Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 2 Showdown | May 9, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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PGA Round 2 Showdown | May 9, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: H m, what's going on, golf fans. It's your boy
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: ageous sleeky with our Showdown live stream for Round two
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: of the Truest Championship. You're gonna get you guys ready
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: for all your Showdown lineups. But they'll look at the
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: weather report. Any questions you've got for me down there
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: in the live chat, some strategy, some ownership as well
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: as a line of construction, and also some contests available
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: over there in DraftKings as well as some playerful stuff
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: as well. So over this video we pretty much can
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: get all the information that you need for the slate,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: But anything else that you're curious about or maybe that
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: you want to add on top of it process wise,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: just feel free to go ahead and let me know.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: But they got Steven down there in the chat also
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Alan as well. I appreciate the kind words. By the way, Alan,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: it's a whole lot of fun to be covering golf
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: out here. They got Seiss Ross down there as well,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: and uh yeah, we got a lot to talk about here,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: so we'll go through all those things that we just mentioned.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: We have a question about the golf course. Is the
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: reason against older courses minus nine pretty much? Right? Brookline
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: was easy when you didn't have a lot of weather
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: out there either. But let's wait one more day before
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: we condemned the golf course because I think the weather
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a little bit of a more of
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: a factor out there for round two, so we'll go
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: back to that after the next round. It's a hello
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: to round two and hello to me, good sir, click
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: that like bunon. Yeah, amen to that smash a like
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: bun If you guys haven't haven't already hit it? Oh,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: rough Tart starts at the live stream here. My mouth's
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: a little dry. Let's get a sip of water and
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: refresh that. We got game green down there as well.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Hit that first round leader on Mitchell you did today.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: That's pretty awesome, man. I didn't see your slip quite yet.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you posted on over on the other side.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you hit for a good number over there. That'd
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: be pretty sweet. He was like fifty to one. I
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: thought he got Darren down there, and then yeah, Ross
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: mentioning that Denny was putting really good. It's Denny McCarthy, though,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: so what do we expect, right, the world's best putter.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I'd expect him to put that well pretty often. But
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: let's talk about this golf course. So it played even
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: easier than what I thought it would play today. I
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: thought it would played like a minus two scoring average,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: partially because I wanted to be conservative about my projection.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Right if I had told you I thought it had
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: played minus three, you would have told me I was crazy.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Over there. Yesterday you had some people saying you thought
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: it was like a US Open golf course, and that
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: obviously is not the case. You had multiple minus seven
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: or better rounds. In fact, you had six or better
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: on the day, and minus six are better rounds. You
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: had ten of those rounds. That's just out of seventy
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: two players. So in terms of guys over par, it
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: was only a handful five that had that distinction. A
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Bridgeman had Win, Michael Kim Glover and Dunlop. Dunlop not
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: so surprising, but the kind of off the tee play
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: that we've seen. But you really had to play poorly
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: to go out there and shoot over par. So this
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: kind of golf course could get a little bit different
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: with the cooler temperatures tomorrow, also a little bit more
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: wind than what we had out there today. But it's
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: going to be easy no matter what. You know, that
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: kind of wind might make it play closer to a
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: stroke and a half maybe two strokes under par, but
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: you're not talking about this golf course playing over par.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: This is going to be one of the easiest golf
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: courses that they played for the entire year, mostly because
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: of the receptiveness of the golf course, but also it
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: is the fourth shortest course that they're playing on the
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: PGA Tour schedule south Wind, Pebble Beach, and then one
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: other golf course is shorter than what you're going to
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: have this week. And when you have wedges in hand,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: those soft greens, as we've already talked about, you're going
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: to see the kind of scoring that we had for
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: round one. So not such a surprise that it's playing
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: under par. I guess the real surprise was how much
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: under par we saw it playing out there. For today
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow though going to be slightly harder conditions, and because
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: of that, they've moved up some of the tea times.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So over here on this other tab you can see
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: the first tea time is that eight am as opposed
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: to about eleven that you had for round number one
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: in your last tea time is still only about two
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: hours later at about ten am Eastern times, so still
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: only a two hour spread from the first to the
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: last tea time. Also still going off of holes one
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: to ten on threesomes off of both sides, which is
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: going to really diminish any sort of weather edge that
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: we have. But it is important to note that they're
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: trying to get out there early so that they can
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: finish up play because what you'll see with this eighth
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Triple R forecast is that they're calling for an extremely
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: sloppy day rain early in the day, especially about six
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: seven am, over a half an inch that is expected
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: to come down, and this h Triple R forecast has
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a slightly different timing with the weather than some of
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: the other models that you've seen out there. But at
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: some point tomorrow there's going to be a lot of
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: moisture that comes through the area that is likely going
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: to halt play when it gets really nasty out there
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: and could have an hour or so delay as they
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: dry up the golf course. So that's why they moved
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: up the tea times. They would to make sure they
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: can get all round two in if they have any
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: sort of delay, and they don't really know when that
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: delay is going to happen. It could happen before play,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: they might have to delay the start of round number two.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: It could happen half an hour into play when the
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: conditions get too sloppy they go out there and continue play.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Or it could be an afternoon delay and maybe they
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: get everything in before the really heavy stuff comes through.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: It's hard to say, because as you'll see with some
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: of these other models, it's a lot more sporadic. In fact,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: this hr DPS model, which is another one of the
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: five or six that we have at our disposal, as
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: most of that weather coming in the afternoon, is anym
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: model also favoring the afternoon a little bit more. Medio
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Blue is calling for also a lot of those in
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: the afternoon, more so thunderstorms like you can see in
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: that model there. And because a lot of them are
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: telling us different things like this icon model looks a
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: lot more like what we had for the h triple
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: are it could just be an absolute shit show. So
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of glad that they're going with this consolidated
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: set of tea times. Or it's only two hours from
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: the first to the last one, because I think trying
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: to guess any sort of an edge out there for tomorrow,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: even if you have them split in two sums off
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: of Hoole number one, would I think be nearly impossible,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Like you'd have to go out there try and guess it,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: maybe just stack both sides and hope that you end
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: up getting it correct. This kind of slate, though, where
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: it is set up in those threesomes, we don't have
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: to worry about it nearly as much. You can go
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: out there kind of ignore the weather out there in
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: your lineups. But it is worth noting from the scoring
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: perspective that I don't think you're going to see a
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: minus three scoring average. The wins are a little bit
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: more significant over here. On the h triple rs. You
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: can see especially the gusts towards the second half of
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the day. They get up to close to twenty twenty
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: five miles an hour at times out there in the PM.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: That could really have an impact on play if they
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: have a delay and have to finish up in the afternoon.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: And even if they don't delay, let's say that it's
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: just rain that comes through and they have to play
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: through that rain tomorrow. Well, that would be even worse
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: out there for your scoring conditions. If they have to
