Latest / UK Column Radio / Europe's Strategic Failure: Why the EU Can't Stand Up to the US on China | Arnaud Bertrand

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Europe's Strategic Failure: Why the EU Can't Stand Up to the US on China | Arnaud Bertrand · UK Column Radio

0:01
Hello and welcome to another episode of the Silk and Steel
0:04
Podcast. I'm your host, Carl Zah.
0:07
Today I have a very special guest who will provide us with a
0:11
very valuable European perspective on the world
0:15
affairs. I have on the show Arnold
0:18
Bertrand, who is a prolific writer on Twitter and I believe
0:24
also now Substack. Yes.
0:27
And so who who write extensively on China related issues and you
0:33
know, I think Arnold, you will probably do better justice
0:37
introducing yourself to my audience.
0:39
So why don't you give yourself yourself a brief introduction?
0:44
Sure. So I'm, I'm actually an
0:46
entrepreneur originally I'm still today.
0:49
So I, I, I studied business in, in Switzerland, in a, in a city
0:55
called Lausanne. And then I created a company
0:57
called Houstrip, which I LED during seven years in Europe.
1:03
We were based in London and then we sold the company to
1:07
TripAdvisor in 2015. And that's when we decided to,
1:12
with my wife to, to move to China because my wife is Chinese
1:18
and we wanted to have kids. And basically our logic was that
1:25
to, to educate mixed kids, French, Chinese kids, it was
1:31
better to do it in China because we wanted them to, to be
1:34
educated in both cultures. And there are French schools in
1:39
China, whereas there are no Chinese schools in France.
1:42
So strangely, it was easier to educate them in both cultures in
1:46
China than it was in, in, in France.
1:50
And so we lived in China during eight years.
1:54
Now we're based in, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for the past
1:57
two years. But we, we go back to China
2:01
several times a year and we've created another company called
2:05
Mianchi, which is in the traditional Chinese medicine
2:09
space. But as you pointed out, now I
2:13
also spend a lot of my time writing because I've become, you
2:18
know, living in China, I've become very interested in, in
2:21
the country and, you know, just a pure as a hobby basically.
2:26
I've started writing quite a bit about it.
2:31
Yeah, I really appreciate your post.
2:33
As I was telling you earlier, you actually take your time to
2:36
write these very long posts on Twitter.
2:39
And you know, I usually I on Twitter, I don't bother if you
2:43
read people's long posts because I just don't have time for that.
2:46
But your post is very well written, very articulate and
2:50
it's on like subject that's to me of great interest, which is
2:54
on, on China and also China's relationship with the rest of
2:59
the world. One reason I invite you to my
3:02
show today is actually I wanted to discuss with you the the, the
3:08
role of Europe in the time of US China competition, because you
3:15
know, many people had hoped EU could be another pole in the
3:21
multi polar world. But for whatever reason that
3:24
hasn't happened yet. And and you know, and, and, and
3:28
so far it looks like Europe, EU leaders has been pretty much
3:35
very happy to play the puppy dogs to to Washington.
3:39
I mean, as we saw with the current Nesperia case, when
3:43
Dutch government sees 100% owned Chinese company.
3:48
So I you, you, you've written extensively about this.
3:52
But but for my my for the case before my audience, I just like
3:57
to ask you, why do you think that is?
4:02
Because there was a time when Europe did have different
4:06
countries in Europe did try to chart independent path,
4:09
particularly in France case, you know, during the time of Charles
4:13
Charles de Gaulle, he actually, you know, pull France out of
4:19
NATO and, and, and, and, and also try to have a better
4:23
relationship with the PRC People's Republic of China.
4:27
What, and even as late as the Iraq War, I remember there was
4:32
French and German resistance to the unilateral US action on
4:36
invasion of Iraq. But what, what happened?
4:40
What, what happened? Can you can you just share with
4:43
us some of your thoughts? Sure.
4:46
I think a big part of it is, is weakness and the strategic
4:51
dependency on the US basically. So you refer rightly to the time
4:56
of the Iraq war, which is a time when Sheilac was president of
5:00
France. At the time, France was still
5:03
not in NATO because the goal, as you said, had had pulled France
5:08
out of NATO. They were still not back in NATO
5:12
back then. But then since then, Sarkozy,
5:16
who is the the next president of Toshiyaak, puts France back in
5:22
NATO. When you're part of NATO,
5:26
basically it's it's it's kind of like a protection racket, right?
5:31
When, when you have another country that is in charge of
5:37
your protection, which is what being part of NATO means,
5:42
because you know, it's basically it's AUS LED military alliance
5:48
where the US, you know, provides all the weapons.
5:51
And in fact, you need to sign up when you're part of NATO to for
5:57
I, I don't remember the exact term inter interoperability or,
6:02
or something like that. Meaning you need to adapt your
6:05
entire military to, to US standards.
6:11
So in many ways it means it puts checkers on you, strategic
6:17
checkers. That means that you're, you're
6:21
defended by the US in, in the US military system.
6:30
And you know, when, when, when you're defended by someone,
6:33
there is not much you can do against, against them, right?
6:38
So that's why I think that's a big part of the reason why we,
6:44
we've seen sort of this, this rhetoric die down.
