Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics / **Former COMEX and NYMEX** Silver Price and Gold Price Technical Analysis
Transcript
- 0:00Well, I don't think that we'll wake up tomorrow and Silver's
- 0:02going to be at $42.00. I think it might take a while
- 0:06for it to get there, maybe a year, year and a half, maybe two
- 0:09years, but that mega trend certainly seems like it's in in
- 0:14play once we can get silver above $30, yeah.
- 0:20Where are the prices of silver, gold and the precious metal
- 0:24mining stocks heading? Can we look to technical
- 0:27analysis for some clear clues as to what we might expect?
- 0:32Today I have a special guest, John Roland.
- 0:35He's the Senior Market Strategist at Bar Chart.
- 0:39He holds the CMT designation and we're really lucky to have him
- 0:44on the show today. John, welcome to Ron's Basement.
- 0:46Well, thank you, Ron. I appreciate it.
- 0:48I'm a big fan of basement podcasts, you know, Always a big
- 0:53fan of Waynesville. So party on, Ron.
- 0:56Waynesville. That's right.
- 0:57Well, when you're in the basement, you're a the people
- 1:00that are part of this community call themselves Basement
- 1:02Dwellers. So for now at least, you can
- 1:05consider yourself a Basement Dweller.
- 1:07I looked over your LinkedIn biography, your resume.
- 1:11You have a very impressive background.
- 1:15You were in New York, worked at some of the big major exchanges
- 1:18and now you're with bar chart like a high level technical
- 1:23analyst. Can you kind of just give us a a
- 1:25brief rundown of what you've done and maybe how you apply
- 1:28that to what you're doing today? Yeah, sure.
- 1:30I mean, I don't want to date myself, but you know, back in
- 1:341980 my first internship was I worked on the London Metal
- 1:40Exchange at LME and was working as a clerk doing the gold and
- 1:44silver R between New York and London.
- 1:47So that was how I kind of got cut my teeth and and what's
- 1:50really piqued my interest in trading futures markets.
- 1:54And then when I graduated from college, I got a job working on
- 1:58the COMEX and I worked in the silver pits briefly, a little
- 2:02bit in the gold pits. And then eventually I moved on
- 2:04to the New York Mercantile Exchange.
- 2:08And my main part of my career was in natural gas.
- 2:12But in during my time at Nymex, you know the reason why I went
- 2:16over to IMAX was actually back in the late 80s.
- 2:19If you kind of remember Ron, back when you know we started
- 2:24using platinum in catalytic converters in the price of
- 2:28platinum I think went from like you know a couple $100.00 an
- 2:32ounce to like over $1200 an ounce in a six week period.
- 2:35That was the reason why I went to the Nymex.
- 2:37So you know, my career has really been in the energies
- 2:41markets, but I was sprouted let's say in the precious metals
- 2:45market and then I came to bar chart a few years ago and it
- 2:50creates educational contact based on trading ideas and
- 2:55concepts and how you can use them.
- 2:57And and and just kind of just showcasing a lot of the nice
- 3:01features that we have on bar chart that help individuals that
- 3:05trade all different asset classes, everything from
- 3:07equities to the EFTETFS, options, currencies and futures
- 3:14markets. OK.
- 3:15And and today you're going to give us a glimpse into your
- 3:18ideas when you're looking at the gold and silver market.
- 3:22But I do want to .1 thing out here.
- 3:23Correct me if I'm wrong. You just said that you worked at
- 3:25the London Metals Exchange or did an internship there, the
- 3:29Comex and the New York exchanges as well.
- 3:33So you're a guy who has, like some keen insights into how
- 3:36these markets actually function and work.
- 3:40Yeah, exactly. You know, part of my learning
- 3:45experience was working with you know what we call commercial
- 3:49traders. So for instance like on the
- 3:51metal sides, we, you know would have been some of our miners,
- 3:55our banks, you know, hedge funds and and large speculators.
- 4:00So, yeah, you learn their behaviors and how they look in
- 4:03the market, what they see and as it translates onto our charts.
- 4:10And that's why I really believe that technical analysis is an
- 4:14important part of any kind of strategic analysis is because
- 4:21the charts kind of really show the sentiment of our market
- 4:25participants, not only just speculators, but also our
- 4:29commercial or our institutional players as well.
- 4:32Wow. So I I have a feeling that our
- 4:34viewer who's joining us right now, our fellow basement
- 4:37dweller, can see what I see. You know what you're talking
- 4:41about when you look at the gold market, for instance.
- 4:44What are you seeing right now? Any any insights there?
- 4:47Yeah. Do you mind if I share a couple
- 4:50charts? Here we go.
- 4:55Wait a minute. Let me get it up there.
- 4:58And there we go, John. There you are.
- 5:00OK. So let's just start here.
- 5:01So this is the gold futures contract, the June contract and
- 5:06this is a weekly nearby. If you're not familiar with that
- 5:09kind of terminology, if you're you know for some of your folks
- 5:12a weekly nearby chart is basically it's just chart is a
- 5:15composite of charts of the most active trading contract month at
- 5:20that time. So currently we're in the June
- 5:22contract, but what I did was a few months ago I did a what was
- 5:29called a Fibonacci extension based off of that October low
- 5:33back in 22 and you can kind of see that here.
- 5:37And what I wanted to do is I kind of wanted to see when we
- 5:40broke out of this range that we had been stuck in for quite some
- 5:43time. You know based on our Fibonacci
- 5:46extensions where we could see price target and what we can see
- 5:51here is there's two levels on the fibbed extension and the
- 5:55market fell right into that range.
- 5:57So I think that's really important for our traders in the
- 6:00room here. Understanding is that the market
- 6:02has kind of reached a very significant technical level
- 6:07based on Fibonacci's. And now what what we're seeing
- 6:10is you know the market is kind of stuck in this sideways range.
- 6:15Now let me go back to a lower time.
- 6:18Now I'm looking at a six month daily chart and let me change my
- 6:21template here. So what I'm showing here now is
- 6:27moving averages and this is a 20 day moving average of 5100 and
- 6:31200 day moving average. And I think these are really
- 6:34significant moving averages not only for equities markets but in
- 6:37this case we're looking at you know big picture longer term
- 6:41trends. And then down below here is what
- 6:43we have is called a a comparative relative strength
- 6:48and I'm comparing gold to the S&P because there is this
- 6:51correlation between what's going on in the equities market or the
- 6:55stock market and what's going on in gold market.