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: delay play and play in some wins, I think it'll
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: play like maybe a stroke harder than what you had
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: for today. But if they have to play through wind
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: and rain over there tomorrow morning, it could play tough
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: out there, and tough for this course. Might be like
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: a stroke under par or something like that. But that's
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: two strokes harder than what you had for round number one.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So I don't really think it changes the skill set
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: that we're looking for. Round two Showdown, we want some
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: ball striking poppers. If it's soft greens, you want guys
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: that can go out there and throw darts, short game
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: regression candidates. I always want guys that are due to
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: make a few more putts. Course history guys aren't a
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: thing around this kind of golf course. High upside players, though,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: are always what we're looking for in Showdown. When we're
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: playing a showdown format, it's all about the birdie production
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: that you're posting of the streaks. Your raw scoring over
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: there on DraftKings is all that drives your showdown exposure.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: You want to go after this high upside birdie maker.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: So for tomorrow I don't think that that changes, and
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: that's the main thing I'm leaning into is building a
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: solid playerable trying to get some leverage out there into
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: my life lineups. We're mostly going to focus on the
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: player pool next, so we're going to go through some
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: of the shots game metrics and how I use those
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to my advantage, But the game theory we're really going
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: to talk about when we get to the lineup construction later.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: But between building a good player pool, going out there
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: and using game theory when you're actually putting together lineups,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: that's all you need for a solid Showdown portfolio. And
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying that you're going to profit every single
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: slate that you go out there and delay that foundation.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But if you go out there and you run your fundamentals,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: which is building a player pol where you have reasons
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: for being on people, I'm playing game theory edge wherever
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: you can out there and Showdown, especially in Showdown where
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: it's only an eighteen hole sample size, it's not like
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: four an entire event where you have four full rounds
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: to go out there and work with. There's even more
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: variance when we just have those eighteen holes. Embrace that
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: over there, for your process. So we're going to touch
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: on the player pool first and then some of that
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: game theory stuff afterwards, or we leave off forty five
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: to one good stuff on that dude. That is a
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: heck of a first round leader. Bet so hopefully it
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: got you a few hundred dollars there. PCC is getting
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: nuke this week. It's unfortunate that the weather's making it
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: so easy, because I think if it was firmer and faster,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: it would be a little bit of a different story. Actually,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: set sixty three with three bogies, Yeah, he did. Man,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: there were some crazy rounds out there, and if you
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: were making less than four or five birdies today, you
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: were losing to the field. Birdie average was five point
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: oh seven per rounds. I had to run those averages
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: for my prop stuff, and I think it would go
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: down a little bit tomorrow. But yeah, end of the week,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: if you're not sitting around eighteen to twenty birdies, you're
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: gonna get getting lapped out there. Tellapstoll found a way
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: to get DFL. Yeah, he's been sending in that position
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: for a month or so. At this point, he said,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: you love your commitment to getting that every first round. Yeah.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: He tends to bounce back out there in rounds two
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: and three, though, so we'll see if he continues that
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: trend lately. Killikeith has the personality of an untipped waiter.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: He does, doesn't he? Huh. It gets kind of frazzled
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: out there at times too. Hope that that's a Rita's
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Hope that there's a Rita's ice cart on the course.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: You mean, like the Italian ice stuff? Is that what
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: you're talking about, Joseph, Yeah, because I mean it's gonna
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: be cold tomorrow, so I don't know if tomorrow is
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: the best day for Italian ice. Maybe you're talking about
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: something else though, I don't know how can speak coming
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: off round four stink it up so bad? It's golf.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: It's an eighteen hole sample size. I just mentioned that
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: you only have eighteen holes to work with. Crazy stuff
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: is always going to happen. In fact, you know, if
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: you're surprised what happens over an eighteen hole round of golf,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: then you know I would say, why are you surprised?
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: If you've been following golf long enough, you know that
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: crazy stuff happens. That's why, right, If you thought that
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Jordan Speed was one hundred percent going to go out
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: there nuke today. Then you haven't played golf or haven't
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: followed golf long enough. It's a crazy sport. It's a
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: four letter word for a reason. That's normally what I
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: like to say to my buddies. Roy McRoy, for example,
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, he looked like he was on top of
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: the world heading into this week. He had just a
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: slightly above average round today, right like even that was
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit surprising for me. But it's golf crap happens.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: That's the answer for it is. It's golf crap happens.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: He said, you're the best brother. Thanks for the props,
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: of course, Nicholas, I appreciate you. And yeah, good prop
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: day for sure. I know we're talking about dfs here,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: but props have me hyped for sure. Ended up hitting
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: an eighty percent clip today, which gives you a bunch
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: of units, especially when he went as heavy as I did.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: I knew it was gonna play easy again, quite as
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: easy as what it ended up playing, but took advantage
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: of that, for sure. And can we get a deep
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: dive on cheese steak and no back, Yeah, before we
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: go through the field in some of the shots, gained
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: metrics for ball striking, it's like a no back first,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: So today gained on approach, gained around the green, and
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: then lost off the team with the putter. That's about
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: his average as stat profiles what you're going to see.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I like the fact that he gained on approach, but
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: losing off the tee is not great. And then with
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: the short game categories, he gained around the green, which
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit lucky, but it was only
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: a stroke there, so whatever. And then he lost strokes
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: with the putter, which I would say, I'm okay with
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: him losing strokes with the putter. He's maybe even due
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: some regression over there in that category. The ball striking though,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: was just maybe above average. So yeah, a five and
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: a half, a six out of ten out there on
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: the shots, gained metrics, but no back. With the form
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: that he has heading into this event, I don't think
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: is out of play at all, especially with the kind
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: of Corse fit that he has here. I really like
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the irons in the potter for him, which the potter
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: just needs to come around. It wasn't there today. And
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: then Tom Hogy this one he lost two strokes putting
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I was a lot better on approach to one point
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: six strokes into the positive over there in that category.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: But just like Novak lost strokes off the tee. So
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: both of those guys are gonna have to figure out
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: a way to be better off the tee. Especially with
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the rain tomorrow, that rough is going to be even
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: more penal than what it was for today. So if
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: your guys like Hogy Novak were only hitting like forty
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: maybe fifty percent of their fairways and they're not bombers
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: like you have with these two today, you could get
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: away with it. You still had guys Sheen like minus
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: three minus four going out there and doing that. Tomorrow,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to be the case. So
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: I know I mentioned before like the skill set wasn't
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: going to change that much. Now that I'm thinking through it,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I haven't built my player pool yet. I still have
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: time to go out there and bold my process a bit.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I'm taking off the tea matters a little bit more tomorrow,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: because if you're hitting it in that rough, you're gonna
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: have a hard time going out there and hitting it
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: close because you have wet rough. That's three three and
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: a half inches long. It plays like four or five
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: inches long because it's extra dense, so guys like Novak
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: HOGI for sure gonna have to turn it round off
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: the tee. But the approach play in the Potter regression,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: I think that's a positive for both of those two
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: players as well. And they were okay with the irons,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: so like above average plays, I would say, and so
