Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | St. Jude Championship | 8/05/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: All systems going clear the lift.
- 0:36Speaker 2: What's up everyone? Tyler Tambaline here aka TOTEG and Tambo
- 0:39Speaker 2: back for another edition of the PGA Show. We got
- 0:42Speaker 2: the PGA into the playoffs. Now we're rounding up the season.
- 0:45Speaker 2: Special guest here with me, my man, Alex Blickel from
- 0:48Speaker 2: FTN got his own thing going on now a little
- 0:50Speaker 2: bit on the side too. We'll talk about what he's doing.
- 0:52Speaker 2: Bring Alex in here in a second. But before we do, Alex,
- 0:55Speaker 2: do you know what day today is? It is August fifth,
- 0:58Speaker 2: and somebody said it said, this is like Christmas Eve,
- 1:01Speaker 2: It's like ship missive. So you guys know the teasers
- 1:03Speaker 2: today we'll have you cover. But Alex, always good to
- 1:05Speaker 2: be back with you, man. People always love the shows
- 1:08Speaker 2: more breaking them down. I love the aspect that you've
- 1:09Speaker 2: actually played golf before at a high level, like just
- 1:12Speaker 2: even recently you're in some stuff trying to get after
- 1:14Speaker 2: a US Open and whatnot, but you're always busy in
- 1:17Speaker 2: the golf streets, in the DFS streets. What's going on,
- 1:19Speaker 2: my man? How you doing?
- 1:20Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm doing really well. Can't wait to do the
- 1:22Speaker 3: show with you again. It's been a while, but yeah,
- 1:24Speaker 3: like you said, I always enjoy doing stuff with you.
- 1:26Speaker 3: And got the Pennsylvania Open coming up in a week,
- 1:29Speaker 3: so right back at the golf streets as well. Yeah,
- 1:31Speaker 3: I love that, Like I always tell the story.
- 1:33Speaker 2: But it was at the first ever, the inaugural the
- 1:35Speaker 2: DFS Open, and you were in the playoff. Man, it
- 1:38Speaker 2: was crazy. It was me and my boy Kenny Kim.
- 1:40Speaker 2: We rolled out. We said, what, you guys aren't going
- 1:42Speaker 2: to watch this. I know it's just a meeting event here,
- 1:44Speaker 2: but I said, we got to go see this. So
- 1:45Speaker 2: we rolled up on the cart, checked it all out.
- 1:47Speaker 2: You were a little bit off, wild off the tee.
- 1:50Speaker 2: On the last hole, you managed to recover well and
- 1:51Speaker 2: gave yourself a shop. But then I think Buddy just
- 1:53Speaker 2: drained the putt. It was like a twelve quarter or something,
- 1:55Speaker 2: and you needed a lot longer than that to recover
- 1:58Speaker 2: versus him, and it didn't quite happen. But you made
- 2:00Speaker 2: a run at it and it was a close call.
- 2:01Speaker 2: But very good golfer in your own right. So we'll
- 2:03Speaker 2: talk about that. Let's uh, let's talk a little bit
- 2:06Speaker 2: about this. It is the FedEx Saint Jude Championship. Sixty
- 2:09Speaker 2: nine golfers nice, No, no, Rory. So we'll talk about that,
- 2:12Speaker 2: but I guess that's the first segue and the talk
- 2:14Speaker 2: of the town right now. So we'll just rift back
- 2:15Speaker 2: and forth a little bit on this. But we talked
- 2:17Speaker 2: a bit pre show just about this playoff situation and
- 2:21Speaker 2: get your two cents on. I know you've got some ideas.
- 2:23Speaker 2: I've talked about it forever. Obviously, the current format is
- 2:25Speaker 2: absolutely horrible, but you know, they can never seem to
- 2:28Speaker 2: change it in a way that ends up working out
- 2:30Speaker 2: for them. And I do think one thing we talked
- 2:32Speaker 2: about pre show for sure is true is they still
- 2:35Speaker 2: spend way too much time talking about the money, which
- 2:37Speaker 2: nobody gives a shit. We know these golfers are rich,
- 2:40Speaker 2: we don't. That's not what we're watching for is to
- 2:42Speaker 2: see how much money. We had the Phil Vers Tiger match.
- 2:44Speaker 2: Remember nine million of fake money, like it's real money,
- 2:48Speaker 2: but it's like they've neither of them. Nine million doesn't
- 2:49Speaker 2: move the needle. It's like ninety bucks. For Phil, it's
- 2:52Speaker 2: like nine million because he needs it, but for Tiger
- 2:55Speaker 2: it was like nine dollars. And yeah, at the end
- 2:57Speaker 2: of the day, nobody cared about that kind of money.
- 3:00Speaker 2: That it was just to get a match on the go.
- 3:02Speaker 2: So what's your thoughts on this playoff format, because we've
- 3:04Speaker 2: seen some interesting ones come out lately. I know we
- 3:06Speaker 2: talked about a pre show.
- 3:08Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think the biggest thing that I
- 3:10Speaker 3: agree with is that we don't care about the money,
- 3:12Speaker 3: and so the tour needs to let go of the
- 3:14Speaker 3: idea that we're ever going to care about the Mexica
- 3:16Speaker 3: Playoffs the way we care about major champions and stuff. Right,
- 3:19Speaker 3: playoffs are about prestige. That's why we care about them
- 3:22Speaker 3: in other sports, and so they need to get rid
- 3:25Speaker 3: of that thought and then move into Okay, well what
- 3:27Speaker 3: still matters at that time of year, And to me,
- 3:29Speaker 3: the big answer is who has status the next year,
- 3:32Speaker 3: who is in the signature events the next year. So
- 3:34Speaker 3: I think they should transition the playoffs to be more
- 3:38Speaker 3: about those players. And so like right now we've cut
- 3:42Speaker 3: down to seventy already and a lot of guys are
- 3:45Speaker 3: now going to be competing for tour guards throughout the fall.
- 3:48Speaker 3: You can have a lot of that drama right here
- 3:51Speaker 3: in these few weeks. So that's the number one thing
- 3:52Speaker 3: I do. And then of course there's a lot of
- 3:54Speaker 3: drama as well. That could go into just who's qualifying
- 3:57Speaker 3: for signature events, and so I would basically have two
- 4:00Speaker 3: simultaneous match play finals going on in the last week,
- 4:04Speaker 3: and everything before that is just figuring out who's in
- 4:07Speaker 3: which bracket, where one bracket is competing for the FedEx
- 4:10Speaker 3: Cup Championship in the winner's bracket, and everyone else is
- 4:13Speaker 3: competing for some level of status. For every single round
- 4:16Speaker 3: in the match play unlocks new levels of exemptions, new
- 4:19Speaker 3: levels of status, things like that. I think that'd be
- 4:22Speaker 3: really compelling viewing going down the stretch, and you'd have
- 4:25Speaker 3: multiple matches going on in the finals, so it's a
- 4:27Speaker 3: little bit better for TV as well. Yeah.
- 4:29Speaker 2: One thing I've always said, and this is like I've
- 4:31Speaker 2: put a big post out of a couple of years
- 4:32Speaker 2: ago about this. It's just like the PGA Tour is
- 4:34Speaker 2: so bad at content. I mean everyone will say, oh,
- 4:37Speaker 2: I just saw today the ratings are up huge, must
- 4:39Speaker 2: be amazing, then sure, but people always confuse that too,
- 4:41Speaker 2: like a business can be doing really well but could
- 4:44Speaker 2: be doing a whole lot better. The PGA Tours ratings
- 4:47Speaker 2: are upright now, that's phenomenal and good stuff for all
- 4:49Speaker 2: of us. But it could be a whole lot more
- 4:51Speaker 2: like it's all what it comes down to on certain things.
- 4:53Speaker 2: And bottom line, just ask you know, one hundred people
- 4:56Speaker 2: around you, ninety of them don't even know what the
- 4:58Speaker 2: FedEx Cup playoffs are or mean, and the ten that
- 5:01Speaker 2: do know don't care about them. To Alex's point of
- 5:03Speaker 2: what he just said, and that's what it comes down to,
- 5:04Speaker 2: they need to do a better job. Everyone said, oh,
- 5:07Speaker 2: Scotty is boring, fine, but he's the best in the world,
- 5:09Speaker 2: and it's totally different. They're trying to compare them to
- 5:11Speaker 2: the Tiger Woods, who transcended the sport and the game
- 5:14Speaker 2: and everything with it with ratings and more people watching it,
- 5:16Speaker 2: getting in the gym, getting in shape, building all these
- 5:18Speaker 2: Scotty shufflers up that are now able to hit these
- 5:21Speaker 2: types of shots and just flush it completely and go
- 5:23Speaker 2: out and crush. But they need to do a better
- 5:24Speaker 2: job of building up their their creator. If you think
- 5:27Speaker 2: of like creator content, it's like build up your people.
- 5:29Speaker 2: Your creators are the golfers, like build them up. Tell
- 5:32Speaker 2: us the story. We don't know who half these guys are,
- 5:34Speaker 2: and when we do hear the story, it's usually off
- 5:36Speaker 2: but over quickly or like the commentator gets fed a
- 5:40Speaker 2: couple of notes. Use this to tell these of these
- 5:43Speaker 2: players anything they can do like that, And then to
- 5:45Speaker 2: Andrews point, Yeah, at least they got rid of the
- 5:47Speaker 2: starting strokes. It's like they had to try to do something,
- 5:49Speaker 2: but that was definitely not it. So hear you on
- 5:52Speaker 2: that shut out the BG littlenecks as Saint Jude Jim
- 5:55Speaker 2: and preseason NFL. What do you got going on right
- 5:59Speaker 2: now in the NFL streets? Getting fired up for that
- 6:00Speaker 2: to come back? I know NFL it's around the corner.
- 6:02Speaker 2: So before we hop into breaking this down, give me
- 6:04Speaker 2: your thoughts on the NFL coming back and what you
- 6:06Speaker 2: got going on there.
- 6:07Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's so exciting this time of year,
- 6:11Speaker 3: both taking a look at Week one for the DFS streets,
- 6:14Speaker 3: but then also love best fall. And you know, I
- 6:17Speaker 3: don't do a whole lot of fantasy football, so when
- 6:20Speaker 3: I actually have fantasy football drafts, like with friends with family,
- 6:23Speaker 3: I'm just using our rankings at FT and Fantasy and
- 6:25Speaker 3: the best rankings in the industry. So anyone out there
- 6:28Speaker 3: who just wants fantasy football rankings and really really good ones,
- 6:31Speaker 3: check out Ftnfantasy dot Com. You can use promo code
- 6:34Speaker 3: blick for ten percent off there.
- 6:36Speaker 2: Yeah, I appreciate it. Man, I'm gonna pull some stuff
- 6:38Speaker 2: up to while I'm just grabbing this quickly. Maybe talk
- 6:41Speaker 2: a little bit about how you see this event playing
- 6:43Speaker 2: out with you know this the course, what you know
- 6:45Speaker 2: about it, you know where it's at, It's played the
- 6:47Speaker 2: same place. I've got to be here before. I know
- 6:48Speaker 2: Mayo is there this week. There is no Mayo show
- 6:50Speaker 2: with me this week. I won't be on it with him.
- 6:53Speaker 2: So he's down in Memphis. I know that should be
- 6:54Speaker 2: a good time. I've been there, got to be there
- 6:56Speaker 2: the year Willie Z got the job done. That was
- 6:58Speaker 2: incredible going into that playoff. If I remember running around
- 7:01Speaker 2: from hole to hole to get that thing out of
- 7:02Speaker 2: the way and him having the ball just sit up
- 7:05Speaker 2: on the lip of the rock on that little island
- 7:06Speaker 2: and figure it out and go back to the drop
- 7:08Speaker 2: zone and then still figure it out. So tell me
- 7:11Speaker 2: what you know, and tell the people what you know
- 7:12Speaker 2: about this course and just what your overall thoughts are
- 7:14Speaker 2: on the start things off here.
- 7:16Speaker 3: Yeah, unfortunately I do not like this golf course. It's
- 7:19Speaker 3: always more fun to talk about a great golf course
- 7:22Speaker 3: at one that I think is just like really well designed.
- 7:24Speaker 3: This is not bad and it shows up in the
- 7:26Speaker 3: course of vent model where every single aspect of golf
- 7:30Speaker 3: driving distance, driving accuracy, and that's using our proprietary strokes
- 7:34Speaker 3: gain driving accuracy metric that we have at FTN, approach,
- 7:37Speaker 3: play and putting are all less predictive here than usual.