- 6:58And what we can see here is that up until recently the gold had
- 7:04been thrusting or this positive price movement and we are above
- 7:10the S&P. So that would tell us that it's
- 7:13outperforming. But what do we see now is that
- 7:16gold is underperforming the S&P. And so this could be a
- 7:20cautionary tale for us and what we can see in history if I kind
- 7:24of shriek up history a little bit.
- 7:27Here, let me do this. Hang on.
- 7:30We're going, we're going way back, right?
- 7:32Well, not too far, only back a couple couple years.
- 7:36But every time we get one of these thrusts and then when gold
- 7:39falls below the S&P or starts underperforming, we usually see
- 7:43gold set up in what is kind of a sideways.
- 7:46You can see it here, you can see it here.
- 7:49You know, we underperform. We're in this sideways action
- 7:52again, another big thrust here and we've we start to
- 7:55underperform the S&P. We're in this sideways action.
- 7:59So this is kind of telling me that, yeah, I think gold has had
- 8:03a really strong move. We're up almost 40% since that
- 8:06October low. But what we're seeing here now
- 8:10is maybe gold needs to, you know, consolidate here, maybe we
- 8:15need to gather some energy before it breaks out, maybe we
- 8:19need some kind of catalyst for the market to, you know, get us
- 8:26out of this range. And so here's another piece of
- 8:29information that I'm looking at. And these are two technical
- 8:33analysis. One is called Relative Strength
- 8:35index and it's basically kind of like your speedometer in your
- 8:38car just tells you how fast price is moving relative to
- 8:42itself. And then this is a a MACD or
- 8:46moving average convergence divergent.
- 8:48This kind of just tells us the momentum of the market.
- 8:51Now they are both looking very positive to me.
- 8:54In other words, the RSI is above 50.
- 8:56That's a strong sign, but you can see that we've come from
- 8:59what would be considered an overbought condition.
- 9:03And again probably looking more like a consolidation here, we
- 9:07can see our Mac DS again, we're in positive territory.
- 9:12That's a good sign that we're in a bull market.
- 9:15But you know our momentum is in the negative.
- 9:19So that's kind of telling us that the market's just lost its
- 9:22edge, right. It's it's not really
- 9:24accelerating here. So again I think market needs to
- 9:27probably digest some of this price action that we've seen you
- 9:31know since the beginning of the year.
- 9:32And then what we can do is look at from a risk to reward ratio
- 9:38well where can we measure a breakout or where we might say,
- 9:43hey this is where the price, you know if it gets below there then
- 9:49you know maybe you know conditions are are starting to
- 9:52change a little bit. Can I ask you a quick question
- 9:55John, I I hear, I hear people talk about like consolidation
- 9:59phase and and and you didn't say that but that's maybe what I was
- 10:03hearing. Does that mean that essentially
- 10:08like you know that that we've had a big move we need to
- 10:11consolidate, Does that really mean like so that the people
- 10:14that maybe want to sell can sell and that we can form a new base
- 10:19from which we could go higher or am I wrong?
- 10:22On that, yeah, exactly, exactly. That's really price momentum or
- 10:28markets go through phases of impulses and corrections.
- 10:32So ups and downs, right and trending, right.
- 10:36And you've probably heard the expression trends your friends
- 10:39to the bend to the end, but that only happens about 25% of the
- 10:43time, maybe 30% of the time. Most of the time markets are in
- 10:46what we consider a sideways or trend less action.
- 10:50And yes, what usually happens is you reach a level where you
- 10:55might have sellers who have been waiting to sell and they've
- 10:59created what is called a level of supply.
- 11:01In other words, they're bringing shares or in this case could be
- 11:07you know, actual physical gold to the market and say, hey, I'm,
- 11:10I think this price is a good price, right?
- 11:13And then on the other side then you have, you know your bulls or
- 11:16your buyers will say, well you know if price falls to this
- 11:19level, I feel that that this is a good area to buy.
- 11:23And So what happens is then you can get this kind of this range
- 11:26where sellers will be up here and buyers will be down there
- 11:29and then you get like your day traders and your intraday or
- 11:33weekly speculators will kind of just push price back and forth.
- 11:36And that is what you would consult call you know a
- 11:39consolidation range? I have.
- 11:42I have one more question for you John.
- 11:43I'm sorry to keep interrupting you fascinating to me.
- 11:47So when when let's talk about gold for a second.
- 11:49Obviously we've been at, you know, new all time highs.
- 11:53How, how important is it when something hits a new all time
- 11:57high that let's say obviously there's people who are thinking,
- 12:02well if gold ever hits 2700, I'm going to sell, if gold hits 2800
- 12:07I'm going to sell. But there aren't people.
- 12:09There's not like a massive group of people who bought gold at
- 12:142800 who are saying, hey if gold ever hits 2800, I want to get my
- 12:19money back. Does that does that play in?
- 12:21I mean is that component of a new all time high?
- 12:24Did that when you think about all time highs that have been
- 12:27created and then when you come back and you test them then yeah
- 12:32that would be something a level of support or resistance.
- 12:36Again think about it. But again what you're saying is
- 12:39an we're at an all time high and I I love how when folks ask me
- 12:44questions that lets me transition to to the next
- 12:47segment. But here you know again I'm
- 12:49looking at a chart here that let me go out to let's say a 20 year
- 12:53chart. Again we we don't have any
- 12:57reference points, we don't have any values above here, right.
- 13:01There's no previous all time. Yes, we just recently made an
- 13:05all time high. I think it was around 24424,
- 13:10four hundred, 440 something like that.
- 13:12Yeah. But the point being is yeah,
- 13:14there might be some folks who say, oh, I missed out last time
- 13:17and I might be a seller. But this is what's really
- 13:19fascinating about futures markets and why I like using
- 13:24futures markets to help me to find where prices could go
- 13:30because futures markets can, can help us predict where futures,
- 13:34where prices can go. So I'm what I'm doing here now
- 13:37is I'm going to move away from our June contract and I'm going
- 13:40to go to futures contract prices of all the gold futures
- 13:45contracts that are available for us to trade.
- 13:48And you can see that if I go out to like 2029, you know gold
- 13:54prices based on the futures markets are at $2700 already.
- 13:58So that's something that you need to be aware of.
