Latest / Financial Survival Network / Unmasking The BS Jobs Report: Michael Pento Exposes It All #5976

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Unmasking The BS Jobs Report: Michael Pento Exposes It All #5976 · Financial Survival Network

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Now. I don't know why the non from pay reports constantly have to be
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revised to the downside, but you can you imagine maybe it looks good for
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certain people to purport that X number of jobs were created, and then you
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know when they do the revisions. Who really looks at the revisions. It's
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the headline. It's the headlines like, well, much better than expected that
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they're really going for now in there, let's just look underneath the report.
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Other than just the revisions. Government hiring accounted for fifty two thousand people.
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That's a tremendous amount of unproductive people being hired. You are listening to Carrie
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Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere
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else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now
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more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter
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and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Ed. Welcome you
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are listening to in watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie
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Lutz. It's one five twenty four. Happy New year to all. We've
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been a little bit slow lately, taking it easy. Family visiting from out
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of town and just saving things up. So we're starting off the year right
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with our good friend Michael pentopentoport dot com and hey, Michael, great news
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today, non farm payroll report stronger than experts expected. I don't know who
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those experts were. I don't know what they've been smoking. I have no
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idea what they did for the past four New years, but I guess whatever
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it was they ingested is carrying out for a week now. Happy new Year
1:48
to you, Carrie, and I wish you the best of luck, prospery,
1:51
and health for twenty twenty four. Did ye? Let's just start the
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CNBC headline, The non far bearer report was much better than expected, much
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better than expected. Go and look at the c NBC's website, say yes
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that you're fine. So the number came in at two hundred and sixteen thousand
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thousand versus one hundred and seventy five thousand new net new Hire estimate. Now
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would they don't really well, let's just say obfuscated or they left out of
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the headline was the revisions were negative seventy one thousand for October and November,
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and he had those two months together. There was a seventy one thousand person
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revision to the downside. Now, I don't know why the non and front
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pay reports constantly have to be revised to the downside, but you can,
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you know, imagine, maybe it looks good for certain people to purport that
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X number of jobs were created, and then you know when they do the
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revisions. Who really looks at the revisions. It's the headline. It's the
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headlines like, well, much better than expected that they're really going for now
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in there, let's just look underneath the report. Other than just the revisions.
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Government hiring accounted for fifty two thousand people. That's a tremendous amount of
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unproductive people being hired, worst, the non productive. A lot of the
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times they're like destructive of the productive people, right of course, of course,
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So what they do is they tax the productive part of the economy and
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then they employ people to what I call productivity killers is what they really are.
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Now let's go deep into that. There was a six hundred and seventy
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six thousand person decline in the labor force. And if you look at the
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two surveys, so there's the establishment survey in the household survey. As you
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know, the establishment survey sowed it was much better than expected, but the
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household survey showed there were six hundred and eighty three thousand fewer people employed from
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December to November. I said that right, six eighty three thousand fewer people.
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The average work week fell, the index of aggregate hours work dropped as
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well. And then we look at the the ISM Institute for Supply Managements Manufacturing
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and Service sector survey, very key, very very predominant measures of how the
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economy is really doing. Both those surveys showed that there was a decline in
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hiring, in other words, a net shedding of jobs in both the household
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I'm sorry, and the manufacturing and the service sector. So if you look
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through that better than expected bs that donkey dung that they that they like to
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and concentrate on the jobs market is rich, is deteriorating, and it's deteriorating
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quickly. So that's the time. Those are the facts. Those are the
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facts. Things are not always what they seem to be or are they like
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No, no, not at all, and not the way the mainstream financial
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media and Wall Street purports them. Bate. Yeah, don't forget. You
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know, if you look at CNBC and every other major financial media outlet,
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not yours and not the I call the alternative financial media that do we get
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real facts and real analysis. They're they're paid by their advertisers. And those
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advertisers are who the major Wall Street banks and big Pharma, right, Big
