Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Warning: Banks Are BUYING THESE Stocks NOW! + Stock Market News 15 October 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Warning: Banks Are BUYING THESE Stocks NOW! + Stock Market News 15 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here.
• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't you like to know what Wall Street is buying right now?
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Well, guess what?
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: They sent that information out to their favorite clients and I happen to get my pause on the particular note from Goldman Sachs this time.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: So we're going to look at what their buys are, what they're favoring going into earnings seasons, but before we do that, there are some really important setups we need to understand.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: My intention is always to make you the best informed investor out there, so you can make better decisions, make more money and be just generally happier and pull on the ears of the nearest golden retriever.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: You see beginner bootcamp.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we trade and how we're literally up 94% so far this year, go to phoenixfriendsorg slash bootcamp and I'll teach you my three-step trading system completely free of charge.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Now, this is a chart.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: You might see quite a lot.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Cnn puts this out and it says we're at the moment in extreme greed and some people might say that's a bad thing and that we must therefore come down and greed is bad and all that sort of thing.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Well, on Wall Street, greed is good and greed can continue for quite a long period of time, excuse me.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: So if you look at positioning right now.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: So that's a big thing that a lot of the market looks at.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: It's like how heavily are we positioned?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: We are there right now, which is sort of the top here of that blue little spiky bit, and then in orange we've got the S&P 500.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Let me see if I can find an orange pen.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Yes, there we go, the S&P 500, s and P.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: And when we have these breakouts?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Well, the last time we had that breakout let me zoom in a bit for you here was here in July this year, and guess what?
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: The S&P took a real nosedive, right, it went from all the way up there to all the way down here.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Now, a bit of an unfair comparison, I'd say.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Well, the Japanese sort of bungled their currency nonsense and sort of unwound a huge trade and everything else.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: So I don't really see that necessarily happening Now.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: There is an election coming up and we need to talk about that in just a moment, but the cause of that dip was Japan.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So that's important.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: And if you look at charts like that, it makes you think well, this is what most stock charts look like, right, if you hadn't noticed this, most charts go nowhere up, nowhere down, and then we give up around about down here and we've basically taken all of our hard-earned money and we found a little Wall Street banker in his midtown uniform, little vest and all and we just said please take my money.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: That's essentially what we do, right, and it's avoidable, completely avoidable, if you just know the rules.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: And the first rule to learn would be how do you spot the breakout?
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: How do you get in here, right, so that you take up all of this beautiful rally, and then we have to talk about how you get out.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn how you get in, very, very, very important, I've recorded a 30-minute masterclass for you, completely free of charge, at felixfrenzelogcom.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So write down that URL, felixfrenzelogcom, and after you've finished watching this entire video because it'd be a shame to miss a second of this, wouldn't it you go and type that into your browser and you watch that, because you'll be a lot smarter.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: And it's basically what I learned as a banker and then for the next 10 years as a trader.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: So very, very, very simple four patterns you need to understand.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Anybody can learn them.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Complete beginners can learn them.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: But let's go back to the.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Greed is good thing, greed really is good, and rallies can go on for really long periods of time.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: So the bull markets can last for very long periods of time and, as you can see here, we've had some that have lasted much, much longer than the one we're in right now and therefore I'm not calling the end of this in any way, shape or form.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I actually think we could just get started.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Now there'll be some blips, we need to understand those, but I think we're just getting started.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Why are we just getting started?
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Well, stocks are not actually that expensive, and I know I like to pummel you with charts here, because that's really how you make money is by understanding the numbers.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: If you look at the forward PE of the S&P, which is this red line here if Microsoft will grant me a red pen, that one there that is the S&P 500 and it's the forward P-E ratio what does that mean?
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: It's current share price divided by next year's profits.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Why next year's?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Because the market's actually forward-looking.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: And if you look at where we are with that and I may draw a straight line we're not at crazy levels in 2020.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: We were at similar levels and I think earnings will actually grow faster.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Well, the letters A and I come to mind because they will make companies more efficient.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: They'll be able to do more with less people.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: They'll be able to get their people to put out more, which is another way of looking at that.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So valuations are a little lower right now than pre-COVID, so it's not crazy.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: It's not cheap either, but it's not sort of like jump off a cliff right now type stuff.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: And if you look at seasonality, this is the NASDAQ.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: We are still here, basically, typically.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: After that you get this beautiful rally.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: In fact it's a 6% rally.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm using a red pen, but it's a 6% rally that we usually get going into the year end and there are various reasons for the seasonality of the market, but typically we see that November December rally.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So you're going to ask yourself do I want to miss out on it or are you prepared for it to happen?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: And one reason I am very bullish stocks going into 2025 is that there are about a trillion dollars in buyback authorizations and that means next year a trillion dollars of stocks will get sacked out of the system and it means every other stock left over is even a little bit more special and therefore worth a little bit more.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: So companies themselves are going to buy so much of their own stocks that it's going to be fantastic.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Now you're going to, of course, ask well, which stocks, felix?
