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The Favorites - March Madness Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. We are
0:18
Speaker 1: live from our tummy John Home Studios. I'm joined as
0:21
Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my
0:24
Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter, and also Simon.
0:29
Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, It's mid March. What are we talking? We
0:32
Speaker 2: talk in baseball? We talking Premier League. What are we
0:34
Speaker 2: talking today?
0:35
Speaker 3: Brother?
0:35
Speaker 1: Oh, you're a teaser. You know what we're talking about.
0:39
Speaker 1: It's the high holy week of the NFL off season.
0:43
Speaker 4: Here at Action Network.
0:44
Speaker 1: March Madness has arrived in the first run of the
0:48
Speaker 1: NCAA Tournament. Starts this Thursday with sixteen games and then
0:51
Speaker 1: sixteen more on Friday. It's a gambling extravaganza for college
0:58
Speaker 1: hoops fans all weekend long. March Madness always a warm
1:04
Speaker 1: spot in my heart, just because you know, my best
1:08
Speaker 1: selling book, The Odds was based entirely on tracking college
1:12
Speaker 1: basketball betters through the college basketball season. Today, we're going
1:18
Speaker 1: to get ready for all things betting for the big
1:20
Speaker 1: Dance to close today's show. Like we do during the
1:22
Speaker 1: NFL season, We've got our director of Research, Evan Abrams,
1:26
Speaker 1: who will deliver the last word with his favorite tournament
1:30
Speaker 1: betting trends. But right now, a man who I would
1:34
Speaker 1: have profiled in the odds if he had been alive
1:38
Speaker 1: back then. We welcome long time contributor to our Big
1:42
Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast, a college hoops fanatic, one third
1:46
Speaker 1: of the popular group three man Weave, the University of
1:49
Speaker 1: Missouri's finest Welcome to the show, Jim Root.
1:56
Speaker 5: There we go, let's do it. How young do you
1:58
Speaker 5: think I am? Chad? You don't think I was a
1:59
Speaker 5: lot like.
2:00
Speaker 4: I wanted to make you feel good.
2:02
Speaker 5: Okay, I'll take it.
2:03
Speaker 3: I'll think you.
2:03
Speaker 1: No, you got so much grief before we came on
2:05
Speaker 1: the air, because you're from like a town outside Milwaukee
2:08
Speaker 1: that Matt Mitchell happens to know, and so he was
2:11
Speaker 1: excited to rip it. And so I just wanted to
2:13
Speaker 1: make you feel a little bit better. And you know, Deage,
2:16
Speaker 1: you a little bit.
2:17
Speaker 5: Needed the good vibes. I appreciate that.
2:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's been a busy, you know what, thirty six
2:22
Speaker 6: hours since the bracket dropped, But we're getting closer to
2:24
Speaker 6: the end of the tunnel of content and actually getting
2:27
Speaker 6: to games.
2:28
Speaker 5: So ready to chop it up with you guys.
2:29
Speaker 6: I feel like my takes are warmed up, they're sharpened,
2:32
Speaker 6: ready to really dig in here.
2:34
Speaker 4: Well, you have no choice.
2:35
Speaker 1: By the way, Jim will be joining us in Chicago
2:39
Speaker 1: for our live Elite eight show, which I'll share more
2:43
Speaker 1: details about in one moment. If you are listening this
2:47
Speaker 1: to this in Illinois, big news, folks, the favorite podcast
2:53
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five is now live in
2:56
Speaker 1: my home state of Illinois and the new Bet three
3:00
Speaker 1: sixty five. Customers, including those in Illinois, get one hundred
3:03
Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.
3:07
Speaker 1: Sign up using promo code Favorites to posit ten dollars,
3:10
Speaker 1: place a bet for five dollars to get one hundred
3:12
Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can
3:15
Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.
3:17
Speaker 4: And more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.
3:20
Speaker 1: At Bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois. Must be
3:25
Speaker 1: twenty one or older. In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
3:31
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
3:34
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
3:38
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
3:41
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. As I mentioned, Jim will be joining us
3:46
Speaker 1: for our Elite eight March Madness Games event on Saturday,
3:52
Speaker 1: March twenty ninth at Joe's on Weed in the beautiful
3:56
Speaker 1: City of Chicago, Illinois. Free event, free drinks, free life
4:00
Speaker 1: show with Stucky Jim RSVP. To reserve your spot, follow
4:05
Speaker 1: the link in this episode description or google favorite podcast
4:11
Speaker 1: event Chicago and our SVP. The site will pop right up.
4:17
Speaker 1: We're excited to have Jim on the show. Excited to
4:19
Speaker 1: have Jim and the three man Weave crew join us
4:22
Speaker 1: for the event in Chicago.
4:25
Speaker 4: Jim, from your point of view, you have.
4:28
Speaker 1: Been a college basketball betting expert for a very long time.
4:33
Speaker 1: I know deeply how connected you are both to betting
4:37
Speaker 1: and college basketball. Does this tournament feel especially top heavy?
4:44
Speaker 5: Yes?
4:46
Speaker 6: I typically am trying to find the underdogs I like most,
4:50
Speaker 6: and I'm setting up my final four with absolutely no
4:53
Speaker 6: more than two to one seeds. Who else can I
4:55
Speaker 6: get in the mix? To GetUp there, and I keep
4:57
Speaker 6: coming back to probably three one seed, and at that
5:00
Speaker 6: point I'm forcing somebody that's not a fourth one seed
5:03
Speaker 6: to get in there. These four teams are so good
5:06
Speaker 6: and analytically they've separated themselves. Whether you look at Ken, Palm, Bart, Torvik,
5:10
Speaker 6: wherever you want your predictive rankings to come from, they've
5:13
Speaker 6: separated there.
5:14
Speaker 5: And even further down the bracket, it's top heavy.
5:18
Speaker 6: I'll give a shout out to Will Warren. He's got
5:20
Speaker 6: a great website writing about college hoops. But the top
5:22
Speaker 6: like twenty five teams are better than a standard top
5:26
Speaker 6: twenty five, and so that means your four seeds, your
5:28
Speaker 6: five seeds. Perhaps that's going to lead to less upsets
5:32
Speaker 6: in that part of the bracket too.
5:33
Speaker 5: I hope not. We want a little early chaos.
5:35
Speaker 6: Would love to see that some March madness magic, but
5:38
Speaker 6: I think it's worth monitoring and potentially we do get
5:41
Speaker 6: some sort of chalk heavy bracket as we go through
5:43
Speaker 6: this big dance.
5:45
Speaker 1: If you are putting in your the three top seeds
5:50
Speaker 1: to make it, I'm assuming it's Duke Florida, Auburn, Houston
5:56
Speaker 1: is out, or am I making an ass out of
5:59
Speaker 1: you and me.
6:00
Speaker 5: Yeah, how dare you?
6:01
Speaker 3: Chad?
6:02
Speaker 5: No, I would have Houston in there.
6:03
Speaker 6: Actually, I just mean there is some question around Jaywin
6:07
Speaker 6: Roberts's ankle, and they have got definitely the hardest eight
6:10
Speaker 6: nine draw. With Gonzaga waiting there in the second round,
6:14
Speaker 6: I think all the math will tell you that's a really,
6:15
Speaker 6: really tough game for him. The one I don't have
6:18
Speaker 6: right now, I don't should I spot spoil.
6:20
Speaker 5: My final four is that am I allowed to.
6:21
Speaker 4: Do whatever you want? Man, free flowing show, do whatever
6:25
Speaker 4: you need to do.
6:26
Speaker 6: The one I don't have is Florida, And that hurts
6:29
Speaker 6: me because every time I watch them, I just can't
6:32
Speaker 6: stop like professing how good they are. But they've become
6:35
Speaker 6: such a darling. Everybody's picking them in the title, like
6:39
Speaker 6: ESPN every show. Right after they're like, well it's got.
6:41
Speaker 5: To be Florida.
6:42
Speaker 6: They just won the SEC why can't they win the
6:43
Speaker 6: national title? I have some questions there. I mean, they've
6:47
Speaker 6: got great depth, but they if their three guards aren't
6:51
Speaker 6: making shots, the perimeter can get a little bit dicey.
6:54
Speaker 6: I've seen them get punked early in games a couple
6:57
Speaker 6: of times. Georgia did it to him. My Missouri Tigers
6:59
Speaker 6: did it to him in Gainesville, and then Todd Golden's
7:02
Speaker 6: never won a tournament game, and that's not like an eliminator.