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: that helps. Thanks, of course, let's go through some shots
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: gained metrics. So I'm gonna go through the field, and
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: my usual starting place is always shots gained ball striking,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: and these guys at the tippy top are going to
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: get some extra steam. Keith Mitchell, no crap is gonna
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: get some steam because he's over there at minus nine
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: first round leaders, adding probably an extra three to five
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: percent ownership right there. But even your sip strac as,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: your JT post ins of the world are going to
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: get clicks from people that are doing their research chants.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: It's not everyone that's going out there and looking at
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: shots gained metrics. A lot of people are just entering
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: lineups on the toilet and kind of dejending it over
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: there in the middle of the nights. But where I
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: really like to go to for these ball striking stats
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: are the slightly sneakier options. So for example, a Keegan
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Bradley who still shot minus six, he'll get some steam
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: because of that score, but he's a little bit further
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: down the board here. And if you can find your
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Daniel Bergers of the world who gained over two strokes
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: ball striking but lost a bunch of strokes putting, these
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: sort of players are the ones that I'll be taking
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: out there in my player pool because he won't be
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: as popular as some of the other guys towards the
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: top end of this list. That these other guys in
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: the top ten, they're all going to get clicked. Justin
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Thomas as well, coming in off the win, he's also
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: going to get clicked out there in a bunch of lineups.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: The first guy here that I could be I could
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: see being averaged maybe to below average ownership, would be
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: your Daniel Bergers. And the ball striking stats are the
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: most consistent part of golf out there from round to rounds.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: If you've been here on the channel before, you've probably
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: say that a million times at this point. But if
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: you're new to golf, the reason why we say that
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: is that your golf swing from data is a lot
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: more consistent than the breaks that you get with your
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: short game. And if you play golf, that is probably
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: very obvious to you. Sounds like I'm probably making it
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: too easy if you go out there and you play
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: a lot of golf, but a lot of people that
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: play pgadfs maybe are newer to the sport or maybe
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: haven't even played this sport at all. What I will
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: tell you, and this has been back tested a thousand
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: times before, this is not conjecture over here. With what
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: I'm about to say, the two short game categories around
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the green and the putter, are the most volatile that
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: you have out there on tour. And it's not like
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit more volatile than the off the
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: team approach stats. They are orders of magnitude more different
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: or more volatile out there from round to round, your
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: air bars, your standard deviations out there with those two
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: categories leave you a lot more wiggle room than what
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: you have in the other two categories. And the reason
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: for that, especially if you've played golf, you would know this.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: You can hit a perfect putt and it won't go
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: in the hole. It'll hit a spike mark, it'll hit
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: just an imperfection out there on the green that makes
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: the ball not go in. And sometimes it's not all
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: the time. Sometimes guys are just putting terribly. They're setup
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: is wrong, their stroke is incorrect, whatever the case may be.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: There's an actual reason for them not making putts. But
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: you hear all the time from these players after their rounds, ah,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: I just don't get anything out of my rounds. Oh,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: I was hitting good putts and they just weren't going in.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: They don't just say that, Like, if you've played golf before,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: you know this is true. That there's a lot of
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: truth to what those players are saying out there. And
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: you know, I've back tested it a bunch of times before.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: We've gone on the channel before here and showed you
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: a bunch of examples of that short game regression happening
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: the ball striking categories though, approach play and off the
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: t play. There's still a lot of variants out there
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: in loose categories, but they are far more consistent, and
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: it's why we want to go out there and lean
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: on those. Now, you're not the only one who knows
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: that this is Like I said, it's not conjecture. This
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: is a well established tenant out there in betting, playing
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: betting on golf, whether they're playing pgdfs on golf, this
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: is something that's been established for quite some time. So
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of people out there know that. That's why
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: I like to go down to these Daniel bergers as
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: opposed to those top few players, because these top few
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: guys are gonna get clicked by a whole bunch of people,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: like they're gonna be five, maybe even ten percent higher
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: owned than some of the other guys around them, whereas
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: the sneakier guys could really give you some leverage out
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: there in those contests. So Corey Connors would be another one.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: He had a really good ball striking day, about two
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: strokes gained over there on the ball striking stats, but
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: lost nearly two strokes out their short game. So you know,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: I looked to him for some regression in Austin ekrote
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: He's got to clean it up off the tee a
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: little bit, but his approach play was excellent. Nearly two
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and a half strokes gained over there with the irons,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: but he gave it all the way out there on
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: the greens. So not all of these guys are going
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: to bounce back and have a big day. But out
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: of Ekrotes a Corey Connors, some of these other guys
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: that we talked about, who was the first one Burger,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: maybe even a Justin Thomas, right, he lost his one
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: point six strokes over there with the putter. Of those
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: three four guys, one or two of them's gonna go
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: out there and have a really good day. And if
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: they go out there and they gained two strokes putting,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: and they continue to go out there and ball strike
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: it like they did, well, that's how you end up
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: having a nutted round and a nutted round to around
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: this golf course was like four maybe five shots gained
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: to the field. And but you'll see what these ball
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: striking guys over here, like a JT is he gained
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: two and a half strokes ball striking. If he goes
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: from losing one and a half strokes putting to gaining
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: one and a half, that's a three stroke difference, and
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: that's five and a half shots gained. Right there, Somebody
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: down here, like Daniel Burger goes from you know, two
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: shots gained ball striking. Let's say he's even just a
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: neutral putting tomorrow, that's five and a half shots gain
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: to the field right there, right, That's how drastic some
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: of these swings can be out there from round to round,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: and why I'm looking for some of those ball strikers.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: So like a Corey Conners, for example, you know he's
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: just under two shots gained over there at the ball striking.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: If he's even just a neutral over there at the
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: a short game tomorrow, you know that could be just
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: under four shots gain to the field. So those sort
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: of players are the ones that are kind of showing
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: up the first in my process. And guys like Sam Burns,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: he hit the ball well today, a Ben Griffin was
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: all so doing very well out there with the ball striking.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I could tell you from following Russell Henley today that
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: it doesn't look like he lost a whole bunch of
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: strokes putting. But if you go hole by hold with
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Russell Henley, he had a stretch of four holes starting
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: on his back side today where he missed four straight
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: putts from less than ten feet. For Bertie, he had
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: a bunch of misses from like five to seven feet
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: out there from Bertie today, so that we had a
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: birdie bogie free round with five birdies out there, really
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: solid production. He could have easily been minus eight out there,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: So you know, he's another one of those players that
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I will definitely be going out there and throwing into
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: a few lineups. Who else really checks the box from
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: the regression standpoint, like, those are mostly the guys I
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: wanted to point out. I guess at Ben Griffin. We
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: pointed him out already too. Patrick Cantley solid from tee
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: to green, but lost a few strokes over there with
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: the shots game putting guys that you could look to
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: for a little bit of regression and in these short
