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NFC East Betting Preview with Ross Tucker · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Action Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We are presented by Bett three six five. We're continuing
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: the final division preview for our division preview series. We
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: are doing the NFC East today. We've had so many
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: fantastic guests on the Favorites podcast during the division preview series.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Rounding it out with another winner, a winner of a
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: guest who may or may not have done something to
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter the last time he was on the show,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: which some of our live listeners are referring to. I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: can't remember what it is. He can't remember what it is.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Simon might remember what it is. But it's time to
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: bring in my bff, my companion, Mike cam Padre, my
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: co host, Professional Better Simon Hunter.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: So I am in Hello Chat. It's a bittersweet day.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: It is truly football season right around the corner. It's
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: my last day and MAUI coming back East for the
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: kickoff of the season. Got a feels like I got
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: like thirty fantasy football drafts and I got a lot
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: of work to do in the next two weeks before
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: we start the season. So I'm ready. I'm ready to
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: get some real football.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I feel like the season is is so close and
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: there that we are going through preseason right now with
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: these division previews, I also feel like, here's honest to god,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: here's what I feel like. I feel like the Favorites
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: is on the precipice of getting even bigger, and we
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: have so much stuff going on with the show right now.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Number one, remind everybody, we'll give you more details when
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: it comes. But we got a big, big, big money contest.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: People are gonna be able to do their five best
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: each week against you and me. We are going to
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: be on Sunday nights when the season starts Tuesdays Thursdays
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: right now. By the way, reminder, you can watch us
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. You can like us on YouTube, you can
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: subscribe to our YouTube channel on Action Network. All of
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: it's making me a little nervous, and I'm feeling a
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: little bit of like anxiety on the part of everybody.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Do you feel it too? Uh No.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: That's what separates me and Chad right there. I live
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: for this well. Chad gets a little a little nervous
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: about it. But now the pressure, Chad, it's real. That's
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: my favorite part about this job is I told you
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: we go five and oh I wake up Monday. It
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: doesn't matter. You're already onto the next week. So I'm
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: looking forward to those days of tunnel work and you know,
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: winning a lot of money.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Well, listen our next guest for this division preview series.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: He understands pressure at every level, at the highest level.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: We're gonna bring him on a second. As a reminder,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: The Favorite Podcast is proudly presented by Bet three sixty five,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code
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  Speaker 1: action to get BET three six five exclusive sign up offer.
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  Speaker 1: A bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred
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  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus. Bets must be twenty one or older.
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  Speaker 1: Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem call or text one eight hundred Gambler is
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: time to bring him on. Former NFL offensive lineman Ross
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Tucker Yay, friend of the pod, host of the Ross
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Ross Tucker Football Podcast, the Ross Tucker Podcast Network. Find
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: him at Ross Tucker NFL. He is so dedicated to
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: the NFC East. He has done preseason games for the
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Eagles for the past six years. We're recording this on Thursday.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: It's live right now for some people Tonight's Eagles preseason
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: game is a prime game, so Ross Tucker will not
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: be broadcasting it. He's still going to the game with
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: his family. Ross Tucker, you aren't dedicated. You've played at
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: the highest level, you have confronted pressure at the highest level.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: You're now gonna confront it today on the Favorites podcast.
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: I love it.
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: Good to see you guys, Good to talk with you, guys.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: I got like five things to say just based off
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: the opening there. First of all, yes, it's true, I'm
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: not calling the game the night. It'll be Al Michaels
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: and Kirk Herbstreet big downgrade unfortunately for Eagles.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: Phittnam.
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: I'm just kidding, No, disagree, just Al Michaels, no big deal.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: That's gonna be a touchdown.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: There's no extra point. But that made me meaningful to
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: some of you, and you know who I mean.
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: But no, it's funny because I'm actually gonna go to
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: the Jersey Shore with my family and we typically leave
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: on Thursdays. We're gonna be driving by the stadium while
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: the game is about to go on. So I thought,
• 4:56
  Speaker 5: you know what, I never get the tailgate. I never
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: get to take my wife and two daughters to a
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: game because I'm always the one calling the game. I'm
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: always working, So I don't know how many beers I'm
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: gonna have in the parking lot, but I'm gonna have
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: at least a couple, because that's the worst part of
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: being a broadcaster is I drive into the stadium three
• 5:15
  Speaker 5: hours for the game and I see all these people
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: smiling and having fun and drinking and eating, and I'm like,
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: all dressed up and I can't drink and I'm doing
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: the game. That's like the five minutes that I'm jealous
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: every week when I do a game, so very much.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Looking forward to.
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: Tailgate a little bit tonight, taking my daughters to the game,
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: then heading down to the beach at the Jersey Shore,
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: Simon Hunter's Neck of the Woods, if you will down there,
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: and so that should be fun. And yes, I appreciate
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: you mentioning the podcast network.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: We're growing. It's awesome.
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: You guys have both been multiple times, I believe, on
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: the Even Money podcast, the Betting podcast with Steve Isaac,
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: which does very well, and Simon for all those fantasy drafts,
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: make sure you're listening or watching the Fantasy Feast podcast.
