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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football season is here,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the
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  Speaker 1: to make every moment more this football season. You must
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  Speaker 1: be one and over in select states. Call one eight
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  Speaker 1: hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia one eight hundred, next step
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  Speaker 1: or text next step to five three three four two
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  Speaker 1: in Arizona one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven
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  Speaker 1: seven seven seven or visit c CpG dot org slash
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  Speaker 1: chat in Connecticut. One eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,
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  Speaker 1: k S Gambling help dot com in Kansas one eight
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  Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louise, Sianna one
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight Hope n y or text Hope
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and Why in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: hundred eight eight nine nine D five hundred in Wyoming,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: of the Action Network. I am joined as I am
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: every episode by my co host, my companion Mike and
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: padre my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Breathe it in, Chad,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Breathe it in. Brother. I love football so much, and
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I feel like I love it more and more every
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: single year. I was driving my kid to school this
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: morning and we were talking about the games, and I'm
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: just telling me how much I love football and how
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: much I can't wait for the game tonight. Then I
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: went into this whole speech about testasterone, like I just
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: want you to punch a hole in the fucking chest.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: The dude could not get out of the car fast enough.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I think if if I had been on a highway,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: he would have jumped out at seven two in the morning.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Get what you mean? Like, I literally it's like I
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: feel like a kid. I could not sleep last night,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: even though it's just one game. I know it's gonna
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: be a a way where Saturday I'll probably again I'm not
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: much of a drinker, I'll definitely drink all day Saturday,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: just so I can just go to bed and then
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: finally just wake up and football would be here Sunday morning.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: But man, just just thinking about the matchup tonight of
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Stafford Josh Allen kicking it off. It's just it's the
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: best brother, and that's why football is truly king. Someone
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: was joking the other day with me about it. They're like,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: there's no other sport the two worst teams could play
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: like the Browns in Carolina, and we talked about it
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: all week. I was like, it's so true. What what
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: other sports do you care like that? But in football,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: people care, they care a lot. Let's get right to it.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Let's not DEALI dadly, we got a lot to talk about.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: We will get down to our final five favorite picks.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: You can follow that in the Phase five in the
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Action Network app. We probably won't officially lock it until Sunday.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: You can follow all the picks we put in in
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast handle in the Action Network app. We're
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: gonna end the show on Scooch roulette where we each
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: sort of choose our pick and we go head to head.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: We'll have a round robin parlay, money line underdog round
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: robin parlay. We will do a survivor pick. We will
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: have a big ball better the week. But as always
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: on the Thursday show, we start with sharp calls. Hello,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking sign the who called you to
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: tell you we were making bad decisions? No surprise, it's
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: mainly people talking trash to me. Like I predicted, I
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: had a couple of guys reach out that love our
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: picks and a couple of always getting in the call
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: of being you have to take this one. You guys
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: are idiots if you don't put this in your five.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: And I would say the one that kept coming up
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: was Atlanta. I feel like the pros loved that number.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: They love the fact that it hasn't moved right. Why
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: isn't it gotten the six? Everyone and their grandma has
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: been teasing the Saints. They've been betting the Saints. It
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: is funny how many of them loved it. And I
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: joked to myself, I liked it too, but that was
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: when you were on early on. You like that number?
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Right when it came out. Um, you know, of course
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I thought it was gonna move. I thought we were
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: gonna able to get a better number. But obviously the
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: books have taken a stand. They just kept it there. Uh,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: they've kept it kind of at the five and a half,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: they touched six just for a little bit, and I
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: got bet right back down to five and a half.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So to me, it makes sense. I feel like me
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: and You're gonna end up having that one in one
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: of our five just because pros trust love it. Me
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: and you both already loved it. When when the numbers
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: match up with what other pros are saying, that's usually
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: what me and Chad we take those numbers. Uh, the
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: biggestcrepancy is gonna be our Tennessee Giants. Pick I knew
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: that going into it, and they hate when I say
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: this to him, but I just love the phrase sharp trap,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: and it feels like a sharp trap. Like all the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: trends point to taking the Giants every year. People want
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: the Giants to be good. Honestly, you can go back
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: to any podcast at this point before the season starts
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: and they will be talking about how the Giants were
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: gonna be different this upcoming season and how they were
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: going to be improved. I mean, who was your last coach, judge,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: We heard this whole time there. I just can't get
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: behind them. So I understand where these pros are coming from, right,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: new regime, Daniel Jones being coached up, maybe he'll be
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: better this year. And I kept firing back of them.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: You're talking about Daniel Jones in a new system, yere
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: one with a rookie head coach on the road against
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the coach of the year and the one seed in
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: the FC last year, all healthy again. We'll talk about
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: this game, I'm sure, But I just if this was
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: week seven or eight, I'd be with them, like I
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: would feel like this would be a good time spot
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: to take this Giant's team if they were being undervalued.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: To me, the Giants are being overvalued. And the fact
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: that so many professionals are calling me and saying how
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: much they loved it, that just feels like they're walking