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: game categories if you want to find some fades out
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: there for around number two. I don't hate feeding these
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: guys that gained like four strokes putting. So at Danny McCarthy,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: though I mentioned it earlier and we had the comment
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: from Ross about him putting super well, Denny McCarthy might
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: gain like three strokes putting again, like, that's just what
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Denny McCarthy does. He is the best putter bar nun
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: that we have out there in the world. However, a
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: Cameron Young gaining four strokes putting, there's almost no chance
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: in hell that he does that in two straight days
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: at Joe Hysmith. The Sam Stevens are not consistent putters.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: We know the hits A Key mount Siamaz maybe the
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: most bipolar putter that we have in PJ tore history.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: All these guys like a Keith Mitchell too, he's not
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: a very good putter, Tony finw Colin Moore Kywa. It's crazy,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: by the way, look at this list here. These are
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: all slaptick putters. I mean literally all of them from
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Shane Lowry and above, except for Denny McCarthy, are all
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: slaptick putters that we would not think would be towards
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: the top end of the shots gained putting list. So
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: almost all of these guys that are towards the top here.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say that I'm fading every single
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: one of them, but I might be. I truly might
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: be fading every single player up there that gained like
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: over two shots gained putting, probably not playing Denny because
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: he's in second, And then these other guys here. None
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: of them have really impressive ball striking at all, like
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Sam Stevens. He gained one point two strokes ball striking
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: like he's the one I would maybe consider going out
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: there and playing maybe a Colin Moore Coabba, just because
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: he is an elite tier stud. If anyone's going to
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: go out there and have two nutted days in a row,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: it is going to be a guy like Colin as
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: opposed to, you know, a slappy down towards that six
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: and seven k range. But with the added ownership you're
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: gonna get on. All these guys that played well today,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: they could all be fades out there in my sort
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: of exposure. So you could look at it around the
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: green as well. These guys that got lucky in this
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: category not as likely to go out there and happen tomorrow.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: And you know, if they were struggling with their ball
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: striking stats, it's going to be tough for me to
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: want to go out there and play them. By the way,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Nick Dunlop, he lost six strokes off the tee today.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: That is that feels like impossible, Like it feels like
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I could play a PGA Tour round and lose less
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: than six strokes to the field. And I'm not even
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: just saying that. I legitimately think I could lose less
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: than six strokes to the field out there off the tee.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Nick Dumma needs to figure that out, because the rest
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: of his game wasn't terrible. I mean the rest of
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: his game. He actually gained point eight strips to the
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: field out there from fairway and in if only Nick
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Dunlop could just play in a scramble or something like
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: that where he has somebody else hitting his t shots.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: But these guys around the green, also getting a little
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: bit lucky, could be potential fade candidates. And you know,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: when you flip it on its head and you take
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: a look at some of the guys that struggled in
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: these categories. If you can find players that were okay
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: with the ball striking stats, those are the kind of
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: guys I'm looking for a bounce back from as well.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: And you know, a Glover is always an or he
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: could candidate these guys that had horrendous days today, you know,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: shooting like plus two, plus three, that kind of thing.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: They're never going to look good on paper, but you
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: can always say or he could about those sort of guys.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: And I will take shots on players that had horrible
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: days like that in a no cut event like this,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: if they're high upside players, now as Lucas Glover is
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: who super high upside player, probably not, so he might
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: not make my player pool. But on these guys like
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Xander Schaffley though that lost one point two shokes around
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the green and we're decent with the ball striking stats
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: like these are guys I consider adding to my player pool.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: A Chris kirk over here, like he was okay with
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the ball striking but lost over a stroke with the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: short game. Maybe he'd be a short game regression candidate
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: that I'm looking at. And he could say about a
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Kegan Bradley, right, he's probably not gonna lose like a
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: stroke around the green all that often. Tommy Fleetwood, he
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: could be a lot better out there with the short
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: game as well. Unfortunately for Tommy though, he also wasn't
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: that good with the iron. So ideally we'd want to
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: find somebody that's gaining in the two ball striking categories
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: but losing in both of the short game categories. You're
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: not always gonna find perfect fits for that sort of
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: a player, but you'll find them occasionally, and even if
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: they aren't perfect, you can still use that kind of
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: idea to your advantage. So whether it's around the green
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: or especially over there with the putter. The around the
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: green regression I don't look for as much. It's mostly
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: this putting regression that I'm looking for. He already talked
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: about burger a Victor Hovelin due to make a lot
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: more putts. He was pretty solid from tee to green.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: You can see a Maddy Fitzpatrick. He was also decent
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: except for his off the tee play today, but lost
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: nearly three strokes putting. A lot of these players are
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: gonna make my player pool, so justin Rose. He's also
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: a really good vent grass putter at Jordan's speed. He
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: puts well on fast bent grass greens, so he's the
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: kind of guy I might look to for a little
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: bit of a bounce back there. So if you can
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: find you guys that lost a whole bunch of strokes
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: over here putting but are normally good on this kind
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: of surface, then you know, unlike the guys that gained
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of strokes that I'm avoiding. I want
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: to get to those players that are due to go
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: out there and regress positively. So that's how I use
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: the shots gain metrics to my advantage. And because we
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: don't have a massive weather edge out there, it makes
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: it even more important to go out there and build
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: a solid player pol. You know, when we have a
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: weather advantage to go out there and lean on, it
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: sometimes makes our job a little bit easier to go
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: out there and build a player pol because we can
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: eliminate like half the field just based on the weather alone.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: And then you go out there and you just kind
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: of pick your favorites out there from that given wave.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Because we're going to have more choices with a wide
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: open weather situation only the two hours spread from the
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: first to last tea time, you're gonna have to be
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: more selective about the players that you're looking for. So
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: I have ball striking poppers out there in my player pool.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: That's what I'll be adding out there to my exposure
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: over there for my Patreon page and what I'm doing
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: with my exposure, I'll be adding some high upside players,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: so those would be high birdy percentage guys, also good
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: part five scores, and then those short game regression candidates.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Since normally there are four things I'm looking for in
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: a round two and three showdown slate, But because we
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: don't have any course history around Philly Cricket Club. Obviously,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not looking for course history guys out here for
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: Rounds two and three. So it's just going to be
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: those three categories for me out there in my exposure
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: and just because those are the three things that I'm
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: looking for out there and players. It doesn't have to
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: be what you're using. You can have your own process.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: You can adapt it your own way for what works
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: best for you out there for your lineups and your success.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: You can look at, for example, the ship at Nation
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Stone and try and find some Round two players, players
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: that just on Fridays tend to have a lot of success.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: That's not a bad way to go out there and
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: add something to your process. You can use the approach series,
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: the putting series that they have over there on the Stone.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: If you want to look at bombers, maybe you do that.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe you want to go after some weather guys because
