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Markets face a moment of truth this week · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Chuck, Mike and Sucker with you today and in fact
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  Speaker 2: all week, as we typically are, and we've got a busy,
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  Speaker 2: busy week on tap this week.
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  Speaker 3: I will argue Chuck that in terms of schedule like that,
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  Speaker 3: there may end up being more I want to argue
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  Speaker 3: there may end up being more important weeks in hindsight
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  Speaker 3: based on you know, new information that we learned, But
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  Speaker 3: in terms of scheduled data, there's not a busier or
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  Speaker 3: more important week at all this year.
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  Speaker 4: You can make a case ever, maybe ever.
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  Speaker 3: Just the again, you know, if we get a surprise
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  Speaker 3: tariff announcement some other week, if we get another liberation
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  Speaker 3: day like those were all, you know, in hindsight more
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  Speaker 3: important weeks for the state of things. But in terms
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  Speaker 3: of stuff that's scheduled to come out this week, there's
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  Speaker 3: nothing that's going to compare with it.
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  Speaker 2: So where should we start at the beginning? Here's what
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  Speaker 2: we've got today. Quite honestly, there's nothing really interesting. So
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  Speaker 2: go about your day, go do what you do, and
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  Speaker 2: you'll be fine. If you care about the Dallas Fed
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  Speaker 2: Manufacturing Index, which we generally bring up like once every
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  Speaker 2: five years when it gets either really bad or really good. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: that's today at ten thirty. But otherwise go forth and multiply.
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  Speaker 2: If you look at tomorrow, this is where things really
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  Speaker 2: get heavy. Tomorrow morning, we get SMP Case Shiller Home
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  Speaker 2: Price Index, we get the FHFA Home Price Index, the
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  Speaker 2: Jolts Report, we get the Conference Board Consumer Confidence. That's
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  Speaker 2: just on the data side of things. When we go
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  Speaker 2: and look at what we have earnings wise, not as
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  Speaker 2: heavy as some of the later days, but Visa, Procter, Gamble,
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  Speaker 2: United Health, Merk, Boeing, Waste Management, Starbucks, ups Mandoly. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: it's like you're sitting there, You're like, Okay, I'm starting
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  Speaker 2: to get a little.
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  Speaker 4: Bit excited here.
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  Speaker 2: If that doesn't do it for you, if you're more
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  Speaker 2: of a FED guy, Wednesday's the day for you, because
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  Speaker 2: you have the FED and ADP employment change for July
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  Speaker 2: Q two GDP growth rate. First estimate that we're going
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  Speaker 2: to get on that side of things, and then you
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  Speaker 2: head over to earnings and you say, Okay, on the
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  Speaker 2: earning side, I got Microsoft, I got Meta, I got Qualcom.
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  Speaker 4: I got some beef there for earnings as well.
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  Speaker 3: By the way, Microsoft and Meta, along with Nvidia, those
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  Speaker 3: three companies have made up approximately half of the total
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  Speaker 3: game of the S and P five hundred this year,
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  Speaker 3: so pretty important names for this market.
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  Speaker 4: Can we talk about why that is?
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  Speaker 2: Because there's there's only one thing to quote our old
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  Speaker 2: friend Larry Cudlow, profits are the mother's milk of stocks.
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  Speaker 2: This is according to data from nap knapp not I'm
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  Speaker 2: feeling a little bit tired of need a break?
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  Speaker 4: Got it? Quote?
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  Speaker 2: If we remove the technology and communication services sectors because
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  Speaker 2: Meta ends up in communication services, because hey, just lump
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  Speaker 2: them in with AT and T since they're basically the
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  Speaker 2: same thing, right, no difference. Why wouldn't you put those
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  Speaker 2: two companies in the same sector? Of course, so like
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  Speaker 2: you should. If we remove the technology and communication services
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  Speaker 2: sectors to get a read on consumption and investment outside
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  Speaker 2: of the AI boom, earnings are tracking a paltry point
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  Speaker 2: eight percent year over year and sales growth is three
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  Speaker 2: point one, meaning margins are compressing. So pretty much what
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  Speaker 2: it's telling you the reason why those companies are accounting
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  Speaker 2: for so much growth in the market is because the
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  Speaker 2: other four hundred and ninety seven companies aren't really doing anything.
