Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - I have amazing (and painful) news + Stock Market News 18 July 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - I have amazing (and painful) news + Stock Market News 18 July 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Wall Street just sent an analysis to their biggest customers that they did not send to you.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Why not?
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Because the high value information is reserved for Wall Street's finest and biggest.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: I believe that you and I deserve the same level of information and skills as those buggers on Wall Street.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: And if you agree with me on that right, I agree in the chat down below and keep watching, because I'm going to walk you through the key takeaways from Morgan Stanley's quant team, which is essentially warning us about what's about to happen in the next two to four weeks.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: First of all, they point out that we're up 25% since the sort of bottom of the dip, which is absolutely stunning, and then they warn us that stock performance is usually weak going into August.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: If you're wondering where the heck I am, I just landed in Switzerland seeing my oldest friends for the day, and if you look at the little chart I'm going to insert here I'm going to ask my editor to insert these charts for you so you can see them you can see that stock performance usually slows down halfway through July, and then all that happens in August.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Why is that?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Well, people are on the holiday.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: That's sort of simply that, and you might therefore be thinking well.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: There are a few more key data points I want to show you.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: You might therefore be thinking well, maybe I should therefore start selling stuff, maybe I should exit, maybe I should take profits, maybe I should just also go on holiday, or maybe I should be buying the dip.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: That's about to happen, and they're all very good questions, and if you really want to understand, as I enter a spooky tunnel, what is the right decision, not just in this moment, but also in every other moment, because the guys on wall street, they don't wake up in the morning and they go what should I buy yourself today?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: No, they actually have a system, and it's the same system that I learned from my mentors and I'm going to teach it to you guys, if you wish, completely for free, on Saturday at 10 am, new York time.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: All you got to do is go to phoenixtransitorg, slash training and grab yourself a free seat, and you'll be one of probably a thousand plus people who are going to.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: You're going to really change the way they think and worry about investing, because the worrying part is something we can get rid of very, very easily.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: So the question, then, is what happens next?
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Well, we're about to enter, or we're kind of in the middle of a very, very significant blackout window and that means there are no buybacks.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Buybacks are the big companies buying their own stocks, which is one of the biggest supporters out there for the market and that's about to go away, right.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: But you can also see on the chart that, from sort of 20th of July onwards, that actually improves again, so that money is going to come back and that'll be a big and beautiful support for where we're going.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: On top of that, despite retail demand actually slowing which is true, it's still strong, but it's slowing and again, because people are going on holiday and they probably have to pay for the summer vacations and that kind of thing Hedge funds are lagging behind.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: If you look at this chart I put on the screen here for you, you can see that hedge funds are essentially 53% positioned, so that is kind of average, and average isn't really where you'd expect us to be when we've just had a 25% rally.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So these guys are missing out and they're therefore very, very likely to chase this market.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: But if you only take one data point away from this today, just the one thing that you're going to screenshot, what is actually what really matters what really drives the market, as this tunnel seems to never end.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: What really actually drives the markets ultimately is profits and our expectation of profits actually drives the markets ultimately is profits and our expectation of profits.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Now, as we're about to enter the biggest earnings season of the quarter, where all the big boys report their numbers, what really matters is do we think they're going to go up or down?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: And we've had since the beginning of basically, the Trump era, a very, very depressed bunch of analysts who've all been saying well, earnings are going to go down, it'll all be terrible and margins are going to collapse because of tariffs and all that uncertainty out there and wars and whatnot.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: And they've done the reverse course.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Because they were wrong and actually companies appear to be getting more profitable, partly thanks to AI and partly thanks to tariffs not impacting margins all that much.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: It seems to be that a 10% to 15% to 20% margin can actually be borne by the supplier, which appears to be what's happening.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: But if you look at this little chart here, you see a very, very clean, clear blue line that's peaking back up very aggressively, but it's still only around the sort of 0% mark.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: So, even with the recovery.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: We've just seen analysts are still expecting us to essentially be in a flat market in terms of profits.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Now, if you've actually used AI, you will start to understand that that is something that's going to tremendously improve profitability.