Latest / UK Column Radio / Financial War Behind the Iran War: Why Gold is Crashing and the Dollar is Winning | Silk and Steel

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Financial War Behind the Iran War: Why Gold is Crashing and the Dollar is Winning | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Silk and
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Steel Podcast. I'm your host, Carl Zab. Today I welcome
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: a long term friend of mine. Uh, my, my collaborator
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: on many many Twitter x spaces, Team teen Shing.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Uh how how should I introduce you?
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Uh?
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Why don't you introduce yourself?
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: Sure?
• 0:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I guess online my online presence, I
• 0:30
  Speaker 4: mean I have a date. Well, I had a day job.
• 0:32
  Speaker 4: I'm sort of just chilling now, which is nice. But
• 0:36
  Speaker 4: my primary presence online is through a podcast called for
• 0:39
  Speaker 4: Escape from Plan A. And uh, yeah, it's a wide
• 0:42
  Speaker 4: ranging podcast. We've been talking more about, you know, sort
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: of like AI finance, American society, Asian American stuff, but that,
• 0:52
  Speaker 4: you know. But anyway, yeah, Escape from Plan A. If
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: you want to find me online.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Well today the reason I to talk to you
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: is because I saw a very interesting article you wrote
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: on your substack, which is about the correlation between gold,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: dollar and oil. This is something I'm actually trying to
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: puzzle over as well, because I followed the gold gold
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: prices and oil prices and and dollar prices, and I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: noticed there was a you know, it's very odd what
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: happened since the war started. The gold initially spiked together
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: with oil, but very quickly it drops and it continued
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: to drop the gold price while you know, the oil
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: price is obviously rising, but the dollar is surprisingly strong.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I think that the strength of dollars probably why the
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: gold has weakened. But I'm trying to understand why that happened.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: And you wrote a very timely article on that one substack,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: so maybe you can introduce that idea to my audience here.
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think I've been following it very
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: closely too, and not least because I'm invested in gold,
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: and I, as an American, have US dollars and I
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: pay and I pay for gas, so I care about
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: oil too, so I follow it and I've been very
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: surprised that, I think one. I have a lot of
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: friends who are sort of like day trader type, degenerate types.
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: I don't mean that in a bad way, and a
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: lot of them have been trying to chase the oil
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: trade because if you look, there's so many reports about
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty dollars two hundred dollars a barrel
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: oil Saudi Arabia. The Kataris are saying it's going to
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: go to two fifty if this thing's drags on. But
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: if you look at the price of WTI, which is
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: in America at least we look at WTI more than
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: we look at Brent, it has not broken one hundred
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: dollars a barrel. It flirts with it, but it's almost
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: as if there is a sort of like hard resistance
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: at one hundred, and there's something pushing the price down.
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: Every time he gets the hunter gets beaten back down.
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: And as you know, Bessant has said that, you know,
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: he would be willing to intervene directly in the oil
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: futures markets, and the prospect of that was so unnerving
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: that the head of the CME, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange,
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: where these futures are traded, said, if you were to
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: if the US government were to come in and intervene,
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: this would be a complete and utter disaster. We would
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: have a meltdown in the oil markets. Don't do it.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: So I'm just saying that to point out that the
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: prospect of the US intervening in these commodity markets is
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: something that's taken seriously enough that the head of the
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: futures exchange on which it occurs had come out to
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: warn the government not to do that. And as we
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: know Scott Bessant is this is how he is keeth.
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: I mean, he is a currency speculator and there's something
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: he loves to do more than intervene in these systemically
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: important commodities and currency currency markets.
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: Well, you know the.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Way they have already intervened.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: They just waiver the sanction of the waiver the sanction
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: of Russian and Uranian oil, trying to increase the supply.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: And that actually, now that I think about it, it's
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: it's not even increasing the world oil supply because oil
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: is a functable global commodity. Because it's not like the
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Russian and Iranians haven't been selling oil.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: They have.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: They've just been selling to China and best And recently,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: when on a show where said, oh this is our genius,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: our idea. We're basically jiu jitsuing you.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Wrong with their own oil.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: We're turning their own oil against them. So the idea
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: that he said is, you know, there's already like one
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty million barrels of Urani and oil floating around,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: but they're going to China, uh, and there's nothing US
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: can do so now by lifting the sanction, other countries
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: can also buy those uh Uran in oil, namely Japan, Korea,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: you know, Philippines, all these US allies in the region.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: And then he said something interesting. He said, you know,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: we as treasury, we have visibility to all the all
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: the fun flow, you know, where the money goes into.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: We can freeze those bank account where the where the oil,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: where the oil money gets deposited. Whereas if Uron just
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: continued to sell to China, you know, it just gets
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: cycled in that in that China Iranian trading system, there's
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: nothing we can do. Uh, I'm actually surprised, he said that,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: you know, review the hand of his game, like, well, okay,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: now Uranian know that what you're you're up to, why
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: would they do as you say?
