Latest / The Morning Edition / Peter Hartcher: Donald Trump is now a ‘genocidal tyrant’

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Peter Hartcher: Donald Trump is now a ‘genocidal tyrant’ · The Morning Edition

0:07
S1: Donald Trump has backed down at the 11th hour from
0:10
S1: his horrifying threat to, as the US president put it himself,
0:14
S1: unleash destruction on Iran's entire civilization. Both sides have now
0:19
S1: said they have agreed to a two week ceasefire, which
0:21
S1: includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris,
0:26
S1: and you're listening to Morning Edition from the Age and
0:28
S1: The Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor Peter
0:32
S1: Hartcher on how to make sense of the events of
0:35
S1: the last 24 hours and whether in two weeks, the
0:38
S1: world is likely to be yet again on the brink
0:41
S1: of carnage. Peter, welcome back to the podcast.
0:48
S2: Good to see you, Samantha.
0:49
S1: Okay, so we've got to talk about the extraordinary events
0:53
S1: that have taken place only hours before. We're recording this
0:56
S1: on Wednesday at lunchtime. Can you just begin by walking
0:59
S1: us through the really extraordinary threat that Donald Trump posted
1:03
S1: on social media. And then what sort of, I guess,
1:06
S1: shock waves. It's it's made through the globe.
1:10
S2: Well, he threatened Iran that unless it opened the Strait
1:13
S2: of Hormuz, he would destroy an entire civilization. He said
1:19
S2: it mightn't happen, but it probably will. Now there's exaggeration,
1:24
S2: there's trumpisms. But this is a completely new realm where
1:31
S2: he has overstepped all bounds of civilization itself. Uh, to
1:36
S2: threaten to destroy not a military enemy, but a whole state,
1:42
S2: its population and its culture. I'm not going to pretend
1:47
S2: that it's some virtuous, enlightened group that he's he's threatening,
1:53
S2: but he is nonetheless threatening a country of 93 million
1:57
S2: people and its ancient civilization. This is another Holocaust by
2:04
S2: a different name. What's the difference? The eradication of one
2:08
S2: people and their culture and history by another country, another people.
2:14
S2: It is a holocaust. It's a genocide by any definition.
2:18
S2: And for the president of the US to be committing
2:21
S2: this to print and threatening another country with this, in
2:26
S2: the midst of a tense and difficult war and negotiation
2:28
S2: or prelude to a negotiation, marks a threshold, I think,
2:35
S2: in contemporary history, where the US has gone from being
2:41
S2: the protector of liberty and the upholder of rights and
2:47
S2: laws throughout the world to being one of its most
2:51
S2: flagrant violators. And this is just a shocking moment, I moment.
2:55
S2: I think for anybody who has lived in the US
3:01
S2: or allied countries or in fact, any country in our
3:04
S2: lifetimes and even predating World War Two.
3:08
S1: Absolutely. And I'm sure you as as I did and
3:11
S1: many listeners might have as well, they've seen numerous American commentators,
3:16
S1: seasoned political analysts, really gobsmacked by by this moment. I
3:19
S1: know I saw Charlie Sykes, he used to be sort
3:22
S1: of at the center of the conservative movement in the
3:24
S1: United States. And he said, this is the way that
3:25
S1: monsters of history speak and this particular threat. He said,
3:30
S1: when he's talking about wiping out one of the world's
3:32
S1: oldest civilizations, whether he follows through on that or not
3:36
S1: feels like a turning point in America's 250 year experiment
3:40
S1: in liberal constitutional democracy. He said, I certainly can't remember
3:44
S1: any other time when any leader of a liberal democracy
3:46
S1: has threatened to destroy a civilization. I mean, even Tucker
3:50
S1: Carlson sort of was imploring members of the military that
3:54
S1: if they were so directed to annihilate the Iranian people,
3:58
S1: he said, everything hangs in the balance. Now, this is
4:00
S1: not hysteria. This is 100% real. I mean, that sort
4:04
S1: of says something, doesn't it, when you've got those voices
4:07
S1: on the verge of freaking out.
4:09
S2: It is. And he represents a whole echelon of prominent
4:12
S2: Maga figures who have drawn a line at this and said,
4:16
S2: this is just too, too much. Marjorie Taylor Greene and
4:20
S2: Tucker and a bunch of others have called for the
4:23
S2: 25th amendment to be invoked to remove Trump from office.
