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Move Fast And Break Wind(shields) · Politix

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Keep the Biden era policy.
0:01
Everyone who wants to get an electric vehicle can buy whichever
0:05
one they want with
0:06
SPEAKER_00: federal support.
0:07
SPEAKER_00: Just throw money at people who want electric cars.
0:09
But California,
0:10
Washington,
0:11
New Jersey,
0:11
New York specifically make it legal to vandalize Teslas.
0:20
Hey,
0:21
everyone,
0:21
you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: This week,
0:24
Democrats have a choice to make about whether they'll vote to
0:27
allow Donald Trump
0:28
SPEAKER_00: and Elon Musk to continue their constitutional crime spree or not.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about the government shutdown fight,
0:36
SPEAKER_00: what to look out for between now and the Friday funding deadline,
0:40
SPEAKER_00: and how we think Democrats should approach it.
0:43
Then paid subscribers get a detailed look at the quickly
0:46
collapsing economy and
0:48
whether there's anything Democrats and progressives can do to
0:51
lean into Tesla's
0:53
SPEAKER_00: business woes to really put the hurt on Musk himself.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: So if you want to hear the whole conversation,
0:59
SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
1:07
SPEAKER_00: Hey everyone, welcome to the Politics Podcast.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boitler.
1:10
SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
1:11
SPEAKER_00: So we are recording this Tuesday morning,
1:13
SPEAKER_00: March 11th,
1:14
SPEAKER_00: for a Wednesday morning episode,
1:17
SPEAKER_00: which is slightly suboptimal timing because in between,
1:22
SPEAKER_00: the House will vote on a bill,
1:24
SPEAKER_00: a continuing resolution specifically,
1:27
SPEAKER_00: which if it becomes law,
1:29
SPEAKER_00: would prevent the government from shutting down at the end of the week.
1:32
SPEAKER_00: So for several weeks leading up to this one,
1:37
The big question was sort of whether Democrats in the House
1:40
would align against this bill.
1:44
And the conventional wisdom was that that would doom the bill
1:48
itself because
1:49
Republicans can't ever really seem to get their act together to
1:53
pass appropriations
1:54
SPEAKER_00: legislation on their own.
1:58
SPEAKER_00: As of now,
1:59
SPEAKER_00: and this is the bad timing coming back to bite,
2:03
I think the conventional wisdom has changed and most people
2:06
suspect that House
2:07
SPEAKER_00: Republicans will cobble together 217 or 18 votes to pass the thing.
2:13
The state of play as of Tuesday morning is that Mike Johnson is
2:17
saying he is going
2:19
SPEAKER_01: to pass this on a party line vote.
2:21
SPEAKER_01: There are
2:23
three or four house backbenchers who seem to be indicating that
2:29
they would like to
2:29
SPEAKER_01: vote no on this,
2:31
SPEAKER_01: but the,
2:33
SPEAKER_01: the knowers on Capitol Hill are like,
2:35
SPEAKER_01: these guys are going to fold.
2:37
And you really like,
2:38
and it makes sense a,
2:39
because we,
2:39
we saw a sort of test run at this.
2:41
SPEAKER_00: We're like, uh, on the budget, on the budget.
2:45
SPEAKER_00: Right.
2:46
So separate,
2:46
this is their,
2:47
their,
2:47
their tax plan,
2:48
their plan to cut Medicaid.
2:49
SPEAKER_00: There's a bunch of,
2:51
SPEAKER_00: House Republicans who don't want to cut Medicaid,
2:54
SPEAKER_00: but because this is like a test vote,
2:57
SPEAKER_00: it's like,
2:58
SPEAKER_00: it's not the real thing.
3:00
SPEAKER_00: Mike Johnson was able to get
3:02
SPEAKER_00: a majority to vote for that resolution.
3:05
SPEAKER_01: But also the reason we think conservatives will fold,
3:08
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
3:08
SPEAKER_01: the reason everybody thinks conservatives will fold.
3:10
SPEAKER_00: Three or four is not enough to hold the line.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: Like you need at least a good dozen.
3:14
SPEAKER_01: But it's also because Democrats are,
3:16
SPEAKER_01: because this is the point I want to cut to,
3:18
SPEAKER_01: it's like Democrats are executing the Brian Boitler,
3:22
SPEAKER_01: do something Twitter resistance campaign.
3:24
SPEAKER_01: playbook,
3:25
which is like they have all committed to voting no on this
3:29
unless it includes some
3:30
SPEAKER_01: kind of unspecified anti-Doge provisions.
3:35
SPEAKER_01: Put a pin in that because we'll get into what that could be.
3:40
SPEAKER_01: This strategy works great if
3:44
backbench House Republicans defect from the right,
3:48
as they often have on this kind of vote.
3:50
SPEAKER_01: Because if Mike Johnson can't pass a party line bill,
3:56
SPEAKER_01: then Hakeem Jeffries can say,
3:59
SPEAKER_01: the government is shutting down because Republicans are clowns.