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: Although Simon, you gotta tell me what did I do
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: last year that everybody keeps referencing because I don't remember it.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: What did I do to you? I don't think it
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: was you.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: I got a couple of people hit me up now
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: that are sending me clips because I honestly didn't really
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: know much either. The biggest thing that happened last year
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: was when I went on Ross's show as my Eagle
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Phantom got a little little strong Chad.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Oh so it wasn't on our show, It was on
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Rosser's show.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was the boys over at a Pro Football Focus.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: They had a good time making fun of me because
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: I said the Eagles would have a top three D
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: line and they said, in no world would the Eagles
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: have a top three D line. Little did they know
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: the Eagles are gonna get seventy sacks. I didn't know that,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: but yeah, they got egg on their face line.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: I definitely nailed that one. Took a lot of heat
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: for it in August when I went on ross the
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: show to make that prediction. Yeah, and then you know
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: there's always gonna be naysayers. I think Steve, who he
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: works with, was giving me a hard time just because
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: you know, I said some things about my betting syndicate,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: and not that Steve was making fun of me. He was
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: more than he was giving me shit, saying it wasn't feasible.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: And you know, I'll just say this, Steve's been in
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: the business a long time. He is someone that won
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: a pickpool. I understand where he's coming from, but he
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: doesn't really know about my life and what I do.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: So that's part of the business. I mean, it's lucky
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: for me. I'm in a business where my record is public,
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: so I just got to give winners. If I give winners,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: our show will keep growing chat and lucky for me,
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: I give a lot a winner. So me and Ross
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: not got no beef. My My favorite line was my
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: uncle from England was watching the game last week with Ross.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: He goes that Ross Tucker is a funny fuck? Is
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: that a comedian? And I was like, he's not a comedian,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: he's an offensive a ligneman. He's like, you're fucking kidding me.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: I was like, no, that's that's how funny Americans can get.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: And he's like, he's like, well, Americans aren't funny, but
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  Speaker 2: that guy's a funny fuck. That's how England views Ross
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Tucker right now.
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: Hey listen, I'll take it for you know, preseason game.
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: You're a unique animal, right, I mean it's a lot
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: of second and third string guys. You know, you're kind
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: of telling more stories than you are just breaking down
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: each play.
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: Got to try to keep it a little bit entertaining.
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: I'm surprised he likes me, Simon after what I said
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: about soccer, although I didn't knock soccer for the record,
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  Speaker 5: chat talking about how the game was growing internationally and
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: there are always people were tweeting me because the Eagles
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: have rights in Australia, New Zealand and Africa, so people
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: were tweeting me from all over those places watching the game.
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  Speaker 3: I was like amazed, and I mean this sincerely.
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: I mean a little bit tongue in cheek, but I
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: love that we're growing the game internationally because think about
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: how many children all around the world think that soccer
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: is the best sport. I mean, Chad, can we please
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: think about the children out there? And I'm not saying
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: football is ever going to be more popular worldwide than soccer.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: I just know this show me someone that played soccer
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: and then played football and went back to soccer, or
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: said soccer is more fun. I played soccer for five
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: years from age six to eleven.
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: I really like soccer.
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: Then I put a helmet and shoulder pads on and
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: I knocked somebody over and soccer was gone forever.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: I mean forever.
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: Like like scoring a goal is cool, running into somebody
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  Speaker 5: and knocking them on their butt.
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  Speaker 4: That that's way, way better than anything you can do
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  Speaker 4: in soccer.
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  Speaker 1: I love.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: Here's what I love Ross.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Before we get on the air, It's like, guys, I
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: got to be out here in forty five minutes. We
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: have spent five minutes talking about Ross and soccer. Can
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: we get to the REDDA please? Please? Can we get
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: to the betting, because honestly, the NFC East, We've got it.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: We've got some really cool stats that Evan Abrams are
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: head of research, sort of digs up every year, for
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: every week, for every game. Three stats that are very
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: relevant to the NFCS that I want to say right
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: off the bat. Number one, eighteen of the past twenty years,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: an NFL team has gone worse to first in its division.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Last three years Jags, Bengals, Washington, Washington. Obviously in the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: NFC East went seven to ten last year. This is
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: one of the tightest races in the NFL, one of
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: the tightest division race. The division races this year are
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: tighter than they've ever been. No division favorite, including the
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles, is minus two hundred or better. It's the
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: first time that's the case since two thousand and four.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Nine of the last ten Super Bowl champions began the
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: season as twelve to one favorites to win the Super
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Bowl or less. That includes Chiefs, Bengals, Bills nine, and Eagles,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: who have the second shortest odds at seven to one. So, guys,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: we've got a division here with the defending conference champs
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and the Eagles, which has not been a good omen
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: for teams. We have a team in the Cowboys that
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: everybody loves because everyone assumes they're one, you know, quarterback
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: play of greatness away from contending. We have the Giants,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: who had the Coach of the Year last year and
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Brian Dabole. And then we've got the Commanders, who actually
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: do have a lot of people would say a top
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: five defensive line with Chase Young coming back. So we're
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: going to get some best bets right off the bat.
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  Speaker 1: I want to start with the Eagles. Eleven and a
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  Speaker 1: half is the over plus one hundred. The under is
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty five. Their odds to win the division
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty ross. I want to start with you.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: You are in Philly, you are covering the Eagles. You
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: know this team. Well, can they still ascend? Can they
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: get those final three points? Is just say come down year?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: What happens?
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: Well, they're a really interesting team because they lost seven
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: starters and here we are going into the last preseason
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: game tonight, they still don't know who's starting at linebacker
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: in safety. You know, that's pretty rare. I would say
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: for a team with Super Bowl aspiration, the team coming
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: off of this Super Bowl, I think they feel good
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: about their options next to Reed Blank and Ship at safety.
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: I think they feel good about their options next to
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: n Kobe Dean at linebacker, and so.
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: They've got some guys that are gonna work in there.