7:06
Speaker 6: It's not impossible to go win the tournament, but you'd
7:09
Speaker 6: like to have one under your belt before you have
7:11
Speaker 6: to go win six, including two on the biggest stage.
7:14
Speaker 6: So Florida is the one I'm barely leaving out. You
7:17
Speaker 6: could probably leave Auburn out given the way their performance
7:20
Speaker 6: has been lately. I just don't really like anybody else
7:22
Speaker 6: in that region, so I kind of end up defaulting
7:24
Speaker 6: to the Tigers there, and then Duke's just kind of
7:27
Speaker 6: otherworldly right now, as long as flag is healthy.
7:30
Speaker 1: You didn't give us your final four, though, because you
7:34
Speaker 1: gave us three of the number one, and so now
7:37
Speaker 1: that was good. Like we're going to foreshadow and tease
7:40
Speaker 1: for a little bit later in the show, Simon.
7:44
Speaker 4: Before we came on.
7:45
Speaker 1: Earlier today, you were dropping hints about amongst your professional
7:52
Speaker 1: gambling group chat like teams that were starting to get
7:57
Speaker 1: talked about.
7:59
Speaker 5: Can you share, Yeah, it's I would say, just from
8:03
Speaker 5: the top.
8:03
Speaker 2: The group I talk to are the guys I followed
8:06
Speaker 2: for college basketball, are old, like average age seventy two,
8:11
Speaker 2: like legit old dudes, and they are very about that
8:15
Speaker 2: Big East action. They love the Big East like that is,
8:19
Speaker 2: even though it's not what it used to be. They're
8:21
Speaker 2: always biased towards it, and you know, obviously it's worked
8:24
Speaker 2: out for him, right The Yukon has just been an
8:26
Speaker 2: incredible run. That was a team they were biased to.
8:28
Speaker 2: This year, it really is Saint John's and I would
8:30
Speaker 2: love to get your perspective of it where everyone's talking
8:33
Speaker 2: Duke Florida. These guys love not only the way that
8:36
Speaker 2: Saint John's playing, but the fact of their coach has
8:39
Speaker 2: been there before with multiple different programs and has done
8:42
Speaker 2: it before. Is that a team that is no longer
8:45
Speaker 2: a sleeper because they're so talked about but loved bhite people.
8:47
Speaker 2: Are they still, as you view as a better a
8:49
Speaker 2: team that not enough people are giving respect to because
8:51
Speaker 2: you know, Saint John's is being painted as having a
8:53
Speaker 2: really tough road to getting to the finals.
8:55
Speaker 4: He's also the same age as all the people in
8:58
Speaker 4: that group.
8:58
Speaker 6: Text exactly, No, I'm a buyer of Saint John's. I
9:04
Speaker 6: think that region is so loaded. It's probably my favorite, well,
9:08
Speaker 6: well maybe not my favorite one.
9:10
Speaker 5: But it's my.
9:10
Speaker 6: Favorite two, it's my favorite three, probably my favorite four
9:13
Speaker 6: of all those seed lines, So that makes it really
9:16
Speaker 6: tough to pick. But Saint John's they you just know
9:18
Speaker 6: they're never going to lay an egg, like you're getting
9:21
Speaker 6: an A plus effort from them. Patino is such a
9:23
Speaker 6: great motivator. The defense is absurd, the floor is really high, Like,
9:27
Speaker 6: I don't think this team is remotely prone to an
9:29
Speaker 6: upset because you're just you're not gonna get a stinker
9:32
Speaker 6: on that end, and you have the ceiling outcomes where
9:35
Speaker 6: if they make shots like that, that's the variance for
9:38
Speaker 6: them is if they actually have a game where the
9:40
Speaker 6: threes go in, they're gonna look incredible. They're just so
9:42
Speaker 6: good at everything else, like the turnover margin, the rebounding margin.
9:46
Speaker 5: They win those.
9:47
Speaker 6: They stress you on the perimeter more than you're typically
9:50
Speaker 6: used to because they've got size and athleticism and they're physical.
9:53
Speaker 6: It's kind of a handsy Patino approach on the perimeter.
9:55
Speaker 6: I'm sure those big East guys love seeing that. I
9:59
Speaker 6: think they're just they' high floor. And then you get
10:01
Speaker 6: them in the sweet sixteen against whether it's Texas Tech
10:04
Speaker 6: or whoever. And then Florida and they lead eight. If
10:07
Speaker 6: they make seven or eight threes, this team is unbeatable.
10:10
Speaker 6: So I totally buy them as though.
10:12
Speaker 5: So did you throw a little bet on twenty five
10:13
Speaker 5: to one to win the title? Yeah? Yeah, I don't
10:17
Speaker 5: mind that.
10:18
Speaker 6: I mean it's analytically they haven't performed that well, like
10:21
Speaker 6: the fact that they're not inside the top ten at
10:22
Speaker 6: Ken Palm's a little surprising given their record, But I
10:25
Speaker 6: think part of that is they didn't smack teams in
10:28
Speaker 6: the in the non conference the way maybe they would
10:29
Speaker 6: have hoped to, Like, they didn't beat teams by forty
10:32
Speaker 6: they were winning by twenty five instead, And at that
10:34
Speaker 6: point that's kind of a diminishing returns.
10:38
Speaker 5: From me in terms of predictive value with big teams.
10:40
Speaker 5: So I buy that.
10:42
Speaker 1: You know, you just mentioned Saint John's. I feel like
10:48
Speaker 1: it looks like they're the last two seed on the
10:50
Speaker 1: two line right and now they've got to travel cross
10:54
Speaker 1: country to go play in a game. Do you think
10:57
Speaker 1: they would have been better off being the first three
11:00
Speaker 1: seed and getting to go play in New Jersey?
11:05
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think they would have adored being in Newark,
11:08
Speaker 6: even if it's Duke they're playing there. All the one
11:11
Speaker 6: seeds are good, so there's not like a big downgrade there,
11:14
Speaker 6: and the crowd they would have going Providence Newark. Everybody
11:18
Speaker 6: talked about it last year with Yukon not having to
11:20
Speaker 6: get on a flight, Like if you're just bussing everywhere
11:22
Speaker 6: you need to go from New York, there is an
11:25
Speaker 6: advantage in that, and I think just with the crowd
11:28
Speaker 6: and with the travel ease, they probably would have preferred that.
11:32
Speaker 6: I always think it would be fun if the selection
11:34
Speaker 6: committee released one through sixty eight and every team got
11:37
Speaker 6: to pick their spot in order, you know, like if
11:39
Speaker 6: they would have said, well, yeah, we'll take the three
11:41
Speaker 6: in the East over the two out west and kind
11:43
Speaker 6: of let the chips fall where they may.
11:45
Speaker 1: Isn't an amazing how Patino does it everywhere he goes.
11:48
Speaker 1: Within moments he's got this team turned around, and moments
11:53
Speaker 1: to me is a season or two right where it
11:56
Speaker 1: doesn't matter what the school has been, He's always done it.
12:00
Speaker 1: As a guy who watches so much college basketball, Jim,
12:03
Speaker 1: what have you seen from Patino?
12:05
Speaker 4: The way he coaches?
12:06
Speaker 1: You mentioned the way he motivates that it just isn't
12:10
Speaker 1: replicable from other coaches that only he can execute on
12:15
Speaker 1: these quick tonearounds.
12:16
Speaker 6: Yeah, the way he coaches effort is really stunning to me.
12:21
Speaker 6: I mean, the guys play their tails off, and there's
12:24
Speaker 6: a few other coaches that I think do it relatively consistently,
12:28
Speaker 6: Like Buzz Williams has this Shaka smart kind of has
12:31
Speaker 6: it the way the guys played defensively, but then he
12:34
Speaker 6: pairs it with like really smart offensive basketball and they
12:38
Speaker 6: can't shoot, but they know it, like they're fairly self aware,
12:41
Speaker 6: and they get good shots and like, all right, what
12:44
Speaker 6: are we actually good at. Let's not lean into a weakness,
12:46
Speaker 6: Let's really dig into a strength. And I don't think
12:49
Speaker 6: other coaches necessarily have that. And then just there's some
12:53
Speaker 6: intrinsic parts of it too, of like instilling confidence, letting
12:57
Speaker 6: guys like really go and be who they are as players.
