Latest / Rice on the Radio / Fantasy Extravaganza: Helping You Dominate Your League

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Fantasy Extravaganza: Helping You Dominate Your League · Rice on the Radio

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I guess there's only one way to find out.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Let's do it to it right 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: All engines running, lift off.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: We have a lift off, alright, alright and welcome to episode 27.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: The fantasy extravaganza of rice on the mics.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I am your host, your hype man and your bad influence at the auction table.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: If you're new, we run this show like a live room, big energy for the crowd.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: But a direct line to you in those earbuds listening to me if you're on the treadmill in traffic or sneaking this in at work, yeah, I'm talking to you in those earbuds.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Listening to me If you're on the treadmill in traffic or sneaking this in at work, yeah, I'm talking to you.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Here's the North Star today, the guiding light, if you will.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Big fantasy versus the house.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Everybody and their mothers got takes, but the house, the house has prices.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: The lines, the props, the win totals.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Those aren't vibes and guesstimates, those are risk-adjusted truths.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: So if you want that Marty McFly almanac edge, you don't ignore Vegas, you weaponize it.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: So ADP and Vegas disagree.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Always follow the money.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: The theme for this episode is going to be draft roles, not arguments.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I'll pay for certainty but I'll stash for chaos.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: So here's the grocery list.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: First quarterbacks and not the usual welcome to WatchMojo.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Here's the top 12 snooze fest.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: We're going tiers with intent, who you can pony up for, who you can steal.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: The top 12 snooze fest.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: We're going tears with intent, who you can pony up for, who you can steal, and a couple QB2s with true top five ceilings.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Then we'll hit wide receivers, some mid-round hammers, followed by some injuries and suspensions that are quietly clearing early season runways.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Mike Evans, managers, I see you grinning ear to ear.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I'll be mixing in some do not drafts and some must haves as they become relevant throughout the episode.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: From there the spice rack opens up.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: We got hot takes and the Vegas lens, cortland Sutton's monster line and the case for Jamar Chase chasing history.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: See what I did there and then check in on some guys against their numbers that the books just really can't afford to get wrong.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I'll show you how to let props nudge your ranks and how win totals break ties on draft night.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: After that we're on to running backs and strategy the meat and potatoes where titles are won, hero running back versus zero, wide receiver strategies and what it actually looks like in real bills.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: I'm also holding committee court for Washington, jacksonville and the Jets, and every dollar is a player.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So we'll talk auction strats too, the 50-20 rule and how to use that little $2 nomination trick you guys used to clown me for until it won you a league.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Then we'll finish up with a sweet treat from the candy aisle.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Rookies and Sleepers what everybody loves.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: This is where we hoard the stuff that the algorithm hasn't caught up to yet and line up some deep cuts.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Ambiguous rooms are where leagues are won, so we're shopping there on purpose.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Rookies now, sleepers later.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Score in September, spike in December.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Oh, and one more thing this season I'm starting a segment called the Receipts Corner.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: You drop your boldest call, I'll drop mine, and we live to see who tells the tale.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: If yours hits, I'm reading mine and we live to see who tells the tale.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: If yours hits, I'm reading it on air with your app Today's homework.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Tell me that one player you'll overpay for Name and round.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, I want the truth too.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I'll reach for Purdy in the seventh.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I'm shoving Sutton to the fifth.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Say it with your chest.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: All right, take a deep breath.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I'm going to work the room, but I'm going to coach you through your draft while I do it.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: This is the episode where you find your edge.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: What separates you from the guys in your league drafting two defenses?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Let's grab the steering wheel.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: The leaders go first.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I'm talking quarterbacks who's worth it and who you can let someone else worry about.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: In the words of Danger Russ, let's ride Tranquility Base here.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: The Eagle has landed Quarterbacks.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: The captain of the ship in real life, but not always the make or break when it comes to fantasy.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Here's the mission.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Don't pay a name tax unless you're buying a superpower.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: The theme Draft roles, not arguments, and I'm about to save you two rounds of value Tier one guys.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: I call them the cheat codes Josh Allen, lamar Jackson, jaden Daniels and Jalen Hurts.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: If you pay up here, you're buying a weekly floor and rushing touchdown installation.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Right, lamar gave us midweek scare, foot, got stepped on.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: He's fine, so take a breath there.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: And nothing has changed from last year at all.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: So if you're buying Derrick Henry, he's an ageless wonder and Lamar has gotten hungrier after last year at all.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: So if you're buying, derrick Henry is an ageless wonder and Lamar has gotten hungrier after last year, you should have no worries about drafting him whatsoever.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Allen and Hertz well, they're pretty much souped up.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Goal line backs in quarterback numbers, strong running games on both squads and talented enough wide receivers that the defense is not going to know who they're going to have to.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Game plan for Daniels.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Well, daniels is electric but he's a little pricey.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: So there's a potential sophomore slump on the horizon.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Just be a little cautious, but don't be afraid to draft him with the upper echelon guys either.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Make sure you double-check your league scoring system and just make sure the juice is worth the squeeze.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: But the rule of thumb if one of these guys slips past market price in your room, you break the glass and you jump all over them.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: You may be passing on a pretty decent running back to take one of these guys, or even a pretty decent receiver, but if you of these guys, or even pretty decent receiver, but if you're willing to pay the price for him, you're basically replacing that running back two that you would have drafted with a quarterback one and a running back three.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Now tier two these are the pocket kings and a sprinkle of legs.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: That's Joe Burrow, patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Burrow is my favorite, at cost at least.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: If he stays healthy, he belongs in that tier one row with the other guys, but he doesn't always stay healthy Volume and elite receivers and a hungry three-down running back and a huge arm.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: He led the league in attempts last year.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Since his identity it's not changing at all either, because the defense is still terrible and that basically builds for late-game comebacks and hurling the ball 60 times a game for JB.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Take him, don't look back Now, say what you want, but Mahomes is still Mahomes, okay, just understand that the top six fantasy quarterback ceiling hasn't exactly been automatic for him lately, because Casey likes to run the ball a little more now.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: But they came out slow last year and honestly I think they rested on their laurels knowing that they'd win the AFC West, no problem.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Something tells me, after getting embarrassed in the Super Bowl last year and this being Kelsey's retirement tour, I have an inkling that they're going to come out swinging and remind everybody who they are.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Baker is the last in this tier and honestly, he's a value if the room insists on letting him slide to.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: You had a career year on all fronts and following the trends of previous year.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: It usually doesn't happen two years in a row, so bake in some regression, but do not be afraid to draft him if it's for the right price.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Now tier three the sweet spot guys.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: That's Bo, nix, kyler Murray, dak Prescott, justin Fields, brock Purdy.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: This is where you bully your league.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: These are the guys you grab when no one else is paying attention and all of a sudden they look up and they finish top five in the quarterbacks.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: So nicks is coming off a qb6 stretch last year between weeks 5 and 18 and has now established a serious rapport with courtland sutton, who is a true wide receiver one.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: It's another year in sean payton's offense and they added evan ingram, rj Harvey, so that should open up plenty of passing lanes for a second-year player.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: The slight worry is that Denver's defense is really good, so there's a possibility of game script.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: They go up, the defense clamps down and Bo doesn't throw no mo.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Kyler, kyler Murray, volatility, but has Konami legs.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Trey McBride has fully established himself as a serious weapon and Marvin Harrison Jr has put on some weight in the offseason and is trying to really embrace that bully wide receiver.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: One role, not to mention James Conner, is still a solid running back that teams are going to have to worry about.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: The slight worry with Kyler is you're just going to have to be ready for a dip in points when that new call of duty comes out.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Dak Prescott might be the best value of any quarterback this year, and I mean that seriously, in the years that he's stayed healthy.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Fantasy-wise at least, he is the reincarnation of Tony Romo and is a true top five quarterback, adding Pickens to line up across from Lamb.