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: They don't prioritize those positions, right. Their d line is
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: gonna be nasty again, and Simon was one thousand percent
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: right last year. Their corners are good. That's where they
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: invest their resources. And I think the question is at
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: this point not whether or not they're linebackers and safeties
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: will be as good as last year because they won't.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: They're not gonna be. I mean, I'd be.
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: Surprised that linebackers are as good as Kaysier White and
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: especially TJ. Edwards was last year, or if the safeties
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: are as good as Gardner, Johnson and Epps. The question
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: is are they good enough? And I think the answer
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: with that D line in those corners is probably yes.
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: The other thing that people I think are missing out
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: on a little bit they lost two starters on offense,
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: Miles Sanders and the right guard, Isaac Samalo. They're better
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: at running back I think. I mean, I would take
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: de Andre Swift and Rashad Penny that combo over Miles
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: Sanders any day of the week. Right guard will be interesting.
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: Sayamlo is better than people getting credit for. I do
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: think Jurgens will be pretty good. The major concern that
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: I would have for the Eagles this year is probably health.
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: You know, health and the new coordinators. It's not easy.
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: There's not a long track record of success. Check Chad
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: having two new coordinators, not just one, but two new coordinators,
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: and you'll wonder where the growing pains will be there
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: and if that costs them a game or two. And
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: then the Eagles have been unusually healthy the last couple
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: of years. I mean, you know, they had some years
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: twenty nineteen, twenty twenty eight years where everybody's getting hurt
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: and they had tons of guys injured. Even the Super
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: Bowl year when they won it, they had a bunch
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: of guys on ir. The last two years, they've been
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: very healthy.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: It's rare to see that trend in the NFL continue
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: for a third year, right, So, I think they're going
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: to lose some guys this year. It's a matter of
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: who or when. The thing I think I tell people, though,
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: is I think Hurts is better than he was last
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: year from what I've seen in camp, and the best
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: game he played was the super Bowl. They lost two
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: games he started last year, two that Commander's Game on
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: Monday night and the super Bowl. I know their schedule
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: is a little bit tougher. I would lean to the
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: over because I think it's probably more likely they win
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: twelve or thirteen than it is that they win ten
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: or eleven. But I think that's the right number. I
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: don't have a strong feeling on this. I think somewhere
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: between eleven and twelve is the right number for the
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: Eagles season win total. But I have a slight lean
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: to the over.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Well, I like the price over is plus one hundred.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, who I mentioned in previous podcasts as a
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: writer at Action, has been doing these incredible write ups
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: looking at ranking teams offensively ranking their offensive line. Ross,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: You'll be glad to know that when Brandon ranks the
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: offensive line. When he did his offensive line rankings, he
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: relies on Pro Football Focus, Established the Round, Sharp Football,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: and Ross Tucker. As he builds his aggregate offensive line rankings.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Brandon and everybody else agrees even with a new right guard,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Eagles offensive line top offensive line in the NFL. Simon
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Ross likes the over eleven and a half.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: Tell me what you think, Yeah, And it's just we
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: play the numbers and statistically. You want to fade a
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: team after they lose a Super Bowl, Right, We saw
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: time and time again these teams have let down, and
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: it's always usually because they have a harder scheduled upcoming season. Right,
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: They're not this team that sneaks up on people, and
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: a lot of stuff goes into having such a good
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: season and we've seen historically the NFC East, the winner
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: of the past season doesn't repeat. It's just the way
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: it is divisions. It's just such a competitive vision that
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: their ownerships all spend money. Overall, they're all really good, right,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: I mean the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Giants, all these
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: different super Bowls. It's it's just a tough division year
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: and a year out. So when you're looking on paper,
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: I would say Eagles fans have never been more cocky,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: chat like they're they're feeling themselves right now, and it's
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: it's all because how he's just been nailing these drafts.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think I go a day without
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: hearing Jalen Carter's name. Every day I'm hearing this kid's name.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: So it's been interesting where the Eagles have lost starters
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: from last season, but how he's playing the game. And
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: the game is what are the most weak positions on
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: an NFL team that there's an influx of talent? Like
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: where's there a ton of talent across the board in
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: the NFL at all these different positions, And time and
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: time again we see it's running back, linebacker, and safety.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: That's where you can really go cheap and find serviceable talent.
