Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Don’t Miss Out on HUGE Primary Election Value on Tuesday

Transcript

Don’t Miss Out on HUGE Primary Election Value on Tuesday · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  We have so much coming up for you today that I think you're going to like.
• 0:04
  We have a big primary coming up on Tuesday.
• 0:07
  I want to give you a little bit of a head start on that one because
• 0:09
  if you wait until the last second,
• 0:10
  some of that profit goes away.
• 0:12
  So we're gonna look at that,
• 0:13
  who's gonna win,
• 0:13
  who's gonna lose,
• 0:14
  if there's money to be made.
• 0:15
  We will talk about uh Tim Wall's failing.
• 0:17
  That's always a really fun thing to talk about.
• 0:20
  And we're gonna talk about a situation where
• 0:24
  Millions of dollars just dissolved on prediction markets,
• 0:28
  uh,
• 0:28
  because of a little tiny quirk.
• 0:30
  I mean,
• 0:31
  sometimes this stuff can be
• 0:32
  intimidating and for these reasons,
• 0:34
  I will,
• 0:34
  uh,
• 0:35
  show you and tell you that story as well
• 0:37
  coming up on the show.
• 0:39
  Uh,
• 0:39
  we were just talking on the live stream which is available at our sub stack,
• 0:42
  predictableshow.com.
• 0:43
  So the,
• 0:44
  the paid subscribers,
• 0:46
  uh,
• 0:46
  who get access.
• 0:47
  To the show as we tape it every single day so you get to see it kind of come out live,
• 0:51
  uh,
• 0:51
  and you get a little bit of an advanced knowledge about what we're talking about,
• 0:54
  what positions we might be taking,
• 0:56
  as well as,
• 0:57
  uh,
• 0:57
  all sorts of other cool benefits.
• 0:59
  So join us,
• 0:59
  uh,
• 1:00
  there,
• 1:00
  uh,
• 1:01
  you know,
• 1:01
  we really appreciate it when you do that.
• 1:03
  PredictableShow.com,
• 1:04
  predictableShow.com.
• 1:06
  All right,
• 1:06
  let's get this thing started.
• 1:07
  Lots to talk about.
• 1:09
  It's predictable with Stu.
• 1:25
  Welcome
• 1:26
  to Predictable with Stu.
• 1:28
  We do appreciate that you've uh shown up here today.
• 1:31
  We've got the people on the audio.
• 1:32
  We love you.
• 1:33
  We got the people on the YouTube at
• 1:35
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 1:37
  We love you as well.
• 1:38
  Of course,
• 1:39
  people over on Predictable.
• 1:40
  Show.com,
• 1:41
  and we're everywhere.
• 1:42
  And we do appreciate it when you are able to
• 1:44
  check in and hopefully,
• 1:46
  this is,
• 1:46
  uh,
• 1:47
  it's been a profitable election year for you so far.
• 1:49
  What's interesting about
• 1:51
  primaries versus,
• 1:52
  let's say,
• 1:53
  uh,
• 1:53
  a,
• 1:53
  a big election night like in November.
• 1:56
  You have a chance to kind of roll your profits into the next week,
• 2:01
  right?
• 2:01
  You can make some profit here,
• 2:02
  then you get a little bit more to go to the next week,
• 2:04
  a little bit more to go to the next week,
• 2:05
  and you can build,
• 2:07
  uh,
• 2:07
  that way until hopefully you have a nice big bankroll
• 2:10
  to go at this election.
• 2:11
  There's gonna be tons of opportunities.
• 2:13
  We're building towards November,
• 2:14
  but lots of stuff,
• 2:15
  uh,
• 2:15
  before that.
• 2:16
  Here's the upcoming primary schedule.
• 2:18
  We've got
• 2:19
  on Tuesday,
• 2:20
  Kansas,
• 2:20
  Michigan,
• 2:21
  Missouri,
• 2:21
  Virginia,
• 2:22
  and Washington.
• 2:23
  Then on Thursday,
• 2:25
  Tennessee's like,
• 2:26
  screw your Tuesdays.
• 2:27
  I don't care about your traditions.
• 2:29
  I don't care,
• 2:30
  we sure,
• 2:31
  we're the home of country music.
• 2:33
  Sure,
• 2:33
  Nashville used to be a traditional country,
• 2:35
  uh,
• 2:36
  music town.
• 2:37
  Now it's got,
• 2:37
  sure,
• 2:38
  a little bit of that,
• 2:38
  but we're also gonna screw with you and have a bunch of bachelorette parties.
• 2:41
  Anyway,
• 2:41
  uh,
• 2:42
  that's August 6th in Tennessee.
• 2:44
  Um,
• 2:44
  August 8th is in Hawaii.
• 2:46
  In Hawaii,
• 2:47
  they,
• 2:48
  they probably just think that's Tuesday in their time zone.
• 2:50
  I don't even know.
• 2:51
  I've never even been there.
• 2:51
  I want,
• 2:52
  I want to go really badly,
• 2:53
  uh,
• 2:53
  but I've never been there.
• 2:54
  Maybe I'll go out to see Dave.
• 2:55
  Dave Landau is gonna be in Hawaii in a few,
• 2:57
  uh,
• 2:57
  weeks,
• 2:57
  and I'll just gonna go up,
• 2:58
  just show up at his hotel room
• 3:00
  and say.
• 3:00
  I need a place to stay.
• 3:01
  I wanna see your show.
• 3:02
  Anyway,
• 3:02
  that's coming up as well.
• 3:03
  August 11th
• 3:04
  is another big one.
• 3:05
  So we have this Tuesday,
• 3:06
  5 states,
• 3:08
  couple of uh cool things in between with Tennessee and Hawaii,
• 3:10
  and then,
• 3:11
  uh,
• 3:11
  August 11th,
• 3:12
  the next Tuesday,
• 3:13
  you have Connecticut,
• 3:14
  Minnesota,
• 3:14
  Vermont,
• 3:15
  Wisconsin,
• 3:15
  and a very
• 3:17
  interesting.
• 3:17
  Uh,
• 3:18
  Republican primary in South Carolina.
• 3:20
  This is,
• 3:20
  of course,
• 3:21
  because of Lindsey Graham passing away.
• 3:22
  So really,
• 3:23
  really
• 3:23
  uh tons of stuff,
• 3:24
  uh,
• 3:24
  coming up here in the next few weeks.
• 3:26
  Let me give you a quick lay of the land.
• 3:27
  CNN poll just coming out,
• 3:28
  uh,
• 3:28
  voters favoring Democrats by an 8 point margin
• 3:32
  leading into the,
• 3:33
  uh,
• 3:33
  to the midterms.
• 3:34
  Uh,
• 3:35
  that is a poll,
• 3:36
  uh,
• 3:37
  conducted by CNN through SSRS.
• 3:39
  Uh,
• 3:40
  Democrats also continue to hold a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm.
• 3:43
  They have a 20 point advantage there.
• 3:45
  It's a lot.
• 3:46
  More Americans say the country would be better off,
• 3:48
  uh,
• 3:48
  than worse off if Democrats were to take control of Congress this November.
• 3:54
  It's not a huge surprise,
• 3:55
  you know,
• 3:56
  you might say,
• 3:57
  well,
• 3:57
  CNN,
• 3:57
  that's a left-wing poll.
• 3:59
  Yeah,
• 3:59
  I,
• 4:00
  I,
• 4:00
  you know,
• 4:00
  I,
• 4:00
  I,
• 4:00
  there's some evidence to say that it's a little bit more left than reality.
• 4:04
  That doesn't mean though that Republicans are ahead
• 4:07
  in that type of thing.
• 4:08
  That's the generic ballot poll.
• 4:09
  So you're looking at a poll where you're just trying to get the lay of the land,
• 4:12
  sort of like.
• 4:14
  What are we looking at as a,
• 4:17
  a starting point for any individual race?
• 4:19
  And
• 4:19
  if you have a situation where you think
• 4:21
  in normal times,
• 4:22
  in a,
• 4:23
  in all things being equal,
• 4:24
  you have a tie,
• 4:26
  a lot of times in these types of races,
• 4:27
  you can make money by just going with the Democrat in those close races,
• 4:30
  uh,
• 4:31
  if that holds up.
• 4:31
  Of course,
• 4:32
  we're months away,
• 4:32
  but I wanted to at least give you the lay of the land.
• 4:34
  The big race coming up on Michigan,
• 4:36
  the highest profile.
• 4:37
  You know,
• 4:38
  the,
• 4:38
  the,
• 4:38
  the,
• 4:38
  the sexiest race,
• 4:39
  if you will.
• 4:40
  Polls show Senate governor primaries trends a week before the election.
• 4:44
  Um,
• 4:44
  this is the big one though.
• 4:46
  Uh,
• 4:46
  it is Michigan and the Michigan Democratic Senate
• 4:50
  primary.
• 4:51
  We did a mention market,
• 4:53
  by the way,
• 4:53
  I cleaned up on that puppy.
• 4:54
  I think I said 7 out of 8 of my positions,
• 4:57
  uh,
• 4:57
  on,
• 4:57
  uh,
• 4:58
  between,
• 4:58
  uh,
• 4:58
  Haley,
• 4:59
  uh,
• 4:59
  Stevens
• 5:00
  and,
• 5:00
  uh,
• 5:00
  Abdul El Sayed.
• 5:02
  Um,
• 5:03
  that was a fun one.
• 5:04
  We had a really good time.
• 5:05
  If you've ever seen a live mention market
• 5:07
  where,
• 5:08
  you know,
• 5:08
  you look like an idiot because someone just said
• 5:10
  car.
• 5:11
  Uh,
• 5:12
  it's just a lot of fun.
• 5:13
  Uh,
• 5:13
  so we might,
• 5:14
  we might do another one with the
• 5:15
  South Carolina debate
• 5:17
  on Monday.
• 5:18
  So stay tuned on the social media or predictableShow.com,
• 5:21
  we'll tell you all about it.
• 5:22
  Poll released Thursday morning,
• 5:23
  Emerson College.
• 5:24
  Emerson's a good pollster.
• 5:25
  Uh,
• 5:26
  Wood TV 8 is the sponsor of this one.
• 5:28
  Abdul El Sayed
• 5:30
  has a 14 point lead.
• 5:32
  The polling in this race is bizarre,
• 5:34
  bizarre.
• 5:35
  14 point lead over Haley Stevens,
• 5:37
  the US rep
• 5:38
  in the Democratic,
• 5:39
  uh,
• 5:39
  primary for US Senate.
• 5:40
  It's 54
• 5:42
  to 39,
• 5:44
  which,
• 5:44
  uh,
• 5:44
  you might,
• 5:44
  um,
• 5:45
  if you are,
• 5:45
  uh,
• 5:46
  really good at math,
• 5:47
  you might realize it is actually a 15 point lead,
• 5:49
  but they're rounding.
• 5:50
  So,
• 5:50
  but it's,
• 5:50
  it's a big lead,
• 5:51
  big lead.
