Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / BlackRock Shows Disproportionately Big Passive Gun Ownership: Balchunas
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.
- 0:08Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day we
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- 0:20Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Following
- 0:33Speaker 1: the latest school shooting in Florida, there has been a
- 0:36Speaker 1: spotlight on who owns the shares of the world's biggest gunmakers,
- 0:41Speaker 1: and it turns out, perhaps not surprisingly, it is the
- 0:45Speaker 1: largest asset managers that have a lot of passive funds,
- 0:49Speaker 1: or funds that seek only to track indexes that have
- 0:52Speaker 1: gained a ton of assets in the past few years.
- 0:55Speaker 1: Here to talk about the implications of this, Eric Beltunus,
- 0:57Speaker 1: who is an expert in everything and anything related to funds,
- 1:01Speaker 1: but he specializes in E t F Senior et F
- 1:03Speaker 1: analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and he happens to be here
- 1:06Speaker 1: in New York today in our leven three studios. Eric,
- 1:09Speaker 1: let's start with how significant is passive ownership of gun
- 1:15Speaker 1: related shares? Okay, so I crunched the numbers before coming
- 1:19Speaker 1: on air today and I will have a note coming
- 1:21Speaker 1: out thank you for the inspiration. Um. Yeah, we're looking
- 1:24Speaker 1: at passive ownership. Let's say if the SMP in general
- 1:28Speaker 1: is about right, that's the average passive ownership. It's about
- 1:32Speaker 1: double for some gunstocks. So r g R right, that's
- 1:36Speaker 1: owned by passive funds. AO b C, which is the
- 1:39Speaker 1: one everybody's really honing in on, is owned by passive funds.
- 1:44Speaker 1: VISTA vs. T O is the ticker that one is
- 1:47Speaker 1: owned by passive, and then half of that is ETF.
- 1:50Speaker 1: Remember passive is index funds and ETFs combined. So that's
- 1:54Speaker 1: where you get. So we're looking at a quarter to
- 1:56Speaker 1: a third of these big gun stocks are owned by
- 1:59Speaker 1: path of funds. Why why do they own Why do
- 2:02Speaker 1: passive funds own so much more of these gunstocks than
- 2:05Speaker 1: they do other stocks. Here's why these gunstocks aren't that big. Right,
- 2:08Speaker 1: when you're a mid cap, small cap sized stock, you
- 2:12Speaker 1: end up getting into a lot of e t s.
- 2:14Speaker 1: Those are the ones that usually have bigger passive ownership
- 2:16Speaker 1: than say like Apple. Here's why. So like black Rock,
- 2:19Speaker 1: for example, you look at American outdoor brands, that's the
- 2:23Speaker 1: one everybody seems to be focusing on. Black Rock owns
- 2:25Speaker 1: eleven percent of that company, It's by far the biggest owner.
- 2:28Speaker 1: Why half of that ownership comes from one tick or
- 2:31Speaker 1: I t A, which is the Aerospace and Defense ETF,
- 2:34Speaker 1: which is now a six billion dollar et F. Why Well,
- 2:37Speaker 1: because it's crushing the SNP. It's up like thirty five
- 2:40Speaker 1: in the past year, it's doubled in size, and term's
- 2:42Speaker 1: gotten flows and the asset prices have gone up, which
- 2:45Speaker 1: begs are really a question for black Rock. You have
- 2:47Speaker 1: an aerospace and defense ETF, people would buy that. I'm
- 2:50Speaker 1: assuming hoping you include those companies. Are you going to
- 2:53Speaker 1: kick out or try to get the index to kick
- 2:55Speaker 1: out a gunmaker from an aerospace and defense ETF. This
- 2:59Speaker 1: is a conundral them that Larry Fink will have to
- 3:01Speaker 1: figure out. I think that you connected that just perfectly
- 3:05Speaker 1: to where I'm going next to me, Because black Rock
- 3:07Speaker 1: is saying they're going to engage with gunmakers. What can
- 3:11Speaker 1: black Rock and other passive managers like Vanguard or you know, Fidelity,
- 3:16Speaker 1: what can they do if they really aren't going to
- 3:19Speaker 1: kick a name out of an e t F. They can't.
