Latest / Ducks Unlimited Podcast / RELOADED EP346- Waterfowl Harvest Management Series, Part 18: Atlantic Flyway Multi-Stock Harvest Management

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RELOADED EP346- Waterfowl Harvest Management Series, Part 18: Atlantic Flyway Multi-Stock Harvest Management · Ducks Unlimited Podcast

• 0:03
  VO: Welcome to the Ducks Unlimited Podcast RELOADED, where we bring you the best of our past episodes. Whether you're a seasoned waterfowler or curious about conservation, this series is for you. Over the years, we've had incredible guests and discussions about everything from wetland conservation to the latest waterfowl research and hunting strategies. In RELOADED, we're revisiting those conversations to keep the passion alive and the mission strong. So sit back, relax, and enjoy this reload.
• 0:35
  Mike Brasher: I'm here again with our guest from the Atlantic Flyway to talk about Atlantic Flyway harvest regulations, doctor Min Wong with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection and doctor Pat Devers with the US Fish and Wildlife Service. Minh, welcome back.
• 0:48
  Min Wong: Thank you very much. Good to be back.
• 0:50
  Mike Brasher: And, Pat, same to you. Welcome back to the podcast.
• 0:53
  Pat Devers: Thanks, Mike. Happy to be here.
• 0:54
  Mike Brasher: This is a part two of our discussion on Atlantic Flyway Harvest Regulations. If you missed the previous episode, I certainly encourage you to go back and listen to that. I'll also, again, plug the more extensive list of episodes from our podcast from last year from fall and winter of twenty twenty twenty, twenty one, and, yeah, go back and listen to those. A lot of great information there to kinda get you up to speed on harvest regulations here and provides a bit of context to help you understand what we'll be talking about here today. So when we left off our last episode, we had gotten to the point where where Eastern Mallard was operational, things were going well.
• 1:31
  Somewhere along the way, people began to began to get a bit more serious about trying to do something different. Me and you and Pat both acknowledged on the at the end of that previous episode that harvest managers in the Atlantic Flyway, for the most part, had, for the longest time, not really viewed Mallard as the ideal duck species for dictating overall harvest frameworks in the Atlantic Flyway. Nevertheless, it was a species for which we had a lot of data and we knew the most about, and so we used it in that Eastern Mallard just sort of as another step along the way to being a bit more data driven in the way we're partitioning out and making our harvest management decisions. But as with everything that we do in our science based enterprise of waterfowl harvest management, we're always looking for improvements, for modifications. In the case of the Atlantic Flyway Harvest Regulations, you guys kinda correct me if I'm wrong here, but there was something else that sort of happened that may have accelerated or began to happen or was occurring, maybe is a fair way to say it, that may have accelerated some of the progress towards a different way of setting harvest regulations in the Atlantic Flyway, and that's gonna be the decline, an observed decline in the population size of eastern mallards, which as we talked in the previous episode, had become the basis for setting regulations.
• 2:50
  Now, naturally, as your population declines, that causes concerns and could lead to harvest restrictions. Again, kinda going back to Minh, what you and Pat were saying, that mallards never were viewed as the best, quote, best species for capturing all the harvest management aspects or all aspects of waterfowl harvest and harvest opportunities there in the Atlantic Flyway. That's a big concern. So, Minh, let me let me throw this first question to you. So tell us a little bit about that.
• 3:18
  When did the Atlantic Flyway states and federal partners really begin to perk up and ask more serious or ask more intent questions about what was going on with eastern mallards and its implications for that Atlantic Flyway process.
• 3:38
  Min Wong: You know, really, ever since we implemented eastern mallard you know, every year we were watching the B POP, you know, the breeding population estimate, and it was it was ticking down pretty much every year. But the models that we were the underlying models that were, you know, built to describe Eastern Mallard population dynamics were really indicating to us that, you know, there was a fair amount of density dependence operating on that population. And so, you know, we were all just like, hey. This is fine. You know, the population's coming down, but, you know, as it hits a certain point, MTD dependence is really gonna kick in, and we're gonna, you know, bounce right back up.
• 4:14
  And we'll probably oscillate it, you know, perhaps a little bit lower equilibrium population than maybe that we had, you know, before we went to a sixty day four bird bag. So, you know, I would say through the early mid eight two thousands, we really had had no consternation whatsoever. In fact, I can remember discussions within the Mallard Committee whereby, you know, we were talking about getting rid of the hen restriction, you know, even as that population continued to decline. I think it was probably 2008, 2009 when we all of a sudden saw a very large shift in the model weights that started putting a lot more weight on the hypothesis of weak density dependence operating on our population. And so that really gave us pause.
• 5:05
  And in 2009, going into 2010, we initiated what I'm sure your listeners have have heard referred to before as the double loop where we were kinda stepping back and and kinda looking under the hood and making sure that everything was was was correct. So we started an assessment late two thousand nine, two thousand ten to look at the underlying model structure and to try to update some of the parameters that were in that model, and that kinda started us off on on that.
