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Bloomberg's Micklethwait on Potential Upheaval of Brexit(Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters.
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  Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Pellette's stocks are heading for their longest losing
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  Speaker 1: streaks since February, down four in a row, this amid
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  Speaker 1: growing uncertainty about the UK's future in the European Union.
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  Speaker 1: We will have more on that topic the Brexit vote
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  Speaker 1: coming up in just a moment. Also, investors are awaiting
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  Speaker 1: tomorrow's Federal Reserve announcement. So here's where we stand. The
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  Speaker 1: SMP five hundred index down nine now at two thousand,
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  Speaker 1: sixty nine, a drop of five tenths of one percent.
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  Speaker 1: Then ASTAT Composite Index down twenty one points to forty six,
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  Speaker 1: That is a drop of five tenths of one percent down.
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  Speaker 1: Industrials down ninety two points to seventeen thousand, six hundred forty,
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  Speaker 1: a drop of five tenths of one percent. Gold up
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  Speaker 1: a dollar forty benounced to twelve eighty eight, a gain
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  Speaker 1: there of point one percent. Crude oil West Texas in
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  Speaker 1: immediate down fifty three cents for five barrel, down one
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  Speaker 1: point one percent, Brent down one and a half percent
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  Speaker 1: to forty nine dollars and sixty cents. I'm Charlie Palett
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  Speaker 1: and that's a Bloomberg business flash. The Brexit vote on
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Brexit. Yes June, the twenty three voters in
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  Speaker 1: the United Kingdom will go to the polls to determine
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  Speaker 1: whether they will remain in the European Union. And right
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  Speaker 1: now in London there is a debate going on with
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  Speaker 1: Boris and Johnson, former Mayor of London. He is debating
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  Speaker 1: the Brexit vote. He of course for the Brexit vote.
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  Speaker 1: He is debating Alex Salmon of the Scottish National Party,
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  Speaker 1: which formerly had voted to remain part of the United Kingdom.
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  Speaker 1: Here to tell us more about this is John mickel Twite.
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  Speaker 1: He is editor in chief of Bloomberg Editorial. John, thank
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  Speaker 1: you very much for being here. Um, I wonder if
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  Speaker 1: you could just describe a little bit about you are
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  Speaker 1: interview with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his
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  Speaker 1: thoughts about Brexit. Well, the interview with Blair is interesting
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  Speaker 1: from this perspective. On the one hand, m Blair said
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  Speaker 1: that he expected Britain to remain in the U and
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  Speaker 1: to be fair to him, that was before a stream
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  Speaker 1: of very negative polls, but the same token, I think
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  Speaker 1: it'd be fair to say, and I don't think he
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  Speaker 1: would dispute this too much. A lot of parts of
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  Speaker 1: what he might regard as Britain are slightly coming to
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  Speaker 1: bits at the moment. You have, um, the sense of
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  Speaker 1: that sort of third way we're all together, center left
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  Speaker 1: politics that seems to be coming part. There's something very
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  Speaker 1: similar to the trumpets about the brexitters. Um, there is
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  Speaker 1: great disquiet with the idea of globalization, whether it's through immigration,
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  Speaker 1: through elites making too much money, through free trade, all
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  Speaker 1: those things. You know, Britain is arguably the most pro
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  Speaker 1: free trade place in the world, but they're still particular
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  Speaker 1: disputes that immigration. And then at the end of it,
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  Speaker 1: you know, it's just that sense of things that the
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  Speaker 1: politics as we thought we knew them beginning to pray
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  Speaker 1: a bit, and it could all be all right, It
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  Speaker 1: could all be fine in the end. Most people, including me,
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  Speaker 1: still expect remain to win, but it's it's very very close.