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Which stocks?
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Let me tell you, and then we'll go to the actual stocks that Wall Street's liking right now.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Well, I can't tell you by individual stock.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: You'd have to go through a huge amount of fighting but who is buying the most?
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: As I spell correctly there?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: What does this say to you?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So these are the announced buybacks of the last three months and what we're actually looking at and I'm going to need a green pen for this Microsoft, may I?
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Yes, despite me slagging them off.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: This is the number, the dot that matters, and you want to basically take a screenshot of this, if you like.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Look at the left scale here.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: That is as a percentage of market cap.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: So as a percentage of market cap.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: So as a percentage of how big that market cap is.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: So you can see that financial stocks and infotech stocks, which are tech stocks, which is up here, are buying back crazy amounts of their own stock sort of 0.8%.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: That's just the last three months announcements.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: There'll be more announcements.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: So therefore, being an infotech and financials is probably relatively smart place to be right Most buybacks, most support.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Now, of course, that's quite useful information.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: I would have thought, yeah, now, in addition to that, I would then look at the actual charts and I would find some good ones, which is exactly what we do.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: So, for example, this is a Tesla chart, right Again, what do most people do?
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: They buy at the top, they drop out at the bottom.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: If you'd bought here which is where the breakout was, where we called the breakout, that's where one should have bought and then one should have sold up here, there, and that would have meant going from $211 all the way up to $245 and then taking that $34 profit, which is a 20% gain in a couple of days, and then sitting it out and then waiting for the next one to break out, and then sitting it out and then waiting for the next one to break out.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: And if you do that consistently and you spot those, I think there is a very good chance you'll do better than the market.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: And I know everyone says, oh, you can't beat the market, but you can, lots of people do.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: It's just we've been taught by the mutual fund crowd that you shouldn't even try because they like to collect their fees, and now they've sort of morphed into the ETF crowd, but it's still the same thing.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So come and learn that.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: It's free, it won't bite you.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Just go to phoenixfriendsorg, get free, learn how to spot breakouts and you'll be smarter for it.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Share it with friends, teach other people.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: That's really what the whole thing's all about.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: And then I've got here Goldman Sachs' US Axis, ustmt, which is tech, and what is it?
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Tmt?
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Telecoms and tech, basically Techs.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: And they have put out their little nugget on what's coming up in earnings Now.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: First, they're saying the Nasdaq has struggled over the last three months.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Drivers of the sentiment recovery appear to be a cleaner position after three months of flat action.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Because, you see, actually as an investor, you should like it.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: If something hasn't done anything for three months, it could be an opportunity.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Improved sentiment on AI we think it's real.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And NVIDIA up seven out of the last eight sessions and that sort of thing.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: But what stocks?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: I hear you saying you promised me stocks.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Give me the stocks, otherwise I'll vote down the bloody video.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: If you haven't smashed the like button yet, then you can't.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Well, I shan't talk to you if you haven't.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: So what are they liking?
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Well, their most loved names.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I mean loved, as in you know, want to marry TSM, meta, avgo, now NVIDIA, cohr, data center, play Spot, aned, all data center plays Dash.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Now the ones that they are dubious about, and I shall mark them in orange Microsoft and the whole software thing, things like Team and Palantir they're not quite sure Can they really pull it out of the hat.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Same applies to AMD, pinterest, square, adobe, tesla, marvel and so on.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: I think there's some potential in those, but I'm just telling you what the guys on Wall Street are loving and what they love I mean really like, don't want to touch it with a barge pole Intel, etsy, mchp you probably care less about these Disney to work to handle GFS and so on.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So there you have it.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: These are the favorites of what the big investors are buying through Goldman Sachs' brokerage desks, and it tells you quite a lot about sentiment that you wouldn't otherwise know about.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So now you know that, what are you going to do with the information?
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: You're just going to go off and make yourself a cup of coffee and forget about the whole thing.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: The information You're just going to go off and make yourself a cup of coffee and forget about the whole thing.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Well, you could do all.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: You could join me in about 12 hours live for a beginner boot camp and let me teach you the three steps that we use that have allowed us to be literally up 94% so far this year.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: And I'm not promising those returns, I'll be silly, but I promise to share with you how I do it and I promise to share with you to set up a real trade together and really show you how the whole shebang works, because it's simpler than you think, it's rule-based and it might just lead you to the nirvana of financial freedom.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: It certainly has done the same for me.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: So that's my mission is to make a million people financially free.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: And why?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Because it would be incredibly satisfying.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: How did I start off with the madness?