• 5:52
  Al Sayed,
• 5:53
  uh,
• 5:53
  has a better among independents at 60%,
• 5:57
  Democrats 50%,
• 5:58
  uh,
• 5:58
  over than Stevens,
• 5:59
  33 and 41% respectively.
• 6:02
  The,
• 6:03
  um,
• 6:03
  issue I guess here
• 6:05
  is
• 6:06
  you've got that standard
• 6:09
  Democratic battle going on.
• 6:11
  This is a,
• 6:12
  uh,
• 6:12
  party,
• 6:13
  um,
• 6:14
  person,
• 6:14
  a,
• 6:15
  uh,
• 6:15
  an establishment character in,
• 6:17
  in Haley Stevens going up against Abdul El Sayed,
• 6:19
  a democratic socialist.
• 6:21
  Now he.
• 6:24
  What's interesting about El Sayed,
• 6:25
  there's a couple of different
• 6:26
  flavors,
• 6:27
  I guess,
• 6:28
  of the democratic socialism thing.
• 6:31
  You have a,
• 6:33
  a flavor of the Bernie Sanders variety,
• 6:35
  right?
• 6:36
  And,
• 6:36
  uh,
• 6:36
  and I would put AOC in that same category,
• 6:38
  and then I'd put Mamdani and El Sayed in another category.
• 6:42
  And it's the,
• 6:43
  it's a kind of a difference in approach,
• 6:44
  not much difference in policy.
• 6:47
  What you get from Bernie Sanders and AOC is this country is,
• 6:50
  is,
• 6:50
  you know,
• 6:50
  it sucks and everything's wrong and look how terrible capitalism is,
• 6:55
  and I'm angry and I don't know what a garbage disposal is,
• 6:59
  and I have 14 houses,
• 7:00
  even though I'm supposed to be a socialist.
• 7:02
  Gurgur g gurg.
• 7:04
  That is the Bernie Sanders AOC variety,
• 7:06
  and while
• 7:07
  one is old and one is young.
• 7:09
  It is basically the same approach.
• 7:10
  It's an angry fist shaking,
• 7:12
  finger pointing,
• 7:14
  this country blows type of approach,
• 7:16
  uh from uh that branch.
• 7:19
  The Mamdani El Sayed approach is socialism with a smile.
• 7:24
  He,
• 7:25
  he,
• 7:25
  I mean,
• 7:25
  it's over the freaking top with Mom Donnie.
• 7:28
  How,
• 7:28
  how people don't see through the nonsense with that guy,
• 7:31
  I will never,
• 7:32
  I will never understand.
• 7:34
  He and because he's smiling,
• 7:35
  you know,
• 7:35
  hey,
• 7:36
  um,
• 7:36
  you know,
• 7:36
  you are the,
• 7:37
  uh,
• 7:37
  the worst anti-Semite ever and are rooting for the Holocaust.
• 7:40
  How do you feel?
• 7:41
  I feel great.
• 7:42
  I just,
• 7:43
  uh,
• 7:43
  thank you so much.
• 7:44
  The American people really love blah,
• 7:46
  he's a car salesman.
• 7:47
  El Sayed is attempting to do the exact same thing.
• 7:50
  I wouldn't say he's as good at it
• 7:53
  as Mamdani is,
• 7:54
  at least in Mamdani's case,
• 7:56
  he's able to really fool people and I mean,
• 7:59
  that's what he's trying to do.
• 8:00
  He's trying to lie his way into office
• 8:03
  and that's what Abdul El Sayed is doing as well.
• 8:05
  He'll say things like,
• 8:06
  you know,
• 8:06
  I really care about the internal combustion engine.
• 8:08
  Do you,
• 8:09
  do you,
• 8:10
  I know you're in Michigan and you're like legally required to say that,
• 8:13
  but do you?
• 8:15
  Who could believe this guy,
• 8:17
  you know,
• 8:17
  over and over and over again,
• 8:18
  he says things like this.
• 8:19
  He says he's,
• 8:20
  he's not a socialist,
• 8:21
  he's just a capitalist that understands capitalism.
• 8:24
  Are you,
• 8:25
  are you really?
• 8:26
  Now,
• 8:27
  you might say he kind of seems like a capitalist because he's got lots of money.
• 8:32
  Uh,
• 8:32
  he doesn't seem to be donating all of his money to,
• 8:34
  uh,
• 8:35
  the,
• 8:36
  the,
• 8:36
  the,
• 8:36
  uh,
• 8:37
  the proletariat,
• 8:38
  uh,
• 8:39
  you know,
• 8:39
  or,
• 8:39
  or,
• 8:40
  uh,
• 8:40
  the bourgeoisie.
• 8:41
  He seems to be keeping it all himself.
• 8:43
  Um,
• 8:44
  so I,
• 8:45
  as a,
• 8:45
  as a person with all sorts of skeptical,
• 8:47
  uh,
• 8:48
  senses for this race.
• 8:50
  You kind of recognize what's going on here.
• 8:52
  The,
• 8:52
  the issue here,
• 8:53
  and Michigan's the type of place
• 8:55
  where it's possible that approach could fail.
• 8:57
  El Sayed could try to be a socialist and or at least be close to a socialist,
• 9:01
  not maybe admit it,
• 9:02
  uh,
• 9:02
  and Michigan would just be like,
• 9:03
  look,
• 9:03
  we don't want anything like that.
• 9:05
  Haley Stevens though isn't a great opponent.
• 9:07
  Uh,
• 9:07
  she is,
• 9:08
  uh,
• 9:08
  you know,
• 9:08
  we watched,
• 9:09
  I've watched two debates.
• 9:10
  With her now.
• 9:11
  At the end of the day,
• 9:12
  she's just not a great candidate.
• 9:14
  She's not the worst candidate I've ever seen,
• 9:16
  um,
• 9:17
  but
• 9:17
  she's getting a lot of money from places like AIPAC and like,
• 9:20
  uh,
• 9:21
  you know,
• 9:21
  look,
• 9:21
  look,
• 9:22
  our system provides
• 9:24
  different organizations with different interests to fund politics and
• 9:27
  try to get candidates that support their positions,
• 9:30
  uh,
• 9:30
  through to the end of an election season
• 9:32
  with a win.
• 9:34
  That's,
• 9:34
  I,
• 9:34
  I,
• 9:35
  I,
• 9:35
  I know a lot of people have problems with that.
• 9:37
  It's not my,
• 9:37
  it's not near my top of the list,
• 9:39
  frankly.
• 9:39
  They're like,
• 9:40
  oh,
• 9:40
  there's too much money in politics.
• 9:41
  Look how much Pepsi spends advertising every year.
• 9:44
  He,
• 9:44
  he spent
• 9:45
  10 times what we spend,
• 9:47
  uh,
• 9:47
  on,
• 9:47
  on,
• 9:47
  on,
• 9:48
  on advertising,
• 9:48
  and that's just one soda company.
• 9:50
  At the,
• 9:51
  at the end of the day,
• 9:51
  you have to make up a decision.
• 9:52
  This is,
• 9:53
  it's like a way of,
• 9:54
  of exonerating yourself and the people around you from making
• 9:57
  legitimate,
• 9:58
  well thought out decisions on who they vote for.
• 10:01
  Oh,
• 10:01
  well,
• 10:01
  there's too much advertising for this or that.
• 10:03
  Well,
• 10:04
  you know what,
• 10:04
  I,
• 10:05
  I,
• 10:05
  I take some responsibility for yourself.
• 10:07
  How about learning something about the election?
• 10:09
  Learn,
• 10:09
  then vote.
• 10:10
  That is the way you're supposed to do it.
• 10:12
  In that order,
• 10:13
  by the way,
• 10:13
  the order is important.
• 10:15
  You can't just vote,
• 10:16
  then learn or vote then never think about it again,
• 10:18
  or
• 10:19
  just,
• 10:19
  you know,
• 10:19
  watch nonstop reality television and then vote.
• 10:23
  You're supposed to think about these things in advance.
• 10:25
  You're supposed to have an opinion about,
• 10:27
  you're supposed to learn,
• 10:27
  you're supposed to read books.
• 10:29
  You're supposed to do things.
• 10:32
  You know,
• 10:32
  I,
• 10:32
  I,
• 10:32
  I'm a big Ben Franklin fan,
• 10:34
  uh,
• 10:34
  you know,
• 10:35
  as a,
• 10:35
  he's,
• 10:36
  he's my favorite founder.
• 10:37
  I love Ben because he wasn't a politician and he was,
• 10:39
  he was a guy who created things.
• 10:41
  Um,
• 10:42
  but,
• 10:42
  you know,
• 10:43
  a republic,
• 10:43
  if you can keep it,
• 10:44
  is kind of good advice,
• 10:45
  right?
• 10:47
  If you can keep it,
• 10:48
  and uh we're in a situation right now,
• 10:50
  it doesn't seem like we want it all that much.
• 10:53
  All that being said,
• 10:55
  This race is fascinating because
• 10:57
  we had,
• 10:58
  uh,
• 10:59
  can we bring up the market here for,
• 11:00
  um,
• 11:01
  uh,
• 11:01
  here it is,
• 11:01
  yeah.
• 11:02
  This is Abdul El Sayed.
• 11:03
  I mean,
• 11:03
  look at these numbers.
• 11:03
  Now,
• 11:04
  I want to just,
• 11:04
  just give you a quick description of where this race has been.
• 11:07
  Mallory,
• 11:08
  if you look at the orange line here,
• 11:09
  and I'll describe this for those listening on podcast,
• 11:11
  the orange line
• 11:12
  is in first place,
• 11:13
  uh,
• 11:13
  from late
• 11:15
  November 2025 in that range.
• 11:17
  Uh,
• 11:17
  all the way to,
• 11:19
  let's say April 2026.
• 11:21
  The lead
• 11:22
  is Mallory McMorrow.
• 11:24
  She was a candidate running in between
• 11:26
  Stevens
• 11:27
  and El Sayed.
• 11:28
  She was like,
• 11:28
  I'm not as,
• 11:29
  you know,
• 11:29
  I'm not as moderate as Stevens.
• 11:31
  I'm not as liberal as El Sayed.
• 11:33
  Well,
• 11:33
  that approach did not work at all.
• 11:35
  The people there didn't want her,
• 11:37
  and so she got tossed out
• 11:40
  of the race.
• 11:40
  In fact,
• 11:41
  she just,
• 11:42
  uh,
• 11:42
  resigned or dropped out of the race completely.
• 11:45
  You see that as it happens where um she gets passed in April
• 11:49
  by El Sayed and then she gets passed as well by Stevens,
• 11:52
  which happens in roughly early June,
• 11:55
  late May.
• 11:57
  The race since then has been interesting,
• 11:59
  where El Sayed looked like he kind of had this.