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: So that's what how he's doing, right. He's we talk
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: about year, you really built out the team through the
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: D line, the O line. That's why we loved them.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Our whole plan last year was Firtz takes that next step,
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: we would love the Eagles, and yeah, it really worked
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: out for us. I mean I think I had them
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: at thirty five to one and the Chiefs at eleven
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: o one. I mean that was the dream scenario, them
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: and playing each other in Super Bowl this year. I
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: can't do it with this Eagles team. Like I do
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: love this team, but Eagles fans need to realize the
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: difference between them and the Cowboys is not what it
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: looks like on paper. Right the Eagles, you know, they
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: were I believe minus one twenty or minus one thirty
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: and the Cowboys are plus two hundred. And when we
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: talked about them and what was that may and I said,
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: this is where you want to bet the Cowboys, Like
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: that's a good number on the Cowboys team, that they're
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: not as bad as people think. I mean that's issue.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: The season ends and people's last images of Dak Prescott
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: losing to a seventh round rookie in the playoffs. Like,
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: I get where they're coming from that they don't believe
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: him in the playoffs. We're talking regular season here. So
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: to me, this Eagles team, I will take a small
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: bit on the under. I got them right at eleven wins.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: So that half game bump makes sense because that's the
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: public viewing the team as dominant. If there's any team
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: that could repeat in this division, finally, it's gotta be
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: this Eagles team with Hurts. I mean, this guy is
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: still mentally tough. We all know all the quotes, everything
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: we've heard and said. I mean his background is the
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl him walking to the confetti. You will now
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: find someone more mentally tougher than football than him. This
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: kid has been through it all. So not being a Homer,
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna fade the Eagles, I mean, that's just what
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: I have to do here. But I would say, come January,
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: if this team wins this division for the first time,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: a team repeat winner in this division, to lead this
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: division in I think twenty years, I won't be shocked.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, this kid across the board does it all right.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: I Mean he got paid that big contract, he went
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: in and signed it. And then he went into the
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: facility of the gym and lyft I gotta work out
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: it like this kid is just all business. So yeah,
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: as an ego, I'm really excited and as a better
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: I'm excited to fade this team. I mean week one,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: we already joked about it. We love the Patriots week one.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: So it's just a team that they'll be inflated I
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: think for the first three or four weeks, and then
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: the books will eventually catch up to this team. So
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: to me, Eagles any type of futures, I really don't
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: have much positive form, but yeah for for win total
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: and taking their under nothing Divisionally, if I'm going to
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: bet them division, I'll do that in mid season. But
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: there's no value there betting them minus one twenty and
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: win this division.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: So the Cowboys are now at plus one eighty. And
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: it is interesting to me. We preach on this show
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: all the time. We love offensive line, we love defensive line.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Eagles have the best offensive line in the NFL, arguably
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: top three. Let's say it's you know a combination of Chiefs, Eagles,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: and Browns, and they have arguably the top defensive line.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: It's seven Sachs last year on defense, and they added
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: Jalen Carter. We've joked about we're naming a new bet
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: this year, Howie Roseman, because it's the best, most obvious
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: bet to make, where you don't have to outthink yourself.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: You just do what's the right thing that's.
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: Right in front of you.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Because he does it every year with his draft picks.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: And Jalen Carter was another Howie Roseman special. And like you, Simon,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I've heard nothing but about how this kid is the
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: leading candidate from a betting perspective to be the defensive
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: rookie of the year. Right, So I agree with everything
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: you're saying, and yet I want to fade him too,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: And let's let's use that like to move into the
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Cowboys at plus one to eighty because I do think
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: that there is like something about this division and this
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: team that you have to be watching out for. And
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: you were saying, like, don't be fool what you see
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: on pay for Simon, I want to start with you
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: and the Cowboys. Why are you saying that about the
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: delta between the Eagles and the and the Cowboys.
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: I just think it's just the way the public works,
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: right then, they always like the new shiny toy, and
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: that's what they're looking at. The Eagles team where the Cowboys.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: How could you have not been disappointed in them? I mean,
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: the last seven years they always have an above average
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: defense and above average offense and they just flame that
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: when it comes to the playoffs. But we're not too
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: worried about that. Like I won't put any futures on
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: them that win Super Bowl, but I will be betting
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: on them to go over the win total and to
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: win this division. It's just it's a smart bet to make.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: Like they have one of the best defenses in football.
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: Now they've made a Cooks to that wide receiving course,
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: so now they have Cooks Gallop in Ceedee Lamb. Like
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: those are three really talented wide receivers. No more Zeka
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: Laid either, which I think is gonna be upgrade for them.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Now Pollard's getting all the touches. And you know this
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: good deuced, this little guy. He could be an incredible
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: running back for them in the red zone. I mean,
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: people don't realize these small running backs are actually pretty
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: good in the red zone. The Eagles, Boston Scott, who I
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: know not a lot of people know, but Giants know,
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: I think he scored every game in his career against
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: the Giants, So these little scat backs are pretty talented
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: in the red zone. So it's just all there for
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: this this Cowboys team, and you know they're about to
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: have to pay a lot of guys. So to me,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: this is one of those years we want to bet
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: them right, they're gonna be a team that you know,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: they just brought back Zach Martin, which was a really
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: smart move by Jerry, Like that was you know, his
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: ego is getting the way there him now realizing this
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: guy is by far the best at his position. I mean,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: he really is that good and he's a game changer
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: for this team. So if he didn't come back, I
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: was honestly tempted to fade the Cowboys because I thought
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: that had been that big of a deal losing that key,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: that key piece on their offensive line. Now that he's back,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: that's gonna make up for the week. Whatever position they
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: are this year on all offense. You know that I
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: do have questions about their tackles, but overall, I think
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: their offensive line is gonna be really good. And then
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: we already know how dominant their d lin is gonna be.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: So to me, you know, I know that difference between
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: them the Eagles is only like two or three games, right,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: because Eagles got first place. They both had pretty tough
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: schedules somehow statistically if you look on paper, the schedule
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: breaks a little easier for the Eagles. But this Cowboys team,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: I think that they will be the team at the
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: end of the year that will win this division. So
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: the nine and a half is really juiced up. I
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: think it's at like minus two seventy.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, minus nine and a half if you can, I.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Just try to find a ten or at ten and
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: a half, like, I'd rather take that with less juice
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: because I could easily see this team getting eleven, eleven
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: or twelve wins. I mean, Dak got hurt and they
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: won four out of five with Cooper Rush like it's
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: it's all built there for them. So I don't think
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: he'll be hurt like he was last year. Deck, I
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: don't think he'll have that many turnovers he had last year.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: He actually led the league interceptions even though he missed
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: all those games.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: Jets.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: So to me, this team, you know, they were a
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: game or two back of the Eagles to win this
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: division last year, and I just don't see the Eagles
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: getting in the many breaks they had last year's so
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: I think their price is really nice now in the Cowboys,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: and I think that's where the value is for this division.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: It's just the difference in them and the Eagles is very,
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: very small, but it's not what the public perceives or
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: public is making this plus one hundred difference when it's
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: really not that big of a delta. So if you
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: want to take the value in this division's definitely to
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: this Cowboys team.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: What's interesting about the Cowboys and Ross I want you
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: to speak to this is according to Sean Kerner, the
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Eagles have the easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: have the third easiest. The NFC East overall has their
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: four teams collection of the easiest schedule in the NFL. Again,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Kerner is updating this constantly, so this is dynamic based
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: on rosters, based on when you were playing a team
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: and who their quarterback is going to be. It's not
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: sort of a set it and forget it from either
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: last year's performance for a team and their opponents, or
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: even projected win totals. He is building this in real
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: time here's what Brandon Anderson said about the offensive line,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: and Simon, he agrees with you about Zach Martin. Dallas
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: is easily top five, and Ross, I want you to
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: speak to this because it's personally based on your analysis.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Dallas has Super Bowl upside if their five top offensive
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: linemen are healthy in December and January. Your take, Ross Tucker.