- 14:01So there's one futures contract that I really like to watch when
- 14:04I look at gold and that's the December contract from year to
- 14:08year. I just think that that is a very
- 14:10dominant market. You know it's the end of the
- 14:12year. That's kind of how where your
- 14:14commercial traders, you could probably tell me you know when
- 14:18they do their balance sheets or their their financial
- 14:21statements, they kind of use that end of the year price right
- 14:24is to to define you know what the value of the reserves are.
- 14:28So the December contract has a lot of importance.
- 14:31So let's do this, Let's go and look under the December contract
- 14:35and what I'm going to do is I'm going to pull up the the chart
- 14:38for that December contract and this is kind of what I was
- 14:45saying before was here I'm in a contract specific chart means
- 14:50I'm only looking at the price information that is related to
- 14:52this December contract and we've kind of broken this trend.
- 14:55I don't care how you draw a trend line.
- 14:58You know, trend lines are kind of subjective, you know, either
- 15:01this one here or that one. But we both can agree based on
- 15:04what we see here that this trend that we saw since about February
- 15:09is probably broken, right? And now we're in this kind of
- 15:12this sideways action. Do you see that?
- 15:15Absolutely right. Now we do see an all time high
- 15:19in the December contract that is around $2500 and I did notice
- 15:23and behind you you got a little bear there.
- 15:25I'm guessing that's kind of where you're guessing when the
- 15:27market is going to go right is? Just so you know, his blindfold
- 15:31comes off when we hit 2500. So.
- 15:34He was is the gold bear responsible for what was the
- 15:38bear market in gold? So that's the story behind.
- 15:40It's kind of like punishment, right?
- 15:42And and and I have twin 12 year old daughters that you know,
- 15:45play into this whole situation as well.
- 15:48That'd be. That'd be fun to see that.
- 15:50So let's go back to this. So here I have identified a
- 15:53recent high in the December contract and so this blue line
- 15:57here represents the closing price on that day and that's
- 16:002443, right. So again, this information that
- 16:06we're looking at is unique or specific to the December
- 16:08contract. We have a $2500 all time high
- 16:12and we have a recent high of around 244340.
- 16:18Now let's reverse our analysis and I'm going to go back to the
- 16:22nearby contract, in other words the most active contract month.
- 16:27And you know, notice how my trend lines have gotten a little
- 16:31bit away because the June contract is a lot cheaper than
- 16:35the December contract, but the price values are not.
- 16:40And you can see that that circle where I identified that most
- 16:44recent high in December contract is our all time high for our
- 16:49June contract. Isn't that kind of fascinating
- 16:51how these two things come together?
- 16:54So what does this mean? Well, this means that if we
- 16:57believe that gold prices are going to go higher, right?
- 17:02And we think about where this value is to current gold prices,
- 17:07right. It's almost $100 away, but for
- 17:10the December contract it's only about $2530 away.
- 17:15So we need to see the December futures contract take out that
- 17:19recent high at 24120 four 43 and that was set up for us to come
- 17:25and retest this all time high. And again, what you're kind of
- 17:29saying is maybe then at that point we might see sellers, but
- 17:33you also might get FOMO, right? You get those who say, hey, I've
- 17:36wanted to buy gold and I've been waiting and waiting, waiting to
- 17:39get a pullback and now it's breaking out of the range and
- 17:42now I think it's going to go higher.
- 17:44So this would be one of those kind of those lines in the sand
- 17:47that we could say, hey, this is where I'd be a buyer in gold or
- 17:52a confirmation that we're going to go, go higher.
- 17:55If you're looking to buy gold, silver, or platinum, do yourself
- 17:58a favor and check out Pimbex, the online precious metals
- 18:02bullion dealer and sponsor of Ron's Basement.
- 18:06I was a happy customer before they offered to support the
- 18:09channel. You'll find they have the best
- 18:12prices, quality, and service. I think Pimbex is best and you
- 18:17will too. And be sure to tell him that
- 18:19you're from Ron's basement. So if it feels like we're in a
- 18:23bit of a a holding pattern right now with the gold price, is that
- 18:28a, is that a safe assessment? Yeah, I think that is a very
- 18:31safe assessment, right. And we need some kind of
- 18:34catalyst, right. We don't know what that catalyst
- 18:36is going to be. I'm sure we could spend hours of
- 18:39talking about the different fundamental aspects of what is
- 18:42driving price of gold now. But yeah, I think if you think
- 18:46of look at what the market is doing in the broader markets,
- 18:52not only just the the gold market, we're kind of in a
- 18:55doldrum. So even on in the, you know, in
- 18:57the equities markets, right, we're kind of in, in a sideways
- 19:01trending action. But again that's gold, right.
- 19:06But there's other precious metals, there's some precious
- 19:09metals I think that are doing a lot better.
- 19:10So if you want to talk about silver, I think.
- 19:14Yeah, what I was going to say what about silver?
- 19:17Because I think we've seen some interesting action.
- 19:21One thing I've I've noticed just recently is while gold does feel
- 19:25like it's in a consolidation or a holding pattern that silver
- 19:30is, it just feels like to me over the last couple weeks maybe
- 19:35exhibiting a a little more a moderate level of strength, but
- 19:41that that's just kind of what I'm saying.
- 19:42You're the one who who who knows the data.
- 19:46Yeah, let's, I mean, let's, let's look, look, look at
- 19:48silver. So, OK, put that chart back up.
- 19:53So here's silver. OK.
- 19:54And So what we see with silver, again, I'm in a daily chart here
- 19:58looking over the last six months, we'll see a little bit
- 20:01of different story, right. And we see that we're still
- 20:04holding this up trend, not that like we saw in gold.
- 20:08And then let's look at our Rs Is and our back DS.
- 20:12We're in the Mac D The momentum is crossed.
- 20:16Here and we're still in positive territory.
- 20:19So this momentum cross is actually a bullish sign and this
- 20:24is a sign that we're in a very strong trend and that that
- 20:28momentum should continue. Remember gold we were we were in
- 20:32positive territory but we were still had a negative histogram.
- 20:35Here we're getting a positive crossover and our RSI here is
- 20:40now getting back towards that where we could think maybe
- 20:46overbought. Now overbought is a general
- 20:48term, I would not say just because it's overbought, it's an
- 20:51opportunity to sell. It's just telling you that your
- 20:54your price is moving very fast. But there is one thing about RSI
- 20:58that you can look for is in strong bull markets the RSI will
- 21:03shift. Actually the overbought and
- 21:05oversold conditions will shift and typically you will not see
- 21:11the RSI value fall below 40. This is a sign of strength.