• 12:01
  He was rising into the 80% chance to win
• 12:05
  situation
• 12:06
  and then we started seeing some interesting polling,
• 12:09
  polling that showed it very close,
• 12:10
  the race,
• 12:11
  and then
• 12:12
  a poll,
• 12:13
  which was not an internal poll from the Stevens campaign,
• 12:16
  but a,
• 12:17
  a poll from the Stevens campaign or,
• 12:19
  or,
• 12:19
  or,
• 12:19
  uh,
• 12:20
  on this race,
• 12:21
  not from the Stevens campaign.
• 12:22
  That had Stevens up by 7.
• 12:25
  And so you see Stevens climbing,
• 12:27
  climbing,
• 12:28
  climbing,
• 12:28
  climbing.
• 12:28
  Now,
• 12:29
  I had a very small position on Abdul El Sayed,
• 12:32
  kind of with the thought
• 12:34
  that number one,
• 12:35
  I watched,
• 12:35
  uh,
• 12:36
  I watched their debate,
• 12:37
  uh,
• 12:37
  I watched the interviews with them and I just thought El Sayed was just a better
• 12:41
  aesthetic candidate.
• 12:43
  Uh,
• 12:43
  and two,
• 12:44
  look,
• 12:44
  democratic socialism
• 12:46
  is the hot thing right now.
• 12:47
  It's,
• 12:48
  it's hot pants,
• 12:49
  right?
• 12:49
  It's the thing that everybody in the Democratic Party wants.
• 12:52
  Now that's a little bit more complicated when you talk to a statewide,
• 12:55
  uh,
• 12:55
  statewide race.
• 12:57
  We went the opposite way in Colorado and won well on,
• 13:01
  uh,
• 13:01
  won big on,
• 13:02
  not big but solidly on
• 13:04
  Hickenlooper
• 13:06
  because
• 13:06
  I didn't believe the hype on the Democratic Socialists,
• 13:08
  but that was a closer race than I probably thought it was going to be,
• 13:12
  so.
• 13:13
  That moves on.
• 13:13
  We get,
• 13:14
  you see it,
• 13:14
  uh,
• 13:14
  the race turned to maybe a 60/40 situation.
• 13:18
  I haven't added anything to my position.
• 13:20
  I've just stayed with my,
• 13:21
  uh,
• 13:21
  El Sayed position.
• 13:23
  Today,
• 13:23
  new polling comes out
• 13:24
  where you see,
• 13:25
  there's two polls I thought,
• 13:26
  I think today,
• 13:27
  one was up by 15,
• 13:28
  I think another one was up by 9 or 10
• 13:30
  for El Sayed.
• 13:31
  So it does seem like he's taken the polling lead.
• 13:34
  And,
• 13:34
  you know,
• 13:34
  if you are confident in that sort of analysis,
• 13:37
  I'm,
• 13:38
  I would say moderately confident in it.
• 13:40
  I think El Sayed will win.
• 13:43
  Um,
• 13:43
  but I am not,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:45
  at the place where I am,
• 13:47
  uh,
• 13:48
  you know,
• 13:48
  I'm going all in on something like that.
• 13:50
  I,
• 13:50
  I will probably build my position slightly over the weekend if,
• 13:53
  if it feels like the right thing to do,
• 13:56
  and I'll give you updates on that as well,
• 13:57
  uh,
• 13:57
  over on PredictableShow.com,
• 13:59
  uh,
• 13:59
  but I,
• 13:59
  I do think that like I.
• 14:02
  It's one of those races where
• 14:04
  there's other races I like better
• 14:06
  that are at 93.
• 14:07
  I'll give you a couple of examples of this in a,
• 14:09
  in a minute.
• 14:10
  I also want to show you over on the,
• 14:11
  uh,
• 14:11
  on the other side,
• 14:12
  on the Republican side.
• 14:13
  Do we have,
• 14:13
  was there,
• 14:14
  there was a poll result back here.
• 14:15
  I wanna give you.
• 14:16
  This is on John James Perry Johnson race.
• 14:18
  Um,
• 14:19
  Johnson or James,
• 14:21
  if you know John James,
• 14:22
  he's written,
• 14:23
  run several times.
• 14:24
  He's a pretty good candidate.
• 14:26
  You know,
• 14:26
  he,
• 14:26
  he seems like the type of person who could win in Michigan.
• 14:30
  Uh,
• 14:30
  but he,
• 14:30
  every single time has come up just slightly short,
• 14:34
  and he,
• 14:34
  so he's run several times.
• 14:36
  Republican primary two candidates remain John James,
• 14:37
  businessman Perry Johnson.
• 14:39
  James is leading
• 14:40
  Johnson by 8 points in this poll,
• 14:42
  40 to 32.
• 14:44
  Uh,
• 14:44
  17% of voters remain undecided.
• 14:47
  Can you show me that race one more time?
• 14:48
  40 to 32%.
• 14:49
  Uh,
• 14:49
  that,
• 14:49
  that is,
• 14:50
  uh,
• 14:50
  James,
• 14:51
  and James is also right about 93%.
• 14:53
  Now it's funny because the polling is a little closer
• 14:56
  on that side in this particular poll
• 14:58
  than the Democratic side,
• 15:00
  um.
• 15:01
  But,
• 15:02
  but I,
• 15:03
  I honestly would probably be just as confident in James,
• 15:07
  uh,
• 15:07
  to win that race over Perry Johnson,
• 15:10
  uh,
• 15:10
  at 93.7%. I can't remember,
• 15:12
  a lot of people were like,
• 15:13
  oh gosh,
• 15:13
  90%,
• 15:13
  it's only 6% profit,
• 15:14
  7% profit.
• 15:16
  Um,
• 15:16
  well,
• 15:17
  the truth of the matter is 7% profit.
• 15:19
  We always say it is,
• 15:20
  uh,
• 15:23
  Amendment number 7.
• 15:24
  Amendment number 7 is know your APR,
• 15:28
  uh,
• 15:28
  your annual percentage rate,
• 15:29
  because
• 15:30
  7% over a few days
• 15:32
  is pretty darn good.
• 15:34
  Pretty darn good,
• 15:35
  especially when you're getting,
• 15:36
  you know,
• 15:36
  2,
• 15:36
  3% in your,
• 15:37
  in,
• 15:38
  in your savings account.
• 15:39
  So,
• 15:39
  we do look for opportunities like that even,
• 15:41
  uh,
• 15:42
  cause we can just turn that money over.
• 15:43
  We could take $1 into $1.08
• 15:45
  $1.07
• 15:46
  $1.10
• 15:48
  and then we'll take that $1.10 and we'll go into the next,
• 15:50
  uh,
• 15:50
  the next round,
• 15:50
  and we'll hopefully do the same thing over and over and over again.
• 15:52
  You start doing that
• 15:53
  enough,
• 15:54
  you wind up with 30%,
• 15:55
  40%,
• 15:55
  50%,
• 15:55
  60% profits,
• 15:56
  and then you have a much bigger bankroll as we go into November.
• 15:59
  Um,
• 15:59
  uh,
• 16:00
  I want to go through a couple other races.
• 16:03
  Uh,
• 16:03
  Virginia
• 16:04
  is up as well.
• 16:06
  The Republicans is another one of these examples where it seems like
• 16:09
  one candidate,
• 16:11
  uh,
• 16:11
  in the Republican,
• 16:12
  uh,
• 16:12
  Senate primary.
• 16:13
  Um,
• 16:14
  one candidate is,
• 16:15
  is way ahead.
• 16:16
  This is,
• 16:16
  uh,
• 16:17
  Bert Misusawa.
• 16:18
  He's at about 94 right now,
• 16:20
  uh,
• 16:21
  on Calshi,
• 16:22
  uh,
• 16:22
  and he's been rising.
• 16:24
  His his fundraising seems to be,
• 16:27
  uh,
• 16:27
  well ahead.
• 16:28
  He seems to be the kind of,
• 16:29
  uh,
• 16:30
  consensus choice of the Republicans.
• 16:32
  And is sitting there at 94% to win
• 16:36
  this race,
• 16:37
  coming from sort of a more national defense sort of
• 16:41
  profile,
• 16:42
  which obviously does relatively well
• 16:44
  in Virginia.
• 16:45
  Uh,
• 16:45
  the opponent Kim Farrington kind of more
• 16:48
  giving a little fiscal conservative vibes.
• 16:51
  Uh,
• 16:51
  I,
• 16:51
  I think at the end of the day though,
• 16:53
  Mr.
• 16:53
  Sawa probably again
• 16:55
  another candidate.
• 16:55
  I probably would like this race more,
• 16:58
  uh,
• 16:58
  or at least as much as I do El Sayed despite the fact that there's a 15 point lead.
• 17:02
  There's not much polling honestly available on a lot of these races,
• 17:05
  so you're going.
• 17:07
  It's always difficult in these situations because polling is really expensive.
• 17:10
  It's hard to get people on the phone,
• 17:12
  and there's just not as much of it anymore.
• 17:13
  It's harder to know what's going on.
• 17:15
  You start looking behind the scenes.
• 17:17
  This is why we do deep dives.
• 17:18
  It's,
• 17:18
  you know,
• 17:19
  it's why I think a show like this is
• 17:21
  valuable and I wanted to do it.
• 17:23
  Because anybody can just look at a bunch of polls and just say,
• 17:25
  OK,
• 17:26
  well,
• 17:26
  this guy's ahead,
• 17:26
  this guy's behind,
• 17:27
  but you have to go
• 17:28
  a little bit deeper than that because,
• 17:30
  you know,
• 17:30
  there's just not polling in a lot of these races these days.
• 17:33
  Fundraising is key,
• 17:34
  fundamentals are key.
• 17:36
  What are their arguments,
• 17:36
  what's connecting with people
• 17:38
  and reading those tea leaves is,
• 17:39
  is a bit of an art form,
• 17:41
  but,
• 17:41
  you know,
• 17:41
  that's really what you have right now in a lot of these races.
• 17:44
  Um,
• 17:45
  let me give you,
• 17:47
  looking through my notes here momentarily.
• 17:49
  Do we have the,
• 17:50
  let me give you another race that's kind of in the same situation.
• 17:53
  And this one's interesting.
• 17:54
  This is uh the Tennessee
• 17:56
  gubernatorial primary for Republicans,
• 17:59
  and I'm giving you these picks.
• 18:00
  These aren't necessarily the closest races.
• 18:02
  I can give you closer races,
• 18:04
  but,
• 18:05
  uh,
• 18:05
  this is another interesting one,
• 18:07
  and it,
• 18:07
  it has an interesting update today.
• 18:10
  Marsha Blackburn is at 92.4% to become the Republican gubernatorial nominee,
• 18:16
  sort of a heavy favorite,
• 18:18
  right,
• 18:18
  coming in,
• 18:18
  into this race.
• 18:19
  She's a very well-known figure in Tennessee.
• 18:22
  She had a,
• 18:22
  a,
• 18:23
  a pretty disastrous interview where she looked very awkward
• 18:27
  and,
• 18:27
  you know,
• 18:28
  it certainly wasn't Joe Biden debate type stuff,
• 18:30
  but it wasn't good.
