Latest / Balance of Power / Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Defense Spending, Farm Aid, Fed, AI (June 29, 2026)

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Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Defense Spending, Farm Aid, Fed, AI (June 29, 2026) · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is your weekly
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  Speaker 1: Washington policy Pulse, the Balance of Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew.
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  Speaker 1: Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior policy analyst and friend of
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  Speaker 1: the show, Nathan Dean shares his weekly call on upcoming
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  Speaker 1: catalysts in the nation's capital. Listen for the most recent
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  Speaker 1: and relevant policy research from our team at Bloomberg Intelligence.
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  Speaker 1: Now with today's installment, here's Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 2: Good afternoon, everybody. My name is Nathan Dean. I'm senior
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  Speaker 2: policys with Bloomberg Intelligence. Welcome to the Washington Policy Pulse.
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  Speaker 2: We always want to say thank you for those of
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  Speaker 2: you who are listening to us via the Balance Power podcast.
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  Speaker 2: We always appreciate you listening as well. Today's June twenty ninth.
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  Speaker 2: It's ten oh two am. Supreme Court decisions are coming
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  Speaker 2: in as we speak, and that's where I want to
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  Speaker 2: start with, just really the Supreme Court, because not a
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  Speaker 2: lot is happening on.
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  Speaker 3: The congressional perspective.
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  Speaker 2: We'll talk about it in a second, but there are
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  Speaker 2: really two cases that we at Bloomberg Intelligence are tracking,
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  Speaker 2: and I just want to make sure that if you
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  Speaker 2: need an additional insight on that, please let us know.
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  Speaker 2: The first one is the Lisa Cook case. Obviously, this
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  Speaker 2: is Lisa Cook, the Federal Reserve governor. President Trump tried
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  Speaker 2: to remove her. There has been discussions with the courts
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  Speaker 2: about trying to block that. I'm not going to get
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  Speaker 2: into the details, but please note that my colleague Elliott
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  Speaker 2: Stein still has it as a slight favor to Lisa Cook.
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  Speaker 2: So that you know, when that case comes in sometime
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  Speaker 2: this week, you know it's going to somewhat prohibit President
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  Speaker 2: Trump's influence, if you will, on the Federal Reserve unless
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  Speaker 2: you have seen something, Okay, so anyway, sorry, I was
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  Speaker 2: just I saw I saw one of the Supreme Court
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  Speaker 2: headlines come in through the terminal.
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  Speaker 3: I thought it was that.
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  Speaker 2: But anyway, long story shorts is that it's going to
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  Speaker 2: somewhat prohibited President Trump. We're more likely a limit President
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  Speaker 2: Trump's influence over at the for a Reserve. The second
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  Speaker 2: one is Rebecca Slaughter versus the Trump administration. Now she
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  Speaker 2: is a Federal Trade Commission commissioner. This one is a
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  Speaker 2: little bit different. Our team actually thinks President Trump will
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  Speaker 2: have the success here with Supreme Court, and in this
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  Speaker 2: case would allow the president to remove commissioners from independent agencies.
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  Speaker 3: So if this were to actually hold true and we get.
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  Speaker 2: A democratic president in twenty twenty eight, he or she
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  Speaker 2: would then be able to fire Republican commissioners and essentially
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  Speaker 2: remove them for a very little recourse or anything like that.
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  Speaker 2: So anyway, those are really the two cases that we're
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  Speaker 2: tracking this week. Obviously, the bigger one is on the
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  Speaker 2: citizenship growth right issue. That's going to be expected now
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  Speaker 2: the Supreme Court is releasing decisions right now, but there's
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  Speaker 2: also most likely going to be another day this week,
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  Speaker 2: if not two more days. So going away from the
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  Speaker 2: Supreme Court, going back to Congress, just a couple of
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  Speaker 2: updates for you real quickly. The housing bills. So, as
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  Speaker 2: last week you may have seen President Trump refuse to
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  Speaker 2: sign this bipartisan housing bill that has been passed by Congress.