- 21:16And you can see in the last two corrections or dips in the
- 21:20silver market, our RSI did hold above 40.
- 21:24So this is another piece of information that is showing us
- 21:29that the momentum and the strength and the speed of silver
- 21:32is a lot stronger than it is in gold.
- 21:36And that could be for a lot of different reasons.
- 21:39And I think I want to kind of mention about the gold silver
- 21:42ratio, but let me just give you one more piece of information in
- 21:45terms of silver. So let's look at silver in a
- 21:51really big picture, right. And again, we're looking at
- 21:56going back to almost the hunt days here.
- 21:58This is back in the 1970s. Back when?
- 22:01Back when you were in London. Yeah.
- 22:04Well, not not in the late 70s, but yeah, certainly it was an
- 22:10active time. I think it was only about 7,
- 22:12seven to 10 years old back then. But but but you talked about
- 22:20chart patterns, right. And what we see here is kind of,
- 22:24let me make this a little bit smaller in time frame is this is
- 22:29kind of what we call a head and shoulders, right.
- 22:32I think you mentioned to me and when before we came and we
- 22:35talked about cup and handles. You know, a lot of times a cup
- 22:38and handle it will have a inverted head and shoulders
- 22:41embedded in it and that's kind of what we're seeing here,
- 22:44right. So you have the left shoulder,
- 22:46the head and the right shoulder. And so in in technical analysis,
- 22:52head and shoulders when you break the neckline which is
- 22:55where you in this case would be where the resistance is, a real
- 22:59head and shoulder would be your support line.
- 23:02Then what you can do is you can measure a move based on where
- 23:08the head is to the neckline now depending on how you define a
- 23:12neckline, right. So I did a more aggressive
- 23:15neckline here which kind of lines up all these highs and you
- 23:19know this kind of monthly high that we're in right now.
- 23:24So that would be here. But if we say let's say all time
- 23:27highs or we look at highs over let's say the last few years,
- 23:31you know and we're going back until you know 21 here 20
- 23:36September 2020, you know that's around $30.00.
- 23:41But if we project that out right then that breakout would put us
- 23:47in and I wrote this down this morning, did my research for you
- 23:51around 4128 and to 4275. That would be a a target.
- 23:58You could say if again this is part of technical analysis, if
- 24:03we can break above $30, if this momentum continues.
- 24:07And if you look at this chart here, you got three nice really
- 24:10strong green candles which is kind of telling me that the
- 24:14market right is you know the momentum of this one is really
- 24:18catching, you know continuing to you know moving the in the right
- 24:24direction certainly for silver. And and then and then you have
- 24:27the fundamental facts supporting the silver price as well that
- 24:34could help possibly even accentuate what what happens.
- 24:37I guess the fundamentals are the, I don't want to say the
- 24:40backbone, but obviously just the basic supply demand story for
- 24:45Silver right now it, excuse me, it's impressive.
- 24:50Yeah, one of the fundamentals that I know of and one of the
- 24:54things I do on Wednesdays, I have free webinars.
- 24:56This Wednesday we're going to do a webinar on investing on the
- 25:00power grid. And what we'll discover in that
- 25:03webinar is that solar energy is going to be one of the the key
- 25:07components of renewables that is going to help supplant, you
- 25:12know, your carbon based power source.
- 25:15And silver is used in, you know, in the cells, the photo
- 25:20photoelectric cells, I forget what they're called
- 25:22photovoltaic. Thank you very much.
- 25:24That's OK. Yeah.
- 25:26So silver is part of that. So there is the very strong
- 25:30fundamental demand for silver. Now there's also, you know
- 25:34silver also has a lot of other interesting properties.
- 25:37It also has antimicrobial and fresh water is definitely going
- 25:43to be something that in the future, especially in 3rd world
- 25:47countries, that's going to be very important.
- 25:50So there's a lot of research about how incorporating silver
- 25:54into like filtration systems that it helps to clean water.
- 25:58So there's a lot of aspects to silver in terms of industrial
- 26:03demand that I think is a mega trend for for silver.
- 26:08But let's look at this again in this term of this head and
- 26:10shoulders. I mean this Head and Shoulders
- 26:12took four years to be completed. Again, we still haven't broken
- 26:18about $30.00, so I don't think that we'll wake up tomorrow.
- 26:21And so that's going to be at $42.00.
- 26:23I think it might take a while for it to get there.
- 26:26Maybe a year, year and a half, maybe two years, but that mega
- 26:31trend certainly seems like it's in in play once we can get
- 26:34silver above $30, yeah. First, Mining Gold is a
- 26:37development company advancing two of the largest gold projects
- 26:41in Canada, Spring Pole in Ontario and Du Parquet, located
- 26:46in Quebec. Each already has 5 million
- 26:49ounces of gold reserves, but exploration initiatives are
- 26:53under way at both projects to find even more gold.
- 26:58First mining is well financed, has zero debt and owns an
- 27:02interest in four additional Canadian gold development
- 27:05projects. So, so we have a A cup and
- 27:10handle on a long term basis within the silver market, but
- 27:15then there's actually an inverse head and shoulders which is
- 27:19bullish embedded within the handle.
- 27:22Is that is that a safe assessment?
- 27:25It could be, yes. It could be that this could be
- 27:27the handle of a much larger time frame, but I think this is more
- 27:33of an inverted head and shoulders at a bigger time
- 27:38frame. What I would be looking for is
- 27:40maybe a cup and handle in your smaller time frame.
- 27:46Again, I've gone back to your daily here, Here's your six
- 27:50month daily and let's do this. Let's kind of make this so it's
- 27:53nice and clear for everybody. Can you can you sometimes have
- 27:55cup and handles embedded within cup and handles is.
- 27:58That for sure right the. Double the double the double
- 28:02insulated cup I. Guess, yeah, I mean you kind of
- 28:04get, here's your kind of your, you know, your cup, right, And
- 28:08there's your handle, right. So yeah, so you can see that.
- 28:12And that's very common what's called fractal recognition,
- 28:15where you'll see something in a higher time frame and then when
- 28:18you go down to the lower timeframe, you'll see that same
- 28:20pattern. You know the prices will be
- 28:22different, but the pattern will be the same.
- 28:24That's called a fractal recognition.