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: it's going to be rainy and a little bit windy tomorrow.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: You can make that a narrative that you're going after.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Some of them might be tougher to pull off than others.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Some of them you'll have just easy data to go
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: and work off of, like driving distance for example, but
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: if you go after the weather narrative, that one is
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: going to be a lot harder to go out there
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: and narrow down. So, whatever the case is, have a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: process for going out there and choosing the players that
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: you're getting to, and don't just pick your names out
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: of a hat. That is the one piece of advice
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna take anything from this video, it's game
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: theory going out there and getting different to the field.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: The other thing is having an actual reason for going
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: out there and clicking names. My biggest pet peeve is
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: when I'm like getting questions or you know, I'm watching
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: somebody build a lineup and trying to kind of give
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: him some feedback out there for what I think, and
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: they're just like, you know, I'll pick this guy because
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: he's low owned. Okay, first off, let's pump the brakes
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: out there a little bit. There are a lot of
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: guys there are going to be low owned out there
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: for a round two show down. We've got seventy two
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: players to choose from, so low owned, we've got like
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: forty guys that fit that. Why else are you playing
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: that player? Right? It shouldn't just be low ownership that's
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: getting you onto this sort of guy, because you're gonna
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: have plenty of those to comb through, So have a
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: reason on top of that to go out there and
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: add people to your player pool. That would be my
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: main piece of advice out there for this kind of
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: a slate. Whe'd we leave off and see if there's
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: any other questions? So with the rain coming in, do
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: you think we have preferred lives? I would say so, ross,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: especially with how much rain they're calling for, and because
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: they're starting before the rain comes, there's a really good
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: chance that they use those preferred lives. I'm not sure
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: what about Burger. Yeah, Berger's putting is probably what you're
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: referring to there. Crazy stuff that he lost over three
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: strokes there that's going on. Oliver said, already got the
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: VRBO in Dublin for the Steelers game. Am I making
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: the trip? Yeah? I would love to go, man. I
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: haven't booked anything quite yet. I know that my mom's going,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: some of my aunts and uncles are going as well
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: that are big Steeler fans. They invited me. I have
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: to see whether I sneak my way over there or not.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I haven't made the planes quite yet, though it sounds
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: like a lot of fun and enjoy it over there, dude.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: That's a I can't think of a better to watch
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: a football game than in Dublin. In a few pints
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: out there, then walk into the game. That just sounds
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: like absolute cinema, man, he said. Thoughts on posting. Gained
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: across the board except with the flat stick. That sounds
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: like a pretty good JT post in stat profile because
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: normally he's a really good putter and the rest of
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: the game can be a little bit inconsistent. And like
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: you said, you're spot on. Gained into three T to
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: green categories but lost just under a stroke over there
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: with the putter, it's a good stat profile. The one
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: thing I will say about JT posting is because he
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: shot minus five and he's there at T eleven, he's
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be a little bit more popular for round two
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: showdown than what he was for meinslate. And I'm not
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: talking about mega chalk out there for a round number two,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: but as opposed to single digit ownership like you had
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: for mean slate, there's a chance that he creeps up
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: closer to like ten percent. So you can use posting,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: especially with this kind of stat profile, Like if there's
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: somebody over there at T eleven that you're gonna take
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: with some inflated ownership. It is this kind of stat
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: profile that's so favorable. But if you're looking for a
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: seven k range guy to get you some differentiation, to
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: try and perhaps make sure you're not duplicating yourself out
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: there with other lineups, Posting isn't the best player for
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: that scenario. Now, that's only just one specific scenario where
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: he's not the best play. But if you're talking about
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: single entries, you're talking about a lineup where you already
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: have that differentiation squared away other guys, maybe a six
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: and eight k range guy that you're using that super
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: low owned, then posting it makes a whole lot of
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: sense in those kind of builds. So yeah, if you
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: want to point out the ownership angle, and I'm speaking
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: for my projections what I do for my site, I
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: will tell you that guys at post in I bump
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: up with the projections on my site because there's one
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: thing I know out there about PGADFS players is that
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: they like playing guys that are in form and they
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: like guys that have really good tee to green stats.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: So you know as much as I agree with that.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: We talk about that all the time here on the channel.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: It does have the unfortunate side effect with other people
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: also being on those sort of plays. What I say
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: that FITZI is in play. He started off slow but
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: hit some good approaches down the stretch. In play for sure,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: I really don't think there's anyone I would say is
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: out of play for tomorrow, unless you're talking about the
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: mega chalk towards the top, like some of that is
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: an automatic cross off for me. But in terms of
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: like your pivots towards the bottom, there's nothing that's too
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: nasty for me to consider, Like even a Nick Dunlop.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: We saw him have the bounce back round two over
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: there at the Masters. We've seen crazier things happen than
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: somebody like him getting there. So yeah, I wouldn't roll
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: anyone out in Fitsie for sure. In play, is there
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: anywhere to see fairways hits? Yeah, louis so over here
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: on the right we have the fairway percentage here. This
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: is on bet the Number, but a lot of other
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: websites databases that have a live leaderboard are also going
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: to have this on there. But even if you don't
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: have access to one of those sort of sites. I'll
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: show you how to find it over here on pgatour
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: dot com. If you go over here to the leaderboard
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: over here on the top left corner, you click on
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: a player. Then you go over here to the stats tab.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Just click on round number one and you can see
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: their driving accuracy. They're gonna show it in percentage for
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: him first and then the actual raw number afterwards. So
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: hopefully that helps you out there, man, I know it's
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit annoying to have to do it player
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: by player. If you have access to a site like
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: bet the Number, which by the way, I'm a huge
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: proponent for. There's somebody that I partner with myself over
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: there on the content that I do on my channel.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: You're going to get that for every player and it
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: updates live over here i Bet the Number. That's why
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: what I really like about it. I'm somebody that does
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: a lot of prop stuff, like prop betting on like
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: prize picks and underdogs, and it gives me a good
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: way to track it live without having to like run
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: down every single hole or anything like that. Get two
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: oh B on the one hole for dunlap cheez Louise Man.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: So that's like three or four shots gamed right there.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: He wasn't that good outside of that whole wi other
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: huh dunlops is that off the teas McCarthy isn't cutting.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on that one. He said, it
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: looks like a decent day to wear two gloves tomorrow. Yeah,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: Aaron Ry could be a duck's paradise out there with
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: all that rain. Who knows. Thor Bjornson four putt from
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: fifteen feet today with something. Yeah, I've seen it happen
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: with tour players though, and like it's usually a lack
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: of concentration. People run putts by by four or five
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: feet all the time. The issue is is when you
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: run the next one by four feet, So when you
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: get upset about it, like a John Ram sometimes does.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Thorp Jordson tends to be a little bit fiery as well.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: You'll run it by and then you run the next
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: one by like four or five feet. I mean, it
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: could just happen like a four or five foot or
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: isn't going to be made every single time. So yeah,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: unfortunate man, but they're tour pros. It happens to me
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: all the time on the golf course, so I can't.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: I can't dog them too much if it happens to me.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: And he said deep dive on Shane Lowry. Yeah, why not?