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Well, I was a bit lonely, trading, to be honest with you, covid, not a lot going on other than trading.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: I thought it would be nice to talk to some people.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: So now we've got about 12,000 students, we've got an academy, we've got three market makers, a bunch of old investment bankers, and it's a tremendously fun community and the most rewarding thing I've ever done.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So I want to thank you.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: If you're already part of it, if you're thinking about it, dip your toes into it.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Join me on the boot camp today.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge, of course, and I love you for watching.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: I wish you a glorious day, thursday.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: This week will be interesting Netflix earnings That'll give us a bit of a feel.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Interestingly, that doesn't make the list here of what investors are really thinking about, and we're going to keep spotting some great trades and keep making money.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Oh wait, I wanted to get something else in there.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Before we run off, I wanted to run through a couple of our favorite stocks and have a look at how they're doing.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Let's do exactly that.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Let's look at NVDA here.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Pull my keyboard a little closer.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at Trade Vision here, of course, which is broken out.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: See our little buy signal here.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: This is in tradevisionio.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: I put the link down below as well At 1.32, we called it a buyout, and look what we've done.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Look at the marvel of our little indicator.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: We didn't just break through these resistance levels, but also through that one and also through that one, and that's, of course, wonderful.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: So parties on NVIDIA LAN.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: From my perspective, what else have we got?
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Paypal, hang on PayPal.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Well, paypal has just gone nowhere for a really long time, and that's one of the reasons I like it.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: That's one of the reasons I'm interested in it, because stocks that go nowhere, the backholders drop out right and we called it a buy here at $65.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Now we're trading at 80, which is pretty sweet Bit of consolidation here around that 80 zone.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: That's okay.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: I think we can live with that.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Still a very nice bullish story.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: What would I do if you wanted to make short-term gains on this?
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Something like that would be your trend.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: So one low, second low, previous lows dip below that line.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: You might want to take half a position off or even close the full position Again.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: You can automate that right.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Just put a stop loss there.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: And again, if you want to learn those things, you know what to do right.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that's quite a good thing to do is just to make sure these things are taken care of and to lock in profits.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Palantir also glorious rally here.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: We called the last buy signal here at 26, which is pretty good.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Before that we were in at 2290 and then got out 26 and then got back in at 26 and now we're at 43, which just fantastic and it's a brilliant, beautiful, bouncy, shiny rally.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: There she is.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: So same principle try to connect the three lows here.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Not perfect in that case, but it still gives you a bit of a feel of the direction.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: So you drop below that momentum, maybe close some of it.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Take some profits.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Why are you doing this?
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: To make money, right, so taking profits is the thing you should be doing.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Most of the time, people tend to hold on and then lose it and then it drops to 25 and then they exit.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying Palantir will do that, but that's what happens to most people.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I want to teach you to avoid that.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: What about some of our other favorite tech stocks?
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Sofi is doing quite nicely Now.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Interestingly, we haven't called a buy signal here yet.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: It sort of makes sense if you're a bit more cautious.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: Because you've got these highs here to take out, basically and that one I'm in on it.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm a little bit more gung-ho here.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: I think most of the buy and hold crowd is out, shaken out, because the people who bought in early 2022, they were buying at $15, $14, $13.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: They're probably mostly gone by now, which will allow us to have this beautiful rally and allow us to continue to be, rather than the buy and hold crowd be down 55%, actually be up 40%.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: So I'm very much enjoying this rally going straight up at $10.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: It was important to close above $10, which it did, which is fantastic.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: So that's shaken out the $9 resistance $10, we might be chewing around that level for a bit.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: I think that's entirely possible.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Also coincides here with these sort of $10.30 highs and so on, and this one here was at $9.70, so same sort of zone, 30 highs and so on.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: And this one here was at 970, so same sort of zone.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: So it might take a little bit of a breather, but what a rally that is and I think that's going to go a lot higher.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: What are the buys that we called yesterday?
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Financials, jp Morgan.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I know not many people are excited about JP Morgan, but we've made some nice money with a good old JPM this year.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: We've beaten buy and hold by about 4%, which is not too bad.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Team interesting one, one of the ones Wall Street isn't quite sure about.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Quite a nice chart right.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: It hasn't really gone anywhere for a long period of time and that could be a nice opportunity.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Financials have just generally done well.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: What else we got on here?
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Airlines, the S&P communications sector has done quite nicely.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: You can see a lot of buy signals here.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to run through all of them.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Just go to TradeVisionio and play with it for a week.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: It's a zero-risk endeavor.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: So what did we exit here?
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I guess a lot of Chinese stocks.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: The casinos got hit by Macau.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: That's really what that's got to do with.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: But overall I think we're looking pretty good.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: I think there's still a possibility of a slight pre-election hiccup, but other than that we're looking pretty sweet.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: And there we are.