6:47
It doesn't die down completely. So, for instance, at some point
6:50
Macron said that Europe needed strategic autonomy and he tried
6:57
to push for that. But, you know, Micron speaks a
7:01
lot, but, you know, does quite little unfortunately.
7:06
So that isn't what Europe on, on, on France is even haven't
7:13
moved in in that direction at all.
7:16
And in fact, you know, despite everything, even despite Trump,
7:23
I think many people in Europe today realises, they realise
7:27
Europe's predicament, how bad the strategic position is, but
7:35
they can't do otherwise than making it even worse.
7:40
So, for instance, you had this episode during the summer with
7:44
the, with the tariffs on this negotiation between between the
7:49
US and the on, on, on Europe around that and Europe basically
7:56
surrounded. So they signed up for a
8:01
tributary deal. It can be called like that where
8:04
they agreed to, you know, send a lot of money to, to the US, buy
8:10
an enormous amount of US energy, buy an enormous amount of US
8:16
weapons, a lot of things that will make them even more
8:19
dependent to the US. And, and I posted about
8:24
interviews with top European leaders where they understand
8:28
that it is a, a tributary deal. But they say, you know, not
8:32
doing it would have been even worse because we're, we would
8:35
have faced, you know, extremely strong retaliation by the US,
8:39
very strong pressure that, you know, would have been very bad
8:43
for, for us. So you know, you, you can, you
8:46
can argue that it's a lack of courage on it certainly is.
8:50
It's a lot of principles. It's it certainly is.
8:53
But that's, that's the dynamic. Basically they're, they're kind
8:56
of in, in, in their mind, they're kind of stuck and, and
9:01
there is no political courage to to basically take the US on.
9:07
That's that's what it is. Well, I understand inertia and a
9:13
lot of the bureaucratic polls from Atlantis organisation like
9:18
NATO, but what I always find puzzling is why the persistent
9:25
hostility among the European elite toward China like China
9:31
has, you know, they, they keep on portraying China as some sort
9:36
of security threat to Europe, which is preposterous because
9:39
China is on the opposite end of EUR Asian continent And, and
9:44
the, the, the most interaction China has with Europe is through
9:47
trade. But, but yet, you know, right
9:51
now there's a, there's a tendency to talk China through a
9:54
security lens and which, I mean, I'm guessing there's a lot of
10:00
Washington pressure behind that. But why, why did European
10:03
leaders go along with it? I I do not understand because
10:06
China is actually one of the biggest trading partner for EU
10:09
at the moment. Yeah.
10:11
I mean, you know, you're you're preaching to the choir.
10:14
So I've been saying this all along.
10:17
I think it's a very bad strategic colour and I think
10:23
that Europe, that's one of the ways in which it has actually
10:29
leverage, you know, it, it, it, it could tell the US that, you
10:37
know, China is an alternative. It could play that that sort of
10:40
pivot role where it says, you know, if if you don't give us
10:45
good terms, then we're going to go to China and sort of play one
10:48
against the other that that would be a good a sensible
10:54
strategic positioning for for Europe.
10:59
And in fact, you know, some European leaders at some point,
11:06
you know, said stuff along those lines, even surprisingly that
11:10
there is this organisation called I PAC, which is the
11:16
interperimentary alliance on China.
11:20
I was very surprised at some point this year you had one of
11:23
the leaders of I PAC in Europe say exactly that.
11:28
That's, you know, Europe will will go to China as as an
11:33
alternative to the US. It will be, you know, they would
11:38
play this, this pivot from when ipaq is one of the key anti
11:43
China organisations. So that was very surprising,
11:46
right. So it's clear that some of those
11:50
think along those lines, but others don't.
11:55
It seems that the lines of, of the others have won and I think
12:01
they're thinking, and you can summarise that from some stuff
12:06
that Macron has said at some point.
12:09
Macron said that he doesn't understand Trump that, you know,
12:17
for, for the US, the first objective should be, should be
12:21
China and Europe should be an ally for them in that regard.
12:27
So I think that's the positioning that's that one in,
12:32
in, in Europe trying to impress upon Trump that Europe is, is
12:41
not an enemy. It's an ally against China and
12:45
trying to, you know, basically keep the traditional, the
12:50
traditional positioning of we're on your side.
12:54
We're we're your best friends. You need to give us the best
12:57
conditions because we can help you in, in a number of ways,
13:03
which I think is the wrong core. Because, you know, knowing
13:06
Trump, what he sees is weakness. And on when Trump feels
13:12
weakness, according to his own declaration, he has no respect
13:17
for that. That's when he, he, he presses
13:21
for, you know, the world's conditions on which which is
13:24
exactly what we're seeing in, in all the deals that he's making
13:28
with, with Europe. Again, you know, on, on the, the
13:34
proposal that, that, that they made with regard to, to Ukraine,
13:40
it's extraordinary the how bad that is for, for Europe.
13:44
It's a great deal for the one that's, that the US proposes
13:49
great for the US. It's actually pretty good for
13:52
Russia too, because you know, the, the window territory there
13:56
is denazification in Ukraine, no NATO expansion.
14:02
So it's, it meets a lot of their initial requirements, but for
14:07
Europe it's, it's horrible. They need to bear all the costs
14:12
they and, and all the benefits go to the US, right?