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  Speaker 2: There's not any granted, this is broader than that when
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  Speaker 2: you include you know, chip makers, but basically the rest
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  Speaker 2: of the companies outside of those two sectors are kind
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  Speaker 2: of just chopping wood. All it is there. So let's
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  Speaker 2: see where was I Thursday? Sorry, no, Wednesday, you get
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  Speaker 2: Microsoft Meta Qualcom. Then Thursday you take a look at
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  Speaker 2: what we have coming up. Then you get PCE Price Index,
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  Speaker 2: Personal income and Spending, Employment Cost Index, and weekly Jobbles
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  Speaker 2: claims another big day for economic data, and Gallie G.
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  Speaker 2: Wilkers after the bell you got Apple and Amazon reporting,
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  Speaker 2: and you've also got a little company known as MasterCard.
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  Speaker 2: You got Comcast, Bristol Myers, squib ab Vy, Southern Company.
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  Speaker 4: I mean again, it's just another big day for earnings.
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  Speaker 2: We cap it all off on Friday with the jobs
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  Speaker 2: report in ism manufacturing.
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  Speaker 4: No, no real major earnings.
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  Speaker 2: I mean sure, like if you sit there and you're like, hey,
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  Speaker 2: I'm really interested in you know, Exxon Mobile, Okay, like fine,
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  Speaker 2: Like it's still a four hundred billion dollars company.
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  Speaker 4: It's not a market driver.
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  Speaker 2: Sure, at this point everyone kind of just knows what
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  Speaker 2: you're going to get there. But I mean, aside from today,
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  Speaker 2: you have ninety six hours of economic and earning's fun
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  Speaker 2: and I can't think of anything better in my life.
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  Speaker 5: So let's I'm sorry to hear that.
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  Speaker 4: Sorry, did I go too far on that?
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  Speaker 5: Two daughters a wife?
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  Speaker 4: I know I was trying to really sell it. I
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  Speaker 4: went too far, didn't.
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  Speaker 5: Let's let's try and narrow this down a little bit.
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  Speaker 5: What matters? What doesn't this week?
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  Speaker 3: You know, we get consumer Sentiment final reading on Friday
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  Speaker 3: after Friday morning, not important to me. The PCE data
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  Speaker 3: that we're going to get, while interesting, probably just confirms
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  Speaker 3: a bunch of things that we already know.
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  Speaker 5: So I'm not really looking forward to.
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  Speaker 2: I made a top five, Michael, top five. I followed
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  Speaker 2: the instructions in the email, the top three. I'm an
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  Speaker 2: over achieve Okay, all right, so give me your top
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  Speaker 2: one and we'll just compare here. Job's Top one jobs Report,
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  Speaker 2: the job the Friday Jobs Support.
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  Speaker 5: Okay.
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  Speaker 4: Do you want to know why or do you just
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  Speaker 4: want me to leave it at that?
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  Speaker 3: No, you got to justify your case. Give me why.
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  Speaker 2: The entire economy right now is hinging on two things,
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  Speaker 2: the labor market not breaking down and AI spend. Given
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  Speaker 2: the fact that this whole AI spend is predicated on
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  Speaker 2: the labor market not breaking down.
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  Speaker 4: The labor market can't break down.
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  Speaker 3: So I know that that report is far more encompassing.
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  Speaker 3: But give me the case for why you're more the
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  Speaker 3: jobs report than the JILTS report that we get tuesday.
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  Speaker 2: JOLTS is two months old, it is it is two
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  Speaker 2: months survey response rate is horrible these days, so the
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  Speaker 2: jobs report not as bad.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, Okay.
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  Speaker 3: I bring up the JILTS report because we've been looking
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  Speaker 3: at that as something that has been driving the direction of.
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  Speaker 5: Some of this stuff, at least previously.
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  Speaker 3: Over the last few years, the response rate has been
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  Speaker 3: pretty bad. But on the unemployment numbers and things along
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  Speaker 3: those lines, we have the muddy waters of retiring boomers,
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  Speaker 3: We've got the muddy waters of all sorts of immigration
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  Speaker 3: and deportations, and so I'm pretty interested in the JOLTS
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  Speaker 3: numbers to see directionally where are we heading. I think
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  Speaker 3: that might give you a better indication of whether things
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  Speaker 3: are heating up or breaking down than the unemployment rate itself.
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  Speaker 3: But you're right that it is reading things back in June,
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  Speaker 3: and that is pretty outdated.
