Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Buy/Sell/Hold Arizona Fall League Week 3
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody and welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined as always by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly known as JGB underscore cards underscore, as we all know by now. Today is Monday, October 27th, and we are coming at you with what I believe is our third AFL buy-sell hold. Week three of the AFL kind of just wrapped up using the weeks a little bit loosely there. But we're three in change weeks in, probably 15 to 20 games for every team. We're getting some meaningful sample sizes, even though most of these guys aren't playing every single day. We're getting up to that 40-50 at bat marker where we can kinda take things away and start to make bolder claims. So with that being said, traditional buy-sell hold here, obviously a little bit different than Bowman Chrome, where that's kind of the best way to spend X amount of money as far as like usually the buys and the sells go. It's just there's a better way to allocate your money. This is a classic, you know, the buy is a guy you should be buying, the hold is a guy where you should react accordingly, and the sell is a guy where if you have them, it's time to get rid of it. jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: So a little bit of a distinction there, but with that being said, Jeremy, who is our I? jheremy: It's gotta be right now, Chase Harlan. If you asked me two weeks ago, it would not have been Chase Harlan. he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat a couple weeks back. Jaba: He might have been the cell. jheremy: He might have been the sell, honestly. And I mean, now like as of September 3rd, his base autos were doing about 35 bucks. As of now, they're up to forty bucks. So that is a nice little bump. During the season and like first half of the season, I I know they were like twenty dollars. So like their median price has gone up already, which is good. prep kid out of Western PA, I think, didn't do a lot on the national circuit, was just this big physical third baseman who could mash. They gave him one point seven. came out and I mean this year did split A and A ball A and high A. once he got up to high A, had a couple home runs, extra base hit, stole a bag, had some strikeouts, he was at about a twenty-four percent K rate to a ten percent walk, which we don't love. But we also know that's gonna be the MO here is there is gonna be swing and miss and there is gonna be huge power. And he does that all on the back of being a Dodgers prospect. Number fifty on pipeline overall. right, pipeline? Is that where he was number fifty? Ranked number fifty somewhere. Jaba: Bel if so. jheremy: like yeah, I mean, what do what do we wanna say? Like he's he's caught fire recently in the AFL, right? So over the last two weeks. had three home runs, eleven games, the four hundred and fifty one foot shot, that was one that I think it got out in five point five seconds. it was a ridiculous launch angle. It was just like every metric of that home run was absurd. So it definitely made its rounds. and yeah, I mean think you know the AFL second half of what he's done so far is kind of more telling as to who he is. As a prospect, because you are gonna get some whiff, but you are gonna get that big time power too. I say that as somebody with like a gold, a refractor, a couple base. that the the swing and miss is just something we have to watch. But I think it's gonna be outweighed by the power, by his viral clips, by the fact that he's a dodger. Now, will there be some hesitancy to buy him because he is a dodger? Maybe. But he's also an infielder, not an outfielder, so that should help to his advantage as opposed to the Sorota, Zaire Hopes, De Paula, all those guys. something we had talked about before. You're right. Jaba: Yeah, it's not the crazy log jam. jheremy: like gonna play it third. I think I still think forty bucks probably is a solid price to get in at because if he does anything at all, like early season spring training, think of all the t possibilities of him to go against all those arms with the Dodgers in spring training. not that we can kind of keep reverting back to like the Carlos LaGrange striking out Aaron Judge, but there when you have those types of potential moments, like if he took like Yamamoto deep, like all of a sudden everybody's gonna be all over him. I'm not saying Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: buy on that type of speculation, but like it is there, it is a possibility, as opposed to him going to like Detroit and doing it off Casey Myes. No offense to Casey Myze or the Tigers. That's just the first arm. You might not even be with Detroit. Jaba: I think I think he got traded. jheremy: I was gonna say I don't even think he's with Detroit anymore, so Jaba: He is with the Padres. That not jheremy: Well, double shots fired. Sorry guys. but yeah. Jaba: Yep. Still still holds true. jheremy: I think