4:27
S2: But it is also a broader test, as you've. Just
4:29
S2: as he suggested, of the US as a country. This is,
4:34
S2: of course, about Trump. But this is a test now
4:36
S2: of the US and how far it will cooperate with this.
4:41
S2: Based on his own words, this genocidal tyrant. What does
4:47
S2: the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Dan Kane, say when
4:50
S2: he gets an order which he knows and all the
4:54
S2: all those senior ranks in the US military, by the way,
4:57
S2: movies give them a bad rap, but they are very
5:00
S2: educated philosopher soldiers for the most part at the upper ranks.
5:05
S2: They understand they're much better educated and briefed than Trump
5:09
S2: could ever dream of being. Dan Cain would know absolutely
5:13
S2: that he. If if ordered to carry out this threat
5:16
S2: would be breaching international law and every restraint on civilized
5:21
S2: human behavior. What does he do in response to that?
5:25
S2: What do the other upper echelons of the Pentagon do?
5:28
S2: What does Trump's cabinet do? What do the other members
5:32
S2: of the Republican Party in the Congress and the Senate
5:35
S2: and more broadly in in the in the party? What
5:38
S2: do they do? This is a test. And of course, well,
5:41
S2: the Democrats. But the entire population. What does this country
5:45
S2: do with this leader having exposed himself in this way.
5:52
S2: So Trump has failed the test? Yeah, but what about America?
5:56
S1: I was listening to, uh, well, many American commentators this
5:59
S1: morning just to just see them grapple in real time. Uh,
6:03
S1: they seem to be almost lost for words, but one
6:05
S1: of them, uh, pointed out that, of course, what Trump
6:08
S1: has posted on social media really matches the Pentagon's definition
6:13
S1: of terrorism, you know, threatening to annihilate a civilization. But
6:18
S1: then we've got to talk about what then happened, because,
6:20
S1: of course, an hour or so before Trump's stated deadline,
6:24
S1: when he said that he would destroy Iranian civilization if
6:27
S1: Tehran didn't open the Straits of Hormuz. He, of course,
6:29
S1: announced that the two countries had reached a ceasefire. So
6:32
S1: tell us what the two countries have agreed to. And
6:35
S1: I guess, how are Iran and the United States framing this? Like,
6:38
S1: are they both framing this as a victory? What's going
6:41
S1: on here, Peter?
6:43
S2: So, as you know, Trump had been practically begging the
6:46
S2: Iranians to agree to a ceasefire or a negotiation for
6:51
S2: a couple of weeks now. And the Iranians, to his
6:54
S2: shock and surprise, have defied his requests and said no.
6:58
S2: He handed over a door through intermediaries, the US handed
7:03
S2: over a 15 point proposal to follow a ceasefire to
7:07
S2: implement a peace accord. The Iranians had rejected that. But today,
7:15
S2: under pressure of these threats, but also because of the.
7:18
S2: They were able to use the intermediary of the Pakistanis
7:22
S2: as a pretext, if you like, for reconsidering the American
7:28
S2: offer and embracing the Pakistanis as, um a brotherly a
7:32
S2: brotherly approach, said the Iranians. The Iranians agreed to respond
7:37
S2: to the Trump not to accept the Trump 15 point plan,
7:40
S2: but to respond with a ten point plan of their own,
7:42
S2: which we have yet to see in full text, and
7:45
S2: that Trump Seized on that immediately because it was the
7:49
S2: first actual concession they had made to his pleadings for
7:54
S2: a settlement, ceasefire, negotiation of any form. Trump has lunged
7:59
S2: for it, seized on it like a dying man, lunging
8:02
S2: for a life preserver in the ocean. And as a
8:05
S2: result of that, the two sides will sit down for
8:08
S2: their scheduled to sit down for their first actual face
8:10
S2: to face negotiation on Friday to talk this through. And
8:14
S2: the Iranians, as part of that, have agreed to allow
8:17
S2: shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. They have not given
8:21
S2: any unconditional. Guarantee. They have said that in their wording,
8:27
S2: the passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible,
8:32
S2: provided there is coordination with the Iranian armed forces and
8:37
S2: subject to technical limitations. Now any lawyer. I'm not a lawyer,
8:42
S2: but doesn't take a lawyer to tell you that those
8:44
S2: two conditions that they've set are pretty big conditions that
8:49
S2: could be quite restrictive, depending on how Tehran decides to
8:52
S2: implement them.