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: into one. So those are the two biggest ones talked about.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: It funny that it's both at five and a half number, right,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: a dead number, But that's what a lot of guys
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: who were calling me about, just being like I hate
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: that bad that you and Chat are making. It's making
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: me like an even more Chat. I don't know about you. Yeah,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about Survivor and a little bit. But
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: the Titans have sneakily become probably one of my two
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: top Survivor plays. And I'm in a bunch of different
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Survivor uh pools, and so I've i've you know, played
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: the Titans as one of my teams and a couple
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: of these pools. UM. I listened to Stucky and Chris
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: RayBan and the Action Network podcast this morning. It's great.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Go downloaded Action Network podcast, rate review, subscribe. They'll go
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: through their Sunday six pack. Uh, they had the Giants
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: and their Sunday six paths. It makes no sense to me.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: They love Daniel Jones road Underdog, Splits nine and oh
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: on the road as an underdog. We all know that
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: he's much better on the road than at home. But
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: it's the Giants, and it's Daniel Jones, and it's a
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: rookie coach, and it's a new system. All the things
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: that you just said are true. And it's Mike Rabel,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: who's just a good coach with a better team at home.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: It's a dead number of five and a half. I
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: could see them winning by a touchdown. I could see
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: them blowing them out. Yeah, especially with a fully healthy,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: fresh tires. Derrick Henry, like the guy has just been
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: waiting for this. So yeah, we're not saying seven or eight.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Me and Chat would be all over the Giants team.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I just think this is just a bad spot for
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: them to start in. Meanwhile, and we'll get to this.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Why don't we Why don't we just start there? We
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: love love love Atlanta plus five and a half. Um,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the wise guys told you they love Atlanta plus five
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and a half. I am becoming more convinced of this
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: bet as the week goes on. Think about this. We're
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: talking about a team in the New Orleans Saints, a
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: new coach and a quarterback playing together and coaching together
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: for the first time. A coach in Dennis Allen. It's
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: not like he lit the world on fire the last
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: time he was a head coach, right Sean Payton, who
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: had a brilliant career in New Orleans, A brilliant career
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: as a coach who covers the spread in New Orleans. Um,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know why there is any love for this
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Saints team. I don't get it, like this is a
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: a smash spot for me on the Falcons. Yeah, and
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Sean Payne's claimed the fame. He took his son's one
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: and nine team to a tenant O team the next year.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: This man is a genius. Yeah. Rookie head coaches, right,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: we've seen the numbers are guy. Evan Abrams put it
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: out three and night team straight up. Since rookie head
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: coaches in their first start, there's a reason it's so
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: damn hard in this league. And to prepare your guys
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: and not to be caught up in the moment during
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the game is even harder, right, Like, these guys canna
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: have all the prep they want in the world. Something's
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. It's gonna throw them off, and it's about
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: how can they handle that. Where you're looking across the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: field and you have coaches that have been there, they
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: know the grind of the NFL. They've been in the
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: position of being a head coach. To me, that is
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: an advantage And I get it. Arthur Smith, who the
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: hell is he? He did nothing with this Atlanta team
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: last year. I still like what he did in the
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: offensive side, though, I still think this guy is a
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: smart mastermind on the offensive side, where yeah, you could
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: say what you want. Matt Ryan was not bad last year.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: He played well for this Atlanta team. The struggles for
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: them were on their defensive side, which they tried to
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: address this offseason the draft. So divisional game, this number
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: should be three three and a half. People have just
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: been bashing Atlanta all off season. That's why this number
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: keeps growing. People just keep betting the Saints and then
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I finally stopped. I'm telling you the books are telling
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: you something. They stopped like that. They're taking a hard stance. Again.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: We're not gonna win every bet we take the this
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: me and Chad, when we take dogs like this, when
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: it's a number like this that's just been paused for
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: multiple weeks and you're gonna ride with the books, you
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: usually feel good because they're obviously they know something. When
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: we have numbers backing it up, we think it should
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: be three or three and a half. That's another thing
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: we're looking for. And just the fact that it's a
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: divisional game, Chad, you know that, like we already have
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: a bunch of bets a home dog divisional game week
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: one that's just an auto player for us. So again
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: another Trendsen it's five and up taking that home dog
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: e t s so we just cannot take it land
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: on this position, Sam again, we'll talk about it as
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: we come up here. On Houston. Another position where you
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: just kind of have to hold your nose and take
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: a gross dog divisional dogs in week once it's two
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: thousand four, two and two against the spread over the
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: last eight years, nine and nine. All of that is
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: from Raybon in the Action Network podcast. I'm blatantly stealing it,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: but it's good and it fits our narrative, so I'm
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: going to share it. Um. And by the way, that
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: number and that percentage, the sample size is much smaller,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: but the percentage, the coverage percentage for dogs when they
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: are of greater than three explodes. Um. So we got
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of those situations this week. I like it.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I like it. I like it a lot. Well. The
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: only reason I love doing these trends for honest because
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: that was a legalization happened across America, which to me
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: is more of a sample than just when we're all
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: of our data is kind of just from one area
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: in the country in Vegas, right. So to me, that's
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: why I try to use the thing on But like
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Chad said, you can keep going back. If anything, dogs
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: have just gotten better for us as That's like my