regardless, he's a good buy. even at forty bucks, like you could do a lot worse with forty bucks, I think. Like who who who in Chrome is around forty right now? Like Wandy probably is the only one. Maybe Ricky Money's like Like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Not a ton of guys at forty. jheremy: maybe Ricky Money's he's gotta be closer to thirty right now, so Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: just trying to keep it in comparative sake, but yeah, I mean If you can buy if you can find bins at twenty five, thirty bucks, I'd grab those for sure. What do you buy? Jaba: Yeah, and I I th I think even on the negatives, right, we talk about the swing and miss and I think with ninety-nine percent of guys with power like this, the swing and miss is gonna be the thing that gives us a little heartburn. I will say at high A it was twenty three point eight percent. Obviously that's not great, but I kind of see that as being like okay. You know, being right at twenty-four percent. Again, it's not great, but I I don't see that as being problematic. You look at a guy like Andrew Fisher, and obviously he was doing it at a higher level, but he was jheremy: Mississippi, I can't. Jaba: pushing what, thirty-five high thirties? you know, Harlan's just jheremy: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: I obviously the power output doesn't match Fisher's, but like you said, the metrics on that one he hit the other day it was like four fifty one, like one twelve off the bat. Mm j just it's stupid easy power. jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I think one thing I would ask you, and I don't know, like you said, he didn't do a lot of national showcases, so he probably wasn't jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: seriously on your radar, at least in comparison to some other guys. But jheremy: Right. Jaba: I guess if you don't Think you can answer specifically, you can kinda go in a macro sense, but with these bigger guys with the raw power, the swing and misses, the holdup, what are you looking for in his swing and his approach that kinda gives you a hint as to whether or not he'll be able to adjust and keep the issues limited moving up? Like what are kinda some things that you look for that would be good and what will be some things where you're now jumping ship? jheremy: A lot of it just comes down to hand eye coordination and pitch recognition, which you can definitely train now, whether it's with like the traject pitching machines that emulate a pit any pitcher's Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: full delivery. They have the I'm I'm completely drawing a blank right now. Somebody's gonna know what I'm talking about, but you can do like the basically eye training stuff where you can just track pitches on a headset and just see everything. When when you start seeing guys missing balls by feet or sliders that aren't even close, they're just sitting like dead red heater and then all of a sudden, here's a slider and it's in the other batter's box and they're just flailing. A lot of Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: that to me is okay, that's concerning, especially as you move up the r levels. but somebody like Carlin, he came from Doylestown PA. We him ranked number sixteen the country. So he was out there, he just wasn't out there out there in terms of doing everything. So I I don't think it's like that unrealistic to be like he's behind the curve in terms of seeing the high level pitching. it's gonna it was 24 draft. So he had all of 25, all of 26, so he should be fully caught up now. But you see it where even arms in the northeast are considered fresher arms because they haven't thrown as much as these southern states. I think with reps, just additional reps for Harlan. We got he got up to high A this year. He's in the AFL getting more reps. So I think the more he can just see, the more pitches he can see, the more at bats he can accumulate, the better it'll be for him. And you don't know, and we I we've suggested this before too, the Dodgers could be telling him, go be super aggressive. Just go hunt that first pitch eater and do whatever you can do with it. Go get into account and look for your pitch and just unload on it. Give him the count, like give him the three green light. Let him do all these sorts of things just to get like just to show off the juice. You don't know what they're working on. And Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: I don't like to use that as just a cover up for any prospects like hole in their profile because I feel like, X, Y, or Z got lit up. Yeah, well maybe they were working on a change up. You don't know. Like, it's very easy to just throw that on there and cover up anything and Jaba: Right. jheremy: make it look way better than it is. But I do think just additional reps and that goes for a lot of it. Like what you mentioned Fisher, like he came out of the SEC throughout high school he's one of the better pure hitters of the in the in the country. all