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  Speaker 2: And the other counter to it is the only reason
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  Speaker 2: we care about the JOLT support is that it influences
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  Speaker 2: the jobs report. True, sure, so like ultimately like the
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  Speaker 2: Jolts can do what it wants as long as the
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  Speaker 2: jobs report continues to come in finish, it's it's finish.
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  Speaker 2: So jobs were to the top Jults second, though you
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  Speaker 2: had Jilts just to be fair head Jolts.
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  Speaker 4: Seconds.
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  Speaker 3: Of all of the earnings, I'm most interested in what
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  Speaker 3: Amazon has to say, Believe it or not, I was
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  Speaker 3: least interested in them. Really, Okay, so here here's my
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  Speaker 3: case on Amazon.
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  Speaker 4: We didn't even prepare this. We did not.
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  Speaker 3: I am looking at Amazon as the company that I
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  Speaker 3: can point to that maybe raising prices due to teriffs.
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  Speaker 3: We've seen a few pieces published now about price movements
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  Speaker 3: at Amazon compared to Walmart, Target and others. And if
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  Speaker 3: they did choose to go raise prices, they're going to
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  Speaker 3: end up giving cover, providing cover to a whole bunch
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  Speaker 3: of other retailers that are out there. The stock has
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  Speaker 3: not done a whole lot this year. But I'm interested
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  Speaker 3: in what they I don't really care about their earnings
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  Speaker 3: because I don't think it's going to really knock the
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  Speaker 3: cover off the ball or move that.
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  Speaker 1: That you.
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  Speaker 3: Really I'm interested in what they have to say, regarding
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  Speaker 3: tariffs and what they're doing in terms.
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  Speaker 4: Of price movement, say anything.
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  Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be asked a bunch of pointed
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  Speaker 3: questions and they're gonna answer.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Maybe they don't because of the mistakes that people have
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  Speaker 3: made on that front. So like Amazon, Amazon and Walmart.
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  Speaker 3: You remember when Amazon was like, yeah, we're gonna like
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  Speaker 3: put a terr' terror. One hour later, we did not
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  Speaker 3: say we were going to put a tariff search charge
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  Speaker 3: on your prices. Jeff called us and he said that
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  Speaker 3: if we do that, we're all fired. So we're not
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  Speaker 3: doing that anymore.
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  Speaker 4: I don't know.
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  Speaker 3: They make the top of my list for that reason.
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  Speaker 3: I had Microsoft and Meta above them. Microsoft and Meta
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  Speaker 3: where my third. I lumped them in one group. Okay,
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  Speaker 3: it's the AI spend and that is the driver of
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  Speaker 3: this market right now, and if there is any wavering
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  Speaker 3: in that AI spend, then the companies that have been
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  Speaker 3: driving this thing for the last three months have some questions.
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  Speaker 5: M hm.
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  Speaker 2: I put the FED fourth, which I mean, I mean, gosh,
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  Speaker 2: like what a week where the FED hasn't been coming
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  Speaker 2: for and you're like, it's probably the fourth most important
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  Speaker 2: thing that that's going to happen this week.
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  Speaker 3: Well, here's the compelling case for why I would agree
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  Speaker 3: with you. They're not going to do anything. But it's
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  Speaker 3: quite possible that you have two voting members dissent on
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  Speaker 3: their decision, which is something that hasn't happened in thirty years.
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  Speaker 2: Which is kind of interesting. The counterpoint to it is
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  Speaker 2: it still doesn't change where policy is going to be true.
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  Speaker 2: And I also think that when it comes to the FED,
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  Speaker 2: they're not in the driver's seat right now because they've
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  Speaker 2: taken themselves out of it. They've said, hey, as long
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  Speaker 2: as the economic data is still okay, we're not doing anything,
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  Speaker 2: not moving. And that's why I put the jobs report above,
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  Speaker 2: because if you have both those in the same week,
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  Speaker 2: the only thing that moves the FED unemployment going.
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  Speaker 5: Up, SOEs that me, inflation's going to number five.
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  Speaker 2: I don't have pc Honestly, here's why. Here's why I
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  Speaker 2: don't think PCE is important, even though the FED watches it.