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: Well, so that probably goes for the whole Cowboys roster,
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: but certainly the offensive line. I mean, Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith,
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: be Oddish, Zach Martin, Terrence Steele, that's pretty impressive. The
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: problem is Zach's getting up there in years, Tyron Smith
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: gets hurt every year, and Terren Steele's coming off a major,
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: major injury. And you look at their backups and these
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: guys have like never played. I mean, it's very interesting
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: to me how different the Cowboys and Eagles go about
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: certain things. Like the Eagles would never let it be
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: the case that they would have no backups with really
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: experience that, because they know that that can sink your
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: whole season. That's why they'll always have Jack Driscoll and
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: they'll always bring in these other guys, Dennis Kelly, Josh
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: Andrews just to make sure that the backups they do
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: have are good enough. But for sure the Cowboys should
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: have a top five offensive line when those guys are healthy.
• 27:33
  Speaker 5: I think they have a top five roster. I'm very
• 27:36
  Speaker 5: high on the Cowboys roster this year. Their biggest holes
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: last year were probably number two wide receiver and number
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: two corner to go out and get Brandon Cooks, who
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: was a number one the year before in Houston, and
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: Stefan Gilmour, a number one the year before in Indy.
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: Now, those guys might not be what they used to be.
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: They might not be high end ones anymore, but they're
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: definitely high end twos, you know, as being the second
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: guy with Gilmore and Coach. I thought those were great
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: trades by the Cowboys. They're not even paying them that much.
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: Their prior team took on a bunch of their salary.
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: Fantastic trades and as a results, one of the reasons
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: I like the Cowboys over. You know, my biggest concern
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: with the Cowboys they ran killen More out of town,
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: and I just don't understand it. Over the last four years, okay,
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: Cowboys are second in the NFL in yards and points,
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: second behind only the Chiefs, and Simon mentioned this, think
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: about many games.
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: Andy Dalton, Cooper Rush Ben Denucci.
• 28:45
  Speaker 5: Started right, and they're still fourth in yards and points.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: Yet they get Kellen Moore out of town, so.
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: That Mike McCarthy says, I want to run the ball
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: so I can rest my defense.
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: You sure about that? Sure about good luck? Cowboys?
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: I really do think the two things that can prevent
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: the Cowboys from making a run in the postseason.
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: I think it's Mike McCarthy and I think it's.
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: Injuries because they just lack depth, especially on the offensive line.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Well, look, isn't that amazing about Mike McCarthy. You go
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: back to Green Bay and it was the same questions,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: like people would bet against Mike McCarthy being able to
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: do the right thing. And then we've seen it in
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: the past few years in Dallas, consistently making the wrong
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: coaching decisions at the end of games. And so I
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: would fully anticipate and everything you guys are saying about
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys is true. This roster, if they are healthy,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: is amazing. And Simon completely agree. Tony Pollard getting the
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: majority of carries and not having Zeke Elliott is a benefit.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks is fantastic. It's like everywhere he goes, he produces.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: He takes pressure off the number one because he's still
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: so freaking fast. They have an incredible defense. They have
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: so many playmakers on defense. This will be a dynamic
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: kind of you know, old school Cowboys, get up the
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: field fast defense. Love this tip, love everything about it.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Totally gonna look for an over ten and a half
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: autline to get a much smaller price. And then in
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, in the first round, they're going to lose
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: because Mike McCarthy is going to make bad decisions. That's
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: just what's gonna happen.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: It's just the way it is.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: But you know what I'm looking forward to. I'm looking
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: forward to in the first six weeks of the season
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys and the Eagles both play the Jets. I'm
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: looking forward to the Cowboys and the Eagles both beating
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: the Jets so we can continue to preach fading the
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: j e Ts Jets, Jets, Jets. But you know what,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: I'm in the New York area and at some point
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: this year I might want to get tickets to a
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Jets game, And when I do, I'm going to open
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: the game Time app. You guys have heard me talk
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: about game Time. It's the fastest growing ticketing app in
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the US. I love game Time, honestly, I use it
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: all the time. And if you're looking to get out
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: to a proo college game this week, or even a concert,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: game Time has amazing last minute deals on tickets to
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: all of these. I'm opening the game Time app right
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: now from my house here in Connecticut. What do you know?