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: You know what?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: And by the way, I think now I understand why
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: you're wrong. Is trying to price the oil in you
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: want it's now you're wrong. Is telling people who who
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: want their oil tanker to transit straight or horror moves,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: they have to pay in Chinese yuan. This is because
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: you know that way it's outside of the US financial
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: system that that US government cannot get there.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: Go ahead and go ahead.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: So you know, I got I got accused recently of
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: interrupting my guests too much, So please you.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: Are my guests. No, No, I think you're right.
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: I think the it's funny because when people have these
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: when when the war is not hot, like when it's
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: not like a hot issue, and people are taking a
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: step back and sort of assess what's going on. Everyone's
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: aware that there's a currency uh power play here. Everyone's
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: aware of the petro dollar. Why do we even have
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: the term petro dollar if it doesn't exist? Of course
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: it exists. I mean in the now that everyone's freaking
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: out and we're in the eve of what could be
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: World War three, who knows, you know. I feel like
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: the the the ability to think through becomes it's a
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: little harder to think through some of these things because
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: we're all worried about the next step. We're worried about
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: what's going to happen. We want really sharp predictions, and
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: one thing that we have seen is that the obvious
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: prediction for where oil is going to go and where
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: gold is going to go, which are two of the
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: most important commodities in the marketing, we can talk about that.
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: I think those are the two most important world commodities
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: did not behave the way people thought. And the first was,
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: despite calls for one fifty two dollars oil or whatever,
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: it has not broken above like ninety eight bucks.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: It just won't. It just won't go above that.
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: So everyone who thought that they were gonna make easy
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: money riding this wave of the you know, this oil shock,
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: a lot of them have been rug pulled out. Okay,
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: it's not they're not making money on their shorts or
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: their lungs. And the the other surprising thing, which most
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: people took as unrelated, and I think it was timed
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: that way, to be honest, but we'll talk about that later.
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: Was a crash in gold price.
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: Is gold is supposed to be a safe haven asset
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: which in times of geopolitical tension like this should be
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: on the rise at least not crashing. I mean, I
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: think it should consolidate its price at that sort of
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: like above five thousand level.
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  Speaker 3: But then it crashed.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, it lost over ten percent of its value
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  Speaker 4: in a very short amount of time. And we had
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: not seen a downward movement like that in a while,
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: and the timing of it coincided with this oil so
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: ply shock, and so I was just trying to think through,
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: why is it that what we would expect? So what
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: it was the so obvious move, which is, you know,
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: gold up, oil up, everyone's moving into these safe haven assets.
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  Speaker 4: Why isn't that happening? And so I thought about it
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  Speaker 4: and I realized, you gold is not just the commodity
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: in the sense of like a silver, Silver is a
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: metal commodity, platinum is a metal commodity. But gold is
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: a monetary asset in the sense that I don't know
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: about right now, but I think there was a point
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  Speaker 4: not very long ago where it surpassed the US dollar
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: as the number one central bank reserve asset around the
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: world by value. So it's it's on par with the
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: US dollar in terms of its foundational importance as a
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: monetary asset. And so it's not it's not just like
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: another metal, you know what I mean. And so I
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: think we've got to look at consider that some things
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: we should be pricing in gold, because for a lot
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: of the world, gold is really the store of sovereign wealth.
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: If that's really the store of your national wealth, so
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: to the extent that your country has run surpluses with
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: the rest of the world right, meaning that you've produced
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: more into the global economy than you've taken from it.
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: How do you store that surplus? They stored as gold,
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: and when there's a crisis, you can price the commodities
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: that you need. So first, yet there's an oil shock,
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: a lot of countries which are still highly petroleum dependent
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: are going to have to convert their surpluses to grab
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: whatever oil supply they can. That's that's currently circulating and
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: hopefully to push put pressure for there to be new
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: oil product, additional oil production to come online. And so
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: one thing I thought was, well, why don't we think
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: about oil as a commodity that's purchased with gold rather
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: than US dollars, because that's how much of the world
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: will be paying for it. And if you look at
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: it that way, I think gold would be about I mean,
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: I think oil would be priced about one hundred and
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: fifteen dollars a barrel, not ninety eight. And at one
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: fifteen you're pushing towards disaster. I think the I think
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: there's a I don't really understand oil pricing that well
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: in terms of how it as an input into the
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: economy and the pricing thresholds, but i've heard widespread one
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: twenty spells global recession for sure. So if you are
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: a country that is paying for oil through your surplus,
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: and your surplus is mostly gold, oil is has become
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: significantly more expensive than if you're a country that holds
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: your surplus mostly in US dollar assets, which are rallying.