• 5:37
  Mike Brasher: Minh, I wanna clarify a couple of things for our listeners that may have missed some of our earlier episodes. And a couple of things that you mentioned, density dependence, that's the basic premise that and there's a lot of data to support it in many wildlife populations that at lower as for a given population, if you were to kinda hold habitat conditions constant at lower population levels, recruitment measures are going to be higher because there's more more resources available for that smaller number of birds, or birds in this case, to reproduce. So at smaller population levels, you would have higher reproduction, but as those populations grow, the the competition for those resources increases, and so per capita per individual reproduction kinda declines. So that's density dependence, and that's kinda why you say, because we saw these declines in population levels, we weren't all that concerned because you were thinking about, okay. Well, assuming that we're not seeing massive change in our habitat base, then we should those birds that are out there, those lower population levels, should be reproducing at higher levels, and it's gonna kinda we're not gonna see a free fall kinda continue continue on.
• 6:44
  So that's kind of this concept of density dependence. And the model weight that you referenced is a is a component of adaptive harvest management where one of the things that it sets out to do is learn to to help us learn about which of these different population these different hypotheses regarding population dynamics and the interaction of harvest on those population dynamics or which of those are are most likely to be operating, and so the model weight is something that updates on an annual basis in response to the data we collect, and it's sort of an indication of which of those hypotheses at any given point in time we think is receiving the greatest weight. So I guess at this point, man, let's we at least have to reference this, what may be viewed an elephant in the room, which is this decline of the Eastern Mallard population. I imagine people are wanting us to talk about that or would like for us to talk about that and opine about what's driving that. We don't have time for that today, but what I I would do man, I'll direct it to you.
• 7:47
  You can you can pass it to Pat if you'd like to, but but, you know, kind of from a high level, where are we on that? Do we have an idea, or are we still gathering data to figure out exactly what's going on with the decline in the mallard population?
• 8:04
  Min Wong: You know, I'll pass it to Pat. No. You know, there are a number of hypotheses that we've kicked around for quite a while, you know, reductions in carrying capacity of the landscape for a number of different reasons. You know, one of them, several colleagues have have, you know, thought that the cessation of winter feeding, supplemental feeding in in parks and in places like that, you know, may may be in part driving some of this reductions in carrying capacity because of, you know, the paving of the Northeast. Maybe that's due in part to part as well.
• 8:41
  You know, certainly, you gotta look potentially towards over harvest, particularly as our model anyway was saying that we had weak density dependence operating and that harvest was potentially being additive. And, you know, potentially, it was just that, you know, we had a population that was exploding. It overshot k, and its new equilibrium point was a lot lower. So we really haven't been able to find that smoking gun. It's more than likely a little bit of a whole lot of things that have resulted in the decline.
• 9:12
  There's a couple fairly big studies that are just kicking off right now to at least look at some of the demographics of of eastern mallards, and, hopefully, that will will shed some light. Our contemporary banding data in PAC can certainly talk more about this do show that, you know, we have some fairly low survival rates in certain in certain co cohorts of the population. And so what what are the underlying causes for that?
• 9:37
  Mike Brasher: Pat, I certainly wanna give you an opportunity to to offer any comments from a Fish and Wildlife Service perspective. We talk all the time about the harvest management of this resource is a collaborative effort between the states and and the federal agency of Fish and Wildlife Service. So anything to add from a from the Fish and Wildlife Service perspective?
• 9:55
  Pat Devers: Not too much. I we are collaboratively working on some studies to try to get at at this issue. What what could be driving Eastern Mallard dynamics? And this has been a long running question. Unlike Midcontinent mallards, we haven't found any strong relationships between environmental conditions or one or two measures of habitat carrying capacity or as k as as men called it.
• 10:21
  So we do have a lot more work to do on understanding what's what's driving this population, but we are continuing to work cooperatively with the Atlantic Flyway states to try to address those information needs.
• 10:33
  Mike Brasher: Well, obviously, as the Eastern Mallard population continued to decline, Minh, I think you said 2008 was the year when it when it really got people's attention. Is that right?
• 10:46
  Min Wong: Yeah. 2009, we saw that big shift in model weights, and that unfortunately continued pretty drastically.
• 10:53
  Mike Brasher: Okay. So it doesn't take a whole lot here referencing something that I think I mentioned in the previous episode to realize that one of the implications of a declining population is some concern about harvest restrictions, and I guess the other thing to mention here is that, or I guess I'll I'll ask you guys about, what was the trajectory as we understood it of waterfowl populations or populations for other species of waterfowl in Atlantic Flyway? It's not like they were declining either, and that's really where the big concern comes in. Right? Because we had these contrasting trajectories downward for Mallard, but I believe the others were stable or increasing.
• 11:27
  Man, do I have that right? And what did those look like?
• 11:30
  Min Wong: Yeah. You do. I was actually gonna throw this to Pat if he wanted to take that one.
