Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / What do the Markets Think About a 2028 AOC Presidency?

Transcript

What do the Markets Think About a 2028 AOC Presidency? · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:03
  We have a major development in 2028.
• 0:05
  A new leader
• 0:07
  in the prediction markets.
• 0:08
  We'll tell you about that in here,
• 0:09
  in here just a second,
• 0:10
  honestly,
• 0:11
  because we also have to do that.
• 0:12
  We have to do Pat Gray as well.
• 0:13
  We're gonna bring him in.
• 0:15
  He's got Mitch McConnell talk.
• 0:16
  Uh,
• 0:17
  is Mitch coming back ever?
• 0:20
  We do aliens exist?
• 0:22
  And also,
• 0:23
  uh,
• 0:23
  Caroline Leavitt,
• 0:24
  the,
• 0:24
  the Democratic midterms,
• 0:25
  Abdul El Sayed,
• 0:26
  lots of stuff to talk to Pat about,
• 0:27
  so
• 0:28
  we'll get to that as well.
• 0:29
  We'd love you to join us on PredictableShow.com.
• 0:31
  There's a free membership there you can do with your email,
• 0:34
  lots of information,
• 0:35
  the great stuff,
• 0:36
  conversation about prediction markets
• 0:38
  and the elections generally.
• 0:39
  And of course,
• 0:40
  we have our premium tier as well at predictableshow.com.
• 0:44
  Let's get the show started.
• 1:00
  82 days
• 1:02
  until the election.
• 1:03
  82 days,
• 1:05
  we are in that,
• 1:06
  like,
• 1:06
  uh,
• 1:06
  the final stretch.
• 1:07
  There's a few more primaries coming up and then we get into
• 1:11
  freak out time.
• 1:11
  Everyone's going to panic.
• 1:13
  Uh,
• 1:13
  and it is one of those situations where
• 1:15
  we,
• 1:17
  we have a road that is,
• 1:18
  uh,
• 1:20
  very,
• 1:20
  very interesting,
• 1:21
  and there are a lot of opportunities.
• 1:23
  If you wanna be bold,
• 1:25
  you could find really big opportunities in these markets.
• 1:28
  Uh,
• 1:28
  but also just,
• 1:29
  uh,
• 1:29
  uh,
• 1:29
  sort of conservative,
• 1:31
  uh,
• 1:31
  investments that you can make a great return over the next few months.
• 1:35
  Lots of those options to give you.
• 1:36
  We give you all those on predictableShow.com.
• 1:38
  Obviously,
• 1:39
  as,
• 1:39
  uh,
• 1:39
  on a show,
• 1:40
  we can't get to every single,
• 1:41
  uh,
• 1:41
  every single market,
• 1:42
  every single thing.
• 1:43
  Uh,
• 1:43
  we're time-limited there,
• 1:44
  but at least with the premium tier,
• 1:45
  you get every single prediction that I have,
• 1:47
  every single position that I hold.
• 1:50
  Excuse me.
• 1:50
  And,
• 1:51
  uh,
• 1:51
  that is,
• 1:51
  uh,
• 1:52
  part of the premium tier.
• 1:53
  There's over 200 of them.
• 1:54
  We're gonna have them updated for you,
• 1:55
  uh,
• 1:56
  tomorrow.
• 1:56
  Uh,
• 1:57
  and,
• 1:57
  uh,
• 1:57
  we do that,
• 1:58
  uh,
• 1:58
  all the time in the premium chat.
• 2:00
  So,
• 2:01
  great community,
• 2:01
  we'd love you to join us,
• 2:02
  Predictableshow.com.
• 2:04
  Now,
• 2:05
  let me talk to you about AOC.
• 2:06
  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,
• 2:10
  she's leaving her 2028 options
• 2:13
  open.
• 2:14
  She's been kind of flirting with this.
• 2:16
  She's leaving her options open while she's freezing her eggs.
• 2:19
  That's a whole another storyline,
• 2:21
  honestly,
• 2:21
  with AOC right now.
• 2:22
  Uh,
• 2:23
  but so she's doing the egg freezing thing,
• 2:25
  she's on social media all the time.
• 2:27
  Nothing of that is new,
• 2:28
  and she's keeping this sort of option open to run
• 2:31
  in 2028.
• 2:32
  1 thing I think we've seen
• 2:34
  over the years.
• 2:35
  And I think
• 2:36
  this isn't a a completely true rule,
• 2:38
  but it does feel true,
• 2:40
  um,
• 2:41
  at least common,
• 2:42
  which is when you have a moment,
• 2:44
  when you have an opening
• 2:45
  at the presidency of the United States,
• 2:47
  take it.
• 2:48
  Uh,
• 2:49
  take that opening,
• 2:50
  give it a shot.
• 2:51
  Because a lot of times you,
• 2:52
  you can outsmart yourself by waiting.
• 2:54
  And,
• 2:55
  uh,
• 2:55
  we saw this like,
• 2:56
  for example,
• 2:56
  you think of a person like Chris Christie,
• 2:58
  uh,
• 2:58
  back in,
• 2:59
  was it 2012?
• 3:01
  I think it was 2012,
• 3:02
  yeah,
• 3:02
  it was,
• 3:02
  uh,
• 3:03
  when Obama was going for his second term,
• 3:04
  and Christie was kind of the hot new thing,
• 3:06
  uh,
• 3:07
  you know,
• 3:07
  not,
• 3:07
  not appearance-wise,
• 3:08
  uh,
• 3:09
  necessarily,
• 3:09
  but
• 3:10
  he was,
• 3:10
  uh,
• 3:10
  kind of a big thing on the Republican side,
• 3:12
  right?
• 3:12
  Uh,
• 3:13
  blue,
• 3:13
  uh,
• 3:14
  blue state governor
• 3:15
  was popular,
• 3:16
  he had done things that were relatively conservative,
• 3:19
  getting,
• 3:19
  you know,
• 3:20
  going after some union stuff,
• 3:21
  a lot of regulation stuff,
• 3:23
  he had cut taxes.
• 3:24
  And he was a,
• 3:26
  a very prominent figure going into 2012.
• 3:28
  Decided not to run,
• 3:29
  thought,
• 3:29
  you know what,
• 3:30
  I'm not gonna take on Obama,
• 3:31
  I'll go for it in 2016.
• 3:32
  We all know how that worked out.
• 3:34
  Not well,
• 3:34
  not well.
• 3:35
  I don't know if he ever cleared 3% in a poll.
• 3:37
  Uh,
• 3:37
  it just,
• 3:38
  no one was interested four years later.
• 3:40
  We are a fickle group,
• 3:42
  us Americans,
• 3:42
  and usually we get kind of bored of people.
• 3:44
  We're like,
• 3:45
  no,
• 3:45
  you know,
• 3:46
  there's been different,
• 3:46
  I mean,
• 3:47
  Donald Trump has obviously,
• 3:48
  you know,
• 3:48
  dominated the discourse in this country for a decade.
• 3:51
  Uh,
• 3:51
  he was able to come back and
• 3:52
  do it again,
• 3:53
  uh,
• 3:53
  though he basically ran that entire time,
• 3:55
  he didn't,
• 3:56
  he didn't choose not to run,
• 3:58
  but he did a few times earlier.
• 3:59
  So Trump is a very weird situation,
• 4:01
  as you might know,
• 4:02
  as he might admit,
• 4:03
  uh,
• 4:04
  a bit of an outlier,
• 4:04
  right,
• 4:05
  like a bit of a unique figure in American history,
• 4:07
  but usually when you're just kind of like a person that people know,
• 4:10
  and you're like,
• 4:11
  ah,
• 4:11
  I'll just wait a few years,
• 4:13
  it doesn't always work out all that well.
• 4:15
  Um,
• 4:15
  especially in an environment where there's gonna be a
• 4:17
  lot of people running for the Democratic nomination.
• 4:19
  Kamala Harris is still talking about that as well.
• 4:22
  Kamala Harris's chances of beating Newsom and AOC in new 2028 poll.
• 4:28
  You know,
• 4:28
  I will say
• 4:29
  it's interesting what you're going through.
• 4:30
  I was just mentioning predictableShow.com and the premium tier.
• 4:32
  We have over 200 of my,
• 4:33
  uh,
• 4:34
  prediction market positions listed there for you to peruse,
• 4:37
  uh,
• 4:37
  maybe join in on,
• 4:39
  maybe make fun of.
• 4:40
  Uh,
• 4:40
  I,
• 4:41
  uh,
• 4:41
  as I was going through this list,
• 4:42
  I was looking at them and I was like,
• 4:43
  a lot of these I'm,
• 4:44
  I'm relatively proud of,
• 4:45
  right?
• 4:45
  Like they're positions,
• 4:46
  some of them were positions that I took at,
• 4:48
  you know,
• 4:48
  50 cents.
• 4:48
  They're already at 98 or 99.
• 4:50
  Some of them I think I really feel comfortable about.
• 4:53
  Some of the ones that aren't going to hit.
• 4:55
  I'm totally fine with my thinking and,
• 4:57
  and process on them.
• 4:59
  And honestly,
• 5:00
  like,
• 5:00
  I look at it and I'm like,
• 5:01
  you know what?
• 5:01
  I feel good about that one.
• 5:02
  I feel good.
• 5:03
  I feel like I,
• 5:04
  I,
• 5:04
  I took a good position.
• 5:05
  It was the right thing to do.
• 5:07
  The value was there,
• 5:08
  didn't work out.
• 5:09
  One of the things we talk about all the time on this program is finding
• 5:12
  value.
• 5:13
  Value doesn't necessarily mean winning every time.
• 5:16
  And,
• 5:16
  you know,
• 5:17
  sometimes you take something at 30%,
• 5:19
  and you believe there's a 70% chance of it happening,
• 5:21
  and it doesn't happen.
• 5:22
  And if you are comfortable with understanding that uh 30% of the
• 5:27
  time in a situation like that you're not going to win,
• 5:29
  taking those value picks works a lot.
• 5:31
  We've hit those a lot
• 5:32
  with uh with really small percentage values in this particular election year.