14:18
So Europe has $300 billion of of Russian assets which are frozen
14:25
out of those 300 billion, 200 billion will go to giant US,
14:32
Russia investments, 100 billion will be used for Ukraine, but
14:38
50% of of that will go to the US.
14:41
So like nothing for Europe. So, yeah, that's that's why I
14:47
think this, this strategy is, you know, will end up being
14:52
extremely bad for, for Europe. But you know, we can only, we
14:57
can only witness that that's the one they've chosen,
15:01
unfortunately. Yeah, I'm really surprised how
15:03
badly Europe play this game. I mean, you know, way they play
15:07
worse than the Gulf Arab states. You know, you have you have
15:11
countries like Saudi Arabia who, as you say, exactly play the
15:15
China card. They, they, they are announcing
15:18
my, they're thinking about pricing the oil sale to China in
15:22
R&B and they're joining BRICS. And certainly Trump is courting
15:27
the Trump travel to the, the Gulf countries and then Trump
15:30
invite NBS to the White House, right?
15:33
And, and whereas Europe, the whole optics is just bad.
15:37
You have all those European leaders sitting like school
15:40
children in the White House waiting to be sculpted by, by
15:44
Trump and, and wanderling sitting there very demurely
15:48
while, while Trump is announcing Europe is going to pay, we're
15:52
going to make Europe pay. And she's positioned that as
15:56
some sort of diplomacy climatic victory because Europe only got
15:59
slapped with 20% tariff instead of 50% tariff.
16:03
So that's somehow that's a great deal.
16:05
I mean I, I, I mean I'm, I'm just flavoured.
16:09
Yeah. I, I, I, I think the Nixperia
16:12
case is actually extremely illustrative because it shows
16:16
that when Europe could have positioned it in a way where the
16:22
benefit from both sides. So the US and China, as per
16:28
their positioning, they basically get hit by both sides,
16:33
which is exactly what the next case is, right?
16:38
So I, I don't know, maybe we I can explain it a bit.
16:44
Yeah. So, So what happened is the US
16:51
basically introduced a new rule because the BIS 50% rule which
16:56
says that any company owned by a company sanctioned by by by the
17:06
US would itself be sanctioned, which was not the case before.
17:13
So for instance, so in in in this case, there is the Chinese
17:17
company called Wintech, which has been sanctioned by the US
17:21
since December last year. And they own that company in
17:27
Europe called Nixperia, which is a massive company.
17:31
It's 14,000 employees, most of them in Europe, very important
17:35
for Europe's industry because they provide the chips for the
17:42
European auto industry and also by the way, the a lot of the
17:46
American auto industry and other industries as well.
17:50
So it's a, it's a very strategically important company.
17:54
And so that new rule would have meant that Nix Paria would have
18:00
been on the US entity list, which means, you know, which is
18:06
very bad for them because they can't use the dollar, they can't
18:09
do any business with, with US persons and and so on and so
18:14
forth. But the Americans went to the
18:16
the Dutch because the company is based in Holland.
18:20
And they told them, we have a very easy solution for you.
18:24
You just need to steal the company away from the Chinese
18:28
and that will make you, you know, a Dutch company and
18:32
therefore you wouldn't be sanctioned.
18:35
And the Dutch, you know, stupidly chose to comply.
18:41
And so they invoked this World War 2 era law, which has which
18:48
had not been used since 1952, a law that basically allows you to
18:55
requisition, you know, strategic supplies during wartime.
18:59
They basically said Nixperia is strategic supplies and we
19:03
requisition it. What they hadn't thought about
19:08
is that 80% of Nixperia's chips are made in China.
19:15
And so obviously what is the first thing that China did is
19:18
OK. I mean, you see the the company
19:21
from us. So you know, say goodbye to the
19:23
chips, right? And you know, obviously that's
19:28
had tremendous consequences on the, on the European auto
19:32
industry. And, and then during the the
19:42
meeting that that she and, and Trump had in in Busan in South
19:48
Korea, Trump agreed to withdraw that BIS 50% through in exchange
19:57
for China withdrawing their rare earth export controls.
20:04
Which means that the Dutch were basically left holding the bag,
20:08
right, like they had stolen the company away from China for no
20:13
reason anymore. Because that food that's, you
20:17
know, they, they that had spelled this move was removed
20:23
by, by the US. So again, this is Europe
20:27
bearing, you know, all the costs both on the US side and the
20:33
Chinese side, you know, being basically in the theatre of of
20:37
both of those for, you know, entirely due to to their
20:42
positioning. So what I said right from the
20:45
start is Europe could have positioned itself as a
20:52
principled actor saying, you know, this is AUS
20:58
extraterrestrial law. We don't need to to apply it.
21:03
We actually, you know, have our own law.
21:06
European companies based in Europe need to need to respect
21:10
European law. They don't need to respect
21:12
American law. You know, Nixperia did.
21:14
So we're going to protect it. That would have granted it.
21:20
You know, that would have made Europe much more attractive to
21:25
companies from everywhere because now, you know, everyone
21:29
feels OK, like we're protected in Europe from from American
21:36
extraterritorial legislation. Those guys, you know, have, have
21:41
their own rule of law and so on. It's on, on.
21:44
They're strong enough to protect us.