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: So except for the bond, that's interesting. But if you
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: have a short term bonds US dollar cash equivalents, then
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: oil is significantly cheaper then if you're paying for it
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: in gold. I think that that's and the timing of
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: this aligns because the gold crash happened during this war shock,
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: and so I I think that that was one way
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: to look at it. I provided those graphs in my
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: in my in my substack, and I think they're they're
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: pretty illustrative. I don't know if we can share screens
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: on this thing or not, but it shows very clearly. Well,
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: let me stop there, let me stop there and get
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: your reaction.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: But I was gonna say, keep talking, because I'm trying
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: to pull up your chart.
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, screen share okay, Well all right, so the
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: charts that I've created, I thought, well, what's really interesting
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: is we have a very recent precedent for this, which
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: is the Ukraine invasion, which also led to an energy shock. Right,
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: So if you pull up the I decided to just
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: graph the price of oil nominated in US dollars versus Yeah. Sorry,
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: that's a little hard to see, but yes, okay, yeah,
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: it's coming up there, all right. So this chart is
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: the price of oil in both US dollars and in
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: terms of gold across the period of the Ukraine invasion,
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: which was February of twenty two. And as you see
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: right in February twenty two, there's a massive spike in
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: the price of oil in both denominations. It's actually spiking
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: higher in usd rather than gold. So if you hold gold,
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: you're not as you're not as punished by the spike.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: But they both spike, and if you look as it
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: sort of as the price sort of consolidates into a
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: more even trend. So there's this initial spike, then it drops,
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: and then it resumes its march upwards. They end up
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: at about the same place. So oil price goes up
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: in about equal measure as paid in oil as paid
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: in US dollars versus as paid in gold. And this
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: is about four years ago. So that's the base case.
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: And then as you see there I think in the
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: right that's the most important part is the war drags on,
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: oil prices continue to climb, but in lockstep, and so
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: you would see that the price of the barrels of
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: oil measured in US dollars would go up. But if
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: you look at the other chart, I don't know if you.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: Can pull that up.
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: This is the new chart, right, yes, okay, so this one,
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: so this is the current chart. This this ends at
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: the present time, and the pattern looks really similar. There's
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: a if you can see in the sort of run
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: up to the attack, I guess I could call it,
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: there's a run up and then a sudden spike, a
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: panic spike, and then it drops back down and then
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: it continues its run up. Right, it looks very similar
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: to the Ukraine pattern, except as you can see, once
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: it starts after that initial shock, and the price continues
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: to go up. In terms of gold, it actually levels
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: off for the US dollar, and so there's a huge
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: divergence in the growth of oil's price when denominated in
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: US dollars versus gold. It's significantly more expensive if you
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: pay in gold and I think most people would probably
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: respond in the sort of I think obvious way, which is, well, yeah,
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's what happens when gold's price crashed, And
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: it was a coincidence that gold's price crashed. And so
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: I started thinking about the reasons why people attribute this
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: sudden crash and gold price, which is kind of unprecedented
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: since gold has been going up sort of, Well, I
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: would say, rather, it's been pumping for a few years, right.
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: Why now?
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: Well, one reason, the most often cited reason, is that
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: there was a hot inflation print in the United States,
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: and therefore the likelihood of any rate cuts was taken
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: off the table very unlike the US is going to
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: cut interest rates. What that means is that because the
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: interest rates in the US, because the interest rate on
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: the dollar is going up, the dollar becomes a more
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: One way to put it, is the opportunity cost for
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: holding gold rather than US dollars goes up because my
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: dollars are giving me a higher interest rate. So you
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: would expect to see gold go down a little bit,
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: but not a crash. And also I looked into it,
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: it was over ninety nine percent confidence going into the
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: last FED meeting that there would be no interest rate cuts. No,
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: it was a eleven to one vote and there was
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: a unanimous decision to keep interest rates steady. And the
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: market completely knew about this beforehand, so there was no surprise.
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: So there's no reason for gold to drop ten percent.