4:02
SPEAKER_01: They have to come to us in good faith and negotiate,
4:05
SPEAKER_01: you know,
4:06
SPEAKER_01: whatever it is,
4:07
SPEAKER_01: negotiate thing X,
4:08
SPEAKER_01: and then like big win for everybody.
4:12
SPEAKER_01: That being said,
4:13
SPEAKER_01: Republicans are not idiots,
4:16
and they can see that in the face of unanimous or nearly
4:20
unanimous Democratic opposition,
4:22
SPEAKER_01: it would be playing into Democrats' hands to rebel from the right.
4:26
SPEAKER_01: So they will likely kind of all come together.
4:28
SPEAKER_01: Now, we'll see what happens, right?
4:30
SPEAKER_01: If Republicans splinter and this can't pass, like, everybody's happy.
4:35
SPEAKER_00: Except Republicans.
4:36
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
4:36
SPEAKER_01: But I mean all – Which is good.
4:38
SPEAKER_01: All brands of Democrats, which I think is why ultimately.
4:41
SPEAKER_01: But I just – you know, like this is what you wanted them to do, right?
4:46
SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes.
4:47
SPEAKER_00: No,
4:47
and so Hakeem Jeffries issued a statement over the weekend that
4:51
was basically –
4:52
SPEAKER_00: this is important too because it –
4:57
pertains to what might happen if Republicans in the House
5:00
managed to get this into
5:01
SPEAKER_00: the Senate,
5:02
SPEAKER_00: which is he says,
5:03
SPEAKER_00: we're voting no,
5:04
SPEAKER_00: like the whole caucus.
5:05
But the grounds on which he said they're voting no were
5:10
specifically – they were
5:11
SPEAKER_00: not per se about –
5:14
Donald Trump is letting Elon Musk do a bunch of
5:16
unconstitutional and illegal things
5:17
SPEAKER_00: throughout the government.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: They're not going to honor this law if we pass it,
5:21
SPEAKER_00: and so we're not going to sanction the lawlessness by voting for it.
5:25
SPEAKER_00: He said this isn't a clean continuation of last year's appropriations.
5:31
SPEAKER_00: There are poison pills in this that make it a Republican bill,
5:36
SPEAKER_00: and we're not going to help them pass legislation we had no input on.
5:42
which is like a very classic reason why a party would align
5:45
against the other party to,
5:47
SPEAKER_00: uh,
5:48
SPEAKER_00: oppose their,
5:49
SPEAKER_00: their annual spending plan.
5:51
SPEAKER_00: Right.
5:52
SPEAKER_00: Uh,
5:53
SPEAKER_00: and so,
5:54
SPEAKER_00: okay,
5:55
SPEAKER_00: but see,
5:55
SPEAKER_00: like this,
5:57
SPEAKER_00: this is important because if they get the bill into the Senate,
6:03
SPEAKER_00: then we're going to have to,
6:04
SPEAKER_00: um,
6:05
SPEAKER_00: kind of replay the same game,
6:08
SPEAKER_00: but with slightly different rules.
6:09
SPEAKER_00: Cause the,
6:11
SPEAKER_00: You have 53 Republican senators.
6:15
SPEAKER_00: It's unclear whether there are 50 Republican votes for this thing.
6:19
SPEAKER_00: But on top of that,
6:20
SPEAKER_00: Democrats can choose to mount a filibuster against it in the Senate,
6:24
SPEAKER_00: and they would need some grounds to do that that wasn't just like,
6:27
we are shutting down the government because we're pissed at
6:31
Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
6:33
SPEAKER_00: So the game theory changes a little bit, but I don't think that –
6:39
SPEAKER_00: if House Republicans manage to pass this,
6:41
that means that they've like called Democrats bluff or that the
6:45
game is over,
6:46
SPEAKER_00: that Democrats have no choice.
6:47
SPEAKER_01: No, no, but I mean, we're just, we're just, we're onto the next stage.
6:49
SPEAKER_01: I just like,
6:51
SPEAKER_01: for the purposes of this podcast as an ongoing enterprise,
6:54
SPEAKER_01: like I,
6:56
SPEAKER_01: one of my frustrations with the,
7:01
SPEAKER_01: the do something ethic is that I sometimes think that you guys are,
7:07
SPEAKER_01: don't like to take yes for an answer from Democrats.
7:11
Like I agree narrowly that like this was the right gambit for
7:17
House Democrats to
7:18
pick because it now puts the onus on House Republicans to
7:23
deliver unanimity,
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SPEAKER_01: which they have often struggled to do.
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SPEAKER_01: And it may it may blow up in their face.
7:30
On the other hand,
7:31
if they do pass it,
7:33
you know,
7:33
we move on to the Senate.
7:36
where now it's a different tactical situation and it raises the question.
7:40
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
7:41
SPEAKER_01: Democrats as,
7:43
as few as 41 Democrats absolutely can draw a hard line in the
7:49
sand and say like,
7:50
SPEAKER_01: we will filibuster anything that doesn't meet our demands.