• 11:34
  Pat Devers: Yeah. I don't have the numbers, you know, in front of me right now, but certainly at that time, we had reason to believe that our other Atlantic Flyway populations were doing doing well, at least the the dabbling ducks. About the same time, black ducks were were stable. Wood ducks were were stable or slightly increasing. Other important ducks to the Atlantic Flyway Hunter, ring neck ducks, were still healthy.
• 12:01
  Green winged teal were healthy. So we didn't have any other signals telling us that that other stocks or populations important to Atlantic Flyway, hunters were were doing poorly, which ties into that long running discussion that's that's been an underlying current within the Atlantic Flyway going back to the fifties. But, yeah, we we had every reason to believe the other other populations were healthy and and that our harvest regulations were in line with with what they could sustain.
• 12:29
  Min Wong: And, yeah, just to add a little bit more to that is the fact that, you know, in the in the mid, I guess, mid two thousands, by that time, mallards are becoming less and less important in the duck bags of hunters from basically Virginia south. And so, you know, as as they were not seeing mallards, and yet all the other species they were harvesting were becoming more plentiful, again, it just really didn't seem like mallards were the best species to base our general duck regulations on.
• 12:57
  Mike Brasher: So I I guess just a real simple question here, recognizing we have a declining trajectory for mallards, that's gonna have some implications for those regulations. Did did the Atlantic Flyway ever go into or get close to a moderate or restrictive bag as a result of that decline? I suspect it was getting close or you could maybe see it on the horizon if things didn't correct, but did you ever did you ever get close or go into those restrictive or moderate packages?
• 13:23
  Min Wong: Yes. We did. We had talked a little earlier about those shifting model weights starting in 2009. So it's just an example of that. In 2009, the optimal policy was telling us that the liberal threshold so whenever the population was above x number, we would have a liberal season.
• 13:45
  In 2009, that liberal threshold was 300,000 ballons. Between 2010 and then 2011, those model weights continued to put more weight on that weak density dependent hypothesis. In 2011, 87% of the weight was on that one dense weak density dependent model, and the liberal threshold went from 300,000 mallards in 2009 to 725,000 in 2011. At the same time, the threshold to close the season went from 250,000 in 2009 to 675,000 in 2011. Our BPOP number in 2011 was 70,000 above that closure limit.
• 14:34
  So we came really close in 2011.
• 14:37
  Mike Brasher: I didn't realize that. I've never I don't know that I've ever hunted in the Atlantic Flyway. I don't think I have. So I've not been in tune with the annual changes in harvest regulations in the Atlantic Flyway, so that was the specifics of that were certainly lost on me. So when that type of thing happened, it certainly gets the attention and probably is when things got really interesting in those flyway discussions, right?
• 15:03
  Min Wong: Absolutely.
• 15:06
  Mike Brasher: So this is a great place then.
• 15:09
  Pat Devers: Some late nights.
• 15:09
  Mike Brasher: Yeah, I'm sure. So this is a great place to transition to what happened next, and and, you know, we won't go through all the mechanics of it. I don't think the mechanics, the the trial and error of of what all you went through to get to this multi stock approach are that are terribly important, but I certainly wanna touch on the basics of it. So, you know, this declining Mallard population was obviously of concern, as we've talked about, so you began to the Atlantic Flyway began to imagine an alternative way, an alternative basis for setting harvest regulations. How did you get to the idea of a multi stock approach as opposed to, let's say, just using a single species as the basis, the way we've done with Mallards and all the in every flyway up until that point, at least when we're talking about our general frameworks.
• 16:06
  How did you get to a multi stock approach as as opposed to trying to select one of the other species?
• 16:12
  Pat Devers: We keep coming back to this, the same issue going back to to the earliest you know, some of the earliest days of Atlantic Flyway and just that, you know, the birds that make up the hunter's bags are are a little more equal in the Atlantic Flyway than than the other three flyaways or at least the two middle flyaways. Right? And and so there's those discussions that the birds that are important to the Northeast states are different, at least slightly from the Mid Mid Atlantic states. The birds that are being hunted in the Mid Atlantic states are are slightly different than the Northeast and the Southeast, and then Southeast is different from all those. And so that conversation's been going on for for a real long time.
• 16:50
  And and as as we start to see this problem with eastern mallards, that conversation just came back up. Look. This this species isn't representing the birds that we actually hunt and and and where they come from out of Eastern North America. Some of them are coming out of the Boreal of Canada, and some are breeding up and down their lag Flyway. Some are coming out of the Northeast States.
• 17:12
  And so is there a single species that represents that diversity of breeding areas, the type of habitats they're using, where they're being harvested in Atlantic Flyway, how important they are in different areas, and we just couldn't find a single species that represented those dynamics that would allow us to to make a really good recommendation for a general framework that that really represented, you know, the opportunity and the status health of all those different stocks or populations of birds. It's just that been that long running discussion in Atlantic Flyway that is probably held or has been, you know, held in the other flyways too, but I think particularly in the Mid Continent, there there is one species that that you can hang your hat on, not not perfectly, so those conversations go on, but not to the extent that we have in in the Atlantic Flyway. So early on, that just popped its head back up, and people said, what are we gonna do about this? This this we still haven't addressed this issue. And so I think right from the get go when we started saying maybe Eastern Mallet's not working for us anymore, it was we we have to take this issue on head on right now, the the multi stock aspect of it.