- 7:40Speaker 3: Around the green place pretty much right on where it
- 7:43Speaker 3: usually is. And this is not what you expect to
- 7:45Speaker 3: find on a golf course with as much water as this.
- 7:48Speaker 3: When you think of the other like water heavy courses
- 7:50Speaker 3: PJ National, TBC, Sawgrass, the three them open, we get
- 7:55Speaker 3: typically a really high signal on our stroke skin driving
- 7:59Speaker 3: accuracy because course management it becomes a big part of that.
- 8:02Speaker 3: And then you also see the same on around the
- 8:04Speaker 3: green play because again around the green play is a
- 8:07Speaker 3: lot about course management, missing in the right spot, making
- 8:09Speaker 3: sure you're not missing in water, but you're missing with
- 8:12Speaker 3: green to work with easy opportunities for up and downs,
- 8:15Speaker 3: safe off of the team. That's where we get that
- 8:17Speaker 3: strops cane driving accuracy signal. A lot of the time
- 8:20Speaker 3: we just don't get that here. And I think a
- 8:21Speaker 3: big reason for that is most of the time, avoiding
- 8:25Speaker 3: water is about skill, it's about managing your misses, and
- 8:27Speaker 3: here I think it's a little bit more about luck.
- 8:30Speaker 3: And that is just I think a sign of a
- 8:33Speaker 3: not very well designed golfers.
- 8:37Speaker 2: Yeah, so I agree, and you know you know more
- 8:40Speaker 2: about that angle of it than I do. But when
- 8:41Speaker 2: you're talking about applying that to DFS, I'll give you
- 8:44Speaker 2: a quick example. I mean, I just did this a
- 8:45Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago when I talked about it at
- 8:47Speaker 2: what was the event three? I'm open is the best
- 8:50Speaker 2: one for this, Like, it's hilarious. It's the week after
- 8:52Speaker 2: a major, so I'm just from what we always do
- 8:54Speaker 2: on the show's DFS perspective. The week after a major,
- 8:57Speaker 2: people are already laser lazy or have the hangover. Then
- 9:00Speaker 2: you've got everybody thinking they know, like, oh, I'll just
- 9:02Speaker 2: trust these guys, but the same people are speaking on
- 9:04Speaker 2: the other side of their mouths in but this course
- 9:06Speaker 2: high variance, lots of water. It's like, then, why are
- 9:09Speaker 2: you just jamming every dude like you know exactly who
- 9:11Speaker 2: it's going to be, Like, you can just play into that.
- 9:13Speaker 2: It was a complete massacre. I think it was like
- 9:15Speaker 2: a three or four percent sixty sixth rate. So with
- 9:18Speaker 2: what you just said, everything you talked about, what's the
- 9:21Speaker 2: best way or how are you going about applying that
- 9:23Speaker 2: from a DFS perspective with a shortened field, everything that's
- 9:27Speaker 2: on the line, even if it's not the best format
- 9:29Speaker 2: right now, but all that consideration, sixty nine golfers thirteen
- 9:32Speaker 2: case Scottie, you know a bunch of options in the
- 9:35Speaker 2: six k's that are pretty good golfers on paper at least,
- 9:38Speaker 2: including the very disrespected sixty eight hundred dollars sung JM,
- 9:42Speaker 2: who actually played much better last week and is still
- 9:45Speaker 2: in the top thirty I believe for the FedEx Cup playoffs.
- 9:47Speaker 2: So yeah, give me your thoughts on all of that
- 9:49Speaker 2: and more. What do you got? Yeah?
- 9:51Speaker 3: So, I mean, what it does is it gives us
- 9:52Speaker 3: license to be even more contrariant than usual because it's
- 9:55Speaker 3: bringing the projections of the best players down towards the
- 9:59Speaker 3: projections the worst players. And we already would have a
- 10:02Speaker 3: smaller gap than usual because this is such a strong field,
- 10:06Speaker 3: and now of the course is like also doing that.
- 10:08Speaker 3: So the difference between Scotty Scotty's projection and the worst
- 10:13Speaker 3: players projecting in this field is like a stroke and
- 10:15Speaker 3: a half smaller, maybe even more than that than what
- 10:19Speaker 3: we typically see when Scotty's in the field. So again,
- 10:22Speaker 3: it just brings everyone together. I think it becomes really
- 10:25Speaker 3: pronounced in the outright market where now, like the sweet
- 10:28Speaker 3: spot to me is that let's say forty to one
- 10:30Speaker 3: hundred to one range, like those guys have a much
- 10:32Speaker 3: better chance of winning this week than they usually do
- 10:35Speaker 3: and that's not priced into the market fully, But on
- 10:39Speaker 3: the DFS side, like I said, it just gives us
- 10:41Speaker 3: license to be even more contrarian than usual. And this
- 10:44Speaker 3: is another spot where just like the three and Open,
- 10:46Speaker 3: it's not just this year that we saw a low
- 10:48Speaker 3: six or six for the three and Open, like that's
- 10:50Speaker 3: always been the case. And yeah, we don't have cuts here,
- 10:53Speaker 3: so it's not like we're going to see that, but
- 10:55Speaker 3: it just means more of the chalk is going to
- 10:58Speaker 3: end up fortieth fiftieth than than what we typically see.
- 11:01Speaker 3: So licenses being working training, which is fun, like that's
- 11:06Speaker 3: the right side of this courseman model and just this
- 11:09Speaker 3: event as a whole. But the downside is it's just
- 11:10Speaker 3: not they could have a golf course and it's not
- 11:12Speaker 3: a very fun viewing golf course either.
- 11:14Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all gonna depend and then it all depends
- 11:16Speaker 2: on how it shakes out, because I think people a
- 11:17Speaker 2: lot of people will still go with the same guys
- 11:19Speaker 2: that you see. And when we get to the tiers
- 11:21Speaker 2: and going through it, I mean you're gonna see Aaron
- 11:23Speaker 2: Raye is eighty three hundred. You know, Scotty very affordable
- 11:26Speaker 2: and easy to fit. So that's gonna lead to more
- 11:28Speaker 2: Scotty at the top, Guys like Xander jt hen like
- 11:31Speaker 2: Henley at ten ten k, even the fact that they
- 11:33Speaker 2: put him, I would say best by pricing when they're
- 11:35Speaker 2: ninety Tommy Fleetwood is best by pricing. He's ninety nine hundred,
- 11:39Speaker 2: just below ten k. Your TV's nine to ninety nine,
- 11:41Speaker 2: not one thousand. Russell Henley just stands out like a
- 11:44Speaker 2: sore thumb to people of like, oh, how could you
- 11:45Speaker 2: play that guy at ten k when Scotty's three k more?
- 11:48Speaker 2: And the difference between Hedeki at eighty eight and then
- 11:52Speaker 2: you go down to the bottom, it's like, I mean,
- 11:53Speaker 2: you can pick up two grand quickly, if not, you know,
- 11:55Speaker 2: three grand across the board, So that Scotty situation will
- 11:58Speaker 2: be the biggest one that's talked about. But it's easy
- 12:00Speaker 2: to build Scotty and we'll get to that in a second.
- 12:03Speaker 2: Note says, just when you thought I was done, he
- 12:05Speaker 2: pulls you right back in. Certainly think about that. Is
- 12:07Speaker 2: there any other no cut event tips that you have?
- 12:09Speaker 2: I mean, you talk about being able to be more
- 12:11Speaker 2: contraying because of the other factors. I think one thing
- 12:13Speaker 2: about not every no cut event to me, I'll let
- 12:16Speaker 2: y'all go first and let you take over. Is not
- 12:18Speaker 2: every no cut event is the same. And what I
- 12:19Speaker 2: mean by that is beyond the obvious. It's true is
- 12:22Speaker 2: that this is also a playoff event where you do
- 12:25Speaker 2: know all of those golfers in the six k range
- 12:28Speaker 2: and below, and sometimes it no cuts. That's not the
- 12:30Speaker 2: case here. You can make a case for all of
- 12:33Speaker 2: those guys down below. So I mean, not only can
- 12:35Speaker 2: you get more contrarian, but to your point, to your
- 12:37Speaker 2: point before, but you can also get a little bit
- 12:39Speaker 2: more aggressive because there is enough of a pool down
- 12:42Speaker 2: low of those guys that, like you said, the projection
- 12:44Speaker 2: lines up the fact that this is the type of
- 12:45Speaker 2: course you're saying, like your point of forty to one
- 12:48Speaker 2: to one hundred to one odds sweet spot. A lot
- 12:50Speaker 2: of those golfers are priced in the seven k or
- 12:52Speaker 2: low or high low seven high six is range. You
- 12:56Speaker 2: could still get to a bunch of those guys and
- 12:57Speaker 2: build a little bit differently for this type of what's
- 13:00Speaker 2: your thoughts on no cut events and how you handle them?
- 13:02Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the only other thing I've add I
- 13:04Speaker 3: agree with all that. The only other thing I'll add
- 13:06Speaker 3: there is you can focus a little bit more too
- 13:08Speaker 3: on guys who just make a ton of birdies. And
- 13:10Speaker 3: a lot of those guys are the guys who can
- 13:12Speaker 3: make a triple at any point in time, Cam Young,
- 13:15Speaker 3: Jake Knapp, Wyndam Clark, guys like that. But you don't
- 13:19Speaker 3: really care about that triple this week because if it happens,
- 13:21Speaker 3: like yeah, it's gonna hurt his eventual you know, finishing
- 13:25Speaker 3: position bonuses. But you don't have the miscuttory about when
- 13:28Speaker 3: that happens, and they're going to make up for it
- 13:30Speaker 3: by making some birdies in the meantime.
- 13:32Speaker 2: Yeah, And people always write guys off the minute they
- 13:34Speaker 2: start out like two over or three over, like oh
- 13:37Speaker 2: knew he was a bad play this week. Remember they
- 13:39Speaker 2: don't always bounce back, but if they do, there's gonna
- 13:41Speaker 2: be a lot more scoring to go with it, because
- 13:43Speaker 2: to get back to the good eventual finish, there had
- 13:45Speaker 2: to be a lot of scoring to make that happen.
- 13:47Speaker 2: I think about Xander that year at the Memorial. He
- 13:49Speaker 2: shot eight over in round one and everyone wrote him off.
- 13:52Speaker 2: He came back and finished like twenty first place and
- 13:54Speaker 2: it didn't fully pay off. But to people that through
- 13:57Speaker 2: their lineups in the garbage on day one without actually
- 13:59Speaker 2: doing so, because you can't, everyone would like to you
- 14:01Speaker 2: on the app sometimes get rid of them. Man, what
- 14:03Speaker 2: it would be like the cash showed button of all time?
- 14:05Speaker 2: Like can you imagine people that wrote those off and
- 14:07Speaker 2: then all of the scoring that went into Xander coming back.
- 14:10Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of people that would just
- 14:11Speaker 2: pay to get it off the screen and draftings could
- 14:13Speaker 2: just eliminate them from the pool or whatever. But that's
- 14:16Speaker 2: a couple thoughts. At least Scooter called it that was
- 14:18Speaker 2: the year Willie Z and that was at like the
- 14:21Speaker 2: the hole was sep On I think when they were
- 14:23Speaker 2: I think they were side by side at that point,
- 14:24Speaker 2: but that was like either the first playoff hole or
- 14:26Speaker 2: the last hole of the tournament where it was like
- 14:28Speaker 2: just to just to prove that he can get into
- 14:30Speaker 2: a playoff or prove that he can make it in
- 14:32Speaker 2: a playoff. That wasn't the actual finale of the tournament.
- 14:35Speaker 2: He was so fired up kicking things off that it
- 14:37Speaker 2: was just like, no chance he was going to lose
- 14:39Speaker 2: after that in my mind. Mind you, it did look
- 14:41Speaker 2: like a couple of different shots after that. I was like, Oh,
- 14:43Speaker 2: he's definitely losing now. That was so bad When it
- 14:45Speaker 2: was up against the rocks and I thought he was
- 14:47Speaker 2: gonna hit it, I was like, that is not going
- 14:49Speaker 2: to end well, you know it's tucked against it, it's
- 14:51Speaker 2: just going to fall back into the water. And then
- 14:53Speaker 2: the guy that did the like the broadcast type deal
- 14:57Speaker 2: where the next day came back and did the shot
- 14:59Speaker 2: just to see what would have happened, like show it off.
