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November Events and Intro to Macy · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Today is October 28th.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: I've got Macy with us here today.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: How's it going?
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, pretty good, Mike.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: How about yourself?
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we got a couple fun things to talk about today, folks.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna have a little intro to Macy here, but first we're gonna get started talking a little bit about the month of November and some of the key events going on here this month.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: How's that sound, Macy?
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: That sounds like a plan to me.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get going.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we've got corn futures here week over week down about 10 cents across the board.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean futures up about seven cents across the board week over week.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: A little bit quiet once again for the uh final full month of October.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Been a very tight trading range on these grain markets here recently.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: So I want to talk a little bit here to start off the podcast, just about all the key time frame events coming up in the month of November, Macy.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna start with the uh November 8th midterm elections.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we we start talking about the impact of this midterm election on these commodity markets.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I would say no one's really stuck their head out to make any hard predictions about what's gonna happen on the 8th there.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: The Republican Congress has uh been bullish equities and funds are liquidating their equity shorts here.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Um grains will probably trade more of the outcome of the Ukraine export corridor deal coming forward and more of the South America weather coming forward.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: So the US dollar uh acts like it's kind of making a top here.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: It'll trade a lot of those things more specifically coming forward.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: But uh most uh fundamentalists are are bearish soybeans here a little bit, and corn and friendly wheat a little bit here in the in the near term.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: But when we talk about the midterm impact on commodity prices alone, uh historically markets don't really favor uncertainty, Macy.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: So if uh we get in and let's say that the Democrats retain both the House and the Senate, that would be pretty um uh unlikely, but it'd be uncertainty, and they don't like that.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: So we would trade probably a little bit lower, for example, if that does have an impact on commodity prices, I would assume.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see how that all plays out, but that'd be your first big event coming up that could influence money flow pretty greatly coming forward because honestly, volatility has dropped quite a bit.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen volatility on these grain markets drop pretty hard since about the July timeframe.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: And when I look forward here, I could see the month of November really impacting volatility and really shaking these grain markets up.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: And that first date there is one of the first events I could see that happening with.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: Second would be the day after we've got the WASDA report.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the demand destruction's been real in these grain markets, and that's probably gonna continue into that November report.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I know domestic basis has been strong on corn here, yes, but when I look forward at the USD where it's at today, when I look forward at export markets and how far off we are competitive-wise from our uh other markets like Brazil, for example, or uh Russia, Ukraine in that region, for example, if we do end up getting a deal done there to get some more exports out of there, uh, we're not really competitive out of the United States going forward.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: So when we look at demand in that report, we are likely to expect some uh demand destruction in that report as well.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: And demand on ethanol as well, that's gonna be a big concern going forward uh regarding the health of the economy.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: We've had some consumption concerns here real recently.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: We've had really high ethanol stocks, we've had poor production, uh, especially for this time of the year still.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: And uh now if you add in something like uh not specifically really having a date on this, but in the month of November, we'll have further information about a uh, you know, added in a railroad strike potentially.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, if you start talking about that as well, that is not gonna help out demand going forward in the United States uh consumption-wise.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: So a few of those topics really could shake things up uh to start off the month of November right away.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: And then when you get about mid-month, you're gonna start talking about the FOMC, you're gonna be talking about rate hikes a lot more frequently with Jay Powell and seeing what he's gonna be doing.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that'll have some impacts as well.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: So some really key reports there.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And then the final thing that I'm kind of gonna talk about here is the November 22nd deadline.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: We mentioned it before, uh, having, you know, uh having that deadline coming up for the grain export corridor as that extension hangs in the balance as negotiations are are beginning on that.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh no real head uh headlines going in uh pointing either direction on this deal getting done or not.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I uh uh we really haven't traded that news or those headlines real, you know, frequently over the last few months until probably a couple weeks ago when that bridge to Crimea was destroyed uh by Ukraine and then forcing the Russian Russians to retreat and then added in some bombings and retaliation.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: And uh that was the first time we've seen them really trade Russia-Ukraine news in qu in quite a while to any substance I've seen, I guess, from you know, when we saw wheat up 60 cents that Monday after following some of those bombings.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: So I would like to see some of those days, anyways, some of those reports get by here and see what kind of volatility we have in these grain markets potentially, because with all of these big potential events, I a lot of these I see as more of a bearish influence on these markets.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that's maybe just a little bit of my bias looking in at these markets with these events of any potential outcomes that they could have if they do have any influence at all, not saying any of them will, but I see that as a very good reason, some of those key dates as being potential setbacks in these grain markets.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot of people are wondering when the next breakout in corn market in the corn market is gonna be.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: I could see one of those dates being one of those big breakouts.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: So uh those are some of the things I'm looking for in the month of November, especially after we've really traded into a tight trading range on these grain markets.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Look for some of those key events in the month of November.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: But now we're gonna get to what everybody's been waiting for.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna meet Macy, one of our newest team members, and uh, we're gonna talk a little bit about uh why you're here, how you're here, and kind of what you do here.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Macy, how's that sound?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: That sounds great.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: So uh first question what is your background?