• 18:26
  Min Wong: And also to add to what what Pat was just talking about, you know, on the national scene, since the early two thousands, we've really been very interested in this idea of, you know, multiple species management, multi stock management. However, you know, up until when the Atlantic Flyway and the US Fish and Wildlife Service and USGS started really delving into this multi stock problem back in I guess we started in 2012, 2013. You know, we didn't have the technical capacity, the tools to do it in an adaptive framework with an optimization. But I think, you know, necessity was the mother of all invention, and, you know, the situation the Atlantic Flyway was in really necessitated some really, really smart people to spend a lot of time to figure out how we could get this done. You know, again, on the national stage, even back into 2002, you know, folks were were wrestling with this problem of how do you deal with multiple species, multiple stocks that are all subjected to the same harvest?
• 19:40
  Pat Devers: Yeah. Really recognizing that those different breeding populations or stocks as we call them, they have different capacities for harvest. Right? Some some are shorter lived and produce a lot of young every year, and and they have a little higher harvest, and then others are are longer lived birds that produce fewer fewer juveniles every year, so they can't, withstand as much harvest. And as Minh said, even at the national stage across all four flyaways, we've wrestled with this idea of how do you set a general framework that that takes these birds with different harvest capacities but are are subject to the same harvest.
• 20:16
  Mike Brasher: This is part of the conversation that could get a little confusing for for some for some of us because here we're talking about the varying capacity of these different species to sustain harvest pressure. I don't want people to confuse what we're talking about here with these species specific restrictions that a lot of hunters will be familiar with, whether we're talking about black ducks, pintails, redheads, canvasbacks, and and others that may model ducks and others that may fall into that category. I mean, it's the same concept where we have these species, different species across North America that have different reproductive potential and the different capacity to sustain harvest pressure, as you talked about there, Pat. What we're talking about here with multi stock management in the Atlantic Flyway is little different from there. It builds off that idea, but it's this multi stock approach to setting the overarching regulatory framework, that sixty and six or 107, you know, that that season length and bag limit, overarching, you know, total bag limit that we initially talked about in episode one.
• 21:23
  So just this is the is the part where it could get a little confusing, but did I capture that right, guys? Is there anything to clarify, Pat?
• 21:31
  Pat Devers: No. I think that's exactly right. It is the same concept. We're using slightly different tools to try to manage harvest for for species that have different capacities to take that harvest, and you're right. One way is to set the general framework based on a single species and then tweak individuals, and the other is to say, let's let's acknowledge the different capacities across multiple species and use all of that, you know, to to set the general framework.
• 21:58
  That's, yeah, that's exactly right.
• 22:06
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• 22:23
  Mike Brasher: Well, let's skip forward a little bit here, guys, with Multi-Stock management in the Atlantic Flyway. We could delve into the details of what all of those discussions and back and forth look like, all the different analyses that had to be performed, all the different harvest objectives that had to be set and tweaked, and and we we let's not let's not get into those details. I think what we want to do here is sort of talk about the change that occurred. Once you got all the analytical work taken care of, figured out what data was most important, developed whatever models were needed as the basis for this, you were able to fully implement a multi stock harvest management approach for the Atlantic Flyway. So what does it consist of right now?
• 23:09
  For those that may not be familiar, what is the multi stock approach for setting harvest regulations in the Atlantic Flyway?
• 23:16
  Min Wong: So the multi stock decision framework consists of four species, wood ducks, green winged teal, ring necked ducks, and common golden eyes. And we chose those four species for a number of different reasons. First off, that at least teal, wood ducks, ring necks are three of the top four species in harvest consistently across our flyway. And when you look at those four species, their importance, as Pat was alluding to earlier, is throughout the throughout the Atlantic Flyway. You know, golden eyes, our Northern states harvest the golden eyes.
• 23:53
  By and large, wood ducks are taken throughout the flyaway, but certainly much more so in the Mid Atlantic and Southern states. Green winged teal are taken throughout the flyaway, and ring necks, more so the Mid Atlantic and the Southern states. So we wanted to pick species that, you know, really truly represented harvest of our flyway. Secondly, I think just as importantly, we chose species that represented the habitat types that all of our partner states and partners within our states are trying to conserve for waterfowl and for other species. And so, you know, those species and their migrating and wintering habitats really do cover all those habitats that we're trying to to enhance and improve to to, you know, try to attain NAWAMP goals.
• 24:41
  And then the breeding grounds, those species, again, cover a lot of the habitats that, you know, are indicative of the health of the ecosystem. You know? We've got cavity nesters. We've got ground nesters. We've got above water nesters.
• 24:55
  And so all of that kinda comes together to give us a, I think, a little more holistic look at, you know, the ecology and then also the harvest management of all those species. And so that was kinda how we came to to those four species. And then also more importantly as well is that we actually had data for those species, and that is is pretty pretty critical when we're trying to build population models for all four of those species.