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Well, to put it bluntly, I mean, they can't double team both of them right, and there really is no running game to speak of either, and I fully expect Dak to throw the ball at least 50 times games.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: So for a 10th round or later.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Honestly, it simply can't be beat.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: The caveat with him is the o-line is nowhere near what it used to be, so I would expect him holding onto the ball and expect some sacks, which could unfortunately lead to some injuries.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Brock Purdy is this year's market's most disrespected poster child.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: He was QB 14 even with all the injuries last year, so you can draft him at a price this year.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: That's like undeniable.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: If CMC returns to form and Pirosol shapes into what he looks like he's going to be, there's so much great value to be had with purdy now.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: The downside besides pierce all the wide receiver depth is lacking, to say the least, and purdy has been known to shit the bed from time to time, to put it lightly.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: And the last name in this tier is my boy, justin Fields.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not being a homer, his ceiling belongs in tier one, but in reality there are going to be some games that are just complete stinkers.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: But the reports of Brees Hall lining up in the slot and linking back up with his favorite college receiver and adding in a revamped powerhouse O-line he could easily rush for 600-plus yards.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Plus Vegas has his rushing touchdowns over under at 6.5.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: So he's going to sniff the end zone at least a couple times.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I'm willing to take the risk in at least a couple times.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: I'm willing to take the risk in some late rounds of drafts with him.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Now, tier four these are the dart boards with upside Jared Goff, caleb Williams, drake, may, jordan Love, trevor Lawrence, jj McCarthy, cj Stroud, bryce Young.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: By the way, tier 4, all good, solid quarterbacks.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: This is the hit the green number or you don't pay the cover, aka the roulette wheel guys.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: May and McCarthy are the standouts of this group and Bryce Young, as a bargain bin QB2, could have some QB1 weeks in his range if his late season accuracy from last year sticks and Tetretto and McMillan hoovers in targets like he's supposed to.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: So those are them.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: These are three QB2s with true top five potential.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: I'm going to start with Justin Fields.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: As I mentioned already, rushing is the skeleton key here.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: We've already seen the run-heavy ceiling.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Now he's got no Russell Wilson looking over his shoulder and a defensive-minded head coach with a run-centric roster.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Yes, I admit the Jets passing pie chart is pretty small outside Garrett Wilson, but that's fine.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: The gamble I'm taking on him is designed runs and broken plays for explosive runs.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: If he plays 17, he can finish top five without throwing 35 touchdowns.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: It's definitely possible.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Next on that list is Drake May.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Drake May is a guy that I've always been really big on since college.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: He's the rare young gun who already put together a QB 14 season last year on a broken offense.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: Now he gets an adult on line.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: He gets a real veteran wide receiver one in Stephon Diggs and they drafted Travion Henderson and is primed to beat out Ramond J Stevenson for easy yak yards and checkdowns all day.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: On top of it, he has what analysts like to call deceptive speed and runs more than people think.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Enough to smooth out the bad weeks at least.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Not to mention the schedule, for the AFC East is the easiest of all the other divisions.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: So the market still prices him like a hope and a dream, but I'm pricing him like a plan.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Last but not least, jj McCarthy.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: He is the cheapest ticket to the fireworks show this year.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: He's indoors for 40% of the season.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: He has an elite play caller offense, not to mention you get Justin Jefferson, tj Hodgson and Jordan Anderson as training wheels to help him along.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: We just watched this staff turn Sam Darnold from a QB 31 into a top 10 finish, after doing what no quarterback does anymore and sitting for a year to learn McCarthy's deep ball and under pressure composure from Michigan translates so clean into this system you draft him as your QB too and, honestly, you accept the possibility that you might never mention the rest of the year If you wait at quarterback.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Take two from the fields May McCarthy and party group One will hit when they do.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: You look like you planned it all along.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: So now that we got the tears out of the way, how do you draft these guys?
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: What's the tactics?
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: What do we do for our roster, our roster?
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Well, here's how it goes.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: When you decide to pay up in single quarterback leagues, you only pay tier one value if it falls to you, or you build like a fragile early core that like some boomer bust guys and you need that weekly floor super flex.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Slash two quarterback leagues that's a different animal.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: You try your best to get one of the tier, one or two guys and then, while everybody else is panicking and there's a run on quarterbacks, you just stack top tier running backs, receivers, tight ends, the best of the best, and you fill them in where you can.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Then around the ninth or tenth you snag a high upside guy and, worst case, you drop them and grab somebody else.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Stacks without the tax.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Everyone loves the quarterback wide receiver combo, but don't chase the wide out premiums just to stack.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Let stacks come to you.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Burrow and chase yeah, that's great if you can work it out.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: But Purdy and Pearsall, at the cost you get them for, might land you two high-end skill players.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Same thing with May and Diggs.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: It's a mid-round luxury.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Fields and Garrett it's viable if the board cooperates.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: And auction guardrails, auction strategies don't let a bidding war make you emotional.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: If Lamar clears your preset number by $3, whatever, let someone else buy the parade float.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Who cares?
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: With that money you didn't spend you can buy two 20-point starters for the change change.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: So now to close it out, two guys on my list that are do not draft guys and it's nothing against them.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I actually really like both of them as a player and I think they're great for their teams.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: But fantasy wise, stay away.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Let them be somebody else's problem.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Jared goff at a top 12 price is a trap.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: There's zero rushing, the oc change.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: They play a lot of games outdoor compared to last year and a touchdown rate that's just begging for regression.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Like a like Amon Ra, I like Sam Laporta, but I just stay away for Jared Goff.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Other one on that list is Cale Williams.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: He's another one.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I love the talent.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to do big things in this league, but right now, for fantasy, I'm price sensitive, to say the least.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Look, if your room pushes him to like the mid rounds or something, just let him.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Let somebody reach for him.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Whatever.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: They're high on Ben Johnson, they're high on all the.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Let him.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I'd rather have Purdy May McCarthy two, three rounds later.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: Okay, build a better team.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Let them take Caleb.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Don't worry about him.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's it.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Your quarterback plan is now a menu, not just a coin flip.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: If you miss the elites, you're not waiting, you're targeting two darts with some real top five paths.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: But if you do pay up, make it count.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Remember, the theme of today is don't draft arguments, draft roles.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Let's slide over to wide receivers, which there is an abundance of, and ADP is slow to adjust to injuries and suspensions.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: You can buy week one volume before the room even notices what you did.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Pierce all truthers, warm up your vocal cords.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: You are on the clock.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Ah, yes, the divas, the wide receivers, the deepest aisle in the grocery store, which is exactly why most people get lost in it.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: But here's how we're shopping tonight.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: We don't chase logos, we don't go for the high-end brands, we chase the roles.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: First, free air, yard share, red zone, looks Depth at.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: This position means you can wait.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: If you're waiting with some intention, zero wide receiver truthers, you're about to feel seen, and everyone else.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: Well, you're leaving with a mid-round blueprint that you can use for some serious value.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: So, zero wide receiver strategy, but with a steering wheel.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Let's say you open up running back quarterback tight end.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Well, here is the exact wide receiver pocket that you should be living in.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: So take your cart aisle by aisle, see everything that's on sale and then throw everything right in this basket Round five wide receiver ones at a wide receiver two price.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: First on the list is DK Metcalf.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Drafters are severely underpricing the move to Pittsburgh.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: He is now the only meaningful alpha in the Steelers passing game and Rodgers, even with his age, notoriously funnels his wide receiver one double-digit targets every game.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: So that's volume plus end zone equity in round five.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: That can't be beat.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Next on the list Xavier Worthy.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Did you know?