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  Speaker 2: Everyone's gotten so good at predicting where PCE is going
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  Speaker 2: to be based on the input pass throughs from CPI
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  Speaker 2: and PPI. There there's been no excitement in it for
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  Speaker 2: the last year or two. Everyone has it down to
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  Speaker 2: a sign. And so once you get CPI and PPI
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  Speaker 2: out of the way, the market's already done the heavy
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: lifting on PCE right because people are just so good
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  Speaker 2: at projecting it now. Also, they won't have the FED
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  Speaker 2: won't have the data prior to their meetings, so even
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  Speaker 2: if there were a surprise, it's not going to affect
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  Speaker 2: policy until the next meeting.
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  Speaker 4: Let's take a quick break.
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  Speaker 2: When we return, let's talk a little bit about the
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  Speaker 2: deal between the European Union and the.
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  Speaker 4: United States of America.
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  Speaker 2: So yesterday, I think it was around midday, the United
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  Speaker 2: States and EU announced a trade deal in which the
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  Speaker 2: EU is going to have its exports to the US
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  Speaker 2: tariff at a fifteen percent rate. The EU is going
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  Speaker 2: to attempt we'll talk about this, but attempted by seven
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  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty billion dollars of American energy products over
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: three years and invest in additional six hundred billion dollars
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: in the US. And so this is kind of another
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: major domino to falling. Basically, the only ones that you
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: have left out standing where something unexpected could happen later
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  Speaker 2: this week are Mexico and Canada. Aside from that, your
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: other major trading partners, Japan and the EU were pretty
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: much locked into their terif rates at this point, are
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: as locked in as they can be with handshake deals
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  Speaker 2: that are not approved by Congress.
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  Speaker 5: Or the European Union voting members.
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  Speaker 2: Correct, So I think Ultimately, it's something where you kind
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: of look at where things are and you have a
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: pretty good sense of where that the tariffs are going
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: to be now at least we think we do. And
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: now the question is, hey, what's the actual impact going
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: to be as it starts showing up in the United States.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, So, in terms of what this deal reportedly is.
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  Speaker 3: Going to encompass, it's going to include autos, which was
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: a big item. There's a lot of lack of clarity
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: about just about everything else. There's a number of things
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  Speaker 3: that will be exempted from this, So aircraft and their components,
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: certain chemicals, semiconductor equipment, and some agricultural products appear to
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: be exempted from the new tariffs. In general, autos do
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  Speaker 3: not appear to be exempted, so those will be phasing
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  Speaker 3: a fifteen percent tariff rate, which is lower than the
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: current twenty five percent for imported autos. I want to
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: talk a little bit about that effect on US automakers.
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  Speaker 3: Apparently no real announcements when it comes to alcohol or
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: liquor sales across the two countries, so more to come
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  Speaker 3: on that, and a real lack of clarity when it
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: comes to steel tariffs as well. Which are currently said
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: at fifty percent. Does this include steel? Does it maintain
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: that fifty percent for any country that is exporting to
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: the United States in terms of the major categories of
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: things getting traded between the EU and the United States.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: So in terms of exports, sorry, imports from the European Union,
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: the single biggest category in twenty twenty four with machinery
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: and vehicles. It sounds like some of those will be exempted.
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  Speaker 3: You know, obviously airplanes and parts are going to be
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: exempted from that. Chemicals is the next largest category, and
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: then you get into just kind of other types of
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: manufactured goods, other goods, energy, raw materials, et cetera. Food
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: and drink included in there as well. But the biggest
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: categories here machinery and vehicles and chemicals have a number
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: of exempted types of products that we'll be in here,
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  Speaker 3: I just am. What's truly compelling to me is how
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: dramatically the goalpost has moved from where we were on
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  Speaker 3: January first. If you had told investors that the European Union, Japan, Canada,
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  Speaker 3: Mexico we're all going to face tarifrates of fifteen percent
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  Speaker 3: minimum by midway through this year, it would have been
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  Speaker 3: a disaster zone. We're sitting here now in late July,
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: and everyone's kind of welcoming the idea of fifteen percent
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  Speaker 3: terifrates on European goods.
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  Speaker 2: So I think the big thing there are two piece here,
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  Speaker 2: One that's within the US's control, one that is more
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: they're actually both outside. But hear me out, the big
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  Speaker 2: thing that we have not seen is any kind of
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: significant retaliation from anyone true, and so if that's off
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  Speaker 2: the table, it takes some of the worst case scenarios
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  Speaker 2: off the table where you don't have, you know, a
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  Speaker 2: counter fifteen percent tear for something like that going into
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  Speaker 2: effect on US exports.