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: What do you know?
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: I can get into a Yankees game tonight for six bucks.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: By the way, I can also get into a Mets
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: game tomorrow night for twenty two bucks. No matter where
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: you live, download the game Time app. Get out have
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: some fun this week. You deserve it, and you can
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Terms apply again. Just download the app, enter code favorites
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: for twenty dollars off. So download game Time today. Last
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: minute tickets lows price guaranteed, by the way. Before we
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: move on from the Eagles and the Cowboys, the Eagles,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, number one defensive line in
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Look, they've added Jalen Carter. We've been talking
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: about that. This is a great line from the PFF
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: write up. There is a case to be made that
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia's second string defensive line would also rank in the
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: top twenty on this list. The Cowboys defensive line also fantastic.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: The Giants defensive line, it's the next team that I
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: want to talk about. No player. They've got the ninth
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: ranked defensive line according to Pro Football Focalist Focus, no
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: player improved as much as interior defender Dexter Lawrence did
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, ending the campaign as the second
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: highest graded player at his position. Dexter Lawrence Leonard Williams
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: both had great, great years last year. The Giants their
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: plus seven hundred you win the division. Their season win
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: total is seven and a half. The over is plus
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: one hundred ross. You know this division very well. What
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: do you feel like we're saying about the New York
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: Football Giants?
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: Now, I hate this because, as we talk about all
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: the time on the even Money podcast, usually the value
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: is in the unders, and you know, you should look
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: to unders because if you add them all up, it's
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: actually you know, the values in the unders.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: Totally get that.
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: But seven and a half, seven and a half for
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: the Giants, that's stunning to me, It really is. I mean,
• 33:39
  Speaker 5: I just think that they are much more likely. I
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: always look at it right. I think they're much more
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: likely to win eight or nine games than they are
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: six or seven.
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: I just do.
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: I don't think they're going to be a great team,
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: but I have a tough time picturing Daniel Jones being
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: worse in year two under Brian, and he actually started
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: to play really well in the second half of the
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: year last year. I had their right guard Mark Lewinsky
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: on the Ross Tucker Football podcast recently and he said
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: that he felt like Daniel Jones earlier in the year
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: was like trying to be perfect, and you know, he
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: had the contract thing and the new coach, and second
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: half of the year, Daniel he just kept telling it,
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: just have fun, man, just have fun. And Daniel Jones
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: played like a guy that was having fun in the
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: second half.
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: Of the year.
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: I think Darren Waller will be significant. It's not a
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: great team. They might not make the playoffs. I know
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: they won their fair share of close games last year,
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: but they also won a road playoff game in Minnesota.
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: They deserve some credit for that. I once again liked
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: the over for the Giants. I have them winning eight
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: or nine games to get over.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: I feel like this really comes down to You could
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: talk about Daniel Jones, you can talk about Saquon Barkley,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: you can talk about Darrel Waller, you can talk about
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: an improving defensive line. Their offensive line is pretty dreadful.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, this comes down to
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: Brian Dabo, Right, he was the Coach of the Year
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: last year, and the Giants won so many close games.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: You could argue not necessarily because of luck, which obviously
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: has a big big part in it, but because Brian
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: Dabel put them in a position to win close games
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: that he was a difference maker on the sideline. Simon,
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: do we feel like that is something that is a
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: tangible factor that comes into play when we're determining the
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Giants value? Or is there automatic regression No matter how
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: good of a coach you are.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: I would say, ze On Mack regression when you just
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: don't have the talent there where in your first year
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: as a coach, you can sneak up on people because
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: not a lot of people know what your your team's
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: gonna be running, right, They didn't know what kind of
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: offensive team is going to run. I mean, no one
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: saw how much running Daniel Jones is going to do
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: last year, right, that was a big thing Brian took
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: advantage of. Was was Daniel Jones's legs and getting him
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: out of trouble. And if you go back and watch
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: even on a lot of his passes, it was him
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: getting outside the pocket, right, it was just one of
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: those where he'd have two reads and if those reads
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: weren't there, take off. I mean, he was a great athlete.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: He showed that last year. So you know, looking at
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: this team, the professionals have already taken that position. I
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: mean when I gave out the Giants win total was
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: eight and a half and it was minus one ten.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Now it's only down to seven and a half and
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: it's at plus one hundred. So clearly the purers have
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: taken a position on this team where we just expect
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: regression because they just don't have the talent, like they
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: do have something building there. I mean, if you're a
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Giants fan, how are you not excited about last year?
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Daniel Jones? You guys didn't give him his fifth year option, Like,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: not only did the fans give up on him, the
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: organization gave up on him, and then he proved to
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: them that he can be that guy. Right, he got
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: them to the playoffs last year. They gave him a
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: nice contract. Now they got to really build this thing
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: out out. What's what's Daniel Jones's strength and how do
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: we build a team around those strengths. So to me,
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: we just we expect regression just because last year was
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: such a such a shocking season. I mean the greatest
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: example of this team was that Ravens game. They were
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: down ten in the fourth quarter and they never lost faith.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know they got lucky there. Lamar turned
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: it over twice and that's how they were able to
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: win that game. But still Daniel Jones led those drives
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: down the field for those both those touchdowns for them
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: to win that game in those final minutes. So it's
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: one of those where, yeah, Chad, we we ran our
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: luck rankings all season them in the Vikis were one
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: and two the luckiest teams. So just right there, we
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: expect them to be regressing in the fact that they
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: got so lucky in so many one possession games last year.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: So you know, I won't give out the under seven
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: and a half just because I have an eight. I
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: have a bunch of eight and a half. So I
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: just don't think there's any value there taking the seven
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: and a half because they gross set it like they're
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: a team that seven, eight, nine wins. That's exactly where
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: most of us have them right. They're right in that
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: area of they're gonna steal some games. They're just a
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: team that's gonna be gritty, They're gonna they're gonna never
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: really give up, and they.
