, get to post qualifying, but that's where I kinda lean on them. I am curious though, Meyer Shank. They have been on the uptrend in my mind, and my eyes, ⁓ through even Ovals. I mean, they've looked decent on Ovals, ⁓ especially the Indy five hundred. So I am definitely I don't know where to place them, but they, you know, I think that I want to say this year this year I'm a little bit more optimistic about them. And I think they can be competitive to the point where like they're they're the almost like the second best team behind ⁓ next to Andretti. Even Andretti at times has looked pretty horrid at ⁓ you know not performing to expectations. I don't want to say horrid, but they have not been performing to expectations. That Arlington race, everyone's like, ⁓ they're dominant, but They haven't really been that dominant throughout the year. Like really haven't been. ⁓ after that race. Kirkwood hasn't won a race. And I remember going into the season, I was one of the few that was like, take the under two and a half on on Kirkwood wins. And then he wins Arlington. I'm like, ⁓ maybe that's a mistake and here we are halfway through the season. I'm like, Yeah, I don't I don't know what's going on with Andretti at times, ⁓ with with Kirkwood specifically, since he's the most more seasoned driver for the team. So What do you think? What do you think of of Meyer Shank Andretti getting in the mix? iN8Rodgers: So I am rock rocking the Marcus Armstrong Acura hat here, so and I I do have some money back on Armstrong once again. ⁓ it wouldn't it wouldn't be a race weekend without that. and I yeah, th Armstrong started stronger to start the year and Felix was kinda rough. I don't think he even had like ⁓ a good result much before the the five hundred, ⁓ maybe one and then, you know, he has a great drive at Detroit coming off that amazing five hundred win. Armstrong a great result. And they just look good like track to track. ⁓ one of them kinda seems to to fall off in a race, have a tough day, whether it's their fault or not, and the other one seems to excel. They haven't like quite had that massive like team result yet, but there's someone you have to look at, especially with the odds you get for them every week you have to look at. And ⁓ yeah, Andretti, ⁓ they've actually impressed me on road courses and the short ovals, but they're not they haven't quite capitalized yet. Like Erickson looked awesome at at Gateway, but like better than he's ever looked at a short oval. And and Kirkwood ha has been hanging in this championship on these road courses, which you know, I started the year fading them and on like grid rival and things, but I've I've been a little more hesitant to do that. And but but then the street courses we should see them winning every street course and they're not. They're not able to take down Polo. So that's I've I've always thought that with Andretti, like when their best tracks are the ones that are like the most volatile, they just don't get the maximized performance and that's why like Pelow when you have seven road courses in a year and he can win almost all seven like he almost locks up the championship in that which and then now he's just finding ways to dominate street courses and yeah street courses and ovals too so it's it's very scary for the field. but I I would say ⁓ like McLaren is is the most disappointing of of those two. I f1capper: Yeah. I haven't even brought them up. iN8Rodgers: Like Pado's had a good year because he has like s six top fives, but he hasn't done anything better than that. And then he also has these races where he's his best races like these short ovals and especially the N D five hundred. I I think he's getting what he can out of the car, but I I don't think they're helping them. And then so Pato's kind of falling back on these road courses where Lungard is getting the most out of the car that I think they should be giving him a better car. And Lungard's doing insane stuff on the road courses but But I I think those two drivers are kind of outperforming what McLaren's given them. And you just watch races like Detroit where they're like trying to get in the mix and they can't. They're just stuck there in that fourth and fifth. And you see the short ovals. They're falling back one spot, two spots, like Pato's falling back every restart. And then he can't really move forward much. And normally he's a guy who kind of works on that car, gets better as the race goes on. And then he just he has not moved at all in the ND500 or the or Gateway. He's just been stuck and actually. ended up moving backwards at Gateway. And so I like they I think they tested here at Road America and they're normally pretty good here, but like I'm so hesitant to put money on them, especially pre-qualifying. I really would like Lungard here and I think I probably do, but I'm worried I'm going to bet that 10 to 1, which I actually did put money on Lungard because I have a profit bet I'll get to that. But like as far as top three you know I'm just concerned that he'll he'll qualify like 13. or something. f1capper: Yeah, I I'm the same way. Like the only guy I can look at and it's it's kinda crazy. I know, you know, all jokes aside about Pato, I know I've been kind of in and out of that Pato ⁓ shilling that he's not been that great. ⁓ and I have nothing