• 25:22
  Mike Brasher: Pat, anything to add?
• 25:23
  Pat Devers: No. I I think Minh really covered well the the concept and what we were trying to achieve with with using multiple stocks of species to set the general framework.
• 25:33
  Mike Brasher: Minh, were any other species considered seriously considered as you know, to to be factored into that multi stock approach? Did you consider more than four? Was it just those four? Were any other species considered for, you know, for one of those four than than what you landed on?
• 25:51
  Min Wong: Not really. You know, we we kind of gravitated towards those four fairly quickly, you know, again, just because of their importance to hunters and the hunting culture from north to south in our flyway. They represented the habitats that we are trying to conserve. And importantly as well, we had a reasonable dataset for all four of those species that we could then build those population models models off of.
• 26:19
  Mike Brasher: So I guess what I'll do now is ask you about and, Pat, I'll direct this to you, and I guess this is probably about as detailed as as we'll get, I I think. We've talked about midcontinent Mallards and the decision matrix, you know, whenever we're selecting a liberal or moderate or restrictive or closed framework, you know, package, regulatory, optimal regulatory alternative for a given year, we have this matrix. On one axis is B pop size, midcontinent mallards, on the other is the May pond count. Those are the two key state variables that determine for the Central Mississippi Flyway what the regulatory alternative what the regulation is gonna be for a given year. What does that look like under a multi stock approach?
• 27:09
  What are the key state variables, maybe the technical way to say it, that you look at within within this new way of setting regulations in The Atlantic in the Atlantic Flyway?
• 27:18
  Pat Devers: That matrix becomes more complicated under a multistock framework. Unfortunately, that's that's one of the drawbacks of it. But the way we typically present it in our reports, now you think of it more as a almost like a decision tree. And so the important parameters or states that you're looking at is the abundance of each of those four species. And so kinda given their weights in any given year, I'll come down and ask you, you know, is the abundance of ring necks above a certain level?
• 27:50
  Yes or no? And if it's yes, you go down another tree and say, okay. Now what is the abundance of wood ducks? Is it above a certain number or not? And you say yes, and it goes down and it kinda walk you through then golden eyes and then green winged teal or something like that.
• 28:05
  And so you follow that decision tree, and that's where you're landing on your your optimal decision for that year given the the abundance of all four species. So it it is a more complex kind of a matrix that you have to look at. Unfortunately, that's that's just the way it's gonna work.
• 28:23
  Mike Brasher: So, Pat, naturally, I want to ask you, are each of these species weighted equally in that decision tree, or do they differ, and does that relative weight change over time? How does all that work?
• 28:35
  Pat Devers: Yeah. That's a great question. The weight is not equal across all four species, and Minh's probably going to to jump in with maybe some more details on it, but they are they are weighted relative to to their kinda total abundance or contribution to the bag and their importance in different regions. Right? So I think Minh can explain this better, but we are trying to capture how much they contribute to the overall harvest in Atlantic Flyway and then how how kinda culturally they might be important in different regions.
• 29:05
  So, yeah, I'll ask Minh to explain that a little bit better.
• 29:08
  Min Wong: Yeah. Sure. So when we were constructing this framework, we wanted to try as as best as we could at the time to try to incorporate some metric of, you know, hunters and, as Pat was saying, you know, the culture of hunting in in the various regions of the flyway, and then, again, the importance of these species to those hunters. And so each species is is weighted by their overall harvest contribution to that region relative to the entire flyway harvest, and then all of that by region, by species, is then weighted by the number of hundred days that are expended in each region. And so, really, the thought at the time and still is is that, you know, hey.
• 29:53
  If we're doing a good job protecting habitats, we're growing ducks, and if we have decent duck numbers, hunters are happy, they're spending more time out in the field, that is kind of a metric of our success of this framework. And so that's how we weight those species. And, actually, this coming year will be the fifth year of our implementation of Multi-Stock, and we will as we agreed upon when we first implemented it, we will be going back and reweighting those species after five years of data to see how things have changed and then seeing how that changes the optimization.
• 30:33
  Mike Brasher: You answered the question that I was gonna ask next, which is when did this when was this implemented, but but are you it's approaching five years. Give me the year on that. What was it? '17 or '18? What was the first year when it was it was when it became the basis for the regulation?
• 30:50
  Min Wong: 2018 was when the Atlantic Flyway Council and the and US Fish and Wildlife Service adopted Multi-Stock. So that was for the twenty nineteen, twenty twenty hunting season.
• 31:01
  Mike Brasher: Okay. So this is now only the third year in which we've had regulations based on that multi stock approach, if I'm doing my math correctly, which I think I am. Yeah. Yep. So so three years.
• 31:15
  Alright. Well, for those that may not be familiar, may not be looking towards regulations in Atlantic Flyway very often, what what have those regulatory packages been each of the last three years? Were they were they liberal in each case?
• 31:28
  Pat Devers: They were. Yes.
