Thinking Traps 5/8: Their Book Was Due in 2 Years. It Took 8 (The Outside View)

Tales of Life: Ordinary People, Extraordinary True Stories · Nov 3, 2026 · 5m

Thinking Traps, lesson 4 of 7: the outside view. In the 1970s Daniel Kahneman's team agreed their new school textbook would take about two years. Then he asked an expert on the team how other teams like theirs had done. About 40% never finished, he said, and the rest took seven to ten years. The book took eight, and was never used. You'll learn the difference between the inside view and the outside view, why the Sydney Opera House opened ten years late and cost $102 million instead of $7 million, and three steps to predict your own plans more honestly.

Chapters:(00:00) Two years, said the…