21:46
And it would also have given them leverage, like a leverage
21:51
point against the US as well. So that would have been, you
21:54
know, a very good thing, good opportunity for Europe to assert
21:58
some form of strategic autonomy. But instead they bought them to
22:03
to the Americans, which made them which trigger this
22:08
reiteration from China. So, so they could have had a win
22:11
win, but the they went for lose, lose, which is basically what
22:17
Europe has done for, for the past, you know, 10-15 years.
22:21
It's, it's just, it's very depressing.
22:25
And afterwards, there was a recent interview with the Dutch
22:28
minister who authorised the seizure of Nesperia.
22:33
He said, well, given what we know, you know now, now Dutch
22:37
government is trying to hand over Nesperia back to China.
22:39
But he said in the interview, he said, given what we know, I, I
22:43
would do it again. I would I would do it again.
22:46
Like why, why would you even talk make statement like that?
22:50
But I don't want I don't like is he trying to speak to a
22:52
particular audience trying to show his loyalty to the United
22:57
States. I don't understand like why it
23:00
it just completely unnecessary. It seems to antagonise China in
23:05
that way you when there's already a chance foreclosure.
23:09
You know, now the Dutch is preparing to hand over Nesperia
23:13
and just have this put this matter behind us.
23:16
Why would he even give an interview, say, oh, given what
23:19
we know, I would do it again. I mean, it's just a is that is
23:23
that hubris? Is it arrogance?
23:25
What? What is it?
23:26
I think it's a mix of ego on on just stupidity on.
23:34
They don't understand what, what their, their words of what their
23:39
words, the consequences of, of, of their words.
23:43
And, and we keep seeing that all the time from European leaders.
23:46
So, you know, just recently you had mailed so to the German
23:52
Chancellor, you know, trigger a scandal in in Brazil because he
23:57
said that he was very happy to to leave Brazil and go back to
24:02
Germany because the place where he was in Brazil sucked, which I
24:09
mean, yeah, you just don't say those type.
24:12
Of course that's Brazil. And of course that's shooting
24:15
yourself in the foot, right? Because why would you do that?
24:18
It makes no sense. So it's just, yeah, they're not.
24:23
They're not, they're not thinking about about what
24:27
they're saying on the consequences for for Europe's
24:30
diplomatic position. Now I have another question for
24:33
you. As you know, you, you, I say
24:36
European yourself, why do European voters keep on putting
24:41
such leaders in the leadership position?
24:44
I mean, it seems like these guys don't even represent Europe's
24:48
interests. I mean, they haven't done a very
24:50
good job in the stewardship of the EU, but why?
24:54
Why aren't these guys keep on putting a, a, a a a position of
24:58
leadership where they keep on leading Europe like down the
25:02
Cliff? Yeah.
25:03
I mean, so first of all, you can only vote for people who are
25:09
candidates. And you know, when you look at
25:14
the candidates that are available, it's, it's basically
25:20
we have this expression in French, which is you need to
25:23
choose between the plague and cholera, right?
25:26
So it's like it's, it's, it's a bad choice versus a bad choice
25:29
of fun. So you, you try to choose for
25:32
the least, least bad one. And so, you know, in the last in
25:39
the last French election, it was a choice between Macron Le Pen.
25:43
You know, that's, that's not a great choice or, you know, you
25:47
have the choice between yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's a lot of
25:56
it's there was this expression at some point by a Tanzanian
26:01
president who said that in, in the US is a, is a one party
26:08
state. But in typical US exuberance,
26:12
they have two of them. So, so it's a bit, it's often
26:16
the same thing. Like you, you can choose between
26:21
multiple parties, but you know, the face, the faces change and
26:25
so on. But the policies will remain the
26:27
same nonetheless. One of the point that that's
26:33
worth mentioning is that those elections of foreign affairs
26:39
matters quite little. That's often the case in
26:43
elections everywhere. You know, you vote for people
26:47
based on domestic concerns. And so that's what the elections
26:54
are about most of the time about, you know, insecurity or
27:00
immigration or those type of stuff, which means also that
27:05
those leaders focus mostly on this and are quite uneducated
27:11
about, about the rest of the world, on how to behave with
27:15
the, with the external world, on the, you know, geopolitics, on
27:20
the, on so on and so forth. Most French leaders to date
27:25
didn't even speak English, for instance.
27:27
Like, you know, they're, they're really, really French.
27:32
I think my coin is the first one, if I'm not mistaken.
27:35
So yeah, there is this. They're, they're very used to
27:42
Europe, this mindset, they've grown up in it, they've been
27:45
educated in the European way of thinking and so on.
27:48
And they're not well travelled. They don't understand how the
27:52
rest of the world perceives them.
27:56
They don't understand how the rest of the world thinks.
28:00
This is extremely obvious when it comes to to China.
28:03
If you listen to what what the average French politician says
28:07
when it comes to China, it's absolutely obvious that they
28:10
don't understand the first thing about the the country.
28:13
It's, you know, cliche after cliche, the same thing you you
28:16
hear from completely uneducated people.
28:20
So yeah, that's just the the quality.
28:24
So it's a quality on the education issue.
28:26
Wow, I, I, I'm shocked at kind of similarity between Europe and
28:31
United States because you know, often we, we say your US is a
28:35
extremely parochial country. You know, people are not really
28:39
interested in things happening outside the US borders.