- 28:26Interesting, interesting. What?
- 28:28What what do you see when you compare silver to gold?
- 28:33Do you look at the silver to gold ratio or gold to silver
- 28:36ratio at all, John? Yeah, I think that's a great
- 28:39tool. Again, another piece of
- 28:41information where you can kind of compare, let's say the value
- 28:46of gold versus silver and say, well is 1 stronger or is it
- 28:51increasing similar to like a comparison I showed you to the
- 28:55S&P. And I think there's some kind of
- 28:59historic values that we can kind of look in.
- 29:02So let me show you that. So here is, and this is from
- 29:05goldprice.org. So this is the gold, silver
- 29:09ratio and this goes back again back to the 70s again when I
- 29:14started on the floor in silver, you know 50 gold to silver ratio
- 29:21was a large amount and you kind of you could trade off of that.
- 29:25When he got above 50 usually in the market would pull back gold
- 29:30prices, would pull back relative to silver prices.
- 29:33But that you can see since you know the turn of the century
- 29:37that ratio has changed. But if I drew a line of best
- 29:41fit, in other words where would the value be that was kind of a
- 29:45medium value you can kind of see here around 70, right. 70 acted
- 29:50as a level of support in the 80s and early 90s.
- 29:55Then it became an area of resistance and then it became an
- 30:00area of support and then an area of resistance and so on and so
- 30:03on. So understanding that and the
- 30:07fact that we see silver now accelerating and gold is kind of
- 30:11trading sideways. So maybe what we might see is
- 30:14this ratio which is currently around 83 or so fall back into
- 30:21that kind of that line of fit around 70.
- 30:24And so remember that number we had for the December contract,
- 30:28the futures contract that was 2443.
- 30:32If we use the 70 ratio right, that projects silver to $34.90.
- 30:43Now the current price I believe is around $28.00.
- 30:45Is that correct? Yes, Yep, about 2850.
- 30:49So let's go back to our silver chart and again let's look at
- 30:55this in terms of our big picture and that little dot there, I
- 31:01don't know if you can see that there, right there and maybe
- 31:05I'll do this, Let's do this. Here it is.
- 31:11I drew drew it here. That's around $35, thirty 490
- 31:15ish area. And if we look at that value and
- 31:22we look to the left, here's where that thought or that
- 31:27concept where you were saying hey this is where sellers were
- 31:31last time. This is those past former all
- 31:35time highs or recent highs or areas where our sellers are
- 31:39saying hey at $35 I want to sell my silver.
- 31:43So this really to me I think is a very significant level in
- 31:48terms of the gold, the silver ratio, but also in when we do an
- 31:53introspective, just silver itself, these are some very
- 31:56significant highs. And I think this number is a lot
- 32:01more manageable or at least attainable for silver in the
- 32:04near term, let's say the next six months to the end of the
- 32:07year. Instead of that, you know that
- 32:10grandiose neckline breakout up to about $42.00.
- 32:17So you think $35 let's say in like a six month time frame is
- 32:21more realistic possible than that big massive breakout up to
- 32:26the the $40? Right.
- 32:28So again, you don't, you know, we don't transport ourselves
- 32:32from one place to another. We got to, you know, you got to
- 32:35go through, you know, different states or whatever, right.
- 32:38So this would be an area where I would, if I was trading silver
- 32:44and I was long, I brought bought this $30 breakout, that would be
- 32:48my objective, that'd be my target and then I can manage my
- 32:51risk that way of saying if that's my target, how much risk
- 32:53do I want to take to get that potential target right.
- 32:57Interesting. Interesting.
- 33:00Anything else about Silver specifically that you want to
- 33:03talk about? No, I just think that again, you
- 33:09know, I'm just laying on a bullish scenario for you.
- 33:13Sure, But we still need to, you know, get above, you know,
- 33:18$30.00. So what's the bearish scenario
- 33:21or what's the worst case scenario?
- 33:23Well, again, you know, if we break this trend line, one of
- 33:28the technical tools I love is Bollinger Bands.
- 33:30What I love about Bollinger Bands is it kind of gives you
- 33:33this playing field of probability, I call it.
- 33:37And when we look at silver here, right, we are in the upper half
- 33:45of the Bollinger Bands. Our Bollinger Bands are kind of
- 33:48come in a little bit and this could be a sign that we're about
- 33:51to expand volatility or increase our Bollinger Bands.
- 33:55But notice that the mean here is around 2779 and that is now kind
- 34:02of correlating with our trend line.
- 34:05So I think as a risk management tool there is if price got below
- 34:10this level or broke this trend line that would be a concern to
- 34:14me and that maybe what we'd see is price fall to the outer lower
- 34:19band which would be around 26, looks like 35 area.
- 34:23Again let's look at our moving averages.
- 34:26Notice how our 20 day moving average falls in line right with
- 34:33this kind of this trend line and this area.
- 34:35So again I think you can kind of manage your risk that way saying
- 34:38hey we're says case scenario price rolls over.
- 34:42You know we really want to see market hold there.
- 34:45But I do like the 50 day moving average and you can see that
- 34:47that 50 day moving average is right on the lower end of our
- 34:52Bollinger. And so today the 50 day moving
- 34:54average is at 2680. And if we look at that in terms
- 34:59of our Bollinger Bands, you know it's 2630, you know, 30 cents,
- 35:03$0.50 difference there. But again, I love the fact that
- 35:07moving averages and our Bollinger Bands are kind of
- 35:11showing us the same values. This is what we call the
- 35:13confluence of evidence and that's why technical analysis,
- 35:17this is an important aspect to, you know, when we try to decide
- 35:21if we're going to do something or we're going to trade or how
- 35:24we defined our risk in terms of, you know, trading.
- 35:29Yeah, yeah. You know, the other component to
- 35:32the precious metals market would be the precious metal mining
- 35:37stocks. Do you ever look at the mining
- 35:39stocks and the relationship between the mining equities and
- 35:45let's say the gold price or the silver price?
- 35:47Because a lot of people are saying when they're looking at
- 35:50certain ratios that there's a there's a gap, maybe an
- 35:53opportunity gap, possibly between, let's say gold being,
- 35:58you know, near all time highs, but that the miners maybe
- 36:02haven't really caught up yet. Do you do you see anything when
- 36:05you look at those relationships? Yeah, I do and we can, we can
- 36:10look at that. But this is where I need to ask
- 36:12you a question. So when I started in the
- 36:14business, you know, I was taught or the commercials that I dealt
- 36:18with were telling me that they were hedging something and we're
- 36:21talking about large major, you know the barracks and the new
- 36:25mods like those they were hedging like 50% of their
- 36:30production. But that trend has dropped over
- 36:34the last few years, hasn't it? And that a lot of the junior
- 36:37miners don't hedge at all, do they?