• 18:31
  And
• 18:32
  there was a little bit of a hesitancy,
• 18:34
  um,
• 18:34
  and you see,
• 18:35
  she's still been hanging in the 90s most of this time.
• 18:38
  Can we go,
• 18:38
  uh,
• 18:38
  can we zoom in here,
• 18:39
  Adam?
• 18:39
  Give me a week uh on this chart and see what that weeklong looks like.
• 18:43
  What you see,
• 18:43
  go back to the highest points from Blackburn I think July 27th.
• 18:47
  You see her at 98.6%. This has been a sure thing for a while.
• 18:51
  That this race was going to be a sure thing.
• 18:53
  And what you see now as of today,
• 18:56
  Marsha Blackburn has dropped from that 98.6% down
• 18:59
  to 92.4%. The reason why that's happened,
• 19:02
  I believe,
• 19:03
  is basically one poll,
• 19:06
  and a poll came out,
• 19:08
  uh,
• 19:08
  I think it was today or maybe it was last night
• 19:11
  that showed Blackburn only up by 4 points in this race.
• 19:16
  And,
• 19:17
  you know,
• 19:17
  when you have a situation where it's only a 4-point race,
• 19:19
  you'd say,
• 19:20
  well,
• 19:20
  there is doubt right there,
• 19:22
  but this poll has every
• 19:24
  earmark to me of the type of poll that you should probably disregard.
• 19:28
  Now,
• 19:29
  again,
• 19:29
  I could eat my words on this.
• 19:30
  Keep this,
• 19:31
  keep this,
• 19:31
  the,
• 19:32
  uh,
• 19:32
  the,
• 19:32
  uh the market up on the screen.
• 19:34
  Uh,
• 19:35
  because then they can't pull a shot of me,
• 19:38
  uh,
• 19:38
  getting this wrong,
• 19:39
  if I'm wrong.
• 19:39
  Uh,
• 19:40
  but no,
• 19:40
  I'm only kidding.
• 19:41
  Uh,
• 19:41
  but if you see that at 92.4%,
• 19:43
  the reason why
• 19:44
  this 4-point race,
• 19:45
  it comes from there,
• 19:46
  let me give you a couple of these earmarks that I always look for.
• 19:49
  Number one,
• 19:50
  does it come,
• 19:50
  you can bring it back to me.
• 19:51
  I was only kidding about that.
• 19:54
  uh,
• 19:54
  uh,
• 19:55
  number one
• 19:55
  earmark is
• 19:57
  it comes from,
• 19:58
  not if it comes from a campaign.
• 20:02
  It's not,
• 20:03
  you don't totally throw it out.
• 20:06
  But you really push back on how,
• 20:09
  you don't know how this was conducted,
• 20:10
  you don't know how much they pushed.
• 20:13
  You don't know if they had 10 other polls
• 20:15
  that showed them behind that they didn't release.
• 20:17
  There's so much unknown from an internal poll.
• 20:19
  This is not an internal poll,
• 20:20
  however.
• 20:21
  It is,
• 20:21
  however,
• 20:22
  from an organization associated and has done work
• 20:25
  with the challenger here.
• 20:27
  So,
• 20:28
  again,
• 20:28
  that doesn't mean you throw it out.
• 20:31
  But a four-point race,
• 20:32
  uh,
• 20:32
  you know,
• 20:33
  is interesting,
• 20:34
  and totally out of line with every other poll that we've seen.
• 20:39
  So you have a real outlier that's coming in late in the race
• 20:42
  from a place that is associated with the challenger.
• 20:46
  In the same poll,
• 20:47
  you have tons and tons and tons of people who are undecided.
• 20:52
  Again
• 20:54
  Are they all gonna go,
• 20:55
  they'd all have to go,
• 20:56
  basically,
• 20:57
  or,
• 20:57
  you know,
• 20:57
  a good chunk of them
• 20:58
  would have to go to the challenger here.
• 21:00
  Blackburn is a well-known figure,
• 21:02
  uh,
• 21:03
  it would be very surprising if she were to not
• 21:05
  get a bunch of the people who were undecided,
• 21:08
  but that does occasionally happen.
• 21:10
  The third thing is,
• 21:12
  and I,
• 21:13
  I don't know,
• 21:13
  this is just me,
• 21:14
  but when you come out with a poll
• 21:15
  that's either internal or associated with the campaign.
• 21:18
  And even in that poll,
• 21:20
  you're still not winning,
• 21:23
  right?
• 21:23
  Like you have an outlier poll that's everyone's like,
• 21:25
  wait a minute,
• 21:26
  she was up by 20 or 30 points a minute ago,
• 21:28
  now she's only up by 4.
• 21:29
  Crazy movement in a,
• 21:31
  in a,
• 21:31
  in a,
• 21:31
  in a direction that way.
• 21:33
  And then you still couldn't win
• 21:35
  in the poll that you're releasing.
• 21:37
  All three of those things combined to me to say,
• 21:39
  you know what,
• 21:40
  I don't buy it.
• 21:42
  Could be wrong on this.
• 21:42
  I've got a medium position on Blackburn right now,
• 21:46
  and that was,
• 21:47
  uh,
• 21:47
  some of that was in the even higher than 92% range.
• 21:50
  Um,
• 21:51
  I think my average is right around 92%.
• 21:53
  I am considering building that into a large position on Blackburn.
• 21:57
  Just because I don't buy that poll.
• 21:59
  Now,
• 21:59
  I,
• 21:59
  I might get scared away from that if I saw,
• 22:01
  you know,
• 22:01
  if Emerson released a poll where it was 4 points,
• 22:03
  uh,
• 22:04
  uh,
• 22:04
  you know,
• 22:04
  I,
• 22:04
  that I would be much more hesitant to build a larger position.
• 22:08
  I still think she probably wins the race,
• 22:10
  but,
• 22:10
  uh,
• 22:11
  I would be a little more hesitant.
• 22:12
  This poll in particular though,
• 22:13
  I think is,
• 22:13
  is the reason why we're seeing a drop from 99 to 92,
• 22:16
  and it gives you an opportunity to jump into a race that has been thought
• 22:19
  of as a sure thing for months and months and months and months and months,
• 22:22
  and all of a sudden,
• 22:22
  there's a little profit there.
• 22:23
  So that's,
• 22:24
  I think one you should look at,
• 22:25
  and that's Thursday.
• 22:26
  So you have about a Week
• 22:27
  um
• 22:28
  uh in that uh in that race to see if anything new develops you can always just build
• 22:32
  what I like to do and you'll see this as I
• 22:35
  release all of my picks here in the next few days,
• 22:37
  uh,
• 22:38
  on the paid subscription.
• 22:39
  One of the things I like to do is
• 22:41
  I don't lock in a specific position size as I for a very long time.
• 22:46
  I will start almost every position with a marker position where it's very,
• 22:50
  very small,
• 22:50
  just marking the race,
• 22:51
  that's it,
• 22:52
  um,
• 22:53
  you know,
• 22:53
  a few,
• 22:54
  a few shares,
• 22:54
  a few dollars,
• 22:55
  just something so I can remind myself,
• 22:57
  I will build that into a small position,
• 22:58
  often build it into a medium and build it into a large and
• 23:01
  build it into an all-in if that's what I decide to do.
• 23:04
  I don't do that all at once.
• 23:05
  I very rarely will go all in on a race the first time I see it.
• 23:08
  Like,
• 23:08
  I want to have layers and layers,
• 23:09
  and I want to have that time.
• 23:11
  To check my own
• 23:13
  mind,
• 23:14
  to check my own heart,
• 23:15
  make sure I'm not,
• 23:16
  uh,
• 23:16
  you know,
• 23:16
  investing with my heart.
• 23:17
  That's another,
• 23:18
  uh,
• 23:19
  yeah,
• 23:20
  where is it?
• 23:21
  Come on,
• 23:21
  you guys know this one by now.
• 23:22
  Don't invest with your heart.
• 23:23
  It's on here somewhere.
• 23:24
  There it is,
• 23:24
  12th Amendment.
• 23:25
  Don't invest with your heart.
• 23:27
  I wanna make sure I'm not doing that.
• 23:29
  I wanna make sure I've got more data.
• 23:30
  I wanna make sure there's another,
• 23:32
  uh,
• 23:32
  on here which is time versus risk.
• 23:33
  You don't have to keep pulling this up if you don't want to.
• 23:35
  5th Amendment.
• 23:36
  The 5th Amendment is time versus risk.
• 23:37
  All those are factors.
• 23:39
  Um,
• 23:40
  to make sure
• 23:41
  that we have,
• 23:42
  uh,
• 23:43
  um,
• 23:43
  that your,
• 23:45
  your analysis is sound
• 23:47
  and you're not screwing this up.
• 23:48
  Look,
• 23:48
  this is one of the reasons why,
• 23:50
  and I don't,
• 23:50
  I don't know that we don't have the graphic handy right now,
• 23:52
  but this is the reasons why I've only won or I've only lost
• 23:56
  one position
• 23:57
  this entire.
• 23:58
  Um,
• 23:59
  season
• 24:00
  when I get to a medium size.
• 24:02
  I think we're 47 and 1 on those positions.
• 24:04
  The reason why we are 47-1 is because I
• 24:07
  keep obsessively checking this and reassessing and making sure
• 24:10
  nothing's changed in a way that made me nervous.
• 24:12
  El Sayed,
• 24:13
  I probably would have built.
• 24:14
  A larger position on that,
• 24:16
  but the,
• 24:16
  the information changed enough
• 24:18
  to make me hesitate on that.
• 24:20
  Now,
• 24:20
  is that going to cost me some money in this election?
• 24:22
  The chances are probably yes,
• 24:24
  in that like I'm going to have lower profits on that election
• 24:28
  than I would have liked to.
• 24:31
  I would have,
• 24:31
  you know,
• 24:32
  I,
• 24:32
  I,
• 24:32
  but
• 24:33
  I will take that every single time over losing.
• 24:35
  And so that's what we try to keep you away from.
• 24:37
  If you want those picks,
• 24:39
  they'll be out in the next few days.
• 24:40
  Predictableshow.com.
• 24:42
  Go there,
• 24:43
  subscribe.
• 24:43
  You can subscribe monthly,
• 24:44
  you can subscribe for the year and save some money.
• 24:47
  Um,
• 24:48
  so we would really appreciate it if,
• 24:49
  if you did that.
• 24:50
  If it's gonna give you value,
• 24:51
  obviously,
• 24:52
  like I,
• 24:52
  you know,
• 24:53
  uh,
• 24:53
  I mean,
• 24:53
  look,
• 24:54
  uh,
• 24:54
  I'm a capitalist.
• 24:55
  I do enjoy currency.
• 24:57
  That being said,
• 24:58
  you know,
• 24:58
  if it's not the type of thing that's gonna,
• 24:59
  you know,
• 25:00
  give you value,
• 25:01
  uh,
• 25:01
  then no problem.