13:00
Speaker 6: I think other times, when maybe a guy transfers from
13:03
Speaker 6: one coach to another, he's not sure where his role
13:05
Speaker 6: is gonna fall, how he should play within a new system.
13:08
Speaker 6: And it seems like Patino just gets these guys comfortable immediately,
13:12
Speaker 6: and that's hard to do, especially he brought in some
13:14
Speaker 6: guys with high usage rates at previous schools.
13:16
Speaker 5: Davon Smith, Kadia, Richmond.
13:18
Speaker 6: They've taken less shots this year, used less possessions and
13:22
Speaker 6: still still seem very comfortable and winning helps. But you know,
13:25
Speaker 6: it's kind of a what came first, the chicken or
13:27
Speaker 6: the egg there.
13:28
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting. Kyla Parti too.
13:31
Speaker 1: When he was recruiting at Kentucky, he would always talk
13:34
Speaker 1: about and you would always hear the players talk about
13:36
Speaker 1: He's not promised me a starting gig. He's not promising
13:40
Speaker 1: me high usage rates. He's just telling me of how
13:44
Speaker 1: he is going to use me and making me feel good.
13:47
Speaker 1: And I like seeing like these old head coaches who
13:52
Speaker 1: have become so adept at changing the way they coach
13:56
Speaker 1: and communicating with players and then succeeding. I mean, look
14:00
Speaker 1: Arkansas too, Kyla Parti's taking a team of the tournament again.
14:04
Speaker 1: It would be a dream to get Kyla Pari and
14:08
Speaker 1: Rit Patino, you know, a throwback to nineties college basketball,
14:14
Speaker 1: early two thousands college basketball royalty going at each other again.
14:20
Speaker 4: I think I haven't asked you a question yet.
14:23
Speaker 1: I think both of these guys, I'm just pontificating, you know,
14:26
Speaker 1: because it's because it's what I want to do right now.
14:29
Speaker 1: All means I think these guys are tailor made for
14:33
Speaker 1: this social media age.
14:35
Speaker 3: Yeah.
14:35
Speaker 6: Well, I think there's some coaches that have seen the
14:40
Speaker 6: changing of the tides and have been like, I don't
14:42
Speaker 6: want to be a part of this version. And those
14:45
Speaker 6: two have adapted so smoothly. I mean I used to
14:49
Speaker 6: always call Cali Pari like the car salesman, Like he
14:52
Speaker 6: can kind of figure out the pitch to anybody, and
14:55
Speaker 6: even as generations change, he can scale that pitch to
14:59
Speaker 6: whoever he needs too.
15:01
Speaker 5: He's a good talker, that's for sure.
15:03
Speaker 6: And Patino clearly has that gear too, and that helps
15:06
Speaker 6: with recruiting, It helps with motivating, it helps with game planning.
15:09
Speaker 6: I have been very impressed, and yeah, it would be
15:12
Speaker 6: funny to see Kentucky Louisville rivalry reborn with those coaches,
15:16
Speaker 6: only it's Saint John's Arkansas instead. They're different shades of
15:19
Speaker 6: red in that one.
15:22
Speaker 1: I think I think calling the car salesman diminishes his
15:26
Speaker 1: skill because that feels like a pejorative.
15:28
Speaker 5: That's true, that's true.
15:29
Speaker 4: He's guys.
15:31
Speaker 1: You put them on social media like Patino this year
15:34
Speaker 1: the locker room, the way those clips have come out,
15:38
Speaker 1: that has been glorious. Those are perfect recruiting tools to
15:43
Speaker 1: get new players coming in. Simon, you're shaking your head.
15:46
Speaker 1: I feel like you've fallen in love with Patino this year.
15:49
Speaker 7: I have.
15:50
Speaker 2: And this is someone that legitily hated this guy, Like,
15:53
Speaker 2: you know, yeah, he rubbed me the wrong way, brother,
15:55
Speaker 2: Like his whole thing of being like, I'm the shit,
15:58
Speaker 2: You're all idiots. You know, obviously we know what he
16:02
Speaker 2: did off the court. I don't really hold that against
16:04
Speaker 2: It was more about his person on the court. Now
16:07
Speaker 2: I've come full three to six round. I'm like, oh,
16:09
Speaker 2: talk your shit, Brick, like you're that dude, you're running
16:12
Speaker 2: the show. And the fact that he's turned Saint John's around.
16:15
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think in my lifetime, Chad, I
16:19
Speaker 2: don't think they were good in my lifetime. Like that
16:21
Speaker 2: was all before my really coming into college basketball. Then
16:24
Speaker 2: being relevant and especially being the Northeast, you always hear
16:27
Speaker 2: about them and they should be able to recruit. They're
16:30
Speaker 2: the team of New York. All this nonsense never mattered.
16:33
Speaker 2: And they bring him the right coach and he turns
16:35
Speaker 2: on around. That's why we love I mean, you're talking about,
16:38
Speaker 2: you know, coaches going to different places like it's It's
16:43
Speaker 2: one of my favorite parts off college basketball is how
16:44
Speaker 2: important the head coach is because it is just five starters, right,
16:47
Speaker 2: and you get the right guy in there. He brings
16:49
Speaker 2: in the right talent and he could change everything. And
16:51
Speaker 2: you know you're talking Calipari. I think anyone can remember, right,
16:54
Speaker 2: New Hampshire was that what the school was a turn around?
16:56
Speaker 2: And then with mass UMass and then went to Memphis,
16:59
Speaker 2: and it's like these schools that are irrelevant you never
17:02
Speaker 2: hear about. That's what great coaches can do, right, They
17:05
Speaker 2: can go there and make them somebody. So yeah, I
17:08
Speaker 2: know this is becoming a heavy Saint John's podcast, but
17:11
Speaker 2: it's like every professional better I've talked to in the
17:14
Speaker 2: last three or four days, they just keep bringing them
17:16
Speaker 2: up and they just keep saying like this is the
17:19
Speaker 2: exact type of team and guy that pulls off a
17:21
Speaker 2: run on us in a year where I don't know
17:24
Speaker 2: if you have the same view of it, Jim, but
17:26
Speaker 2: it really is no one. There is no guarantee like
17:29
Speaker 2: we've had Yukon the last two years being the kind
17:30
Speaker 2: of guaranteed team.
17:32
Speaker 5: This year, it really is pick or poison.
17:34
Speaker 2: Like everyone's gonna look like an idiot and someone's gonna
17:36
Speaker 2: look like they're really smart the end of it, because
17:38
Speaker 2: it is all so many random teams. Is there really
17:40
Speaker 2: a team that you know to you person that's jumping
17:43
Speaker 2: out to no one's talking about or is it kind
17:44
Speaker 2: of like you just said, is it the four or
17:46
Speaker 2: five really good teams and the rest are kind of trailing.
17:49
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's that's more what it's been. It's basically like
17:52
Speaker 6: we have four Yukon's this year. Like if you kind
17:54
Speaker 6: of had really elite competition last year, maybe they would
17:58
Speaker 6: have run into some some trouble in the final four
18:00
Speaker 6: and Zach Edy tried, but you know that perduc team
18:03
Speaker 6: just wasn't quite on their level. I'd see, like if
18:06
Speaker 6: we get a Florida versus Duke final or Houston versus
18:10
Speaker 6: Duke semifinal, like that could go in any direction, just
18:13
Speaker 6: clash of the Titans kind of thing. Further down like
18:16
Speaker 6: the twos and three seeds, maybe somebody can win, Like
18:19
Speaker 6: we got Tennessee just knocked off Auburn on a neutral court. Okay,
18:22
Speaker 6: maybe Auburn's a little bit vulnerable. Florida lost at Georgia,
18:26
Speaker 6: lost at.
18:26
Speaker 5: Home in the Missouri.
18:27
Speaker 6: Like, these teams aren't invincible, but I think when you know,
18:31
Speaker 6: push comes to shove on the biggest stage, we're going
18:33
Speaker 6: to see them at their best, their best versions. And
18:35
Speaker 6: I would be pretty surprised if any of those four
18:37
Speaker 6: one seeds went down before Sweet sixteen, and even Elite
18:40
Speaker 6: eight I think would surprise me a little bit.