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  Speaker 3: Just look at what we saw with China for a
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  Speaker 3: period of time. That type of escalation, if off the table,
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  Speaker 3: provides a lot of relief.
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  Speaker 2: The other piece is the economic data has still been good,
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: and the AI earnings and AI adjason earnings have been
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: good enough to offset the fact that the rest of
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: the earnings pictures I talked about in the first segment,
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  Speaker 2: corporate earnings are rising point eight percent year over year
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  Speaker 2: if you don't include all that AI spend. And so
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  Speaker 2: I think that when you look at it, hey, there's
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  Speaker 2: been enough happening in AI to you know, continue to
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  Speaker 2: move things on that front. And the bottom hasn't fallen
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: out as far as economic data at this point, and
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: so markets are rightly saying, at least, you know, based
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: on the data that's out there right now, okay, we're
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: gonna we're going.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: To assume that this continues now.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Is that the right assumption the next six months, We're
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: gonna tell us because we're just starting to see this
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: tariff impact right now. The other piece when we look
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: at some of the pledges in here, so one of
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: the pieces inside of this was two hundred and fifty
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: billion dollars in annual US energy imports or exports to
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: the EU over the next three years. And this is
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: going to be an awful, tough, tough, tough slog here, yea.
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: And the reason why is just like.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: If you look at what the the EU imported pretty
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: much in like total energy imports last year, it's it's
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: pretty much saying it's all going to have to come
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: from the US, like pretty close.
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: To all of it.
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: Just shut down the pipelines.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: And so like, could it happen in theory, yes, could
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: there be more energy that is bought Yes. The other
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: piece on this six hundred billion dollar investment the EU.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: This is according to Politico this morning. I'll quote from them.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: The EU has admitted it doesn't have the power to
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: deliver on a promise to invest six hundred billion in
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: the United States economy because the cash would come entirely
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: from private sector investment, over which Brussels has no authority.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: So there's that. What does it all mean?
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: Hey again, unless the economic data breaks down, there's no
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: change right now. Quick break Wall Street watches next.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: TFE show. Breaking business news is always first right here
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Street Watch a complete look at what's moving market so
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: far today right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: Markets beginning a jam packed week in positive territories, investors
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: react to a trade deal between the US and European Union.
• 20:09
  Speaker 6: Wall Streets also bracing for one of the busiest weeks
• 20:12
  Speaker 6: of the year, where we'll see more MAGS seven earnings
• 20:14
  Speaker 6: for Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and many other major names
• 20:18
  Speaker 6: outside of tech, including Visa, Procter and Gamble boeing in Starbucks.
• 20:23
  Speaker 6: As for the economic data calendar, we have GDP inflation reading,
• 20:28
  Speaker 6: jolts and a JAWS report on Friday. Oh, and we
• 20:30
  Speaker 6: have a FED meeting on Wednesday. Right now, the Dow
• 20:34
  Speaker 6: is up by only eight points, so completely flat. SMP
• 20:38
  Speaker 6: five hundred is up about a tenth or percent, also
• 20:41
  Speaker 6: eight points higher. On the Nasdaq is up nearly four
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: tenths of one percent, or seventy three points. Russell two
• 20:47
  Speaker 6: thousand is completely flat. Ten year Treasure Reeled is up
• 20:52
  Speaker 6: one basis point a four point four zero two percent,
• 20:55
  Speaker 6: and crude oil is up two percent higher today training
• 20:58
  Speaker 6: at sixty six dollars in fifty eight cents a barrel.
• 21:02
  Speaker 6: Several energy companies are seeing gains on the day in
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: reaction to the US EU trade deal, where the EU
• 21:08
  Speaker 6: agreed to buy seven hundred and fifty billion dollars worth
• 21:10
  Speaker 6: of US energy, including liquified natural gas. Venture Global, New
• 21:15
  Speaker 6: Fortress Energy, and Schenaier Energy are up anywhere between two
• 21:19
  Speaker 6: and four percent. US defense stocks, including Lockheed Martin, also
• 21:23
  Speaker 6: seeing modest gains after President Trump said the EU would
• 21:26
  Speaker 6: be purchasing a vast amount of military equipment. Lockheed is
• 21:30
  Speaker 6: up nearly one percent. Meanwhile, South Korea Samsung Electronics INK
• 21:35
  Speaker 6: to sixteen and a half billion dollar deal with Tesla
• 21:38
  Speaker 6: to manufacture AI chips for the EV maker in Texas.