28:43
So and, and people are not well travelled very few, only a small
28:47
percentage you Americans held passport and most of the people
28:51
who had who did travel abroad went to Canada and Mexico, the
28:55
immediate neighbours. I was surprised you you describe
28:59
the same situation in Europe because at least in North
29:02
America it's thought that the European are a lot more worldly
29:06
and not more, you know, well travelled and and then more
29:10
cosmopolitan than United States. At least you guys speak multiple
29:13
languages right? Not like some monolingual
29:16
Americans. I I think in many cases it's
29:19
actually even worse in in in Europe than it is in the US.
29:24
I've lived in both countries. I think there is much more
29:28
openness in the US than in Europe to point of views from
29:34
other parts of the world, probably because the US is a
29:41
very multicultural country. And so that's it's in its DNA.
29:47
And so in some way to try to, you know, find common ground
29:51
between different cultures, that that's how it was built, whereas
29:55
that's not the case at all in, in Europe, right?
29:58
We're, we're very old cultures where if, if someone comes to
30:03
Europe, they need to adapt to us.
30:07
We don't adapt to them, right. So maybe it is the case on, on
30:13
it's, it's probably true that more Europeans have passports,
30:17
for instance, than than Americans and so on.
30:20
But the mindsets, I think is, is definitely more close minded.
30:25
I, I can, you can just see it in the media.
30:27
So there are some alternative medias in, in the US, actually
30:33
quite a lot like the, you know, the grey zone or drop site or
30:38
those people who are, you know, just there is freedom of speech
30:45
in that regard and they understand the rest of the world
30:49
and so on. In in France, it's, it's, it's,
30:53
it's almost non existent. I mean, there are maybe a
30:56
couple, but as soon as you say something, you know, that
31:00
slightly deviates from the overturn window, it's it's a
31:05
massive scandal. So, you know, recently you had,
31:12
you had a French politician who said something, she said that
31:18
China is not a dictatorship. She's a French MP.
31:22
She said that the interview China is not a dictatorship,
31:28
which you know, even if you disagree with that, I happen to
31:32
agree with it. But even if you disagree with
31:35
that, why should should it be shocking, right?
31:39
Like anyone can have, can have their opinion, but that created
31:44
a a national scandal in France. Like all the media started to to
31:48
speak about that, how scandalous it was heretical to say that
31:53
China was not a dictatorship and so on.
31:57
You know, she's basically, you know, the black sheep now.
32:02
So, so that's kind of the, the mindset we have.
32:05
We have, I think for a very, very long time.
32:08
This is not new in, in Europe, You know, we're a bit similar to
32:13
the way we used to be during the Inquisition.
32:16
You know, you, you have this period of European history, the
32:19
Inquisition, where anyone was slightly deviated from religious
32:24
orthodoxy, was a heretic and they were burnt at the stake and
32:29
so on. This remains very strong in
32:32
European culture that there is this orthodoxy when it comes to,
32:38
to the thinking the, the, the mainstream mindsets.
32:42
And it's much more heretical in Europe than it is in the US to
32:46
slightly deviate from it on the, you know, the social
32:50
consequences for, for you are, are very, very bad.
32:54
Which is why, by the way, I actually tweet in English and
32:57
not in French. I'm much more comfortable in
32:59
French. That's, that's my language, but
33:04
I feel more free to express myself on my topics in English
33:08
to, to an English audience than I would be to a French audience,
33:12
because I know that's what I'm saying will simply be, you know,
33:17
too scandalous for France. Wow, I'm actually surprised by
33:22
that because I always thought because I've been lived in
33:25
China, in United States, I always thought US is way too
33:30
ideological compared to China. Like I feel like China move into
33:34
a post ideological phase after the end of Cultural Revolution,
33:39
but the US has gone in the opposite direction.
33:41
Like I feel like today's US is very, very much ideological of,
33:47
you know, there's, there's always that, that deep impulse
33:51
to spread Americanism. I see you all across the globe.
33:57
It's a same evangelical impulse that existed before.
34:01
There's a kind of kind of the, the, the, the, the, the, that's
34:04
a part of the American Protestant Protestant heritage.
34:08
But now instead of spreading gospel and, and, and then
34:11
Christianity, now United States try to spread the so called
34:15
universal value. But we all know it's not really
34:17
universal. It's really just American values
34:20
and they try to impose that on everyone.
34:23
So I'm I'm surprised to hear that it's even worse in Europe.
34:26
Actually quite shocked. Yeah.
34:28
I mean, I mean, I, I actually agree to a large extent with
34:33
you, but I think that's slowly dying in the US So I think Trump
34:38
represents the end of that, of that.
34:42
You know, Trump is anything but the liberal international value
34:49
type, I think it's fair to say, right?
34:53
And I think the Americans are starting to understand that that
35:00
actually did them a lot of harm to try to, you know, spread
35:07
their mudder around the world and so on, because simply people
35:10
don't want it, right? Like China doesn't want it,
35:13
Russia doesn't want it. All the big countries, Africa
35:18
doesn't want it. They want to keep their culture,
35:21
which is normal that there's just, you know, you don't want,
35:25
you don't want to be converted to, to something that that
35:30
doesn't feel natural. And so in, in a way, a big part
35:34
of the, the reason behind the emergence of the multipolar
35:39
world is this is this, this reaction to being positioned by
35:46
the US of, of, of this framework.