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: whole point of this is like we get more value
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: now because the legalization, because so much more public money
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: is coming on the favorites. Um. But I agree with Chad,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: you can go back as far as you want. It's
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: always gonna port point of taking these home divisional dogs.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: One point of clarity, our data comes from books around
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the world since twenty oh three, literally millions of data points,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: not just Vegas. Um. But I do think that since
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: with legalization also the game opening up, like there's different
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: rules that are taking place, like a year after year.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much they know in Europe or
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Asia about American football, but I get what Chad's point is.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Let's say, when I say around the world, I don't
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: necessarily Europe in Asia? Were you talking Iceland to No,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about maybe places that are offshore, right right,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: I know, I'm just um, so let's talk about the
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: other one that we were really into. So, by the way,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I'm going to make Atlanta plus five and a half.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: That's We're in. We're in. It's literally what the show
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: is all about. Just a gross gross gross dog get
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: used to it. People be uncomfortable. Betting means doing bad things.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: That's it. Gross bets, gross profits. Houston, Houston Man, We
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: loved Houston at plus eight and a half. This line
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: moved aggressively over the forty eight hours from say Sunday
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: until we did our show earlier in the week. It
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: is now seven and a half and I'm getting a
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: hook at seven and a half. I still like it. Uh,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: still a majority of the tickets on the Colts, massive
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: amount of money on the Texans. Wise, guys love this game.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: You and I love this game. If we can get
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: the seven and a half, we still take it. Yeah,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: still still think that's such a key number. We would
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: still take it. A few books. You can get it
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: at uh fandel or a Lovely Sponsor. They still have
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: actually have the seven a half up. They went to seven.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. That was maybe in two or
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: three in the morning today, and then as soon as
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I woke up again at six seven in the morning,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I was back to seven and a half. So kind
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: of kind of thing where they've moved the number the
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: public keeps coming backing on, so they keep bumping it
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: back up, or it's just I don't know, they're kind
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: of they're kind of playing both sides here. It's a
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: little interesting, uh, But to me, yeah, we can go
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: through the matchups of these how these two teams matches up,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: But it's more about the Colds team in general. Right
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: This Cold Steam historically is horrible on the first week
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: of the season. I believe it's the eight straight seasons
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: they haven't won Week one. It's it's bad. It's it's
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: a cold team that historically has coming out slow as
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: well under Frank Reich. My biggest thing looking at this
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: game is what happens in these early weeks, in these
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: divisional games. And I keep going back to that Jaguars
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: year where they were one in fifteen and there are
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: one win with Gordon Minshew game Week one against Philip
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Rivers where Philip Rivers did not punt, He played almost
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: a perfect game. I think they put up thirty four
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: thirty one points and they still somehow lost to a
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Jaguars team that didn't win didn't win for the rest
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of the year. I think that's a perfect summary for
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: what week one is it's just madness. It's kind of
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: just pure chaos, and we're trying to lean into that,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: and again we're not. We didn't talk with the Jets
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: game yet that because that number got seven a half.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: But this was the biggest number all year, right the
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: whole off season, this was up to seven a half,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: eight eight and a half. Been fluctuating and now Chad's
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: talked about these trends. People are getting smarter, the public
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: setting smarter. They're hearing about these trends right what we're
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: talking about here. So to me, it makes sense of
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: the pros are on it. It's cool to the public
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: is coming out as well. But I get if you
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: want to take it. But to me, if if in
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: our contest, especially anyone's contest, you're getting and a half
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: the Sonato play, this is a no brainer. You have
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: to play at that number seven in your contest, I'd
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: start thinking about it. For me and Chad, those seven
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: and a half to eight and a half, we're playing
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: this number even if you're not in a contest seven
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: and a half or higher. If you don't play this,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: we're failing you as podcast. So we haven't convinced you
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: if we haven't convinced you the value in taking a
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: seven and a half eight eight and a half divisional
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: home underdog in Week one against the team that historically
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: starts slow with this head coach, What are we fucking
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: doing here? What is our raised on day tree? Uh?
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Or you can't fight you can't fight at people. This
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: is literally you gotta get used to doing this stuff
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: because again we sound crazy right now, but calm Monday,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: it's gonna all make sense. So this is the biggest
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: pros Joe's game on the board. Right We talked about
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: pros and Joe's. We talked about the betting. Tickets that
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: come in is usually an indication of what the squares
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: the Jo's are betting, and the money is usually an
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: indication of what the professionals are betting. Right now, there
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: is no bigger pro Joe discrepancy on the board. There's
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: fift of the tickets are coming in on the Colts
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: and eighty six percent of the money is coming in
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: on the Texans. That should tell you something right there,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: because with tickets coming in on the Colts, they still
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: haven't moved the number up, They've moved it down. That
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: tells you that the professionals are coming in on the
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Houston Texans Lions plus four against your Eagles. This to
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: me is becoming a little bit of a trendy dog
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: this week. It's still a pros play. Like of the
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: tickets on the Eagles, about sixty three of the money
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: on the Lions plus four. So much love for the
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Eagles right now? Are we getting too much, wise guy
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: love for the Lions. We've been buying the hype all summer?