the way through sophomore junior senior year. So y you kinda sacrifice some of the hit tool for power tool and with that type of profile for a Fisher for a Harlan being a corner infielder, I think you're okay with that. If you hit two thirty, two forty with thirty home runs in the big leagues, nobody's gonna bat an eye at that. So Jaba: Right. Yeah, and I think the only other thing with Harlan that gives me any pause is the fact that in his first year he played sixty-eight games, this past year he played eighty-six games. Obviously not a doctor. Not really sure exactly what was up, but I do think especially after you noted, hey, this is a guy Northeast, probably got less reps against high level guys, trying to catch up a little bit in terms of what he's seen and how that plays into his pitch recognition and potential swing and miss issues. It does worry me a little just to see him not getting out there for call it a hundred ten, hundred twenty games. jheremy: Right. Jaba: And again, I have no idea really why he was missing games. I I don't even want to look into it and pretend I know what I'm talking about. But I do think the only thing that gives me pause in his profile is the potential durability question mark, just because like you said, these few years post-draft are so important for anyone, but especially a guy who's a little bit behind the eight ball in terms of the pictures he's seen, the game reps he's gotten. So it's like you obviously want him out there as much as possible, but I will say at the same time I feel it's a solid sign when our biggest concerns are about him staying on the field, like an Aiden Miller or Dax Kilby, and it's not necessarily a huge flaw within his profile. so jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: yeah, I think that just about covers Harlan. I don't know if you have anything else on him or if we're good to to our hold. jheremy: No, I I just think he was probably a really cheap buy it release too. Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: the type of profile that you look back on and be like, Yeah, we probably should have bought a ton of him then. I mean I wasn't even Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: really doing Bowman like we are now back then. But Jaba: Yeah, neither was gone. jheremy: like that's definitely like he's big, he's a northeast like raw er bat and the Dodgers paid him a boatload of money. Like, yeah, go buy that guy. That'll be my Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: foreshadowing to Bo Lawrence later. Jaba: Yeah. Dax Kilby gonna be our hold seventy four forty eight. before the AFL started. He's up to eighty two eighty seven, so just shy of a ten percent or ten dollar increase up just over eleven percent. I think everybody kinda knows the deal on Kilby. We've talked about him a lot. basically said all year when he plays he's great. The concern is how much he's playing. I kinda just mentioned it before when I was talking about Harlan, I mentioned his name. basically going to the AFL, we said, hey So far in his career when he's played, he's been nothing but great. we'll see how that continues against some g some arms that have pitched at higher levels. Whether or not they're particularly good is another question. But yeah, he's doing exactly kind of what we thought he would. He's hitting three eleven with a nine seventy-five OPS, through forty-five at bats, nine of his fourteen hits have been extra bases, six doubles, a triple, and two homers. So it's not like he's just slapping singles. He's really impacting the ball, getting on base. He's five for five stealing bases. I don't think jheremy: Mm. Jaba: he's necessarily known Has a huge burner. However, he did hit a triple where he was running at 29 feet a second, which is pretty elite. Yeah. I mean, teenager missed most of the regular season with a hamstring injury. The extra reps were obviously gonna be valuable, whether or not he was great in the AFL, but I think now we can say, okay, he has been great because jheremy: Mm. Jaba: in single A this year, 154 played appearances. He had a 143 WRC plus, four forty-eight on base percentage. We think the power may be a bit more than we thought. I think the whole thing on him even after last year was was hey this kid has a really advanced hit tool, he's an on-base machine. But I jheremy: Uh-huh. Jaba: think there were still questions around the power. And while I'm not saying he's now like a 30 home run bat, I do think just putting up all these extra base hits, I I think you don't really have to worry about the power. We'll see how much it ends up becoming. But I don't think it's a thing where you're kind of concerned checking in saying, is this all just kind of slap hitting or is he impacting the ball? Then obviously Yankees shortstop, you've talked about it before We've talked about it at length. I think even Bob talked about it last time he was on, but the Yankee shortstop is always going to just sell for so much money. jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: with Lombard, we saw it with Volpe. Kilby is, I I think, at this stage, just as good or as better as either of those guys were. You can obviously get into what they are now, not really relevant, but I I I think really the the only main concerns for me, again, it's the injuries, and I think it seems like there's a real chance from what I've read about his arm strength that he's gonna move off shortstop and become a second baseman, which is I don't want to call it a death blow in the hobby, but that's definitely a bit of a value decrease move. so yeah, I'm thinking at eighty-three dollars, you know, I I I can't justify calling him a buy, but he is a hold because I think that a lot of the excitement that Yankees thing, the shortstop thing. I think it's all priced in pretty much entirely. I wouldn't be surprised if he opens next year at a hundred bucks. But I think if you're ho if you own some of him, I think you'd be crazy to sell. I'm not sure how much I'd be buying. I'm just not sure how much the upside is, honestly, because I think if he comes out next year and gets hurt again, I think there's gonna be some serious questions about his durability and what things look like long term, and I think people will be scared off if it's like, Okay, well now here's back to back years where you can't really stay on the field, especially with those hamstring soft tissue things. I I'm a I'm a Mets fan. I saw Jose Reyes. And I saw how quickly that kinda brought his career to an end and took away his most dynamic, you know, part of his game. question for you. Do Kilby's jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: AFL extra base hits change your long-term power projection for a guy like that? Or is this something where you need to see more before you can kind of move him out of being a heavy hit tool guy? jheremy: Yeah, you wanna see more, obviously. More is better for baseball and evaluating swings. But it you also have to think on the other side, all right, he was out with a hamstring injury. And now he's putting up those sprint speeds. He's getting into power. What do you need to generate power at the plate is your legs. maybe he's just healthy now too, and now we're getting the full Dax Kilby experience. Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: to have those types of sprint speeds, to have Just getting into the power that he is, five for five for five in stolen bases, he's not worried about it. He's letting it eat basically. as much as he can. He had he had a dozen bags in the in A ball too. So it's not like he wasn't getting after it. He doesn't really swing and miss all that much. But I do think seeing the power is obviously like huge. 'cause I think he's hit I think he's like pissed on a couple of really loud extra base hits as well that didn't Jaba: Yeah, he he has jheremy: So just for him to be able to produce that, like I think one of these home runs, I th you might have already said it was one hundred seven, four nineteen, like sure, Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: sure, it's maybe a little elevation aided, like or whatever, like desert aided. Still that's going over most big league fences. Like Jaba: Yeah, it's not like he's pulling a lowing in hanging breaking pitch, three thirty five ten feet over the wall next to the foul ball. Yeah. jheremy: Exactly. Yeah. In the right field at Yankee Stadium or like Jaba: He he's he's hitting serious grown man home runs. jheremy: in that thing before it was called virtual reality that guys used to train their eyes. I knew it would come to me eventually. but yeah, Kilby, like I bought one right at the beginning of AFL. Somebody listed it for forty five bucks, a base auto, so I just kinda snap Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: out it. 'Cause we did think he would approach close to that hundred dollar range, which he's gotten pretty close now at eighty two eighty seven. Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: I think a lot of people too, if they're newer to the hobby, right? they weren't around for the Volpey hype for the Volpey come up, but they were all here for the George Lombard come up of the Yankee shortstop. And now whether Kilby moves or not, he's still gonna be heralded as that next Yankee middle infielder, their top hitting prospect, this, that, the other. Everything you want for the hype train is gonna be there with him. And if he continues to perform like this as well, then I think even the eighty dollars eventually will be We should have bought more. Fun fact, Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: everybody else in the Yankees top ten is an arm. So it goes Kilby, then it goes righty, ready, lefty, righty, ready, lefty, ready, ready, lefty for the next nine. You gotta get decor Jackson, who's in the AFL, actually, but Jaba: Yes, yeah. jheremy: twenty three year old shortstop third baseman. and then Kyle Carr Jaba: Yeah, no jheremy: is twelve. So Jaba: Yeah, no cards for Cor Jackson. I know he had a pretty big I don't wanna word it the wrong