• 31:29
  Mike Brasher: And so this naturally leads to a question about, well, what about Mallards? Now that we have the multi stock management, what are we doing to set mallard bag limits?
• 31:41
  Pat Devers: Yeah. So when the the decision is make to make the switch to multi stock, you know, obviously, there's still a great deal of concern about the status of mallards, a lot of interest. It still is an important part of the hunter's bag, and so we needed some way to to establish regulations, but we wanted we knew that in the long term, we wanted to dive in more into what's going on with mallards and and what is the sustainable harvest into the future. So we conducted a, what's called a potential take level analysis of Mallards and said, okay. We need to buy some time to to dig in the data and do some research and and and rethink this harvest strategy at Mallard.
• 32:19
  So that potential take level really kinda told us, like, what do we think is a sustainable bag limit daily bag limit, assuming that we're gonna be in a a sixty day season Atlantic Flyway, the most liberal season. And we'll we'll try to get, you know, the most liberal bag limit we can on mallets that we think is sustainable and and allow us to to rethink mallet harvest management. So we did that at the same time we put multi stock, in place. And through that analysis, we determined that, you know, a two bird daily bag on mallards under a sixty sixty day season was sustainable and that we could set it there and and then dive into the details. And we've been doing that ever since.
• 33:00
  As Minh referenced earlier, there's been we've the Atlantic Flyway is spearheading of very large studies that's kicking off this winter to really try to get at breeding ecology and mallards, trying to find out what's going on. Is it the number of young being produced? That's a problem. At the same time, the Atlantic Flyway Division of Migatory Bird Management, Atlantic and the Atlantic Flyway Council, so I mean, Flyway Office, have been working together to develop a new harvest strategy for Mallard. So we basically broken down that Eastern Mallard strategy.
• 33:33
  We worked all the analysis and the models, kinda introduced the most current statistical approaches we can and have been working through a new harvest strategy that, I think the Atlantic Flyway Council will be taken under consideration, perhaps even as early as this winter. And our hope is that new strategy would then allow us to set the the daily bag limit, that could change depending on if mallards start to rebound. We could go beyond something beyond a tube tube or bag. If they come down, we'd go back down to to moderate or restrictive packages. So it's what we would call a state dependent strategy that allow us to potentially increase the bat bag limit if populations rebound or implement appropriate restrictive bag limits if the population declines in the future.
• 34:22
  Mike Brasher: Pat, thank you for that that answer. I I couldn't get through the couldn't get through this without asking about the regulations for Eastern Mallards. I mean, it's a it's a logical question. I know it's on the minds of of a lot of people right now. We hear about it within Ducks Unlimited.
• 34:37
  We tell them what we what we can. We tell them what we know. Ultimately, those decisions are up to to you all, you and the feds and and state biologists and and partners, and so I just wanna make sure I ask that question, so I appreciate that response. I wanna go back to our more focused discussion on the multi stock approach now, and I have a couple of final questions here as we start to close this out. We've we've covered most of the details that that I think are appropriate here, but, you know, one, from a practical standpoint, this has been implemented only for a short number of years, it depends heavily on breeding population estimates for each of these four species, and so there's probably not a worse time for the global pandemic to have kinda, you know, had such a significant effect on our ability to collect data that's important for this type of regulation setting process.
• 35:31
  I know it's been challenging not being able to conduct a full complement of surveys for each of the last two years, but I I know you've you've been able to navigate that probably through much of the same process that we have for other stocks of birds and and regulations and other flyaways, but were there any other unique aspects of the of the data upon which these decisions depended that were particularly challenging or particularly troublesome from a global pandemic and sort of COVID perspective and the suspending of data collection efforts in some cases?
• 36:07
  Min Wong: I would say that, you know, thankfully, we had a good dataset and a time series that we could use to inform, you know, the the population models that we're able to then predict what we likely would have have seen had we had a survey. And then with the case with wood ducks, we only lost one year of data. So our wood duck population estimate is based on the the Northeast Plot Survey data from The States and then also the breeding bird survey data that goes across the entire Eastern Seaboard, the Atlantic Flyway. And so we only lost one year of data for for that survey. So that was that was definitely very helpful to make sure that we didn't have as much uncertainty as to what exactly that population level was at.
• 36:52
  But, again, the key to to missing a year or two data is to to have the monitoring data on the back end that can help inform those predictions.
• 37:01
  Mike Brasher: What about the hunter reaction to the multi stock approach? A lot of hunters probably don't pay much attention to the specifics of how regulations are set kinda in the background. They're concerned about what the season is. Is it a liberal, moderate, restrictive? What the individual bag limits are.
• 37:21
  But to the extent that it may have changed something for hunters or may have required them to know something a bit different about harvest regulations within Atlantic Flyway, what's been the reaction and reception of the Multi-Stock approach? Minh, do you have some perspective on that?