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: There was no there was no surprise news on the
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: rate cut side. So the inflation print in the ring,
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: I don't think that that was the cause. And the other,
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: the other often cited reason for the crash in gold
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: was a liquidation cascade, which is, well, you see when
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: when when And I've heard a lot of people say
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: this on on in the media, and I've had friends
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: tell this to me as an explanation which is on
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: its surface plausible, which is that because gold had been
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: such a profitable trade for so long, when other assets
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: start to start to go down, when you see major
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: drops and asset prices elsewhere, you get leverage calls because
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: the market's leveraged, and so to what you you know
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: what that means is you have to post cash to
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: cover your paper losses. Right, the brokerage houses are not
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: comfortable sitting on these losses, and so the brokerage houses
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: go around, they start calling all the big funds and
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: stuff for margin calls, and the obvious thing to do
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: is to sell your most profitable position, and that would
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: be gold. And so gold was being sold off in
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: order to cover off a cascading margin call scenario. But
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: then I thought, what are you talking about? What margin
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: call scenario? There's been no crash in stocks. I mean,
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: there's the stocks have been down a bit, but there's
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: no crash. There has been even crypto has been holding up,
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: you know, quite well through this war. There has not
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: been a massive decline in asset prices that would require
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: the liquidation of gold at this level to cover off
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: any cascading margin call. So I don't buy that either.
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: So I've not heard. Those are the top two explanations,
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: and neither of them hold water to me. And I
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: think that what's going on is some kind of intervention
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: in order to basically have the dollar pegged to the
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: price of oil. That's the petro dollar play. You want
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: the you want the dollar to ride with oil on
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: the way up. And in a shock situation like we
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: have now, where the US is acting like and it's
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: like a like it's going to destroy the world and
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: it's creating chaos all over the planet, and it wants
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: to We want to impose our will across the planet.
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: What better positive reinforcement to that behavior than for our
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: for the dollar to rally and be the only asset
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: that's keeping pace with oil Right now, that's the only
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: asset that's keeping pace with oil. Gold is shitting the
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: is shitting bricks, and so I think what's going on
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: is actually gold is not crashing. Oil is in fact surging.
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: It's not gold that's crashing, it's oil that's and what
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: the weird thing that's happening is that the dollar is
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: keeping pace with oil. The dollar is appreciating together with oil,
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: and that's the petro dollar play. So I think that's
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: my personal interpretation of what's going on, is that we're
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: just doing a massive petro dollar offensive.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: So you think this is because the government intervention, that
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: there's a Scott Besson and his gangs there. They're trying
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: to prop up the dollar, prop up the treasury, they're
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: trying to keep they're trying to defend the status of
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: petro dollar essentially, and this is why the US dollar
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: has been unually strong lately as compared I mean, you know,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: in time of crisis, there tend to be a flight
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: to safety two dollars, but usually there's also flight to
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: safety to go. But now the divergence is because of
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: the government intervention.
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: That's your Yeah, I think one way to think about
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: it now, I okay, I got to be clear. I'm
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: speculating here. I have no evidence for this other than
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: just interpreting these graphs. But that's what people do. So
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: let's play a game. I think what's going on is
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: that they're trying to do a double rug pull where
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: everyone is completely open to the idea that the US
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: Treasury is intervening in the oil markets, which would be
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: they could do it in an opaque way. Actually, we
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: wouldn't have any reporting requirement where they would need to
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: disclose that it's the Treasury on the other side of
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: this trade. It's anonymous trading, and we don't have any
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: problem believing that. I think we should similarly not have
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: any problem believing that the US government is similarly dumping gold.
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: And it doesn't necessarily have to even be selling gold.
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: It can use its usual price manipulation techniques such as
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: gold swaps. Right, so the government is willing to lend
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: its bully and resis serves out to bullion banks like
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: HSBC or JP Morgan, and those banks can sell can
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: sell the government's gold right and buy it back later
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: at a lower price. At a depressed price, they can
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: flood the zone with gold. The US is actually, i
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: think could, through via gold swaps, enter into we should
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: talk about the word swaps. They're not actually swaps, they're
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: actually repurchase agreements, but they're called swaps for legal reasons,
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: but they're essentially lending their gold bullion reserves out to
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: banks to go sell into the market. And these banks
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: are market makers. So when we talk about the price
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: of gold, it's the price set by bullion banks.
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: It's their bid ask. It's like what the.
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: Bullion banks are paying and UH paying and receiving asking
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: uh for for physical gold. And the banks are able
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: to uh move the price downward if they're able to
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: get hold of a lot of gold to sell into
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: the market, if they're long a lot of supply. And
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: the government is authorized actually to enter into currency stabilization tools,
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: including swaps and against monetary assets that would include gold.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: So the government can enter and does often enter into
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: gold swaps with bullion banks, which provides bullion banks with
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: a lot of gold inventory that they can sell into
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: the market and the government will later buy it back.