• 25:02
  Hang out.
• 25:03
  Here,
• 25:03
  watch the show when,
• 25:04
  when you can.
• 25:05
  Go over to YouTube,
• 25:06
  uh,
• 25:06
  listen to podcasts.
• 25:08
  We love that you're here for that as well.
• 25:10
  Uh,
• 25:10
  but if you are looking to,
• 25:11
  you know,
• 25:12
  take your stuff to the next level,
• 25:13
  if you're looking to actually make this part of your portfolio,
• 25:15
  if you're looking to try to grow what you're,
• 25:17
  what you're doing,
• 25:18
  we're not an investment advice show,
• 25:19
  but I'm gonna share what I do
• 25:21
  and you can decide whether I'm an idiot or not.
• 25:23
  That's sort of the standard that we provide here,
• 25:25
  uh,
• 25:25
  predictable show.
• 25:26
  So predictableShow.com for that
• 25:28
  and we have a lot more including
• 25:30
  Uh,
• 25:31
  Tim Walls,
• 25:31
  what is he doing?
• 25:32
  He's trying to make sure,
• 25:33
  if you're in Minnesota right now,
• 25:34
  you definitely want to know this information
• 25:36
  and a crazy,
• 25:37
  crazy situation in a prediction market.
• 25:40
  Uh,
• 25:40
  I don't think,
• 25:40
  I mean,
• 25:40
  it's just a wild thing that costs people millions
• 25:43
  of dollars and there's a big caution flag,
• 25:45
  uh,
• 25:45
  there as well as to make sure you're really,
• 25:48
  really careful.
• 25:49
  Uh,
• 25:49
  we'll talk to you about that next.
• 26:03
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 26:06
  Some big developments uh on
• 26:08
  the prediction market uh legal front.
• 26:11
  Uh,
• 26:11
  breaking,
• 26:12
  CFTC loses fight to protect Calci in Washington Prediction Markets case.
• 26:17
  Now,
• 26:17
  the,
• 26:18
  uh,
• 26:18
  basically,
• 26:20
  all these states are saying,
• 26:21
  well,
• 26:21
  we don't like prediction markets and therefore we don't want them in our states.
• 26:26
  And,
• 26:26
  you know,
• 26:26
  look,
• 26:27
  I understand that.
• 26:28
  I'm a big fan of,
• 26:29
  uh,
• 26:30
  federalism.
• 26:30
  I think that states should be able to make their own rules with some exceptions,
• 26:35
  like,
• 26:36
  particularly the ones outlined in our constitution.
• 26:38
  And one of the things outlined in our constitution quite clearly.
• 26:40
  Is that when you have a market,
• 26:41
  a national market like this,
• 26:43
  you can't just ban people
• 26:44
  from participating in it.
• 26:46
  Um,
• 26:46
  you know,
• 26:47
  you think of an example like,
• 26:48
  uh,
• 26:49
  you know,
• 26:49
  the New York Stock Exchange or,
• 26:50
  uh,
• 26:51
  NASDAQ.
• 26:52
  Like what if somebody just said,
• 26:53
  you know what,
• 26:54
  we think
• 26:54
  the NASDAQ is gambling,
• 26:56
  so
• 26:57
  people in Idaho can no longer invest in any
• 27:00
  company that's on the NASDAQ exchange.
• 27:03
  This would
• 27:03
  obviously be unconstitutional and completely wrong,
• 27:06
  but what,
• 27:07
  what they're trying to do here
• 27:09
  is,
• 27:10
  you know,
• 27:10
  because it's,
• 27:11
  it's a new innovation,
• 27:13
  uh,
• 27:13
  you know,
• 27:13
  every one of these new innovations has its opponents,
• 27:16
  and,
• 27:17
  you know,
• 27:17
  the same thing happened with cryptocurrency,
• 27:19
  same thing happened,
• 27:20
  uh,
• 27:20
  every time there's a new thing,
• 27:21
  right?
• 27:21
  Somebody wants to ban it.
• 27:23
  That is what,
• 27:23
  uh,
• 27:24
  politicians in our country do.
• 27:26
  This case
• 27:26
  is.
• 27:27
  Like,
• 27:28
  I think that the law is clear on this.
• 27:29
  The CFTC has,
• 27:32
  you know,
• 27:33
  unilateral ability to regulate these markets,
• 27:37
  and I do think that when we get to the end of this road,
• 27:39
  and it will take years,
• 27:41
  uh,
• 27:42
  you know,
• 27:42
  we get to the Supreme Court eventually,
• 27:44
  they will rule that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction
• 27:48
  over these markets.
• 27:50
  That's gonna take a long time and there's gonna be a lot of people,
• 27:53
  particularly on the far left,
• 27:54
  uh,
• 27:55
  though maybe not exclusively.
• 27:56
  I,
• 27:56
  I could also see,
• 27:57
  uh,
• 27:57
  at some point,
• 27:58
  there are some opponents to prediction markets as well who just,
• 28:00
  you know,
• 28:01
  fall for what I believe is just the hype on them,
• 28:03
  which is like,
• 28:03
  oh gosh,
• 28:04
  everyone,
• 28:04
  everyone,
• 28:05
  every 19 year old is losing all their money,
• 28:07
  uh,
• 28:07
  gambling on sports.
• 28:08
  Like that's a
• 28:09
  A,
• 28:10
  a,
• 28:10
  a false,
• 28:11
  um,
• 28:12
  uh,
• 28:13
  argument in my,
• 28:14
  in my,
• 28:15
  um,
• 28:15
  opinion,
• 28:15
  and we've,
• 28:16
  you know,
• 28:16
  I believe debunked it many,
• 28:17
  many times,
• 28:18
  but we'll maybe we'll do that again in a future episode.
• 28:21
  The one thing I just want to make clear on this particular ruling
• 28:23
  is that this is just
• 28:25
  whether the injunction holds or not.
• 28:27
  Basically,
• 28:27
  um,
• 28:28
  you know,
• 28:28
  they,
• 28:29
  there is a legal.
• 28:30
  Battle going on.
• 28:31
  Wisconsin said,
• 28:32
  well,
• 28:32
  you can't use those things here,
• 28:34
  and the courts are basically saying,
• 28:36
  well,
• 28:36
  until this is decided,
• 28:37
  uh,
• 28:38
  we'll let the injunction go through,
• 28:39
  we'll let the uh ban go through
• 28:41
  until it's decided.
• 28:42
  Calci basically has to come and say,
• 28:44
  or the CFTC
• 28:45
  has to come and say,
• 28:46
  um,
• 28:47
  hey,
• 28:47
  wait a minute,
• 28:48
  we,
• 28:49
  uh,
• 28:49
  we'll have irreparable harm.
• 28:51
  If you close these things down for a month
• 28:54
  and the judge disagreed with that.
• 28:55
  We'll see if that holds.
• 28:56
  I,
• 28:56
  I,
• 28:56
  you know,
• 28:57
  again,
• 28:57
  I,
• 28:57
  on a legal,
• 28:58
  from a legal perspective,
• 28:59
  I would not be surprised at some point if
• 29:01
  there is some sort of clarification through the law,
• 29:04
  some sort of clarification that,
• 29:06
  that,
• 29:06
  that puts
• 29:07
  barriers around certain parts of prediction markets,
• 29:11
  um,
• 29:11
  but I don't think you're gonna be able to just say in a state,
• 29:13
  no.
• 29:15
  No,
• 29:15
  we're not,
• 29:16
  you can't do it here.
• 29:17
  Uh,
• 29:17
  can a town do that?
• 29:19
  Can,
• 29:19
  you know,
• 29:19
  can I,
• 29:20
  if,
• 29:20
  uh,
• 29:21
  can I,
• 29:22
  uh,
• 29:22
  you know,
• 29:22
  a county do it?
• 29:23
  I mean,
• 29:23
  what,
• 29:23
  what,
• 29:24
  what is the limit here?
• 29:25
  You should be able to invest in things,
• 29:27
  you know,
• 29:27
  if other people are making money on stuff,
• 29:29
  you shouldn't be able,
• 29:30
  you know,
• 29:30
  just tossed out to the side and not be able to participate in a national market.
• 29:33
  That's just not the way this works.
• 29:35
  And so I think all these states know this.
• 29:37
  They're gonna try anyway.
• 29:38
  It's gonna give them
• 29:39
  one,
• 29:39
  the talking point where they can say how nice
• 29:41
  they are and how they're protecting our children.
• 29:43
  Of course,
• 29:44
  we'll get that argument.
• 29:45
  And then number 2,
• 29:46
  you know,
• 29:47
  it doesn't really hurt them to try.
• 29:49
  A lot of times you see this from states.
• 29:51
  They know,
• 29:52
  hey,
• 29:52
  we obviously know the Second Amendment has stood up in the Supreme
• 29:55
  Court over and over and over and over and over again,
• 29:57
  but our new gun ban is going to survive it
• 29:59
  and then it gets shot down eventually by the courts,
• 30:02
  uh,
• 30:02
  maybe legally,
• 30:03
  uh,
• 30:03
  almost literally in this case when we're talking about the 2nd Amendment.
• 30:06
  But so this happens all the time.
• 30:08
  It's just a waiting game.
• 30:09
  We,
• 30:09
  we've seen another example of this in Minnesota.
• 30:11
  No surprise Tim Walls would do something stupid.
• 30:13
  Federal judge blocking Minnesota's prediction market ban three days before
• 30:16
  it took effect.
• 30:17
  So,
• 30:17
  Minnesota passed this law,
• 30:18
  said you can't use prediction markets at all.
• 30:20
  Uh,
• 30:21
  it was signed in by Tim Walls,
• 30:23
  and of course,
• 30:23
  in the period before it was launched,
• 30:25
  the courts came in and said,
• 30:26
  well,
• 30:26
  wait a minute.
• 30:28
  You're not paying attention to any of our laws in this country,
• 30:30
  so no,
• 30:31
  you can't do that.
• 30:32
  So kind of the reverse of Wisconsin,
• 30:34
  basically,
• 30:34
  they said the prediction market ban cannot go into effect
• 30:37
  as it was supposed to.
• 30:38
  Tim Wall's dumb response because he's a moron and said,
• 30:41
  Tim,
• 30:41
  uh,
• 30:42
  he said he's going to ban state employees
• 30:43
  from using insider information to place bets.
• 30:45
  This is a very effective executive order
• 30:48
  because what it does is it bans something that's already illegal.
• 30:50
  Um,
• 30:51
  and it's always important to ban something that's already illegal.
• 30:53
  I always think of this,
• 30:54
  uh,
• 30:54
  with the gun laws as well.
• 30:56
  Maybe they could ban murder someday.
• 30:58
  I don't know,
• 30:59
  maybe an executive order from Tim Walls banning murder.
• 31:01
  Now he'd have to make exceptions for all of his friends
• 31:04
  and all of the people who are burning down police stations and shooting at officers,
• 31:07
  that's apparently fine.