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Are people catching up? Are we wrong? Are we just deceived?
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: What do you think? It's definitely definitely one of the
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: more trendy home dogs this week, right. I mean people
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: are talking about them, not just the hard knocks factory.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: I think it's everything. All the alanted guys talked about
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: them all summer. I mean, they have an incredible offensive line,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: they have swift in the backfield. I'm on st. Brown,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: on the Rye receiver. I mean they're tight ends even
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: a stud. So you know, to me, it kind of
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: makes sense where we all assume their defense will be better,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: we all assume their secondary will be improved. Now they've
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: got guys back healthy, so Detroit, they're building blocks the
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: offensive line, the defensive line, like that's literally their identity.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: So yeah, doesn't make me nervous are going up against
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: a team that's the better version of them, with a
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: better offensive line and better defensive line. A little bit.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Doesn't make me nervous that this Eagles team beat the
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: same exact Detroit team last year I think about four
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: to seven. Yeah, a little bit, but again we can't
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: take much from last year because those are different spots
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: where that Detroit team I don't think they had won
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: a game at that point, So again, they lost at
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: their own eight and they literally rallied from that point
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: on the rest of the season. So most teams would
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: have folded up right getting blown out like that. So
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: I look at from respective of this line's team has
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: been marked this one down right since the minute the
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: schedule came down. They've been looking at this game to me, right,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: the Eagles team, not that they're gonna overlook this. We
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: talked about it that they've been getting hyped up all summer.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: So I do think it's a little unfortunate the numbers
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: down to three and a half have found due. Like
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: me and Chad loved it at four and half, we
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: love it at four still take it at three and
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: a half. We talked about time four such a key number.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: We've seen it, how many times we've seen that come
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: into play, So I still love it at three and
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: a half. But yet it's it's it's definitely a worring.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Some chat, right, we've seen how much love it feels
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: everyone's taking this lines team. But I just nothing's changed
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: for me. I still think this is a bad number,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: So I would take the three and a half it
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: was three two and a half and maybe then we
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: could start talking Eagles and being a little bit undervalued,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: But it's not because the egos have just been hyped up.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: So I still think you're getting a good number if
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: you want to take the three and a half. But
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: if you can find the four, shop around, find the
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: four Lions. Were the executive decision there now is, Matt
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Mitchell says an executive Darling, you want that to be
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: one of the five at Houston Lanta. Houston's lucked in Atlanta,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Houston are locked in right now. We got a couple
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: more that we were loving that I want us to
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: go through, including the game that I think we would
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: believe will be our big balls better the week and
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: then there are two that I think we have to
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: give strong consideration too. Okay, let's say the lines are
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: in Hello Detroit. So we've we've nailed three five, two
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: competing spots, and I think there are four games to
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: discuss For those two competing spots. One of them is
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: our foxhold bet Cowboys plus two and a half. If
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: there's any game that I'm wavering on, it's this one.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: The spot is right. I think you're getting a Cowboys
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: team at home that can compete, that has the right weapons.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: But I don't believe in their coach. I don't believe
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: in their ownership. I think they will always fail fans,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: and we'll usually fail betters. But this Bucketeers team, with
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: a new coach, as great as Tom Brady is, their
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: offensive line is in shambles. And so the one thing
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: you've got to be able to do was project Tom
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: Brady up the middle on the offensive line. And I
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: don't believe they are well equipped to do that in
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: Week one. Yeah, and that's definitely one of the things
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: I probably, you know, put my pu took a stand
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: on where it's like, that's got to be the weakness here,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: and I saw Chris Gudwin's back, So now they got Julio,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Chris Guywe, Mike Evans. I don't know. Tom probably could
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: figure out quick release and get those guys uh involved.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think I'm with each other where It's
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: like I felt really confident. I'm still betting on it.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: It might be a better real life player than a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: contest play. So to me, that's one of those you
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: kind of have to take it again. We talked about it.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be a big tease game. Everyone's gonna
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: be teasing this game. It's such a teaser number. Why
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: would you not take the Cowboys at home on a
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: primetime game? Again, guys go hard, NonStop, Like this is
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: one of that just seems like I'll be close, Like
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Tampa historically plays these games close early on with Tom
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: if you go back and look at his early season record.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: But to me, I get what Chad's saying here, Like