7:57
SPEAKER_01: Um,
7:59
SPEAKER_01: I think that's tough,
8:01
SPEAKER_01: though,
8:01
SPEAKER_01: you know,
8:02
SPEAKER_01: politically,
8:03
SPEAKER_01: not just because like,
8:05
SPEAKER_01: oh,
8:05
SPEAKER_01: you know,
8:05
SPEAKER_01: the politics,
8:06
SPEAKER_01: blah,
8:07
SPEAKER_01: blah,
8:07
SPEAKER_01: blah.
8:07
SPEAKER_01: But because like specifically,
8:09
if you're trying to rally people around the idea that these
8:13
doge cutbacks are harmful.
8:16
SPEAKER_01: A situation in which all the government workers aren't getting paid.
8:22
SPEAKER_01: It's just like the tactics and the goal of.
8:27
are at like an odd mismatch to each other because it puts
8:33
Republicans in the case
8:34
SPEAKER_01: of being able to be the ones who are like,
8:36
SPEAKER_01: these public services are really important.
8:38
SPEAKER_01: We've got to go get them going.
8:39
SPEAKER_01: And I just think foreseeably, right?
8:42
SPEAKER_01: Like there's like two options in the Senate, right?
8:47
SPEAKER_01: One is three.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: One is Democrats can just roll over.
8:51
SPEAKER_01: And vote for this thing.
8:53
SPEAKER_01: The second is Democrats can vote no, but not filibuster.
8:56
SPEAKER_01: The third,
8:57
SPEAKER_01: which I mean,
8:58
I've been talking to people in the Senate and like this is what
9:00
everyone in the
9:02
SPEAKER_01: Senate thinks is going to happen if this passes the House.
9:05
SPEAKER_01: They think that Democrats will filibuster this,
9:08
that there will be a shutdown and that then in a couple of
9:11
weeks they will cave.
9:13
SPEAKER_01: Um,
9:14
but like they feel very strongly that they have listened to the
9:18
people on Twitter
9:20
and at their town halls and like they want them to do a
9:23
pointless and politically
9:24
SPEAKER_01: indefensible shutdown before caving.
9:27
SPEAKER_01: And like, I, I, I guess that's what's going to happen.
9:31
And I'm not,
9:32
I'm not that firmly opposed to it because I guess it doesn't
9:36
really matter.
9:37
SPEAKER_01: And people want to like, see the Democrats are fighting, but yeah.
9:41
I don't – I also – I feel pretty pessimistic about this
9:48
strategy unless it works in the House.
9:50
SPEAKER_00: Or,
9:51
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
9:52
unless like the – say this two-week shutdown that you think
9:58
will inevitably end
9:59
SPEAKER_00: with Democrats caving doesn't end with some sort of –
10:04
mechanism being added to the cr that really would make it
10:07
harder for trump and must
10:08
to carry on the way they have been i mean i think that like the
10:11
difference between
10:12
like yes a shutdown is in some sense doge on steroids you know
10:17
um but it's also
10:19
SPEAKER_00: consistent with constitutional government if the congress says no more
10:23
appropriations then government functions stop down and trump is
10:27
obligated to follow
10:28
that law and i mean i don't know if he will or not um and and
10:31
if he if if if
10:34
SPEAKER_00: there's a like lapse in appropriations and he continues to spend,
10:39
then like we're on to like in an entirely different world than
10:43
either of us have
10:44
SPEAKER_00: like really contemplated.
10:46
SPEAKER_00: So I don't think that there's like too much channel confusion here.
10:49
Like Democrats have to go out and be like,
10:53
we are not going to vote to continue the crime spree.
10:56
SPEAKER_00: And so like, what do I want?
10:57
SPEAKER_00: And like, am I shifting the,
10:59
SPEAKER_01: Because I think we can find on the pod,
11:03
SPEAKER_01: like you said in the past,
11:05
that you didn't think Democrats should filibuster here if
11:10
that's what it came down to.
11:11
SPEAKER_01: And I think that that was part of the lure to getting people on board.
11:14
SPEAKER_01: And now we're going to get the rug pulled.
11:17
Democrats who can never,
11:19
can never make,
11:21
can never make you happy no matter what they do.
11:23
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
11:23
SPEAKER_00: But, but, but you're wrong.
11:25
SPEAKER_00: Um,
11:26
SPEAKER_00: and,
11:27
SPEAKER_00: and I can explain like,
11:28
SPEAKER_00: and I,
11:29
SPEAKER_00: I,
11:30
I firmly believe that like the best thing would be for us to go
11:34
back in time two
11:35
months and neuralize Chuck Schumer into being a different kind
11:39
of person who then
11:40
SPEAKER_00: could like
11:41
take the helm and say things like there will be no Democratic
11:45
votes for election
11:46
SPEAKER_00: deniers or for people who took Trump loyalty tests.
11:50
SPEAKER_00: And Democrats would follow because that's a totally reasonable position.