• 31:09
  Uh,
• 31:09
  so you gotta make the exceptions for that,
• 31:10
  of course,
• 31:11
  on the Tim Walls bandwagon,
• 31:12
  but actually murders already illegal.
• 31:14
  And so you don't need to ban murder.
• 31:16
  You don't need to ban
• 31:17
  murder of certain individuals.
• 31:19
  Murder's just murder,
• 31:21
  and that's already illegal.
• 31:22
  The same thing here,
• 31:23
  insider trading with insider information,
• 31:25
  whether you're a state employee or not,
• 31:27
  is already illegal.
• 31:28
  You're not allowed to do it.
• 31:30
  If you're thinking of doing it,
• 31:31
  doing it,
• 31:32
  don't do it.
• 31:33
  Uh,
• 31:33
  we've seen examples of,
• 31:34
  of people.
• 31:35
  There's just another case,
• 31:36
  uh,
• 31:36
  the other day.
• 31:36
  Kalshi,
• 31:37
  uh,
• 31:37
  I think it was,
• 31:38
  turned in.
• 31:39
  Um,
• 31:40
  uh,
• 31:40
  people,
• 31:40
  uh,
• 31:41
  uh,
• 31:41
  I mean,
• 31:41
  we know very recently the,
• 31:43
  the,
• 31:43
  uh,
• 31:43
  the prompt the teleprompter operator,
• 31:46
  uh,
• 31:46
  for the president of the United States,
• 31:47
  to give you one famous example,
• 31:49
  was,
• 31:50
  uh,
• 31:50
  was hit with,
• 31:51
  uh,
• 31:51
  with this and,
• 31:52
  and
• 31:53
  seems to have lost his job.
• 31:54
  I mean,
• 31:55
  I'm not 100% sure on that.
• 31:56
  He was,
• 31:56
  he was put on leave,
• 31:58
  uh,
• 31:58
  maybe,
• 31:58
  you know,
• 31:59
  pending an investigation,
• 32:00
  uh,
• 32:01
  so I don't know if that's 100% official,
• 32:03
  but.
• 32:04
  That's a big gig,
• 32:05
  and he just blew it.
• 32:05
  Uh,
• 32:06
  so
• 32:06
  don't do that stuff if you're thinking about it.
• 32:08
  OK,
• 32:09
  um,
• 32:09
  let me give you just for fun,
• 32:10
  a couple of Tim Walls markets.
• 32:13
  I actually have a position in one of these markets as well,
• 32:15
  uh,
• 32:15
  on Tim Walls.
• 32:16
  Let's go to,
• 32:16
  uh,
• 32:16
  do we have,
• 32:17
  uh,
• 32:17
  will he be out of office or resign,
• 32:18
  what,
• 32:19
  however it's worded.
• 32:20
  Um,
• 32:20
  this is,
• 32:21
  uh,
• 32:22
  a market on Tim Walls
• 32:24
  resigning,
• 32:25
  uh,
• 32:25
  from the,
• 32:26
  uh,
• 32:27
  uh,
• 32:28
  gubernatorial.
• 32:29
  He's going to be leaving anyway.
• 32:30
  He already bailed out of the race.
• 32:31
  Uh,
• 32:32
  will he,
• 32:32
  yeah,
• 32:33
  now they have a race,
• 32:33
  you can get in this tonight.
• 32:35
  Will Tim Walls resign by tonight?
• 32:38
  I'm gonna go with no.
• 32:39
  And of course,
• 32:39
  I don't think,
• 32:40
  click on July 31st,
• 32:41
  so there's no way there's any,
• 32:42
  any,
• 32:42
  uh,
• 32:42
  volume in there,
• 32:43
  right?
• 32:43
  Yeah,
• 32:44
  uh,
• 32:44
  go,
• 32:45
  uh,
• 32:45
  you,
• 32:45
  can you buy yes at 0.1%?
• 32:48
  Go click on that,
• 32:48
  uh,
• 32:49
  yeah,
• 32:49
  I don't think so.
• 32:50
  Um,
• 32:51
  I don't think there's any chance that you can actually scroll down.
• 32:53
  Is there an order book there somewhere?
• 32:55
  Uh,
• 32:56
  I don't know where we are.
• 32:56
  We're just looking at this live,
• 32:57
  obviously.
• 32:58
  Uh,
• 32:59
  OK,
• 32:59
  and I go back to,
• 33:00
  uh,
• 33:00
  so,
• 33:00
  by the way,
• 33:01
  I have a no position on Tim Walls resigning.
• 33:03
  Um,
• 33:03
  I had,
• 33:04
  I've already won a couple of these because I just didn't buy it.
• 33:08
  Tim Walls is,
• 33:09
  this is it for him.
• 33:10
  By far the most significant thing he'll ever do in his life is being stupidly named
• 33:15
  as vice presidential nominee.
• 33:16
  And secondly is this Minnesota gig.
• 33:18
  He's already had to abandon
• 33:20
  the rest of his position
• 33:22
  or his potential run.
• 33:23
  He wanted to run for reelection and has now abandoned that.
• 33:26
  We talked to Scottylicious the other day,
• 33:28
  the trader,
• 33:28
  um,
• 33:29
  made a couple of million dollars on prediction markets,
• 33:31
  and he said one of his biggest wins was Joe Biden
• 33:35
  not resigning
• 33:36
  the presidency.
• 33:37
  Remember,
• 33:37
  of course,
• 33:37
  he dropped out of the race,
• 33:38
  but he stayed as president.
• 33:40
  And you know,
• 33:40
  I think he had a solid reasoning for that because
• 33:43
  you think about these guys who live and die
• 33:46
  by having this power.
• 33:47
  When they live and die by having this power,
• 33:49
  they don't want to give it up.
• 33:50
  Honestly,
• 33:51
  I was,
• 33:51
  I lost some money on Joe Biden even stepping out of the race based on that same idea,
• 33:56
  but I did wind up making uh some on,
• 33:58
  on him not resigning as well,
• 34:00
  not,
• 34:00
  not as much as Scottylicious,
• 34:01
  uh,
• 34:02
  because he.
• 34:03
  He goes a little bigger than I do,
• 34:04
  I gotta say.
• 34:05
  But that being said,
• 34:06
  it is a,
• 34:07
  it's,
• 34:07
  it's a,
• 34:08
  you know,
• 34:08
  again,
• 34:09
  thinking,
• 34:09
  one of the problems that people uh get into
• 34:12
  a lot of times when it comes to
• 34:14
  everything from prediction markets to analyzing
• 34:18
  what
• 34:19
  Iran will do in a war,
• 34:20
  right?
• 34:21
  We tend to analyze these things as
• 34:23
  what would I do in that situation.
• 34:26
  Right?
• 34:26
  So,
• 34:27
  uh,
• 34:27
  you know,
• 34:27
  Iran,
• 34:28
  like,
• 34:28
  what would I do?
• 34:29
  Well,
• 34:29
  I,
• 34:29
  I'm getting bombed.
• 34:30
  I wanna stop.
• 34:30
  I wanna make a deal,
• 34:31
  right?
• 34:31
  But Iran,
• 34:32
  being an ideological,
• 34:33
  theological society that's run by a bunch of people who,
• 34:37
  uh,
• 34:38
  you know,
• 34:38
  in my view,
• 34:39
  insane,
• 34:40
  um,
• 34:41
  they have a totally different way of thinking about this,
• 34:43
  right?
• 34:43
  So they react differently.
• 34:44
  The same thing goes on with the prediction markets.
• 34:45
  If you're thinking to yourself,
• 34:46
  well,
• 34:46
  if I were Tim Walls,
• 34:47
  I'd,
• 34:47
  I'd resign immediately.
• 34:48
  I'm a disaster.
• 34:49
  Uh,
• 34:49
  first of all,
• 34:50
  you'd be right about that.
• 34:51
  He should resign immediately because he is a disaster,
• 34:53
  a little sidebar on that one.
• 34:54
  But secondarily,
• 34:56
  You have to think about it,
• 34:56
  how,
• 34:57
  how,
• 34:57
  how Tim Walls will,
• 34:58
  will think about this.
• 34:59
  Um,
• 35:00
  most of the time that plays out pretty well.
• 35:02
  If you can kind of get in the head of the person
• 35:04
  and think about their incentive structure,
• 35:06
  usually you wind up winning.
• 35:07
  Now,
• 35:07
  I did lose a little bit on Graham Plattner with that,
• 35:10
  that mindset,
• 35:10
  thinking to myself,
• 35:12
  what's the upside of Graham Plattner.
• 35:14
  Abandoning this race.
• 35:15
  Why?
• 35:16
  Um,
• 35:17
  you know,
• 35:17
  I had won some earlier on the Graham Plattner,
• 35:19
  um,
• 35:20
  with,
• 35:20
  with the Plattner play,
• 35:21
  famously the Plattner play.
• 35:22
  We won a lot on that,
• 35:23
  so I gave a little bit of those profits back
• 35:25
  on a long shot,
• 35:26
  thought that maybe he would decide to stay in at the last minute.
• 35:29
  It didn't happen.
• 35:29
  And now he's just the neighborhood rapist,
• 35:31
  right?
• 35:32
  He,
• 35:32
  he's no longer the candidate.
• 35:33
  He no longer gets support from the party.
• 35:35
  He's now just the neighborhood oysterman rapist.
• 35:38
  Uh,
• 35:38
  and I don't know that that's better,
• 35:40
  uh,
• 35:40
  than staying in the race and dealing with a little
• 35:42
  heat that you would have had for another week,
• 35:44
  but he's a moron,
• 35:44
  so I'm not surprised he did what he did.
• 35:46
  Anyway,
• 35:47
  that's my analysis of that particular situation.
• 35:49
  Do we have the other Tim Walls?
• 35:50
  Uh,
• 35:50
  will he get arrested,
• 35:52
  market?
• 35:52
  Uh,
• 35:53
  this is,
• 35:53
  well,
• 35:53
  actually this is,
• 35:53
  will he be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
• 35:57
  The yes is at 8%.
• 35:59
  Um,
• 36:01
  I get nervous honestly like Trump has,
• 36:03
  has a little bit intimidated me out of some
• 36:05
  of these arrest markets because normally I would say they're
• 36:08
  he's not gonna just charge Tim Walls with a federal crime.
• 36:12
  But he kind of does like charging these people with federal crimes
• 36:15
  quite a bit,
• 36:16
  and it doesn't mean he's going to get convicted or,
• 36:18
  you know,
• 36:18
  go through the courts.
• 36:19
  I don't know what Tim Walls has done that's uh illegal.
• 36:22
  I know he's done a lot of things that are dumb.
• 36:23
  I would not be surprised at all if he has done many things that are illegal.
• 36:27
  Uh,
• 36:27
  the corruption scandal in,
• 36:28
  in his state is,
• 36:29
  is very,
• 36:30
  uh,
• 36:31
  is,
• 36:31
  you know,
• 36:32
  very well known.