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I I honestly think if it was three, you mean,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: you would feel way better, right, Like that would just
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: for some reason give me a little more relief. Where
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: the two and a half, there's certain teams where it's
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: like I don't really know about the two and a
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: half and I'm wait over a little bit putting them
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: the contest just because of that. It's like there's other
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: numbers that cross key numbers I like better than the
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys. I love our fans who listen to the
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: podcast and then they will tweet at us all the time.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Someone tweeted at you and tweeted at me their favorite
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: quote from the podcast episode from earlier this week. It
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: was I'm working my ass off and Chad is always
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: trying his best, which was in the moment sounded like
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: a compliment, and then when you read it sounds lot
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: more like, you know, Chet tries hard. That good, but
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: he tries hard. I can't be held down. I can
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: do whatever I fucking want. I thought that too. It
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: was just funny when he when he put it there,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I was like, at a at a context, that does
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: look like just an absolute smack to the face, But
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: I swear that was in my heart of genuine like that,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: the fact that we actually bust our asses. All right,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: let's take the Cowboys out plus two and a half.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about what I think should be big ball
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: better the week? Are you ready? Are you ready? Seattle
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: Seahawks plus six and a half on Monday Night Football.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Who I mean, the only bols I can think of
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: having bigger balls betting would be the Jets. Like, this
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: is it though, because this is a standalone island game,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: me and Chat are gonna be on a literally an
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: island bett in this game. No one else is probably
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: gonna give this out. They'll be like, yeah, you probably
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: should take the Seahawks here, but you can't do it
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: because who's gonna take Gino at home on Monday Night, right, Chad.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Nobody is going to spend a segment on a podcast
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: trying to convince people why they should take it and
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: planting a flag in the ground on it. They will
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: say yeah, and then so that way they can say, yeah,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: I had the Seahawks. But when it doesn't happen, there's
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: not like a lot of noise about it, so they
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: can just skip over it. We are fucking saying it.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Seahawks plus six and a half Monday Night Football. Book
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: it go into the action app. Find the line. If
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: you're in a legal state and you're betting with FanDuel,
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: click on the score cell right there, get Eagles get
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Seahawks plus six and a half. Quick slip it right
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: over to Fandel. You'll be done in ten seconds. Put
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: your money in there. We're on it. We're on it,
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: gotta be now. I feel bad. We're looking down their
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: sheet right now about our favorite five and the three
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: marked in right now in Atlanta, the Texans, and the Seahawks.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, holy crap, Well hold on now, let we
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: have we have Atlanta, Houston, and Detroit. It definitely the Seahawks.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: We are definitely considering. But I would say we're definitely
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: betting it. Whether or not we put in our contest
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: is a different conversation. That's true. I love this number.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, the joke of it is, it's it's so ugly,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: like I even like when I bet it not that
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the woman laughed at me when I went up to
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: the county. She did. She had like a double like
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: a double take. When I said it. She looked down,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: then looked back up at me, and then and then
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: put it in like with a little smirk of like
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: another sucker. So that's always a good feeling. I usually
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: feel really good about those bets. And I bet it again,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: which I did as soon as she gave me that look.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: So let's let's let's hit it again. So that's this
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: is a game I'll being heavily invested in in the
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: sense that I am with you people. Seahawks are bad,
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: but they're not as bad as we all think they are.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: And you're getting a home team with the twelve man
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: against Russell Wilson coming back after all these years, all
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: of industry of this team again running with a whole
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: news what like, it's it's different. I guess he's looked
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: great in practice, and I do think Russ still has
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: it in him, like he could actually be just what
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: dem is looking for. But man, did the NFL give
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: him a raw deal starting him in this spot going
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: on the road against the Seahawks in the prime time
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: game six and a half. That's such a great number
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: to get a home dog in this position. When you
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: step up to the counter, you bet the Seattle Seahawks.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: They should be dropping balloons. As if you're the millionth
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: customer at a car dealership. The woman behind the counter
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: should be looking at you and saying respect. She should
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: be tipping her cap. She shouldn't be giving you some
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: side eye or laughing at you. The reason why I'm
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: not sure we put it in the contest is because
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: I do think there are a couple of games that
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: we got to consider number one. So right now we're
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: locked in Lions Atlanta, Houston. Seattle is there but could
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: be knocked out. We have one more, possibly two more.