against the guy. I actually liked McLaren. I think they were one of the teams I was rooting for just from coming from F one and being a McLaren just guy, I like the cars ⁓ growing up and whatnot. iN8Rodgers: Yeah. So yeah. f1capper: F1 McLaren Mercedes team was Lewis Hamilton. That was where kind of really got knee deep into that. And then it's just I I when it comes to the betting aspect, the odds have not favored me wanting to back Pato ever right now. It's just not I mean, they're constant the books are just treating him like he is going to be a top three, top driver. And I'm like That's not the situation. And you know, to your point, like Lungard, we've seen it at times where we're like, whoa, his odds are a little bit more favorable. So we've had the benefit of having the books react to Pato that way with Lungard there thinking he's the second driver. But in my eyes, it's actually kind of flipped. But just to be, you know, nice to Pato, it's like one A, one B. Right? They should all they should if you're gonna put Pato at that price. Lungar should be at that price, ⁓ for a lot of these tracks. Maybe not ovals, like road courses. So iN8Rodgers: Yeah. And and I mean like the stats would say if if I can get a plus one fifty or even even money on Pado ⁓ top five at a short oval, like that's like a eighty percent hit rate or something. But the way they're trending this year, I would I thought I would never say this, but I'd rather take Pado top five on a street course, which he's done like three times this year, than I would take him even though he still has a top five in two out of three ovals, but like it ch it just doesn't look good. He doesn't look f1capper: Mm-hmm. iN8Rodgers: I guess it looks good but it doesn't look good enough to contend for wins. It's like it's so they're so weird. They're not bad. They're not like back of the pack but there's something holding them back that like they can get to between five and eight and then they're stuck there. They like Ray Hall can outperform them. The it really like several teams can g get up a little bit closer and they just get stuck to where they're a good team, but they're not anywhere in the conversation to be a contending, like great team. I'm f1capper: Yeah. No, I that's why I'm it's been kind of silly this year because I'm like, who'd you know, I wanna take some of these these top markets, but it's just not been favorable because one, Pelow is just dominating. ⁓ what is he dominated eighty percent of the season so far? You know, and then y you throw in like a Meyer Shank as one and ⁓ Kirkwood has won and then I mean we we were close to seeing a Lungard potential. Like that was the best result we saw as as pure odds that you could have got was Lungard top three at Barber, I feel like this year. I mean, ⁓ outside of s throw away IndyCar five hundred, 'cause it's you know, everyone's like a fourteen, fifteen, whatever to one. But from a road course, like you look at the top three, it's generally been you you're taking some odds on the guys that were already gonna be up there, except for that one. If you took that pre weekend, ⁓ But yeah, let's ⁓ let's talk about that pick because I know you got a bunch of outrights. I do I think you're on the same thing with one of the matchups, but I'm gonna let you go with your your card. You got a lot. I have not kept up this week with what you've been doing, so iN8Rodgers: It's yeah, I mean, it's it's pretty light for me. I was like looking today at lunch, I was looking at all these bets and I was like I I feel more like you this weekend where like I just need to wait it out, but I can't do that. I gotta if I it's there's too much th too much potential value sitting there that I have to bet on. Yeah. So I I'm working on it, but it's it's been slow for me, like, of trying to figure out what where I wanna go, but f1capper: Yeah. Don't don't go don't don't be taking me. I need you to be the one firing. Well, I will say it is a hard track to kind of gauge in the fact that it is the traditional track, it's a longer track, three stops, lots of different things can happen. I totally get it. iN8Rodgers: Yeah. But I I started with Pillow at plus one thirty. That's short, but it's also like for Pillow, is it? ⁓ I put a one point one units on that, which that kinda squeezes me for the rest of my outrights since that's so close to even odds. But ⁓ I took a Malucas at ten to one. ⁓ you know, I'm already I I put my post I'm already missing those twenty to ones we got on Malucas earlier in year and he nearly capitalized a couple times and like Phoenix and and Barber and things like that, but I guess our first Malucas win will have to come at a lower number but you know after Pelow and then someone like maybe Lungard Ray Hall like Malucas is in that mix of the best road course drivers this year so I like that 10 to 1. ⁓ I I had a 50% profit boost to use again so I had to use it on IndyCar. It got Lungard up to 12 to 1. I was mostly gonna wait on Lungard but that was just the best place I could find to use that so I'll probably just stick with those three outli outrights no matter what happens. And then my podium Plays so far. I just have Armstrong at 16 to 1. I really liked the top five at 750, but ⁓ just missed out on that. And then I went ahead and took power at 6-1. he's got decent