• 36:34
  But that was enough to get him to drop out of the race.
• 36:36
  Is it enough to actually convict him of crimes?
• 36:38
  I don't know.
• 36:39
  Uh,
• 36:39
  but that is where this is.
• 36:41
  By the way,
• 36:41
  that big jump,
• 36:42
  I think it was,
• 36:42
  uh,
• 36:43
  when he,
• 36:44
  they found out he had pardoned,
• 36:45
  uh,
• 36:45
  what was it,
• 36:46
  a rapist?
• 36:46
  I think it was a rapist,
• 36:47
  some terrible criminal,
• 36:49
  and it went up to about 30% for a little while.
• 36:52
  Uh,
• 36:53
  I didn't notice that market at the time.
• 36:54
  I probably would have gone no on that at 30%.
• 36:58
  But whatever,
• 36:58
  it's at 8% now.
• 36:59
  I don't think,
• 37:00
  honestly,
• 37:00
  I think he can make more money in other places.
• 37:02
  Um,
• 37:03
  but do we have that whole market?
• 37:04
  Can you go back to that one more time,
• 37:05
  Adam,
• 37:05
  before we take a break?
• 37:06
  This is the,
• 37:07
  uh,
• 37:07
  that,
• 37:07
  uh,
• 37:08
  the arrest market again,
• 37:10
  yeah.
• 37:10
  Click on Tim Walls and let's get all the names
• 37:12
  cause there's a really wide list of names here.
• 37:15
  Uh,
• 37:15
  Mark Milli,
• 37:16
  uh,
• 37:17
  Keith Ellison,
• 37:18
  Adam Schiff,
• 37:19
  Reid Hoffman.
• 37:20
  I'll give you some of the higher,
• 37:22
  Alvin Bragg at 14%.
• 37:24
  Some of these are interesting.
• 37:25
  John Brennan,
• 37:26
  41%,
• 37:27
  Jack Smith,
• 37:28
  29%,
• 37:29
  Letitia James,
• 37:30
  29%.
• 37:31
  Ihan Omar,
• 37:32
  23%.
• 37:33
  Uh,
• 37:34
  you know,
• 37:35
  really,
• 37:35
  you have to think about
• 37:38
  whether
• 37:39
  you have to get inside of Trump's mind and,
• 37:41
  and the DOJ's mind to figure this out,
• 37:43
  which,
• 37:43
  who they're gonna be focused on.
• 37:45
  You know,
• 37:45
  Fauci is an interesting one.
• 37:46
  He's at 18%,
• 37:47
  he's up from 9%.
• 37:48
  The guy's pardoned,
• 37:50
  so
• 37:50
  the idea that he would actually go through and
• 37:53
  be
• 37:54
  uh charged with a federal crime,
• 37:56
  I think is incredibly unlikely in reality,
• 37:58
  at least as far as,
• 37:59
  uh,
• 38:00
  As far as being convicted,
• 38:02
  right?
• 38:03
  But,
• 38:04
  you know,
• 38:05
  sometimes Trump likes to send messages and uh,
• 38:07
  all he has to do is,
• 38:08
  uh,
• 38:09
  one of his guys who wants to either
• 38:11
  him wanting to do it or
• 38:12
  one of his guys that wants to impress him or get headlines,
• 38:15
  who knows.
• 38:16
  That uh it just takes one charge and then all of a sudden you're down a lot.
• 38:19
  So I don't know.
• 38:20
  There's some interesting names there.
• 38:21
  Maybe we should do a segment on this coming up,
• 38:23
  uh,
• 38:23
  so,
• 38:23
  uh,
• 38:24
  pretty soon.
• 38:24
  By the way,
• 38:25
  questions at uh predictableshow.com is the place to go.
• 38:27
  Send us,
• 38:28
  send me your email,
• 38:28
  send me,
• 38:29
  um,
• 38:29
  uh,
• 38:29
  your positions,
• 38:31
  your
• 38:31
  Your questions,
• 38:32
  whatever you want.
• 38:33
  I'd love to answer some of those for you on the air.
• 38:35
  Questions at predictableshow.com and of course,
• 38:38
  subscribe
• 38:39
  to PredictableShow.com.
• 38:41
  You can get the free stuff uh with your email address.
• 38:43
  There's a paid tier as well.
• 38:44
  Lots of good stuff I think you'll enjoy at predictableShow.com.
• 38:46
  OK,
• 38:46
  back in a second.
• 39:02
  Welcome to Stranger Trades where we tell you about some
• 39:05
  of the crazy stuff that goes on on prediction markets,
• 39:08
  and this is a doozy,
• 39:09
  I will tell you.
• 39:10
  Goes back to a,
• 39:12
  a baseball game,
• 39:13
  uh,
• 39:14
  uh,
• 39:15
  late Friday night into Saturday night,
• 39:16
  I think it was,
• 39:17
  so less than a week ago,
• 39:19
  between the San Francisco Giants,
• 39:22
  uh,
• 39:22
  and the Los Angeles Angels.
• 39:23
  So,
• 39:24
  the game's tied at 6,
• 39:25
  bases loaded,
• 39:25
  Rafael Devers is up.
• 39:29
  Let me tell you about how a lot of people do this,
• 39:31
  and I,
• 39:31
  I,
• 39:32
  I will say this is incredibly risky.
• 39:34
  This just might be me
• 39:35
  being a,
• 39:36
  a weirdo,
• 39:37
  uh,
• 39:37
  and not understanding the world of the future.
• 39:39
  I admit this.
• 39:40
  I have my problems with AI from time to time.
• 39:43
  But everybody wants a bot,
• 39:45
  right?
• 39:45
  If you go around and you look,
• 39:46
  you read about prediction markets enough.
• 39:48
  Everyone's trying to create an own,
• 39:49
  their own automated bot to win every single thing,
• 39:52
  and you can do this and you can do this on your own spare time,
• 39:54
  and I've made thousands and everyone's trying to sell you a bot.
• 39:57
  I don't know,
• 39:58
  maybe those things will be fantastic at one point.
• 40:01
  One of the ways that people will use a trading bot
• 40:04
  is they connect this to their Calci account.
• 40:06
  They connect it to their polymarket account and
• 40:08
  they make it make automated trades for them,
• 40:11
  OK?
• 40:12
  And one of the things that they will do is try
• 40:15
  to
• 40:16
  bond.
• 40:16
  The word is,
• 40:17
  the,
• 40:17
  the term they use in prediction markets often is bonding.
• 40:20
  And what that basically means is taking a
• 40:23
  sure thing
• 40:24
  and
• 40:25
  buying it at 99.3% or 98 or 99%.
• 40:30
  And just riding that tiny,
• 40:31
  tiny profit,
• 40:33
  uh,
• 40:33
  up into a dollar.
• 40:35
  Very,
• 40:35
  very easy to do if you know what you're doing and you're paying attention,
• 40:38
  uh,
• 40:38
  because sometimes there are reasons why those are available.
• 40:42
  You wouldn't think,
• 40:42
  well,
• 40:42
  why would anyone sell at $99 if they know they already won.
• 40:45
  Sometimes
• 40:46
  this happens a lot in the election margin markets
• 40:49
  where those,
• 40:50
  uh,
• 40:50
  won't resolve for a long time.
• 40:52
  I,
• 40:52
  I mentioned this with my LeBron James,
• 40:54
  will he retire or not position.
• 40:56
  Uh,
• 40:57
  I hit that one hopefully with you as well,
• 40:59
  uh,
• 41:00
  and it went up to,
• 41:01
  you know,
• 41:01
  97,
• 41:01
  98,
• 41:02
  but I sold
• 41:03
  almost all of it at 99 cents because I didn't want to hold it all the way till October.
• 41:07
  Uh,
• 41:07
  I think,
• 41:08
  uh,
• 41:08
  it was,
• 41:09
  was when they would actually pay that out
• 41:10
  because he could theoretically retire in 6 weeks,
• 41:12
  right?
• 41:13
  We don't know,
• 41:14
  even though he's already signed with a new team.
• 41:15
  Anyway,
• 41:16
  so.
• 41:17
  Bonding is that type of idea.
• 41:18
  You buy really,
• 41:19
  really high,
• 41:19
  really,
• 41:19
  really low,
• 41:20
  and there's a quote unquote,
• 41:21
  sure thing,
• 41:22
  and you ride that to the end.
• 41:24
  Now,
• 41:24
  our First Amendment of our Constitution is a sure thing,
• 41:27
  it always has air quotes.
• 41:29
  Sure thing,
• 41:29
  as was happening in this particular game.
• 41:32
  Why?
• 41:32
  Well,
• 41:32
  Rafael Devers was up.
• 41:34
  He hit the ball,
• 41:35
  by the way,
• 41:35
  benefiting my family.
• 41:36
  Fantasy baseball team as well,
• 41:37
  uh,
• 41:37
  hit the ball over the left fielder's head.
• 41:39
  It,
• 41:40
  uh,
• 41:40
  uh,
• 41:41
  it bounced,
• 41:42
  uh,
• 41:42
  right behind his head and then went over the wall.
• 41:44
  Now,
• 41:44
  if you know baseball,
• 41:45
  you know that's a ground rule double,
• 41:46
  right?
• 41:47
  Ground rule double
• 41:48
  in a situation where the bases are loaded,
• 41:50
  will score you two runs.
• 41:52
  OK.
• 41:53
  This is where it gets fascinating
• 41:55
  because
• 41:56
  The way,
• 41:58
  uh,
• 41:59
  some sites reported the result of the game was an 8 to 6 game.
• 42:04
  That's how
• 42:05
  the rules win.
• 42:06
  They,
• 42:06
  they walked it off,
• 42:07
  they got the 2 runs,
• 42:08
  right?
• 42:08
  It was a ground rule double.
• 42:09
  However,
• 42:11
  That reporting was incorrect.
• 42:13
  The over-under for that game was 13.5,
• 42:16
  so it went from under to over with that hit,
• 42:19
  because 2 runs scored.
• 42:21
  However,
• 42:22
  When you look at the rules of baseball,
• 42:24
  I,
• 42:25
  this is a rule I honestly didn't know as well.
• 42:27
  Um,
• 42:27
  when you have a walk-off situation,
• 42:30
  if you were to hit a home run,
• 42:31
  all those runs score,
• 42:32
  right?
• 42:32
  If you hit a grand slam in that situation,
• 42:35
  the final score would have been 10 to 6.
• 42:37
  However,
• 42:38
  if you hit a ground rule double in that situation,
• 42:41
  only enough score runs
• 42:43
  that,
• 42:44
  uh,
• 42:44
  will score,
• 42:45
  that actually need to score to end the game.
• 42:48
  It's a little quirk in the rules.
• 42:50
  Honestly,
• 42:50
  I didn't know even before this situation.
• 42:52
  But it went from
• 42:55
  8 to 6,
• 42:55
  as it was initially reported.
• 42:57
  The score then changed to 7 to 6 because
• 43:00
  they only needed the one run
• 43:02
  to uh actually win the game.