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: CEO Eon Musk confirmed the deal, saying Samsung's new facilities
• 21:47
  Speaker 6: in Texas will be dedicated to making the company's next
• 21:50
  Speaker 6: generation AI six chip. Tesla shares up nearly three percent,
• 21:55
  Speaker 6: while Samsung stock jumped nearly seven percent higher on the news,
• 22:00
  Speaker 6: and JP Morgan upgraded Nike to overweight for neutral, saying
• 22:04
  Speaker 6: the athletic shoemaker can recover over the next several years.
• 22:08
  Speaker 6: Nike shares are up nearly four percent on the day.
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: I'm Tucker Silvan. That is Wall Street.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Watch PC here from the Financial Times how long can
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: the US economy defy expectations? And what it's talking about is, Look,
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: you've got tariffs that have gone into place. You have
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's I think probably the biggest thing that's
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: been sure visible from an economic perspective. When we talk
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: about the labor force, certainly the impact of deportations on
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: the labor force, especially in parts of the economy that
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: tend to have large numbers of undocumented workers. Think construction, hospitality,
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: places like that. How's that potentially impacting the US economy,
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: and I think the big thing is when we look
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: at two things, when we look at the odd economic
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: data and quite honestly, when you look at the stock market,
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: neither one is signaling any kind of you know, flashing
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: red lights right now. And so the question out there
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: is the headline of, Hey, how long can the US economy,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: you know, defy these expectations that maybe it's going to
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: slow down?
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Can you define the expectations right now accurately, because I'm
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: struggling to do so a bit.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Well, let me talk about my own personal expectations, because
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know if someone else.
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: Didn't, you know, verbalize theirs. I don't want to speak.
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: For Yeah, I'm just trying to read the you know,
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: when I look at Fox Business or CNBC or Bloomberg
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: what the general expectations are.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: But I'll be honest, Well, my personal expectations were that
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: we would be starting to see more of a slow
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: down in the US economy by late June early July,
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: and we haven't yet. Not granted, we haven't gotten any
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: of the July data, and there was an overall slow
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: down in the first half of the year, but there's
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: nothing that you can point to where you say, hey,
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: this is because of policies X, Y, and Z that
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: this is happening. And so I think the question and
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: where I've gotten to in terms of kind of my
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: mental approach to this is, look, if we the first
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: half of the year is most likely going to show
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: somewhere around one to one to quarter percent GDP growth
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: slower than last year. But again, we've seen some of
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: these bursts before where this happens. If the second half
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: of the year's in the same ballpark. Quite honestly, I
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: don't think you can really keep waiting around being like, hey,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: when's the impact gonna happen. It's it's the same reason
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: that we said, Look, if inflation doesn't spike by the
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: end of last year and unemployment doesn't spike, you declare
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: that the FED got that soft landing, and you move
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: on because something happens in twenty twenty seven has nothing
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: to do with the FED raising rates in twenty twenty two.
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: So I'm kind of in the same ballpark on this,
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: which is, hey, if you've got all these tariffs that
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: went into effect, and if if you have all these
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: deportations that are happening, and the US economy is still
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: fine at the end of this year. Fine, I would
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: decline is not defined as not in recession. How long
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: are you going to wait for the effect to show up?
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: I would add one caveat where it's not in recession
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: and also not experiencing over four percent inflation, which again
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: either of those are pretty surprising.
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I'm with you.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: We have seen in investors' markets and the US economy
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: prove out to continue to be quite resilient, and you
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: have not seen those those more dramatic potential outcomes for
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: markets that could have come to pass.
• 25:43
  Speaker 5: To this point, I.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: Still keep running the question, but by all accounts, it
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: appears that primarily US corporations are I guess what do
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: you want to call it subsidizing prices to consumers by
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: eating into their own profit margins.