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: So they have a lot of techniques to control the
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: price of gold. So how would that, for example, control
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: the price of gold. The government can set a price
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: for gold in these swaps, and that acts as a
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: foundational anchor for what the price for what the bullion
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: banks are going to put set the price of gold
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: at because the bullion banks of dentually need to buy
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: that gold back and send it back to the government
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: when the swap expires. And so the government, by naming
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: a price on the swap is exerting a huge amount
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: of influence in the gold market.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: And if we believe.
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: I'm not saying that it's true, because I don't have
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: any evidence of this, but if we believe that the
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: US government is in fact trying to manipulate the price
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: of gold, just as it's trying to manipulate the price
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: of oil, I think it makes a lot of sense.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: In a geopolitical sense, it absolutely makes sense that punishing
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: gold reserves countries that reserve in gold, punishing them right
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: now is good policy, because what that's saying is, if
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: you're disloyal to the US dollar. If you're disloyal to
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: the US dollar system and you're trying to join these
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: these bricks, countries that are trying to dedollarize become use
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: gold as a central reserve asset rather than US dollars.
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: But now we're going to reserve in gold as the
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: world traditionally has. We're gonna punish you. We're gonna punish
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: you right now because your you know, your your price
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: of oil just got a lot more expensive because you
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: didn't you chose not to hold dollars. Is that what's
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: going on? I don't know, but I think the incentive structure,
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: together with the instrumentalities available to the government, together with
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: scheming Eunuch Scott Besant adds up to I would think
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: that this might explain a lot of what's going on.
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: That's my I.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Think you.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I I by ox some razor. I think your explanation fits,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, makes most sense to me. But but okay,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: I'm asking you to predict the future now, which is
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: always fought with danger. But do you think this trend
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: can persist over a long period time? I mean, is
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: this divergence of dollar and gold, is that that sustainable?
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: It's gonna I think it's gonna be bestent versus the
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: Hong Kong dollar reducts when he got his ass kicked
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: by but when he got his ass kicked because uh,
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: the PBOC decided to it never actually intervened, but it's said,
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: we will if you need, if need be right.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: I think what's going on? What's interesting?
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: I think as I think the price of gold would
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: would be a lot lower actually if the US was
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: able to uh basically run away with the market, if
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: we had full control of the gold market, gold would
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: be at thirty five hundred right now or something like that.
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: It would it would be below four thousand.
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: For sure.
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: We try to crater gold, but it's not. I I
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: think when if you look at this from the perspective
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: of a Scott Bessant, the spoiler in this is again
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: the PBOC. I think that probably the Chinese are buying
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: up the gold that the that that the US is dumping,
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: and they're gonna have to buy it in US dollars
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: and to raise where's the where they getting these US dollars?
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: I think they're dumping treasuries because if you look at
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: treasury yields, they spiked through this. That's another weird piece
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: of this puzzle. Why is the US dollar strong but
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: the interest rate on the long on the longer dated
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: treasuries is going up. If everyone's cramming into US assets
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: flight to safety, why is why are bonds being sold
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: off like crazy?
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: Now?
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: Everyone says that, oh, it's because everyone is no longer
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: satisfied with the you know, the credit worthiness of the
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: US government and whatever, inflation or whatever. Okay, maybe surely
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: that's part of it. But I think if you look
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: at the chart, I don't have a chart for this one,
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: but you can look it up, there is a nearly
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: vertical spike in the yield uh and it's really shocking
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: and very upsetting to the US Treasury.
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: For sure.
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: That it's one thing to have that your currency go up,
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: but to have your debt fall is that's not great
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: because that's not helping US finance our war. We need
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: we need the bond to get strong, and the bond
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: is weakening. And I think one if if we believe
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: this cycle of the US dumping gold to punish gold
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: reserves while China is as as the sort of central
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: economic and monetary pillar of bricks is propping up the
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: price of gold to help all countries that reserve in gold.
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: Then I think the fact that treasuries are being sold
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: off kind of comports with this dynamic because the Chinese PBOC,
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: the PBOC Chinese Central Bank, would need to sell off
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: its bonds in order to finance purchases of gold. So
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: while the US is dumping gold, China is dumping treasuries.
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: So they're both dumping and now we're in a fight
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: between you know. I I think in a way, if
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: indeed it is China that's dumping treasuries, China, in a
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: way is is putting the pain on any country that
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: has reserved in US treasuries. So if viewed from this angle,
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: this is a this is a financial war where the
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: US is trying to punish gold reservists and the China
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: in China is retaliating by punishing US treasury reservists.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: UH.