- 15:01Speaker 2: It went immediately back into the water. So definitely think
- 15:04Speaker 2: that's a good call.
- 15:06Speaker 3: He would have had to try that shot if Seth
- 15:08Speaker 3: hadn't hit it into the water right after. Yes, would
- 15:10Speaker 3: have been really interesting to see because, like you said,
- 15:13Speaker 3: I don't think that would have been.
- 15:14Speaker 2: Possible that that's the tricky part, but that that's why
- 15:17Speaker 2: these playoffs are so fun, and that that's the one
- 15:19Speaker 2: thing about this event. If it gets into a playoff,
- 15:21Speaker 2: I know that year I had a ton of fun.
- 15:22Speaker 2: It wasn't just the Willie z outright, it was the
- 15:25Speaker 2: course doesn't really again to me at least, especially as
- 15:28Speaker 2: it doesn't matter as much alex as when you get
- 15:31Speaker 2: to a spot like once you're in that playoff and
- 15:32Speaker 2: you got everything riding on the line, even if you
- 15:34Speaker 2: didn't have the outright, so the bet or whatever it
- 15:37Speaker 2: might be, it's fine once it's in a playoff because
- 15:39Speaker 2: of the drama. To your point earlier, on the playoffs,
- 15:42Speaker 2: you don't worry about what the Stanley Cup final bonuses
- 15:45Speaker 2: are for a hockey player. You don't worry about what
- 15:47Speaker 2: the bonus is for an NFL team when they make
- 15:49Speaker 2: it to the super Bowl. All you give is shit
- 15:51Speaker 2: about is who wins the super Bowl, your fandom, different
- 15:54Speaker 2: things that go into it, All these other factors, bets, gambling,
- 15:57Speaker 2: whatever it might be. There's so many other angles, and
- 15:59Speaker 2: none of it revolves around how much money someone is
- 16:02Speaker 2: about to make the following contract season or how much
- 16:05Speaker 2: money they get just because they made it with their
- 16:07Speaker 2: bonus and stuff like that. The incentives only come to
- 16:09Speaker 2: play in week seventeen and eighteen when everyone thinks those matters.
- 16:12Speaker 2: So that's all I got to say about that.
- 16:15Speaker 3: Well, speaking of the of playoffs, like if you had
- 16:19Speaker 3: this design where the top let's say thirty two ended
- 16:23Speaker 3: up in a match play bracket for the final and
- 16:26Speaker 3: the next sixty four run a match play bracket just
- 16:28Speaker 3: for status and stuff like, imagine the drama the second
- 16:32Speaker 3: playoff week where it ends up with a five for
- 16:35Speaker 3: one to see who gets into that championship bracket they
- 16:38Speaker 3: lock in their status and their exemption to signature events,
- 16:40Speaker 3: things like that. That'd be awesome to watch, But we
- 16:43Speaker 3: don't get any of that with the current format. So
- 16:46Speaker 3: it's just a huge missed opportunity of the way they
- 16:48Speaker 3: have the playoffs set up right now.
- 16:50Speaker 2: Yeah, that was definitely, you know, one of the biggest
- 16:52Speaker 2: factors I said, do you pre show too? Like that
- 16:55Speaker 2: is part of like the some of the ideas that
- 16:57Speaker 2: got thrown out there this week where the points don't matter,
- 17:00Speaker 2: just like so and so move on. If you're not
- 17:01Speaker 2: good enough to get in the top fifty of the
- 17:03Speaker 2: top seventy probably shouldn't be moving on anyway. Yes, they
- 17:06Speaker 2: could lose sponsors and the tournament could lose Scotti Scheffler
- 17:09Speaker 2: if he's some out a bad week, but he comes
- 17:11Speaker 2: top ten percent ninety one percent of the time, if
- 17:13Speaker 2: he doesn't pull the trigger, that's kind of like a
- 17:15Speaker 2: team failing in the first round or maybe these still
- 17:18Speaker 2: involved by weeks the top ten are protected no matter what,
- 17:22Speaker 2: just in case until week two. But even then week
- 17:24Speaker 2: two you got to pull the trigger, you got to
- 17:26Speaker 2: come through. And you know, I know it's not even
- 17:28Speaker 2: close to the same because there's no sponsors or people
- 17:30Speaker 2: that care, all these different factors. But in like the
- 17:32Speaker 2: PGA Live Final, we just had, like there's three rounds.
- 17:35Speaker 2: The tons of the top players. A Fanta Sin, one
- 17:38Speaker 2: of the best in the world, had fifteen entries going
- 17:41Speaker 2: into the championship. He ended up getting two through to
- 17:45Speaker 2: round two and zero into the final. It's unfortunate, but
- 17:49Speaker 2: it's the way it goes sometimes him. In previous year
- 17:50Speaker 2: it was I think it was Vasa, someone had fifteen
- 17:53Speaker 2: and got all them through and then the next year
- 17:56Speaker 2: he got none of them through or something like just
- 17:57Speaker 2: playing the same type of let there's a lot of
- 17:58Speaker 2: strategy to it. There's a lot that goes into it,
- 18:00Speaker 2: so I guess that's kind of the play. But hey,
- 18:03Speaker 2: I didn't talk to you about this pre show. I
- 18:05Speaker 2: will talk to you about a post show because it
- 18:07Speaker 2: goes live tomorrow anyway, But we're certainly excited for this.
- 18:10Speaker 2: This is what I'm coining as the biggest announcement I
- 18:12Speaker 2: know in our history. A lot of people say this,
- 18:15Speaker 2: a lot of people talk about it. We've had big announcements,
- 18:17Speaker 2: the partnership with Sabersim rest in peace to our guy
- 18:20Speaker 2: degenerate seventy five James. When we partnered with DJN seventy five,
- 18:23Speaker 2: that's a different style of partnership, nobody. He's calmed the
- 18:26Speaker 2: one to one for a reason, true goat. There's nothing
- 18:28Speaker 2: you can do to make up for that. But that
- 18:30Speaker 2: was a merger underneath one brand where we were. You know,
- 18:33Speaker 2: it wasn't a costly thing for us. It was like
- 18:36Speaker 2: it made perfect sense for his members, for our members,
- 18:38Speaker 2: for him and for us, and we love him and
- 18:40Speaker 2: it all made sense together. This is a huge spend.
- 18:43Speaker 2: I'm curious in the comments those watching live and if
- 18:46Speaker 2: you're not watching live, put it in actual comments. But
- 18:48Speaker 2: for the YouTube chat we've already posted, there's clearly a
- 18:51Speaker 2: golden ticket there. It is a golden shipp it. We're
- 18:54Speaker 2: given some bigger teasers away today because they're one day away.
- 18:56Speaker 2: There's there's gonna be golden shipp it's what do you
- 19:00Speaker 2: think the grand prize is for this tournament? And throw
- 19:04Speaker 2: your thoughts in there. Let us know what you think
- 19:05Speaker 2: this is gonna because it's gonna be absolutely massive. We're
- 19:07Speaker 2: certainly excited for this. It involves being a ship at
- 19:10Speaker 2: nation member, but we're gonna make it more than worth
- 19:12Speaker 2: your while. If you guys haven't checked it out, go
- 19:15Speaker 2: to ship at games dot com. Just put your email
- 19:17Speaker 2: in subscribe. It'll get you in so that you're the
- 19:20Speaker 2: first to know. And then tomorrow here back on this
- 19:23Speaker 2: channel myself and Hoopster even from vacation from the streets,
- 19:26Speaker 2: he's coming back for this. We are going to be
- 19:28Speaker 2: doing these ship at Games Live launch show at one
- 19:31Speaker 2: pm Eastern sharp, so be there. Let us know if
- 19:34Speaker 2: you have anything else in the chat, I'll pull it
- 19:36Speaker 2: up as we go along. I'm gonna go back here
- 19:38Speaker 2: with my man Alex and Alex let's get into this
- 19:42Speaker 2: first tier here, Like I said earlier with ten Kin above,
- 19:46Speaker 2: we've got Henley up to Scheffler and Henley I think
- 19:51Speaker 2: just stand. I mean, I guess people probably don't want
- 19:53Speaker 2: to play Zander or JT either, But what are your
- 19:55Speaker 2: thoughts on this upper level and how high with ownership
- 19:58Speaker 2: do you think we see Scotty get this week? It's
- 20:00Speaker 2: very easy to get him into these lineups, for sure.
- 20:02Speaker 3: It's so easy to get him in lineups. I think
- 20:05Speaker 3: we probably see thirty five ish percent in mmy and
- 20:10Speaker 3: it wouldn't surprise me to see forty in single entries.
- 20:13Speaker 3: Wouldn't it surprise me to see fifty in single entries? Honestly,
- 20:16Speaker 3: just because of how easy it is to get him.
- 20:19Speaker 3: I mean, like you can kind of call it a
- 20:21Speaker 3: price decrease from where we've seen him in majors, but
- 20:23Speaker 3: we don't have the five thousand dollars price range, so
- 20:27Speaker 3: it's kind of like the same price. Except to your point,
- 20:30Speaker 3: all of the bottom guys are like actual good culpers now.
- 20:35Speaker 3: So like if you're playing you know, Van Royan or
- 20:39Speaker 3: Schmid or Hughes pot Geter, like you're still playing somebody
- 20:42Speaker 3: that you have some kind of expectation for that they're
- 20:45Speaker 3: going to play well and they can't miss the cut,
- 20:48Speaker 3: so it's just it's so easy to get Scotty this week.
- 20:52Speaker 3: I do, however, think that Shopley will also get some ownership.
- 20:56Speaker 3: I think the guys who are going to fall through
- 20:57Speaker 3: the cracks are JT like you said, and I think
- 21:00Speaker 3: Henley could end up really low owned because I think
- 21:03Speaker 3: most people kind of view Henley Tommy Fitzpatrick as kind
- 21:07Speaker 3: of the same player, and Fitzpatrick is the hot commodity
- 21:10Speaker 3: of the three right now. He's played more recently, he's
- 21:13Speaker 3: playing really well, so I think he's going to soak
- 21:15Speaker 3: up some ownership that Henley deserves. And like the point
- 21:20Speaker 3: that you always make about pricing, it really does matter
- 21:22Speaker 3: psychologically clicking somebody with a nine for their name instead
- 21:26Speaker 3: of a ten, it really does affect where people are clicking.
- 21:29Speaker 3: So I think Henley could really sluff at the cracks
- 21:31Speaker 3: in single lectries, which would make me very very interesting.
- 21:34Speaker 2: Now I don't have it upgrade in front of me
- 21:36Speaker 2: of the events that Henley played and had these results,
- 21:39Speaker 2: but obviously just looking like the tenth, the fifth, the second,
- 21:42Speaker 2: the tenth, they are very similar results to Fitzpatrick's eight, four,
- 21:46Speaker 2: fourth and eight, like they're almost the same, but there's
- 21:48Speaker 2: a three hundred dollars price gap there. The projections early
- 21:51Speaker 2: like Matt Fitzpatrick better, he's got history here, that's a
- 21:54Speaker 2: little bit better. But Henley still had a sixth he
- 21:56Speaker 2: or two years ago. So, like, I mean, it is
- 21:59Speaker 2: interesting when you see that the psychological thing is for
- 22:01Speaker 2: sure a real thing. I think people sometimes forget that.
- 22:03Speaker 2: And if it ends up being a Fitzpatrick's just way
- 22:05Speaker 2: higher owned. I always like paying up for probability, even
- 22:08Speaker 2: if and in the fact that even if it is
- 22:10Speaker 2: only three hundred dollars, well, there could be a massive
- 22:12Speaker 2: ownership discount. And they're not that different. It's not like
- 22:15Speaker 2: Henley plays all the scrub events or something like that.
- 22:17Speaker 2: He's still playing in these top tier events. So to me,
- 22:20Speaker 2: that's interesting. I always have this like fear in the
- 22:22Speaker 2: back of my mind though that so it's a good example.
