Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / I warned you THIS would happen… + Stock Market News 26 April 2024

Transcript

I warned you THIS would happen… + Stock Market News 26 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: knew this was going to happen.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: I knew the buybacks would come and save us.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: I knew Google and Microsoft well.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: At least Microsoft would do the right thing, and I think he's right.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: He had to lie down.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: He did a lot of work this week and what's actually happening here?
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand A, of course, earnings that's important, but I also want you to understand the bigger picture here.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: And there is a bigger picture and if you understand that, you'll probably be the best informed investor out there.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: And I'm just having to refresh our little stream here.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Okay, brilliant, I can see you.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think we were waiting.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: No, we're probably alive.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Okay, fantastic, good morning everybody.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: King, my condolences, very sorry to hear that.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you tuning in and sharing with us.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I've got a few things for you today.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: It's a bright and bushy-eyed day today.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: One, we're finally doing that training that Europeans and Brits can attend, because you guys have been pestering me and I tend to listen.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I aim to listen at least.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: So, saturday, 4 am Eastern time.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: If you live in New York, no, but this one is for the Brits and Europeans.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Actually, if you're in Asia, this also works.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: It's 10 am London time tomorrow, saturday.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: So it means even you wage slaves can come and join us and I'll teach you my whole trading system, the whole thing, how simple it is, how we automate it.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: We, my whole trading system, the whole thing, how simple it is, how we automate it.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: We run through some actual trades together and you walk away with that knowledge and you can do with that as you please, obviously, but I think it'll be an eye-opener.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: So come and join me there tomorrow.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Links down below felixrensonorg slash training.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: We've also made for you the benchmark of all benchmarks, for every Russell 2000 stock, just wanted, for every Russell 2000 stock.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I just wanted to update it because we've had a lot of data out since the last one.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: You can download this for free.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Links also down below felixfriendsorg slash Russell.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: What you should do is click on File, make a copy.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Now you have your own copy.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: You can do whatever you want with it, and I'll just set the filters for you.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Not everybody knows how to do that necessarily.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: So now filters are set and you can now click on any of the headlines and sort by it, filter by it and so on, so you can see the companies with the best margins and the best profits and the best you know, everything else.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So check that out.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: That's hopefully going to provide some serious value for you.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: I've prepared a few things for you that I want to run through.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: But first, I like that Middle England Google earnings.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Were they good?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Were they great?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Were they stellar?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Were they exciting?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Did anybody tune into it?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Well, search advertising up 14%.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: That's pretty staggering.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Youtube up 21%.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Youtube says thank you to you for your likes and for tuning in and everything else.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Google Play up 18% in cloud and that's the biggie here 28% up, because that's sort of where we see the future in a sense of Google growth.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So, revenue overall all 13%, sorry.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: 15% up.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Gross profit margin improving 2% to 58%.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Operating profits up.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Net profit margins are up less spend on R&D, less spend on bondage, less spend on G&A didn't really catch that&M.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: And look at this revenue from cloud.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you could draw a straight line in terms of growth, that would be it right.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So they're doing really, really well there and they are now actually making money from it, because it takes a while to build this up.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: It's the first time.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Well, not the first time, but now we've had.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Last quarter was also very good, but this one.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very nice to see the consistency there.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So they are doing a good job at Google.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Now Microsoft the lovies at Microsoft, yeah, look at that.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Everything up server Office, gaming, windows, linkedin all of that up too.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: So that's very, very good, improving their margins a little bit more Gross profit margin at 70%, therefore the quarter and also cutting some costs where they can.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: So there's a reason why the market is looking like this this morning.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Google up 12%, amazon in the green.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Why.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Why is Amazon up?
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Because Google Cloud Business gives an indication.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Amazon's cloud business is probably also going to do quite well.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Microsoft's up.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Tesla is a little down.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I'll explain in a second why that is.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is in the green, apple bouncing back into the green.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: And, yeah, meta report here 27% more revenue, beating revenue guide.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Fastest growing FANG stock out there out of NVIDIA Margins are amazing.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: App users are up 7% year on year and look at this, they will have 600,000 GPUs by the end of the year.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Tesla told us they'll have 35,000.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: So the meta supercomputer is going to be like insane, insane.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: So Zook thinks big, which we like.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: I like it.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: And groupies we have groupies.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Good morning um for everybody.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think we have any groupies other than winston, obviously, uh, family.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Daily active people that's a weird word, isn't it?
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: But yeah, 3.2 billion people use meta apps daily.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: That's half the world, isn't it Pretty much?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you excluded those who struggle to get access to internet and power, it's probably more than half the world.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So anybody who says nobody uses Facebook anymore, get out a cricket bat and hit them over the head with this, please, because it's nonsense.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: 3.24 billion people use meta apps daily.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I know there's IG in it and so on, but all right.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So let's look at a bit of a bigger picture thing here.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: If you want to buy an S&P ETF, first of all I'd say, if you've never invested before, okay, go for it.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: But then realize you're going to get average returns.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Who the heck wants?