• 5:38
  A lot of these where we bought in very,
• 5:39
  very low at,
• 5:40
  you know,
• 5:40
  $0.5
• 5:41
  or 1 cent or 2 cents
• 5:43
  on something we thought maybe had a 10% chance of happening.
• 5:46
  And because of that we've hit a lot of those.
• 5:48
  That's just value,
• 5:49
  right?
• 5:50
  It doesn't mean that they necessarily even go on to win,
• 5:52
  but you can make a profit as it goes up to 10 or 15 or 20%
• 5:56
  as time goes on.
• 5:56
  So we look for that value all the time.
• 5:58
  We're not always expecting to win those positions.
• 6:00
  When it comes to elections,
• 6:01
  you'll notice like when I say like,
• 6:03
  you know,
• 6:03
  we went 27 and 2
• 6:05
  in this past election.
• 6:07
  week during the primary,
• 6:08
  a lot of times with elections there's so many options.
• 6:10
  I feel like,
• 6:10
  you know,
• 6:11
  let's take
• 6:11
  what I feel like are close to
• 6:13
  sure things,
• 6:14
  or I can find tons and tons of value,
• 6:17
  and that's why we're able to hit high numbers,
• 6:18
  but I don't expect to hit all those,
• 6:20
  you know,
• 6:20
  I,
• 6:20
  I took a position on
• 6:23
  American League Rookie of the Year,
• 6:24
  a guy named Kaz Aakamoto.
• 6:25
  He's on the Blue Jays,
• 6:26
  and,
• 6:27
  you know,
• 6:27
  like he's an older guy,
• 6:29
  uh,
• 6:29
  he's not a 25-year-old rookie.
• 6:31
  He's a,
• 6:31
  you know,
• 6:31
  in his 30s.
• 6:32
  He came from Japan,
• 6:33
  was a great player over in Japan.
• 6:35
  And people didn't really think of him as a rookie,
• 6:36
  and I took a position on him as a rookie.
• 6:38
  I,
• 6:38
  he's gonna wind up probably hitting 35 home runs this year
• 6:41
  and probably finishing like 3rd.
• 6:43
  And it's not gonna work.
• 6:44
  I'm probably gonna lose my position on that,
• 6:46
  but I feel comfortable with my process on that.
• 6:48
  Uh,
• 6:48
  not because,
• 6:49
  uh,
• 6:49
  and people are like,
• 6:49
  oh,
• 6:49
  well,
• 6:50
  you just like the Blue Jays,
• 6:51
  which is bizarrely true.
• 6:52
  And if you don't know that about me,
• 6:53
  I'm a Toronto Blue Jays fan.
• 6:55
  Um,
• 6:55
  uh,
• 6:55
  but
• 6:56
  actually that makes me less likely to make a Blue Jack.
• 6:59
  I'm,
• 7:00
  I'm more,
• 7:00
  more likely to not do it.
• 7:01
  I really like my process there and I'm happy about it.
• 7:03
  I,
• 7:03
  I said that about the Jalen Brunson on the cover of,
• 7:06
  uh,
• 7:06
  NBA 2K.
• 7:07
  I like the process there,
• 7:08
  even though we were wrong.
• 7:09
  I like the process there.
• 7:10
  I'm OK.
• 7:10
  I'm comfortable losing that.
• 7:12
  Kamala Harris,
• 7:12
  I get,
• 7:13
  I say all that basically to lead you to this,
• 7:14
  which is
• 7:16
  I have Kamala Harris will not run as a position
• 7:18
  out of that 200 positions that are listed on PredictableShow.com,
• 7:21
  and that was like the probably the worst one
• 7:24
  because I was like,
• 7:24
  what was I thinking?
• 7:25
  Like her ego wasn't big enough to try this again.
• 7:27
  Like I,
• 7:28
  I don't know what I was thinking.
• 7:29
  I I thought people were done with her,
• 7:30
  and she'd realized that.
• 7:32
  And that,
• 7:32
  I don't know,
• 7:32
  it seems insane to me now,
• 7:34
  but
• 7:34
  these things happen in prediction,
• 7:35
  Marcus,
• 7:36
  sometimes you're wrong.
• 7:36
  Anyway,
• 7:37
  uh,
• 7:37
  let me show you,
• 7:38
  uh,
• 7:38
  what this looks like right now.
• 7:39
  The Democratic nominee for president of the United States,
• 7:42
  you say is Kamala Harris leading.
• 7:43
  Well,
• 7:44
  she's the big favorite,
• 7:44
  right?
• 7:45
  No,
• 7:45
  she's not even in the top three.
• 7:47
  She's the favorite in the polls right now,
• 7:49
  not even in the top 3 to actually win it.
• 7:52
  And can we zoom in maybe to like a month here real quick,
• 7:55
  Adam?
• 7:56
  You see the blue line on the top is Gavin Newsom,
• 7:58
  who's been the favorite for a while.
• 7:59
  Uh,
• 7:59
  Jon Ossoff was,
• 8:00
  uh,
• 8:01
  2nd,
• 8:01
  uh,
• 8:02
  intermittently with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,
• 8:04
  but a big thing happened yesterday.
• 8:06
  For the 1st time,
• 8:07
  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has become the favorite,
• 8:10
  the favorite
• 8:11
  to be the nominee
• 8:13
  for the president.
• 8:13
  And,
• 8:13
  and,
• 8:13
  you know,
• 8:14
  this is one thing where,
• 8:15
  look,
• 8:15
  I'm not a poll hater.
• 8:17
  A lot of people are.
• 8:17
  A lot of people hate polls.
• 8:18
  A lot of people say never listen to polls.
• 8:20
  That's not what I think at all.
• 8:23
  And this is a guy,
• 8:23
  it is coming from a guy who just,
• 8:25
  uh,
• 8:26
  got destroyed,
• 8:27
  uh,
• 8:27
  with Francesca Hong,
• 8:28
  uh,
• 8:28
  this week.
• 8:29
  OK.
• 8:29
  So I,
• 8:30
  I realize that they are bad at times and,
• 8:32
  and,
• 8:33
  and mistakes
• 8:34
  are made.
• 8:35
  But what,
• 8:35
  usually what we get out of polls,
• 8:37
  and I think of this,
• 8:38
  I try to explain it this way all the time.
• 8:40
  Uh,
• 8:40
  polling
• 8:41
  is,
• 8:42
  is a tool.
• 8:43
  It is a,
• 8:44
  it is a,
• 8:44
  it is not a surgical tool.
• 8:46
  It is a blunt object.
• 8:48
  Polling can you tell you
• 8:50
  typically
• 8:51
  generalities.
• 8:52
  It can tell you,
• 8:53
  generally speaking,
• 8:54
  what's going to happen.
• 8:55
  It can't,
• 8:56
  it,
• 8:56
  it is not designed,
• 8:58
  nor is it capable of telling you the difference in that Hong versus
• 9:02
  Crowley race down to the 3000 votes that it wound up being the determinative factor.
• 9:07
  You,
• 9:08
  polls can give you generalities,
• 9:10
  which is why typically I look for cushions in them.
• 9:13
  Uh,
• 9:13
  you know,
• 9:14
  the 2024
• 9:15
  election is a good example of that,
• 9:17
  uh,
• 9:17
  or excuse me,
• 9:17
  2020.
• 9:18
  Um,
• 9:19
  I thought that Joe Biden was gonna win that election.
• 9:21
  Now look,
• 9:22
  I don't,
• 9:22
  I didn't want him to win that election.
• 9:24
  Uh,
• 9:24
  frankly,
• 9:25
  I did not think he was a very good president.
• 9:27
  But that being said,
• 9:29
  uh,
• 9:29
  I did think he was going to win,
• 9:30
  and I thought he had enough of a cushion that even if the polls were wrong,
• 9:34
  that he would still win.
• 9:36
  And,
• 9:37
  uh,
• 9:37
  you know,
• 9:38
  of course there's more to it than just that.
• 9:40
  There's fundamentals and there's fundraising,
• 9:42
  and there's a million different things that go into
• 9:44
  a model like that and a consideration like that.
• 9:47
  But
• 9:48
  one of the reasons was,
• 9:49
  we had a little room to work with on that.
• 9:51
  He was favored by,
• 9:52
  I don't know,
• 9:52
  I don't remember what the polling was,
• 9:53
  but it was,
• 9:53
  you know,
• 9:54
  7 or 8 points.
• 9:55
  He only wound up winning by a couple.
• 9:56
  And so,
• 9:57
  actually the polls were wrong in a lot of those states,
• 9:59
  and they were wrong the way we kind of predicted they would be wrong.
• 10:02
  Uh,
• 10:03
  usually,
• 10:03
  and when Donald Trump's involved in a,
• 10:05
  in a,
• 10:05
  in an election,
• 10:06
  it,
• 10:06
  the polls usually are wrong
• 10:08
  and undercount what Trump will get.
• 10:10
  But there was enough of a gap there that he wound up winning.
• 10:12
  Again,
• 10:13
  you could talk about.
• 10:13
  Whatever you want to talk about on the outskirts of that election,
• 10:15
  but that was,
• 10:16
  that was part of the reasoning why
• 10:18
  we did very,
• 10:18
  very well in 2020.
• 10:19
  If you,
• 10:20
  uh,
• 10:20
  were with us at the time,
• 10:21
  we called the electoral count numbers exactly correct in that election,
• 10:25
  and that wound up being very profitable for us,
• 10:28
  but that was also just a pro,
• 10:29
  you know,
• 10:29
  partially a.
• 10:31
  Um,
• 10:31
  a position of trying to understand what the weaknesses of polling are.
• 10:34
  Polling is great,
• 10:35
  but this is a great example where prediction
• 10:36
  markets are far vastly superior to polling.
• 10:39
  Kamala Harris should not be the favorite
• 10:42
  in a poll
• 10:43
  for the Democratic National,
• 10:44
  uh,
• 10:44
  nomination.
• 10:45
  It is possible she wins.
• 10:47
  It is possible.
• 10:49
  It would be completely bonkers and insane for the Democrats to do that.
• 10:54
  But the reason she's ahead right now is not because she's actually the favorite,
• 10:57
  it's because of name recognition.
• 10:59
  She's still seen as a presidential person.
• 11:01
  She is,
• 11:02
  uh,
• 11:02
  the Democrats that will nominate her.