11:54
SPEAKER_00: And then you,
11:54
SPEAKER_00: for instance,
11:55
wouldn't have Democrats pretending to be so disappointed that
11:58
they trusted Marco Rubio.
12:00
SPEAKER_00: And now he's out there fucking over Ukraine and fucking over USAID,
12:03
SPEAKER_00: like anticipating what Republicans are going to do and creating like good
12:09
defensible standards for opposing them would have been better
12:11
leadership on nominations.
12:13
It also would have been smart for Chuck Schumer to say a month
12:17
or two ago about appropriations,
12:19
SPEAKER_00: like no democratic votes until the lawbreaking stops,
12:22
SPEAKER_00: right?
12:24
SPEAKER_00: And I think that just as a rule,
12:26
we'd all be better off if they stopped being so enamored of
12:31
this sort of like
12:32
SPEAKER_00: inside voice
12:34
SPEAKER_00: reach across the aisle,
12:35
work back channel strategy to make Republicans be better people
12:39
than they are.
12:40
SPEAKER_00: But we are where we are.
12:41
SPEAKER_00: So what is the right thing to do now?
12:46
I argued on the podcast and in an article that Chuck Schumer
12:51
should drop the filibuster threat
12:55
so that if Republicans get it together and they want to
12:59
sanction the crime spree,
13:01
SPEAKER_00: they can do it.
13:02
SPEAKER_00: My firm line,
13:05
SPEAKER_00: the one that will be consistent across all these episodes and articles,
13:10
SPEAKER_00: is that Democrats just cannot provide the decisive votes
13:14
SPEAKER_00: to sanction what's happening, to just say, you guys lack the votes.
13:19
We're going to give you the delta so that the government
13:21
doesn't shut down.
13:22
SPEAKER_00: And they won't.
13:24
SPEAKER_00: Right.
13:24
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
13:24
SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's- But then, well, we think they won't.
13:29
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
13:30
SPEAKER_00: And then the question is,
13:31
so let's speculate that in the hours between this recording and
13:38
when the episode posts,
13:39
SPEAKER_00: House Republicans-
13:40
SPEAKER_00: have passed their CR.
13:43
SPEAKER_00: It's now in the Senate.
13:45
SPEAKER_00: At that point, the question is, should Democrats filibuster?
13:50
SPEAKER_00: And you're right.
13:51
SPEAKER_00: I was like, they should drop their filibuster threat.
13:53
SPEAKER_00: But the filibuster threat...
13:56
becomes a problem if the CR itself is actually just a
14:00
continuation of the current budget,
14:02
SPEAKER_00: right?
14:03
SPEAKER_00: Like then you're in a situation where Republicans are saying,
14:05
SPEAKER_00: we don't want to make any drastic or partisan changes to –
14:11
SPEAKER_00: the national budget.
14:13
We just want to continue the old budget and it's the most
14:17
neutral possible approach.
14:19
And the only reason it's not happening is because Democrats are
14:22
filibustering
14:23
because we've got 50 or 51 or 52 or 53 Republican senators here
14:28
ready to vote yes
14:30
SPEAKER_00: for a clean CR.
14:31
SPEAKER_00: In that circumstance,
14:32
I do think that like political reality would just force
14:36
Democrats to drop the filibuster.
14:38
SPEAKER_00: They don't have to vote for the bill.
14:40
SPEAKER_00: They shouldn't vote for the bill, but they should drop the filibuster.
14:43
What Mike Johnson has done in an effort to try to get this bill
14:48
clear of the House
14:49
SPEAKER_00: is added a small but meaningful number of poison pills to it.
14:56
It is fairly standard as precedent across these kinds of
15:01
shutdown fights that the
15:03
SPEAKER_00: way to resolve them is
15:05
SPEAKER_00: when the parties are at loggerheads is to do a genuinely clean continuing
15:10
SPEAKER_00: resolution or one where it's basically like,
15:13
SPEAKER_00: we're going to go with last year's budget,
15:15
but Republicans get these concessions and Democrats get these
15:18
concessions and
15:19
SPEAKER_00: that's a fair swap.
15:20
And so everyone can be like,
15:21
all right,
15:23
we all got a little something out of this.
15:27
SPEAKER_00: So my current view consistent with the past ones is,
15:34
is that if and when this bill reaches the Senate,
15:38
Democrats should say no.
15:42
We will oppose unanimous consent to have an up or down vote on
15:45
this because it's a
15:46
SPEAKER_00: Republican bill.
15:47
If you want to strip those riders out of the bill,
15:51
we will drop the filibuster.
15:52
SPEAKER_01: So what are the top objections?
15:53
SPEAKER_01: Let's inform the people.
15:59
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
15:59
So like the one that caught my attention yesterday that
16:02
admittedly has like
16:04
personal ramifications is that they want to cut a billion
16:09
dollars out of the DC budget.
16:10
SPEAKER_00: So like the Washington DC has a balanced budget.
16:14
SPEAKER_00: Our budget is paid for by our, our DC tax dollars.
16:18
SPEAKER_00: And it's set by the city council and the mayor, just like in a state.