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  Speaker 2: He said that he was not going to do it
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  Speaker 2: until the House actually passed the Save America Act. Now,
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  Speaker 2: I put out my update within probably about forty minutes
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  Speaker 2: of President Trump's announcement, and I said, in a ninety
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  Speaker 2: percent chance, President Trump is still going to sign this
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  Speaker 2: bill or the bill is going to become law. Now
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  Speaker 2: what the story is here is is that when Congress
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  Speaker 2: passes bills, the president in most exceptions, I'm not going
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  Speaker 2: to get into technicalities, but in most exceptions, the president
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  Speaker 2: has ten days to sign that bill or the bill
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  Speaker 2: becomes automatically law. Now, Speaker Johnson over at the House
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  Speaker 2: has not sent the bill yet to the White House.
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  Speaker 3: It's his prerogative.
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  Speaker 2: He could say, look, Congress has passed it, I'm not
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  Speaker 2: going to send it. But he said that he's going
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  Speaker 2: to send it today. So today would be the clock
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  Speaker 2: that starts that ten day time frame. So President Trump
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  Speaker 2: has three choices. He can either sign the bill, he
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  Speaker 2: can veto the bill, or he can say that I'm
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  Speaker 2: going to do nothing and then the bill automatically becomes law.
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  Speaker 2: It's my belief that he'll either sign the bill or
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  Speaker 2: he'll do nothing. Now, if he does veto the bill,
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  Speaker 2: I don't think Congress has the votes to actually overcome it. Now,
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  Speaker 2: even though this bill passed with such a bipartisan amount,
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  Speaker 2: if you were to take those votes, they would override
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  Speaker 2: a presidential veto. It's much more difficult to say that
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  Speaker 2: I'm going to actually override a presidential veto. So I
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  Speaker 2: think if President Trump does come out and says that
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  Speaker 2: this bill is going to be vetoed if you're looking
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  Speaker 2: at the housing sector, and you know, this is one
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  Speaker 2: of the things if you've talked to my colleague dreaw
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  Speaker 2: Rending about, you know, this bill while it doesn't do
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  Speaker 2: a lot of short term impacts, like there's nothing really
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  Speaker 2: short term important in here for this bill, but if
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  Speaker 2: you're looking at like one to three percent incremental home
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  Speaker 2: build of growth over the next few years coming from
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  Speaker 2: this bill, obviously you got to take that into account
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  Speaker 2: if you see that veto come through.
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  Speaker 3: But I don't think the veto is going to come through.
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  Speaker 2: I think President Trump ultimately will sign this bill, or
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  Speaker 2: like I said, he'll do nothing.
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  Speaker 3: Now.
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  Speaker 2: That also brings the question that, Okay, well then what
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  Speaker 2: is the Save America Act? So why how is President
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  Speaker 2: Trump going to get back this because this is actually
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  Speaker 2: actually locking a lot of what's happening here in the
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  Speaker 2: House this week. So the Senator's gone until July thirteenth,
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  Speaker 2: the House is here now. The House actually has some
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  Speaker 2: work that has to do related to the National Defense Authorization.
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  Speaker 2: The NDAA also has some work to do in terms
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  Speaker 2: of Kids Online Safety Act, which my colleague Matt Shttenhelm
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  Speaker 2: has been writing about. So there's a little bit of
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  Speaker 2: work that the House has to do here, But there
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  Speaker 2: are members of the House that are saying, look, I
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  Speaker 2: am not going to support anything. I'm not going to
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  Speaker 2: allow the House to move forward until you deal with
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  Speaker 2: the Save America Act. Now, this is that bill, like
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  Speaker 2: we've talked about before, that would put essentially citizenship requirements
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  Speaker 2: on voting across the nation.
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  Speaker 3: And if you're watching to.
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  Speaker 2: Us from outside of the United States, please remember that
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  Speaker 2: voting is largely a state's driven issue, not a federal
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  Speaker 2: federal reserve.