- 36:39No, no, no. I mean actually to me it's, it's
- 36:43more of a rarity to hear. I think the last company that I
- 36:47heard like in the mid size sector, Equinox Gold, the Ross
- 36:51Beatty as the Chairman of that company that they're building a
- 36:55massive new mine up in up in Canada, the Greenstone Mine and
- 37:00they hedged, but I think it was only like 10 or 15% of their
- 37:05production going out for like 9 months.
- 37:07It wasn't significant. So yes, I would confirm what you
- 37:12what you're saying that it feels like really the amount of
- 37:15hedging going on in the mining sector now I honestly don't
- 37:20feel, I don't I follow more the mid, mid size and junior sector.
- 37:25But I can say with a pretty high level of confidence, you know,
- 37:29confirm what you what you confirm your observation that
- 37:32the big guys there's just not as much hedging going on now as
- 37:34there was. So my question would probably be
- 37:38and and then get and this is an open end question is as we reach
- 37:41let's say that 2500 level, do we think that some of these miners
- 37:47will step in and do some hedging or if they're going to expand
- 37:50productions, how do they raise capital, you know or maybe this
- 37:54is a dynamic of you know how these folks raise capital.
- 37:58Maybe in the old days it was more in the public market and
- 38:01they needed to hedge to get money from banks so that they
- 38:04can maybe now the investment is coming through the private
- 38:07sector right or private equity. So that could just be a dynamic
- 38:10that is in you know how they raise money, how they raise
- 38:15capital for increasing the production.
- 38:18I think another thing that to consider also is that the
- 38:23precious metals mining sector generally speaking went through
- 38:27a 10 year period where there was a a laser focus on cleaning up
- 38:33the balance sheets. So these companies don't
- 38:37generally speaking have much less debt today as opposed to 10
- 38:43or fifth. They really learned a tough
- 38:44lesson I think it was back in 2011 where they were all
- 38:47levering up and doing major acquisitions and that it has,
- 38:53has has flipped 180°. Now you hear talk of you know
- 38:57Fortress balance sheets and you know I I think a lot of these
- 39:02companies at $2500 gold are are are printing money right.
- 39:08You know, so the need to finance could be, you know, could be not
- 39:15not as great as what maybe what we saw ten years ago.
- 39:19Well, that would make a lot of sense, right, Because I, I don't
- 39:21know what the production cost is, but I've heard anywhere from
- 39:24$850 to $1200, you know, an ounce, right.
- 39:30So even if even in a conservative at $1500 you you
- 39:35like you said they're, they're just printing money.
- 39:37So that would be, you know, they don't need to raise money, they
- 39:39can generate it, you know, positive cash flow, right?
- 39:43A lot, A lot of them are actually paying off.
- 39:45That I know. Like the company well, one
- 39:48sponsors my channel, Fortuna Silver.
- 39:52They paid off like, oh, like almost 120 million in debt, 40
- 39:58million during each of the previous.
- 40:00And they already had very little debt.
- 40:02So a lot of the companies are. Are are deploying this excess
- 40:07cash flow that they're generating right now to actually
- 40:10pay off debt, which is making the industry much more I guess
- 40:17robust from a balance sheet perspective.
- 40:20But the problem not to get off into the weeds here and I think
- 40:24this is even a bigger problem in the silver mining industry is
- 40:29that as a result of this focus to pay off debt, they're
- 40:34neglecting their pipelines, there's not been the extent of
- 40:38exploration and development work within that sector.
- 40:42So I hear this all the time in particular to silver that you
- 40:46know, if we get $40 silver, $35 silver like you talked about
- 40:51earlier, it's not like there's a big robust pipeline of new
- 40:55projects that are going to be available.
- 40:57You know it's not like you just turn a switch and and and start
- 41:01producing more silver. I think there could be some
- 41:03minor modifications at existing operations, but in terms of a
- 41:08whole big new source of silver coming onto the market in
- 41:11particular and it's true with gold as well, it's just not
- 41:15there because the investments have been, I mean people what
- 41:19what the silver community will say and I think I would say it
- 41:23as well as the artificially low prices that we've had in silver.
- 41:28I mean silver miners are lucky to be breaking even at 2223
- 41:33dollars silver and we were in that range for quite a long
- 41:36period of time. It's just kind of recently here
- 41:38that I think the silver miners are starting to actually
- 41:41generate a profit. Starting to benefit, but to your
- 41:44point is now we have, we have leaner companies and then that
- 41:48makes those stocks more attractive, right.
- 41:51And then we can come and do that analysis.
- 41:54So let's do this real quickly here.
- 41:56So here's the gold miners ETF, the G, the GDX.
- 42:03So again remember gold we said was kind of in the sideways
- 42:06action and you know we're waiting for that kind of the
- 42:08catalyst and you can see that right here's the gold miners,
- 42:11but they are doing a little bit better in comparison to the S&P.
- 42:16We are above the 20 day moving average.
- 42:19We didn't see in gold the futures contract and we do see a
- 42:22nice strong up, so being 50 day moving average.
- 42:24So these are all nice positive things.
- 42:27But the caveat here, Ron, to me is we have two tops, right?
- 42:33One here and one here. And this could be a double top
- 42:38formation or you know, maybe, you know, if we micromanage this
- 42:42one, we could say this could be a cup and handle.
- 42:45But the point that I want to make here is let's add a
- 42:48different analysis here. I'm going to go down here into
- 42:51my templates and I'm going to add volume and this is kind of
- 42:55where I'm concerned with the gold miner stocks is we had this
- 43:00large surge in volume when we made this high and that's
- 43:03usually a good sign. But large volumes at tops and
- 43:05bottoms usually is a a sign of potential reversal in trend.
- 43:11And we did get a little bit of of sideways action.
- 43:14And what has volume been doing since then as we've been rising
- 43:18here? Well, volume has been falling.
- 43:20Now that necessarily is not a bad thing, but it's not a good
- 43:24thing, right. We really want to see volume
- 43:26increasing in a rising trend or in a dominant trend.