- 3:23Speaker 1: What can they do? Yeah, they are married they cannot
- 3:26Speaker 1: get divorced. It's like the old days. We're not getting divorced.
- 3:29Speaker 1: We're gonna stay married. Um, so look, you're gonna have
- 3:32Speaker 1: a black Rock. I'm a big fan of setting the tone.
- 3:34Speaker 1: Larry Fink's got a big megaphone, right, so just saying
- 3:38Speaker 1: things out loud, getting people like us to talk about it.
- 3:41Speaker 1: This helps move the needle in a public relations aspect.
- 3:44Speaker 1: Does it do anything to the ownership of the stocks
- 3:47Speaker 1: and the e T F s? No? Will it? Maybe
- 3:50Speaker 1: will these companies maybe look to imple implement some programs.
- 3:53Speaker 1: Maybe the bigger thing they can do and what they
- 3:56Speaker 1: have done in the past. There was a big issue
- 3:58Speaker 1: with dual class shares that where company basically once your
- 4:02Speaker 1: money but not your vote. Where they you know, the
- 4:03Speaker 1: tech companies do it. Black Rock and Vanguard got the
- 4:07Speaker 1: SMP SMP people to basically ban dual share classes going forward,
- 4:11Speaker 1: so Snap will never be in the SMP five hundred
- 4:13Speaker 1: because of that. That was a big win and that
- 4:16Speaker 1: directly affects a company like Snap and other companies moving forward.
- 4:20Speaker 1: If they were to want to exclude gunmakers from the
- 4:23Speaker 1: big indexes, they that would be the way to really
- 4:26Speaker 1: do it. However, then you've got Larry Fink making political
- 4:30Speaker 1: decisions for you, and that then is that right? Then
- 4:33Speaker 1: then you're gonna have that's you know, people worry about
- 4:35Speaker 1: passive so making the capital markets turn into like socialism.
- 4:39Speaker 1: This seems to be a slippery slope going that direction. Right. Well,
- 4:42Speaker 1: that's that's what I was going to ask. You know,
- 4:44Speaker 1: how political can they go? And and you know, do
- 4:47Speaker 1: we have any inclination of what investors really want? I mean,
- 4:51Speaker 1: do most investors care? Right? So? I think they care.
- 4:54Speaker 1: There are options for them, Like there's a host of
- 4:56Speaker 1: e s g ts that purposely have come along and
- 4:58Speaker 1: say we can either give stocks that are good for
- 5:01Speaker 1: E s G or will eliminate government. They need a
- 5:05Speaker 1: new acronym that that's part of the problem that they
- 5:07Speaker 1: haven't been a hit. I think the acronym is needs work. Well.
- 5:11Speaker 1: Impact investing is a big one. I just think they
- 5:13Speaker 1: should call liberal values because that's who they're appealing to anyway. Um,
- 5:17Speaker 1: you know there's an e t F that's um the
- 5:19Speaker 1: GOP stock track or et F that will that will
- 5:22Speaker 1: hold a bunch of gunstocks. You also have other types
- 5:25Speaker 1: of e t fs that purposely hold those like industrial
- 5:27Speaker 1: ct f s. That's fine, you go there for those.
- 5:30Speaker 1: You can go to E s G if you don't
- 5:31Speaker 1: want them. The question is this middle ground of like
- 5:33Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred, and that's where do you want
- 5:37Speaker 1: Vanguard and and black Rock to basically take up their issues.
- 5:41Speaker 1: My view on this personally is that when you hire
- 5:44Speaker 1: a passive manager, I think what you really want them
- 5:46Speaker 1: to do is just make sure that the uh sort
- 5:49Speaker 1: of the boundaries and the rules are really set. You
- 5:52Speaker 1: have an independent board, you're pushing for good E s
- 5:55Speaker 1: G policies, But do you do you take up an
- 5:58Speaker 1: issue that's important just to that person and force a
- 6:01Speaker 1: company out of an index. I probably, I don't know
- 6:04Speaker 1: if that will happen, but having his voice in there
- 6:06Speaker 1: definitely affects the public relation aspect of this entire issue.