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Last year he was the wide receiver 10 during fantasy playoffs and posted a .6 fantasy points per route ran, not ball caught per route ran.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: So with Rasheed Rice's suspension and Mahomes' top field stretching ability and second chance play ability, he's a great addition to your roster.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Set it.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Take him, don't worry about
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: it.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Round six this is where the immediate volume comes in.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: My boy, tetratoa McMillan.
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: I've been on him all season.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: I even commended Carolina for taking him in my draft episode earlier in the year.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: He's got the rookie tag with a veteran target share.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: He's a camp leader and he's got a second year quarterback trying to make a name for himself.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Easily going to see about 120 plus targets and at six foot five I'm gonna.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the gamble that at least 20 of those targets are going to be red zone targets, so buy the first read usage, not the bad branding of
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: carolina.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Next on the list is Calvin Ridley, easily one of my favorite mid-round snags this year.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: He had great splits with a semi-competent quarterback play last year and now it's number one overall draft pick, cam Ward, who is a leader amongst men.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: He has a rocket of an arm and Ridley sees less target competition.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: That's clean.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Wide receiver two work who will behave like a wide receiver one most weeks.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Okay, now we're on to round seven and eight.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: These are kind of the ceiling cap guys.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Still very good, but you know it's getting late
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: early.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Jordan Addison one of the league's best touchdown rates.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Through two seasons he's got huge home run ability, being across from Justin Jefferson.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Now his three-game suspension is a little bit of a problem, but it also bakes in a discount.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: So if he falls to you in the right place, snag him, bury him on the bench and week four, when he drops 17, you can DM me with a thank you card.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, stefan Diggs older, sure, best days behind him maybe, but he got in shape.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: He avoided the pup list and is the clear wide receiver one in an offense that actually added a little bit of infrastructure.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Drake May has great accuracy and he's got no one else to throw to.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: He's going to feed him the ball.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: So you're buying targets here.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: You're not really buying the nostalgia.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: So when people point at you and say, oh, diggs, whatever, just know he's going to get about eight to ten targets a
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: game.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Next on the list, jameson Williams Kind of falls into that Jordan Addison category.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: And yes, I've been lukewarm, to say the least, on Jared Goff.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: He doesn't offer any rushing ability and his TD percentage from last year is begging for some regression, but it's a good thing.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not talking about drafting Jared Goff here.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about snagging a wide receiver that finished with 1,000-plus yards and seven touchdowns.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: He delivered three top six weeks and from week 10 on he was a wide receiver, 10.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: J-mo is still a big value at the right number and their new offensive coordinator circled him and said this is a breakout year for him.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: So if your league snoozes and he slides, take the speed and live with the
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: volatility.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Now we get into kind of sketchy, kind of not rounds nine, round 10, but it's also some free week one volume, right.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: So Matthew Golden, green Bay they finally, after 23 years spent a first round pick on a wide receiver and, yes, that is a real stat.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: So that alone should tell you exactly how they feel about him.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: But if you need more convincing, sure, in college he was a force at Houston and then when he transferred to Texas, he became the man at Texas.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: So in a wide receiver room that's filled with guys who are really good but seems like no one can step up and claim the wide receiver role, golden has the ability to be that guy and I'm actually really banking on Golden becoming the golden boy of Green Bay.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: I think him and Jordan Love are going to build a great relationship and you're going to be really
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: happy.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: You snagged him late.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Now, from one golden boy to the other, ricky Pearsall Shanahan said that him and Demarcus Robinson were the two most consistent wide receivers in camp.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Well, demarcus Robinson is suspended for three games and Brandon Ayuk is out until probably week six We'll see and Juwan Jennings is battling a calf injury.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: This kid got shot before camp last year and an inch to the left he was dead.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: He still made it back by week
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: five.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: I'll draft him on that fact alone.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Pierce Hall is the man.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be a great pickup for your team.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Now the lottery tickets.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: The late, oh god, I gotta fill the spot.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Who do I take picks?
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: Well, don't waste that, that's
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: value.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: First on the list darnell mooney, from atlanta.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: He was quietly wide receiver 31 last year, free volume while everyone is staring at drake london.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Yes, he could put up 20 or he could put up two, but for an 11th rounder, 12th rounder, he's a hell of a bench filler.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Same thing goes for Marvin Mims Weeks, 13 to 18.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: Last year he was wide receiver 22.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: And that was only on 41% of routes.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: If that number comes up, the efficiency can definitely come up
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: too.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Cedric Tillman, cleveland.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: God who knows what's going on at quarterback in Cleveland?
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: They don't even know what's going on at quarterback in Cleveland, but after last year, when they traded, cooper Tillman actually beat out Jerry Judy in targets per route run and yards per route run.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: So again, these are late gambles, but late gamble.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: High upside, worst case, he's waiver wire fodder, who cares?
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: So, with that being said, we have some injury and some news from the offseason.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: Aka, pay attention and you'll win in September.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, like I just mentioned, demarcus Robinson suspended three games.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: They just traded for Sky Moore from Kansas City.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: Decent player, but the route that you want to take is Pearsall.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: While Ayuk ramps up in Jennings' heels, pearsall is textbook with vacancy targets.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Will come In Tampa Bay, jalen McMillan, straight to the IR landed on his neck weird, see ya, middle
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: season.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Chris Godwin is still on the pup.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: So translation Mike Evans, the target.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: Hog, this isn't just like a consolidation thing either.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Hog, this isn't just like a consolidation thing either.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: It's a record chase script for the big man.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: So McMillan out and Godwin
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: ramping.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Tampa has every incentive to force feed Mike Evans early to keep the offense one moving and to keep his receiving streak alive, which they proved last year.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: They have no problem doing whatsoever.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: If he does it again this year, he breaks Jerry Rice's consecutive 1,000-yard receiving record.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Now, I don't know if you know this.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: It's not every day you get to chase Jerry Rice for a record.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: So yeah, they're 100% going to feed him.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: And I'm already on Mike Evans over for the season.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Vegas has him set at 950 yards over under Way, over Hammer the over.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: So he's not only a safe wide receiver too, he's a weekly volume anchor With the narrative wind at his back.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: They're going to feed him like crazy.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Minnesota anchor with the narrative wind at his back, they're gonna feed him like
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: crazy.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Justin Jefferson is back in practice, limited but he's.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: He's gonna play week one.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: And with Jordan Addison, suspension.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: That basically equals easy targets.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Just a funnel to JJ don't be a big brain, don't try and galaxy brain it.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: If you take JJ at the top, set it and forget it.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: It is what it is
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: right.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: Washington Terry McCorin a little scary, scary Terry is scaring the drafters.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: He wants a contract.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: He's holding out.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: There's backfield drama.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Debo's gadget touches will be a thing, I guess, but that's so volatile and the price at which he's going, I'm going to stay away.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I might stay away from Terry too.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Unless something gets settled before the season starts, I think I'm out on Terry
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: too.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: The Saints still don't know who's going to start week one.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Week one is in a week, just for the record.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Look, even if some form of stability happens to break up the clouds and dissipate the fog, I'm out.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I'm out on all Saints receivers.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: I'm out on Chris Olave.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: I am out on Rashid Shahid.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: The only player I might touch is Kamara, just for check down central, and even that it's like at the right discount, I'm good on anything Saints Remember when ADP and Vegas disagree, follow the money.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: The house doesn't get rich by throwing random things out
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: there.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Now some make or break profiles here.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Drake, london, high pick here, late first round, early second, mid second, maybe even he already gave you the breakout with Panics.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: He showed you the blueprint with panics.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Last year the target share spiked up 39 percent in just a small sample size.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: So look, even if that sustains, or even if it goes down to you know, 31, 32 percent, I think you're looking at a top five wide out with drake london, london.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: He is a pure talent.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: I just think nobody's been able to get him the ball.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: The other one we're looking at here JSN, jackson, smith and Jigba 100 catches, 1,100 yards and six touchdowns last year with a sluggish start.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: Now, no Metcalf and say what you want.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold is capable enough to feed the ball to him.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Okay and honestly, with how the Seahawks look and how I project them to come out this year, I'm banking that they're going to be chasing most games, which leads to a great positive game script for
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: JSN.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Now on the other end of it, some guys I'm just flat out on Some do not draft, I'm good, be somebody else's problem.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Have fun with them guys.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: And first on that list, tyreek Hill.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Look the age curve yards after carry decline.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: The deep ball inefficiency from last year.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: Not to mention Tua seems to have really soured on him.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: After his comments at the end of the season last year he was like I'm out, I'm out of here.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Tua came flat out in a press conference and said yeah, you know we're gonna have some relationships to rebuild
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: here.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: And not to mention Vegas.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Again, always go by Vegas.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: His receiving line is sketchy low.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: They're kind of begging you to take it.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: The price is the problem with Tariq.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Okay, later rounds if he slips, sure, but early to mid round two, I'm out, no thanks.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: And then Travis Hunter.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: You know, sorry, two-way roll, great, cool, can't wait to watch it.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Hope he does well, but fantasy-wise, that caps your wide receiver share, that caps your snap count and he can be the amazing football player.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: But this ain't college, no more man.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Double the snaps is double the injury risk.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: It's just.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: I think I'm good on travis hunter.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: I hope for the best for him.