35:48
Like everyone would have been, I think, happy to live in a world
35:54
where the US is a major power, but a power that doesn't try to
36:01
impose things that you don't want, right?
36:05
That would have been a comfortable world for everyone.
36:08
Like China would have been happy with that.
36:10
Like, you know, just let me live my life, right?
36:14
But they didn't choose to do that.
36:16
And as such, there is this this kind of rebellion which leads to
36:25
to to a multicolar world. And so I think the US is
36:29
starting to understand that. And, you know, Trump is not
36:32
pushing for for that at all. Is, is, is all about, you know,
36:36
pure cynicism and doesn't care about values and so on, which
36:41
has its own issues, but but it's a different thing.
36:46
Whereas Europe, they're very much stayed in that they still
36:50
view the world in, in, in a very missionary way where they're
36:55
like, we have the, the best values on the, you know, any we,
37:02
we have, you know, we only engage positively with like
37:07
minded partners. I mean, all, all the rhetoric
37:09
that we used to hear from the US, they're still very present
37:12
in, in Europe. So they haven't moved on at all
37:17
so far. I don't see many politicians in
37:20
in Europe who who are moving on that they are still in that
37:24
mindset. What's a European political
37:29
class plan are are they just trying to wait out Trump, trying
37:33
to hopefully for like a return to a pre Trump America for like,
37:38
you know, somebody more like Biden or, or Obama who talk
37:42
about transatlantic partnership and, and you know, like alliance
37:47
of democracy and, and all that all that good stuff.
37:50
Or, or or they're just trying to, I don't know, survive?
37:54
Survive the Trump era. What?
37:58
What What are your take? I think it's very hard to
38:00
discern a coherent strategy from from Europe, to be honest,
38:07
especially because when you're talking about Europe, you know,
38:12
what are you even talking about? There is this famous quote from
38:17
Kissinger, which is Europe like, who do I call?
38:21
Right? Who do you call?
38:23
Do you call van der Leyen? But you know, half the European
38:27
leaders hate her on anywhere. I spare Europe's own treaties.
38:33
She has no say in, in, in, in, in foreign affairs when it comes
38:39
to. So you know, that's no, no one
38:43
would say she represents Europe. The UK Macron is on one line.
38:47
The UK mercy is on the slightly different line, actually much
38:51
more US friendly than than Macron.
38:54
So I think that is, you know, very much part of the of the
38:58
prime as per the way Europe is. It's, it's very, very difficult
39:06
to have a coherent strategy emerge because there is no
39:11
figure or, or, or or no structure to to, to, to make it
39:19
arise. It's, it's all, it's all
39:22
conflicts on the. And so you, you, you end up
39:26
arriving at, you know, the, the, the lowest common denominator
39:30
sort of like it's, it's, it's, it's, it's basically some sort
39:40
of compromise. That's your strategy, some sort
39:44
of compromise that everyone dislikes.
39:47
But that's, you know, is that they can sort of live with which
39:56
at the end of the day ends up being more of the same, right?
40:00
No change because everyone is on a different plane.
40:04
So that's that's very much the core of the issue.
40:08
I would. Say, as a European person who
40:12
have spent significant time in China and quite familiar, I
40:17
would say you're quite familiar with Chinese culture and and and
40:22
and politics. How do you think EU and China
40:26
relationship should develop? I mean, like what?
40:30
What is your ideal European Chinese relationship should look
40:36
like? I mean, what I've always said is
40:39
that first of all, the most important first step is mutual
40:45
understanding. And I think China understands
40:51
Europe fairly well. China spends an enormous of
40:58
time, amount of time educating itself on the world.
41:01
And they have, you know, when you meet the Chinese diplomats,
41:07
you always like as per their education system for diplomats,
41:13
they speak the local language of the country where they're,
41:16
they're posted. They've studied the, the
41:18
cultures. So, you know, the Chinese
41:20
ambassador in France expresses himself in French.
41:25
He studied French culture. So he gets the culture.
41:29
But there is no equivalent in Europe, right?
41:35
There are remarkably little Europeans even in the in the
41:41
diplomatic world who understand China who speak Chinese.
41:47
I don't think like I met the French ambassador to, to China,
41:52
for instance, he doesn't speak Chinese.
41:55
So yeah, that's, that's the first step.
42:00
If you want to deal with with China, you first need to
42:03
understand that because otherwise you, you base your
42:07
action on an illusion of what China is instead of, of the real
42:14
China. And I think this is one of the
42:21
important moves that we're going to see as a multipolar world
42:24
arises. I've, I've actually studied
42:28
quite a bit the, what the multipolar world used to look
42:32
like when we used to have one in, in like the 16th, 17th
42:37
century. Back in those days, you know,
42:40
China was very powerful, as it has always been almost in, in
42:44
history. It's only after the industrial
42:46
Revolution that, you know, you had the century of formation.
42:49
China was very weak concerned, and then you had the West emerge
42:54
as really dominant in the world. That wasn't the case before in
42:59
in history. And so before, when China was
43:03
very strong, you had I, I read a lot of books of, you know,
43:10
Jesuit missionaries, for instance.
