Latest / Arctos x Teddy Sin - Coffee Break, Market Take / 27/10/2026 Tue - A good Monday is not a good week
Transcript
- This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice. Good morning. Teddy here. It's Tuesday, the twenty-seventh of October. Let me start with a feeling most of us know. You see a green Monday, and something in your chest relaxes. Okay, the worst is over. I've felt that many times. And many times, it was the quiet before the loud part. This week, the loud part has a date. Actually, it has three. But first, what happened on Monday. Anthropic, the AI company, filed to list its shares on the Nasdaq, under the ticker A N T. The market liked that very much. The Nasdaq closed up 0.82 percent, at about 26,169. The S&P 500 rose 0.70 percent. The Dow added 0.28 percent, after dropping 1.2 percent on Friday. Nvidia gained around 2.4 percent, and Microsoft around 1.5 percent. Not everything was green. Meta fell about 2 percent, after saying it plans to raise up to 95 billion dollars for AI infrastructure. So the market is still asking the same question it asked last week. All this spending on AI. When does it pay back? That question gets tested very soon. Microsoft and Alphabet report their results after the US close on Wednesday. Amazon and Intel follow on Thursday. Watch what they say about capital spending. That is the number the market cares about most. Now, topic two. The Fed. The Federal Reserve announces its decision at two in the morning, Malaysia time, on Thursday. Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at two thirty. Almost nobody expects a change this week. The range is expected to stay at 3.75 to 4 percent. The market prices only around an 8 to 10 percent chance of a hike. So why does it matter? Because of December. Futures markets show a high chance of a hike in December. And the US 10-year yield is sitting near 5 percent. It was around 4.98 percent on Monday afternoon. When yields are that high, every word from the Fed chair gets louder. One sentence about December can move the Nasdaq, the Dow, small caps, gold and Bitcoin, all on the same night. Topic three. Oil. Oil is still above 100 dollars a barrel. On Monday, Brent was trading around 115 dollars, down about 1.35 percent. WTI was around 101 dollars, down about 2 percent. Prices eased on hopes of talks with Iran. Qatari mediators went to Tehran on Sunday, and officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were set to follow. But at the same time, the Houthis said they hit pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. So you have peace hopes pulling one way, and attacks pulling the other. That's what two-way pressure looks like. And Israel holds an election today, which may affect the timing of any new fighting with Iran. Topic four, closer to home in Asia. The Nikkei closed 0.80 percent lower on Monday, at about 62,190. That's three losing days in a row. The yen sits around 156.8 per US dollar. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday, around eleven in the morning Malaysia time. A hold at 1.25 percent is expected. Hong Kong did better. The Hang Seng closed 0.51 percent higher. Korea's Kospi fell 1.46 percent. And here in Malaysia, the KLCI closed 0.45 percent lower at 1,604, dragged by utilities and banks. Palm oil futures fell too. The November contract ended down 29 ringgit, at 4,558 ringgit a tonne, on worries that inventories are building up. So let me put the week together. Thursday is the heavy day, Malaysia time. The Fed before dawn. Big Tech results around breakfast. And US inflation data, core PCE plus third quarter GDP, at eight thirty at night. Three big catalysts inside about 48 hours. Then the Bank of Japan on Friday morning. Here's what I'd ask you to do. Three things. First, read the pressure, not the headline. A green Monday tells you the mood. It doesn't tell you the week. Second, check your own chart. Candles. Direction. Momentum. If your chart doesn't agree with the story, trust the chart. Third, size your risk for a wider week than usual. Smaller positions. Stops where your chart says, not where hope says. If one bad night costs you a meal, you'll be fine. If it costs you a month, the position was too big. And remember, sitting out is also a position. Some of the best trades I never lost money on were the ones I didn't take. This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss. Size your risk before any trade. Survive first. See you tomorrow.