• 27:00
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• 28:46
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• 28:51
  Speaker 1: As I think about this game more and more, how
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: do we not bet Mike Tomlin in a ra RA
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: spot as a underdog in the division In games that
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: inevitably went on a field goal. Football is our game.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Our business is winning. Yeah, and we we literally joked
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: about it. I don't even know. Seven months ago or
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: six months ago and the Super Bowl ended, we're gonna
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: be fading the Bengals a lot this upcoming season. We
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: have all seen the trends. The team that loses the
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl and Week one does not farewell. And the
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: simple fact is it's different. Last year was different, right,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: They were on a roll. Are they really a super
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Bowl team caliber team? We'll find out this year. That
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: was one of those things. They were just the hottest team,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: just like remember those Giants teams upset the Patriots team.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: You just go on these runs and then the next
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: year it's just different. It feels different. The locker room
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: has different guys in it. That's gonna hit them, that's
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: gonna hit since the Pittsburgh team, no expectations. I love
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: the fact that the number has not changed at all,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: didn't even we don't even kne who the quarterback was.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: The book kept at six and a half and they
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: left it there and they have just let everyone come
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: in at the bank us for the division that this
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Bengals number Week one you know, teased it down plenty,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: like I was gonna line the biggest tease games right now.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: This is up there. This in Denver, the those two
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: teams that are way up there for most tease teams. Uh.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs might be number one, which is
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: again scary because I like them this week. But yeah, Chad,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: Chad nailed it there. It's like even lines, I do
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: love the lines. If the lines are three and a
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: half in the contest and we could get a six
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: and half for the Steelers, I probably would take the
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: Steelers over the lines in that position, just because again
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: I think that's a better number. And I like both
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the matchups just the same, Like there's both reasons the
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: reasons not to go on either side, and these matchups
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh, I feel like you nailed it right, Chad,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: Rob Rob Mike Tomlins spot. We live for these moments,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: specially moments where he's just here's all the doubt and
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: he's telling his guys about all this doubt. So defensive
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: battle in my opinion this game, and I like Pittsburgh
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: keeping it close. Yeah, three points sounds right to me,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: So six and a half as a gift straight up
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: win this game. B win this game, all right. I'm
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: putting Steelers plus six and a half in the locked column.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: So now we have four for sure favorite though you
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: have to have at least a favorite. I got an
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: idea Lions, Atlanta, Houston Steelers. I'm gonna say something. I
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: believe strongly that we should put this into our PA
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: five Panthers shorth Houn favorites over the Browns. And I
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: would say on the sharp cause this is a game
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: that came up. Pros are all over this Browns team,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: and I said to them, do you know the Browns history?
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: They're another team. I don't think they have won an
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: Opening Day and a lot of years. I don't know.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: It might be like maybe they're the team hasn't won
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: in eight years. But hey, Simon, it's Matt. That number
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: is actually seventeen seventeen consecutive Week one losses for the
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. They last one in two thousand four against
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens and quarterback Kyle Bowler. No other team
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: has done ten plus consecutive Week one losses. So yeah,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: in from up above, man mich Will just dropped in.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: The Browns are historically horrible opening week, so this line
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: just thinks the whole hell. That's what I said to
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: the other pros. I was like, why don't we all
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: just put all of our money on this opening day
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: and just walk away the rest of the season. It
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: seems like an auto bet. So maybe the books are
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: just getting us all fat for the season. But I'm
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: with you, chat I I want to take the Brown
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: so bad because it's like an ugly road dog that's
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: been undervalued because they have a horrible quarterback right now,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: but the rest of their team is just stacked. But
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: everything just in my body wants me to take Carolina again. There,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: they're the superior team in this position, being at home,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: having the talent they have. Everyone's healthy. McCaffrey's healthy. DJ
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Moore is healthy, everyone's there. I don't know if I
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: can let you do that. I think that's where we
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: bump heads on because I'm just scared, Like, as a pro,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: I feel like the books are sucking us in, Like
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: what is this line? Because it went up, like you saw,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: I went up to two and a half. I thought
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: it was gonna three three and a half, which made
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: more sense. It's down to one one and a half.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: Strapped like a stone. It's bizarre. So like I'm I
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: think that's too fishy for me to mess with. But
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: I get why Chad loves his Carolina Panthers. All right,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: well give me give me a game then that you
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: like the other, the other one that I've really come
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: around on, and I've let go of my personal animus
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Bears plus seven against San Francisco, which I also don't hate. Again,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: I think that's one of those I've just been staring
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: at the lines too much because I told you I
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: I'm fighting every urge in my body not to take
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: a position on the Jets at seven and a half.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Like I'm fighting every every little ounce. I'm not texting
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: my runner to be like, go hit this number for
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: me just because I should take a position like it's
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: over value to the max. Same with the Bears, like
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: the Bears of plus seven against Trey Lands. Again, he
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: started games last year, but come on, like, this is
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: his team now making his first start with the guy
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: he's replacing standing behind him on the sideline. It's a
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: lot for this foreign enters team. And you know we
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: just saw word Kiddles banged up, right, Kiddle is not
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: practicing this week. Something happened to him on Monday. The
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: number one blocking tight end might not be playing in
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: this game for them, which is a big deal for
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: this Bears team if they're gonna stop the run. So
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: I don't hate it, but I still I want to
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: find some chalk again. The CHALKOU was thinking is a
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: number pree people can't get. I just want to hear
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: your opinion chat for contest's sake, minus three and a
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: half Chiefs. Would you put that in now that numbers
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: up the six and a half five and a half?
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: Are you still like it just feels too chalky? And
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: this is kind of a trap. Well, if the delta,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: if we're getting a lot of closing line value on this,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: and it opened it three and a half, and that's
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: what it is in the contest, and now it's a
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: six and a half, I probably six or five and
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: a half, right, I'd probably take them because I'm with you,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: I think there's too much. There's been too much backlash,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: and now the backlash to the backlash on the homes
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: and how good this team can be is beginning. So
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: the time to get the Chiefs was when it was
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. So if that's still available somewhere.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I'd probably go with him. And again we're talking about
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: the time, like the week one is just so wonky.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: Last year the Dolphins they beat the Patriots and they
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: look like they're gonna run with that division against the Bills.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: They did even make the playoffs. The Patriots didn't make
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: to left. So again, I understand why people are so
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: hesitant with this Chief's love because they're just like you know. Again,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: I had a couple of guys mentioned it. It has
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: to be different, right, no tire kill, It's a different offense.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: I just hadn't seen that this preseason. From what I've seen,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: they just looked like as business as usual and the
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: games they played and all their beat writers say the
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: same thing. So I might be way too high coming
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: in on the Chiefs, and I might be paying for that.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: But if you're in your contest, can get three and
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: a half, that's a great number. Now, let's just knock
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: it out. Yet, would we put Tennessee in as a favorite?