8:53
S1: And we've also seen reports that Israel has agreed to
8:56
S1: the ceasefire. I'm not sure if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
8:59
S1: Netanyahu has commented on that yet. So what do we
9:02
S1: know about that at this time, Peter?
9:04
S2: Well, all we know is that the Iranian stipulated that
9:07
S2: the Israelis should also cease their war against Lebanon. Hezbollah
9:12
S2: forces in Lebanon and the US, on behalf of the
9:16
S2: Israelis has agreed to that. As you say, I'm sure
9:20
S2: we'll get some more specific clarification from the Israelis, but
9:24
S2: that seems to be a part of the deal from
9:26
S2: where we sit now.
9:27
S1: And so do you have any sense of whether this
9:29
S1: could lead to a longer ceasefire? This is, of course,
9:32
S1: assuming the big if that this two week ceasefire even holds,
9:35
S1: which we have absolutely no idea if it will. But
9:37
S1: let's just say for the sake of this conversation, it does.
9:41
S1: Could this lead to a longer ceasefire? Is this the
9:43
S1: off ramp that Donald Trump has, you know, been really wanting?
9:47
S1: It's fair to say.
9:48
S2: The way he's seized on it. Yeah. Desperately. Absolutely. Yeah.
9:52
S2: It's the off ramp that he's been looking for.
9:55
S1: But do you think this could lead to a longer ceasefire? Like,
9:57
S1: I know you're not a military strategist, Peter, but.
10:00
S2: But this isn't military. This is. Yeah, this is politics.
10:03
S1: Yes.
10:03
S2: This is a negotiation between two parties, uh, over whether
10:09
S2: whether they want to end a war. And if so, how?
10:14
S2: So anything is possible? Yeah, we don't know.
10:19
S1: After the break.
10:20
S2: He's gone from being a potential liberator now to the
10:23
S2: ultimate oppressor that cannot possibly win. The US under Trump,
10:28
S2: at least. Any friends or support in Iran.
10:42
S1: You and I spoke just before recording about the fact
10:44
S1: that former speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, among others,
10:48
S1: has called for Donald Trump's cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment.
10:52
S1: So can you walk us through briefly what this would
10:53
S1: mean before we then perhaps unpack whether this could do
10:56
S1: anything to end this war, even if it was invoked?
11:00
S2: Well, it's an amendment that's provided the terms under which
11:04
S2: a serving president can be replaced. And you'd expect a
11:09
S2: high bar. And so it is the vice president has
11:12
S2: to bring it. The majority of the cabinet has to
11:14
S2: agree to it. And so does the both houses of
11:16
S2: the Congress. Only then can a president be removed, presumably
11:20
S2: because he's insane or otherwise incapable of doing his job.
11:25
S2: So the consequence would be the vice president would be
11:27
S2: installed in his place. Now, I don't know whether this
11:31
S2: is just Trump craftiness or sheer chance, but this would
11:35
S2: mean if this were invoked, that JD Vance would step in. Now,
11:39
S2: JD Vance happens to have been the guy put in
11:43
S2: charge of the. What. Trump's been calling negotiations, but really
11:46
S2: our communications are with their intermediaries in the dealings with Iran.
11:52
S2: So it would be very difficult now for JD Vance
11:57
S2: to say, well, Trump did that, but I didn't. He's
12:00
S2: now inextricably involved in that. So Trump has compromised him
12:03
S2: and his ability to claim that he's not involved. Should
12:08
S2: this go horribly wrong? And the other thing is, um,
12:12
S2: he's he's got him. He sent him out of the country, uh,
12:16
S2: happens to be in Hungary for the time being again,
12:18
S2: perhaps conveniently. Again, this may be a sheer chance, but
12:20
S2: it may also be a touch of craft. I mean,
12:23
S2: Trump is an execrable human being, but he's not completely stupid.
12:29
S1: And so you've mentioned before, uh, you know, there's this
12:33
S1: two week ceasefire. We don't exactly know how it will
12:35
S1: come about. You know, whether those loopholes will be seized
12:38
S1: on by the Iranians, and this won't be a full
12:40
S1: opening of the Straits of Hormuz. Obviously, we're still yet
12:43
S1: to find out, but I wanted to ask you about
12:46
S1: what one Iranian expert told our mastheads. He's at the
12:50
S1: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and he said that Trump's
12:55
S1: threats to destroy Iranian civilization were a gift to the
12:58
S1: Iranian regime. He said they will alienate even its fiercest opponents,
13:02
S1: who believe the Islamic Republic has spent decades erasing 2500
13:06
S1: years of Iranian civilization. It's malpractice for the US president
13:10
S1: to threaten the same. So obviously we don't know how
13:12
S1: this war is going to proceed, but I guess. Tell
13:14
S1: me whether you agree with that. Like, what impact could
13:17
S1: that have on the global order in terms of how
13:20
S1: this will impact, I guess, Iran's place in the world
13:23
S1: and the way it's viewed?
13:25
S2: I think this whole episode, which Donald Trump seems to
13:30
S2: think is demonstrating his great power is actually exposed. the
13:36
S2: US's impotence that after five weeks of of war, which
13:42
S2: he's talked up as obliteration and all of the hyperbole
13:47
S2: has not been able to achieve some of the enunciated,
13:51
S2: supposedly core aims of this war and has failed to
13:57
S2: establish control over the Strait of Hormuz or the global
13:59
S2: oil price. This has demonstrated a lack of strategy, a
14:05
S2: lack of competence, and a failure politically and militarily to
14:09
S2: subdue an enemy. The Iranians have been frantically firing off
14:14
S2: missiles and drones every day, including the last 24 hours.
14:21
S2: They're nowhere near capitulation. They were happy to to to
14:24
S2: keep going. And so that's the first point I'd make.
14:27
S2: The second point I'd make is in January, when there
14:30
S2: was an uprising on the streets of Tehran, of all
14:33
S2: the major cities of Iran against the regime, which was
14:37
S2: essentially an economic uprising at the collapse of the currency.
14:42
S2: Outbursts of inflation officially measured at 50%, but unofficially much
14:46
S2: more than that. When those people took to the streets,
14:51
S2: Donald Trump encouraged them. Help is on its way, he said.
14:55
S2: And I only want freedom for the Iranian people, he said.
14:59
S2: And there's some evidence that the Iranian protest opposition movement
15:04
S2: really welcomed this intervention by Trump. Now compare that to
15:09
S2: the last 24 hours, Samantha, where you've got the US
15:13
S2: threatening to wipe out the entire country and all its
15:16
S2: civilian infrastructure if the US carries out its threat to
15:19
S2: wipe out the power plants of Iran and destroy its
15:23
S2: electricity grid. It does all the obvious things, disables the
15:26
S2: whole economy. Hospitals can't function. All of the rest of it.
15:31
S2: But it also disables the pumps, the pumping system that
15:35
S2: irrigates the crops of Iran without which they can't grow food.
15:39
S2: If you're an Iranian person, ordinary Iranian, are you going
15:44
S2: to applaud the man threatening to wipe out your country,
15:47
S2: your family, your culture? I don't think so. So if
15:52
S2: there were and there is evidence that there was some
15:56
S2: sympathy and enthusiasm among the Iranian opposition for Trump because
16:01
S2: he promised to remove a regime, a horrible regime that
16:04
S2: they hate, and went on, of course, in January to
16:06
S2: murder something like, depending on the source, something up to
16:09
S2: 30,000 Iranian unarmed civilians were murdered by the regime for
16:13
S2: daring to protest. So he's gone from being a potential
16:18
S2: liberator now to the ultimate oppressor that cannot possibly win.
16:22
S2: The US under Trump, at least any friends or support
16:26
S2: in Iran.
16:28
S1: Well, Peter, I guess just to wrap up, I mean,
16:30
S1: when we recorded just last week, you said that we'd
16:33
S1: already passed the threshold for the sun going down on
16:36
S1: the American Empire. You know, given, of course, that its
16:38
S1: singular strength, as you've pointed out, derived from its incredibly
16:42
S1: strong alliances. So if we had reached that threshold by
16:45
S1: last week, where are we now? You know, because, I mean,
16:49
S1: you and I have been recording on incredibly dire matters
16:52
S1: for nearly three years now. This would have to be
16:55
S1: one of the more gobsmacking moments that we have witnessed
16:58
S1: in terms of threats like this and what's happening on
17:01
S1: the world stage, right?
17:03
S2: Yes it is. I mean, uh, it's the abrogation of,
17:08
S2: of any position of responsible leadership by Trump. It doesn't
17:11
S2: mean all the allies immediately are going to denounce Trump
17:15
S2: or withdraw from their alliances, even if they wanted to.
17:20
S2: Many of us, including Australia, are so tightly and deeply
17:23
S2: embedded in US systems that we cannot simply walk away
17:29
S2: out of moral outrage, emotionally satisfying though it would be,
17:33
S2: it's not possible if you wish to continue basic elements
17:38
S2: of running a state, such as intelligent systems, a functioning military.
17:44
S2: Almost all of the Australian military and other. Some other allies.
17:48
S2: Military depends on US coordination, combat systems, hardware and software
17:54
S2: that needs updating. Our entire. All our squadrons of F-35
17:59
S2: fighter jets. One missed software update and they don't fly.
18:03
S2: So it's not an option for countries to just walk away.
18:06
S2: But in any moral, principled sense, in any sense of
18:11
S2: the US empire being an empire by virtue of the
18:14
S2: fact that countries wanted to be part of it. So
18:17
S2: the US didn't need to impose its will in the
18:19
S2: traditional imperial way through armies of occupation and economic coercion.
18:24
S2: It was a very cheap way of running an empire
18:27
S2: because the 40 or so countries that were treaty allies
18:31
S2: of the US wanted to be part, were willing participants
18:36
S2: cooperating with the US and abiding by a US system
18:40
S2: of international laws. All of that is gone. It depended
18:44
S2: on trust, and it depended on sufficient virtue that countries,
18:49
S2: not just governments, but their populations, could justify being a
18:53
S2: willing part of this system. That's gone. The trust is gone.
18:57
S1: Has these statements by Donald Trump, have they actually made
19:01
S1: the world worse just in themselves? Because I noted that
19:04
S1: American historian Timothy Snyder wrote in The Wall Street Journal that,
19:08
S1: you know, whatever happens tonight, you know, he's changed the
19:11
S1: world for worse, and he's actually made acts of mass
19:13
S1: violence more likely. Do you agree?
19:17
S2: I don't think necessarily more likely. I do think that
19:21
S2: any claim to American exceptionalism is, if it wasn't already,
19:24
S2: is now well and truly did. This just makes the
19:27
S2: US another predator. There were two great predators that US
19:32
S2: power had managed to contain in recent decades, and they
19:37
S2: are Putin's Russia and XI Jinping's China. What Trump does
19:41
S2: now is on a moral and political and practical level.
19:46
S2: He leaves behind any American exceptionalism and places himself on
19:50
S2: the same level as murderous dictators who are prepared to
19:55
S2: conduct genocide. So, for example, in the case of Vladimir Putin,
19:59
S2: the genocide of the Ukrainian people, in the case of
20:03
S2: XI Jinping, the Uyghur people, the Tibetan people would argue
20:07
S2: the same, that they've been the subject of genocidal policies
20:10
S2: from from, from Beijing. Trump has now put himself in
20:14
S2: the same moral, political and practical league, the US, because
20:20
S2: it still has. It doesn't have the same advantage in
20:24
S2: sheer military firepower terms that it used to have, but
20:28
S2: it still has a big advantage over Russia and over China.
20:31
S2: And that could well yet restrain Russia and China from
20:35
S2: egregious acts of direct military kinetic war. They wage asymmetric
20:41
S2: war instead, wherever they can, against anyone they can, any
20:46
S2: of any of their rivals. So the physical dominance of
20:50
S2: American military may yet restrain those other dictators. But the
20:54
S2: moment that China, for example, can catch up and overmatch
20:59
S2: US capability, or that Russia decides it together with China,
21:02
S2: it can do it. There's no difference between them. They're
21:05
S2: just three predators stalking the planet now.
21:07
S1: Wow. Well, thanks, Peter, as always, for your time.
21:10
S2: It's quite a day and it's a shocking day, but
21:13
S2: it's still good to be able to ventilate these things
21:16
S2: and talk them over with you.
21:17
S1: It sure is. Thanks, Peter.
21:18
S2: Thanks, Samantha.
21:23
S1: In other news today, the war would deliver a bigger
21:26
S1: economic hit than a natural disaster or a government debt crisis.
21:30
S1: According to new international research, highly decorated soldier Ben Roberts-Smith
21:36
S1: will remain in custody after his lawyers declined to push
21:39
S1: for his release on bail before a court on Wednesday.
21:42
S1: And regional cities have become the affordable future of housing
21:46
S1: in Australia, according to new research. To find out which
21:49
S1: regional hubs topped the list, visit SMH or theage.com.au. Today's
21:56
S1: episode was produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is
21:59
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22:03
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