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: The the only difference right now is I think the
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: advantage might at the moment, at the moment be with
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: the US simply because of systemic UH, the institutional inertia
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: of the petro dollar system, where everyone is ingrained to
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: think that to buy oil, I've got to liquidate for
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: US dollars now, and I think that explains at the
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: same time, now we've got we've explained I'm really trying
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: to sell this, Carl. We've explained falling gold, We've explained
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: stable oil, I surging dollar, we've explained falling treasury rates.
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: And the other thing that this helps explain is why
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: Iran suddenly has a fetish for RMB for the petro
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: un Why is Iran insisting that oil be paid in
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: RMB because they understand now that China is a big
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: part of this war. But on the financial side, and
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: the financial side, I gotta say that's the very critical
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: part of this war because if anything makes Trump and
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: Americans nervous about this war, it's the prospect of the
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: bond market rejecting the idea of this war. And so
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: far it has violently rejected this war. The only thing
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: keeping it viable is the oil price is relatively stable, uh,
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: in the in the in the market for now, for now, right.
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: So it's a very interesting time. I don't know where
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: things are gonna go, but I would think that oil
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: is eventually gonna break out anyway, and ultimately, the legalities
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: around the US government's ability to dump gold is quite
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: limited that it doesn't have a huge amount of space
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: to be doing that. If it was doing so, it'd
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: probably have to break a significant number of laws to
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: do it. So I'm not an expert in that field,
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: but my guess is the you the the Treasury's financial
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: armada for this little uh expedition of theirs is is
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: more limited, and the Chinese commitment to a post dollar
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: system is such that I don't think they're having mench
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: buyer's remorse when a to the amount of gold that
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: they've been hoovering up. I don't think they're intimidated by
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: Scott Besson's little uh, you know, little little trade here
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: purely speculated, girl, This is all speculation.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: I I I.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: You know what that makes most sense to me? Your
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: your explanation.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I always try to go for the simplest explanation. Your
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: your explanation fits all the bills.
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: Now I want to switch the topic around a little bit.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Uh, just ad because you right out living in the
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: United States, you are American.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: You you live in US all your life.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: Has a war? Has a war so far impacting any
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: aspect of American life? I mean, do people on the
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: street in New York. Do they do they feel the
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: impact of the.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: War right now?
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Uh?
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: In a way?
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: Uh? I, I don't know if there's any I mean,
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: the war's far away, and by design we we we
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: create wars far away so that it doesn't affect our
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: homeland and so no, I mean virtually American wars these
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: days are always focused in the Middle East and they
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: don't really.
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: Affect the day to day here.
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: But I would say at a psych like a psychological culture,
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: like a the feeling right like the feeling and gas
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: prices are up, but that it's that's not really you know, disruptive,
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: at least not yet. I would say that at a
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: political level, and we were talking about this before we started.
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: Even though there haven't been a lot of protests like
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: the the Iraq war, there was a huge amount of
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: protest leading up to the war, and so far, I've
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: not seen any mass demonstrations against this war, which would
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: lead one to maybe believe that the America can populations
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: largely supportive or or disinterested in the war. But I
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: don't think that's true. I think this war is perceived largely.
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: I don't know the extent, but I would say this
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: is a pretty prevalent view that this war is seen
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: to be the act of a president under duress by Israel.
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: This is a very fringe view just a few years ago,
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: or maybe just a few months ago, but it's become widespread,
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: and I think a lot of people are and by
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: all report, by some reports, even servicemen in the military
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: are are very reluctant to join to jump in on
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: this war on the basis that this is really Israel's war.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: And I've seen mainstream politicians come out and say that
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: if what Rubio said is true, and we all know
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: what he said, which is that the prime mover here
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: is Israel, not the United States, that this is a
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: very questionable reason to start a war. We have reports
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: now that people very close to Trump, including even Vance
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: our private are actually quite against this war. And we
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: even had Joe Kent. Joseph Kent resigned and has been
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: making the media around saying this was Israel's war. I
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: think this perception has actually seeped in quite deep because
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: one of Epstein. I think the idea of Trump being
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: under duress because of some blackmail issue. I don't know
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: if I believe that personally, but it doesn't matter matter.