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Pharma and the banks and not many others left. Yeah. Yes, So
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if you're if your major sponsors are the ones that are trying to pedal stocks,
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IPOs, corporate bonds, that they get paid to pervade this myth of
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a perpetual bull market and that you always should be invested in no matter what
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you do, And they tend to ignore the big h you know, pullbacks
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in the market like two thousand, two thousand and eight, two eighteen,
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My team twenty twenty, twenty twenty two lips. Yeah, Kerrie, if
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you're preparing for a retirement, what's the one thing you imagine worked hard your
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whole life, you save a few million dollars or maybe more or less in
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some cases, and you say to yourself, what's the number one thing I
6:11
can't have happen. I can't have another thirty, forty, fifty or eighty
6:17
percent decline in the stock market. That's the number one thing you should be
6:20
thinking about. War Muffett said, it best just don't lose money, just
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all those money. And here's the thing. The construct of the economy and
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the markets are so artificial it's absolutely susceptible to these massive air pockets in valuation
6:39
and prices. Sure, sure, hey, you know when we last spoke,
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you said basically that the bond market was broken, wasn't functioning properly,
6:50
and that bad things were going to happen here. Can you just follow up
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on that as far as a lot of people wanted to know, how is
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the bond market broke and what is it not doing or that it should be
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or doing that it shouldn't be. Well, what it shouldn't be doing,
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Carrie, is trading like a Nasdaq small cap pink sheet stock that goes up
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and down, you know, thirty percent a day. The bond market is
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trading like a very ill liquid pink sheet stock on some days. I mean
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you see to even today we had the announcement of the better than expected jobs
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report and yields shot up way above four percent on the benchmark Treasury, and
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then the ism service sector data came out and yields plunged to a huge drop
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and they're back up again. As the core of this interview, this is
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just on Friday of the non front pailwall announcement. So there's a lot of
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illiquidity in the bond market. That's why it's broken. I mean it's broken
7:54
because dealers have a lot of regulations now, they can't keep a lot of
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inventory, you know Basel three. It's broken because of the Fed's reverse repol
8:03
facility, which is running dry. It used to be two and a half
8:07
trillion now it's only seven hundred billion dollars. So when that easy liquidity,
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the bar marker is already a liquid When the reverse repol facility goes to two
8:16
hundred billion or around that number, that's when the easy liquidity is gone from
8:24
banks to buy bonds, and then you just stuck with. The Treasury has
8:30
a thirty four trillion dollar debt. Annual deficits are two trillion dollars. They
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have to roll over five trillion dollars because you know, bond's mature, you
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got to roll them over to somebody. So the Jerseury has to refinance seven
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trillion dollars in twenty twenty four, and who the hell is going to buy
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it if the Fed selling too. The FED is still in the midst of
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twenty native tightening, and that doesn't really bite because it's being offset by the
8:54
reverse rebel facility. That's money that's parked at the Federal reserve. Banks are
8:58
parking their reserves at the Central Bank. But now the Central Bank says,
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okay, you know, yields are probably going to go down. They're saying
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that they're going to lower interest rates. So people are taking money from the
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universe rebel facility in buying bonds, so that's offsetting QT. But in March
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that goes away. So QT is really going to start to sharply bite into
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whatever liquidity is left from the bond market. So you see, you'll see
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the bond market trade even more erratically than it already is, even more huh,
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So where is that going to leave us here? Like, you know,
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you've been pretty spot on about calling what it said was going to do.
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You know, supposedly everyone's celebrating there's a pivot going on. Obviously rates
9:43
have fallen dramatically over the past month. Is the pivot real or is it
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fake? Well, the wolves so I believe that Wall Street takes a pivot,
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you know, a whiff in the air of a pivot, and then
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runs with it. So the FED said that they weren't going to discuss rate
10:05
cuts. They said it if that Powell said it about three weeks before the
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last THAD meeting, and then ittures out that was a complete lie because the
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dot plot shows that they not only discussed it, they have three rate cuts
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in the dot plot for twenty twenty four. Wall Street took those three rate
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hikes and doubled it and said it's going to be six. I say hikes,
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three rate cuts, rate cuts, yes, right cuts. Wall Street
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took that and ran and doubled it, and now it's six rate cuts that
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are going to be supposedly taken in twenty twenty four. And then you see,
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you know, better and expected non farm Paylery report, the unemployment rate
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stays the same, employee compensation was increased in employee costs index rows. So
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now they're saying, okay, uh, there's a not going to be six,
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maybe they'll just be three. And but but the pivot is all a
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rumor right now. I mean, the FED is not right now cutting interest
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rates and they are still doing QT and as I said in March, March
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is a key month, Kerry for investors in the economy, the market.