- 22:26Speaker 2: Cam Young last week we didn't spend time, we don't
- 22:28Speaker 2: do recaps on this show, but I just say, like,
- 22:30Speaker 2: you know, obviously he gets the win. It's his first win,
- 22:33Speaker 2: and it's a runaway. It's like Michael Kim, it was
- 22:35Speaker 2: the Michael Kim two point zero at the John Deere
- 22:37Speaker 2: that year. It's like, we always knew this guy had
- 22:38Speaker 2: this in his bag. Where was it? Well, there's just
- 22:41Speaker 2: one tournament he gets hot and turns off with Cam Young,
- 22:43Speaker 2: it was kind of the opposite. He turned it on
- 22:44Speaker 2: a bunch. He just never closed the door. And you
- 22:46Speaker 2: and I last time, I don't have to rehash it,
- 22:48Speaker 2: but had a really good conversation around closers and people's
- 22:51Speaker 2: perception of them and all this. That and the other
- 22:52Speaker 2: Scott He's considered the ultimate closer because he always gets
- 22:55Speaker 2: the job done after the fifty four hole lead. Certainly
- 22:58Speaker 2: is something to that, but it also just if you're
- 23:00Speaker 2: one of the best at what you do and your
- 23:02Speaker 2: strokes gained are like that, you're the math is mathing.
- 23:05Speaker 2: It's it's going in your favorite as well as long
- 23:06Speaker 2: as your mentals can stay in check with your math,
- 23:08Speaker 2: and he obviously does a really good job of that.
- 23:10Speaker 2: But the interesting part here is I could just see
- 23:14Speaker 2: where when Fleetwood wins, it is gonna be like the
- 23:16Speaker 2: Willisy coming out party of something like that, Like you
- 23:20Speaker 2: could see it happen here, and I know we're already
- 23:22Speaker 2: skipping into the nine K range. But the obvious up
- 23:24Speaker 2: top is you could play Scheffler in pretty much any lineup.
- 23:27Speaker 2: Doesn't matter that there's not a five K because it's
- 23:30Speaker 2: that the fact that there's sixty nine golfers and a
- 23:32Speaker 2: bunch of them in the sixth k real dudes or
- 23:33Speaker 2: low sevens. But what's your thoughts on the nine K range?
- 23:37Speaker 2: Because you hit on Fitzpatrick, I compared him to Henley
- 23:39Speaker 2: Fleetwood squeezed right in between. So I'm curious your thoughts
- 23:42Speaker 2: on Fleetwood and then other guys within this range. A
- 23:45Speaker 2: lot of talk by the way around Patrick Cantley right now,
- 23:47Speaker 2: people just trying to throw them off the Ryder Cup team.
- 23:50Speaker 2: I don't know if you have thoughts there, but I'm just
- 23:51Speaker 2: curious your thoughts on this nine K range and some
- 23:53Speaker 2: of the add ons.
- 23:54Speaker 3: I'll save Ryder Cup discussion for if we have some
- 23:57Speaker 3: time at the end, because I think the first to
- 24:00Speaker 3: make about Fitzpatrick and Henley is Henley has played once
- 24:03Speaker 3: since the Travelers. It was at the Open Championship, So
- 24:06Speaker 3: in that same time span, Fitzpatrick has three additional top
- 24:11Speaker 3: tens at the Rocket, at the Scottish and at the
- 24:14Speaker 3: windhom In addition to his TEA four at the Open Championship.
- 24:16Speaker 3: So that's why I think Fitzpatrick is going to soak
- 24:18Speaker 3: up a lot of that ownerships because we haven't seen
- 24:20Speaker 3: Henley as much. But Henley is obviously in spectacular form
- 24:23Speaker 3: as well. I don't see a ton of ownership throughout
- 24:27Speaker 3: the rest of the nine k's Oberg has been like
- 24:32Speaker 3: just not the same golfer this year. He's shown some flashes,
- 24:35Speaker 3: but really just hasn't been the same guy as he
- 24:37Speaker 3: was a year ago. And I think people are still
- 24:40Speaker 3: treating him, at least like in the outright market as
- 24:43Speaker 3: the guy we think he can be and not the
- 24:45Speaker 3: guy that he currently is. So I just haven't had
- 24:47Speaker 3: a ton of interest there. But then Pablin was somebody
- 24:51Speaker 3: who was very popular the last time he teed it up.
- 24:53Speaker 3: I don't know if he'll be as popular now. And
- 24:56Speaker 3: then Man, the column or Cow discussion and it can't
- 25:00Speaker 3: discussion for the Ryder Cup is so incredibly interesting. I
- 25:03Speaker 3: think more Cow is the one that like leaves me
- 25:06Speaker 3: with an even more sapot taste in my mouth just
- 25:08Speaker 3: from what he's been doing, because I can't stand everything
- 25:11Speaker 3: he's done off the course. The caddy switches the like
- 25:15Speaker 3: significant and consistent, like just awful, awful media comments, just
- 25:22Speaker 3: like ruining his image. That doesn't scream a confident golfer
- 25:26Speaker 3: to me, and we know how much golf is dependent
- 25:29Speaker 3: on just confidence in your mental state and more cow
- 25:31Speaker 3: seems like somebody who's struggling more than just on the
- 25:33Speaker 3: course in a way that I don't think he's going
- 25:35Speaker 3: to figure it out quickly. I hope for his sake
- 25:37Speaker 3: and for the American, for the Americans, for the American
- 25:40Speaker 3: Ryder Cup teams sake, that he does figure it out,
- 25:43Speaker 3: because I think the team is much better with a strong,
- 25:46Speaker 3: more Cowa than without him. But right now it's just
- 25:49Speaker 3: been ugly.
- 25:50Speaker 2: Yeah, he's going through it for sure, and it's been
- 25:51Speaker 2: I mean, Hoop, you're you're filling it for our guy.
- 25:53Speaker 2: Hoops today a big shoes to fill. But he always
- 25:55Speaker 2: says this about this guy. He's been saying it all
- 25:57Speaker 2: season and correct, I mean once he got the one
- 25:59Speaker 2: eighth recently, but it's been like he's never been needed.
- 26:02Speaker 2: And someone from our community took it back and was like,
- 26:04Speaker 2: it's actually like five months or four months, like he
- 26:07Speaker 2: just never been Based on price the board, DFS Betting
- 26:10Speaker 2: like he's never needed. There's there's nothing that's been required
- 26:13Speaker 2: about him. He continues to get thrown in here at
- 26:15Speaker 2: this price tag, and I think from the Ryder Cup perspective,
- 26:18Speaker 2: there's a lot of good commentary around it, but I
- 26:19Speaker 2: think the clear path is that the Can't la Zander
- 26:22Speaker 2: thing is real. So it's like, at the end of
- 26:24Speaker 2: the day, they're still gonna want to have that if
- 26:26Speaker 2: they're bringing guys like jt on, Like, if you go
- 26:28Speaker 2: back and look at Can't Lays year as a whole,
- 26:29Speaker 2: he's still done better than most. It's not like he's
- 26:33Speaker 2: had a horrible year. It's just not up to power
- 26:35Speaker 2: for what you'd want in majors. It's not a yet
- 26:37Speaker 2: when everyone's gonna come at me for. But my point
- 26:38Speaker 2: is it's nothing like the more a Cow situation, which
- 26:41Speaker 2: is a lot of other off course stuff going on
- 26:44Speaker 2: on top of the encourse stuff, and honestly, on the course,
- 26:46Speaker 2: can't they still had them covered. So I think that's
- 26:49Speaker 2: kind of the key focus for me when it comes
- 26:50Speaker 2: to that. I also wonder how Keegan's gonna handle it
- 26:53Speaker 2: now with guys late in the ear popping up, because
- 26:55Speaker 2: before Keegan actually was in the conversation for a playing captain. Now,
- 27:00Speaker 2: I think he's I don't know, it's too much other
- 27:01Speaker 2: stuff going on. Unless he does something special, it's gonna
- 27:03Speaker 2: have to be like I feel like he's gonna have
- 27:05Speaker 2: to just leave that alone and just coach the team
- 27:08Speaker 2: now and go at it that way and say that
- 27:10Speaker 2: he got the job done there because there's just too
- 27:12Speaker 2: much other storylines and what not going on. But you
- 27:14Speaker 2: gotta feel that it's gonna be interesting. I think it's
- 27:16Speaker 2: gonna be a great Ryder Cup. I'm excited for that
- 27:18Speaker 2: when it comes around. So Hoblin, I was gonna say
- 27:21Speaker 2: one note on just a mention, but I believe he's
- 27:25Speaker 2: getting bet heavily this week. Like I know the number
- 27:28Speaker 2: was up there. I think people were getting it at
- 27:29Speaker 2: thirty three, So I get that. But to your point
- 27:31Speaker 2: of a few different things last time out, he was
- 27:34Speaker 2: definitely clicked a bunch. He's Oh, he's been pretty good here,
- 27:38Speaker 2: second and thirteenth the last two years. The price ninety
- 27:41Speaker 2: three hundred, the betting market if it translates to dfs,
- 27:44Speaker 2: the fact that it is guys like Ludwig Morikawa and
- 27:47Speaker 2: can't lay around him. He was in the eight K
- 27:51Speaker 2: range last time out when he was getting clicked and
- 27:53Speaker 2: did not really come through, But I still think that
- 27:55Speaker 2: that leads to people going to him some So I
- 27:57Speaker 2: think Fitzpatrick Hoveland are sort of where people land, and
- 28:00Speaker 2: then Tommy Ladd always gets a little bit of love
- 28:02Speaker 2: and ninety nine hundred still psychologically like we talked about
- 28:05Speaker 2: the right type of price there, so leave it at
- 28:07Speaker 2: that before we head into the eight K range. Talk
- 28:10Speaker 2: about the AK range from a couple perspectives. One, some
- 28:13Speaker 2: of the guys you see there that you think people
- 28:14Speaker 2: are gonna go to and what stands out guys you like.
- 28:16Speaker 2: But then also this is still somewhat feasible just to
- 28:20Speaker 2: take like a Scottie with an eight K guy right
- 28:23Speaker 2: like and then you run it down there. So I
- 28:25Speaker 2: think that's another conversation to be had is if you're
- 28:28Speaker 2: not doing that, how do you play it differently if
- 28:30Speaker 2: you will? And if you are doing that, how do
- 28:32Speaker 2: you sort of see playing it.
- 28:34Speaker 3: There are a lot of guys in this AK range
- 28:36Speaker 3: that are in form, starting all the way down at
- 28:38Speaker 3: the bottom with god her up, Ben Griffin, Aaron Ry's
- 28:41Speaker 3: in form, Harris English has been great. Then you get
- 28:44Speaker 3: a mix of like really high upside guys who have
- 28:49Speaker 3: been playing quite well for a lot of the season,
- 28:51Speaker 3: but like Kigan, have fallen off a little bit, just
- 28:53Speaker 3: like ceb Straca, like Cork Connor's HYDECKI and Burns at
- 28:58Speaker 3: the top of the eight K's I think could slip
- 29:00Speaker 3: through the cracks a little bit. Burns like another guy
- 29:02Speaker 3: who was red hot and then kind of has fallen
- 29:05Speaker 3: off a little bit since, so he could end up
- 29:08Speaker 3: being really low owaned. This is It's just like a
- 29:10Speaker 3: very very intriguing range where I don't know exactly which
- 29:15Speaker 3: guys to prefer at the moment, because if anyone playing
- 29:18Speaker 3: really well slip through the cracks and isn't going to
- 29:21Speaker 3: be that high owned, okay, just play them ride that
- 29:23Speaker 3: hot hand. But there are also guys who, because there
- 29:26Speaker 3: are so many inform in this range, there are other
- 29:29Speaker 3: guys who we know have a ton of upside who
- 29:31Speaker 3: could really slip through the cracks as well. So I
- 29:34Speaker 3: have a feeling I'm going to want to target someone
- 29:35Speaker 3: in this range. I just have no idea who it's
- 29:37Speaker 3: going to be at this point.
- 29:38Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm thinking about different builds too, Like maybe
- 29:41Speaker 2: you could go with something like, you know, if you're
- 29:43Speaker 2: a guy up top a Xander, then so be it.
- 29:45Speaker 2: I'm saying, I'm not sure who it's going to be,
- 29:46Speaker 2: but if you went with like a Xander and a
- 29:48Speaker 2: couple eight K guys that could get you different, then
- 29:50Speaker 2: with Scotty, it's mostly going to be Scotty and Rye
- 29:53Speaker 2: and then dropping down. I just think people love playing
- 29:55Speaker 2: Aaron Rye. He's sitting there coming off another good week
- 29:58Speaker 2: sixteenth here last year, less than average price of eighty
- 30:01Speaker 2: three hundred. The projections love him early, so things like
- 30:04Speaker 2: that is where I see people landing and starting things off.