16:22
SPEAKER_00: Right.
16:23
SPEAKER_00: And, but because we're,
16:26
SPEAKER_00: In this constitutionally weird zone as the federal district,
16:30
SPEAKER_00: right,
16:31
SPEAKER_00: Congress has input into what the city can and can't do.
16:35
SPEAKER_00: Congress can reject D.C.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: policies out of hand.
16:39
SPEAKER_01: We basically have to – We have no federalism, right?
16:42
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
16:47
which is a limited discretionary grant of authority from the
16:52
Congress to the
16:53
SPEAKER_01: elected government.
16:54
But in principle,
16:56
Congress is fully sovereign over all questions of local policy here.
17:01
SPEAKER_01: So they could write a law that's just like...
17:05
SPEAKER_01: you know, uh, Tesla is the only car that you're allowed to buy.
17:09
SPEAKER_01: Um,
17:09
SPEAKER_01: or in this case that the DC local government needs to cut its spending,
17:14
which I assume they're going to portray as if they are like
17:18
preventing your
17:20
SPEAKER_01: hardworking tax dollars from being wasted by our nincompoop council.
17:25
But it's actually my hardworking tax dollars that they're going
17:28
to not let our
17:29
SPEAKER_01: nincompoop council waste.
17:30
SPEAKER_00: They're offering you and maybe me a tax cut.
17:34
SPEAKER_00: Uh,
17:36
SPEAKER_00: presumably like the,
17:37
SPEAKER_00: you know,
17:37
we would have a surplus and they would presumably return it to
17:40
us in the form of a
17:40
SPEAKER_00: tax cut.
17:42
But like cutting a billion dollars out of the DC budget is both
17:46
offends my small D
17:48
SPEAKER_00: democratic sensibilities.
17:49
SPEAKER_00: Like that's my government and we voted for that.
17:51
SPEAKER_00: Right.
17:52
And like actually just make the city run worse because it's not
17:57
like the city's
18:00
like a billion dollars is a lot for the city of Washington and
18:03
it's going to
18:04
SPEAKER_00: materialize in shittier services or less policing or whatever else.
18:08
SPEAKER_00: Right.
18:10
It's going to hurt the things that Donald Trump claims to want
18:13
to see get better in DC.
18:16
SPEAKER_00: And then he's going to come back and be like,
18:17
SPEAKER_00: well,
18:17
SPEAKER_00: look,
18:17
this means this increase in crime or whatever shows that we
18:21
have to take over the
18:21
city of Washington altogether because the mayor's just let
18:24
things get out of control.
18:25
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's like a, it's like a,
18:29
SPEAKER_00: like a recursive rat fucking that they want to do.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: And for that reason alone,
18:36
SPEAKER_00: like Democrats should say,
18:37
SPEAKER_00: no,
18:37
SPEAKER_00: like,
18:38
SPEAKER_00: like if you want to have a bipartisan organization,
18:44
SPEAKER_00: process for this bill.
18:47
SPEAKER_00: If you want this to look like a normal appropriations negotiation,
18:51
SPEAKER_00: you got to take that stuff out.
18:52
SPEAKER_00: Otherwise,
18:53
SPEAKER_00: like in any other appropriations debate,
18:55
SPEAKER_00: we're going to hold this to the 60 vote rule and you don't have 60 votes.
19:00
SPEAKER_01: Right.
19:00
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
19:01
SPEAKER_01: But I just like –
19:03
SPEAKER_01: I want to clarify, you know, for like meta-discoursive purposes, right?
19:09
SPEAKER_01: Like,
19:09
SPEAKER_01: that's fine,
19:10
and I think is possibly even like the endgame that we're going
19:13
to get to here.
19:15
SPEAKER_01: Like, come into the Senate, there may or may not be a shutdown, right?
19:18
SPEAKER_01: So ultimately,
19:20
Democrats may get Senate Republicans to crawl back some of
19:25
these riders that were
19:26
SPEAKER_01: put in for the sake of obtaining unanimity among House Republicans.
19:31
SPEAKER_01: But then it goes back to the House.
19:33
SPEAKER_01: It goes back to the House.
19:33
SPEAKER_01: But then – well, so I mean we'll see.
19:35
SPEAKER_01: We'll see what happens here.
19:37
SPEAKER_00: Well, no, but it's important, right?
19:38
SPEAKER_00: Like the game is still on then, right?
19:40
If Senate Republicans vow to reality,
19:42
they strip the writers out,
19:44
it goes back to Mike Johnson.
19:45
I mean,
19:46
House Democrats would have to get their act together again to
19:48
oppose that.
19:49
Well,
19:49
but then I think that there's like a conceptual problem here,
19:53
right?
19:53
SPEAKER_01: Because like your premise and mine,
19:57
SPEAKER_01: I guess,
19:57
SPEAKER_01: and I think Chuck Schumer's and certainly various litigants is that like
20:04
SPEAKER_01: Not everything that Elon Musk has done,
20:06
SPEAKER_01: but like that many of the things that Elon Musk has done are illegal.