43:12
We went to China. What I'm struck with when I read
43:16
them is that there is none of that ideology that you have
43:21
today where you know, they, they qualify China in, in, in very
43:27
judgmental ways and so on. There is genuine attempt to
43:31
understand them on why because China was so powerful.
43:36
So when someone is powerful, you cannot submit them.
43:40
You cannot say you know, you need to do what I say.
43:45
You can only convince them of something.
43:49
And so to convince someone, you need to understand where they
43:54
come from, right? If you can't, if you can't
43:57
dictate, dictate what they should do.
44:00
You need to convince them. And in order to convince them,
44:03
you need to to understand them. And I think this is a key
44:08
requirement in a multi polar world.
44:10
China is not too powerful to dictate anything to them.
44:16
And so you need to convince them or in order to convince them,
44:20
you need to understand them. So my advice, consistent advice
44:26
to Europe is invest an enormous amount of resources in
44:31
understanding China so you can have a relationship where you
44:36
know if if you need to push your interest, you need, you can
44:39
convince the Chinese. So that's, that's the first
44:44
step, but you know, it's, we're far from it unfortunately.
44:50
Yeah, why, why do you think that that is?
44:52
Why is there such a in curiosity, you know, given that
44:58
today EU and China has such important trade relationship,
45:01
you know, given the, the, the enormity of the trade volumes
45:04
that flows from China to Europe and vice versa.
45:08
Why is then there's so much not, not as many people interested in
45:15
finding out what is going on in the opposite end of the Eurasia,
45:19
you know, the world's most important economy.
45:22
Like I, I mean, I, I, I should ask the same question to, to, to
45:27
United States. But you know, we are, we, I
45:28
think we all know the answer because US Americans are usually
45:33
too, too self absorbed in their own country and, and, and their
45:36
own problems. But my question is for you as a
45:39
European, why? Why do you think there is that?
45:42
I mean, I understand why Chinese would have learned more about
45:46
Europe or United States because, as you said, because of power
45:50
imbalance, because, you know, the European power came to
45:52
China's shores. So so ever since China has
45:56
trying to learn what made Europe leapfrog China and and they
46:02
tried to, you know, make sure China does not fall behind
46:05
again. So what?
46:07
But why? Why is there such a in curiosity
46:10
about China when China is becoming more ever more
46:14
important and there's or Europe's one of the largest
46:18
trading? Partners.
46:19
Yeah. So I mean, I, I think it's the
46:21
legacy of arrogance. In fact, China used to be the
46:25
same in in many ways. And and that was one of the
46:28
reasons of it's it's downfall arguably during the the Qing
46:33
dynasty where there was that level of arrogance where they
46:37
were they knew they were very powerful.
46:40
And so they didn't need to know the the rest of the world.
46:43
And you know, lo and behold, you had actually the West that had
46:47
become also very powerful on the on because China didn't
46:50
understand them then, then they got beaten on.
46:56
You know, that's, that's why China right now is, is very keen
47:00
not to make this mistake again. And, and they invest so much in,
47:04
in understanding others, understanding the, the world in
47:08
which we, we live in. Well, I think it's much the same
47:12
dynamic in in the West, in Europe, you know that they've
47:17
been dominant in the world. I'm Speaking of the West in
47:21
general for ever since the industrial revolution, so for
47:26
like 250 years or so. And so there is that that legacy
47:32
of we have no need to understand others because we're so used to,
47:37
to submit them. So in my own education in
47:41
France, I was not told at all the the history of the rest of
47:46
the world. Like I knew nothing about China,
47:49
literally nothing. I don't think I, I was ever told
47:52
about any part of China's history in, in my education.
47:57
I knew nothing about, you know, Africa and so on.
48:01
It's, it's purely Europe centric.
48:03
It's like we hold the truth on the all the rest.
48:08
The rest of the world is we eventually either they've
48:15
adopted or modelled, in which case is good.
48:17
Either they haven't, in which case you know, they're they're
48:21
mistaken and they eventually where that's kind of the the
48:25
mindset. So it's, it's a whole mindset
48:29
to, to change on that that takes a very, very long time.
48:33
I mean, in China's case it took one century, the century of
48:38
humiation. Arno, are you?
48:40
Are you saying that the West need its own set century of
48:44
humiliation before they learn the lessons?
48:49
I mean, I'm saying it's, it's, it's no, no, I, I, I think
48:54
unfortunately it's, it's part of cycles, right in history where
49:01
you sort of you, you have this saying like strong men create
49:08
good times, good times create weak men, weak men, weak men
49:12
create hard times on the on so on and so forth.
49:15
So we're in the weak men era and we need to have hard times in
49:20
order to, you know, eat or handle pie and and sort of
49:25
understand how to create good times again.
49:28
Oh, this fascinating conversation.
49:30
You know I can geek out on this with you for hours.
49:34
Is there anything else you like to talk to my audience about,
49:38
whether on Europe or or or China?
49:41
Yeah, sure. I mean, maybe something I was
49:44
writing just before this girl. I think it's quite interesting
49:50
to see the way US, China relations are evolving.
49:57
So you had a curl between Trump and XI yesterday, yesterday,
50:03
China time, maybe it's still today, US time.