- 30:08Speaker 2: There's a ton of other guys around him, and the
- 30:10Speaker 2: eight K range has all the you know, we we
- 30:13Speaker 2: shut out our guy DJ seventy five earlier, all the
- 30:15Speaker 2: or he could guys. You know a djendism for you
- 30:18Speaker 2: is there's a bunch of those. It's like this guy
- 30:20Speaker 2: can never play good this week, or he could, and
- 30:23Speaker 2: you know, this guy's the chalk, we gotta play him.
- 30:25Speaker 2: Nobody else could outdo him or they could. Like there's
- 30:27Speaker 2: so many guys around him that people are gonna make
- 30:29Speaker 2: statements on that. It definitely could be like got her up,
- 30:32Speaker 2: could never play good after a win, a third and
- 30:34Speaker 2: a ten member after the win. No way he's gonna
- 30:36Speaker 2: come out and do good the fallowing week third. Oh,
- 30:38Speaker 2: but that's gotta be it. Now that he's coming back
- 30:40Speaker 2: state side, things are gonna shut down for him. Nope,
- 30:42Speaker 2: tenth Like, if you're playing good, you're playing good, and
- 30:45Speaker 2: you can obviously relate to that. It does. It works
- 30:48Speaker 2: in a lot of different things. It's momentum. Things can
- 30:50Speaker 2: fall off. Just ask our guy callin Marikao. We talked
- 30:52Speaker 2: about earlier things could be going really good. There was
- 30:54Speaker 2: a graphic when he won the Open that was super
- 30:58Speaker 2: comparable to Tiger Woods. At the time. That was actually
- 31:00Speaker 2: the compar It was a legit sample size at that
- 31:03Speaker 2: point of his stuff versus Tiger stuff, similar in age.
- 31:07Speaker 2: How it happened all that people were like whoaahoa, Like
- 31:09Speaker 2: hold up, I would never do this comparison because there's
- 31:12Speaker 2: a long way to go, But this graphic is matching up,
- 31:15Speaker 2: and it was at least a legitimate enough sample size,
- 31:18Speaker 2: not a you know, just like a you know this
- 31:20Speaker 2: week versus this week, like got her up versus Scotty recently.
- 31:24Speaker 2: Everyone that's posting that knows that that's not They're not
- 31:27Speaker 2: dying on that hill. They're just saying, it's pretty interesting
- 31:29Speaker 2: that over this short term he's still outdone him. So
- 31:32Speaker 2: got her up? Is there at a K? Ben Griffith,
- 31:35Speaker 2: what are we a month or six weeks removed he
- 31:37Speaker 2: was the second best player in the world. They're saying,
- 31:39Speaker 2: you know he's coming for everybody. Now, what do we got?
- 31:43Speaker 2: That stretch was a eighth, a win, a second, a
- 31:45Speaker 2: tenth of fourteen thirteen since then miscut, miscut, but then
- 31:48Speaker 2: eleventh again last week. So can he come around? Cam
- 31:52Speaker 2: Young coming off a win, Well, he got his win.
- 31:54Speaker 2: The old one was he's gonna party it up this
- 31:56Speaker 2: week and not be that the guy barely smiles. I
- 31:59Speaker 2: would love to partying and see what that looks like.
- 32:02Speaker 2: So there's all these little options. I'm not gonna name
- 32:05Speaker 2: them all. Keegan playing captain, better show up something this week,
- 32:08Speaker 2: captain to captain for his own rights. You know, he's
- 32:10Speaker 2: got to do it for himself. Hedecki, I thought he
- 32:13Speaker 2: won here last year, right, Yeah, yeah, DECKI won here
- 32:17Speaker 2: last year. Just had to find it and then burns,
- 32:19Speaker 2: you know, like you said, as a guy that can
- 32:21Speaker 2: always show up. So it's not about really, like you said,
- 32:22Speaker 2: picking a guy. That's what we go the opposite on,
- 32:25Speaker 2: not me and you. But like in general most shows,
- 32:27Speaker 2: we're not just looking at the picks and plays. It's
- 32:29Speaker 2: how can we construct these rosters differently and you can
- 32:32Speaker 2: get comfortable. You could go to a balanced build where
- 32:35Speaker 2: the key is this is my big takeaway, I guess.
- 32:37Speaker 2: Then I'll flip back to you for any final thoughts
- 32:38Speaker 2: before we go to the sevens. If you go Scotty,
- 32:41Speaker 2: you know you're limited in this range. But if these
- 32:44Speaker 2: guys are the ones that end up needed, if you
- 32:46Speaker 2: need two or three of these guys and they end
- 32:48Speaker 2: up popping up, it's gonna be with whoever does best
- 32:51Speaker 2: up top. Where that's a scenario where Scotty could Like
- 32:54Speaker 2: this is the funny part. People always say, Scotty at
- 32:56Speaker 2: thirteen K in this field, he's basically got a win
- 32:59Speaker 2: to pay off his value. No, there's so much that
- 33:01Speaker 2: goes on around him that you have to account for.
- 33:03Speaker 2: But vice versa to that, or alongside of it, is
- 33:07Speaker 2: that Scotty could come fifth. But the four guys above
- 33:11Speaker 2: him are all eight K guys, and right on his
- 33:13Speaker 2: tail is Fitzpatrick and Hobland, and it's like Scotty actually
- 33:17Speaker 2: crushed and did his job for his price, but it's
- 33:20Speaker 2: again what happened on the board around him. That's how
- 33:23Speaker 2: you beat the non Scotty lineups if you will in
- 33:26Speaker 2: that type of scenario, just talking through it. Any further
- 33:28Speaker 2: thoughts on that roster construction as a whole with the
- 33:30Speaker 2: eight k's anything else there before moving to the sevens.
- 33:33Speaker 3: Well, if you go with Scotty, you're lock with seventy
- 33:35Speaker 3: four Hunterred for the last five spots. So you actually
- 33:38Speaker 3: can build some pretty quality Scotty lineups with two eight
- 33:42Speaker 3: K guys, particularly if they're a lower eight case like
- 33:44Speaker 3: I don't think you could do Scotty Burns h Decky
- 33:47Speaker 3: very easily, But like Scotty Griffin, Gottarup still leaves six
- 33:51Speaker 3: point ninety six for your next three. So that's actually
- 33:55Speaker 3: a pretty comfortable build. No one will have any issue
- 33:58Speaker 3: going to something like that. So I think it's the
- 34:01Speaker 3: upright K combinations that would be a little bit tougher,
- 34:04Speaker 3: Like if you tried Scotty Burns a DECI. Now you're
- 34:06Speaker 3: left a sixty four point three for your for your
- 34:09Speaker 3: next three guys, So that would be tough to do,
- 34:12Speaker 3: but I think we will see a decent amount of
- 34:14Speaker 3: Scotty plus two eight k's just because like this, like
- 34:17Speaker 3: like you said this, this range is loaded, so people
- 34:19Speaker 3: are gonna love Scotty. They're gonna love this range.
- 34:21Speaker 2: The one thing I'll say, and I agree one hundred
- 34:23Speaker 2: percent because that's the math on it. But if you
- 34:25Speaker 2: do that, I just would tell people again, and a
- 34:27Speaker 2: tool like Saber sim can help you look out for this.
- 34:29Speaker 2: You know there's different tools out there, but just to
- 34:31Speaker 2: show you is that this is the setup where if
- 34:34Speaker 2: people go to Scotty with the most popular eight K
- 34:37Speaker 2: guys or even just I'll be honest, even if people
- 34:39Speaker 2: don't go to the most pop and say, well, I'm
- 34:40Speaker 2: gonna skip right then and go to a couple different
- 34:42Speaker 2: guys in the eight cause that is a good start still,
- 34:44Speaker 2: but where it lands you, I fear, and again, just
- 34:48Speaker 2: keep an eye on your own portfolio when you're going
- 34:49Speaker 2: through it. That then people will land on the same
- 34:52Speaker 2: low seven K guys or upper sixes and they think like, oh,
- 34:57Speaker 2: I'm thinking outside the box. I pretty much skipped all
- 34:59Speaker 2: the chalk in the seven case and I didn't play
- 35:01Speaker 2: Rye it can be enough, it can work, but it
- 35:04Speaker 2: also can put you in a spot where you were
- 35:05Speaker 2: sort of boxing yourself in a little bit. Even though
- 35:08Speaker 2: you may have a unique lineup, your construction is not
- 35:10Speaker 2: actually outside of the box as you thought, because of
- 35:13Speaker 2: putting you in the same sort of zone of everybody
- 35:15Speaker 2: else in the most popular plays where you don't get
- 35:17Speaker 2: a ton of leverage. But yeah, like I said, a
- 35:19Speaker 2: tool like sabersim could set you up for success on that.
- 35:22Speaker 2: I know you have different tools, but just to note it,
- 35:24Speaker 2: that is a possibility. Go to thee.
- 35:26Speaker 3: But one of the things I talk about in my
- 35:29Speaker 3: discord with people is I like to take people off
- 35:31Speaker 3: of the idea of differentiation in lineus because differentiation in
- 35:35Speaker 3: and of itself is not valuable and instead trying to
- 35:37Speaker 3: think about separation potential. And so to your point, like
- 35:41Speaker 3: if you start Scottie and then two Chalky eight K guys,
- 35:45Speaker 3: now you're counting on the cheaper, lowest upside players in
- 35:49Speaker 3: your lineup to give you the separation. That doesn't work
- 35:53Speaker 3: very well, right, Like you can't be counting on a
- 35:56Speaker 3: million Agrillo in this event to give you separation from
- 35:59Speaker 3: the field to to vault you up leaderboards. You want
- 36:02Speaker 3: to find somebody with upside who can actually be that
- 36:06Speaker 3: separator man.
- 36:08Speaker 2: That's a I love that stuff and we got to
- 36:10Speaker 2: get We know what we got to do is we
- 36:12Speaker 2: got to set up a Mastermind episode like a hybrid
- 36:14Speaker 2: where you and I can just go back and forth
- 36:15Speaker 2: like an hour and a half and just break down
- 36:17Speaker 2: this type of stuff. But you know that it goes
- 36:20Speaker 2: to the name ship it nation differentiation separation. You know,
- 36:24Speaker 2: ship a nation separation. That's what we're talking about right there,
- 36:27Speaker 2: and this is going to be it starting tomorrow. So
- 36:29Speaker 2: another reminder for everybody to get over to ship at
- 36:32Speaker 2: games dot com. Be here tomorrow at one o'clock to
- 36:36Speaker 2: make sure that you're signed up for this and all
- 36:38Speaker 2: the promotions are out there, but you can go check
- 36:40Speaker 2: the site right now. The early Bird Special is the
- 36:42Speaker 2: best way to get in. Somebody asked it earlier. What
- 36:44Speaker 2: it comes to. When you do sign up for the
- 36:45Speaker 2: NFL Early Bird package, you get Sabersim included. You get
- 36:49Speaker 2: five hundred and forty nine dollars plus talked about the
- 36:52Speaker 2: Mastermind stuff. We got the free Mastermind course that's the
- 36:55Speaker 2: DFS Mega Course. You get free all access on all
- 36:58Speaker 2: sports with Sabersim up until NFL kicks off. You get
- 37:02Speaker 2: the CFB content for the entire year, including the Optimizer
- 37:05Speaker 2: with Sabersim and the discord, all the updates on the players,
- 37:08Speaker 2: and then there is the mystery bonus coming tomorrow for
- 37:11Speaker 2: all those with an early bird NFL package or an
- 37:14Speaker 2: upgraded annual package. And we'll have more on that to come.
- 37:18Speaker 2: So let's bring it back. Let's pop into the seven
- 37:21Speaker 2: K range here, and what is sort of your thoughts
- 37:24Speaker 2: on the seven K range this week? Because there's there's
- 37:27Speaker 2: enough guys in they're like, there's actually a lot. What
- 37:29Speaker 2: the difference is, I will say, is when you have look,
- 37:32Speaker 2: people are done with this guy. So I won't even
- 37:34Speaker 2: use Grazerman, but you've got Nick Taylor, see Wu Ryan Girard,
- 37:38Speaker 2: Min Wu Lee, Sam Stevens. People usually like to play
- 37:41Speaker 2: the projections. Do at least Novak, Kevin You, Grioh, Nico.
- 37:45Speaker 2: These are all guys people are very comfortable playing, I think,
- 37:48Speaker 2: and there's not a ton of difference in lineup construction
- 37:51Speaker 2: or what you just talk about with like separation versus differentiation,
- 37:54Speaker 2: where I think people will be comfortable relying on some
- 37:57Speaker 2: of these guys. So how are you handling the sevens
- 37:58Speaker 2: and what's your thoughts on the sevens versus the upper
- 38:01Speaker 2: sixes because I was kind of throw them into the
- 38:03Speaker 2: mix anyway.