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: I prove me wrong, please, but I think I'm out all right, that's
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: it.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: You got your cart, everything is loaded up.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: It's time to hit checkout.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Don't walk into the wide receiver aisle in panic.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Buy the rolls, buy the vacancies and let Vegas be your friend for once.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: Let them be the tiebreaker when your gut and ADP are arguing with each other.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: If you hear yourself debating on two players and the clock is starting to tick down and you don't know who to take, that's your cue to remember that Uncle Rice told you to draft the one with the cleaner path to eight to ten targets a
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: week.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Up next, we turned up the flame a little bit.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: Let's start cooking this meal.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: We got hot takes and we got the Vegas lens on things.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: We're going to stack bold on bold, then sanity.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Check some of the players against their numbers the house is using to separate the studs from the duds.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Stay tuned.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Time to turn up the heat.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, it's time to start cooking this meal.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Welcome to hot takes and the Vegas
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Lens.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: This is the part of the show where we season the stew and then we let the house tell us how spicy is actually edible.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: So these are my receipts.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: If they hit, I'm insufferable, and I told you so.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: If they miss, well, we were just, you know, pressure testing the market.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: I'm kidding Mostly, but yeah, in the name of football and bar food, we will start with the hot wings fight here.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: So let's plate this properly.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: We're going to start warm, move on to some sweat and then hit it with the ghost pepper and between each one we'll wipe off our brow a little bit and cross-check the logic so you know you can draft with the upside without burning the
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: board.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: First on the list, our medium hot wing, our medium take, cortland Sutton goes for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: So why that works Well, bo Nix, year two red zone trust, that's already been established.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: He had 10 touchdowns two years ago and eight touchdowns last year and he's the first read for the whole season.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: He's their number one.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: The jump is going to be the yardage, but that's a bet on efficiency and the rapport between the two players.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Need weekly touchdown equity in the middle rounds.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Yep, he's the hat that you can wear all fall
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: Hotter.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: You say Hotter, okay, well, all right.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Hot wing, hotter, okay, well, all right.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Hot wing, uh, no, bears, wide receiver finishes top 36 in half point.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Ppr per game.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: It's not a talent take, it's a, it's a math take.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: Look, caleb's arm is real, but 2024's time to throw and pressure to sack rates weren't friendly, to say it nicely.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: And Ben Johnson, new head coach.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: He tends to throttle pass rate when the run game is going.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Add in Colson, loveland and Luther Burden just sucking up targets over the middle.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: There's just too many mounts and not enough cake to feed a top 36 per game.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Even hotter, you say the hottest you can handle, okay.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: Well, how about this?
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Jamar Chase becomes the first 2,000-yard wide receiver in NFL history.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: And you're saying, holy shit, that's so
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: hot.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Well, cincinnati's identity is pass, pass, pass and check down, pass on fourth down, coupled with a defense that literally couldn't stop a nosebleed to quote Bart Scott Scott and invites shootouts, and a quarterback that is not afraid of shootouts.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Chase scales with volume, he wins at every depth and he uh, he creates yards after the catch like the old pipes screensaver.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: Any of my older heads understand that one 17 healthy games from Burrow and Chase with high game totals all year long.
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: If things break the right way, mathematically we are within striking distance of seeing something crazy.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, that is the champagne shelf, that is the top, top shelf.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: We acknowledge the odds and are embracing the ceiling.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: If you're going to shoot big, you might as well shoot for something ridiculous, right?
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: So now that the irrational has been thrown out there, let's get to the Vegas side of things the props that nudge the rankings we dreamed, but now we price right.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: So these are the tickets that I'm going to personally be placing and how they should tilt your draft board of who you're thinking about drafting.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: So you should always think of props as guide rails for your rankings.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: The Vegas is again not in the business of losing money.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: The house always wins.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: This is.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Every line that they put out is perfectly curated.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Like every year, you say, oh god, they had it at 55 and a half and he hit 54.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: Like how does vegas know?
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: You know that's always the line.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: So these are some of the props that I love and you should acknowledge some of those props, not just mine.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: You should do your own homework on guys you want to draft.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: If they have a suspiciously low prop for the season, vegas usually knows so
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: anyway.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: Anyway, first off, the uh, the veterans anchors.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm going to call this the veteran anchor list.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Mike Evans, mike Evans, over under for the season is 950 yards and I'm taking over.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: We talked about it already, with McMillan going to the IR and Godwin having to ramp back up and the record-chasing script.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: That is an easy equation for being force-fed early.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: So we already like this.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: This and consolidation strengthens it.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: He's a wide receiver too, with wide receiver one weeks
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: incoming.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Next Travis Kelsey over 700 yards.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: His number is 700 yards.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: I know he's old and I know he's getting there.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: Whatever Mahomes safety valve hasn't sniffed under 800 yards in his career, even on down years, and I understand that manage for January is a real thing.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: But 701 is a super beatable number.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: Next, sam Laporta, keeping it in the tight ends list 675 and a half.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: I'm going over.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Look, regression Still lands north of the line.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Possession roll does the heavy lifting.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: He'll be fine.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: There might be a little regression but he'll be okay.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Now how about some tutters?
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Everybody loves a good touchdown, right.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Jr Six and a half touchdowns on the season Over
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Eight.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Last year as an underused, quote-unquote rookie got stronger.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Gonna have even more red zone targets over cd lamb seven and a half touchdowns.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: It's actually good value in this.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: It's a cautious over, but there's good value in this.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: He's only done it once but dallas this year.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you you're gonna be amazed at how much d but Dallas this year.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you, you're going to be amazed at how much Dallas throws this year.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: They don't have a running game to speak of.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: Eight is a fair expectation.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: If he lands on seven, he lands on seven, but I like my chances with eight.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: Cortland Sutton six and a half touchdowns way over.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, you just heard it, we just called for 10.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: So if you like the role and you like the quarterback and you like him, six and a half is a joke Hammer it
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: Yardage how about yardages?