18:42
Speaker 1: So we just talked a lot about Saint John's, but
18:44
Speaker 1: also in that region Gonzaga, Georgia and you talked about
18:49
Speaker 1: earlier in the show. Saint John's is not a team
18:52
Speaker 1: that any of their predictive analytics sort of what the
18:56
Speaker 1: selection committee is looking at to make decisions, we're anywhere
18:59
Speaker 1: near the Gonzaga. Nearly all of their predictive analytics were
19:04
Speaker 1: in the top ten. They just didn't have a lot
19:06
Speaker 1: of good wins. We're talking about Thursday games. Is Gonzaga
19:13
Speaker 1: a team that could be one of your favorite picks
19:17
Speaker 1: for Thursday? If not, who are your favorite picks for Thursday?
19:22
Speaker 5: Yeah, this one's kind of odd.
19:23
Speaker 6: I actually lean towards Georgia there, despite as good as
19:26
Speaker 6: Gonzaga has been and Georgia on the spread, I will
19:29
Speaker 6: advance Gonzaga, but that spreads around a touchdown that's.
19:33
Speaker 5: A little too much.
19:34
Speaker 6: George's played a similar kind of copy of Gonzaga, like
19:37
Speaker 6: Florida is somewhat modeled after the Gonzaga approach of two bigs,
19:41
Speaker 6: play up and down, really bludging the rim. And Georgia
19:44
Speaker 6: got up by twenty five against Florida. Now they let
19:46
Speaker 6: them all the way back in had to win in
19:48
Speaker 6: the final minute, But I still think it's representative of
19:51
Speaker 6: what they can do against that kind of approach, and
19:52
Speaker 6: they've got a ton of physicality. They've got like six
19:54
Speaker 6: different bigs they can rotate against Ek and Gonzaga's front line.
19:58
Speaker 6: So leaning away from there, Memphis is one of my
20:03
Speaker 6: favorite first round that's they are an underdog in a
20:06
Speaker 6: five to twelve game as the five seed, that's going
20:09
Speaker 6: to catch a lot of eyes. But the big thing
20:11
Speaker 6: for me there is Memphis is poor in predictive analytics
20:15
Speaker 6: because they're terrible against bad teams. Like they are the
20:19
Speaker 6: opposite of a computer trigger, where when they play somebody
20:21
Speaker 6: they're a twenty point favorite against, they win by seven,
20:24
Speaker 6: and when they're a thirty point favorite, they win by
20:26
Speaker 6: seven again. Like they just don't really blow teams out.
20:29
Speaker 6: But if you put a team across from them that
20:30
Speaker 6: they view as their equal and top twenty five, top
20:33
Speaker 6: fifty ish competition. That's when gozer, that's when Memphis shines.
20:37
Speaker 6: And I think we'll see that against Colorado State. Maybe
20:40
Speaker 6: it'll chip on the shoulder like we're underdogs against the
20:42
Speaker 6: twelve seed. After all we did in the non conference,
20:45
Speaker 6: they played one of the best schedules of anybody in
20:47
Speaker 6: the entire country, flew all over the country, so I'm
20:49
Speaker 6: not worried about them going all the way across to
20:51
Speaker 6: Seattle for this game. I think it sets up well
20:54
Speaker 6: for Penny Hardaway to play the disrespect card in the locker.
20:57
Speaker 5: Room and you get a Memphis win there in the
20:59
Speaker 5: first round.
21:00
Speaker 1: Well, look, Memphis, a lot of people would argue, especially
21:03
Speaker 1: because of their injury issues, probably shouldn't be higher than
21:06
Speaker 1: an eight seed, and so the five seed is a
21:08
Speaker 1: little bit of a surprise.
21:10
Speaker 4: Also, I like that you're.
21:11
Speaker 1: Picking Memphis because that is the twelve to five matchup that,
21:15
Speaker 1: if I had to bet, was going to be the
21:18
Speaker 1: one where the majority of bracketeers.
21:21
Speaker 4: Aren't choosing the twelve.
21:23
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it wouldn't mathematically make sense for them to
21:25
Speaker 6: do it. Like I couldn't hold it against anybody to say, look,
21:28
Speaker 6: Colorado States favorite, Why wouldn't I try to get some
21:30
Speaker 6: upset points if my pool has it? But yeah, I
21:33
Speaker 6: just I think the way, you know, the stat that
21:36
Speaker 6: I keep going back to for that game is if
21:38
Speaker 6: you filter Bart Torovik's website for games just against top
21:41
Speaker 6: fifty opponents, Memphis is twenty fifth and Colorado State's one hundredth,
21:45
Speaker 6: and they're both playing a top fifty opponent here, and
21:49
Speaker 6: yet the team that's way way lower in that kind
21:51
Speaker 6: of a stratosphere of games is the favorite. Yeah, I'll
21:56
Speaker 6: at least take the points there, and again I think
21:58
Speaker 6: Memphis wins out right.
22:00
Speaker 4: Who else are you eyeing for Thursday?
22:03
Speaker 6: Some of my stronger leans here are totals, So can
22:08
Speaker 6: I go in that direction?
22:09
Speaker 4: We accept those, right, it's a betting podcast.
22:12
Speaker 1: We're not interested in just sort of the bad bets
22:15
Speaker 1: that you can parlay into your favorite team. We want
22:18
Speaker 1: the best bets with the best edges, no matter the market.
22:22
Speaker 6: Beautiful, I can do that, Okay, two totals I like
22:25
Speaker 6: quite a bit, high Point and Purdue the over. I'm
22:28
Speaker 6: actually surprised this one hasn't gone up from one fifty
22:30
Speaker 6: three and a half. I thought the market would kind
22:32
Speaker 6: of jump on this one. The tempos the question mark
22:35
Speaker 6: is it going to be fast enough, But I think
22:37
Speaker 6: the efficiency is going to be ridiculous in this game.
22:40
Speaker 6: I don't really see how either team gets to stop.
22:42
Speaker 6: The problem that High Point had in their rare games
22:45
Speaker 6: where they did have issues was a really dominant ball
22:48
Speaker 6: screen point guard operator that's comfortable in the mid range
22:51
Speaker 6: against their drop coverage. And Braden Smith's probably the best
22:55
Speaker 6: point guard in that system in the entire country. I
22:57
Speaker 6: think he'll light them up both as a scorer and passer.
23:01
Speaker 6: But then the other end, High Point top twenty five offense,
23:04
Speaker 6: they get downhill, they've got guys that can get to
23:05
Speaker 6: the rim, They've got a great offensive rebounder in Bodo
23:08
Speaker 6: Bodo in the paint, and Perdue's rim defense is non existent,
23:12
Speaker 6: like one of the worst in the country despite being
23:15
Speaker 6: a Big ten team.
23:16
Speaker 5: They don't have any shot blocking.
23:18
Speaker 6: I think that's going to be a real problem and
23:20
Speaker 6: you just see points back and forth. The other big total.
23:22
Speaker 6: I like Clemson and McNeice the under in that one,
23:27
Speaker 6: and this one is really tempo based, where I think
23:29
Speaker 6: both will slow each other down. They kind of press
23:33
Speaker 6: to slow the game down, Like Clemson doesn't even try
23:35
Speaker 6: to get steals in their press.
23:36
Speaker 5: They're just like.
23:37
Speaker 6: Making you use the shot clock, get far down into
23:40
Speaker 6: it and have to take a tough one with five
23:42
Speaker 6: or ten seconds on the clock.
23:44
Speaker 5: And if you extrapolate that over the course of a.
23:48
Speaker 6: Game where both teams are doing that to each other,
23:50
Speaker 6: I think the possession count comes in way under what's
23:52
Speaker 6: projected here in one hundred and thirty four and a
23:54
Speaker 6: half one hundred and thirty four.
23:55
Speaker 5: I've taken quite a bit of that as well.
23:58
Speaker 4: Do you have any picks, games, sides.
24:03
Speaker 1: Totals that you love for Friday, Because don't forget, we're
24:07
Speaker 1: doing this Tuesday. People get forty eight hours to sort
24:10
Speaker 1: of digest, so Friday's includers here.
24:12
Speaker 4: Nothing has happened yet.
24:14
Speaker 5: Yeah.