• 11:04
  The most recent person they voted for is Kamala Harris.
• 11:08
  She's now in the rearview mirror as a person that they look back at and say,
• 11:12
  gosh,
• 11:12
  I wish she would have won.
• 11:14
  That's how Democrats look at it.
• 11:15
  They don't look at it as,
• 11:16
  uh,
• 11:17
  well,
• 11:17
  you know,
• 11:17
  she failed,
• 11:18
  or,
• 11:18
  you know,
• 11:19
  they,
• 11:19
  they think it was stacked against her for a million different reasons.
• 11:21
  Anyway,
• 11:22
  uh,
• 11:22
  give me that presidential nomination,
• 11:24
  uh,
• 11:24
  count one more time.
• 11:25
  Uh,
• 11:26
  I think this nomination count is actually relatively,
• 11:29
  uh,
• 11:29
  uh,
• 11:30
  pretty good,
• 11:30
  uh,
• 11:30
  honestly,
• 11:31
  where it's priced.
• 11:32
  Uh,
• 11:32
  AOC at 17%,
• 11:33
  Newsom now at 17%.
• 11:34
  That's been tied since we started talking about it.
• 11:37
  You see in third place,
• 11:37
  Jon Ossoff,
• 11:38
  which is,
• 11:38
  I think he is a competitor.
• 11:40
  He's a guy,
• 11:40
  by the way,
• 11:40
  I have a pretty decent sized position on
• 11:43
  for November of this year to win in Georgia.
• 11:45
  Um,
• 11:46
  it has risen up into the 80s.
• 11:48
  There may still be some value there.
• 11:50
  Um,
• 11:50
  scroll down though,
• 11:51
  give me the other names.
• 11:51
  What do we have?
• 11:52
  Let's look at the list here.
• 11:53
  AOC is first,
• 11:54
  uh,
• 11:54
  tied with Newsom at 17%,
• 11:56
  Ossoff at 13%,
• 11:57
  Kamala Harris at 9.5%. They see her
• 12:00
  prediction markets here as the fourth choice.
• 12:02
  Mark Kelly,
• 12:03
  Pete Buttigieg,
• 12:04
  Josh Shapiro.
• 12:06
  Shapiro is an interesting one in that like,
• 12:07
  he may very well be
• 12:09
  the candidate they should choose in a lot of ways.
• 12:12
  Like he comes off occasionally as moderate,
• 12:14
  he's a very good communicator,
• 12:15
  he's a popular governor in a,
• 12:17
  in the swingiest of swing states,
• 12:19
  Pennsylvania,
• 12:20
  and yet they have him at 4.6%. I don't wanna say that a big reason for that is the,
• 12:24
  the turning of the.
• 12:25
  Democratic Party against Israel
• 12:26
  and generally speaking,
• 12:28
  uh,
• 12:28
  interests aligned with Jews,
• 12:30
  uh,
• 12:30
  but,
• 12:30
  uh,
• 12:31
  you know,
• 12:31
  I guess it's kind of a big reason
• 12:33
  there.
• 12:33
  Rahm Emanuel Andy Bashir is the Kentucky governor.
• 12:37
  Uh,
• 12:37
  JB Pritzker,
• 12:38
  I mean JB Pritzker is not gonna win that nomination.
• 12:40
  West West Moore is another one,
• 12:42
  and there's an interesting value there on West,
• 12:43
  on West Moore,
• 12:45
  uh,
• 12:45
  as I think he probably will run.
• 12:47
  Uh,
• 12:47
  he's another guy I have a position on to win his
• 12:50
  race here even though there's not a ton of profit there.
• 12:52
  He's basically a sure thing,
• 12:53
  I think,
• 12:53
  in Maryland.
• 12:54
  Uh,
• 12:54
  Rona,
• 12:55
  after Sayed,
• 12:56
  yeah,
• 12:56
  I don't think that's happening.
• 12:57
  Tallarico,
• 12:58
  OK,
• 12:58
  we're down to basically,
• 12:59
  uh,
• 12:59
  no one.
• 13:01
  I wanna bring something up about this particular market.
• 13:04
  And this is a key thing to understand
• 13:06
  about this market.
• 13:06
  It's probably the most popular market.
• 13:08
  Did they,
• 13:08
  what do you have a volume number on that?
• 13:09
  I don't know if that's,
• 13:10
  that's on that screen or not,
• 13:11
  um,
• 13:12
  that we were just looking at.
• 13:13
  How much money goes into the presidential nominations markets,
• 13:16
  tons.
• 13:16
  If you wanna give me
• 13:17
  178 million so far,
• 13:19
  OK,
• 13:20
  uh,
• 13:20
  give me the 2028 presidential election winner.
• 13:22
  This is the,
• 13:22
  uh,
• 13:23
  this is,
• 13:23
  I don't know if it's,
• 13:24
  uh,
• 13:24
  is it person or is it party,
• 13:26
  uh,
• 13:26
  this next market.
• 13:27
  Uh,
• 13:27
  it is person.
• 13:28
  Uh,
• 13:29
  so the favorite
• 13:29
  of all people
• 13:30
  would be JD Vance,
• 13:31
  #1,
• 13:32
  Marco Rubio,
• 13:33
  #2,
• 13:34
  which is interesting that two Republicans would lead this in a,
• 13:36
  in a,
• 13:37
  in a race.
• 13:37
  I think overall they're probably the slight underdogs in,
• 13:40
  uh,
• 13:40
  Gavin Newsom at 11%,
• 13:42
  uh,
• 13:42
  and it goes down.
• 13:43
  Any other Republicans on that list,
• 13:44
  I,
• 13:44
  I,
• 13:45
  JD Vance and Marco Rubio are kind of the two top,
• 13:47
  uh,
• 13:47
  people that are being considered.
• 13:49
  The next Republican
• 13:50
  is Rhonda Santis at like 3%,
• 13:53
  so.
• 13:53
  That is,
• 13:54
  uh,
• 13:54
  then you have Donald Trump,
• 13:56
  who would have to amend the Constitution to win,
• 13:59
  but he's there at 3%.
• 14:00
  Uh,
• 14:00
  I actually have a,
• 14:02
  I have a few shares of it.
• 14:03
  I gotta be honest with you.
• 14:04
  My guess is,
• 14:05
  once we get past this midterms,
• 14:06
  Trump at least floats it a few times,
• 14:08
  and when he does,
• 14:09
  it's gonna shoot up to 5%,
• 14:11
  and I'm going to cash out.
• 14:12
  That's just something I'm just telling you right now.
• 14:14
  I don't know if that's true.
• 14:15
  I'm just telling you right now it's going to be a fun trade
• 14:17
  to watch because he can't constitutionally be president for a third term.
• 14:21
  I wouldn't put it past him to try.
• 14:23
  You know,
• 14:24
  just,
• 14:24
  just to float it,
• 14:25
  just to kind of make,
• 14:26
  make the media a little nervous.
• 14:27
  I think that'll happen.
• 14:28
  Anyway,
• 14:29
  uh,
• 14:29
  again,
• 14:29
  how much is that,
• 14:30
  and I missed the,
• 14:31
  um,
• 14:31
  uh,
• 14:31
  volume in that market,
• 14:32
  Adam,
• 14:32
  do you have that?
• 14:33
  Or
• 14:34
  59 million to,
• 14:35
  to for the who's gonna win there.
• 14:36
  Plus you have the party version.
• 14:37
  Anyway,
• 14:38
  these are the most popular
• 14:39
  pres uh markets
• 14:41
  when it comes to politics on Calci and Polymarket and predicted and everywhere.
• 14:45
  And the reason for that is,
• 14:46
  it's kind of the thing we talk about the most.
• 14:48
  It's like,
• 14:48
  who's gonna win the Super Bowl this year,
• 14:50
  is a lot more popular of a conversation than
• 14:52
  who's gonna win
• 14:53
  in week 6 in Jacksonville,
• 14:55
  right?
• 14:55
  Like that's just,
• 14:56
  it's just the truth of the matter.
• 14:58
  And
• 14:59
  As an investor in these markets though,
• 15:01
  you really have to think about,
• 15:03
  um,
• 15:04
  uh,
• 15:05
  whether it's worth your money
• 15:07
  to get into a market like this.
• 15:08
  You want to put a marker position in,
• 15:10
  the smallest position that we have to kind of like
• 15:12
  put your,
• 15:12
  put your opinion in,
• 15:13
  fine.
• 15:14
  Um,
• 15:15
  there are things you can do in these markets.
• 15:16
  I'll talk about them here in a second,
• 15:17
  but it comes back to one of our constitutional amendments,
• 15:19
  and that constitutional amendment,
• 15:20
  of course,
• 15:21
  the number of that is very,
• 15:23
  very easy to remember,
• 15:24
  and I always do remember.
• 15:25
  That's one of the things that I do all the time.
• 15:28
  I remember which number this is,
• 15:30
  of course,
• 15:31
  as I
• 15:32
  fill
• 15:33
  and fill,
• 15:33
  what the heck is it?
• 15:34
  It's one of,
• 15:35
  I know it's on here.
• 15:36
  Um,
• 15:37
  it's not time equals risk.
• 15:38
  It is,
• 15:39
  ah,
• 15:39
  number 7.
• 15:42
  The Seventh Amendment to the
• 15:44
  I'm very well prepared.
• 15:45
  The Seventh Amendment to the predictable Constitution is know your APR
• 15:49
  and,
• 15:49
  uh,
• 15:50
  it is,
• 15:50
  uh,
• 15:51
  it's really difficult,
• 15:52
  honestly,
• 15:52
  to know
• 15:53
  something that's gonna happen in 2 years anyway.
• 15:55
  It's hard to predict out 2 years.
• 15:57
  This is a difficult,
• 15:58
  difficult
• 15:59
  race,
• 15:59
  and if you think about what would happen in a race like this,
• 16:01
  let's say you pick
• 16:02
  JD Vance.
• 16:03
  He's at 19%
• 16:04
  to win the election.
• 16:06
  That doesn't pay out
• 16:07
  until
• 16:08
  probably November 2028.