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: So good old Shane Lowry today he gains in every category.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Butt off the T very consistent shots, games profile there.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: I would say kind of like post and it's not
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: kind of talky off of them or anything like that.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: But there's two things I would say that would be
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: working against Shane Lowry here because he's T seven, so
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: he's going to get slightly inflated ownership as some of
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: the other guys at T eleven are better, especially like
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: T seven are better over there. A lot of your
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: casual players, people that are newer to playing golf. We'll
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: see somebody shooting minus six the one day and go, hey,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: if they shot minus six yesterday, then why wouldn't I
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: use them the next day? Right? If they shoot minus six,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: they go out there and do that again, and then
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: I would be thrilled out there from that sort of play.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: That's not how golf works. Though golf is an extremely
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: variant sport. Scoring average was closer to minus three, and
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: you know, after somebody like Shane Lowry gains one point
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: five strokes over there with the putter, it's gonna be
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: tough for him to back that up. So could he
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: still shoot minus six by going out there and throwing
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: a bunch of darts gaining like two strokes approach? Yeah, obviously,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: like he could go out there and get that get
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: it done that way, But he's he going to go
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: out there and carry himself with the putter two days
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: in a row. I have a hard time thinking that
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: that is going to happen. So I'll just mention that
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's my favorite play out there for tomorrow.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to be using a Shane Lowry out
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: there in my lineups just because he's going to be
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: average to above average ownership over there in that eight
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: k range, and he's maybe due for some regression over
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: there with the putter. And I don't mean the good
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: regression that we were talking about with the guys that
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: were losing like two to three strokes putting. I'm talking
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: about the other way around, right where you go from
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: gaining one and a half two strokes putting to having
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: an average to below average day. So that would be
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: the concern there with the Shane Lowry what went wrong
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: with Harmon? So let's look at it. No idea to
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: be frank with you. Brian Harmon lost in every category
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: butt around the green? So he just played terrible golf today.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Nothing much to say about it other than it's golf.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: It's a four letter word and some guys are going
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: to struggle from time to time. Thoughts on guys who
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: are usually sawid with approach that lost heavy and round
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: number one. Yeah, so it's just an eighteen hoole sample size.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't overreact to those ones that much. In fact,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: like if you're using the approach series over there on
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: ship at Nation, those kind of guys are going to
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: be due for some regression using a tool like that.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: So I'm okay with that kind of thing as long
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: as they weren't like Spike putting on top of that. Right, So,
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: like for example, Fleetwood, let's slick at his shots game metrics.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: He had gone out there, he lost one point two
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: strokes approach and then you know, is maybe due for
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: some short game regression, Like I actually like him out
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: there for tomorrow. Let's look at o'bar though, O Bear
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: lost strokes over there on approach and then gained in
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: the other three categories, Like O, Bear's gonna get played tomorrow,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: He'll probably be above average ownership. I'd say over there
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: in that nine K range. Fleetwood, though, and the shots
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: gained profiles really aren't all that much different. Fleetwood might
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: be below average ownership compared to some of the other
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: guys around him. If you're gonna take a chance on
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: the guy that lost strokes on approach, I preferred on
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: the guys that are slightly lower owned, is what I
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: would say there, Ross is I wouldn't do it on
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: guys that are chalk. Rory can fall into that category.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: So guys that are normally good on approach that struggled, Yeah, Rory,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what his ownership's gonna be. I mean,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: I still have to run my projections and whatnot. I
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: have to think maybe closer to like twenty five thirty
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: percent tomorrow. I think he's gonna come down the here
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: just because it's Showdown. When it's a more balatile format,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of your studs don't get played as much
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: as what they are for main sleet, and it makes
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: sense when you have four four rounds, the cream is
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: going to rise to the top a little bit more
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: so it's more of a priority to play guys like
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: a Scotti or Rory when you have four rounds. So
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: if he's a let me call it thirty percent, it's
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: just a guess. I still have to run my algorithm
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. I so I have to adjust based on
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: sentiment out there to what I think where he's going
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: to come in at. But thirty percent owns Rory McRory, Like,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he'd be the best person to
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: take a shot on with these losing strokes on approach. Yeah,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I'd prefer it with like those fleetwoods of the world.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: And you know, Rory might be a little bit lower
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: owned out there for Showdown tomorrow, but he's not going
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: to be low owned by any means, right. That's why
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: I had that hesitation out there with whether I thought
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: he was a good player or not. He's still going
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: to be like thirty percent owned, right, So even though
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: it is a slight ownership discount compared to me and Slate,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure if it's like something I'm running to
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: go out there and play fair enough, of course, Yeah,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: And I've got to say that with some guys just
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: playing terrible. Sometimes when you like accept that about players too,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: it really helps you with like finding bounce that candidates,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: because those kind of guys sometimes they find it overnight.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: They'll go out there. They have like a nutted round
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: at like no ownership, and somebody like Brian Harmon tomorrow
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: he was like decent ownership in main slate. This week
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: people are playing him. I think he was like eight
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: maybe nine percent owned, depending on the contest that you
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: were entering. Tomorrow, he's like half the ownership of that.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: He's probably gonna be like four or five percent owned
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: out there in my ownership projections. If anything, he's a
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: better play now because it's an eighteen hole sample size.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: He can find some regression candidates. And if you liked
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: him for mainslate, then why wouldn't you like him just
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: after one bad round. So yeah, consider, and I'm not
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: gonna say to do it with Brian Harmon specifically, but
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: consider giving some of those players a break, especially only
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: after just eighteen holes. Of course, louis best to luck
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: out there with all of your exposure and appreciate you
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: hitting that like fun, He said, what about Kim Young
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: with a deep dive. Yeah, so we kind of looked
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: at him before. But the issue is the potter. He
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: gained four strokes putting today and then lost with the
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: two ball striking categories. I have a hard time thinking
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: that he's gonna go out there and carry his with
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: four shots game putting again. Now, could Cam Young go
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: out there and still have a good round, Yes, It's
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: just that if he's gonna shoot like minus four minus
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: five tomorrow, it's gonna be because he turned around the
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: ball striking stats. It's not gonna be because he went
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: out there and gained four strokes putting. And if he
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: goes out there and he struggles with the ball striking
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: again and then he's even just a neutral over there
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: with the putting, then he's shooting an even par round
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: and losing like three strokes to the field. So that's
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: the argument against to Cam Young. And I've got to
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: say this kind of stat profile. The only reason I
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: would play somebody with this kind of stat profile, like
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: losing all those shots t to Green, is if they
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: were unowned. And because Cam Young's in T twenty five,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna be unowned, like I think
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: he'll be at least average ownership over there in that
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: six k range, if not even slightly above average ownership
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: because of how he played today, So unfortunately not my
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: favorite play, but he could get there. I always like
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: to throw out that asterisk because if he gains the
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: ball striking back, you never know. Let's talk about some
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: contests for tomorrow, so if you have any player deep,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: so we'll go back to those after we go through
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: some strategy here together. But in terms of the contest
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: for tomorrow, they're pretty shitty. They're actually smaller than what
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: we're used to seeing now. I think partially because of
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: the weather, they didn't want to go out there and
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: post a whole bunch of contests. But like even the
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: five five to five is smaller than normal, but it
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: is less top heavy than normal, so you know, maybe
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a double edged sword there,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit of sweet and sour. I guess out
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: there with this kind of setup, because it is smaller,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: you're not going to have as big a first place prizes.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: But some of these palout structures are a little bit
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: flatter than what the otherwise would be. This two hundred
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: and fifty dollars formax is not an example of one
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: of those, though. This is still a third to first place,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: so still extremely top heavy compared to some of the others.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: But the long drive, so the big one hundred dollars
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: single entry that is fifteen percent the first place. That
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: is a pretty good payout structure for single entry. The
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: big five dollars GPP is a fifth over there to
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: first place. So it's a top heavy, but it's not
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: as bad as it could be, right, it's not twenty
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: five thirty percent out there to first place. This kind
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: of twenty percent number that you have right there is
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: at least playable enough for me out there in my exposure.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: So I'll probably have fifty lineups in this five dollars.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I'll enter this one hundred dollars long drive as well.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: You've got the five dollars single entries down here, thirty
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: three dollars single entries, twelve dollars albatrosses that I like
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: to go out there and enter. And then you even
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: have this forty four dollars. Let me see if they
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: even have it posted. They might not over there for tomorrow.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: The forty four dollars one I saw was, yeah, this
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: one right here, this sandtrap. Wait, what am I looking
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: at here? Looking at the wrong contest? What was that there?