24:15
Speaker 6: I don't even think I was doing that intentionally, going
24:18
Speaker 6: with a bunch of Thursday games there. But the more
24:20
Speaker 6: I've investigated the Saint Mary's Vanderbilt game, I end up
24:23
Speaker 6: leaning more and more towards the Gales. I just think
24:26
Speaker 6: they are so good at making games their style, and
24:29
Speaker 6: this is a really big clash of styles. Vanderbilt wants
24:32
Speaker 6: to run, they want to press, they want to get
24:34
Speaker 6: up and down. And Saint Mary's like they see Gonzaga
24:37
Speaker 6: three times a year and they makeing Zaga play in
24:39
Speaker 6: the mud. They slog it up, and I think Randy
24:42
Speaker 6: Bennett can do that to Vanderbilt. Vandy played Drake early
24:46
Speaker 6: in the year, which is a somewhat comparable team where
24:48
Speaker 6: they want to play super duper slow, and although Vandy
24:52
Speaker 6: force twenty turnovers, Drake still won that game by ten
24:55
Speaker 6: because they dominated the glass. I think Saint Mary's can
24:57
Speaker 6: do that. So I laid some three and a half.
25:00
Speaker 6: I think it's more four in the market now, but
25:02
Speaker 6: I think that's an okay price as well Saint Mary's.
25:06
Speaker 6: And let's see one other Friday bet.
25:09
Speaker 5: How about Oklahoma.
25:11
Speaker 6: I think Yukon's maybe gotten a little overvalued in the
25:14
Speaker 6: market just because of how good they've been in the
25:16
Speaker 6: tournament the last two years, the name value of Danny Hurley.
25:19
Speaker 6: But these two teams are like coin flip and every
25:22
Speaker 6: analytical ranking. So you're gonna give me four and a
25:24
Speaker 6: half points, and I think Oklahoma's got pretty easy ways
25:27
Speaker 6: to score, getting downhill off the dribble. Yukon fouls a ton.
25:31
Speaker 6: Oklahoma gets to the free throw line. I think they're
25:34
Speaker 6: going to live the line, gets some easy points, and
25:36
Speaker 6: Oklahoma has not lost a game to a non conference opponent.
25:39
Speaker 6: They're like six and one on neutral floors against really
25:41
Speaker 6: good teams. Their only loss was to Kentucky by one
25:44
Speaker 6: in the SEC Tournament on the buzzer beater. I think
25:46
Speaker 6: they're at the very least in that game and could
25:49
Speaker 6: knock off Yukon.
25:53
Speaker 1: We still haven't gotten your third Final four. I do
25:57
Speaker 1: want to do that after this, Simon. Back in nineteen
26:03
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26:08
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26:12
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26:16
Speaker 1: eight years ago that McGuire got asked if he'd be
26:18
Speaker 1: wearing a luxury jacket on the sidelines for the tournament,
26:21
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26:24
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26:27
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26:30
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27:22
Speaker 5: Who's the first play you think of? Chowne here, Marquette?
27:25
Speaker 5: Is it d Wade? Jimmy Butler?
27:27
Speaker 4: It's definitely d Wade.
27:28
Speaker 1: But you know, I'm an old head, so like when
27:30
Speaker 1: I think about Marquette, I do think about al McGuire
27:33
Speaker 1: because my sort of seminal moments of college basketball were
27:39
Speaker 1: al McGuire and dick Enberg doing Saturday afternoon games on
27:43
Speaker 1: NBC and so you know, don't forget Al McGuire basically
27:47
Speaker 1: retired after that seventy seven championship and became the original
27:52
Speaker 1: Dick ev.
27:54
Speaker 4: He was amazing as a broadcaster.
27:56
Speaker 1: So I actually tend to think of Al McGuire when
28:01
Speaker 1: I think of Marquette University.
28:02
Speaker 5: I was so glad I am bias.
28:05
Speaker 2: I think the best era was that two thousands twenty
28:07
Speaker 2: ten era. So for me, Travis Deaner, man, that's that's
28:11
Speaker 2: my guy from Marquette, Like, I missed those days of
28:14
Speaker 2: having guys like him that are there forever huge personality scrappy.
28:19
Speaker 2: I definitely missed that era of Marquette.
28:22
Speaker 4: Jim So I'm Milwaukee guy, who do you think that
28:25
Speaker 4: from Marquette?
28:26
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's probably Wade.
28:27
Speaker 6: I remember where I was when he went for the
28:29
Speaker 6: triple double to beat Kentucky to go to the Final four,
28:32
Speaker 6: So that that.
28:33
Speaker 5: Has stuck with me.
28:34
Speaker 6: But Deaner's a great a great name pull too. I
28:36
Speaker 6: mean he was on that team and stuck around and
28:38
Speaker 6: they were just they won that the TBT, the basketball
28:41
Speaker 6: tournament that happens in this summer, and Deaner hit a
28:44
Speaker 6: buzzer beater or late game winner in that when he
28:47
Speaker 6: was still one of the old heads on the team,
28:49
Speaker 6: and it was great to see him back out there
28:51
Speaker 6: with a bunch of guys ten years younger and still contributing.
28:56
Speaker 1: I also would like to say that when d Wade
29:00
Speaker 1: had that run in the tournament, I was covering the
29:05
Speaker 1: tournament in San Antonio for ESPN and I went out.
29:11
Speaker 1: I finished my story, and like a lot of times
29:13
Speaker 1: when you're writing some of these things, you pre write
29:16
Speaker 1: the stories because the deadlines are so tight that you
29:20
Speaker 1: kind of got a tournament early and hope that they
29:23
Speaker 1: come close to what your narrative is. So I turned
29:27
Speaker 1: in my story and probably needed, like you know, if
29:30
Speaker 1: things went right, needed to change a couple hundred words.
29:33
Speaker 1: It wasn't about Marquette. It was about the games I
29:35
Speaker 1: was covering in San Antonio. I went out that night
29:40
Speaker 1: and got so drunk with a friend of the podcast
29:44
Speaker 1: Seth Wickersham and current ESPN College basketball or college football
29:50
Speaker 1: writer Pete Famil, who was not at ESPN at the time.
29:53
Speaker 1: I couldn't function the next day, Like I couldn't get
29:57
Speaker 1: out of bed.
29:58
Speaker 4: I was puke everywhere.
30:01
Speaker 1: I stood in the shower for like twenty five minutes
30:04
Speaker 1: hoping everything would clear up, and then I got a
30:06
Speaker 1: call from my editor. I needed to rewrite the whole
30:09
Speaker 1: freaking story and I could not. I could not even
30:13
Speaker 1: see straight. So whenever I think about d Wade in
30:16
Speaker 1: that final four run, I think about covering the NCAA
30:20
Speaker 1: tournament in San Antonio.
30:21
Speaker 5: How he ruined your life for a day, everything got ruined.
30:27
Speaker 5: That's a nightmare, fucking terrible.
30:32
Speaker 4: Sam, And I don't know if you wanted to ask
30:33
Speaker 4: a question. If not, I'll.
30:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got the one I can't believe and asked
30:37
Speaker 2: yet give me the underdogs?
30:38
Speaker 5: You like outright either Thursday, Friday, whatever?
30:41
Speaker 8: You got first one you see San Diego, And I
30:45
Speaker 8: know this isn't you know, a crazy one with the
30:47
Speaker 8: trendy and it's only plus two and a half, so
30:49
Speaker 8: we're not going nuts with an outright type dog here.
30:51
Speaker 6: But I just I love this team all season and
30:54
Speaker 6: I like the matchup. They mix in a bunch of
30:57
Speaker 6: z own which is going to keep the Michigan seven
30:59
Speaker 6: foot away from the rim a little bit. Maybe you
31:02
Speaker 6: get beat up on the offensive glass, but I think
31:04
Speaker 6: first shot defense will be pretty good there, and they're
31:06
Speaker 6: they're gonna force they could force twenty turnovers in this game.
31:09
Speaker 6: Michigan is really sloppy with the ball. The turnover rate
31:13
Speaker 6: defensively for u C. San Diego super high. They've got
31:15
Speaker 6: the guy Hayden Gray that leads the country and steal
31:17
Speaker 6: rate so easy buckets going the other way. And then
31:21
Speaker 6: Neewa Tate Jones their their conference player of the year
31:24
Speaker 6: point guard, kind of six to six jumbo point guard,
31:26
Speaker 6: New Zealander. He gets a lot of headlines and he should.
31:29
Speaker 6: He'll be a very fun guy to watch here. But
31:32
Speaker 6: they got a shooter named Tyler mcguy that is like
31:35
Speaker 6: almost goal Ky esque in his like total indiscriminate bombing
31:39
Speaker 6: like he will. His name's my guy, Yes, Tyler mcguy.
31:42
Speaker 6: I love it looks like McGee, but yeah, pronounced mc guy.
31:46
Speaker 4: He's now Tyler Simon's guy.