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Like, we have a little tech startup called Trade Vision where we build an app for you guys to get access to all the greatest data and do all the wonderful things and get the latest news and all that kind of good stuff.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So we have about a dozen plus developers on that and we're seeing that they're getting tremendously more productive because of it.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Tremendously more productive because of it.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So if you were a larger company with 100,000 developers like Meta, you could probably get rid of 30% or 40% or 50% of those over the coming quarters.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: That will make you tremendously more profitable Not great for developers, but great for shareholders.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: That's why I always say the best place to be is literally just to own the company, not to run the company, and definitely not to work for the company.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: If you take all that together, yeah, there is a little bit of fear out there.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: There's a bit of seasonality, which means that August is usually a bit of a slow month.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be, but usually it is.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Last year was actually very good, but that's because we kind of collapsed Japan and then realized it wasn't going to be all that bad.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I'm in a similar situation again there on the Japan story, but that's probably one for another video.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: But that's probably one for another video.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: But, ultimately, the good news far outweighs the bad news.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Unless the big AI companies, the big tech companies, come in with disappointing numbers, that would change the picture, but at the moment, it doesn't look like that.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: At the moment, it seems there's very, very, very strong AI demand.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: It's also what we've seen from the TSM earnings, Justin and so on, so I don't really see the reason to be a doomer.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: What I would say, though, is be prepared for perhaps a couple of weeks of not a lot happening.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: That tends to happen after you've done 25%, and really what you want to do is you want to make sure, if anything starts to drop, you want to make sure you actually take profits on those, and that's a very, very, very simple thing.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you that the first half an hour of Saturday's live session.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Just join me over there.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Felixrentsorg slash training.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: There's a link down below as well, in the description, and then you will never have this situation where you're up on a stock 50%, 100%, and then it goes back down to zero.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Or somebody wrote to me yesterday in the comments saying oh, I was in the SoFi rally, I took profits on half the position and I'm leaving the rest in there, like it's a way of doing it.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: But you could simply let the whole thing run and just set a stop, and that way you would potentially collect and gain much, much greater things.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: My best stock right now is CAR C-A-R it's Avis, right, that was up 20%, then 50%, then 70%, now it's up 90%.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So why the heck would I close this thing if it maybe was go up another 100 or 200, which these things do sometimes?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So being smart with knowledge, being smart with the rules and actually using rules that wall street uses to me has been the absolute game changer.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So I'd encourage you, as we're about to enter another very, very, very long swiss tunnel, undoubtedly to um, come and join us and learn those things, because you're spending all your waking life.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Most of the time, most people are working for what?
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: For money, right, and then most people take that money and they sort of just chuck it at stocks sort of a FOMO fashion and they're hoping this one's going to go up, or they read one line about something, watched a little video about another.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: But if there is no fundamental system, it's essentially luck and FOMO.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: And the moment the market's doing very nicely, everything's going up in a more or less straight line.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: You get lucky a lot more often than not, but at some point it's going to turn and it's going to start coming down again and that's when people get caught down with their trousers down and that isn't fun.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: And you can avoid that and you can remove the worrying about it in this beautiful market and you can find much, much better breakouts before they even happen, which is what we do.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: And you can do that a couple hours on a weekend every week and you don't need to do anything during the week.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: It's completely unnecessary to be active or to be trading or to be staring at charts.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: None of that really helps.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn that that, come and join me tomorrow at fedexfriendsorg slash training and I'm going to enjoy a beautiful sunny day here in Switzerland for the day.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I'm catching up with a guy I've been very good friends with for about 30 years and it'd be nice to see him spend time on a Friday and not have to ask anybody, and that's the thing I did not used to be able to do, that I used to have to ask people and didn't have time and holiday periods were short and that kind of thing, and now I'm in a very lucky position where I can do whatever I want to do, and it's a tremendous feeling freedom.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Honestly, I'd highly recommend it.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Thank you for watching.