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: So this is the normal gppiece all right, but I
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: clicked on the wrong one there. The big twenty five
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: dollars for tomorrow is also a one forty one max entry,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: so I don't know why they're starting with this one
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: forty one stuff. It's normally always a one fifty max.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: But this is also only a fifth over there to
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: first place, So this sandtrap is a lot smaller entry
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: wise than what we're used to seeing. That's why it
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: has such a smaller prize pool, right, Normally it's like
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: closer to like two hundred grand that we have out
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: here in this sort of contest. But what it does
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: give us is the slightly better payout structure for that
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: top five, top ten. So even this twenty five dollars
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: GPP I think is pretty playable. But let me see
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: if they have the ten dollars eighteen max. It's a
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: pipe dream that they would post it, but you never know,
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: I guess. So yeah, I don't see the ten dollars
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: eighteen max posted quite yet. So if you're somebody that's
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: just playing this as a hobby, right, trying to go
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: out there get some action in from round number two.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: Stick to these sort of contests like this four k
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: dog leg that you have here, where it's a ten
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: percent out there to first place, a flat payout structure.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: After that, where's the twelve dollars albatross? Was that one
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: further down? Say, yeah, here's the twelve dollars albatross. I
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: was talking about smaller contests of what we're used to seeing.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: But when it's close to that ten percent that you're
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: getting out there to first place, you know the rest
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: of the payouts out there for the top five, top
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: ten are going to be respectful enough that you're at
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: least still winning something if you go out there and
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: have yourself a good lineup. So check out those sort
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: of builds if you're looking to go out there and
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: find the best payout structures, if you want to go
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: out there and fully djen just one of the logic
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: lottos like this big five dollars, twenty five dollars, they've
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: got those posted as well. Just the payouts out there
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: for first place maybe aren't gonna be as big as
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: what you're used to seeing in terms of putting together lineups.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Rounds two and three showdown. All comes down to leverage,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: especially when we don't have a weather edge like we
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: have for tomorrow. Just because of the weather situation. In
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: a t time situation that we have at hand, it's
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: gonna be making sure that we have enough leverage in
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: our builds. And it doesn't mean that you have to
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: fade all of the chalk. Like you can have somebody
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: with some ownership sneaking into lineups in different places, but
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't get too crazy when it comes to some
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: of that chalk. So I'm gonna throw it a JT
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: there who I liked the shots game metrics on a
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: GT right. If you guys remember with him before he
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: had been gaining with the ball striking but lost strokes
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: over there with the putter, So you know, he was
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: one of those guys towards the top five of the
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: ball striking that we could go out there and play. Unfortunately, though,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be chalk, like I think he's gonna be
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: probably about twenty percent of out there in gppis tomorrow.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: So let's start with somebody that has some ownership, but
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: he's maybe not the thirty five percent. Rory McIlroy second
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: in I'm gonna throwing a Russell Henley, who's also due
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: to go out there and make a few more putts
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: if by the way, if you don't believe you with that,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: just go hole by hole and follow Russell Henley. He
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: missed just so many birdie putts today it was disgusting.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: And I think it'll be maybe average to slightly below
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: up actually yeah, probably about average ownership, i'd say over
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: there at T eleven. So we're starting with the pretty
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: chalky one two here, but two guys that really fit
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: the bill. When it comes to the shots game metrics,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: we have four other spots to get different and whether
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: this is in a large field GPP or over there
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: in a single inunch y or a smaller field contest,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: you could get away with this kind of a start.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: But depending on how big the contest that you're entering is,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: that's where you have to figure out how much leverage
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: you need. Because if this was a cash line up,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: for example, we don't care about leverage at all. Go
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: out there and play all the best plays. If you're
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: playing in a double upper fifty to fifty that kind
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: of thing. If you're playing in a single uture against
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: just a couple hundred people like you know, one hundred
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: and fifty like you have in that albatross that we
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: just went through, then maybe you only need like one
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: or two pivots out there in your lineup. But if
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: you're playing in the big twenty five dollars or five
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: dollars GPP, which maybe isn't as big over there for tomorrow,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: but big enough to where you still have to have
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: leverage out there in your lineups, you probably want at
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: least two pivots out there in your lineups, if not three,
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: of your last four players here. So, for the sake
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: of making this a little bit more interesting going through
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: the lineup construction, let's assume we're entering this for the
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: big twenty five or five dollars GPP, where we're actually
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: entering against five to six thousand other people. So for
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: our next man in, we have to kind of start
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: to think about the ownership. We might, and I'll stress,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: might be able to get away with playing somebody that
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: has some ownership for our last four spots, but most
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: of the players we're getting to here have to be
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: pretty low owned. So I'm gonna throw into Brian Harmon
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: as a potential bounce back. Do I think he's my
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: favorite play for tomorrow? Am I even sure whether he's
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: going to be in my player poll or not? No,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure whether I'm going to be on Brian Harmon.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: A lot of that is going to come down to
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: where his ownership comes in. But compared to some of
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the other guys around him at that portion of the board,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: he's going to be average to blow averagely owned. So
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: maybe it's a Harmon, maybe it's a Justin Rosie Goo
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: out there and throw in. I kind of really like
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: the putting regression for Rose. He's usually a much much
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: better putter on these fast bent grass greens, So maybe
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: let's go with Rose instead of going with Harmon there,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: but also a little bit lower owned than some of
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: the other guys around him because he's there at t
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. Next man in, let's also think about the ownership,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: so like you'd really want to avoid guys like Keith
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Mitchell here at minus nine, he's going to be extremely popular,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: whereas if we go up here to a Windom Clark.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: You By the way, the shots gained metrics for the
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: approach played with Clark were terrible today, lost three strokes
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: in that category. But I won't completely condemn somebody just
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: based on how they played today if there's another reason
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: for getting to them. And with a Wyndham Clark, the
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: clear reasoning for why you'd ever want to play winning
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: Clark out there and showdown is that he's one of
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: the highest BIRDI percentage players that you have on the
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: PGA Tour. Last year was top five and birdier better percentage.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: He's a great par five scorer, and he's a really
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: good putter when he goes out there and gets the
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: speed for the greens, and today that was not the case.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: I guess the over here he lost strokes over there
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: on the greens. But even if tomorrow he's a neutral
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: over there on approach and then we get a spike
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: round with the putter, which happens quite often for Wyndom
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: Clark because he is one of the best putters that
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: we have out there on the PGA Tour, then watch out.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: It could be a nuclear low round for him. And
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do this with just anyone. Like I said,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: the shots gained approach is a huge red flag out
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: there on players. But I will look the other way
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: on guys when they're so high upside and they're so
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: low owned. Is what you have there with a Wyndom Clark,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: So let's throw him in there at seventy eight hundred dollars.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: You give even use of Robert McIntyre for a little
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: bit of leverage, give us closer to eight grand for
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: mainslate now a little bit cheaper. And because he didn't
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: play that well, I don't think he's going to get
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: all that kind of steam. And then even if they're
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: last man in here I mentioned with one of your
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: last four spots, you can still get away with taking
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: some ownership. Even if you wanted to take a chalkier