31:48
Speaker 5: Is my guy?
31:48
Speaker 6: Yes, yes, my guy, my guy. It's just a it's
31:51
Speaker 6: a fantastic nickname to go with. But yeah, he'll take
31:54
Speaker 6: twelve or fifteen threes if they let him really quick release.
31:58
Speaker 6: And if he hits six or seven, maybe he won't
32:01
Speaker 6: hit ten like Goalkie, but he hit six or seven
32:03
Speaker 6: against the reigning Big Ten Tournament champion. I think people
32:05
Speaker 6: are going to take a little bit of notice. So
32:07
Speaker 6: you see San Diego is won there for sure, and
32:11
Speaker 6: then right next to them in the bracket.
32:13
Speaker 5: I like Yale. There's some situational stuff that's brutal for.
32:18
Speaker 6: Them with having played Sunday and then they have to
32:20
Speaker 6: go and play at altitude on Thursday in Denver. I
32:23
Speaker 6: don't love that, But the matchup with Texas A and
32:27
Speaker 6: M doesn't scare me that much. You know, Texas A
32:29
Speaker 6: and M's huge strength, getting all over the offensive glass.
32:31
Speaker 6: They try to win the extras, win the possession battle,
32:34
Speaker 6: and Yale can compete there. It's a really good defensive
32:37
Speaker 6: rebounding team. They have not seen anyone quite like Texas
32:40
Speaker 6: A and M. But I think back to nine years
32:42
Speaker 6: ago when Yale beat Baylor in the first round. They
32:45
Speaker 6: still got the same coach. They were somewhat shorter in
32:48
Speaker 6: the front court, but they were physical and they kept
32:50
Speaker 6: an awesome offensive rebounding team in Baylor at Bay. I mean,
32:54
Speaker 6: they didn't, you know, shut him down in that area,
32:55
Speaker 6: but they were able to handle them and then they
32:57
Speaker 6: won out right.
32:58
Speaker 5: I think they can do the same thing too to
33:00
Speaker 5: Texas A and M.
33:01
Speaker 6: Here Texas A and M's guards will take a bunch
33:03
Speaker 6: of bad shots, they'll chuck, and Yale takes better shots
33:07
Speaker 6: and has better shooters, so I'll ride with Yale.
33:09
Speaker 1: There got a local West Hartford kid on the Yale
33:12
Speaker 1: basketball team this year. Jim, I kind of feel like
33:18
Speaker 1: you just mentioned Michigan and U see San Diego. I
33:21
Speaker 1: feel like Michigan got fucked, Like how are they a
33:25
Speaker 1: five seed the way they ran through the tournament? And
33:28
Speaker 1: not only a five seed, but they're the last team
33:30
Speaker 1: playing on Sunday and now they've got to travel cross
33:33
Speaker 1: country play a late Thursday game. Even if you think
33:38
Speaker 1: they're prime for an upset, because they've got some weaknesses,
33:41
Speaker 1: they're not a perfect team being a five seed. When
33:44
Speaker 1: you beat Wisconsin twice and Wisconsin's a three seed, do
33:49
Speaker 1: you feel like that was a fair seeding by the
33:52
Speaker 1: selection committee?
33:54
Speaker 5: Not really.
33:55
Speaker 6: The one part of it is just like you go
33:57
Speaker 6: in knowing they don't care about the Big Ten tournament game.
34:00
Speaker 6: It's like their pencils down feed up having a cocktail
34:03
Speaker 6: for completing the bracket already, and that's unfortunate. It sucks
34:07
Speaker 6: for Michigan because they clearly earned a higher spot by
34:11
Speaker 6: winning that game.
34:12
Speaker 5: But it's unfortunately what happened.
34:14
Speaker 6: And really I thought the committee did a bad job
34:16
Speaker 6: with this entire Denver site. Like you've got a ton
34:18
Speaker 6: of teams that played on Sunday that have to go
34:20
Speaker 6: to altitude, and like VCU played Sunday, they have to
34:23
Speaker 6: go to play BYU, who's an altitude comfortable team. Wisconsin
34:27
Speaker 6: played Sunday, has to go play Montana, who plays in
34:29
Speaker 6: an altitude conference on short rest, Like they really gave
34:32
Speaker 6: some teams some tough draws. And part of that is
34:35
Speaker 6: it's dumb at this point to have two Western sites
34:38
Speaker 6: when none of the Western teams are good, so you
34:41
Speaker 6: get end up shipping a bunch of Eastern teams out
34:44
Speaker 6: there in the first round. But I thought they did
34:46
Speaker 6: an especially bad job just kind of fumbling the bag
34:50
Speaker 6: with where they put those teams.
34:52
Speaker 1: They did an especially bad job with the tournament overall.
34:54
Speaker 1: Like it's been a controversy since the second you know,
34:57
Speaker 1: North Carolina got in, but a lot of seating, a
35:00
Speaker 1: lot of the games, a lot of the potential matchups.
35:02
Speaker 1: It's kind of awful. I feel disgusted by all of it.
35:08
Speaker 1: We're gonna have Evan on in a minute and He's
35:10
Speaker 1: got a great stat. Last year, teams that received more
35:15
Speaker 1: than half the spread bets went sixty eight percent against
35:20
Speaker 1: the spread. That's an ROI of over thirty percent. The
35:25
Speaker 1: previous eighteen tournaments, teams that are with that public had
35:28
Speaker 1: gone under the public teams had gone under forty eight
35:32
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. Have recent changes to college basketball
35:41
Speaker 1: made chalk success more inevitable? We talk like this is
35:44
Speaker 1: a very top heavy tournament, Like do you see the
35:47
Speaker 1: market catching up this year or is it going to
35:50
Speaker 1: continue to be the way it was last year.
35:53
Speaker 6: I would hope and expect the market catches up a
35:56
Speaker 6: little bit and makes some of the underdogs a little
35:59
Speaker 6: more viable.
36:00
Speaker 5: But there's a chance.
36:01
Speaker 6: And with the you know I mentioned earlier the strength
36:04
Speaker 6: of the top twenty five or so teams, that part
36:07
Speaker 6: of that is the shifting of the sport with the portal,
36:09
Speaker 6: and you know, the best man major players can immediately
36:13
Speaker 6: go beyond a better team and get a bag. And
36:16
Speaker 6: of course there are guys that transfer down and there
36:19
Speaker 6: are stars in that area as well. At Colorado State's
36:22
Speaker 6: best players from Colorado, like he transferred down there and
36:25
Speaker 6: he's an All American caliber guy. But those are going
36:28
Speaker 6: to be fewer and far between compared to the internal
36:31
Speaker 6: development that mid majors often we're able to do. So
36:35
Speaker 6: I worry that maybe there will be fewer upsets going forward.
36:40
Speaker 6: It does help this year that we got a lot
36:42
Speaker 6: of the best teams won their mid major conference tournaments.
36:44
Speaker 6: That gives me hope for the strength of the twelves
36:47
Speaker 6: and thirteens and fourteen seeds. But man, yeah, it does
36:50
Speaker 6: feel like there is starting to be a shift a
36:52
Speaker 6: little more clo closer and closer where.
36:54
Speaker 5: The talent is is on those top teams.
36:57
Speaker 6: Maybe maybe this is being the last year of the
36:59
Speaker 6: COVID year will help where the you know, all those
37:02
Speaker 6: fifth year veterans going up to a power conference team
37:05
Speaker 6: won't be there anymore.
37:06
Speaker 5: But that could still be the case this year.
37:09
Speaker 6: With that that's sixty eight percent stat I hope that's
37:11
Speaker 6: not the case. Come on, don't let the public feast
37:12
Speaker 6: that much.
37:14
Speaker 1: Well, look related to that, who are the money line
37:16
Speaker 1: favorites that you can't see losing the first two days early?
37:20
Speaker 6: Like I don't think Akron has a chance against Arizona.
37:24
Speaker 6: Like the style is a problem. They want to run,
37:27
Speaker 6: they want to get up and down and Arizona is like, good,
37:29
Speaker 6: let's do this. That sounds great to us. They played
37:32
Speaker 6: Sanford early in the year. That's also a team that
37:34
Speaker 6: wants to run. They won by thirty. That's not an
37:36
Speaker 6: exact matchup, exact similar comparison, but I think that's that's
37:41
Speaker 6: part of it. And in Michigan State Bryant, I know
37:43
Speaker 6: it's like fifteen points, but that one would stun me.
