Latest / Arctos x Teddy Sin - Coffee Break, Market Take / 22/10/2026 Thu - A green day is not a cheap dollar
Transcript
- This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice. Good morning. Teddy here. Most people see a green day and think the storm is over. I used to think that too. It cost me money more than once. A green day is one day. That's all it is. So let's look at yesterday honestly. Three things moved the board. Tech came back. Oil stayed hot. And bond yields stayed high. Start with tech. On Wednesday the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05 percent, to 26,702. The chip index did better, up almost 2 percent, with 29 of its 30 stocks higher. The spark was SpaceX. Its third quarter revenue grew 161 percent, and the stock jumped almost 8 percent. Then, after the closing bell, Meta reported. Record revenue of 64 billion dollars. The stock rose about 5 percent in after-hours trade. Tesla also reported, and it edged up about 1 percent after hours. Netflix went the other way, down about 5 percent, on a soft forecast. The Dow rose 0.69 percent. The S&P 500 rose 0.58 percent. Germany's DAX was even stronger, up about 1.4 percent, led by SAP. In Japan, the Nikkei closed about 1 percent higher on Wednesday, around 64,700. AI names led again. But Japan also showed a trade deficit nearly three times bigger than forecast, and the yen is sitting near 158 to the dollar. The Bank of Japan meets on the 30th of October. Now here's the part I want you to sit with. Tech had a good day. But the price of money did not get cheaper. That brings me to oil. Brent crude touched just over 111 dollars on Tuesday, its highest since May. On Wednesday it traded above 110 again, then eased to around 108 by midday in New York. West Texas crude was near 98. The reason is the same story we've been watching for weeks. Reports of strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and on Saudi energy facilities. When oil stays this high, inflation worries stay alive. And that leads straight to bonds. The US 10-year yield is around 5.13 percent. The Fed meets next week, on the 27th and 28th. Most economists expect a hold next week. But markets are pricing a high chance of a hike in December. Depending on the source, somewhere between 75 and 90 percent. Why does that matter to you? Because when a safe bond pays above 5 percent, every risky asset has to work harder to justify its price. Growth stocks feel it first. Small caps feel it too. Even gold has slipped for four sessions, now around 4,119 dollars an ounce, because higher yields and a firmer dollar take away some of its shine. Bitcoin had a better day, around 83,300 dollars, up about 2 percent, following tech higher. Now Asia closer to home. Hong Kong opened higher on Wednesday and then gave it all back. The Hang Seng closed 0.9 percent lower. CATL fell about 10 percent on slower profit growth, and Tencent closed below 400 Hong Kong dollars. In Malaysia, the KLCI closed up 0.16 percent at 1,602. It held the 1,600 line. But foreign selling has now topped 1 billion ringgit. Third quarter growth slowed to 5.3 percent. The ringgit firmed a little, to about 4.08 per dollar. And palm oil futures fell 73 ringgit to 4,522 a tonne, on weaker soybean oil and high stocks. So what do I watch today? Tonight at 8.30 pm Malaysia time, the US releases weekly jobless claims. A weak number could soften hike bets. A strong one could push yields higher again. Before that, Procter and Gamble, Lockheed Martin, American Airlines and Blackstone report. Here's the lesson I keep coming back to. A good earnings day tells you companies are doing fine. It does not tell you the cost of money is falling. Those are two different questions. Yesterday answered the first one. Oil and bonds are still answering the second. So when you open your chart today, keep it simple. Look at the candles. Check the direction. Ask if there's real momentum behind the move, or just one good headline. And decide your risk before you decide anything else. This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss, so size your risk before any trade. Survive first. See you tomorrow.