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: Have great coaching.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: So it's always tough to fade those teams. You always
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: want the best of them are when you do, so
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: I hate not taking aside, but I wouldn't take an
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: over under on this one. If you already missed eight
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: and a half, there's just no value on this line
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: for you to take.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: Isn't it an interesting though, that we're having a hard
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: time giving up on the Giants just because of Brian Dabo.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: Like for some reason, he what he did last year,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: everybody believed that he was he was really really good
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: at this job, do you know what I mean? And
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: I think also we saw some of it, like the
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: way the Bills regressed a little bit. Part of it
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: was because Josh Allen's injury, but also Brian dabol was
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: so good at managing that Bill's offense with Josh Allen.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: And it's interesting because the Vikings were just as lucky
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: last year with so many one score wins. Nobody is
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: looking at the Vikings and saying, oh yeah, Kevin O'Connell
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: coached them to those one score wins. Everyone's looking to
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: the Giants and saying, oh yeah, Brian Dabill coach them
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: to those one score wins. And that's why we're having
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: a harder time pulling the trigger on thinking this is
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: a team that could create based on their talent, which
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: is fascinating to me. Why don't we Why don't we
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: say that about Kevin O'Connell.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: A few different reasons. If you go back and watch
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: how they won, it's just a big difference. Like a
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: lot of stuff that happened last year, the Vikings honestly
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: was on Kirk. Kirk was the only making those big
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: plays where I don't think it was all Daniel Jones
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: for this Giants team. It was really it was really
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: based on the offense where Kirk was. I could think
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: of three wins off the top of my head where
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: it was just like where's Jefferson. Let me close my
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: eyes and throw it downfield to him, and it worked
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: out for almost every time. So that's definitely one of
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: those main differences.
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: All Right.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: The last team we want to talk about the Washington
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: Commanders new ownership. Sam Howell is going to be starting
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: QB Riverboat Ron, deciding to go with the second year
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: player from North Carolina. The over is at six and
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: a half plus one hundred. The under is minus one
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: twenty five. They are plus twelve hundred to win the division.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Is this the team Ross Tucker with one of the
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: best defensive lines in the NFL? Is this the team
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: that will continue the trend that eighteen of the past
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: twenty years the team has gone from worse to first
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: in their division.
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: Absolutely not.
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: There is no way in hell the Commanders are winning.
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: The NFC East.
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: Cut the audio, cut the video. If the Commanders win
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: the NFC East, I don't even.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: Know what I'll do.
• 40:36
  Speaker 5: I'm not gonna say something on the show. I'll think
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: about it, but I'll do something crazy.
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: Listen, they gave me a.
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: Little bit of pause with how they looked against Baltimore
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: the other night, and Sam Howe has looked good in
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: the preseason, and that's great. I like when there's more
• 40:53
  Speaker 5: good young quarterbacks, I really do.
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: And I'm glad they have a new owner.
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: Daniel Snyder was just an absolute train wreck and a travesty.
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: But they have a bottom five offensive line in the
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: NFL and they have a quarterback that started one game.
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: Let me just tell you, guys, you know those NFL
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: films videos at the end of the year, when you
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: watched like the Year in Review, the super Bowl video.
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: That's not how the video starts.
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: The video doesn't start with a quarterback with the one
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: start and a bottom five offensive line.
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: It's not happening. I think it's amazing that Riverboat ron.
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: I mean you're talking about Riverboat. You know, new owner.
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: He knows this is make or break year for him
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: and he's going with Sam Howe. How about Eric the
• 41:40
  Speaker 5: Enemy He left a cushy job in Kansas City to come,
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: you know, with the Commanders, with the lame duck coach,
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: a quarterback with one start and a bottom five o line.
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're big free agent additions. Where Nick Gates
• 41:55
  Speaker 5: and Andrew Wiley. I like both those guys because they're
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: not overly talented.
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: They kind of remind me.
• 42:02
  Speaker 5: Of myself, and I'm proud of them forgetting the money
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: that they're getting even though they're not that talented.
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: But it's kind of a problem that they're not that talented.
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: I think, to me, you know, I think they'd probably
• 42:15
  Speaker 5: be lucky to get to seven or eight wins, although
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: it feels like that's what Rivera coaches to Rivera is
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: like that guy. Now to me that it's like if
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: you want, like, if you want seven, eight or nine wins,
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: get Ron Rivera. If you want twelve, thirteen, fourteen wins,
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: don't get Ron Rivera. I think he's a coach that can.
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: It's almost like he's more comfortable exceeding expectations. Still don't
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: understand why he didn't play Sam Hallimore last year. That
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: made no sense, and it really didn't make sense when
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: he put Wentz back in against Cleveland. That was horrendous
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: And I don't like that. Terry McLaurin already has turf toe.
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: It's a bad injury for a wide receiver. I had
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: turf dow. That's an annoying injury, worse for a receiver
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: than it is for o lineman like me. I think
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: the six and a half number is right. You know,
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: how played well enough that it gives me pause to
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: tell people to take the under.
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: But I'm not taking the over either.
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think they'll probably get the seven wins,
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: maybe even eight, and probably more likely that they do
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: that than five or six.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: But that number feels like the right number to me
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: right now. For Washington.