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: What matters is perception, and that's a wide from from
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: my experience in America, that is a very widely held
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: perception in the sense that people joke about it. People say, Ah,
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: we got this war because of because of the Epstein Files,
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: Operation Epstein, Epstein Fury, you know. Uh so yeah, I mean,
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: even despite the lack of mass mobilization against the war,
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: I would say that your average American sees this as
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: the result of uh is really infiltration. I don't know
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: if there's any other other way to say it. So
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: I think that was my answer to your question about
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: what what the what it's like in America. I would
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: say people are very skeptical of this war. MAGA is
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: turning on Trump. They view this as a very deep
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: betrayal of the core animating ideas of MAGA. And you know,
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: that's a big deal. To lose the right wing in
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: America is a much bigger deal than losing the left,
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: because there is no left.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, no who cares about the left. But to
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: lose the right wing, you're in trouble.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the most surprising thing about this war.
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: So far.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: The strongest anti war voices come from the right, you know,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: come from the likes of Tucker Carlson Marjorie Greens, while
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: Democrats are mostly set on the sideline. But you know,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: because we know they're all live on the A Pac money.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't matter if party affiliation. All the
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: US Congress been paid and bought for. So I think
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: that's why there's we don't we haven't seen a united
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: political opposition from the establishment. I mean, the which is
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: really a shame.
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: They're all chicken hawks or whatever that term is. They
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: pretend to be anti war, but they're totally fine, you know,
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: so put up some nominal nominal resistance and appear you know,
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: reasonable in peace loving, but ultimately do nothing about it.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: They're probably also thinking, like you know, they will have
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: the November election in the bag, you know, just just
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: just let Trump do his thing. They don't need to
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: stick their neck out to take one position or another.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: Just just let things run its course. But this is
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: we have. We have United States, the most powerful global
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: empire the world has ever seen, basically being it's drifting
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: toward war or not drifting plunge headlong into war, and
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: there's very little questioning, either from mainstream media or from
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: its politicians. I mean, it's amazing, Like everyone can see
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: now it's we are head to our catastrophe is a
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: closure of straight horn moves. It's gonna it's gonna totally
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: destroy the world economy. Yet everyone is just letting the
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: president do his thing, you know, like every day the
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: press releases coming out of White House sounds like this,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: sounds like that that bat Bob.
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: Well, God speak clear about the United States, right, how
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: we're structured. When it comes to domestic affairs. We are
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: a democracy, right, We've we've got checks and balances. The
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: president's authority is extremely circumspect when it comes to domestic issues.
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: But when it comes to foreign policy, when it comes
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: to anything beyond our borders, the president is a complete dictator.
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: The president there's no checks and balances on foreign policy
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: and war. So any any any check on war is
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: actually very nominal. Like we don't really respect the idea
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: that Congress needs to authorize war anything like that. The
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: President just goes in and does war. So when it
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: comes to our foreign policy and war, the US is
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: not even nominally structured as a democracy, you know. So
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: that's that's one, I.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Mean, one reason the Congress the Congress do have the
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: power to impeach the president, but I don't think they're
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: going to use that to stop this war because all
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: the congressmen, they're all most of them are in support
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: of this war because they're all being paid by Israel.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: It's through the APEC money. So yeah, it's sad. I mean,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's You're right, it's no longer a
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: French theory that that US is fighting war for Israel.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's pretty again Oxen Oxen series
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: razors the most simplest explanation, it's it's, uh, yeah, this
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: is this is not whatnot? And well, well for people,
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: is there anything else you like?
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: Go ahead, go ahead, Well.
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: I just want to I mean as a summary, I mean, yes,
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: that that there there is an aspect of this war
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: which is obviously driven by Israel's bizarre and uh religious insanity. Okay,
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: but for the US, I would I would say that,
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: like we do need to understand, like the US does
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: have reason to do this as well. Uh and for
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: for for for the US, it's because the ultimately we
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: must enforce dollar dominance, our our our our our economy
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: is not structured. Uh. Two be survivable if we don't
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: have control of the global currency. I mean, I mean
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: everything about the United States is structured around never ending
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: government debts and trade deficits and uh and and and
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: our entire economy is driven by financial assets. It's driven
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: by the circulation of dollars around the world. And it's
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: been this way for decades. It's the only way of life,
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: we know. You know, go back to that network speech,
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: you know, but shing of all the latest war I
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: did is I did is to exert further pressure on
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: the dollar system. You know, sorry, from the Ukraine War
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: when when they kicked out Russia from the swift system
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: to now when you're on demanding everyone purchase oil pricing
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: you on. I mean, all these wars just make matter
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: much much worse. It's it's not the last thing out
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: is not helping. But yeah, that's uh, it is what
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: it is. I mean, we are at the We are
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: at the I mean, like there's so much have been
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: said that United States today resembles late Soviet Union. Yeah,
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: we've been saying that, right, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, But look,
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: I'm not selling no go ahead, I'm not selling my gold.