- 43:31So we're not getting that volume confirmation.
- 43:35Now if we broke above here and we saw a large volume increase,
- 43:41right, money flowing into gold ETFs as people who are chasing,
- 43:46you know, the price of gold, then I think that would be a
- 43:48good sign. So I'm a little concerned in
- 43:52terms of the gold mines per SE, right?
- 43:56Yeah. Can I ask you a quick question?
- 43:58Yeah, sure. As we as we see a rising price
- 44:02for the GDX for the gold miners, but a a tapering off on the
- 44:07volume, that means we have fewer buyers but even fewer sellers.
- 44:14Just means there's less enthusiasm to the market.
- 44:18In other words, the market participants feel comfortable
- 44:24with price or that they don't feel the need to come into the
- 44:29market and or there's just no, I guess you could say volume is
- 44:37kind of the fuel and energy that drives price, right.
- 44:41So without volume to confirm our price, this is kind of a a
- 44:46warning sign to us that we might see, you know, a bit of a
- 44:50correction in it. But again, if we look at these,
- 44:52these stocks that are in this, this sector, let me do that.
- 45:00And so I can go down here and look at constituents and there
- 45:05are the difference. You know, there's all the
- 45:07different gold miners that are in here and you can see some of
- 45:10the ones that are present here. But let's do this.
- 45:17I'm going to Newmont and I want to see who is in the gold and
- 45:22silver ores sector. And so this is kind of where I
- 45:29think what what you're saying and what I'm also saying is I
- 45:34I'm not familiar with these miners.
- 45:36So this is really your expertise, but I'm guessing that
- 45:40a lot of these are probably mixed miners, right.
- 45:43They're doing gold and silver or there are they're silver miners
- 45:47and so you can see that year to date or they're weighted alphas
- 45:51of those that have done really well where your, you know your
- 45:55new monts and there's your. Barrick, right?
- 45:59Copper copper's a big copper's a big component, kind of driving
- 46:06some of the precious metals mining companies right now as
- 46:09well. Right.
- 46:10So who who's the, the performers, right.
- 46:13You know, maybe those miners that have a mixed basket of
- 46:19production, right? Gold, silver, copper, plank.
- 46:23Right. Yes.
- 46:24Yep. Exactly.
- 46:26And so if I was an investor and I wanted to look for
- 46:30opportunities in those sectors, I think what I would do is
- 46:34instead of looking at the ETF, so we'd look at the performers
- 46:38that are in those sectors to say, hey, let's see which ones
- 46:42are outperforming inside of that sector.
- 46:44And then I would go and that's kind of a comparative relative
- 46:47strength analysis as you go from you know big picture and you
- 46:51kind of drill down and you know it was kind of a top to bottom a
- 46:55market comparison. Interesting, interesting.
- 46:58I know that the the Huey which is the, I think it's called the
- 47:03ARCA Gold Bug Index. The Huey to Gold price ratio is
- 47:08still at what a lot of people think are are is like historic
- 47:14low levels around point 1.12 that again that's that index as
- 47:20compared to the to the gold price and and that there could
- 47:23be you know I mean there were times in the past but it seemed
- 47:28like the average was more around .3 or .4 and then at some
- 47:33periods 1015 years ago it was even higher around .6.
- 47:37So does it feel at all to you as you analyze let's say gold,
- 47:42silver in the miners that that silver and gold.
- 47:46I'm sorry that silver and the miners potentially have more of
- 47:52an opportunity as we move into the next six months to a year to
- 47:56play catch up with gold if gold kind of holds where it is right
- 48:00now. I I think so, yeah.
- 48:02I think you can add up all those pieces that we just, yeah, laid
- 48:05out the value of the physical price, right, healthy balance
- 48:11sheet, right. And then you know how does the
- 48:15average investor right. You know, we look at the
- 48:19different sectors of the market, How does the, you know, Joe
- 48:23Public invest the market, How does, you know, a money manager
- 48:27invest, right. Are they going to go into the
- 48:29futures market? Probably not, right.
- 48:31Are they going to go and buy bullion bars, right, If they're
- 48:36going to buy, you know, coins, probably not, right.
- 48:40They're going to invest through either the ETFs or these
- 48:46individual stocks that are represent the ETF.
- 48:50So yeah, I think those those markets will probably have a
- 48:54greater upside potential. But again, you know you have to
- 48:59be realistic, you have to look at you know all time highs or
- 49:03you know recent highs and you know you got to do that math in
- 49:07terms of risk to reward ratios to tell you, hey, yes, this
- 49:11looks like a good, a good trading opportunity.
- 49:13Again, one that I can do is I can just look at these, I can go
- 49:17into our charts, our flip charts here.
- 49:19And I mean this when we talk about we looked at silver, we
- 49:23looked at gold, right. This looks like a much more
- 49:25dynamic trend, right, much more positive.
- 49:28Let's hear this pic. I don't know if you can pull
- 49:30this up here. Let me pull you up there.
- 49:32We. Go yeah, yeah this is this is
- 49:34Tras Trasco mines right. I mean that is right.
- 49:39It's it's actually breaking out today right now this is a six
- 49:42month chart. I don't know, I'm again, I
- 49:44don't, I don't follow these on a regular basis, but here's a a
- 49:48three-year chart, right. We're we're breaking out of
- 49:51major resistance right where we kind of right we we consolidated
- 49:58we waited for that energy and and now we're getting that
- 50:01energy now again. Hey, will you, will you do me a
- 50:05favor? If you can?
- 50:07Can you look at FSM at Fortune? I'm just curious what you would
- 50:10see. I don't know if that's possible.
- 50:12You're live as we're recording. FSM right here, this one.
- 50:16Frank's Frank Sarah Maria Fortuna Silver.
- 50:21Yeah. So six months, right?
- 50:23We've had that. We've just went to that period
- 50:25of consolidation, Range Valve, we've just broken out.
- 50:29Now one of the tools that I'll use for technical analysis is I
- 50:34want to confirm breakouts by a certain number or a value or a
- 50:38percentage. And one of the tools that we can
- 50:39look at, and I don't want to go weedy again, weedy here, but
- 50:42there's something called the average to range.
- 50:45So the average to range for Fortuna is $0.22 over the last
- 50:5020 days. So when we break out of a range,
- 50:54in other words a level of resistance, I want to see the
- 50:58price go at least a 1 1/2 or 2X of my ATR.