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Everybody loves little receiving yards.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: Bijan Robinson 375 receiving yards on the season that's insane.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: Over.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: He's got usage, versatility and design touches.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: With a semi-rookie quarterback, there is going to be plenty of checkdowns when Penix can't make the read Now.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: On the other hand though, jameer Gibbs 425 receiving yards I'm going under.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Look, I love the player.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: He deserves to be drafted super high up.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: But distribution Amon Ra, jameson Williams, sam Laporta, the OC shift all this is going to play a role in his usage.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Honestly, I kind of see him actually rushing more out of the backfield early and with like an occasional check down or like a swing
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: pass.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: George Pickens 900 receiving yards over, even if he's a little bit of a head case.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: He has an expanded route tree.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: He has great hands and, honestly, a lot of the early focus is going to be on CD.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: So he's going to be opening the post.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: He's going to be open over the middle.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: He's going to have a big, big target share going his way to start and then eventually teams are going to go okay, we've got to start giving Pickens his respect and then that's going to open it up for CD.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: But he's going to have a nice cushion and he'll probably go over later in the season.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: It might be close but I'm going over Justin Jefferson 1,250 receiving yards, 1,250 receiving yards Over.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Look, don't overthink it.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: He's got elite hands.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: He's an elite separator and has proven that it doesn't matter who the quarterback is.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: If he has a fully healthy season, 1,400 yards are
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: incoming.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you Marvin Harrison Jr.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: I'm big on him.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: If you couldn't tell by how much I've been gassing him up this whole podcast, his number is 975 receiving yards on the year we're going over.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: So again, leaning into the wide receiver one role, uh, weight gain to bully and create even more separation, and he is still a big play waiting to happen.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: Talent cashes it in
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: 100.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: Now to the other side, the portfolio paradox, I guess, AKA the things that it doesn't make sense, but I bet it happens right.
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: So, same offense, trey McBride, another one, a monster tight end, four and a half touchdowns I'm actually going to go under.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: So the past couple years he's had like three, two and like one, I think one in his rookie year.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: He's a chain mover, that's his role.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: But when it gets down into the red zone the pie chart is Kyler on a broken play, james Conner up the middle or Marvin Harrison Jr one-on-one outside.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: That's what it is, so I'm going under four and a half.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: Or Marvin Harrison Jr 101 outside, that's what it is, so I'm going under four and a half.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Maybe he lands a four.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Look, I got him in one of my leagues.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: I hope I'm wrong, but I'm going
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: under.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: Jamar Chase 1,300 receiving yards Under.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, I know, I know the atomic take that I just said five minutes ago.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: This is a median versus a ceiling thing.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, the fantasy plan bakes in sky high, unbelievable upside.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Right, the hard-earned money.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Respects variance targets, competition and injuries.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: Okay, surprise, adults can hold two ideas at the same
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: time.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Bet Jamar Chase to have 2,000 receiving yards and it's probably plus, I don't know 1,500.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: But under 1,300 yards on the season is plus money, and over is like minus 180.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: So get some plus money, why not, right?
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: Okay?
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: So those are the player prop bets that I like, but let's zoom out a little more, okay?
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: And just to go on record and keep myself accountable for all you good folks listening out there, I'm going to do my best.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Mike Francesa impression and speed round some win total over-unders, okay.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm just kidding, I'm not going to do that the whole time.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Also, if player props guide micro decisions, team win totals should guide macro tie
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: breaks.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: When your tiers are like flat, you don't know who to pick.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: Like, if you're choosing between two wide receiver threes and you really just don't know, let the higher win total be the one of the team you take.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: So anyway, all right, let's just I'm going to rattle these through, right?
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Okay so, afc East Bills 11.5, over.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: They win the division.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: Run away with it sucks.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Dolphins 7.5, under.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: They stink.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Patriots 7.5, also no bet.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: They might be good, they might not.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: That might land right on number I'm out.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: Jets 5.5, little homer over.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: Schedule's easy.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: It's going to be ugly, but functional.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: They probably get to
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: six.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Afc North the toughest division in the land in my opinion.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Ravens 11 and a half.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: I'm going under, but just by the half.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: They land at 11.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: Bengals nine and a half.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go over.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: They get to 10.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: Same thing they land just above the number and I'm actually I think I'm going to take them to win the division.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: Plus 280 is good
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: value.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Browns under 4.5.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: They don't know what the hell they're doing.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Steelers 8.5.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: This is the tough one with Rodgers, who knows We'll see 8.5.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go no bet.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: They could land on eight.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: They could land on nine.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: It's a coin flip,
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: right.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Afc South Texans eight and a half.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go over.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Colts seven and a half.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: I'm going under.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, anthony Richardson Good luck.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: Jags seven and a half no bet.
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards the under, but I'm not willing to put money.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know they could get to eight.
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: This division is terrible.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Somebody always beats somebody in overtime or there's a tie or something.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: Titans this is the spicy one.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: Titans are five and a half.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the over and I'm actually taking them to win this division.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: They're plus 800.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: And worst to first always happens in the
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: NFL.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Afc West Broncoscos nine and a half.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the over.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: They land right at 10.
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: Chiefs 10 and a half over.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Don't bet against Andy Reid.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Raiders under.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: They fight hard, they lose a lot of close games.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: They probably land at six and the Chargers big upset under the what if team?
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: What if this guy stayed healthy?
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: What if they did it under?
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: They probably landed eight wins under.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Now nfc excuse me nfc did you know in the nfc east for the last 15, not one team has won the division in back-to-back years.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: So sorry, eagles, you're more than likely out, starting with the Cowboys seven and a half, big over
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: Over.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: I think they win the division at like 10 games.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: I know that the schedule is tough, but they have the talent.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: Giants on five and a half under sorry, too many questions.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: Will russ be able to do it?
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: When can jackson dark come in?
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: Is my league neighbors healthy?
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: Who's running the ball?
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: The schedule so under five and a two, eight, too much shit going.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: On.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Eagles ten and a half no bet.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Hangover, super bowl, hangover, ish.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: They honestly.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: They probably land at 10, maybe nine, but make the wild card.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: But no bet, I'm not willing to put it on them.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Commanders nine and a half also no bet.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: Look, I love jayden daniels, but volatile wide receiver and running back rooms going on right now there's a potential sophomore slump for the kid.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: Look, if forced I guess I would take the under at nine, but I'm good, I'm not putting any money on that
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: one.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Nfc North Bears seven and a half under.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: I like them in 2026, not so much in 2025.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: Lions nine and a half no bet.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: Coordinators changing around.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: They could win eight or they could sneak out 11.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: I'm out, no good.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Packers nine and a half also no bet.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: Being a real pussy here no bet.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: They're probably laying right on the number, to be honest with you, and I actually probably booked them as a division winner.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: But they probably land at nine or ten.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: And Vikings eight and a half.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the over.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson and JJ McCarthy, I think, becomes a real thing and the defense is going to be good enough to keep them alive.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Nfc South Falcons seven and a half over.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: The pieces finally gel together.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: It figures it
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: out.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Panthers 6.5.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: No bet.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: They probably land on a number at 6.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe even 5.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Saints 4.5 under Quarterback is undecided this late.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: No thanks, honestly, they're probably picking number one overall next year.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: And the Bucs 9.5.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: I'll take the over 10 wins.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Wild card Evans record.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: Chase Baker's good, not 2024 good, but good enough and that's fine, honestly, they probably actually win the
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: division.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Nfc West Cardinals 8.5, under.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: They probably land on 8.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: The team is fun for fantasy, but as a team in general, in real life football, no good.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: Rams nine and a half.
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: No bet.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Stafford is hurt, he's not hurt.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: They don't know I'm good, I'm good, I'm putting my money on that.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: No
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: thanks.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: Nine and a half.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: 49ers nine and a half.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the over conditionally.