• 37:37
  Min Wong: Yeah, I guess a little bit. We put together a couple informational pamphlets and other things that people were that states were putting into their hunting guides to alert folks that we were changing the way we did regs. And when I've heard of some of the feedback I've gotten in our small state, you know, that was helpful. I would say, though, that I I think that a large majority of our hunters don't understand the annual process nor do they, I think, really care to understand the annual process as long as you were saying as you were saying, you know, they have a liberal season, or if they have a moderate season, it makes sense that they have a moderate season. But I do think that the folks that do keep track of how things are done feel that this is a much better way of doing business than what we had before.
• 38:31
  Mike Brasher: I appreciate that, man. We're going to move close to wrapping this up here. We've covered most of what I wanted to with regard to the multi stock management and how it came about, what it is, how it now is responsible for setting harvest regulations in the Atlantic Flyway. There's a number of other questions that I could ask, but in the interest of brevity, we're going to start closing this out. I know there's a few other things on the back end of this that I want to give you guys an opportunity to talk about.
• 38:58
  But before I do, I have to ask, and we can maybe have a little bit of fun with this, oftentimes, we hear about some of this tension and late nights and arguments between between the states and the feds with regard to the setting of harvest regulations, and and I kinda have to imagine that whenever you're going through one of these significant changes, that might have been a few tense moments or maybe tense discussions. A lot of it might depend on the personalities in the room. So not not being very familiar with a lot all the members of the Atlantic Flyway, I'm not sure what that would have looked like. But, yeah, any just lighthearted humor or otherwise, any tense moments or any at any or even any serious moments where you thought this might not happen?
• 39:44
  Min Wong: I guess I'll preface everything by saying that, you know, the core group of us who worked on this for, God, four or five years, and I think there were five of us or so, we're all good friends professionally and personally, And so, you know, we all knew that we needed to get this done. There was no, oh, we can't get it done. There you know, the alternative was was, you know, really not an alternative we could go go down that road. I don't I wanna say that there really were not any times where, you know, back to, like, the old black duck days where there were, you know, pounding on tables and stuff like that, we we never had any of those moments. You know, just one that sticks in my mind was I think we were in Portland, Oregon, and it was in the evening.
• 40:31
  We were talking about some aspect of of of Multi-Stock or or the decisions that would feed into MultiStock. And, you know, there was a couple of us that were kinda putting out their chests and and talking about posturing, and it got a little heated then. The other three of us were kinda snickering in the background just because it was it was kinda silly. But, yeah, no, we had a task to accomplish, and, you know, we put our heads to the grindstone and made it happen.
• 41:03
  Mike Brasher: I commend you and every other member of committee. I had peripherally heard about what was going on in the Atlantic Flyway for a number of years, not not interacting with that group. I didn't know the specifics of it, but I could only imagine some of the challenges that would be involved in it, and so I was really happy to hear about the continued progress. And, I mean, just from a population management standpoint, our ability to learn more and advance our understanding of population demographic demographics and to capture all of the things that you guys spoke about in terms of how to set regulations that accurately capture the demographic side of things, as well as the cultural side of our hunter population. I think it's a huge step forward.
• 41:47
  Appreciate all the work that the Atlantic Flyway put into this. In the vein of sorta continually moving forward, I want to give you guys an opportunity as two members of the Harvest Management Working Group, an opportunity to speak to our listeners about any and share with our listeners anything that may be forthcoming within the waterfowl management arena. Are there any other major changes? Any other major issues that are starting to crop up that that would be worth talking about here?
• 42:18
  Pat Devers: Yeah. I think I think there's a couple issues that maybe your listeners have know about to some degree that that are worth pointing out. I mean, first, the the Harvest Management Working Group, the the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the four Flyway Councils, and USGS have have been and continue to work on on Northern pintail harvest strategy. That's an important issue, for for a lot of hunters out there, and and we're working hard to to revise that strategy. Think real hard about some of these same issues of of what do the hunters want and out of pintail harvest management and and how do we connect that with the data we have and the biological consideration.
• 42:56
  So that still is a high priority for us to wrap up here as soon as we can. The other big issue, we're we're really kinda sitting back as a a working group and trying to envision what duck harvest management looks like over the next ten to fifteen years. You know, there are a lot of things changing amongst waterfowl harvest management. You know, we don't have as many hunters as they did in the past. That's been a concern, of course, with state agencies for for several years now, and we're thinking about what does that mean and how do what is our role in it?
• 43:28
  What what is the role of, establishing regulations every year? What can we do differently to ensure that waterfowl harvest management is still an important thing in the next ten, fifteen years, and we're serving our constituency. So that that's a a big issue we're talking about now. We don't really have our arms around that as you can imagine. I mean, that's that's a big question, but that will be taken up a lot of our our time, I think, over the next several years.
• 43:54
  And then, of course, you know, we have what may be emerging drought conditions in the Prairie Prairie Pothole region, and and that's gonna be an issue that we have to keep an eye on and and respond to appropriately. But I I think those are probably the biggest issue as as a waterfowl harvest management community we're we're wrestling with right now. How about you, Minh?