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Minus five and a half? Is that one you put
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: on the list? Is that too too risky for you?
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Going against all of our brethren and the professional Brettors
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: who are all on the Giants. I mean you can
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: even open the action app. I'm the only one right
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: now in Tennessee. I think we have seven or eight
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: guys all on the Giants, which is I guess my
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: feeling on this is, I don't you strongly enough that
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: we have to have a favorite, right. Each game is
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: an independent event. It's not like it's not like we
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: can It's not like if we choose five underdogs, all
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: five of those can't cover. Right. So I wrote it
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: in my notes though from last year, and it staid,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: whatever you do, don't put five dogs. Always put one
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: favorite in because I guess we got burned by that
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: a couple of times. Yeah, but then we're just we're
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: reaching for a favorite. I'm not though, like I love
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: these favorites. That just sucks with the lines move so like,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to funk with the fans. But like
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: me and Cha, I want to make a millionaire, and
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: we're trying to help other people in their contests. And
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I've seen other people's contests. They have the same thing.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: They have a Chiefs minus three and a half, which
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: again doesn't help you so much. Here you can tease them,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: right because now they're up to five and five and
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: a half six. But I'm just trying to think of
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: a favorite we can get in there, because it's like,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: I love Green Bay. I know there's no way I
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: can talk to you into it, like you like the
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Vikings and Viking. All the trends point to the Vikings
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: on home divisional doll. I get that Vikings at home
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: as well, Like that's just a spot. You take the Vikings.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I don't want to fight you on it because it's
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: not historically for me to beg Green Bay not a
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: smart bet. That's a four percent bet. But I can't
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: fight my system. I just think it's a bad number.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: The Viking hypes peaking right now. So I'm just trying
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: to find a favorite. Me and you can both be agreed.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: And I would say I like the Chiefs. I like
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: I like the Chiefs, then I like the Titans at
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: those numbers. If the Chiefs at three and a half
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: aren't available in a contest, then I like the Titans
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: at five and a half. But I know it sounds crazy.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: I'd prefer the Seahawks at plus six and a half.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't fight you on that's what that's the problem
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: on our show that like, I love dogs, so it's
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: like I can't fight you on that. Let's then let's
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: go with what we love, all right. We're going with
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Seattle plus six and a half. Let's put our money
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: where our mouth is. Let's have the pass is trying
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: to warn us. I'm trying to listen to Sigmon of
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: the past. He's been through it last year. We're so
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: happy and fresh right now. This was written. I had
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: to date Mark. It's from eleven ten. This is November.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: This was a dark day for your boy. So you
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: know what I think. I think. I think the rule
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: is have at least one favorite, except week one when
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: all the lines are whack and every favorite is overinflated.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: That's true, that's a that's a great point, all right.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: So here's our final five. Lions plus four, Atlanta plus
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: five and a half, Houston plus seven, Steelers plus six
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: and a half, Seattle plus six and a half. I
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: can guarantee you there's not a single person who's thinking
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: about that as being their favorite. Five. I love it
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: is amazing here and you read it out loud, disgusting.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: There might be four wins combined for the five teams
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: that we chose this year. Um, all right, the other
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: thing we have to do, We've done our fave five.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: We've done the BBO of the Big Balls better the week.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say b BOC because I love the
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: big bets on Campus podcast with Colin Wilson, Stucky, let's
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: um talk about survive her and then round Robin Survivor
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: to me Baltimore in Tennessee. Yeah, I've just been fighting
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: with this Ravens game. I'm so bad, which was Zack Wilson,
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: but we kind of knew. We knew it was gonna
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: be Flacco. You know, it's terrifying. This is such a
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: pros verse Joe's game. I just every pro I know
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: it was gonna come back in on this, this number
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Like when the show gets posted
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: tonight or whatever it is, I can see it already
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: being back to six and a half of the Ravens.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you, the professionals are gonna bet this number.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: You're getting a veteran quarterback and Flacco and just one game.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: They'll take this every time like this kind of position
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: for this guy, and I just can't see it like
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: this Ravens team is matched up perfectly to just dominate
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: this Jets team, and again Flacco can have an old
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: all world game. I have no system that can predict that.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: All I can do is us is the numbers at hand.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: So when I'm putting in the most likely teams to
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: win Week one, Ravens are number one, no doubt. Number
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: two is a forty Niners. I don't feel comfortable with
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: the forty Niners though, so I've just moved them off.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do them like I've I've I've thought
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: about this for literally three months about who the hell
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: we're gonna take for this Week one. I can't do with.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I just do not want to do that against this
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Bears team that could easily steal this game week one.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: So it just comes down to me, like Chad, I