- 6:10Speaker 1: Although he has to be careful because, as you said,
- 6:12Speaker 1: a lot of people are worried the E t F
- 6:13Speaker 1: so sort of a slippery slope to socialism. So if
- 6:16Speaker 1: he starts weighing in on big political and politically polarizing issues, uh,
- 6:21Speaker 1: then he risks some political interference. Thank you so much.
- 6:25Speaker 1: Eric Belchin is always enlightening. Eric Balcin a senior E
- 6:27Speaker 1: T F analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and black Rock is
- 6:31Speaker 1: saying that they will engage with gunmakers that they own
- 6:35Speaker 1: the shares for after the Florida shooting. So it is
- 6:51Speaker 1: that time we take a look at the municipal bond
- 6:53Speaker 1: market and it's a particularly interesting time to do so.
- 6:56Speaker 1: Borrowing costs are going up. What does this mean for
- 7:00Speaker 1: states and local governments that are looking to borrow money?
- 7:03Speaker 1: And Eric Kazatski is joining us right now, easy municipal
- 7:06Speaker 1: bond strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. Thank you so much for
- 7:09Speaker 1: joining us. Eric, Can you just give us the big
- 7:12Speaker 1: picture so far this year? What have we seen a
- 7:15Speaker 1: municipal bond markets and what does it mean uh for
- 7:18Speaker 1: states and local governments? Sure, good morning, Thanks for having me.
- 7:22Speaker 1: So we put out a note a couple of weeks
- 7:24Speaker 1: ago and we equated the mini market this year to
- 7:27Speaker 1: the upside down from stranger things. You know, it's it's
- 7:30Speaker 1: almost been a confluence of events where nothing is behaving
- 7:32Speaker 1: as it really should from an intuitive standpoint. Um, we've
- 7:36Speaker 1: had consistent flows into the sector this year. We're almost
- 7:39Speaker 1: up nine nine and a half billion dollars um and
- 7:42Speaker 1: yet we're looking at losses UM across the board in
- 7:45Speaker 1: the indicase, and that's more a function of us just
- 7:48Speaker 1: following where treasuries have been on a rate basis. But
- 7:51Speaker 1: you know, your original question was what does it mean
- 7:52Speaker 1: for state and local governments? It means the cost of
- 7:55Speaker 1: borrowing is going up as rates are taking higher. So
- 7:59Speaker 1: it's I think that in your note you said about
- 8:01Speaker 1: half percent higher the yields are on a musable bonds
- 8:05Speaker 1: right now. And this is interesting because there has been
- 8:08Speaker 1: such a flood of cash into municipal bond funds. Um.
- 8:11Speaker 1: Is this enough to derail any financing plans by any
- 8:16Speaker 1: local governments? Not that we're hearing. I mean, pipelines as
- 8:20Speaker 1: far as public finance are are still pretty thin right now. UM.
- 8:24Speaker 1: But I think that borrowers they need to borrow, I
- 8:26Speaker 1: mean on a on a net basis. The barn and
- 8:29Speaker 1: cross are still low. When you look across historical rates
- 8:31Speaker 1: over the last twenty thirty years, UM, they just look
- 8:35Speaker 1: higher compared to the last let's say twenty four months. UM.
- 8:39Speaker 1: But you know that goes both ways. You know, for
- 8:41Speaker 1: people who have cash on the sidelines are looking to
- 8:43Speaker 1: enter the market. Um. You know there are some decent
- 8:46Speaker 1: entry points right now because they can take advantage of
- 8:48Speaker 1: higher rates. All right, So what are you focusing on
- 8:50Speaker 1: is a possible good entry point. I mean, we're looking
- 8:54Speaker 1: right now at ratios and double A and single A
- 8:56Speaker 1: rating classes compared to like graded corporates, and so you
- 9:00Speaker 1: get further out the YO curve in like ten thirty years, Um,
- 9:03Speaker 1: you can actually pick up some decent spread over those. Um.