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: If Christian McCaffrey plays 17 games, they run away with the division.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: Handle it.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: If not, I'll probably still take the over.
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: They could win 8, but they probably win 10.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: And Seahawks 7.5.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the under.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: O-line concerns attrition going on.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold, I don't know.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Under, I'm good, probably wins six games.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: it.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: Stamp the envelopes.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: You heard it, you heard it here, bro.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: You heard it, I got them.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: Those are my over-unders.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: Stamp the envelopes AFC division winners Chiefs, bengals, titans, bills.
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: Nfc division winners Niners, packers, falcons, cowboys.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: And fuck it.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Just for fun, let's say it's a Bills-Cowboys Super Bowl.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: God bless us,
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: huh?
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: So now you're asking yourself Ian, this is all fun and dandy and I love to hear your gambling picks and I want you to make me so much money.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: But how does this apply to draft night?
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: And I want you to make me so much money, but how does this apply to draft night?
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Well, two players tied in your ranks.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Take the one whose prop you're betting over on and whose team total you like, debating Sutton versus a similar mid-round wide receiver.
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: You're literally on Sutton, over six and a half touchdowns.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Draft your conviction Sweating a rookie.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Well, if the book posts a conservative line and you like the over, take the over, take the rookie.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: That's the green light.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Let Vegas show you the way, right, all right, the spices have been applied, the rails have been installed, the receipts are now printed
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: Up.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: Next, the part of fantasy that wins leagues, running mags and draft strategies Hero running mag versus zero.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: Wide receiver Auction hacks that actually beat a 16-team room.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Every dollar is a player right, so let's spend like villains running max, running max, running max.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Gone are the days of adrian peterson and ladanian thian Thompson being true three-down workhorse, kick-your-ass running backs.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: The depth at the wide receiver position is insane nowadays and with committees popping up left and right, it's really important that you get your running back selection correct to win your league.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: It's really important that you get your running back selection correct to win your
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: league.
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: So our philosophy here is draft roles, not arguments, right, pick a lane that matches your room and your budget.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you two clean strategies, one being the hero running back and the other being the spread and snipe strategy.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: Then I'm going to hold committee court and sprinkle in a little do not draft and some must haves that I want for running backs.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Lastly, finish up with a little auction lab so you can rob your 16-team room with a smile on your face.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: So, first things first, find the draft strategy that works for you.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: The first one is the hero running back, aka anchor and attack.
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: So the point behind this strategy is you grab one elite back early and then you just hammer wide receiver, quarterback, tight end and circle back for an upside running back in like six, seven, eight, nine, okay.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: So the ideal anchors at cost obviously are bijan robson, jameer gibbs, christian mccaffrey, derrick henry, even little ashen, jantyy Devin A Chain, even with the injury and Jonathan Taylor.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Those are all viable if discounted
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: correctly.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: Anchor running backs and you'll notice a name that wasn't in there was Saquon Barkley, because these are the price-sensitive anchors and it's okay to be a little picky here and change off strategy mid-draft, which you have to be flexible in a draft.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: You've got to be prepared to make moves.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: You can do 1,000 mocks, but you don't know what the idiot to your left is going to take.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: So Saquon Barkley, I know, look, he's an RB1 in a vacuum right.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: 492 touches last year is the kiss of death.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Historically draftable, yes for sure.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Top five selection I'm gonna be a little selective.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: And the other one on that list is josh jacobs.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: 2024 last year was a scheme anomaly for lafle and I would expect some carry and touchdown regression coming into this year.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: Look, he's only an anchor.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: If he slides meaningfully he can be an anchor, but a late
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: anchor.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: So anyway, once you have your anchor, now it's time to attack wide receivers and follow the map.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: I just gave you last segment for wide receiver values.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: Time to attack wide receivers and follow the map.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: I just gave you last segment for wide receiver values.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Then you take a value quarterback.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: You know purdy, drake, may, mccarthy.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Then you circle back and you just start hammering, running backs left and right.
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: One of them's got a hit.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Probably a couple of them will hit.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Worst case scenario you have too many.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: Best case you have too many.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Best case scenario you have too many and you turn them into trade
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: bait.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Now the other strategy, option number two it's called the spread and snipe, aka skip the top bullshit and just stack the middle as much as you can.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: So let's say you're picking towards the end of your draft right and the elites just get nuked by your draft room and the elites just get nuked by your draft room.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: Do yourself a favor, skip the tacks and just take two or three of the middle round guys.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: Travis Etienne is first on that list.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: He is a discounted running back one.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: He is a good player in a pass-happy offense.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: He's going to get a lot of looks up the middle once they start backing those safeties
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: off.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: Tony Pollard's, another one uh, tajay Spears has a high ankle, so that pretty much gives him full runway with an upgraded o-line Tank Bigsby same thing as ETN.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: He'll get some early down work, some goal line work.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: If you just want touchdowns, jordan Mason very short yardage goal line work.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: If you just want touchdowns, jordan Mason very short yardage goal line role.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: But contingent upside of Jones gets dinged up and the head coach has already said that he kind of plans on using him heavy.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: Could be a real true committee over there.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: Jordan Mason's a great late
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: pickup.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: Caleb Johnson out of Pittsburgh Arthur Smith just loves to run the ball.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: Got volume path over the polish Cam Scadabo.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: If the hammy cooperates his upside could be league winning.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: That kid just runs hard.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: Jaden Blue out of Dallas um, he's got some receiving juice on a team that's already going to be past Eppie and that's desperate for a running back to shine.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, javante Williams is their starting running back on the depth chart right now and Zach Charbonnet Got a good timeshare history and Kenneth Walker is constantly hurt.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: Doesn't hurt to just grab him
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: All rise, because it's time for committee court and we're starting it off with Washington.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: So the defendant, brian Robson Jr, holding out, he might get traded, he might just get straight up cut.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: Who knows what's going on over there.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: But you ready for this name Jacory Krosky Merritt, aka Bill Bill.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: Bill Bill, not this science guy.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: He's flashing and it's honestly it's more of a matter of, if not when, that he takes over the full role.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: And Eckler is still a PPR glue.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: So the verdict draft a high upside guy, not the hero.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: Bill is the dart here.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Eckler may be at cost in PPR leagues, deep PPR leagues, but Bill is the guy you want buried in your roster and then all of a sudden he goes for 15, and you don't not play him for the rest of the
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: year.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville, the defendant bigsby.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: He started most of the time, most of the early down work and the goal line work.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: Etn's been on the passing down and ready for another name here Bayshall Tutton is lurking in the wings.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: Well, the verdict draft both Draft one of them, whoever you want.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Bigsby has the touchdown path and ETN is the reception floor.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: Do you want PPRR?
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Do you want touchdowns?
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: You're good with either.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: Tutton is the one that you want toPRR.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: Do you want touchdowns?
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: You're good with either.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: Tootin, tutton.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: Tutton is the one that you want to stash, though Take him, he might take over and he's got some explosive
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: speed.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: The big trouble the New York Jets, the defendant Brees, hall.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: Well, braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis have rotated with the starters consistently and Allen has been taking third downs in first-team reps.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: Look, davis sat with an ankle and is explosive when he's healthy, right.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: So here's the verdict.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: Hall's ADP is risky in a low-scoring, run-heavy offense, check-down offense, he'll get his play, but I think the draft guy is Isaiah Davis.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: He's the sleeper tax you want to pay.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: Allen is going to steal some short yardage and probably get a lot of goal-line looks, but Davis is probably the guy and any injury to Brees Hall.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: Both of these players skyrocket up the board and you'll be thanking yourself three months in the future when you draft them.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: The Panthers
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: now.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: Well, the defendant Chuba Hubbard gets the early down work, but not really the passing.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: They picked up Rico Dowdle, who is 5'1".