20:11
SPEAKER_01: Right.
20:11
SPEAKER_01: And so like those are being litigated and we will see what happens.
20:17
It's not obvious to me like what you can actually ask for in
20:22
terms of like.
20:24
Putting a hat on the appropriation that's like – and also you
20:28
have to follow the
20:28
SPEAKER_01: law because like either the courts will rule.
20:32
SPEAKER_01: I mean there's many things courts can rule.
20:34
But like there's an idea out there that the Impoundment Control
20:38
Act from the 70s is
20:39
SPEAKER_01: an unconstitutional infringement on presidential authority.
20:43
SPEAKER_01: If courts agree with that argument, then just like –
20:47
Saying even more loudly,
20:50
you can't impound these funds isn't going to change that ruling.
20:53
SPEAKER_01: These things about like firing of the probationary employees.
20:57
SPEAKER_01: I mean, like, who knows?
20:58
SPEAKER_01: I haven't I haven't read that statute.
21:01
SPEAKER_01: It's, you know.
21:03
Everybody's got – they're putting the best lawsuits together
21:06
that they can.
21:09
SPEAKER_01: But we're not going to get rid of the fact that,
21:11
SPEAKER_01: like,
21:12
there are some means through which you can fire a civil servant
21:16
and that then the
21:17
president may or may not be engaged in good faith or
21:23
pretextuality down there.
21:25
SPEAKER_01: And, like, ultimately –
21:29
SPEAKER_01: You know, it's just like a little odd.
21:32
SPEAKER_01: It's like either there's like backlash or there isn't.
21:36
SPEAKER_00: So let me break in.
21:37
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
21:38
SPEAKER_00: So,
21:38
SPEAKER_00: you know,
21:38
the reason apart from like just showing some basic dignity or
21:42
whatever that I think
21:43
Democrats cannot offer a vote for this legislation or a
21:48
decisive vote specifically,
21:50
they need to be loud and they need to be saying what the way
21:53
Musk and Trump are
21:55
SPEAKER_00: impounding funds,
21:55
SPEAKER_00: cutting government is illegal.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: It is not something that we, the Congress, are okay with.
22:00
So that when it gets to the court and they have their dumb oral arguments,
22:05
SPEAKER_00: even though it's not like, right.
22:07
SPEAKER_00: Doesn't pertain to what the text or,
22:09
SPEAKER_00: or statutory history or whatever of,
22:12
SPEAKER_00: of,
22:12
SPEAKER_00: of the impoundment control act is,
22:14
SPEAKER_00: or the you know,
22:15
SPEAKER_00: the,
22:16
SPEAKER_00: the spending clause in the constitution are that if,
22:19
SPEAKER_00: if,
22:19
SPEAKER_00: if Sam Alito can just be like,
22:20
SPEAKER_00: well,
22:21
SPEAKER_00: like Congress seems to be okay with it.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: They did.
22:23
SPEAKER_00: They agreed to continue funding knowing that this,
22:26
SPEAKER_00: you know,
22:27
SPEAKER_00: program of indiscriminate cuts was happening.
22:29
SPEAKER_00: So like, it doesn't seem like there's much of a live controversy here.
22:33
SPEAKER_00: Like that's,
22:34
SPEAKER_00: That's setting themselves up to play a weak hand in court.
22:39
SPEAKER_00: There's also like,
22:40
SPEAKER_00: yes,
22:41
it is possible that this all ends with five or six Republican
22:45
Supreme Court
22:45
SPEAKER_00: justices saying everything that Musk did is fine.
22:49
The Impoundment Control Act is unconstitutional and the
22:52
Constitution doesn't
22:53
SPEAKER_00: require the president to fulfill every last appropriation to the letter.
22:59
Then we're in a new sort of system of government on the other
23:02
side of that decision.
23:03
SPEAKER_00: But between now and when that's adjudicated,
23:07
SPEAKER_00: if Musk isn't stopped,
23:08
SPEAKER_00: you end up with this pileup of claims,
23:12
SPEAKER_00: basically,
23:14
SPEAKER_00: of injuries,
23:15
SPEAKER_00: right?
23:15
And my understanding from talking to lawyers who are active in
23:18
this litigation is
23:20
SPEAKER_00: that they're already taxed.
23:23
SPEAKER_00: There's a small universe of plaintiff-side lawyers who are –
23:29
SPEAKER_01: But I'm just saying like this isn't going to be stopped, right?
23:32
SPEAKER_01: Like we're having a lot of discussions about politics and so forth.
23:35
SPEAKER_01: But like say it happens,
23:36
SPEAKER_01: say tomorrow,
23:38
SPEAKER_01: Mike Johnson,
23:39
SPEAKER_01: the bill fails,
23:40
SPEAKER_01: Mike Johnson's like,
23:41
SPEAKER_01: I got to go hat in hand to the Democrats.
23:43
And I'm going to be like,
23:44
it's a clean CR,
23:46
but the first provision is like also –
23:49
SPEAKER_01: Everything Elon Musk is doing is illegal.