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It's just huge. Not only does the reverse rebail facility run dry around that
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time, but the bank term funding program that facility is supposed to expire in
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March. That is good that you believe it. No, I don't,
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I really don't, because see Powell. Powell bailed out the entire regional banking
11:37
system in this country right in March of twenty twenty four. He printed for
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this is a fact, he printed four hundred billion dollars in two weeks,
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Kerry. Just so you know, from nineteen thirteen, the formation of this
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horrific organization until two thousand and seven, the fends Ballashie was seven hundred billion
12:01
dollars, around seven hundred and fifty billion dollars, right they printed. So
12:07
it took all those years to get to an asset balance sheet of seven hundred
12:13
and fifty billion dollars. And it took two weeks to double it. The
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double that size two Pikes New Eggs in two weeks. Scary two weeks.
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Come on, man, let's they should be shocked at that, all right,
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two weeks to double it that size, and they bailed out the entire
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banking system with that. And they're still one hundred and thirty three billion dollars
12:33
of banks. So this is what they did. Banks said I I banks
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are failing left and right. There was four banks that failed in March.
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The regional banking system plunge in value. The KRE you can look it up.
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And they did it because their assets mortgage backed securities and bonds were way
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under water because of what the Fed did had to catch up to hiking interest
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rates, and these no one wanted, you know, nobody wanted to buy
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and more hold a mortgage bond that was yielding three percent when mortgagees went yielding
13:05
eight percent. No one wanted. No one wanted to own a treasury it
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was yielding a hand on percent when they can get five percent on a zebo.
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So these banks were insolvent. They went back. They're going bankrupt left
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and right. So Pal says, I will take your assets at one hundred
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cents on the dollar, and I will take them off your balance sheet for
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one year and then and this is March. March is coming very quickly,
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Karen, March, you're supposed to give me back. I'm gonna be handing
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you your assets that are still severely underwater and in some cases much more severely
13:39
underwater than they were in March of twenty three, and you're going to give
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me back one hundred cents on the dollar, all that credit plus interest.
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Now, if that happens, you're going to see the flushing sound of the
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stock market down the toilet. Now, some people say that he has to
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do this because he has to stop the speculation and he'll never get to two
13:58
percent inflation. I happened to think, and you know, it's hard to
14:01
read this schizophrenic, effectless and sometimes sometimes mendacious Fed. It's hard to read
14:09
what they're going to do. But I believe he has to err on the
14:11
side of inflation. So he's going to let he's going to expand and extend.
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OK, we agree on that. So what is that going to do
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to our inflation rate? I mean, let's assume that right now, and
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I'm not buying it, that inflation's totally under control. Prices are stable,
14:30
they're not going any higher for right now. But now the Fed's gonna going
14:35
to step on the gas pedal and ease up off the brake pedal all at
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once. What does that do to our inflation here? Well, you asked
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the most salient question that there possibly is good for you. So so prices
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for most Americans, sixty percent of Americans have virtually no savings paycheck to paycheck
14:56
unfortunately, carry Those are the people that can't for groceries any longer. Those
15:01
are the people that are ranging up massive credit card debts so they can make
15:05
ends meet. For those people, prices aren't coming down like they have to.
15:11
Prices are going up more slowly than they were. Right so they're going
15:16
up at three three point five, three point seven percent year of year,
15:20
just still tremendous salts on a wound because they were going up twenty percent officially
15:28
nine but in reality twenty percent post COVID for a few years. And now
15:33
they're only going up. They're going up more slowly from an already unffordable level.