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: It's fine, It.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: Seems to be agreed, totally fine. Does that change? Is
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: just a huge question that I don't have an answer to.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: If I'm again, these aren't the companies that are driving
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: the stock market forward. To be clear, right, we just
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: talked about which sorts are It's Microsoft, it's Meta, it's
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: n Video. None of those are worried about the tariff
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: impact and needing to drive prices through to consumers if
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: they have to. Nvida will have no issue charging higher
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: prices to their customers. But for the other four hundred
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: and ninety seven companies that are out there, how long
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: do you sit around and say, yeah, I'm willing to
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: take the profit margin hit, I'm willing to see my
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: stock price take a hit. I don't have an answer
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: to that.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: It's again, the two things that are keeping everything together
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: right now. Labor is in recent weeks, like the last
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: three four weeks, you can make a case that labor's
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: showing renewed strength.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, not like unemployment rate went down weekly Joba's claims
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: are falling. Job openings I believe went up in the
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: most recent read for May Like these are indications that
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: in spite of that stagnant workforce that we've been talking about,
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: it's not ringing alarm bells.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: Right So if and if that's happening, if that's the case,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: where the labor market is actually strengthening right now, then
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: you kind of look at it and go, there's not
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: really anything to worry about because if the labor market
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: is you know, and again we need you know, another
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: month or two of this to be able to say, hey,
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: there's something there. If that's happening, okay, there's your next
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: growth engine.
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: Right. It's the fact that consumer spending can power you
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: through here.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: If you go the other way, then you're sitting there
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: and you're saying, okay, housing is kind of in the toilet.
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: You know, construction is slipping, pricing is slipping, so you're
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: not getting anything out of that. If labor starts to deteriorate, hey,
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: that's going to impact consumer spending in the second half.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: That's not going to be great. And that pretty much
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: leaves you with this AI data center cap boom. Right
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: as the lone feather in the cap, we're saying, okay,
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: that's the only thing that's really pulling this this puppylong.
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: Is that enough?
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Maybe like that, but to this point the last three
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: four weeks, you look at the data and you go, yeah,
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: what is there, Like, why would you have anything you
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: know happen imminently here. The only other thing that's out
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: there that we still need to watch is what happens
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: on pricing. As these tariffs have, you know, more time
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: to come into effect, and certainly it seems like baseline
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: tariff and This is even from President Trump this morning.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: He says that he expects the global baseline tariff will
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: likely be somewhere in the fifteen to twenty percent range,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: So moving up from ten right as we're starting to
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: feel the impact of that ten. These are things that
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: you wonder about, you know, how does that potentially impact
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: the economy further? Can companies, you know, absorb another five
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: to ten percent increase in import costs? We'll have to see.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here. When we return, you
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: want talk FED? Sure, all right, reserve, We're talking FED.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: When we come back, find daily interviews and full shows
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: of the Financial Exchange on how are YouTube page? Get
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: cut up on anything and everything you might have missed.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Text does six
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: one seven three six two one three eight five with
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: your comments and questions about today's show. This is the
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: We got a piece here today from Barons. It's titled
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: the FED hasn't seen a split like this in thirty years?
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: Are they going bowling? Are they doing gymnastics? Jay Powells
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: out there, Jay Powells out there on the rings?
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think some context here is important. We
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: talk about it frequently on the show, but if you
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: just get the update, you know once every six weeks
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: that the FED did this, the FED did that, you
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: might come away with the wrong idea. The way that
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve governs is by vote. It's by a
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: committee of a board of governors, and generally speaking, that
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: board of governors almost always acts unanimously. Now you know,
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: it's a lot of the discussions are behind closed doors,
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: and there's always some disagreement to some degree, but generally speaking,
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: that board acts unanimously. And it's anticipated that at this
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: next meeting you could have two voting members of the
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: FED disagreeing with the direction that they end up going,
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: which would be a pretty significant level because we haven't again,
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: we haven't seen that in thirty years.
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: To some degree, it doesn't matter because it's not going
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: to change what the Federal Reserve actually does.
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: But you know, it may cause the FED.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: It'll certainly cause the FED to need to answer questions
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: about why those two dissented, It may cause them to
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: need to play to them a little bit more, and
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: it will almost certainly get those two Federal Reserve members
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: a whole bunch more attention in the media, which is
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: perhaps why it matters the least, because it may all
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: just be happening because those two want more attention in.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: The media, and specifically they want more attention in the
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: media because.
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: They want to get picked as the next chair.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: And I want to talk about this because this honestly
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: bothers me a little, and not that like someone wants
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: to be FED chair, because we ultimately, if you want
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: to be FED chair, you certainly campaign for it. Sure
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: behind the scenes, the idea that now someone who wants
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: to be FED chair needs to be making, you know,
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: public statements and taking public actions that indicate, hey, you
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: should pick me because I'll do X, y Z kind
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: of undermines the whole credibility.
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: Of the thing.