history here, and Dreddy has decent qualifying history here, so I think there is value there. ⁓ you could also take his top five at like three to one, two seventy-five, but I'm staying pretty light so far. That's only half a unit total on those two podium plays, so I'm definitely gonna add more once I kind of see who's looking. strong. But ⁓ yeah, if you want to move into those matchups. f1capper: Yeah, yeah. The matchup that I d I liked, I mean, you're wearing the hat. You got the guy up there, which is Armstrong. I think, you know, for the most part, like you said, he's you know, I don't know where he'll qualify. I don't and I d honestly don't think he will qualify below like P twelve. I think he will be in that like range between six and twelve. He's been pretty consistent and even last year he had like a top five performance as well and He's flashed, he's done it. I know there's been frustrations at times. But it's against Ferrucci, and I thought the number was really good. And I think the number was even better when I saw someone post about it, like even before, but I saw it at Evens and I was like, ⁓ yeah, I gotta on Bet 365, had to get my proxy to help me get that. And I was like, I definitely like that one. I didn't place anything else. Didn't want to get too cute with it, but that was one of my favorite plays because it was against Ferrucci. I can't remember. I hadn't I said I was gonna look this up and I just didn't get to it. I believe this was like the r was this the race where Ferrucci ended up just crossing the line, barely with any fuel, and someone a fan threw him a beer or something like yeah, that was the one, right? And I that's that's what came to mind was there was a fortunate situation to have him up there. iN8Rodgers: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. f1capper: But we still even had Armstrong in the top five. So I just think that the Meyer Shank, just me, I liked what Meyer Shank has brought to the table. They're no lon they don't have the drop off like they've had in the past with the race pace. ⁓ so I expect that Armstrong is going to beat Ferrucci and I liked it at Evens. iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I did one point two five units on that, which is normally like a little bigger than I'll go for a pre qualifying matchup. A lot of times I'll just do like half a unit on those 'cause you're just kinda unsure, but Armstrong there's been ten road course races in the hybrid area and Armstrong has beat Ferrucci in nine of those. But the the only one yeah, the only one he hasn't happened to beat him in was Road America last year with that fuel save strategy. But like you said, Armstrong was fifth. That doesn't really concern me. ⁓ Frucci qualified eighteenth last year. ⁓ the tough thing with Ferrucci matchups when you fade him is that he's not like a guy that wrecks the car really. So s you know, sometimes you kinda need your guy to finish top ten to beat Ferrucci 'cause he'll kinda hang around that like f1capper: ⁓ even better. iN8Rodgers: 8 to 13 area, but ⁓ I feel good about Armstrong being able to do that. ⁓ I have one other matchup. I took Ray Hall over Foster. Foster was they were way too short on his odds because he got pole last year here. ⁓ it kind of surprised him when he did it. ⁓ but I mean you can expect Ray Hall team to still be pretty good here, but ⁓ and I do think Foster's getting better. ⁓ and I also just had a flashback from last year. I I put like I think. You were on this too. We had like three units on McLaughlin over Foster and McLaughlin lost to he l he finished one spot behind him. So still some sc Yeah, still some scars from that one. But I mean Ray Hall's been awesome on road courses this year. ⁓ he's more consistent than Foster, even if Foster out outqualifies him a little bit. I I'm not too worried about that. ⁓ so I I got that initially like one fifty-five and one plus one thirty-five. So f1capper: It's pretty bad. iN8Rodgers: ⁓ for a whole unit. I feel pretty good about both of those. f1capper: Yeah, no, I'm I'm trying to s I I an another thing that's going through my head is why I'm like kinda cautious about taking match I love the matchups. Matchups all day. Give it to me and I'll I'll hit those and you you have a happy boy. ⁓ it's just ⁓ this type of track. I don't know how I feel like this is going to be a little bit different in terms of how everyone is going to Well, of course strategy being one, but It's a longer track. It's got so many different types of elevation and types of breaking points, turns. And I haven't even checked the weather. So I don't even know what the weather's going to be like compared to what we're used to with street courses. And it is to this this track will test drivers for sure. So that's what ⁓ kind of gets me like pausing about I want to see some of the practice data before I get into anything else. So I'm I'm really excited to see what happens. ⁓ tomorrow, at least in the first practice session, which I won't be around for. I know US Men's national team also plays or it's just gonna finish right right before practice. So I'm hoping in the evening I'll be able to take some of that data and say like what can we say what can we take out of this if we can take anything and at least just kind of gauge how are the teams doing? How are these