• 16:11
  So now you're talking about,
• 16:12
  if you're right,
• 16:13
  getting,
• 16:14
  even if everything goes perfectly with that investment,
• 16:16
  you're getting 80% over two years,
• 16:18
  which is good,
• 16:19
  it's a good return.
• 16:21
  However,
• 16:21
  there's a lot of risk there.
• 16:22
  You have actual challengers like a Marco Rubio who could.
• 16:25
  I,
• 16:25
  I think Vance is a much better value than Rubio,
• 16:28
  uh,
• 16:28
  personally.
• 16:29
  I think Vance is gonna be the more likely candidate.
• 16:31
  Um,
• 16:31
  but
• 16:32
  even you,
• 16:32
  you have to get them there.
• 16:33
  It won't get up to probably 50%
• 16:36
  until
• 16:37
  the summer of 2028.
• 16:39
  So you,
• 16:40
  you've got a,
• 16:41
  that,
• 16:41
  that,
• 16:41
  that range,
• 16:42
  which is,
• 16:42
  you know,
• 16:42
  30 points and it would be a good return,
• 16:45
  is,
• 16:45
  is,
• 16:45
  is spread out by time.
• 16:48
  You have that.
• 16:49
  Then you have all the risks of,
• 16:50
  who knows,
• 16:50
  could be a Democratic year,
• 16:52
  uh,
• 16:52
  JD Vance could decide not to run,
• 16:54
  uh,
• 16:55
  another Republican could run.
• 16:56
  Donald Trump Junior might jump in and Donald Trump might endorse him.
• 17:00
  There's 100 different things that could happen,
• 17:01
  so it's a risky market to get in in the first place,
• 17:04
  and really the way to play those markets is kind of like the ups and downs of it,
• 17:07
  if you want to get,
• 17:07
  uh,
• 17:08
  intricate.
• 17:08
  The only other way I would say is if you,
• 17:10
  if you,
• 17:10
  if there's a long shot on that list who really kind of checks the box for you.
• 17:14
  Uh,
• 17:15
  that's something to consider.
• 17:16
  If you have somebody at 1% that you think might go to 5% and you can kind of get out of it,
• 17:20
  uh,
• 17:20
  or,
• 17:20
  uh,
• 17:21
  or,
• 17:21
  or something of that nature,
• 17:23
  that's good.
• 17:23
  And I would just say taking the no position on these people
• 17:26
  is in a way
• 17:27
  worse.
• 17:27
  I have no positions cause I,
• 17:29
  they're basically marker positions or small positions.
• 17:32
  I'm sorry,
• 17:32
  my voice is uh
• 17:33
  cracking a little bit here.
• 17:36
  Uh,
• 17:37
  there's no,
• 17:37
  if you take a no position on
• 17:39
  JD Vance,
• 17:40
  he's like,
• 17:40
  you know what,
• 17:40
  I think it's gonna be Marco Rubio or a Democrat.
• 17:42
  You might win that,
• 17:43
  but again,
• 17:43
  you're talking about 2 years,
• 17:46
  uh,
• 17:46
  and getting it,
• 17:47
  you know,
• 17:47
  uh,
• 17:47
  25% return in 2 years.
• 17:49
  And
• 17:50
  look,
• 17:51
  If you're talking about comparing that to a traditional investment,
• 17:55
  if you're talking about comparing that to your savings account,
• 17:58
  it's wonderful.
• 18:00
  If you're talking about doing what you can do here
• 18:02
  in
• 18:03
  the elections coming up,
• 18:05
  in a primary next week,
• 18:06
  in a,
• 18:07
  in a,
• 18:07
  in a,
• 18:07
  in a close to a sure thing that's a,
• 18:09
  that's,
• 18:09
  you know,
• 18:10
  resolving in a month,
• 18:12
  uh,
• 18:12
  your,
• 18:12
  your capital can probably be utilized in a better way.
• 18:15
  It's the most fun to predict the 2028 election.
• 18:18
  It's not the best investment,
• 18:20
  uh,
• 18:20
  to get involved yet.
• 18:22
  You will have plenty of time to use your capital and put it into those markets.
• 18:25
  Right now,
• 18:26
  keep your position small there cause you just don't want to tie up all your money
• 18:29
  on something that you're not gonna get paid off for for multiple years.
• 18:32
  Uh,
• 18:32
  one last thing before we leave,
• 18:33
  this is,
• 18:33
  uh,
• 18:34
  entertaining to me.
• 18:36
  I don't know anything about I.
• 18:39
  I don't know anything about this person.
• 18:41
  I don't know anything about this story,
• 18:42
  but I think it's funny.
• 18:43
  Uh,
• 18:43
  clavicular,
• 18:44
  you're,
• 18:45
  of course,
• 18:45
  a huge fan,
• 18:45
  I know,
• 18:46
  uh.
• 18:47
  He heard AOC broke up with his,
• 18:49
  uh,
• 18:49
  her fiance,
• 18:51
  and it tweeted this,
• 18:53
  I can fix her,
• 18:54
  uh,
• 18:55
  which is,
• 18:55
  I don't know,
• 18:56
  he's some internet personality if you don't know.
• 18:58
  Uh,
• 18:58
  she broke up with her boyfriend or her fiance,
• 19:01
  and then he's stepping in and saying,
• 19:02
  look,
• 19:02
  give me a shot at this.
• 19:04
  The reason why I bring this up is because Polly Market has listed market on this.
• 19:08
  Will Clavicular and AOC confirm a relationship in 2026?
• 19:13
  Not looking good,
• 19:14
  honestly,
• 19:15
  for Clavicular in this one.
• 19:16
  He's at 2%,
• 19:18
  actually like,
• 19:18
  really,
• 19:19
  just,
• 19:20
  uh,
• 19:20
  around 2%,
• 19:22
  a 2% chance,
• 19:22
  and it's down 1 cent.
• 19:24
  So,
• 19:25
  again,
• 19:25
  another investment I would not necessarily recommend,
• 19:28
  uh,
• 19:28
  because,
• 19:29
  uh,
• 19:29
  but I think the no is a pretty sure thing there.
• 19:31
  I would be,
• 19:31
  we'd be,
• 19:32
  I will say.
• 19:33
  Crazier things have happened,
• 19:35
  but I would be legitimately surprised
• 19:37
  if that one
• 19:38
  wound up becoming
• 19:39
  a yes.
• 19:40
  OK,
• 19:40
  we're gonna take a break.
• 19:41
  I have Pat Gray coming up in just a moment.
• 19:44
  Don't forget to join us at predictableShow.com.
• 19:46
  We have a live stream of the show.
• 19:47
  We actually do the taping of the show live,
• 19:49
  uh,
• 19:49
  to,
• 19:49
  uh,
• 19:50
  everybody on SubStack.
• 19:51
  Uh,
• 19:51
  if you are a premium member,
• 19:52
  it's free right now though,
• 19:53
  if you wanna go check that out,
• 19:54
  and you can see what kind of Goes on behind
• 19:55
  the scenes and the commercials that we get prepared,
• 19:58
  um,
• 19:58
  uh,
• 19:58
  you,
• 19:58
  you get to kind of see,
• 19:59
  uh,
• 20:00
  everything that's going on,
• 20:01
  and,
• 20:01
  uh,
• 20:02
  you can join and see all those pics,
• 20:03
  uh,
• 20:03
  that I have.
• 20:04
  Many of them are stupid pics for 2028,
• 20:06
  even though I just told you it was a terrible investment.
• 20:08
  I still,
• 20:08
  I can't resist.
• 20:09
  It's just fun and it's interesting to me,
• 20:11
  so
• 20:11
  I still will jump in a little bit,
• 20:13
  but your capital can do a better job probably in another market.
• 20:16
  OK,
• 20:16
  take a break,
• 20:16
  back in a second.
• 20:27
  I'm joined now by the one,
• 20:28
  the only
• 20:29
  Pat Gray,
• 20:30
  host of Pat Gray Unleashed on Blaze TV and purveyor of all deliciousness
• 20:35
  with Keexie cookies.
• 20:36
  You can check that out at kexie.com,
• 20:38
  the best cookies you're ever gonna eat.
• 20:39
  Pat Gray,
• 20:40
  thanks so much for coming on the program.
• 20:41
  Great to be here.
• 20:42
  Thank you,
• 20:42
  Stu.
• 20:42
  I'm really excited that you're here.
• 20:44
  Me too.
• 20:44
  Um,
• 20:45
  yeah,
• 20:45
  because I have a lot of questions for you.
• 20:47
  Uh,
• 20:47
  you know,
• 20:48
  we,
• 20:48
  we do this,
• 20:48
  this show is about prediction markets.
• 20:50
  We talk about prediction markets.
• 20:51
  What do they tell us?
• 20:52
  What can we learn from them,
• 20:53
  uh,
• 20:53
  you know,
• 20:54
  is there any value in any of these markets?
• 20:55
  And I've been watching your show
• 20:58
  and you know,
• 20:58
  for over the years we've occasionally had
• 21:01
  what they call bugs
• 21:02
  on the screen.
• 21:03
  Um,
• 21:04
  uh,
• 21:05
  this is a,
• 21:06
  you know,
• 21:06
  a little TV thing that we do and like it'll be like
• 21:08
  if there's an important thing and we're counting down the days,
• 21:10
  you know,
• 21:10
  55 days to the election,
• 21:11
  85 days to the election,
• 21:12
  or,
• 21:13
  you know,
• 21:13
  this thing's been going on for this time
• 21:15
  and I'm watching your show and I've noticed
• 21:17
  you have a little bug in your screen now in the corner of basically every broadcast,
• 21:23
  which just says where's Mitch McConnell.
• 21:26
  Well,
• 21:27
  it is now,
• 21:28
  uh,
• 21:29
  day 61 of America held hostage
• 21:32
  by Mitch McConnell,
• 21:33
  and,
• 21:34
  uh,
• 21:35
  I'm,
• 21:36
  I'm a little tired of it,
• 21:37
  frankly.
• 21:37
  I,
• 21:38
  it's
• 21:39
  inconceivable to me.
• 21:41
  It's inconceivable that we know
• 21:43
  really
• 21:44
  nothing
• 21:45
  about
• 21:46
  his health status,
• 21:48
  when he's coming,
• 21:49
  if he's coming back,
• 21:50
  we don't know any of it.