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: It does. I have a tough time.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: So the other thing that is true is that there
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: are typically more descents that happen towards the end of
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: a FED chair's term. This is not I think having
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: two descent at the same time is abnormal, but having
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: governors vote against the group towards the end of a
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: chair's term is actually normal and does happen more often,
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: and not to this extent, not to this extent, agreed,
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: but I just yes, it does affect credibility. Yes, I
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: do question. Now, hey, Waller and Bowman, are you being
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: serious about this or are you just looking for the nod?
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: And that and of itself does affect the overall credibility,
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: but you know, it might just be a furthering of norms.
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: And here's the thing. When J.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: Powell was named FED chair by President Trump in twenty eighteen, yep,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: did we spend all of twenty seventeen being like, Wow,
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: Jay's really putting himself out there, you know, look at
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: look at what he's saying, Look at what he's talking about.
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: No, I wasn't making headlines at all. No, it wasn't
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: a thing.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: And I think here's the piece that I really would
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: here's the thing that I will find interesting because it
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: seems like it's probably it seems like this fedchair.
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: Thing is down to four people.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: Okay, you've got Waller, You've got warsh you've got Bessin't,
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: and you've got Hassett.
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: Yep, those are the four names that are being talked about. Agreed.
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna say.
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: Who would be good or bad at this point because well, actually,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: well I think Waller would be the best out of
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: any of them.
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: But that's just me.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: What would be really interesting to see And I'm I'm
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: gonna use bessent' at the example here, because Besson, for
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: all of the last year or two, it was very
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: clear that he was running to try to be Treasury
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: secretary in the event that Trump won last November, yep.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: And the reason I say this is he was very
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: critical of the Fed cutting interest rates then and also
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: in particular was very critical of Janet Yellen for using
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: a mix of issuance that was skewed to the short term.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: He issuing more short term bonds than previous Treasury secretaries
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: had done. And Bessen comes into the Treasury secretary role
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: this year, and what's he been doing, continuing the exact
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: same mix, And so part of it I look at
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: it and it's like, Okay, so you said you were
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: gonna do this, and now you do it. You're doing
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: something else. Granted that it's a different job for Treasury
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: secretary where there's.
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: No committee that would overrule you.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: Necessarily, but part of me looks at this, and let's
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: say that Waller gets in, and Waller's been one of
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: the guys who again I think he would be the best.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: But he's also been saying you need to cut rates,
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: you need to cut rates. Wouldn't it be interesting if
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: he got in and then his first vote is to
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: not cut rates.
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: I don't think it would be.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: I think it would be to cut rates once and
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: then just sit around and wait, because that seems to
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: be his perspective.
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: But let's face the facts. I don't think Waller's getting
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: in anyway.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're handicapping it right now based on kind
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: of what we hear and what we and again like
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: we don't, we don't know, like we're not, we don't,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: we don't have you know, the minutia on speed dial
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: like we like we used to. I think if i'm handicapping.
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: It today.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: Forty Hassett, Yeah, thirty five percent wash, twenty percent to
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: bestn't and whatever's left over.
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: To Waller sixty, I think it's like five. But they're
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: basically the same. Yeah, I'm around there.
• 35:53
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• 36:50
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• 37:00
  Speaker 2: See the headline is he's showing up. Things are getting
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: better at Boeing under CEO Ortberg. Can he keep it going.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: I'll honestly make the case. I'm not sure that there's
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: been too much that has changed to this point simply because, yes,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: the stock has gone up, but maybe that's just because,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: like the stock was doing so badly because of you know,
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: years of mismanagement before.
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you can make a compelling case that so long
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: as no other defects were found in planes, that the
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: stock price was bound to go up.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: And I guess my case on this is, Look, turning
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: around an aircraft manufacturer takes years, if not decades. It's
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: not like Kelly Ortberg suddenly walked in and was like, hey, guys, make.
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: Sure all the screws are tightened.
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: You know, Hey, is that door plug in? Jimmy, you
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: gotta put that. You gotta put the door plug in.
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: We can't get windows on all these things.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Right, So yeah, I think that you could if if
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: you walk into a deli, you can turn that puppy
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: around in a year. I don't know you can turn
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: around an aircraft manufacturer in a year, is the only
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: point I'm trying to make.
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: It's a big ship.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's hold off on, you know, so much
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: praise until we get a little bit further down the
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: line and we'll see where things go. But Jimmy really
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: put that door plug in. Let's take a quick break
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: when we come back. We got our two and just
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: a bit