- 9:07Speaker 1: We're seeing that in both revenue and geo bonds, um.
- 9:10Speaker 1: You know. And what we do is we compare the
- 9:11Speaker 1: ratios of the tax exemple rates to the actual corporate,
- 9:16Speaker 1: just like buyer would deal if they're evaluating tax exemptly
- 9:19Speaker 1: inssible to treasury um, you know, just to sort of
- 9:22Speaker 1: lease as a litmus test of you know, are they cheap?
- 9:24Speaker 1: Are they rich? And most of the ratios that we're
- 9:26Speaker 1: looking at her above their fifty two week averages. UM.
- 9:30Speaker 1: You know. One thing that I'm struck by as you
- 9:32Speaker 1: talk is that you're saying there is a flood of
- 9:34Speaker 1: money coming in from investors. There isn't that much issuance
- 9:39Speaker 1: from local governments, and yet still yields are rising. That
- 9:44Speaker 1: seems odd and it seems like a red flag. Can
- 9:47Speaker 1: you speak to that. Yeah, I mean yields are rising
- 9:50Speaker 1: to a much lesser degree than where treasury rates are going. UM.
- 9:54Speaker 1: And we've seen this particularly in the short end of
- 9:56Speaker 1: the curve. And you know, in my opinion, that's where
- 9:58Speaker 1: the investors are sort of be the rotating out of
- 10:00Speaker 1: long duration bonds or they're sort of finding out in
- 10:03Speaker 1: that short area of the curve. You know, just with
- 10:05Speaker 1: all this interest rate uncertainty. So you've seen rates you
- 10:09Speaker 1: really sort of take off in the two year treasury
- 10:11Speaker 1: and demand has been so high in the muni sector
- 10:14Speaker 1: that if you sort of look at where rates have
- 10:15Speaker 1: been in a two year space, they've been fairly flat.
- 10:18Speaker 1: Over the last let's say two three weeks, so UM,
- 10:21Speaker 1: the ratios have ticked down UM. And so you've seen
- 10:25Speaker 1: that reflective and spun flows as well as some of
- 10:27Speaker 1: the money market funds have seen a nice uptick in
- 10:30Speaker 1: cash coming in. You know, I'm struck by the end
- 10:33Speaker 1: of last year when people were talking about how are
- 10:37Speaker 1: actually the year before, the end of the year before,
- 10:39Speaker 1: and people are saying, well, you know, tax reform is
- 10:41Speaker 1: going to come and it's going to cut taxes on people,
- 10:44Speaker 1: and then they're not going to want to buy municipal
- 10:45Speaker 1: bonds because that a lot of people go into this
- 10:49Speaker 1: debt for the tax benefit. And I'm wondering what happened
- 10:54Speaker 1: to that narrative, because we did get a taxed, we
- 10:55Speaker 1: did get a tax overall. Yeah, I mean, I think
- 10:57Speaker 1: on the margin for individual and ushers, the tickdown in
- 11:01Speaker 1: top tax straight from thirty nine point six to thirty
- 11:03Speaker 1: seven percent UM. I don't want to say it was
- 11:05Speaker 1: in nothing burger, but you know, based on the cash
- 11:08Speaker 1: is coming in, it didn't really seem to deter the
- 11:10Speaker 1: investor appetite UM. And and there's still benefit there when
- 11:13Speaker 1: you look across some other asset classes and that you know,
- 11:16Speaker 1: coming in and buying meanings UM on a comparative basis.