• 44:13
  Min Wong: Yeah. No. I think on the big picture, that's that's exactly hit the nail on the head. You know, we've we're hopefully coming close to to finalizing the revision of the of the pintail harvest strategy, and then we've got this big, big thing in front of us. You know, where what exactly is the future of of duck harvest management in the next ten or fifteen years?
• 44:34
  Shrinking budgets at both the state and federal level, As Pat was saying, a slow decline of of waterfowl hunters over the last thirty years. And so where where do we fit in in in ten or fifteen years for sure? Just quickly from a state perspective, you know, harvest management only plays a, you know, a big role, but not the only role in, you know, trying to recruit, retain, and reactivate hunters. And, you know, given shrinking budgets in many of our states, it's it's getting increasingly difficult to address some of the other issues that, you know, might affect participation such as access and even such, you know, elementary things as habitat improvement and enhancement. And so, you know, again, I think the next ten or fifteen years at both the local and the national level are gonna be really telling as to where we go as a waterfowl community.
• 45:37
  We really need to to rethink and maybe in some ways reinvent how we how we do things.
• 45:45
  Mike Brasher: All great topics, all great comments, and we certainly look forward to seeing how some of those things play out here over the over the next few years. Definitely interested in seeing how the the the Pintel Harvest Regulation review unfolds and and what comes out of that. I can already pencil that in somewhere along the way as a future podcast episode to figure out what all that means and and and how that what we need to take away from that. Pat, I'll also say that I think your I like your optimism when you say we have a I think you might have said potentially a drought developing in the Prairies. I believe Palmer Drought Severity Index maps would tell us that we have been in it for about a year now.
• 46:29
  Min Wong: So
• 46:29
  Pat Devers: Yeah. That's that's that's very true. Very true.
• 46:33
  Mike Brasher: That's been a great conversation, guys. I appreciate your time. I'll also take a a moment to pass along a thank you to every other member of the Atlantic Flyway Council and technical committee. You two are are are just representatives of the different groups that that were all involved in this process. That includes the Harvest Management Working Group, which involves individuals from other flyways, but each of the states in the Atlantic Flyway, definitely the US Fish and Wildlife Service, and any others that that we need to to mention here, Pat and me and and Minh, I'm not as familiar with who all was involved in this conversation.
• 47:12
  I'm confident that I've covered some of the important ones there with those statements, but who else would we need to recognize for their service here?
• 47:19
  Pat Devers: There are a few people to acknowledge. First would be Paul Padding, who was my predecessor's Atlantic Flyway representative. He was very critical in in all of this work and helping that, come together. Along those lines is Guthrie Zimmerman, who is, was an assessment biologist in the branch of what what is now the branch of assessment decision support. He did most of the heavy lifting on the technical aspect along with with Minh and a few others.
• 47:48
  You know, Scott Boomer always provides great insights and reviews of of these harvest strategies. And then Fred Johnson was key. He is actually at the time, he was with the USGS, and he has been thinking about this multi stock issue, as Minh said, going back to the early two thousands, if not earlier than that. So those are a few people we need to recognize. And, Minh, if there's anyone else I I've left off.
• 48:12
  Min Wong: Yeah. From from the actual putting together this decision framework, I think we've covered it. But, you know, along the way, the support of our partners with DU, our partners at Delta Warfowl as well, who were, you know, kinda pushing pushing everybody to to make sure this got done. And so, again, I think that the support from the overall community has been instrumental in in making sure this came to reality.
• 48:36
  Mike Brasher: And all the hunters that continue to provide the valuable data that feed a lot of these models and and are one of the reasons why we do this. I try to look for every opportunity to recognize the contributions that our hunters make to the data that we use in so many of these models and enabling this, the the smart decision making that that you all are are carrying out. So thank you guys for every aspect of this, for your time today, for your service to the migratory bird community, to the waterfowl community. It's great to catch up with you, and thanks so much for sharing your time on a Friday afternoon, late in the day on a Friday afternoon. So now we can go enjoy the weekend, fellas.
• 49:12
  Thank you all.
• 49:13
  Min Wong: Absolutely. Thank you, Mike.
• 49:14
  Pat Devers: Thank you, Mike.
• 49:15
  Mike Brasher: A very special thanks to our guest on today's episode, doctor Man Wong with the Connecticut Department of Energy Environmental Protection, and doctor Pat Devers with the US Fish and Wildlife Service Division of Migratory Bird Management. We greatly appreciate their time and and expertise here on this topic. As always, we thank our producer, Chris Isaac, who does a fantastic job with these episodes. To you, the listener, we thank you for your time and spending with us and for your support of wetlands and waterfowl conservation.
• 49:42
  VO: Thank you for listening to the DU Podcast, also proudly sponsored by Bird Dog Whiskey and Cocktails. Whether you're winding down with your best friend or celebrating with your favorite crew, Bird Dog brings award winning flavor to every moment. Enjoy responsibly. Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe to the show and visit ducks.org/dupodcast. Opinions expressed by guests do not necessarily reflect those of Ducks Unlimited.
• 50:07
  Until next time, stay tuned to the Ducks.