- 51:03So in this case, we could say somewhere around, let's say
- 51:06$0.35 to, you know, 40-4 cents, right?
- 51:11OK, so where was this recent high?
- 51:13Well, that recent high here was at $4.92 and so if we added 35
- 51:21to $0.40 to that, that would put us in around $5.30.
- 51:26So yes, it's broken out, but in terms of confirming that
- 51:30breakout, it's not there yet. OK.
- 51:33I think you need to get above, let's say, this five and a
- 51:36quarter. Now we're only looking into the
- 51:37short term here. We're looking at six months.
- 51:40So let's look at this on a weekly basis and notice what
- 51:44you're you're fighting, right? You're fighting that old
- 51:48resistance here and notice where that is, right?
- 51:51That resistance is around $5.55, but you know right there.
- 51:57So I think in terms of confirming a breakout of this
- 52:02sideways action, big picture technical analysis, I'm going to
- 52:07wait. If I was an investor on a
- 52:09breakout here, I'd be waiting for, let's say, I would like to
- 52:12see a weekly close above, let's say 5:00 and 4:45.
- 52:19What did we say, 42, four cents. So with it at 5:36, so five and
- 52:24a quarter to 536. Well, we're close there, right?
- 52:27We're not that far away. Go Fortuna.
- 52:32Hey John, this has been absolutely great.
- 52:35I just noticed we've been on for almost an hour.
- 52:37So on behalf of myself and our viewer, you have shared a just
- 52:43incredible amount of information.
- 52:45I know I've learned a lot during this.
- 52:48I want to pull up your your bar chart website and give you an
- 52:53opportunity to tell people if they want to learn more about
- 52:58you hopefully what on the screen right now.
- 53:00Let me double check that Everyone sees bar chart, yeah.
- 53:05I think you had it. I had it.
- 53:06Here we go. Yeah, there we go.
- 53:11Let me throw something in. I for the I honest for the first
- 53:14time this morning, I went out to this website and I found it
- 53:19very, very informative and I actually thought that the the
- 53:25news articles that were on this site were trying to think the
- 53:29best way to say it. You know, usually I go to Yahoo
- 53:32Finance, but there's a lot of fluff.
- 53:34I would say on Yahoo Finance that that there were just some
- 53:37really good pertinent articles. I actually used one of them in a
- 53:41live stream that I did earlier today.
- 53:43Awesome. Well yeah if you you see we just
- 53:45we're just talking about copper mining stocks here but you
- 53:48Scroll down there I think go Scroll down a little bit
- 53:50farther. I think there's a we do a
- 53:53analysis a fundamental analysis between Newmont and Berwick.
- 53:57So yeah so yeah I agree with you.
- 54:00So what I do is I I I create a lot of context.
- 54:03If you click on on the the header bars up there where it
- 54:06says learn. Learn, learn, learn.
- 54:08There it is. All the way at the right and
- 54:11then you see where it says bar chart webinars first column
- 54:15upcoming. So what I usually do is I create
- 54:20content based on trading ideas. These are free webinars and this
- 54:28is the one that we're going to do this this Wednesday.
- 54:30We're looking at for investment opportunities in American Power
- 54:33Grid. But do we do technical analysis
- 54:36or do we do a little fundamentals?
- 54:37We do look at options, we look at all users and these are all
- 54:40free to observe. We also, these will end up on
- 54:45our YouTube site, on a bar chart YouTube site.
- 54:48So you can watch them there. But also to really get deep into
- 54:55the bar chart website, you need to be a subscriber.
- 55:00Now you can be a free subscriber, which is really
- 55:02nice, but we also offer an opportunity to try out some of
- 55:06our advanced features and we have two categories, right, But
- 55:11you can do that for 30 days, a free trial.
- 55:16So in terms of the trading run, that is a risk free trade, OK,
- 55:21so. Gotcha, gotcha in the in the
- 55:24webinars here are free for people to to to to to attend and
- 55:30I would imagine kind of get a feel for what for what bar chart
- 55:34has to offer is and bar chart would be helpful for someone who
- 55:39likes to trade the markets. Is that a?
- 55:42Is that a safe? Yeah, I think I think there's
- 55:44something for everybody from, you know, just the small
- 55:48individual investor, you know, if you're just a kind of a buy
- 55:52and hold trader to somebody who is a little bit more dynamic,
- 55:57you know, maybe trading futures markets, momentum traders, swing
- 56:01traders. So I think there's a little bit
- 56:02of options traders. It's a little bit of information
- 56:06or a lot of data. Sometimes I'm not just being how
- 56:09much data that we provide and for a monthly subscription and
- 56:14again it's like one visit to Starbucks so put down the coffee
- 56:20and and and start checking this out you.
- 56:24Know, brew your brew, brew your own coffee and and make some
- 56:27serious money. Save the 10 bucks and spend it
- 56:30for a nice subscription, yeah? Yeah, yeah.
- 56:33Well, John, thank you. I will put links to the bar
- 56:35chart website and then anything else that you send me that you
- 56:39want me to put links to at the top of the description.
- 56:41This has been great and I'll I'll try to get on your schedule
- 56:46again maybe in six weeks or so as things transpire and we can
- 56:51you know keep everybody up to date in terms of what's going on
- 56:54from a technical analysis perspective in the market.
- 56:57Because you know, the, the people that have joined us
- 56:59today, I can tell you are gold and silver and precious metal
- 57:03mining stock enthusiasts. I tend to focus more on the
- 57:07fundamental side. So to have a guy like you who's
- 57:10an expert at analyzing these charts has been a real treat for
- 57:15me and for all of our viewers. So thank you.
- 57:17I appreciate the opportunity to talk to your folks.
- 57:20Ron and I look forward to coming back and spending more time in
- 57:25in Ron's basement. That's right.
- 57:28And you never know, John, next time you come, that blindfold
- 57:30might be off that bear. Hey, I think you need a foosball
- 57:33table or something. Maybe air hockey is.
- 57:36There's a ping pong table behind me, so.
- 57:38Where I can't see it. Now that's the bear.
- 57:41He's right. You can see the there.
- 57:42There's the one of the legs right below the pin back spot.
- 57:45So it looks more like a storage shed than it is a ping pong
- 57:48table, yeah? It is.
- 57:50It is so. All right, John.
- 57:52Thanks. We'll see you soon.
- 57:53All right. Thanks so much.