15:37
So you ask the great question, what if Hallell was to what I
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think he's going to do, stop QT and maybe even go back into QE,
15:50
extend the bank term funding program, and cut interest rates. He's going
15:56
to be doing that when an inflation is already wiping out and eviscerating the middle
16:03
class. And when inflation, record high inflation in this country is still fresh
16:07
in the minds, that sting of record high inflation is still very salient in
16:11
the minds right Americans. So what that means, I think inflation has the
16:18
risk of running intractable at that point. If he's gonna if he's gonna stop
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the bank turn you know, stop the the the quantitative tightening, extend the
16:26
bank term funding program, cut interest rates to try to boost Wall Street and
16:30
keep big banks in a solvent condition and stop the debt inflation and keep asset
16:36
by bubbles boiling on the boil. Then he risks obliterating, obliterating the confidence
16:45
whatever's left in the US dollar and in our treasury market. And that could
16:48
have deadly ramifications because if you have a slow economy, a stagflating economy,
16:55
one that's marked by you know, a stagnant growth and very high prices,
17:00
and you go back into those you know, do those things I just mentioned,
17:03
you risk having long term interest rates rise instead of full Now normally,
17:10
when the Fed, when you see your recession, that's the that's the cathartic
17:15
effect of the market at work. So you see debt to folds, acid
17:18
doubbles, pop, interest rates plunge, and that begins the shield. That's
17:22
the beginning of the healing process. But the healing process can't take place if
17:27
the bond market it goes babilistic and people lose confidence in the purchasing power of
17:33
the dollar. In US treasuries, you can see yield skyrocket, and then
17:37
there is no solve. There is no healing process. It's just a massive
17:41
debacle where you see a bear market in treasuries, prices go down, you'll
17:45
goes up, and stocks to tumble. Well, that's that could happen.
17:49
That's not just a that's not a fat tail risk. That's very probable because
17:53
you haven't cured the problem. You you're gonna you're gonna you're gonna resort to
17:57
the same playbook that you have since nineteen eighty seven, which was, Hey,
18:02
there's a hiccup in the economy, there's a blip in the stock market,
18:07
We're going to print money. We're going to monetize that. That works
18:11
in deflation and disinflation. It does not work in inflation. You know,
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it's interesting, Michael, You and I remember the last inflationary cycle in the
18:22
sixties, seventies, and eighties, But most people alive today don't know anything
18:27
about it. They don't remember it. They weren't alive then, and basically
18:32
they believe whatever bs the Federal Reserve dishes out to them. That I find
18:38
like kind of shocking kerry. Most people don't even remember when we're alive,
18:44
we're at least alive to a point where they actually managing money, when when
18:48
the FED wasn't able to just ride to the rescue. I mean, think
18:52
about just mentioned the history. What happened in two thousand, What happened Let's
18:57
go back even further in the eighty seven crash. How about when the Tibot
19:02
collapse and the Russian debt default. How about when the Nasdak collapse. How
19:06
about two thousand and eight in the real estate crisis. How about well we
19:08
had an outbreak of or before that with the REPO crisis of twenty eighteen,
19:12
how about the COVID outbreak, how about the twenty twenty two Everything is met
19:18
with the same every Yeah, every crisis is met with the same prescription.
19:22
We're going to cut interest rates and we're going to print a lot of money
19:26
and monetize a lot of debt now in post covid is and they've unleashed the
19:30
helicopter money squadron. You know, people get checks in the mail and instead
19:37
of borrowing the money from the private sector, yeah, central bank just prints
19:41
it. Yeah, it's that's true. We've we've crossed the rubicon on this.
19:45
This is the shark has been jumped. Jump. You could use any
19:49
kind of metaphor you like. But if they try that donkey dung again,
19:55
if they try that BS again, they'll fool nobody. Don't tell, don't
20:00
you. Powell can't come back and say, you know, we're really behind
20:04
on the inflation ball and we're going to tighten interest rates, and no you're
20:07
not, because what you really are in place to do, mister Powell.
20:12
And this has been the case since, you know, for decades. The
20:17
central bank is created, was created to protect banks. They are the banker
20:25
back and when banks get in trouble, they go to the federal Reserve and
20:29
they a little The little consequence, a little small consequence of that, is
20:33
that the purchasing power of the middle class and the US dollar is wiped out.
20:38
I'm not just talking about against the Euro. I'm talking about the purchasing
20:42
power of the dollar against gold, the actual value of the dollar. Look,
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gold used to be thirty three dollars an ounce, it's two thousand an
20:51
Now. Didn't happen because gold, you know, it became more valuable.
20:55
It's because the dollar loss it's value. It's it's the your stick and which
21:00
you measure the purchasing power of your currency. And it's crap. It's crap.
21:04
The currency is crap. That she is, that she is, all
21:10
right. So now the question is what do you do about it? How
21:15
do you protect yourself? How do you how do you hide from this onslaught?