• 21:51
  It's really strange,
• 21:53
  and this is a guy obviously,
• 21:54
  you know,
• 21:54
  in leadership,
• 21:55
  we're we're talking about for the country's purposes here,
• 21:57
  having
• 21:58
  your senators show up to work is an important thing,
• 22:03
  uh,
• 22:03
  that we,
• 22:03
  we,
• 22:04
  that we might
• 22:05
  demand
• 22:06
  as voters and citizens,
• 22:08
  and we talked about this back in the day,
• 22:09
  uh,
• 22:10
  I remember us talking about it,
• 22:11
  you know,
• 22:12
  a couple of years ago when he had that weird
• 22:14
  freeze.
• 22:16
  And even at that time,
• 22:17
  he should have been out.
• 22:18
  He should have been out then.
• 22:19
  I mean,
• 22:19
  like,
• 22:19
  look,
• 22:20
  I have all the sympathy in the world for somebody
• 22:22
  who's getting older and going through difficult health situations,
• 22:24
  but like
• 22:25
  this is not
• 22:26
  the way a country is supposed to operate.
• 22:28
  This is insanity.
• 22:29
  I mean,
• 22:29
  we,
• 22:29
  we used to make fun of the Soviet Union for leaving these people
• 22:32
  in office until they were 100 years old and couldn't do anything,
• 22:35
  and,
• 22:35
  and I,
• 22:35
  we're just replicating this constantly.
• 22:37
  Yeah,
• 22:38
  we keep hearing.
• 22:39
  The excuse that,
• 22:40
  oh,
• 22:40
  well,
• 22:40
  he's older and he's,
• 22:43
  he needs his privacy and
• 22:45
  the man's a US senator.
• 22:47
  Nobody is saying that all old people need to report to
• 22:51
  the American people about how they're doing and how they're feeling,
• 22:54
  and when they're going to go back to work.
• 22:56
  I'm just kind of expecting that from a US senator.
• 23:00
  And I guess it's too much to expect because
• 23:02
  As much as we've asked,
• 23:04
  even the governor of his state
• 23:07
  has been demanding answers,
• 23:09
  and they get none.
• 23:10
  I mean,
• 23:10
  supposedly
• 23:11
  he's talked to Scott Jennings a few times and Scott
• 23:14
  said again this week that he talked to him,
• 23:16
  but
• 23:17
  do we know that for a fact,
• 23:18
  which is a weird situation.
• 23:19
  I like Scott.
• 23:20
  I do too,
• 23:20
  you know,
• 23:21
  he's,
• 23:21
  he's a good guy,
• 23:22
  and,
• 23:23
  and I,
• 23:23
  I,
• 23:23
  I have no reason to doubt that what he's saying is true,
• 23:26
  but it is strange that we have like one like
• 23:28
  portal into this world that is just this guy who,
• 23:32
  who's on CNN who just tells us everything's gonna be fine.
• 23:34
  Even Scott has been saying,
• 23:36
  well,
• 23:37
  he values his privacy is all.
• 23:39
  Men of that age do well
• 23:41
  again,
• 23:43
  US Senator,
• 23:44
  OK,
• 23:44
  I don't care how
• 23:46
  valuable your privacy is,
• 23:48
  you're not entitled to it.
• 23:50
  In this particular case,
• 23:51
  we need to know how he's doing
• 23:53
  and if he's coming back,
• 23:55
  you know,
• 23:55
  we got the midterms coming up here pretty soon
• 23:58
  and should probably know if,
• 23:59
  uh,
• 24:00
  you know,
• 24:01
  who's,
• 24:01
  if he's gonna fill out the term or what's gonna happen,
• 24:04
  yeah,
• 24:04
  because I don't remember what the rule is in Kentucky.
• 24:08
  You know,
• 24:08
  if,
• 24:08
  if someone steps down and they've got a Democratic governor,
• 24:12
  I don't remember.
• 24:12
  Do you remember Kentucky apparently doesn't have the governor that's a senator.
• 24:18
  I think they did that on election.
• 24:18
  If I'm not mistaken,
• 24:19
  I feel like they did that.
• 24:20
  It was one state that did it recently where they were like,
• 24:23
  OK,
• 24:23
  I see that what's gonna happen here.
• 24:24
  We better vote in new rules.
• 24:26
  It might have been.
• 24:27
  It might have been Kentucky if not it was somebody else.
• 24:29
  Um,
• 24:29
  there is a prediction market for this,
• 24:30
  as there is pretty much for everything these days.
• 24:32
  Uh,
• 24:32
  will Mitch McConnell,
• 24:33
  uh,
• 24:34
  step down?
• 24:34
  This is,
• 24:34
  uh,
• 24:35
  what it looks like right now,
• 24:36
  and you kind of see.
• 24:37
  It right after Trump's election,
• 24:38
  it was up around the 45%
• 24:40
  period,
• 24:41
  held around between 15 and 25% for most of the time.
• 24:44
  As the health things popped up recently,
• 24:46
  it popped up to about 35%.
• 24:48
  But right now it's at its low over the past
• 24:50
  couple of years at about 7%.
• 24:53
  And it's interesting because I've been getting this from people in Kentucky who,
• 24:58
  when we've talked about this market,
• 24:59
  they say,
• 25:00
  I don't care what happens,
• 25:01
  that man is not stepping down.
• 25:03
  Like they don't believe they will,
• 25:04
  they believe he will never give up power
• 25:07
  by choice,
• 25:08
  you know,
• 25:08
  obviously,
• 25:09
  uh,
• 25:09
  you know,
• 25:10
  there are health issues that he might not be able to overcome,
• 25:12
  but he will never
• 25:13
  willingly just step down.
• 25:14
  Do you,
• 25:14
  do you buy that?
• 25:15
  I mean,
• 25:15
  I think that.
• 25:16
  I think that's probably accurate,
• 25:18
  although he has said he's not.
• 25:19
  I mean,
• 25:20
  he's obviously not running,
• 25:21
  so this will be it at the end of the year anyway,
• 25:25
  but he's gonna try to play it out to the end of the year.
• 25:27
  I think he is.
• 25:28
  Yeah,
• 25:28
  yeah,
• 25:28
  I think he is.
• 25:29
  Let me show you one funny thing.
• 25:30
  I mean,
• 25:30
  I,
• 25:30
  it's not.
• 25:31
  Funny.
• 25:32
  But let me show you one funny thing
• 25:33
  on this.
• 25:34
  This is a Calci market,
• 25:35
  and they want to make something very clear,
• 25:36
  important information.
• 25:37
  In the event of death,
• 25:39
  the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death unless a such
• 25:43
  a price is not available and logically
• 25:44
  consistent or representative of fair settlement value,
• 25:47
  in which case the exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.
• 25:50
  They're basically like,
• 25:51
  look,
• 25:52
  we got it.
• 25:52
  He might just die,
• 25:53
  but don't be trying to,
• 25:55
  uh,
• 25:56
  figure out whether he's going to die because if he.
• 25:59
  Gus,
• 25:59
  we're not gonna pay out this contract just so you guys know.
• 26:02
  So there's no prediction on whether or not he dies.
• 26:04
  No,
• 26:05
  they don't have any that that's that.
• 26:06
  It's illegal anyway,
• 26:07
  but,
• 26:08
  um,
• 26:08
  these markets don't allow any death markets.
• 26:10
  There's some like international markets that occasionally will have more
• 26:14
  controversial picks like that,
• 26:15
  but anything US based doesn't have that.
• 26:16
  But I mean that's,
• 26:17
  it's a sad state of affairs.
• 26:18
  It is.
• 26:19
  And there are people who
• 26:21
  believe he's dead already.
• 26:23
  I
• 26:23
  mean,
• 26:23
  it's not funny,
• 26:24
  but it kind of is.
• 26:26
  Because
• 26:27
  we shouldn't be going through this.
• 26:28
  I mean,
• 26:28
  this is Moittaba Khomeini material here.
• 26:31
  They don't know if he's OK in Iran,
• 26:34
  but
• 26:35
  that's Iran.
• 26:36
  This is the United States of America.
• 26:37
  We should know.
• 26:38
  It's,
• 26:38
  it's,
• 26:39
  uh,
• 26:39
  and this is not just a senator,
• 26:41
  right?
• 26:41
  This was the Senate majority leader for a million years.
• 26:43
  I get that he's not doing that anymore,
• 26:45
  uh,
• 26:45
  but still,
• 26:46
  it is,
• 26:47
  he's a very prominent guy.
• 26:48
  He's very,
• 26:49
  you know,
• 26:49
  he still has a lot of influence,
• 26:51
  and the fact that like we just don't know,
• 26:53
  I,
• 26:53
  I,
• 26:54
  I.
• 26:54
  Again,
• 26:55
  we're not asking about his sex life here.
• 26:56
  Can the guy think?
• 26:57
  Can he move?
• 26:58
  Can he come to work at any point in the next 6 months?
• 27:01
  You know,
• 27:02
  the reporter who's been there the whole time,
• 27:04
  uh,
• 27:05
  Desiree
• 27:06
  something or other,
• 27:06
  I don't remember her last name.
• 27:08
  But she had word
• 27:10
  it's probably a month ago or a month and a half ago that
• 27:13
  he was actually comatose and brain dead and they were gonna pull the plug
• 27:18
  that I think that turned out to be inaccurate.
• 27:20
  I'm not positive of that because we have we don't gotten any proof,
• 27:24
  but
• 27:25
  I mean that's how dire
• 27:28
  some of the,
• 27:29
  uh,
• 27:30
  predictions have been is that he's already gone.
• 27:32
  So I,
• 27:33
  I don't think that's the case and
• 27:35
  And I don't think Scott Jennings would make up
• 27:37
  the fact that he talked to him this week.
• 27:39
  Um,
• 27:40
  but everyone was mocking his post on that when he was like,
• 27:42
  I talked to him for 20 minutes and everyone just started,
• 27:44
  you know,
• 27:45
  mocking everybody was on the internet with him for 20 minutes.
• 27:48
  I know I personally talked to him.
• 27:50
  Oh,
• 27:50
  you did about 20 minutes,
• 27:51
  20 minutes.
• 27:52
  He was dialed in.