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  Speaker 3: It's not a federal issue here in the US.
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  Speaker 2: Now, the way this is going to play out, and
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  Speaker 2: according to my thinking is this is that there's no
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  Speaker 2: way you're going to get to Save America Act. There's
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  Speaker 2: no way you're going to get it past the filibuster
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  Speaker 2: proof majority. Nor is the filibuster going away. You know,
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  Speaker 2: people are talking about doing this talking filibuster. Well, if
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  Speaker 2: you were to go the talking filibuster route, where you
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  Speaker 2: would actually force somebody to talk twenty four hours a
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  Speaker 2: day on the and then when that filibuster ends, then.
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  Speaker 3: You can vote.
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  Speaker 2: We Democrats could offer as many amendments as they want,
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  Speaker 2: and so you could just essentially say, we have forty
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  Speaker 2: seven senators, if we have twenty four hours a day,
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  Speaker 2: let's each take an hour and then we'll just talk
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  Speaker 2: into the the rest of this congressional term and we'll
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  Speaker 2: just run out the clock. I mean, there is certainly
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  Speaker 2: ways that this can work that Democrats can certainly make
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  Speaker 2: a talking filibuster not really work all that worthwhile Senate
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  Speaker 2: Majority leaders, you know, John Thune knows this. So you're
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  Speaker 2: not going to get the Save America through. So how
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  Speaker 2: what's going to work? Well, most likely, I think what
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  Speaker 2: the House is going to do, and this is why
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  Speaker 2: I think Speaker Johnson is saying that he's going to
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  Speaker 2: send the bill to the White House is in Reconciliation
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  Speaker 2: three point zero. If you attach Save America Act to
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  Speaker 2: Reconciliation three point zero, the Senate Parliamentarian is going to say, no,
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  Speaker 2: you can't do it.
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  Speaker 3: It's going to strip it out.
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  Speaker 2: But if you offer four billion dollars worth of incentives
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  Speaker 2: to states that implement the Save America Act, well that
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  Speaker 2: may be a budgetary issue in the Senate Parliamentary may
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  Speaker 2: actually be okay with that. I think that's where this is.
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  Speaker 2: So it's going to be one of those situations where
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  Speaker 2: President Trump can say that we're going to implement the
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  Speaker 2: Save America Act, but it's only going to be for
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  Speaker 2: states that actually implement it, which really isn't going to
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  Speaker 2: change the narrative all that much, and at the price
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  Speaker 2: tag of four billion dollars, it isn't really going to
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  Speaker 2: drive things on the reconciliation debate all that much. And
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  Speaker 2: for what it's worth. Just remember we talked about it
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  Speaker 2: last week. I don't think reconciliation three point zero can happen.
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  Speaker 2: A couple of other things going on. Actually two last things.
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  Speaker 2: Last week we saw the President in the White House
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  Speaker 2: release a eighty seven point six billion dollar request for
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  Speaker 2: supplemental funds tied to the Department of Defense and also
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  Speaker 2: the Iranian conflict. Now, my colleague Wayne Sanders has a
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  Speaker 2: note that he's working on. I'm working on a note
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  Speaker 2: on that. All you need to know is at this
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  Speaker 2: point is is that supplemental bills are very difficult to
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  Speaker 2: get through, especially towards the end of appropriation season, and
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  Speaker 2: if the congressional appropriators aren't too thrilled with the idea
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  Speaker 2: of an eighty seven billion dollar request coming in right
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  Speaker 2: around when the appropriation season is supposed to be done.
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  Speaker 2: It just makes it difficult. But I'll have further thoughts
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  Speaker 2: on that. Look for it on the terminal later this week.
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  Speaker 2: But included in that eighty seven point six billion dollar
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  Speaker 2: request was eleven billion dollars for farm Aid.
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  Speaker 3: Now we've talked about farm aid before.
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  Speaker 2: You know, if you remember back in the tail end
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  Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five, President Trump gave eleven billion dollars
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  Speaker 2: worth of farm Aide. It actually came through a program.