23:52
SPEAKER_01: The Elon crime spree must halt.
23:55
SPEAKER_01: And it passes unanimously, right?
23:59
Such a bill passing is not going to cause the Elon Musk crime
24:03
spree to halt.
24:04
SPEAKER_01: Because again,
24:05
SPEAKER_01: I think we're engaging a lot of discourse now to set ourselves up for the
24:11
SPEAKER_01: inevitable moment when the Democrats betray you.
24:14
SPEAKER_00: No, no, no, no.
24:16
SPEAKER_00: No,
24:16
because if Democrats just don't provide the decisive votes for
24:19
this thing to pass,
24:20
SPEAKER_00: there's no betrayal.
24:21
And I think that they can hold out for something that's
24:23
actually at least plausibly enforceable,
24:27
SPEAKER_00: right?
24:28
Like if you want to like force Donald Trump to honor the
24:36
budgets that Congress
24:37
SPEAKER_00: passes the way past presidents have generally done since Nixon –
24:44
you can say,
24:45
we don't trust you,
24:46
so we're going to give you a two-month CR.
24:48
SPEAKER_00: You can say,
24:49
we are going to amend the CR to impose large civil penalties on
24:56
individual civil
24:58
SPEAKER_00: servants and political appointees who...
25:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
25:00
SPEAKER_00: yeah,
25:00
SPEAKER_00: yeah.
25:01
SPEAKER_00: You know, like, there are things you can do.
25:02
SPEAKER_01: Sure, but I guess, like, okay.
25:06
SPEAKER_01: If there was no filibuster, right, there's no controversy here.
25:12
SPEAKER_01: Correct.
25:12
SPEAKER_01: Right.
25:13
SPEAKER_01: It's just Democrats should vote no, should vote no.
25:16
SPEAKER_01: And then like it probably just passes anyway with Republican votes.
25:21
SPEAKER_01: And then Democrats continue to complain.
25:23
And then Democrats will probably take the majority in the House
25:27
in the midterms.
25:28
SPEAKER_01: And then having secured a majority in the House in the midterms,
25:32
SPEAKER_01: they can then start doing what you're saying,
25:34
SPEAKER_01: right?
25:35
SPEAKER_01: We now control the pace of the agenda.
25:37
And so we will pass a short-term CR because we don't want the
25:41
government to shut down.
25:43
SPEAKER_01: But we don't trust you.
25:44
SPEAKER_01: You can attach riders to things, right?
25:47
SPEAKER_01: Toss it to the Senate.
25:48
SPEAKER_01: Create a shutdown that is caused by the Republicans.
25:52
SPEAKER_01: And you're trying to force the president's hand.
25:55
SPEAKER_01: But right now, Democrats don't control the House, right?
25:58
SPEAKER_01: So they can engage in all kinds of position taking,
26:02
SPEAKER_01: but like they can't actually hold votes on things.
26:05
SPEAKER_01: They can't force the pace of action.
26:07
SPEAKER_01: And because there is the filibuster, it's just it's a weird thing.
26:12
SPEAKER_01: process moment in America where Democrats can,
26:17
SPEAKER_01: Senate Democrats can block things from passing,
26:21
but in neither House of Congress can Democrats force an
26:26
affirmative position.
26:29
SPEAKER_01: And like, that's just odd.
26:31
SPEAKER_01: Like, it's not a set of procedures that I approve of.
26:36
SPEAKER_01: And,
26:37
SPEAKER_01: you know,
26:37
it means that I think like the agency ultimately is just in the
26:41
hands of Republicans,
26:44
SPEAKER_01: fundamentally,
26:46
SPEAKER_01: if they can stay unified and
26:48
SPEAKER_01: You know, they're going to they're going to carry the day.
26:51
SPEAKER_01: And the question is, like, on what terms will they carry the day?
26:55
SPEAKER_01: Like,
26:55
will it be a nuclear option that ends filibustering on
26:59
appropriations bills,
27:01
SPEAKER_01: which doesn't seem like a terrible outcome to me?
27:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
27:05
SPEAKER_01: you know, so they can pass in a party line vote?
27:08
Is it the Democrats,
27:10
you know,
27:10
just kind of take a dive and allow cloture?
27:13
SPEAKER_01: Is it that we have a shutdown?
27:15
But then like after the shutdown,
27:17
the frontline Democrats kind of get cold feet.
27:19
SPEAKER_01: Because like,
27:20
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:21
SPEAKER_01: that like,
27:24
SPEAKER_01: like they're,
27:25
they're not going to pursue a indefinite government shutdown
27:30
over the DC budget.
27:33
SPEAKER_00: I don't know that.
27:35
And like there is a backdrop for this that I think that we
27:37
should mostly confine to
27:39
SPEAKER_00: the other side of the paywall,
27:41
SPEAKER_00: which is that Trump is like sending the economy into a recession,
27:45
SPEAKER_00: it seems like.