• 27:53
  It was a wide ranging discussion about a lot of different topics.
• 27:57
  Yeah,
• 27:57
  and I just want to make sure that
• 27:59
  it's clear that we're consistent on this.
• 28:01
  We called for him to step down when he had the 1st 1st time,
• 28:04
  and
• 28:05
  this is the same reaction I've had,
• 28:07
  I had,
• 28:07
  and you had.
• 28:09
  When we were talking about Joe Biden as president.
• 28:12
  Like,
• 28:12
  what is going on?
• 28:13
  What do you mean he hasn't met his cabinet in 2 years?
• 28:16
  What are you talking about?
• 28:17
  How can that happen?
• 28:18
  It shouldn't be able to happen.
• 28:20
  A senator is one thing,
• 28:21
  it's bad enough.
• 28:22
  President,
• 28:23
  I still feel like we,
• 28:23
  we need more investigations on this.
• 28:25
  We can't just let this go.
• 28:27
  It's,
• 28:27
  it's gotta be something that the American people need to know.
• 28:28
  We can't just have a,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:29
  hey,
• 28:30
  well,
• 28:30
  we turned off the office of the president for a couple of years.
• 28:32
  That's not a constitutional option.
• 28:35
  Can you imagine if it was Chuck Schumer?
• 28:37
  Republicans would be out of their minds over this,
• 28:39
  and rightly so,
• 28:40
  and rightly so.
• 28:41
  And we should also point out the
• 28:42
  Republicans also had a congressman who disappeared for
• 28:46
  multiple months in New Jersey,
• 28:48
  uh,
• 28:48
  and then we were just all supposed to accept that too.
• 28:50
  Not OK.
• 28:51
  Doesn't matter the party,
• 28:52
  not OK.
• 28:53
  Um,
• 28:54
  let's talk about Michigan for a second.
• 28:56
  You watched this election,
• 28:57
  I know,
• 28:58
  uh,
• 28:58
  pretty closely.
• 28:59
  Uh,
• 28:59
  you're,
• 29:00
  I know a huge fan of Abdul El Sayed,
• 29:02
  big fan,
• 29:03
  uh,
• 29:03
  big supporter.
• 29:04
  Uh,
• 29:05
  were you at all surprised that he was in a state like Michigan,
• 29:09
  which,
• 29:10
  you know,
• 29:10
  it's not some,
• 29:10
  it's not California,
• 29:12
  that a guy who's basically a democratic socialist was able to win statewide?
• 29:16
  Yeah,
• 29:16
  it's,
• 29:16
  I,
• 29:17
  you know,
• 29:17
  it's kind of sweeping the country right now.
• 29:20
  And
• 29:21
  it's,
• 29:21
  uh,
• 29:22
  it's kind of inconceivable.
• 29:23
  Uh,
• 29:24
  5 years ago,
• 29:25
  I wouldn't have believed this possible,
• 29:27
  but,
• 29:27
  you know,
• 29:28
  we've seen some things change over the last few years,
• 29:30
  and it's,
• 29:31
  uh,
• 29:31
  it's a little bit chilling to me that.
• 29:34
  That these,
• 29:35
  uh,
• 29:35
  in some cases,
• 29:36
  Islamists,
• 29:38
  in some cases,
• 29:39
  Islamist
• 29:39
  socialist,
• 29:41
  um,
• 29:41
  you know,
• 29:42
  Mamdani,
• 29:43
  we've called him an
• 29:44
  Islamunist for about a year now.
• 29:46
  Uh,
• 29:46
  I don't know if that title applies to El Sayed,
• 29:50
  but it's pretty close.
• 29:51
  I mean,
• 29:51
  he's pretty out there,
• 29:53
  pretty far out there.
• 29:54
  He,
• 29:54
  and by the way,
• 29:55
  uh.
• 29:55
  Just came out with an approval rating for Mamdani in New York and it's like 65%.
• 29:59
  It was 69,
• 30:00
  69%,
• 30:01
  it's,
• 30:01
  which is incredible.
• 30:03
  Not believable.
• 30:04
  Socialism often has this arc,
• 30:06
  right where
• 30:07
  the giveaways all come first,
• 30:09
  the paying for all the consequences comes later.
• 30:12
  So you,
• 30:13
  this is not out of the ordinary when it comes to socialism or communism.
• 30:17
  At first,
• 30:17
  a lot of times it is popular,
• 30:18
  uh,
• 30:19
  it fades over time typically.
• 30:21
  Um,
• 30:21
  I wanna give you the market on the,
• 30:22
  on the,
• 30:23
  uh,
• 30:23
  we have the,
• 30:23
  uh,
• 30:24
  the general election market,
• 30:26
  because I think this is interesting and
• 30:28
  while I don't want,
• 30:29
  I'm not a socialist,
• 30:30
  don't want a socialist to win,
• 30:31
  um,
• 30:31
  but I think him winning
• 30:33
  is actually,
• 30:34
  uh,
• 30:35
  we're looking for the Michigan one,
• 30:36
  guys,
• 30:36
  by the way,
• 30:36
  um,
• 30:37
  is actually,
• 30:38
  I think a good thing for Mike Rogers,
• 30:39
  his opponent.
• 30:40
  Um,
• 30:41
  this is,
• 30:42
  uh,
• 30:42
  in that Michigan race
• 30:43
  going up against Haley Stevens,
• 30:45
  who's kind of like a normal-ish Democrat,
• 30:47
  right,
• 30:47
  uh,
• 30:48
  is,
• 30:48
  uh,
• 30:49
  I think would have been more difficult for Rodgers than Abdul El Sayed.
• 30:53
  This is,
• 30:53
  by the way,
• 30:54
  what the market looks like,
• 30:55
  um,
• 30:55
  and Patty,
• 30:56
  you can see this,
• 30:56
  uh,
• 30:57
  you see the peak there,
• 30:59
  which is about a month ago for that green line,
• 31:01
  which is Abdul El Sayed,
• 31:03
  after he,
• 31:04
  you see him,
• 31:04
  um,
• 31:05
  as he kind of comes down.
• 31:07
  Uh,
• 31:08
  he has dropped and the Rodgers,
• 31:11
  um,
• 31:12
  percentage has risen
• 31:14
  since Elsa had got that nomination.
• 31:16
  Now,
• 31:16
  you do see a little bit of a fall off here in the last couple of days.
• 31:18
  I don't know,
• 31:19
  maybe the market's correcting or whatever,
• 31:20
  uh,
• 31:20
  but generally speaking,
• 31:22
  this is seen as Rodgers having a better chance.
• 31:23
  And I,
• 31:24
  you know,
• 31:24
  look,
• 31:24
  I,
• 31:25
  I'm not hiding this.
• 31:26
  I think Rodgers would be a better senator than Abdul Sayed or Haley Stevens,
• 31:29
  frankly.
• 31:30
  Uh,
• 31:30
  but I mean,
• 31:31
  I,
• 31:32
  I have this thing that I,
• 31:33
  I worry about the,
• 31:34
  the same thing in,
• 31:34
  uh,
• 31:35
  Wisconsin.
• 31:36
  We talked about the,
• 31:37
  uh,
• 31:37
  Francesca Hong
• 31:39
  uh losing.
• 31:40
  Do you,
• 31:41
  as a person who's a conservative,
• 31:42
  do you,
• 31:43
  do you root for
• 31:44
  the socialists who maybe is easier to beat,
• 31:46
  or do you go the other way and root for the,
• 31:49
  the maybe more moderate Democrat who might be harder to beat?
• 31:51
  I,
• 31:51
  I get,
• 31:52
  I am conflicted.
• 31:53
  I was really torn as well.
• 31:54
  We talked about that on,
• 31:55
  on the show yesterday
• 31:57
  because,
• 31:57
  um,
• 31:58
  It
• 31:59
  is it a good thing?
• 32:00
  I,
• 32:00
  I don't know anymore.
• 32:02
  I really,
• 32:02
  I,
• 32:03
  you would think the socialists would be
• 32:05
  more easily defeated,
• 32:07
  but I don't know that that's a guarantee anymore.
• 32:10
  It's kind of frightening,
• 32:12
  even in a purple state
• 32:13
  like Michigan,
• 32:14
  uh,
• 32:14
  or,
• 32:15
  or Wisconsin.
• 32:15
  These are close states in the presidential election these days,
• 32:18
  but
• 32:19
  I don't know which way this goes.
• 32:20
  Um,
• 32:20
  I want to take a quick break and come back with more with Pat Gray here in a second.
• 32:23
  We have the midterms.
• 32:24
  What,
• 32:24
  what does Pat think about where the midterms are going?
• 32:26
  Uh,
• 32:27
  and,
• 32:27
  and another one that Pat has,
• 32:28
  has some expertise on and some information I did not know
• 32:32
  about,
• 32:33
  uh,
• 32:33
  that could shape your position on this market.
• 32:35
  Back with more in a second.
• 32:43
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu and Pat Gray joining us.
• 32:46
  Pat,
• 32:46
  uh,
• 32:47
  Trump says Caroline Levitt resigning as a White House press secretary.
• 32:52
  She says,
• 32:52
  uh,
• 32:52
  our wonderful White House press secretary is one of my trusted aides,
• 32:55
  Caroline Levitt,
• 32:56
  will be departing her role at the end of the month so
• 32:57
  she can spend time with her beautiful young children and family,
• 33:00
  and it does seem to be a really nice.
• 33:02
  Uh,
• 33:03
  warm family story here,
• 33:04
  right?
• 33:04
  Like this doesn't seem like the typical thing where,
• 33:06
  like,
• 33:07
  you know,
• 33:07
  she's murdered 5 people behind the scenes and we don't know about it.
• 33:10
  Like it just seems to be she just wants to spend time with her kids,
• 33:12
  which is great.
• 33:13
  It's great,
• 33:14
  um,
• 33:14
  the,
• 33:14
  the,
• 33:15
  if you don't remember,
• 33:15
  I just wanna run through this because there's a market on who's gonna replace her.
• 33:18
  I don't get your opinion on this,
• 33:19
  but
• 33:19
  Sean Spicer was the first one.