- 11:19Speaker 1: So I think that the biggest change we've seen from
- 11:22Speaker 1: a tax reform basis is just the dearth of supply
- 11:25Speaker 1: that we have right now. We pulled so much supply
- 11:27Speaker 1: into seen based on the fear factor that we didn't
- 11:31Speaker 1: know what was going to happen with the final version
- 11:33Speaker 1: of tax reform, and now the market, which is a
- 11:36Speaker 1: supply drive, the market is sitting around looking for where
- 11:39Speaker 1: that supply is going to come from. Now, so, uh,
- 11:42Speaker 1: just a real quick do anyone care anymore about the
- 11:45Speaker 1: pension deficits? I do? Good, I just want to, I mean, honestly,
- 11:51Speaker 1: there is a tweet by a former Cowper's board member
- 11:54Speaker 1: basically saying that Cowper's is heading towards insolvency. CalPERS the
- 11:57Speaker 1: biggest public pension plan. You care about this? Of course
- 12:02Speaker 1: we do, UM and one of the things we look at, obviously,
- 12:05Speaker 1: when we looked at UM, the individual credit ratios of
- 12:08Speaker 1: a bar where is one of the things we look
- 12:09Speaker 1: at is obviously they're their leverage ratios and pensions are
- 12:12Speaker 1: one of the things that factors into that. UM. I
- 12:15Speaker 1: think California has some issues coming up as far as
- 12:17Speaker 1: some some court cases which UM, depending on the outcome,
- 12:20Speaker 1: and I'm certainly not a legal expert. UM, you know,
- 12:22Speaker 1: might have ratifications across pension plans, you know, across the US.
- 12:42Speaker 1: We are listening to President Trump. He is speaking at
- 12:45Speaker 1: the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland. His speech sounds
- 12:51Speaker 1: like it is sounding a lot of the notes that
- 12:54Speaker 1: he sounded during his campaign. Talked about coming through with
- 12:58Speaker 1: a lot of his campaign prom us. Is one of
- 13:01Speaker 1: his comments that drew the most applause was when he
- 13:04Speaker 1: asked the crowd, which would you rather, tax cuts or
- 13:06Speaker 1: the Second Amendment? Uh, And they seem to cheer for
- 13:10Speaker 1: the Second Amendment and say they take away the Second Amendment,
- 13:13Speaker 1: which we will not allow to happen again. A standing
- 13:16Speaker 1: ovation right now. I want to bring in to Lou Oloronipa,
- 13:19Speaker 1: our White House correspondent for Bloomberg, to Lou what stood
- 13:23Speaker 1: out to you the most so far with the speech? Well,
- 13:26Speaker 1: it's how much the president is comfortable and willing to
- 13:29Speaker 1: go off script when he's in a friendly environment. That
- 13:31Speaker 1: the president has very low poll numbers, but when he
- 13:34Speaker 1: gets in front of his most ardent supporters and the
- 13:37Speaker 1: conservative movement, he really lets loose and he talked about
- 13:40Speaker 1: a number of things that were red meat for the base.
- 13:43Speaker 1: Talked about the national anthem, talked about the Second Amendment
- 13:46Speaker 1: and how you know, beating Hillary Clinton and helped to
- 13:49Speaker 1: save the Second Amendment from being eliminated. The president is
- 13:53Speaker 1: really reverting to a lot of his old ways. You're
- 13:55Speaker 1: hearing a lot of the stories that he told on
- 13:56Speaker 1: the campaign trail and shortly after winning the presidency, even
- 13:59Speaker 1: talking about, uh, the Yellow Electoral College versus a popular vote.
- 14:03Speaker 1: So we're not really seeing a president that has changed
- 14:07Speaker 1: very much and really grown into the presidency. We're seeing, uh,
- 14:10Speaker 1: the vintage Donald Trump that we've long talked about and
- 14:14Speaker 1: and and seen on the on the on the you know,
- 14:16Speaker 1: on the world stage. He hasn't really changed very much.
- 14:18Speaker 1: It seems like he's very much doubling down on a
- 14:20Speaker 1: lot of the policies and strategies that he's used in
- 14:23Speaker 1: the past. Uh. And this gun debates, he's recently talking about,
- 14:28Speaker 1: you know, wanting to arm more teachers and get rid
- 14:30Speaker 1: of gun free zones. He's really talking about it in
- 14:32Speaker 1: a way that it's more plaudible to his base. He's
- 14:35Speaker 1: not talking about the gun control measures that he wants
- 14:37Speaker 1: to implement, including, you know, raising the age first, you know,
- 14:41Speaker 1: the purchase of some firearms from eighteen to twenty one,
- 14:44Speaker 1: expanding background checks and even taking on mental illnesses and
- 14:47Speaker 1: maybe making it harder for some people, uh to get
- 14:51Speaker 1: to get guns. Can you give us a sense of
- 14:53Speaker 1: who is at SPACK? I mean, who is the audience there?