37:46
Speaker 6: And Brian's entire like identity is being bigger and more
37:50
Speaker 6: athletic than their mid major brethren. They got a bunch
37:53
Speaker 6: of down transfers, and then you go against a huge,
37:55
Speaker 6: physical Michigan State team that can just like match and
37:59
Speaker 6: exceed everything Bryant brings to the table that worries me.
38:03
Speaker 6: Matt Cox said it best on our podcast. He's like
38:05
Speaker 6: to pull out some of these upsets. I think you
38:06
Speaker 6: got to be different. You can't be better at what
38:09
Speaker 6: the team does across from you. And both of those
38:11
Speaker 6: are matchups where they're like a similar style, not quite
38:15
Speaker 6: a clone, but of the favorite and the favorites just
38:17
Speaker 6: better at their game.
38:19
Speaker 5: If you're in a survivor pool, who are you going
38:20
Speaker 5: with first?
38:22
Speaker 6: Arizona's probably one think they might struggle against Oregon in
38:25
Speaker 6: that next round. Oregon's just a tricky tournament team and
38:27
Speaker 6: then boom, you run into Duke, so you're not going
38:29
Speaker 6: to need to hang on to Arizona for a while.
38:32
Speaker 6: Oregon could be one again with Duke lurking right there. Kentucky,
38:36
Speaker 6: I think would be a good one. Troy could be
38:38
Speaker 6: a somewhat tough matchup because they're athletic, but Kentucky got
38:42
Speaker 6: Lamont Butler in there, and their draw is kind of tricky.
38:45
Speaker 6: I think the second round matchup, whether it's Illinois, Texas
38:48
Speaker 6: or Xavier, is tricky, So Kentucky's probably a good one
38:51
Speaker 6: to go with early. I think they can lose to
38:53
Speaker 6: anyone except Troy and just get him to the first
38:55
Speaker 6: round and then you can throw them out of your
38:56
Speaker 6: survivor pool.
38:57
Speaker 1: All right, Secon, We're we're gonna get to Gym's final
39:00
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40:16
Speaker 4: It's all right.
40:16
Speaker 1: We've talked about Auburn, We've talked about Duke, We've talked
40:20
Speaker 1: about Houston. That is seventy five percent of your final four. Jim,
40:24
Speaker 1: we can't keep the people hanging any longer finish it off.
40:30
Speaker 6: Yeah, I said this was the West was my favorite, two,
40:33
Speaker 6: Saint John's my favorite, three, Texas Tech my favorite.
40:35
Speaker 5: Four Maryland. I'm going with Texas Tech.
40:38
Speaker 6: And maybe there's some stubbornness for me here because I
40:40
Speaker 6: picked them to the final four in the preseason when
40:43
Speaker 6: they were like barely a top twenty five team, and
40:45
Speaker 6: now they're sitting here seventh and ken pound. I'm like,
40:47
Speaker 6: why would I turn my back on myself on past
40:50
Speaker 6: jim at this point considering how good they've been.
40:53
Speaker 5: The concern is the.
40:54
Speaker 6: Injury stuff, the nagging injuries for Darien Williams, Chance McMillan,
40:57
Speaker 6: two guys that sat up in the Big twelve tournament.
41:00
Speaker 6: I think they're going to be close enough to full
41:01
Speaker 6: strength this first weekend and hopefully by the second weekend
41:04
Speaker 6: when they would play a Saint John's or potentially a Florida.
41:08
Speaker 6: I think they'll be closer to one hundred percent by then.
41:11
Speaker 6: And I just like the coach here, kranp mcchasm's one
41:14
Speaker 6: everywhere he's been. I like the versatility the lineup. They
41:17
Speaker 6: can play big, they can play small, they can foll
41:19
Speaker 6: out the court with shooting, they can put a defense
41:21
Speaker 6: first lineup out there. I think they've got a lot
41:24
Speaker 6: of different ways to win. And when you're playing Florida
41:28
Speaker 6: and Saint John's back to back, two very different teams,
41:30
Speaker 6: I think you've got to be that kind of a chameleon.
41:32
Speaker 6: And I believe Texas Tech can get it done and
41:35
Speaker 6: be the one non one seed in my final four.
41:38
Speaker 1: Don't turn your back on past, Jim. That would be
41:40
Speaker 1: like turning your back on your roots.
41:44
Speaker 5: Oh there he is there. You get it, Yeah, you
41:47
Speaker 5: get it?
41:48
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Oh God, even Simon laughs.
41:51
Speaker 1: Simon a lot of times when I, you know, indulge
41:54
Speaker 1: myself with these terrible, bad jokes, I'm I'm looking at
42:00
Speaker 1: the script and so I don't see everyone's faces. But
42:05
Speaker 1: this time I wanted to see everyone's faces when I
42:07
Speaker 1: said it. Because Simon oftentimes does not laugh. He just
42:10
Speaker 1: sort of crinkles his eyes a little bit, and so
42:13
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's responding.
42:15
Speaker 4: This time he chuckled a little bit.
42:16
Speaker 5: And that got to be good. Brother. I'm tough. God,
42:19
Speaker 5: be actually good for me to laugh.
42:20
Speaker 2: I can't fake it anymore with you.
42:24
Speaker 5: Six seven years in.
42:26
Speaker 1: Wow, you know I was gonna say something but weave
42:30
Speaker 1: it at that. All right, let's bring in director of Research,
42:34
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. He's gonna give us the last word with
42:38
Speaker 1: some betting trends to know this weekend.
42:42
Speaker 4: Evan, so glad to have you back.
42:44
Speaker 7: Well, what's up, guys, it's up, Jim. I got a
42:47
Speaker 7: bunch of stuff here. Yeah, I got a bunch of
42:49
Speaker 7: stuff here. So I'm gonna roll through it. Stop me
42:51
Speaker 7: down when you want me to. But just a bunch
42:53
Speaker 7: of different information. We're gonna start with free throws. A
42:57
Speaker 7: video just went out on Action Network kind of about
42:59
Speaker 7: the same concepts, so check it out there for more info.
43:02
Speaker 7: But basically, teams who hit at least seventy five percent
43:04
Speaker 7: from the free throw line cash at a fifty five
43:07
Speaker 7: percent rate, ats about six percent return on investment.
43:11
Speaker 3: Basically, you rise raise that.
43:13
Speaker 7: Free throw percentage for a team to seventy six percent,
43:16
Speaker 7: the ROI goes up to thirteen percent, and it's seventy
43:19
Speaker 7: seven percent. It's actually over twenty percent eighty seven fifty
43:22
Speaker 7: two to two ATS, and the NCAA tournament is two
43:25
Speaker 7: thousand and six. Hitch your free throw as you tend
43:27
Speaker 7: to cover the two teams. I think you probably want
43:30
Speaker 7: to highlight Wisconsin. They lead the nation almost eighty three percent.
43:33
Speaker 7: That's actually the second best free throw percentage almost ever
43:37
Speaker 7: for a tournament team. Villanova twenty twenty two made it
43:40
Speaker 7: to the final four. And I think the other one
43:42
Speaker 7: worth noting is Gonzaga at about eighty percent, second best
43:45
Speaker 7: free throw rate for an eight seed or higher, behind
43:47
Speaker 7: only twenty twenty one or Robert two as a fifteen
43:51
Speaker 7: seed actually upset the two in the seven so pretty
43:53
Speaker 7: decent category there. The other teams to potentially look for
43:57
Speaker 7: Lipscomb good from free throw Arizona, Michigan State, and Colorado State.
44:02
Speaker 7: So just an interesting trend to kind of talk about
44:05
Speaker 7: and kind of works year to year as well, So
44:07
Speaker 7: let me keep rolling here. Every year people kind of
44:12
Speaker 7: talk about betting blindly on these underdogs, kind of having
44:15
Speaker 7: a little fun. Well, it's actually worked lately, so round
44:17
Speaker 7: to sixty four blindly betting eleven seeds or higher on
44:21
Speaker 7: the money line has turned a profit each of the
44:23
Speaker 7: last four tournaments, and since twenty twelve, one hundred dollars
44:27
Speaker 7: better almost three hundred games would be up about seventeen
44:30
Speaker 7: percent return on investment, almost forty eight hundred bucks profiting
44:34
Speaker 7: in eight of the twelve years. So some people out
44:37
Speaker 7: there like to put ten bucks, twenty bucks, whatever it
44:40
Speaker 7: is on all of these underdogs en route.