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Average Average sucks, right.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Average life, average car, average house, average spouse sucks, but it's better than living on the street.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: So it's a step up.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: But then the next step is how to make it smarter.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Well, this is something that would be smarter An S&P 500 buyback ETF.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Find one.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: I'm sure there are plenty out there, because the difference in returns between if you started in 1994 and you bought the buyback stocks well, you would have gone up a lot If you'd bought just the S&P.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: You would have gone up just a bit.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: See how scientific we are on this channel.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: This is a lot.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: This is a little, but in all seriousness, yeah, focus on the good stocks.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Buyback stocks tend to be fairly good ones.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: And where are we today?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Actually, I prepared some stuff today, so you can obviously ask me questions on any other stock as well.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the S&P here and these are screen grabs from optionswatchio, links also down below what do you see?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Well, can you see that green bar there and I'm going to need a thinner pen, I think, because I've zoomed in so much this green bar.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: There is what it's what we call the call wall.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: You see that?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Am I blocking that with my enormous head Ever so slightly?
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: There we are, and that's resistance.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: It's hard to break through.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: It sits at 5,100.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: And what also sits just slightly above 5,100, at about 5,150.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: That yellow line there at 5150 is the 50 day moving average.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: That's also resistance.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So it's going to be somewhat challenging to break through 5100, 5150 here today, this morning and throughout the day.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: We want to have a look at futures.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Is the future still bright and green?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I think it is.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: But let's have a look at, yes, which are the S&P futures, why we're at 5117.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Free market let's have a look.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: And I'm saying that essentially, 5.150 is going to be the really tough nut to crack, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end the day at 5.150, 5.100, actually, I kind of wouldn't be surprised if we don't come back down a little bit just because of that great big set of core wall there for the S&P.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Vladimir, nice to see you.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Do you still buy Fundsmith?
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: I do, actually, yes, I do.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I do still buy Fundsmith NASDAQ.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: What have you got on here?
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Well, you've got call walls here in that sort of 436 to 440 range.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So that's resistance and support kicks in down here at 419.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: So we've got that kind of zone Again.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: I think cracking through the 436, 440 is going to be somewhat challenging and if you look at pre-market, don't even need futures for that.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: We are trading at 428 right now.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Did we try to go much higher?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: We once went up here into the 430s?
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think the 435, 436 is going to be the lid on the party today, at least that's my opinion.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: And then SOX, which is an index that tracks SOX manufacturers around the world.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: No, it's semiconductors.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Sox is a big ETF.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: The trend is still down right, the trend's still pretty negative.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: And then you've got here two moving averages.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: You've got in yellow the 21, sorry, the yellow.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: You've got the 50 day and then in blue you've got the 20 day moving averages and they're all lingering around just sort of below 220.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: So I would say 220 is going to be a little bit on the party of the the semiconductors.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Tesla I've actually written it out for you how to crack the 170 to 175 resistance, and this is stuff that I look at when I trade, which is again options watch.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: See the green bars there.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: That's resistance, right.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: 170, 175.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Where are we trading pre-market, but down ever so slightly against the trend at 169.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Because 170 is hard to crack and 170 also acts as a magnet.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Because you got support at 170 and resistance at 170.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: You see you're kind of stuck at 170, probably right.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So that's that's one thing.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: And any other stocks you care about?
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Palantir?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, this is an interesting one.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Actually.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: That was the Tesla stock chart For all you Palantards.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Um, no, it's the wrong chart.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'll show you inside, inside here.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: So Palantir for today has resistance here $22, $23, support at Surprise, surprise, maybe have a line.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: We're trading in that zone right Now.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: These expire today, and what does that mean After today?
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: So come Monday, the new resistance is $25, which is way, way, way, way, way higher than what we had previously.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: And that's a good thing, you might think.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Brilliant.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: The stock can finally rally to the moon.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: But we're also losing the support.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So actually, the correct way to look at this would be it's just going to get a lot more volatile next week, and I think that's something to bear in mind.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Can you make money out of that?
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, sure you can.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Does Winston date other dogs?
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I have not seen him on dates, but he does have a lot of friends, both male and female.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Perhaps he's flexible, I don't know.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Winston, do you date other dogs?
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Hang on, let's ask him.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Let's ask him.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Winston, is there anybody you're dating?
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Here's a nose.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: It's all you can make out.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: I think he pretty much loves everybody who's willing to chew his ears and have his ears chewed in return, which is pretty much the way he rolls.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Does Goop pay a dividend?
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Yes, they do now.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: And no, yes, they do now.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: They are now dividend paying officially.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Do you expect good earnings for Palantir?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Not particularly.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: No, I think management just doesn't care about shareholders in the short term.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: They just care about making the best product and getting it out there and they know eventually it'll pay.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: And that's just because these guys ultimately have a venture capital mindset.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: And I think it took me a while to kind of realize why are they so weird?
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: And I think the reason they are so freaking weird is that's just the way they think.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: What does venture capital do?
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Right, you build a company, you give the software or the product away for free.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: That's how Facebook started, for example, right.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: And then once everybody uses it and once everybody loves it, you start charging for it in some way, and that's pretty much what Palantir is doing.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: It's a bit weird for a company that's been around that long, but those guys are pretty weird.