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: just said, Ravens Tennessee. So in our main one chat,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: I'd rather do the Ravens to get him out of
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: the way. But I see why you want to get
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: to Tennessee out of the way right Tennessee is healthy
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: right now and they we have faith in them right now.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Things could change quick with the Tennessee team and we
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: can never even want to use them ever. Again, so
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: I get both sides for me, most comfortable play for
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: our big money million dollar maker survivor pool. Let's just
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: use the Ravens. Get him out Ravens it is. I'm
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: good with that. Before we get to Scooch Roulette, which
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: is our head to head, I will let you choose first.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Let's do our money line. Underdog ron robin are so
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: chat from my favorite round robin? Are gross underdog round
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: robin that people hate it on, but it cash nine
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: out of eighteen weeks. Or maybe we skipped week one,
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: but I know when nine and seven or nine and eight.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Let's start off right away. Steelers plus two twenty on
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: the road against since love a divisional dog on the
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: road against the team that lost the Super Bowl. We
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: take this every time. Somebody gotta be all in, for
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: everybody to be all in. Texans plus against the cold
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Steam that historically is terrible. On opening week again, we
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: talked about they lost to a one in fifteen Jags,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: the only one of this season for the Jaguars, hold
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: your nose, throw them in this round robin, crazy max value.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Next up the Atlanta Falcons. Chad knows. We talked about
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: we just love these divisional home dogs. And this is
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: a great spot for Atlanta team playing again against a
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: rookie head coach on the road with Jamis Winston who
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: loves to throw picks. Give it to me every time.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: I love this number so much. This is gonna be
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: in a lot of my like you know, if I'm
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: doing multiple round Robbins, I'll probably the land it in
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: a decent amount of them, including the Texans as well.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Next up the lines, How can we forget about the Lions? Right?
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Plus one sixty five? Right now plus one sixty Depending
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: on what number you can get, everyone's gonna be on.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: It's a trendy dog. I don't care. I love the
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: lines that pull the upside off shock the world. Start
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: the season where they win if they're going I don't
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: even know, was oh in ten last year to start
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: the year? Do a lines? This is? This is it?
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: So for the last one chat, what do you think
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: we should fill in for our fifth spot, Let's do
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: the Jags against the Commanders plus one tint in the
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: action app Yeah, plus one twenty. You know it's a
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: little bit riskier than betting the Vikings, but we're both
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: big fan of the Jags. We like him as a
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: long shot to win the a f C South. We're
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: both invested heavily and Trevor Lawrence props for the year.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Let's add the Jacks. Our five for the round robin
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: will be the Steelers, the Falcons, the Texans, the Lions
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: and the Jags. That is for the money line under
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: dog round robin parlay. Just go out there and try
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: to have fun. You know, you know, having fun is
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: the name of the game. Reminder our PHASEE five right now,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: the teams that we like most again follow the phaves
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: five in the Action Network gap. We will post these
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. We reserve the right for injuries, to update
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: line moves, etcetera. Um, But right now we like the
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: Lions plus four, Atlanta plus five and a half, Houston
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: plus seven, Seattle plus six and a half, Steelers plus
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: six and a half. It's the grossest PHASEE five you
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: can get from any betting podcast, but we are professionals.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: All right, it's time for scooch Roulette. When all hope
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: is lost, all that's left is relief. Well, let's play
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: scooch Roulette. Simon. All right, I guess I am the
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: defending champion. Let's see now. I like to pick now.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: I love by what I think Chad will love, which
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: is a fun game. I am so many that I
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: love no matter what you pick, like I've got one
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: because early days check back in week six, cheat won't
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: be so chippy. No, I'm never more confident than I
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: am before something starts. I mean, I gotta do it.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: I'm all in on it. I put my flag on it.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna look like a jackass if it doesn't hit
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: somebody as we'll lean into it. Plus seven and a
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: half Houston at Fandal give it to me on scuture
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: let Wow, I am gonna go on. I'm hating it
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: as I say it. Atlanta plus five and a half
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: didn't didn't We make a pact that we would never ever,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: ever ever bet the Falcons again. That was last year.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: They got as good last year, but we we wised up.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: We made money down the road fadeing them. But no,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: it's a new year, Mariotta our savior. Oh my god. Reminder,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: go check out the Action Network app. Download it two
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: handles that you want to follow the It's five, which
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: we will update Sunday afternoon with our final five that
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Simon and I put into our contest another handle, the
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: favorite podcast has everything else, big balls, better the Week,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: our executive decision, our Simon says, our foxhole. So those
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: are what you need to follow if you want to
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: keep track of everything we're talking about here. I am
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: Chad Milman. He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is Matt Mitchell.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Rate review, Subscribe, download us Apple Podcasts, Spotify, leave us
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: until next time. I Love you, And there he goes
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: post to cost Can he make it? Yes he can.