way, but he he had some concerns when he got drafted. Some old stories came up. So if he does get cards, I would be curious how they sell. I'm not gonna get into it or talk about it, but go go look it up and I do think it'll be interesting to see how that does impact his card values. we'll leave it at that. But jheremy: Yeah, I think if you can find Kilby even even then somehow in that sixty, seventy dollar range, he's an all Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: guy there. Jaba: Yeah, if he drops back even to seventy or under anywhere after the AFL, just when, you know, draft comes out, we're throwing money at all these new guys, I I do think he's way closer to being a buy than a sell, and that's I think why we had him as a hold. I really don't see any reason to sell him. Unless he gets to like, you know, a hundred twenty bucks and it's like, Hey, you're in on all these at fifty and then I think we just kinda share the personal opinion where it's like, Okay, like if you've like three X your money, like get rid of it. but really the only way he's a sell is if you've made a ton of money off of him and you kinda just want to cash out, clear the board, and reallocate some of that money into cheaper guys that you think have that, you know, wider growth potential. jheremy: Right. Jaba: Yeah. I also think if he's healthy next year, he's probably a top twenty five prospect in baseball. I think if he comes out in high A healthy, hitting well, I I jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I I really don't think it's that crazy of a push because like we've said a billion times now, all of his stats have been good at every level. I mean, even when he came out of the draft, I think he was like the thirty eighth pick, went right to single A as an eighteen year old and there was no power, but I think he hit like four hundred, which is just kinda crazy. from from Noonan joy Georgia. My high school advisor is from Noonan, Georgia. jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: So little little Easter egg there. Alright, Jeremy, who is our Cell? jheremy: It's another fellow J H guy with Johnny Severino, who as of next month will be twenty two years old in his sixth year of Pro Bowl and hasn't reached anything higher than high A yet. All that said, he's still twenty two years old, he's huge at six two, one hundred eighty five, he's probably stronger than that. He hit thirty one over the fence this year. That's pretty good. Had ninety five ribbies, fifty four extra base hits, seventy seven percent walk. To twenty two strikeout. We don't hate that for the power profile. Almost at a seventy percent contact rate. Seventeen percent swing and strike rate. We don't love that. But yet his prices have gone up from the end of the year into the AFL. September third, he was at five dollars and forty one cents. I think a lot of people might have had some shades of his Merlin Valdez wanna get in on it before 'cause he's Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: up to fourteen, fifteen bucks right now. I have a green sapphire auto up on eBay right now. I I bought it for ten dollars at a shop this past summer. 'Cause Yeah. Because Jaba: Otto? Jesus. jheremy: I knew maybe it was stickered at fifteen and I lumped it in at ten. I I knew the year he was having enough. and that's what they were doing. They were doing fifteen, twenty bucks at that time. But he had already had twenty at that point and a green Safi auto, like I'll I'll take that for ten, twelve, fifteen bucks, whatever it ultimately was. Right. Jaba: Yeah. Any living human. Yeah. jheremy: So, I mean Not really sure why his prices have gone up. they've tripled. Not really sure about that. Why they have. Honestly. Jaba: Well, they went up five X. They were up at twenty five at one point. Well he he came jheremy: well there we go. yeah. Jaba: out he came out scalding hot. jheremy: Did he in the AFL? Well he's down to two twenty two with a six ninety seven, so he's got eight hits in the AFL. Jaba: Yeah, and he's been pretty much horrific. Yeah, he he went nuts the first week and he five X. So we're we're catching him on the way jheremy: Gotcha. Well we saw that coming. Jaba: down here, but if you bought him before you're still up three X, so I think that this is kind of a okay, well, you should have sold when it jheremy: That's funny. Jaba: was twenty five, but if you haven't gotten out yet, get out right now. jheremy: He can still make some money. Yeah. Jaba: But jheremy: yeah, that's it really is he hasn't done much in the AFL, but he did do have a really good year in high A this year. So if you want to Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: with that momentum into next year, maybe gets a double A. I believe the high A is a bit of a launching pad for them down there. So Jaba: Murph. jheremy: Murph Connor had it in high A. Jaba: Anford. jheremy: Florentino had it this year and he kinda went off with the home runs. Not saying anything, but there's a l there's a handful of guys. So there's