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Where are you from?
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, Mike, I did want to start by saying this.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um, for those of you that know me, I have really been waiting for my spot to get onto the podcast here.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: So thanks, Mike.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for finally coming on.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, um, to get into my background a little bit, um right when I could start working, I um started working at um sow production um all the way through high school, grew up on a uh feedlot and swine production uh farm.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: Um went uh started working at the uh sow production and then um kind of just started working in the meat lab and at Brookings, that's where I went to school at South Dakota State there.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um I went for animal science major.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't know you worked in the meat lab.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: So cool.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: And then uh so was that your main area of study?
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, animal science was, and then I um took a few classes, got interested in egg marketing and egg business, and that's kind of the path that took me to my full-time job here right out of school.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: Anything fun you did over in school, any areas of focus or any projects or anything that stuck out?
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, I thought um what was interesting over at school was kind of to meet people from different backgrounds and see kind of how their um operations worked and how how that can be seen different views.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Nice.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: What uh made you want to become a broker?
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I really did enjoy um learning new things, being challenged.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: This is this um area of work is definitely challenging there.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: And I I do like um to help people work through those um different scenarios and how that can how that can work on your operation.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: Nice.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: So at uh professional egg marketing here, uh what would be your main area uh of focus in risk management and what do you really help uh enjoy helping people with?
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, I started when I started here, I really started to specialize and largely work with um the LRP business and help grow that um to kind of where it is today.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_01: And you can also find me being um right there as a backup, second risk manager on several um key accounts here.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: Nice.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: Anything added on LRP with what you've done that you uh kind of focused on or uh spent a lot of your time in with LRP, I guess, if you wanted to explain that.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: Surprisingly enough, we haven't spent a ton of time on LRP on this podcast.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, um help help do some tracking sheets to to kind of understand how how we can use this product and where it fits in our risk management portfolio and there's a lot of moving parts with uh once you start doing different forms of risk management, whether it's LRP, if you're using the board, cash contracts.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, I could see some of that stuff getting really confusing if you didn't have the numbers in the right places and know the information.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Cool.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: Over the next year or two, uh what are you worried about in these markets?
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: What are you gonna be focused on?
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: Uh anything in particular?
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, I find it interesting.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um, just kind of when I started um working here.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: I started um the beginning of the year this year, and it's just interesting all the roller coasters we've been on in these markets and how um yeah, new new times, and I'm kind of worried about how things used to be.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: That uh that would make two of us.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: So what's uh what's your favorite pro egg memory here so far in your in your sh your long year?
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, um coming into the team, uh it was a little bit of excitement, um nerves, um coming into a team with mostly males.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, I found myself um there are people out there that can get my sarcasm, and these people are certainly it.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: Half of us can anyways.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: What podcast do you listen to?
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, I I do listen to this podcast.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_01: You do a great job.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: That was an awesome answer.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: Not enough people get that one.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: I do surprisingly listen to some true crime.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, there you go.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be an interesting one compared to answers like Nick.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and check out that podcast if you missed it.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: Who would be your top three podcast de uh guests, living or dead?
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, the first one that comes to mind here is Ryan Reynolds.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think that would be someone very interesting to talk to.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: You cheated.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: I I I answered with that one, but I'll give it to you.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: How about your other two?
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um, one of my other ones would be one of the twelve disciples, um, Simon Peter.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and then the third would be Matt LaFleur, the uh Green Bay Packer head coach, you know, kind of figure out specific questions for that fella this year.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, figure out what we got going on.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: How can listeners connect with you, Macy?
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you can email email me at Macy at Professional Ag Marketing or give me a call at 507-236-0165.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for coming on the show today, Macy.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: Please reach out to us from our website at professionalagmarketing.com or check out our newly added hog specific podcast named Hog Market Talk that's released every Thursday.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk and loss that is not suitable for all investors.