- 14:58Speaker 1: These are very servatives, activists, members, a lot of young people, uh,
- 15:04Speaker 1: people who are from the right wing of the party.
- 15:06Speaker 1: So members of the House Freedom Caucus that would be
- 15:08Speaker 1: very at home among this crowd. These are people who
- 15:12Speaker 1: like the red meat that the president throws out. They're
- 15:14Speaker 1: very active on social media and and they want to
- 15:18Speaker 1: you know, sort of the Donald Trump from the campaign
- 15:20Speaker 1: trail who talked about building the wall and you heard
- 15:22Speaker 1: the pants of block her up during the speech. So
- 15:24Speaker 1: these are the President's that this is really the president's space,
- 15:28Speaker 1: the people that he's really been catering to for the
- 15:30Speaker 1: majority of his presidency. And you said that it is
- 15:34Speaker 1: interesting that he feels really comfortable able to go off script.
- 15:37Speaker 1: Even made a note that his scripted speech was too boring. Um,
- 15:40Speaker 1: I'm wondering from your perspective, did he say anything that
- 15:43Speaker 1: you think will be controversial among congressmen who are part
- 15:47Speaker 1: of the Republican Party. Yeah. One thing that we we
- 15:51Speaker 1: saw and this isn't too shocking for the President Trump,
- 15:55Speaker 1: but uh, he took a swipe at the Senator John McCain,
- 15:58Speaker 1: who is back in theres a fighting against brain cancer,
- 16:01Speaker 1: has been fighting for his life for the better part
- 16:03Speaker 1: of uh four or five months now, and President Trump
- 16:06Speaker 1: attacked him over his vote on Obamacare last year. Uh,
- 16:10Speaker 1: this is something that it really has rubbed a lot
- 16:13Speaker 1: of senators the wrong way, and we've become a little
- 16:15Speaker 1: bit desensitized to it. But the President really went after
- 16:18Speaker 1: Senator McCain, who is trusted and very revered member of
- 16:23Speaker 1: the Republican Party. Uh. He attacked him by not by name,
- 16:27Speaker 1: but everyone knew what he was talking about. And I
- 16:29Speaker 1: think that's something that Republicans UH are are are going
- 16:33Speaker 1: to really not be too happy about, because this is
- 16:35Speaker 1: someone who's really struggling and really going through a tough
- 16:38Speaker 1: time and there thinking about him and positive ways. And
- 16:41Speaker 1: here you have a president sort of getting up the
- 16:43Speaker 1: crowd to boo uh Senator McCain, who has long been
- 16:47Speaker 1: known as an American hero for his time in Vietnam
- 16:49Speaker 1: and for all of his time serving the public in
- 16:51Speaker 1: the Senate. So I think you'll hear more coverage of
- 16:54Speaker 1: that and the days to come, maybe even here some
- 16:57Speaker 1: senators UH talk nealy about the President's decision to go
- 17:01Speaker 1: against one of their own, and it'll be interesting to
- 17:05Speaker 1: see what the reaction is to that. Tolu laurinovall let
- 17:07Speaker 1: you go and listen to the render of the speech
- 17:09Speaker 1: to Lu Laarnova, White House correspondent for Bloomberg coming to
- 17:13Speaker 1: us from Washington, d C. Speaking about President Trump's comments
- 17:17Speaker 1: at the Conservative Political Action Conference. We will bring you
- 17:20Speaker 1: headlines if he says anything that you need to be
- 17:23Speaker 1: aware of. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and
- 17:30Speaker 1: L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at
- 17:33Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
- 17:37Speaker 1: Pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on
- 17:41Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You
- 17:44Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio