Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Forget $101,000, This Is When You Should BUY ... | EP 1370

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Forget $101,000, This Is When You Should BUY ... | EP 1370 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Is crashing to its lowest level since June, wiping out one year
• 0:05
  of gains and everyone is now wondering, is the four year
• 0:10
  Bitcoin cycle officially broken or is this the four year cycle
• 0:13
  playing out exactly as everyone thought it was?
• 0:16
  So is the reason why the four year cycle is changing?
• 0:20
  Or rather is it changing because now we do have a new investor,
• 0:23
  but is it because of the biggest banks and institutions entering
• 0:27
  the space? We all know that this was the
• 0:29
  year. So before we show you why I
• 0:31
  think this cycle is different, let's hear from the CEO of the
• 0:35
  $800 billion giant Standard Charter, who has an interesting
• 0:39
  framework for what we should expect.
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  We'll be right back in a second. My, I guess my stronger
• 0:45
  conviction now is my medium term view, which is that by the end
• 0:49
  of 2028, so by the time Trump leaves office, we'll get to,
• 0:53
  we'll get to 500,000 Bitcoin. And that for me is it's really
• 0:57
  just a flow story. It's the ETF inflows and then if
• 1:02
  you compare Bitcoin and gold in a 2 portfolio, 2 asset portfolio
• 1:08
  mix at the start of this year. So this is where my 200 K number
• 1:12
  came from at the start of this year.
• 1:14
  Your if you look historically, it returns in correlations and
• 1:18
  volatility. You should have been roughly 80%
• 1:21
  gold, 20% Bitcoin in portfolios globally.
• 1:25
  But the reality of the market cap is about 9010.
• 1:28
  So I thought, well, actually that should mean instead of 100K
• 1:32
  you get to 200 K and that's just on historical volatility.
• 1:36
  And since then Vol of Bitcoin has collapsed this year.
• 1:39
  So actually like in a portfolio sense, global investors are even
• 1:42
  more underweight Bitcoin than they were at the start of the
• 1:46
  year when you volve just so over time, I think you like
• 1:50
  portfolios do normalize to where they should go.
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  It just takes some time and the theory here is that before the
• 1:56
  ETF started last year, investor access was limited globally
• 2:01
  especially and in the US quite dramatically.
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  And over time that improves. So therefore over time,
• 2:06
  portfolios should go towards where that optimal mix says they
• 2:10
  should be. And by 2028, even if Vol stays
• 2:14
  where it is now, you can make a case particularly what given
• 2:17
  what gold has done this year, that you can get to 500 K.
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  So that's my very strong conviction.
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  End of this year perhaps got a bit messy now cause of all this
• 2:25
  China U.S. trade stuff. Well, 500K by 2028 sounds like
• 2:30
  that's a place where people should be.
• 2:33
  So I mean, are we coping here is the real question.
• 2:36
  Of course I'm not, I'm not alone.
• 2:38
  I got Nico sitting next to me. And and also one of our favorite
• 2:42
  guests, we have Kent Halliburton from SAS Mining.
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  So guys, let's let's start here because I think what is
• 2:49
  interesting is one of the things that Jeff Kendrick said of
• 2:54
  Standard Charter is obviously the year started slow.
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  Of course, actually the whole year has been pretty slow if
• 3:02
  we're being honest about it. But now that the ETFs, the
• 3:05
  institutions are here, they have been slowly allocating into
• 3:08
  Bitcoin. But I think what's most
• 3:09
  interesting about that initial clip, and I will break down
• 3:13
  what's going on with the price currently or what I think is
• 3:15
  going on with the price right now.
• 3:17
  But he did mention there needs to be a way for these
• 3:22
  institutions to get into Bitcoin.
• 3:24
  And now that we have it, they're slowly getting into Bitcoin.
• 3:27
  And obviously this year, I, I think we could say it was a wash
• 3:30
  at this point. Like literally, guys, we are
• 3:32
  back to prices that we started the year off at.
• 3:35
  It's literally back to January 2025 prices right now.
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  We haven't been here since June. So in the span of the whole
• 3:42
  year, we went, you know, we went up and down and now we're back
• 3:48
  to January prices. It's just been a complete wash.
• 3:51
  When you kind of look at where we are, it's been a stable coin
• 3:54
  at this point. But I do think he has a point
• 3:57
  when he's talking about that. There's going to be a lot of
• 4:01
  liquidity being printed. And I am going to bring up some
• 4:03
  receipts here. But before I move on, Nico, I do
• 4:07
  want to get your opinion 'cause you do have to run here for a
• 4:10
  second. Let's talk about what what you
• 4:15
  were telling me this morning. And it's something we've been
• 4:17
  talking about on this show, this idea of what is actually
• 4:21
  happening right now. It seems like we're getting
• 4:23
  shaken out. It seems like they're trying to
• 4:26
  kind of destroy our conviction in this Bitcoin thing and kind
• 4:30
  of explaining in, in simple terms, in 42 IQ terms, what you
• 4:34
  think the Wall Street is doing right now.
• 4:37
  Yeah, Yeah, I think that's an excellent question.
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  So I, I've been talking to a lot of smart people, right?
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  A lot of smarter people than than me and me or Opti.
• 4:45
  And you know, the the general just question that I have to add
• 4:49
  this year is like, look like, what the Hell's going on, right?
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  This is the year after the halving.
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  We're supposed to have a parabola.
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  I don't understand. And I, I've been connecting the
• 4:58
  dots with the different people, the different conversations that
• 5:01
  I've been having with people. And I remember what British
• 5:04
  Hoddle was talking about. And remember, British Hoddle
• 5:06
  comes from the Tradfi world. He doesn't come from the Bitcoin
• 5:10
  world. And he like openly admits it.
• 5:11
  He's, he has no shame in it. And then I've been talking to
• 5:14
  other people again, people that worked in Fortune 500 companies.
• 5:17
  And again, they're, they're looking at me.
• 5:18
  They're like Nico this entire year.
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  You have to understand they're trying to shake you out of your
• 5:25
  position. That's what it's about.
• 5:27
  They're trying to scare you. They're trying to shake you out.
• 5:30
  And then one of the most interesting things that was
• 5:32
  brought up to me, it's like, look like Nico, you don't think
• 5:35
  that, you know, when Trump is about to send out one of these
• 5:38
  Truth Social posts, he's not telling Howard Leupnick or Baron
• 5:42
  Trump and they're not benefiting it from from from it
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  financially. I mean, that's not a stretch to
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  say. I mean, I remember the, the, you
• 5:52
  know, the Trump coin launches, you know, the day of the
• 5:54
  inauguration Day and that just caused the price to dump.
• 5:57
  So again, it with this insider knowledge and institutions
• 6:01
  coming into Wall Street, I mean, coming into Bitcoin, you know,
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  they're, they're doing what institutions do best.
• 6:08
  They're trying to shake you out of your positions.
• 6:10
  So as a hodler, as a retail, you know, investor in Bitcoin,
• 6:15
  you're #1 goal this cycle should be to survive with as much
• 6:22
  Bitcoin as you can, meaning you should have more Bitcoin than
• 6:25
  the day before. If you don't have more Bitcoin
• 6:27
  than the day before, I think you're doing it wrong.
• 6:30
  And I think this year was supposed to exhaust you.
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  This year was supposed to shake your conviction.
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  This year was supposed to tire you out.
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  This year was supposed to make you believe.
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  I remember I had this conversation this morning that,
• 6:43
  hey, Bitcoin reached its cap. It's not going up anymore.
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  It's over, it's done. And you see a lot of the whales,
• 6:51
  a lot of the whales, they're selling, OK?
• 6:53
  You have to upgrade your lifestyle.
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  I get it. I, I saw a post the other day of
• 6:57
  a whale who bought, you know, I think it was like 10,000 Bitcoin
• 7:00
  for like $1.34 cents, right? Something like something super
• 7:04
  low or something like that. It was like the very early days.
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  And he sold it for a billion dollars.
• 7:09
  And I remember this person was talking to me in the morning.
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  He was like, Nico, they're selling it.
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  Yeah, they made a fortune, but they're also giving up a lot of
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  upside because I was telling him I was like, look, the price is
• 7:20
  dumping. Like this is really depressing.
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  He's like, Nico, you don't understand.
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  The last time Bitcoin fell under 100K, how long did it stay
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  there? It was like, he's like, how long
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  did it stay there? I was like, it was like a week
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  or two, like literally like it dropped below 100K, stay there
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  for like a week or two and then went back up.
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  And then the last thing he told me and I'll pass it back on top
• 7:42
  to you, he was like, look like there's an institutional
• 7:44
  backdrop now, right? There are buyers of last resort.
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  The fact that there was 400,000 bitcoins sold in the month of
• 7:53
  October and we're still above above 100K.
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  Is. Extremely bullish and what
• 8:00
  eventually that distribution exhaust itself like those
• 8:03
  sellers exhaust, right? And with the amount of of buying
• 8:09
  that's happening on the institutional level, what do you
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  think happens to the price? And the last thing I'll say, and
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  I think this is the most astute thing that this person told me,
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  right? Which was like Nico, the world
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  still hasn't come to terms with the fact that Bitcoin is
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  absolutely scarce. They haven't come to terms with
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  that. They haven't come to that
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  realization. The moment the world comes to
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  that realization, you're going to see Bitcoin skyrocket, the
• 8:37
  likes of which has never happened before.
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  Right. And he said it with such
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  confidence and conviction and and just it came from a place of
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  knowledge and experience, right. And I think that's the key point
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  here, man, is that you're seeing gold making all time highs.
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  But what people have to remember about gold is that listen, if
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  the the price of gold double S, they're come, they're going to
• 9:00
  come out with the most sophisticated AI robot gold
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  miners that are going to go and extract more gold out of the
• 9:07
  ground. If the bite price of Bitcoin
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  double S from here, the amount of Bitcoin mined, not only does
• 9:15
  it stay the same, but actually every four years it gets cut in
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  half and that's the part he was telling me he's like the moment
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  the the world realizes that Bitcoin is absolutely scarce,
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  you're going to have an explosion to the upside.
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  So anyways, I'm just trying to tell you guys this as we're
• 9:32
  falling. It seems like the Sky's falling.
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  The sentiment on Bitcoin XI don't think has been this bad in
• 9:39
  a really long time. And I'm telling you, they're
• 9:42
  trying to shake you out of your bags like this is what Wall
• 9:47
  Street does. This is what institutions do.
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  Don't sell your Bitcoin to them because that's who you're
• 9:53
  selling it to. You're selling it to Wall
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  Street. 100% and Nico, I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna kick you off
• 9:58
  stream now so you can go do what you need to do and Kent and I
• 10:02
  will take it from here. So Nico, say goodbye to
• 10:05
  everyone. Take it easy, everybody.
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  Let's go. OK, so Kent, I, I am going to
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  connect a bunch of these dots here, but I do want to get your,
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  your opinion on where we are right now.
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  Do you think the analysis that Jeff Kendrick said from Standard
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  Charter makes sense and add that with what Nico sent?
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  Let's do a short little take on that.
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  Is this where your vibes are right now?
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  I know we talked about this earlier in the show or actually
• 10:30
  before we went live. This is kind of the idea that
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  everyone that's been around for a while is, is asking
• 10:36
  themselves. It's like, it does feel like, I
• 10:39
  don't want to say this is the final shakeout because we've
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  been wrong all of all year, but this does feel, at least on a
• 10:45
  gut level, what is happening well.
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  I want to steal man the argument for a second because as I'm
• 10:53
  sitting here listening to you guys, you know what Nico said.
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  Spot on. You know, nothing to disagree
• 11:00
  with there. What I will say though, is think
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  about this. We are experiencing state level
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  adoption. We are experiencing
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  institutional adoption. What would we expect other than
• 11:14
  Statecraft and Wall Street shenanigans in the price action,
• 11:18
  right? Isn't that just what's going to
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  happen? So these, these, these fun and
• 11:23
  games like this is what we had to go through.
• 11:26
  Like this is like, we didn't expect it, of course, but like,
• 11:30
  how could we have expected any differently?
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  I think we were just naive. So I, I think this lulling to
• 11:36
  sleep is exactly what's going on right now.
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  And I don't know if this is the last dip before the shakeout,
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  but I do know if you're selling here that you are selling to
• 11:47
  somebody else that is planning to hold for a very long time.
• 11:50
  These institutions have grocked Bitcoin and they are coming in
• 11:54
  and swooping it up. Like if you look, there was a
• 11:56
  recent piece about how Bitcoin is performing like an IPO right
• 12:00
  now. I can't remember the the author
• 12:02
  you guys have probably already. Refereed.
• 12:04
  It was a Geordie Vizer. Geordie Vizer I believe.
• 12:07
  In the last couple of days that really resonated with me because
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  you have early buyers that are coming in and they've held for a
• 12:14
  long time and just in an IPO, they didn't have any liquidity.
• 12:18
  Now they're at a point where cool, I can really transform my
• 12:21
  life. I get it guys.
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  Yes, you're giving up a lot of upside.
• 12:24
  But guess what, time is finite, right?
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  Like you want to live your life like we are not saving money to
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  just save money. We are saving money to have life
• 12:34
  experiences to, to help our bloodlines.
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  That's right. So it makes sense to me that
• 12:39
  this is occurring. And it also makes sense to me
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  that we're seeing this patient bid.
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  Like that's the thing that's not talked about enough is the fact
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  that there's this bid that's underneath the market that is
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  just patient and just picking up Bitcoin at a good value, good
• 12:55
  value. So I expect here that we see,
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  OK, maybe we come down 98K or something like that.
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  But I don't think that we will live under 100K for as long as
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  we did earlier this year. I think that we're going to and
• 13:07
  get and get pumped right back up.
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  There'll be a spring action and off off to the race as we go.
• 13:11
  So do I think sailors right that we end the year over 150 K?
• 13:15
  Sounds about right. Am I going to bet my life on it?
• 13:17
  Absolutely not. These institutional players in
• 13:21
  Wall Street are much smarter and more sophisticated at this
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  boring people to sleep in and getting them to to to puke out
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  their Bitcoin than I am. So what I know is that this is
• 13:31
  the absolute most scarce asset on the planet and don't let it
• 13:37
  out of your paws unless you're selling it for a life experience
• 13:41
  or event. Otherwise man, just hold.
• 13:43
  You're going to be fine. Great advice that that's
• 13:46
  literally like the the Bitcoin wisdom of the last 1617 years.
• 13:50
  There's really no reason to sell your Bitcoin unless you're
• 13:53
  trying to, like you said, can't, you know, update your life a
• 13:57
  little bit, maybe some life experiences.
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  If you've been around for a long time, you know, you have a young
• 14:01
  family. You gotta enjoy your money a
• 14:03
  little bit. It's money after all.
• 14:05
  ANYWAYS, I do want you guys. So I'm gonna play one more clip
• 14:08
  here. This one is a little more
• 14:10
  bullish than the last one. This is coming from Arthur
• 14:13
  Hayes. But I want you to keep in mind
• 14:15
  the idea that Jeff Kendrick said around liquidity and then listen
• 14:20
  to what Arthur Hayes is saying. And then I'm gonna bring some
• 14:22
  receipts of some interesting stuff we saw happen basically
• 14:25
  overnight. So one more clip and then I will
• 14:28
  break this all down. Japan, the new Prime Minister.
• 14:32
  I can't pronounce her name correctly, so I'm not going to
• 14:35
  try. They, she is talking about
• 14:38
  printing money to help households pay for goods and
• 14:41
  services because of the high inflation that was caused by the
• 14:44
  printed money of the previous administration, who she loves
• 14:46
  economics. So they're pretty money in
• 14:48
  Japan. And then the ECB is gonna have
• 14:49
  to print more money to save the euro.
• 14:51
  So again, all around the world, the politicians are going to
• 14:53
  print more money. And so I see it as a completely
• 14:55
  different scenario than let's even talk about 2021 when Jerome
• 14:59
  Paul was talking about tightening credit, when every
• 15:01
  central bank was tightening credit because of inflation.
• 15:04
  We're in a scenario where the politicians around the world,
• 15:07
  regardless of where you live, are talking about spending more
• 15:09
  money without raising taxes. And so that's why I believe that
• 15:13
  this particular cycle will extend.
• 15:14
  I think it's going to extend the 2 thousand 2728 time period.
• 15:18
  But again, who knows how long it will go for.
• 15:21
  But as long as the politicians are going to print money to hand
• 15:23
  out goodies to people to support them, we're going to keep going
• 15:26
  higher as a crypto ecosystem. It's so very interesting.
• 15:29
  They said not only the same timeline 2028, but basically the
• 15:34
  same phenomenon happening that they're going to inject a bunch
• 15:38
  of liquidity into the system. Now, if you don't follow Bitcoin
• 15:42
  Twitter as closely as I do, then you might have missed a couple
• 15:45
  of things that literally happened overnight.
• 15:47
  The actually the beginning of this week, it started on Sunday.
• 15:51
  So here, I'm going to start with here, but this is really where
• 15:54
  it starts to get interesting. So you're starting to see that
• 15:59
  the Fed is injecting liquidity into the repo markets.
• 16:02
  And James Lavish has a good breakdown right here.
• 16:05
  And we actually got more printing this morning.
• 16:07
  But it's not just happening in the US.
• 16:10
  It's also taking place in Europe as well.
• 16:13
  So we got James Lavish and he goes good morning.
• 16:15
  After eight months of increasing usage overnight borrowing, the
• 16:19
  need for dollars exploded on Friday to $50 billion, mostly in
• 16:23
  the afternoon session and not posted by the Fed but captured
• 16:26
  on Bloomberg. This need 'cause the secured
• 16:29
  overnight funding rate the borrowing rate to explode to 35
• 16:33
  bits above the Fed funds rate. While some increase activity is
• 16:37
  expected at month end, these are serious red flags that the
• 16:40
  financial system is on the verge of locking up unless the Fed
• 16:44
  adds liquidity soon. Have a great week.
• 16:47
  And that is the key take away at the end.
• 16:49
  Unless the Fed adds liquidity right now, it literally like in
• 16:53
  on a day by day basis. There is something concerning
• 16:57
  going on. And you guys know, I, I'm
• 16:58
  probably a boy who cried wolf at this point because I've been
• 17:02
  telling you guys this for the last couple of weeks that there,
• 17:05
  there is a lot of concerns. Also when you see the gold price
• 17:08
  start running, all of this is making you think, all right,
• 17:11
  they, they are panicking behind the scenes.
• 17:14
  And then to add, you know, a little more fire or a little
• 17:17
  more gas on this flame this morning, the Fed just pumped
• 17:21
  another 2.8 billion to a total of 100 billion since July.
• 17:25
  Why now I know 100 billion isn't as big as 100 or, you know, the
• 17:29
  trillions of dollars we have in debt, but they're, they're
• 17:32
  needing liquidity. And remember a few weeks ago we
• 17:35
  saw there is some kind of regional banking crisis going on
• 17:37
  because they don't have liquidity at the moment, which
• 17:40
  really kind of connects to on Main Street, very similar.
• 17:44
  People need dollars. Now.
• 17:45
  What is the Fed going to do? Well, they just announced or Jay
• 17:49
  Powell just announced they're going to end QT quantitative
• 17:52
  tightening. Now they haven't actually
• 17:54
  specifically said they're going to to restart QE, but you can
• 17:57
  look at this as a more stealth QE instead of, you know,
• 18:01
  helicopter money, they're just injecting dollars into the Feds
• 18:05
  balance sheet or rather into the sulfur markets in the reverse
• 18:09
  repo market so that banks have liquidity.
• 18:11
  So on a more, you know, layman's term, QE has already started and
• 18:17
  now we really know the reason why.
• 18:18
  But again, this isn't just happening in the Fed.
• 18:21
  And Tom Luongo, as as spicy as his verbiage is on Twitter to
• 18:26
  really explain that this isn't just happening in the US.
• 18:29
  This isn't just about the Fed. This is a global problem that
• 18:33
  we're seeing. And he goes, it's always the Fed
• 18:34
  did this and the Fed did that. And, and he does go a little on
• 18:37
  PG. So I'm, I'm not going to say
• 18:39
  everything he says here, but he goes.
• 18:40
  But did anyone notice the daily injections of 70 to 9090 billion
• 18:46
  British pound by the Bank of England last week?
• 18:48
  No, I wonder why the 30 billion or the 100 billion in the US
• 18:53
  banking system is a rounding error.
• 18:56
  The 90 billion of British pound into the British banking system
• 19:00
  is A5 alarm fire. And no one is covering this.
• 19:06
  Everyone focus on Jay Powell and the Fed, but no one is seeing
• 19:09
  that this is a global problem right now.
• 19:12
  And this is one of the things they've been kind of telling us
• 19:15
  about Bitcoin, that Bitcoin is now a, you know what, what,
• 19:19
  what's the framing? They use a like a strategic
• 19:22
  asset that there is contagion coming out of Bitcoin and it's
• 19:25
  going to be Bitcoin's fault for the traditional financial system
• 19:29
  to blow up. And all of us from Bitcoin know
• 19:31
  it's completely ludicrous. It's like, no, we have nothing
• 19:33
  to do with this. Bitcoin is the escape from all
• 19:36
  of this. This is the escape valve.
• 19:38
  And now we're seeing that they are injecting billions of
• 19:42
  dollars into the system because they have no more liquidity,
• 19:45
  which is really kind of showing you the the business cycle, the
• 19:49
  banking cycles. It is on a precarious edge right
• 19:52
  now. Hence why we're seeing all of
• 19:54
  the drama play out between Trump and Powell.
• 19:57
  And then, of course, we're seeing the drama from the US
• 20:00
  versus the EU. Why do you think that Christine
• 20:02
  Lagarde is out there so concerned and so worried about
• 20:06
  what the US is doing is because they're in trouble.
• 20:08
  That's why they're panicking. They're trying to push the CBDC
• 20:11
  as quickly as possible because then they could literally, you
• 20:14
  know? Add dollars into the system very
• 20:17
  quickly. They can shut you off from the
• 20:18
  system very quickly. So as you can see, the two clips
• 20:22
  I played for you were hinged on one single idea.
• 20:26
  There's going to be more liquidity that's going to get
• 20:28
  injected into the system. And then 2 the institutions now,
• 20:32
  again, started by Larry Fink, remember what he did?
• 20:36
  He basically said, hey guys, it's OK for you guys to get into
• 20:39
  Bitcoin. Now he's trying to get all of
• 20:41
  his clients into Bitcoin. Yes, it's starting slowly and
• 20:44
  yes, the price is getting very low, which I think is all
• 20:47
  connected because like if you have a lot of money, you don't
• 20:50
  want to buy a higher Bitcoin, you want to get a lower Bitcoin
• 20:53
  and then you let it RIP. So I think what we're seeing
• 20:56
  right now is all interconnected. Now, again, I might be kind of
• 20:59
  connected the dots and, and, you know, connecting the tea leaves
• 21:03
  and I'm looking like Charlie Day over here.
• 21:05
  But the thesis, I think that Jeff Kendrick and Arthur Hayes
• 21:08
  are saying, it's pretty sound that we're probably going to see
• 21:12
  the price of Bitcoin fundamentally change going into
• 21:16
  2028 because of all these liquidity concerns and because
• 21:19
  they're going to basically turn the money printer into
• 21:22
  OverDrive. And that's what I think is kind
• 21:25
  of what we're seeing right now. Of course, the price of
• 21:27
  Bitcoin's been literally flat all year long.
• 21:30
  Yes, we dip from January to July, we dip down and then from
• 21:35
  July to now we got a little pumped.
• 21:37
  But on the whole year year today, obviously if you go back
• 21:42
  a year, the price has gone up, you know, a significantly.
• 21:44
  But if you're looking at just a year today chart, we're
• 21:47
  basically at 0 right now. No action in the price of
• 21:50
  Bitcoin all year long. We're back to where we started
• 21:54
  and everyone is wondering what is going on.
• 21:56
  Is the four year cycle over? This is supposed to be the
• 21:59
  parabolic year and my thesis here actually before I go into
• 22:02
  my thesis, because I was making this case to Luke this morning
• 22:05
  and he's like, what? What is your case here?
• 22:07
  Because I said the same thing I tell you guys all the time.
• 22:10
  I think the market structure in Bitcoin has fundamentally
• 22:13
  changed since the ETF was launched.
• 22:15
  And I'll make my case in a minute of where I think the
• 22:17
  price is going and what is kind of holding things up.
• 22:20
  I am going to do a little chart bowling here, guys.
• 22:22
  So forgive me now, but Kent, am I seeing things here, or is this
• 22:30
  kind of playing out exactly as the thesis says?
• 22:33
  The liquidity cycle is going to enter into 2028, probably until
• 22:37
  Trump ends his presidency. It seems to be lining up
• 22:40
  perfectly. Well, I think you know, a lot of
• 22:45
  there's been a lot of dunking on Bitcoiners, right?
• 22:48
  Oh, you believe that bitcoin's price was tied to M2 and you see
• 22:51
  that they've obviously got a deviation and you believe that,
• 22:54
  you know, gold, it should be fallen gold and there's this
• 22:57
  deviation, right? And I just think that we're
• 23:00
  seeing that deviation for two reasons.
• 23:03
  One, we haven't seen the big print yet, You know, nod to
• 23:08
  Larry there, author of an amazing book called the big
• 23:10
  print. But they haven't, we haven't
• 23:13
  seen that big print yet. And it feels like we're on the,
• 23:16
  the razor edge of that happening.
• 23:18
  You know, the, it feels like the financial sector is held
• 23:22
  together at this point with bubble gum and baling wire,
• 23:25
  basically like they're inserting liquidity into the system with
• 23:28
  all these angles and, and they're trying to pretend it's
• 23:30
  not liquidity. You know, it's literally the
• 23:33
  emperor's walking down the, the road naked right now.
• 23:35
  And, and, and the Bitcoiners are the ones pointing it out being
• 23:38
  like, hey, dude, you're naked. And everybody else is like, no,
• 23:41
  he's closed. He's totally fine.
• 23:42
  And it's not, it's, this is just what was going to happen.
• 23:45
  And, and once that starts to breakthrough into mainstream
• 23:48
  consciousness, I, I do think that we see bitcoins price
• 23:51
  really start to run. And I do think Bitcoins price
• 23:54
  right now is being jawboned lower so that institutional
• 23:59
  players can take advantage of that price running.
• 24:01
  I don't think this is a conspiracy.
• 24:02
  This is just logical. If you know, the emperor's
• 24:04
  naked, that's walking down the road and that emperor is the Fed
• 24:08
  and the US debt based financial system and you're not getting
• 24:12
  the scarcest asset on the planet.
• 24:14
  Like I'm sorry, you're just not very intelligent, right?
• 24:17
  It's an institution and then institutions are very
• 24:20
  intelligent, right? So that is to me just an
• 24:22
  absolutely obvious thing that's going on, not a conspiracy.
• 24:26
  This is just what they've always done Wall Street in
• 24:28
  institutions. So kind of connecting everything
• 24:30
  together. Yes, the business cycle is going
• 24:33
  to continue because this is just how money dies, right?
• 24:36
  Politicians are never going to do the hard thing here because
• 24:39
  they have have to be voted into office.
• 24:41
  And the hard thing is you say, hey, we're going to stop the
• 24:43
  spending, we're going to get back to budget neutral, we're
• 24:46
  going to pay down the debt. That's not happening.
• 24:48
  They've got to be voted into office and voters are not going
• 24:51
  to allow that to happen. So what is going to happen is
• 24:54
  they're going to continue to print and try to inflate
• 24:56
  themselves out of this Mission Impossible situation that
• 25:01
  they're in. And Bitcoin's going to go along
• 25:03
  for the ride. So, you know, buckle up.
• 25:05
  Yeah, 100%. I, I think that is exactly
• 25:09
  what's playing out. And as, as that IPO kind of
• 25:11
  article showed us, I think we are all still working on old
• 25:16
  paradigms here. And I think we are fundamentally
• 25:19
  underestimating how big of a change the Bitcoin ETF actually
• 25:23
  had on our market and how big of a defining moment that was.
• 25:27
  And obviously we were all extremely bullish.
• 25:29
  Like the institutions are here, they're going to buy our bags,
• 25:30
  they're going to pump it. They want, you know, 10X games
• 25:33
  in Bitcoin and then you forget that Wall Street, they don't
• 25:37
  really change their playbook when they go into a new asset.
• 25:39
  They trade the same thing. They're using all the same
• 25:42
  mechanisms to essentially trade how they're used to.
• 25:45
  There's a huge market psychology to this.
• 25:48
  And, and this is what I think what we're seeing play out.
• 25:50
  Obviously, you know, greed is one of the defining indicators
• 25:54
  or one of the one of the incentives that we have to look
• 25:57
  at. And if you are looking, and I
• 26:00
  think I said this yesterday or maybe I should it off the show,
• 26:03
  I'm like, if you are looking at Bitcoin and you don't think that
• 26:07
  these institutions saw Bitcoin go up what, you know, million
• 26:11
  percent over the last 16 years and they're looking at Bitcoin
• 26:14
  and they're not like, I want these gains too, but I also want
• 26:18
  to get a semi decent price action here.
• 26:21
  I I think the billionaire playbook of flooding Bitcoin,
• 26:24
  buying your bag and then letting it RIP once you're ready.
• 26:27
  I think it's still playing out. And it's been a brutal year for
• 26:30
  all of us bitcoiners that have been in the market for so long
• 26:33
  that we're all kind of like, I'm tired, boss.
• 26:36
  We're trying to rack our brains on what exactly is happening
• 26:39
  right now. And, and this is what I, I keep
• 26:42
  telling you guys, you know, like as I come on the show, obviously
• 26:46
  I'm always trying to update my mental models here.
• 26:48
  And I think as we kind of have concluded in the last few weeks,
• 26:51
  everything we thought was going to happen is completely wrong.
• 26:54
  And you know, being someone that that does value, you know,
• 26:59
  telling you guys and, and coming on here and being like, I, you
• 27:02
  look, this is my honest take right now, trying to be as
• 27:04
  authentic as possible. I'm like, look, I was completely
• 27:08
  wrong. And so this is also one of the
• 27:10
  reasons why I've been going and searching into the macro worlds
• 27:13
  in the geopolitical world to try to help me explain and help you
• 27:17
  guys understand what is going on.
• 27:19
  Like first help me understand what's going on so I can explain
• 27:22
  it to you guys. And then hopefully you
• 27:23
  understand what I'm seeing. Of course, this is all biased.
• 27:26
  I, I don't know, I'm just trying to make sense out of all the
• 27:30
  noise we're seeing. And I think at the very least,
• 27:33
  we can all admit that we had no idea what was going to happen
• 27:36
  now. And to be honest, we really
• 27:38
  don't know what's going to happen in the future.
• 27:39
  But with that being said, I think we are seeing something
• 27:44
  and, and this is where I'm going to chart boy guys.
• 27:46
  So forgive me. I know, I know some people make
• 27:48
  fun of me cuz, cuz I, I do chart boy here on on simply every once
• 27:52
  in awhile to try to explain what's going on.
• 27:54
  So I'll explain what, what is going on in my chart and then we
• 27:58
  will chat about it. So here is of course, the, the
• 28:01
  total Bitcoin market. I do have the you know, a simple
• 28:04
  moving average cross with the 50 and the 200.
• 28:07
  I'm on the week chart here for a specific reason.
• 28:09
  And this line here, I believe it was yellow.
• 28:12
  This is the the month or the I don't I don't know if I picked
• 28:15
  the exact week I did it on the month, but this is marking when
• 28:19
  the ETF was launched. And so as I was explaining this
• 28:21
  morning to Luke, when I, when I keep telling you guys, I think
• 28:25
  the market structure has fundamentally changed since the
• 28:27
  institutions have got in. This is how I'll explain it very
• 28:30
  simply. Of course we were used to the
• 28:32
  pump and the dump kind of cycle, the bull markets and the bear
• 28:36
  markets. They were very predictable
• 28:38
  aligning to the four year cycle. You know, you'd get a pump and
• 28:41
  then it would dump and then you'd get around the having
• 28:44
  another pump and then it would dump.
• 28:46
  And you know, we were all used to this. 2017 might have been
• 28:49
  the last great bull run because in 2021 we all got this double
• 28:54
  top and we, and remember back then we were wondering what is
• 28:57
  going on. This is, this doesn't make sense
• 28:59
  with the two or three data points we had.
• 29:01
  It shouldn't be doing this and and yet it did.
• 29:04
  And now again, we have something fundamentally different playing
• 29:08
  out in my opinion. So let me turn this off so you
• 29:11
  guys can see this a little better.
• 29:13
  I'll turn this actually wrong one, So let me turn that one
• 29:16
  back on. So here is the ETF launch and
• 29:20
  from the bottom of January 2023, there seems to be this straight
• 29:25
  line kind of new trend that we're seeing.
• 29:28
  And as you can see, the price and I don't I don't move this
• 29:31
  trend line. This is old trend line.
• 29:32
  The price of Bitcoin is moving right back to that trend line.
• 29:35
  Now again, I'm not saying that my magic lines on the chart is
• 29:39
  what's attracting the price, but what is interesting about this
• 29:43
  is that it does align perfect perfectly with the 50 week
• 29:47
  moving average. And this is where I was telling
• 29:49
  Luke that the whole meme of a, you know, stairway to heaven,
• 29:53
  but basically a slow grind to 1,000,000 as as we frame it.
• 29:58
  Basically, you know, we're going to get bored to death here in
• 30:01
  Bitcoin. No more parabolic runs, but most
• 30:03
  likely no more devastating 80% bear markets.
• 30:07
  And the reason I'm bringing up this fifty week moving average,
• 30:10
  actually, we just kind of broke down a little bit on that.
• 30:12
  But you saw here in 2025 of April what did something similar
• 30:16
  So every time the Bitcoin prices pumped recently ever since the
• 30:19
  ETF launch, it essentially gets held up by this fifty week
• 30:23
  moving average again, I don't have very many data points cuz
• 30:26
  this is only going back to when the ETF was launched, but we saw
• 30:30
  this happen in September of 2024.
• 30:32
  We saw this happen in April 2025.
• 30:34
  Now we're seeing this happen right now, yes, the, the, the
• 30:37
  daily candle hasn't closed yet. So this could potentially be a
• 30:41
  Wick that looks similar to what we saw two previous times
• 30:44
  before. But and it does seem like every
• 30:46
  time we get back to the 50 week moving average ever since the
• 30:50
  ETF was launched, that is marking the bottom for the next
• 30:54
  leg up. And I was explaining it like
• 30:56
  this. Let me see, I'll do some, you
• 30:58
  know, simple. You know, you see, you see this
• 31:00
  kind of action playing out where it kind of steps up, it
• 31:05
  consolidated, it gets super boring, it goes sideways and
• 31:09
  then eventually we should be seeing something like this.
• 31:12
  So this is kind of what I'm think is actually playing out
• 31:16
  right now, considering that when you look at here actually, I
• 31:19
  mean, let me zoom in a little bit.
• 31:21
  You look at or rather you have the idea that the institutions
• 31:24
  here are trading based on their own mental models, what they're
• 31:27
  used to doing. And again, guys, when they see a
• 31:32
  market that has extreme volatility, either to the up or
• 31:34
  the downside, that makes them feel a little uncomfortable.
• 31:37
  Obviously if it's dumping, they don't want to buy it.
• 31:40
  But if it gets too high, what are they thinking?
• 31:41
  This is a bubble. They're not like big corners
• 31:43
  where we we love the bubble. We're like, yes, the parabolic
• 31:47
  run is back. So they see the price go too
• 31:49
  high. And this is where we've been
• 31:50
  complaining on the show. It's like we broke an all time
• 31:53
  high by like 1000 or $2000 and then it dumps again and
• 31:57
  consolidate and then we do it again, you know, 2K pump past
• 32:01
  all time high and then it dumps and consolidate.
• 32:03
  And this, I think this might be that stairway to heaven.
• 32:07
  A lot of people have been saying this.
• 32:09
  It's gonna pump, it's gonna consolidate, it's gonna pump,
• 32:11
  it's gonna consolidate, it's gonna pump, consolidate over and
• 32:14
  over and over again. And so if this fifty week moving
• 32:18
  average is holding up and this is kind of the new movement
• 32:22
  until everyone catches on to this new movement, I think this
• 32:26
  might be what's happening. So I'm kind of on the view right
• 32:29
  now if you guys want to get my take, again, not financial
• 32:33
  advice, etcetera, etcetera. But what I think is going to
• 32:36
  happen, I think this is the time to be buying.
• 32:39
  When you connect this idea with the institutions are trying to
• 32:42
  shake you out. We're back to the 50 week moving
• 32:44
  average. We've seen this play out before
• 32:46
  this whole time that we've been watching Bitcoin every time it
• 32:49
  does this, you know, 2030% correction to the 50 week moving
• 32:52
  average. Everyone on the timeline is it's
• 32:55
  over. And I'm feeling the same thing
• 32:58
  right now. Everyone's saying it's over.
• 33:00
  I don't think it's over. I think this new kind of thesis
• 33:03
  of liquidity cycle, I think it is, it is going to just keep
• 33:07
  humping into 202620272028I. I think that's what's happening
• 33:12
  guys. I think the market structure in
• 33:14
  Bitcoin has fundamentally changed for better or worse for
• 33:17
  for better. No huge drawdowns for worse, no
• 33:21
  huge parabolic runs. But it is a slow methodical
• 33:25
  grind up. As Bitcoin matures, as that IPO
• 33:29
  article kind of explained to us, it is maturing.
• 33:31
  This is that fundamental year where Bitcoin changed from a
• 33:35
  speculative asset to a mature asset or something that needs to
• 33:39
  be in your portfolio. And I so all this stuff is, is
• 33:43
  kind of what I'm thinking right now.
• 33:44
  It seems to be aligning. I think all the dots are
• 33:47
  connecting to again, I could be reading into it, I could be
• 33:50
  coping, I could be feeding myself opium on the show.
• 33:54
  But I this is kind of what I'm seeing guys.
• 33:57
  So you guys can tear me a new one in the chat.
• 33:59
  But Kent, what do you think on this?
• 34:01
  Do you think this holds any water?
• 34:05
  I love charts with lines and things on them, so they make me
• 34:09
  happy too. No, I, I, I think the more
• 34:11
  fundamental thing though, is, you know, at the end of the day,
• 34:16
  at the moments. So my experience is, you know, I
• 34:19
  got my first Bitcoin middle, well, started watching at middle
• 34:23
  of 2015, got my first Bitcoin the end of 2015.
• 34:27
  And after watching this asset for a decade, I've come to
• 34:31
  realize the points in time where I start to like get a sinking
• 34:36
  feeling in my stomach is the exact moments when I should be
• 34:38
  buying. And I've been starting to get
• 34:40
  that lately. So for whatever it's worth, you
• 34:42
  know, that feeling that it's all over, if you're around Bitcoin
• 34:46
  long enough, you'll find the crowd is always wrong.
• 34:49
  They just are. And usually when the crowd is
• 34:52
  wrong is you want to you want to zig while they're zagging.
• 34:55
  So it just, it feels like it's one of those moments to me as
• 34:58
  well. I look at your chart and I see
• 35:00
  several things going on there at once.
• 35:02
  You know that that magic line you drew?
• 35:05
  Yeah, we're touching that again. And the other moving average,
• 35:09
  we're touching that again. I think one of my favorite
• 35:11
  things when I look at a chart is to take everything away and just
• 35:14
  look at the 200 week moving average, which last time I
• 35:17
  looked at it was going up like several.
• 35:19
  I can pull that up. I got it here.
• 35:21
  It's actually my blue line. It's actually here.
• 35:23
  Let me just take everything. Let me.
• 35:26
  See, and this is the blue line here.
• 35:29
  So I have the MA cross fifty week and the 200 week moving
• 35:32
  average. So the current 200 week moving
• 35:35
  average is at 55,000. Yeah, just zoom out for a SEC
• 35:40
  because this is my favorite thing to look at.
• 35:42
  So 5050 weeks or or excuse me, 200 week moving average is
• 35:48
  roughly 4 years. Oh yeah, yeah, right.
• 35:49
  So 52 weeks in a year. So you're basically looking at
• 35:52
  the four year cycle when you look at that.
• 35:54
  And what you see with it is it's never once gone down.
• 35:58
  It always goes up. So as long as you in your in, in
• 36:01
  my key brain, as long as I can think in a four year cycle, I
• 36:07
  know that there's not one time in Bitcoin's history where that
• 36:11
  has been proven to be a bad bet. So just think longer than the
• 36:16
  average Joe and you're going to be fine with your Bitcoin
• 36:19
  position. Now, by all means, if you need
• 36:22
  the the value of your Bitcoin to be unlocked in less than four
• 36:25
  years like you're, you might not want to invest in Bitcoin.
• 36:29
  But as long as you can think in four years, which is the time it
• 36:32
  takes most people to acquire a a degree like you're cool.
• 36:38
  Just just chill. Yeah, no, I'm I'm just laughing
• 36:41
  because someone in the chat's like yell Opti pull up the one
• 36:44
  minute chart and the one minute chart is brutal.
• 36:46
  The one minute chart is brutal, right?
• 36:49
  Don't look at that. Don't look.
• 36:50
  Yeah, don't trade the one minute chart.
• 36:51
  The one minute chart is just fun to look at.
• 36:53
  All right, guys, don't, don't trade the one minute chart.
• 36:56
  But yeah, no, I, I agree. I think, I think recently I have
• 37:02
  been kind of I, I'm not going to say counter trading 'cause I
• 37:06
  don't actually trade, but like trying to counter narrative my
• 37:11
  emotions, if that makes sense. You know, like counter trade
• 37:14
  your emotions. That's one of the, the big kind
• 37:16
  of wisdoms from Wall Street's like always like do the opposite
• 37:19
  of what your emotions are telling you to do and you're
• 37:21
  usually good. And so on the show, I've been
• 37:24
  trying to do a counter narrative to what I'm feeling and you guys
• 37:28
  see me crash out on the show. You guys see me literally like
• 37:31
  my emotional state on the show. They know when I'm feeling it or
• 37:34
  not because you're just like, I'm, I'm beat down guys like
• 37:37
  I'm, I'm worn out. But in the last week or so, I
• 37:41
  have been feeling because I'll, you know, I'll talk to Nico or
• 37:44
  Luke and Luke's like the most bullish person.
• 37:47
  Nico's a perma bear, so you can kind of balance against him.
• 37:49
  I'm a I'm a perma bull as well. And when we start feeling
• 37:54
  extremely bearish is when I'm like, oh, then we're probably
• 37:58
  going to bottom out. Like this has got to be the
• 38:00
  ball. But the bottom when all the
• 38:02
  bulls I know are feeling bearish right now and asking themselves
• 38:06
  like, should I sell out? Like, let's sell it all right
• 38:09
  now, you know, go put it on black on roulette.
• 38:12
  Like let's buy a sailboat and just call it quits.
• 38:15
  And to me, I'm like, that's when I know things are getting going
• 38:18
  to get super bullish. So I couldn't agree more on
• 38:21
  that. All right, guys, I do got to
• 38:23
  move on. We we actually went a long time
• 38:25
  on some chart bowling today. So we also to follow up what we
• 38:30
  just saw sailors doubling down on 150K end of year.
• 38:33
  So you know, Kent brought that up.
• 38:35
  We'll chat about that a little bit.
• 38:37
  And then we got some interesting news coming out of the Samurai
• 38:42
  wallet case, which actually opened a whole nother can of
• 38:46
  worms on Twitter. You know, everyone's freaking
• 38:47
  out about stuff on Twitter, but it is this is some interesting
• 38:52
  stuff happening and then with Kent, of course, from SAS
• 38:56
  mining, you were saying some interesting stuff and we'll chat
• 38:59
  about this later of the value proposition of mining hasn't
• 39:02
  changed. Yes, the price of bitcoins
• 39:04
  changed. Well, maybe the price of Bitcoin
• 39:06
  hasn't also not changed as well this year, but the value
• 39:10
  proposition of mining hasn't changed at all.
• 39:12
  So that's what the show will be and of course, got to remind you
• 39:15
  guys smash the like button comment on the show.
• 39:17
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• 39:19
  We are dropping the best of the most content on YouTube.
• 39:24
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• 41:49
  All righty then guys. Well, look at this, we are
• 41:53
  testing 100K as we speak, so the current Bitcoin price is
• 41:57
  100,540, which is a -20.3% decline from all time high.
• 42:04
  We are barely hanging on to a $2 trillion market cap right now
• 42:09
  and the current block height is 92222 two 922,222.
• 42:15
  Hey, at least we got, you know, we got the twos on there guys.
• 42:18
  So maybe that's our saving grace here.
• 42:20
  But yeah, look man, we are barely hanging on to that 100K
• 42:25
  as we speak. I did see a lot of calls of
• 42:27
  people saying like 87K901K ish kind of pull back and then that
• 42:35
  it's much needed in the market. Well, it looks like we are going
• 42:39
  to see this happen. So I wouldn't panic sell.
• 42:43
  I think we had, I think this is, this is the correction that
• 42:46
  everyone thought was coming. And of course 30% corrections
• 42:50
  are pretty standard in a bull run.
• 42:52
  Now, the real question is, is this still a bull run or is this
• 42:57
  a bear market, or is this a fundamentally new cycle market
• 43:02
  structure? Anyways, Sailor was on the news
• 43:05
  the other day, actually yesterday, and he's doubling
• 43:08
  down South. Sailor's still bullish, and as
• 43:11
  much as Sailor has gotten a lot of heat, it's almost as if all
• 43:15
  of his predictions have gone pretty well.
• 43:18
  So let's hear what he's doubling down on.
• 43:21
  Let's hear what he thinks going to happen and of course what he
• 43:24
  is expecting for the end of the year.
• 43:28
  You can imagine that the banks were afraid to get involved with
• 43:31
  crypto under the previous administration.
• 43:34
  You know, getting a supportive White House, a supportive
• 43:37
  cabinet, a supportive head of the Treasury, and then a law
• 43:40
  that says that it is legal for you to do this, I think was
• 43:44
  pretty important. Then that has resulted in an
• 43:48
  avalanche of institutional adoption.
• 43:52
  And now you have companies like JP Morgan, right, and Bank of
• 43:57
  America and Wells Fargo and B&Y Mellon and PNC Bank and Citi
• 44:03
  that are all announcing their support for this asset class.
• 44:08
  And if the trillion dollar banks are willing to custody and
• 44:11
  they're willing to extend credit and they're willing to handle
• 44:13
  the asset class and they're willing to bank the crypto
• 44:15
  industry, that's really the necessary condition to 10X from
• 44:20
  here. Like Bitcoin got to 100,000
• 44:23
  without their help, but getting to 1,000,000 requires the banks
• 44:27
  to to bank the asset. And so the next four year period
• 44:32
  is really about banking Bitcoin and, and the support for digital
• 44:36
  assets in general by the major establishment of bankers in the
• 44:40
  United States and everybody else in the world, right?
• 44:43
  You can imagine the bankers in Australia, Canada, Singapore,
• 44:47
  the Middle East and Europe, Mexico, Southern, they all
• 44:51
  follow the US banking standard. And So what you have is an
• 44:56
  avalanche or a sea change here and the tail, the headwinds have
• 44:59
  become tailwinds. OK, so that's what got us here.
• 45:02
  Let's just talk about the short term 2025 year end.
• 45:06
  Where does it end up because I've heard everything from 100
• 45:09
  to 200,000. Yeah.
• 45:10
  Well, the consensus of all the equity analysts and there's like
• 45:13
  a dozen of them that cover our stock is north of one 5100 and
• 45:17
  50,000. Our our corporate guidance is
• 45:21
  targeted at $150,000 by the end of the year.
• 45:24
  Right. Now on today, on today's price
• 45:28
  action, 150K is probably sounding really good to everyone
• 45:34
  out there considering we are testing 100K.
• 45:37
  But I think the more interesting take and and I know this might
• 45:42
  be like sacrilegious to the cypherpunk kind of ideology, but
• 45:46
  what sailors said, I think it's very interesting that Bitcoin
• 45:49
  got to 100K without any help from the banks.
• 45:53
  And if we want to move up to the next 10X, you know, price
• 45:55
  movement that's going to be led by the banks.
• 45:58
  Now I know me personally, that kind of gives me like an ick.
• 46:01
  I, I get this like gut feeling of like, man, are we really
• 46:06
  selling out? Are we really doing what we
• 46:07
  think we're going to do? But I, I think there is some
• 46:11
  merit to this idea that the next real big move and we're seeing
• 46:15
  this happen in real time. The institutions want to get
• 46:18
  into Bitcoin. They're all positioning
• 46:20
  themselves to get into Bitcoin. Now I wouldn't be buying their
• 46:22
  bit my Bitcoin from them, but it does seem like the next move
• 46:27
  will be front ran from the US banks and that is going to
• 46:31
  spread into every other jurisdiction.
• 46:34
  And we're seeing this play out in real time.
• 46:35
  So I know this is not one of those predictions that we can
• 46:39
  kind of really disprove in the moment is going to be 1 where we
• 46:43
  look back in hindsight like we've done to every other sailor
• 46:46
  prediction and be like, OK, he was right.
• 46:48
  As much as I was fighting it, he was right.
• 46:51
  This will be what you know, we'll look back on this clip in
• 46:54
  four years and be like, OK, was he right or was he wrong?
• 46:58
  But again, still extremely bullish, still extremely bullish
• 47:02
  on Bitcoin this year. And I know everyone's panicking,
• 47:05
  but I, I think it's an interesting framework that the
• 47:07
  banks, which is, you know, the Bitcoin's a separation of money
• 47:11
  and state. I, I know a lot of people are
• 47:13
  thinking to themselves, I thought Bitcoin was here to
• 47:15
  destroy the banks. And now we have sailor out here
• 47:18
  saying it's the banks that are going to take us to the next
• 47:20
  10X. And you can argue he's biased.
• 47:22
  Of course, you know, he's got a, a Bitcoin treasury company.
• 47:25
  So you could argue he is essentially Wall Street at this
• 47:28
  point or might dwarf a lot of the companies on Wall Street.
• 47:31
  So you can can see where it's coming from or further you can
• 47:34
  say maybe he knows something that we don't know.
• 47:36
  We know he's in private conversations with very powerful
• 47:40
  people now because of his Bitcoin plays.
• 47:42
  So this will be something that we'll be watching along.
• 47:45
  This might play out exactly as he said, but we really can't
• 47:49
  disprove this. But just speculating, maybe just
• 47:52
  some a vibe check, a gut level view of this.
• 47:55
  Kent, do you think he's correct? And does this make you feel kind
• 47:59
  of, I don't know, disillusioned about what Bitcoin is and will
• 48:04
  potentially do? No, I, I think I'm kind of,
• 48:10
  maybe I'm, I'm deluded myself, but I kind of see this as just
• 48:15
  an inevitable part of Bitcoin's adoption.
• 48:17
  I mean, I, I took out a Bitcoin back loan in like 20/18/19 with
• 48:23
  Unchained Capital because I thought it was just super cool
• 48:26
  and I was like, cool, I can use some cash.
• 48:28
  I don't want to sell some Bitcoin and have to pay taxes.
• 48:30
  So I did that. And from then on I've always
• 48:33
  been like, why aren't the banks using this as collateral?
• 48:36
  It's perfect collateral. If they have the Bitcoin, then
• 48:39
  if I don't pay, they sell the Bitcoin.
• 48:41
  Like there's actually no need for credit scores.
• 48:43
  It just seems obvious to me. And here we are a decade later
• 48:47
  and it's finally happening. And having better collateral, I
• 48:51
  think fundamentally changes banking.
• 48:53
  And this is just part of Bitcoin being a Trojan horse.
• 48:56
  It's just going to transform the system from the inside out.
• 48:58
  And so while we like to be the rabble rousers, you know, with
• 49:02
  our pitchforks and and torches, you know, storm in the castle,
• 49:06
  like I don't think it was ever going to play out that way.
• 49:09
  I didn't. I don't know exactly how it's
• 49:10
  going to play out, but it makes more sense to me that Bitcoin
• 49:14
  gets introduced to the banks and then they transform banks from
• 49:17
  the inside and for us to, you know, starting the castle and
• 49:20
  see the banks change from the outside.
• 49:22
  So I'm cool with it. It sucks, it's boring.
• 49:26
  You know, I like McAfee a lot more.
• 49:27
  He was a lot more fun, but it's not here anymore.
• 49:29
  So, you know, we got what we got a bunch of bankers and and the
• 49:33
  coin treasury folks. And we'll have to do our best to
• 49:35
  get by. But I think life gets a lot more
• 49:37
  fun once we get on the other side of that again.
• 49:40
  Yeah, it was a we, we really, we really didn't know what we had
• 49:45
  in 20/17/2020 ish. I don't, I don't know when, when
• 49:49
  the, when McAfee supposedly, you know, died supposedly, but we
• 49:56
  had, we had it so good back in the day.
• 49:58
  We had some characters that were leading Bitcoin.
• 50:01
  But man, McAfee, what, what a, what an interesting individual
• 50:05
  to say the least. Those were some classic times.
• 50:07
  Like we really, we really didn't know how good we had it in 2017,
• 50:12
  even 2020 at this point, but we, we thought the best times were
• 50:16
  coming. And actually, you guys know, I
• 50:18
  love watching movies and TV shows.
• 50:20
  And I was telling Nico that, man, this really reminds me of
• 50:23
  The Sopranos in the beginning. He's like, it feels like I came
• 50:25
  in at the end of something. It feels good to build
• 50:27
  something. And I was telling Nico that.
• 50:29
  And it's like, man, is that where we are right now?
• 50:32
  Man, we're, we're such boomers now.
• 50:34
  Like we're just trading the S&P 500.
• 50:38
  It's, it's over, guys. The Ponzi's over.
• 50:40
  We we, we didn't realize how good we had it in the past, and
• 50:44
  now we're reaping what we sow Anyway, enough of me lamenting
• 50:48
  here. I'm, I'm, I'm low key trolling.
• 50:50
  I'm, I'm kind of making some jokes here, But let's move on to
• 50:53
  the news because we got a new update coming out of samurai
• 50:57
  wallet and it's not good at all. So we'll be right back.
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  I need I need to order a whole bunch of these for my family
• 53:56
  anyways, I I'm kind of trolling right now, but this isn't a
• 54:00
  towel guys. So at sat 123, I I took this
• 54:03
  from Nico this morning. It's like AEMF blocking blanket
• 54:09
  and all morning I was just not feeling good and I was like
• 54:11
  putting it on my head and I don't know if it's placebo fat
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  guys, but I was feeling better and then Nico did it as well and
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  he's like, dude, I actually do feel a lot better.
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  So get yourself an EMF blocking blanket for your head because
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  they are beaming messages into your brain guys.
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  Our brains are getting fried right now and I actually now
• 54:32
  feel worse than I did one minute ago.
• 54:34
  Anyways, let's get into this story guys.
• 54:38
  So very concerning news, to say the least.
• 54:44
  I know I've been on the show kind of speculating whether the
• 54:49
  Trump administration is really backing Bitcoin.
• 54:54
  Obviously, it's not a monolith. As anyone that has eyes and ears
• 54:59
  can see, there are parts of the current government that are
• 55:05
  essentially fighting each other. Now.
• 55:08
  We have seen the Trump administration doing their best
• 55:11
  to reel everyone in. Now, again, this is where it's
• 55:15
  unsure if the DOJ is following Trump's orders or if, again,
• 55:20
  they're doing stuff to kind of undermine him.
• 55:23
  So I'm not really going to put blame here on who it is.
• 55:27
  But we just saw this and it does seem like the attack or the
• 55:31
  privacy wars are in full force here against the samurai wallet
• 55:35
  developers. So the rage posted with the
• 55:38
  headline U.S. government seeks maximum sentence for the Samurai
• 55:42
  wallet devs. You guys can see their name.
• 55:43
  I don't really want to repeat them anyway. the US government
• 55:46
  is seeking the maximum sentence of five years for Samurai wallet
• 55:50
  developers who pleaded guilty to conspiracy to operate an
• 55:53
  unlicensed money transmitter earlier this year.
• 55:56
  According to the government, the Samurai wallet devs quote sited
• 56:00
  criminals to launder money through Samurai wallet, not as a
• 56:03
  by product, but as a feature, claiming that developers intent
• 56:08
  intended for the privacy service to be used to launder proceeds
• 56:11
  of crime from the outset. The defendants are asking the
• 56:14
  court to be sentenced to time served.
• 56:16
  And then of course, 2 weeks ago we saw Trump pardon CZ, which
• 56:20
  now everyone from the Trump administration is saying we
• 56:22
  don't even know who he is and we don't know why they did it.
• 56:25
  They're just like, yeah, it sounded like a good idea.
• 56:27
  People in crypto liked him. We also saw them pardon Arthur
• 56:30
  Hayes as well for essentially at least from the charges that they
• 56:34
  were given very similar things. Anyways, according to the
• 56:40
  prosecution sentencing memorandum, the developers
• 56:43
  laundered quote at least $237,000,000 in proceeds from
• 56:46
  drug trafficking, darknet marketplaces, cyber intrusions,
• 56:49
  frauds, murder, fraud. I don't think I can say that
• 56:52
  schemes and a don't think I could say that one using
• 56:56
  samurai. Notably the allegation that
• 56:58
  proceeds from some of these schemes had flowed through
• 57:02
  Samurai wallet had not previously been mentioned.
• 57:05
  Quote the defendants crimes are not predicted on a a regulatory
• 57:08
  lapse but on the defendants unambiguous desire, intent and
• 57:12
  actions taken to help criminals engage in money laundering and
• 57:16
  sanctions evasion through samurai.
• 57:18
  The conspiracy to commit sanctions evasion charge, which
• 57:21
  too carries a maximum sentence of 20 years, was also dropped in
• 57:25
  exchange for the developers guilty plea.
• 57:28
  The notion that designing Samurai wallet as the privacy
• 57:30
  while wallet is some sort of endorsement of criminal activity
• 57:34
  is highlighted throughout the memorandum as a prosecution
• 57:37
  rights quote. Samurai's website bragged that
• 57:39
  it was virtually impossible to link inputs and outputs and even
• 57:43
  a single Whirlpool transaction. And the privacy feature Ricochet
• 57:46
  was designed to create quote unnecessary intermediate
• 57:49
  transactions that served as a layering technique for Samurai
• 57:53
  users to make it even more difficult to determine that a
• 57:56
  particular batch of cryptocurrency had actually
• 57:59
  originated from criminal transactions.
• 58:02
  Again, the prosecution states that the Samurai website bragged
• 58:05
  about this feature, and it says further describing the Ricochet
• 58:10
  feature as a premium tool that adds extra hops of history in
• 58:13
  your transaction and which would allow customers to stop the
• 58:16
  blacklist and help guard against unjust third party account
• 58:18
  closures. Going further, though, the
• 58:23
  prosecution claims that blacklists are lists of
• 58:25
  cryptocurrencies. No, we, we, we don't need that
• 58:27
  one. OK, so they dropping the
• 58:29
  charges, but the continuing prosecution.
• 58:33
  There is an interesting part about this later, which really
• 58:36
  kicked up the, you know, the Twitter brigade here.
• 58:40
  So one, it does seem like the US government, the DOJ, whoever you
• 58:45
  want to blame, they are attacking privacy.
• 58:48
  Maybe they're putting fault at the samurai wallet devs for kind
• 58:52
  of marketing this for criminals. And that seems to be what
• 58:55
  they're doing. They're trying to make an
• 58:57
  example of them. So it it doesn't look good,
• 59:01
  they're going to get a maximum five years.
• 59:03
  But what became kind of interesting out of this is where
• 59:08
  it's not so much coming from the US government, but a lot of
• 59:13
  bitcoiners now are putting a lot of salt on the samurai wallet
• 59:18
  devs. And this is where it does get
• 59:20
  kind of interesting. So practicing what you preach,
• 59:23
  the samurai could be mixed transaction.
• 59:25
  The memorandum alleges that quote, it appears that samurai
• 59:29
  wallet devs animating concern was not fidelity to anonymity,
• 59:33
  but hostility to forensic companies like chain analysis
• 59:37
  known to assist law enforcement. But the developers quote did not
• 59:41
  always practice what they preach, the prosecution states
• 59:44
  to the memorandum quote, as confirmed by law enforcement
• 59:47
  seizures and analysis of Samurai servers.
• 59:51
  Despite claiming that Samurai was a quote privacy service, the
• 59:54
  Samurai wallet does retain sufficient information to trace
• 59:57
  or quote D mixed its mobile users Whirlpool transactions.
• 1:00:01
  The prosecution Heron refers to a main point of criticism of
• 1:00:04
  Samurai wallets design by competitors and privacy
• 1:00:07
  advocates, in which users who did not run their own node
• 1:00:09
  provided their extended public key their X pub.
• 1:00:12
  To Samurai wallet coordinators allowing the developers to cross
• 1:00:15
  reference transaction, but the memorandum incorrectly assumed
• 1:00:19
  that there was quote no technical or operational
• 1:00:21
  necessity to do so. But the samurai wallet devs
• 1:00:24
  cleared it up. Quote The need to collect this
• 1:00:27
  XBUB data was driven the functional necessity of
• 1:00:29
  calculating balances while operating a light wallet,
• 1:00:32
  highlighting that only around 20% of users were affected by
• 1:00:35
  this decision design decision. Now if you aren't familiar with
• 1:00:40
  the Samurai Wallet saga, it was very known that if you didn't
• 1:00:43
  run your own server, your own Samurai Wallet instance, that
• 1:00:48
  you were doxing your holdings to the Samurai Wallet guys in
• 1:00:52
  Whirlpool. That was one of the main
• 1:00:54
  contentions back in the day that really kind of stirred up the
• 1:00:58
  Hornets back then. But I think what might be
• 1:01:01
  different here again, there has been some back and forth.
• 1:01:04
  Some people are saying the DOJ is lying, Maybe they don't know
• 1:01:06
  what's going on. But this is where like it
• 1:01:10
  started a whole new can of worms on Twitter.
• 1:01:13
  And for more of you privacy hardcore bitcoiners, I'm sure
• 1:01:18
  you probably saw this on Twitter.
• 1:01:20
  So no part which was creating a competing mixing service wasabi.
• 1:01:26
  They used to have beef. There was a lot of blood in the
• 1:01:29
  water. They they were fighting each
• 1:01:31
  other viciously. No para tweeted this and of
• 1:01:35
  course it was kind of a gotcha and he goes Samurai wallet was
• 1:01:38
  logging your ex pubs on their servers force the US prosecutor
• 1:01:42
  that discovered them. Our doubt goes it was always
• 1:01:44
  known that samurai collected the ex pubs of non Dojo users.
• 1:01:49
  The fact that they quote, retain them as far as I know wasn't
• 1:01:53
  closed until now. There's a difference between we
• 1:01:56
  see your ex pubs and quote, we'll hang on to them
• 1:01:59
  indefinitely. So that's where everyone is
• 1:02:02
  freaking out now on Twitter is like, OK, we knew that some
• 1:02:05
  users that didn't have their own servers, you're basically doxing
• 1:02:09
  your ex pubs. But according to this
• 1:02:11
  memorandum, it sounds like they were keeping these ex pubs,
• 1:02:14
  which is now a whole new, you know, a whole new can of worms.
• 1:02:19
  And a lot of people are turning against the Samurai wallet devs.
• 1:02:23
  I'm I'm, you know, being completely transparent.
• 1:02:25
  But Lauren MIT, which I believe, yeah, I'm I'm pretty sure he was
• 1:02:29
  working on Samurai. Maybe, maybe I miss looking
• 1:02:32
  this, but he goes, The thing is that the DOJ is lying here.
• 1:02:35
  No xpub was collected by the coordinator server and Whirlpool
• 1:02:38
  units weren't required to share their xpubs armed out goes eek.
• 1:02:42
  This isn't the first time I've confused this.
• 1:02:44
  Whirlpool users are fine, it's users of the public Dojo that
• 1:02:48
  shared xpub. Is that right?
• 1:02:50
  And he goes, that's right, users who do run their own back end
• 1:02:53
  Dojo had the possibility to use Samurai wallet's back end to
• 1:02:56
  correct their mobile wallet. Not a secret.
• 1:02:58
  It's always been publicly acknowledged.
• 1:03:01
  No, this is where the new contention's going on.
• 1:03:04
  I've been seeing people say that they should still they should be
• 1:03:06
  in jail for this fraud. You know, this, this fraud
• 1:03:10
  claim. I'm, I'm not really I, I, I'm
• 1:03:13
  not smart enough to really know what is going on on the back end
• 1:03:18
  of the software. You know me, I'm a I'm a 42 IQ
• 1:03:21
  bitcoiner here. I'm a I'm a moon boy at this
• 1:03:24
  point. I'm I'm in a self admitted moon
• 1:03:26
  boy. But as you can see, the very big
• 1:03:30
  news, the very kind of concerning and sad news is it
• 1:03:33
  looks like the DOJ is going to throw five year Max in the
• 1:03:37
  samurai wallet devs and then out of this memorandum.
• 1:03:40
  It's it's making everyone be very, very concerned of like,
• 1:03:44
  OK, what what were they actually doing here?
• 1:03:47
  Were they keeping X pubs indefinitely?
• 1:03:50
  Were they going to? Maybe they got caught and they
• 1:03:53
  were going to erase them. Again, I'm not technical enough
• 1:03:57
  and I'm not going to claim that I'm savvy enough to really break
• 1:04:00
  this down. But that is the new saga in the
• 1:04:04
  Samurai wallet dev pace. So one super unfortunate and I'm
• 1:04:08
  sure we'll see some more collateral, you know, fallout
• 1:04:13
  from this. So that's what's going on with
• 1:04:15
  Samurai Wallet devs as of now. Not looking good to to say the
• 1:04:19
  least. So Kent, I don't know if you've
• 1:04:21
  been following along on this. Did you catch this news?
• 1:04:23
  Do you have any thoughts on this?
• 1:04:25
  Well, I did not catch the news the the latest, but I have been
• 1:04:28
  following along the the Samurai dev case.
• 1:04:31
  And I mean, I think it's, you know, it's, it's, it's one thing
• 1:04:36
  that developers should be able to code.
• 1:04:38
  They have free speech as far as I'm concerned.
• 1:04:41
  And the folks that use that software ultimately are the ones
• 1:04:46
  in my opinion, that should be held liable if they're doing
• 1:04:49
  anything illegal. So I don't like the the Samurai
• 1:04:51
  devs are facing the predicament that they're in.
• 1:04:54
  That said, I do think it's unwise to go poke the bear in
• 1:04:58
  the eye and and then pretend like you just wrote code and you
• 1:05:02
  should be completely. I just don't think it's wise,
• 1:05:06
  even if you you are philosophically safe to go poke
• 1:05:10
  in the bear. And so I think they, they sort
• 1:05:12
  of brought down, you know, the, the house on themselves to a
• 1:05:17
  degree here. And I think the Expo thing, you
• 1:05:20
  know, I'd like to assume not a malfeasance here, but just, you
• 1:05:27
  know, maybe they just want keeping their, their house
• 1:05:30
  clean, so to speak, and, and keeping things sorted out.
• 1:05:33
  So I don't really know about the whole Expo side of things.
• 1:05:36
  I won't speculate on it, but I, I don't like the precedent that
• 1:05:39
  this could potentially set in the US.
• 1:05:42
  That's the most worrisome thing to me because I think that we
• 1:05:46
  absolutely must as a community protect the right for our
• 1:05:50
  developers to write code. And this infringes on that,
• 1:05:54
  right? Memorandum does, unless some
• 1:05:56
  specific legislation gets written to counteract it.
• 1:06:01
  Otherwise this, this, this precedent could lead to people
• 1:06:06
  leaving the US to code or I, I don't know what all the 2nd
• 1:06:10
  order consequences are, but this is the first time that, yeah,
• 1:06:13
  it's, it's a bit worrisome. And in some ways I, I get it why
• 1:06:16
  they pled guilty, but I, I, in some ways I also wish they would
• 1:06:20
  have fought it just to avoid setting the precedent for the
• 1:06:22
  entire industry. But you know, it's not my
• 1:06:24
  choice. I, I can't imagine what it's
• 1:06:25
  like to be in their shoes. But I I want Des to be able to
• 1:06:29
  develop and and not self censor. Yeah, no, 100%.
• 1:06:34
  I I think that's a fair case though.
• 1:06:36
  While you were talking it, it did kind of remind me and, and
• 1:06:40
  if you guys watch the show every single day, you guys know, the
• 1:06:43
  last couple of days, couple of weeks, I've been really, I don't
• 1:06:48
  know if inspired the word, but I definitely had my eyes open from
• 1:06:53
  a lot of the conversations that Simon Dixon has been having late
• 1:06:56
  knee. And it was kind of I I kind of
• 1:06:59
  connected these dots here where look, on the one hand, we are
• 1:07:03
  seeing and, and as you were saying, Ken, and This is why I'm
• 1:07:05
  saying, you know, there is a precedent being set right now,
• 1:07:09
  which has big implications for everything moving down the line.
• 1:07:13
  And my kind of thought frame here is something that I think
• 1:07:17
  we've said on the show before, other bit corners have said this
• 1:07:20
  before. But it does seem that, yes, the
• 1:07:23
  Wall Street or the institutions and the nation states are
• 1:07:26
  embracing Bitcoin, but at the same time they are fighting, you
• 1:07:31
  know, the privacy, maybe more hardcore ethos of Bitcoin here.
• 1:07:36
  And it does make you think that there is seemingly A2 tiered
• 1:07:39
  Bitcoin kind of network that is not that there's a split yet,
• 1:07:43
  but it does seem like there is, you know, on the one hand, like
• 1:07:47
  captured Bitcoin and on the other hand, there's like more
• 1:07:50
  hardcore self custody Bitcoiners and there is this kind of war
• 1:07:55
  playing out right now. Well, yes, the institutions are
• 1:07:57
  here. Yes, they want Bitcoin, but they
• 1:08:00
  want nothing to do with the more radical elements of Bitcoin.
• 1:08:04
  And I, I think this is something we're all going to be kind of
• 1:08:07
  living through for the next three or four years, five years,
• 1:08:10
  10 years of can Bitcoin maintain its kind of, you know, for lack
• 1:08:15
  of better terms, more radical birth and, and, and ideologies
• 1:08:19
  as Wall Street comes in, because we all know they will not and
• 1:08:23
  won't touch, you know, Bitcoin that has been coin joined.
• 1:08:28
  They're obviously trying to incentivize you to sell yourself
• 1:08:31
  custody coin so that they can custody in their ETFs and, you
• 1:08:35
  know, their collateral products. And so I, I think this does go
• 1:08:38
  into what I've been saying for the last couple of weeks is like
• 1:08:43
  the most important thing to be doing right now since there is
• 1:08:46
  so much uncertainty in the markets.
• 1:08:48
  And what's going on is making sure that your Bitcoin is in
• 1:08:51
  self custody secured. Because that to me is the safest
• 1:08:56
  place to be considering no one has any clue what's going on.
• 1:09:00
  We don't know what the any administration's kind of
• 1:09:04
  incentive is or what they're going to do in the future.
• 1:09:07
  The only way we know how to protect ourselves is just making
• 1:09:10
  sure your Bitcoin is backed up very securely because things are
• 1:09:13
  getting very crazy. Yes, the price is fluctuating.
• 1:09:16
  I, I think I see everyone in the chat saying it's, it's testing
• 1:09:20
  100K here. But as we see, there is this
• 1:09:24
  kind of continuation of this privacy war playing out.
• 1:09:28
  And it does look like you can say it's nefarious, you can say
• 1:09:32
  it's with good intentions, but it does look like Wall Street is
• 1:09:36
  doing their best and, and cohesion with, you know, the
• 1:09:39
  governments here, the public and private sector, kind of
• 1:09:43
  eliminating a lot of the more radical privacy centric views of
• 1:09:49
  Bitcoiners. And so that that is totally
• 1:09:51
  concerning, as I've been saying, you know, Bitcoin can either be
• 1:09:56
  on the one hand, freedom money or the other, the other side of
• 1:09:59
  the coin. You know, us building our gilded
• 1:10:02
  cage here, our golden cage here where everything is tracked and
• 1:10:05
  bagged and part of the social credit system like that is
• 1:10:08
  something we definitely need to be vigilant on and stay awake
• 1:10:12
  and aware of what's going on. So that'll be my take away, but
• 1:10:16
  I do want to move on because I want to chat with Kent.
• 1:10:20
  He's been doing some cool stuff. And actually we're going to, I
• 1:10:23
  think unpack some of what Kent, you and I were saying before the
• 1:10:27
  show. So I, I think there's a lot of
• 1:10:29
  wisdom in what you were saying. So last commercial break and we
• 1:10:32
  will be right back in about there are 160 seconds.
• 1:10:37
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  freedom. All righty Kent, we are back
• 1:12:41
  man. Last time you were on you were
• 1:12:43
  talking about the, you know, your new Ethiopia project you
• 1:12:48
  just launched super hyped on that.
• 1:12:51
  We are going to, you know, change the direction a little
• 1:12:54
  bit here because you said something and I, I re, I
• 1:12:57
  rehashed it earlier, but you said essentially the price of
• 1:13:01
  Bitcoin has changed, but the value proposition of mining
• 1:13:04
  hasn't. Can you unpack that for the
• 1:13:06
  audience? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 1:13:08
  So I think it's sort of, it almost sounds so simple.
• 1:13:14
  It sounds stupid, but Bitcoin mining is the only way to
• 1:13:17
  generate Bitcoin, right? So you put dollars into buying a
• 1:13:21
  piece of hardware, you purchase electricity or run that hardware
• 1:13:25
  and maintain that hardware and it generates you Bitcoin.
• 1:13:28
  There's nothing else on the planet that will generate
• 1:13:31
  Bitcoin. So as a result, what you're
• 1:13:35
  doing is you're saying, cool, I'm going to go buy a piece of
• 1:13:39
  hardware and, and have this fixed cost of energy and I get
• 1:13:42
  this certain amount of Bitcoin now.
• 1:13:44
  So if you look at it like Bitcoins, price volatility is
• 1:13:48
  completely on the side from the Bitcoin mining value proposition
• 1:13:51
  because the price of the hardware, it hasn't changed
• 1:13:54
  since Bitcoin changed from 125K to today.
• 1:13:57
  Price of the hardware is the same, price of electricity
• 1:14:00
  hasn't changed and the amount of Bitcoin that you're generating,
• 1:14:04
  it really hasn't changed much either.
• 1:14:06
  You know, every two weeks there's a difficulty adjustment
• 1:14:08
  and maybe it changes a couple percentage points on the margin
• 1:14:12
  there. I actually believe that we will
• 1:14:14
  actually see it coming down here.
• 1:14:16
  As you know, some of the publicly traded mining companies
• 1:14:20
  pivot away towards AI expect, you know, some hashtag comes
• 1:14:23
  offline is that gets substituted for high power computation.
• 1:14:26
  But All in all, what's actually changed since we were at 125 K?
• 1:14:32
  What's changed is the market's mentality about Bitcoin, right?
• 1:14:35
  Everybody's freaking out. We're going to 35 Ki think I've
• 1:14:37
  seen in the chat and maybe 16 K is a low, low watermark.
• 1:14:41
  You know we're all going to die, right?
• 1:14:42
  Like this is happening, so let's let's back up the truck and,
• 1:14:47
  and, and plug in some hardware because the hardware value
• 1:14:50
  proposition hasn't changed. And if more miners decide to
• 1:14:52
  unplug, well, great, now you get more Bitcoin.
• 1:14:56
  The point being that mining is the best way to acquire Bitcoin,
• 1:15:00
  full stop. Because all these shenanigans
• 1:15:02
  about price just go away. You're just plugging in a piece
• 1:15:05
  of hardware. You're doing a cipher pump pump
• 1:15:08
  approach to acquisition because it's from the protocol, it's
• 1:15:12
  outside the the banking network and you are able to put those
• 1:15:16
  directly into cold storage in your wallet and you don't have
• 1:15:19
  to think about it. You just pay your electric bill.
• 1:15:20
  You know, I don't understand why we decided to go into exchanges
• 1:15:24
  was a better experience, but it is easier, right?
• 1:15:27
  And that's one of the things that SAS mining is trying is
• 1:15:30
  tackling, right, is the ability to acquire Bitcoin through
• 1:15:34
  mining in a software as a service approach that we're so
• 1:15:38
  used to online, like really the first company to approach it
• 1:15:41
  from that angle. And you know, to to our to kind
• 1:15:46
  of back this up, we're seeing a massive influx in our customer
• 1:15:49
  base right now as a result, because people, I think when you
• 1:15:52
  first learn about Bitcoin, there's a knee jerk reaction
• 1:15:55
  that you want to mine to get your Bitcoin because there's
• 1:15:57
  something really rewarding about generating it yourself.
• 1:15:59
  And I don't think to date that anybody has really cracked that
• 1:16:03
  nut on how to do it in an easy way.
• 1:16:06
  And we're attempting to and I think we'll get close.
• 1:16:08
  So anyway, I know I sound like I'm chilling, but I'm really
• 1:16:11
  proud of what we're building here.
• 1:16:12
  And I just think it's better Bitcoin because it's outside the
• 1:16:14
  banking system, you know, your energy cost averaging at a lower
• 1:16:18
  price. You don't have to worry about
• 1:16:20
  the price fluctuations of Bitcoin.
• 1:16:23
  And you don't ever have to feel stupid that, you know, you threw
• 1:16:26
  in a whole bunch of money and the Bitcoin went down ten, 1520%
• 1:16:29
  and you feel feel like you need to sell it.
• 1:16:30
  Like that just doesn't happen. Yeah, no, it it does make a lot
• 1:16:37
  of sense what you're saying. And I was actually thinking
• 1:16:40
  about this last night and I, I think we've talked about this a
• 1:16:44
  few times. You know, the hash rate in
• 1:16:47
  Bitcoin is what now over a Zeta hash?
• 1:16:51
  It's it's, you know, securely gone over what a Zeta hash is
• 1:16:55
  1000 XA hash. It's just like it's sky rocketed
• 1:17:00
  that, you know, Kaiser keeps saying that the price follows
• 1:17:04
  hash. The hash is just going crazy and
• 1:17:07
  the price hasn't been doing anything.
• 1:17:08
  And and it's not about talking about the price, but last night
• 1:17:11
  I was thinking just in the context of mining for people out
• 1:17:15
  there. And I know you did just kind of
• 1:17:17
  make the case for it, but it does seem like it, it like the
• 1:17:21
  competition has gone so high now with all the big public
• 1:17:25
  companies. And it does seem like the little
• 1:17:28
  guy. And I know we've seen a couple
• 1:17:30
  of solo miners with their what are the bid axes or the nerd
• 1:17:35
  miners or whatever get some blocks recently.
• 1:17:38
  But it does seem like the barrier to entry for new people
• 1:17:42
  because I remember when I got into Bitcoin, I, I've told this
• 1:17:46
  story before to you where I, I got caught up in the, the cloud
• 1:17:49
  mining and I, I think I only put like $100 into it, but that
• 1:17:53
  never got that money back, obviously.
• 1:17:55
  And so anyways, my, my question is like, it does seem like the
• 1:17:59
  barrier to entry and the competition is so high right now
• 1:18:02
  in Bitcoin mining because of the public minings and the huge
• 1:18:05
  infrastructure and the fact that it's going like globally, you
• 1:18:08
  know, huge nation state backed mining operations.
• 1:18:13
  So anyways, it's like, is there still an opportunity for the
• 1:18:17
  little guy out there to compete or is like kind of the business
• 1:18:21
  model that you're creating in your eyes?
• 1:18:23
  Of course, you have your bias, but it seems like that might be
• 1:18:26
  the only way for the small guy to compete.
• 1:18:28
  Now. It's no longer you just plug in
• 1:18:30
  some S nines and and you know, in your house and your wife
• 1:18:33
  yells at you like those days seem to be completely gone.
• 1:18:37
  And so it does seem like you need to kind of update your
• 1:18:40
  thinking on how to successfully get into Bitcoin mining, if
• 1:18:44
  that's a choice you want to do. Yeah, I think, you know, there's
• 1:18:48
  a couple different segments of the market that we see, right?
• 1:18:51
  I think the bid acts movement has been incredible, right,
• 1:18:54
  because it's helped to educate people on mining because they
• 1:18:57
  can. There's an affordable price
• 1:18:59
  point, you know, 100 to $200 for one of these little devices.
• 1:19:03
  You can see how mining is. You can touch it, you can feel
• 1:19:05
  it. Great education.
• 1:19:07
  You know, lottery ticket odds are not much better than a
• 1:19:11
  lottery ticket. And thankfully, a couple people
• 1:19:14
  have hit blocks along the way with those.
• 1:19:16
  And then there's another segment of the community, though, that
• 1:19:19
  wants to plug in mining hardware in the garage.
• 1:19:21
  The noise, the electrification of your mining rig, doing that
• 1:19:26
  all safely so there's not fires, you know, the mayoral disputes
• 1:19:29
  that happen, most of us don't want that.
• 1:19:32
  But the bigger problem with trying to mine in your home is
• 1:19:35
  you just don't have low cost power.
• 1:19:36
  The average cost of power in the US is like $0.19 and going up
• 1:19:40
  thanks to, you know, data centre pressure, which is why Bitcoin
• 1:19:44
  mining publicos are pivoting towards that.
• 1:19:46
  So it's just not cost effective, which is why we've scoured the
• 1:19:50
  planet and we operate in Paraguay, the Arctic Circle, in
• 1:19:54
  Norway and now in Ethiopia because we want low cost power
• 1:20:00
  to offer to our clients so that it's actually a valuable
• 1:20:03
  proposition for acquiring your Bitcoin.
• 1:20:06
  So yeah, it's not, I don't see Bitcoin mining is largely
• 1:20:09
  available unless you're going to work at the margins or the edges
• 1:20:13
  and and tinker around with it. You know, heat reuse is a is a
• 1:20:16
  is a great application. I mean, as long as you're going
• 1:20:18
  to heat your home with electricity anyway or heat your
• 1:20:21
  water, why shouldn't you earn a few SAT's do and I love that
• 1:20:24
  application. But if you actually want to
• 1:20:26
  acquire Bitcoin in any sort of volume, then really kind of a
• 1:20:32
  software as a service approach like we're taking, I think is
• 1:20:34
  your best bet. Got it.
• 1:20:36
  Got it. OK.
• 1:20:38
  So pivoting a little bit, you did say something else
• 1:20:42
  interesting before we started the show.
• 1:20:44
  And I haven't, I haven't teased it yet, but you said you just
• 1:20:48
  got back from cab comp and you were thinking very deeply about
• 1:20:54
  this idea of Bitcoin ossifying. Can you explain this to people?
• 1:20:59
  Oh yeah, this is a spicy 1, and I don't know that everybody's
• 1:21:02
  going to love this take. It's a pragmatic take.
• 1:21:05
  Get Spicy 10. Get this.
• 1:21:06
  What do people want? Yeah, so I'm going to be spicy.
• 1:21:09
  I'm going to piss off some folks.
• 1:21:10
  But wait, wait, wait, wait. Not not too spicy.
• 1:21:12
  Remember, you're on. YouTube Oh yeah, yeah no, no,
• 1:21:14
  I'm looking as spicy as I did last time I I you guys don't
• 1:21:17
  know this, but I almost got them a strike by.
• 1:21:19
  Yeah, he did. He did.
• 1:21:21
  So I got a real of. The Node Wars of 2025.
• 1:21:25
  But no, I think my spicy take is I was, I went to tab conf, which
• 1:21:28
  is a developer only conference, wonderful conference.
• 1:21:31
  So this has literally nothing to do with the conference.
• 1:21:33
  And I was looking around, you know, there's a lot of core devs
• 1:21:37
  there. There's a lot of other devs
• 1:21:38
  working on other areas of the Bitcoin protocol, lightning, all
• 1:21:41
  this stuff. And, and what I, what I noticed
• 1:21:43
  is what was missing in that. And I was reflecting, you know,
• 1:21:48
  I gave a talk at at the Baltic honey Badger the last time I
• 1:21:52
  gave it about how Bitcoiners must mine.
• 1:21:54
  And one of the one of the topics in there is how I see Bitcoin as
• 1:21:59
  you know, 1000 year project. I genuinely do.
• 1:22:03
  And and if you look at anything that has survived that humanity
• 1:22:07
  has worked on continuously for 1000 years, what are the
• 1:22:11
  attributes that we actually had as a community to cause a multi
• 1:22:16
  generational project to survive? And when I look, you know, like
• 1:22:21
  what survived 1000 years, it took us 900 years, 860 years, I
• 1:22:26
  believe, to build them along cathedral.
• 1:22:27
  There's a couple other like Catholic cathedrals that took a
• 1:22:31
  similar amount of time to build in Europe.
• 1:22:33
  But if you look at like what institutions have survived for
• 1:22:36
  like 1000 plus years and I was there at Tad conf and I was
• 1:22:40
  like, man, I, I don't think we're going to make it because
• 1:22:42
  we don't have any of these characteristics like we are,
• 1:22:46
  we're confined like the caretakers of, of the Bitcoin
• 1:22:50
  software are computer scientists, you know,
• 1:22:53
  cryptographers, maybe a few computer engineers from the
• 1:22:56
  mining side. You know, I just don't think
• 1:22:58
  that we actually have a holistic picture or the world view
• 1:23:01
  necessary as a community. You know, where's the historians
• 1:23:06
  that are studying what this takes?
• 1:23:07
  Where are the the biologists that are studying how bitcoins a
• 1:23:11
  digital Organism? I I just don't think that we
• 1:23:13
  have what it takes to build 1000 year project that's going to
• 1:23:17
  continue to evolve and change. I don't unless our community
• 1:23:20
  fundamentally changes and we go look at what it takes to build
• 1:23:23
  1000 year institution and I don't think we have it in it.
• 1:23:26
  So I what I actually think pragmatically is going to happen
• 1:23:28
  is we break down into warring divisions and tribes and we
• 1:23:32
  basically ossify where we are right now.
• 1:23:35
  And I don't know that that's a horrible thing either, right?
• 1:23:37
  So this is not me painting it this good, that bad situation.
• 1:23:40
  This is just me pragmatically looking at what I think the most
• 1:23:42
  likely outcome is here. And I think the most likely
• 1:23:44
  outcome is unless it's an existential threat to Bitcoin
• 1:23:48
  itself, like Quantum, I do think is an existential threat unless
• 1:23:53
  it's something of that nature. I think that the most likely
• 1:23:56
  outcome for bitcoins development is stasis and and more towards
• 1:24:01
  ossification. So anyway, that's that's my
• 1:24:03
  spicy take. It is spicy.
• 1:24:06
  It, it, it does make you think of what what you're saying and,
• 1:24:11
  and where we are. And, and honestly, like you said
• 1:24:15
  at the end, it you, it's hard to say whether this is a good or a
• 1:24:19
  bad thing, But while you were going it, it maybe this is just,
• 1:24:23
  you know, the, the eternal optimist in me.
• 1:24:25
  It, it really just sounded like a me or to me a, a call for
• 1:24:29
  every single one of us to get better and, and, you know, try
• 1:24:32
  to rise above who we are at the moment and try to become, you
• 1:24:37
  know, the, the Renaissance man that Bitcoiners have been
• 1:24:41
  talking about for a long time. Like I, I joke with you guys all
• 1:24:43
  the time that I'm a 42 IQ Bitcoiner here, but a lot of my
• 1:24:47
  interests are definitely multidisciplinary.
• 1:24:51
  Like I'm not an expert on anything per SE, but I have
• 1:24:55
  dabbled in a lot of things before I got into Bitcoin, which
• 1:24:58
  I think helped me understand what Bitcoin is and, and the
• 1:25:01
  impact it's going to have and you know where it's going to go.
• 1:25:06
  And only when you get in Bitcoin do you realize like, oh, every
• 1:25:08
  little rabbit hole that I took to get to here was needed for me
• 1:25:13
  to understand this. And I think that same kind of
• 1:25:16
  mentality should continue even though you are a Bitcoiner and
• 1:25:21
  you, you, we should kind of go down into different rabbit
• 1:25:24
  holes. And, and always like I do it all
• 1:25:26
  the time, whenever I'm watching anything that's not even Bitcoin
• 1:25:28
  related, like any movie or TV show or read something or
• 1:25:31
  conversations, it always does come back to this project that
• 1:25:35
  we're a part of. And of course, for us on
• 1:25:37
  YouTube, like the work that we're doing is like, OK, how can
• 1:25:40
  I add this to my mental framework so that I can be a
• 1:25:44
  better person and I can help usher this in for the long term
• 1:25:48
  and it become what I think it is.
• 1:25:50
  So I, I, I thought that was the, the deep perspective and I'm
• 1:25:54
  definitely going to reflect on that one, Kent.
• 1:25:57
  So love to hear. Anyways, before we go on and
• 1:26:02
  wrap up the show, Kent, we got to do a SaaS mining plug.
• 1:26:05
  So for the people that aren't familiar with SaaS mining, I'm
• 1:26:08
  gonna pull up the website, do a, you know, elevator pitch for
• 1:26:11
  people, and then we'll wrap up today's show.
• 1:26:14
  Yeah, man. So SaaS mining is your software
• 1:26:18
  as a service provider, we call it mining as a service.
• 1:26:20
  So you go on our website, go to the shop rigs, or you can go
• 1:26:24
  check out our calculator, actually check out the
• 1:26:26
  calculator real quick just to just because I'm, I'm proud of
• 1:26:29
  this. I, I, I didn't get you to.
• 1:26:32
  So we've got what I think is the easiest way to look at the value
• 1:26:35
  proposition of Bitcoin out there.
• 1:26:38
  So you can actually scroll over that exchange price and see what
• 1:26:41
  the value proposition does as you go up or down on that.
• 1:26:45
  So as you go up, you see that. Here let's go 901K because it's
• 1:26:49
  going to drop. On, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're
• 1:26:53
  stacking at what you notice is your stacking price is still
• 1:26:57
  50K, right? Yeah, that's how much do you
• 1:26:59
  generate for the, for what you're paying.
• 1:27:02
  So we just tried to come up with a way to get this across in a
• 1:27:04
  very, very simple way, because what I found being in Bitcoin
• 1:27:08
  mining is that people have been very confused by it.
• 1:27:10
  And I think that people don't think about it the right way.
• 1:27:13
  And that's because our industry hasn't done a good job thinking
• 1:27:15
  about it from a Bitcoin perspective.
• 1:27:18
  And it's because most of the hash rate and literally guys, I
• 1:27:21
  am, I just had a conversation today, I have to keep it
• 1:27:24
  confidential, who I was speaking to, but I had a conference, a
• 1:27:27
  conversation today, somebody deep that's in the pub goes who
• 1:27:30
  absolutely confirmed to me that they are using Bitcoin as a
• 1:27:34
  stepping stone to get Fiat dollars and to do other things.
• 1:27:37
  They're playing Fiat games. Most of the hash rate on the
• 1:27:40
  network is not there to acquire Bitcoin.
• 1:27:42
  And guess what? This is the only way on the
• 1:27:43
  planet to generate Bitcoin. So if we want to actually have a
• 1:27:48
  healthy network, we actually need to be acquiring our Bitcoin
• 1:27:52
  by stack and sacks through mining.
• 1:27:55
  You know, the the downstream centralization issues that at
• 1:27:58
  least myself and others are worried about just naturally go
• 1:28:02
  away as we mine because we won't allow it to happen, will protect
• 1:28:04
  the network as a social layer. So yeah, you go onto a website,
• 1:28:08
  purchase a mining rig, we get a plug in for you. 24 hours in
• 1:28:12
  Paraguay up to seven days. Usually it's a three to four
• 1:28:15
  days in Ethiopia, you pay the electricity, you keep the sats
• 1:28:21
  when they're paid out from the mining pool.
• 1:28:23
  We keep just 15%. Pretty proud of the fact since
• 1:28:26
  we last spoke, I believe we found not one but two blocks
• 1:28:29
  with ocean. So ego types, SAS mining.
• 1:28:32
  You'll go see our name imprinted on the blockchain.
• 1:28:35
  You know the exact customers and gave them shout outs for
• 1:28:38
  producing the blocks from their hash rate.
• 1:28:41
  But yeah, purchase a mining rate, we get it plugged in.
• 1:28:43
  We don't make money selling you hardware.
• 1:28:45
  We don't make money selling you electricity.
• 1:28:48
  Maintenance is included, though, in the price of electricity.
• 1:28:51
  What we do is if we don't make you Bitcoin, we're not getting
• 1:28:55
  paid ourselves. So we tied our fate to our
• 1:28:57
  performance. So we are good big corners and
• 1:29:00
  aligning incentives. And what you see is you Jack up
• 1:29:03
  that price and mining starts to look pretty sexy, huh?
• 1:29:05
  Yeah, someone said go to a million optes, so I'm.
• 1:29:08
  Oh gosh. Yeah, yeah.
• 1:29:09
  I don't know what's going to happen.
• 1:29:11
  I don't know if you have been tested.
• 1:29:13
  Yeah, whatever, 1,000,003, a million.
• 1:29:16
  Oh, wait, sorry, sorry, sorry. Whatever.
• 1:29:18
  A million, three. Yeah, that's some, that's some
• 1:29:21
  good savings there. Yeah, he's definitely saving a
• 1:29:25
  lot from buying today. So you can, you can either
• 1:29:28
  generate it off the network at cost or you can go buy it on the
• 1:29:31
  secondary market. I always, I always like the
• 1:29:33
  primary though. So that's that's our approach,
• 1:29:34
  just trying to bring Bitcoiners back to the fold get get your
• 1:29:38
  sats the way Satoshi got his and intended all of us to.
• 1:29:42
  Yeah, man, that's, that's awesome.
• 1:29:44
  And, and also kudos to the the Ethiopia site 'cause there is a
• 1:29:51
  good arbitrage between the Ethiopia site and the Paraguay
• 1:29:55
  site. So, you know, the new people
• 1:29:57
  that can get contracts with you in Ethiopia, they, that they,
• 1:30:01
  they're going to be very happy. I think they're going to be very
• 1:30:04
  happy. Anyways, Kent, thank you so much
• 1:30:07
  for coming on today. It's always a pleasure to have
• 1:30:10
  you on, man. So we'll see.
• 1:30:12
  We'll see where we are in about, you know, a month or so when
• 1:30:15
  you'll probably come back on with some new news and we'll see
• 1:30:18
  if it was over, if we were right or we were wrong.
• 1:30:21
  You guys know, I'll, I'll tell you when I'm wrong upfront all
• 1:30:24
  the time. So thank you so much, Kent.
• 1:30:27
  Let me pull you behind the scenes real quick as I wrap up
• 1:30:29
  today's show. But really appreciate you being
• 1:30:31
  on today. Yeah.
• 1:30:32
  Thanks Nico. All right, guys, you made it
• 1:30:38
  through another show. We appreciate you.
• 1:30:39
  We love you. I think it's days like today.
• 1:30:41
  There's two things you got to do 1 don't obsess over the chart
• 1:30:46
  unless you're a masochist like me and you like the one minute
• 1:30:48
  chart just for the the the giggles and two looks like
• 1:30:52
  Ramen's on the menu for tonight, boys.
• 1:30:54
  So maruching for dinner and and step outside, touch some grass,
• 1:30:57
  call your loved ones all that good stuff.
• 1:31:00
  We'll be back tomorrow. We love you guys.
• 1:31:02
  We appreciate you. This has been simply Bitcoin
• 1:31:06
  live. We'll see you tomorrow,
• 1:31:07
  12:30-ish, something like that. All right, peace size.
• 1:31:12
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:31:16
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:31:19
  independence.