27:47
SPEAKER_00: Like Elon Musk is incredibly unpopular.
27:50
SPEAKER_00: His businesses are failing.
27:51
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
27:53
SPEAKER_00: The moment seems ripe,
27:55
SPEAKER_00: I think,
27:55
SPEAKER_00: for Democrats to be like,
27:57
SPEAKER_00: this approach,
27:58
SPEAKER_00: what we're trying to stop,
27:59
what Republicans are insisting on continuing is the reason why
28:03
your 401ks are crashing,
28:04
SPEAKER_00: why you're going to lose your job.
28:05
SPEAKER_00: I agree.
28:08
I think that's great as long as there isn't an actual
28:11
government shutdown.
28:13
SPEAKER_01: This is just like what I keep saying.
28:14
SPEAKER_01: There's a difference between in a proper parliament –
28:18
SPEAKER_01: where Democrats would not have the ability to block this from passing.
28:24
SPEAKER_01: It's just a question of what position should you take.
28:27
SPEAKER_01: Then I'm in 100% agreement with you.
28:29
Democrats' position should be that all these terrible things
28:33
are happening because
28:34
SPEAKER_01: it's Donald Trump's fault,
28:36
SPEAKER_01: that we won't provide any votes to continue on this course of action.
28:39
SPEAKER_01: It's bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.
28:40
SPEAKER_01: But that isn't the rule that we have.
28:43
SPEAKER_01: The debate is going to become
28:46
Should all national parks be closed because Democrats are
28:50
taking this position?
28:51
SPEAKER_01: And I think it's going to make it a challenging position to defend.
28:57
And we and we should talk about the economy and all Elon's
28:59
troubles somewhat separately.
29:01
I will like concede that because I like I invented the position
29:07
that like I think
29:08
SPEAKER_00: that the I think that the politics become impossible or very tough.
29:13
SPEAKER_00: If you have a clean CR and 50 Republican senators ready to pass it,
29:17
SPEAKER_00: and then Democrats are just like,
29:19
SPEAKER_00: even though this is status quo budget,
29:22
we are going to block it from passing because of the Musk-Trump
29:30
crime spree,
29:31
SPEAKER_00: right?
29:31
SPEAKER_00: I think that that is the correct answer.
29:37
substantive thing to have happen is for the shutdown to happen
29:40
no matter what until
29:41
SPEAKER_00: Elon Musk goes away.
29:44
But I acknowledge that it's much easier for Republicans to go
29:47
out to the public and
29:48
SPEAKER_00: be like,
29:48
SPEAKER_00: we are just trying to keep the lights on with a like,
29:53
SPEAKER_00: you know,
29:53
SPEAKER_00: no one's ox is gored.
29:54
SPEAKER_00: We are just trying to continue the last budget.
29:58
SPEAKER_00: And Democrats are saying that's not good enough.
30:01
SPEAKER_00: They want unilateral concessions.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: And then
30:04
People will go to Democrats and be like,
30:06
why don't you just reopen the government?
30:10
SPEAKER_00: The onus changes if the CR is not clean.
30:14
SPEAKER_00: Democrats say that's a Republican budget.
30:17
SPEAKER_00: They need our votes to pass it,
30:20
but we're not going to give it to them until they take all
30:22
their special goodies out.
30:24
I think that that's a winnable argument and Democrats can hold
30:27
to it for a week or
30:29
SPEAKER_00: whatever until the riders get stripped out.
30:31
And then we have to go around again because obviously if the
30:34
Senate passes a
30:34
SPEAKER_00: different bill,
30:35
it goes back to the House and then Jeffries has to run his whip
30:40
operation again and
30:41
Mike Johnson has to run his whip operation again and we don't
30:43
know where that ends.
30:44
SPEAKER_00: But that's where we ought to end up.
30:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
30:49
SPEAKER_00: is in that morass.
30:50
And I'm not going to go out there if Democrats drop their
30:55
filibuster on a clean CR
30:58
SPEAKER_00: and say they betrayed us.
30:59
Because that would be me just moving the goalposts and saying
31:01
that nothing they do
31:03
SPEAKER_00: could ever make me happy.
31:04
SPEAKER_00: And if they just meet my requests, I change them.
31:08
SPEAKER_00: But they really should not end up in a situation where they just cave and
31:14
SPEAKER_00: give Republicans the votes that a bad bill would need to pass.
31:20
That's never been the understood,
31:23
fair,
31:24
equitable resolution to these kinds of standoffs.
31:26
SPEAKER_00: It's like, nope, clean CR or nothing.
31:29
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, that's fine, I guess.
31:31
SPEAKER_00: Okay,
31:32
SPEAKER_00: well,
31:32
SPEAKER_00: let's talk about why,
31:33
whether the fact that this is all happening against the
31:35
backdrop of a Trump-induced
31:38
SPEAKER_00: market crash is...
31:41
to Democrats' benefit in the shutdown fight and also how they
31:45
should lean into it.
31:47
SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear that part of the conversation,
31:49
SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.