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: The verdict Chuba's fine.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: Chuba's fine as a flex player, but just temper the expectations.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: He's not going to get any catches and you've got to hope for him to score a touchdown or two.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: And last but not least, on this list of committee court, the Miami Dolphins, the defendant Devin Achain.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: So Alexander Madison is out and Jalen Wright is just going to slide into that Mozart role, while Ollie Gordon, the rookie that they drafted, is pushing for some goal line works.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say the verdict is that HN is the engine.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: He's fine, he's draftable.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: You just have to be prepared for an injury and definitely 100%, grab a handcuff.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: Wright is probably the preferred best ball guy, but handcuff-wise I would grab Gordon.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: He's going to get a lot of goal line looks and if A-Chain stays hurt, he's going to be the one that probably gets the
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: push.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: So to recap and kind of circle back, tie everything in here, a couple of my do not draft guys at price.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: As I mentioned Saquon Barkley, I'm out on Saquon.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: The 400-plus touch regression.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: It's tough to ignore man, especially at age 28.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Look, he's draftable, below price, sure, but he's going at his running back too.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: On the board, that sticker price, you're buying the tail end.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: I'm out.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: As a Jeff fan, I hate to say it.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not drafting Brees Hall either.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: I'm good.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: As a Jet fan, I hate to say it.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not drafting Brees Hall either.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: I'm
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: good.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: There's a committee, there's a new regime, justin Fields is going to be running the ball, there's going to be check down stuff.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: The Jets TD production is already thin as is.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: I don't see Brees having a good year, even in a contract year.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs I expect the rushing touchdowns and overall attempts honestly just to fall down a little bit.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: He's fragile at a running back.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: One price, running back two, sure, running back one, I'm good.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: Uh, and ramaji stevenson, I wouldn't touch him with a 10 football.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: Travion henderson is the tea leaf.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: The new regime has already showed their hand and that kid can flat out.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: Ball Price makes the trap, not the player.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: Draft accordingly and you'll win your
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: league.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: Now, from the.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: Do not want players to the must have values at cost.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: Of course, don't reach up to draft any of these guys.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: Do not want players to the must-have values at cost?
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: Of course don't reach up to draft any of these guys, but at cost.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: Some of the players, some of the running backs that I really do think have so much value.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: Travis Etienne I said it before, he's a discounted path back to a running back one, and especially in PPR leagues.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: All of a sudden you're going to look up, he's going to have 15 points.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: Tony Pollard he's going to get so much volume.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: The schedule is easy, the O-line is super strong, he's got top 15 written all over him.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Looking forward to getting my hands on him in a couple
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: leagues.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Caleb Johnson a name that really wasn't mentioned by me at all, but the starting running back for Pittsburgh.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: He's going to take over for Najee Harris.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: It's going to be him and Jalen Warren, but it looks like it's just going to be.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: Caleb Johnson, for the most part Fits the scheme.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: He's going to have a bunch of touches.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: He'll have a nice floor for
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: you.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: On a little more of the volatile side, cam Scadabo.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: If he can stay healthy man, he's going to win that job.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: Tracy's going to fumble.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: Scadabo's going to come in.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: He's going to break off a monster run and that'll be the end of that.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: And then, on the other side of New York too, isaiah Davis.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: He's got a big play profile the committee beneficiary.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: If Hall moves or gets hurt, I don't know.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: He's going to do well with Braylon Allen and Jalen Wright out of Miami.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: He's explosive.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: He's the exact role that made Mozart a league winner a couple years ago.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: That's the guy you want to stash on your bench.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: I'll take him wherever I can get
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: him.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: Now, those are two strategies for drafting leagues.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: But what if you're in an auction league?
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: What if you're in a big auction league, as they most of the time are?
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: You don't really see 10, 12-man auction leagues.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: The whole point of the auction is to make sure that everybody has a chance to get a hand on a player.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: So what's the strategy for
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: that?
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: Well, here's a couple tips.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: Tip number one don't blow the bag early.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: Okay, and I cannot stress that enough.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: Everyone seems to always snag, or always want to snag, two monster players early.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: They want to grab CD, they want to grab Brock Bowers and all of a sudden they're left with $100 for the rest of the draft.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: They blow their budget early and then they just end up drinking their ass off while everybody else drafts.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: Don't do that.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: Trust me.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: I may or may not know from personal experience, or may not know from personal
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: experience.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: The trick to auction leagues is cap your top player at about 30 to 35% of your league budget.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: Let the two-man bidding wars drain their wallets.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: Don't get involved.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: Don't try and bid somebody up on a player that you don't want.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Who gives a shit?
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: Let them burn their money, okay.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: The other one one, too, is limit solo positions.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: One quarterback, one tight end, one kicker, one defensive slot Take one.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: Don't grab two tight ends.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: Don't grab a backup quarterback.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: Who cares?
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: Stream later.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: Stream them when you're needed.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: Spend your money on running back and wide receiver volume okay, grab the guys that actually matter.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: The other important rule to always go by is the 50 20 rule.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, so that means you want to reserve 20 to 25 percent of your budget for the final 50 percent of the
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: nominations.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: End game dollars is what wins auction leagues.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: You want to be the guy at the end of the draft that can outbid everybody on a player that you want by $1.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: The best guy can go for $16.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: Well, you have $17.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Sold, thank you.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: And the last little sneaky one Nominate the
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: landmines.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: Nominate the $2 assholes.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, late in the draft, everybody's tapped out at one dollar max bids.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: Time to throw your sleeper for that two dollar door.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: Okay, nominate the landmines.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: Get people bidding early.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: Not interested in any of the Saints wide receivers?
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: Nominate them.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: Let somebody bid up big on Chris Alave.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: Let somebody spend some money on a running back that they're not too sure of but they kind of like him, or somebody on their team that they follow that they think is going to be a stud.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: Let them bid them up.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Who cares?
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: And the other one too, is to walk
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: away.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: Before the draft set a specific number for some of the elite guys.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: If derrick henry clears your number by three dollars, let them take them.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: Don't bid up so you can maybe get another dollar out of them.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: Whatever, let let them take them.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Let them buy the parade float.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, for the price you would have spent on him, you'll buy two starters with what you saved and then mid season, he'll come crawling and knocking on your door and saying, hey, are you any interest in a Derrick Henry?
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: Or whatever?
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: Let them, let them take it.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: Let them take it.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: You'll be laughing your way to the bank, laughing your way to the
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: championship.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: So, to recap the the final rules when it comes to drafting running backs, you want to take roles over names.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: Don't just grab the guy with the big name, because that's who you're supposed to take.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: Do some homework, do some research.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: See who's getting target share.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: See when they're using them.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: Draft the roles over the names.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: See when they're using them.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: Draft the roles over the
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: names.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: The ambiguous, unclear backfields are where the titles hide in a running back committee of two or three people.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: If you can find the guy in that committee, you'll be in the playoffs, guaranteed.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: And lastly, let the price make the decision for you.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: If somebody falls to you, take them, but don't feel pressured to snag a running back super early just because this is where I'm supposed to take this guy.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: If a guy like A-Chan or Bucky Irvin is on the board and you don't like him.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: And CeeDee Lamb is still taking him.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: Take CeeDee Lamb, you'll find other guys, don't worry.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: Worry about it, get the best players available.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: Let the price dictate your decision, all right?