50:06
I don't know where basically she she in in the transcript, in the
50:16
Chinese transcript is reframing the China US relation as World
50:23
War Two partners. Like we are partners.
50:27
We need to uphold, you know, the World War 2 consensus like we
50:33
were the victors of World War 2 and we need to, you know, keep
50:38
that partnership going. So there is a on both sides, on
50:42
both the Chinese side and the American side, there is a
50:45
reframing of the, of the relationship.
50:49
On the American side, you have the, you know, G2 framing by, by
50:55
Trump. So I, I find this very, very
50:58
interesting. And I think it's also a missed
51:02
opportunity again, for Europe because and also when it comes
51:09
to Russia, by the way, like Trump is starting to improve
51:13
relations with Russia, which you know, is probably great for
51:17
American interests, good for Russian interests as well.
51:21
The relationship with China is being reframed as well.
51:26
You have more positive language from both sides, from the
51:29
Chinese side and the and the American side.
51:34
And the Europeans again are left like behind, Like why would the,
51:40
which is kind of crazy because, because it was mostly about
51:46
China, US, right? That's where the main antagonism
51:50
was. And so it was a a good
51:53
opportunity for for for for Europe to sort of, you know, get
51:59
ahead of that and say, OK, we are China's friends.
52:03
And so, you know, the the Americans are kind of left on
52:07
their own right. And you have the horror for
52:10
Eurasia sort of being friend that that could have been a good
52:14
a good thing from the European interest and pain.
52:17
But because the DM jump on this opportunity, you know, Trump is
52:21
doing that before Europeans and Europeans are sort of left as
52:24
this appendage to to Eurasia that is that no one likes like
52:30
Trump doesn't like them anymore. Russia doesn't like them.
52:33
China are like, yeah, like you're you're weirdly
52:36
antagonistic to us. We don't get it.
52:38
Like, why? So yeah, I find this just, it's
52:46
a shame basically from from the Europe standpoint.
52:49
The Japanese actually had the term for it when Nixon first
52:53
visited China back in the 70s. They call it a Nixon shock
52:57
because the Japanese leadership were left completely in the dark
53:00
when Nixon and Kissinger reframed the Sino American
53:05
relationship. So they launched their own
53:07
diplomatic offensive to improve their ties with China after
53:12
that. But I, I don't know, I don't, I
53:14
don't expect too much from the European leadership at this
53:17
point. We'll have to wait and see.
53:21
But this is, this is an absolutely fascinating
53:24
conversation I'm having with you.
53:27
And I look forward to have you on my show again, because this
53:31
is a recurring thing on whether Europe can one day achieve
53:36
strategic autonomy and be a one of the pull of the multipolar
53:40
world. You know, everybody, including
53:43
China is looking to Europe to take take a stronger stand.
53:46
But so far there's a lot of disappointment.
53:49
But this is a developing story we'll all keep.
53:52
We all are keeping our eyes on it.
53:54
And Europe is, you know, it's still, despite all its problems
54:00
and Despite that it's currently being cannibalised by United
54:04
States for its own goods, it's still remain a very important
54:07
part of the world and the very important part of the world
54:11
economy. This is why others have expect,
54:15
you know, European leaders to finally grow a spine.
54:18
But we'll have to see whether that that happens or not.
54:21
So for people who want to reach you or want to follow you on
54:25
social media, where would they go?
54:27
Arnold? So on Twitter I'm Arno Bertrand,
54:31
so you you can probably see my name and on sub stack where I'm
54:37
under my name as well. OK.
54:39
So, so do you, do you have more thought like do you feel like
54:41
you, your, your content is getting more readership on on,
54:46
on on Twitter or or sub stack nowadays?
54:49
Well, definitely Twitter. I I I have an average about 100
54:55
million views a month on Twitter which is quite a lot, whereas on
55:02
sub stack it's, I don't know, not even 1 million or something.
55:08
I mean, 1,000,000 is a large, no large number.
55:10
I mean, congratulations. And you, you well deserve it
55:14
because you actually take the time to write out this long form
55:18
Twitter post, which, you know, I really appreciate because there
55:22
you, you took your time and and, and, and, and to, to put these
55:27
in simple language that everybody could understand.
55:32
And, and, and a very important topic as well.
55:34
You know, usually you write on. The thank you so much and it's
55:38
in a way all your legacy because I think you were the first one
55:42
to actually take a stance on, on Twitter, on the, on all of that
55:47
to to be more to try to push a better understanding of of
55:51
China. So you're the the original
55:57
products on the on world comes followers in a way.
56:03
I, I, I'm just a ship poster online.
56:06
I have to, I have to make that disclaimer.
56:08
You know, I, I, I most of most of the time post ship posting on
56:12
on Twitter, just fun for me. But you, you reading your post
56:15
is actually educational. So I urge everybody to to check
56:19
out Arnold Bertrand on, on Twitter and, and go check out
56:23
his sub stack. You know, he's, he's, he's, this
56:26
is where he explored his thoughts in, in, in depth on the
56:31
issue of Europe, China and US relationship, you know, in, in
56:36
our fast changing world. Again, thank you Arnold, for
56:39
making your time to, to speak to us.
56:42
I look forward to have this conversation with you again in
56:45
the future. Thank you, me too.