Marlin, Tony Blanco. but they're all also are super strong, so Jaba: Yeah. I i it is crazy because I mean I mean, how many guys I I know that there's some controversy around the balls that were getting used in the low minors. I know you said the high A is kinda known as a launching pad, and it feels like we say that about at least half the half the stadiums in the minor leagues. But how many guys a year are hitting thirty plus home runs in the minor leagues? It i it's not that many. I know that this year it was higher than ever, but it's still not a big list. It's not like the majors where it's like you kinda expect your everyday first baseman to hit thirty and you know, you have secondary guys like the Lindors, you know, the everyday guys. It's kinda like an average year to put up like twenty, twenty five. I feel thirty homers in the minors is really eye popping and Obviously the contact risks are nuts. I mean we just talked about Chase Harlan's contact risks. All these rates are way, way worse. like almost twice as bad. Another thing, I think him being twenty two next year, again he's not old, assuming he goes to double A next year, he's not old by any means. jheremy: Right. Jaba: But it's not like he's a twenty or a twenty one year old where you're like there's runway here where he can iron out that swing and miss. It's not a Harlan where you're like, Okay, well he hasn't played a ton of high level baseball yet, you know, there's a lot of learning left to be done. So I think It's important to say, yeah, Severino has really real results and he had an impressive year. I think it's just tough to make him your guy there because of, you know, the age, how bad the swing and miss was. And I also just wonder, I mean, the Pirates have become a fairly hot hobby team. I think jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: Connor and Skeens kind of supercharged that. But like you jheremy: With Seth. Yeah. Jaba: you you look at the Pirates Not not necessarily low miners, mid miners call it. We're making up a a stage here. But, you know, he's got Wyatt Sanford down there, they've got Murph Gray. You know, those are all guys that have much bigger hobby profiles than Severino. And it's like, in what world is he passing them next year? Like it it would be The only world in which I see him passing them is if one of them has a disaster year. I'm not sure like if he hits thirty again in double A, like I'm still not sure he's even in the same stratosphere as those guys. So I think it's more just saying, Okay, he's a good player, but the market's probably not going to develop the way you would want for those various reasons. And I th I I think you just sell, get your money back. I mean, you spent five bucks, you get fifteen back now, and you can buy a kind of our second tier. DSL guys, go buy a Samil Serrano. jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: it's basically just like swapping a Severino for a Samil Serrano or whichever guy from that tier you choose. Or you can get two or three Elliott Rosarios. I'd take that swap any day. jheremy: Hm. Jaba: I guess to close out here Final question, would you rather own two Harlan base cards at forty dollars each or call it a refractor of Harlan at eighty to eighty five bucks or a base Kilby at eighty three dollars? jheremy: Mm mm. Jaba: Let's say Refractor Harlan versus base Kelby. Because I I think two base autos is like a weird argument, 'cause then it's like, I'd sell one and then jheremy: Yeah, yeah. I think I'd go with the numbered Harlan as my pick. Is that wrong? Jaba: Yeah. No, I I think so too. I mean I think jheremy: I just feel like there's more base autos out there. Jaba: Yeah. I think it's a good lesson because it's like honestly, any time you can get some sort of scarcity value and obviously jheremy: Okay. Jaba: with refractors, like it's four ninety nine, there's still a lot of them. But I think that implied scarcity gives people a little bit of I I don't want to say FOMO, but it makes it seem special. Even if out of four ninety nine it's not super rare, you can probably go on eBay and find ten. But jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I find for me, like if I'm flipping guys, especially in that price range, it's just so much more liquid because people with base autos when they're negotiating, they'll say, well someone's gonna throw one up at, you know, seventy percent at some point I'm just gonna buy that. I don't think people jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: really Misprice refractors as much because I think they know what they have, generally speaking. Whereas I think bases, it's much easier to find like a snipe or a cheap deal. And I do think that that's why, like, as far as flipping goes, I think refractors are just so superior to base because there is that implied sense of scarcity, and I think people know hey, like, probably not going to be able to just snipe a random deal on this. Whereas a base, you know, if you hang out in enough whatnot rooms, if you're watching each. jheremy: Yep. But I also just think like, it's not numbered, it's a base auto, like a typical Yankee or like a your general Yankee fan, like now he's got mega autos, he's got second year Bowman autos. You can get one of those for like a third of the price. So if you just Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: want a Dax auto, they don't care if it's a first or not. Like they have that Right. You can get a colored Jaba: Yeah, why why buy the most expensive base? Yeah. jheremy: second year Kilby for the same price as a base first. And I do think that plays into it a little bit with your pool of which you can sell it to. Once they get that second year Bowman auto, I think it just gives people another option, whereas Harlan's got one auto. If you're a Dodgers fan and he goes on a run, you can only buy his Bowman first, or you can go get a Prism auto. and that's it. Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: So I did Google Greensboro. I did Google Jaba: That that's a great point. Yeah. jheremy: Greensboro. It's like super hitter friendly between the dimensions and just the layout of everything. Super hitter friendly to right-handed hitters, it said. So Blanco just demolishes baseball, so it doesn't matter. The name that I saw that was really interesting was Sammy Staffora. Because he got traded and the moment he w got to Greensboro, he hit 19 pumps, like all of a sudden. So Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, in like six weeks. jheremy: Yeah, forty-seven games, hundred and eighty six at bats, he hit just shy of twenty. And then in eighty-two at bats in Brooklyn, he hit two. Like Jaba: Yeah, I I was pretty upset about that trade at the time. jheremy: I just think there's park dimension factors that we don't all think about or take into account. whereas if you have a pirate's arm throwing at Greensboro, clearly he's gonna get lit up and if he doesn't then buy that guy. So Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I I I think it's interesting you mentioned the Staffurra thing because even at the time of the trade, because it was pretty clear that Luke Weaver was going to the Pirates and I think everyone a lot of people were throwing Murph Gray's name around and I think that that was more just being on the Mets side of Twitter, seeing kind of like, you know, the best possible outcome. you can argue how realistic getting Murph Gray for a reliever is. But I know when they got Stafura, I and a lot of the smart people that I follow were like, Okay, well this guy hasn't been great and then he just went nuts and high A for, you know, six weeks and we're kind of buying him at his highest. So I I I do definitely remember now that you say it, like Greensboro is definitely a launching pad because then when he came in, obviously didn't do a whole whole lot of anything. So definitely good to jheremy: Right. Jaba: good to keep in mind with pirates guys and just in general a reminder to you know check out the parks these guys are hitting in, see how it plays in. jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah, but I I think that wraps things up. we got some good stuff coming tomorrow. We're gonna do a couple episodes with Bob. Hopefully have Dahl back on Thursday and I think we'll probably start a new series on Friday. So jheremy: Also, real quick, another bonus buy, if you can still find him cheap, Ty Pete's gotta be a buy right now, right? Jaba: Yeah. jheremy: proving it and doing it like another three hit game. I think he his prices are still cheap enough where you can probably find some good stuff. Even if comps aren't there, I think he's proving enough of what he needs to prove with what he did in the second half of the year. that was it. Maybe you disagree. I feel like you can fill still find pretty cheap. Jaba: I I I think the only reason I wouldn't call Typed a bye is because he's been going nuts and doing this and maybe it's 'cause people don't really care about the AFL. But like you sent me a Bowman Sapphire ten auto jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: at one fifty and you were like, This is a buy, right? And I literally typed out Yeah, go buy it. And jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: then I went to double check and it was like, No, that's actually way overcomps. Like I I just don't understand why he isn't higher. And it kinda scares me where it's like, you know, if it's not reacting to all this, like what would it take? Maybe jheremy: What's it gonna take? Jaba: that's the AFL not having as many eyeballs, but jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I think if we were going solely off performance, I think Typede's the guy. But then you look at Harlan and it's like, okay, well he's a twenty-year-old in the Dodgers organization. jheremy: no doubt. Jaba: If he farts on a baseball, like he's flying up there. jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: so. All right. Well, thanks everyone for jheremy: That works. Jaba: listening. Appreciate you all. And let's go Mets. See you guys.