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: Well, that's that for the backs
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: up.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: Next, everybody's favorite rookies and sleepers the candy aisle, the sweetness.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: We'll stock your bench with breakouts before your league mates even know their names.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: And we'll be doing it without sacrificing week one points either.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: Smart shoppers, bring a basket, here we go, they're here.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: That's right Time for some rookies and sleepers.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: Yes, the candy aisle.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: But tonight we're not just naming names, we're building a machine different gears, different
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: timelines.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: One goal, score now, detonate later and never carry dead weight.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: Dead weight, think of things.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: Using the three clocks.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: Every rookie or sleeper we draft has to answer one question when does it pay?
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: Clock one it pays now.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: Week one usable, unusable.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: Clock two soon grows into a start by, let's say, october.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: Or clock three later stash for the buy storm and the breakout in the chaos season.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: So let's start with clock one, guys, for the, now that you can plug and play right off the
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: rip.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: We'll start with Ricky Pearsall.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: He's not exactly a rookie, but it took him a while to get in and now it's probably going to be his first full real season Again.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: Demarcus Robinson suspended.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Ayuk is on the mend.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: Jennings is nicked.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: Shanahan has already been treating him like a
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: grown-up.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: Purdy in preseason looked his way the first drive of the preseason nonstop.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: It's safe to treat him as a wide receiver.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: Three until further notice.
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: Not so much a sleeper anymore, but my guy Tetratoa McMillan.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: He falls under that clock one.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: Now he's got the rookie label, but a vet workload.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: Bryce Young's cleanest throw to win option.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: If if you drafted him to flex every now and then, you'll start him more weeks than not guaranteed.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: Matthew Golden also falls under that now
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: category.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: I know I touched on it before, but I mean it.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: It's a first round wide out after 23 year drought for the Packers front office.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: Okay, that alone is enough to know that they mean to push this kid.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: And he's got great hands, great route running ability.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: He's usable right out of the gate.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: I promise you and these three wide receivers are don't leave the draft without one.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: If you waited on receiver, these are one of the guys that you must take.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: Okay, don't let your league mates have one of these three guys, just get one of them.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: You won't be disappointed.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: Now clock two.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: This is the soon clock, the week's three to six snowball kind of
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: clock.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: First on the list is Caleb Johnson out of Pittsburgh, arthur Smith archetype with a runway of vacated touches.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: There is no one to take this ball except him and Jalen Warren, and I think they're over Jalen Warren Early carries lead to early scores.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: The receiving can grow later.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: Cam Scadabo for the Giants.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: He's also a soon Health permitting.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: He is a full-on angry tone setter.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: The Giants need chain movers and Scadabo is that guy.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: September is going to be the audition, but October.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: But October, that's when he's going to take
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: off.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: Torrey Horton soon Clean camp.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: He's got a good drum beat.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: He's good with the guys, gets some first-team reps here and there.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: Some separation on the tape too.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: Look Seattle man.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: It starts as the number three and then the usage starts to spike up little by little and all of a sudden he's running 70% of routes.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Miami, same
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: thing.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Ollie gordon, the second soon a chain is the fireworks, right, but ollie can be the the bouncer at the velvet rope.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: He can be that goal line guy and goal line equity flips weeks.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: You plug him in, he scores a touchdown.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: Maybe he gets two.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: All of a sudden you're looking at 15 points from a guy you drafted in the 12th round.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: Lastly, clock three the later guys, the stash with a purpose guys.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: Basial Tootin, out of Jacksonville Everybody's reading it as a two-back surface, but it's a three-back
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: reality.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: If either etn or bigsby hiccups or gets hurt or fumbles or whatever, toons juices fill the vacuum.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: That's a november hammer that you held on to forever.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: Jacori cross jacori kroski I said I wasn't going to fuck his name up, but I did anyway.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: Aka Bill he's a later guy.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: Clock three the commanders are clearly reshuffling.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: If Robinson moves on or gets hurt or holds out or whatever, bill's live for eight to 12 touches almost immediately.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: That's a guy you're going to be so happy you drafted.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: And Isaiah Davis he's another later guy.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: He's got explosive tape and the writing's on the wall.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: The Jets aren't going to pay Brees and if the Jets tilt towards a hot hand, davis, is that $1 waiver or that 15th round pickup that could possibly win you your
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: league.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: So what about head-to-head?
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: What about tie breaks?
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: You can only pick one.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: Both guys are going to be gone.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: This is your draft pick.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: You can't have them
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: both.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: So Pearsall versus Golden.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: Well, do you need points in September?
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: You take Pearsall.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: Are you building for a full season wide receiver three?
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: You take Golden.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: What about Caleb Johnson versus Ollie Gordon?
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: Who's got the safer floor, caleb?
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: Who's got the bigger touchdown volatility that you can maybe sneak in the flex every now and then?
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: Well, it's Ali.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: How about Torrey Horton versus Jalen Lane?
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: More routes by midseason?
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: Probably Horton, the faster path to a scheme touch Lane.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: How about Tootin versus Skadabo?
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: Higher playoff upside Tootin.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: He'll be there the longest but better chance to matter by week three and maybe carry your league
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: Skadabo.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: The important thing with rookies and sleepers and bench spots too, is, let's call it the portfolio rule.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: You want to keep your portfolio in order, right.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: So you got your guys.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: You got your starters.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: Maybe a bench guy here and there, whatever.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: Really, it's two starters, one climber and one detonator.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: That's it.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: That's what you should be drafting for four bench spots.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: That'll do the
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: job.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: So if a rookie isn't on the field by week three and there really isn't a clear will they, won't they or whatever cut them fast and reload.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's the rookie machine, that's the sleeper machine.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: You draft guys with high upside.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: They don't work out.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: Don't be afraid to cut bait.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: So that's it really for rookies and sleepers Clocks method.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: You've got your tie breaks and traps avoided.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: You've got your now, soon and later guys that you want to keep your eyes on.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: You want to draft to the timeline, not the helmet, and by doing that you'll be the calmest person in a room full of reachers.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: But rookies bagged, sleepers pocketed, and your bench is
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: weaponized.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: Quick reset on the show.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: One last lap here.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: We'll land the plane with the outro, your receipts corner, prompt and recap of what we covered today.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: Then you can go on, make me proud and win some drafts and that is a wrap.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: That is the.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: That is the fantasy extravaganza.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: You did the full lap QBs with a plan, wide receivers with a map.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Hot takes to the Vegas car wash, running back builds that actually win rooms and a rookie sleeper portfolio that scores now and spikes later.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: If your draft board doesn't feel calmer after all that that's just adrenaline It'll pass Probably.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: Quick housekeeping before we hit the tunnel Receipts corner Drop a comment or a DM with one flag that you
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: love.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: I want name and the round that you would actually pay to take them.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: We'll read the best ones on air and, yes, we keep score around here.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: So if you send a victory lap in December, better come with that timestamp too.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: If this episode helped you even a little bit, do the right thing.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: Do the two click thing, follow, rate review.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: It's a free way to boost the show, helps me a lot and probably annoys the shit out of your league mates too.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: So win-win Hell.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: Even share it with the one friend who drafts a kicker in the 10th round.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: We can fix him, I promise.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: Also, friendly reminder bet
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: responsibly.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, if you're tailing the props that I gave you and you want to throw some scratch on them, wager what you'd spend on a stadium beer, not on a car payment For the folks in the headphones.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: Yes you, thanks for letting me ride shotgun on your draft prep.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: Make sure you guys follow the Instagram at RiceOnTheRadio.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: I run polls every Wednesday and I'll answer all your DMs and be sure to send me your rosters once you guys draft.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: I would love to see the advice that you guys took and the monster rosters that you ended up with.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: I'm Ian Rice this is Rice on the Mics and, as always, spread good energy in this world and tell someone you love them yes, even the person who snagged your pic right in front of you.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: I'll see you guys next week, same time, same place.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: Cheers.