21:19
Can you? Is there anything you can possibly do well? We have
21:23
seventy percent of our portfolio in short duration treasuries, the shortest duration that you
21:30
can find outside of tea bills. So we think, I think, in
21:33
particular, the next big thing, the next next shooting drop, is going
21:37
to be the manifestation of recessionary data. You're going to see some really bad
21:42
economic data, which of course is going to cause the padloli in response of
21:47
people rushing into the bond market. That's why we're at one to three year
21:49
treasuries right now. We left, we left the safety of te bills which
21:53
cannot participate participate in an increase in a recessionary environment because there's no duration there,
22:03
there's no convexity. So I went out a little further. I do
22:07
own gold, I do own some minors. I don't have any direct shorts
22:14
other than high yield right now. High yield is definitely a short that remains
22:18
as short for me. I think the next step will be this manifestation of
22:22
the recessionary data. You'll see the Fed react to that. It'll be too
22:26
little, too late, You'll have a recession. Depends on how much they
22:30
do. I mean, there's a range of outcomes here. I mean,
22:33
what if Powell and Yellen, the head of the Treasury, once again,
22:37
once again combined forces to say, hey, let's just this is what they
22:42
did. Let's just launch a helicopter money squadron of six trillion dollars of checks
22:48
into the man and I'll have the FED monetize form and a half trillion dollars
22:52
of it. That's exactly what happened, Carrie. What do you think is
22:55
going to happen to the deficit that's already we have a peacetime deficit. I
23:00
get the vomit in my mouth. The odject of this coming as I speak.
23:03
We've got two trillion dollar annual deficit in peacetime and prospect and supposedly goldilocks
23:10
prosperity. That deficit is going to go to six trillion dollars if we have
23:14
a recession. That's what I think. That's my that's my prediction. So
23:18
who the heck is gonna buy it? And at what price? That's the
23:21
reality. That's to check me. People tell me all the time, this
23:23
aggravates me a couple of things. Many things aggravate me, but two of
23:26
the things that aggrevate Well, don't you know. The reason why we had
23:32
such great growth is because the the defend and treasury, particularly the treasury,
23:37
they they had, they ran these huge deficits, and deficits are very stimulid
23:41
and stimilated to it. The deficits are what deficits do in the long run.
23:45
They may let me they made in a short term boost maybe, but
23:48
what they what they do in the long run is they they they create a
23:52
condition of stagflation. And so they they they are they are productivity killers and
23:57
inflation engenderers. That's that's what they do. That's what eppisit is doing the
24:00
way. Yeah, exactly. So if they do it, if they do
24:03
it now, if they're gonna, if they're gonna try, then if they
24:07
go to the usual playbook, watch what happens in long duration bond yields ten
24:11
years, twenty years, thirty years, zero coupon bonds, if those yields
24:17
rise instead of fall out below yep. So, so they'll actually we already
24:25
see that when they just print money. Now, it doesn't really grow the
24:29
economy any right, economy doesn't grow from it, No, exactly exactly correct.
24:34
And then if we see when they cut rates, rates actually go up.
24:40
Wow, what is that going to say? Well, you'll get you'll
24:42
you'll you'll finally get the resteepening of the yield curve. But it's not the
24:45
kind that you like. I mean usually usually what you want to see is
24:52
that, you know, bond yields on the short end fall because they're following
24:55
the said that's gonna happen. But long term yields come down a lit little
25:00
bit in response to the recession. But if that yield curve steepens, because
25:04
the confidence in the bond market goes into the crapper. You know you're going
25:08
to see we're going to be in a debt spiral well where they have to
25:12
keep issuing debt and no one wants to buy it unless they interest rates go
25:18
to the moon, So that Fed prints money to keep interest rates down,
25:21
which causes more of a deficit and deficit and you just go into this vicious
25:26
death spiral in the bond market. That's that's a very unfortunately, this is
25:32
what which you get when you have artificial markets. That's a real risk right
25:36
out there. It's not the it's not the base case scenario, but it's
25:38
a definite risk. So the pivot is on, although maybe not on as
25:45
much as Wall Street was hoping, right, but depends definitely on That's going
25:48
to be the big surprise. What are Powell pivots and and the bond market
25:52
doesn't respond in the Pavlolian response that the reflexive response as always, so keep
25:57
an eye out for that. It might happen. I think it could.