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: You don't want to go into a season with question
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: marks along the offensive line and a quarterback.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: All right, ross listen, well, Simon is giving his answer.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: I'm going to vamp for a second. You have the
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: opportunity right now to think what is my favorite bet
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: in the division? You can choose an over, you can
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: choose an under, you can choose a division future. But
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: I feel like you haven't committed yet to a best bet.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Simon has kind of committed to a best bet. I
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: would put him into a Cowboys camp at plus one
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: eighty unless he's going to come up with something bigger.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: But to your point about the Commander's offensive line, both
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: of their veteran guards are gone, both tackles are leftover.
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: Is that the.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: Bears and the Chiefs did not want. They've got four
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: new starters. This offensive line is in trouble to protect
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: a quarterback who has started one game? Simon, where are
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: we on the Commanders?
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: Unbelievable child. The only team I hate in the NFL
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: are the Cowboys. I spoke nicely about them for about
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: ten minutes, and you said, I kind of and then
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: on the Cowboys. Now I'm coming on the Cowboys.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: Let me say something. You're nicely about the Cowboys to me,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: I know I sent an underlying animosity. So the fact
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: that you went to Cowboys plus waey and eighty to
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: me is a miracle. I just wanted to give you
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: the out to come do something better. If like there's
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: something about the Commanders you're like, oh no, my best
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: bet is definitely going to be under six and a half.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: No, that's as big as I can get. If I
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: say something that nice as that's as much as I
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: can do about the Cowboys. Washington. It kind of feels
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: like the same beat with the Giants, where it's like
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: this ain't it, but it's way better than it's been
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: the last ten to fifteen years.
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: It feels like you're kind of coming out of a
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: dark age if you're a Washington Commanders fan. And I
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: do not think Sam is the answer at quarterback. Yeah,
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: he can play well against backups when teams are running
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: zero defensive scheme against him in the preseason, but he's
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: got major issues. I think teams are going to attack
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: this upcoming regular season, So I am not shocked to
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: see that they have him at six and a half wins,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: just because this division is so tough. I mean, the
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Eagles are really good, Cowboys are really good. Arguably both
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: are top three teams NFC, and then you have a
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: Giants team that's an overachieving team that's just really tough,
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: well coached, and you know, Washington, I still think they
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: are a couple pieces away from being above five hundred team.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: And last year they almost got there, right, they were
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: almost in the playoffs. If they had just beaten the Giants,
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: they probably would have be able to get in at
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: towards the end of the season. But you know, they're
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: just a team that they don't have a winning culture
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: and they haven't really brought in players that have ever
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: won either across the league. It's kind of a team of,
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: you know, of guys that are just trying to find
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: their way at this point. So when I'm looking at
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: this Washington team. I was shocked it was six and
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: a half because I thought, wow, that seems low, and
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: then I was the months have gone on, it's like, no,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: that's a good number, like they could steal a game,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: get lucky here or there, and maybe get the seven
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: or eight wins. But as a better we don't bet
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: on that. We bet on the numbers and what we
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: think is going to happen. And I'm gonna take the
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: under here on a team that it'll be great for them,
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: right if you can show out and have huge moments,
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: that'd be great for them because they just haven't had
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: a quarterback and that's been such a huge issue for
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: this team. I mean, Kirk left what is six seven
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: years ago and they just really haven't found anyone to
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: replace him since he's left. So yeah, for me, Washington,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: I don't care if they made these guys fifteen or
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: twenty to one. I just wouldn't take them to this division.
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: I just there's not scenario where I see them being
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: better than the Cowboys are better than the Eagles, So
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: for divisionalides, I wouldn't touch it. And if I'm gonna
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: take an under, it's gonna be on the Eagles, and
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be on Washington. I think both these teams
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: have good value towards the under this upcoming season.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: All right, Ross, I'm giving you a chance. Well, Simon
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: was talking, give me one best bet.
• 47:37
  Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I think if I had to make
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: one right now, I think I might be the Cowboys over.
• 47:44
  Speaker 5: I mean, they've been a pretty consistent twelve win team here.
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: I think they're better than they were last year. The
• 47:52
  Speaker 5: only thing I think that can screw it up. I
• 47:55
  Speaker 5: don't think Dak's gonna lead the NFL in interceptions again.
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: That can screw it up is injuries to the O line,
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: which is a possibility. But even if they have interested
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: to O line, they can put somebody a guard, bump
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: Tyler Smith out to tackle, and Mike McCarthy and we'll see,
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: because it's gonna be real bad if Mike McCarthy is
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: the thing that holds this team back, real bad. But
• 48:18
  Speaker 5: you know what, maybe he learned from Kellen Moore, maybe
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: he learned from his time off.
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: So I think the Cowboys is gonna be very good.
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: I think the Cowboys are right there with the Eagles
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: and the Niners at the top of the NFC. I'll
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: go over ten and a half with the Cowboys as
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: my best bet for the NFC.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: All right, we're taking a flyer. We're going over ten
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: and a half. Find an outline for over ten and
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: a half. Listen, we also like the Cowboys plus one eighty.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: The Eagles are the class of this division and probably
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: the class of the conference. But the chances that they're
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: going to repeat in this division, given the history, given
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: how perfect they've given their injury luck, the Cowboys of
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: the value of plus one eighty. Thank you to Ross Tucker,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: friend of the pod, host of the Ross Tucker Football
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: Podcast the Ross Tucker Podcast Network. Find him at Ross
• 49:11
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