• 33:21
  Then Sarah Huckabee Sanders,
• 33:22
  Stephanie Grisham,
• 33:23
  Kayleigh McEnany,
• 33:24
  and Caroline Levitt the.
• 33:25
  Only one in the second term so far.
• 33:27
  So this is a big decision
• 33:28
  for the president.
• 33:29
  Levitt,
• 33:30
  I think,
• 33:30
  did a pretty good job for him.
• 33:31
  She was really good,
• 33:32
  yeah,
• 33:32
  yeah,
• 33:33
  um,
• 33:33
  let's bring up this market and see the other names,
• 33:35
  uh,
• 33:35
  that we have as possibilities.
• 33:37
  Um,
• 33:37
  so Scott Jennings is the leader we just talked about Scott a moment ago,
• 33:41
  uh,
• 33:42
  and then Anna Kelly,
• 33:44
  Alina
• 33:45
  Haba,
• 33:45
  we go down and do we,
• 33:46
  can we scroll down to the names here?
• 33:47
  OK,
• 33:48
  uh,
• 33:49
  more markets there we go.
• 33:50
  So
• 33:51
  no one really above like 25%,
• 33:52
  I think basically people don't seem to know.
• 33:56
  Some interesting names in here like,
• 33:58
  I,
• 33:58
  you know,
• 33:58
  someone like Steven Chung,
• 33:59
  I can't imagine would,
• 34:00
  would do it.
• 34:01
  Um,
• 34:02
  you know,
• 34:02
  uh,
• 34:03
  Rachel Campos Duffy is an interesting name
• 34:05
  there.
• 34:06
  Sage Steele,
• 34:06
  I don't think she would do it.
• 34:08
  Carrie Lake.
• 34:09
  Carrie Lake,
• 34:09
  I think,
• 34:10
  I don't know.
• 34:10
  I mean,
• 34:10
  she certainly could do it,
• 34:12
  but she's very combative.
• 34:13
  Laura Loomer,
• 34:13
  there's no way.
• 34:15
  Spencer Pratt's an interesting name.
• 34:16
  I heard people talking about Spencer Pratt.
• 34:18
  That would be fun,
• 34:18
  I think.
• 34:19
  I don't think it will happen,
• 34:20
  but it would be fun.
• 34:21
  It would be fun.
• 34:22
  Tucker Carlson,
• 34:23
  I'm gonna say
• 34:24
  probably not.
• 34:24
  No,
• 34:25
  I don't think that,
• 34:26
  I don't see that happening.
• 34:27
  This is another thing I,
• 34:28
  I talk to people all the time,
• 34:29
  Pat,
• 34:29
  because there's,
• 34:29
  uh,
• 34:29
  we talked about the presidential markets earlier on the show.
• 34:32
  People are always like,
• 34:33
  oh,
• 34:33
  well,
• 34:33
  Tucker Carlson run for president.
• 34:35
  Do you have any idea how much money Tucker Carlson makes?
• 34:39
  He,
• 34:40
  he,
• 34:40
  he might buy the Lakers next.
• 34:42
  I like this guy is rolling in money,
• 34:45
  and I know I'm not saying that's the most important thing to him or anything,
• 34:47
  but.
• 34:48
  To take a job,
• 34:49
  to get beat up by the press every day,
• 34:52
  I mean,
• 34:52
  no chance,
• 34:53
  right?
• 34:54
  No,
• 34:54
  any of those names seem interesting that you would think,
• 34:56
  um,
• 34:57
  Alina Haba
• 34:58
  might be good,
• 34:59
  and she's a lawyer,
• 35:01
  yeah,
• 35:01
  I think so.
• 35:02
  She's a lawyer by training,
• 35:03
  uh,
• 35:03
  and then Natalie Harp,
• 35:05
  you know,
• 35:06
  they're really close.
• 35:07
  I could see that happening.
• 35:08
  You know who I'd love to see do it,
• 35:10
  but it'd be a step down for him is Steven Miller.
• 35:12
  That guy
• 35:13
  takes,
• 35:14
  he does not know crap from anybody.
• 35:17
  I love him or hate him.
• 35:18
  You have to admire that he just does not care.
• 35:21
  You do.
• 35:21
  It would be fun
• 35:23
  if he took that job,
• 35:24
  and it was kind of fun when,
• 35:25
  uh,
• 35:26
  when Caroline Levitt was out
• 35:28
  with the baby,
• 35:29
  uh,
• 35:29
  for a couple of months,
• 35:31
  and they had a kind of a rotating group of people that handled it from time to time.
• 35:35
  He was one of those,
• 35:36
  and so was Scott Bessant,
• 35:37
  and they did an OK job,
• 35:39
  and
• 35:41
  Steven Miller was
• 35:42
  exceptional,
• 35:44
  exceptional.
• 35:45
  He,
• 35:46
  I mean,
• 35:46
  look,
• 35:47
  the left like literally despises him.
• 35:50
  I think they do maybe more than Trump.
• 35:52
  I think it's possible,
• 35:53
  which is a high bar to clear,
• 35:55
  uh,
• 35:55
  but,
• 35:56
  uh,
• 35:56
  yeah,
• 35:56
  I don't,
• 35:57
  I don't think that would be a role he would take on a full-time basis.
• 35:59
  Um,
• 36:00
  let me just give you,
• 36:00
  let's do the midterms here real quick,
• 36:01
  uh,
• 36:01
  Pat.
• 36:02
  So this,
• 36:02
  this particular market shows where,
• 36:04
  you know,
• 36:04
  Republicans and Democrats will go.
• 36:07
  Will there be a Democratic sweep,
• 36:08
  47% chance.
• 36:10
  Uh,
• 36:10
  will Democrats get the House but not the Senate?
• 36:12
  That's at 38%.
• 36:14
  Republican sweep at 15% and the one that basically
• 36:18
  can't happen,
• 36:18
  I would say,
• 36:19
  uh,
• 36:19
  mostly is a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.
• 36:22
  That would be a very,
• 36:23
  very strange outcome
• 36:24
  out of this election.
• 36:25
  What are your feelings right now?
• 36:26
  I mean,
• 36:27
  the polling
• 36:28
  isn't great for,
• 36:30
  for Trump and approval rating,
• 36:32
  but it,
• 36:32
  it,
• 36:32
  it hasn't like fallen apart for Republicans and their chances.
• 36:35
  How do you feel?
• 36:36
  How do you see?
• 36:36
  I'm,
• 36:36
  I'm still
• 36:38
  mildly hopeful
• 36:39
  that,
• 36:40
  you know,
• 36:40
  they can hang on to at least the Senate
• 36:42
  and.
• 36:44
  Uh,
• 36:44
  I,
• 36:44
  but it's hard because gas prices are up.
• 36:47
  I mean,
• 36:48
  they haven't gone down.
• 36:49
  The war is still dragging on.
• 36:52
  We've got some
• 36:53
  headwinds that we're facing right now,
• 36:55
  the Republicans are facing.
• 36:57
  Um,
• 36:58
  I don't think they keep,
• 37:00
  The majority in both,
• 37:02
  yeah,
• 37:02
  the house seems that's almost impossible,
• 37:04
  I think,
• 37:04
  you know,
• 37:04
  from history,
• 37:05
  Pat,
• 37:05
  right,
• 37:05
  like this is just
• 37:06
  when you have a president in one party and then then you have that first midterm
• 37:11
  with
• 37:11
  with very few exceptions,
• 37:12
  it's an unmitigated disaster.
• 37:15
  And the war is not helping right now.
• 37:16
  Yeah,
• 37:16
  is that the thing that you think is the biggest key?
• 37:18
  Is it affordability?
• 37:19
  Is it the war?
• 37:20
  I mean,
• 37:20
  I guess that goes along,
• 37:21
  I think,
• 37:21
  yeah,
• 37:21
  they're kind of together because I think the war is causing unaffordability.
• 37:26
  And,
• 37:26
  you know,
• 37:26
  gas prices here in Texas just went up 50 cents a gallon.
• 37:30
  Uh,
• 37:31
  I don't know why exactly,
• 37:32
  um,
• 37:33
  but,
• 37:34
  uh,
• 37:35
  you know,
• 37:35
  it's pretty volatile.
• 37:36
  It goes up,
• 37:37
  it comes back down,
• 37:38
  it goes up,
• 37:38
  it comes back down.
• 37:40
  The President said yesterday that everything's fine.
• 37:42
  I'm not sure I feel that way.
• 37:46
  No,
• 37:46
  I,
• 37:46
  I agree.
• 37:46
  You know,
• 37:47
  the war is fine,
• 37:48
  the prices are fine,
• 37:50
  they're all coming down.
• 37:52
  I'm not seeing that.
• 37:53
  Is there potentially,
• 37:55
  Pat,
• 37:55
  a lesson to be learned
• 37:57
  from our,
• 37:57
  uh,
• 37:58
  previous,
• 37:59
  uh,
• 37:59
  prestigious president of the United States,
• 38:01
  Joe
• 38:02
  Robinette Biden?
• 38:04
  Uh,
• 38:04
  who tried this approach,
• 38:06
  right?
• 38:06
  Basically said biodyomics is working,
• 38:08
  you guys just don't understand it.
• 38:11
  That didn't lead to necessarily positive things.
• 38:13
  And I think it hacks people off,
• 38:15
  you know,
• 38:16
  when you're telling them they're doing better than they know they are.
• 38:19
  That's not a good thing.
• 38:21
  And I,
• 38:21
  I think,
• 38:22
  I think President Trump kind of fell into that yesterday and,
• 38:25
  um,
• 38:26
  was telling
• 38:27
  everybody how good things are,
• 38:28
  and I,
• 38:28
  I don't think that's reflected in reality right now.
• 38:31
  How would you fix it
• 38:32
  if you're Trump,
• 38:33
  like,
• 38:33
  and you,
• 38:33
  you know,
• 38:34
  again,
• 38:34
  Trump can't do this all by himself,
• 38:35
  but like what,
• 38:36
  what moves would you try to make to,
• 38:37
  to make it possible for your party to hold on?
• 38:39
  Well,
• 38:39
  we
• 38:40
  gotta get out of Iran,
• 38:42
  uh,
• 38:42
  except you can't leave it
• 38:44
  the way it is now.