- 38:04Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, this is the range where I do
- 38:06Speaker 3: see a lot of separation potential from guys, and it's
- 38:10Speaker 3: it's ironically because there's not a lot of separation in
- 38:13Speaker 3: their actual projections, and so wherever the chalk goes to,
- 38:18Speaker 3: you can, like, like we talked about earlier, we have
- 38:21Speaker 3: basically free license this week to just go to contrarian
- 38:25Speaker 3: guys in this range. We're going to sacrifice very little
- 38:27Speaker 3: from a projection standpoint, and we can go to a
- 38:30Speaker 3: lot of the time higher upside plates. So for example,
- 38:33Speaker 3: like Shane Lowry at seventy four hundred dollars, I think
- 38:35Speaker 3: that price tag is going to attract people. I know
- 38:37Speaker 3: he's not in the best form, but I think that
- 38:40Speaker 3: price tag end up itself is going to attract people.
- 38:42Speaker 3: But you can go to a much higher volatility player
- 38:45Speaker 3: like a Jake Knapp potentially at lower ownership, and now
- 38:49Speaker 3: when that plays really well, if you get just another
- 38:51Speaker 3: middling event from Lowry, you're getting that separation. So that's
- 38:55Speaker 3: the kind of thing I'm gonna be looking for throughout
- 38:57Speaker 3: this price range. I think when a Clark is another
- 39:00Speaker 3: potentially really valuable to guy, really valuable guy to go
- 39:02Speaker 3: to here, even though he's going to project a little
- 39:05Speaker 3: bit worse than just about any of the popular options
- 39:08Speaker 3: in this range. But when he plays well, is he
- 39:10Speaker 3: at the top of leaderboard, he makes a ton of birdies.
- 39:12Speaker 3: That's the kind of thing I'm looking for this week.
- 39:14Speaker 2: And it goes back to what people asked about earlier.
- 39:16Speaker 2: I know it seems, you know, for those that live
- 39:17Speaker 2: within the bubble with us and they've heard this stuff before,
- 39:19Speaker 2: I get it, but not everybody has. Some people are
- 39:21Speaker 2: starting questioning how they do it. Is there's some of
- 39:24Speaker 2: these safety valve plays where it's based on a good
- 39:27Speaker 2: projection which is baked in off of a good betting
- 39:30Speaker 2: board odds where it's baked in off of official world
- 39:33Speaker 2: golf rankings. It's like those are literally the worst rankings.
- 39:36Speaker 2: They're trying to revamp them all the time. So it's
- 39:38Speaker 2: like one thing leads to another, and that's where people
- 39:40Speaker 2: get confused. But when you have four rounds, yes, someone
- 39:43Speaker 2: will probably WD or whatever happens happens. I get it,
- 39:46Speaker 2: but it's like we're thinking positively here glass half full
- 39:49Speaker 2: or more full. You know. This is the point is,
- 39:52Speaker 2: if you're thinking that way, it's like the safety valve
- 39:54Speaker 2: doesn't really do a lot for it. You need the
- 39:55Speaker 2: wild setup, you need the scoring, you need the finishing position,
- 39:58Speaker 2: you need the risk reward because it'll be separation to
- 40:01Speaker 2: your point, not only in the ownership setup of your
- 40:04Speaker 2: lineup and different maybe construction whatever that is. But if
- 40:07Speaker 2: they do have their ceiling outcome, they're just so far
- 40:10Speaker 2: ahead of the rest of the pack because because of
- 40:12Speaker 2: where they are and what their upside is, that's what's
- 40:15Speaker 2: going to separate you. So don't don't be afraid to
- 40:16Speaker 2: take the risk on those guys, and then you could
- 40:19Speaker 2: do whatever you want a little bit different around them,
- 40:21Speaker 2: as long as you're willing to make that take that
- 40:23Speaker 2: risk on some of those options. So I think that's
- 40:25Speaker 2: a good call. With guys like Shane Lowry, who really
- 40:28Speaker 2: has nothing to show for anything, you know, but people
- 40:31Speaker 2: will say at seventy four hundred at his price point,
- 40:33Speaker 2: at his this that's kind of the setup that I'm
- 40:36Speaker 2: looking at. So I think I think that's kind of
- 40:38Speaker 2: a good point you made. People will definitely fall into
- 40:40Speaker 2: that camp and take their safety valves there as opposed
- 40:44Speaker 2: to another spots. And it's like you could definitely take
- 40:47Speaker 2: your stands down low, pick your guys you feel safer
- 40:50Speaker 2: with there, and then sprinkle some of these high upside,
- 40:53Speaker 2: high risk, high reward options in this seven K range,
- 40:56Speaker 2: which I think is a good spot to do it
- 40:58Speaker 2: this week. I'm trying to see there's anybody else. Was
- 41:00Speaker 2: there any other names specifically that stood out there? I
- 41:03Speaker 2: know you've mentioned Nap a couple of times. What about
- 41:05Speaker 2: like Harry Hall, Bobby mack, Wyndam, Clark Mav some of
- 41:09Speaker 2: those guys. Was there any other names that stood up
- 41:11Speaker 2: to you in this range that might get overlooked?
- 41:13Speaker 3: Yeah. I think Spawn. I don't know what it is,
- 41:16Speaker 3: but people just don't seem to want to play JJ Spawn.
- 41:19Speaker 3: And he's a really good player. We've seen, like you
- 41:25Speaker 3: can't accidentally win a US Open. But it's one't though,
- 41:28Speaker 3: like he's just he's a better player than a lot
- 41:30Speaker 3: of the guys in this range, and I don't think
- 41:32Speaker 3: people are gonna want to play him because over the
- 41:34Speaker 3: last month, like since his win, people just say, like
- 41:36Speaker 3: Oh he got his big win. It's not gonna happen
- 41:41Speaker 3: again this year or something like that, Like that sort
- 41:43Speaker 3: of thought process doesn't actually have any merit to it,
- 41:46Speaker 3: and he seems like he's going to be under on
- 41:48Speaker 3: for sure.
- 41:49Speaker 2: Yeah. I love this comment from BG little next that's
- 41:51Speaker 2: full of evergreen DFS advice so good it could be
- 41:53Speaker 2: paywallt Thanks to the insights, Tambo and Alex. We appreciate you, man,
- 41:56Speaker 2: and definitely that's what makes it fun when it's more organic,
- 41:59Speaker 2: like just text Alex say, yo, here's the situation you
- 42:02Speaker 2: want to hop on. He's like down instantly, and I
- 42:04Speaker 2: love that. So certainly appreciated Alex, and obviously love going
- 42:07Speaker 2: through the stuff with you on the JJ spawn note.
- 42:10Speaker 2: I actually go on a different rant here with you.
- 42:12Speaker 2: I want to get your take on this. Did you
- 42:13Speaker 2: see I know it's like L A B. Putters, but
- 42:18Speaker 2: it was it's laugh people say laugh like lab. But
- 42:20Speaker 2: did you see this acquisition situation like the firm that
- 42:23Speaker 2: just gobbled them up for two hundred million dollars instantly?
- 42:26Speaker 2: What did you see that? And what was your take
- 42:28Speaker 2: on it? If you did. I'm always curious about the
- 42:30Speaker 2: business side of golf as well. Just what your thoughts are.
- 42:33Speaker 3: I know very little about equipment for a guy as
- 42:39Speaker 3: not that I'm that accomplished, but like for someone who
- 42:41Speaker 3: has played the level of golf that I've played, I
- 42:43Speaker 3: know very little about equipment, to the point where I
- 42:45Speaker 3: don't even always know that what clubs I'm playing, Like
- 42:48Speaker 3: I'll get new clubs to tell me, like what Marrowl'd
- 42:50Speaker 3: you get? I'm like, I don't know which everyone's they
- 42:51Speaker 3: gave me, everyone's I tested best to it. I just
- 42:54Speaker 3: do what they tell me. I just I'll try anything everything,
- 42:57Speaker 3: And I don't care what they're called. I don't all
- 43:00Speaker 3: that stuff. So I I did see it, but I
- 43:02Speaker 3: don't know a lot about it. And and I know
- 43:07Speaker 3: like a little bit about the technology to these to
- 43:09Speaker 3: these putters, I will say to the average golfer, it's
- 43:14Speaker 3: probably a waste of money. You have to be very
- 43:18Speaker 3: very consistent with your putting stroke. For the tech in
- 43:22Speaker 3: a lot of the putting shafts, especially like the putters themselves,
- 43:26Speaker 3: they can help anybody. This the expensive putting shafts, you
- 43:30Speaker 3: have to have a very good, consistent putting stroke for
- 43:33Speaker 3: it to have any effect.
- 43:34Speaker 2: Yeah, I know people are probably laughing because they'll never
- 43:37Speaker 2: get equipment talk out of me. I'm same as you
- 43:38Speaker 2: when it comes to DFS and you're like, yo, so
- 43:40Speaker 2: and so has changed his driver. I'm like, man, he
- 43:42Speaker 2: could have practiced with this new driver for the last
- 43:45Speaker 2: eight weeks and now it's fully ready to go. You
- 43:47Speaker 2: didn't know that. You're never gonna get that kid bit.
- 43:49Speaker 2: You're gonna get the one side of the story. Like
- 43:50Speaker 2: so and so is putting a driver in play, everyone
- 43:53Speaker 2: goes immediately to negative like, oh this is not or
- 43:56Speaker 2: if it's a positive light, they put it automatic into
- 43:58Speaker 2: the positive. Same same thing vicec Rory's going back to
- 44:01Speaker 2: this driver. Now he's gonna crush what says it that's
- 44:03Speaker 2: saying he's struggling with what he curly has. He's thinking
- 44:06Speaker 2: this it's fifty to fifty. You're never going to know.
- 44:08Speaker 2: But to me, there's always a different angle to look at.
- 44:10Speaker 2: But to me, with this deal, the business aspect of
- 44:12Speaker 2: it was most important, and just the psychology aspect of
- 44:15Speaker 2: it of people seeing day Jay spot like they hit
- 44:18Speaker 2: a lightning bowl right, the lightning rod of a player
- 44:20Speaker 2: wins major with tool device Platt putter in this format
- 44:25Speaker 2: and then there is other stuff baked in, but they
- 44:27Speaker 2: already had sales. Now sales spike the pe firms like,
- 44:31Speaker 2: we're gonna automatically collect on all these sales plus the
- 44:35Speaker 2: future add ons and the stack. I really think it
- 44:37Speaker 2: was a good deal for both sides, but I think
- 44:39Speaker 2: they're going to make out more than okay on this
- 44:41Speaker 2: just based on the back end numbers, back in the
- 44:43Speaker 2: napkin numbers of the business deal. And that's something I like, like,
- 44:46Speaker 2: you know, always looking at different things with acquisitions. I know,
- 44:48Speaker 2: shout out to our guy Pat Meyo just had the
- 44:50Speaker 2: Fantasy National with Betsford's golf and the rabbit Hole, Like
- 44:53Speaker 2: there's all kinds of different things going on in the
- 44:55Speaker 2: behind the scenes of it, and that one, to me
- 44:58Speaker 2: was quite interesting. It's just immediate. Like I posted the
- 45:02Speaker 2: Shark Tank thing, it's like, so, what are your sales?
- 45:04Speaker 2: You know, one hundred and eleven thousand, But I got
- 45:05Speaker 2: the slips here that say four hundred and fifty thousand
- 45:08Speaker 2: are now buying this putter and they're like, all right,
- 45:10Speaker 2: sold for two hundred million, Like we'll just take it
- 45:12Speaker 2: because I can figure out the numbers on it. But
- 45:14Speaker 2: it's always wild and with equipment, it's tough to say
- 45:17Speaker 2: what's gonna happen. But I remember people used to make
- 45:19Speaker 2: fun of like those going to the tournaments and selling
- 45:22Speaker 2: you the magic iron or the magic driver. It always
- 45:26Speaker 2: hits the center of the face, and like setting up
- 45:27Speaker 2: the booths and all that. I can just imagine the hustle.