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  Speaker 2: Most of that's been doled out with This would be
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  Speaker 2: a second round of this. Despite the fact that I
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  Speaker 2: think eleven billion dollars in farm Maid is not much
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  Speaker 2: that both sides of the party can get on board
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  Speaker 2: with and say it. It's roped up into this bigger package,
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  Speaker 2: and as a result, I'm not exactly sure I can come.
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  Speaker 2: If we are going to see farm aid, it's most
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  Speaker 2: likely going to come from the appropriation side, not so much.
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  Speaker 2: An Iranian supplemental defense built that was included to try
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  Speaker 2: and entice Democrats to get on board with this, and
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  Speaker 2: from what I'm gathering.
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  Speaker 3: From the Democrats, they're not getting on board with this.
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  Speaker 2: So the last thing I want to leave you with
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  Speaker 2: is artificial intelligence. Now I don't have anything specific for you.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously we see the houseworking on this Kid's
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  Speaker 2: Online Safety Act, but just keep in mind when we
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  Speaker 2: get into July, things are going to really slow down
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  Speaker 2: from a congressional point of view. Really, the only thing
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  Speaker 2: that I'm looking at and send in Congress in July
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  Speaker 2: is the Clarity Act, and for what it's worth, I
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  Speaker 2: still think it passes, but look, a time is getting tight.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, if it does.
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  Speaker 2: Pass, it's going to be the last day that they
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  Speaker 2: pass in July and head out for August recess.
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  Speaker 3: So it's going to be quick.
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  Speaker 2: But when it comes to artificial intelligence, Senator Ted Cruz
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  Speaker 2: is going to hold a markup later in July where
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  Speaker 2: he's going to release his bill. Now, his bill is
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  Speaker 2: still in the work, so I don't want to get
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  Speaker 2: into specifics. But as you can imagine, there's a lot
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  Speaker 2: of different thoughts about artificial intelligence at the moment. There's
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  Speaker 2: a lot of what's called NIMBI not in my backyard.
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  Speaker 2: There's lots of discussion about anti data center prepositioning ahead
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  Speaker 2: the midterms, etc. So just keep in mind there there's
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  Speaker 2: going to be a lot of headlines coming out to
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  Speaker 2: artificial intelligence.
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  Speaker 3: In July and August.
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  Speaker 2: Nothing is really going to happen all that much from
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  Speaker 2: a restriction point of view or a roadblock point of view.
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  Speaker 2: This is going to be mostly headline risk, so just
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  Speaker 2: keep that in mind. We're actually going to be working
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  Speaker 2: on a larger report on artificial intelligence policy, so give
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  Speaker 2: us a call back in August and we'll have a
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  Speaker 2: little bit more for you. But I just wanted to
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  Speaker 2: give you the heads up because for my friends on
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  Speaker 2: Capitol Hill, this is essentially going to be the next
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  Speaker 2: major topic Inly and August. So last thing I know
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  Speaker 2: I said last thing before, Now it's the last thing.
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  Speaker 2: We will not be having a call next week. Happy
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  Speaker 2: Independence Day to all of you in the United States.
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  Speaker 2: For this weekend, my wife and I are actually flying
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  Speaker 2: Chicago dropping the kids off at camp Gramma and Grandpa
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  Speaker 2: saying that your problem. We're heading off the vamps for
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  Speaker 2: a week, so we will come back to you in MIDJII.
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  Speaker 2: But I want to say thank you for attending these calls.
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  Speaker 2: We really appreciate it. And if we can ever be
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  Speaker 2: of servants, please don't hesitate to reach out.
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  Speaker 1: Our thanks to Nathan Dee, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst,
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  Speaker 1: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse.
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  Speaker 1: For more from BI or to join this call live
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  Speaker 1: each week, you can email Nathan a nd at Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: dot net. That's n d e a n at Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: dot net and come back to the podcast later today
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  Speaker 1: for the latest edition of Balance of Power.