• 38:45
  So
• 38:46
  I guess you bomb the crap out of them and then get out of Iran.
• 38:50
  Declare victory and leave.
• 38:51
  It's really tough,
• 38:52
  really tough.
• 38:53
  I don't know.
• 38:53
  There's not a lot the president can do
• 38:56
  at this particular moment to lower grocery prices.
• 38:58
  I think the war's got to be won and then over
• 39:01
  before that's gonna happen.
• 39:02
  And we're less than 90 days away from this election.
• 39:04
  So you don't,
• 39:05
  you know,
• 39:05
  people will have their mind made up,
• 39:07
  what,
• 39:07
  at least 1 month before early.
• 39:09
  Voting is gonna start.
• 39:10
  We should look at September 18th,
• 39:12
  the first one,
• 39:13
  September 18th.
• 39:13
  See,
• 39:13
  look at that.
• 39:14
  Pat's doing the research for the show because I was just about to ask,
• 39:16
  we should get the numbers,
• 39:17
  but we should know what that we should,
• 39:18
  let's get the numbers and dates,
• 39:19
  Adam,
• 39:20
  of,
• 39:20
  of all these,
• 39:21
  uh,
• 39:21
  states so we can talk about it as it comes down because that's,
• 39:23
  that's not far away.
• 39:24
  That's a month away.
• 39:24
  It's about a month away,
• 39:25
  yeah,
• 39:26
  um,
• 39:26
  last one for you because this is,
• 39:27
  you've talked a lot about this.
• 39:29
  Will the US confirm
• 39:31
  that aliens exist?
• 39:33
  Now,
• 39:34
  you've done a lot of coverage on this,
• 39:36
  and because there are weird videos and the government is releasing
• 39:40
  strange things that I don't think I ever thought they would be
• 39:43
  releasing.
• 39:45
  They,
• 39:45
  you know,
• 39:45
  as of right now,
• 39:46
  let's show the market real quick.
• 39:47
  Um,
• 39:47
  will they,
• 39:47
  this is,
• 39:48
  uh,
• 39:49
  there's a few different options here.
• 39:50
  Before 2027,
• 39:51
  there's a 6% chance before 2028,
• 39:53
  a 17% chance before 2029.
• 39:56
  Uh,
• 39:56
  a 20 before Trump's term ends,
• 39:58
  basically is,
• 39:59
  is a 23 or 29%.
• 40:01
  My eyes are terrible,
• 40:01
  23%,
• 40:02
  um.
• 40:03
  You know,
• 40:05
  I think whether they're true or not,
• 40:07
  the government saying that that outwardly is,
• 40:09
  is a,
• 40:10
  is a,
• 40:10
  is a high hurdle to clear,
• 40:12
  um,
• 40:12
  but what do you,
• 40:13
  what do you think from the releases?
• 40:14
  Is there any indication that would happen?
• 40:16
  Well,
• 40:16
  let me throw in one variable that you might not be counting on right now.
• 40:20
  Um,
• 40:21
  the
• 40:22
  blind Bulgarian mystic Baba Vga.
• 40:26
  Oh,
• 40:26
  Babavanga,
• 40:27
  who,
• 40:27
  who died,
• 40:27
  of course,
• 40:28
  in 1996,
• 40:30
  but before she did,
• 40:30
  she made some predictions for 2026,
• 40:33
  2 of which.
• 40:35
  Supposedly,
• 40:35
  according to her followers have already come true.
• 40:38
  Now,
• 40:38
  there's 3 more sometime during the course of the year,
• 40:40
  and one of them is
• 40:42
  that by November,
• 40:44
  uh,
• 40:45
  we will see the first absolute proof of extraterrestrial life because a spaceship.
• 40:51
  That's about 1 mile long is going to show up over the United States of America.
• 40:56
  That to me
• 40:57
  would confirm the existence of aliens,
• 41:00
  and,
• 41:00
  uh,
• 41:00
  I don't even need the president telling me if that happens.
• 41:04
  So,
• 41:05
  so I'm pretty excited about that.
• 41:07
  That's supposed to happen.
• 41:08
  Babavanga said.
• 41:10
  By November,
• 41:11
  by November,
• 41:11
  so definitely not in December.
• 41:14
  There's no chance of it happening.
• 41:15
  There's no chance.
• 41:17
  It probably not in August either.
• 41:18
  I'm thinking
• 41:19
  in November it's going in November.
• 41:21
  So a November date would qualify.
• 41:24
  It doesn't have to be before November,
• 41:26
  like October.
• 41:27
  It's gonna be probably in November.
• 41:29
  That comes
• 41:29
  straight from Babavanga,
• 41:31
  we the blind Bulgarian mystic,
• 41:33
  right,
• 41:33
  30 years ago.
• 41:35
  Yes,
• 41:36
  see,
• 41:37
  like you,
• 41:37
  you,
• 41:37
  you come to the show to try to profit in these markets.
• 41:40
  Look at this information we're giving,
• 41:41
  right?
• 41:42
  No one else is talking about this.
• 41:43
  No other prediction market show is getting you Baba Vga information.
• 41:46
  They're not doing that,
• 41:47
  Pat.
• 41:47
  They're not.
• 41:48
  No,
• 41:48
  and you need that
• 41:49
  important information to consider.
• 41:51
  They're trying to hide it from you.
• 41:52
  They are trying to,
• 41:53
  are you,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:54
  so,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:54
  what's going on with Kexie?
• 41:55
  We have any big?
• 41:56
  Big stuff coming up.
• 41:57
  Uh,
• 41:57
  well,
• 41:58
  uh,
• 41:58
  August is our,
• 41:59
  uh,
• 42:00
  coffee cake cookie month,
• 42:01
  so that's a pretty good one.
• 42:03
  People love that
• 42:04
  because I think I feel,
• 42:04
  I feel like I've had coffee cake,
• 42:06
  but I don't know if I've ever had the coffee cake.
• 42:07
  The cookie coffee cake cookie is really good.
• 42:08
  It's got that delicious strudel on top,
• 42:11
  you know,
• 42:12
  that really cinnamon crumb stuff is,
• 42:13
  yes,
• 42:14
  it's the good thing of all time,
• 42:15
  so good,
• 42:16
  those.
• 42:16
  I mean,
• 42:17
  even normal cookies that are or breads that are like a coffee cake
• 42:21
  have a lot of butter in them.
• 42:22
  I can't even imagine
• 42:23
  the amount of butter that is in a Keexie version of that.
• 42:26
  There's a rumor that there's a decent amount of butter in those cookies,
• 42:30
  maybe a shortage in Texas.
• 42:31
  Um,
• 42:32
  uh,
• 42:32
  that's fantastic.
• 42:33
  Uh,
• 42:33
  people can go to kexie.com and order them.
• 42:35
  You'll love those cookies if you're looking for gifts and stuff.
• 42:38
  I can't recommend them highly enough,
• 42:39
  you know,
• 42:39
  because,
• 42:40
  look,
• 42:41
  people have already had Tiff's treats.
• 42:43
  They've had them already,
• 42:44
  OK.
• 42:44
  These are way,
• 42:45
  way better.
• 42:46
  You will,
• 42:46
  and you'll get a special like,
• 42:47
  holy,
• 42:48
  those cookies were amazing like a week later,
• 42:50
  uh,
• 42:50
  if you give them as a gift or you bring them to a party,
• 42:52
  can't recommend Kexie High and Highland enough,
• 42:54
  and of course Pat Gray unleashed,
• 42:55
  uh,
• 42:56
  as well.
• 42:56
  Uh,
• 42:57
  last one for you before we go,
• 42:58
  Talarico.
• 43:00
  And Paxton,
• 43:00
  are you
• 43:01
  nervous about this yet?
• 43:02
  Very,
• 43:03
  yeah,
• 43:03
  very.
• 43:03
  He's up 47-45.
• 43:05
  I mean,
• 43:05
  the guy's a freak.
• 43:07
  He's insane.
• 43:08
  Tallarico,
• 43:08
  you're talking about Tallarico.
• 43:10
  Yes,
• 43:10
  now Ken Paxton,
• 43:12
  Paxton has some issues,
• 43:13
  but,
• 43:13
  uh,
• 43:14
  I'm,
• 43:14
  I'm just saying
• 43:15
  set him aside and vote for him.
• 43:17
  That's all I'm saying.
• 43:18
  Don't worry about any if you have a problem.
• 43:20
  Problem.
• 43:21
  Forget you had the problem and just go that way and just vote for it.
• 43:24
  OK,
• 43:24
  yeah,
• 43:25
  that's one where I get in a lot of questions about that one
• 43:27
  because I still feel like a lot of Republicans will come home in November.
• 43:31
  Uh,
• 43:32
  people who liked Cornyn,
• 43:33
  for example,
• 43:33
  will be like,
• 43:34
  alright,
• 43:34
  like I don't want this weirdo to be my senator,
• 43:37
  meaning Tallarico,
• 43:38
  um,
• 43:39
  even if they don't like Pakistan all that much.
• 43:41
  But if the Republicans don't spend money,
• 43:43
  and I,
• 43:43
  there's part of me that thinks Cornyn is behind the scenes being like,
• 43:46
  you know what,
• 43:47
  don't bail him out.
• 43:48
  You know,
• 43:48
  I don't,
• 43:48
  I don't,
• 43:49
  I,
• 43:49
  I think he's got a lot of power in that realm,
• 43:51
  and I wonder if they're gonna spend money.
• 43:52
  If they don't spend any money,
• 43:53
  he could lose.
• 43:55
  Uh,
• 43:55
  so that's like a fifty-fifty,
• 43:56
  I think actually now for the first
• 43:57
  time Tallarico's ahead in the prediction markets,
• 44:00
  uh,
• 44:00
  for the first time.
• 44:01
  Uh,
• 44:02
  so
• 44:02
  if you think he's got,
• 44:03
  if you think Paxton's gonna win,
• 44:04
  there's some big value there,
• 44:05
  but,
• 44:05
  uh,
• 44:06
  wow,
• 44:06
  that's quite a statement for a state like Texas.
• 44:08
  Pat Ray,
• 44:09
  Pat Ray Unleashed,
• 44:09
  thanks so much for coming on and join us.
• 44:10
  Appreciate it.