- 45:30Speaker 2: You've probably been tried to get wood on a bunch
- 45:32Speaker 2: of those deals throughout your time playing, where people like,
- 45:35Speaker 2: just try this out, try this out, and you'll take
- 45:36Speaker 2: what you can for free. I'm sure, but if if
- 45:39Speaker 2: it's not gonna fit your game, you're not gonna run
- 45:41Speaker 2: it for no reason.
- 45:42Speaker 3: Yeah, I was. I was awkward to a full set
- 45:45Speaker 3: of irons ones for free and then they were like, oh,
- 45:49Speaker 3: by the way, but you'll have to pay for him
- 45:50Speaker 3: in a month. I'm like, okay, so you're not getting
- 45:52Speaker 3: these for free. It's like it's free. It's so strange
- 45:55Speaker 3: for Yeah, they try a lot of different stuff.
- 45:58Speaker 2: Yeah. The other thing I'll say here in the seven
- 46:00Speaker 2: K range, as quick as I see like a little
- 46:03Speaker 2: bit of congregation at the top, a little bit of
- 46:06Speaker 2: congregation at the bottom. I'm not sure, maybe MAV because
- 46:09Speaker 2: people always seem to like to play this guy, but
- 46:11Speaker 2: I do wonder on like Windham, the aforementioned nap who
- 46:15Speaker 2: you talked about, Denny McCarthy, Jason Day, Brian Harmon, Chris
- 46:19Speaker 2: kirk Off a good week, Like where do these guys
- 46:21Speaker 2: all show up with the Kidiam of Post and Batsias
- 46:25Speaker 2: at the bottom? Which you know, Akhay could literally I
- 46:27Speaker 2: mean wded he could literally fall off the face of
- 46:30Speaker 2: the earth for a month and people would still play
- 46:32Speaker 2: him when he comes back, regardless of price. He's just
- 46:34Speaker 2: a great dude to follow. He's happy, go lucky, He's
- 46:37Speaker 2: got a great game that's built for it. It's just
- 46:38Speaker 2: you know, we haven't seen lately, not that much right
- 46:41Speaker 2: the WD before that twenty fifth, thirtieth, twenty six, sixteen,
- 46:45Speaker 2: So people will still play their guys here. But I
- 46:47Speaker 2: do think there is that pocket in the middle that
- 46:50Speaker 2: goes a little bit more overlook JJ spawn to some
- 46:52Speaker 2: of those other guys above him, Like you said, so
- 46:54Speaker 2: interesting to see how it all plays out. But let's
- 46:56Speaker 2: round it out. Let's go to this six K range.
- 46:59Speaker 2: Final thoughts here. The six is just some of the
- 47:01Speaker 2: guys that stand out. But clearly you can play a
- 47:03Speaker 2: few of these guys together and put the Wiscoatti up top.
- 47:06Speaker 2: Or you can get different with a balanced build with
- 47:07Speaker 2: a couple sixes. Lots of ways you can go. What
- 47:10Speaker 2: are the six k's saying to you when you're first
- 47:12Speaker 2: looking at it?
- 47:12Speaker 3: Here, My immediate thoughts are Nick Taylor, Ryan Gerard, Kevin You,
- 47:16Speaker 3: Amelion agrie Leve will probably look like the best in
- 47:20Speaker 3: our numbers. The guy who I know is going to
- 47:24Speaker 3: look pretty good in our numbers that I'm not quite
- 47:27Speaker 3: sold on is Seawou Kim. He has not played well
- 47:31Speaker 3: in these last few events, and it's kind of been
- 47:36Speaker 3: every part of his game, Like he was bad in
- 47:39Speaker 3: both ball striking metrics at the three M, he was
- 47:42Speaker 3: really bad with his irons at the Windham. His putting
- 47:45Speaker 3: has been atrocious since the Memorial in the beginning of June.
- 47:49Speaker 3: There's just not a whole lot to look at with
- 47:51Speaker 3: Sea Wou, not just to think that he can play
- 47:54Speaker 3: well this week, but especially not to think that he
- 47:56Speaker 3: has a ceiling this week. So I think that's going
- 47:59Speaker 3: to be a projection that I'm just not following of ours.
- 48:02Speaker 3: But as we said earlier, like you can take a
- 48:06Speaker 3: chance on any of these guys, there's no one in
- 48:08Speaker 3: this range that can't play well. There's no one in
- 48:10Speaker 3: this range that can't play poorly. So it's just a
- 48:14Speaker 3: number scheme. And I think the key for me is,
- 48:17Speaker 3: like I don't see anyone in this range that I
- 48:19Speaker 3: think I want to count on as a separator in
- 48:21Speaker 3: my lineup, so I might actually favor floor from these
- 48:25Speaker 3: guys rather than ceiling. The one exception could be Nick Taylor.
- 48:28Speaker 3: I do have an outright on Nick Taylor. We've found
- 48:30Speaker 3: him at one point eight percent to win in ninety
- 48:32Speaker 3: to one, so I like that a lot. And I
- 48:34Speaker 3: just think in addition to being one of the higher
- 48:37Speaker 3: volatility guys down here, he more so than anyone else
- 48:41Speaker 3: in this range, I'm going to have confidence in on
- 48:44Speaker 3: Sunday if he's in contention.
- 48:46Speaker 2: Yeah, it can really avoid a bogie too, like in
- 48:48Speaker 2: the time of need. Like that's the only thing I
- 48:50Speaker 2: know I got the Canadian bias. But if you just
- 48:51Speaker 2: think back to even the year that he won that
- 48:53Speaker 2: RBC Canadian Open, the waste Management Phoenix open, Like there's
- 48:56Speaker 2: bogies to be found everywhere, but you know those courts
- 49:00Speaker 2: is maybe not as much as others, but at this
- 49:01Speaker 2: course I think that's kind of one thing we're counting
- 49:03Speaker 2: on With a guy like him, he can come through.
- 49:05Speaker 2: I think the Sea wou thing is certainly interesting, like
- 49:07Speaker 2: the first argument, So I always say with content, you
- 49:09Speaker 2: can go one way or the other. I'm with your
- 49:11Speaker 2: way of thinking. But I wonder if what people are
- 49:13Speaker 2: thinking is I'm buying Colin Morikawa for sixty eight hundred dollars.
- 49:17Speaker 2: Their scorecards look identical for this season, like it's an
- 49:20Speaker 2: eighth way back when with some miscuts eleven thirty four,
- 49:24Speaker 2: like it's it's not much going on there, so people
- 49:26Speaker 2: can see it from that perspective. But he's just so
- 49:28Speaker 2: cheap on paper when you look at the betting odds
- 49:31Speaker 2: and the rankings and all that stuff that people go there.
- 49:34Speaker 2: You know where I'm going. Song Jay, He's back. Look
- 49:36Speaker 2: at last week, but you know he still blew it
- 49:38Speaker 2: up in the fourth either way, sixty eight hundred, he's there.
- 49:41Speaker 2: But I think there's something to be said for some
- 49:43Speaker 2: of those guys lower and this is for sure it's
- 49:46Speaker 2: pretty common, but also just has to be pointed out.
- 49:49Speaker 2: The upper six case yes, are always more popular, even
- 49:53Speaker 2: though you don't see a lot of double digit ownership,
- 49:55Speaker 2: and I get that, but Nick Taylor, you said it,
- 49:58Speaker 2: Sea Wou, Ryan Girard Kevin, You like, that's where people
- 50:01Speaker 2: land here. Not only is there guys in there, like
- 50:03Speaker 2: the Michael Kims or the Novaks of the world that
- 50:06Speaker 2: definitely could come through and have been playing just fine.
- 50:07Speaker 2: And again at Novak was the best in the world
- 50:10Speaker 2: quote unquote at one time to everybody, and they loved him.
- 50:12Speaker 2: Why not now at sixty six hundred, we know what
- 50:14Speaker 2: his upside could be. I'll take some shots there, But
- 50:17Speaker 2: it's the guys down below from that, Like if you
- 50:20Speaker 2: look at Bridgeman or Bud Cawley or whatever else you
- 50:23Speaker 2: like down there, my boy Steven Yegg or people like EVR,
- 50:26Speaker 2: like whatever it is you like down there, this is
- 50:28Speaker 2: where you could take some shots because they're two three
- 50:31Speaker 2: hundred bucks in the difference and you kind have a
- 50:33Speaker 2: maxed out Scottie Scheffler lineup that's super choky, not much separation.
- 50:38Speaker 2: I'm with you that you're not always gonna get a
- 50:40Speaker 2: lot of separation down here. But if you like your build,
- 50:43Speaker 2: taking Sea Wu Kim down to Michael Kim for one
- 50:47Speaker 2: hundred bucks less could be the difference of ten fifteen
- 50:49Speaker 2: points in ownership and just completely different. And that would
- 50:52Speaker 2: be a separation piece because most lineups that land on
- 50:55Speaker 2: a cheaper option are gonna have Sea Wu. So if
- 50:58Speaker 2: you had more Michael Kim and used him as sort
- 51:00Speaker 2: of a stand just using an example, again, not about
- 51:02Speaker 2: the picks, it's just about the process. If you did that,
- 51:05Speaker 2: you would have more lineups in contention, and you'd have
- 51:09Speaker 2: enough Michael Kim in that example that so many lineups
- 51:12Speaker 2: are dying on Seawoo Kim in this example, whereas you've
- 51:15Speaker 2: got enough Michael Kim to not just have him with Scotty,
- 51:19Speaker 2: but those Scotty ones are probably majority of where you
- 51:21Speaker 2: have him because prices and I get that, but you'd
- 51:23Speaker 2: be able to have different differentiation and separation in combo
- 51:27Speaker 2: pack there because of your your stand that you take
- 51:31Speaker 2: or your can't think of the word right now, but
- 51:34Speaker 2: you're sort of it was business say, your stand that
- 51:36Speaker 2: you take on that your conviction conviction, Sorry, it was
- 51:39Speaker 2: on tip toe of what you're doing down there, and
- 51:41Speaker 2: that could be with other guys. It's not about Michael Kim.
- 51:43Speaker 2: I'm saying there's other options. If you go back to
- 51:45Speaker 2: the well people liked Bud Cawley. What was it last
- 51:48Speaker 2: week or the week before and he missed the cut
- 51:50Speaker 2: or the event before, and now he's down at this price.
- 51:53Speaker 2: You could go back Tom he sixty four hundred. You
- 51:54Speaker 2: could play d Tree, you could play Fox, or there's
- 51:56Speaker 2: other guys that you can go to. DN Nico last
- 51:58Speaker 2: week wasn't even that bad finishing nineteenth. I don't see
- 52:01Speaker 2: nearly as many people landing on Nico as Grio and
- 52:05Speaker 2: you right above him, Gerard right above them, and see
- 52:08Speaker 2: who right above Gerard. So anything else in the sixes
- 52:11Speaker 2: you want to talk about, or just overall with the event, roster, construction, anything,
- 52:15Speaker 2: bring it up now and then we'll get out of here. Yeah.
- 52:17Speaker 3: Two things. Number one, I think the colleague call is
- 52:20Speaker 3: quite good because yeah, colleaye call, I think it's a
- 52:24Speaker 3: really good one. Because at the window, like he just
- 52:27Speaker 3: had an issue with three foot putts kind of nowhere.
- 52:31Speaker 3: He's a very good putter. He lost three point four
- 52:33Speaker 3: strokes per round putting at the window, and like I said,
- 52:36Speaker 3: it came out of nowhere. Those were incredibly fast screens,
- 52:39Speaker 3: especially down grain. Getting off those grains should fix him automatically.
- 52:44Speaker 3: And the other thing is like, okay, if you're having
- 52:46Speaker 3: an issue with four foot putt, like that's one of
- 52:48Speaker 3: the easier things to fix for the week of practice.
- 52:50Speaker 3: So I like that one. I do want to talk
- 52:52Speaker 3: about such for a little bit because I've been I've
- 52:55Speaker 3: been listening to you and Pat talk about some JA
- 52:57Speaker 3: for weeks now, and I kind of joined the commerce
- 53:00Speaker 3: station because I think I'm on Pat side here.
- 53:04Speaker 2: You probably shouldn't. I'll let you go ahead. Yes.
- 53:06Speaker 3: The second worst approach estimate that we have this week
- 53:11Speaker 3: is for Davis Riley and Joe high Smith at point
- 53:14Speaker 3: five six at negative point five to six Strokeskain approach
- 53:18Speaker 3: some Jay's at negative point eighty eight. It is by
- 53:22Speaker 3: far the worst estimate of any player any category this week.
- 53:27Speaker 3: It's hard to overstate how bad his iron play has been.