• 43:06
  What's fascinating about this
• 43:07
  is the trading bot situation.
• 43:10
  When the score was reported as 8 to 6,
• 43:13
  these automated trading bots flooded these markets
• 43:16
  and bought and bought and bought
• 43:18
  at 98 and 99 cents.
• 43:22
  There were people
• 43:24
  This is where we defeat the robots.
• 43:26
  This is where we defeat the uh the clones.
• 43:29
  There were people
• 43:31
  who knew the rule and realized,
• 43:32
  oh my gosh,
• 43:33
  this is gonna be a 7-6 game,
• 43:36
  and were able to buy an unlimited amount of shares.
• 43:40
  At 1 cent
• 43:41
  For this to be an under on that.
• 43:43
  There's a couple of other markets that were similar,
• 43:45
  but,
• 43:45
  you know,
• 43:45
  to keep it simple.
• 43:46
  Instead of the score being
• 43:48
  7-6,
• 43:48
  13 runs,
• 43:50
  uh,
• 43:50
  it was,
• 43:51
  they thought the bots thought it was 8-6,
• 43:52
  14 runs.
• 43:53
  And so the people who knew what was going on and realized this was an error,
• 43:57
  were able to just absolutely
• 44:00
  mash the buy button.
• 44:02
  I wish I saw this.
• 44:03
  This is like it happened at like 1 a.m. East Coast time.
• 44:05
  Uh,
• 44:06
  mashed the buy button
• 44:07
  to the tune of
• 44:09
  millions
• 44:11
  of dollars.
• 44:12
  These bots
• 44:13
  emptied out
• 44:15
  Dad's account,
• 44:16
  uh,
• 44:16
  whoever birthed these bots,
• 44:18
  emptied out these accounts because they kept buying at $99.99 dollars,
• 44:22
  $99 thinking it was a sure thing,
• 44:24
  while there were smart people,
• 44:26
  individuals with minds.
• 44:28
  Who are on the other side of those trades and loaded up and look,
• 44:31
  you know,
• 44:32
  you could sit here and you say,
• 44:33
  oh gosh,
• 44:33
  well,
• 44:33
  what a weird thing.
• 44:34
  This makes me nervous about using prediction markets.
• 44:36
  First of all,
• 44:36
  it is interesting that it,
• 44:37
  prediction markets once again,
• 44:39
  were able to deliver the information
• 44:42
  uh faster
• 44:44
  uh than even
• 44:45
  a website,
• 44:46
  uh,
• 44:46
  I think it was the official MLB site initially
• 44:49
  reporting the score.
• 44:50
  Uh,
• 44:51
  so that's kind of a fascinating thing.
• 44:52
  Um,
• 44:53
  but secondarily,
• 44:55
  once again,
• 44:56
  You have to be careful.
• 44:58
  Set limits.
• 44:58
  Make sure you're not putting too much in.
• 45:00
  And I will say,
• 45:01
  you could screw around with it.
• 45:02
  I have friends who,
• 45:03
  who are like,
• 45:03
  I'm gonna create this bot,
• 45:04
  it's gonna trade for me,
• 45:05
  it's gonna find opportunities,
• 45:06
  it's gonna trade for me.
• 45:08
  Do that.
• 45:08
  Make sure you're setting limits and do that at your own risk.
• 45:12
  Because,
• 45:12
  you know,
• 45:13
  just like anything else,
• 45:14
  if you're not involved in that process,
• 45:16
  you could be victimized by it.
• 45:18
  And you need to make sure that,
• 45:19
  that,
• 45:20
  that doesn't happen to you.
• 45:21
  I mean,
• 45:21
  we're,
• 45:21
  millions of dollars were lost on this.
• 45:23
  Uh,
• 45:24
  so that is a fascinating Stranger Trades episode because,
• 45:27
  man,
• 45:28
  I,
• 45:28
  I could see this happening.
• 45:29
  This is why I won't do any of this stuff.
• 45:31
  I didn't,
• 45:31
  I,
• 45:31
  I have friends who are like super into AI.
• 45:33
  They're like,
• 45:33
  oh gosh,
• 45:33
  you know,
• 45:34
  all you have to do is,
• 45:34
  is a program a bot.
• 45:35
  It'll buy every time this happens,
• 45:37
  blah,
• 45:37
  blah,
• 45:37
  blah.
• 45:38
  I don't want anything to do with it.
• 45:39
  I,
• 45:39
  all it means I'm gonna wake up in my morning and,
• 45:41
  and my entire account's gonna be empty,
• 45:43
  and I'm not gonna even be able to understand or explain what happened.
• 45:47
  Use your mind.
• 45:49
  There are people with millions and millions of dollars,
• 45:51
  giant tech companies that are building these bots for Morgan Stanley right now,
• 45:56
  probably.
• 45:57
  I don't know that you're gonna be able to compete with that.
• 45:59
  Maybe you will,
• 45:59
  maybe you won't.
• 46:01
  But what you do have,
• 46:02
  that is your advantage,
• 46:04
  is what's between your two ears.
• 46:07
  That's there,
• 46:07
  that's real.
• 46:08
  That's you.
• 46:09
  You've,
• 46:10
  you've lived in this world.
• 46:11
  You have a life experience that can tell you something about
• 46:14
  what is going on in the world.
• 46:15
  And,
• 46:15
  you know,
• 46:16
  look,
• 46:16
  the sports example is more of a technical example.
• 46:18
  It's,
• 46:19
  you know,
• 46:19
  probably not what we're talking about.
• 46:20
  It's not the thing that I focus on when we talk about prediction markets.
• 46:24
  But I will say there are a lot of opportunities
• 46:26
  where you can look at this and say,
• 46:27
  you know what,
• 46:28
  I,
• 46:28
  they might be telling me this with other spreadsheets,
• 46:30
  they might be telling me this with other AI bots,
• 46:32
  they might be telling me this with all
• 46:34
  of their deep,
• 46:34
  deep supposed research and all their understanding about the world,
• 46:37
  but I've seen this happen before.
• 46:39
  And I don't buy it.
• 46:41
  And when you can find those opportunities,
• 46:42
  a lot of times you can do very,
• 46:44
  very well.
• 46:44
  But be careful,
• 46:45
  set limits.
• 46:46
  If you're just getting into prediction markets,
• 46:48
  welcome.
• 46:49
  Uh,
• 46:49
  you're not late,
• 46:50
  you're early.
• 46:51
  And you're understanding this,
• 46:53
  but make sure when,
• 46:53
  as you get in there,
• 46:55
  realize you probably will make a few mistakes the first few times you
• 46:57
  get on and you might lose a little bit here and there.
• 47:00
  Uh,
• 47:00
  we've,
• 47:00
  you know,
• 47:00
  made videos about trying to warn you away from those mistakes.
• 47:03
  We've got the,
• 47:04
  uh,
• 47:04
  16 constitutional amendments,
• 47:06
  uh,
• 47:07
  that can help guide you.
• 47:08
  We've got a series of videos called Prediction Prediction Predictable 101,
• 47:11
  uh,
• 47:12
  that is,
• 47:12
  uh,
• 47:13
  coming out here pretty soon.
• 47:14
  We're doing,
• 47:14
  uh,
• 47:15
  we're in the middle of processing those.
• 47:16
  So,
• 47:17
  you know,
• 47:17
  making sure you understand where you're going and what you're doing
• 47:20
  and just limiting risk because you probably will screw up.
• 47:23
  I screwed up many,
• 47:23
  many times,
• 47:24
  uh,
• 47:25
  blew it over and over and over again.
• 47:26
  It's just the truth.
• 47:28
  Uh,
• 47:28
  so I'm gonna try to steer you away from as many of those as we can
• 47:31
  and,
• 47:31
  uh,
• 47:32
  keep you,
• 47:32
  uh,
• 47:33
  hopefully doing really,
• 47:34
  really well in these markets.
• 47:35
  We've done well so far and we hope to continue that here in the coming weeks.
• 47:38
  Next week,
• 47:38
  we'll have,
• 47:38
  uh,
• 47:39
  we've got a big debate.
• 47:40
  It might be a fun mention market on South Carolina on Monday night.
• 47:44
  Uh,
• 47:44
  the 5 states that I mentioned come up on Tuesday night.
• 47:47
  There's another state on,
• 47:48
  uh,
• 47:48
  Tennessee on Thursday,
• 47:49
  I think Hawaii on Saturday.
• 47:51
  So a great week
• 47:52
  of,
• 47:52
  uh,
• 47:53
  election stuff next week,
• 47:54
  and,
• 47:55
  uh,
• 47:55
  we've got some great stuff coming up that I really think you're going to enjoy.
• 47:58
  So join us
• 47:59
  one more time at Predictable show.
• 48:01
  It's free to sign up.
• 48:02
  You get all the information,
• 48:02
  you get articles,
• 48:03
  you get the show,
• 48:04
  you get clips,
• 48:05
  you get all sorts of stuff there.
• 48:06
  I try to answer as many questions as I can.
• 48:08
  As well,
• 48:09
  uh,
• 48:09
  there's also a,
• 48:10
  uh,
• 48:10
  paid subscription that you can get involved with as
• 48:12
  well if you want a little bit more detail.
• 48:13
  We'd love if you did that.
• 48:15
  A lot of people are signing up.
• 48:16
  We've been growing.
• 48:17
  We're the number 4,
• 48:19
  show on rising,
• 48:20
  uh,
• 48:20
  uh,
• 48:21
  when it comes to,
• 48:21
  it's a chart on sub stack,
• 48:23
  uh,
• 48:23
  and in the business category,
• 48:24
  we're all the way up to number 4 now.
• 48:26
  A lot of people are signing up.
• 48:27
  A lot of people are getting involved in this.
• 48:29
  Uh,
• 48:29
  so if you're gonna trade these markets,
• 48:30
  I think it's well worth your time and well worth,
• 48:33
  uh,
• 48:33
  your,
• 48:34
  uh,
• 48:34
  your,
• 48:35
  uh,
• 48:35
  finance,
• 48:35
  uh,
• 48:36
  financial,
• 48:36
  uh,
• 48:37
  you know,
• 48:37
  involvement.
• 48:38
  In,
• 48:38
  in,
• 48:38
  uh,
• 48:39
  the subscription.
• 48:40
  Hopefully,
• 48:40
  you feel the same way.
• 48:41
  OK.
• 48:41
  Uh,
• 48:41
  that's all I have for,
• 48:43
  uh,
• 48:43
  tonight.
• 48:44
  I want to make sure that we,
• 48:45
  uh,
• 48:46
  we,
• 48:46
  uh,
• 48:47
  you check out PredictableShow.com just because I
• 48:49
  also post updates during the weekend and,
• 48:51
  and stuff.
• 48:52
  If I see some good opportunities,
• 48:53
  I'll,
• 48:53
  I'll throw some up there as well.
• 48:55
  Thanks so much for joining us and we will see you next time.