drivers doing? ⁓ because I'm a I'm I don't know like RL L has been something on the back of my mind. How are they gonna perform here? They've seemed to be s much better this year, but now we're at a little bit of a different track. It's it's let's see how they perform, ⁓ compared to to the field. So ⁓ iN8Rodgers: Yeah, it's ⁓ it's like something to keep in mind. Like the the loss on pit lane is so long and so if someone has to do an extra stop or there's a mistake there, like that's so costly. in qualifying and practice times, like kinda think about when y you know, if someone makes a slight mistake in a like in in such a long lap, a four mile lap, it it ruins their whole lap but they have to, you know, spend the rest of the time getting back to the start finish line to to try it again, but ⁓ You know, it it just kind of depends of who can put that massive lap together. ⁓ I know some teams tested and I'm trying not to jump on that too much even though they did get their hands on the new tires, but it almost seems like the teams who test the last couple of years come back worse, maybe overthink it. So I don't want to overthink those results. ⁓ I'm just I I think I'm I think I'm below. f1capper: with you. I'm well yeah. I'm yeah, I'm kind of I don't know what I'm trying to do here with Pelow. I'm waiting for Cal she a little bit, maybe. I'm maybe hoping that Pelow qualifies like P four and then you know, I get that opportunity. If I don't get the opportunity to strike on him, I'm that's fine. I'll I'll I'll be okay. ⁓ But going back to your testing comment, it is true. You can't overthink it. It's very easy to do that. You might make a tweak. I don't ⁓ when was the testing actually? iN8Rodgers: ⁓ last week. ⁓ but like weather's gonna be similar and stuff I think, so f1capper: So it was last week. Okay. So similar that then, but like again, I haven't even checked. Like, is it gonna rain? Is it gonna be cooler? What are we gonna see between the tracks? How was it then? Like elements could be different. ⁓ but yeah, I'm I'm looking forward to this weekend and seeing how they're gonna perform. So I'm I'm on the I'm on the boat of I wanna see next two the those next two days. And then yeah, I'm gonna fire off whenever I see lines come out for ⁓ like that evening or Friday mor or Sunday morning. So ⁓ but otherwise, like I'm still my mind hasn't changed in how I'm approaching the teams for these, except for RLL has moved up a little bit in my book. I definitely do not want to fade them. I think AJ Foyt will with Furucci specifically, he will do fine. I am interested to see how Collette does as well. That's another guy that could be ⁓ a wild card. We'll see how he performs. But I'm not gonna, it's his first time there. That's gonna be a taxing race. I don't wanna be cute with that. ⁓ so maybe they've moved up a little bit in my book. Rossi and ECR, I'm not I have no interest in them. They're the they can strike like crazy on a track when you least expect it, and then when you are on that train. They just disappoint you. So you kinda don't know what you're actually getting from them. But if I had to guess, I think that I definitely think Rasmussen will not be it will struggle, ⁓ like he always does. But Rossi, he might be in that same like I he could he can be up there in the top ten, but then maybe he's maybe he just ha had falters and he's in the P eleven to P fifteen. So we'll see. ⁓ I am tempted to fade Rossi though this year, ⁓ f for any racist ⁓ or head matchups that are coming up, so iN8Rodgers: Yeah, he does have one versus Armstrong. I th Ross yeah, Rossi on his podcast has been pr he was pretty kind of he was excited about f1capper: Thought about it. iN8Rodgers: their test and how that went, how much speed that actually gave them without fixing anything. that could happen to every team that shows up though if the tires are just like that. ⁓ but he's pretty optimistic about their package. So I I mean I was kinda hoping for maybe like a top ten kind of a pick ⁓ play, if I can find that this weekend. Maybe a top ten on Cal she if I can find it good plus odds. But Yeah, so I'm not I I I guess I'd just be buying into his words here, but I may go the the opposite way just a little bit. f1capper: Yeah, I that's why I don't and I also already have an Armstrong bet. I don't want to put too much on Armstrong over someone. You know, he wrecks, we're screwed. Yeah. So I said, you know what, I'll be patient and see, like let me see how Rossi's gonna do and and we'll go from there. So ⁓ I have nothing else though. Do you have anything else? iN8Rodgers: Yeah, that can get painful. No, I'll have I'll I'll actually get a preview out here s sometime. I know it's a little late this week but that's you know, that's all right. And I'll have more picks coming and ⁓ just yeah, in the Discord we'll be talking talking Road America. Wish I was there. f1capper: Yeah, yeah, nope. No, it's gonna be fun, man. I'm w I wish too. I have some friends that are going I don't think they're gonna go for the indie race. I think it's next weekend. Not sure if it was NASCAR or whatever. But anyways. Looks like a lot of fun. I'll eventually make my way up there. I have some family up in Wisconsin now, so one day. One day. All right, man. We'll see you in the Discord. iN8Rodgers: See, yeah. All right.