44:41
Speaker 3: It's actually worked lately, which is fun. And this one
44:44
Speaker 3: is well.
44:45
Speaker 1: Us that you just told us that last year was
44:47
Speaker 1: such a chocky no, but.
44:52
Speaker 7: Just completely betting money lines because a lot of these
44:55
Speaker 7: big upsets tend to probably cover most of the other
44:58
Speaker 7: teams see your rout and like a ten to one,
45:01
Speaker 7: a twelve to one, which has actually hit lately, you know,
45:04
Speaker 7: especially when these six teams are beating one. So to me,
45:07
Speaker 7: that's probably what's done at the last few years, but
45:09
Speaker 7: nonetheless pretty crazy. And this one, this one's directly for you, Chad,
45:14
Speaker 7: since we talked about that for NFL. In terms of
45:16
Speaker 7: betting like the favorites and during the season, well, dating
45:19
Speaker 7: back to nineteen ninety, we've only seen two teams win
45:22
Speaker 7: the title having odds at twenty five to one are
45:24
Speaker 7: higher entering the tournament. They were both Connecticut in twenty
45:27
Speaker 7: eleven twenty five to one and twenty fourteen at one
45:30
Speaker 7: hundred to one. So since Yukon in twenty fourteen, every
45:34
Speaker 7: champion has had has been under twenty to one during
45:37
Speaker 7: the tournament.
45:38
Speaker 3: So right now, that.
45:39
Speaker 7: Would only be six teams Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston, Alabama,
45:44
Speaker 7: and Tennessee. So obviously could get bucked, but those are
45:48
Speaker 7: the six teams right now that would work over the
45:50
Speaker 7: last decade of tournaments.
45:51
Speaker 3: So we will see.
45:53
Speaker 1: I thought when you said, I thought, when you said
45:55
Speaker 1: this is just for me, you were gonna resance like
45:59
Speaker 1: the nineteen seventy nine De Paul Blue Demons. We're number
46:04
Speaker 1: one in the country heading into the tournament, and yet
46:07
Speaker 1: they lost to who in March madness. That's that's what
46:12
Speaker 1: I thought you were going to say.
46:15
Speaker 7: Unfortunately wasn't an al Maguire stat, but we'll have to
46:17
Speaker 7: move on from there. This one is actually I actually
46:21
Speaker 7: looked up while you guys are talking about Saint John's
46:23
Speaker 7: and I had seen it in a few different places.
46:25
Speaker 7: But so we have thirty six final fourteen since twenty fifteen.
46:29
Speaker 7: Thirty four of those thirty six had an effective field
46:32
Speaker 7: goal percentage of fifty.
46:33
Speaker 3: Percent or higher.
46:34
Speaker 7: All thirty six shot at least thirty two point seven
46:37
Speaker 7: percent from three and thirty three of thirty six shot
46:41
Speaker 7: just around seventy percent or higher. From the free throw line.
46:44
Speaker 7: Saint John's doesn't cover any of those three, so a
46:47
Speaker 7: lot of their metrics seem to say that they have
46:50
Speaker 7: to get there differently, like they drive a lot, they
46:53
Speaker 7: don't shoot the three extremely well. So that's just one
46:56
Speaker 7: thing to be that I'm interested in. And the other one,
46:58
Speaker 7: this is a Ken Palm stat that's everywhere, but in
47:01
Speaker 7: the sixty fourteen era, there have been thirty nine teams
47:03
Speaker 7: to enter the tournament as a one or two seed
47:06
Speaker 7: that weren't ranked in the preseason eight peopole. They have
47:09
Speaker 7: zero final fours, that is Saint John's and Michigan State
47:12
Speaker 7: this year, So those are two teams to potentially worry about.
47:15
Speaker 7: And then I got two more for you. This one
47:18
Speaker 7: I thought was kind of fascinating with Florida. So Florida
47:21
Speaker 7: actually entered the regular season at sixty to one odds
47:24
Speaker 7: to win it all and is now obviously a one seed.
47:27
Speaker 7: So we have data since two thousand and nine on
47:29
Speaker 7: preseason odds, we've had twelve teams listed at thirty to
47:32
Speaker 7: one or higher in the preseason and ended up with
47:35
Speaker 7: a one seed. Only one made the final four, Gonzaga
47:38
Speaker 7: in twenty seventeen and none have won it all. Now,
47:42
Speaker 7: I asked myself this question, so aregurgitated to you guys?
47:45
Speaker 7: How good were those twelve teams?
47:46
Speaker 3: Right? Like in terms of rankings and during the.
47:48
Speaker 7: Dance, well, all were AP top five and all were
47:53
Speaker 7: top nine in RPI, so pretty decent teams. Now that's Florida,
47:57
Speaker 7: So I know Jim was talking about them potentially not
48:00
Speaker 7: making it there. I think a lot of the talking
48:03
Speaker 7: heads like Florida, but their path is tough. And then
48:06
Speaker 7: I leave you with one, just fun one.
48:08
Speaker 3: We tend to.
48:09
Speaker 7: See unders with high totals early in March Madness in
48:12
Speaker 7: Round of sixty four earlier games with the total of
48:15
Speaker 7: one hundred and forty or more, which is this year,
48:17
Speaker 7: almost every single game, it looks like there's sixty percent
48:21
Speaker 7: to the under for a fourteen percent ROI since twenty
48:24
Speaker 7: twelve finishing above five hundred for the under in six
48:27
Speaker 7: straight tournaments. So unders tend to come in early in
48:31
Speaker 7: these games, and this year got a lot of high totals,
48:34
Speaker 7: so it should be a good one.
48:35
Speaker 5: That spooks me. I think I'm on too many overs
48:37
Speaker 5: based on that one. I might have to do some think.
48:42
Speaker 3: The crazy thing about those totals though. One more thing.
48:45
Speaker 7: It's the highest and I look this up every game
48:47
Speaker 7: around of sixty four the highest we've seen in thirty years.
48:50
Speaker 7: I've got totals since ninety five. We've never seen this
48:53
Speaker 7: average high totals. We have like ten or twelve games
48:56
Speaker 7: at one hundred and fifty plus, so some wild.
48:58
Speaker 5: Games out there.
48:59
Speaker 6: This was the most efficient season in college basketball history
49:01
Speaker 6: in terms of scoring, so that probably you know rising
49:04
Speaker 6: tide lists all boat sort of thing. Last year I
49:06
Speaker 6: think was the most efficient, and then this year blew
49:09
Speaker 6: it away by another like point per possession. It's it's
49:11
Speaker 6: been nuts.
49:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, Gym's out here given overs for his best bets.
49:18
Speaker 5: I'm fighting a sixty percent trend. What am I doing?
49:21
Speaker 4: It's a right at least in bullshit.
49:23
Speaker 1: Anyways, we can't wait to have you with us in
49:29
Speaker 1: Chicago for the Massive Favorites Live event.
49:33
Speaker 4: You and the entire three man.
49:35
Speaker 1: Weave crew, who are really like the original impresarios when
49:41
Speaker 1: it comes to using analytics to bet on college basketball.
49:45
Speaker 1: I know you guys do this well in a variety
49:47
Speaker 1: of ways, so we're stoked to have you in Chicago.
49:50
Speaker 1: I'll make as many to Paul Bluema Demon references as
49:54
Speaker 1: I possibly can at the live event, so we can
49:57
Speaker 1: live back the glory years went to Paul in Mark Cat.
50:00
Speaker 1: We're going back and forth, good Catholic schools dominating college basketball.
50:06
Speaker 4: I remember those days, Jim. I know you're an old guy.
50:08
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, My dad got his master's degree from De Paul,
50:11
Speaker 6: so you know he's got some Blue Demon history as well.
50:14
Speaker 6: So you know, we go all the way back. I
50:16
Speaker 6: will say too, I've had some good times at Joe's
50:17
Speaker 6: on Weed. Great great setup, like to watch games. Uh,
50:21
Speaker 6: and I'm pumped to go back there and have the
50:23
Speaker 6: mic in my hand this time instead of be the
50:25
Speaker 6: one watching whatever performance is happening.
50:27
Speaker 1: I'll bet you've had some good time at Joe's on Weed. Okay, Simon, Simon,
50:35
Speaker 1: you got them and get Simon.
50:36
Speaker 4: You're on a heater, Simon, come on, come on. Dramatic pause,
50:41
Speaker 4: dramatic pass right there, all right.
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