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  Speaker 1: Is this an instance where anybody who's in the government
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  Speaker 1: now formally, I mean, is there a kind of more
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  Speaker 1: unity internal there's even less. There's massively less unity because
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  Speaker 1: the parties are in the following state, the Conservatives, which
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  Speaker 1: are the traditionally euroskeptic party. There you have, I think
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  Speaker 1: it's a hundred and something of Cameron's MPs all fighting
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  Speaker 1: to leave. Labor is meant to be the party that
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  Speaker 1: is sort of fully behind staying that. It's leader Jeremy Corbyn,
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  Speaker 1: extremely left wing man by Americans. I haven't talked to
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  Speaker 1: him recently, but he is. He is definitely off the left,
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  Speaker 1: but he's also part of the old eurosceptic left. He's
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  Speaker 1: quite elderly in these respects, and he you know, he
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  Speaker 1: has been at the best, I think, a very lukewarm
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  Speaker 1: supporter of staying. In his speeches tend to be saying
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  Speaker 1: things along the lines of the European Union is useless
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  Speaker 1: at this, terrible at that, awful at this, but I
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  Speaker 1: suppose you better remain in it. And strangely that that
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  Speaker 1: appeal doesn't really seem to be working. So you have
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  Speaker 1: labor not really helping and and the vote will rely
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  Speaker 1: a lot, I think, on on labor voters if it's
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  Speaker 1: going to be remained, coming out to do it and
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  Speaker 1: The other big problem is the young, who are the
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  Speaker 1: other people who in paper look as if they support Remain,
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  Speaker 1: but we have no evidence that they're definitely going to
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  Speaker 1: get to the polls, whilst the old who want to
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  Speaker 1: leave definitely will. The latest Paul the decision to leave
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  Speaker 1: has is at forty six percent, an increase of three,
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  Speaker 1: Remain is at forty one point three, decline of about
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  Speaker 1: seven tenth of a percent. In your conversation with the
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  Speaker 1: former Prime Minister Tony Blair, you spoke a lot He's
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  Speaker 1: book about social media and how that can influence not
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  Speaker 1: only this but the entire political discussion in a country.
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  Speaker 1: Expand on that. Yeah, and there's a bit of that.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at it's possible. I've got
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  Speaker 1: friends and indeed relations are on the Leave side, and
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  Speaker 1: you can you can sit in from Leave um Land
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  Speaker 1: in the same way as you can sit in Trump
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  Speaker 1: Land or for that matter, in Saunders Land. And it
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  Speaker 1: means that you can get most of your information from
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  Speaker 1: pundits who are intrinsically opposed to the European Union in
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  Speaker 1: its many ways. Um. It means also, you know, it's
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  Speaker 1: not just obscure websites. This morning, the Sun, the biggest
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  Speaker 1: tabloid in Britain, came out firmly behind Leave, and that's
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  Speaker 1: interesting on two counts. One, it is the most powerful
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  Speaker 1: sort of political voice in Britain. Rupert Murdoch has never
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  Speaker 1: been a great support of the European Union. It's proprietor.
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  Speaker 1: But the other thing is Rupert Murdoch doesn't genuinely generally
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  Speaker 1: like backing losers, and so the fact that he feels
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  Speaker 1: confident enough to come out in in favor of leading
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  Speaker 1: is again another straw in the wind. And at the
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  Speaker 1: moment there aren't many good straws in the wind for
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  Speaker 1: the remain thing other than the instinct amongst most of
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  Speaker 1: the commentary at that probably in the end people will
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  Speaker 1: will be sufficiently frightened by what leave could mean. In
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  Speaker 1: my view, justifiably well they will say I want to stay.
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  Speaker 1: We had a story recently this week on on Lubrick
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  Speaker 1: News the quantity of just modeling for a maxioma coming
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  Speaker 1: out with research which suggests there be pretty quickly in
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  Speaker 1: equities uk A crees in globle markets if the lead
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  Speaker 1: vote goes through, because it would create so much a people.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, what happens then I think that's that's it,
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  Speaker 1: and that if you were going to explain to the
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  Speaker 1: leavers John Mcolthwaite, who you're more of a remainer, what
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  Speaker 1: would what would be the So that's the difficult point.
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  Speaker 1: On the one hand, um Leave campaign has gained from
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  Speaker 1: the idea that the remainders have tended to exaggerate, UM
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  Speaker 1: the horrors of if prison did this, and I think
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  Speaker 1: they're right in this respect, is that it's got a
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  Speaker 1: pretty strong, big economy. Um, if it leaves the Open Union,
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  Speaker 1: it's still houses are still going to stand. There is
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  Speaker 1: still going to be something there. Um. On the other hand,
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  Speaker 1: I think it is possible to say that the negative
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  Speaker 1: consequences of leaving could actually potentially be quite high. You
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  Speaker 1: just have to look at all these things like maybe
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  Speaker 1: Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, maybe other bits the Union
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  Speaker 1: begin to come to bits and you have this immense
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  Speaker 1: As you've said, declining your currency is not a not
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  Speaker 1: a small thing to consider. It's certain. Listen, who thought
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  Speaker 1: we thought we'd be talking about the better reserve? First?
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  Speaker 1: Ye had two day meeting. I'm sorry to know everyone
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  Speaker 1: in the world is looking at that Brexit vote on June.
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  Speaker 1: This is taking stock on Bloombird Radio. Coming up on
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  Speaker 1: taking stock. While the search for safe haven puts yields
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  Speaker 1: under pressure, there's been a big sell off in the
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  Speaker 1: bonds of Greece and Portugal. Let's talk about what happens
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  Speaker 1: to those countries next