- 53:30Speaker 3: And the problem with that is, like we just saw
- 53:32Speaker 3: this past week some j quote unquote spiked with his
- 53:36Speaker 3: irons to what was it zero point one strokes game pround? Yeah,
- 53:42Speaker 3: zero point one zero strokes game round. That was a
- 53:44Speaker 3: spike for him at the window. So he spiked with
- 53:48Speaker 3: his irons and got a T twenty seven out of it.
- 53:50Speaker 3: It's just so hard to contend when you're ball striking?
- 53:54Speaker 3: Is that bad? For a while there, I was actually
- 53:59Speaker 3: still playing him like I played him at the Memorial.
- 54:01Speaker 3: He got me a sixteenth place finish. That was strong.
- 54:03Speaker 3: I'll take it. But as soon as you get off
- 54:07Speaker 3: extremely difficult golf courses, you need to hit the ball close,
- 54:10Speaker 3: you need to make birdie's and he just has so
- 54:14Speaker 3: much trouble doing that because he doesn't have distance and
- 54:17Speaker 3: he doesn't have iron play. Those are the two things
- 54:20Speaker 3: that can actually lead to consistent birdie opportunities. He doesn't
- 54:25Speaker 3: have either one. I don't know where you find a
- 54:27Speaker 3: ceiling from him.
- 54:29Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't disagree with you, it's just you know,
- 54:31Speaker 2: it's my guy. I always stick with him. But I think,
- 54:33Speaker 2: like what we've talked about is that it's been bad.
- 54:36Speaker 2: You know, the idea here is like it's a bit
- 54:38Speaker 2: baked in at sixty eight hundred, but maybe you know
- 54:40Speaker 2: it could be sixty two sixty one? Kid, did it
- 54:42Speaker 2: definitely be lower. It's just more of I've been The
- 54:44Speaker 2: problem is, though, Alex, here's the thing. I've been waiting
- 54:47Speaker 2: for the season to end so I don't need to
- 54:49Speaker 2: play this guy anymore. And it's like, if you go
- 54:52Speaker 2: look because of his Master's result, because of his good
- 54:55Speaker 2: finishes this season's he was sitting thirtieth in the FedEx
- 54:58Speaker 2: Cut playoffs last week. I don't think last week hurt him.
- 55:02Speaker 2: I didn't look at the most updated ones. I mean
- 55:04Speaker 2: that's the most hilarious thing too. By the way, on
- 55:06Speaker 2: a side note, while I try and pull this up fast,
- 55:08Speaker 2: is last week everybody cares about like, oh, he's on
- 55:11Speaker 2: the outside looking in, he's got to make the playoffs.
- 55:14Speaker 2: What about this week there's gonna be everyone that's outside
- 55:16Speaker 2: is you know, very close to the number. It's seventy
- 55:18Speaker 2: seventy down to the fifty highest points that finishes this week.
- 55:22Speaker 2: So the point would be is like people look at
- 55:23Speaker 2: it this week, it should matter the same. But it's
- 55:25Speaker 2: the point of why last week it doesn't because it doesn't.
- 55:28Speaker 2: There's twenty guys outside that need to get in, there's
- 55:30Speaker 2: twenty guys inside that need to stay in. It's all
- 55:32Speaker 2: the same shit. So you can argue it either way,
- 55:34Speaker 2: like I talked to it earlier, and mind you a
- 55:36Speaker 2: Sung Jay twenty ninth, twenty ninth is where he's sitting,
- 55:39Speaker 2: so you know, the guy still makes his way up
- 55:42Speaker 2: there I don't see like Speed is on the outside
- 55:45Speaker 2: looking in Seewoo. There's a lot all these guys are.
- 55:47Speaker 2: But I'm just saying of the names that were up there,
- 55:49Speaker 2: it's a lot of what you would expect, and I
- 55:51Speaker 2: don't know. Maybe Speed can make something happen here, but
- 55:53Speaker 2: a lot of the guys just on the inside, you know,
- 55:56Speaker 2: gott her Up can't lay Burns Hoveland, Sung Jay Berger.
- 56:01Speaker 2: I think these guys would be pretty popular, like people
- 56:03Speaker 2: want to play them anyway, And now that's just another
- 56:04Speaker 2: added fuel to the fire type argument. But yeah, I
- 56:08Speaker 2: don't have too much else Sung Jay hard to defend
- 56:10Speaker 2: at this point. The only defense is that there's only
- 56:13Speaker 2: a couple of weeks left after this, so we'll reassess
- 56:16Speaker 2: for next season and see what happens.
- 56:18Speaker 3: I think that eventually he's going to figure out the
- 56:20Speaker 3: Irons and there will be a point where, like we
- 56:23Speaker 3: want to be ahead of the curve on him, but
- 56:26Speaker 3: I don't think it's right now. And I think the
- 56:28Speaker 3: last thing I'll say here is early in the season,
- 56:30Speaker 3: the Irons were still really bad, but the driving was
- 56:33Speaker 3: consistently really good. The driving has also fallen off a
- 56:37Speaker 3: little bit late and to me. That kind of says, Okay,
- 56:39Speaker 3: he's trying to figure out the iron swing, and like
- 56:43Speaker 3: just a little bit of GOLFINSI here, Swinging irons and
- 56:46Speaker 3: swinging your driver are actually quite different. And the harder
- 56:49Speaker 3: you're working, the more change you're trying to make with
- 56:52Speaker 3: your iron swing, the harder it is to stay consistent
- 56:54Speaker 3: with your driver swing. So I think he might have
- 56:58Speaker 3: yet another step backwards to take before he can start
- 57:01Speaker 3: making two or three strides forward again.
- 57:03Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta take down that. Nobody cares. Work harder,
- 57:05Speaker 2: sign and send. Sung Jaya works smarter, not harder. He's
- 57:09Speaker 2: he's working on the stuff, but it's it can be deterrent.
- 57:12Speaker 2: It can be a deterrent to the other stuff to
- 57:14Speaker 2: keep it in check. I know people you know like
- 57:15Speaker 2: to make fun of the Sung Jay slim joke as
- 57:18Speaker 2: well when he started to slim down. I mean, that
- 57:21Speaker 2: definitely can change your swing. I don't care anybody's We've
- 57:23Speaker 2: seen it time and time again. It's like you have
- 57:25Speaker 2: one body composition, one motion, one feeling. And I thought
- 57:28Speaker 2: it was hilarious that, you know, we didn't get the
- 57:31Speaker 2: We're at the end now, so who cares? He got
- 57:32Speaker 2: a few minutes left the Happy Gilmore two, Like how
- 57:34Speaker 2: the movie just flipped on a dime to like, all
- 57:36Speaker 2: of a sudden, it went to back surgeries that people
- 57:39Speaker 2: were getting to like swing longer and stuff like it
- 57:41Speaker 2: just like a whole nother movie within a movie. I
- 57:43Speaker 2: like how Mayo put it, and it was like, yeah,
- 57:45Speaker 2: that's uh. You know. A thing though, is like people
- 57:47Speaker 2: do change their body composition and then their swing changes
- 57:51Speaker 2: because of it. I don't know if he's still working
- 57:53Speaker 2: through that or whatnot, but he definitely did slim down
- 57:55Speaker 2: from when we first saw some Jay come into the
- 57:57Speaker 2: come on to the tour right, Definitely Happy Go More
- 58:01Speaker 2: to take before we go.
- 58:02Speaker 3: I haven't seen it yet.
- 58:04Speaker 2: Oh it's gotta be bad if the golf guy himself
- 58:08Speaker 2: doesn't go and check it out. I mean, you know,
- 58:10Speaker 2: the original is such a classic you might be better
- 58:12Speaker 2: off to not watch. But the funny part is, and
- 58:15Speaker 2: I keep shitting on this as people say it's definitely watchable,
- 58:18Speaker 2: as if people were watch Now you are the guy
- 58:20Speaker 2: that hasn't watched it. It's like, man, it's it's watchable
- 58:23Speaker 2: for sure. It is what you thought it was going
- 58:25Speaker 2: to be. It was never gonna be a masterpiece. I
- 58:26Speaker 2: get that angle, but it just seemed like, you know,
- 58:29Speaker 2: a lot of attempts at a lot of things. So
- 58:32Speaker 2: someone mentioned earlier, which is worse Cow's recent form or
- 58:36Speaker 2: his acting skills. I mean the you know, all different
- 58:39Speaker 2: stuff in that movie. It was like Xander, Ricky, other
- 58:41Speaker 2: guys just it was it was bad for certain guys
- 58:43Speaker 2: that others liked. I didn't. But yeah, let the people
- 58:46Speaker 2: know where they can find you. Man, everything you've got
- 58:48Speaker 2: going on, Xander deserves an Oscar, absolutely not Now whoever
- 58:53Speaker 2: wrote the clip for him while making fun of him
- 58:56Speaker 2: for him not ever deserving an act an Oscar is
- 59:00Speaker 2: the person that actually deserves an Oscar. But go ahead, Alex,
- 59:02Speaker 2: I won't cut you off again. Where can the people
- 59:04Speaker 2: find you what he got going on?
- 59:05Speaker 3: Yeah, you can find me at FT and Fantasy. You
- 59:07Speaker 3: can find me at Alex book one on Twitter. Then
- 59:09Speaker 3: you can figure out all the different stuff and got
- 59:11Speaker 3: going on. I think the other thing I'll shout out
- 59:13Speaker 3: real quick is in my discord, the pick them stuff
- 59:16Speaker 3: props has been awesome. I know it's something that you
- 59:19Speaker 3: guys don't do a ton of, but it's something I
- 59:21Speaker 3: love doing and it's not just about like sharing picks.
- 59:25Speaker 3: People can tail me and they do it if they'd like,
- 59:28Speaker 3: But I'm also putting like the rationale behind every single
- 59:30Speaker 3: pick that I make. So whether we're talking PJ, whether
- 59:32Speaker 3: we're talking MLB, just hit another big three pick play
- 59:35Speaker 3: last night, and then of course NFL coming up, like
- 59:38Speaker 3: NFL pick them is so much fun and we're gonna
- 59:42Speaker 3: have a blast this season. So check out everything I
- 59:44Speaker 3: got going on with my discord as well. Like I said,
- 59:46Speaker 3: you can find all of that through my Twitter at
- 59:48Speaker 3: Alex book.
- 59:50Speaker 2: Yeah, you bet. Definitely trying out Alex guys. Awesome dude,
- 59:52Speaker 2: always willing to help out, doing a ton of good stuff,
- 59:54Speaker 2: super sharp, always there in the satellite streets right up
- 59:57Speaker 2: to the top, playing in the megas when he wins
- 59:59Speaker 2: those tickets, you know, side of things, definitely. But all
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: that other stuff, like you said, you can apply to
- 1:00:03Speaker 2: whatever you want to apply it towards. You can tail
- 1:00:05Speaker 2: them and play the pickups, you can go into the
- 1:00:07Speaker 2: prop stuff. You can use it for dfs, you can
- 1:00:09Speaker 2: use it for outright, so you can use it for
- 1:00:10Speaker 2: whatever you want to use it for. So check out
- 1:00:12Speaker 2: everything Alex has going on. Check out ship it Games,
- 1:00:15Speaker 2: dot com. Ship It Nation. If you are playing DFS
- 1:00:18Speaker 2: this upcoming NFL season, there's not gonna be a better
- 1:00:20Speaker 2: place to do it because of the game. Somebody said.
- 1:00:23Speaker 2: There was one guest in the chat said the grand
- 1:00:25Speaker 2: prize equals full lifetime complete package membership. We take a
- 1:00:31Speaker 2: lot of lifetimes to equal that, so I can just
- 1:00:34Speaker 2: say the prize. Let's just say it this way. There's
- 1:00:37Speaker 2: over fifty thousand reasons to tune into the show tomorrow.
- 1:00:41Speaker 2: Ship A Games is gonna be announced in full tomorrow.
- 1:00:43Speaker 2: Hoop myself right here on this channel. Make sure you're
- 1:00:46Speaker 2: subscribe to the ship it Nation YouTube, hit the like,
- 1:00:49Speaker 2: get in the discord. If you're not in already, join
- 1:00:51Speaker 2: the nation. That's gonna do it for this one. Guys,
- 1:00:53Speaker 2: for Alex special guests, we appreciate you for myself, toe
- 1:00:56Speaker 2: Tech and tambo Let. Ship it
- 1:01:13Speaker 3: Amens ens