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: I think I think that we can keep this up.
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: I think ultimately gold has to uh, gold has to
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: govern international trade.
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: We cannot rely on US dollars. It's just too much.
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: There's just too much unique energy and scheming going on
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: in the US financial system. It's no longer a viable
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: system for for fair and balanced trade around the world.
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: And and no one needs US dollars anymore because all
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: our ship comes from China. So why what the fuck
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: do you need us? There's only one reason, and it's
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: the straight of fucking horror moves. Okay, there's only one
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: currency that's allowed to go past there. It's the US dollars.
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: And that's why Iran is like, no, motherfuckers, There's only
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: one currency that goes to get through here now it's
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: the Chinese currency.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: We're flipping the script. This is why this weekend is
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: so crucial. Do we go in?
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: Do we do we do we send in troops to
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: open that ship up and maintain the US dollar dominance
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: over the over the oil secreting organ of the global economy,
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: or do we lose fucking control? And I think, frankly,
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: if you look at the state of the United States
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: right now, our ability to plan, our ability to project
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: military power, our ability to to not get into a
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: war that we don't eat. It didn't even decide to start.
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: It's oh, there's no fucking way. It's crazy.
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: So anyway, all right, I mean, there's nothing to do
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: but to laugh at this point. It's just where we
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: live in tragic comedy.
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: You can.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: You see the crash a mile off and everybody knows
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: it and whatever they do, but the people at the top,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: whatever they do, they just make the matters worse.
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: And yeah, anyway, I.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: Thought that was really thanks for thanks for having me
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: on man, because you know, I mean, I think I
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: think it is worth it helps to get an idea,
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: at least in your head.
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: I'm not saying I'm right.
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: I'm just saying no one knows exactly what's going on,
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: So just take whatever model you think works best. You know,
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: just can I make predictions with this? Can I have
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: a better grasp of like what the dynamics are, what
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: the incentives are, and see if it plays out and so,
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: And I think that's what's going on again. To summarize,
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: I think, uh, the US is manipulating the gold market
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: in order to prop up the US dollar punish gold
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: reservists and I think China is fighting back. I think
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: they're punishing US Treasury reservists. Everyone loses, but ultimately there's
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: going to be a victor in this. And I think
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: that the US has bitten off more than it can true,
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: and Scott Besson is going to be over too against
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: the PBOC.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: For people who don't know, Scott Besson was the right
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: hand man of George Soros back in during the Asian
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Financial crisis in nineteen ninety seven nineteen ninety eight, and
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: he followed on the success of the raid on Bank
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: of England. He thought he can make some quick money
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: by attacking the Bank of Hong Kong by by shorting
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: the Hong Kong dollar. But what he didn't count down
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: is the fact that Hong Kong just had a new
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: landlord and China wasn't going to have it.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: In China.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: People of People's Bank of China put its foot down
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: and told the Hong Kong government basic defend Hong Kong
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: dollar at all costs. And Scott Besson lost a lot
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: a lot.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: Of money in that bet, and I think he never
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: got over it, and he never got.
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: Thing I wrote that thing in the cc CGTN or
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: whatever reached out to me because they were like, wait,
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: what's this story? And I was like, I'm telling you,
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: this guy has a fucking heart on for China. He
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: wants to It's like the white why. I was telling them,
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: it's like the white whale, and he's like aheb and
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: he's not. He's just obsessed. And I think that's another
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: aspect to this story that I think lines up is
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: Scott Bessant wants to play scheming uniq currency manipulation games
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: against China and he's got one now, so the trade
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: war was nothing.
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is the big one. Yeah.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Again that that's the Scott Scott bessen as a gay
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: eunuch of the Palace.
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: Is mollis.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: A model we have right now and it matches all
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: the Chinese history. We know a stupid infer and his
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: scheme means gay unich. I'm bad, I'm bad. Happy note Well,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: if people want to follow.
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: You ship team, where.
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: Will they go?
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: Uh? Just that's my handle on Twitter mont Jung and
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: uh you can you can search for the podcast Escape
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: from plan A and if you want to read the
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: substack post that I make.
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: I've been making some posts about.
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: Stocks and commodities and financial thing because I'm you know,
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: I work, I've i've I spent my career in finance.
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: You can go to my substack which is called inter
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: Arma UH I N T E R inter and then
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: Arma A r M A dot substack dot com.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Thank you again UH team for making your time to
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: speak to us. For everyone else, thank you for tuning
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: in on tune next time. All right, See you, Carl,