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: guy like an Eric Cole Sam Stevens there and spend
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: all of your salary, even a Tony Fenale over there
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: at seventy two hundred dollars, any of these guys that
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: are probably closer to seven to ten percent ownership, you
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: could probably get away with it even in that five
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: to twenty five dollars GPP because of these ownership pivots
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: that you were intentional about making forcing in players that
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: were sub ten percent owns. Now, if we had been
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: a little bit more lenient with our ownership before. So
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: maybe we had played a Novak who I think is
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: a good play by the way out there for tomorrow,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: but he's a little bit higher owned what you have
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: with somebody like a Justin Rose your last minute here
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: on that five dollars or that twenty five dollars GPP,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: you might not want to take a piece of chalk. Now.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: We're also having to go two undred dollars cheaper, right,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: so you're not going to have those same guys at
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: seventy two hundred dollars. They're all getting that ownership, But
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: like even a grazierman or an Eric van Royan or
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: a Rasmus boyguard here, they're gonna be a little bit
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: more popular than some of the other guys around them.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: In those bigger contests. You might have to think twice
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: before going out there and playing that kind of choky player.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: So that's where the lineup construction comes in, right. It's
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: not who you play and is how you play them
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: that matters out there in your GPPs. It's just a
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: balancing act depending on the contest that you're entering. If
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: you're in a cash contest, you're not really balancing anything.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: If you're in a single entry, you're kind of balancing
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: that ownership, right, maybe going like a four to two
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: that kind of thing for decently owned guys two pivots
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: in that kind of build GPPs, though you might want
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: to extend that out there to a three to three
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: where it's like at most three guys that are getting
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: some ownership and then three guys that are potentially being
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: used as pivots out there on those builds. So that's
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: it out there for the Round two live stream, though, guys,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: that's it for everything I needed to go over. I
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: will see if there's any last second questions down there
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: in the chat, So if there is anything that you're
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: curiously going, go ahead and hit me right now down
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: there in the chat before we hoping out a year.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: But best of luck with everything that you guys are
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: going with, whether it's over there with your GPP exposure
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: up to see your names towards the top of some
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: of those GPPs. Hopefully your mainstet exposure can go out
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: there and rise towards the top over the next few
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: days as well, and of course out there for all
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: the prop and bedding stuff over here for round number two,
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: make sure to check out my live stream a little
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: bit later on tonight's over there on my YouTube channel,
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: so that it'll be over there on GSOOPFS. To start
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: time for that is going to be at nine pm
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: Eastern time, And today we had an eighty percent clip
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: on the twenty props that we entered, so it was
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: one of the better days of the year when it
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: came to our prop exposure. And I like the new
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: golf courses. If you can't tell like I'm a huge
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: golf course nerd, I'm somebody that prides myself and really
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: being able to break down conditions and get a good
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: idea of what to expect ahead of time. And on
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: a day like this where the sportsbooks have no idea
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: what to expect, you know, it's the day to go
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: out there and take advantage. So you know, some people
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: in a day like this might be a little bit
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: hesitant because they don't know what to expect. But if
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: you see an edge out there, right, you've got to
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: lean into it as much as humanly possible. So I'm
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: not sure what they're going to do with the pricing
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: out there for Round two quite yet, I would assume
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: that they're going to make it more favorable. Right, they're
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: going to push those Strokes lines down, so they're probably
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: going to bump up some of those Bury lines too,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: but maybe that makes some value on the fades then,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: right if they overdo it over there with those boards.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: So for all the prop stuff, make sure check out
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: my live stream for all that a little bit later on,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: and the of course guys for all the ship at
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: Nation content, make sure check out their website out there
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: for the stone for tomorrow that's going to have the
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: Approach series, the putting series that I was hinting at before,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: also that round too historical that you can use for
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: building your player pull and make sure check out my
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Patreon page for all the projections that I'm doing. So
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: ship it Nation great tools out there themselves, a great
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: community for helping you guys learn the dfs. And of
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: course I run my own website where I do a
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: lot of the same, so I would highly recommend that
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: you join my site also over there at ship it Nation.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: Get all the possible tools that you can out there
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: for your next day's process. Because you know I run
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: my own projections, you can use those for some perspective
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: my own ownership. You can use the ship it Nation
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: Stone It's got so much on there. I mean, it's
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: got stuff that I don't cover on there for sure.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Right you can go out there and use for your process,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: and then they've got their projections that you can add
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: for even more further perspective on top of that. So
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: I can't recommend enough joining both sites. Ship it Nation
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: you can find down there in the description, and then
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: my patron page is also gsloop DFS, so I can
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: find that on my Twitter bio. You can find it
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: on any of the descriptions and the videos that I
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: post over there on YouTube. On there, I've got my projections,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: my player pole, my modeling out there for showdown stuff.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: You've probably seen it before right over here on these
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: YouTube videos in the past. But it's all about guys.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Best of luck with everything that you guys are going with,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: and let me see if there's a need last second
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: questions to go through. Let's see, of course, Doug, best
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: of luck with your stuff. Let's do a little deep
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: dive on Grazierman. So I like the call there on
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Grazerman somebody I was looking to for a little bit
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: of a high upside play this week. Shots gained wise, though,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: he was close to average in all four categories, slightly
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: positive off the tee, slightly negative out there with the
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: approach play, and then uh yeah, losing around the green
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: but gaining with the putter. This shots gained profile doesn't
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: really tell us very much, but what I will say
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: is that this green and regulation number, him hitting eighty
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: three percent of the greens, shows that he was in
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: pretty decent control of his game. And you can see
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: over here you must have hit a wild drive at
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: seven because he missed the fairway and the green there seventeen,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: the same thing that was another one of his bogie holes,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: missed the fairway and the green. If he can clean
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: up the off the tea a little bit tomorrow, maybe
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: you know he's long off the tee. So the fact
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: that he was only slightly positive in that category, he
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: tells me that he could have been a little bit
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: more accurate with some of those drives if he cleans
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: that up. This looks like a really good stat profile,
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: and you might not notice that at first because he
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: is so close to neutral across all four categories, but
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: it was really just two holes that held him back
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: from greatness. He put up five birdies. That was about
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: the field average today, and that was despite only being
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: a slightly above average putter. So imagine, if he has
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: his typical self, he's one of the best bent grass
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: putters that we have in this entire field. He gains
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: about a stroke per round out there on bent grass
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: for his field average, for his career average, I should say, actually,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: then he'd be in an even better spot to what
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: you had for round number one. So yeah, Max Grazeman
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: like a five out of ten on paper, but could
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: be a little bit better. He said, great show, good
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: luck tomorrow. Yeah, absolutely, man. I appreciate the kind words there,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: and best luck yourself with everything, but it's all about guys.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Let's go out there and smash our exposure out there
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: for round number two and see you guys a little
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: bit later on this evening for the Problem Bidding live
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: stream over there on my channel