26:00
It's going to happen initially. You'll see that reflexive reaction into the bond market
26:06
as the recessionary data manifests. But boy, it's going to be bad news
26:11
if that's not if that doesn't have a protracted nature to it, watch out
26:15
for that. But that's the kind of thing I monitor here. I have
26:18
an inflation, deflation and economic cycle model. It's twenty point model. Ten
26:22
components for inflation and inflation, ten for recession and growth, and that keeps
26:26
you on the right side of the trade. You know, last year I
26:29
was predicting that we would have a recession, but the model signaled after what
26:33
Powell did in March that hey, wait, credit spreads are essen and financial
26:38
conditions are actually loose, are actually loosening instead of tightening. So that kept
26:42
me from shorting the market. I'm watching those indicators very assiduously and I will
26:48
react accordingly. And that's your early warning sign to what's going to happen in
26:52
the broader stock market. All right, so, uh, gold, Obviously
26:59
it's a nice run up, but nowhere near where it should be under all
27:03
the circumstances. Situation you're talking about here, Well gold, You know,
27:08
gold just reached a record high recently, and it did so under an an
27:14
interest rate regime that went from virtually zero percent to five and a quarter percent.
27:18
That's pretty good. That shows you how much central bank buying there is
27:22
how much the supply demand dynamic has gone in favor of gold. I have
27:30
to wonder what's going to happen when the confidence in the and this happened.
27:33
By the way, gold in an all time high while the dollar also was
27:37
surging for the past couple of years. I mean, we were long a
27:41
dollar before we sold it a few months ago. It was a very good
27:44
trade for us. So what's going to happen when with the gold if the
27:48
confidence in the bond market and the dollar get oubliterated. What do you think
27:52
is going to happen to the price of goal? Oh boy? I mean
27:56
gold follows real interest rates, and if real interest rates falling, then gold
28:02
is going to skyrocket. And that very well could be the case. Okay,
28:07
all right, all right, Michael, giving us a lot to chew
28:10
over here, And hey, I'm sticking with the gold silver. We haven't
28:15
seen that big, big boost jet and silver, but I think it's inevitable
28:21
down the road. On a note, I guess the best thing we can
28:26
do is check in with you in a couple of months and see what's happening.
28:30
All right, I'll look forward to that, Kerry, all right,
28:33
just tell us. Best place to find you connect with you on the web.
28:37
So the website is pentoport dot com. Pentchoport dot com. You'll find
28:44
a link to the Midweek reality Check. So I record that every Wednesday evening.
28:48
It gives me, the gives my audience, the salients and important and
28:53
real takeaway from data that you don't see on the Carousel of fools financial media.
29:00
Yeah, it's fifty dollars. It's just fifty dollars a year. If
29:04
you like the free trial that ends in five weeks. And if you are
29:08
a US citizen, you have one hundred thousand dollars to invest, I'll invest
29:11
the money for you in the I deck portfolio directly. All right. But
29:17
the link to michael site is in the show notes this interview on Financial Survival
29:22
Network dot com. If you've got a question for Michael myself, Klatcarrie LUTs
29:26
dot com is the email address to use. And when you're on the site,
29:32
sign up for the free newsletter. You'll find it really helpful. We
29:36
got thought leaders like Michael and everybody else here and Michael, in anticipation of
29:41
the powellpivot, we're starting a news site called the inflation cafe. It's inflation
29:48
dot cafe because I was at a undisclosed cafe recently that we all know and
29:55
hate, and they gave me half a cup half a cup of lots and
30:00
it was you was a few years ago, and I said, you guys
30:04
don't sell coffee. You're in the inflation business. And thus was hatched the
30:10
inflation cafe. Well, even air has become more expensive. I'll leave you
30:17
at this one thought. You know what consumers need desperately, And if Powell
30:21
had any integrity, he would say, I need to get prices down to
30:26
where they where. I need to get home prices down so that first time
30:29
homebriers can buy them. I don't need to talk about reflating asset bubbles at
30:36
an economy when inflation is rising at fifty percent or more above his acidine two
30:45
percent target. Yeah, exactly. Could not agree more. All right,
30:48
Michael, thanks for stopping by. We'll talk to you in a month or
30:52
two. Let's see how this pivot unfolds. Looking forward to it. Take
30:55
care of Kerry. Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
31:00
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to financial Survivalnetwork dot
31:06
com Financial Survival Network now more than ever,